#  @HaurakiGulfWx Hauraki Gulf Weather Hauraki Gulf Weather posts on X about fiji, island, euro, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1287125332638613504/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.84% - [--] Month [-----] +3.90% - [--] Months [------] -43% - [--] Year [-------] +52% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1287125332638613504/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] no change - [--] Month [--] +29% - [--] Months [--] +35% - [--] Year [--] -21% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1287125332638613504/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.10% - [--] Month [-----] +1.30% - [--] Months [-----] +2.70% - [--] Year [-----] +8% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1287125332638613504/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [finance](/list/finance) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) **Social topic influence** [fiji](/topic/fiji), [island](/topic/island), [euro](/topic/euro), [in the](/topic/in-the), [vanuatu](/topic/vanuatu), [new caledonia](/topic/new-caledonia) #29, [norfolk island](/topic/norfolk-island), [model](/topic/model), [tonga](/topic/tonga), [earthquake](/topic/earthquake) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@weatherwatchnz](/creator/undefined) [@nicholasphilp](/creator/undefined) [@wenzhaocomment](/creator/undefined) [@royneary77](/creator/undefined) [@scottyp6849](/creator/undefined) [@sueonlineed](/creator/undefined) [@tamithaskov](/creator/undefined) [@skyalertmx](/creator/undefined) [@vincentledvina](/creator/undefined) [@petertgallagher](/creator/undefined) [@spacewxwatch](/creator/undefined) [@weatherpaulg](/creator/undefined) [@therealgregjack](/creator/undefined) [@savvyvanuatu](/creator/undefined) [@birdexplorers](/creator/undefined) [@snowleopard1](/creator/undefined) [@mewindy](/creator/undefined) [@noaas](/creator/undefined) [@sakakimoana](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Flare (FLR)](/topic/flare) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "#Invest98P has developed into a depression over the Coral Sea to the E of the Far North Queensland Coast. #98P is becoming likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by later in the week as it travels eastward towards New Caledonia. Tracking details at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1487515031604326403) 2022-01-29T19:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Invest92P launching an explosive hot tower this morning just north New Caledonia. It's centre is circulating over 29c sea surface temps and wind shear is becoming favourable. Chances of becoming a cyclone are increasing. NZ needs to keep 👀Details at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1490431770864488449) 2022-02-06T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#Invest92P has become more organised overnight. Pressure now down to [---] hPa on New Caledonia's Lifou Island. Deep convection starting to wrap into towards a consolidating low with equatorward and poleward outflow visible. NZ needs to keep 👀Tracking at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1490764161630244864) 2022-02-07T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#invest92P pressure continues to slowly drop as it moves ESE. Estimated barometric around [---] hPa. Tanna Island Vanuatu now down to [---] hPa. Winds gusts at Port Vila now [--] knots. Tracking at https://haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1491182491079946241) 2022-02-08T22:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "South Island rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 6:30pm Aug 16th 216mm Cropp Rv 207mm Tuke Rv 196mm Goldney Ridge 190mm Colliers ck 130mm Hokitika rv Gorge 128mm Mt Browning 126mm Taipo Rv 121mm Buckland Peaks 116mm Lake Brunner Sources: Private NIWA" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1559434324570685441) 2022-08-16T06:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "NZ rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 9:00am Aug 17th 348mm Cropp Rv 321mm Tuke Rv 287mm Colliers ck 281mm Goldney Ridge 254mm Aorere rv Perry Saddle 199mm Hokitika rv Gorge 190mm Buckland Peaks Sources: Private & envirodata" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1559646421263220736) 2022-08-16T21:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "NZ rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 7pm Aug 17th 446mm Anatoki rv @ Paradise 416mm Anatoki rv @ Happy Sams 403mm Buckland Peaks 400mm Aorere rv @ Perry Saddle 376mm Cropp Rv 352mm Goldney Ridge 345mm Tuke Rv 321mm Takaka @ Canaan Sources: Private & envirodata" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1559799341321420802) 2022-08-17T07:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A snaking convergence zone of heavy rain is developing from Northland into Auckland. Many private weather stations under this zone in Auckland are well above 100mm+ for the day so far. Hobsonville Point 141mm Kumeu 153mm to 3pm" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1618791688151121921) 2023-01-27T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Water vapour image today is showing a fujiwhara effect has developed 5km above the Tasman. [--] upper tropospheric cyclonic vortexes are dancing with each other about 1000km apart. The main vortex near Norfolk Island will consume its weaker rival becoming the main show later today" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1619479335957848066) 2023-01-28T23:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A large baroclinic leaf appearing this morning along with a water vapour surge with equatorial origins transporting southward. The upper low near Norfolk Island has primed the atmosphere for a new developing surface low in the subtropics" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1619763647827562496) 2023-01-29T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneGabrielle is now a fully transitioned subtropical cyclone motoring SE and only around 200km NW of Norfolk Island. Lightning strikes ahead of a surface trough pressure down to [-----] hPa on the Island at 11:10am local (1.10pm NZT)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1624202369021149184) 2023-02-11T00:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneGabrielle closes in on Norfolk Island this evening. Barometric pressure is [-----] hPa and still falling at 6:40pm NZT. A drop of [--] hPa in [--] hours" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1624285807183024128) 2023-02-11T05:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Overnight #CycloneGabrielle moved over Norfolk Island with pressure bottoming at [-----] hPa. Water vapour imagery this morning displaying that Gabrielle is starting to develop a scorpion tail 'sting jet' signature as it transitions to becoming a strong extratropical cyclone" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1624453731445252096) 2023-02-11T17:02Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements "Taking a look at how models performed [--] hours before #CycloneGabrielle 's placement/path at 1am Tuesday [--] Feb. Incredible performance by the UK model nailing placement pressure & change of direction. Pressure of [-----] hPa was recorded at Claris airport on Great Barrier Island" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1625971505984339971) 2023-02-15T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "RSMC Nadi have named Tropical cyclone Judy this afternoon. Pressure now [---] hPa max winds [--] knots category [--]. Tracking at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1630019703975600129) 2023-02-27T01:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Part [--] of a rain event sequence is coming together this morning as tropical moisture is being dragged down by a subtropical low near Norfolk Island. A vigorous wet E to NE flow today to Mon. Part [--] needs to be 👀closely as a meandering convergence zone lurks Wed to Sat" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1652099520405315585) 2023-04-28T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This evenings weather models projections show quite some uncertainty to where heavy rain associated with a NE to East wind convergence will intensify on early Friday morning. OZ and U.S models is a sample. More certainty within the next [--] hours" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1680839755230240768) 2023-07-17T07:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "GFS model for the AAO (SAM index) is projecting height anomalies coupling downwards from the stratosphere into the troposphere in the 2nd half of August. A vigorous westerly weather pattern for NZ with propagating polar upper troughs is likely to be on the menu if it verifies" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1689396539180122115) 2023-08-09T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Upward volcanic lightning from the Acatenango Volcano in Guatemala" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1692667555486523534) 2023-08-18T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Nocturnal tropical cyclone intensification with inner core lightning has turned tropical storm Idalia into #HurricaneIdalia. (ATCF) 06z has reclassified to Hurricane status NHC update to follow. Now moving into the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida. Pressure [---] mb Winds [--] knots" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1696430561869631502) 2023-08-29T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The evolution of Cat [--] Major #Hurricane #IDALIA inner eyewall on microwave imagery (last 24hrs). NHC projecting landfall to be a cat [--] with a brutal 3.5m to 5m storm surge. Landfall likely 8am local (12am NZT) Current obs Air pressure 945mb Wind 104kts (193 km/h) (120 mph)" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1696769122024215018) 2023-08-30T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Cloud increasing today with some isolated showers & easterlies as a Tasman low creeps closer. There is still uncertainty on the near-term rainfall outlook as it will depend on where an E to NE convergence zone positions itself on Sun into Mon. Latest euro rainfall projection" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1697682969367023822) 2023-09-01T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Latest Precip water imagery showing a snaking convergence zone between a Tasman low & a southern high drifting towards upper North this morning. It will meander slowly southward over the next [--] hrs as the low dissolves over the Tasman. Decent rain can be expected in this zone" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1698055993685680172) 2023-09-02T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The East to NE wind convergence zone is snaking into the gulf this afternoon. Its generating moderate rain on its southern flank and heading towards parts of Auckland for this evening" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1698539011349057549) 2023-09-04T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its been a wet first week of Sept for the upper North Island with widespread [--] to 80mm across the region. Areas in the Hunua Ranges above 100mm & the Coromandel Ranges near 200mm. Best performing global model for weekly rainfall est. on [--] Aug 12z was the UK poorest was GFS" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1699636081753546922) 2023-09-07T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Precipitable water values are increasing over the Tasman as a tropical fed convergence zone develops ahead of a front & associated upper trough. Heavy rain is likely ahead of the frontal boundary on late Sat into Sun for the upper North then a new low will form in its wake" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1704720294269837367) 2023-09-21T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A concerning model projection trend for many areas of the North Island especially the eastern side on the latest model runs this morning. [--] day rainfall accumulation totals will cause issues if they verify. The U.S GFS model is less extreme but is now an outlier" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1704939806525145138) 2023-09-21T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting quake sequence under the Mt Tarawera volcano today within the Haroharo Caldera 25km SE of Rotorua. There have been [--] small shallow quakes so far ranging from M1.8 to M2.7. Before today GeoNet has only ever recorded [--] quakes in this location. Mt Tarawera last erupted on 10th June [----] and represented a [--] on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) destroying the famous pink and white terraces. Thanks to GeoNet publicly sharing data we keep an 👁 on the North Island volcanoes on our website at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/volcano-centre" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1706181694515204427) 2023-09-25T05:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some interesting weather model runs this morning. The UK model going with a bow echo-induced squall line through Auckland around sunrise. Winds running at 1.5km above the surface can mix downward on the frontal boundary. Possible 130km/h+ gusts if that model run verifies" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1707498873827279234) 2023-09-28T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RoyNeary77 Delays are possible. Also harbour bridge and ferries might have delay issues if that matters getting there" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1707517994962977002) 2023-09-28T22:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Another Tonga submarine volcano to keep an eye on. Satellite imagery on [--] September from NASA's Sentinel Urban false colour composite suggests the South Pacific Volcano is awakening again. It appears (at least from satellite) that the Home Reef volcano in Tonga has been erupting since September 24th [----]. I say this due to discolored water patches and numerous thermal detections. Note: My assessment could be wrong. #tonga #geology #volcano #eruption It appears (at least from satellite) that the Home Reef volcano in Tonga has been erupting since September 24th [----]. I say this due to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1708374966834745596) 2023-10-01T06:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Something is brewing aloft with a large area of warmer than normal air developing in the upper stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere during September. Weather models are projecting this pool of air to breach and weaken the Polar vortex over Antarctica in the next week. This could lead to a sequence of significant fronts launching from the Southern Ocean towards NZ making the 2nd half of October colder & windy than normal. One to keep an 👁 on" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1709055297539760325) 2023-10-03T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Clear blue skies over the Gulf today a nice change from the turbulent & wet Sept we just endured. The seasonal turning point of the sea surface temps surrounding the upper North is now underway currently 15c & slowly rising as solar radiation increases as we near summer" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1709366203683307818) 2023-10-04T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🌀The first 2023-24 cyclone season forecast for the South Pacific basin out from the Euro ensemble today. From months November to April its guidance is projecting Six tropical cyclones made up of - Four Category [--] to [--] Two Category [--] & above The last strong El Nio in 2015-16 was a significant impact season for the South Pacific. Made up of [--] cyclones [--] were severe which included Category [--] TC Winston that became the strongest ever South Pacific tropical cyclone ever recorded with pressure dropping to [---] hPa. No cyclones impacted NZ for that season" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1710020030312993033) 2023-10-05T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Latest Sentinel [--] satellite urban false colour composite imagery taken yesterday suggests that the Tonga Home Reef volcano continues to erupt. The South Pacific's newest island seems to have grown by around [---] metres southward since the [--] September image" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1711607286853234731) 2023-10-10T04:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its been [--] months today since the major Tonga volcanic eruption. Of late the global surface temp trend has been tracking similar to the [----] Novarupta Alaskan eruption until last month where is has now significantly spiked warmer than post any other major eruption of the last [--] centuries at the same stage. High levels of water vapour still remain trapped in the upper stratosphere but there is now intriguing signs that some of it is lowering to the mid stratosphere. This global climatic event is still playing out" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1713422138072584564) 2023-10-15T05:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Commencing to track tropical low 01U (BoM allocated) 1200km NE of Vanuatu. Weak low level circulation is underway sea surface temp 30c. Likely to encounter favourable atmospheric conditions for further development this weekend" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1714539970785104002) 2023-10-18T07:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🌀The latest (run 18z) from GEFS ensemble members has a wide spread beyond [--] days from now. But several are developing a severe tropical cyclone north of Vanuatu. Longer term the timing of a mid-latitude trough will determine if it takes a NZ exit door. Too early to know atm" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1714817432408465874) 2023-10-19T01:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Deep convective hot towers pluming into the stratosphere as [--] kts winds have now been reached making the low north of Vanuatu now tropical cyclone 01P named by JTWC. The U.S agency projects it to be a [---] knot cat [--] TC by Tues morning. Fiji Met likely to name the cyclone today" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1715835110828962019) 2023-10-21T20:59Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements "Fiji Met have named tropical #cycloneLOLA this afternoon. The pre-season storm is only the 7th South Pacific cyclone to be named in October since 1970" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1715958987806707815) 2023-10-22T05:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneLola's eye is clearing out with frequent inner eyewall lightning signaling it is in a maturing phase. Currently centred around 250km NE of Vanuatu's Banks Islands heading southward. Satellite intensity estimates have winds at [--] knots now unofficially a category 3" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716257038840611287) 2023-10-23T00:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneLola continues to strengthen this evening. The U.S Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system (ATCF) has just upgraded sustained winds to [--] knots unofficially making it a category 4" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716353632030101754) 2023-10-23T07:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneLola is a top shelf South Pacific goliath this morning with the infamous truck tyre look on IR satellite imagery. Latest surface wind estimates around [---] knots barometric air pressure in the mid 940's. Approaching Vanuatu during today" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716502069799190972) 2023-10-23T17:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CylcloneLola continues to mature with the inner eyewall once again erupting with lightning. The outer eyewall is now starting to rake Vanuatu's Maewo & Pentecost Islands. Sea surface temp over its next 100km is 27c wind shear remains favourable. Catastrophic impact likely on its southern side this afternoon into tonight. Cat [--] Pressure [---] hPa Winds [---] kts (222 km/h) Gusts [---] kts (280 km/h) Speed [--] kts (11 km/h)" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716629637592490252) 2023-10-24T01:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Category [--] severe #CycloneLola continues to slowly grind through the Vanuatu archipelago this morning. Microwave imagery shows it has become asymmetrical with deep convection and strong winds on the south side. Longer term its weakened vortex will pass over New Caledonia by Friday then merge with an upper low transitioning to a subtropical depression as it move towards NZ on the weekend. More to come on this soon" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716873478597718498) 2023-10-24T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Latest [--] member GEFS ensemble (18z) has several members including GFS projecting #CycloneLola's vortex being re-energised around Norfolk Island from an upper trough on Saturday. This would likely bring a vigorous east to northeasterly wind flow with heavy rain at times into the upper North on late Sunday & Monday if it verifies" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1716977010596343835) 2023-10-25T00:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Major #hurricaneOtis has gone from a tropical storm to a landfall Cat [--] hurricane within [--] hrs near Acapulco Mexico. The rapid intensification was not forecast NHC forecast a TS with max winds of [--] mph [--] hrs ago it has just made landfall at [---] mph One of the greatest weather model busts of all time" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1717066483057201589) 2023-10-25T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "High cloud has cleared above ex-tc Lola exposing the low level vortex spinning around 200km SE of New Caledonia. The low is now moving SSE and will commence the extratropical cyclone transition this evening to the east of Norfolk Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1718029965315526942) 2023-10-27T22:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cloud tops temps breaching -70c on convective plumes on the south east quadrant of the deepening low with intermittent lightning . Pressure down to around [----] hPa position around 300km ENE of Norfolk Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1718190580013093031) 2023-10-28T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Low level jet stream is starting to ramp up over the far North. Cape Reinga now clocking gusts near [---] km/h (70 knots)" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1718406034908475822) 2023-10-28T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Our live camera this evening is focused on the easterly storm surge heading into the seawall as the high tide is coming into Waitemata harbour. Waves already smashing over the wall [--] hour before high tide at 8:37pm" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1718512159146356774) 2023-10-29T06:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Both the GEFS (U.S) & Access-S (Oz) ensembles are now picking a moderate to strong MJO pulse in the 2nd week of November in the West Pacific. This means the tropics could become quite active on the South Pacific convergence zone if the projections hold up. One to keep an 👁on" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1719139384145092965) 2023-10-30T23:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Strong G3 geomagnetic storm now penetrating earth's magnetosphere. A combined CME impact and coronal hole high speed streams means very active space weather over the next [--] to [--] hours. Potential aurora australis far north if conditions continue tonight" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1721224822838227234) 2023-11-05T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Right on cue - A West Pacific MJO pulse projected in late Oct continues to verify with global models now projecting a synoptic scale cyclonic gyre developing near the Solomon Islands this weekend. Chances of the another South Pacific tropical cyclone increase next week. 👁🌀" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1721599147307139303) 2023-11-06T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🌀Tropical low 91P has been named 700km NE of the Solomon Islands. The first GEFS ensemble forecast track map projects a southward moving system by the weekend. Vanuatu & Fiji needs to keep an 👁on this low's movements. We are now tracking 91P at" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1721696439808761999) 2023-11-07T01:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "IR satellite image this morning showing a deep convective hot tower erupting into the stratosphere on the northern quadrant of tropical low 91P. Centre currently 500km NNW of Vanuatu 1500km NW of Fiji. Stronger poleward outflow also appearing as the low consolidates" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1723037955315359819) 2023-11-10T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The BoM's Access G model this morning has upgraded projected intensity to a high impact cat [--] cyclone on Fiji Wed AM. Globally over the last few months Access G has performed well on early detection of rapid intensification 🌀before other models. SST's are 28c on approach" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1723413700080713937) 2023-11-11T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low 91P is now moving closer to a favorable corridor of wind shear (15 to [--] knots) along with sea surface temps of 29c. Sustained winds up to [--] knots giving it tropical storm level status" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1723850896881189028) 2023-11-12T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The sun setting tonight on newly named tropical #cycloneMal highlighting its bubbling cumulonimbus clouds near the developing eyewall. Already nearing cat [--] sustained winds now up to [--] knots (83 km/h) pressure down to [---] hPa position around 850km/h NW of Fiji tracking SE" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1723964969728053357) 2023-11-13T07:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning tropical #cycloneMal has intensified overnight and is currently [--] knots (102 km/h) sustained winds pressure [---] hPa. JTWC has now upgraded Mal to be a [--] knot cat [--] system on the western edge of Fiji later today" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1724108110560924132) 2023-11-13T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical #cycloneMal's eyewall sparking with a barrage of lightning strikes on daybreak. A behavioral sign that continued intensification and maturing is underway. Latest observations from U.S satellite estimating has sustained winds at [--] knots (111 km/h) pressure [---] hPa" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1724139091577704875) 2023-11-13T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Latest U.S satellite plot estimate now has tropical #cycloneMal with max sustained winds at [--] knots. The NE quadrant is becoming the destructive zone of the storm. Fiji's Yasawa Islands & the western side of Viti Levu could enter this zone Wed AM if the storm S wobbles east" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1724226747955359992) 2023-11-14T00:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Severe tropical #cycloneMal upgraded to cat [--] this morning by Fiji Met Service. Max winds [--] knots (120 km/h) pressure down to [---] hPa tracking SE at [--] knots. The outer eyewall raking the western edge of Viti Levu. Mal has peaked & now encountering wind shear of 25-30 knots" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1724465825653063717) 2023-11-14T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Asperitas clouds arriving over the upper North (formerly known as the Undulatus asperatus). Lots of instability aloft to produce this cloud specimen. The cloud type was officially added to the Intl Cloud Atlas by WMO in [----] the first new cloud since cirrus intortus 1951" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1725307699548889397) 2023-11-17T00:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Ulawun volcano major eruption in Papua New Guinea yesterday. The eruptive column busting through the tropopause into the stratosphere" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1727029193173782971) 2023-11-21T18:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Notable shallow earthquake 290km north of Port Vila Vanuatu" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1727190764025942421) 2023-11-22T05:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2 shallow microquakes within the Auckland volcanic field under the gulf this morning. They were centered 25km NE of Auckland 11km NE of Rangitoto 4km N of Waiheke Is. The first was a M0.7 @ 3:18am followed by a M1.2 @ 4:51am. The last quake in this area was a M1.5 on 1.5.2019" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1727384073080033481) 2023-11-22T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ScottyP6849 Too early to know at this stage for Auckland. But stay tuned in the week ahead as the Tasman and tropics are likely to come alive" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1729269104350314822) 2023-11-27T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Right on cue GFS model is projecting a synoptic scale tropical cyclonic gyre nth of Vanuatu next week. While a Tasman convergence zone drags down tropical moisture towards the Nth Island. If it verifies it means Sth Pacific's 3rd🌀for the season & more rain for the Nth Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1729564187423105305) 2023-11-28T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "NASA has modelled some very active space weather earth bound within the next [--] hours. NOAA's next [--] day space weather forecast will drop at 1:30pm NZT tmrw. After today's high end earth facing M class solar blast it could have a strong G3 magnetic storm forecast on the cards" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1729756069881131022) 2023-11-29T06:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BoM's space weather forecasters are projecting a possible severe G4 geomagnetic storm on Fri evening NZ time. Breaching this level would cause large ionosphere disturbances. High impact on radio frequencies & GPS with the Aurora Australis dancing towards the upper North Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1730092962225537461) 2023-11-30T05:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tonight a newly named tropical low is consolidating 1000km NE of Vanuatu. Agency names are 92P (JTWC) & 02U (BoM) . It's circulating over sea surface temps of 31c the warmest on the planet. Tracking westward wind shear improves this weekend with tropical cyclone strength likely in the next [--] hrs as it approaches the Solomon Islands. Longer term there is risk of further intensification over the Coral Sea north of New Caledonia early next week. We are now tracking at" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1730482566946550060) 2023-12-01T07:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The latest euro ensemble showing tropical low 92P has very wide spread from its members beyond [---] hours due to the strength uncertainty of the subtropical ridge. A stronger ridge brings the Queensland coast into play a weaker ridge means it steers into the northern Tasman" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1730688403027738887) 2023-12-01T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tropical low 92P is now centered just to the east of the Solomon Islands. Its moving into a favourable windshear environment of [--] to [--] knots. The systems structure will slowly improve during today as it crawls west. Beyond [--] hrs the Coral Sea sea surface temps are 28-29c" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1731083854583394561) 2023-12-02T22:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Latest image of the sun displaying a massive coronal hole turning towards our planet. High speed solar winds are due to arrive @ earth within hours & space weather will intensify accordingly. NOAA's forecast is for a possible G2 level geomagnetic storm from 10pm to 1am NZT" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1731576002579739075) 2023-12-04T07:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tropical low 92P this morning is now centered just S of the Solomon Islands over 29c seas with a deep convective hot tower punching into the stratosphere in the southern quadrants. With no land interaction its structure will improve & likely be cyclone strength later today" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1731737829015986178) 2023-12-04T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "JTWC names tropical cyclone 03P just South of the Solomon Islands. Projecting a [---] knot beast in the central Coral Sea within [--] hours. the official name from BoM coming soon which will be tropical #CycloneJasper" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1731863532721799467) 2023-12-05T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A fine & settled pre-Xmas dry spell is moving in for the upper North Island SW winds temps low to mid 20s. High pressure will bulldoze low pressure out of the region meaning very little to no rain for the next [--] wks. It also means that NZ will be protected from #CycloneJasper" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1732463155375468566) 2023-12-06T18:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low 93P has been named by JTWC 800km north-west of Samoa and joins tropical #CycloneJasper as monitored tropical systems in the South Pacific. Still early days but the GFS model projects the potential development of a tropical cyclone next weekend around Samoa" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1733727439375974755) 2023-12-10T05:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Water vapour imagery shows that NW wind shear & dry air has decimated tropical #cycloneJasper overnight. BoM wind obs at Lihou Reef suggests its barely a category [--] now. JTWC has downgraded to a tropical storm. It needs wind shear to ease to regain structure before landfall" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1733909043360788591) 2023-12-10T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@nicholasphilp GFS model currently projects a windy & wet tropical low this Saturday around Samoa moving SE" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1733915272485159218) 2023-12-10T18:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The final warming of the Southern Hemisphere's Polar Vortex is forecast tmrw. Zonal winds @ [--] hPa will turn from westerly to easterly signifying the death of the planet's largest weather system for [----]. Its major influence on NZ will diminish by Jan before returning in Autumn" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1734403217742795002) 2023-12-12T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Latest from NOAA's premier hurricane model HAFS has #CycloneJasper coming off the Coral sea in the mid 970's hPa [--] kts Cat [--]. Ocean depth between the Great Barrier Reef & landfall is shallow (10 to 30m) so little cold water upwelling. Plenty of energy for Jasper on approach" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1734457361098801620) 2023-12-12T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The global weather model's nemesis is the Gulf of Carpentaria. Every season they struggle to align & correctly project the behaviour of tropical lows that meander around its waters. Ex #CycloneJasper will be no different as displayed on the Super ensemble of the EuroUSUK & CA" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1735403015572771263) 2023-12-14T20:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Far North QLD region has had [--] to [--] metres of rain in last [--] days from #CycloneJasper. How did models do [--] days ago here were the max. accum rainfall totals that global models projected. 1383mm = (AU) 1204mm = UK 903mm = DE 809mm = Euro 747mm = CA 570mm = U.S (GFS)" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1736640220353987000) 2023-12-18T06:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🌀Ex-#CycloneJasper's (94SP) weak circulation over the Gulf of Carpentaria is being monitored by the BoM & JTWC. The latest Euro ensemble run (18z) has [--] members upgrading the system to tropical cyclone status in the Coral Sea between X-mas & NY. Still one to keep an 👁 on" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1737289179149873402) 2023-12-20T01:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It is time to say good-bye to [----] in what was a year of notable historical weather events for upper North Island. We will finish the year with a prefrontal rainband that will unfortunately dampen NYE festivities. Here were some observation highlights across the upper North Island over the year up until 7am [--] Dec. Max Temp: 31.8c Whangarei 22nd Jan Min Temp: -0.7c Hunua [--] Jul Daily mean temp: 16.1c recorded from our weather station on the North Shore Auckland. Wettest place: 6076mm Pinnacles Coromandel Ranges Driest place: 1201mm Gulf Harbour Lowest barometric air pressure: [-----] hPa Claris" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1741163898945102091) 2023-12-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Intense thunderstorm cell slowly heading northward near Tauranga at 7:20pm. MetService currently have a Severe thunderstorm warning on this cell" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743519816701690158) 2024-01-06T06:28Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Plenty of sun with a warm humid north-easterly flow for at least the next week across the upper North Island. A subtropical low will likely develop around Norfolk Island on Thurs & be guided by the ridge westward towards Oz no impacts for NZ in the next [--] days" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1743876205252870580) 2024-01-07T06:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WeatherWatchNZ Big congrats on the launch & well done on making more weather data & alerts easily accessible to the public via the app. 👏" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1744596558690341193) 2024-01-09T05:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2 years today at 5:14pm (NZ and local time) the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far occurred at the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai submarine volcano. Atmospheric and ocean impacts were felt across the globe with a tsunami smashing into parts of the upper North Island destroying many marine vessels in Northland's Tutukaka harbour. A regional detailed timeline with photos video of the lead up and event can be viewed at Over the last [--] years we have been tracking the global temperature change with several scientific journals printed in [----] forecasting a temperature spike in the years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1746748042701902161) 2024-01-15T04:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Euro weather model is currently producing an upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex over the North Island early next week if it verifies. Cold core cut off low's in summer can produce very unstable weather with thunderstorm outbreaks over several days. One to 👀 closely" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1750061210861773105) 2024-01-24T07:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical #CycloneKirrily now a cat [--] continues to be a asymmetrical storm but is now attempting to enclose an inner eyewall as it approaches the Nth Qld coast. Winds gusts 109km/h on Flinders reef. Its trochoidal forward motion means uncertainty of the exact crossing location" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1750322087384981984) 2024-01-25T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ex-Tropical #cycloneKirrily continues to dump rain over central Qld with a 'brown ocean effect' helping it to maintain its vortex. Main global models now agree that Ex-Tc Kirrily sheds a new vortex over SE Qld which moves NE into the Coral Sea next week & becomes a tropical low" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1751717008931201036) 2024-01-28T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not many raindrops over the next [--] weeks for the upper North Island as the Sub-tropical Ridge creates a defensive wall from tropical lows to the North. Fiji Met Service are keeping an eye on invest 94P (TD05F) & 95P (TD06F) as both lows meander & await for favourable conditions" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1754206747835944996) 2024-02-04T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The German wx model Icon in the past few days has continued to project a cat [--] tropical cyclone from Tropical Low 94P around New Caledonia this weekend. On the latest run the U.S GFS model has started to align with the idea. NZ always needs to keep a👀on this TC breeding ground" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1754379634463138001) 2024-02-05T05:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning's water vapour image displaying the tropics with [--] active low's from New Caledonia to French Polynesia. One being cat [--] tropical cyclone Nat approaching Bora Bora. The Subtropics has a strong ridge providing a barrier with ongoing dry conditions for the North Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1754925331566481447) 2024-02-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This morning there are now [--] named tropical cyclones in the South Pacific. Nat & Osai currently cat 1's around 1100km apart between Samoa & French Polynesia. A 3rd tropical low 94P near New Caledonia displaying lightning active deep convective hot towers" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1755301894392811960) 2024-02-07T18:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Hadley cell has now anchored into a summer position across the mid latitudes with a conveyor belt of high pressure systems circling the southern hemisphere. The dry weather pattern continues for the upper North Island over the next week and could continue into late February" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1756502644817097146) 2024-02-11T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Space weather has moved up a gear up this weekend. Todays near X class solar flare from sunspot [----] caused a R2 radio blackout over the South Pacific & a possible incoming Geomagnetic storm to impact earth 14-15 Feb. The sunspot is huge & active needs to 👀closely this week. Strong M9.04 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/AHjUk3QWrK Strong M9.04 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/AHjUk3QWrK" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1756551223224971483) 2024-02-11T05:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Latest seasonal climate model projections from CFS v2 continue to lock in a flip back to La Nia by Spring. With sea surface temps already elevated in the South Pacific from an unusual El Nio immense ocean energy is becoming likely to couple with the atmosphere by next Summer. NOAA's seasonal climate model CFS v2 continues to project that El Nio will be short lived with a flip back to La Nia by next Spring. One to 👀for NZ especially the North Island. https://t.co/JKMSDGCLc7 NOAA's seasonal climate model CFS v2 continues to project that El Nio will be short lived with a flip back to La Nia by" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1757220118919315831) 2024-02-13T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SueOnlineEd Sure. Ocean & Atmosphere has the potential to produce well above average rainfall later this year & early [----] for the upper North & eastern areas of the North Island if an moderate to strong La Nina develops" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1757287916538327057) 2024-02-13T06:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "JTWC has named tropical cyclone 15P this morning that is now moving over the southern Cook Islands. Its likely to have an official name from Fiji Met Service this PM. Rarotonga will be in the firing line early Saturday morning. No risk to NZ as its exits the tropics well east" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1758231467539480586) 2024-02-15T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "👀Both the Euro & US model ensembles are producing a strong MJO pulse over the West Pacific phase heading into Mid March. This could trigger a large weather pattern change for the North Island with tropical moisture pushing into mid-latitudes on a NE wind flow heavy 🌧potential" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1763374192035291323) 2024-03-01T01:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A classic squall line signature appearing on the radar over the Tasman heading at Auckland & the upper North Island. Expect a brief intense burst of wind and rain as it moves through your area this evening" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1764537448993100278) 2024-03-04T06:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Global weather models now aligning on a MJO induced cyclonic gyre forming on the South Pacific Convergence Zone next week. The Euro producing a Coral Sea cat [--] others a tropical depression. If they verify the North Island needs to keep a close 👁on an exiting tropical low. 👀Both the Euro & US model ensembles are producing a strong MJO pulse over the West Pacific phase heading into Mid March. This could trigger a large weather pattern change for the North Island with tropical moisture pushing into mid-latitudes on a NE wind flow heavy 🌧potential. https://t.co/OiRMHdLx7d 👀Both the Euro & US" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1764758165214974078) 2024-03-04T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Enhanced moisture & wind convergence are in the mix this weekend over the South Pacific as a tropical depression near Vanuatu develops with multiple circulation centres. Mostly fine for the upper North Island over the next [--] days with low pressure drifting towards Norfolk Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1765891167919677931) 2024-03-08T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tropical low 92P embedded in the South Pacific Convergence Zone is meandering around Vanuatu today as a MJO pulse travels over the Maritime continent triggering a 2nd round of the Australian monsoon. The tropics will become more active this week as the MJO pulse travels east" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1766928101119053870) 2024-03-10T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rain is on its way for Saturday morning as a weakening Tasman low crawls across the North Island. The rain will start before sunrise on the upper North's west coast & move east during the morning with showers clearing during the afternoon. Expect [--] to 20mm" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1770972319894401537) 2024-03-22T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cloudless skies on Easter Sunday over the Gulf as high pressure moves in sending dry southerlies into the upper North" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1774206609482559811) 2024-03-30T22:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "👀 The Polar vortex is becoming one to watch as it's mid level becomes elongated this weekend over the South Pole. This could lead to a weakening of the polar jet stream triggering a vigorous long wave trough northward & unseasonal cold snap across NZ during the 1st week of May" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1782283257331298470) 2024-04-22T05:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Models are now locking onto an upper cut off low forming near the upper North Island on Tuesday. Still some uncertainty but becoming likely to be unsettled with a converging northerly flow turning east to south-easterly. Expect showers & downpours on Monday & Tuesday" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1786495397176693170) 2024-05-03T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3rd largest solar flare of solar cycle [--] overnight as sunspot region [----] continues to be highly active. This weeks batch of X class flares while producing radio blackouts have not produced any sizable coronal mass ejection event so geomagnetic storm levels remain muted. Major X4.52 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/zTaDlfPQCz Major X4.52 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/zTaDlfPQCz" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1787552320861216923) 2024-05-06T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A lively weekend ahead for Aurora Australis hunters across NZ. It's likely to be a sustained bombardment of plasma and magnetic field directed at earth's magnetosphere. It's a #solarstorm train We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth Storm [--] [--] and [--] will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph imagery. Impacts start around midday May [--] and will continue through late May [--] at least. G3-level conditions & extended #aurora possible. https://t.co/7OZihcJ0xG It's a #solarstorm train We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth Storm [--] [--] and [--] will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1788448966620872841) 2024-05-09T06:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "NOAA has just issued a G4 severe solar storm watch the first in [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1788684030751244685) 2024-05-09T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The great solar storm of [----] continues. Auckland Coromandel & Northland images when another G5 level geomagnetic surge peaked last night. A potentially stronger cloud of plasma is on it's way from multiple CME's. ETA for earth's magnetosphere tonight & tomorrow morning" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1789407893110108271) 2024-05-11T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Latest radar showing some embedded heavy downpours within a rainband ahead of a warm front over the Tasman. Expect a wet morning on Wednesday with occasional downpours maybe a rumble of thunder and periods of rain. Keep the ☂ handy" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1790287021833076885) 2024-05-14T07:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Notable M6.6 on the Tonga-Kermadec Ridge 100km west of the the plate boundary. Prelim M6.6 Earthquake Tonga May-26 20:47 UTC updates https://t.co/JRG6IR0Y7x Prelim M6.6 Earthquake Tonga May-26 20:47 UTC updates https://t.co/JRG6IR0Y7x" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1794837595710730590) 2024-05-26T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A major X class flare on the suns SE limb. This is potentially from infamous sunspot region [----] which barraged earth in the first half of May & is now rotating back from the far side. Soon to be facing earth again. Major X2.9 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/wX2SD0g5Q0 Major X2.9 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/wX2SD0g5Q0" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1795001614287483312) 2024-05-27T07:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Quite an active radar over the Tasman heading towards Auckland this evening. Currently lightning strikes behind the initial rainband where the upper trough is injecting polar air. Our live stream camera is pointing west towards the city skyline tonight. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=itFvf_Xtw9Y https://www.youtube.com/watchv=itFvf_Xtw9Y" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1795326759073882291) 2024-05-28T05:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Several lightning strikes over SW Auckland last night as an active front moved in. The next lively front is due to arrive around midday across the upper North and it will be followed by a ferocious south-westerly. Auckland harbour bridge closures should be expected during PM" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1795521931074294134) 2024-05-28T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A solar radiation storm has been underway during this afternoon NZT and has now reached the rare & strong S3 level. Strong S3 Solar Radiation Storm - Degraded HF radio at polar regions and navigation position errors satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers Follow live on https://t.co/HAKRHFIDdF https://t.co/vbYQfurfSl Strong S3 Solar Radiation Storm - Degraded HF radio at polar regions and navigation position errors satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents radiation hazard to" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1799355961192411313) 2024-06-08T08:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Another [--] to 50mm overnight across the Auckland & the Gulf Islands has meant June rainfall accumulation is now starting to track above average with most areas ranging from 100mm to 200mm for the month" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1804665217496035494) 2024-06-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🚨 A potential sudden stratospheric warming event over Antarctica is being projected for late next week by the GFS model on the last [--] model runs. For the Southern Hemisphere these are rare and can dramatically change weather patterns in the mid latitudes around [--] to [--] weeks after they occur. The last event occurred in September [----]. This event is currently projected as a minor SSW with the upper westerly winds slowing dramatically around mid July. If models verify the upper atmospheric disturbance could significantly weaken the polar vortex & eventually couple down into troposphere causing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1808033016402567466) 2024-07-02T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Over the last [--] days clear stable weather has enabled vigorous plumes to observed coming out of the Whahaari / White Island volcano. Having a closer look at the latest Sentinel [--] satellite urban false colour composite imagery on [--] July it suggests that the Volcano now has a hot spot at the surface compared to last month. GeoNet currently holds the volcano at alert level 2" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1811211974581305716) 2024-07-11T01:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's the whole Southern Hemisphere measuring zonal mean sea level pressure at 40S (mid-latitudes) and 65S. So currently there is higher than average air pressure over Antarctica & lower of mid latitudes. Timing of any major cold outbreaks on NZ weather is still an unknown with strongest Rossby wave around Sth America atm" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1817671679772127536) 2024-07-28T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The infamous twin sister stratospheric polar vortex formation is now being modelled by NOAA's GFS model & NASA's GOES over the Antarctic continent on 4/5th August at [--] hPa. Westerly winds on the Euro ensemble plunging [--] knots @ [--] hPa across the Southern Hemisphere around the same period. Coupling into troposphere by 2nd week of August showing up on the GFS projected SAM (AAO) index. Medium term weather models for mid latitude countries could become volatile from mid August if this SSW event continues to verify" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1818425346645279008) 2024-07-30T23:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A strong Aurora Australis reached the upper North Island overnight. This was captured from the Coromandel Peninsula near the height of the severe G4 geomagnetic solar storm early this morning. Credit Monalie Evangelista Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8) Threshold Reached: 14:42 UTC Follow live on https://t.co/Zkq26B89Y7 https://t.co/Xz4aw2I1iG Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8) Threshold Reached: 14:42 UTC Follow live on https://t.co/Zkq26B89Y7 https://t.co/Xz4aw2I1iG" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823075711764365822) 2024-08-12T19:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🥶 A breeding ground of streaking cold convective cumulus as the polar air is launched beyond the sea ice by a cyclonic gyre over the warmer Southern ocean. Ice overlay images showing the ice sheets at the start of the frigid southerly fetch bound for NZ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1825334457198612899) 2024-08-19T00:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A polar goliath is appearing on multiple global models just over a week from now to the south of Tasmania. As it pushes equatorward it will encounter the subtropical ridge & spawn an epic belt of wind in the mid latitudes. The roaring 40's & furious 50's is about to ramp up" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1826331305656942762) 2024-08-21T18:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Notable M6.9 earthquake on the western edge of the Tonga Trench. Depth & size means unlikely to have generated a noticeable tsunami. Region: Tonga Islands Mag: [---] UTC: 2024-08-25 23:29:06 Lat: [------] Lon: [-------] Dep: 126km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/gPGCGpt6s8 Region: Tonga Islands Mag: [---] UTC: 2024-08-25 23:29:06 Lat: [------] Lon: [-------] Dep: 126km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/gPGCGpt6s8" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1827855224960377327) 2024-08-25T23:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lightning active thunderstorm clusters just keeping rolling in on an unstable NW flow today over the Auckland area. A cloud to cloud bolt caught on the livestream webcam. Our climate station in Devonport just recorded a peak rainfall rate of 245mm/hr under this passing cell" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1829683371854684563) 2024-08-31T00:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Euro model projecting a polar streamer over NZ early next week dropping snow in unusual places. 2cm of ❄on Northland & ❄ flurries for Sth Auckland / Waikato. Still a long way out & downgrades are likely but always interesting to watch the polar vortex spook the best weather models" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1833221750886437267) 2024-09-09T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Overnight the largest solar flare since the infamous May [----] Great solar storm event. It was not aimed directly at earth but a large CME was generated meaning some geomagnetic storm impacts mid week are likely. Sunspot region [----] will directly face earth in the comings days. Major X4.54 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/DMgB8SO6KB Major X4.54 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/DMgB8SO6KB" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1835030897105813863) 2024-09-14T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "An unstable atmosphere in the government divisions for climate & weather forecasting. For innovation sake lets hope there is more open free public data after this merger like what exists with the BoM & NOAA" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1839148141578506717) 2024-09-26T03:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Major hurricane #Helene now has frequent inner eyewall lightning a sign that this tropical specimen is maturing as it approaches landfall on Florida within [--] hrs. @ 10:00pm UT 26th Sept Pressure = [-----] hPa S-winds = [---] kts Moving = NNE [--] kts A high end Cat [--] & strengthening" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1839426816777535920) 2024-09-26T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Major hurricane #Helene continues to strengthen with barometric pressure now down to [-----] hPa on the latest air recon observation. Landfall within the next hour" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1839482940759375888) 2024-09-27T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Satellite imagery shows the weather was clear & stable last night around Samoa. Unfortunately even marine vessels with the best technology can fall victim to shallow reefs. Just watch the HMNZS Manawanui burn and sink. Sad day for NZ and locals https://t.co/XBMNfC3XJ1 Just watch the HMNZS Manawanui burn and sink. Sad day for NZ and locals https://t.co/XBMNfC3XJ1" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1842694460486058283) 2024-10-05T22:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Microwave imagery showing #HurricaneMilton exploding from a disorganised tropical low into a top shelf cat [--] tropical cyclonic gyre within [--] hrs. Barometric pressure now down to [---] hPa sustained winds [---] knots near the Mexico coast with the infamous pinhole eye. The next [--] hrs will see more of a ENE track along the ridge offshore from the Mexico & Cuba coasts. After this track it will steer NE and likely go through an eyewall replacement cycle before making a landfall on Florida early Thurs local time. Wind shear is likely to start shredding its structure on approach to the coast and" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1843402253656568219) 2024-10-07T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#HurricaneMilton being affected by dry air & wind shear pressure now @ [---] hPa winds [---] kts low end cat [--] & wobbling to the Florida coast. Tampa Bay area will be ground zero within [--] hrs @ 10pm local. #Milton's Vortex shedding is triggering tornadoes along Florida peninsula" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1844099254253687089) 2024-10-09T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Space weather Alert🟥 Yesterday's X class solar flare aimed at earth produced an enormous full halo CME at our planet & Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS as it was passing. NOAA has forecast a severe G4 possible G5 level solar storm arriving at earth's magnetosphere early Fri AM NZT" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1844108885642355162) 2024-10-09T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The aurora borealis (northern lights) now being seen in the Northern hemisphere tropics at [-------] N [--------] W. Geomagnetic storm levels continue to be elevated at G4 as night approaches for NZ. Rojiza aurora boreal desde Zacatecas Mxico. 😍 @TamithaSkov @SkyAlertMx @Vincent_Ledvina @petertgallagher @spacewxwatch 📸: Da Ko #Northernlights #AuroraBoreal #AuroraAustral #Auroras https://t.co/bjE3kMQ3OJ Rojiza aurora boreal desde Zacatecas Mxico. 😍 @TamithaSkov @SkyAlertMx @Vincent_Ledvina @petertgallagher @spacewxwatch 📸: Da Ko #Northernlights #AuroraBoreal #AuroraAustral #Auroras" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1844621542854099390) 2024-10-11T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Less than [--] hrs ago this system was given a 10% chance of becoming a tropical storm by the U.S National Hurricane Center. Now it is #HurricaneOscar a very compact cyclonic gyre barometric pressure down to [---] hPa. Eastern Cuba suddenly has a hurricane problem on their hands. Tropical disturbance 94L is currently a weak circulation in the mid Nth Atlantic. The super ensemble projects it to move west along the ridge over the next [--] days & potentially into a lower wind shear environment near the Lesser Antilles by Fri. keeping a close 👁on this one. https://t.co/RQPhFAZOF6 Tropical disturbance" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1847801411586969830) 2024-10-20T00:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After a prolonged period of settled weather a Tasman low is developing & will bring periods of rain with gusty northerlies across the upper North on Saturday. Sunday will follow with showery westerlies that continue into Monday & next week as low pressure & westerlies dominate" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1849512303621972004) 2024-10-24T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "👀The South Pacific Convergence Zone is likely to become quite active in the 1st half of December with model ensembles continuing to project a strong MJO pulse into the region. Clusters of deep convective thunderstorms from the Solomon Islands to Tonga could organise and trigger the seasons first tropical 🌀 during this period with sea surface temps now between 30c to 26c in this corridor" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1855027541209493962) 2024-11-08T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Latest rainfall projection for the upper North Island from the Oz model has the Tasman low on Friday tracking over Auckland Friday PM. If it verifies an associated intense convergence zone near its centre ahead of a frontal boundary is modelled to trigger falls between [--] to 100mm. Other models from & are similar but less intense on the 18z run. Keep an eye on the radar during Friday if outdoors" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1856872399217807440) 2024-11-14T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@weatherpaulg @WeatherWatchNZ @therealgregjack Great article very good insight. An important step missing and hopefully still to come is full open data to the public like the GeoNet model under the 'CC3 licence' to facilitate research and risk assessment. This will bring true innovation to the industry like the U.S & Oz" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1857585328015687923) 2024-11-16T00:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low #97P is the first to get an invest name of the 2024-25 South Pacific cyclone season. Its circulation is located 600km north of Fiji and is expected to steer westward this weekend towards New Caledonia. Hostile upper level westerly wind shear means further development into a 🌀remains low. Longer term there is a chance its remnants could connect with a mid latitude trough and travel near the NZ region in early December but uncertainty remains high this far out" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1859676368919040066) 2024-11-21T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A notable M5.7 earthquake has occurred at 11:03am on the Hikurangi subduction zone off the east coast of the North Island. It's most likely a late aftershock from the large magnitude [---] quake on 5th March [----]. The seismic P wave took [--] seconds to arrive at our seismometer on Auckland's North Shore" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1861901970933772689) 2024-11-27T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WeatherWatchNZ yes its quite interesting. Some of the latest climate driver indicators are lining up with AI's projections but traditional models keep that strong ridge over the Tasman. for now" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1866996784335294942) 2024-12-12T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Initial small tsunami waves (25cm) now arriving at Port Vila. Notable quake preliminary info: M [---] - [--] km W of Port-Vila Vanuatu https://t.co/xksmFzYLKP Notable quake preliminary info: M [---] - [--] km W of Port-Vila Vanuatu https://t.co/xksmFzYLKP" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1868849211447603267) 2024-12-17T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The latest euro ensemble projects an active South Pacific Convergence Zone with increased chances of tropical low development during the Xmas to New Year period. The South Pacific Basin will need to be monitored closely as deep convective thunderstorm clusters become organised" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1869117817519542742) 2024-12-17T20:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A tropical low over Far North Queensland has been allocated an Invest name of 96P by JTWC (06U BoM). The Euro ensemble suggests if may reach tropical storm strength as it approaches New Caledonia early next week. It could also add atmospheric fuel to a Xmas low around NZ" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1869837605636059183) 2024-12-19T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "JTWC has issue a tropical cyclone formation alert for invest 96P over the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast. It will have more favourable conditions in the next [--] hours to potentially reach tropical storm strength. Lightning active convective hot towers currently in its eastern quadrant. Pressure [---] hPa Winds [--] knots" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1870375563569017133) 2024-12-21T07:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SavvyVanuatu Increased thunderstorm activity on Xmas day across the Vanuatu archipelago but no cyclone to worry about" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1870587871918539001) 2024-12-21T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Circling back [--] weeks ago AI and traditional weather models were quite different in their Xmas day forecast. It turns out that AI has made mince meat of the traditional models by having low pressure in the region and a weak ridge over Oz. AI using historical data & precedence as it base is slowly overcoming the chaos theory that traditional models can't cope with beyond [--] days. AI will also never be perfect but it is changing the forecasting game. A first look at the possible Christmas day synoptic weather map with rainfall for the region. Accuracy this far out is very low so one thing for" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1871676516565934308) 2024-12-24T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low #91P is [---] km NW of Fiji within the South Pacific Convergence Zone and has rapidly developed in favourable wind shear in the last [--] hours. Sustained winds [--] knots pressure [----] hPa tracking SE. JTWC now have a Tropical cyclone formation alert in place" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1872837297571545538) 2024-12-28T02:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical cyclone 06P has been named by JTWC 120km NW of Nadi Fiji. Max winds: [--] knots Pressure: [---] hPa Tracking ESE at [--] knots" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1873265572848554238) 2024-12-29T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Bird_Explorers JTWC has now named it 06P. Fiji Met has a different threshold for naming which they believe has not been reached yet" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1873266742073704862) 2024-12-29T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@WeatherWatchNZ It certainly was an interesting one yesterday. Last night's Nadi radar signature loop had a fully enclosed inner core suggesting it was easily a cat [--] FMS scale system that they decided not to officially name. JTWC were onto it though upgrading to [--] knots offshore" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1873507341066473864) 2024-12-29T23:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The latest Euro ensemble is projecting an active South Pacific Convergence Zone in the 2nd week of January. The risk of tropical cyclone development will be increasing in the corridor from the Solomons to Tonga. Sea Surface temps are currently between 28c to 30c in this area" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1874279121154723982) 2025-01-01T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Coolest start to the year since [----] for the upper North Island. A continued sequence of fronts from low pressure systems that commenced from around Christmas day is the reason for a much cooler showery and windier start to [----]. A large high is likely to develop over NZ by next weekend (Jan 11th) bringing more settled and warmer conditions mid-month. The tropics will become active around Fiji Tonga Samoa and Cook Islands region during this period but high pressure will protect NZ from any storm remnants trying to head south for now" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1875272652774109654) 2025-01-03T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "An interesting shallow earthquake swarm of 30+ quakes has developed around 110km east of the Coromandel Peninsula 130km SE of Great Barrier Island in the past few days. Seismicity today increased with [--] quakes so far. The epicenters are in same area as the intense 1984-85 earthquake sequence that had a main shock of M6.7 on New Years Eve [----]. Thus far there has been [--] M3.0+ events detected by GeoNet with the largest being a M4.2 today at 10am. No events have yet to be felt on land" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1876145078676431043) 2025-01-06T05:53Z [----] followers, 10K engagements "The South Pacific Convergence Zone has come to life with [--] tropical lows now rotating within it. #96P 400km east of Tonga is close to tropical storm strength and is heading SE. It will transition into the mid-latitudes away from Islands by this weekend and consolidate with another low to become a powerful extratropical cyclone to the east of NZ's Chatham Islands. More strong southerlies for the North Island. #98P is a weak circulation 200km east of Vanuatu and heading east along the subtropical ridge. It will find more favourable wind shear when it approaches Fiji within the next [--] hours." [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1876717134715478023) 2025-01-07T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical cyclone Pita formed overnight is now impacting Niue as as category [--] system on daybreak. It is steering along the subtropical ridge in a marginable environment and will likely impact Rarotonga late Monday as a possible category [--]. No future impact for NZ" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1877774974460596666) 2025-01-10T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The dry spell will continue for the upper North Island as a high pressure ridge will steer #CyclonePita eastwards over the Cook Islands and beyond. A low pressure trough will move off Oz's east coast & draw down tropical moisture later next week. One to keep an 👁on for NZ" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1877959465397264714) 2025-01-11T06:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@snow_leopard1 Could be right but weather models are always volatile in summer until the low actually forms. Some big differences between models still" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1878689592490213482) 2025-01-13T06:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It's now [--] years on since the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai 'VEI 6' submarine explosion that reached 57km into the mesosphere sending pressure waves and tsunamis around the globe. Here are some of the discoveries over the last [--] months of pre and post eruption. [--] minutes before the major eruption precursor 'Rayleigh waves' were detected by seismometers in Fiji and Futuna. The seismic waves were the equivalent of a M4.9 earthquake and was a warning from the volcano on what would come next. An important discovery for future early warning systems. The eruption caused the largest 'dirty thunderstorm'" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1879050125353623565) 2025-01-14T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tonight a subtropical low 250km SE of Norfolk Island is deepening and moving southward towards the upper North Island. A slow moving rainband associated with a warm front will affect Northland on Friday PM / early Saturday. High pressure is likely going to weaken and stall the low as it approaches Northland so Auckland the Gulf Islands and the Coromandel Peninsula will only experience a few showers over the weekend. The low will likely find a new lease of life on Monday and deliver a vigorous easterly with heavy rain on late Monday into Tuesday for the entire upper North Island. It's as" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1879775248062787601) 2025-01-16T06:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A historic day across the U.S Gulf states as a cold wave sweeps south with ocean-effect snow putting loads of flakes in places it hasn't been for over a century. Hurricane and tornado warning yes but a blizzard warning is a first. Bourbon street New Orleans is blanketed. NWS Lake Charles has issued it's first ever Blizzard Warning for Jefferson and Orange counties as well as Cameron Calcasieu Jeff Davis Acadia Vermilion and Lafayette parishes until noon today. https://t.co/JlyJpIxRcw NWS Lake Charles has issued it's first ever Blizzard Warning for Jefferson and Orange counties as well as" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1881756132278235566) 2025-01-21T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "👀Multiple tropical lows developing in a corridor between the OZ top end & Tonga is becoming likely later this week as a MJO pulse moves near the region. Most global models are currently projecting at least one of the lows becomes a tropical 🌀over the Coral Sea by next weekend" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1883396410281988581) 2025-01-26T06:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tropical cyclone 15P was named this morning by JTWC near Lifou New Caledonia. [--] kts [---] hPa. Lightning near its centre with good outflow. It will continue SE along the subtropical ridge before encountering hostile wind shear. Model mean currently projects no impact on NZ" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1886114798154420324) 2025-02-02T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low 95P has now being named tropical cyclone 16P by JTWC and is generating a pluming hot tower within its NE quadrant next to New Caledonia. Outflow has increased in the last [--] hours. Pressure [----] hPa max sustained winds [--] knots travelling ESE at [--] knots" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1889155107431805398) 2025-02-11T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mewindy It seems like the low level circulation is decoupling from the mid level now as it weakens so models are pretty close with the MSLP at 2:30pm NZT. for now" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1895653810447794263) 2025-03-01T01:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The latest run (00z) from the Euro has #CycloneAlfred launching it's 'dirty side' of spiral rainbands & wind gusts up to 180km/h at the Gold Coast & Brisbane's southern suburbs late Thurs night followed by landfall. A historic weather event for SE Qld NE NSW if that verifies" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1896447999469048156) 2025-03-03T06:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#CycloneAlfred has been positioned in the same grid cell (27S28S 155E156E) for the past [--] hours according to satellite imagery. This is due to weakening steering currents between the subtropical ridge and an equatorial ridge. Alfred is slowing down" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1897492396172304541) 2025-03-06T03:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The largest weather system on earth & NZ's most influential climate driver the stratospheric polar vortex began it's [----] journey on 15th Feb when easterlies turned to westerlies at [--] hPa above Antarctica. Seasonal changes are underway with the return of the Polar Jet stream" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1898812856197665168) 2025-03-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A trough is drifting westward off the Bay of Plenty producing 50mm in Pauanui so far today. The Coromandel Ranges are protecting areas to the west but some showers may get through this evening. Great Barrier Is & eastern parts of Northland will get some much needed rain drops" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1905796171886633339) 2025-03-29T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "👀 Latest GFS run is producing a formidable low-level jet stream over the upper North Island on Thurs AM as a Tasman extratropical cyclone deepens. It has winds of [--] to [--] knots at [---] hPa (1.5km above surface). Some of these winds will mix down to the surface 'if' it verifies" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1910795144468799788) 2025-04-11T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tropical low 98P is now being tracked by JTWC. Latest water vapour satellite image shows deep convection starting to circulate over the Vanuatu archipelago. The low will consolidate on Monday then be steered south by a trough on Tues towards Norfolk Island. NZ impacts from Wed" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1911313993710617009) 2025-04-13T07:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The U.S boutique hurricane models becoming aggressive with the intensification of tropical low 98P. Models HWRF & HAFS-A taking low wind shear & sea surface temps of 27c east of New Caledonia into account projecting a robust tropical cyclone exiting the tropics on Wednesday AM" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1911592199399346559) 2025-04-14T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sunrise on tropical cyclone 30P named by JTWC last night is over the top of the Vanuatu archipelago. Pressure [---] hPa winds [--] kts moving S at [--] kts. Large plumes of deep convection continued overnight. Conditions today remain favourable for further development. Fiji Met Service have yet to name the storm. Longer term subtropical transition will take place on Wednesday morning as it moves southward towards NZ. Full extratropical transition is likely to occur to the NW of Northland on Thursday. We are tracking the system on its journey south at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1911866191897116798) 2025-04-14T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fiji Met service now have a TC forecast track map. Expecting to officially name TD11F later today" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1911916487092391989) 2025-04-14T22:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@nicholasphilp The TC will move over 25c water around 400km SE of New Caledonia it will then transition to sub-tropical system with its wind field expanding. Then it will turn into an extratropical system as it nears NZ on Thursday" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1911920354324611468) 2025-04-14T23:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Tonight Fiji Met service officially named tropical #CycloneTam 400km east of New Caledonia. Pressure [---] hPa sustained winds [--] kts. Moving in a SSE direction and will transition into a subtropical system during Wednesday as it heads southward towards New Zealand waters" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1912047552859697237) 2025-04-15T07:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tropical low 94P is now being monitored by JTWC near the Solomon Islands over the northern extremity of the Coral Sea. Barometric pressure [----] hPa winds [--] knots deep convection in the NW quadrant. Global ensembles have the low deepening over the next [--] hours as it tracks SE" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1921029672084623747) 2025-05-10T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Space Weather Aurora Alert A major geomagnetic solar storm is forecast to hit earths magnetosphere later tonight and continue into Monday. Its coming from strong M class solar flare which produced a full halo coronal mass ejection sending a plasma cloud directly at our planet. NOAA has forecast a possible severe G4 arriving from midnight NZT and could pulsate for up to [--] hours. If the Plasma cloud arrives as forecast this is likely to mean the Aurora Australis could be seen across the upper North Island providing there are breaks in the clouds. If it reaches a G5 level there could be" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1929045923339866456) 2025-06-01T05:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The last [--] hrs total precipitable water loop showing the Oz east coast low dragging down an epic tropical moisture plume over the Tasman Sea. A vigorous NE to N wind convergence zone arrives over the upper North Island tomorrow ahead of a front. Lock in a wild day of weather" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1940265498647892039) 2025-07-02T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "👀A Mount Ruapehu earthquake swarm commenced late last night with GeoNet sensors recording over [--] microquakes so far [--] to [--] km beneath the eastern slopes of the volcano. The crater lake temp has been undergoing a cooling phase in the last [--] months and is currently at 11c" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1942293325459103960) 2025-07-07T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "👀A sudden stratospheric warming disturbance is starting to show up on the GFS model and several Euro ensemble model members over the Antarctica continent in the coming weeks. These events can change the Polar Jet steam to a more meridional flow triggering major cold snaps in the mid-latitude countries of NZ Australia Chile Argentina & South Africa. One to watch for August" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943021464145530899) 2025-07-09T18:56Z [----] followers, 86.6K engagements "A new Tasman low means more rain tonight and most of Friday as multiple fronts help drag down subtropical moisture over the upper North Island. Expect a vigorous north-easterly with 50mm to 80mm most likely being at its heaviest on Friday evening before a cold front moves through" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1943208692352270358) 2025-07-10T07:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Gulf earthquake swarm reawaken this morning by a magnitude [---]. The earthquake occurred in the northern area of the Hauraki gulf associated with the ongoing earthquake swarm off Whangarei. It was reported felt in Warkworth and Great Barrier Island. It is the equal 8th largest quake in the sequence with the largest being a M4.1 in February [----]. That now brings the total number of quakes in the sequence to [---] over the last [--] & half years. Before the swarm began there was no known fault line in that location 35km east of Whangarei Heads. The nearest known fault is the Whangarei Harbour fault" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1945201856847995251) 2025-07-15T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A Tasman low's centre has moved over lower Northland this evening & has a spiral rainband behind it coming off the Tasman. Keep an eye on the radar tonight as the low drags this rainband across parts of the upper North Island. Expect heavy rain at times if the western side of the low passes over your area" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1945726060450271634) 2025-07-17T06:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tsunami waves from the M8.8 Russia coastline #earthquake continue to travel across the Pacific this morning with waves around [---] metres in height affecting French Polynesia just after midnight NZT. Small tsunami waves around 15cm in height have been arriving onto Great Barrier Island in the last few hours with tsunami ripples entering Auckland's Waitemata harbour from around 4:30am. Civil defence national advisory for tsunami activity associated with strong and unpredictable surges remains in place for all NZ water as of 6:30am [--] July" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1950625068465438779) 2025-07-30T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "An unusually large M5.6 earthquake about 100km inland from the Sunshine Coast SE Queensland. Region: Kilkivan QLD Mag: [---] UTC: 2025-08-15 23:49:25 Lat: [------] Lon: [------] Dep: 2km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/cC5u76URAN Region: Kilkivan QLD Mag: [---] UTC: 2025-08-15 23:49:25 Lat: [------] Lon: [------] Dep: 2km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/cC5u76URAN" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1956522491582849253) 2025-08-16T01:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Snow is being modelled by the Euro & UK on Northland's Waima range on Tuesday evening. This upper trough is about to deliver peak winter for the upper North Island" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1957176757804757477) 2025-08-17T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A sequence of events for climate drivers affecting NZ and Australia are potentially about to align if models verify. An incoming back-to-back La Nina a negative Indian Ocean dipole a strong MJO pulse and a sudden stratospheric warming event could all line up during September. What comes next could set up wildly volatile Spring weather patterns for the mid latitudes of NZ & Australia" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1959767940892663933) 2025-08-25T00:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There was a very rare deep earthquake under the Coromandel township this morning. The magnitude [---] quake at a depth of 303km was registered at 6:26am and verified this afternoon by GeoNet. Quakes at this depth within the asthenosphere of the upper mantle are common in the Taupo Volcanic Zone to the south-east but not so within the extinct Coromandel Volcanic zone" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1959804026306146554) 2025-08-25T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "An influx of heat from the troposphere is starting to propagate upward and is about to trigger a significant sudden stratospheric warming above the Antarctic continent this week. The world largest weather system the stratospheric polar vortex will be weakened & displaced north by Saturday. In [----] a similar stratospheric event caused NZ's coldest and windiest October for nearly a decade. No [--] events are the same though as other climate driver factors like an incoming La Nina pattern are different this time round. One to 👀closely" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962301837727633631) 2025-08-31T23:49Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements "An interesting M1.6 micro-earthquake under Northland at 1:22am this morning. Its epicenter was on a dormant fault line that runs to the west of Whangaroa harbour and was too small to be felt. It is the first earthquake measured within a [--] km radius for the local area since the 1963-1964 sequence that involved several moderate earthquakes including three around M 4.5" [X Link](https://x.com/HaurakiGulfWx/status/1962984056695783445) 2025-09-02T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@HaurakiGulfWx Hauraki Gulf Weather
Hauraki Gulf Weather posts on X about fiji, island, euro, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.84%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.90%
- [--] Months [------] -43%
- [--] Year [-------] +52%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [--] +29%
- [--] Months [--] +35%
- [--] Year [--] -21%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.10%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.30%
- [--] Months [-----] +2.70%
- [--] Year [-----] +8%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries currencies finance automotive brands travel destinations
Social topic influence fiji, island, euro, in the, vanuatu, new caledonia #29, norfolk island, model, tonga, earthquake
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @weatherwatchnz @nicholasphilp @wenzhaocomment @royneary77 @scottyp6849 @sueonlineed @tamithaskov @skyalertmx @vincentledvina @petertgallagher @spacewxwatch @weatherpaulg @therealgregjack @savvyvanuatu @birdexplorers @snowleopard1 @mewindy @noaas @sakakimoana
Top assets mentioned Flare (FLR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"#Invest98P has developed into a depression over the Coral Sea to the E of the Far North Queensland Coast. #98P is becoming likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by later in the week as it travels eastward towards New Caledonia. Tracking details at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2"
X Link 2022-01-29T19:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Invest92P launching an explosive hot tower this morning just north New Caledonia. It's centre is circulating over 29c sea surface temps and wind shear is becoming favourable. Chances of becoming a cyclone are increasing. NZ needs to keep 👀Details at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1"
X Link 2022-02-06T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Invest92P has become more organised overnight. Pressure now down to [---] hPa on New Caledonia's Lifou Island. Deep convection starting to wrap into towards a consolidating low with equatorward and poleward outflow visible. NZ needs to keep 👀Tracking at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1"
X Link 2022-02-07T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#invest92P pressure continues to slowly drop as it moves ESE. Estimated barometric around [---] hPa. Tanna Island Vanuatu now down to [---] hPa. Winds gusts at Port Vila now [--] knots. Tracking at https://haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1"
X Link 2022-02-08T22:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"South Island rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 6:30pm Aug 16th 216mm Cropp Rv 207mm Tuke Rv 196mm Goldney Ridge 190mm Colliers ck 130mm Hokitika rv Gorge 128mm Mt Browning 126mm Taipo Rv 121mm Buckland Peaks 116mm Lake Brunner Sources: Private NIWA"
X Link 2022-08-16T06:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"NZ rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 9:00am Aug 17th 348mm Cropp Rv 321mm Tuke Rv 287mm Colliers ck 281mm Goldney Ridge 254mm Aorere rv Perry Saddle 199mm Hokitika rv Gorge 190mm Buckland Peaks Sources: Private & envirodata"
X Link 2022-08-16T21:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"NZ rain event 15-21 Aug: Highest running totals to 7pm Aug 17th 446mm Anatoki rv @ Paradise 416mm Anatoki rv @ Happy Sams 403mm Buckland Peaks 400mm Aorere rv @ Perry Saddle 376mm Cropp Rv 352mm Goldney Ridge 345mm Tuke Rv 321mm Takaka @ Canaan Sources: Private & envirodata"
X Link 2022-08-17T07:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A snaking convergence zone of heavy rain is developing from Northland into Auckland. Many private weather stations under this zone in Auckland are well above 100mm+ for the day so far. Hobsonville Point 141mm Kumeu 153mm to 3pm"
X Link 2023-01-27T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Water vapour image today is showing a fujiwhara effect has developed 5km above the Tasman. [--] upper tropospheric cyclonic vortexes are dancing with each other about 1000km apart. The main vortex near Norfolk Island will consume its weaker rival becoming the main show later today"
X Link 2023-01-28T23:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A large baroclinic leaf appearing this morning along with a water vapour surge with equatorial origins transporting southward. The upper low near Norfolk Island has primed the atmosphere for a new developing surface low in the subtropics"
X Link 2023-01-29T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneGabrielle is now a fully transitioned subtropical cyclone motoring SE and only around 200km NW of Norfolk Island. Lightning strikes ahead of a surface trough pressure down to [-----] hPa on the Island at 11:10am local (1.10pm NZT)"
X Link 2023-02-11T00:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneGabrielle closes in on Norfolk Island this evening. Barometric pressure is [-----] hPa and still falling at 6:40pm NZT. A drop of [--] hPa in [--] hours"
X Link 2023-02-11T05:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Overnight #CycloneGabrielle moved over Norfolk Island with pressure bottoming at [-----] hPa. Water vapour imagery this morning displaying that Gabrielle is starting to develop a scorpion tail 'sting jet' signature as it transitions to becoming a strong extratropical cyclone"
X Link 2023-02-11T17:02Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements
"Taking a look at how models performed [--] hours before #CycloneGabrielle 's placement/path at 1am Tuesday [--] Feb. Incredible performance by the UK model nailing placement pressure & change of direction. Pressure of [-----] hPa was recorded at Claris airport on Great Barrier Island"
X Link 2023-02-15T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"RSMC Nadi have named Tropical cyclone Judy this afternoon. Pressure now [---] hPa max winds [--] knots category [--]. Tracking at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1 https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone1"
X Link 2023-02-27T01:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Part [--] of a rain event sequence is coming together this morning as tropical moisture is being dragged down by a subtropical low near Norfolk Island. A vigorous wet E to NE flow today to Mon. Part [--] needs to be 👀closely as a meandering convergence zone lurks Wed to Sat"
X Link 2023-04-28T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This evenings weather models projections show quite some uncertainty to where heavy rain associated with a NE to East wind convergence will intensify on early Friday morning. OZ and U.S models is a sample. More certainty within the next [--] hours"
X Link 2023-07-17T07:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GFS model for the AAO (SAM index) is projecting height anomalies coupling downwards from the stratosphere into the troposphere in the 2nd half of August. A vigorous westerly weather pattern for NZ with propagating polar upper troughs is likely to be on the menu if it verifies"
X Link 2023-08-09T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Upward volcanic lightning from the Acatenango Volcano in Guatemala"
X Link 2023-08-18T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Nocturnal tropical cyclone intensification with inner core lightning has turned tropical storm Idalia into #HurricaneIdalia. (ATCF) 06z has reclassified to Hurricane status NHC update to follow. Now moving into the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida. Pressure [---] mb Winds [--] knots"
X Link 2023-08-29T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The evolution of Cat [--] Major #Hurricane #IDALIA inner eyewall on microwave imagery (last 24hrs). NHC projecting landfall to be a cat [--] with a brutal 3.5m to 5m storm surge. Landfall likely 8am local (12am NZT) Current obs Air pressure 945mb Wind 104kts (193 km/h) (120 mph)"
X Link 2023-08-30T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cloud increasing today with some isolated showers & easterlies as a Tasman low creeps closer. There is still uncertainty on the near-term rainfall outlook as it will depend on where an E to NE convergence zone positions itself on Sun into Mon. Latest euro rainfall projection"
X Link 2023-09-01T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Latest Precip water imagery showing a snaking convergence zone between a Tasman low & a southern high drifting towards upper North this morning. It will meander slowly southward over the next [--] hrs as the low dissolves over the Tasman. Decent rain can be expected in this zone"
X Link 2023-09-02T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The East to NE wind convergence zone is snaking into the gulf this afternoon. Its generating moderate rain on its southern flank and heading towards parts of Auckland for this evening"
X Link 2023-09-04T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its been a wet first week of Sept for the upper North Island with widespread [--] to 80mm across the region. Areas in the Hunua Ranges above 100mm & the Coromandel Ranges near 200mm. Best performing global model for weekly rainfall est. on [--] Aug 12z was the UK poorest was GFS"
X Link 2023-09-07T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Precipitable water values are increasing over the Tasman as a tropical fed convergence zone develops ahead of a front & associated upper trough. Heavy rain is likely ahead of the frontal boundary on late Sat into Sun for the upper North then a new low will form in its wake"
X Link 2023-09-21T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A concerning model projection trend for many areas of the North Island especially the eastern side on the latest model runs this morning. [--] day rainfall accumulation totals will cause issues if they verify. The U.S GFS model is less extreme but is now an outlier"
X Link 2023-09-21T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting quake sequence under the Mt Tarawera volcano today within the Haroharo Caldera 25km SE of Rotorua. There have been [--] small shallow quakes so far ranging from M1.8 to M2.7. Before today GeoNet has only ever recorded [--] quakes in this location. Mt Tarawera last erupted on 10th June [----] and represented a [--] on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) destroying the famous pink and white terraces. Thanks to GeoNet publicly sharing data we keep an 👁 on the North Island volcanoes on our website at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/volcano-centre"
X Link 2023-09-25T05:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some interesting weather model runs this morning. The UK model going with a bow echo-induced squall line through Auckland around sunrise. Winds running at 1.5km above the surface can mix downward on the frontal boundary. Possible 130km/h+ gusts if that model run verifies"
X Link 2023-09-28T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RoyNeary77 Delays are possible. Also harbour bridge and ferries might have delay issues if that matters getting there"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Another Tonga submarine volcano to keep an eye on. Satellite imagery on [--] September from NASA's Sentinel Urban false colour composite suggests the South Pacific Volcano is awakening again. It appears (at least from satellite) that the Home Reef volcano in Tonga has been erupting since September 24th [----]. I say this due to discolored water patches and numerous thermal detections. Note: My assessment could be wrong. #tonga #geology #volcano #eruption It appears (at least from satellite) that the Home Reef volcano in Tonga has been erupting since September 24th [----]. I say this due to"
X Link 2023-10-01T06:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Something is brewing aloft with a large area of warmer than normal air developing in the upper stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere during September. Weather models are projecting this pool of air to breach and weaken the Polar vortex over Antarctica in the next week. This could lead to a sequence of significant fronts launching from the Southern Ocean towards NZ making the 2nd half of October colder & windy than normal. One to keep an 👁 on"
X Link 2023-10-03T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Clear blue skies over the Gulf today a nice change from the turbulent & wet Sept we just endured. The seasonal turning point of the sea surface temps surrounding the upper North is now underway currently 15c & slowly rising as solar radiation increases as we near summer"
X Link 2023-10-04T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🌀The first 2023-24 cyclone season forecast for the South Pacific basin out from the Euro ensemble today. From months November to April its guidance is projecting Six tropical cyclones made up of - Four Category [--] to [--] Two Category [--] & above The last strong El Nio in 2015-16 was a significant impact season for the South Pacific. Made up of [--] cyclones [--] were severe which included Category [--] TC Winston that became the strongest ever South Pacific tropical cyclone ever recorded with pressure dropping to [---] hPa. No cyclones impacted NZ for that season"
X Link 2023-10-05T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Latest Sentinel [--] satellite urban false colour composite imagery taken yesterday suggests that the Tonga Home Reef volcano continues to erupt. The South Pacific's newest island seems to have grown by around [---] metres southward since the [--] September image"
X Link 2023-10-10T04:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its been [--] months today since the major Tonga volcanic eruption. Of late the global surface temp trend has been tracking similar to the [----] Novarupta Alaskan eruption until last month where is has now significantly spiked warmer than post any other major eruption of the last [--] centuries at the same stage. High levels of water vapour still remain trapped in the upper stratosphere but there is now intriguing signs that some of it is lowering to the mid stratosphere. This global climatic event is still playing out"
X Link 2023-10-15T05:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Commencing to track tropical low 01U (BoM allocated) 1200km NE of Vanuatu. Weak low level circulation is underway sea surface temp 30c. Likely to encounter favourable atmospheric conditions for further development this weekend"
X Link 2023-10-18T07:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🌀The latest (run 18z) from GEFS ensemble members has a wide spread beyond [--] days from now. But several are developing a severe tropical cyclone north of Vanuatu. Longer term the timing of a mid-latitude trough will determine if it takes a NZ exit door. Too early to know atm"
X Link 2023-10-19T01:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Deep convective hot towers pluming into the stratosphere as [--] kts winds have now been reached making the low north of Vanuatu now tropical cyclone 01P named by JTWC. The U.S agency projects it to be a [---] knot cat [--] TC by Tues morning. Fiji Met likely to name the cyclone today"
X Link 2023-10-21T20:59Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements
"Fiji Met have named tropical #cycloneLOLA this afternoon. The pre-season storm is only the 7th South Pacific cyclone to be named in October since 1970"
X Link 2023-10-22T05:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneLola's eye is clearing out with frequent inner eyewall lightning signaling it is in a maturing phase. Currently centred around 250km NE of Vanuatu's Banks Islands heading southward. Satellite intensity estimates have winds at [--] knots now unofficially a category 3"
X Link 2023-10-23T00:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneLola continues to strengthen this evening. The U.S Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system (ATCF) has just upgraded sustained winds to [--] knots unofficially making it a category 4"
X Link 2023-10-23T07:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneLola is a top shelf South Pacific goliath this morning with the infamous truck tyre look on IR satellite imagery. Latest surface wind estimates around [---] knots barometric air pressure in the mid 940's. Approaching Vanuatu during today"
X Link 2023-10-23T17:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CylcloneLola continues to mature with the inner eyewall once again erupting with lightning. The outer eyewall is now starting to rake Vanuatu's Maewo & Pentecost Islands. Sea surface temp over its next 100km is 27c wind shear remains favourable. Catastrophic impact likely on its southern side this afternoon into tonight. Cat [--] Pressure [---] hPa Winds [---] kts (222 km/h) Gusts [---] kts (280 km/h) Speed [--] kts (11 km/h)"
X Link 2023-10-24T01:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Category [--] severe #CycloneLola continues to slowly grind through the Vanuatu archipelago this morning. Microwave imagery shows it has become asymmetrical with deep convection and strong winds on the south side. Longer term its weakened vortex will pass over New Caledonia by Friday then merge with an upper low transitioning to a subtropical depression as it move towards NZ on the weekend. More to come on this soon"
X Link 2023-10-24T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Latest [--] member GEFS ensemble (18z) has several members including GFS projecting #CycloneLola's vortex being re-energised around Norfolk Island from an upper trough on Saturday. This would likely bring a vigorous east to northeasterly wind flow with heavy rain at times into the upper North on late Sunday & Monday if it verifies"
X Link 2023-10-25T00:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Major #hurricaneOtis has gone from a tropical storm to a landfall Cat [--] hurricane within [--] hrs near Acapulco Mexico. The rapid intensification was not forecast NHC forecast a TS with max winds of [--] mph [--] hrs ago it has just made landfall at [---] mph One of the greatest weather model busts of all time"
X Link 2023-10-25T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"High cloud has cleared above ex-tc Lola exposing the low level vortex spinning around 200km SE of New Caledonia. The low is now moving SSE and will commence the extratropical cyclone transition this evening to the east of Norfolk Island"
X Link 2023-10-27T22:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cloud tops temps breaching -70c on convective plumes on the south east quadrant of the deepening low with intermittent lightning . Pressure down to around [----] hPa position around 300km ENE of Norfolk Island"
X Link 2023-10-28T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Low level jet stream is starting to ramp up over the far North. Cape Reinga now clocking gusts near [---] km/h (70 knots)"
X Link 2023-10-28T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Our live camera this evening is focused on the easterly storm surge heading into the seawall as the high tide is coming into Waitemata harbour. Waves already smashing over the wall [--] hour before high tide at 8:37pm"
X Link 2023-10-29T06:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Both the GEFS (U.S) & Access-S (Oz) ensembles are now picking a moderate to strong MJO pulse in the 2nd week of November in the West Pacific. This means the tropics could become quite active on the South Pacific convergence zone if the projections hold up. One to keep an 👁on"
X Link 2023-10-30T23:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Strong G3 geomagnetic storm now penetrating earth's magnetosphere. A combined CME impact and coronal hole high speed streams means very active space weather over the next [--] to [--] hours. Potential aurora australis far north if conditions continue tonight"
X Link 2023-11-05T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Right on cue - A West Pacific MJO pulse projected in late Oct continues to verify with global models now projecting a synoptic scale cyclonic gyre developing near the Solomon Islands this weekend. Chances of the another South Pacific tropical cyclone increase next week. 👁🌀"
X Link 2023-11-06T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🌀Tropical low 91P has been named 700km NE of the Solomon Islands. The first GEFS ensemble forecast track map projects a southward moving system by the weekend. Vanuatu & Fiji needs to keep an 👁on this low's movements. We are now tracking 91P at"
X Link 2023-11-07T01:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"IR satellite image this morning showing a deep convective hot tower erupting into the stratosphere on the northern quadrant of tropical low 91P. Centre currently 500km NNW of Vanuatu 1500km NW of Fiji. Stronger poleward outflow also appearing as the low consolidates"
X Link 2023-11-10T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The BoM's Access G model this morning has upgraded projected intensity to a high impact cat [--] cyclone on Fiji Wed AM. Globally over the last few months Access G has performed well on early detection of rapid intensification 🌀before other models. SST's are 28c on approach"
X Link 2023-11-11T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low 91P is now moving closer to a favorable corridor of wind shear (15 to [--] knots) along with sea surface temps of 29c. Sustained winds up to [--] knots giving it tropical storm level status"
X Link 2023-11-12T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The sun setting tonight on newly named tropical #cycloneMal highlighting its bubbling cumulonimbus clouds near the developing eyewall. Already nearing cat [--] sustained winds now up to [--] knots (83 km/h) pressure down to [---] hPa position around 850km/h NW of Fiji tracking SE"
X Link 2023-11-13T07:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning tropical #cycloneMal has intensified overnight and is currently [--] knots (102 km/h) sustained winds pressure [---] hPa. JTWC has now upgraded Mal to be a [--] knot cat [--] system on the western edge of Fiji later today"
X Link 2023-11-13T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical #cycloneMal's eyewall sparking with a barrage of lightning strikes on daybreak. A behavioral sign that continued intensification and maturing is underway. Latest observations from U.S satellite estimating has sustained winds at [--] knots (111 km/h) pressure [---] hPa"
X Link 2023-11-13T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Latest U.S satellite plot estimate now has tropical #cycloneMal with max sustained winds at [--] knots. The NE quadrant is becoming the destructive zone of the storm. Fiji's Yasawa Islands & the western side of Viti Levu could enter this zone Wed AM if the storm S wobbles east"
X Link 2023-11-14T00:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Severe tropical #cycloneMal upgraded to cat [--] this morning by Fiji Met Service. Max winds [--] knots (120 km/h) pressure down to [---] hPa tracking SE at [--] knots. The outer eyewall raking the western edge of Viti Levu. Mal has peaked & now encountering wind shear of 25-30 knots"
X Link 2023-11-14T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Asperitas clouds arriving over the upper North (formerly known as the Undulatus asperatus). Lots of instability aloft to produce this cloud specimen. The cloud type was officially added to the Intl Cloud Atlas by WMO in [----] the first new cloud since cirrus intortus 1951"
X Link 2023-11-17T00:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Ulawun volcano major eruption in Papua New Guinea yesterday. The eruptive column busting through the tropopause into the stratosphere"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Notable shallow earthquake 290km north of Port Vila Vanuatu"
X Link 2023-11-22T05:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2 shallow microquakes within the Auckland volcanic field under the gulf this morning. They were centered 25km NE of Auckland 11km NE of Rangitoto 4km N of Waiheke Is. The first was a M0.7 @ 3:18am followed by a M1.2 @ 4:51am. The last quake in this area was a M1.5 on 1.5.2019"
X Link 2023-11-22T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ScottyP6849 Too early to know at this stage for Auckland. But stay tuned in the week ahead as the Tasman and tropics are likely to come alive"
X Link 2023-11-27T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Right on cue GFS model is projecting a synoptic scale tropical cyclonic gyre nth of Vanuatu next week. While a Tasman convergence zone drags down tropical moisture towards the Nth Island. If it verifies it means Sth Pacific's 3rd🌀for the season & more rain for the Nth Island"
X Link 2023-11-28T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"NASA has modelled some very active space weather earth bound within the next [--] hours. NOAA's next [--] day space weather forecast will drop at 1:30pm NZT tmrw. After today's high end earth facing M class solar blast it could have a strong G3 magnetic storm forecast on the cards"
X Link 2023-11-29T06:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BoM's space weather forecasters are projecting a possible severe G4 geomagnetic storm on Fri evening NZ time. Breaching this level would cause large ionosphere disturbances. High impact on radio frequencies & GPS with the Aurora Australis dancing towards the upper North Island"
X Link 2023-11-30T05:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tonight a newly named tropical low is consolidating 1000km NE of Vanuatu. Agency names are 92P (JTWC) & 02U (BoM) . It's circulating over sea surface temps of 31c the warmest on the planet. Tracking westward wind shear improves this weekend with tropical cyclone strength likely in the next [--] hrs as it approaches the Solomon Islands. Longer term there is risk of further intensification over the Coral Sea north of New Caledonia early next week. We are now tracking at"
X Link 2023-12-01T07:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The latest euro ensemble showing tropical low 92P has very wide spread from its members beyond [---] hours due to the strength uncertainty of the subtropical ridge. A stronger ridge brings the Queensland coast into play a weaker ridge means it steers into the northern Tasman"
X Link 2023-12-01T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tropical low 92P is now centered just to the east of the Solomon Islands. Its moving into a favourable windshear environment of [--] to [--] knots. The systems structure will slowly improve during today as it crawls west. Beyond [--] hrs the Coral Sea sea surface temps are 28-29c"
X Link 2023-12-02T22:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Latest image of the sun displaying a massive coronal hole turning towards our planet. High speed solar winds are due to arrive @ earth within hours & space weather will intensify accordingly. NOAA's forecast is for a possible G2 level geomagnetic storm from 10pm to 1am NZT"
X Link 2023-12-04T07:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tropical low 92P this morning is now centered just S of the Solomon Islands over 29c seas with a deep convective hot tower punching into the stratosphere in the southern quadrants. With no land interaction its structure will improve & likely be cyclone strength later today"
X Link 2023-12-04T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"JTWC names tropical cyclone 03P just South of the Solomon Islands. Projecting a [---] knot beast in the central Coral Sea within [--] hours. the official name from BoM coming soon which will be tropical #CycloneJasper"
X Link 2023-12-05T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A fine & settled pre-Xmas dry spell is moving in for the upper North Island SW winds temps low to mid 20s. High pressure will bulldoze low pressure out of the region meaning very little to no rain for the next [--] wks. It also means that NZ will be protected from #CycloneJasper"
X Link 2023-12-06T18:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low 93P has been named by JTWC 800km north-west of Samoa and joins tropical #CycloneJasper as monitored tropical systems in the South Pacific. Still early days but the GFS model projects the potential development of a tropical cyclone next weekend around Samoa"
X Link 2023-12-10T05:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Water vapour imagery shows that NW wind shear & dry air has decimated tropical #cycloneJasper overnight. BoM wind obs at Lihou Reef suggests its barely a category [--] now. JTWC has downgraded to a tropical storm. It needs wind shear to ease to regain structure before landfall"
X Link 2023-12-10T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@nicholasphilp GFS model currently projects a windy & wet tropical low this Saturday around Samoa moving SE"
X Link 2023-12-10T18:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The final warming of the Southern Hemisphere's Polar Vortex is forecast tmrw. Zonal winds @ [--] hPa will turn from westerly to easterly signifying the death of the planet's largest weather system for [----]. Its major influence on NZ will diminish by Jan before returning in Autumn"
X Link 2023-12-12T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Latest from NOAA's premier hurricane model HAFS has #CycloneJasper coming off the Coral sea in the mid 970's hPa [--] kts Cat [--]. Ocean depth between the Great Barrier Reef & landfall is shallow (10 to 30m) so little cold water upwelling. Plenty of energy for Jasper on approach"
X Link 2023-12-12T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The global weather model's nemesis is the Gulf of Carpentaria. Every season they struggle to align & correctly project the behaviour of tropical lows that meander around its waters. Ex #CycloneJasper will be no different as displayed on the Super ensemble of the EuroUSUK & CA"
X Link 2023-12-14T20:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Far North QLD region has had [--] to [--] metres of rain in last [--] days from #CycloneJasper. How did models do [--] days ago here were the max. accum rainfall totals that global models projected. 1383mm = (AU) 1204mm = UK 903mm = DE 809mm = Euro 747mm = CA 570mm = U.S (GFS)"
X Link 2023-12-18T06:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🌀Ex-#CycloneJasper's (94SP) weak circulation over the Gulf of Carpentaria is being monitored by the BoM & JTWC. The latest Euro ensemble run (18z) has [--] members upgrading the system to tropical cyclone status in the Coral Sea between X-mas & NY. Still one to keep an 👁 on"
X Link 2023-12-20T01:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It is time to say good-bye to [----] in what was a year of notable historical weather events for upper North Island. We will finish the year with a prefrontal rainband that will unfortunately dampen NYE festivities. Here were some observation highlights across the upper North Island over the year up until 7am [--] Dec. Max Temp: 31.8c Whangarei 22nd Jan Min Temp: -0.7c Hunua [--] Jul Daily mean temp: 16.1c recorded from our weather station on the North Shore Auckland. Wettest place: 6076mm Pinnacles Coromandel Ranges Driest place: 1201mm Gulf Harbour Lowest barometric air pressure: [-----] hPa Claris"
X Link 2023-12-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Intense thunderstorm cell slowly heading northward near Tauranga at 7:20pm. MetService currently have a Severe thunderstorm warning on this cell"
X Link 2024-01-06T06:28Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Plenty of sun with a warm humid north-easterly flow for at least the next week across the upper North Island. A subtropical low will likely develop around Norfolk Island on Thurs & be guided by the ridge westward towards Oz no impacts for NZ in the next [--] days"
X Link 2024-01-07T06:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WeatherWatchNZ Big congrats on the launch & well done on making more weather data & alerts easily accessible to the public via the app. 👏"
X Link 2024-01-09T05:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2 years today at 5:14pm (NZ and local time) the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far occurred at the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai submarine volcano. Atmospheric and ocean impacts were felt across the globe with a tsunami smashing into parts of the upper North Island destroying many marine vessels in Northland's Tutukaka harbour. A regional detailed timeline with photos video of the lead up and event can be viewed at Over the last [--] years we have been tracking the global temperature change with several scientific journals printed in [----] forecasting a temperature spike in the years"
X Link 2024-01-15T04:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Euro weather model is currently producing an upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex over the North Island early next week if it verifies. Cold core cut off low's in summer can produce very unstable weather with thunderstorm outbreaks over several days. One to 👀 closely"
X Link 2024-01-24T07:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical #CycloneKirrily now a cat [--] continues to be a asymmetrical storm but is now attempting to enclose an inner eyewall as it approaches the Nth Qld coast. Winds gusts 109km/h on Flinders reef. Its trochoidal forward motion means uncertainty of the exact crossing location"
X Link 2024-01-25T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ex-Tropical #cycloneKirrily continues to dump rain over central Qld with a 'brown ocean effect' helping it to maintain its vortex. Main global models now agree that Ex-Tc Kirrily sheds a new vortex over SE Qld which moves NE into the Coral Sea next week & becomes a tropical low"
X Link 2024-01-28T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not many raindrops over the next [--] weeks for the upper North Island as the Sub-tropical Ridge creates a defensive wall from tropical lows to the North. Fiji Met Service are keeping an eye on invest 94P (TD05F) & 95P (TD06F) as both lows meander & await for favourable conditions"
X Link 2024-02-04T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The German wx model Icon in the past few days has continued to project a cat [--] tropical cyclone from Tropical Low 94P around New Caledonia this weekend. On the latest run the U.S GFS model has started to align with the idea. NZ always needs to keep a👀on this TC breeding ground"
X Link 2024-02-05T05:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning's water vapour image displaying the tropics with [--] active low's from New Caledonia to French Polynesia. One being cat [--] tropical cyclone Nat approaching Bora Bora. The Subtropics has a strong ridge providing a barrier with ongoing dry conditions for the North Island"
X Link 2024-02-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This morning there are now [--] named tropical cyclones in the South Pacific. Nat & Osai currently cat 1's around 1100km apart between Samoa & French Polynesia. A 3rd tropical low 94P near New Caledonia displaying lightning active deep convective hot towers"
X Link 2024-02-07T18:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Hadley cell has now anchored into a summer position across the mid latitudes with a conveyor belt of high pressure systems circling the southern hemisphere. The dry weather pattern continues for the upper North Island over the next week and could continue into late February"
X Link 2024-02-11T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Space weather has moved up a gear up this weekend. Todays near X class solar flare from sunspot [----] caused a R2 radio blackout over the South Pacific & a possible incoming Geomagnetic storm to impact earth 14-15 Feb. The sunspot is huge & active needs to 👀closely this week. Strong M9.04 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/AHjUk3QWrK Strong M9.04 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/AHjUk3QWrK"
X Link 2024-02-11T05:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Latest seasonal climate model projections from CFS v2 continue to lock in a flip back to La Nia by Spring. With sea surface temps already elevated in the South Pacific from an unusual El Nio immense ocean energy is becoming likely to couple with the atmosphere by next Summer. NOAA's seasonal climate model CFS v2 continues to project that El Nio will be short lived with a flip back to La Nia by next Spring. One to 👀for NZ especially the North Island. https://t.co/JKMSDGCLc7 NOAA's seasonal climate model CFS v2 continues to project that El Nio will be short lived with a flip back to La Nia by"
X Link 2024-02-13T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SueOnlineEd Sure. Ocean & Atmosphere has the potential to produce well above average rainfall later this year & early [----] for the upper North & eastern areas of the North Island if an moderate to strong La Nina develops"
X Link 2024-02-13T06:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"JTWC has named tropical cyclone 15P this morning that is now moving over the southern Cook Islands. Its likely to have an official name from Fiji Met Service this PM. Rarotonga will be in the firing line early Saturday morning. No risk to NZ as its exits the tropics well east"
X Link 2024-02-15T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"👀Both the Euro & US model ensembles are producing a strong MJO pulse over the West Pacific phase heading into Mid March. This could trigger a large weather pattern change for the North Island with tropical moisture pushing into mid-latitudes on a NE wind flow heavy 🌧potential"
X Link 2024-03-01T01:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A classic squall line signature appearing on the radar over the Tasman heading at Auckland & the upper North Island. Expect a brief intense burst of wind and rain as it moves through your area this evening"
X Link 2024-03-04T06:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Global weather models now aligning on a MJO induced cyclonic gyre forming on the South Pacific Convergence Zone next week. The Euro producing a Coral Sea cat [--] others a tropical depression. If they verify the North Island needs to keep a close 👁on an exiting tropical low. 👀Both the Euro & US model ensembles are producing a strong MJO pulse over the West Pacific phase heading into Mid March. This could trigger a large weather pattern change for the North Island with tropical moisture pushing into mid-latitudes on a NE wind flow heavy 🌧potential. https://t.co/OiRMHdLx7d 👀Both the Euro & US"
X Link 2024-03-04T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Enhanced moisture & wind convergence are in the mix this weekend over the South Pacific as a tropical depression near Vanuatu develops with multiple circulation centres. Mostly fine for the upper North Island over the next [--] days with low pressure drifting towards Norfolk Island"
X Link 2024-03-08T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tropical low 92P embedded in the South Pacific Convergence Zone is meandering around Vanuatu today as a MJO pulse travels over the Maritime continent triggering a 2nd round of the Australian monsoon. The tropics will become more active this week as the MJO pulse travels east"
X Link 2024-03-10T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rain is on its way for Saturday morning as a weakening Tasman low crawls across the North Island. The rain will start before sunrise on the upper North's west coast & move east during the morning with showers clearing during the afternoon. Expect [--] to 20mm"
X Link 2024-03-22T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cloudless skies on Easter Sunday over the Gulf as high pressure moves in sending dry southerlies into the upper North"
X Link 2024-03-30T22:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"👀 The Polar vortex is becoming one to watch as it's mid level becomes elongated this weekend over the South Pole. This could lead to a weakening of the polar jet stream triggering a vigorous long wave trough northward & unseasonal cold snap across NZ during the 1st week of May"
X Link 2024-04-22T05:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Models are now locking onto an upper cut off low forming near the upper North Island on Tuesday. Still some uncertainty but becoming likely to be unsettled with a converging northerly flow turning east to south-easterly. Expect showers & downpours on Monday & Tuesday"
X Link 2024-05-03T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3rd largest solar flare of solar cycle [--] overnight as sunspot region [----] continues to be highly active. This weeks batch of X class flares while producing radio blackouts have not produced any sizable coronal mass ejection event so geomagnetic storm levels remain muted. Major X4.52 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/zTaDlfPQCz Major X4.52 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/zTaDlfPQCz"
X Link 2024-05-06T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A lively weekend ahead for Aurora Australis hunters across NZ. It's likely to be a sustained bombardment of plasma and magnetic field directed at earth's magnetosphere. It's a #solarstorm train We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth Storm [--] [--] and [--] will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph imagery. Impacts start around midday May [--] and will continue through late May [--] at least. G3-level conditions & extended #aurora possible. https://t.co/7OZihcJ0xG It's a #solarstorm train We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth Storm [--] [--] and [--] will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph"
X Link 2024-05-09T06:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"NOAA has just issued a G4 severe solar storm watch the first in [--] years"
X Link 2024-05-09T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The great solar storm of [----] continues. Auckland Coromandel & Northland images when another G5 level geomagnetic surge peaked last night. A potentially stronger cloud of plasma is on it's way from multiple CME's. ETA for earth's magnetosphere tonight & tomorrow morning"
X Link 2024-05-11T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Latest radar showing some embedded heavy downpours within a rainband ahead of a warm front over the Tasman. Expect a wet morning on Wednesday with occasional downpours maybe a rumble of thunder and periods of rain. Keep the ☂ handy"
X Link 2024-05-14T07:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Notable M6.6 on the Tonga-Kermadec Ridge 100km west of the the plate boundary. Prelim M6.6 Earthquake Tonga May-26 20:47 UTC updates https://t.co/JRG6IR0Y7x Prelim M6.6 Earthquake Tonga May-26 20:47 UTC updates https://t.co/JRG6IR0Y7x"
X Link 2024-05-26T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A major X class flare on the suns SE limb. This is potentially from infamous sunspot region [----] which barraged earth in the first half of May & is now rotating back from the far side. Soon to be facing earth again. Major X2.9 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/wX2SD0g5Q0 Major X2.9 flare Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/wX2SD0g5Q0"
X Link 2024-05-27T07:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Quite an active radar over the Tasman heading towards Auckland this evening. Currently lightning strikes behind the initial rainband where the upper trough is injecting polar air. Our live stream camera is pointing west towards the city skyline tonight. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=itFvf_Xtw9Y https://www.youtube.com/watchv=itFvf_Xtw9Y"
X Link 2024-05-28T05:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Several lightning strikes over SW Auckland last night as an active front moved in. The next lively front is due to arrive around midday across the upper North and it will be followed by a ferocious south-westerly. Auckland harbour bridge closures should be expected during PM"
X Link 2024-05-28T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A solar radiation storm has been underway during this afternoon NZT and has now reached the rare & strong S3 level. Strong S3 Solar Radiation Storm - Degraded HF radio at polar regions and navigation position errors satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers Follow live on https://t.co/HAKRHFIDdF https://t.co/vbYQfurfSl Strong S3 Solar Radiation Storm - Degraded HF radio at polar regions and navigation position errors satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents radiation hazard to"
X Link 2024-06-08T08:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Another [--] to 50mm overnight across the Auckland & the Gulf Islands has meant June rainfall accumulation is now starting to track above average with most areas ranging from 100mm to 200mm for the month"
X Link 2024-06-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🚨 A potential sudden stratospheric warming event over Antarctica is being projected for late next week by the GFS model on the last [--] model runs. For the Southern Hemisphere these are rare and can dramatically change weather patterns in the mid latitudes around [--] to [--] weeks after they occur. The last event occurred in September [----]. This event is currently projected as a minor SSW with the upper westerly winds slowing dramatically around mid July. If models verify the upper atmospheric disturbance could significantly weaken the polar vortex & eventually couple down into troposphere causing"
X Link 2024-07-02T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Over the last [--] days clear stable weather has enabled vigorous plumes to observed coming out of the Whahaari / White Island volcano. Having a closer look at the latest Sentinel [--] satellite urban false colour composite imagery on [--] July it suggests that the Volcano now has a hot spot at the surface compared to last month. GeoNet currently holds the volcano at alert level 2"
X Link 2024-07-11T01:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's the whole Southern Hemisphere measuring zonal mean sea level pressure at 40S (mid-latitudes) and 65S. So currently there is higher than average air pressure over Antarctica & lower of mid latitudes. Timing of any major cold outbreaks on NZ weather is still an unknown with strongest Rossby wave around Sth America atm"
X Link 2024-07-28T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The infamous twin sister stratospheric polar vortex formation is now being modelled by NOAA's GFS model & NASA's GOES over the Antarctic continent on 4/5th August at [--] hPa. Westerly winds on the Euro ensemble plunging [--] knots @ [--] hPa across the Southern Hemisphere around the same period. Coupling into troposphere by 2nd week of August showing up on the GFS projected SAM (AAO) index. Medium term weather models for mid latitude countries could become volatile from mid August if this SSW event continues to verify"
X Link 2024-07-30T23:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A strong Aurora Australis reached the upper North Island overnight. This was captured from the Coromandel Peninsula near the height of the severe G4 geomagnetic solar storm early this morning. Credit Monalie Evangelista Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8) Threshold Reached: 14:42 UTC Follow live on https://t.co/Zkq26B89Y7 https://t.co/Xz4aw2I1iG Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8) Threshold Reached: 14:42 UTC Follow live on https://t.co/Zkq26B89Y7 https://t.co/Xz4aw2I1iG"
X Link 2024-08-12T19:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🥶 A breeding ground of streaking cold convective cumulus as the polar air is launched beyond the sea ice by a cyclonic gyre over the warmer Southern ocean. Ice overlay images showing the ice sheets at the start of the frigid southerly fetch bound for NZ"
X Link 2024-08-19T00:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A polar goliath is appearing on multiple global models just over a week from now to the south of Tasmania. As it pushes equatorward it will encounter the subtropical ridge & spawn an epic belt of wind in the mid latitudes. The roaring 40's & furious 50's is about to ramp up"
X Link 2024-08-21T18:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Notable M6.9 earthquake on the western edge of the Tonga Trench. Depth & size means unlikely to have generated a noticeable tsunami. Region: Tonga Islands Mag: [---] UTC: 2024-08-25 23:29:06 Lat: [------] Lon: [-------] Dep: 126km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/gPGCGpt6s8 Region: Tonga Islands Mag: [---] UTC: 2024-08-25 23:29:06 Lat: [------] Lon: [-------] Dep: 126km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/gPGCGpt6s8"
X Link 2024-08-25T23:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lightning active thunderstorm clusters just keeping rolling in on an unstable NW flow today over the Auckland area. A cloud to cloud bolt caught on the livestream webcam. Our climate station in Devonport just recorded a peak rainfall rate of 245mm/hr under this passing cell"
X Link 2024-08-31T00:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Euro model projecting a polar streamer over NZ early next week dropping snow in unusual places. 2cm of ❄on Northland & ❄ flurries for Sth Auckland / Waikato. Still a long way out & downgrades are likely but always interesting to watch the polar vortex spook the best weather models"
X Link 2024-09-09T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Overnight the largest solar flare since the infamous May [----] Great solar storm event. It was not aimed directly at earth but a large CME was generated meaning some geomagnetic storm impacts mid week are likely. Sunspot region [----] will directly face earth in the comings days. Major X4.54 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/DMgB8SO6KB Major X4.54 flare from sunspot region [----] Follow live on https://t.co/3Xxrvc3cpA https://t.co/DMgB8SO6KB"
X Link 2024-09-14T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"An unstable atmosphere in the government divisions for climate & weather forecasting. For innovation sake lets hope there is more open free public data after this merger like what exists with the BoM & NOAA"
X Link 2024-09-26T03:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Major hurricane #Helene now has frequent inner eyewall lightning a sign that this tropical specimen is maturing as it approaches landfall on Florida within [--] hrs. @ 10:00pm UT 26th Sept Pressure = [-----] hPa S-winds = [---] kts Moving = NNE [--] kts A high end Cat [--] & strengthening"
X Link 2024-09-26T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Major hurricane #Helene continues to strengthen with barometric pressure now down to [-----] hPa on the latest air recon observation. Landfall within the next hour"
X Link 2024-09-27T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Satellite imagery shows the weather was clear & stable last night around Samoa. Unfortunately even marine vessels with the best technology can fall victim to shallow reefs. Just watch the HMNZS Manawanui burn and sink. Sad day for NZ and locals https://t.co/XBMNfC3XJ1 Just watch the HMNZS Manawanui burn and sink. Sad day for NZ and locals https://t.co/XBMNfC3XJ1"
X Link 2024-10-05T22:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Microwave imagery showing #HurricaneMilton exploding from a disorganised tropical low into a top shelf cat [--] tropical cyclonic gyre within [--] hrs. Barometric pressure now down to [---] hPa sustained winds [---] knots near the Mexico coast with the infamous pinhole eye. The next [--] hrs will see more of a ENE track along the ridge offshore from the Mexico & Cuba coasts. After this track it will steer NE and likely go through an eyewall replacement cycle before making a landfall on Florida early Thurs local time. Wind shear is likely to start shredding its structure on approach to the coast and"
X Link 2024-10-07T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#HurricaneMilton being affected by dry air & wind shear pressure now @ [---] hPa winds [---] kts low end cat [--] & wobbling to the Florida coast. Tampa Bay area will be ground zero within [--] hrs @ 10pm local. #Milton's Vortex shedding is triggering tornadoes along Florida peninsula"
X Link 2024-10-09T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Space weather Alert🟥 Yesterday's X class solar flare aimed at earth produced an enormous full halo CME at our planet & Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS as it was passing. NOAA has forecast a severe G4 possible G5 level solar storm arriving at earth's magnetosphere early Fri AM NZT"
X Link 2024-10-09T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The aurora borealis (northern lights) now being seen in the Northern hemisphere tropics at [-------] N [--------] W. Geomagnetic storm levels continue to be elevated at G4 as night approaches for NZ. Rojiza aurora boreal desde Zacatecas Mxico. 😍 @TamithaSkov @SkyAlertMx @Vincent_Ledvina @petertgallagher @spacewxwatch 📸: Da Ko #Northernlights #AuroraBoreal #AuroraAustral #Auroras https://t.co/bjE3kMQ3OJ Rojiza aurora boreal desde Zacatecas Mxico. 😍 @TamithaSkov @SkyAlertMx @Vincent_Ledvina @petertgallagher @spacewxwatch 📸: Da Ko #Northernlights #AuroraBoreal #AuroraAustral #Auroras"
X Link 2024-10-11T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Less than [--] hrs ago this system was given a 10% chance of becoming a tropical storm by the U.S National Hurricane Center. Now it is #HurricaneOscar a very compact cyclonic gyre barometric pressure down to [---] hPa. Eastern Cuba suddenly has a hurricane problem on their hands. Tropical disturbance 94L is currently a weak circulation in the mid Nth Atlantic. The super ensemble projects it to move west along the ridge over the next [--] days & potentially into a lower wind shear environment near the Lesser Antilles by Fri. keeping a close 👁on this one. https://t.co/RQPhFAZOF6 Tropical disturbance"
X Link 2024-10-20T00:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After a prolonged period of settled weather a Tasman low is developing & will bring periods of rain with gusty northerlies across the upper North on Saturday. Sunday will follow with showery westerlies that continue into Monday & next week as low pressure & westerlies dominate"
X Link 2024-10-24T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"👀The South Pacific Convergence Zone is likely to become quite active in the 1st half of December with model ensembles continuing to project a strong MJO pulse into the region. Clusters of deep convective thunderstorms from the Solomon Islands to Tonga could organise and trigger the seasons first tropical 🌀 during this period with sea surface temps now between 30c to 26c in this corridor"
X Link 2024-11-08T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Latest rainfall projection for the upper North Island from the Oz model has the Tasman low on Friday tracking over Auckland Friday PM. If it verifies an associated intense convergence zone near its centre ahead of a frontal boundary is modelled to trigger falls between [--] to 100mm. Other models from & are similar but less intense on the 18z run. Keep an eye on the radar during Friday if outdoors"
X Link 2024-11-14T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@weatherpaulg @WeatherWatchNZ @therealgregjack Great article very good insight. An important step missing and hopefully still to come is full open data to the public like the GeoNet model under the 'CC3 licence' to facilitate research and risk assessment. This will bring true innovation to the industry like the U.S & Oz"
X Link 2024-11-16T00:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low #97P is the first to get an invest name of the 2024-25 South Pacific cyclone season. Its circulation is located 600km north of Fiji and is expected to steer westward this weekend towards New Caledonia. Hostile upper level westerly wind shear means further development into a 🌀remains low. Longer term there is a chance its remnants could connect with a mid latitude trough and travel near the NZ region in early December but uncertainty remains high this far out"
X Link 2024-11-21T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A notable M5.7 earthquake has occurred at 11:03am on the Hikurangi subduction zone off the east coast of the North Island. It's most likely a late aftershock from the large magnitude [---] quake on 5th March [----]. The seismic P wave took [--] seconds to arrive at our seismometer on Auckland's North Shore"
X Link 2024-11-27T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WeatherWatchNZ yes its quite interesting. Some of the latest climate driver indicators are lining up with AI's projections but traditional models keep that strong ridge over the Tasman. for now"
X Link 2024-12-12T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Initial small tsunami waves (25cm) now arriving at Port Vila. Notable quake preliminary info: M [---] - [--] km W of Port-Vila Vanuatu https://t.co/xksmFzYLKP Notable quake preliminary info: M [---] - [--] km W of Port-Vila Vanuatu https://t.co/xksmFzYLKP"
X Link 2024-12-17T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The latest euro ensemble projects an active South Pacific Convergence Zone with increased chances of tropical low development during the Xmas to New Year period. The South Pacific Basin will need to be monitored closely as deep convective thunderstorm clusters become organised"
X Link 2024-12-17T20:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A tropical low over Far North Queensland has been allocated an Invest name of 96P by JTWC (06U BoM). The Euro ensemble suggests if may reach tropical storm strength as it approaches New Caledonia early next week. It could also add atmospheric fuel to a Xmas low around NZ"
X Link 2024-12-19T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"JTWC has issue a tropical cyclone formation alert for invest 96P over the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast. It will have more favourable conditions in the next [--] hours to potentially reach tropical storm strength. Lightning active convective hot towers currently in its eastern quadrant. Pressure [---] hPa Winds [--] knots"
X Link 2024-12-21T07:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SavvyVanuatu Increased thunderstorm activity on Xmas day across the Vanuatu archipelago but no cyclone to worry about"
X Link 2024-12-21T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Circling back [--] weeks ago AI and traditional weather models were quite different in their Xmas day forecast. It turns out that AI has made mince meat of the traditional models by having low pressure in the region and a weak ridge over Oz. AI using historical data & precedence as it base is slowly overcoming the chaos theory that traditional models can't cope with beyond [--] days. AI will also never be perfect but it is changing the forecasting game. A first look at the possible Christmas day synoptic weather map with rainfall for the region. Accuracy this far out is very low so one thing for"
X Link 2024-12-24T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low #91P is [---] km NW of Fiji within the South Pacific Convergence Zone and has rapidly developed in favourable wind shear in the last [--] hours. Sustained winds [--] knots pressure [----] hPa tracking SE. JTWC now have a Tropical cyclone formation alert in place"
X Link 2024-12-28T02:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical cyclone 06P has been named by JTWC 120km NW of Nadi Fiji. Max winds: [--] knots Pressure: [---] hPa Tracking ESE at [--] knots"
X Link 2024-12-29T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Bird_Explorers JTWC has now named it 06P. Fiji Met has a different threshold for naming which they believe has not been reached yet"
X Link 2024-12-29T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@WeatherWatchNZ It certainly was an interesting one yesterday. Last night's Nadi radar signature loop had a fully enclosed inner core suggesting it was easily a cat [--] FMS scale system that they decided not to officially name. JTWC were onto it though upgrading to [--] knots offshore"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The latest Euro ensemble is projecting an active South Pacific Convergence Zone in the 2nd week of January. The risk of tropical cyclone development will be increasing in the corridor from the Solomons to Tonga. Sea Surface temps are currently between 28c to 30c in this area"
X Link 2025-01-01T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Coolest start to the year since [----] for the upper North Island. A continued sequence of fronts from low pressure systems that commenced from around Christmas day is the reason for a much cooler showery and windier start to [----]. A large high is likely to develop over NZ by next weekend (Jan 11th) bringing more settled and warmer conditions mid-month. The tropics will become active around Fiji Tonga Samoa and Cook Islands region during this period but high pressure will protect NZ from any storm remnants trying to head south for now"
X Link 2025-01-03T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"An interesting shallow earthquake swarm of 30+ quakes has developed around 110km east of the Coromandel Peninsula 130km SE of Great Barrier Island in the past few days. Seismicity today increased with [--] quakes so far. The epicenters are in same area as the intense 1984-85 earthquake sequence that had a main shock of M6.7 on New Years Eve [----]. Thus far there has been [--] M3.0+ events detected by GeoNet with the largest being a M4.2 today at 10am. No events have yet to be felt on land"
X Link 2025-01-06T05:53Z [----] followers, 10K engagements
"The South Pacific Convergence Zone has come to life with [--] tropical lows now rotating within it. #96P 400km east of Tonga is close to tropical storm strength and is heading SE. It will transition into the mid-latitudes away from Islands by this weekend and consolidate with another low to become a powerful extratropical cyclone to the east of NZ's Chatham Islands. More strong southerlies for the North Island. #98P is a weak circulation 200km east of Vanuatu and heading east along the subtropical ridge. It will find more favourable wind shear when it approaches Fiji within the next [--] hours."
X Link 2025-01-07T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical cyclone Pita formed overnight is now impacting Niue as as category [--] system on daybreak. It is steering along the subtropical ridge in a marginable environment and will likely impact Rarotonga late Monday as a possible category [--]. No future impact for NZ"
X Link 2025-01-10T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The dry spell will continue for the upper North Island as a high pressure ridge will steer #CyclonePita eastwards over the Cook Islands and beyond. A low pressure trough will move off Oz's east coast & draw down tropical moisture later next week. One to keep an 👁on for NZ"
X Link 2025-01-11T06:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@snow_leopard1 Could be right but weather models are always volatile in summer until the low actually forms. Some big differences between models still"
X Link 2025-01-13T06:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It's now [--] years on since the Hunga TongaHunga Haapai 'VEI 6' submarine explosion that reached 57km into the mesosphere sending pressure waves and tsunamis around the globe. Here are some of the discoveries over the last [--] months of pre and post eruption. [--] minutes before the major eruption precursor 'Rayleigh waves' were detected by seismometers in Fiji and Futuna. The seismic waves were the equivalent of a M4.9 earthquake and was a warning from the volcano on what would come next. An important discovery for future early warning systems. The eruption caused the largest 'dirty thunderstorm'"
X Link 2025-01-14T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tonight a subtropical low 250km SE of Norfolk Island is deepening and moving southward towards the upper North Island. A slow moving rainband associated with a warm front will affect Northland on Friday PM / early Saturday. High pressure is likely going to weaken and stall the low as it approaches Northland so Auckland the Gulf Islands and the Coromandel Peninsula will only experience a few showers over the weekend. The low will likely find a new lease of life on Monday and deliver a vigorous easterly with heavy rain on late Monday into Tuesday for the entire upper North Island. It's as"
X Link 2025-01-16T06:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A historic day across the U.S Gulf states as a cold wave sweeps south with ocean-effect snow putting loads of flakes in places it hasn't been for over a century. Hurricane and tornado warning yes but a blizzard warning is a first. Bourbon street New Orleans is blanketed. NWS Lake Charles has issued it's first ever Blizzard Warning for Jefferson and Orange counties as well as Cameron Calcasieu Jeff Davis Acadia Vermilion and Lafayette parishes until noon today. https://t.co/JlyJpIxRcw NWS Lake Charles has issued it's first ever Blizzard Warning for Jefferson and Orange counties as well as"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"👀Multiple tropical lows developing in a corridor between the OZ top end & Tonga is becoming likely later this week as a MJO pulse moves near the region. Most global models are currently projecting at least one of the lows becomes a tropical 🌀over the Coral Sea by next weekend"
X Link 2025-01-26T06:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tropical cyclone 15P was named this morning by JTWC near Lifou New Caledonia. [--] kts [---] hPa. Lightning near its centre with good outflow. It will continue SE along the subtropical ridge before encountering hostile wind shear. Model mean currently projects no impact on NZ"
X Link 2025-02-02T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low 95P has now being named tropical cyclone 16P by JTWC and is generating a pluming hot tower within its NE quadrant next to New Caledonia. Outflow has increased in the last [--] hours. Pressure [----] hPa max sustained winds [--] knots travelling ESE at [--] knots"
X Link 2025-02-11T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mewindy It seems like the low level circulation is decoupling from the mid level now as it weakens so models are pretty close with the MSLP at 2:30pm NZT. for now"
X Link 2025-03-01T01:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The latest run (00z) from the Euro has #CycloneAlfred launching it's 'dirty side' of spiral rainbands & wind gusts up to 180km/h at the Gold Coast & Brisbane's southern suburbs late Thurs night followed by landfall. A historic weather event for SE Qld NE NSW if that verifies"
X Link 2025-03-03T06:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#CycloneAlfred has been positioned in the same grid cell (27S28S 155E156E) for the past [--] hours according to satellite imagery. This is due to weakening steering currents between the subtropical ridge and an equatorial ridge. Alfred is slowing down"
X Link 2025-03-06T03:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The largest weather system on earth & NZ's most influential climate driver the stratospheric polar vortex began it's [----] journey on 15th Feb when easterlies turned to westerlies at [--] hPa above Antarctica. Seasonal changes are underway with the return of the Polar Jet stream"
X Link 2025-03-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A trough is drifting westward off the Bay of Plenty producing 50mm in Pauanui so far today. The Coromandel Ranges are protecting areas to the west but some showers may get through this evening. Great Barrier Is & eastern parts of Northland will get some much needed rain drops"
X Link 2025-03-29T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"👀 Latest GFS run is producing a formidable low-level jet stream over the upper North Island on Thurs AM as a Tasman extratropical cyclone deepens. It has winds of [--] to [--] knots at [---] hPa (1.5km above surface). Some of these winds will mix down to the surface 'if' it verifies"
X Link 2025-04-11T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tropical low 98P is now being tracked by JTWC. Latest water vapour satellite image shows deep convection starting to circulate over the Vanuatu archipelago. The low will consolidate on Monday then be steered south by a trough on Tues towards Norfolk Island. NZ impacts from Wed"
X Link 2025-04-13T07:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S boutique hurricane models becoming aggressive with the intensification of tropical low 98P. Models HWRF & HAFS-A taking low wind shear & sea surface temps of 27c east of New Caledonia into account projecting a robust tropical cyclone exiting the tropics on Wednesday AM"
X Link 2025-04-14T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sunrise on tropical cyclone 30P named by JTWC last night is over the top of the Vanuatu archipelago. Pressure [---] hPa winds [--] kts moving S at [--] kts. Large plumes of deep convection continued overnight. Conditions today remain favourable for further development. Fiji Met Service have yet to name the storm. Longer term subtropical transition will take place on Wednesday morning as it moves southward towards NZ. Full extratropical transition is likely to occur to the NW of Northland on Thursday. We are tracking the system on its journey south at https://www.haurakigulfweather.com/cyclone2"
X Link 2025-04-14T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fiji Met service now have a TC forecast track map. Expecting to officially name TD11F later today"
X Link 2025-04-14T22:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@nicholasphilp The TC will move over 25c water around 400km SE of New Caledonia it will then transition to sub-tropical system with its wind field expanding. Then it will turn into an extratropical system as it nears NZ on Thursday"
X Link 2025-04-14T23:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Tonight Fiji Met service officially named tropical #CycloneTam 400km east of New Caledonia. Pressure [---] hPa sustained winds [--] kts. Moving in a SSE direction and will transition into a subtropical system during Wednesday as it heads southward towards New Zealand waters"
X Link 2025-04-15T07:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tropical low 94P is now being monitored by JTWC near the Solomon Islands over the northern extremity of the Coral Sea. Barometric pressure [----] hPa winds [--] knots deep convection in the NW quadrant. Global ensembles have the low deepening over the next [--] hours as it tracks SE"
X Link 2025-05-10T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Space Weather Aurora Alert A major geomagnetic solar storm is forecast to hit earths magnetosphere later tonight and continue into Monday. Its coming from strong M class solar flare which produced a full halo coronal mass ejection sending a plasma cloud directly at our planet. NOAA has forecast a possible severe G4 arriving from midnight NZT and could pulsate for up to [--] hours. If the Plasma cloud arrives as forecast this is likely to mean the Aurora Australis could be seen across the upper North Island providing there are breaks in the clouds. If it reaches a G5 level there could be"
X Link 2025-06-01T05:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The last [--] hrs total precipitable water loop showing the Oz east coast low dragging down an epic tropical moisture plume over the Tasman Sea. A vigorous NE to N wind convergence zone arrives over the upper North Island tomorrow ahead of a front. Lock in a wild day of weather"
X Link 2025-07-02T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"👀A Mount Ruapehu earthquake swarm commenced late last night with GeoNet sensors recording over [--] microquakes so far [--] to [--] km beneath the eastern slopes of the volcano. The crater lake temp has been undergoing a cooling phase in the last [--] months and is currently at 11c"
X Link 2025-07-07T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"👀A sudden stratospheric warming disturbance is starting to show up on the GFS model and several Euro ensemble model members over the Antarctica continent in the coming weeks. These events can change the Polar Jet steam to a more meridional flow triggering major cold snaps in the mid-latitude countries of NZ Australia Chile Argentina & South Africa. One to watch for August"
X Link 2025-07-09T18:56Z [----] followers, 86.6K engagements
"A new Tasman low means more rain tonight and most of Friday as multiple fronts help drag down subtropical moisture over the upper North Island. Expect a vigorous north-easterly with 50mm to 80mm most likely being at its heaviest on Friday evening before a cold front moves through"
X Link 2025-07-10T07:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Gulf earthquake swarm reawaken this morning by a magnitude [---]. The earthquake occurred in the northern area of the Hauraki gulf associated with the ongoing earthquake swarm off Whangarei. It was reported felt in Warkworth and Great Barrier Island. It is the equal 8th largest quake in the sequence with the largest being a M4.1 in February [----]. That now brings the total number of quakes in the sequence to [---] over the last [--] & half years. Before the swarm began there was no known fault line in that location 35km east of Whangarei Heads. The nearest known fault is the Whangarei Harbour fault"
X Link 2025-07-15T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A Tasman low's centre has moved over lower Northland this evening & has a spiral rainband behind it coming off the Tasman. Keep an eye on the radar tonight as the low drags this rainband across parts of the upper North Island. Expect heavy rain at times if the western side of the low passes over your area"
X Link 2025-07-17T06:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tsunami waves from the M8.8 Russia coastline #earthquake continue to travel across the Pacific this morning with waves around [---] metres in height affecting French Polynesia just after midnight NZT. Small tsunami waves around 15cm in height have been arriving onto Great Barrier Island in the last few hours with tsunami ripples entering Auckland's Waitemata harbour from around 4:30am. Civil defence national advisory for tsunami activity associated with strong and unpredictable surges remains in place for all NZ water as of 6:30am [--] July"
X Link 2025-07-30T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"An unusually large M5.6 earthquake about 100km inland from the Sunshine Coast SE Queensland. Region: Kilkivan QLD Mag: [---] UTC: 2025-08-15 23:49:25 Lat: [------] Lon: [------] Dep: 2km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/cC5u76URAN Region: Kilkivan QLD Mag: [---] UTC: 2025-08-15 23:49:25 Lat: [------] Lon: [------] Dep: 2km For more info and updates or if you felt this earthquake go to https://t.co/cC5u76URAN"
X Link 2025-08-16T01:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Snow is being modelled by the Euro & UK on Northland's Waima range on Tuesday evening. This upper trough is about to deliver peak winter for the upper North Island"
X Link 2025-08-17T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A sequence of events for climate drivers affecting NZ and Australia are potentially about to align if models verify. An incoming back-to-back La Nina a negative Indian Ocean dipole a strong MJO pulse and a sudden stratospheric warming event could all line up during September. What comes next could set up wildly volatile Spring weather patterns for the mid latitudes of NZ & Australia"
X Link 2025-08-25T00:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There was a very rare deep earthquake under the Coromandel township this morning. The magnitude [---] quake at a depth of 303km was registered at 6:26am and verified this afternoon by GeoNet. Quakes at this depth within the asthenosphere of the upper mantle are common in the Taupo Volcanic Zone to the south-east but not so within the extinct Coromandel Volcanic zone"
X Link 2025-08-25T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"An influx of heat from the troposphere is starting to propagate upward and is about to trigger a significant sudden stratospheric warming above the Antarctic continent this week. The world largest weather system the stratospheric polar vortex will be weakened & displaced north by Saturday. In [----] a similar stratospheric event caused NZ's coldest and windiest October for nearly a decade. No [--] events are the same though as other climate driver factors like an incoming La Nina pattern are different this time round. One to 👀closely"
X Link 2025-08-31T23:49Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements
"An interesting M1.6 micro-earthquake under Northland at 1:22am this morning. Its epicenter was on a dormant fault line that runs to the west of Whangaroa harbour and was too small to be felt. It is the first earthquake measured within a [--] km radius for the local area since the 1963-1964 sequence that involved several moderate earthquakes including three around M 4.5"
X Link 2025-09-02T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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