#  @GrtMarc MarcGRT MarcGRT posts on X about $val, $ne, debt, $rig the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1374435450526437382/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +555% - [--] Month [-----] +16% - [--] Months [------] -84% - [--] Year [-------] +84% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1374435450526437382/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -58% - [--] Months [--] +37% - [--] Year [--] -21% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1374435450526437382/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +0.72% - [--] Month [---] +1.50% - [--] Months [---] +13% - [--] Year [---] +80% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1374435450526437382/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [currencies](/list/currencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [la liga](/list/la-liga) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [$val](/topic/$val), [$ne](/topic/$ne) #592, [debt](/topic/debt), [$rig](/topic/$rig), [$sdrl](/topic/$sdrl) #8, [$do](/topic/$do), [$pbr](/topic/$pbr), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [market cap](/topic/market-cap), [acquisition](/topic/acquisition) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@oilgastourist](/creator/undefined) [@mugsluck](/creator/undefined) [@ultradeep3](/creator/undefined) [@nickradical4](/creator/undefined) [@perpetualvalue](/creator/undefined) [@natgasturk](/creator/undefined) [@calvinfroedge](/creator/undefined) [@james56487175](/creator/undefined) [@philhk](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@christankerfund](/creator/undefined) [@icbarrett](/creator/undefined) [@panicnsell](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@nuggetcapital](/creator/undefined) [@coeus12345](/creator/undefined) [@chrismozach](/creator/undefined) [@offshoremayor](/creator/undefined) [@henrik115](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [PolkaBridge (PBR)](/topic/$pbr) [Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)](/topic/$borr) [Nexa (NEXA)](/topic/$nexa) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)](/topic/$gold) [Stader (SD)](/topic/$sd) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [Newmont Corporation (NEM)](/topic/$nem) [Veno Finance (VNO)](/topic/$vno) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@Buy100ozSilver @medic_uk Great picks hope you are right. I own them all as well as some oil services such as $DO $TDW $HLX and $DDRIL (last one a bit speculative)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1616051965200588801) 2023-01-19T12:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Will start sharing a bit more about my portfolio. Largest postions currently: [--]. $PBR [--]. $AOI [--]. $DDRIL.OL / $SDSD.OL [--]. $FEC.TO [--]. $E [--]. $PRS.OL [--]. $DO [--]. $NMM [--]. $JSW.WA [--]. $EMX [--]. $GMX.TO [--]. $CKHUY [--]. $ECOR.L [--]. $TGA.L [--]. $THS.L [--]. $JSE.L [--]. $MAHA.SE [--]. $DIS.MI" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1701169016990019990) 2023-09-11T09:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Ultradeep3 Wow thats crazy merger makes total sense but I can imagine potential issues with competition authorities see Noble & Maersk who needed a spin off and Prosafe with Floatel which collapsed" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1703726581930135917) 2023-09-18T11:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@christankerfund Lol and no room for questions in the call. Still makes sense for him to convert and do the buybacks. Bought a few more at $1.55" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1717198781928611995) 2023-10-25T15:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater Thank you very helpful Maybe to share one more observation during [----] we financed some PSV reactivations (2-3 years laid up). Lots of issues afterwards from electrical wiring to literally holes in the hull" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1717956645181862037) 2023-10-27T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater Which is one reason why I like $DDRIL and $DO as they both have a good trackrecord in reactivating their semisubs (Great white/ Blackford) and why I take a conservative stance regarding (cold stacked) drillship reactivation and what problems might come afterwards" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1717957115203957150) 2023-10-27T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SheDrills @kulppainting Still really weird $fec.to up like 7% and $cgxef down 3%" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1717960222487011542) 2023-10-27T17:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AOI Africa Oil has two main assets. Prime just saw its licensed extended and is operated by Total/Chevron. The Venus field in Namibia may be one of the largest discoveries and worth $AOI market cap by itself. The share price crash following Nara duster provides a great entry" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1719342651583938630) 2023-10-31T13:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$FEC.to Effectively [--] businesses. 1) Great exploration opportunity in Guyana with capex completed 2) Great Colombian upstream business with 40k bopd however not well reflected in fin metrics due to Guyana capex and 3) often forgotten midstream business for stable cash flows" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1719342966693663043) 2023-10-31T13:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$ENQ.L / #ENQ Main benefit of Enquest is its very cheap price large tax loss assets mitigating part of the EPL tax pain (scandalous act by the UK government also risking their own energy security long term) and ability to rapidly pay down debt. Dividend maybe in 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1719343267089682927) 2023-10-31T13:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BowTiedMara Lol just arrived in Buenos Aires today soo many sad looking hipsters in Palermo. Hopefully some good changes can be implemented to control inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1726426423978565759) 2023-11-20T02:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Josh_Young_1 To provide a Dutch perspective. Only maybe a few months ago most parties would call voters of Wilders party either racist or dumb trash. What changed [--] October and in particular the follow up "demonstrations" to support Palestina/Hamas in Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1727455427925815444) 2023-11-22T22:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "A few observations on $ddril.ol Q3 results. Let's start with the bad ones that led to its share price decrease. 1) They are not getting paid on the Blackford in Nigeria . Definitely troublesome especially as the rig is now idle but too early to judge on the final outcome" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1730367184877072797) 2023-11-30T23:24Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "2) They seem to have given up on the Bideford and Keppel newbuilds. (which removes some upside in the most optimistic forecasts) Now the good" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1730367342838751736) 2023-11-30T23:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "3) Closing of the Transocean transaction is imminent. Even better looks like it is a lockbox transaction since June. Making the total transaction cost (ex fees) $49.1m being $6.1m prepaid + estimated $41m at closing vs the announced price of 61.5m" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1730367445959901328) 2023-11-30T23:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "5) Lastly the financing $65m for $ddril against the PBL is very impressive as it is effectively 132% of the net purchase price to Transocean With the hire of the ex Awilco CEO and more cash coming in next up I expect more M&A (old semisubs from Diamond)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1730368710680994112) 2023-11-30T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@olaharaldmoen1 I dont understand. Why would they need another ATM From the Q3 balance sheet they have plenty of cash and a lot of the liabilities can be offset against the receivables in nigeria. Also at closing of the transocean transaction. They will get $65m new liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1732382495956500857) 2023-12-06T12:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@oilgastourist Is this serious Not even close to the real value in BW Energy. Might buy some shares now and wait for the offer to improve. Do you expect them to get enough shares to actually close this" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1734978971966517553) 2023-12-13T16:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@christankerfund Any insights on the convertibles Sold already 1/3 of my position for some nice IRR" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1736794360216183260) 2023-12-18T17:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@James56487175 Really loved this one. Spot on analysis by you on this "nasty" special situation :) You were the first to highlight $Impp to me. Bought quite a bit but already sold over half of my position for some amazing IRR. Many thanks Best wishes for the Christmas days" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1738213463212638637) 2023-12-22T15:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@respeculator They will all make their comeback eventually. Now is a great time to buy. I like in particular the royalty companies with large lithium & cobalt exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1744448730802090352) 2024-01-08T19:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MarhelmData The tight North Sea market is also evidenced by the Dolphin Borgland (one of the oldest semi-subs still around) being reactivated for work in the UK with pretty decent EBITDA margins. Also good news for $DO which has some older moored semi subs" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1744801540273996047) 2024-01-09T19:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@NICKRADICAL4 @Franfra51045228 @david_katunaric One guess it is listed in HK. It's debt is all non-recourse and its NY property is unencumbered Trading at 80% - 90% discount to book value and likely more at fair value" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1749150741313331493) 2024-01-21T19:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@NICKRADICAL4 @Franfra51045228 @david_katunaric Ah ok I was thinking Great Eagle $0041.HK Due to consolidation of its 50%+ shareholding in the Champion REIT it looks like they have quite some debt. Take that out (give it wrongfully zero value) and you get at a large discount among others the 5* Langham hotels in NY & London" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1749152846988059001) 2024-01-21T19:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@trigonmetals Great news. Exciting that the underground mining can soon begin" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1749880356914823332) 2024-01-23T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MikeSchuler @ed_fin Feels like this was the final straw. UK & US will fire back" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1750958559037202844) 2024-01-26T19:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@addicted2Musk @MikeSchuler @ed_fin What they did was more an action to scare the houthi's than a serious military action. If they cant stop the houthi's with relatively limited force maybe next up some boots on the ground" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1750960348025233500) 2024-01-26T19:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TommyDeepwater Thanks very interesting as they with Floatel are the two leading players in this market. Regarding demand I believe they are more a later stage play when the fields are actually being developed and thereafter maintained" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1751533987686723651) 2024-01-28T09:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater What I like most is that it trades at a fraction of replacement costs there won't be newbuilds and in particular namibia I can see those floatels being required due to harsh environment which would tilt the tight supply/demand balance. still speculative due to its debt position" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1751534948169683402) 2024-01-28T09:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Soo as a consequence Europe can't access US gas. Germany closed nuclear plants. Good thing there is good old coal for the rescue. Great move to improve climate change🤦♂ Never thought we would see the day. The White House is amplifying our Twitter account. Words fail. Words fail. Words utterly fail. https://t.co/G6hFNLofGZ Never thought we would see the day. The White House is amplifying our Twitter account. Words fail. Words fail. Words utterly fail. https://t.co/G6hFNLofGZ" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1751751232081871183) 2024-01-28T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MugsLuck @NICKRADICAL4 Haha when no one cares its best moment to increase your position. Bought some more $VAL & $SDRL :)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1753502960498192516) 2024-02-02T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Desk research is great but also a lot of fun to actually see the assets you are invested in. $VAL $NE" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1754099801547845816) 2024-02-04T11:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The 100m reactivation of the $VAL DS-7" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1754100375936745672) 2024-02-04T11:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "A bit harder to see but the Pacific Scirocco and Meltem from $NE. In lay up since [----] & 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1754101652166938866) 2024-02-04T11:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MugsLuck @ICBarrett @NICKRADICAL4 @_EnergyRealist Just posted a few pics. Was good fun to see. Have to say the old Pacific ones from Noble didn't look that great after almost [--] - [--] year in lay up" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1754104589303890426) 2024-02-04T11:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1754109692182163493) 2024-02-04T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@DWDrillingBits @Ultradeep3 Sounds reasonable they'd do that. Quite a fuck up indeed with the greatwhite at least no one injured. Regardless still like $do imo key takeover candidate" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1755546553467474215) 2024-02-08T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@James56487175 Nice presentation they have. If you are risk-averse you should NOT buy our shares😂 Personally still like $apm.v a bit better and curious to see how $cert.v will develop but insane amount of bargains with the precious metals. Even large caps like $nem are very cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1756072445302260108) 2024-02-09T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@OlaRugsveen @agnostoxxx Very interesting opportunity indeed. While being a debt pension obligations are imo the nicest debt you can have. No covenants (divi can continue) and very long maturity" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1758411600342446259) 2024-02-16T08:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NICKRADICAL4 @_triangulate_ Any thoughts on the argument that the fleet of $DO is too diverse with its moored semisubs and therefore less attractive for M&A" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1762174974855373286) 2024-02-26T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NICKRADICAL4 @_triangulate_ In my view btw it would be the last great acquisition that $VAL and $SDRL can do. Especially if they can fund (most) of it with new debt against their fleet. On an EV basis paying $250m or $300m for a 7th gen equiv floater will look like a mastermove in [--] years time" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1762175440192471250) 2024-02-26T17:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Not the best day for my portfolio thanks to a.o. $PBR & $DO. But did Prates really say that much new today Acquisitions in Oil and Petrochemicals are not necesarily bad. And frankly speaking in Brazil solar on land kinda could work. At least a lot better than in Germany" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1762921106187399484) 2024-02-28T19:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@unusual_whales Which makes it all the more important to look for REIT's with mostly non-recourse debt such as $VNO. Will be interesting when banks/bond holders receive the keys of assets en masse in unpopular places such as San Fransisco. Who can exit first while there is still liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1763181864955629601) 2024-02-29T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Geologo_Trader Its amazing just spend [--] weeks there. Great meat (especially lamb). While hiking in el Chalten I could drink the water straight from the mountain river. Bariloche might even be my favourite amazing nature great hikes and cycling paths. Also loved the Llao Llao hotel $CRESY" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1764384852403446216) 2024-03-03T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Great new contract for $DO. Contract suggest dayrate of c. $480k p/day. Best thing direct continuation of current contract so no white space. Diamond Offshore clinches new $350m drillship deal with BP https://t.co/uQcH0lue4k https://t.co/GZYpsFbtWr Diamond Offshore clinches new $350m drillship deal with BP https://t.co/uQcH0lue4k https://t.co/GZYpsFbtWr" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1764565290384232596) 2024-03-04T08:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Previous contract for the Ocean Blackhornet with BP was at a day rate of $397k/ day. Nice step up for $DO" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1764570975780139326) 2024-03-04T08:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@phil_hk @ReturnsJourney @brandsttt4 @dodgingalpha @GlobalStockPick Thanks Phil For those looking at P/B or NAV discount. It likely larger than the 80% mentioned in the presentation as hotels are valued at cost minus depreciation. I would expect that all their owned Langhams are worth a bit more today" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1764735113688916157) 2024-03-04T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "This is great news. While I remain skeptical on how much they get back and when they get paid. It is very positive that the Blackford now can leave in a timely and orderly manner to India for its new contract 🤞 $DDRIL.ol https://t.co/dqBsJa0OJB 🤞 $DDRIL.ol https://t.co/dqBsJa0OJB" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1772675911998951559) 2024-03-26T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Panic_n_Sell But why would it I dont see the incentive for the CEO to improve the shareprice. Feels like he (or his mom😂) enjoys accumalating at the lower levels and prefers building out a shipping empire over a higher market cap. Still great company imo to play by writing puts" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1775407686797922507) 2024-04-03T06:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@hkuppy @BobRobotti Congrats I bought quite a bit at $5/$6 thought it was the best trade ever when I sold all around $20. Great management team happy to see them doing so well (visited them once in hindsight a lesson if mngt has a very modest office probably good/prudent mngt)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1775543400512598286) 2024-04-03T15:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "If even established banks like BAML are saying this. Imo implication of money printing will be increases in the broader commodities market including precious metals base metals and energy Gold to reach $3000 Gold prices are projected to jump to $3000 per ounce by [----] according to Bank of America buoyed by strong demand from central banks and the anticipation of investors returning to the market once the Federal Reserve begins to slash interest rates. Gold to reach $3000 Gold prices are projected to jump to $3000 per ounce by [----] according to Bank of America buoyed by strong demand from" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1778454766105858090) 2024-04-11T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) They got almost 60Mlb of uranium Mineral reserves Just in case you think you are late to the SBSW party have a look at the [--] year graph. It is only just beginning. Maybe now is the time for those diamond hands" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1778724594641211822) 2024-04-12T09:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DeniauThierry Dilution is rarely wonderful but having balance sheet flexibility at times like these is valuable. Imo the restructuring makes sense. Lower supply and lower costs. I'm not expecting the [----] to be a great year but [----] should be" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1778800882160705748) 2024-04-12T15:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DeniauThierry Good to position now while it is still unloved and imo whether your base entry is 4.x or 6ish doesn't matter. Stock has the levers to hit $25 in 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1778801273657266672) 2024-04-12T15:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@perinplobato @capitalemployed Thanks It is crazy how hated these Chinese RE companies are. Guess I'll spend some time digging through the financials/ debt situation. The share price almost suggest that some kind of fraud is going on. But yeah buying hated stocks is often the best way for outsized returns" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1782846643500437600) 2024-04-23T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Worth to watch. The chips used for AI by a.o $NVDA require tons of electricity and new electricity infrastructure. Combined with the continued increase of electric cars the demand for copper will skyrocket. Interesting copper related stocks a.o. are $EMX $ECOR.L $TM.V and $GOLD. The other implication is that we need more as well as energy sources. The latter also being coal such as $TGA.L $BTU and $YAL.ax . Makes me highly doubt whether with lack of investments in mining and nuclear energy we can both meet climate goals and continue to benefit from (energy hungry) technology advancements" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1782857596103233864) 2024-04-23T19:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ShakeyPremis @BabyAnteaterInc @joeriwestland @Jamesiebabie1 @omniamea Any specific places/companies in Uruguay" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1784859429906641019) 2024-04-29T08:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TheDriller11 Exactly this and the VALARIS [---] that got released by Aramco is a sister vessel (one year younger but less water/leg depth). So guess it should be able to get a nice contract as well. Would be great if $VAL goes down a bit more didnt add enough :)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1785570439357489208) 2024-05-01T07:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@MugsLuck Think the main problem is that $RIG will struggle to repay their debt + service their debt without diluting the share count whereas $VAL uses its relatively low FCF today to buy back its shares at a fraction of replacement value" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1785726982753255455) 2024-05-01T17:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@teerpnam1 @MugsLuck They are already diluting. From the Q1 call the fact that they didnt answer that is a red flag to me" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1785748038620717154) 2024-05-01T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Ultradeep3 @teerpnam1 @MugsLuck Thanks please do shoot at the below happy to hear if got something wrong. Doesnt it just make sense to own $VAL or $DO instead of $RIG I also strongly prefer a clean balance sheet in case I am wrong about the drilling bull market" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1785929239029555223) 2024-05-02T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater @NatgasTurk Or do both acquire $DO fully debt funded. Should be possible for $SDRL. And continue to buy back shares. Dont stress if you overpay. Long term the value of the [--] 7th gen $DO ships plus the semisubs (great white). Should at least be well over $2.5bn" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1792451659492147555) 2024-05-20T07:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater @NatgasTurk And if $SDRL share price declines following the acquisition. No stress as long term shareholder it allows for even cheaper buybacks :) Btw $SDRL can of course be replaced here with $VAL as well. Same rationale" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1792452057259257966) 2024-05-20T07:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@christankerfund Could end up being the best/most fun special situation of [----] (as long as Harry now plays his games only in $CISS)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1793320026847465652) 2024-05-22T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MugsLuck Lots of scrapping lately with $DO and $DDRIL 2x. Good for the market and all parties. Will get very interesting if some 6th gen drillships will be scrapped" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1797708278505382014) 2024-06-03T19:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Panic_n_Sell Any thoughts on the recent share price decline I cant get to anything other than maybe stop losses after [--] - Would be nice to see Harry's family members start buying again" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1798816122768429490) 2024-06-06T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC Great article thank you Maybe to add in [----] their previous low point they still had like $1.5bn or so in net debt vs like $0.6bn today. Also its a much larger more diversified company today" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1799014780948422948) 2024-06-07T09:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉) Why I love Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and thus I hate myself. https://t.co/yB6Iwcoio8 Why I love Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and thus I hate myself. https://t.co/yB6Iwcoio8" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1799015217155981352) 2024-06-07T09:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@calvinfroedge Copper well over $4 and gold well over $2100 plenty of cash flow for many miners. Was a nice day to add" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1799187607123070982) 2024-06-07T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As I am expecting a prolonged bull run in the gold and critical base metals space I am building out my mining positions in particular through LEAPS on $GOLD and $NEM as well as long positions in a.o. $HUM.L $SBSW $EMX $GMX.TO and $TM.V. Drilling services however are also a very interesting play to increase exposure to the mining sector without many of the mining risks. At today's prices some see very low EV/EBITDA multiples" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1800471641438236672) 2024-06-11T10:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Panic_n_Sell Agree any views on why its down today Woud be great to see some more insider buying" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1801250522466263214) 2024-06-13T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@trigonmetals Will the webinar replay be posted somewhere" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1805166652306190600) 2024-06-24T09:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "From the press release that they sent out later that evening The Blackford is on its way to India. And looking at vesselfinder or Marinetraffic looks like it's indeed headed that way Regarding one AHTS vs two I am not sure - do they really need two (Do you know by any chance know how this was for the Borgland) My fear and also from own experience in Africa is that the settlement will take ages before concluding. I understand from the press release they had to put up a bank guarantee of $20m to get the rig out of Nigeria" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1808474151541207355) 2024-07-03T12:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TRAVmoneyofmine Also bad news for $ecor.l / #ECOR. This should have been one of their main royalties especially after cash flow from their met coal royalty Kestral dries up" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1811304201198227858) 2024-07-11T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NuggetCapital @TenazEnergy Well if you add it all up and be as conservative as possible (e.g. take the entire acquisition price off the 2P NPV bought). On top of that apply the discount to NAV the market gave the company before the acquisition. You still end up at a price target of c. [--] CAD" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1815425833936232674) 2024-07-22T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I agree absolutely hated company and one of my largest positions (bought a lot more after the Blackford left Nigeria). Following the equity raise at NOK [--] they should have enough liquidity until the end of the year. At that moment the Indian cash flow starts coming in and soon thereafter the cash flow from the Borgland for Enquest. Any cash from Nigeria is a bonus. However FCF at some moment should be roughly equal to the current market cap of $DDRIL.ol" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1815427671456727102) 2024-07-22T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Working on a little write up on the latest and very transformative acquisition of Tenaz ( $TNZ.TO ). Bought a lot over the last two trading days and still see an easy double before getting even close to fair value. Lots of similarities with $VLE.TO Anthony Marino discusses the NAM acquisition: https://t.co/UPlpF2JQU4 Anthony Marino discusses the NAM acquisition: https://t.co/UPlpF2JQU4" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1815474342232527243) 2024-07-22T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My thoughts on Tenaz Energy $TNZ.to which acquired the NAM offshore fields in the Netherlands. Normally I shy away if a stock almost doubles in a few days. However here only a fraction of the upside is priced in. Key highlights: - Production increases from c.3k boepd -- c.14k boepd - 2P reserves of 53.6m boepd (11 years) with growth potential - Annual FCF higher than the market cap before the deal - Best part all without equity dilution" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1816118162313695334) 2024-07-24T14:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Now one of my largest postions. Sold among others parts of my positions in $AOI $PBR $TGA.L to increase allocation to $TNZ" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1816118952898023642) 2024-07-24T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@coeus12345 @YellowLabLife @PantheonResour1 Pretty high cut off point too for copper at $4/lbs" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1816744720124584065) 2024-07-26T07:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@oilgastourist And if you are not Norwegian with the current exchange rate vs the NOK. Very attractive to buy Norwegian stocks. Got quite a nice $NOL.ol position. Just get some nice long term (financable) contracts in Namibia at $500k and ready for a sale" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1816784661328044335) 2024-07-26T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The hedges for [----] are now actually below current pricing. (Winter is +- [--] euro higher). I believe this market is still tight with much supply (Groningen + Russia) gone - and immense supply destruction on the UK side due to the EPL. Further escalation in the Middle East plus a cold winter in Europe could propel prices back up to levels over EUR 50/Mwh or much higher" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1818948402530365477) 2024-08-01T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks Tommy Very surprised by the very negative reaction to $VAL. Feels a bit the market is forgetting the huge ramp up in cash flow in [----]. Some great contracts also in the last months. Comparing the fleet status reports from [--] July to the presentation of April [--]. Average DS rates up from 423k to 477k. Now just compare that the [----] levels. A huge up tick in FCF will come and is already locked in" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819077075413668244) 2024-08-01T18:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@JamesHMackay More $IMPP" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819397858879328547) 2024-08-02T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Did you add a few 100s of millions for the most helpful advisors. Do check out what in other restructurings was paid to them. They rank senior to you as an equity holder. Also don't forget outstanding taxes other creditors (payables) pensions salaries all senior to you" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819989098947297530) 2024-08-04T06:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ChrisMozach Also in a debt to equity swap in general the equity boys get nothing and have a horrible negotiation position. Management gets a nice package though to stay in place even if they messed up in the first place🤣" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819989984348090625) 2024-08-04T06:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ChrisMozach But they will get a new valuation and that will be much lower then the current value. Have a look at the offshore drillers. Their book values sometimes got downgraded like 5x" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819995411169308684) 2024-08-04T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ChrisMozach For me the best way to play these situations is either to buy senior (in the money) bonds. Or simply wait till the company re emerges from bankruptcy. Lots of former bondholders will be willing sellers of the equity. Great time to buy" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1819996171697377519) 2024-08-04T07:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@NuggetCapital But why not things like $PBR today as well as $SEPL.L" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1820468775155908949) 2024-08-05T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ITOLDYA6 @NuggetCapital Haha Tenaz is still my largest position. Wish it will go down tomorrow (got a bit of dry powder) But the Seplat deal is also very attractive on so many levels. Plus lots of gas which is much needed with Nigeria's population growth My top [--] today are $TNZ.to $PBR and $Sepl.l" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1820503154032554037) 2024-08-05T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PerpetualValue @oilgastourist provides all that (little calc needed). Think it is an amazing transaction. The downside is that you now have a shareholder for c.50% that is looking to sell. Upside you use your horrible (tax wise) assets to buy some really nice ones for a fair price https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/mfco4obr/240612-prospectus-publication-investor-presentation-final.pdf https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/mfco4obr/240612-prospectus-publication-investor-presentation-final.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1821457194182689164) 2024-08-08T08:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PerpetualValue @oilgastourist On the debt situation. You get some more debt but its insanely cheap. Best one is the perpetual. If they are going to be an asshole. Just dont refinance it and enjoy the cheapest funding ever" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1821457457232715956) 2024-08-08T08:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@hcapinvesting And we used all those bought back shares effectively as performance awards for our board. Total fully diluted share count isn't down. Tbh the mngt does deserve a nice (share) bonus for this transaction" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1821820597455741363) 2024-08-09T08:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Agree but I am really curious to see what will happen with the convertible. You saw some insider buying at $CISS. Would it be a plan for Harry to allow $CISS to repay the conv bond instead and try to get as much ownership direct in $CISS That would be a very bullish scenario for C3IS but for now I still see it more "logical" to try a bit more dilution and then get the shares of $CISS through the convertible. Maybe the trick is that Harry and family just buy the convertible loan from $IMPP at par and then convert in shares $CISS. 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1826617425292337316) 2024-08-22T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Frankly speaking if you want $RIG like upside. Just buy LEAPS on $NE. Pretty cheap and way more upside. Will $NE go down more also great you can pick up the shares for less but at least your principal at risk for the next [---] years is much smaller in case of a full meltdown - and if $NE goes down more $RIG is in serious trouble" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1826892032402481220) 2024-08-23T07:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@offshoremayor Btw always appreciate your views with real life insides Any views on whether the laid up vessels of $RIG will ever come back I completely discard them. Saw some PSV's once after being in lay up for [--] years completely messed up" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1826892405590679761) 2024-08-23T08:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Safemultilever Haha no bought quite some after it started trading again. Doesn't matter that much if you buy at [----] or 50% higher at [----]. This stock if it gets back to normal again should be able to get a market cap of at least $100m. Nice multi bagger" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1828177235360072094) 2024-08-26T21:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The moored semi segment supply is getting really low. Good for $DDRIL.ol and $NE with the old $DO semi subs - dont underestimate their cash generating abilities. Rotating some of my oil stocks that are holding up (ao $PBR) to $VAL & $NE. Which are down much more than $RIG on an EV basis" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1832101889715892632) 2024-09-06T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Offshore drillers continue to crash down. Sure oil prices are down but don't forget the supply side here. No new builds will (ever) be build. And in case it all crashes even more older drillships will be scrapped making the offshore market even more tight. Buying more and more $NE and $VAL. Which are down much more than $RIG on an EV basis. On $RIG never got why bother they lack the downside protection with all their debt and not that much more upside compared to $NE and $VAL" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1832127599083917569) 2024-09-06T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@staffpro11 @calvinfroedge Haha or just buy LEAPS to keep the principal at risk low. Down quite a bit on $SBSW but damage limited through LEAPS at $5 and $7.5 - imo still a nice play for the options with maturity in '26" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1833552346321723650) 2024-09-10T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@calvinfroedge @staffpro11 Just looking at the option chain. Buy the $50c puts for Jan'26 at $2.5. Downside limited to $2. Shares keep full upside. But feels like Thursday can add maybe even more hate" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1833553815741632986) 2024-09-10T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$SBSW Am down quite a bit on the name. One of the most hated names at the moment. But not for the first time in its history it's a pure cyclical stock. Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉) Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1833578247747228035) 2024-09-10T18:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@xworld010 Over indebted stocks go bankrupt. This seems but let's have another look on Thursday a lot of pain but not fatal. Btw headline earnings will be down a lot but that's for a large part impairments not cash out. Also getting very interested in $SPL.L - net net soon" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1833753951008670061) 2024-09-11T06:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@MugsLuck That would just make so much sense. No debt worries Huge floater only fleet Great news for $NE and $VAL too. And more important the most woke appropriate name" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1834122059607089253) 2024-09-12T06:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Hierony69122434 @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 $NOL.OL would also fit great in a potential later deal between $SDRL and $RIG. This would make $RIG above all the absolute No1 in the harsh environment and gives them an insane good negotiation postion for anything in Norway that needs a 6th gen HE rig" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1834522319059914766) 2024-09-13T09:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ICBarrett @Hierony69122434 @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 No idea something to consider indeed" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1834625021911650340) 2024-09-13T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@oilgastourist Another issue for Kistos is that so many higher quality O&G names (i.e. $HBR.L) are super cheap as well. Why bother" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1838867393658912857) 2024-09-25T09:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BuyCheapNPray And if you want to speculate a lot. Their options are super cheap due to the dividend" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1839379058456698896) 2024-09-26T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ValueEric Nice list. One more to consider is the other Dundee. $dc-a.to" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1839690482508611870) 2024-09-27T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "On top of my head net cash 40% of market cap (after today's rise maybe 35%). Got a 3% stake in a pharma called TauRx. Could be worth 5x the market cap of Dundee. Underlying mining stocks have a value of 181m CAD. Market cap is 142m CAD. Very good selection too. I like in particular $Nicu.v" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1839700323469766944) 2024-09-27T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DundeeCorp As a shareholder - Would be great if this turns out to be the worst sell ever😉" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1839713843225997695) 2024-09-27T17:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If true and the follow up reaction would be an attack on Iranian oil facilities a gigantic jump in the oil price will take place. (also due to painful short covering). Just cant imagine the US to support such an attack right before the election. BREAKING: Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea were destroyed 80% of the israeli gas is comming from them https://t.co/kRHdK4Wf6D BREAKING: Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea were destroyed 80% of the israeli gas is comming from them https://t.co/kRHdK4Wf6D" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1841191200528719976) 2024-10-01T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If it would happen huge upside for any oil producer outside the Middle-East region. $AOI $PBR $EC but also all those active in places like Venezuela can imagine sanctions will be much lighter to keep prices under control - most torque here imo $MAHA-A.st Oil shoots higher as Biden is said to be discussing an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities: Bloomberg #OOTT #IsraelIranWar https://t.co/fKLTrL4lUw Oil shoots higher as Biden is said to be discussing an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities: Bloomberg #OOTT #IsraelIranWar https://t.co/fKLTrL4lUw" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1841851849948766507) 2024-10-03T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I struggle with exactly these points. However the value in GMX is undeniable. I was expecting the Fayolla royalty to be the catalyst for some serious shareprice appreciation but nothing happend yet. As Jack often says in interviews the lack of fund raising reduces the attention he gets from brokers etc. Seems btw like quite a unique guy with prudent characteristics I wish more CEO's would have. (especially in mining) One more on the upside. Although Cerrado Gold ( $CERT.V ) is struggling a bit over the last year their Mont Sorcier project could have huge impact on Globex if it gets in" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1841966084045304095) 2024-10-03T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Henrik115 Congrats and great call Your post made me aware of $APM.v. Sold out recently after a 100%+ gain to rotate into $DC-a.to. Thanks" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1842185954473476574) 2024-10-04T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Henrik115 Btw did you ever have a look at $SRL.v Very interesting play carried to production of the El Domo mine which is now fully funded and construction managed by the experienced mine builders of Silvercorp" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1842186522931667326) 2024-10-04T12:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Very nice illustration of oil markets sentiment. The current bad sentiment clearly affects share prices of offshore drillers and OSV providers like $NE $VAL $SDRL. Which probably from a fundamental and market tightness viewpoint are now very attractive and in absolute bargain territory @CornerstoneOil Probably the bottom is already in https://t.co/qG6JgumkKb @CornerstoneOil Probably the bottom is already in https://t.co/qG6JgumkKb" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1846573990737047984) 2024-10-16T15:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "What's the worst that can happen at these prices Assuming offshore drilling is not going away in the next 20-30 years (Namibia Brazil Guyana Norway etc all need those rigs). Some 6th gen drillships will stay in lay up or finally get scrapped as there is no economic case to reactivate those/ pay the expensive special periodic surveys (looking at you $rig). Which is fine and makes a tight market only tighter. With even less supply and zero new builds on the horizon this cycle is truly different. And of course beautiful balance sheets for $VAL $SDRL and $NE" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1847098578919125406) 2024-10-18T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@oilgastourist Thanks very curious how this will play out. Like you I also was expecting a much higher share price on this news. But lets see also looking forward to their plan on bringing the production levels back to (close to) pre deal levels" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1848355780959056018) 2024-10-21T13:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The potential for $TNZ.to free cashflows gives me similar feelings to when $SD was trading at like $3 (not $1 that was just insane) Think a large part is seasonality but the stupidity of the British profit levy and the permanent closure of the Groningen gas field have a serious effect on the European gas supply" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1849466178890269166) 2024-10-24T15:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As always very insightful - although not sure if $630k will be the ceiling but dont care happy with the cash flow at that rate. Being aware of SPS costs that can get quite high (e.g. West Phoenix needing $100m in capex - like half of $VAL or $NE 7th gen equiv valuation). Do you see any difference from a pure maintenance perspective between those more cash strapped ( $RIG) vs those with cleaner balance sheets ( $VAL / $NE)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1849714155613528355) 2024-10-25T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "In the Noble Maersk merger they had to spin off some assets. May be the case here as well. But enough players around I'd say. Noble Diamond also wasn't an issue. But coming back to the maintenance part. @offshoremayor thanks also great analogy and something I saw as well (albeit as a banker so at more distance) when reactivating laid up PSV's it came with tons of issues with the steel and also electric wiring. From a drillers perspective it perhaps can be spinned positively. If these sps/reactivation costs really get out of control (eg more than $100m). I wouldn't be surprised to see some" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1849751271080853646) 2024-10-25T09:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@oilgastourist They will all get Saudi Arabia wealth if they play it well and aren't stupidly greedy. Don't forget only 2.5m people" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1850860758973952204) 2024-10-28T11:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Ultradeep3 I really like $borr at this price point but then looking at EV for me $val and $ne are just more attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1850911443488841733) 2024-10-28T14:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Nice shareholder returns at $NE. Noble bought back about 4% of its shares for $250m on top of their dividend. One way of looking at is that they bought like 1.2x 7th gen drillships in the quarter lol (see Pareto DO + NE [--] 7th gen Equiv). $VAL is also doing buybacks at these lows and $RIG while probably having the highest quality fleet needs to dilute even more by acquiring $SDRL. Balance sheet strenght matters. Meanwhile $NE quietly did $250M while also paying a divvy and acquiring another company. 🥇 "The Company repurchased approximately [---] million shares in the third quarter for $250" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1854129622478102530) 2024-11-06T11:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@PerpetualValue Looks good indeed. Closing of the financing on the 14th of November concurrent to a new M&A transaction ;). Simply looking at the additional CF from the higher TTF gas prices they probably dont need much cash upon closing" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1854807877468209646) 2024-11-08T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It's serious unfortunate what they had in Nigeria. This one feels different is there a future for the Borgland especially with much younger semi subs from $VAL and $NE available The UK government kinda destroyed the business case for $DDRIL.ol. I rotated most of my position in both $VAL and $NE which are truly stupid cheap at the moment" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1859215146037506518) 2024-11-20T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NatgasTurk Exactly and then taking in account that those rigs have maybe at most 10-15 (PBL jr) years in them. The DCF compared to the per rig value of $NE and $VAL is not worth the risk" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1859271533249655242) 2024-11-20T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Maybe my biggest regret and also a good lesson not to be too greedy. Had an order out at like [--] or so. Should have just gotten it at [--] something. The legal structure of the company was also rather difficult/tricky. Which made the likelihood rather low that the bondholders could enforce on potentially defaulting bonds get ownership of the assets and leave the equity (incl preferred) worthless" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1861756196601856244) 2024-11-27T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC @CliffEngleLtd @rekurencja Or finally a Chapter [--] and no stupid Swiss laws preventing it" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1864399662959980911) 2024-12-04T20:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC @CliffEngleLtd @rekurencja Haha don't expect it. The easy way out of the debt load is the merger with Seadrill. For the sake of all offshore drillers please let it happen and scrap all those old 6th gen drillships (same for Noble and Valaris). We need a tighter market it benefits all" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1864407764639854770) 2024-12-04T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@oilgastourist @_NameValue_ Congrats and thanks for the great articles" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1866896213939015953) 2024-12-11T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "So that's a dayrate close to 450k for [--] years on a 6th gen drillship. Who knows maybe the 7th gen drillships of $VAL and $NE are worth more than scrap. 📢 Constellation Oil Services has won a new multi-year assignment #offshore #Brazil for one of the #drillships in its #rig #fleet with Petrobras. ⚓ ➡ https://t.co/i4MCbXOwyO #offshoredrilling #rig #oilgas #energy #offshoreenergy #oilandgas https://t.co/8vhLM9xP4g 📢 Constellation Oil Services has won a new multi-year assignment #offshore #Brazil for one of the #drillships in its #rig #fleet with Petrobras. ⚓ ➡ https://t.co/i4MCbXOwyO" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1869067522714255652) 2024-12-17T17:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@AnxanumC @ICBarrett I already took out mob and extra services. But even at 400k. [--] years for a 6th gen. Fine CF. Valaris has a market cap of like 3bn" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1869121042729533641) 2024-12-17T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater Some good news ahead of the $RIG/ $SDRL merger announcement. Further consolidation would be a nice Christmas present for all offshore drillers" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1869296768489591174) 2024-12-18T08:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One of my favourite mining stocks as well. Interesting is that rarely their 3.x% share in TauRx is mentioned which on its own could be worth more than Dundee or zero. But still their net cash plus stakes in Magna and GMIN are worth more than its market cap. Especially after todays drop" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1869865707602882803) 2024-12-19T22:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TommyDeepwater Excellent article The new builds🚢 are looking great here in Las Palmas 😉" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1870852201813590344) 2024-12-22T15:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Mark_IKN @AdventusCEO Or does it imply that Salazar $srl.v is fully aware that the annual cash flow of El Domo to Salazar can be twice its current market cap So why sell unless it's like 8-10x today's market cap The benefits of being fully carried till production are not to be underestimated" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1871206856498319648) 2024-12-23T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "A few observations while we are nearing the end of [----]. A year in which it often seemed like nobody seemed to care anymore about cash flow or crazy stuff like balance sheet strength. Instead all that mattered were AI fairytales and catchy names (you go Fartcoin). And while I am convinced that like the dotcom bubble and all other mania before this one will also fade away over time it did make investing in [----] at times all the more frustrating. Looking back on the last years I realize that most of the positions in my portfolio are driven for a large part by the stupidity and arrogance of our" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1873708716463194394) 2024-12-30T12:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@NatgasTurk Thanks Plan to do a bit more write ups in [----]. Starting with one on $VAL" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1873813258114916572) 2024-12-30T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks I really like $GMX.TO have owned it for the last [--] years (and increased the position earlier this year). You summarized the investment case for Globex spot on in your write up. Btw have you ever looked at Dundee Corporation Different animal but some similarities incl a royalty on Borborema which is owned by Aura Minerals ( $ORA.to) will go in production next year and should bring in at current gold prices around CAD 4.5m a year" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1873814746509816305) 2024-12-30T19:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MugsLuck @ericeche @EWeitzner @sanderwiser Guess I like the extremes. Had some Saipem but also Dolphin and shortly even Prosafe😅 Last one might be interesting after a debt for equity swap" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1874106557178536449) 2024-12-31T14:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Well fair but what makes the dilution acceptable for me is that management participates and the final prize is large enough for me to cope with even like 50% dilution until first production. What I expect to happen though is a spin-off next year of the exploration assets and on holding business for the El Domo project - likely sold to Silvercorp" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1876567709112000620) 2025-01-07T09:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Ultradeep3 Time for Valaris $VAL too scoop up $Borr in an all cash transaction and become the premium jack up leader" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1876966751881081333) 2025-01-08T12:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@oilgastourist That would be pretty bad news for Maurel & Prom $MAU.PA as well as MAHA Energy. But if Trump wants to get Panama Canada and Greenland shouldn't control of the oil fields in Venezuela also be on the list" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1877618872582349230) 2025-01-10T07:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Frosty morning in Amsterdam TTF gas prices up 🚀 (go $tnz.to). Any better way to start the week than with a nice brisket on the BBQ😃🥩" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1878737335594176922) 2025-01-13T09:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Helix is also a great player with a good (unique) asset base that will have work for at least the next [--] years. I owned them for a while but sold after a quick double might get back in again. $VAL $NE and $RIG might seem popular on Twitter But don't underestimate the general (institutional) hatred agains the drillers and OSV owners. I worked on the restructuring of some of these offshore energy restructurings at a time many didnt believe the entire Valaris fleet would be worth much more than $1bn. A lot of banks and instiutional investor got so traumatised by the losses they pretty much" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1882395511186989164) 2025-01-23T11:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I like the jack ups too I guess plenty of them with the right maintenance and in the right location can make it to [--] years though. But yeah it is a market that will get tighter. For an equity play $BORR ain't that bad but $NE and $VAL that both have a great jack-up fleet are just too cheap for me right now to be bothered with any leveraged player. (Although maybe some call options on $BORR could be ok)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1882396439734616441) 2025-01-23T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$NE laid up drillships already looked a bit rusty last year in Las Palmas still a surprise to me that the 7th gen one will also be scrapped. When will $RIG follow the lead. Seriously the Deepwater Champion is now [--] years in lay up. There are plenty of recently warm stacked and recent newbuilds (incl 2x $VAL) available. These older stacked rigs will never come back. I support this message $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL https://t.co/2NQornMqJ6 I support this message $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL https://t.co/2NQornMqJ6" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1886768856271552867) 2025-02-04T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Pretty good news. $NE now has the largest fleet of non harsh environment semi subs after the acquisition of Diamond. Not much value seems to be given to these semis. Understandable as they dont earn as much as a drillship or 6th gen HE semi but think about all the P&A campaigns that need to be done all around the world for the next [--] years or so. They are perfect for that and they have a very long operating life look at $DDRIL semis of like [--] years old. The potential for very long income streams on these semi subs is quite nice (and no one will ever build a new one)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1887478546232217783) 2025-02-06T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "At current TTF prices not an unrealistic price target for $TNZ.to Flip side of the high TTF prices however is that it makes any acquisition in the Netherlands probably quite a bit more expensive (Neptune or Wintershall) National Bank initiates coverage on Tenaz: https://t.co/5nLomej7IX https://t.co/dWuFKbvE9R National Bank initiates coverage on Tenaz: https://t.co/5nLomej7IX https://t.co/dWuFKbvE9R" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1887846900830757373) 2025-02-07T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater As always you are spot on. In particular "The valuation difference between a warm and cold drillship is substantial given cold reactivation costs of $125-$200mm" Back of the envelop for Noble $200m equals the value of one of their working 7th gen rigs. Better buyback more stock" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1888245695368269829) 2025-02-08T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Got a lot of those names in common. Thanks for sharing. $SD was my favourite first picking it up at $6 and when it got around $1 going in quite big lovely returns. Sometimes valuations make zero sense. $CERT.v and $SRL.v are the ones I see with the most upside at the moment. (and $DC-a.v as the one with the best R/R)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1895548303963496662) 2025-02-28T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@alamo23445 @LingmerthStefan @hkuppy @Liftthatbid Lol going back to $50 is almost a 50% raise from todays levels. Insane that $VAL now has a $2.5bn market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896584152516047010) 2025-03-03T15:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$NE $VAL and $SDRL are now below or close to their market caps at the time of their emergence from Chapter [--]. None of them have any bankruptcy risk today if they all decide to scrap 1/5 of their fleet floater rates would go up straight to 5-600k and FCF to current EV would hit an easy 50%. Thanks to Noble's consolidation this market is now an oligopoly. Its up to the main players (incl $RIG) to keep the discipline and this will in hindsight look like a generational opportunity to make a lot. Admittedly I thought it already a generational buying opportunity when $VAL was at $45 $NE at $30 and" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896633249641677206) 2025-03-03T18:46Z [---] followers, 55.4K engagements "Not predicting the oil price but lets compare the situation to when $VAL emerged from bankruptcy. Oil around $40 a barrel. Large part of their fleet in lay up and they didnt own the newbuilds DS-13 and DS-14 yet (they do now after paying $337m) Lets really hope the drillers keep their discipline and stack vessels getting off contract or if old straight away scrap them instead of doing a Seadrill and accept contracts at too low rates ruining the whole market. IMO the last part is the real risk" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896636082621452749) 2025-03-03T18:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements ""Fun fact" about Seadrill $SDRL and buy backs Their total share repurchases since [----] amounts to $792 million which equals 22% of issued share count. For the same amount of cash they can now purchase 50% of the current outstanding shares" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896642058527621541) 2025-03-03T19:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Lol this didnt age well. #driller $odl.ol $ne $borr $nol.ol $dvd.ol $shlf.ol $sdrl $val $rig Sparebank1 markets bullish. https://t.co/3qALc0EvDL #driller $odl.ol $ne $borr $nol.ol $dvd.ol $shlf.ol $sdrl $val $rig Sparebank1 markets bullish. https://t.co/3qALc0EvDL" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896658466397430198) 2025-03-03T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@lasse108 @lePappa71 And $NE jackups thereafter" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896875149514989771) 2025-03-04T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TNdMXX Dont know enough about $URA and $FLNG to comment but $VAL and $NE are dirt dirt cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896951681952464960) 2025-03-04T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@biffgp Great option play but why bother if you can get $VAL and $NE at current prices - Just compare $VAL EV to $BORR's EV" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896952104289468917) 2025-03-04T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "A big point of frustration for me as well During the chapter [--] insane equity awards were provided to the mngt of the drillers that therefore had all the incentive to play ball with the funds that owned the controlling debt. Look at $TDW as well sure that mngt did a good job but the pay is insane particular if so many past shareholders/bondholders lost gigantic amounts" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1897309927405764653) 2025-03-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@offshoremayor @Christopher_01 @NatgasTurk Couldn't agree more Go $NE and $VAL ;)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1897679803492229474) 2025-03-06T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TommyDeepwater @simpelspekulant So USD 300m per 7th gen drillship - Using that figure for Valaris and Noble you get to values that are roughly double the current share price. $NE $VAL" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1898022856597950708) 2025-03-07T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@FriendlyCapMgmt Well they have been in there for a long time. And this includes 2m shares in a fund from [----]. Now almost [--] years later maybe LPs want their money back (Did not do any research in that specific fund structure but could be). Shitty timing as well" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1898676126500667693) 2025-03-09T10:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@FriendlyCapMgmt Maybe nice if $VAL buys all these Oakhill shares back at a fair price" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1898676361905999942) 2025-03-09T10:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Dundee Corp is now my largest position and my favourite way to have exposure to precious metals as well as some excellent base metal projects ( $NICU.v ) While my cost base is much lower than todays share price there is still much more room for growth. Not just to closing the valuation gap to Dundees NAV. But huge upside if only some of the portfolio companies of Dundee start to trade near like 0.5x of their respective NAV's. Note short term downside would be Taurx not getting approval (80% likelihood). But arguable that is already factored in the price. $DC.a THE "WORKS" In a recent" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1902039553663246395) 2025-03-18T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MCross08 @PerpetualValue And CH-11 time for $RIG. Now they are not in Switzerland anymore (the HQ) they can. Great opportunity for the new CEO to start with a clean sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1908234288107315645) 2025-04-04T19:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MillionaireBet8 They have more contracted backlog vs each of the individual other drillers. Combined $SDRL + $NE + $VAL have more backlog than $RIG. Also $RIG's backlog while impressive is pretty high due to contracts on the Deepwater Atlas which run well into 2029" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1908429344797610425) 2025-04-05T07:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Why bother with the $RIG unsecured In the downside scenario it's barely better than the equity without the equity upside - Just read through the chapter [--] filings from $VAL $NE and $SDRL. The fleet valuations will be a fraction of what its worth and the value breaks for sure in the secured and dont forget about the $500m or so in advisory costs. Better option - caveat I havent read through the prospectus $BORR secured bonds nice relatively new jack ups you get in a worst case scenario" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1909872488143614433) 2025-04-09T07:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@wallstcass @AdventusCEO @Geiger_Capital And afterwards take out $SRL.v around like [--] cents - Which is literally only like a 4x multiple on CF from SRL 25% share in El Domo" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1912155965446672632) 2025-04-15T14:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Not the worst day for the portfolio. Salazar $SRL.v up 30% . One of my top [--] positions (together with $TNZ.to up 13%). Upside on Salazar is quite a bit. Back of the envelop calc would suggest quite a lot more upside. $SVM (operator w 75% share in El Domo) will likely acquire them before the full potential will be reflected in the share price" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1914738864763068463) 2025-04-22T17:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Impressive budget slightly below FS capex with the inclusion of a $10m higher contingency budget. Great news not just for $SVM but also for $SRL.v who owns 25% of the mine free carried until production Don't forget Wheaton $WPM funds 175m (72%) of the capex for a 75% stream on the silver and 50% on the gold. Silvercorp Budgets $240.5 Million For The Construction Of El Domo Copper-Gold Project $SVM $SVM.to #copper #gold #mining https://t.co/3aXWZ1jKKR Silvercorp Budgets $240.5 Million For The Construction Of El Domo Copper-Gold Project $SVM $SVM.to #copper #gold #mining https://t.co/3aXWZ1jKKR" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1915031655959367906) 2025-04-23T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Way too much optimism in the market. The debt and tariff issues are not gone at all. Trimming most positions except for the gold holdings. Top [--] now $DC.a $TNZ.to $CERT.v $SRL.v and $VAL Cash well over 15% small short position through puts on Nasdaq and $WMT" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1915466029439787021) 2025-04-24T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Lots of optimism about this deal but the tariffs are still 50% higher than before liberation day and trust - especially for long term projects- is pretty much gone. I continue to be fearful. The huge indebtedness of the US is not gone at all also rates may not go substantially lower anytime soon. This "tariff crisis" might in hindsight look like a nothingburger compared to the issues in the bond market. I continue to derisk and build up the cash position + precious metals. Top [--] remains $DC.a $TNZ.to $VAL / $NE $SRL.v and $CERT.v BREAKING: US and China agreed to LOWER tariffs on each other" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1921879397784510509) 2025-05-12T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "What's the worst case for the $Borr bonds Chapter [--] Expensive but you get the equity with plenty of upside if you can sit it out. Perhaps more likely $VAL would just offer a nominal amount for the equity and take over the debt would make them instantly the leader in premium jack ups" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1925578721412444362) 2025-05-22T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Still building up cash and in selling mode (but did buy some silver stocks $EXN.v) Petrobras $PBR.a is very high on my shopping list - but can see it go lower especially in light of a broader market correction Not buying $PBR here is low key financial negligence. You're ignoring: Solid fundamentals Juicy dividends Oil exposure Global trade positioning Massive revenues Brazilian politics priced in. Value isn't. Big boy stock. Long-term banger. Bookmark this tweet and thank me Not buying $PBR here is low key financial negligence. You're ignoring: Solid fundamentals Juicy dividends Oil exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1932336090528030974) 2025-06-10T07:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks but the share price started moving only like a week after this news. If a positive decision leaked I would expect Genting to be up as well (owns 20% or so of TauRx) but they are down over the last [--] days. On the other hand Dundee has by far the most leverage to an approval of TauRx (should at least double from todays prices)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1933582584681779420) 2025-06-13T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@calvinfroedge If it wasn't for the capital gains tax perfect place to live" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1938644956547018836) 2025-06-27T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The gold and silver space is sadly full of scams/lifestlye companies. This is likely not one of them. Revival Gold $RVG.v got the reserves (3.2m oz Au M&I) a clear path to production at their Mercur project (old Barrick gold mine + good infrastructure) and is backed by some of the industries best such as Dundee $dc.a & EMR Capital. The financing comes without warrants another sign of quality. Current market cap before financing 113m CAD. Likely the NAV of their projects will be substantially higher than the 1236m USD shown at $3000 oz/gold through exploration success and turning inferred" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1945193630857109948) 2025-07-15T18:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Unfortunatly in any market correction which I see as more likely than not all drillers will go down fundamentals just dont matter. Even at current prices they are only slightly above chapter [--] levels. Best perhaps to keep a decent position on which you will be happy to add if the price drops but don't feel horrible if they only go up from here" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1946295613093818844) 2025-07-18T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Dundee's qualities are finding undervalued gems in the mining sector. Seems much easier to participate in an equity raise than to obtain a royalty. Also royalties see a lot more competition nowdays. I do see and would support Dundee taking direct ownership in mines as a JV partner which would also bring in direct cash flow Best strategy with Dundee is to own a lot and buy some more of their smaller positions that you like (I got lots of extra $RVG.v $STN.ax and $SPC.v)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1946854122235338994) 2025-07-20T08:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I meant as a key catalyst in the short term as perhaps a decision will come somewhere in the autumn Recent price action is indeed mainly a consequence of substantial value increase in their portfolio companies like Martime Saturn and Magna. (The reason for me to own Dundee) Also a bit more leverage compared to the market cap in Dundee on TauRX vs Genting" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1946913527639503202) 2025-07-20T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FredKosters Love these mining "restructuring" cases. Also for El Roble the last drillholes were not included in the reserves to my understanding because well why would they the mine licenses was about to end. The extension now with [--] years is a game changer" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1962801269585612842) 2025-09-02T08:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Silver__Santa @9KGOLD Ah that sucks I once considered emigrating to Belgium lol (Dutchie here). Now probably the Dutch system is better if you invest big in gold/silver miners nowdays. Effective fixed wealth tax around 2% ish instead of real capital gains tax" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1966444650140405913) 2025-09-12T10:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DarpResearch Very weird price difference. Congrats on the smart buy. Regardless the price today - even if it would be 50% higher the upside potential in West Witts is absolutely insane. Don't think people realise how soon this can get in production" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1972742491976970437) 2025-09-29T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Flew in today to Buenos Aires. Best way to celebrate a #Milei win 🥩. Tomorrow let's buy some more $cresy & $ypf" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1726394054856921303) 2023-11-20T00:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "4) The Borgland on contract with Enquest who seems to contribute upfront to the mobilization costs (footnotes presentation suggest $32m but this should include SPS contributions on the PBL & mob fees for Blackford to India). FCF contribution of about $40m is great for this rig" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1730367943806984565) 2023-11-30T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some highlights from the Dolphin Drilling $DDRIL.OL Q4 results. Main figure to keep in mind is the below EBITDA forecast combined with $DDRIL market cap of c.$150m. Further upside can come from options/new contracts on the Blackford and reactivation of the Leader" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1762136146769793384) 2024-02-26T15:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Something is going on at $DDRIL.ol / $DDRIL. The Blackford Dolphin started moving right after midnight. On its way to India Getting the damn rig out of Nigeria and on time to India would very much derisk Dolphin Drilling. Share price is up by over 12%. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:5.6/centery:4.7/zoom:6 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:5.6/centery:4.7/zoom:6" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1807710999480303756) 2024-07-01T09:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "True in such a scenario markets could very well push the TTF below [--]. (Nice to have some hedges in place) But I would be very surprised if it doesn't take years before sanctions are lifted and meaningful russian gas production reaches western europe. In the meantime however Tenaz should be able to generate substantial FCF especially in relation to its market cap. Regarding the supply side. I am also quite worried about the impact of the EPL on the long term gas supply for the UK North Sea. Years of minimal capex already now will have serious impact on total supply" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1818965822162755905) 2024-08-01T11:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@coeus12345 Thanks Bought a lot of $YAL.ax this morning a bit below $6. Feels like heads I win (great acquisition) tails I win (special dividend as mentioned in the call). Btw do you have any views on whether $WHC.ax would be able to take on another large transaction at this moment" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1825898709193744767) 2024-08-20T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Makes sense. Might be possible for $WHC.ax to team up directly with one of their potential 20% buyers and go after these assets. For a Japanese steel mill after all it is a really different business and I guess they would want to team up with an experienced operator. Anyhow got both $WHC.ax and $YAL.ax if the price is right happy if either gets it. Would be a shame if they start overbidding but surely everyone can see a threatening recession. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826153685975437358 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826153685975437358" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1826153685975437358) 2024-08-21T07:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@notanobject @OriginalBraila And its all offshore. If I remember correctly $VET had onshore TTF gas. Which after the Groningen earthquakes is just too tricky for me to tuch. (Also $TNZ still at a great discount to PDP value)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1849266830722080869) 2024-10-24T01:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "FCF was indeed disappointing. But from a capital structure perspective I would have been very supportive as a Noble shareholder for more buybacks even if debt funded. Plenty of room for some secured lending especially on rigs with longer contracts and 'benefit' from Noble's very low implied asset values" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1891619564733010370) 2025-02-17T22:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Ultradeep3 I have never been a fan of $SDRL always preferred $VAL & $NE but on an EV/RIG basis getting really cheap here. Also plenty of day rate upside when recontracting (still 3x 250k contracts in [----] limiting FCF)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1894343016296460469) 2025-02-25T11:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BuyCheapNPray Too many a bit hard to chose next to Tenaz $AOI.to $GPRK $HBR.L $JSE.L $MAHA-a.st $FEC.TO Also the drillers $NE $VAL and $BORR are insanely cheap if one can hold them for the next [--] years (or buy some bit out of the money Jan [----] calls on $NE and $VAL)" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1894663148906434714) 2025-02-26T08:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@phil_hk Wow seriously amazing news. Wonder how $0001.hk will open. At least 50%+" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1896973811867931054) 2025-03-04T17:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Pretty ugly day for those (incl me) that hold a lot of Offshore drillers. $Borr bonds make sense good assets that you get in the worst case. Much better risk vs the $RIG bonds Btw these prices for $NE/ $VAL / $SDRL should allow for harsher scrapping of excess rigs - scrap proceeds can be used for buy backs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908227551157195163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908227551157195163" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1908227551157195163) 2025-04-04T18:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Horrible week on the markets here with heavy losses ao due to large exposures in $VAL and $NE. I think these days above all balance sheets matter a comparison below Enterprise value of $VAL + $NE + $SDRL = $8.9bn Enterprise value of $RIG = $8.6bn Draw your own conclusions" [X Link](https://x.com/GrtMarc/status/1908420086928494781) 2025-04-05T07:23Z [---] followers, 11.8K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@GrtMarc MarcGRT
MarcGRT posts on X about $val, $ne, debt, $rig the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] +555%
- [--] Month [-----] +16%
- [--] Months [------] -84%
- [--] Year [-------] +84%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -58%
- [--] Months [--] +37%
- [--] Year [--] -21%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +0.72%
- [--] Month [---] +1.50%
- [--] Months [---] +13%
- [--] Year [---] +80%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies countries stocks currencies travel destinations technology brands social networks la liga us election
Social topic influence $val, $ne #592, debt, $rig, $sdrl #8, $do, $pbr, stocks, market cap, acquisition
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @tommydeepwater @oilgastourist @mugsluck @ultradeep3 @nickradical4 @perpetualvalue @natgasturk @calvinfroedge @james56487175 @philhk @hkuppy @christankerfund @icbarrett @panicnsell @sfarringtonbkc @nuggetcapital @coeus12345 @chrismozach @offshoremayor @henrik115
Top assets mentioned Validity (VAL) Noble Corporation (NE) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) PolkaBridge (PBR) Borr Drilling Limited (BORR) Nexa (NEXA) Bitcoin (BTC) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) Stader (SD) Iris Energy Limited (IREN) Newmont Corporation (NEM) Veno Finance (VNO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@Buy100ozSilver @medic_uk Great picks hope you are right. I own them all as well as some oil services such as $DO $TDW $HLX and $DDRIL (last one a bit speculative)"
X Link 2023-01-19T12:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Will start sharing a bit more about my portfolio. Largest postions currently: [--]. $PBR [--]. $AOI [--]. $DDRIL.OL / $SDSD.OL [--]. $FEC.TO [--]. $E [--]. $PRS.OL [--]. $DO [--]. $NMM [--]. $JSW.WA [--]. $EMX [--]. $GMX.TO [--]. $CKHUY [--]. $ECOR.L [--]. $TGA.L [--]. $THS.L [--]. $JSE.L [--]. $MAHA.SE [--]. $DIS.MI"
X Link 2023-09-11T09:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Wow thats crazy merger makes total sense but I can imagine potential issues with competition authorities see Noble & Maersk who needed a spin off and Prosafe with Floatel which collapsed"
X Link 2023-09-18T11:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@christankerfund Lol and no room for questions in the call. Still makes sense for him to convert and do the buybacks. Bought a few more at $1.55"
X Link 2023-10-25T15:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Thank you very helpful Maybe to share one more observation during [----] we financed some PSV reactivations (2-3 years laid up). Lots of issues afterwards from electrical wiring to literally holes in the hull"
X Link 2023-10-27T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Which is one reason why I like $DDRIL and $DO as they both have a good trackrecord in reactivating their semisubs (Great white/ Blackford) and why I take a conservative stance regarding (cold stacked) drillship reactivation and what problems might come afterwards"
X Link 2023-10-27T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SheDrills @kulppainting Still really weird $fec.to up like 7% and $cgxef down 3%"
X Link 2023-10-27T17:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AOI Africa Oil has two main assets. Prime just saw its licensed extended and is operated by Total/Chevron. The Venus field in Namibia may be one of the largest discoveries and worth $AOI market cap by itself. The share price crash following Nara duster provides a great entry"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$FEC.to Effectively [--] businesses. 1) Great exploration opportunity in Guyana with capex completed 2) Great Colombian upstream business with 40k bopd however not well reflected in fin metrics due to Guyana capex and 3) often forgotten midstream business for stable cash flows"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$ENQ.L / #ENQ Main benefit of Enquest is its very cheap price large tax loss assets mitigating part of the EPL tax pain (scandalous act by the UK government also risking their own energy security long term) and ability to rapidly pay down debt. Dividend maybe in 2024"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BowTiedMara Lol just arrived in Buenos Aires today soo many sad looking hipsters in Palermo. Hopefully some good changes can be implemented to control inflation"
X Link 2023-11-20T02:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Josh_Young_1 To provide a Dutch perspective. Only maybe a few months ago most parties would call voters of Wilders party either racist or dumb trash. What changed [--] October and in particular the follow up "demonstrations" to support Palestina/Hamas in Europe"
X Link 2023-11-22T22:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"A few observations on $ddril.ol Q3 results. Let's start with the bad ones that led to its share price decrease. 1) They are not getting paid on the Blackford in Nigeria . Definitely troublesome especially as the rig is now idle but too early to judge on the final outcome"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:24Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"2) They seem to have given up on the Bideford and Keppel newbuilds. (which removes some upside in the most optimistic forecasts) Now the good"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"3) Closing of the Transocean transaction is imminent. Even better looks like it is a lockbox transaction since June. Making the total transaction cost (ex fees) $49.1m being $6.1m prepaid + estimated $41m at closing vs the announced price of 61.5m"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"5) Lastly the financing $65m for $ddril against the PBL is very impressive as it is effectively 132% of the net purchase price to Transocean With the hire of the ex Awilco CEO and more cash coming in next up I expect more M&A (old semisubs from Diamond)"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@olaharaldmoen1 I dont understand. Why would they need another ATM From the Q3 balance sheet they have plenty of cash and a lot of the liabilities can be offset against the receivables in nigeria. Also at closing of the transocean transaction. They will get $65m new liquidity"
X Link 2023-12-06T12:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@oilgastourist Is this serious Not even close to the real value in BW Energy. Might buy some shares now and wait for the offer to improve. Do you expect them to get enough shares to actually close this"
X Link 2023-12-13T16:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@christankerfund Any insights on the convertibles Sold already 1/3 of my position for some nice IRR"
X Link 2023-12-18T17:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@James56487175 Really loved this one. Spot on analysis by you on this "nasty" special situation :) You were the first to highlight $Impp to me. Bought quite a bit but already sold over half of my position for some amazing IRR. Many thanks Best wishes for the Christmas days"
X Link 2023-12-22T15:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@respeculator They will all make their comeback eventually. Now is a great time to buy. I like in particular the royalty companies with large lithium & cobalt exposure"
X Link 2024-01-08T19:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MarhelmData The tight North Sea market is also evidenced by the Dolphin Borgland (one of the oldest semi-subs still around) being reactivated for work in the UK with pretty decent EBITDA margins. Also good news for $DO which has some older moored semi subs"
X Link 2024-01-09T19:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @Franfra51045228 @david_katunaric One guess it is listed in HK. It's debt is all non-recourse and its NY property is unencumbered Trading at 80% - 90% discount to book value and likely more at fair value"
X Link 2024-01-21T19:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @Franfra51045228 @david_katunaric Ah ok I was thinking Great Eagle $0041.HK Due to consolidation of its 50%+ shareholding in the Champion REIT it looks like they have quite some debt. Take that out (give it wrongfully zero value) and you get at a large discount among others the 5* Langham hotels in NY & London"
X Link 2024-01-21T19:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@trigonmetals Great news. Exciting that the underground mining can soon begin"
X Link 2024-01-23T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MikeSchuler @ed_fin Feels like this was the final straw. UK & US will fire back"
X Link 2024-01-26T19:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@addicted2Musk @MikeSchuler @ed_fin What they did was more an action to scare the houthi's than a serious military action. If they cant stop the houthi's with relatively limited force maybe next up some boots on the ground"
X Link 2024-01-26T19:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Thanks very interesting as they with Floatel are the two leading players in this market. Regarding demand I believe they are more a later stage play when the fields are actually being developed and thereafter maintained"
X Link 2024-01-28T09:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater What I like most is that it trades at a fraction of replacement costs there won't be newbuilds and in particular namibia I can see those floatels being required due to harsh environment which would tilt the tight supply/demand balance. still speculative due to its debt position"
X Link 2024-01-28T09:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Soo as a consequence Europe can't access US gas. Germany closed nuclear plants. Good thing there is good old coal for the rescue. Great move to improve climate change🤦♂ Never thought we would see the day. The White House is amplifying our Twitter account. Words fail. Words fail. Words utterly fail. https://t.co/G6hFNLofGZ Never thought we would see the day. The White House is amplifying our Twitter account. Words fail. Words fail. Words utterly fail. https://t.co/G6hFNLofGZ"
X Link 2024-01-28T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck @NICKRADICAL4 Haha when no one cares its best moment to increase your position. Bought some more $VAL & $SDRL :)"
X Link 2024-02-02T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Desk research is great but also a lot of fun to actually see the assets you are invested in. $VAL $NE"
X Link 2024-02-04T11:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The 100m reactivation of the $VAL DS-7"
X Link 2024-02-04T11:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A bit harder to see but the Pacific Scirocco and Meltem from $NE. In lay up since [----] & 2020"
X Link 2024-02-04T11:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck @ICBarrett @NICKRADICAL4 @_EnergyRealist Just posted a few pics. Was good fun to see. Have to say the old Pacific ones from Noble didn't look that great after almost [--] - [--] year in lay up"
X Link 2024-02-04T11:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today"
X Link 2024-02-04T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@DWDrillingBits @Ultradeep3 Sounds reasonable they'd do that. Quite a fuck up indeed with the greatwhite at least no one injured. Regardless still like $do imo key takeover candidate"
X Link 2024-02-08T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@James56487175 Nice presentation they have. If you are risk-averse you should NOT buy our shares😂 Personally still like $apm.v a bit better and curious to see how $cert.v will develop but insane amount of bargains with the precious metals. Even large caps like $nem are very cheap"
X Link 2024-02-09T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@OlaRugsveen @agnostoxxx Very interesting opportunity indeed. While being a debt pension obligations are imo the nicest debt you can have. No covenants (divi can continue) and very long maturity"
X Link 2024-02-16T08:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @triangulate Any thoughts on the argument that the fleet of $DO is too diverse with its moored semisubs and therefore less attractive for M&A"
X Link 2024-02-26T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @triangulate In my view btw it would be the last great acquisition that $VAL and $SDRL can do. Especially if they can fund (most) of it with new debt against their fleet. On an EV basis paying $250m or $300m for a 7th gen equiv floater will look like a mastermove in [--] years time"
X Link 2024-02-26T17:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Not the best day for my portfolio thanks to a.o. $PBR & $DO. But did Prates really say that much new today Acquisitions in Oil and Petrochemicals are not necesarily bad. And frankly speaking in Brazil solar on land kinda could work. At least a lot better than in Germany"
X Link 2024-02-28T19:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@unusual_whales Which makes it all the more important to look for REIT's with mostly non-recourse debt such as $VNO. Will be interesting when banks/bond holders receive the keys of assets en masse in unpopular places such as San Fransisco. Who can exit first while there is still liquidity"
X Link 2024-02-29T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Geologo_Trader Its amazing just spend [--] weeks there. Great meat (especially lamb). While hiking in el Chalten I could drink the water straight from the mountain river. Bariloche might even be my favourite amazing nature great hikes and cycling paths. Also loved the Llao Llao hotel $CRESY"
X Link 2024-03-03T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great new contract for $DO. Contract suggest dayrate of c. $480k p/day. Best thing direct continuation of current contract so no white space. Diamond Offshore clinches new $350m drillship deal with BP https://t.co/uQcH0lue4k https://t.co/GZYpsFbtWr Diamond Offshore clinches new $350m drillship deal with BP https://t.co/uQcH0lue4k https://t.co/GZYpsFbtWr"
X Link 2024-03-04T08:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Previous contract for the Ocean Blackhornet with BP was at a day rate of $397k/ day. Nice step up for $DO"
X Link 2024-03-04T08:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@phil_hk @ReturnsJourney @brandsttt4 @dodgingalpha @GlobalStockPick Thanks Phil For those looking at P/B or NAV discount. It likely larger than the 80% mentioned in the presentation as hotels are valued at cost minus depreciation. I would expect that all their owned Langhams are worth a bit more today"
X Link 2024-03-04T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This is great news. While I remain skeptical on how much they get back and when they get paid. It is very positive that the Blackford now can leave in a timely and orderly manner to India for its new contract 🤞 $DDRIL.ol https://t.co/dqBsJa0OJB 🤞 $DDRIL.ol https://t.co/dqBsJa0OJB"
X Link 2024-03-26T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Panic_n_Sell But why would it I dont see the incentive for the CEO to improve the shareprice. Feels like he (or his mom😂) enjoys accumalating at the lower levels and prefers building out a shipping empire over a higher market cap. Still great company imo to play by writing puts"
X Link 2024-04-03T06:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hkuppy @BobRobotti Congrats I bought quite a bit at $5/$6 thought it was the best trade ever when I sold all around $20. Great management team happy to see them doing so well (visited them once in hindsight a lesson if mngt has a very modest office probably good/prudent mngt)"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"If even established banks like BAML are saying this. Imo implication of money printing will be increases in the broader commodities market including precious metals base metals and energy Gold to reach $3000 Gold prices are projected to jump to $3000 per ounce by [----] according to Bank of America buoyed by strong demand from central banks and the anticipation of investors returning to the market once the Federal Reserve begins to slash interest rates. Gold to reach $3000 Gold prices are projected to jump to $3000 per ounce by [----] according to Bank of America buoyed by strong demand from"
X Link 2024-04-11T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) They got almost 60Mlb of uranium Mineral reserves Just in case you think you are late to the SBSW party have a look at the [--] year graph. It is only just beginning. Maybe now is the time for those diamond hands"
X Link 2024-04-12T09:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DeniauThierry Dilution is rarely wonderful but having balance sheet flexibility at times like these is valuable. Imo the restructuring makes sense. Lower supply and lower costs. I'm not expecting the [----] to be a great year but [----] should be"
X Link 2024-04-12T15:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DeniauThierry Good to position now while it is still unloved and imo whether your base entry is 4.x or 6ish doesn't matter. Stock has the levers to hit $25 in 2025"
X Link 2024-04-12T15:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@perinplobato @capitalemployed Thanks It is crazy how hated these Chinese RE companies are. Guess I'll spend some time digging through the financials/ debt situation. The share price almost suggest that some kind of fraud is going on. But yeah buying hated stocks is often the best way for outsized returns"
X Link 2024-04-23T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Worth to watch. The chips used for AI by a.o $NVDA require tons of electricity and new electricity infrastructure. Combined with the continued increase of electric cars the demand for copper will skyrocket. Interesting copper related stocks a.o. are $EMX $ECOR.L $TM.V and $GOLD. The other implication is that we need more as well as energy sources. The latter also being coal such as $TGA.L $BTU and $YAL.ax . Makes me highly doubt whether with lack of investments in mining and nuclear energy we can both meet climate goals and continue to benefit from (energy hungry) technology advancements"
X Link 2024-04-23T19:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShakeyPremis @BabyAnteaterInc @joeriwestland @Jamesiebabie1 @omniamea Any specific places/companies in Uruguay"
X Link 2024-04-29T08:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheDriller11 Exactly this and the VALARIS [---] that got released by Aramco is a sister vessel (one year younger but less water/leg depth). So guess it should be able to get a nice contract as well. Would be great if $VAL goes down a bit more didnt add enough :)"
X Link 2024-05-01T07:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@MugsLuck Think the main problem is that $RIG will struggle to repay their debt + service their debt without diluting the share count whereas $VAL uses its relatively low FCF today to buy back its shares at a fraction of replacement value"
X Link 2024-05-01T17:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@teerpnam1 @MugsLuck They are already diluting. From the Q1 call the fact that they didnt answer that is a red flag to me"
X Link 2024-05-01T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @teerpnam1 @MugsLuck Thanks please do shoot at the below happy to hear if got something wrong. Doesnt it just make sense to own $VAL or $DO instead of $RIG I also strongly prefer a clean balance sheet in case I am wrong about the drilling bull market"
X Link 2024-05-02T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @NatgasTurk Or do both acquire $DO fully debt funded. Should be possible for $SDRL. And continue to buy back shares. Dont stress if you overpay. Long term the value of the [--] 7th gen $DO ships plus the semisubs (great white). Should at least be well over $2.5bn"
X Link 2024-05-20T07:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @NatgasTurk And if $SDRL share price declines following the acquisition. No stress as long term shareholder it allows for even cheaper buybacks :) Btw $SDRL can of course be replaced here with $VAL as well. Same rationale"
X Link 2024-05-20T07:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@christankerfund Could end up being the best/most fun special situation of [----] (as long as Harry now plays his games only in $CISS)"
X Link 2024-05-22T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck Lots of scrapping lately with $DO and $DDRIL 2x. Good for the market and all parties. Will get very interesting if some 6th gen drillships will be scrapped"
X Link 2024-06-03T19:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Panic_n_Sell Any thoughts on the recent share price decline I cant get to anything other than maybe stop losses after [--] - Would be nice to see Harry's family members start buying again"
X Link 2024-06-06T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC Great article thank you Maybe to add in [----] their previous low point they still had like $1.5bn or so in net debt vs like $0.6bn today. Also its a much larger more diversified company today"
X Link 2024-06-07T09:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉) Why I love Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and thus I hate myself. https://t.co/yB6Iwcoio8 Why I love Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and thus I hate myself. https://t.co/yB6Iwcoio8"
X Link 2024-06-07T09:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@calvinfroedge Copper well over $4 and gold well over $2100 plenty of cash flow for many miners. Was a nice day to add"
X Link 2024-06-07T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As I am expecting a prolonged bull run in the gold and critical base metals space I am building out my mining positions in particular through LEAPS on $GOLD and $NEM as well as long positions in a.o. $HUM.L $SBSW $EMX $GMX.TO and $TM.V. Drilling services however are also a very interesting play to increase exposure to the mining sector without many of the mining risks. At today's prices some see very low EV/EBITDA multiples"
X Link 2024-06-11T10:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Panic_n_Sell Agree any views on why its down today Woud be great to see some more insider buying"
X Link 2024-06-13T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@trigonmetals Will the webinar replay be posted somewhere"
X Link 2024-06-24T09:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"From the press release that they sent out later that evening The Blackford is on its way to India. And looking at vesselfinder or Marinetraffic looks like it's indeed headed that way Regarding one AHTS vs two I am not sure - do they really need two (Do you know by any chance know how this was for the Borgland) My fear and also from own experience in Africa is that the settlement will take ages before concluding. I understand from the press release they had to put up a bank guarantee of $20m to get the rig out of Nigeria"
X Link 2024-07-03T12:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TRAVmoneyofmine Also bad news for $ecor.l / #ECOR. This should have been one of their main royalties especially after cash flow from their met coal royalty Kestral dries up"
X Link 2024-07-11T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NuggetCapital @TenazEnergy Well if you add it all up and be as conservative as possible (e.g. take the entire acquisition price off the 2P NPV bought). On top of that apply the discount to NAV the market gave the company before the acquisition. You still end up at a price target of c. [--] CAD"
X Link 2024-07-22T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I agree absolutely hated company and one of my largest positions (bought a lot more after the Blackford left Nigeria). Following the equity raise at NOK [--] they should have enough liquidity until the end of the year. At that moment the Indian cash flow starts coming in and soon thereafter the cash flow from the Borgland for Enquest. Any cash from Nigeria is a bonus. However FCF at some moment should be roughly equal to the current market cap of $DDRIL.ol"
X Link 2024-07-22T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Working on a little write up on the latest and very transformative acquisition of Tenaz ( $TNZ.TO ). Bought a lot over the last two trading days and still see an easy double before getting even close to fair value. Lots of similarities with $VLE.TO Anthony Marino discusses the NAM acquisition: https://t.co/UPlpF2JQU4 Anthony Marino discusses the NAM acquisition: https://t.co/UPlpF2JQU4"
X Link 2024-07-22T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My thoughts on Tenaz Energy $TNZ.to which acquired the NAM offshore fields in the Netherlands. Normally I shy away if a stock almost doubles in a few days. However here only a fraction of the upside is priced in. Key highlights: - Production increases from c.3k boepd -- c.14k boepd - 2P reserves of 53.6m boepd (11 years) with growth potential - Annual FCF higher than the market cap before the deal - Best part all without equity dilution"
X Link 2024-07-24T14:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Now one of my largest postions. Sold among others parts of my positions in $AOI $PBR $TGA.L to increase allocation to $TNZ"
X Link 2024-07-24T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@coeus12345 @YellowLabLife @PantheonResour1 Pretty high cut off point too for copper at $4/lbs"
X Link 2024-07-26T07:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@oilgastourist And if you are not Norwegian with the current exchange rate vs the NOK. Very attractive to buy Norwegian stocks. Got quite a nice $NOL.ol position. Just get some nice long term (financable) contracts in Namibia at $500k and ready for a sale"
X Link 2024-07-26T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The hedges for [----] are now actually below current pricing. (Winter is +- [--] euro higher). I believe this market is still tight with much supply (Groningen + Russia) gone - and immense supply destruction on the UK side due to the EPL. Further escalation in the Middle East plus a cold winter in Europe could propel prices back up to levels over EUR 50/Mwh or much higher"
X Link 2024-08-01T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Tommy Very surprised by the very negative reaction to $VAL. Feels a bit the market is forgetting the huge ramp up in cash flow in [----]. Some great contracts also in the last months. Comparing the fleet status reports from [--] July to the presentation of April [--]. Average DS rates up from 423k to 477k. Now just compare that the [----] levels. A huge up tick in FCF will come and is already locked in"
X Link 2024-08-01T18:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@JamesHMackay More $IMPP"
X Link 2024-08-02T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Did you add a few 100s of millions for the most helpful advisors. Do check out what in other restructurings was paid to them. They rank senior to you as an equity holder. Also don't forget outstanding taxes other creditors (payables) pensions salaries all senior to you"
X Link 2024-08-04T06:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChrisMozach Also in a debt to equity swap in general the equity boys get nothing and have a horrible negotiation position. Management gets a nice package though to stay in place even if they messed up in the first place🤣"
X Link 2024-08-04T06:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChrisMozach But they will get a new valuation and that will be much lower then the current value. Have a look at the offshore drillers. Their book values sometimes got downgraded like 5x"
X Link 2024-08-04T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ChrisMozach For me the best way to play these situations is either to buy senior (in the money) bonds. Or simply wait till the company re emerges from bankruptcy. Lots of former bondholders will be willing sellers of the equity. Great time to buy"
X Link 2024-08-04T07:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NuggetCapital But why not things like $PBR today as well as $SEPL.L"
X Link 2024-08-05T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ITOLDYA6 @NuggetCapital Haha Tenaz is still my largest position. Wish it will go down tomorrow (got a bit of dry powder) But the Seplat deal is also very attractive on so many levels. Plus lots of gas which is much needed with Nigeria's population growth My top [--] today are $TNZ.to $PBR and $Sepl.l"
X Link 2024-08-05T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PerpetualValue @oilgastourist provides all that (little calc needed). Think it is an amazing transaction. The downside is that you now have a shareholder for c.50% that is looking to sell. Upside you use your horrible (tax wise) assets to buy some really nice ones for a fair price https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/mfco4obr/240612-prospectus-publication-investor-presentation-final.pdf https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/mfco4obr/240612-prospectus-publication-investor-presentation-final.pdf"
X Link 2024-08-08T08:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PerpetualValue @oilgastourist On the debt situation. You get some more debt but its insanely cheap. Best one is the perpetual. If they are going to be an asshole. Just dont refinance it and enjoy the cheapest funding ever"
X Link 2024-08-08T08:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hcapinvesting And we used all those bought back shares effectively as performance awards for our board. Total fully diluted share count isn't down. Tbh the mngt does deserve a nice (share) bonus for this transaction"
X Link 2024-08-09T08:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree but I am really curious to see what will happen with the convertible. You saw some insider buying at $CISS. Would it be a plan for Harry to allow $CISS to repay the conv bond instead and try to get as much ownership direct in $CISS That would be a very bullish scenario for C3IS but for now I still see it more "logical" to try a bit more dilution and then get the shares of $CISS through the convertible. Maybe the trick is that Harry and family just buy the convertible loan from $IMPP at par and then convert in shares $CISS. 😂"
X Link 2024-08-22T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Frankly speaking if you want $RIG like upside. Just buy LEAPS on $NE. Pretty cheap and way more upside. Will $NE go down more also great you can pick up the shares for less but at least your principal at risk for the next [---] years is much smaller in case of a full meltdown - and if $NE goes down more $RIG is in serious trouble"
X Link 2024-08-23T07:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@offshoremayor Btw always appreciate your views with real life insides Any views on whether the laid up vessels of $RIG will ever come back I completely discard them. Saw some PSV's once after being in lay up for [--] years completely messed up"
X Link 2024-08-23T08:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Safemultilever Haha no bought quite some after it started trading again. Doesn't matter that much if you buy at [----] or 50% higher at [----]. This stock if it gets back to normal again should be able to get a market cap of at least $100m. Nice multi bagger"
X Link 2024-08-26T21:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The moored semi segment supply is getting really low. Good for $DDRIL.ol and $NE with the old $DO semi subs - dont underestimate their cash generating abilities. Rotating some of my oil stocks that are holding up (ao $PBR) to $VAL & $NE. Which are down much more than $RIG on an EV basis"
X Link 2024-09-06T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Offshore drillers continue to crash down. Sure oil prices are down but don't forget the supply side here. No new builds will (ever) be build. And in case it all crashes even more older drillships will be scrapped making the offshore market even more tight. Buying more and more $NE and $VAL. Which are down much more than $RIG on an EV basis. On $RIG never got why bother they lack the downside protection with all their debt and not that much more upside compared to $NE and $VAL"
X Link 2024-09-06T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@staffpro11 @calvinfroedge Haha or just buy LEAPS to keep the principal at risk low. Down quite a bit on $SBSW but damage limited through LEAPS at $5 and $7.5 - imo still a nice play for the options with maturity in '26"
X Link 2024-09-10T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@calvinfroedge @staffpro11 Just looking at the option chain. Buy the $50c puts for Jan'26 at $2.5. Downside limited to $2. Shares keep full upside. But feels like Thursday can add maybe even more hate"
X Link 2024-09-10T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SBSW Am down quite a bit on the name. One of the most hated names at the moment. But not for the first time in its history it's a pure cyclical stock. Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉) Great artcile on $SBSW touches all the key points. Buy it forget it and check in again in like [--] years or so. (maybe put a sale order for 50% of the position at $20😉)"
X Link 2024-09-10T18:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@xworld010 Over indebted stocks go bankrupt. This seems but let's have another look on Thursday a lot of pain but not fatal. Btw headline earnings will be down a lot but that's for a large part impairments not cash out. Also getting very interested in $SPL.L - net net soon"
X Link 2024-09-11T06:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck That would just make so much sense. No debt worries Huge floater only fleet Great news for $NE and $VAL too. And more important the most woke appropriate name"
X Link 2024-09-12T06:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Hierony69122434 @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 $NOL.OL would also fit great in a potential later deal between $SDRL and $RIG. This would make $RIG above all the absolute No1 in the harsh environment and gives them an insane good negotiation postion for anything in Norway that needs a 6th gen HE rig"
X Link 2024-09-13T09:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ICBarrett @Hierony69122434 @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 No idea something to consider indeed"
X Link 2024-09-13T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@oilgastourist Another issue for Kistos is that so many higher quality O&G names (i.e. $HBR.L) are super cheap as well. Why bother"
X Link 2024-09-25T09:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BuyCheapNPray And if you want to speculate a lot. Their options are super cheap due to the dividend"
X Link 2024-09-26T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ValueEric Nice list. One more to consider is the other Dundee. $dc-a.to"
X Link 2024-09-27T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On top of my head net cash 40% of market cap (after today's rise maybe 35%). Got a 3% stake in a pharma called TauRx. Could be worth 5x the market cap of Dundee. Underlying mining stocks have a value of 181m CAD. Market cap is 142m CAD. Very good selection too. I like in particular $Nicu.v"
X Link 2024-09-27T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DundeeCorp As a shareholder - Would be great if this turns out to be the worst sell ever😉"
X Link 2024-09-27T17:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If true and the follow up reaction would be an attack on Iranian oil facilities a gigantic jump in the oil price will take place. (also due to painful short covering). Just cant imagine the US to support such an attack right before the election. BREAKING: Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea were destroyed 80% of the israeli gas is comming from them https://t.co/kRHdK4Wf6D BREAKING: Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea were destroyed 80% of the israeli gas is comming from them https://t.co/kRHdK4Wf6D"
X Link 2024-10-01T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If it would happen huge upside for any oil producer outside the Middle-East region. $AOI $PBR $EC but also all those active in places like Venezuela can imagine sanctions will be much lighter to keep prices under control - most torque here imo $MAHA-A.st Oil shoots higher as Biden is said to be discussing an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities: Bloomberg #OOTT #IsraelIranWar https://t.co/fKLTrL4lUw Oil shoots higher as Biden is said to be discussing an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities: Bloomberg #OOTT #IsraelIranWar https://t.co/fKLTrL4lUw"
X Link 2024-10-03T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I struggle with exactly these points. However the value in GMX is undeniable. I was expecting the Fayolla royalty to be the catalyst for some serious shareprice appreciation but nothing happend yet. As Jack often says in interviews the lack of fund raising reduces the attention he gets from brokers etc. Seems btw like quite a unique guy with prudent characteristics I wish more CEO's would have. (especially in mining) One more on the upside. Although Cerrado Gold ( $CERT.V ) is struggling a bit over the last year their Mont Sorcier project could have huge impact on Globex if it gets in"
X Link 2024-10-03T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Henrik115 Congrats and great call Your post made me aware of $APM.v. Sold out recently after a 100%+ gain to rotate into $DC-a.to. Thanks"
X Link 2024-10-04T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Henrik115 Btw did you ever have a look at $SRL.v Very interesting play carried to production of the El Domo mine which is now fully funded and construction managed by the experienced mine builders of Silvercorp"
X Link 2024-10-04T12:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Very nice illustration of oil markets sentiment. The current bad sentiment clearly affects share prices of offshore drillers and OSV providers like $NE $VAL $SDRL. Which probably from a fundamental and market tightness viewpoint are now very attractive and in absolute bargain territory @CornerstoneOil Probably the bottom is already in https://t.co/qG6JgumkKb @CornerstoneOil Probably the bottom is already in https://t.co/qG6JgumkKb"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"What's the worst that can happen at these prices Assuming offshore drilling is not going away in the next 20-30 years (Namibia Brazil Guyana Norway etc all need those rigs). Some 6th gen drillships will stay in lay up or finally get scrapped as there is no economic case to reactivate those/ pay the expensive special periodic surveys (looking at you $rig). Which is fine and makes a tight market only tighter. With even less supply and zero new builds on the horizon this cycle is truly different. And of course beautiful balance sheets for $VAL $SDRL and $NE"
X Link 2024-10-18T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@oilgastourist Thanks very curious how this will play out. Like you I also was expecting a much higher share price on this news. But lets see also looking forward to their plan on bringing the production levels back to (close to) pre deal levels"
X Link 2024-10-21T13:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The potential for $TNZ.to free cashflows gives me similar feelings to when $SD was trading at like $3 (not $1 that was just insane) Think a large part is seasonality but the stupidity of the British profit levy and the permanent closure of the Groningen gas field have a serious effect on the European gas supply"
X Link 2024-10-24T15:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As always very insightful - although not sure if $630k will be the ceiling but dont care happy with the cash flow at that rate. Being aware of SPS costs that can get quite high (e.g. West Phoenix needing $100m in capex - like half of $VAL or $NE 7th gen equiv valuation). Do you see any difference from a pure maintenance perspective between those more cash strapped ( $RIG) vs those with cleaner balance sheets ( $VAL / $NE)"
X Link 2024-10-25T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In the Noble Maersk merger they had to spin off some assets. May be the case here as well. But enough players around I'd say. Noble Diamond also wasn't an issue. But coming back to the maintenance part. @offshoremayor thanks also great analogy and something I saw as well (albeit as a banker so at more distance) when reactivating laid up PSV's it came with tons of issues with the steel and also electric wiring. From a drillers perspective it perhaps can be spinned positively. If these sps/reactivation costs really get out of control (eg more than $100m). I wouldn't be surprised to see some"
X Link 2024-10-25T09:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@oilgastourist They will all get Saudi Arabia wealth if they play it well and aren't stupidly greedy. Don't forget only 2.5m people"
X Link 2024-10-28T11:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 I really like $borr at this price point but then looking at EV for me $val and $ne are just more attractive"
X Link 2024-10-28T14:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Nice shareholder returns at $NE. Noble bought back about 4% of its shares for $250m on top of their dividend. One way of looking at is that they bought like 1.2x 7th gen drillships in the quarter lol (see Pareto DO + NE [--] 7th gen Equiv). $VAL is also doing buybacks at these lows and $RIG while probably having the highest quality fleet needs to dilute even more by acquiring $SDRL. Balance sheet strenght matters. Meanwhile $NE quietly did $250M while also paying a divvy and acquiring another company. 🥇 "The Company repurchased approximately [---] million shares in the third quarter for $250"
X Link 2024-11-06T11:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@PerpetualValue Looks good indeed. Closing of the financing on the 14th of November concurrent to a new M&A transaction ;). Simply looking at the additional CF from the higher TTF gas prices they probably dont need much cash upon closing"
X Link 2024-11-08T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's serious unfortunate what they had in Nigeria. This one feels different is there a future for the Borgland especially with much younger semi subs from $VAL and $NE available The UK government kinda destroyed the business case for $DDRIL.ol. I rotated most of my position in both $VAL and $NE which are truly stupid cheap at the moment"
X Link 2024-11-20T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NatgasTurk Exactly and then taking in account that those rigs have maybe at most 10-15 (PBL jr) years in them. The DCF compared to the per rig value of $NE and $VAL is not worth the risk"
X Link 2024-11-20T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Maybe my biggest regret and also a good lesson not to be too greedy. Had an order out at like [--] or so. Should have just gotten it at [--] something. The legal structure of the company was also rather difficult/tricky. Which made the likelihood rather low that the bondholders could enforce on potentially defaulting bonds get ownership of the assets and leave the equity (incl preferred) worthless"
X Link 2024-11-27T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC @CliffEngleLtd @rekurencja Or finally a Chapter [--] and no stupid Swiss laws preventing it"
X Link 2024-12-04T20:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC @CliffEngleLtd @rekurencja Haha don't expect it. The easy way out of the debt load is the merger with Seadrill. For the sake of all offshore drillers please let it happen and scrap all those old 6th gen drillships (same for Noble and Valaris). We need a tighter market it benefits all"
X Link 2024-12-04T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@oilgastourist @NameValue Congrats and thanks for the great articles"
X Link 2024-12-11T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"So that's a dayrate close to 450k for [--] years on a 6th gen drillship. Who knows maybe the 7th gen drillships of $VAL and $NE are worth more than scrap. 📢 Constellation Oil Services has won a new multi-year assignment #offshore #Brazil for one of the #drillships in its #rig #fleet with Petrobras. ⚓ ➡ https://t.co/i4MCbXOwyO #offshoredrilling #rig #oilgas #energy #offshoreenergy #oilandgas https://t.co/8vhLM9xP4g 📢 Constellation Oil Services has won a new multi-year assignment #offshore #Brazil for one of the #drillships in its #rig #fleet with Petrobras. ⚓ ➡ https://t.co/i4MCbXOwyO"
X Link 2024-12-17T17:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AnxanumC @ICBarrett I already took out mob and extra services. But even at 400k. [--] years for a 6th gen. Fine CF. Valaris has a market cap of like 3bn"
X Link 2024-12-17T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Some good news ahead of the $RIG/ $SDRL merger announcement. Further consolidation would be a nice Christmas present for all offshore drillers"
X Link 2024-12-18T08:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One of my favourite mining stocks as well. Interesting is that rarely their 3.x% share in TauRx is mentioned which on its own could be worth more than Dundee or zero. But still their net cash plus stakes in Magna and GMIN are worth more than its market cap. Especially after todays drop"
X Link 2024-12-19T22:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Excellent article The new builds🚢 are looking great here in Las Palmas 😉"
X Link 2024-12-22T15:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Mark_IKN @AdventusCEO Or does it imply that Salazar $srl.v is fully aware that the annual cash flow of El Domo to Salazar can be twice its current market cap So why sell unless it's like 8-10x today's market cap The benefits of being fully carried till production are not to be underestimated"
X Link 2024-12-23T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A few observations while we are nearing the end of [----]. A year in which it often seemed like nobody seemed to care anymore about cash flow or crazy stuff like balance sheet strength. Instead all that mattered were AI fairytales and catchy names (you go Fartcoin). And while I am convinced that like the dotcom bubble and all other mania before this one will also fade away over time it did make investing in [----] at times all the more frustrating. Looking back on the last years I realize that most of the positions in my portfolio are driven for a large part by the stupidity and arrogance of our"
X Link 2024-12-30T12:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@NatgasTurk Thanks Plan to do a bit more write ups in [----]. Starting with one on $VAL"
X Link 2024-12-30T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks I really like $GMX.TO have owned it for the last [--] years (and increased the position earlier this year). You summarized the investment case for Globex spot on in your write up. Btw have you ever looked at Dundee Corporation Different animal but some similarities incl a royalty on Borborema which is owned by Aura Minerals ( $ORA.to) will go in production next year and should bring in at current gold prices around CAD 4.5m a year"
X Link 2024-12-30T19:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck @ericeche @EWeitzner @sanderwiser Guess I like the extremes. Had some Saipem but also Dolphin and shortly even Prosafe😅 Last one might be interesting after a debt for equity swap"
X Link 2024-12-31T14:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Well fair but what makes the dilution acceptable for me is that management participates and the final prize is large enough for me to cope with even like 50% dilution until first production. What I expect to happen though is a spin-off next year of the exploration assets and on holding business for the El Domo project - likely sold to Silvercorp"
X Link 2025-01-07T09:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Time for Valaris $VAL too scoop up $Borr in an all cash transaction and become the premium jack up leader"
X Link 2025-01-08T12:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@oilgastourist That would be pretty bad news for Maurel & Prom $MAU.PA as well as MAHA Energy. But if Trump wants to get Panama Canada and Greenland shouldn't control of the oil fields in Venezuela also be on the list"
X Link 2025-01-10T07:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Frosty morning in Amsterdam TTF gas prices up 🚀 (go $tnz.to). Any better way to start the week than with a nice brisket on the BBQ😃🥩"
X Link 2025-01-13T09:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Helix is also a great player with a good (unique) asset base that will have work for at least the next [--] years. I owned them for a while but sold after a quick double might get back in again. $VAL $NE and $RIG might seem popular on Twitter But don't underestimate the general (institutional) hatred agains the drillers and OSV owners. I worked on the restructuring of some of these offshore energy restructurings at a time many didnt believe the entire Valaris fleet would be worth much more than $1bn. A lot of banks and instiutional investor got so traumatised by the losses they pretty much"
X Link 2025-01-23T11:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I like the jack ups too I guess plenty of them with the right maintenance and in the right location can make it to [--] years though. But yeah it is a market that will get tighter. For an equity play $BORR ain't that bad but $NE and $VAL that both have a great jack-up fleet are just too cheap for me right now to be bothered with any leveraged player. (Although maybe some call options on $BORR could be ok)"
X Link 2025-01-23T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$NE laid up drillships already looked a bit rusty last year in Las Palmas still a surprise to me that the 7th gen one will also be scrapped. When will $RIG follow the lead. Seriously the Deepwater Champion is now [--] years in lay up. There are plenty of recently warm stacked and recent newbuilds (incl 2x $VAL) available. These older stacked rigs will never come back. I support this message $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL https://t.co/2NQornMqJ6 I support this message $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL https://t.co/2NQornMqJ6"
X Link 2025-02-04T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Pretty good news. $NE now has the largest fleet of non harsh environment semi subs after the acquisition of Diamond. Not much value seems to be given to these semis. Understandable as they dont earn as much as a drillship or 6th gen HE semi but think about all the P&A campaigns that need to be done all around the world for the next [--] years or so. They are perfect for that and they have a very long operating life look at $DDRIL semis of like [--] years old. The potential for very long income streams on these semi subs is quite nice (and no one will ever build a new one)"
X Link 2025-02-06T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"At current TTF prices not an unrealistic price target for $TNZ.to Flip side of the high TTF prices however is that it makes any acquisition in the Netherlands probably quite a bit more expensive (Neptune or Wintershall) National Bank initiates coverage on Tenaz: https://t.co/5nLomej7IX https://t.co/dWuFKbvE9R National Bank initiates coverage on Tenaz: https://t.co/5nLomej7IX https://t.co/dWuFKbvE9R"
X Link 2025-02-07T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater As always you are spot on. In particular "The valuation difference between a warm and cold drillship is substantial given cold reactivation costs of $125-$200mm" Back of the envelop for Noble $200m equals the value of one of their working 7th gen rigs. Better buyback more stock"
X Link 2025-02-08T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Got a lot of those names in common. Thanks for sharing. $SD was my favourite first picking it up at $6 and when it got around $1 going in quite big lovely returns. Sometimes valuations make zero sense. $CERT.v and $SRL.v are the ones I see with the most upside at the moment. (and $DC-a.v as the one with the best R/R)"
X Link 2025-02-28T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@alamo23445 @LingmerthStefan @hkuppy @Liftthatbid Lol going back to $50 is almost a 50% raise from todays levels. Insane that $VAL now has a $2.5bn market cap"
X Link 2025-03-03T15:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$NE $VAL and $SDRL are now below or close to their market caps at the time of their emergence from Chapter [--]. None of them have any bankruptcy risk today if they all decide to scrap 1/5 of their fleet floater rates would go up straight to 5-600k and FCF to current EV would hit an easy 50%. Thanks to Noble's consolidation this market is now an oligopoly. Its up to the main players (incl $RIG) to keep the discipline and this will in hindsight look like a generational opportunity to make a lot. Admittedly I thought it already a generational buying opportunity when $VAL was at $45 $NE at $30 and"
X Link 2025-03-03T18:46Z [---] followers, 55.4K engagements
"Not predicting the oil price but lets compare the situation to when $VAL emerged from bankruptcy. Oil around $40 a barrel. Large part of their fleet in lay up and they didnt own the newbuilds DS-13 and DS-14 yet (they do now after paying $337m) Lets really hope the drillers keep their discipline and stack vessels getting off contract or if old straight away scrap them instead of doing a Seadrill and accept contracts at too low rates ruining the whole market. IMO the last part is the real risk"
X Link 2025-03-03T18:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
""Fun fact" about Seadrill $SDRL and buy backs Their total share repurchases since [----] amounts to $792 million which equals 22% of issued share count. For the same amount of cash they can now purchase 50% of the current outstanding shares"
X Link 2025-03-03T19:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Lol this didnt age well. #driller $odl.ol $ne $borr $nol.ol $dvd.ol $shlf.ol $sdrl $val $rig Sparebank1 markets bullish. https://t.co/3qALc0EvDL #driller $odl.ol $ne $borr $nol.ol $dvd.ol $shlf.ol $sdrl $val $rig Sparebank1 markets bullish. https://t.co/3qALc0EvDL"
X Link 2025-03-03T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@lasse108 @lePappa71 And $NE jackups thereafter"
X Link 2025-03-04T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TNdMXX Dont know enough about $URA and $FLNG to comment but $VAL and $NE are dirt dirt cheap"
X Link 2025-03-04T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@biffgp Great option play but why bother if you can get $VAL and $NE at current prices - Just compare $VAL EV to $BORR's EV"
X Link 2025-03-04T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A big point of frustration for me as well During the chapter [--] insane equity awards were provided to the mngt of the drillers that therefore had all the incentive to play ball with the funds that owned the controlling debt. Look at $TDW as well sure that mngt did a good job but the pay is insane particular if so many past shareholders/bondholders lost gigantic amounts"
X Link 2025-03-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@offshoremayor @Christopher_01 @NatgasTurk Couldn't agree more Go $NE and $VAL ;)"
X Link 2025-03-06T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @simpelspekulant So USD 300m per 7th gen drillship - Using that figure for Valaris and Noble you get to values that are roughly double the current share price. $NE $VAL"
X Link 2025-03-07T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@FriendlyCapMgmt Well they have been in there for a long time. And this includes 2m shares in a fund from [----]. Now almost [--] years later maybe LPs want their money back (Did not do any research in that specific fund structure but could be). Shitty timing as well"
X Link 2025-03-09T10:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@FriendlyCapMgmt Maybe nice if $VAL buys all these Oakhill shares back at a fair price"
X Link 2025-03-09T10:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dundee Corp is now my largest position and my favourite way to have exposure to precious metals as well as some excellent base metal projects ( $NICU.v ) While my cost base is much lower than todays share price there is still much more room for growth. Not just to closing the valuation gap to Dundees NAV. But huge upside if only some of the portfolio companies of Dundee start to trade near like 0.5x of their respective NAV's. Note short term downside would be Taurx not getting approval (80% likelihood). But arguable that is already factored in the price. $DC.a THE "WORKS" In a recent"
X Link 2025-03-18T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MCross08 @PerpetualValue And CH-11 time for $RIG. Now they are not in Switzerland anymore (the HQ) they can. Great opportunity for the new CEO to start with a clean sheet"
X Link 2025-04-04T19:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MillionaireBet8 They have more contracted backlog vs each of the individual other drillers. Combined $SDRL + $NE + $VAL have more backlog than $RIG. Also $RIG's backlog while impressive is pretty high due to contracts on the Deepwater Atlas which run well into 2029"
X Link 2025-04-05T07:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Why bother with the $RIG unsecured In the downside scenario it's barely better than the equity without the equity upside - Just read through the chapter [--] filings from $VAL $NE and $SDRL. The fleet valuations will be a fraction of what its worth and the value breaks for sure in the secured and dont forget about the $500m or so in advisory costs. Better option - caveat I havent read through the prospectus $BORR secured bonds nice relatively new jack ups you get in a worst case scenario"
X Link 2025-04-09T07:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@wallstcass @AdventusCEO @Geiger_Capital And afterwards take out $SRL.v around like [--] cents - Which is literally only like a 4x multiple on CF from SRL 25% share in El Domo"
X Link 2025-04-15T14:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Not the worst day for the portfolio. Salazar $SRL.v up 30% . One of my top [--] positions (together with $TNZ.to up 13%). Upside on Salazar is quite a bit. Back of the envelop calc would suggest quite a lot more upside. $SVM (operator w 75% share in El Domo) will likely acquire them before the full potential will be reflected in the share price"
X Link 2025-04-22T17:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Impressive budget slightly below FS capex with the inclusion of a $10m higher contingency budget. Great news not just for $SVM but also for $SRL.v who owns 25% of the mine free carried until production Don't forget Wheaton $WPM funds 175m (72%) of the capex for a 75% stream on the silver and 50% on the gold. Silvercorp Budgets $240.5 Million For The Construction Of El Domo Copper-Gold Project $SVM $SVM.to #copper #gold #mining https://t.co/3aXWZ1jKKR Silvercorp Budgets $240.5 Million For The Construction Of El Domo Copper-Gold Project $SVM $SVM.to #copper #gold #mining https://t.co/3aXWZ1jKKR"
X Link 2025-04-23T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Way too much optimism in the market. The debt and tariff issues are not gone at all. Trimming most positions except for the gold holdings. Top [--] now $DC.a $TNZ.to $CERT.v $SRL.v and $VAL Cash well over 15% small short position through puts on Nasdaq and $WMT"
X Link 2025-04-24T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Lots of optimism about this deal but the tariffs are still 50% higher than before liberation day and trust - especially for long term projects- is pretty much gone. I continue to be fearful. The huge indebtedness of the US is not gone at all also rates may not go substantially lower anytime soon. This "tariff crisis" might in hindsight look like a nothingburger compared to the issues in the bond market. I continue to derisk and build up the cash position + precious metals. Top [--] remains $DC.a $TNZ.to $VAL / $NE $SRL.v and $CERT.v BREAKING: US and China agreed to LOWER tariffs on each other"
X Link 2025-05-12T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What's the worst case for the $Borr bonds Chapter [--] Expensive but you get the equity with plenty of upside if you can sit it out. Perhaps more likely $VAL would just offer a nominal amount for the equity and take over the debt would make them instantly the leader in premium jack ups"
X Link 2025-05-22T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Still building up cash and in selling mode (but did buy some silver stocks $EXN.v) Petrobras $PBR.a is very high on my shopping list - but can see it go lower especially in light of a broader market correction Not buying $PBR here is low key financial negligence. You're ignoring: Solid fundamentals Juicy dividends Oil exposure Global trade positioning Massive revenues Brazilian politics priced in. Value isn't. Big boy stock. Long-term banger. Bookmark this tweet and thank me Not buying $PBR here is low key financial negligence. You're ignoring: Solid fundamentals Juicy dividends Oil exposure"
X Link 2025-06-10T07:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks but the share price started moving only like a week after this news. If a positive decision leaked I would expect Genting to be up as well (owns 20% or so of TauRx) but they are down over the last [--] days. On the other hand Dundee has by far the most leverage to an approval of TauRx (should at least double from todays prices)"
X Link 2025-06-13T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@calvinfroedge If it wasn't for the capital gains tax perfect place to live"
X Link 2025-06-27T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The gold and silver space is sadly full of scams/lifestlye companies. This is likely not one of them. Revival Gold $RVG.v got the reserves (3.2m oz Au M&I) a clear path to production at their Mercur project (old Barrick gold mine + good infrastructure) and is backed by some of the industries best such as Dundee $dc.a & EMR Capital. The financing comes without warrants another sign of quality. Current market cap before financing 113m CAD. Likely the NAV of their projects will be substantially higher than the 1236m USD shown at $3000 oz/gold through exploration success and turning inferred"
X Link 2025-07-15T18:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Unfortunatly in any market correction which I see as more likely than not all drillers will go down fundamentals just dont matter. Even at current prices they are only slightly above chapter [--] levels. Best perhaps to keep a decent position on which you will be happy to add if the price drops but don't feel horrible if they only go up from here"
X Link 2025-07-18T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dundee's qualities are finding undervalued gems in the mining sector. Seems much easier to participate in an equity raise than to obtain a royalty. Also royalties see a lot more competition nowdays. I do see and would support Dundee taking direct ownership in mines as a JV partner which would also bring in direct cash flow Best strategy with Dundee is to own a lot and buy some more of their smaller positions that you like (I got lots of extra $RVG.v $STN.ax and $SPC.v)"
X Link 2025-07-20T08:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I meant as a key catalyst in the short term as perhaps a decision will come somewhere in the autumn Recent price action is indeed mainly a consequence of substantial value increase in their portfolio companies like Martime Saturn and Magna. (The reason for me to own Dundee) Also a bit more leverage compared to the market cap in Dundee on TauRX vs Genting"
X Link 2025-07-20T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FredKosters Love these mining "restructuring" cases. Also for El Roble the last drillholes were not included in the reserves to my understanding because well why would they the mine licenses was about to end. The extension now with [--] years is a game changer"
X Link 2025-09-02T08:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Silver__Santa @9KGOLD Ah that sucks I once considered emigrating to Belgium lol (Dutchie here). Now probably the Dutch system is better if you invest big in gold/silver miners nowdays. Effective fixed wealth tax around 2% ish instead of real capital gains tax"
X Link 2025-09-12T10:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DarpResearch Very weird price difference. Congrats on the smart buy. Regardless the price today - even if it would be 50% higher the upside potential in West Witts is absolutely insane. Don't think people realise how soon this can get in production"
X Link 2025-09-29T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Flew in today to Buenos Aires. Best way to celebrate a #Milei win 🥩. Tomorrow let's buy some more $cresy & $ypf"
X Link 2023-11-20T00:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"4) The Borgland on contract with Enquest who seems to contribute upfront to the mobilization costs (footnotes presentation suggest $32m but this should include SPS contributions on the PBL & mob fees for Blackford to India). FCF contribution of about $40m is great for this rig"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some highlights from the Dolphin Drilling $DDRIL.OL Q4 results. Main figure to keep in mind is the below EBITDA forecast combined with $DDRIL market cap of c.$150m. Further upside can come from options/new contracts on the Blackford and reactivation of the Leader"
X Link 2024-02-26T15:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Something is going on at $DDRIL.ol / $DDRIL. The Blackford Dolphin started moving right after midnight. On its way to India Getting the damn rig out of Nigeria and on time to India would very much derisk Dolphin Drilling. Share price is up by over 12%. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:5.6/centery:4.7/zoom:6 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:5.6/centery:4.7/zoom:6"
X Link 2024-07-01T09:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"True in such a scenario markets could very well push the TTF below [--]. (Nice to have some hedges in place) But I would be very surprised if it doesn't take years before sanctions are lifted and meaningful russian gas production reaches western europe. In the meantime however Tenaz should be able to generate substantial FCF especially in relation to its market cap. Regarding the supply side. I am also quite worried about the impact of the EPL on the long term gas supply for the UK North Sea. Years of minimal capex already now will have serious impact on total supply"
X Link 2024-08-01T11:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@coeus12345 Thanks Bought a lot of $YAL.ax this morning a bit below $6. Feels like heads I win (great acquisition) tails I win (special dividend as mentioned in the call). Btw do you have any views on whether $WHC.ax would be able to take on another large transaction at this moment"
X Link 2024-08-20T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Makes sense. Might be possible for $WHC.ax to team up directly with one of their potential 20% buyers and go after these assets. For a Japanese steel mill after all it is a really different business and I guess they would want to team up with an experienced operator. Anyhow got both $WHC.ax and $YAL.ax if the price is right happy if either gets it. Would be a shame if they start overbidding but surely everyone can see a threatening recession. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826153685975437358 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826153685975437358"
X Link 2024-08-21T07:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@notanobject @OriginalBraila And its all offshore. If I remember correctly $VET had onshore TTF gas. Which after the Groningen earthquakes is just too tricky for me to tuch. (Also $TNZ still at a great discount to PDP value)"
X Link 2024-10-24T01:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"FCF was indeed disappointing. But from a capital structure perspective I would have been very supportive as a Noble shareholder for more buybacks even if debt funded. Plenty of room for some secured lending especially on rigs with longer contracts and 'benefit' from Noble's very low implied asset values"
X Link 2025-02-17T22:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 I have never been a fan of $SDRL always preferred $VAL & $NE but on an EV/RIG basis getting really cheap here. Also plenty of day rate upside when recontracting (still 3x 250k contracts in [----] limiting FCF)"
X Link 2025-02-25T11:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BuyCheapNPray Too many a bit hard to chose next to Tenaz $AOI.to $GPRK $HBR.L $JSE.L $MAHA-a.st $FEC.TO Also the drillers $NE $VAL and $BORR are insanely cheap if one can hold them for the next [--] years (or buy some bit out of the money Jan [----] calls on $NE and $VAL)"
X Link 2025-02-26T08:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@phil_hk Wow seriously amazing news. Wonder how $0001.hk will open. At least 50%+"
X Link 2025-03-04T17:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Pretty ugly day for those (incl me) that hold a lot of Offshore drillers. $Borr bonds make sense good assets that you get in the worst case. Much better risk vs the $RIG bonds Btw these prices for $NE/ $VAL / $SDRL should allow for harsher scrapping of excess rigs - scrap proceeds can be used for buy backs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908227551157195163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908227551157195163"
X Link 2025-04-04T18:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Horrible week on the markets here with heavy losses ao due to large exposures in $VAL and $NE. I think these days above all balance sheets matter a comparison below Enterprise value of $VAL + $NE + $SDRL = $8.9bn Enterprise value of $RIG = $8.6bn Draw your own conclusions"
X Link 2025-04-05T07:23Z [---] followers, 11.8K engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing