# ![@GarpandChill Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1982112330948505600.png) @GarpandChill Garp&Chill

Garp&Chill posts on X about $toiv, ai, $csuto, $meli the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1982112330948505600/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1982112330948505600/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +75%
- [--] Month [------] -86%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1982112330948505600/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1982112330948505600/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -47%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1982112330948505600/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1982112330948505600/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +15%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1982112330948505600/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1982112330948505600/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [gaming](/list/gaming)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 

**Social topic influence**
[$toiv](/topic/$toiv) #10, [ai](/topic/ai), [$csuto](/topic/$csuto), [$meli](/topic/$meli), [constellation](/topic/constellation), [$nu](/topic/$nu), [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow), [$lmnv](/topic/$lmnv) #5, [$csu](/topic/$csu) #48, [$evo](/topic/$evo)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@capexandchill](/creator/undefined) [@latticeinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@pabloblancop](/creator/undefined) [@simeonresearch](/creator/undefined) [@daveyjuice](/creator/undefined) [@matheussilvae](/creator/undefined) [@notmarkleonard](/creator/undefined) [@mindset4moneyx](/creator/undefined) [@khalidinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@lnathell](/creator/undefined) [@stonkinvesto4](/creator/undefined) [@fromvalue](/creator/undefined) [@jpmontero88](/creator/undefined) [@lilsnipes23](/creator/undefined) [@daypriest](/creator/undefined) [@javierbsi](/creator/undefined) [@kelvinsbh5](/creator/undefined) [@bkaellner](/creator/undefined) [@johanneskillman](/creator/undefined) [@jomasilva88](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [NuCypher (NU)](/topic/$nu) [Evotec SE (EVO)](/topic/$evo) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Sea Limited (SE)](/topic/$se) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Kaspi.kz Joint Stock Company (KSPI)](/topic/$kspi) [QXO, Inc. Common Stock (QXO)](/topic/$qxo) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Roko (ROKO)](/topic/$roko) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [DNP Select Income Fund Inc. (DNP)](/topic/$dnp) [AutoNation, Inc. (AN)](/topic/$an)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"2 The good ✅ Still a cash-generating machine with [--] % EBIT margin right within target. Margins are solid but this is a revenue-growth story. North America still growing double-digits YoY. Imagine the upside if FX turns tailwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982139864934912475)  2025-10-25T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"3 Valuation remains cheap (11 P/E) despite elite profitability and global dominance in live casino. The short-report saga: Playtech was confirmed behind the [----] Black Cube smear. That could finally ease the sentiment drag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982139919481942450)  2025-10-25T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"4 Why it matters 👇 [--] Clears Evolutions name. [--] May push clients away from Playtechs unethical tactics. [--] Symbolic win even if compensation is minor. Together these could start lifting the cloud over $EVO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982139993838534861)  2025-10-25T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"11 EVO remains a cash cow but with bruised trust. No-growth scenario = modest yield from buybacks plus dividends. Real returns need growth plus multiple re-rating. USA remains the biggest opportunity ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982140767515603380)  2025-10-25T17:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC @ShawzieInvest @Nybergarenn After cutting off the stolen streams and thereby also the good revenue that served as collateral would you expect those users to eventually find their way back to $EVO games through another channel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982191389799514524)  2025-10-25T21:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thanks for your insights Ali. What frustrated me most as an $EVO.ST shareholder was the tone of the call. Celebrating a 1% QoQ reacceleration in Europe while YoY remains negative felt misplaced. And calling RNG an outperformer when live casino contracted isnt exactly clarity. Not selling but not impressed. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982422066264412294)  2025-10-26T12:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/ Shopee ($SE) just overtook MercadoLibre ($MELI) in order volume across Brazil The battle for Latin Americas e-commerce crown is on Is MELIs moat cracking or proving unbreakable $MELI is my second largest position (16%) Heres my take 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982460227707429056)  2025-10-26T14:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"7/ This isnt just e-commerce. Its a compounding ecosystem across commerce logistics payments and credit Competitors will struggle to keep up with that flywheel The question isnt who offers free shipping Its who can survive giving it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982461368457433134)  2025-10-26T14:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ Bonus insight most investors overlook: advertising $MELIs ad business is quietly becoming a profit engine. Its insanely high-margin still early in its ramp-up and will steadily lift group margins over time Its the hidden catalyst few are modeling yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982461426691113399)  2025-10-26T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@hollertotide @ChristopheNour Thanks for the reply and link to video. Any idea what the destination of your cash pile will be G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982504965907292670)  2025-10-26T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$EVO resumed its buybacks on Friday after Q3 results the one thing management keeps getting right. When done through cycles and sustained over time buybacks can quietly create massive compounding. Just look at $AN AutoNation (2017 to 2024) an unglamorous low-growth business of car dealerships: Revenue +3.3 % CAGR Net income +6.9 % CAGR Share count [----] % CAGR EPS +20.0 % CAGR Total return since 2017: $AN +312 % vs S&P [---] +206 %. A significant outperformance. $AN trades around [--] P/E. Mohnish Pabrai recently bought in he knows the power of a true share cannibal. Request to $EVO management:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1982811741055517000)  2025-10-27T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jpmontero88 $MELI is definitely a winner. Happy shareholder. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983204810036826595)  2025-10-28T16:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7 Other recent orders include: $100 m+ AI servers in the US (deliveries JulyAug): no capital increase envisaged at this stage. USD $54 m AI servers for the UK (progressive deliveries from Aug 2025). [--] m AI servers for Malaysia (full delivery by end-2025)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983208036513493289)  2025-10-28T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"8 Each project uses the same formula: NVIDIA GPUs InfiniBand interconnects immersion cooling and in-house design. These contracts show 2CRSi can win on performance and trust not just price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983208103827952048)  2025-10-28T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity Thanks for sharing. Great list. Id add $MELI and $NU if youre open to some LatAm risk exposure. Curious whats your highest-conviction name right now G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983273881076150728)  2025-10-28T20:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ggInvest360 What percentage of your portfolio is 2CRSi G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983278453140181367)  2025-10-28T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Tintincapital Current state of the markets. Throw a dart and hope for a Nvidia / OpenAI deal. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983282304777601383)  2025-10-28T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Waiting for the #2CRSi earnings release. 🧵1 Let me tell you about an AI play that does not trade for over [---] PE. Founder-led high-growth under-the-radar AI play. Reports earnings this Thursday (Oct 30) after market close. Trades at under [--] 25/26 EV/EBITDA on guidance. Small cap. Large uncertainty. Even larger 🧵1 Let me tell you about an AI play that does not trade for over [---] PE. Founder-led high-growth under-the-radar AI play. Reports earnings this Thursday (Oct 30) after market close. Trades at under [--] 25/26 EV/EBITDA on guidance. Small cap. Large uncertainty. Even larger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983286351236886737)  2025-10-28T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jpmontero88 Gap up. Excited for the earnings call.' G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983288393808462293)  2025-10-28T21:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My mother (70+ retired) just told me she bought $BTC and $PLTR. Top signal G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983331672511934930)  2025-10-29T00:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@teechongyen A good sign increasing ROIC. What caused the 24% drop YTD Looks cheap. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983515406527611074)  2025-10-29T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@readswithravi Telling myself $EVO is like this. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983537215340003810)  2025-10-29T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Into $MELI earnings Im watching [--] levers: [--] GMV growth (20 % = healthy demand) [--] TPV & MAUs (fintech flywheel) [--] Ad revenue (margin booster) [--] Operating margin (pricing-war impact) The balance between growth & margin discipline tells the story tonight. G&C 1/ Shopee ($SE) just overtook MercadoLibre ($MELI) in order volume across Brazil The battle for Latin Americas e-commerce crown is on Is MELIs moat cracking or proving unbreakable $MELI is my second largest position (16%) Heres my take 👇 1/ Shopee ($SE) just overtook MercadoLibre ($MELI) in order volume across Brazil The battle for Latin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983537627375526311)  2025-10-29T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Tough day for Serial Acquirers. $TOI.V: -7.3% Constellation Software $CSU.TO: -4.5% Lumine Group $LMN.V: -2.3% No news. G&C http://Topicus.com http://Topicus.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983549745017901367)  2025-10-29T15:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The bloodbath continues. $TOI.V: -8.4% Constellation Software $CSU.TO: -6.1% Lumine Group $LMN.V: -4.4% G&C http://Topicus.com http://Topicus.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983602946312130611)  2025-10-29T18:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@habib_a_qureshi Thanks Habib Are you referring to Azure being down Not sure that alone justifies a 10% drop in Topicuss market cap. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983624320317583815)  2025-10-29T19:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$MELI Q3 results are in: [--] GMV +28 % YoY growth reaccelerated despite Brazils price war [--] TPV & MAUs $71.2 bn (+41 %) & [--] mn users (+29 %) [--] Ad revenue +56 % YoY now the fastest-growing line [--] Operating margin [---] % down from [----] % but better than feared Growth + discipline = intact moat. Still one of LATAMs best-run platforms. Looking ahead: The best is yet to come. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983628983817458146)  2025-10-29T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$MELI Q3: Ads do not disappoint. Dont tell me I didnt warn you. Ad revenue +56 % YoY G&C 8/ Bonus insight most investors overlook: advertising $MELIs ad business is quietly becoming a profit engine. Its insanely high-margin still early in its ramp-up and will steadily lift group margins over time Its the hidden catalyst few are modeling yet 8/ Bonus insight most investors overlook: advertising $MELIs ad business is quietly becoming a profit engine. Its insanely high-margin still early in its ramp-up and will steadily lift group margins over time Its the hidden catalyst few are modeling yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983649856884515111)  2025-10-29T21:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheShortBear $MELI What a beast. Fits Nick Sleeps criteria for sure. Bet the house G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983862174515683432)  2025-10-30T11:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$MELI back to green. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1983892519751450764)  2025-10-30T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ConsensusGurus Love comparing $WMT valuation with $AMZN. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984236577149825265)  2025-10-31T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Trader_Keith Which one is your favorite at these levels G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984237430875316478)  2025-10-31T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lilsnipes23 Agreed. Expecting good earnings for all three. Remember when ChatGPT destroyed search by $GOOGL Me neither. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984238001321648570)  2025-10-31T12:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"keeps compounding quietly. Self-funded growth. No dilution. But has the compounding come to a halt Are the AI fears overblown or is the threat real Well find out Tuesday November [--] [----] after market close. $TOI.V $TOITF G&C http://Topicus.com http://Topicus.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984253091034828962)  2025-10-31T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Full discl. 2CRSi has become a case of overpromising. Closed position. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984289291846213919)  2025-10-31T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 Numbers that matter Q2 revenue up [--] % year on year the highest since FY23. This does not include Topicuss Asseco stake. Then growth would be in the [--] to [--] % range. A three year high driven by both organic and acquired growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984296075151241540)  2025-10-31T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5 The pecking order 🟩 $CSU.TO global mothership size limits speed 🟦 $LMN.TO focused on communications software 🟨 $TOI.V European VMS leader smaller deals higher ROIIC Topicus is the best mix of scale and runway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984296184173715633)  2025-10-31T16:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"6 Culture and incentives Same owner mindset as Constellation $CSU.TO. No central bureaucracy. Capital allocation discipline and skin in the game drive durable compounding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984296335743259036)  2025-10-31T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7 AI headwind or tailwind AI could pressure generic software vendors by automating workflows and compressing pricing. But vertical market software like Topicus benefits when AI is embedded into niche solutions raising efficiency customer stickiness and value per user. More tailwind than threat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984296500441059577)  2025-10-31T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9 The story Topicus doesnt chase headlines. It quietly deploys capital builds moats and compounds value. While others debate disruption Topicus compounds through it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984296770709409816)  2025-10-31T16:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1 [--] TLDR Constellation wrote the script. Topicus is performing it in Europe with more agility and a much longer runway to grow. Initiated a position around [--] %. Earnings on Tuesday will tell if I made the right choice. $TOI.V $CSU.TO $LMN.TO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984297516955771111)  2025-10-31T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lilsnipes23 @SteveWps Sounds good. Do you have a write-up for $BN you can share G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984679535195848813)  2025-11-01T17:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@davey_juice Looking back these fears seem totally unwarranted as always. $MELI keeps dominating. Long. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984681276050194559)  2025-11-01T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is exactly why Im convinced the price war in Brazil between $SE $AMZN and $MELI ultimately favors the latter. $MELI has the deepest logistics footprint and scale so lowering the free-shipping threshold can still be profitable. For $SE and especially $AMZN this move burns cash instead of driving leverage. Scale wins. $MELI has it. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984757185268654507)  2025-11-01T22:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BrianFeroldi Would you recommend someone of age [--] to invest 10% of his portfolio in bonds or cash That seems unnecessary. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984778074185933234)  2025-11-02T00:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zarieinvests Curious what are the key things youre watching this earnings call G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984949540005257449)  2025-11-02T11:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"📅 Earnings week (Nov [--] 2025) Watching: Mon: $PLTR $HIMS Tue: $UBER $SHOP $SPOT $AMD $TOI.V Wed: $MCD $ARM $QCOM Thu: $ABNB $TDD $LLY $DKNG $DNP.WA $WISE.L Fri: $NCLH $DHI What are you watching G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984950168442016211)  2025-11-02T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1 $KSPI The fintech super app that seems to tick every box ✅ Best in class metrics ✅ Huge insider ownership ✅ Consistent earnings growth ✅ Cheap on almost any metric Yet the market is not buying it Lets unpack why 🧵 http://Kaspi.kz http://Kaspi.kz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984971768134799754)  2025-11-02T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2 The Business Kaspi is essentially the WeChat of Kazakhstan A one stop platform for payments shopping and banking Three ecosystems feed each other Kaspi Payments (payments infrastructure) Kaspi Marketplace Kaspi Fintech (consumer and merchant lending) A rare closed loop fintech model that is both sticky and profitable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984972078412390824)  2025-11-02T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 The Numbers had net income growth in the [--] to [--] percent range in recent years Management now guides for about [--] percent net income growth in [----] ROE remains above [--] percent and cash conversion close to [---] percent Still strong but no longer effortless Dividend payouts have been reduced as cash is redirected toward the $HEPS HepsiBurada acquisition in Turkey Short term drag long term optionality http://Kaspi.kz http://Kaspi.kz http://Kaspi.kz http://Kaspi.kz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984972574699270281)  2025-11-02T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5 The Appeal More than half of Kazakhstans population uses Kaspi NPS above [--] Rare profitability in emerging market fintech Single digit P E for a platform compounding at double digits On paper it looks absurdly cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984972859731489145)  2025-11-02T13:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"6 The Skeptics Lens But here is the question that matters The Kazakh [--] year government bond yields about [--] percent That yield reflects expected inflation a real risk free return sovereign and currency risk premium and other risk term and liquidity factors If Kaspis earnings grow below that [--] percent in KZT why take equity risk at all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984972940253741509)  2025-11-02T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7 The Trade Off Equities should offer real returns above bonds but in emerging markets that margin of safety narrows fast When inflation and FX volatility spike even [--] percent KZT growth can translate to flat USD returns At that point cheap can stay cheap Kaspis quality is undeniable but the currency math is brutal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984973019970760824)  2025-11-02T13:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"8 The Path Forward Kaspi is still executing well Expanding regionally into Turkey Dominating its home market Printing cash with little competition But investors will need confidence that 1) KZT stabilizes 2) Growth reaccelerates above inflation 3) Turkey turns from cost center to growth engine Until then the [--] percent bond sets a high bar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984973178255384779)  2025-11-02T13:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9 My Take Kaspi remains one of the best run fintechs globally but the macro discount may be justified for now If management can sustain more than [--] percent earnings growth in KZT and maintain margins the equity will eventually outrun the bond yield but it is not as automatic as it once was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984973258630799555)  2025-11-02T13:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10 In Short Kaspi is a paradox Quality of a Western compounder Valuation of a frontier market Execution that is proven Macro that is less so For long term investors it is a test of conviction Are you betting on Kaspi the business or Kazakhstan the currency G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984973376180355267)  2025-11-02T13:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks Matheus. Kaspi seems to do everything right but the macro keeps fighting it. Youre spot on. Higher rates compress fintech margins and the smartphone import tax change explains much of the marketplace slowdown. Once those normalize 20% plus growth looks achievable again. Curious how you see the $HEPS story playing out. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984980621668598074)  2025-11-02T13:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@matheussilvae Thats a fair point. Paying up for a turnaround is always tricky especially when market share is still slipping. But if they can apply even part of their Kazakhstan playbook in Turkey logistics payments and ecosystem cross-sell the upside could indeed be massive. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984983502719258875)  2025-11-02T13:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@matheussilvae Thats a great point. A 14% dividend yield would completely change the risk-reward profile especially if it closes the gap with the local bond yield. Thanks for sharing your views. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984984691972448654)  2025-11-02T14:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Excellent context thanks. Did not know that. A 20% import levy directly hits Shopees cross-border advantage. Shifting volume toward MELIs local ecosystem. Definitely bearish for $SEs Brazil unit. Slightly off-topic: Curious how you see the $NU vs $MELI competition evolving in Brazil Own both at this stage. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984990360532074656)  2025-11-02T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@matheussilvae Thanks for the insight. Will have a look at $INTR. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1984998077783265717)  2025-11-02T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Dont sleep on a $10B fintech compounding at 20%+ in an emerging market and trading at 8x earnings. G&C [--] https://t.co/W6NBzBpGcm $KSPI The fintech super app that seems to tick every box ✅ Best in class metrics ✅ Huge insider ownership ✅ Consistent earnings growth ✅ Cheap on almost any metric Yet the market is not buying it Lets unpack why 🧵 https://t.co/UYqMZvqHqC [--] https://t.co/W6NBzBpGcm $KSPI The fintech super app that seems to tick every box ✅ Best in class metrics ✅ Huge insider ownership ✅ Consistent earnings growth ✅ Cheap on almost any metric Yet the market is not buying it Lets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985026738309730443)  2025-11-02T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@moninvestor You were at $100000 long ago as you are denominated in GBP. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985345677807788167)  2025-11-03T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HLaaws How large is $NU in your portfolio G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985346542648348676)  2025-11-03T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@heychar_x USD/BRL may even work in $NU's favour. Expect even larger rev growth coming year. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985346745266577785)  2025-11-03T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FedexSTi @MatiasRafael7 P/E has its use cases but there are better metrics for high growth companies like $MELI $AMZN or $NU. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347195470811315)  2025-11-03T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2 Its a digital bank from Latin America scaling faster than almost any in the world. Over [---] million users all onboarded digitally no branches. Customer love not marketing spend drives the flywheel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347321387790573)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3 Its Nubank $NU. Every new user makes it stronger and cheaper to run. Cost to serve $0.8 per month (-3 % YoY FXN) ARPAC $12.2 (+18 % YoY FXN) Word of mouth near-zero CAC. David Vlez CEO 🎥 Interview (Norges Bank Investment Management) https://www.youtube.com/watchv=npVZsYaoJs0 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=npVZsYaoJs0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347323065471138)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 ARPAC keeps climbing yet is still of traditional banks. If $NU reaches even [--] % of legacy ARPAC revenue per user roughly doubles with minimal added cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347324936171611)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5 Revenues and profits are exploding. 📈 Revenue $3.7B 💜 Net income $637M All from just three countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347327230407057)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 In Mexico digital banks are eating incumbents alive. $NU now rivals BBVA among top-used financial apps. Old empires are crumbling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347329365323829)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7 Credit remains resilient. [--] + DPD [---] % with [---] % coverage on NPL90 +. Underwriting hype"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347331630276925)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8 Next growth legs: and . Insane Customer and Deposits growth. 👇 These markets are larger and less penetrated than Brazil when NU began"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347333970620453)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"9 [--] forward P/E with 30+ % EPS growth. Net income +42 % YoY FXN. And now the BRL is strengthening vs USD (-8.6 % YoY). Imagine what USD-denominated growth will look like this year 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347336084525058)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"🔟 Old banks lent money. New banks build networks. Buffett saw it early then sold. The compounding continued. $NU is turning banking into software and is now testing a US beachhead for LatAm expats. $NU $MELI $PAGS G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985347338542682301)  2025-11-03T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@dividendology $MELI sub [----] $TOI.V sub 140"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985355577803841564)  2025-11-03T14:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@NotMarkLeonard Whats your take on the results G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985680321208086974)  2025-11-04T12:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Muzzlebuster $TEA.AX feels like an early stage Mader Group. Founder led high quality services disciplined execution and a repeatable expansion model. Very similar culture and capital discipline in my view just earlier in the maturity curve. The best is yet to come. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985683558393135171)  2025-11-04T12:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Holding since [----]. Every quarter we hear Asia is almost fixed yet the issues persist. The tone shift from Q2s cautiously optimistic to Q3s still need to fix it really hurt credibility for me. Hard to stay confident when execution keeps slipping. Add a bad acquisition in there and I think there are just companies with better management out there. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985686465196568690)  2025-11-04T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StockMKTNewz You get an OpenAI deal. You get an OpenAI deal. You get an OpenAI deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985687004714037470)  2025-11-04T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@duke_pearson @ISharunosuke Nu is such a beautiful company. Next year we may have a triple whammy: [--]. Customer growth. [--]. ARPAC increase for existing customers. [--]. BRL strengthening against USD will result in insane USD-denominated growth. Just my 2c. But good to hear the charts align as well. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985689278706233670)  2025-11-04T12:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@noseveiavenir @alexesca10 What are your thoughts on $NU G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985690788710531446)  2025-11-04T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RedshirtInsight I only read that youve been an investor in CSU for one and a half decades. What a chad. Congrats. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985694019221962771)  2025-11-04T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1 Warren Buffett once invested here then sold missing a [--] % gain this year. This company has grown revenue [--] % CAGR and net income [--] % CAGR yet trades around [--] forward earnings. $NU Something doesnt add up. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699765762265482)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, 17.1K engagements


"2 Its Nubank a digital bank from Latin America scaling faster than almost any in the world. Over [---] million users all onboarded digitally no branches near-zero Customer Acquisition Cost. Word-of-mouth near-zero CAC David Vlez CEO 🎥 Interview (Norges Bank Investment Management)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699769323282651)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3 ARPAC keeps climbing yet is still of traditional banks. If $NU gets to even 50% of legacy ARPAC revenue per user roughly doubles with minimal added cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699771378778465)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 Revenues and profits are exploding. 📈 Revenue $3.7B FXN 💜 Net income $637M All from just three countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699774230905288)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5 In Mexico digital banks are eating incumbents alive. NU now rivals BBVA and Mercado Pago among top-used financial apps. Old empires are crumbling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699777124708585)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"6 Credit remains resilient. 90+ DPD 6.6% with 230% coverage on NPL90+. Underwriting hype"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699779649699954)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7 Next growth legs: and . Insane customer and deposits growth in these countries. These markets are larger and less penetrated than Brazil when NU began"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699781960954188)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"8 [--] forward P/E with [--] % EPS growth. Net income +42 % YoY FXN. And now the BRL is strengthening vs USD (-8.6 % YoY). Imagine what USD-denominated growth will look like this year 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699784624075072)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9 Explosive growth in coming [--] months due to three drivers: 1) New customers 2) Higher ARPAC for existing customers 3) FX-tailwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699787316887920)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"🔟 Old banks lent money. New banks build networks. Buffett saw it early then sold. The compounding continued. $NU is turning banking into software and is now testing a US beachhead for LatAm expats. $NU $MELI $PAGS G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985699789502374107)  2025-11-04T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Hey FinTwit Brazil Just shared a deep dive on $NU (Nubank). The growth story is incredible. 120M users 30%+ ROE still valued near [--] forward earnings. Would love to hear local insights 👇 G&C [--] Warren Buffett once invested here then sold missing a [--] % gain this year. This company has grown revenue [--] % CAGR and net income [--] % CAGR yet trades around [--] forward earnings. $NU Something doesnt add up. 🧵 https://t.co/dygi9KLh79 [--] Warren Buffett once invested here then sold missing a [--] % gain this year. This company has grown revenue [--] % CAGR and net income [--] % CAGR yet trades around 20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985833709686190345)  2025-11-04T22:17Z [---] followers, 13.4K engagements


"1 ($TOI.V) Q3 [----] revenue rose +24% YoY to 387.9m with 3% organic growth. FCFA2S hit 22.3m (+114% YoY) now 167.5m YTD (+19%). Cash conversion remains stellar even as Topicus books a one-off 221.7m Asseco charge distorting net income. Whats more important can be seen in the next graphic 👇 http://Topicus.com http://Topicus.com [--] https://t.co/eR3bcfk26l ($TOI.V) The quiet compounding engine of the Constellation family. Born in Europe built for longevity. Same DNA as $CSU.TO but with more organic growth and a longer runway. 🧵 https://t.co/74b1Pu9qUr http://Topicus.com http://Topicus.com 1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985838227077337116)  2025-11-04T22:35Z [---] followers, 15.9K engagements


"2 Deployed capital Now the Asseco-deployed cash really shows in the books. Behind the accounting noise Topicus is compounding steadily and reinvesting boldly. Deploying 663m this year its largest spend since listing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1985838229547815242)  2025-11-04T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Revisiting Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) on how to value serial acquirers like Constellation Topicus and Lumine. 🧠 Think in decades not quarters 💸 High ROIC + consistent reinvestment = compounding engine 📈 [----] percent CAGR = 69x earnings in [--] years Timing matters less than owning quality early If its a real compounder whether you pay 32x or 36x wont matter. Given sentiment and recent volatility I think now is an attractive time to study and potentially accumulate these compounders. $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V [--] https://t.co/eR3bcfk26l ($TOI.V) Q3 [----] revenue rose +24% YoY to 387.9m with 3%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986058124885622976)  2025-11-05T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DayPriest Do you like Lumine over Topicus or Constellation here G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986096364585979999)  2025-11-05T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2. Scale economies shared Most companies scale to take more margin. The rare great ones scale to deepen loyalty. Sleep called it scale economies shared. The simple reality is that sharing scale economies with customers creates exceptionally durable competitive advantage. Amazon $AMZN and Costco $COST mastered this. Every efficiency dollar goes back to customers and the flywheel strengthens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986159741962264643)  2025-11-05T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3. The biggest error is selling too early Sleep wrote one of the most important lines in investing: The biggest error an investor can make is the sale of a Wal-Mart or a Microsoft in the early stages of the companys growth. Mathematically this error is far greater than the equivalent sum invested in a firm that goes bankrupt. A 100-bagger sold too early hurts more than a 100% loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986159746458808529)  2025-11-05T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What Sleep ultimately did After years studying compounding excellence Sleep returned capital to investors. He told partners they could simply own: Amazon Costco Berkshire Hathaway Different models. Same destination: Long term thinking customer obsession continuous reinvestment. Conviction earns compounding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986159750099157280)  2025-11-05T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Scale Economies Shared still applies to $COST and $AMZN. Just in a more mature phase. You also see SES dynamics in $MELI $WISE.L and $RYA.IR. For compounders and serial acquirers the Constellation family comes to mind: $CSU.TO $TOI.V and $LMN.V. Industrial acquirers like $TVK.TO and $TEA.AX also fit. Just a few names. There are many more. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986164518238527872)  2025-11-05T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zeroxpectation Agree. Appreciate your insights. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986165006774215028)  2025-11-05T20:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thanks @Clay_Finck for hosting this great interview. Episode is called Long-Term Compounding w/ Chris Mayer Constellation Software Topicus & Lumine (TIP608) by We Study Billionaires"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986204665197773184)  2025-11-05T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@earnings_guy -13% AH. Are these beats and hefty drops are the new normal now G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986425781774373134)  2025-11-06T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Topicus $TOI.V down since earnings despite great results. Today another -6% FCFA2S up 20% YTD excluding the Asseco stake which adds roughly another 10% discount to market cap. Capital deployment reached record levels this year and the growth engine is firing on all cylinders. Seems broader with Lumine $LMN.V and Constellation $CSU.TO also red today. Im adding. This high-quality compounder now makes up 17% of my portfolio. [--] https://t.co/eR3bcfk26l ($TOI.V) Q3 [----] revenue rose +24% YoY to 387.9m with 3% organic growth. FCFA2S hit 22.3m (+114% YoY) now 167.5m YTD (+19%). Cash conversion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986490780983435369)  2025-11-06T17:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FundasyInvestor Wow thats some serious conviction then. Always fascinating to see how people size positions and use margin around ER season. Appreciate the transparency. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986502535163638090)  2025-11-06T18:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@QualityGrowth_ Feels like that is already decided for $CSU.TO at this stage. Curious for results. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986537496721957142)  2025-11-06T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2 The good Acceleration in store growth +98 stores in Q3 [--] [---] total (+14 % y/y) On track for [---] openings in [----] (20 % growth) Self-funded rollout keeps lifting scale and efficiency at spectacular ROIC numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986900327904186577)  2025-11-07T20:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 Peers abka +4.5 % LFL Biedronka +3.6 % LFL Dino still ahead but slower than its own [--] % past pace Is the gap closing Store rollout now the main driver of top-line growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1986900334237962443)  2025-11-07T20:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1 $CSU.TO $CSU is down 35% from peak and just reported earnings. Q3 once again shows why Constellation is in a league of its own. Revenue +16 % Operating CF +33 % FCFA2S +46 % to $529 M 👀 Recurring revenue = [--] % of total The best compounder at a discount. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987182273687392467)  2025-11-08T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"3 Deployment machine Q3 acquisitions: $634 M Already $450 M+ spent in the first weeks of Q4 Cash balance: $2.8 B Plenty of dry powder for the next wave of vertical-market tuck-ins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987182280297639985)  2025-11-08T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4 The long game [--] + years of compounding any single quarter. Valuation now below long-term averages (27 FCFA2S vs [--] 10-yr avg). Execution still elite. Bear market cancelled. $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987182282768032010)  2025-11-08T15:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@InvestingVisual Agree the numbers look strong but FCF without context on SBC can paint the wrong picture for $DUOL. The gap between the two still matters a lot. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987503251596456032)  2025-11-09T12:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@joeorsi @Mindset4Money_X Agreed. Will post a graph on this later today. This is a common misunderstood factor of $DUOL. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987504451330904464)  2025-11-09T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mindset4Money_X Worth noting: before FY23 SBC FCF at $DUOL. So applying a simple FCF yield rule during its earlier hyper-growth phase doesnt really work. The cash story only turned in the last couple of years. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987505078886896071)  2025-11-09T12:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@nikoliasgoninus Not sure Munger was talking about stocks like $DUOL when referencing quality companies but I like your conviction. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987506042167529842)  2025-11-09T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Purpleskurp @TheRealBirnbaum Honest question. How does Duolingo use ChatGPT exactly For creating content G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987506869787640088)  2025-11-09T13:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@javier_bsi Whats your take Fair punishment or overreaction G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987512517673849055)  2025-11-09T13:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Duolingos on a hot streak. 🔥 Free cash flow now crushes stock-based comp. $DUOL 🦜 G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987516776054231149)  2025-11-09T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@1treetree7 @clippedtoby @danielisdizzy Feels like $BKNG in early days. Continuously performing experiments on customers to increase engagement. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987516925715354001)  2025-11-09T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@javier_bsi Totally. Fundamentals held up but the price didnt. When sentiment flips on a high-expectation name mean reversion hits fast. Time will tell whether this flush was enough or more pain is ahead. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987520551561077122)  2025-11-09T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I wonder how $CSU.TO opens tomorrow. 👀 [--] $CSU.TO $CSU is down 35% from peak and just reported earnings. Q3 once again shows why Constellation is in a league of its own. Revenue +16 % Operating CF +33 % FCFA2S +46 % to $529 M 👀 Recurring revenue = [--] % of total The best compounder at a discount. 🧵 https://t.co/EAo51vlq6j [--] $CSU.TO $CSU is down 35% from peak and just reported earnings. Q3 once again shows why Constellation is in a league of its own. Revenue +16 % Operating CF +33 % FCFA2S +46 % to $529 M 👀 Recurring revenue = [--] % of total The best compounder at a discount. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987622878561353985)  2025-11-09T20:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lfg_cap $Bidu dip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987623497796034867)  2025-11-09T20:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1 Down 68% from its peak. Novo Nordisk is down 68% since its peak. $NVO But the business didnt collapse. Expectations did. Heres why the stock dropped and why the story isnt broken 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636021857849566)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2 Growth has slowed not disappeared. 9M [----] sales +15% at constant FX Operating profit +10% Obesity care +41% GLP1 diabetes +10% Insulin flat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636027327213651)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4 Prescriptions confirm the story. US GLP-1 class growth has cooled to low double digits after years of hyper-growth. Still expanding just at a more normal pace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636038081151473)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5 But the underlying drivers remain: Obesity market penetration [--] % Production still the bottleneck not demand Capex lifted to DKK [--] B to expand capacity Free cash flow guidance DKK [----] B This is a reinvestment phase not a demand problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636039771381805)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 What really caused the crash ✔ Expectations too high (30 P/E to 12) ✔ Guidance cut ✔ GLP-1 growth normalization ✔ Political noise on US drug pricing ✔ One-off restructuring hit EBIT Mostly sentiment and multiple compression. Not business decay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636041063219266)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7 The setup now Global GLP-1 share [--] % EBIT margin [--] % ROIC [--] % Dividend yield [---] % Net cash position At [--] P/E the market is pricing a bear case that hasnt materialized. $NVO G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987636042422255805)  2025-11-09T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Duolingo quietly crossed the line few SaaS names ever reach. FCF SBC One of the cleanest inflections in the space. $DUOL 🦉🦜 Duolingos on a hot streak. 🔥 Free cash flow now crushes stock-based comp. $DUOL 🦜 G&C https://t.co/Dx3PI5ru73 Duolingos on a hot streak. 🔥 Free cash flow now crushes stock-based comp. $DUOL 🦜 G&C https://t.co/Dx3PI5ru73"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987882686737002937)  2025-11-10T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1 Trouble behind the burrito boom. Chipotle keeps expanding steadily (8 % new stores yearly now [--] 900+). $CMG But same-store (LFL) sales have already turned negative. After adjusting for food inflation real growth looks even worse. Lets unpack 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987890905475379370)  2025-11-10T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jbulltard1 @BillAckman A pilot Id definitely like to see. Would be interesting to see how smaller portions impact LFL traffic vs margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1987894875832922264)  2025-11-10T14:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/4 FX is about to turn into a tailwind. Why Thursdays $NU earnings could surprise to the upside 🟣 G&C 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988248090059346403)  2025-11-11T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/4 FX-neutral growth has been [--] % every single quarter. Now BRL is strengthening reported USD numbers are about to pop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988248091862929643)  2025-11-11T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/4 Nubanks next frontier 🎥 Cristina Junqueira Co-Founder & Chief Growth Officer on the next frontier: expansion into the US market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988248094283059475)  2025-11-11T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/4 $NU reports Thursday after close. Whats your move Load the boat Add on dip Pass Already full position Load the boat Add on dip Pass Already full position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988248096891900264)  2025-11-11T14:11Z [---] followers, 10.7K engagements


"Good question. The FX impact for coming quarters isnt official guidance. $NU I estimated it using: USD/BRL & USD/MXN average quarterly rates (vs prior year) Reported revenue breakdown by region Historical sensitivity between FX-neutral and reported USD growth A rolling correlation model to approximate the FX drag or tailwind Its directional not predictive actual results may differ based on shifts in revenue mix or timing of recognition. Still with BRL strengthening [--] % YoY reported USD growth should look meaningfully better next quarter. G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988249138820006393)  2025-11-11T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Indeed the biggest drop in Constellations history. But also the highest cash flow in its history. Fundamentals up. Valuation down. $CSU $CSU.TO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988362605862547505)  2025-11-11T21:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Constellation Software $CSU Shares Outstanding (M) FY12 to FY25 21.2M No change. Zero dilution. $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988366374557675803 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988366374557675803"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988366374557675803)  2025-11-11T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DayPriest Thanks Priest. Great business model indeed. What kind of ROIC or ROIIC numbers do you assume in your models"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988599533702648098)  2025-11-12T13:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1 Vitec Software $VITB.ST Down 50% from highs But still one of the best compounders in the Nordics. Organic growth slowing Yes. Cash flow All-time high. Insiders Buying aggressively. Vertical software. Swedish style. 🧵👇 G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604802125922692)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2 The Machine Founded [----] in Ume. [--] niche software units. [-----] customers. [----] employees. Think: Constellation Softwares $CSU quieter Nordic cousin. Smaller. Sharper. Deeply local. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988604804482965964 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988604804482965964"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604804482965964)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"5 M&A Pause = Coiled Spring Investing cash burn: 🔴 FY22 [----] bn 🔴 FY23 [----] bn 🔴 FY24 [----] bn (record binge) 🟢 FY25 YTD [---] m Cash piling up. Valuations normalizing. Returns set to rebound hard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604812230103482)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 Insiders Are Loading Up [----] insider buys: ✅ CEO Olle Backman [--] k shares (370 kr) ✅ CFO Peter Lidstrm [---] + shares ✅ Board & senior execs consistent buyers ✅ Founders Sandberg & Stenlund still major holders Theyre not waiting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604815178645955)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8 The Setup ❌ M&A on pause cash building ✅ Organic +7 % record cash flow ✅ Insiders buying sentiment shifting When deals restart Earnings step-change higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604819431718936)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9 TL;DR $VITB = Nordic $CSU.TO $TOI.V Smaller. Steadier. Cheaper. [--] % recurring. Cash flow at ATH. Insiders all-in. M&A engine reloading. It compounds quietly. Until it doesnt. You in 👀 G&C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988604820979322977)  2025-11-12T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/3 of $NU's triple whammy confirmed ❔ Customer growth ❔ Higher ARPAC for existing customers ☑ FX-tailwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1988729769127547172)  2025-11-12T22:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"BOOM. 🤯 Triple whammy confirmed. $NU +42% YoY revenue growth in USD terms. ☑ Customer growth +16% to 127M ☑ Higher ARPAC +18% to [--] USD ☑ FX-tailwinds 3% tailwinds You saw it here first. Now we wait for the real currency tailwinds to show up in Q4 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1989083149494563276)  2025-11-13T21:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"My full writeup is available here: $TOI.V $CSU.TO $LMN.V http://garpandchill.substack.com http://garpandchill.substack.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990134436948508980)  2025-11-16T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"3/ Since [----] theyve bought 20+ niche manufacturers. Latest spree EnTrans / LBT / Simplex / Tankcon (2025). Each deal adds new products geographies & procurement synergies. 📊 Q3 FY25: Revenue +70 % C$406 m CFAD +8 % C$35 m (vs good comps)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418672251203758)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/ 💵💵 Cash engine CAFD / share FY20 $1.93 FY24 $5.42 FY25 (9 mo) $4.41. Dividend payout Q3 = C$3.4 m on C$34.6 m cash available [--] %. [--] % of cash reinvested into high-ROI tuck-ins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418677775093830)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/ 🔥 AI infrastructure tailwind Data centers need: Thermal energy storage & buffer tanks (Highland) Load-banks & fuel systems (Simplex) Oil-water separators (OWS line) @CJ0pp3l Thermal energy storage make-up water backup fuel OWS. @SimeonResearch_ AI HVAC + electrical spend surging. TVK a niche beneficiary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418683118645393)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9/ 🧮 Valuation & financials Market cap C$2.6 B. Trades at [--] Cash Available for Distribution (CFAD). ❗ [--] % CFAD per share CAGR (5 yrs). A compounding engine masquerading as a cyclical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418693780635983)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10/ 🧾 Debt & coverage New credit facility (Mar 2025): C$800 m revolver + term loans. Leverage [--] EBITDA post-EnTrans. Interest costs [---] % but FCF covers it comfortably. Ample liquidity to keep acquiring at [--] while earning [--] % returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418695131103500)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"12/ 🧩 TL;DR $TVK.TO = Tanks + Trailers + Thermal. A serial acquirer quietly compounding FCF across energy defense & AI infrastructure. [--] % insider ownership = alignment. No calls. No interviews. No slides. Discl. Shareholder since [----] (9% of portfolio)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990418697953960128)  2025-11-17T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks for the comment. Totally fair pushback. To be clear the thread outlines exactly what TerraVest does today (tanks trailers HVAC/containment fuel systems OWS units etc.). The AI angle isnt the core business. Its a potential unpriced tailwind because data centers need the very cooling fuel and water-management infrastructure TVK already builds. Whether it becomes meaningful or not will show up in the next few quarters. Im watching it closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990463193148215801)  2025-11-17T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"13/ to be clear. TerraVest is not an AI company. But data centers require tanks cooling backup fuel load banks and water management equipment. TerraVest supplies those niches so AI can become a tailwind on top of the core business. The next few quarters will show whether it moves the needle. $TVK.TO $TVK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990498149908296088)  2025-11-17T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Fair point. TerraVest is mainly a low organic growth high FCF industrial that wins through smart acquisitions. The angle is that some of their existing products are already used in large data centers so AI build-outs could become an extra tailwind. The next few quarters will show if it matters. Appreciate the pushback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1990498780186358122)  2025-11-17T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/16 🔥 Meet Tasmea $TEA An Australian industrial services company is quietly turning into a compounding monster: ROIIC above 20% EPS compounding 25% a year Insiders own 60% Acquisitions at [----] EBIT EBIT margin heading toward 15%+ Guiding $128m EBIT next year on 1.3B market cap 👉 If Mader is the organic compounding play Tasmea is the acquisitive one. And its catching up fast. $TEA.AX might be Australias best under-the-radar compounder. 👇🧵 http://MAD.AX http://MAD.AX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250210509475965)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2/16 🛠 What Tasmea actually does Tasmea runs [--] specialist maintenance businesses across Australia. Not construction. Not fixed-price contracting. Not risky EPC work. This is mission-critical maintenance for: Mining Energy Utilities Government ➡ High uptime value ➡ High repeat work ➡ High margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250216545308814)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/16 🔁 Revenue quality Tasmea generates 70%+ recurring revenue. Long-term contracts. High-urgency work. Deep relationships. Master Service Agreements (MSAs): 👉 IPO: [--] 👉 Today: [--] This is a fortress-style revenue base for a services company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250218986197487)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/16 🌬 Tailwinds everywhere Tasmea sits right in the slipstream of Australias most powerful industrial trends: ⚡ Electrification 🏗 Aging infrastructure needing more maintenance 🚚 Remote operations with limited competition ⛏ Mining + energy + renewables 🔗 Cross-selling across [--] subsidiaries 📈 Orderbook up 30% YoY EBIT margin: FY22: 8.9% FY26E: 15% This engine is firing on all cylinders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250224686543135)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/16 💸 Capital returns ROCE 29% ROIC 20% Cash conversion 100% (for years) Capex light (mainly light vehicles) Industrial services companies dont typically look like this. This one does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250240297422941)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"6/16 📈 EPS tells the real story Tasmea $TEA $TEA.AX issues shares to acquire companies so forget NPAT. Watch EPS: FY22: [----] FY23: [----] FY24: [----] FY25: [----] FY26E: [----] ➡ 2526% EPS CAGR At this growth rate [--] earnings is not expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250246488170749)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7/16 🧩 The acquisition edge Tasmea buys precisely what others ignore: Small Remote Highly specialised Founder-led Recurring maintenance work Deals typically close at 2.5-5 EBIT. Their niche: Too big for a "tradie" Too small or remote for private equity This creates a natural moat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250248627331379)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"9/16 🔍 Case study: The Flanco deal Upfront: $21m Shares worth: $6m Earn-out: Up to $50m Implied multiple: [----] EBIT outcome dependent Pay more only if they perform. 👉 ROIIC 15-26 percent 👉 EPS +12 percent This is how disciplined acquirers scale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250255304610263)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10/16 👑 Management (skin in the game) CEO Stephen Young: 40% ownership Executive team: 60% combined ownership Tenure: 10+ years LTIs will vest. Latest guidance 👉 $128m EBIT and $78m NPAT in FY26 🎥 Interview clip with Stephen Young This is owner-operator DNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250331779371426)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"11/16 ⚙ Growth algorithm Tasmea is unusually transparent: 15% organic target Actual: 33% organic EBIT CAGR since FY22 Acquisitions: 73% EBIT CAGR [--] acquisitions in [--] years Margin expansion to 15% FY26 guidance excludes extra M&A This is a real compounding engine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250337475240171)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"12/16 📥 DRIP = stealth compounding Tasmea offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan for management: Keeps cash inside a high-ROIC machine Insiders participate Quietly compounds your ownership over time Small feature Huge long-term advantage Skin in the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250339371081905)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"14/16 🔍 Valuation Based on FY26E EPS (0.30): 👉 [--] earnings Against: Mid-20s EPS growth ROIIC 20% Acqs at [----] EBIT Rapid margin expansion Clear growth playbook High quality at a non-demanding valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250347679989820)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"15/16 ⚠ Risks Australia-only exposure ⛏ 38% tied to iron ore 👷 Labour constraints in remote regions 📉 Dilution from acquisitions 🌏 China/geo risk 🔄 Diversification across multiple sectors helps smooth cyclicality Execution matters But theyve executed exceptionally well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250349437645007)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"16/16 🎯 The takeaway Tasmea $TEA.AX $TEA is: A serial acquirer of mission-critical maintenance businesses 70%+ recurring revenue ROIIC above 20% EPS compounding 25% 60% insider ownership EBIT margin moving toward 15%+ Guiding $128m EBIT / $78m NPAT next year Strong structural tailwinds A DRIP that fuels compounding One of Australias most compelling under-the-radar compounders Discl: Long High conviction 15% Position G&C #ASX #Investing #FinTwit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991250351370985870)  2025-11-19T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Receiving a lot of questions about the post-acquisition drop 👇 The multiple compressing to [--] forward NPAT doesnt surprise me. The market usually dislikes any dilution even when the shares are issued at a premium and the deal is [--] percent EPS accretive on day one. This is a playbook that $TEA $TEA.AX has shown previously and with great success. But nothing in the thesis changed. If anything the pro-forma numbers ($128m EBIT and $78m NPAT) strengthened it. Plus shares were issued at a premium even more so after the drop making the acquisition even better. This looks more like a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991601213758996490)  2025-11-20T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/ $BRK $TOI.V (Topicus) The quiet compounding engine inside the Constellation ecosystem. Topicus combines: ☑Mission-critical software ☑Deep embedding in workflows ☑Hundreds of decentralized operators ☑A culture trained by $CSU.TO but with more organic growth Every euro of free cash flow is reinvested into new verticals or acquisitions. A compounding machine in slow motion see FCFA2S in graph below excl. 25% Asseco stake. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991874970234875979 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991874970234875979"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991874970234875979)  2025-11-21T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks Zack interesting take. Do you have any data points on delivery cost per order to support that From $MELI its filings unit logistics costs actually fell 8% QoQ in Brazil after the R$19 threshold helped by having far more distribution centers and higher density. My understanding is that MELIs cost per shipment is structurally lower because of that footprint. But happy to hear the other side"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1991961189211865149)  2025-11-21T20:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@meeijer @mvcinvesting @daniel_koss @genZinvest0r @babyfolio @EndicottInvests @MB_Hogan Great list 👌 Might need to add one more soon for $MELI and Serial Acquirers like $TOI 😄"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1992003833359397359)  2025-11-21T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks @the_zack_zhu and @CapexAndChill. Really appreciate the detailed breakdown. I'm a $MELI bull but always open to hear the other side. I do think $SE executes extremely well in the low end segment but Im not yet convinced they have structural cost leadership over MELI in Brazil. The big question for me is where Shopees margins in Brazil actually are. MELI consciously traded margins for market share this year and it worked. Brazil GMV returned to healthy YoY growth and MELI drove a [--] percent jump in order volume. My only concern is avoiding a race to the bottom. LatAm ecommerce is still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1992244628045631538)  2025-11-22T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The S&P500 $SPY is only [--] percent from all time highs. Meanwhile many quality names are still [----] percent below theirs. 🩸 $DUOL 68% $NVO 67% $EVO.ST 66% $ADBE 53% $LMN.V 51% $TOI.V 40% $AXON 40% $CSU.TO 37% $NOW 31% $LVMH 28% $MELI 25% $RACE 25% $SPOT 25% $META 25% Crypto isnt getting much love either: $ETH 43% $BTC 32% Serious alpha hiding in unjustly beaten-down compounders. What names would you add to this list 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1992953853046936061)  2025-11-24T13:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Investiri Love Kaspi. They tick a lot of boxes. Great management too. Only thing I worry about is whether they can outgrow inflation. USD-denominated growth is much lower than in KZT terms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1993000168288141391)  2025-11-24T16:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@deepvalueco Yes. Whats your method for calculating NAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1993740401396613455)  2025-11-26T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Agreed. Simpler is often better. I do the same for their other holdings than Action. I would argue Action is worth more than they report it to be (say 22-25 EBITDA multiple). But that can be considered your margin of safety. Directionally is what matters anyway. Thanks for clarifying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1993742530702180689)  2025-11-26T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PronkDaniel The market does not like dilution. But I was surprised by the sell-off post the WorkPac acquisition. Even excluding synergies they still guided for 10%+ EPS growth (per share not NPAT). To me this remains one of the easiest names to average up on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1993792210379395186)  2025-11-26T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 Just watched Ariel Szapiros fresh interview as incoming CEO of Mercado Libre. $MELI Pure fire on Latin Americas untapped goldmine in e commerce and fintech. If you are bullish on emerging markets this is your wake up call. 👇 Here are my takeaways 📹"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994057152609034674)  2025-11-27T14:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"2/6 E commerce runway 100M unique buyers last year in a region with 600M people That is 5X potential ahead Ariel: The next [--] years could be even bigger than the first This is Amazon level scale still early stage in LatAm Undervalued You tell me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994057156467851578)  2025-11-27T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/6 Fintech rocket fuel Mexico today [--] percent unbanked [--] percent no credit card Mercado Pago is growing triple digits Ariel says $MELI is still tiny compared to what we can be Financial inclusion = the real flywheel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994057160431460828)  2025-11-27T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/6 Culture is the moat Founder Marcos Galperin built the vision But execution wins the war World class team They hire and fire on cultural fit Risk taking Innovation Flexibility They thrive across LatAm chaos while others struggle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994057163308687477)  2025-11-27T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5/6 AI is already inside $MELI has used machine learning for [--] years Fraud prevention Shipping promises Recommendations Now genAI is scaling Better search Cleaner photos Smarter Mercado Pago Ariel wants AI impact without losing the culture edge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994057166873907620)  2025-11-27T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Pabloblancop Hi Pablo unfortunately I have no data available from Q4 24"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994504456420167900)  2025-11-28T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"only has data since 09/25. @khalid_investor had a nice tracker but was discontinued after his scraper was blocked by EVO. has a paid tier where you should be able to find traffic from last last year. That being said Player data has been a bad indicator for revenues. Many factors impact revenues such as bet size payout fx-effects. I mainly use it to check whether Asia issues are trending in a good direction. Which according to the data they seem to be. Would be great if we get a good Asia quarter. http://livecasino.watch http://evodata.vercel.app http://livecasino.watch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994582286432354359)  2025-11-29T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Pabloblancop @khalid_investor Exactly. After stealing the video stream they overlay their betting software and redistribute"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994759932785430755)  2025-11-29T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Youre right that this happens in Korea. Contracted operators can access the stream legally and then hide bets with a fake UI to avoid paying EVO. Thats a real issue but it only covers a small part of the Asian market. Most of the problem is still full illegal restreaming: one genuine EVO session is pirated and redistributed to many downstream players who never touch EVOs servers. EVO never redistributes streams itself the hijackers do. So yes EVO sometimes registers a player without revenue but in many markets it doesnt see the player at all. Because of that mix player count is still useful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994763889901252933)  2025-11-29T13:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/3 FCFA2S is about to explode. Ive seen FY26 estimates anywhere from 280m to 560m. The spread isnt about how much Topicus deployed but about how fast the [----] acquisitions show up in FCFA2S and how quickly the ROIIC ramps. Even the lowest estimates guide for 35% growth y-o-y. What's your ballpark figure for FY26 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994764195108143135)  2025-11-29T13:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@AukeTempel Much appreciated. Yes those FCFA2S estimates exclude Asseco. My preferred way to account for Asseco is to deduct the value of Topicuss Asseco stake from Topicuss EV. Since Asseco is equity-accounted its earnings dont show up in FCFA2S anyway only the dividend will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994775070397669606)  2025-11-29T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Thats an interesting take appreciate you sharing it. 250M would definitely be at the lower end of the range Ive seen. True the Asseco purchase absorbs a big chunk of deployed capital but theres still 500M+ left for Cipal and the other [----] investments. There could additionally be a large dividend from Asseco flowing through FCFA2S related to the acquisition. And worth noting: the Cipal Schaubroeck deal was only consolidated as of June [--] [----] so the full run-rate impact wont show until next year. Lets see what FY26 brings and if not then [----]. Thanks for sharing your estimates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994841695125737627)  2025-11-29T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks for sharing that. If Korea were really [--] percent of Asian revenues that would be much larger than I would expect and it would indeed be concerning. I try to stick to the data I have. Asian game activity increased in Q2 which happened to coincide with a strong quarter for Asia revenue. I would not rely on player count alone because as we discussed there is more happening behind the scenes. That said an increase in players on Asian titles is still a positive signal. Now we wait to see whether it carries through into a strong Q4. Thanks for the discussion. I appreciate the pushback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994841708366864446)  2025-11-29T18:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SimeonResearch_ @corporalCocoPuf @3Plantey2 @dgmarkoulis On the contrary. I appreciate sharing your positions and specially your mistakes. We all make mistakes. Risk management is therefore v important"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1994845624370696322)  2025-11-29T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you care about quality investing this is the greatest free resource on the internet. A trove of insight hidden in these letters. Nick Sleeps full Nomad letters. The blueprint behind 20.8% CAGR for [--] years. Bookmark this. Read it. It will change how you invest. Link👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1995116524139434283)  2025-11-30T13:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Pabloblancop @khalid_investor Got the data from the now discontinued tracker by Khalid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1995216394628280533)  2025-11-30T19:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/14 Q3 [----] snapshot From the latest report: Net sales +5% to 1.5B SEK Organic growth +2% (FX adj) Adj. EBITA +8% to 275M SEK 9M Adj. EBITA 983M SEK margin 21% Net debt / EBITDA [---] Operating cash flow 717M SEK YTD Good execution. But momentum has slowed. 👎"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GarpandChill/status/1995462324837089587)  2025-12-01T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing