# ![@Heady_Creek Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1953494042588729347.png) @Heady_Creek Heady Creek Research

Heady Creek Research posts on X about in the, business, $dks, $anf the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1953494042588729347/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953494042588729347/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +515%
- [--] Month [------] +438%
- [--] Months [------] +3,097%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1953494042588729347/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953494042588729347/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +59%
- [--] Month [--] +77%
- [--] Months [---] +1,614%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1953494042588729347/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953494042588729347/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +16%
- [--] Month [---] +76%
- [--] Months [---] +2,030%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1953494042588729347/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1953494042588729347/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  67% [finance](/list/finance)  29% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  22% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  20% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  11% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  6% [gaming](/list/gaming)  2% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  #1764 [currencies](/list/currencies)  1% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[in the](/topic/in-the) 12%, [business](/topic/business) 11%, [$dks](/topic/$dks) 9%, [$anf](/topic/$anf) 8%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 8%, [ai](/topic/ai) 8%, [$nke](/topic/$nke) 7%, [$hsy](/topic/$hsy) 7%, [$onon](/topic/$onon) 7%, [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) 6%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@headycreek](/creator/undefined) [@rsandler21969](/creator/undefined) [@mattjmcclintock](/creator/undefined) [@sammykoppelman](/creator/undefined) [@citronresearch](/creator/undefined) [@fleetwoodcap](/creator/undefined) [@pitchthepm](/creator/undefined) [@curtissliwa](/creator/undefined) [@nygovcuomo](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@therealreals](/creator/undefined) [@adamwyden](/creator/undefined) [@danielsloeb1](/creator/undefined) [@mariogabelli](/creator/undefined) [@ptjofficial](/creator/undefined) [@davidein](/creator/undefined) [@stockjabber](/creator/undefined) [@benbonning](/creator/undefined) [@fleetwood_cap](/creator/undefined) [@zacktanzx](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[DarkShield Games Studio (DKS)](/topic/$dks) [Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)](/topic/$anf) [Nike Inc (NKE)](/topic/$nke) [Hershey Co (HSY)](/topic/$hsy) [On Holding AG (ONON)](/topic/$onon) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [Roblox Corp. (RBLX)](/topic/$rblx) [American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)](/topic/$aeo) [Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)](/topic/$urbn) [Maplebear Inc. (CART)](/topic/$cart) [Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)](/topic/$bby) [Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)](/topic/$pins) [Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)](/topic/$rost) [Gap Inc (GAP)](/topic/$gap) [Foot Locker, Inc. (FL)](/topic/$fl) [Reddit, Inc.  (RDDT)](/topic/$rddt) [Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)](/topic/$gnrc) [Target Corporation (TGT)](/topic/$tgt) [Wormhole (W)](/topic/$w) [Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)](/topic/$mtn) [Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)](/topic/$modg) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)](/topic/$aso) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Rivian Automotive, Inc.  (RIVN)](/topic/$rivn) [Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Inc. (KNX)](/topic/$knx) [TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)](/topic/$tjx) [aelf (ELF)](/topic/$elf) [Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH)](/topic/$celh) [SpaceN (SN)](/topic/$sn) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [Levi Strauss & Co. Class A Common Stock (LEVI)](/topic/$levi) [Kontoor Brands, Inc. Common Stock (KTB)](/topic/$ktb) [MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ)](/topic/$mdlz) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Earlier this year we recommended clients take a cautious approach to speciality apparel companies with significant exposure to baggy or relaxed denim. The trends are shifting - [----] is borrowing from [----] trends specifically skinny jeans. $ANF $GAP and $AEO have abandoned skinny silhouettes almost entirely - $LEVI $KTB and $URBN are the few names in our universe positively exposed to the shift in trend. But its not just jeans that will change in style - the shift to skinny has implications for footwear and apparel as well. Chunky shoes have dominated but that could change making room for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2020973540732752310)  2026-02-09T21:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"After speaking with management we think there is more downside than upside in $ASO and prefer $DKS for exposure to specialty retail focused on athletic and outdoor. The $NKE and #Jordan tailwinds were material to the quarter but the data is already trailing off. The latest checks at $FL suggest inventory is moving out of the system and further (material) discounting is not likely. Still $ASO will enjoy these brand specific tailwinds into Q1. $MTN positioning was bearish as pass data was weak in both count and profile. However management indicated pass units were down but $ value was up which"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2000256669524115617)  2025-12-14T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$AMZN is closing its Fresh and Go stores converting some to Whole Foods banners. $CART is selling off we presume because investors view this move by $AMZN as a sign that they are focusing their efforts in the space on grocery delivery only. We think that the decision by $AMZN to close its stores is a sign that the brand as powerful as it may be to the consumer does not resonate yet with perishables fresh proteins and produce. The sell-off is an opportunity to add to our $CART position. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016237074198720841 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016237074198720841"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2016237074198720841)  2026-01-27T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Our $DECK write-up presented to clients 12/1 and 12/30 (also mention $NKE): DECK Write-Up We are recommending a long position in DECK makers of Hoka and Ugg shoes. Hoka: channel inventory is tight and discounts are minimal compared to peers Nike and On Running. Ugg: new silhouettes like the Lowmel sneaker are in high demand with stock-outs reported across wholesale and DTC channels making promotions unnecessary. We are also observing strong sell-through at new wholesale relationships such as Dicks. Given lack of promotions and high price-points for Ugg this holiday season we think analysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2016991255218041121)  2026-01-29T21:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The results at $DECK support positive revisions at both brands. #PiperJaffray downgraded the stock on a disappointing TAM for #Hoka which we feel is an unfounded claim - today's results guidance and commentary are supportive of an expanding global addressable market. #UGG has the opportunity to be a multi-seasonal brand thanks to new franchises such as the #Lowmel. We think $8 in FY [----] EPS and a $120 floor valuation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017056765485916535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017056765485916535"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2017056765485916535)  2026-01-30T02:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wonder how much money $HOOD makes from over-charging people for out-of-the-money puts I would imagine that if given the choice to short stock vs. buy puts some (rational) traders would not bother with options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2018347490387325035)  2026-02-02T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Earlier this year we recommended to clients to take a long position in $SONO and we continue to recommend owning shares. We believe that the companys operational improvements over the last [--] months have been ignored by Wall Street. The company is on pace to take out over $100 million of costs annualized thanks to an organizational rework under new leadership. The company has weathered tariffs and continues to maintain industry leading gross margins in the mid to high 40s percent. Despite a growing and profitable business with no debt SONO continues to be valued by most sell side analysts on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2018791638508667162)  2026-02-03T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We believe investors should derisk into the $HSY print as positioning is unequivocally bullish. $MDLZ results reflect increased competition from chocolate but for $HSY specifically we think the material inflection comes over q2/q3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2019137602746741090)  2026-02-04T19:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"On 1/14/2026 we posted on $HSY pulling from our year-end letter to clients. Today $HSY reported incredible numbers and a massive guide for [----]. We are surprised at how strong a guide the company is coming out with already for the year suggesting our numbers could be too low (we were over $8/share in december when the street was at $6.50). Staples overall are re-rating thanks to a rotation out of tech. We are valuing $HSY at 30x the high-end of [----] adj. EPS or $255/share. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019401714034491789 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019401714034491789"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2019401714034491789)  2026-02-05T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We also think investors selling $SONO on weak consumer electronics data for $BBY is a mistake. We believe $SONO has largely pulled out of the retailer and shifted product to $WMT and $COST where they are seeing better foot traffic and a variety of income cohorts responding positively to product. We have an in-depth report for those interested. @Heady_Creek is recommending investors approach $BBY cautiously. The data continues to disappoint with weakness across all categories: appliances consumer electronics and now entertainment. Appliances category is particularly concerning given a very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2008567020464284139)  2026-01-06T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BBY's pivot to Pokemon trading cards was intended to drive traffic to the store. They make 10-20% margins on selling TCG's at MSRP diluting the company's reported margin in the low 20's. Based on our research $BBY has significantly reduced the budget for its paid affiliate marketing campaigns - the announcement made in April of [----] has continued into [----]. $BBY's strategy it seems is to draw traffic to its marketplace where third parties can list products that $BBY may or may not sell in-store. This has created confusion at the store-level and (obvious) channel conflict. We think the brand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011811170764595665)  2026-01-15T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Fleetwood_Cap Out of the [--] denim styles featured on the Abercrombie app only [--] are skinny - the modern skinny and the ultra skinny. If you want to give them credit for plus size skinny styles then youre at [--] out of [--]. You can find these styles buried in the back of the store"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021207874584629564)  2026-02-10T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yesterday we covered our $PINS short. We remain weary of up-talkers We sold our remaining holdings in $W after a great run. We bought shares earlier this year when we saw the company make a strategic shift in how it markets focusing less on driving organic traffic to their site and app and instead letting social sites like $PINS carry the We sold our remaining holdings in $W after a great run. We bought shares earlier this year when we saw the company make a strategic shift in how it markets focusing less on driving organic traffic to their site and app and instead letting social sites like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2019036321332015304)  2026-02-04T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This morning $MTN updated its forecast for revenue and EBITDA for the current fiscal year. @Heady_Creek called out Vail Mountain Resorts in its year end letter citing the obvious: a mountain of debt a terrible start to the ski year an unsustainable dividend policy and an inability to optimally price the #EPIC Pass resulting in constant price increases and decreasing retention of its most valuable pass cohort. We all know what bad timing is when it comes to a trade but for the #Jefferies analyst to call this a clearing event right after upgrading the stock.it's not how we a fiduciary would"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011896532509847730)  2026-01-15T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"According to $GS research $BBY and $DKS are both crowded shorts. We understand why investors are bearish $DKS - the thesis is that the company bought $FL at the peak of athletic footwear growth and that post acquisition they are too levered to the category at roughly 50% of revenue coming from footwear. Our proprietary work suggests that while the growth in athletic footwear did pick up after COVID over the long-term the growth has normalized. The sector is experiencing a potential shift in market share with $NKE returning and taking shelf space from $ONON and $DECK. On the other hand $BBY is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2013625023790030987)  2026-01-20T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RBLX selling off on $GOOG release feels like a buying opportunity especially after Wedbush and others cut numbers. I'm not sure these analysts understand how to model bookings and monetization. Below is the 2-yr stack of what we believe to be the two cohorts within bookings that are fastest to monetize. We think January was a particularly strong month and one against easy comps relative to the rest of the year. Even if management guides conservatively we believe that Q1 will be trending above the full year for bookings and EBITDA. DAUs are likely to slow - that's ok. $RBLX is entering a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2017269922976374913)  2026-01-30T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RBLX guiding to a much higher bookings number than we would have expected for the year and the Q1 guide leaves room for a beat. We expect DAU growth to slow and bookings and engagement to continue to accelerate. $RBLX selling off on $GOOG release feels like a buying opportunity especially after Wedbush and others cut numbers. I'm not sure these analysts understand how to model bookings and monetization. Below is the 2-yr stack of what we believe to be the two cohorts within bookings https://t.co/8mU0zxpdS9 $RBLX selling off on $GOOG release feels like a buying opportunity especially after"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019525505930903672)  2026-02-05T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RDDT seems like a steal at 30x forward earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019525846634225779)  2026-02-05T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In [----] $CVNA acquired ADESA a physical auction and salvage business from KAR Global. At the time the company justified the acquisition as a way to "survive all economic scenarios" - remember in [----] the industry was facing a severe slowdown after a COVID-driven surge in demand and against almost no new supply of autos record high prices for used vehicles. Fast forward to today and $CVNA is now facing what many to believe the beginning of the end as DriveTime $CVNA's financing wing comes under scrutiny. While we don't believe that $CVNA is about to go under we do see ADESA's roughly 60"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2020496944670429676)  2026-02-08T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RDDT seems to be the only social platform addressing "bottom of funnel" advertising. Here are some quotes from the last call: "First performance ads outperformed and revenue from lower funnel objectives such as purchase conversions and app installs doubled year-over-year as we see the benefits of our investments in ML and new ad formats like shopping ads start to pay off.In Q4 click volume in the mid funnel grew over 60% and lower funnel conversion volume doubled year-over-year.And then finally I'll say we -- with the large customers we've typically started at the top of the funnel in a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2020507008739201343)  2026-02-08T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Just finished recording my first podcast as a guest on @PitchThePM with my ex-colleague Doug Garber. We discussed $HSY $BBY and skinny jeans. Stay tuned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2020617786599645415)  2026-02-08T21:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Shout out to @MattJMcClintock for helping us gain awareness. Great guy great analyst"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2020993267916280171)  2026-02-09T22:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$LUXE should be well positioned to take advantage of the weakness in multi-brand luxury wholesalers like #SAKS. The company creates money cant buy experiences that are often copied by the fashion houses themselves to lure and keep their highest value clients. If the company can achieve its medium term targets then this is at least a double over the next year. We do caution investors not to model margins much higher than 10% long term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021212524935250020)  2026-02-10T13:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If you are following the investment advice of a retail stock promoter who claims to have written calls in a stock theyve been pumping then we have a bridge to sell you. $HOOD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021387619909894426)  2026-02-11T00:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GNRC misses top and bottom line but its all good - they will be riding the AI Hypersaler Datacenter wavemeanwhile less than 10% of single family homes in the U.S. valued at $1mm or more have a home standby generator. Pro-tip: focus on your core especially when youre the category leader and the market remains significantly under penetrated. For a group of presumably conservative midwesterners this management team chases trends like a teenage girl at the mall. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021572087895273563 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021572087895273563"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021572087895273563)  2026-02-11T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GNRC notes are coming out positive now that the stock is up. The core business is doing $4 in EPS. We calculate the optionality of AI datacenters as 75% or more of the value of $GNRC currently. Thats not optionality - thats overvalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021623623308759200)  2026-02-11T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There are plenty of growth stocks selling off that we find attractive $RDDT being one of them. But you will never see us apply PEG ratio math to EBITDA like we see many do on this platform - trading at 20x EV/EBITDA but growing EBITDA at 40% is not what adult investors say around the dinner table. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021697000748540083 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021697000748540083"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021697000748540083)  2026-02-11T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We are generalists so forgive us if we dont consistently apply the Rule of [--] to establish valuation. Having studied the origins of this methodology we feel it is incorrect to use this rule when valuing a mature public company. The metric is arbitrary and archaic concocted by VCs to justify absurd valuations of SaaS businesses with no consideration for potential disintermediation. Good luck to those following this rule (or to those who blindly follow others who apply this rule)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021760339491102785)  2026-02-12T01:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The upgrade on $LUXE from $JPM is great but we wonder if there are strings attached like the potential for an offering given how much equity remains in the hands of the original sponsor. Unlocking supply of stock would be great long term as it would attract more investors. We will look to reduce our position and re-engage lower. For now we are taking some of our gains and treating our significant others using the #mytheresa app 😎"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021934030967472339)  2026-02-12T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CROX is a name we owned in the past and it was not fun. We had high hopes for #HeyDude gaining share in the high school/college/recently graduated cohort but based on the reported numbers and guidance we see that our positive outlook has failed to materialize. The stock is cheap and has been for years though now more than ever it feels like a value trap. More after the call. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021935252671758551 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021935252671758551"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021935252671758551)  2026-02-12T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We are just speculating but after this week we expect LPs to be pulling their money from certain emerging managers who are popular on this platform. Some of the names under pressure will eventually find a base and rebound likely after these firms liquidate their holdings. It sucks to watch but its the nature of this brutal business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2021974300345954803)  2026-02-12T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We were going to post on how the only types of investors who decide (and trade accordingly) that a business is worth 20-30% more or less overnight are those making small bets in small lots. No hedge fund decides certainly the day of earnings to sell a position down 30% unless they are facing immediate redemptions and even then the process is orderly. Most wait to speak to management even if it is a week after the event before making a material investment decision around a position that has moved 20% or more. Retail pods and bucket shops are usually behind these moves. Brad does incredible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2022026858301124654)  2026-02-12T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Two companies we are paying attention to after hours: $RIVN and $CART. We've posted on $CART before and feel like the $AMZN threat is over-stated. For $RIVN we know this is a stock firmly in the unprofitable tech category however we see several positives: [--]. The roll-out of [------] $AMZN delivery vehicles to support their grocery initiatives. [--]. The increase in interest for the #R1S truck now the only true 3-row SUV from an only-electric car manufacturer ($TSLA abandoning the #ModelX and we don't consider the #ModelY a 3-row option for soccer moms). [--]. The release of the #R2. [--]. The potential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2022049883734036786)  2026-02-12T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PINS failing as a DR advertising platform which means demand-response aka bottom of funnel ad budgets need to find a home - $RDDT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2022092623817891877)  2026-02-12T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DECK guidance and commentary suggests legacy wholesale relationships like $DKS are holding back on re-orders into holiday. We think estimates are too high for all footwear names and the space likely mean reverts over the next [--] months. DTC weakness driven by shopper preferences shifting back to in person - we heard his from specialty apparel earnings a month ago. As real wage growth stagnates or worse declines cheap pastimes like going to the mall become popular again. The footwear brands that benefit most are Nike and Adidas given their entrenched positions at most multi-brand wholesalers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1981728761356722412)  2025-10-24T14:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"On 9/18 we posted that we were cycling out of $ANF and into $GAP given relative valuations incoming data and positioning. Today we are reversing this trade. We have reviewed the most recently updated data for $ANF and see revenues and comps stabilizing across both Hollister and Abercrombie brands. At 7x earnings downside is limited even with a slight negative revision to their outlook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1981730136501182472)  2025-10-24T14:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Here is a recap of ideas weve pitched over the last month: Short $KNX - the miss and guide below street was as expected. Bulls will say that the data is about to inflect bears will say that the truckload cycle remains weak that prior cycles are not as applicable to investing as today and that the exposure to a weakening LTL market will continue to pressure earnings. The stock is trading at the high end of its historical range implying that the expectation of a trough in earnings is already in the stock. A mid-cycle multiple applied to our estimate for next years EPS would see the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1981789009077580047)  2025-10-24T18:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Market volatility and uncertainty go hand-in-hand. So why are the November options of stocks like $SLG $VNO and $BN pricing in very little reaction to the #NYC mayoral election $BN is trading more like a bank/asset manager than a property manager but $SLG and $VNO are interesting contrarian ideas we are currently developing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1982797760408502361)  2025-10-27T13:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"On 9/16 @Heady_Creek posted our long position in $ROST which we continue to hold today. Todays outperformance came with above average volume and should not be ignored. The valuation remains compelling relative to peers $BURL and $TJX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1982980350830883020)  2025-10-28T01:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$GNRC used to focus on home standby generators a business where they are the leaders with at least 20% EBITDA margins. Now they are mired with acquisitions that are unprofitable where $GNRC is one of several players with no discernible lead or market dominance. Focusing on large scale data centers and hyperscalers is nice if you like long sales cycles that lead to elongated backlog conversion and terms like lumpy being used on future conference calls. To say that the outage environment is not supportive is outrageous - there have been no shortage of fires floods hurricanes storms as well as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1983552460053422230)  2025-10-29T15:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$EAT is pulling back on advertising spend citing the returns on mediums such as TV were not there in September and October. This is prudent given a cautious consumer and it makes us cautious on $PINS an advertising platform historically associated almost entirely with home furnishings and renovation ideas. Over the last [--] years we have observed a material increase in (1) growth in new categories such as food and beverage beauty and wellness and apparel on the platform (2) a significant increase in ad load for larger brands like Wayfair and Amazon (3) MAUs specifically in the US showing signs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1983578051444109822)  2025-10-29T16:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The price-cost spread for $HSY is about to blow-out - next year is looking like $8 or more in EPS. There is some potential for upside is CEO-speak for your numbers are too low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1983875811271663627)  2025-10-30T12:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There has to be a role for @CurtisSliwa in @NYGovCuomo vision for #NYC. Hes clearly passionate about the city and the safety of its citizens. Perhaps he can lead a safety audit work with the #nypd and local interest groups and go down as a political martyr even a hero. The two should come together and do whats best for the city that they both love. It would also be an incredible display of bi-partisan selflessness something seldom seen in politics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1984723048251990150)  2025-11-01T20:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Over the weekend we reviewed transcripts of calls we missed. One is $CHRW a name we didnt own into the print because we were concerned the company was over-earning in their non-core businesses. We were right but the execution in core brokerage is too good to ignore. As a human-heavy business brokerage is using AI and agentic commerce resulting in massive increases in productivity. The company warned that productivity improvements driven by AI will not be linear but for now this is a standout winner in transports. Share gains in truckload and less-than-truckload by $CHRW are coming at the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1985344873801654309)  2025-11-03T13:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Kalshi So then why have we observed a change in odds AGAINST Cuomo over the last week Granted this is an immature market that seems manipulated by a few whale traders but if these odds were mark-to-market they would be much higher for Cuomofeels like a Michael Burry moment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1985406763181420597)  2025-11-03T18:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$SONO reports tomorrow and we are still holders though we are not carrying a large position into the print - its unlikely the company guides materially above the street for next year they have every reason to guide the holidays conservatively and they want to keep beating and raising numbers. This will be a great example of a stock that looks fairly valued/expensive but is actually trading at under 10x forward P/E"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1985849694677811689)  2025-11-04T23:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$SONO first take is a strong print with a balance sheet that is much leaner going into holiday [----] vs last year. Positive EBITDA in Q4 their seasonally 2nd weakest quarter caps off a year where they were effectively EBITDA positive each quarter which hasnt happened in years. Guidance will come on the call - we expect conservatism though the inventory balance could suggest either a strong sell-in for wholesale accounts likely not in estimates or an expectation for a weaker consumer (plus no new product launches for holiday) also not in estimates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986059666879615215)  2025-11-05T13:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"An observation: $RBLX is oversold just as engagement in my house seems to be accelerating thanks to this game Steal the Brainrot and we are hearing this game is already being considered as a franchise outside of $RBLX. Engagement drives #ARPU which drives stock price at least for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986165176287318263)  2025-11-05T20:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$ELF results show the cracks in beauty that we called months ago. We are short $ELF though we did not carry full risk into the print as we were unsure how the company would account for contribution from recent acquisitions. We will likely cover tomorrow. @Heady_Creek has been short $TGT since Q4 [----] when we began to see cracks in the beauty category which over the last [--] fiscal years has been the standout growth category for $TGT. We remain short as we do not think consensus is accurately modeling comp headwinds through Q2 FY @Heady_Creek has been short $TGT since Q4 [----] when we began to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986212574195531998)  2025-11-05T23:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Is everyone on here long $CELH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986415974338228243)  2025-11-06T12:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"We will have more after we speak with management but we think they sandbagged Q4. $SN We posted our thoughts on $SN earlier this month - todays move came with significant trading volume and should not be dismissed as just a bounce of an oversold stock. As we mentioned the comps for Q4 are easier and the integration of both brands under one website has led to We posted our thoughts on $SN earlier this month - todays move came with significant trading volume and should not be dismissed as just a bounce of an oversold stock. As we mentioned the comps for Q4 are easier and the integration of both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986450167617204520)  2025-11-06T15:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"We have previously posted on $MODG - we think this is ultimately a loser. However we think this quarter they beat comps at #TopGolf. Estimates have come in meaningfully for Q4. The CIO of Providence stepped down from the board in August they will likely sell shares before year end. However the introduction of pass sales at #TopGolf is not accounted for in estimates and the company is likely not going to accrue for the lawsuit citing their appeal. Travis Matthew has seen a resurgence at key wholesale accounts. We expect to see one last pump before we all agree that this was a poorly timed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986511903544545297)  2025-11-06T19:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If this chart doesnt make you think of this scene then i know how long youve been in the $nvda $msft $crwv $orcl $intl #thebigshort https://youtu.be/A25EUhZGBwssi=EbICWqqqjf2iVWmF https://youtu.be/A25EUhZGBwssi=EbICWqqqjf2iVWmF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1986599828483105038)  2025-11-07T01:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"We have posted on $CART which has been a battleground stock. Having survived a severe de-rating todays results prove a resilient business model and therefore represent a great entry point as we look to build our position. We have done extensive research on the threat from $AMZN and do not see much if any material overlap of $AMZN grocery delivery and $CART. Advertising broadly has taken a hit but grocery is holding up better than any other category"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1987872638253805588)  2025-11-10T13:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$REAL is a name we own into tonights print. Valuation is tricky because they are experiencing growth ahead of the industry and peers but they will soon have to invest to support new fast-growing segments of the business such as their physical retail presence and Buy-It-Now offering. Short interest is at an all-time high and we hear that the pushback is consistency of profit margin expansion - if margins are the concern we are not worried. We think users and top line metrics need to pick up to justify what is a mid-to-high teens EV/EBITDA multiple on our bull case for FY 2027"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1987902528055394602)  2025-11-10T15:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$ONON has de-rated materially from a peak of [--] P/E though at the same time $DECK was trading at 26x (peaked at 60x as well) and is now trading at 12x. So for those who think this stock has de-rated enough think again especially if management has to pull back on medium term targets. Looking at $DKS sell-through its clear how much $ONON benefited from that first wave of business in [----] and how their comps are materially harder than peers $NKE and $ADDYY: We have been bearish on the athleisure space including athletic footwear for most of the year as the industry has just experience [--] years of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1987914217081430399)  2025-11-10T16:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$REAL Margins came in above expectations growth in active buyers is impressive but comes with an increase in marketing spend. They are assuming incremental leverage on this spend based on the guide. This could squeeze 25mm shares short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988004160856301663)  2025-11-10T22:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"More after we catch up with management but this quarter was everything we discussed and more. Now is the challenge of convincing investors that an expensive stock is cheap. $REAL is not only taking share from the primary market and peers in the secondary market it is now becoming a legitimate player in the fine jewelry market. Our investment in $REAL led to a new investment that we will discuss tomorrow. Hint: they are behind the productivity gains at $REAL. Great job by the team at @Heady_Creek"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988028470882902515)  2025-11-10T23:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Heady_Creek came across this post in July and it's crazy that it still has less than [----] views. It lays out how Agentic Commerce is improving the productivity levels of sales agents at $REAL and we think $CRM is powering the improvement in productivity at many businesses yet it's stock remains a major laggard. When these #AgenticAI contracts come up for renewal they will all be renewed and at higher rates. None of this seems accounted for in forward estimates and yet $CRM is in the 4th year of a massive de-rating. We are looking for companies like $CRM that are building #AI tools that are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988291761710448689)  2025-11-11T17:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"We just watched an interview with Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman and $DKS Founder Ed Stack who was wearing the new $NKE Pegasus Premium. $NKE $ONON $ADDYY $DECK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988299460510912658)  2025-11-11T17:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"We are not short $ONON into the print though we are regretting the decision after thinking about the following: [--]. The $DKS comp not to mention the CEO of $DKS rocking $NKE. [--]. The muted response to apparel and technical apparel is becoming increasingly crowded - I think I just saw #Alo launch a tech jacket. [--]. Justifying $ONON's multiple relative to $NKE - this is a mistake because $NKE's multiple already embeds a significant turnaround and inflection in EPS growth. $ONON should be pegged to $DECK which would put their P/E multiple closer to 22x forward or a mid to high $20's stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988367292271333506)  2025-11-11T22:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Our updated price-cost spread for $HSY has margins coming in well ahead of the street over the next few quarters. $8 in [----] $200 stock. The price-cost spread for $HSY is about to blow-out - next year is looking like $8 or more in EPS. There is some potential for upside is CEO-speak for your numbers are too low. The price-cost spread for $HSY is about to blow-out - next year is looking like $8 or more in EPS. There is some potential for upside is CEO-speak for your numbers are too low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988627717630169541)  2025-11-12T15:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$ONON - I posted last night my regret for not shorting the stock into the print so let's call this "a good miss." But our concerns remain as the North American business has slowed dramatically and ex-price increases is now a high single digit growth business with tougher comps at $DKS in Q4 and into Q1 (really tough comps through Q2 2026). The Chinese data which we admit is not robust and is not something we underwrite with confidence in our analysis underestimated the performance - this was the reason for the beat and raise the magnitude of the beat that $ONON put up in APAC. The company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1988654567890760100)  2025-11-12T17:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"We are bearish $HD based on worsening data against tougher comps commodity deflation specifically around lumber and slowing job momentum due to anti-immigration policies and their impact to the pool of available workers. We think the stock de-rates to 20-22x and we are modeling $15 for next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1990543343361622247)  2025-11-17T22:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Watching the Eddie Murphy documentary and who wouldve thought we both have said the same thing about kids: if you put your children first you never make a bad decision. Ive told friends who are having terrible days in the market to go home play with their kids and know that in that moment you can do no wrong and no matter how badly you screwed up that day in that moment you are at the pinnacle of success. And I swore I wouldnt get preachy on this damn thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1990588211534368781)  2025-11-18T01:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Turns out there is a buyer for #Topgolf. Just that they will only buy enough for $MODG to no longer have to consolidate the debt on their balance sheet. As expected the beat on comps at #topgolf is coming from new initiatives like pass sales. There is no update on the sale/spin because there is no buyer. No mention of the lawsuit and damages awarded against the company no disclosure in the 10-Q either. We will flip our position As expected the beat on comps at #topgolf is coming from new initiatives like pass sales. There is no update on the sale/spin because there is no buyer. No mention of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1990802968019677296)  2025-11-18T15:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TGT: we are below the street for Q3 and Q4. Drivers to our below-consensus call include weakness in beauty specifically mass as well as an increase in shrink as we have observed higher theft reporting nationally. The category with the easiest comp is hardlines and peers are reporting significant weakness in hardline sales. The new CEO is yet to set/reset guidance and we think that the company needs to consider a complete revamp of their business. We have heard rumors of PE looking to acquire the company for the real estate and while we understand there are differences between the boxes at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1990882488575492110)  2025-11-18T20:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Did $TGT think investors wouldnt notice this dumpster fire because were so distracted by the open AI partnership A master class in public disclosure deception As previewed target is about to initiate a major revamp of their store network as well as the experience in store. [----] will be a transition year at best and I expect earnings to be down material next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1991109097891025115)  2025-11-19T11:39Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"I am tempted to put on a long-dated put spread on $NVDA because of the interaction I had last night at a dinner with friends. I joked that everyone in the restaurant was in a good mood because they own $NVDA and that scares me and immediately two people said "Well it's ok for you to be wrong" The meer expression of concern over the crowding in the stock was enough to set off these individuals. I attempted to defend myself but the fangs were out and I was the ugly duckling (even though I probably owned more $NVDA than most at the table). "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1991547590303686990)  2025-11-20T16:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Right on $ROST wrong on $GAP. Comps at #OldNavy and #BananaRepublic were very impressive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1991622791276445833)  2025-11-20T21:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Given the strength in comps and the spread in multiple between $TJX and $ROST (shown below) I would argue my multiple is conservative: my $ROST pitch from June [--] 2025: ROST: Current Price [------] Price by 12/31: [---] based on 21* [----] in EPS next year Ross Stores (ROST) is a close-out discount retailer that operates under two banners: Ross Stores and DeeDees Discount. The company recently reported earnings my $ROST pitch from June [--] 2025: ROST: Current Price [------] Price by 12/31: [---] based on 21* [----] in EPS next year Ross Stores (ROST) is a close-out discount retailer that operates under"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1991627854808027635)  2025-11-20T22:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Reading this $RICK and having shared a few meetings with @adam_wyden I believe the deal: [--]. Allows #ADW to mark-up the value of the position and improve the funds returns (on paper) [--]. Allows $RICK to retire the shares at an effective cash cost of $16.60 per share assuming they never pay back the $22mm in seller financing [--]. Keeps lap dance pricing stable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1992235535117492584)  2025-11-22T14:15Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$ANF Will be interesting to see how the market values a brand with two banners that are stabilizing in the 3-7% comp range. We think its worth more than 7x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1993011884526805138)  2025-11-24T17:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I am selling out of my position in $ANF. The stock is fairly valued and now risks the negative reaction to a potential announcement of the CEO stepping down. $ANF Will be interesting to see how the market values a brand with two banners that are stabilizing in the 3-7% comp range. We think its worth more than 7x. $ANF Will be interesting to see how the market values a brand with two banners that are stabilizing in the 3-7% comp range. We think its worth more than 7x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1993386697183445403)  2025-11-25T18:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$URBN is trading higher into tonights print suggesting some chasing or short covering. I am surprised that there are shorts in this still - they got squeezed out on the last call as the #UrbanOutfitters brand is just beginning its turnaround. But the rest of the business is about to see a material negative revision in forward comp expectations. #FreePeople comps driven by #FPMovement are slowing as the athleisure space is crowded. #Anthropologie store growth looks peakish. #Nuuly has been a great outlet for these brands in the secondhand/overstock channel but that can only last for so long."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1993389391411401185)  2025-11-25T18:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$URBN is a great turnaround story at their namesake brand but the slowdown at #FreePeople is undeniable. The comps at #Anthropologie are at least 1000bps more difficult in December vs November so commentary on November being ahead of plan for comps is moot - November performance has to be ahead otherwise they would have given lower comp guidance for the quarter. The lack of margin flow through is being blamed on tariffs but we believe mix across banners is going to weigh on margins through H1 [----]. The EPS guide is light not out of conservatism (they crushed comps and modestly beat EPS in Q3)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1993674373262180424)  2025-11-26T13:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Heady_Creek has been long $AEO and will be into tonight's print despite the recent strength. We think that the surprise will be the strength in #Aerie brand comps which have benefited from foot traffic at colocated #AE brand stores. The strength in #ToddSnyder albeit small in numbers could influence the perception of the stock. Valuation is compelling if management can hint at sustainable strength in comps at all banners - $1.65-1.70 would then move to a base case scenario for next FY EPS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1995957196811620451)  2025-12-02T20:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"#Aerie comps 11% vs. expectations of 4%.guiding to Q4 comps of 8-9% vs. street at 2%. Margin expansion is disappointing at 90bps net of tariffs and BOW leverage but they are paying for two campaigns in denim so marketing spend is likely to decline from these levels. Overall pretty good but they did miss comps at #AE - the bears will say that they need to spend on marketing to sustain comps in the low to mid single digits. $AEO @Heady_Creek has been long $AEO and will be into tonight's print despite the recent strength. We think that the surprise will be the strength in #Aerie brand comps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1995965796305314278)  2025-12-02T21:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"From $AEO's Q2 earnings call: "Now turning to our outlook. The third quarter is off to a better start with quarter-to-date consolidated comps up in the mid-single digits. This includes a positive turn in the business as Jen noted as well as a very strong Labor Day weekend. With more than half of our quarter yet to go our outlook for the third quarter includes a low-single-digit increase in comparable sales." and then "Third quarter to date we're actually up slightly. We're up low single digits on AUR. The combination of AUR and traffic is driving the mid-single-digit increase as of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1996032683806261665)  2025-12-03T01:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Names reporting this week: $ASO: we think the data is weak ex hunting and outdoor categories that typically carry lower margins. comp expectations are modest though gross margin expansion is unlikely in Q3 or Q4 despite consensus modeling higher gross margins y/y in the back half. multiple seems compelling but it is actually trading at the high of the [--] year range. $RH: @Heady_Creek has been bearish $RH for the last [--] months and we have the write-ups to prove it. We contributed to the work of well known short sellers - we were the first fund to expose the disaster of self-dealing and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1998104493980778654)  2025-12-08T18:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"We are selling out of our remaining position in $AEO. The recovery in #Aerie driven by #Offline is well understood. From $AEO's Q2 earnings call: "Now turning to our outlook. The third quarter is off to a better start with quarter-to-date consolidated comps up in the mid-single digits. This includes a positive turn in the business as Jen noted as well as a very strong Labor Day weekend. From $AEO's Q2 earnings call: "Now turning to our outlook. The third quarter is off to a better start with quarter-to-date consolidated comps up in the mid-single digits. This includes a positive turn in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2000662882720038961)  2025-12-15T20:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Ideas: Long $NKE see evidence that $FL has successfully flushed out inventory of legacy styles. The multiple implies investors are already anticipating a turnaround if not this quarter then next quarter - if you're short the numbers have to be terrible and the guide has to be just as bad for the stock to de-rate. Short $KMX the data is terrible and the stock will remain "cheap" relative to its historic multiple. We've been buying $SONO and $RBLX. We think engagement is about to increase dramatically on $RBLX contrary to a recent report by #JPMorgan. We have an in-depth report on $SONO for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2001387330368589842)  2025-12-17T20:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Updated 3rd party data shows bookings and engagement well ahead of consensus. Lifting of Russian ban will improve optics around DAUs. When will advertisers realize that $RBLX is this generation's #Facebook $META Ideas: Long $NKE see evidence that $FL has successfully flushed out inventory of legacy styles. The multiple implies investors are already anticipating a turnaround if not this quarter then next quarter - if you're short the numbers have to be terrible and the guide has to be Ideas: Long $NKE see evidence that $FL has successfully flushed out inventory of legacy styles. The multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2001632535256936693)  2025-12-18T12:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"This doesn't sound good $CRM https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/after-laying-off-4000-employees-and-automating-with-ai-agents-salesforce-executives-admit-we-were-more-confident-about-/articleshow/126121875.cms We posted on $CRM positively but we are unlikely to carry a position into the print. As we've dug into the AI tools we've found that many clients are sitting on unused licenses and are unable to implement new applications into their workflow. We believe that investors are long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2003497477568364730)  2025-12-23T16:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Nice start to the year for @Heady_Creek clients. Heres what worked for us today: We recommended a short in $CRM after our research revealed disappointing RoI stats on key AI applications and our conclusion was corroborated by a local Times of India article which we posted several days ago. We have been recommending clients scale into $DECK as our proprietary survey work suggests #Hoka runners that came from $NKE are stickier than say $ONON runners. We are also ahead of the street on #UGG results. There are plenty of more successful ideas we generate for clients on a consistent basis. Please"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2007220063745593851)  2026-01-02T22:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Heady_Creek will be attending #ICR in a week and we can't wait. We have meetings with the management teams of every publicly traded company attending including $ONON $ANF $AEO $URBN $NKE and much more. We have been working on actionable ideas ahead of any preliminary announcements going into the event and later on this week we will post some of them for our followers. If you want to get ahead of this then reach out - we are adding new institutional and high net worth clients every day And if you've been following us our hit rate is close to 90%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2008174598089588933)  2026-01-05T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Heady_Creek is recommending investors approach $BBY cautiously. The data continues to disappoint with weakness across all categories: appliances consumer electronics and now entertainment. Appliances category is particularly concerning given a very easy comp - naturally investors will look at weakness in consumer electronics then look at PERSISTENT weakness in appliances and conclude that this is not a one-off for weakness in consumer elecrtonics. The question is "Isn't this priced into the stock trading at 11x forward earnings" We don't think so in fact we think $BBY falls into the "Looks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2008561996459897336)  2026-01-06T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @Heady_Creek year-end letter $RBLX: Roblox (RBLX): Incredible engagement but what if this is another SNAP By that we mean What if this is a platform that everybody uses and most of those that do could not dream of living without it but advertisers cant figure us out" How do you have the engagement levels of Tik-Tok but even after a 40% YTD gain is still valued at 1/10th the Bytedance owned phenomenon Because the average age (and experience) skews older at HCR most of the analysts have kids and lately weve all been saying the same thing: Have you heard of Steal the Brainrot There are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011136198819897569)  2026-01-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Heady_Creek is recommending clients build a position in $ANF. We missed the blow-off top from $105-125 but after our meetings at #ICR we walk away confident that both brands will normalize at a 4-5% comp and 14-15% margins. We have a more in-depth report which includes an analysis on the exciting opportunity in EMEA for our institutional cleints. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011149633712787649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011149633712787649"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011149633712787649)  2026-01-13T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Heady_Creek met with $ONON management at #ICR. The brand has benefited from the US wholesale channel specifically their presence at $DKS . But despite the significant tailwinds from their partnership with $DKS $ONON pushes a luxury narrative. Most of the meeting was spent discussing the commitment to full-priced sell-through and the in-store (DTC) experience. Management does not seem to be focused on growth instead focusing on full-priced sell-through as this is the defining factor in whether or not a brand is premium. But management does not control pricing in the wholesale channel and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011471364356448280)  2026-01-14T16:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$RIVN R1S is spiking in popularity. As one of the few electric cars with a 3rd row it is the modern day soccer mom's new favorite. A lack of dealership and service locations has historically held back this cohort of buyer but this may be changing soon: https://www.reddit.com/r/Rivian/comments/1qbdvu6/vw_dealer_told_me_today_vw_will_service_rivians/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Rivian/comments/1qbdvu6/vw_dealer_told_me_today_vw_will_service_rivians/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011474046513234227)  2026-01-14T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For the 2nd year in a row $ANF raised numbers into #ICR and for the 2nd year in a row they had to sit through meetings while the stock tanked. We are taking advantage of this sell-off and recommending clients consider a position in the retailer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011482453899202766)  2026-01-14T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I was informed that my dividend chart didnt go through - heres a screenshot off the letter. This morning $MTN updated its forecast for revenue and EBITDA for the current fiscal year. @Heady_Creek called out Vail Mountain Resorts in its year end letter citing the obvious: a mountain of debt a terrible start to the ski year an unsustainable dividend policy and an This morning $MTN updated its forecast for revenue and EBITDA for the current fiscal year. @Heady_Creek called out Vail Mountain Resorts in its year end letter citing the obvious: a mountain of debt a terrible start to the ski year an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011925199256506690)  2026-01-15T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SONO recently reported Q4 results for FY [----] and they provided guidance for Q1 FY [----] for revenue and EBITDA. The company is in the middle of an operational and reputational turnaround and so far they have succeeded. Theyve introduced new products some of which have exhibited exciting new features via over-the-air software upgrades theyve improved the operations application used to run the Sonos system and theyve done this without sacrificing profitability in an environment with higher tariffs and more competition. Morgan Stanley raised the stock to equal-weight citing valuation as the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1987896471123869717)  2025-11-10T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Recap of what we got right and what we got wrong: Winners: Longs: $ANF $ROST $MODG $HSY $DKS $REAL $SONO $CART $SN $W $RBLX $AMZN $ZUMZ Shorts: $PINS $TGT $HD $ONON $ELF $CMG $GNRC $KNX $MP $MTN $LULU Losers: Longs: $CELH Office Reits Shorts: $GAP $URBN All of my posts are public and timestamped so feel free to audit. My process is data-centric with a fundamental research overlay. It combines raw credit card and search data analysis corporate access financial modeling and experience. The posts are the elevator pitch - behind each is plenty of work. I am looking for an opportunity and all I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1993775980834410735)  2025-11-26T20:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"We sent this out to clients last night $PVH $FIVE: PVH: we recommend investors reduce their long exposure to PVH based on todays print. The companys results were disappointing against low expectations. Valuation is the only positive though we caution investors to consider a potential/material spend in the next 12-24 months to revamp the brand the channel mix and the store count. Specialty and branded apparel has de-rated over the last year with winners and losers emerging during this earnings season. PVHs perception as a loser with only two brands at their disposal will weigh on valuation."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1996589655370739812)  2025-12-04T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @Heady_Creek year-end letter: $HSY The Hershey Company (HSY) is poised for significant margin expansion in [----]. A combination of factors is creating one of the most attractive price-cost dynamics we see across staples: The devaluation of the Swiss Currency (CHF) and tariffs have raised the price of imported chocolate The rise in popularity of Dubai chocolate which actually contains less than 20% of its weight in cocoa is leading to a decline in the price of cocoa and cocoa butter The decline in popularity of Mr. Beast The share shift from Mr. Beast to Dubai chocolate is a net benefit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/2011521377736515951)  2026-01-14T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We sold our remaining holdings in $W after a great run. We bought shares earlier this year when we saw the company make a strategic shift in how it markets focusing less on driving organic traffic to their site and app and instead letting social sites like $PINS carry the burden of driving traffic to $W. With more ad load devoted to larger brands like $W and $AMZN through the year we were not surprised to see $Ws contribution margin and leverage on advertising improve this quarter. $CROX is also pulling back on performance marketing spend across both brands specifically #HeyDude and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1985072204619600303)  2025-11-02T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"my $ROST pitch from June [--] 2025: ROST: Current Price [------] Price by 12/31: [---] based on 21* [----] in EPS next year Ross Stores (ROST) is a close-out discount retailer that operates under two banners: Ross Stores and DeeDees Discount. The company recently reported earnings that disappointed the street relative to the extent of tariffs and their impact on EPS. We think this reaction was short-sighted and misses the bigger opportunity in the company and the sector: ROST operates in the close-out retail sector. They provide value to customers by purchasing excess inventory from brands and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1991626215241969862)  2025-11-20T21:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We initiated a position in Maplebear Inc. better know as Instacart $CART. They recently reported a great quarter with growth and profitability ahead of expectations. The stock has since sold off in reaction to $AMZN entering the grocery delivery business. We have been following their developments in the grocery space from the day they acquired Whole Foods to their Amazon Fresh store initiative. While initially disruptive $AMZN has not been successful. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956469162491924650 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956469162491924650"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Heady_Creek/status/1956469162491924650)  2025-08-15T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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