# ![@GavinSBaker Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::340387261.png) @GavinSBaker Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker posts on X about ai, the first, open ai, elon musk the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::340387261/interactions)
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- [--] Week [-------] +9.80%
- [--] Month [---------] -37%
- [--] Months [----------] -68%
- [--] Year [----------] +220%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::340387261/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] +109%
- [--] Month [--] +28%
- [--] Months [---] +77%
- [--] Year [---] -26%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::340387261/followers)
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- [--] Week [-------] +0.28%
- [--] Month [-------] +1.90%
- [--] Months [-------] +20%
- [--] Year [-------] +34%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::340387261/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::340387261/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  28.04% [finance](/list/finance)  24.3% [stocks](/list/stocks)  22.43% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  11.21% [countries](/list/countries)  5.61% [currencies](/list/currencies)  #951 [social networks](/list/social-networks)  2.8% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.87% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  0.93% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.93%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) 20.56%, [the first](/topic/the-first) 7.48%, [open ai](/topic/open-ai) #488, [elon musk](/topic/elon-musk) 6.54%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6.54%, [$googl](/topic/$googl) 5.61%, [the most](/topic/the-most) 4.67%, [business](/topic/business) 4.67%, [inference](/topic/inference) #217, [more than](/topic/more-than) 3.74%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@atreidesmgmt](/creator/undefined) [@jason](/creator/undefined) [@chakravidhi](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@jiahanjimliu](/creator/undefined) [@patrick_oshag](/creator/undefined) [@antoniogracias](/creator/undefined) [@itsdanielwu](/creator/undefined) [@theinformation](/creator/undefined) [@ericvishria](/creator/undefined) [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@zephyrz9](/creator/undefined) [@patrickoshag](/creator/undefined) [@fundabottom](/creator/undefined) [@theallinpod](/creator/undefined) [@manglaniakshay](/creator/undefined) [@1neverq](/creator/undefined) [@bushwoodcap](/creator/undefined) [@mf_camillus](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LITE)](/topic/$lite) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)](/topic/occidental-petroleum) [Frontline Ltd. (FRO)](/topic/$fro) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo. 1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode. SRAM architectures have unique advantages in decode for workloads where performance is primarily a function of memory bandwidth. Rubin CPX Rubin and the putative Rubin SRAM variant derived from Groq should give Nvidia the ability to mix and match chips to create the optimal balance of performance vs. cost for each workload. Rubin CPX is optimized for massive context windows during prefill as a result of super high memory capacity with its relatively low bandwidth GDDR DRAM. Rubin is the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2004562536918598000)  2025-12-26T14:38Z 221.5K followers, 1.1M engagements


"@amasad Fascinating and really thought provoking. Thank you for sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2011514534167789622)  2026-01-14T19:03Z 221.5K followers, 38.3K engagements


"Delighted that @Atreidesmgmt is an investor in @maticrobots Seeing is believing. Everyone who doesnt enjoy vacuuming and mopping should buy one. I am buying one for everyone in my family and everyone at Atreides. Truly crazy customer love here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2016985175909961811)  2026-01-29T21:21Z 221.5K followers, 30.8K engagements


"Grateful to @mehul and @navneetdalal are building something special. Also fun to do more with Sutter Hill. And of course always great to be on the same cap table with my good friend @AntonioGracias"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2016985177990320385)  2026-01-29T21:21Z 221.5K followers, 16.5K engagements


"Cant stop thinking about this from @ericjang11"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2019446235493507470)  2026-02-05T16:21Z 221.5K followers, 76.2K engagements


"HBM DRAM DRAM NAND from a long term undersupply (longest to shortest) and China risk (lowest to highest) perspective. The equities have traded exactly the opposite way this year. Good post by @itsDanielWu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2021937035083493667)  2026-02-12T13:18Z 221.5K followers, 116.1K engagements


"Gemini [--] shows that scaling laws for pretraining are intact. This is the most important AI datapoint since the release of o1. This means that Blackwell models are likely to show a significant increase http://x.com/i/article/1991240038596898818 http://x.com/i/article/1991240038596898818"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1991248768654803337)  2025-11-19T20:54Z 221.5K followers, 1.2M engagements


"Deeply amused by all the confident commentary that datacenters in space do not work from a physics and engineering perspective. Elon operates two of the largest coherent GPU clusters in the world SpaceX is responsible for over 90% of mass to orbit and SpaceX operates the largest satellite constellation in the solar system. More than [--] years later no other company or country can consistently land and reuse orbital rockets. He publicly stated that the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar powered satellites. Maybe just maybe his pencil and paper analysis of the physics or the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998838018669686931)  2025-12-10T19:31Z 221.5K followers, 547.7K engagements


"Wild. And scary. AI is both the most important new technology of my lifetime and the fastest evolving technology Ive ever seen. This is not the Metaverse. This is not Crypto. This is not Web [---]. It will be ironic if proof of human saves Crypto. https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cloned-myself-with-ai-she-fooled-my-bank-and-my-family-356bd1a3mod=djemalertNEWS https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cloned-myself-with-ai-she-fooled-my-bank-and-my-family-356bd1a3mod=djemalertNEWS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1652349029714362371)  2023-04-29T16:28Z 221.4K followers, 642.6K engagements


"Deeply strange @nytimes article about @DavidSacks Leading in AI is good for America. And there is no way for America to lead in AI without American investors in AI doing well. Irrespective of whether those investors are Davids friends or his enemies. And like everyone who has been in Silicon Valley for a long time David has enemies in Silicon Valley who are also doing well by investing in AI. The most disappointing part of the article is that there an interesting debate to be had about the wisdom of selling deprecated GPUs to China that are [--] months ahead of Chinese domestic alternatives and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1995236624129466669)  2025-11-30T21:00Z 220.9K followers, 1.1M engagements


"1) The fact that Twitter is running well with headcount down significantly really matters. Whether they admit or not everyone in SV admires Elon. A lot of venture funded CEOs are sending emails like this; inspired by Elon and taking drastic action. Margins are going up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1601261872296361984)  2022-12-09T17:05Z 221.5K followers, 27.2K engagements


"@elonmusk Indeed it is. Looking forward to the next year on this platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1602012564799594496)  2022-12-11T18:48Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"1) The economy is accelerating hard in [----] which cannot be gratifying to Powell. They were hoping for steady deceleration which just isnt happening. No landing = hard landing is a good take from Michael Hartnett. Bearish charts followed by more positive ones next tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1626941269095206917)  2023-02-18T13:46Z 221.4K followers, 1.5M engagements


"1) DeepSeek r1 is real with important nuances. Most important is the fact that r1 is so much cheaper and more efficient to inference than o1 not from the $6m training figure. r1 costs 93% less to *use* than o1 per each API can be run locally on a high end work station and does not seem to have hit any rate limits which is wild. Simple math is that every 1b active parameters requires [--] gb of RAM in FP8 so r1 requires [--] gb of RAM. Batching massively lowers costs and more compute increases tokens/second so still advantages to inference in the cloud. Would also note that there are true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1883891311473782995)  2025-01-27T14:54Z 221.5K followers, 3.4M engagements


"2) Conclusions: 1) Lowering the cost to train will increase the ROI on AI. 2) There is no world where this is positive for training capex or the power theme in the near term. 3) The biggest risk to the current AI infrastructure winners across tech industrials utilities and energy is that a distilled version of r1 can be run locally at the edge on a high end work station (someone referenced a Mac Studio Pro). That means that a similar model will run on a superphone in circa [--] years. If inference moves to the edge because it is good enough we are living in a very different world with very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1883891313453470153)  2025-01-27T14:54Z 221.4K followers, 450.3K engagements


"OpenAI had a significant lead from summer [----] through spring [----] when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling law for pre-training. Being first to reasoning with o1 only led to a few months of advantage. Deepseek Google and xAI are at rough parity with OpenAI today. xAI arguably in the lead. Google and xAI will likely decisively surpass o3 soon as their base models are better. So urgent need for GPT-5 as the basis for a putative o5reasoning model. Sam noted that OpenAI would have a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1893348988386189774)  2025-02-22T17:15Z 221.5K followers, 3.9M engagements


"For the sake of clarity given some of the replies Grok-3 currently has a significant lead on Chatbot Arena and is the first model in a long time to be #1 in every category. These rankings are based on blind evals by humans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1893356200026116290)  2025-02-22T17:44Z 221.5K followers, 3.6M engagements


"Post the release of R1: DRAM pricing: increasing. GPU rental pricing: increasing at GCP and Azure. GPU availability: decreasing. Jassy and Sam: compute constrained per comments yesterday. GPT [---] disappointment: most likely b/c they couldnt make over 50k GPUs coherent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1895496815535132803)  2025-02-28T15:30Z 221.5K followers, 1.1M engagements


"I am saying Just grok it more every day. Fastest change in my online activity ever. Highly recommend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1897338058770682268)  2025-03-05T17:26Z 221.5K followers, 25.8M engagements


"Worth watching especially for anyone skeptical on DOGE. @AntonioGracias is one of my closest friends one of the most exceptional people I know and extremely high integrity. Grateful to him Elon and many others for serving at DOGE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1906785597035061369)  2025-03-31T19:08Z 221.5K followers, 10.3M engagements


"Geopolitically nothing matters more than winning AI. These tariffs as constructed essentially guarantee that America will lose AI by making America the most expensive place on earth to build AI datacenters. The semiconductor exemption was irrelevant for AI. Datacenter semiconductors come into America in finished goods from Taiwan and other Asian countries: servers storage systems and networking switches. By the time we have developed the capacity to domestically produce these systems we will have lost the AI race. Outside of this dynamic the assumption - or wild gamble - that other large"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1908140050795110746)  2025-04-04T12:50Z 221.4K followers, 819.2K engagements


"Amazon raising Blackwell per hour pricing. H200 rental pricing going up *after* Blackwell scale deployments ramping up. Might be important. And certainly more important than ridiculous $300 billion deals that are contingent on future fund raising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975969596676141293)  2025-10-08T17:00Z 221.4K followers, 401.7K engagements


"Google gaining search share two months in a row. Overall search instances accelerating from 3% YoY growth in October [----] to 27% in September [----] as GenAI expands the market. Funny relative to the hysteria earlier this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1976648151181193226)  2025-10-10T13:56Z 221.5K followers, 418.4K engagements


"Vaguely incredible that the @ft writes an article about how current GPU rental prices suggest that AI a bubble but makes a math error such that all of their calculations are off by a factor of [--] by conflating per server and per GPU economics. Doing the math correctly was actually reasonably bullish for the subscalers and super bullish for the hyperscalers. The article is ironically another positive indicator for GPU residual values. Credit to @ShanuMathew93 @zephyr_z9 @The_Colonel__ for pointing out the error"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1980058814809333887)  2025-10-19T23:49Z 221.5K followers, 748.6K engagements


"We need a moratorium on OpenAI public appearances and press releases to stabilize the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1986496125788962961)  2025-11-06T18:09Z 221.5K followers, 90.9K engagements


"Someone should look into what happened after SoftBank sold their entire 4.9% stake in Nvidia in 2019"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1988347638698177016)  2025-11-11T20:46Z 221.4K followers, 704.6K engagements


"Yesterday @RealJimChanos posited that Teslas relatively low capex meant that they were not a serious competitor in real world AI and Robotics. This is *exactly* the wrong way to look at it and the implications of this fact are actually positive for Tesla IMO. Teslas inference definitionally happens in the car so their customers are effectively paying for the inference compute capex which is now probably the majority of hyperscaler capex spend. Teslas capex might be an order of magnitude higher if they had to synthetically generate relevant driving data in a datacenter. Customer subsidized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1989708096919179504)  2025-11-15T14:52Z 221.5K followers, 459K engagements


"Completely agree. Sam Altmans manifestly ridiculous $1 trillion of spending commitments shifted the AI investing landscape. The market is more skeptical now. Ironically makes an IPO harder for them. Also likely ended any potential for a [----] style melt-up which is healthy. The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears -- how Sam's Splurge changed everything The worst kept secret among Tech market participants just something AI bulls dont admit out loud: they want a price-action bubble every bit as much as the bears do. Both want to see https://t.co/Rq3YAr9vbe The Non-Bubble that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1989788551626797162)  2025-11-15T20:12Z 221.5K followers, 469.7K engagements


"Jamie Dimon is likely to run in [----]. And this initiative will be a big part of his pitch if he does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998066717562744996)  2025-12-08T16:26Z 221.5K followers, 439.4K engagements


"Really good visual summary. Maybe there is something to this whole AI thing. I asked @notebooklm to summarize @GavinSBaker podcast. Dang its NOT bad at all. And it didnt even hallucinate (as much as old models). If you have not watched it here's the link: https://t.co/KCDXbJ5HdV https://t.co/FuJJpQOexj I asked @notebooklm to summarize @GavinSBaker podcast. Dang its NOT bad at all. And it didnt even hallucinate (as much as old models). If you have not watched it here's the link: https://t.co/KCDXbJ5HdV https://t.co/FuJJpQOexj"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998490592742187102)  2025-12-09T20:31Z 221.5K followers, 219.3K engagements


"Really fun to chat with @patrick_oshag as always. Investing as the search for truth peak TPU the reason xAI is likely to be first to market with a Blackwell model why AI is the first time in my career investing in tech that being the low cost producer mattered Google losing its per token cost advantage as a result of GB300 Rubin as an ASIC killer the impact of reasoning on the business model of frontier labs SaaS chess and perhaps most importantly: Datacenters in space. The final frontier for AI. https://x.com/patrick_oshag/status/1998440819078898140/video/1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998774569407291445)  2025-12-10T15:19Z 221.5K followers, 68.8K engagements


"Starlink v3 will be [--] kilowatts and should have no thermal dissipation issues. Elons stated plan is [---] kilowatts for each AI satellite; slightly less than a full Blackwell rack. Starship should be able to lift [--] to [--] megawatts to sun-synchronous orbit per flight. Inference will likely be the primary use case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998854525609033950)  2025-12-10T20:37Z 221.5K followers, 292.7K engagements


"Merry Christmas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2004306423799599548)  2025-12-25T21:41Z 221.5K followers, 70.3K engagements


"For the sake of clarity and as some have pointed in the replies I should note that Nvidia is not actually acquiring Grok. It is a non-exclusive licensing agreement with some Grok engineers joining Nvidia. Grok will continue to operate their cloud business as an independent company that is effectively a competitor to Nvidia and their customers whether hyperscaler or neocloud. Net net should be great for AI users. More competition more tokens. Merry Christmas and Tokens For All. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004708683490459925 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004708683490459925"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2004708683490459925)  2025-12-27T00:19Z 221.5K followers, 47.1K engagements


"Love @semianalysis but competition is good for everyone and @fundabottom is doing outstanding work on AI and the evolving data center architectures that underpin it. Deep $LITE: Googles Newly Introduced In-rack Switch Tray is Actually a Positive for OCS and Optics FundaAI Recently there has been extensive discussion about Google introducing a new in-rack switch tray within future TPU racks. The prevailing view is that this new switch https://t.co/gt88JxZS6R Deep $LITE: Googles Newly Introduced In-rack Switch Tray is Actually a Positive for OCS and Optics FundaAI Recently there has been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2008262963749417166)  2026-01-05T19:42Z 221.5K followers, 129.5K engagements


"@engine_rich @theallinpod @Jason Thank you for the kind words"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2014765435481141477)  2026-01-23T18:21Z 221.5K followers, 12.9K engagements


"My firm @atreidesmgmt will be voting in favor of Elon Musks performance-based compensation package. And I would prefer that *every* company I invest in have a comparable plan. I believe shareholders should generally support thoughtfully structured performance-based CEO compensation packages because they incentivize CEOs to create transformational growth and value. The basic logic of these plans is the CEO gets 10% of the incremental value creation if they 10x the stock with a 2x hurdle. So shareholders get a 900% stock increase and the CEO gets an incremental 10%. The first Tesla plan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1983911108248285581)  2025-10-30T14:57Z 221.5K followers, 16.2M engagements


"Claude in Excel. For Microsoft the beatings will evidently continue until morale improves. Also fascinating window into AI native vs. software: Claude evidently only uses Excel as a presentation layer whereas the Microsoft implementation uses Claude to run Excel functions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2015173495999623608)  2026-01-24T21:22Z 221.5K followers, 142.7K engagements


"Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in [--] days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2011421526722023889)  2026-01-14T12:53Z 221.5K followers, 435K engagements


"Revenue per employee up 75% for the top decile of AI/software companies in [----]. Probably doesnt slow down in [----] given the December revolution in AI coding agents. Nothing to see here move along. No evidence of AI productivity anywhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2017231599813722539)  2026-01-30T13:41Z 221.5K followers, 373.1K engagements


"Post: Feels like some important context was left off here. The HBM shortage/bottleneck is only half of the message. Below is the full response the SMIC CEO gave re the current memory shortage (translated using chatgpt). If the commodity DRAM and NAND shortage for PC and smartphones https://t.co/J4UbytNm6e Feels like some important context was left off here. The HBM shortage/bottleneck is only half of the message. Below is the full response the SMIC CEO gave re the current memory shortage (translated using chatgpt). If the commodity DRAM and NAND shortage for PC and smartphones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2021937038472491205)  2026-02-12T13:18Z 221.5K followers, 51.1K engagements


"@XiaomiMiMo @zephyr_z9 I wonder what this might mean for the KV-Cache driven NAND thesis. Hmmm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2021979612386144655)  2026-02-12T16:08Z 221.5K followers, 10.5K engagements


"Want to say that I really respect Rich Barton for trying to do something audacious that would've created immense value if it had worked. The [---] strategy and making buying/selling real estate "1-click" so to speak were powerful ideas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1455981062161682437)  2021-11-03T19:31Z 221.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Over the last [--] months [--] stocks (MSFT AAPL NVDA GOOGL) have generated almost 70% of the S&P 500's return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1467933725723967489)  2021-12-06T19:07Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Inventories building everywhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1504119218098343942)  2022-03-16T15:35Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"First time in a while I have felt real panic in the market. This is well beyond just forced selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1522250279806197760)  2022-05-05T16:22Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"1) Super bullish on megacap tech here - great inflation hedges broadly growing revenue/gross profit over 10% with high ROICs generally trading at all-time low EV/FCF and P/E multiples and almost all aggressively buying back stock. All-time is a long time. This isnt [--]. Or 00"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1524389193551687680)  2022-05-11T14:01Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"1) This is nothing like [----]. Valuations for tech peaked in [----]. At the [----] peak on a cap weighted basis the [--] largest tech companies in the Nasdaq traded at a 44% discount to the largest tech companies at the [----] peak using NTM EPS and 58% discount using LTM EPS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1526597349568659457)  2022-05-17T16:15Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Being too early is often the same thing as being wrong. I have been especially early this time and very wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1529108226628894728)  2022-05-24T14:33Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Commentators expected: 1) Supply chain difficulties to last into [----]. Ended this quarter. 2) Semiconductor shortages to last well into [----] esp. for autos. Ended this quarter per every major OEM. Commentators now expect food and energy shortages to last for years. Ok"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1536768734299402244)  2022-06-14T17:53Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Still no preannouncements. Companies broadly sounded better than expected across Citi Tech GS retail BaML lodging/gaming and BaML cable/telco. GS tech next week is going to be interesting. Yes well aware of all the macro issues regularly highlighted on front page of WSJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1568239791170375683)  2022-09-09T14:07Z 221.3K followers, [---] engagements


"1) A thread of hypotheses loosely held. This recession will be nothing like [----] when EPS for the companies in the S&P [---] tech GIC declined 80%. Tech EPS likely even more stable this time than in 08/09 when EPS declined only -3%ish. Function of shift to recurring revs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1584545935303974912)  2022-10-24T14:02Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"15) Companies that started cutting early are going to be advantaged both near-term and longer-term. Companies with weak CEOs who cut late have to cut deeper which hurts coming out. CEOs who cut costs late = investors who upgrade with the mkt down 25%ish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1584546043936788485)  2022-10-24T14:03Z 221.5K followers, [--] engagements


"2) Things are supposed to be hard. This mentality will impact most tech companies. We will start to hear lighter is faster and references to small teams being superior to large teams. A gift from God to VCs with rosters full of Summer CEOs because Winter is here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1601261884501798912)  2022-12-09T17:05Z 221.4K followers, [----] engagements


"4) Weak CEOs cut late and thereby put everyone at risk. They have to cut more because they are cutting later and the employees thereby enter a weaker job market. By trying to be compassionate they actually just hurt everyone involved. CEOs are paid to make hard decisions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1601261888201199617)  2022-12-09T17:05Z 221.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Great chart from GS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1624015376454385665)  2023-02-10T12:00Z 221.4K followers, 340.5K engagements


"1) Super interesting from Variant Perception. WARN notices lead unemployment claims by [--] weeks and they have gone vertical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1635683191821414405)  2023-03-14T16:43Z 221.4K followers, 571.7K engagements


"Interesting trade-off between being engaged in a meeting and remembering the meeting. Taking notes increases the odds you will remember per @hubermanlab but decreases ability to engage IMO. Ive mostly stopped taking notes to be more engaged. Life is all about trade-offs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1639611585965572099)  2023-03-25T12:53Z 221.4K followers, 4.2M engagements


"Right out of Chariots of Fire. Via @Camp4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1646950168749547549)  2023-04-14T18:54Z 221.4K followers, 755.1K engagements


"1) Rutger Hauer rewrote/improvised this: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain.Time to die"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1647620061744463872)  2023-04-16T15:16Z 221.4K followers, 1.6M engagements


"@elonmusk Love it that the actor in the scene Rutger Hauer effectively wrote that monologue. His rewrite was so much better than the original screenplay. The Twitter experience is starting to improve rapidly btw - now spend much more time in my For You timeline vs. Following. 1) Rutger Hauer rewrote/improvised this: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain.Time to die. https://t.co/B1TnibhE53 1) Rutger Hauer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1660738248312758272)  2023-05-22T20:03Z 221.4K followers, 1.2M engagements


"1) I have never seen anything like the current velocity of AI in 24ish years of following tech. I thought I might have been optimistic a few months ago thinking that AI generated TV shows and movies were 2-3 years away - nope - they are here now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1681719252418478089)  2023-07-19T17:34Z 221.4K followers, 1.8M engagements


"Genuine question: If the OpenAI structure is legal why shouldnt venture investors immediately adopt this Its like a 401k but better - invest pretax dollars into a nonprofit and then convert into a for profit business (with a 100x returns cap) if and when it is working"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1709243250048221248)  2023-10-03T16:25Z 221.4K followers, 351.8K engagements


"Foundation Models without significant RLHF *and* access to high quality proprietary datasets are likely the fastest depreciating assets in human history. @ericvishria I think only four are likely to have enduring value and transition into Foundation Agents over the next few years: ChatGPT Gemini Grok/Tesla/X and Llama. ChatGPT by virtue of RLHF and Microsofts various datasets plus access to closed internal data at most enterprises via CoPilot. If OpenAI ever separated from Microsoft then its value would asymptote to zero. OpenAI trying to make both a GPU competitor *and* a phone would be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720819375517716610)  2023-11-04T15:04Z 221.5K followers, 830.4K engagements


"Investment implications of the OpenAI saga based on the current fact pattern: OpenAI will slow down. It seems like the safety faction won. As they should have - the board of OpenAIs overwhelming *fiduciary* duty was to safety. It will probably take 3-9 months for the new research lab at Microsoft to approximate where OpenAI is today. Unlikely that they can flip a switch and immediately having a GPT-4 and perhaps more importantly a GPT-5 working tomorrow. @DrJimFan who is one of the most knowledgeable observers estimates [--] months for GPT-4 equivalence for the new lab. Important that the board"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1726634033164034097)  2023-11-20T16:10Z 221.4K followers, 1M engagements


"Important context based on interviews I have seen with Sam: For those [--] years Sam was essentially in every meeting and traveled almost everywhere with Elon. They were generally together 12-15ish hours per day. Elon is not anti-Semitic. In fact quite the opposite IMO. @elonmusk I spent nearly [--] years as Elons chief of staff. In that time I never observed a trace of antisemitism. Elon cares deeply about all humanity and has dedicated his life to making the future as exciting and prosperous as possible. Those who continue to claim he is antisemitic are @elonmusk I spent nearly [--] years as Elons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1727010706623779055)  2023-11-21T17:06Z 221.4K followers, 210.5K engagements


"Away from markets and technology - I thought it was awesome that Elon visited Israel today and met with families of the hostages. Some thoughts on Elon the media and Israel: Many of the same media organizations who struggle to cover the conflict in Israel accurately have rushed to condemn Elon for antisemitism. These facts are related. It is easy for many in the media to condemn a comfortable foe like Elon who often challenges the media. This condemnation helps them to feel virtuous and inoculated from charges of antisemitism while they - or the media organization for which they work - have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1729247599390302287)  2023-11-27T21:15Z 221.4K followers, 1.1M engagements


"Gemma was quite smart. Hypothesis: runs on both GPUs and TPUs but will run cheaper on TPUs. Elegant way to monetize open source. They are really starting to ship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1760296754711237119)  2024-02-21T13:33Z 221.5K followers, 143.9K engagements


"Being apolitical or centrist is becoming a significant competitive advantage for companies. Gemini is the first time GPT-4 has been surpassed yet the launch has been an unmitigated disaster and the product will likely be pulled off the market because of the ideology that was built into it. When that ideology isnt deeply racist or ahistorical it is simply absurd: microaggressions are comparable to a thermonuclear explosion in terms of harm etc. Ironic that if Google had simply followed its mission statement of organizing the worlds information to make it universally accessible and useful they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1762157019736461502)  2024-02-26T16:45Z 221.4K followers, 578.7K engagements


"Cant decide whether it is funny ridiculous or sad that the CEOs of Occidental Petroleum and Delta Airlines are on the new AI safety board. Less than half of the [--] members have any real AI knowledge. Also odd that its not even vaguely bipartisan has zero open source AI CEOs (Zuckerberg) and excludes Elon who has been the highest profile advocate for AI safety over the last [--] years. The incumbents will be lobbying hard against open source which would be terrible policy that maximizes the odds of a world with 2-3 dominant AIs which is the riskiest scenario IMO. We want a multipolar world of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1784214971749949668)  2024-04-27T13:36Z 221.4K followers, 2.2M engagements


"A different headline would be "Starlink remains the only working communication system at the frontline despite persistent efforts by the Russians to disrupt it. Other US military comms equipment such as Viasat went down in the first few hours and never recovered." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1794060504568053762)  2024-05-24T17:38Z 221.4K followers, 104.2K engagements


"My firm @atreidesmgmt will be voting in favor of reincorporating Tesla in Texas and reinstating Elon Musks performance-based compensation agreement for two reasons: First I believe Tesla stock will go up if the compensation agreement is reinstated and down if it is not. A Morgan Stanley survey of [---] institutional investors published on May [--] [----] supports this belief. Over two-thirds of these investors expect Teslas stock to rise if the compensation agreement is reinstated; four-fifths believe the stock will fall if it is not. A majority of these investors believe the stock will fall a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800206371872264701)  2024-06-10T16:40Z 221.4K followers, 616.9K engagements


"Jensen is an epically awesome CEO and person who I know is deeply admired by his team. Will still be a challenge to maintain an exceptional level of employee commitment and motivation with 37% of them having a net worth over $20m. Via @aakashgupta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1814692227345465590)  2024-07-20T16:01Z 221.4K followers, 161.6K engagements


"Strange to me that so many thought my last podcast with @patrick_oshag was super bullish as I did not intend it to be. Cautious optimism might be a better description of my current thinking and there http://x.com/i/article/1828826706909556736 http://x.com/i/article/1828826706909556736"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1828862999836102800)  2024-08-28T18:31Z 221.4K followers, 466.2K engagements


"What happened at Intel: 1) Had a long run of former CFOs as CEOs. 2) Fired the older engineers who were expensive but essential. Experience arguably matters more in semis than other areas of tech. 3) Inserted EUV one node after TSM. Ego driven decision. Tragedy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1834260837952823482)  2024-09-12T16:00Z 221.4K followers, 282K engagements


"Wild. Everyone has left OpenAI Sam is brilliant but not technical and Microsoft is furiously trying to make their own model to replace OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1839034116181995612)  2024-09-25T20:07Z 221.4K followers, 1.2M engagements


"Thanks for having me on - love the debates Also fun to discuss UFOs one of my favorite conspiracy theories at the end. @Jason and @chamath went right to the Pyramids and then @friedberg one-upped all of us. it's that time of year again. [----] PREDICTIONS are here (0:00) the besties welcome @GavinSBaker and recap ski week (5:38) biggest political winner (9:26) biggest political loser (17:34) biggest business winner (32:43) biggest business loser (46:54) biggest business https://t.co/8SYjsW4kQr it's that time of year again. [----] PREDICTIONS are here (0:00) the besties welcome @GavinSBaker and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1875660633355768007)  2025-01-04T21:48Z 221.4K followers, 487.8K engagements


"Stargate is a great name but the $500b is a ridiculous number and no one should take it seriously unless SoftBank is going to sell all of their BABA and ARM. SoftBank has $38b in cash $142b in debt and generates $3ish billion in FCF per BBG. They own $143b in ARM and $18b in BABA. If they start selling ARM their stake will be worth much less very quickly. Oracle has $11b in cash $88b in debt and generates $10b in FCF. OpenAI is burning cash. MGX did not commit to a number and is a $100b fund. Maybe 10% of the fund goes into this best case. Nvidia will limit how much they invest in any one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1882081746877063677)  2025-01-22T15:03Z 221.4K followers, 3.8M engagements


"And I say all of this as someone who is really optimistic about AI in every way. But there is reality and then there is fiction. Stargate is fiction wrapped around a much less impressive reality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1882084592351617128)  2025-01-22T15:15Z 221.4K followers, 207.6K engagements


"This video is worth watching in its entirety. Im not particularly in the details of what *they* are investing. All I know is I am good for my $80 billion. I am going to spend $80 billion building out Azure. - Satya. They are Stargate. Azure is distinct from Stargate. If this is the correct interpretation of his comments Satya and Amy are likely to clarify that they are not investing in Stargate but are allowing some of Azures technology to be used in it hence they are a technology partner not an equity partner. I think Stargate is best understood as Microsoft opting out of providing the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1882433119673868306)  2025-01-23T14:20Z 221.4K followers, 273.7K engagements


"Grok-3 is the first model *ever* to score over [----] on Chatbot Arena and outperforms the best publicly available reasoning models from OpenAI and Google. xAI was founded [--] years after Deepmind and [--] years after OpenAI and is now ahead of both. The SR-71 Blackbird of AI labs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1891721991444447343)  2025-02-18T05:30Z 221.4K followers, 6.1M engagements


"This is the first time in more than a year IIRC that one model has been #1 in every category"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1891723733976465420)  2025-02-18T05:37Z 221.5K followers, 147.4K engagements


"If this article from @theinformation is accurate then SoftBank will spend over $2 billion on OpenAI products this year; 20%ish of OpenAI revenue. $320 billion in OpenAI compute spend from 25-30. $20 billion cash burn in [----]. Unusual financial profile for an IPO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1893290112340861339)  2025-02-22T13:21Z 221.4K followers, 177.8K engagements


"On-demand H100s have gone from being available 95%ish of the time in early January before the release of Deepseek R1 to only being available 15% of the time today per this great dataset from @3F_Research"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1894820876660736355)  2025-02-26T18:44Z 221.4K followers, 248K engagements


"Oil down. Rates down. Truflation at lowest level in [--] years. Dollar down. Credit spreads stable. All in reference to the last few weeks btw. Note that every company that guided in late January/early February incorporated a strong dollar into their guidance. Weak dollar really good for large global American companies. GPU spot retail availability is down post Deepseek. GPU spot rental pricing up post Deepseek. Google raising contract GPU rental pricing. DRAM spot prices go up every day. China buying every GPU they can post Deepseek. TSM February growth accelerated YoY vs. January. GTC next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1899483093926367438)  2025-03-11T15:30Z 221.4K followers, 346K engagements


"Always fun to be on @theallinpod - there was some real debate in this episode. Might write a longer post on DOGE (absolute necessity) vs. tariffs (risky and at a minimum should be slowly phased in). And I do think Coreweave is deeply misunderstood"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905966612533948773)  2025-03-29T12:53Z 221.4K followers, 162.7K engagements


"Spoke to a lot of other fund managers this weekend. HF LO Macro. Many thought a crash was a realistic possiblity which I rarely hear. Probably the most negative on a forward looking basis I have ever heard such a broad swath of investors in the last [--] years. Quite something given tech bubble in [----] GFC in [----] Covid and [----]. Good to remember that it would only take one Truth Social post backing off tariffs (we have negotiated some good deals) and a little bit of policy stability to start the pendulum swinging the other direction. Or 4/2 being anything other than absolutely terrible. Time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1906712141094072761)  2025-03-31T14:16Z 221.4K followers, 642.9K engagements


"And if anyone has not watched the Bret Maier interview with Elon and other members of DOGE I highly recommend it. DOGE is going to have a meaningful and measurable impact on the deficit which will have a multiplicative effect if rates also come down. And regardless of politics all Americans should want them to succeed. More efficiency = more benefits for any given level of spend. My full interview with @elonmusk #SpecialReport @FoxNews https://t.co/VKBPz6igjg My full interview with @elonmusk #SpecialReport @FoxNews https://t.co/VKBPz6igjg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906785599622640017)  2025-03-31T19:08Z 221.4K followers, 77K engagements


"Almost every retailer will follow Amazon and itemize the tariff costs anywhere a price is shown - on websites price tags and receipts. Everywhere. It is not political - it is just corporations protecting their own brands and acting in their own competitive best interests. Same thing happened with minimum wage and restaurants in California. The menus showed the price increase due to the higher minimum wage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917216880752017879)  2025-04-29T13:58Z 221.4K followers, 175.5K engagements


"The benefits of trade broadly benefitted the American population via lower prices while really hurting small segments of America due to plants being closed. i.e. Americans really like it that flat screen TVs are crazy cheap. The [----] election showed that Americans also do not like it when prices go up. Tariffs will be the mirror image of this. The cost of tariffs will broadly hurt the American people via higher prices while really helping small segments of America that benefit from reshoring. If we end up with a 10% universal tariff and true reciprocal tariffs after these negotiations I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1917225917622997101)  2025-04-29T14:34Z 221.4K followers, 175.5K engagements


"AI coding agents like Cursor might add more NNARR than the entire SaaS industry (ex MSFT) in the second quarter. Should also say that I enjoyed the @FundaBottom write-up of Google which sparked this thought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1932119127398969789)  2025-06-09T16:54Z 221.5K followers, 78.8K engagements


"Insane that Apollo posted this. Their average annualized return metric shows that Private Equity and Private Credit are outperforming the S&P [---] over [--] [--] and [--] year periods. Except that average annualized return is a meaningless made up metric that has nothing to do with performance. On a compounded basis - i.e. annualized returns i.e. the metric that matters for any investor in the solar system - the S&P [---] is outperforming Private Equity and Private Credit over the last [--] years and is in-line to ahead over the last [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1938327362749284821)  2025-06-26T20:03Z 221.4K followers, 242.4K engagements


"Any journalist describing Nvidia H20 as an advanced chip is not a serious person. They are either ignorant or ideological. The H20 is circa [--] years behind the *actually* advanced B200 that Nvidia sells to America and our allies. The B200 has 30x more compute 2x the memory bandwidth and 2x the memory of the H20 that is sold in China. Arguably 100x more usable compute. Selling H20s to China is good policy as they are slightly (1.25x) better than domestic Chinese AI accelerators. Selling the H20 thus effectively slows down the development of a robust domestic Chinese AI accelerator ecosystem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1955289325962203229)  2025-08-12T15:24Z 221.4K followers, 135.7K engagements


"Googles dominance of the Pareto frontier for AI has been shattered. And actually wild that Grok [--] Fast *also* has a 2m token context window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1969720791441817981)  2025-09-21T11:10Z 221.4K followers, 157.1K engagements


"Federal budget deficit is improving. Important and underreported"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979978059118739780)  2025-10-19T18:28Z 221.4K followers, 126.5K engagements


"I am writing this post at the request of @Brycee1der who wrote the erroneous @ft article titled What GPU pricing can tell us about how the AI bubble will pop. Bryce writes: Can a GPU-as-a-service company break even on that type of customer Heres a very simplified toy model. One entry-level Nvidia DGX A100 cluster of eight chips cost $199000on its release in [----]. Based on a chips approximately five-year useful life and [---] per cent uptime it would need to be generating about $4 an hour to break even. The conclusion in this paragraph is the one that is quantitatively wrong. The word "it" in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1980691878262501673)  2025-10-21T17:45Z 221.4K followers, 245.4K engagements


"I profoundly believe this to be true. Elon (Musk) has done more for the planet and de-carbonizing it than all the activists and Greta Thunbergs." "Global Warming is a solved problem.only through economics" -- @GavinSBaker Full episode below https://t.co/XnrsiUq2dq Elon (Musk) has done more for the planet and de-carbonizing it than all the activists and Greta Thunbergs." "Global Warming is a solved problem.only through economics" -- @GavinSBaker Full episode below https://t.co/XnrsiUq2dq"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1983532138516697119)  2025-10-29T13:51Z 221.4K followers, 90.2K engagements


"Really fun to do this fireside chat with my good friend @DavidGeorge83 who has an exceptional track record. Dark fiber during the telecom bubble vs. melting GPUs today. Grateful to David and the @a16z team for inviting me. https://youtu.be/5ze3ZNvOdRYsi=nfZBJaqZNbDaocde https://youtu.be/5ze3ZNvOdRYsi=nfZBJaqZNbDaocde"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1984235016923079107)  2025-10-31T12:24Z 221.5K followers, 125.7K engagements


"Now this is a true banger. softbank is selling its nvidia stake to fund companies whose main expense is buying from nvidia https://t.co/DGzhjPg2FJ softbank is selling its nvidia stake to fund companies whose main expense is buying from nvidia https://t.co/DGzhjPg2FJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1988363252104085512)  2025-11-11T21:48Z 221.4K followers, 624.9K engagements


"😂 @mustafasuleyman Are you sure youre doing it right @mustafasuleyman Are you sure youre doing it right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1990136081375973544)  2025-11-16T19:13Z 221.4K followers, 354.4K engagements


"Would be awesome for the country if he ran. One of the [--] most impressive CEOs I have ever met. Something that made me really like him as a person: Maybe [--] years ago I was eating at Scalinatella in NYC (great old school Italian place in a stone basement). Jamie Dimon sits down at the table next to us. He waits by himself for more than an hour. Super happy and relaxed the entire time. Really nice to the waiters. Never looks at his phone or his watch. Orders wine but waits to drink even a glass. I am wondering who on this planet would keep Jamie Dimon waiting for an hour Then a young woman and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998069690506059839)  2025-12-08T16:38Z 221.5K followers, 360.8K engagements


"Incredible thread. So after all these hours talking about AI in these last five minutes I am going to talk about: Horses. Engines steam engines were invented in [----]. And what followed was [---] years of steady improvement with engines getting 20% better a decade. For the first [---] years of https://t.co/3nHcA14qST So after all these hours talking about AI in these last five minutes I am going to talk about: Horses. Engines steam engines were invented in [----]. And what followed was [---] years of steady improvement with engines getting 20% better a decade. For the first [---] years of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1998101509322727451)  2025-12-08T18:44Z 221.5K followers, 282.8K engagements


"@vikramskr @insane_analyst @grok 😀 Optics maybe the single most misunderstood part of the datacenter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2008579210508726467)  2026-01-06T16:39Z 221.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) Investor fear and the absence - temporary or permanent - of the Vision Fund likely creates more attractive late stage opportunities vs. the last [--] years. Market is semi-frozen deals are breaking converts are taking a long time and there are good companies that need funding. Uber Grubhub and other start-ups will have to boost prices as more investors demand profitability https://t.co/2dSr90BQi7 Uber Grubhub and other start-ups will have to boost prices as more investors demand profitability https://t.co/2dSr90BQi7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1213872411147481090)  2020-01-05T17:18Z 221.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Strange to think that [----] valuations for many late stage startups - ex SaaS - are reasonably dependent upon the stock prices of ride sharing cos whose business models have little to do with many of the startups who will need to raise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1227635610778648576)  2020-02-12T16:48Z 221.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Strange that so many say SPACs are more expensive than an IPO. As long as the PIPE is at least 2x larger than the SPAC then this is a cheaper way to go public than a traditional IPO. So much focus on SPACs when the PIPEs are what really matter to everyone involved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1366771336656400384)  2021-03-02T15:24Z 221.5K followers, [---] engagements

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