#  @GHadjia George Hadjia George Hadjia posts on X about $mtch, in the, meta, $fico the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::719356127742263300/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +300% - [--] Month [-------] +81% - [--] Months [-------] +42% - [--] Year [-------] -74% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::719356127742263300/posts_active)  - [--] Months [---] +66% - [--] Year [---] -2.40% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::719356127742263300/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.21% - [--] Month [------] +0.55% - [--] Months [------] +4.50% - [--] Year [------] +11% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::719356127742263300/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [gaming](/list/gaming) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) **Social topic influence** [$mtch](/topic/$mtch), [in the](/topic/in-the), [meta](/topic/meta), [$fico](/topic/$fico), [$app](/topic/$app), [fund](/topic/fund), [$meta](/topic/$meta), [$par](/topic/$par), [$fnd](/topic/$fnd) #1, [business](/topic/business) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@itsdanielwu](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@reustlematt](/creator/undefined) [@buccocapital](/creator/undefined) [@ericseufert](/creator/undefined) [@zissoucapital](/creator/undefined) [@nypost](/creator/undefined) [@benthompson](/creator/undefined) [@bizbreakdowns](/creator/undefined) [@rebrandasy](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@tmtmoats](/creator/undefined) [@buysidebogey](/creator/undefined) [@speedwellllc](/creator/undefined) [@stratechery](/creator/undefined) [@ericseuferts](/creator/undefined) [@lexfridmans](/creator/undefined) [@eugenengvcap](/creator/undefined) [@andrewchen](/creator/undefined) [@gavinsbaker](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Match Group Inc (MTCH)](/topic/$mtch) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [AppLovin Corporation (APP)](/topic/$app) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)](/topic/$fnd) [Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)](/topic/$aer) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)](/topic/$pins) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)](/topic/$ibkr) [RH (RH)](/topic/$rh) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Fenerbahçe Token (FB)](/topic/$fb) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [SuperWalk (GRND)](/topic/$grnd) [Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO)](/topic/$ttwo) [Bumble Inc. (BMBL)](/topic/$bmbl) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS)](/topic/$snps) [Unity Software Inc. (U)](/topic/$u) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Dutch Bros, Inc. (BROS)](/topic/$bros) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours ""$U is so expensive. It trades on 29x revenues". No not really. $U charges a US$1.8k/yr flat fee and 85% of users actually use a free version of the s/w which is almost at feature parity with the paid version. There is significant underpricing. 1/ THREAD" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1405884019590504450) 2021-06-18T13:44Z 10.3K followers, [---] engagements "$FB and $GOOGL dominating share of mind for attention on mobile. Mobile Traffic Worldwide $GOOG & $FB = 🤯 https://t.co/R6fLVhfWTt Mobile Traffic Worldwide $GOOG & $FB = 🤯 https://t.co/R6fLVhfWTt" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1442484618981265409) 2021-09-27T13:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I imagine some pods are hurting rn. $U Some intraday whiplash 🙌" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1458453147811254272) 2021-11-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is pretty sick. $META" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1582759194901778433) 2022-10-19T15:42Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Redburn noted $ABNB is spending again on Google SEM for first time since 2019; red flag given prior mgt commentary talking up direct traffic and limited impact of prior performance spend and to the extent it's a sign of desperation/signal of a deteriorating demand environment" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1625252906994917376) 2023-02-13T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SPOT coming for Ticketmaster $LYV only with an engaged user base and superior data. Would be surprised if SPOT couldnt damage Ticketmasters moat over the next decade. 840k concerts uploaded to Spotifys platform in [----] is a decent start" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1639060019218874369) 2023-03-24T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Were going fromcuration to recommendation to generation. And I suspect it will be as big of a shift that you will eventually have to rethink your products - Gustav Sderstrm CTO $SPOT" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1660279449688866820) 2023-05-21T13:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is what a wartime CEO looks like. $META" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663277925708230658) 2023-05-29T20:15Z 10.3K followers, 14.7K engagements "Another great post by @MarcRuby. 32% of Coinbase revenues are at risk which could be closer to two-thirds of earnings given the higher margins on these revenue lines. Theres investments with hair on them and then theres $COIN. https://open.substack.com/pub/netinterest/p/whisky-and-oranges-and-coinbaser=6grhx&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post https://open.substack.com/pub/netinterest/p/whisky-and-oranges-and-coinbaser=6grhx&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1667466073845780480) 2023-06-10T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SPOT is a great product but while there's LT potential the ability for it to convert its product leadership into solid economics for equityholders remains clouded. The Q2 result showed blowout MAU net adds but a continued inability to parlay this into profitable growth" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1684062757807861760) 2023-07-27T03:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Kind of wild that $MTCH fell 83% peak-to-trough and is still down c.75% from the highs. Curious to hear from bulls/bears on the name. DMs are open" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1684486596072964097) 2023-08-01T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "That's a very nice chart re Tinder rev/day accel $MTCH. Tinder price increases seem to be sticking (manageable payer drop off @ -4% & notably they're remaining in the ecosystem). This is big given that Tinder = 56% of revs and even % of earnings. Narrative inflection underway" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1686617076864282624) 2023-08-02T05:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It was all there in Q1 to piece together the $FND guidance downgrade. While total FND sales were up 9.1% YoY in Q1 the +19% YoY Pro sales growth masked the fact that non-Pro sales which represent 58% of FNDs sales mix declined by 6.2% YoY" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1687210296056942592) 2023-08-03T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FND result was a case of the best house in a (temporarily) bad neighborhood. Comps @ -6% YoY in Q2 decelerated vs. -3.3% in Q1. -6.6%/-5.5%/-6% Apr/May/Jun comps gave no signs of a turnaround. Implied mature stores comping at c.-8% YoY in Q2. Comp ticket decelerating hard" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1687403523137503232) 2023-08-04T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Love this from MS back in [----]. $MTCH "First given the young age of the target demo and frequent unwillingness to pay monthly recurring fees for social services we believe Tinder will not have much success monetizing with a high-cost recurring monthly subscription offering"" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1688855613655453696) 2023-08-08T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Had to pick up some things from IKEA. Every time I visit part of me dies that its not a public company" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1691626726647091267) 2023-08-16T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Maverick has [--] individuals on the investment team w. [--] of their [--] years avg experience being w. Maverick. If ever there was an indicator of an investment firm culture thats working" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1694269428723294548) 2023-08-23T08:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""These multi-strats and this concept of vol targeting.the majority of the capital that is being deployed by these large firms are based.from a risk management perspective on the level of volatility that they create. And so as a result the lower the volatility in the world the more capital they're deploying.it is dictating a lot of the flows and the performance that we see on a daily basis in markets today. So I don't think I would understand what I'm seeing now if it wasn't for the fact that we worked at Citadel for a year and a half." "One of the things that struck me was it's not investing." [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1699909580812406862) 2023-09-07T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the investment community and we encourage criticism particularly well-reasoned pushback" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1701918574460424476) 2023-09-13T11:19Z 10.3K followers, 48.8K engagements "Below are some highlights from the report. If you got value from this analysis be sure to subscribe to get future stock deep dives. The next write-up will be on $CPRT" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1701918576238899522) 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Recent product and marketing changes at Tinder contributing to a reassuring top-of-funnel trajectory for Tinder as evidenced by a recent disclosure in the 2Q23 Shareholder Letter" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1701918579711758727) 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We look at disclosures from the Epic v Apple lawsuit to understand the economics of power users re app monetisation and what the potential is for $MTCH with its imminent super premium tier" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1701918581519532362) 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Introducing a super premium tier could be material to $MTCH's earnings although we also note drawbacks inherent in dating apps that put a ceiling on monetisation vs the world of gaming" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1701918583268495669) 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Documenting and sharing the insights of Bristlemoon is also useful for external parties in that it provides transparency around Bristlemoon as a fund. We do deep work and follow a rigorous process; our writeups will hopefully be evidence of that" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1703727538319806712) 2023-09-18T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Bristlemoon Capital write-up on $MTCH can be viewed here. Feel free to subscribe if you got value from that article. The next report will be on $CPRT" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1703727541457232349) 2023-09-18T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Pretty downbeat reporting on $DG w. stores in a state of disrepair/mismanaged. Sounds like a total circus" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1704749524215054441) 2023-09-21T06:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "That's a pretty decent work perk NEW: @BillAckman tells me why hes still bullish on Manhattan his back to the office solution and the latest on his presidential picks @nypost https://t.co/lemw1zcoPx NEW: @BillAckman tells me why hes still bullish on Manhattan his back to the office solution and the latest on his presidential picks @nypost https://t.co/lemw1zcoPx" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705037730475036925) 2023-09-22T01:54Z 10.3K followers, 18.4K engagements "These analyst vs market maker comments from Michael Platt are great and are just another example of how the very best traders respect the market in a way that sometimes contradicts value investing dogma" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1709537457338011928) 2023-10-04T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I always learn a ton from these @eric_seufert and @benthompson conversations. A must read for anyone involved in the ads space. $U $APP $META $PINS" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1710154220220068004) 2023-10-06T04:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Grindr stats are wild. "Our users produce about [---] million individual chat messages a day which is about [---] per daily active user. That's about 12x more than on WhatsApp." - CEO George Arison (GS conference)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1711147134349922557) 2023-10-08T22:30Z 10.3K followers, 20.9K engagements "Bernstein spreading the word on $MTCH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1716530431217271233) 2023-10-23T19:02Z 10.3K followers, 44.4K engagements "@borrowed_ideas An amazing body of work. Good stuff and looking forward to reading the $ENPH report" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1716559830020964541) 2023-10-23T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Im stoked to have joined @ReustleMatt on Business Breakdowns to discuss $MTCH - a true battleground stock. Enjoyed breaking down the heavily contested MTCH with @GHadjia on @bizbreakdowns We cover industry dynamics business model dynamics and what broke the stock. Make sure to check out George's research as well. https://t.co/qtPqhHdUgh Enjoyed breaking down the heavily contested MTCH with @GHadjia on @bizbreakdowns We cover industry dynamics business model dynamics and what broke the stock. Make sure to check out George's research as well. https://t.co/qtPqhHdUgh" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1717137561859268798) 2023-10-25T11:14Z 10.3K followers, 13.6K engagements "@wolfofharcourt @ReustleMatt Fighting the good fight with $MTCH" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1717138632803578276) 2023-10-25T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dating apps are hard to scale. Hinge is a great example and its success was by no means a fait accompli. People often forget that absent Match buying them in [----] Hinge had funding problems that were likely to have proven existential. Thoughts below in link" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1717861750387933447) 2023-10-27T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TMTMoats @ReustleMatt Thank you Glad you enjoyed it" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1718039353765818870) 2023-10-27T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TMTMoats @ReustleMatt Awesome - love to hear it Agree on $META analogy too" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1718047909479075897) 2023-10-27T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@buysidebogey @CCM_Brett Payers of course matter but there are legitimate reasons behind the payer declines which should abate over coming qtrs. If payers are still declining at that point then the thesis was wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719504535914463257) 2023-11-01T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MTCH acquiring Hinge for c.$25m in '18 is new info. Terms were undisclosed at the time of acquisition but we know that Hinge did $5.2m total rev in '18 against MTCH FY18 rev of $1.7bn. Hinge now on track to do $400m FY23 rev and is a multi-billion $ asset. Pretty good" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719549361296916491) 2023-11-01T02:58Z 10.3K followers, 246.1K engagements "$MTCH looked okay on the surface; below the surface it was pretty bad. The Tinder net payers stabilization/inflection keeps getting pushed out and marked a significant degradation vs. prior comments (see below). Some thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719932119470973369) 2023-11-02T04:19Z 10.3K followers, 42.9K engagements "Given Tinder net adds are STILL negative ex. US pricing and weekly subs impact you're banking on product refresh and marketing initiatives to bring about payer growth which is MUCH harder to underwrite vs. a known impact abating. That shifts the thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932135883391021) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MTCH isn't ownable for a lot of investors until there's credible evidence of Tinder payers growing again (or they might own it just at a cigar butt multiple). The problem is that the Tinder payer # trajectory has disappointed and top-of-funnel issues remain" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932138068525131) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Mgt is still guiding to improving sequential Tinder payer growth and HSD % FY24 Tinder rev growth. This was in the context of CFO guiding to only 1-2 ppts of S&M -ve mgn impact in FY24. The problem is the mkt doesn't believe this" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932146897617090) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Mgt have shown that they are poor at predicting their biz and/or it's difficult to predict and more macro exposed than prev thought. Dating apps have never gone through a proper eco cycle and w. draining US savings rates US student loan payments resuming" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932148961136826) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "and higher credit card delinquencies there is more financial stress to the consumer that will likely impact $MTCH (particularly the ALC rev component). This comment on the Q3 call re macro was ominous: "we're increasingly nervous about what's to come in the months ahead."" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932151171564031) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tough to know but we will get additional color when $BMBL reports. Mgt is clearly highly cognizant of not blowing out mktg spend and are redirecting it to Tinder & Hinge from other brands. Also not great if they're starving other brands of mktg $" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932161011171726) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It's possible $MTCH is a value trap although it's too early to conclude this definitively. The stock is optically cheap at 9x fwd P/E and even if you assume 3% Tinder payer declines for the rest of time + a 2ppt step up in S&M mgn you can stil get $4 FCF/sh in FY27" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1719932163364413933) 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a report on $CPRT one of the best businesses we've ever encountered (link below). The problem is that the mkt is seemingly missing the pricing-led high-incremental mgn growth of the last few years being replaced by relatively lower mgn vol growth" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720399599897354330) 2023-11-03T11:16Z 10.3K followers, 114.5K engagements "This along with relatively stronger growth from the much lower mgn international biz will likely see mgns struggle to hold these elevated levels. The stock is richly valued and falls far short of our return thresholds" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399602053214383) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We look at the mechanics of $CPRT's biz starting with how a total loss for a vehicle is determined following an automotive accident" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399603982586344) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We then detail how Copart processes these vehicles and the steps involved" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399606520119496) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPRT's value-add revolves around being able to get the highest price for an auctioned vehicle (on behalf of mostly insurance company sellers) a function of Copart's strong buyer liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399608906645759) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We drill into the financials to understand key metrics such as ROIC. It is safe to say that $CPRT's historical ROIC and ROIIC figures have been incredible w. a 28% average ROIC over the last decade" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399616171262234) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It is important to note that volume gains from increases in the total loss frequency rate will experience diminishing returns making future volume growth from each incremental ppt of TLF less impactful" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399618545192997) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We undertook an illustrative analysis of the volume vs ASP dynamics particularly given some of the interplay between fixed and variable Copart fee components. This has important implications for future revenue growth and mgns for the business" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399620952707269) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPRT is richly valued and fails to meet our return thresholds. The current price means that under reasonable assumptions investors should expect a HSD % IRR with very aggressive assumptions required to push that IRR up to 15%" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720399623360270477) 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BarrySchwartzBW Some thoughts on $CPRT" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720548842112983055) 2023-11-03T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DimitryNakhla @BritishDividend Some thoughts on $CPRT" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1720549071390478397) 2023-11-03T21:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Have started going through $RH for the next writeup. There are some gems in the call transcripts" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1727501952274268198) 2023-11-23T01:38Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements "$MTCH now targeting QoQ Tinder payer growth in mid-24' and YoY growth by YE-24' Wells Fargo TMT conference. Really need to bank on the product refresh helping the top-of-funnel trends which according to CFO are "slowly bouncing back". Co now talking about a heavy mktg push" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1731806950319419610) 2023-12-04T22:45Z 10.3K followers, 22K engagements "Macro is having an impact" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1731806957609050451) 2023-12-04T22:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$MTCH doesn't plan to expand Hinge beyond Europe in [----]. Asia will be a [----] move. "The overlap between Tinder and Hinge is not nearly as high as I think people think it is. But Hinge really resonating is having some knock-on effects to Tinder. I think it's hard to deny that."" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1731806960230822180) 2023-12-04T22:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "CFO on current Px: "And so when I look at the $32-ish stock price and I know that all those factors are out there from a financial and operating metric standpoint I struggle to understand kind of where people's heads are at."" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1731806962185347120) 2023-12-04T22:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "21hrs in and the GTA VI trailer has c.85m YT views. For reference the original GTA V trailer [--] yrs ago has 99m lifetime views. There's arguably no entertainment property in the world that has a better pre-release hype cycle than what Rockstar does with GTA franchise. $TTWO" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1732140796609167796) 2023-12-05T20:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BLyons151 Thanks Brad. Same to you - happy holidays" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739065428973134015) 2023-12-24T23:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This was an eventful year and Im incredibly grateful: - I resigned from my job in April - I moved from NYC back to Sydney in July - I launched the Bristlemoon Substack in September and have close to [----] subs - I released an album on Spotify (see below) - Im preparing to launch a global L/S fund next year. Wishing all of you a productive and prosperous 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1739748262226350573) 2023-12-26T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is part of the "A Short We Like" series we will run on an ongoing basis providing insights into the Bristlemoon short book" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744496689350893700) 2024-01-08T23:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Around 2/3 of EYE's customers are uninsured: they must reach into their own pockets to fund eyecare purchases. We believe there's a risk that eyewear purchase cycles elongate as these low income consumers stretch the dollars they have by delaying eyewear purchases" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744496691313770698) 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We also expect an outsized impact on FCF given the de minimis capex attributable to WMT stores (which are physical located inside WMT). With 15% of earnings falling away this could cause a 50% FCF decline absent a corresponding decline in capex" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744496695457747110) 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Check out the full report for further details. If you enjoyed this research please be sure to subscribe and check out our other reports on $MTCH $CPRT and $RH" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744496697336902009) 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Very much feels as though Threads throttles the distribution of posts with external links (even when accounting for differences in follower sizes). Seems short-sighted for $META to be penalizing threads that have links. Yes they end up retaining attention but Threads is arguably more valuable as a content surfacing mechanism where readers can discover long-form content that would be unsuitable if decomposed into a post on Threads" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744535727847993380) 2024-01-09T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Others recognizing the value in $MTCH WSJ: Tinder Owner Match Draws Elliott Investment" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744560601060532235) 2024-01-09T03:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Linking here our insights on $MTCH following the announcement of Elliott building a stake in the company. I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the investment community and we encourage criticism particularly well-reasoned pushback. https://t.co/IxPGGFgEiP I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1744679288010686553) 2024-01-09T11:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bristlemoon Capital just hit [----] subscribers. Hugely thankful for all the support and excited for a big year ahead writing content that is hopefully interesting and valuable. We've written about $MTCH $CPRT $RH $META $EYE and the next writeup will be on $TTD. Stay tuned" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745558923774701643) 2024-01-11T21:30Z 10.3K followers, 13.3K engagements "Interesting comments from Tegus call around AI automating the creative for ad campaigns and how this unlocks $ for advertisers that can be plowed back into more ads. Tailwind for $META which is abstracting away more and more of the ad campaign into their black box" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1748123293885075517) 2024-01-18T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A quantification of the click-to-Messenger opp for $META. Advertisers paying c.$40 CPMs for CTM ads (v. expensive vs. other formats) but this works out as $2 per chat relationship half of which become recurring. So $4 spend to potentially boost customer LTV by $40 = 10x ROAS" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1748462416168714508) 2024-01-19T21:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y We just published some thoughts on the $MTCH result" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1753207704691306791) 2024-02-02T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon published its thoughts on the $MTCH result. The key question remains unchanged: will Tinder be able to stabilize and grow users/payers. We admit the path to mgt's 3Q24 +ve QoQ Tinder net payers and 4Q24 Tinder YoY payer growth remains hazy and banks on product/mktg initiatives gaining traction. We break down the numbers and provide an update on our thoughts touching on the degradation in Tinder payer inflection guidance/expectations Tinder's updated product roadmap implications from an "always-on" marketing stance potential plans that Elliott could try and implement and capital" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1753209628849213532) 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Here is the link to our original report" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1753209633018466766) 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And here is a link to an ancillary article on why Hinge would have gone bankrupt if $MTCH didn't acquire it following our appearance on the Business Breakdowns podcast" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1753209635136577871) 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SNAP - like clockwork" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1754980214235607286) 2024-02-06T21:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Speedwell_LLC Exactly $SNAP doesnt hold a candle to $META. Theyre not even in the same galaxy" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1754981814127735263) 2024-02-06T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad channels (CTV + retail media) but we question the extent to which TTD will benefit explore the likely take rate pressure and other risks such as" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913623522095137) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "signal loss from cookie deprecation risks around the scalability and regulatory scrutiny re $TTD's alt. ID called UID2 as well as supply path optimization risks. We do our best to cut through the complexity and provide a balanced view" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913625979965619) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TTD is one of the greatest stock compounding stories achieving a 40x stock return in [--] years since it listed" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913628190425544) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We set the stage by exploring the various programmatic buying models and give an overview of the ad tech industry participants" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913630476255255) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We then explore $TTD's positioning as a programmatic ad buying platform. As a pure-play DSP TTD doesnt own or operate any of its own ad inventory. Instead it obtains a supply of omnichannel inventory from over [---] directly integrated ad exchanges and SSPs" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913632795754959) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We give a brief recap of $TTD's phenomenal financial performance. Since the companys IPO in [----] it has compounded gross spend and revenue at a 38% CAGR handily outgrowing the broader open programmatic market and taking [---] bps of market share between [----] and 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913634729271443) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We dive into the technical details of $TTD's platform. Bid factoring is TTDs original technical claim to fame and allows traders to apply a factor or weight to elements of the bidstream such as ad size site device etc. that are more likely to produce the best ad performance" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913636591546509) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We discuss $TTD's competitive differentiation looking at the companies scale independence close relationship with agencies and greater transparency and control for ad buyers" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913638390915361) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We challenge $TTD mgt's assessment of the CTV opportunity and highlight risks around walled gardening and agencies going direct to publishers. There is also an outstanding question on what % of CTV ad buying shifts to programmatic biddable which informs CPMs and fees for $TTD" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913640353808479) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There are material differences in fees for the different forms of programmatic ad buying and we believe that this will create a negative mix headwind for $TTD as CTV growth continues to outpace the remainder of TTD's business" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913642631360769) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We strongly push back on mgt's assertion that CTV CPMs as a rule of thumb are higher for biddable inventory than guaranteed inventory. Their investor day disclosures were shall we say massaged" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913644892094505) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We then explore the retail media opportunity; we are skeptical that the opportunity for $TTD is as large as mgt paints it to be due to a lack of capabilities to serve onsite retail media" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913647161172157) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We call into question the sustainability of $TTD's take rate due to the impact of CTV mix as well as 3rd party cookie deprecation" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1757913649702932605) 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TTD is a solid biz but we have a number of reservations which we felt were not reflected in the share price (see our report). This was before the 20%+ AH price jump after the Q4 result. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad channels (CTV + retail media) but we question the extent to which TTD will benefit explore the likely take rate pressure and other risks such as. https://t.co/pvaNNqRfr4 Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1758241100052193763) 2024-02-15T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Finally getting around to the @eric_seufert interview on @stratechery. Great stuff as always and a clear explanation of the mechanics and significance of the $META and $AMZN partnership" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759699977495007238) 2024-02-19T22:02Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Had dinner at the parents' place last night. Afterwards dad sat me down and put on an $NVDA Jensen keynote. "How did you miss this one" he whispers. A sign of the times" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1761909629133762632) 2024-02-26T00:22Z 10.3K followers, 18.9K engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y Agree. I could spend weeks/months digging into the tech/opp for $NVDA but even then I feel like I'd struggle to underwrite the future for the biz with real conviction. Parsing out the cyclical/structural is just too hard for me vs spending time on other opps out there" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1761911564922413332) 2024-02-26T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$U: "I mean on the Grow side we're just seeing a more intense competitive environment right And you've all seen some of our competitors report numbers. Some of them have been better than ours. So it's just been a more intense and some of the innovation they've brought to the market has been strong." Code for $APP is crushing it and we've badly dropped the ball" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1762339944658579727) 2024-02-27T04:52Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements "$MTCH not looking as bad after $BMBL result. They raised similar issues around the lack of innovation for the Bumble App leading to less traction with Gen Z users as well as a weak macro backdrop having an impact particularly amongst younger users. The big negative for BMBL was the U.S. top-of-funnel weakness. In this sense BMBL feels analogous to MTCH but just on a delayed timeline in terms of their product refresh (funnily enough BMBL is the mirror image of MTCH in that they are growing paying users strongly but ARPU is declining). For both stocks there has been an increasing need to" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1762949274302910819) 2024-02-28T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Stoked to have appeared on @StockJabber's Sunday Idea's Brunch to discuss Bristlemoon Capital $MTCH $EYE and why I'm launching a global long/short fund from Sydney Australia" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1764395305150423138) 2024-03-03T20:59Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements "Wild that $APP lobbed a bid in for $U in August [----]. How things have changed. From @eric_seufert's MDM piece (@MobileDevMemo): "As I noted when AppLovins bid to acquire Unity issued following Unitys announcement that it would merge with ironSource was rejected the three public mobile gaming advertising networks had roughly similar market share before Q4 [----]. In its most recent earnings release Unitys advertising revenue of $319MM (representing the combined revenue of Unity and ironSource) stood at 55% of AppLovins."" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1765610537050923373) 2024-03-07T05:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A striking reminder that not all fortunes are created with equal levels of morality. Soros's behavior is as abhorrent as his total lack of any remorse. Another example of a faulty moral compass is the story told by @BillAckman on his recent appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast about Carl Icahn failing to honor the "schmuck insurance" deal he made when Ackman was running Gotham Partners. Gotham Partners owned a big stake in Hallwood Realty Partners. It needed an activist to unlock the value. Gotham Partners was winding down at the time and didn't have the resources to pursue this opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1767714654237900897) 2024-03-13T00:49Z 10.3K followers, 124.9K engagements "He did and he also had a fiduciary duty when acting on behalf of his clients. I think there's also some merit that these currencies might have broken regardless of his trading. But the reasoning that "if I didn't do it somebody else would have" while true is dangerous. If you flip it it's hard to mount a case that Soros is a shining beacon of morality" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1767765477605204463) 2024-03-13T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "While $WSM is being used as a read-through for $RH my view is theres more thats idiosyncratic to the $RH story than not with the lineup refresh and associated GM risk. See our published report for more details. Bristlemoon published a report on $RH a business that we like but one we believe has been significantly overearning in recent years. The normalization of the COVID demand bump is coinciding with a period where RH is refreshing 80% of its product assortment the largest Bristlemoon published a report on $RH a business that we like but one we believe has been significantly overearning in" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1768042154696605836) 2024-03-13T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Thanks for the shoutout mate I think $TTD is a solid biz. Its just that ad tech is inherently opaque and its hard to get confidence around the economics (namely take rates) for CTV/retail media + diff industry dynamics in these mkts re publisher concentration. Val doesnt give a mgn of safety for that uncertainty" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1768792475530080268) 2024-03-16T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (16k words) on Dutch Bros $BROS a U.S. drive-thru coffee chain that is like a cross between $SBUX and Dairy Queen. BROS has [---] shops and is targeting [----] shops over the next 10-15 years (an 11-17% CAGR). We explore issues such as" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1770203602134737012) 2024-03-19T21:40Z 10.3K followers, 97.9K engagements "Just remember that Facebook in [----] had similar revenues ($777m) to $RDDT today yet had 34% operating margins vs -17% for Reddit. The lack of cost discipline at $RDDT is truly astonishing. For every dollar of revenue theyre paying 55c for R&D and I cant figure out what for You maniacs are paying $8bn for this $RDDT https://t.co/C5ruHZZvCI You maniacs are paying $8bn for this $RDDT https://t.co/C5ruHZZvCI" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1770908630365122628) 2024-03-21T20:21Z 10.3K followers, 70.7K engagements "Consensus GM numbers for next year look VERY optimistic. I find it very hard to get there" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1773149604718010787) 2024-03-28T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "You REALLY need to believe the 2H ramp story given negative LSD % revenue growth guided for 1Q24 to hit 8-10% FY24 revenue growth guidance. A lot of this also comes down to the macro. If the macro picks up this stock could work in a big way if it doesn't it could get ugly" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1773149608283165042) 2024-03-28T00:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a piece on why shorting is difficult and how we approach short selling including our risk management framework. The crux of the piece is that often the "best" shorts tend to be some of the most dangerous" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1775255715705401757) 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We use a three-part criteria that helps us identify deteriorating businesses with an imminent catalyst that will cause investors to realize they have grossly overpaid for the stock" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1775255717735535078) 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We discuss why frauds bad balance sheet shorts and expensive shorts can make for painful trades. Would love to hear others' thoughts and any pushback https://open.substack.com/pub/bristlemoon/p/the-perils-of-short-sellingr=6grhx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/bristlemoon/p/the-perils-of-short-sellingr=6grhx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1775255719765573725) 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@bubbleboy_08 Useful charts - thanks again for sharing them. Not a clear cut case for sure and admittedly Im not strong on the macro vs company specific analysis. Thanks for the kind words on the articles - will start the $PINS writeup soon" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1777079847455756671) 2024-04-07T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "From $PINS @ MS TMT: "It is exceedingly rare to see an app age down. Normally it's okay your user base ages. And then oh somebody else comes in and capture the next generation you sort of age out not we're age up. We've aged down right" $MTCH has done the same re Tinder" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1778000082333585748) 2024-04-10T10:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The fact that at the start of the year the market expected the first Fed rate cut to be March [----] and its now expected for November [----] probably tells you all you need to know about predicting Fed actions" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1778162232997912862) 2024-04-10T20:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Had a great time chatting with Henry Jennings on the On The Couch podcast about starting a hedge fund $MTCH $PINS and other topics. https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/on-the-couch/id1589002052i=1000652543595 https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/on-the-couch/id1589002052i=1000652543595" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1780016567360930161) 2024-04-15T23:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad):" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783263195999916054) 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 1.1M engagements "Unsurprisingly launching a fund is very hard. It requires execution on multiple fronts: building/managing a portfolio legal/operations buildout capital raising and building a brand and then eventually managing a team as the AUM scales. These roles require v diff skillsets" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783263198139060591) 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 56.4K engagements "A good analyst does not automatically convert to a good PM and being a good PM does not mean you will be a good leader of a business. Managing people is v different from managing a portfolio of stocks. Introspection and recognizing your strengths and weakness is key" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783263200110350579) 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 56.5K engagements "Service provider onboarding and other operational tasks can also take longer than envisioned. So even if you are executing very well other people you need to depend on to get the fund up and running can slow down the process" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1783263222403039720) 2024-04-24T22:34Z [----] followers, 23.8K engagements "The biggest gating factor to launching a fund is capital. Raising capital requires building trust often with people you've only recently met. This is a VERY different skillset from stock picking and building that trust falls squarely on the CIO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783263224324034719) 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 23.3K engagements "@ggreatgrandcub Amazing Can only imagine - a very difficult time to navigate" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1783303835395805372) 2024-04-25T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785054819247341765) 2024-04-29T21:13Z 10.3K followers, 90.6K engagements "$PINS is a high-quality network biz with a young (40% users are Gen Z) mostly female (67% of MAUs) userbase that has very high commercial intent (50% of users go to $PINS to shop). PINS is getting better at unlocking the value from this commercial intent https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054821587825022) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "On $PINS ads are content due to strong ad relevance that matches user purchase intent. User engagement and ad load are growing simultaneously (bullish); we believe there is significant headroom to boost ad load. Increasingly the ads being served are more profitable for PINS" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054824549007766) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PINS has refined its lower-funnel ad products and measurement solutions enabling a strong ROAS for advertisers which is helping attract incremental budget $ as advertisers chase these good returns. Previously the co. was thought of as a lower-value brand awareness tool" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054827757584593) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is helping $PINS gain share of core advertiser budgets (which are multiples of the experimental spend bucket PINS was historically confined to). Also these lower-funnel ads pay at a multiple of the rate of upper funnel ads = positive ad mix shift" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054830311903306) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "While it has taken time to ramp up $PINS's partnership with Amazon Ads could be a gamechanger. Ads from $AMZN's advertising clients will get automatically fed through to $PINS unlocking a wave of ad demand from the world's largest online retailer" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054832786587717) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AMZN Ads = $47bn of rev against $3bn of rev for $PINS. $AMZN's Ads biz is 15x larger than that of $PINS and growing faster. If $PINS can capture even a small amount of this ad demand it could significantly force up ad prices for $PINS and create a step change in rev growth" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054835340984704) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PINS has a huge international monetization opportunity. Consider that 80% of Pinterest users reside outside the U.S. but comprise only 20% of the companys revenue. Helping bridge the intl monetization gap is another growth driver that cld cause rev growth to accelerate" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054839338099055) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We note other potential growth drivers such as the Google Chrome cookies deprecation the U.S. TikTok ban $PINS expanding its male audience and extending into new verticals such as auto and travel" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054842479591593) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We dig into the historical financials of $PINS. In the 7yr period from FY16 to FY23 the co. more than 10x'd its revenue base. This is phenomenal growth and equates to a 39.3% revenue CAGR over that period" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054846254473531) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$META's rev ramp up is a good analog. There were periods of growth drastically decelerating and then aggressively reaccelerating along the way. Just remember that high growth is often lumpy and tends to surprise/be difficult to model" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054859823108358) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The full analysis is available in our report. We would love to hear thoughts from bulls and bears on $PINS and any feedback is welcomed" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785054865615405312) 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Very solid result from $PINS today. It was encouraging to see further evidence of the company capturing the LT opportunity which we detailed in the report below. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets: Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785421354759860627) 2024-04-30T21:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ken Griffin: In the U.S we trade almost 25% of all the equity that trades everyday$400 billion dollars of daily turnover across all asset classes here at Citadel Securities. From the In Good Company podcast" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785621518279729618) 2024-05-01T10:45Z 10.3K followers, 101.7K engagements "Immensely grateful for the 2k subs. I've met some incredible people via the newsletter who have been encouraging and helpful with sharing their own ideas and insights. As a recap we've written about $PINS $MTCH $RH $CPRT $BROS $TTD $EYE and $META. Feel free to subscribe" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1785799793819951207) 2024-05-01T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bristlemoon has removed the paywall for our report on $MTCH for those interested (see below)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1787954451254538497) 2024-05-07T21:15Z 10.3K followers, 49.6K engagements "You've got to respect $MTCH mgt sticking to their guns and running the biz vs optimizing for what the market wants (i.e. a Tinder payer growth inflection). If mgt wanted to make the stock go vertical they could drastically reduce the price of Tinder ALC items creating a MUCH higher chance of MAUs converting to payers. This would cause stronger Tinder payer growth (albeit in a low quality way). Instead and to their credit the mgt team is focusing on product enhancements and not playing tricks despite what must be immense pressure from investors" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1788518361703596176) 2024-05-09T10:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Recirculating this writeup with a few quick (and delayed) thoughts on the $PINS 1Q24 result. See below. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets: Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets:" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1792866709298438641) 2024-05-21T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "GTA: Vice City was released in [----] and was set in a fictional version of Miami in [----]. The [--] year gap since Vice Citys release is longer than the [--] year throwback period. In fact if it was released today Vice City would have been set in [----]. Let that sink in. $TTWO" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1807182106055123005) 2024-06-29T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is there anyone out there whos bearish on $PAR Would love to hear from you. DMs open" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1807380507807850561) 2024-06-30T11:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Alex__Pitti @SteveMNQ What are you basing that on I would have said the exact opposite to those assertions based on the analysis Ive done" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1807531167161504088) 2024-06-30T21:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on $PAR a company on the cusp of a profit inflection that we believe is not well understood by the market. PAR sells mission critical software to enterprise restaurant chains such as Dairy Queen Arby's and more recently Burger KIng" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810622660919140632) 2024-07-09T10:30Z 10.3K followers, 81.9K engagements "We are seeing early evidence of PARs pricing and cross-selling initiatives gaining traction with the incremental Operator Cloud ARR per incremental site increasing materially in recent periods" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1810622667932004510) 2024-07-09T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Pricing/cross-sell along with bolt-on M&A will support continued strong ARR growth which has 20x'd since [----] (off a small base). We think @SavneetS has done a remarkable job of turning around $PAR which we explore in our writeup" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1810622671392301215) 2024-07-09T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@acolner Toast is monetizing an SMB customer base primarily via payments. PAR is selling to enterprise restaurant chains" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1810865117464252573) 2024-07-10T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TASK acquisition has now closed for $PAR. A positive for the company to the extent that it will enable PAR to win international units as part of future deals" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1810868014281347131) 2024-07-10T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Kind of wild that there are currently zero direct flights between China and India the world's two most populous countries" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1812717989571268917) 2024-07-15T05:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Starboard Value going activist on $MTCH with a more than 6.5% stake according to the WSJ. Good to see others recognizing the value here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1812980026364862575) 2024-07-15T22:38Z 10.3K followers, 29.4K engagements "https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/starboard-builds-big-stake-in-tinder-parent-match-59b0a176 https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/starboard-builds-big-stake-in-tinder-parent-match-59b0a176" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1812980028596179013) 2024-07-15T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We recently removed the paywall to our $MTCH writeup. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/match-group-mtch-to-swipe-or-notr=6grhx https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/match-group-mtch-to-swipe-or-notr=6grhx" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1812980471535706624) 2024-07-15T22:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some thoughts on the $PINS short report by @ResearchGrizzly. I mean no disrespect to the author but the report is absolutely bogus. I don't like posting negative things but when a report makes bold assertions - such as "we believe Pinterest is in a long-term death spiral" and that the company is engaging in fraud - those are not statements that should be made lightly nor ones that should be made when they are predicated on questionable and wrongly-interpreted evidence. The depth and accuracy of the analysis fell far short of supporting the inflammatory and confident conclusions made by the" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607420855099888) 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, 14K engagements "As some quick context I like $PINS and have written a bullish report on the company. I am likely biased but I genuinely began reading the Grizzly Research short report with an open mind wanting to be proven wrong. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607423145193653) 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""Western markets provide 95.9% of Pinterests latest quarterly revenue. However all data reveals that Pinterest is very rapidly losing interest among U.S. consumers while competitors are growing. For U.S. users Pinterest engagement today is down to merely 18% of its peak depending on the platform and traffic estimator. The picture is similar for European and Canadian users." I would note two things with this comment from the short report: 1) 96% of revenue from UCan and Europe is because many of $PINS's intl mkts are lowly-monetized or unmonetized (so this is actually an enormous growth" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607425582035371) 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""In its recent earnings call Pinterest touts new advertising sales in the Rest of the World as a growth story. However in the long term profits from advertising in low-income countries can never compensate for Western advertising profits" This is an incorrect framing: $PINS isn't compensating or substituting RoW profits for Western market profits but rather the monetization of these international markets is additive. Sure you will probably see a negative mix effect of ARPU/user being diluted by MAU growth in these lower GDP/capita regions. But the key point is that these RoW ad dollars are" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607427800867212) 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""A January [----] survey by WebFX among [---] US-based marketers reveals that the market prices advertising space on Pinterest the lowest among competitorsad space on Facebook Instagram and Twitter are 2.5x to 5x more valuable and 20x to 30x on LinkedIn." Low CPMs are not necessarily an indicator of poor quality like a cheaply-priced consumer good might be. The low CPMs for $PINS's ad units have more recently been a function of an increase in ad inventory supply on PINS which has been driven by both higher engagement hours as well as higher ad load (both of which are difficult to achieve" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607430057345360) 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""However Pinterest only reports to investors two primary metrics for user engagement: monthly active users (MAUs) and average revenue per user (ARPU). With these metrics the trend of rapidly declining user contacts and increasing spam advertisement iswe believedeliberately hidden". This is incorrect. $PINS reports weekly active users (WAU) and we can gauge a proxy of user engagement by looking at the ratio of WAUs to MAUs. The short seller report rather incredibly makes no mention of this WAU metric. The ratio of WAU/MAU has actually increased in recent years (a positive) and remained stable" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607433651961942) 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""Web services like SEMrush (link) SpyFu (link) or Ahrefs (link) estimate website traffic and retain historical records. Fully reliable web traffic numbers are only available from the web host itself and are usually a carefully kept secret by website owners. Traffic estimates are in most cases either based on public user data from search engine providers or panel data from a large number of tracked test users. Both sets of data support our thesis that Pinterest is dying orin one specific caseeven fraudulently inflating its traffic numbers with click farms or bots." So in one sentence the short" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607436889923847) 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For example Grizzly looks at U.S. desktop organic traffic to Pinterest's website. First the datapoint is referencing an inflated base when users dramatically spiked (especially web users) due to Covid shifting user behaviors. Secondly this is referring to desktop website traffic at a time when $PINS has experienced a material user shift from website to mobile. The mix of mobile app MAUs has increased from 62% four years ago to over 80% today. And this is not to mention the fact that mobile app users have more than 2x the number of saves per MAU than that of web users (so they are likely far" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607441440743932) 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "But then the short report also presents a table showing mobile organic traffic by U.S. users to domains. While I have not seen the SEMrush data the author used my interpretation is that this data is showing the traffic for users who search for from their mobile device. If that is the case then this data is absolutely meaningless as many of those users could instead be accessing PINS via the Pinterest app which wouldn't be captured in this data. Given the abovementioned user pivot from web to mobile you'd actually expect to see a large decrease in web-based activity. http://Pinterest.com" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607445324669418) 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""It is worth noting that Co-Founders Evan Sharpe and Benjamin Silbermann as well as former CEO Todd Morgenfeld sold all their Pinterest shares." I would note that $PINS has two classes of shares (Class A and Class B). Each Class B common stock is convertible into one share of Class A common stock. Ben Silbermann appears to still be holding Class B shares meaning that he has not sold all of his Pinterest shares. Evan Sharp appears to still be holding Pinterest Class B shares as well" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814607449019851132) 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PINS had a lot of web users come to it during Covid. The report data is taking that inflated level of web users as the base and then comparing it to a current number thats lower due to PINSs user mix shifting heavily from web to mobile. So that web traffic data doesnt tell you much" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1814639425059758484) 2024-07-20T12:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published a new writeup on $AER a company benefiting from a generational supply/demand imbalance of aircraft. The shortage of aircraft is likely to last 5+yrs and immensely benefit AER yet the company trades at 1x P/B and an 8.8x P/E" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1816227267179339966) 2024-07-24T21:41Z 10.3K followers, 57.3K engagements "AER benefits from an equity multiple arbitrage opportunity whereby the company is selling older aircraft at large gains on book value and using these proceeds to aggressively buy back stock which is trading at a significantly lower book multiple. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/aercap-aer-an-unconventional-quality https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/aercap-aer-an-unconventional-quality" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1816227269414912202) 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "You're seeing the mkt tightness manifest in an increasing prevalence of lease extensions continued strong gains-on-sale for sold assets as well as elevated lease rates as airlines struggle to secure aircraft supply" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1816227277409296564) 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We dive into a discussion of where $AER should trade as a finco when considering ROE vs. cost of equity and how much of the value creation is via financial engineering. We also discuss the reasons why we think $AER is cheap in light of all the strong growth tailwinds" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1816227279355404475) 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jmail20201 Greater scale and a great management team that's very focused on shareholder value generation. No strong view on $AL though and not across that biz" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1816234081656742189) 2024-07-24T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AltayCapital Awesome Thanks for linking. Ill have a read. I like this sort of exposure in this mkt environment" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1816269165881348462) 2024-07-25T00:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting comments from Hermes earnings call that reflect some of the difficulties across the luxury space re the Chinese consumer. "Okay first things first. For our clients in China as far as I'm concerned it's the continuity of the transformation that started in [----]. People are not buying based on how much they earn from their income but based on their wealth. And therefore it's very much pegged to the real estate market. And we can see that there is less appetite for buying luxury goods and people are saving money more than spending money in China. So there's a drop in the footfall of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1816721891459236243) 2024-07-26T06:27Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Some thoughts on the $PINS 2Q24 result. While the Q2 result was strong the weak Q3 guidance cast a shadow over the stock which sold off c.14%. We give our thoughts on the result as well as incremental data points from the result that help frame the LT opportunity. A reminder that Bristlemoon is also raising newsletter prices on [--] August (EST)" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1818784774015906156) 2024-07-31T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its over for $MTCH 😂 This is High Yield Harrys Mom unfortunately he was trampled by this run club earlier this evening. We will miss him very much. https://t.co/sSaLjn7rcM This is High Yield Harrys Mom unfortunately he was trampled by this run club earlier this evening. We will miss him very much. https://t.co/sSaLjn7rcM" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1819211054733578603) 2024-08-02T03:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""In the Paris region nights booked for the dates of the Olympics through Q2 were more than double what they were the same time a year ago." - $ABNB. Stat shows the ability for supply to flex and meet demand spikes. Obv contrast re velocity of incremental supply vs hotels" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1821033521919750148) 2024-08-07T03:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$EYE guidance cut; stock tanking pre-market. We have previously written about National Vision Holdings (see below) and flagged a challenging path ahead for them. Not the balance sheet you'd want either for a weakening demand environment" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1821136743820882271) 2024-08-07T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@buysidebogey Totally - they're in a pretty bad spot with their balance sheet and exposure to the low income consumer. It made no sense w. the multiple it was on. The online players have likely had some impact but I wouldn't be able to quantify it" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1821141060334055479) 2024-08-07T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@HedgeyeComm It happens. Px move felt like an overreaction to the soft Q3 guide given nothing in the qtr drew away from the LT opp (Performance+ cld arguably accelerate lower funnel adoption for them)" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822026282345112000) 2024-08-09T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great points. While $PINS is still proving out its ability to execute on ad stack improvements (theyre doing a lot better here under Bill Ready) theres precedent re the immense benefit that can be derived from ad campaign automation by way of Performance Max and Advantage+. So unless they massively fumble something with the rollout its hard to see how this doesnt just make life a lot easier for advertisers and reduce the friction of them reallocating ad budgets towards PINS (which has good ROAS given the increasing inventory supply pushing down CPMs and now better measurement tools to give" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822038099301691399) 2024-08-09T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bristlemoon just published an update on $PAR following the 2Q24 result. It was a strong result w. c.24% organic ARR growth Q3 adj. EBITDA profitability guidance reaffirmed and a datapoint suggesting that PAR's customers are still comping at robust MSD % rates in Q2" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950429602587093) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We were concerned around whether slowing demand trends for restaurants might affect their technology adoption roadmaps. This remains a risk but the 5.5% SSS growth on average for Brink customers suggests they're holding up well (at present). https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corp-par-2q24-resultr=6grhx https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corp-par-2q24-resultr=6grhx" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950432278536489) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We would point out that the average $2m AUV restaurant unit is paying $PAR just 0.2% of their AUV for a mission-critical piece of software. The co has guided to 20-30% ARR growth going forward based on new logo wins LFL price increases and cross-selling" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950434866344341) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "On the call it was noted that attaching both Data Central and Payments to a Brink deal increases the ARR by 3x and a customer who buys all of $PAR's products will c.4x what the average PAR Operator Cloud customer is paying today. This multi-product approach is getting traction" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950437399523396) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The comments on $PAR's pipeline were exceptionally bullish (they have been for a number of quarters now): "We have again categorically never had so much pipeline particularly within Operator Cloud as we have today.We have not seen a slowdown in that pipeline"" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950440172134427) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We believe there is a path to $110m of adj. EBITDA in FY26. If the mkt capitalizes this at 30x ( $AGYS is at 66x rn) then you can back into a 23% IRR out to FY26. See the report for further details" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1822950442953036112) 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "How much conviction we can get on a stock is a function of how well we are able to answer questions that arise as the business is analyzed. As a rule of thumb the greater the number of unanswered or even unanswerable questions the lower your level of conviction is likely to be" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1826732934541529260) 2024-08-22T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A lack of conviction can stem from a variety of sources: 1) by failing to analyze the business or when the analysis performed is of a perfunctory nature; 2) the business is of a complexity or opacity that makes it harder to derive confidence from the analysis; and/or 3) when an investor has a proclivity to be influenced by external factors causing them to capriciously abandon their own fundamental opinions" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1826732937142042645) 2024-08-22T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Dollar General $DG saw its share price fall by a whopping 32% after reporting a dismal result. The DG earnings call commentary illustrated the bifurcation in health of the U.S. consumer with low income consumers in particularly struggling due to the continued pressures from inflation. The earnings call comments by DG CEO Todd Vasos (reproduced below) are alarming to say the least: ".our core customer who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales comes predominantly from households earning less than $35000 annually. Inflation has continued to negatively impact these households with" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1829269967340290269) 2024-08-29T21:28Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements "Insightful thoughts on $RH by @MattJMcClintock. Gary has an amazing track record with what hes achieved but this one very much feels like a trust me story that continues to get pushed out with lackluster numbers and a debt burden that should make some of the longs nervous. $RH Immediate Call Postmortem: Zaccone had the best question. How much of the product is new. And Gary dodged it like Neo from The Matrix. Then Simeon brings it back. And Gary dodged it once again. I find it amazing that Gary continues to talk up European expansion at the $RH Immediate Call Postmortem: Zaccone had the best" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1834527051388457439) 2024-09-13T09:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As an interesting counterpoint to U.S. Federal Reserve independence I recently learned that s11 of the RBA Act allows the Treasurer to override the Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions on interest rates. In short this is legislation that allows the Australian government to set monetary policy if they wanted to after jumping through a few hurdles. Remarkably even though this power has existed for almost [--] years s11 has never been used before. I wonder if U.S. Congress would have acted with similar restraint if they had the same veto power over the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1837980539716096423) 2024-09-22T22:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JEF comments re $CRM Agentforce: "We hosted [--] Salesforce partners for dinner all of whom noted that Agentforce is the real deal. We note that it is rare to hear partners this excited about a product and that partners were previously skeptical about Einstein Copilot. We believe Agentforce is more than a rebrand of Einstein Copilot and that the product will be a material contributor to growth over time"" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1837987843148591179) 2024-09-22T22:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@getrichslow00 @TegusHQ Yeah the black box nature of their biz leads to a valuation discount relative to the growth profile but then the market will periodically forget about that opacity discount and run ahead of itself (not saying that's the case now)" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1838135282941759677) 2024-09-23T08:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My notes on $PINS from a call with an agency that oversees $800m of annual digital spend across [---] companies in UCan + UK: - Spend across the agency's advertisers on PINS grew +29% YoY in 1Q24 +30% in 2Q24 and are forecast to grow +28% 3Q24E +30% 4Q24E +26% 1Q25E and +27% 2Q25E. The call expert said it wasn't anything necessarily wrong with PINS's ad performance it's just that things were going even better at $META and $GOOGL. - Pinterest's Performance+ product is like Advantage+ and Performance Max [--] years ago. Expert sees 20-30% time improvement in ad campaign creation and ROAS" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1838905240592228463) 2024-09-25T11:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IBKR has grown client accounts at a 35% CAGR over the past [--] years (we explore the sustainability of this) and client equity has grown at 2x the rate of discount brokerage/wealth management peers over the last decade. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/interactive-brokers-ibkr-hoovering https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/interactive-brokers-ibkr-hoovering" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876860412231729) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "IBKR generates revenue mainly through commissions on trading activity and net interest income on its income earning assets. Variable costs are limited to execution and clearing expenses and fixed costs are low due to extensive automation = industry-leading margins" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876863004295420) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We breakdown the clients that $IBKR services which sets the scene for understanding mix impacts and the future growth potential of client accounts and trading activity" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876866737148126) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We explore how low-cost encompasses more than just headline trading commissions and how execution quality matters more than low commissions and fees. IBKR indicates that on average total commissions and fees amount to just [--] bps of trade value with execution costs in the range of 2-5x higher. This means that for a client trading high volume (IBKR average trade size is north of $20000) a [--] bps slippage in execution which is just one cent on a $100 stock will eliminate any commission savings from a zero-commission broker" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876869958451243) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IBKR also pays the highest interest on idle cash and charges the lowest interest on margin loans. Indeed the interest on an $11000 cash balance can be enough to offset IBKRs commissions on nearly $400000 of trades" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876872588280275) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IBKR has a huge focus on technology and automation: 60-70% of employees are programmers and 90% of software is built in-house providing powerful advantages that we explore in the report" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876875113251077) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IBKR has largely automated its marketing function; of its [----] employees (2Q24) only 1% of them are in sales. IBKR's CAC per new account has declined by 70% over the past [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/GHadjia/status/1840876878875541809) 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@GHadjia George Hadjia
George Hadjia posts on X about $mtch, in the, meta, $fico the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +300%
- [--] Month [-------] +81%
- [--] Months [-------] +42%
- [--] Year [-------] -74%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Months [---] +66%
- [--] Year [---] -2.40%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +0.21%
- [--] Month [------] +0.55%
- [--] Months [------] +4.50%
- [--] Year [------] +11%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks technology brands finance cryptocurrencies social networks countries currencies travel destinations gaming exchanges
Social topic influence $mtch, in the, meta, $fico, $app, fund, $meta, $par, $fnd #1, business
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @itsdanielwu @billackman @reustlematt @buccocapital @ericseufert @zissoucapital @nypost @benthompson @bizbreakdowns @rebrandasy @pythiar @tmtmoats @buysidebogey @speedwellllc @stratechery @ericseuferts @lexfridmans @eugenengvcap @andrewchen @gavinsbaker
Top assets mentioned Match Group Inc (MTCH) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) AppLovin Corporation (APP) Metadium (META) Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) RH (RH) Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Fenerbahçe Token (FB) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) SuperWalk (GRND) Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) Bumble Inc. (BMBL) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) Unity Software Inc. (U) Spotify Technology (SPOT) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Dutch Bros, Inc. (BROS) Salesforce Inc (CRM)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
""$U is so expensive. It trades on 29x revenues". No not really. $U charges a US$1.8k/yr flat fee and 85% of users actually use a free version of the s/w which is almost at feature parity with the paid version. There is significant underpricing. 1/ THREAD"
X Link 2021-06-18T13:44Z 10.3K followers, [---] engagements
"$FB and $GOOGL dominating share of mind for attention on mobile. Mobile Traffic Worldwide $GOOG & $FB = 🤯 https://t.co/R6fLVhfWTt Mobile Traffic Worldwide $GOOG & $FB = 🤯 https://t.co/R6fLVhfWTt"
X Link 2021-09-27T13:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I imagine some pods are hurting rn. $U Some intraday whiplash 🙌"
X Link 2021-11-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is pretty sick. $META"
X Link 2022-10-19T15:42Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Redburn noted $ABNB is spending again on Google SEM for first time since 2019; red flag given prior mgt commentary talking up direct traffic and limited impact of prior performance spend and to the extent it's a sign of desperation/signal of a deteriorating demand environment"
X Link 2023-02-13T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SPOT coming for Ticketmaster $LYV only with an engaged user base and superior data. Would be surprised if SPOT couldnt damage Ticketmasters moat over the next decade. 840k concerts uploaded to Spotifys platform in [----] is a decent start"
X Link 2023-03-24T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Were going fromcuration to recommendation to generation. And I suspect it will be as big of a shift that you will eventually have to rethink your products - Gustav Sderstrm CTO $SPOT"
X Link 2023-05-21T13:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is what a wartime CEO looks like. $META"
X Link 2023-05-29T20:15Z 10.3K followers, 14.7K engagements
"Another great post by @MarcRuby. 32% of Coinbase revenues are at risk which could be closer to two-thirds of earnings given the higher margins on these revenue lines. Theres investments with hair on them and then theres $COIN. https://open.substack.com/pub/netinterest/p/whisky-and-oranges-and-coinbaser=6grhx&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post https://open.substack.com/pub/netinterest/p/whisky-and-oranges-and-coinbaser=6grhx&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post"
X Link 2023-06-10T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPOT is a great product but while there's LT potential the ability for it to convert its product leadership into solid economics for equityholders remains clouded. The Q2 result showed blowout MAU net adds but a continued inability to parlay this into profitable growth"
X Link 2023-07-27T03:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Kind of wild that $MTCH fell 83% peak-to-trough and is still down c.75% from the highs. Curious to hear from bulls/bears on the name. DMs are open"
X Link 2023-08-01T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"That's a very nice chart re Tinder rev/day accel $MTCH. Tinder price increases seem to be sticking (manageable payer drop off @ -4% & notably they're remaining in the ecosystem). This is big given that Tinder = 56% of revs and even % of earnings. Narrative inflection underway"
X Link 2023-08-02T05:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It was all there in Q1 to piece together the $FND guidance downgrade. While total FND sales were up 9.1% YoY in Q1 the +19% YoY Pro sales growth masked the fact that non-Pro sales which represent 58% of FNDs sales mix declined by 6.2% YoY"
X Link 2023-08-03T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FND result was a case of the best house in a (temporarily) bad neighborhood. Comps @ -6% YoY in Q2 decelerated vs. -3.3% in Q1. -6.6%/-5.5%/-6% Apr/May/Jun comps gave no signs of a turnaround. Implied mature stores comping at c.-8% YoY in Q2. Comp ticket decelerating hard"
X Link 2023-08-04T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Love this from MS back in [----]. $MTCH "First given the young age of the target demo and frequent unwillingness to pay monthly recurring fees for social services we believe Tinder will not have much success monetizing with a high-cost recurring monthly subscription offering""
X Link 2023-08-08T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Had to pick up some things from IKEA. Every time I visit part of me dies that its not a public company"
X Link 2023-08-16T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Maverick has [--] individuals on the investment team w. [--] of their [--] years avg experience being w. Maverick. If ever there was an indicator of an investment firm culture thats working"
X Link 2023-08-23T08:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""These multi-strats and this concept of vol targeting.the majority of the capital that is being deployed by these large firms are based.from a risk management perspective on the level of volatility that they create. And so as a result the lower the volatility in the world the more capital they're deploying.it is dictating a lot of the flows and the performance that we see on a daily basis in markets today. So I don't think I would understand what I'm seeing now if it wasn't for the fact that we worked at Citadel for a year and a half." "One of the things that struck me was it's not investing."
X Link 2023-09-07T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the investment community and we encourage criticism particularly well-reasoned pushback"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:19Z 10.3K followers, 48.8K engagements
"Below are some highlights from the report. If you got value from this analysis be sure to subscribe to get future stock deep dives. The next write-up will be on $CPRT"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Recent product and marketing changes at Tinder contributing to a reassuring top-of-funnel trajectory for Tinder as evidenced by a recent disclosure in the 2Q23 Shareholder Letter"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We look at disclosures from the Epic v Apple lawsuit to understand the economics of power users re app monetisation and what the potential is for $MTCH with its imminent super premium tier"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Introducing a super premium tier could be material to $MTCH's earnings although we also note drawbacks inherent in dating apps that put a ceiling on monetisation vs the world of gaming"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Documenting and sharing the insights of Bristlemoon is also useful for external parties in that it provides transparency around Bristlemoon as a fund. We do deep work and follow a rigorous process; our writeups will hopefully be evidence of that"
X Link 2023-09-18T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Bristlemoon Capital write-up on $MTCH can be viewed here. Feel free to subscribe if you got value from that article. The next report will be on $CPRT"
X Link 2023-09-18T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Pretty downbeat reporting on $DG w. stores in a state of disrepair/mismanaged. Sounds like a total circus"
X Link 2023-09-21T06:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"That's a pretty decent work perk NEW: @BillAckman tells me why hes still bullish on Manhattan his back to the office solution and the latest on his presidential picks @nypost https://t.co/lemw1zcoPx NEW: @BillAckman tells me why hes still bullish on Manhattan his back to the office solution and the latest on his presidential picks @nypost https://t.co/lemw1zcoPx"
X Link 2023-09-22T01:54Z 10.3K followers, 18.4K engagements
"These analyst vs market maker comments from Michael Platt are great and are just another example of how the very best traders respect the market in a way that sometimes contradicts value investing dogma"
X Link 2023-10-04T11:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I always learn a ton from these @eric_seufert and @benthompson conversations. A must read for anyone involved in the ads space. $U $APP $META $PINS"
X Link 2023-10-06T04:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Grindr stats are wild. "Our users produce about [---] million individual chat messages a day which is about [---] per daily active user. That's about 12x more than on WhatsApp." - CEO George Arison (GS conference)"
X Link 2023-10-08T22:30Z 10.3K followers, 20.9K engagements
"Bernstein spreading the word on $MTCH"
X Link 2023-10-23T19:02Z 10.3K followers, 44.4K engagements
"@borrowed_ideas An amazing body of work. Good stuff and looking forward to reading the $ENPH report"
X Link 2023-10-23T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Im stoked to have joined @ReustleMatt on Business Breakdowns to discuss $MTCH - a true battleground stock. Enjoyed breaking down the heavily contested MTCH with @GHadjia on @bizbreakdowns We cover industry dynamics business model dynamics and what broke the stock. Make sure to check out George's research as well. https://t.co/qtPqhHdUgh Enjoyed breaking down the heavily contested MTCH with @GHadjia on @bizbreakdowns We cover industry dynamics business model dynamics and what broke the stock. Make sure to check out George's research as well. https://t.co/qtPqhHdUgh"
X Link 2023-10-25T11:14Z 10.3K followers, 13.6K engagements
"@wolfofharcourt @ReustleMatt Fighting the good fight with $MTCH"
X Link 2023-10-25T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dating apps are hard to scale. Hinge is a great example and its success was by no means a fait accompli. People often forget that absent Match buying them in [----] Hinge had funding problems that were likely to have proven existential. Thoughts below in link"
X Link 2023-10-27T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMTMoats @ReustleMatt Thank you Glad you enjoyed it"
X Link 2023-10-27T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMTMoats @ReustleMatt Awesome - love to hear it Agree on $META analogy too"
X Link 2023-10-27T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@buysidebogey @CCM_Brett Payers of course matter but there are legitimate reasons behind the payer declines which should abate over coming qtrs. If payers are still declining at that point then the thesis was wrong"
X Link 2023-11-01T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MTCH acquiring Hinge for c.$25m in '18 is new info. Terms were undisclosed at the time of acquisition but we know that Hinge did $5.2m total rev in '18 against MTCH FY18 rev of $1.7bn. Hinge now on track to do $400m FY23 rev and is a multi-billion $ asset. Pretty good"
X Link 2023-11-01T02:58Z 10.3K followers, 246.1K engagements
"$MTCH looked okay on the surface; below the surface it was pretty bad. The Tinder net payers stabilization/inflection keeps getting pushed out and marked a significant degradation vs. prior comments (see below). Some thoughts"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z 10.3K followers, 42.9K engagements
"Given Tinder net adds are STILL negative ex. US pricing and weekly subs impact you're banking on product refresh and marketing initiatives to bring about payer growth which is MUCH harder to underwrite vs. a known impact abating. That shifts the thesis"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MTCH isn't ownable for a lot of investors until there's credible evidence of Tinder payers growing again (or they might own it just at a cigar butt multiple). The problem is that the Tinder payer # trajectory has disappointed and top-of-funnel issues remain"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Mgt is still guiding to improving sequential Tinder payer growth and HSD % FY24 Tinder rev growth. This was in the context of CFO guiding to only 1-2 ppts of S&M -ve mgn impact in FY24. The problem is the mkt doesn't believe this"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Mgt have shown that they are poor at predicting their biz and/or it's difficult to predict and more macro exposed than prev thought. Dating apps have never gone through a proper eco cycle and w. draining US savings rates US student loan payments resuming"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"and higher credit card delinquencies there is more financial stress to the consumer that will likely impact $MTCH (particularly the ALC rev component). This comment on the Q3 call re macro was ominous: "we're increasingly nervous about what's to come in the months ahead.""
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tough to know but we will get additional color when $BMBL reports. Mgt is clearly highly cognizant of not blowing out mktg spend and are redirecting it to Tinder & Hinge from other brands. Also not great if they're starving other brands of mktg $"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's possible $MTCH is a value trap although it's too early to conclude this definitively. The stock is optically cheap at 9x fwd P/E and even if you assume 3% Tinder payer declines for the rest of time + a 2ppt step up in S&M mgn you can stil get $4 FCF/sh in FY27"
X Link 2023-11-02T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a report on $CPRT one of the best businesses we've ever encountered (link below). The problem is that the mkt is seemingly missing the pricing-led high-incremental mgn growth of the last few years being replaced by relatively lower mgn vol growth"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z 10.3K followers, 114.5K engagements
"This along with relatively stronger growth from the much lower mgn international biz will likely see mgns struggle to hold these elevated levels. The stock is richly valued and falls far short of our return thresholds"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We look at the mechanics of $CPRT's biz starting with how a total loss for a vehicle is determined following an automotive accident"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We then detail how Copart processes these vehicles and the steps involved"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPRT's value-add revolves around being able to get the highest price for an auctioned vehicle (on behalf of mostly insurance company sellers) a function of Copart's strong buyer liquidity"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We drill into the financials to understand key metrics such as ROIC. It is safe to say that $CPRT's historical ROIC and ROIIC figures have been incredible w. a 28% average ROIC over the last decade"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It is important to note that volume gains from increases in the total loss frequency rate will experience diminishing returns making future volume growth from each incremental ppt of TLF less impactful"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We undertook an illustrative analysis of the volume vs ASP dynamics particularly given some of the interplay between fixed and variable Copart fee components. This has important implications for future revenue growth and mgns for the business"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPRT is richly valued and fails to meet our return thresholds. The current price means that under reasonable assumptions investors should expect a HSD % IRR with very aggressive assumptions required to push that IRR up to 15%"
X Link 2023-11-03T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BarrySchwartzBW Some thoughts on $CPRT"
X Link 2023-11-03T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DimitryNakhla @BritishDividend Some thoughts on $CPRT"
X Link 2023-11-03T21:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Have started going through $RH for the next writeup. There are some gems in the call transcripts"
X Link 2023-11-23T01:38Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements
"$MTCH now targeting QoQ Tinder payer growth in mid-24' and YoY growth by YE-24' Wells Fargo TMT conference. Really need to bank on the product refresh helping the top-of-funnel trends which according to CFO are "slowly bouncing back". Co now talking about a heavy mktg push"
X Link 2023-12-04T22:45Z 10.3K followers, 22K engagements
"Macro is having an impact"
X Link 2023-12-04T22:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$MTCH doesn't plan to expand Hinge beyond Europe in [----]. Asia will be a [----] move. "The overlap between Tinder and Hinge is not nearly as high as I think people think it is. But Hinge really resonating is having some knock-on effects to Tinder. I think it's hard to deny that.""
X Link 2023-12-04T22:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CFO on current Px: "And so when I look at the $32-ish stock price and I know that all those factors are out there from a financial and operating metric standpoint I struggle to understand kind of where people's heads are at.""
X Link 2023-12-04T22:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"21hrs in and the GTA VI trailer has c.85m YT views. For reference the original GTA V trailer [--] yrs ago has 99m lifetime views. There's arguably no entertainment property in the world that has a better pre-release hype cycle than what Rockstar does with GTA franchise. $TTWO"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BLyons151 Thanks Brad. Same to you - happy holidays"
X Link 2023-12-24T23:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This was an eventful year and Im incredibly grateful: - I resigned from my job in April - I moved from NYC back to Sydney in July - I launched the Bristlemoon Substack in September and have close to [----] subs - I released an album on Spotify (see below) - Im preparing to launch a global L/S fund next year. Wishing all of you a productive and prosperous 2024"
X Link 2023-12-26T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is part of the "A Short We Like" series we will run on an ongoing basis providing insights into the Bristlemoon short book"
X Link 2024-01-08T23:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Around 2/3 of EYE's customers are uninsured: they must reach into their own pockets to fund eyecare purchases. We believe there's a risk that eyewear purchase cycles elongate as these low income consumers stretch the dollars they have by delaying eyewear purchases"
X Link 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We also expect an outsized impact on FCF given the de minimis capex attributable to WMT stores (which are physical located inside WMT). With 15% of earnings falling away this could cause a 50% FCF decline absent a corresponding decline in capex"
X Link 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Check out the full report for further details. If you enjoyed this research please be sure to subscribe and check out our other reports on $MTCH $CPRT and $RH"
X Link 2024-01-08T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Very much feels as though Threads throttles the distribution of posts with external links (even when accounting for differences in follower sizes). Seems short-sighted for $META to be penalizing threads that have links. Yes they end up retaining attention but Threads is arguably more valuable as a content surfacing mechanism where readers can discover long-form content that would be unsuitable if decomposed into a post on Threads"
X Link 2024-01-09T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Others recognizing the value in $MTCH WSJ: Tinder Owner Match Draws Elliott Investment"
X Link 2024-01-09T03:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Linking here our insights on $MTCH following the announcement of Elliott building a stake in the company. I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the investment community and we encourage criticism particularly well-reasoned pushback. https://t.co/IxPGGFgEiP I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the"
X Link 2024-01-09T11:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bristlemoon Capital just hit [----] subscribers. Hugely thankful for all the support and excited for a big year ahead writing content that is hopefully interesting and valuable. We've written about $MTCH $CPRT $RH $META $EYE and the next writeup will be on $TTD. Stay tuned"
X Link 2024-01-11T21:30Z 10.3K followers, 13.3K engagements
"Interesting comments from Tegus call around AI automating the creative for ad campaigns and how this unlocks $ for advertisers that can be plowed back into more ads. Tailwind for $META which is abstracting away more and more of the ad campaign into their black box"
X Link 2024-01-18T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A quantification of the click-to-Messenger opp for $META. Advertisers paying c.$40 CPMs for CTM ads (v. expensive vs. other formats) but this works out as $2 per chat relationship half of which become recurring. So $4 spend to potentially boost customer LTV by $40 = 10x ROAS"
X Link 2024-01-19T21:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y We just published some thoughts on the $MTCH result"
X Link 2024-02-02T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon published its thoughts on the $MTCH result. The key question remains unchanged: will Tinder be able to stabilize and grow users/payers. We admit the path to mgt's 3Q24 +ve QoQ Tinder net payers and 4Q24 Tinder YoY payer growth remains hazy and banks on product/mktg initiatives gaining traction. We break down the numbers and provide an update on our thoughts touching on the degradation in Tinder payer inflection guidance/expectations Tinder's updated product roadmap implications from an "always-on" marketing stance potential plans that Elliott could try and implement and capital"
X Link 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here is the link to our original report"
X Link 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And here is a link to an ancillary article on why Hinge would have gone bankrupt if $MTCH didn't acquire it following our appearance on the Business Breakdowns podcast"
X Link 2024-02-02T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SNAP - like clockwork"
X Link 2024-02-06T21:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Speedwell_LLC Exactly $SNAP doesnt hold a candle to $META. Theyre not even in the same galaxy"
X Link 2024-02-06T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad channels (CTV + retail media) but we question the extent to which TTD will benefit explore the likely take rate pressure and other risks such as"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"signal loss from cookie deprecation risks around the scalability and regulatory scrutiny re $TTD's alt. ID called UID2 as well as supply path optimization risks. We do our best to cut through the complexity and provide a balanced view"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TTD is one of the greatest stock compounding stories achieving a 40x stock return in [--] years since it listed"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We set the stage by exploring the various programmatic buying models and give an overview of the ad tech industry participants"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We then explore $TTD's positioning as a programmatic ad buying platform. As a pure-play DSP TTD doesnt own or operate any of its own ad inventory. Instead it obtains a supply of omnichannel inventory from over [---] directly integrated ad exchanges and SSPs"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We give a brief recap of $TTD's phenomenal financial performance. Since the companys IPO in [----] it has compounded gross spend and revenue at a 38% CAGR handily outgrowing the broader open programmatic market and taking [---] bps of market share between [----] and 2022"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We dive into the technical details of $TTD's platform. Bid factoring is TTDs original technical claim to fame and allows traders to apply a factor or weight to elements of the bidstream such as ad size site device etc. that are more likely to produce the best ad performance"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We discuss $TTD's competitive differentiation looking at the companies scale independence close relationship with agencies and greater transparency and control for ad buyers"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We challenge $TTD mgt's assessment of the CTV opportunity and highlight risks around walled gardening and agencies going direct to publishers. There is also an outstanding question on what % of CTV ad buying shifts to programmatic biddable which informs CPMs and fees for $TTD"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There are material differences in fees for the different forms of programmatic ad buying and we believe that this will create a negative mix headwind for $TTD as CTV growth continues to outpace the remainder of TTD's business"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We strongly push back on mgt's assertion that CTV CPMs as a rule of thumb are higher for biddable inventory than guaranteed inventory. Their investor day disclosures were shall we say massaged"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We then explore the retail media opportunity; we are skeptical that the opportunity for $TTD is as large as mgt paints it to be due to a lack of capabilities to serve onsite retail media"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We call into question the sustainability of $TTD's take rate due to the impact of CTV mix as well as 3rd party cookie deprecation"
X Link 2024-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TTD is a solid biz but we have a number of reservations which we felt were not reflected in the share price (see our report). This was before the 20%+ AH price jump after the Q4 result. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad channels (CTV + retail media) but we question the extent to which TTD will benefit explore the likely take rate pressure and other risks such as. https://t.co/pvaNNqRfr4 Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad"
X Link 2024-02-15T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Finally getting around to the @eric_seufert interview on @stratechery. Great stuff as always and a clear explanation of the mechanics and significance of the $META and $AMZN partnership"
X Link 2024-02-19T22:02Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Had dinner at the parents' place last night. Afterwards dad sat me down and put on an $NVDA Jensen keynote. "How did you miss this one" he whispers. A sign of the times"
X Link 2024-02-26T00:22Z 10.3K followers, 18.9K engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y Agree. I could spend weeks/months digging into the tech/opp for $NVDA but even then I feel like I'd struggle to underwrite the future for the biz with real conviction. Parsing out the cyclical/structural is just too hard for me vs spending time on other opps out there"
X Link 2024-02-26T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$U: "I mean on the Grow side we're just seeing a more intense competitive environment right And you've all seen some of our competitors report numbers. Some of them have been better than ours. So it's just been a more intense and some of the innovation they've brought to the market has been strong." Code for $APP is crushing it and we've badly dropped the ball"
X Link 2024-02-27T04:52Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements
"$MTCH not looking as bad after $BMBL result. They raised similar issues around the lack of innovation for the Bumble App leading to less traction with Gen Z users as well as a weak macro backdrop having an impact particularly amongst younger users. The big negative for BMBL was the U.S. top-of-funnel weakness. In this sense BMBL feels analogous to MTCH but just on a delayed timeline in terms of their product refresh (funnily enough BMBL is the mirror image of MTCH in that they are growing paying users strongly but ARPU is declining). For both stocks there has been an increasing need to"
X Link 2024-02-28T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Stoked to have appeared on @StockJabber's Sunday Idea's Brunch to discuss Bristlemoon Capital $MTCH $EYE and why I'm launching a global long/short fund from Sydney Australia"
X Link 2024-03-03T20:59Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements
"Wild that $APP lobbed a bid in for $U in August [----]. How things have changed. From @eric_seufert's MDM piece (@MobileDevMemo): "As I noted when AppLovins bid to acquire Unity issued following Unitys announcement that it would merge with ironSource was rejected the three public mobile gaming advertising networks had roughly similar market share before Q4 [----]. In its most recent earnings release Unitys advertising revenue of $319MM (representing the combined revenue of Unity and ironSource) stood at 55% of AppLovins.""
X Link 2024-03-07T05:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A striking reminder that not all fortunes are created with equal levels of morality. Soros's behavior is as abhorrent as his total lack of any remorse. Another example of a faulty moral compass is the story told by @BillAckman on his recent appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast about Carl Icahn failing to honor the "schmuck insurance" deal he made when Ackman was running Gotham Partners. Gotham Partners owned a big stake in Hallwood Realty Partners. It needed an activist to unlock the value. Gotham Partners was winding down at the time and didn't have the resources to pursue this opportunity"
X Link 2024-03-13T00:49Z 10.3K followers, 124.9K engagements
"He did and he also had a fiduciary duty when acting on behalf of his clients. I think there's also some merit that these currencies might have broken regardless of his trading. But the reasoning that "if I didn't do it somebody else would have" while true is dangerous. If you flip it it's hard to mount a case that Soros is a shining beacon of morality"
X Link 2024-03-13T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While $WSM is being used as a read-through for $RH my view is theres more thats idiosyncratic to the $RH story than not with the lineup refresh and associated GM risk. See our published report for more details. Bristlemoon published a report on $RH a business that we like but one we believe has been significantly overearning in recent years. The normalization of the COVID demand bump is coinciding with a period where RH is refreshing 80% of its product assortment the largest Bristlemoon published a report on $RH a business that we like but one we believe has been significantly overearning in"
X Link 2024-03-13T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks for the shoutout mate I think $TTD is a solid biz. Its just that ad tech is inherently opaque and its hard to get confidence around the economics (namely take rates) for CTV/retail media + diff industry dynamics in these mkts re publisher concentration. Val doesnt give a mgn of safety for that uncertainty"
X Link 2024-03-16T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (16k words) on Dutch Bros $BROS a U.S. drive-thru coffee chain that is like a cross between $SBUX and Dairy Queen. BROS has [---] shops and is targeting [----] shops over the next 10-15 years (an 11-17% CAGR). We explore issues such as"
X Link 2024-03-19T21:40Z 10.3K followers, 97.9K engagements
"Just remember that Facebook in [----] had similar revenues ($777m) to $RDDT today yet had 34% operating margins vs -17% for Reddit. The lack of cost discipline at $RDDT is truly astonishing. For every dollar of revenue theyre paying 55c for R&D and I cant figure out what for You maniacs are paying $8bn for this $RDDT https://t.co/C5ruHZZvCI You maniacs are paying $8bn for this $RDDT https://t.co/C5ruHZZvCI"
X Link 2024-03-21T20:21Z 10.3K followers, 70.7K engagements
"Consensus GM numbers for next year look VERY optimistic. I find it very hard to get there"
X Link 2024-03-28T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You REALLY need to believe the 2H ramp story given negative LSD % revenue growth guided for 1Q24 to hit 8-10% FY24 revenue growth guidance. A lot of this also comes down to the macro. If the macro picks up this stock could work in a big way if it doesn't it could get ugly"
X Link 2024-03-28T00:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a piece on why shorting is difficult and how we approach short selling including our risk management framework. The crux of the piece is that often the "best" shorts tend to be some of the most dangerous"
X Link 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We use a three-part criteria that helps us identify deteriorating businesses with an imminent catalyst that will cause investors to realize they have grossly overpaid for the stock"
X Link 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We discuss why frauds bad balance sheet shorts and expensive shorts can make for painful trades. Would love to hear others' thoughts and any pushback https://open.substack.com/pub/bristlemoon/p/the-perils-of-short-sellingr=6grhx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/bristlemoon/p/the-perils-of-short-sellingr=6grhx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2024-04-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bubbleboy_08 Useful charts - thanks again for sharing them. Not a clear cut case for sure and admittedly Im not strong on the macro vs company specific analysis. Thanks for the kind words on the articles - will start the $PINS writeup soon"
X Link 2024-04-07T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"From $PINS @ MS TMT: "It is exceedingly rare to see an app age down. Normally it's okay your user base ages. And then oh somebody else comes in and capture the next generation you sort of age out not we're age up. We've aged down right" $MTCH has done the same re Tinder"
X Link 2024-04-10T10:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The fact that at the start of the year the market expected the first Fed rate cut to be March [----] and its now expected for November [----] probably tells you all you need to know about predicting Fed actions"
X Link 2024-04-10T20:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Had a great time chatting with Henry Jennings on the On The Couch podcast about starting a hedge fund $MTCH $PINS and other topics. https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/on-the-couch/id1589002052i=1000652543595 https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/on-the-couch/id1589002052i=1000652543595"
X Link 2024-04-15T23:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad):"
X Link 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 1.1M engagements
"Unsurprisingly launching a fund is very hard. It requires execution on multiple fronts: building/managing a portfolio legal/operations buildout capital raising and building a brand and then eventually managing a team as the AUM scales. These roles require v diff skillsets"
X Link 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 56.4K engagements
"A good analyst does not automatically convert to a good PM and being a good PM does not mean you will be a good leader of a business. Managing people is v different from managing a portfolio of stocks. Introspection and recognizing your strengths and weakness is key"
X Link 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 56.5K engagements
"Service provider onboarding and other operational tasks can also take longer than envisioned. So even if you are executing very well other people you need to depend on to get the fund up and running can slow down the process"
X Link 2024-04-24T22:34Z [----] followers, 23.8K engagements
"The biggest gating factor to launching a fund is capital. Raising capital requires building trust often with people you've only recently met. This is a VERY different skillset from stock picking and building that trust falls squarely on the CIO"
X Link 2024-04-24T22:34Z 10.3K followers, 23.3K engagements
"@ggreatgrandcub Amazing Can only imagine - a very difficult time to navigate"
X Link 2024-04-25T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets:"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z 10.3K followers, 90.6K engagements
"$PINS is a high-quality network biz with a young (40% users are Gen Z) mostly female (67% of MAUs) userbase that has very high commercial intent (50% of users go to $PINS to shop). PINS is getting better at unlocking the value from this commercial intent https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On $PINS ads are content due to strong ad relevance that matches user purchase intent. User engagement and ad load are growing simultaneously (bullish); we believe there is significant headroom to boost ad load. Increasingly the ads being served are more profitable for PINS"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PINS has refined its lower-funnel ad products and measurement solutions enabling a strong ROAS for advertisers which is helping attract incremental budget $ as advertisers chase these good returns. Previously the co. was thought of as a lower-value brand awareness tool"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is helping $PINS gain share of core advertiser budgets (which are multiples of the experimental spend bucket PINS was historically confined to). Also these lower-funnel ads pay at a multiple of the rate of upper funnel ads = positive ad mix shift"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"While it has taken time to ramp up $PINS's partnership with Amazon Ads could be a gamechanger. Ads from $AMZN's advertising clients will get automatically fed through to $PINS unlocking a wave of ad demand from the world's largest online retailer"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AMZN Ads = $47bn of rev against $3bn of rev for $PINS. $AMZN's Ads biz is 15x larger than that of $PINS and growing faster. If $PINS can capture even a small amount of this ad demand it could significantly force up ad prices for $PINS and create a step change in rev growth"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PINS has a huge international monetization opportunity. Consider that 80% of Pinterest users reside outside the U.S. but comprise only 20% of the companys revenue. Helping bridge the intl monetization gap is another growth driver that cld cause rev growth to accelerate"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We note other potential growth drivers such as the Google Chrome cookies deprecation the U.S. TikTok ban $PINS expanding its male audience and extending into new verticals such as auto and travel"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We dig into the historical financials of $PINS. In the 7yr period from FY16 to FY23 the co. more than 10x'd its revenue base. This is phenomenal growth and equates to a 39.3% revenue CAGR over that period"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$META's rev ramp up is a good analog. There were periods of growth drastically decelerating and then aggressively reaccelerating along the way. Just remember that high growth is often lumpy and tends to surprise/be difficult to model"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The full analysis is available in our report. We would love to hear thoughts from bulls and bears on $PINS and any feedback is welcomed"
X Link 2024-04-29T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Very solid result from $PINS today. It was encouraging to see further evidence of the company capturing the LT opportunity which we detailed in the report below. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets: Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and"
X Link 2024-04-30T21:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ken Griffin: In the U.S we trade almost 25% of all the equity that trades everyday$400 billion dollars of daily turnover across all asset classes here at Citadel Securities. From the In Good Company podcast"
X Link 2024-05-01T10:45Z 10.3K followers, 101.7K engagements
"Immensely grateful for the 2k subs. I've met some incredible people via the newsletter who have been encouraging and helpful with sharing their own ideas and insights. As a recap we've written about $PINS $MTCH $RH $CPRT $BROS $TTD $EYE and $META. Feel free to subscribe"
X Link 2024-05-01T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bristlemoon has removed the paywall for our report on $MTCH for those interested (see below)"
X Link 2024-05-07T21:15Z 10.3K followers, 49.6K engagements
"You've got to respect $MTCH mgt sticking to their guns and running the biz vs optimizing for what the market wants (i.e. a Tinder payer growth inflection). If mgt wanted to make the stock go vertical they could drastically reduce the price of Tinder ALC items creating a MUCH higher chance of MAUs converting to payers. This would cause stronger Tinder payer growth (albeit in a low quality way). Instead and to their credit the mgt team is focusing on product enhancements and not playing tricks despite what must be immense pressure from investors"
X Link 2024-05-09T10:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Recirculating this writeup with a few quick (and delayed) thoughts on the $PINS 1Q24 result. See below. Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets: Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets:"
X Link 2024-05-21T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"GTA: Vice City was released in [----] and was set in a fictional version of Miami in [----]. The [--] year gap since Vice Citys release is longer than the [--] year throwback period. In fact if it was released today Vice City would have been set in [----]. Let that sink in. $TTWO"
X Link 2024-06-29T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is there anyone out there whos bearish on $PAR Would love to hear from you. DMs open"
X Link 2024-06-30T11:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Alex__Pitti @SteveMNQ What are you basing that on I would have said the exact opposite to those assertions based on the analysis Ive done"
X Link 2024-06-30T21:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on $PAR a company on the cusp of a profit inflection that we believe is not well understood by the market. PAR sells mission critical software to enterprise restaurant chains such as Dairy Queen Arby's and more recently Burger KIng"
X Link 2024-07-09T10:30Z 10.3K followers, 81.9K engagements
"We are seeing early evidence of PARs pricing and cross-selling initiatives gaining traction with the incremental Operator Cloud ARR per incremental site increasing materially in recent periods"
X Link 2024-07-09T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Pricing/cross-sell along with bolt-on M&A will support continued strong ARR growth which has 20x'd since [----] (off a small base). We think @SavneetS has done a remarkable job of turning around $PAR which we explore in our writeup"
X Link 2024-07-09T10:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@acolner Toast is monetizing an SMB customer base primarily via payments. PAR is selling to enterprise restaurant chains"
X Link 2024-07-10T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TASK acquisition has now closed for $PAR. A positive for the company to the extent that it will enable PAR to win international units as part of future deals"
X Link 2024-07-10T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Kind of wild that there are currently zero direct flights between China and India the world's two most populous countries"
X Link 2024-07-15T05:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Starboard Value going activist on $MTCH with a more than 6.5% stake according to the WSJ. Good to see others recognizing the value here"
X Link 2024-07-15T22:38Z 10.3K followers, 29.4K engagements
"https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/starboard-builds-big-stake-in-tinder-parent-match-59b0a176 https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/starboard-builds-big-stake-in-tinder-parent-match-59b0a176"
X Link 2024-07-15T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We recently removed the paywall to our $MTCH writeup. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/match-group-mtch-to-swipe-or-notr=6grhx https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/match-group-mtch-to-swipe-or-notr=6grhx"
X Link 2024-07-15T22:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some thoughts on the $PINS short report by @ResearchGrizzly. I mean no disrespect to the author but the report is absolutely bogus. I don't like posting negative things but when a report makes bold assertions - such as "we believe Pinterest is in a long-term death spiral" and that the company is engaging in fraud - those are not statements that should be made lightly nor ones that should be made when they are predicated on questionable and wrongly-interpreted evidence. The depth and accuracy of the analysis fell far short of supporting the inflammatory and confident conclusions made by the"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, 14K engagements
"As some quick context I like $PINS and have written a bullish report on the company. I am likely biased but I genuinely began reading the Grizzly Research short report with an open mind wanting to be proven wrong. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/pinterest-pins-not-just-window-shopping"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Western markets provide 95.9% of Pinterests latest quarterly revenue. However all data reveals that Pinterest is very rapidly losing interest among U.S. consumers while competitors are growing. For U.S. users Pinterest engagement today is down to merely 18% of its peak depending on the platform and traffic estimator. The picture is similar for European and Canadian users." I would note two things with this comment from the short report: 1) 96% of revenue from UCan and Europe is because many of $PINS's intl mkts are lowly-monetized or unmonetized (so this is actually an enormous growth"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""In its recent earnings call Pinterest touts new advertising sales in the Rest of the World as a growth story. However in the long term profits from advertising in low-income countries can never compensate for Western advertising profits" This is an incorrect framing: $PINS isn't compensating or substituting RoW profits for Western market profits but rather the monetization of these international markets is additive. Sure you will probably see a negative mix effect of ARPU/user being diluted by MAU growth in these lower GDP/capita regions. But the key point is that these RoW ad dollars are"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""A January [----] survey by WebFX among [---] US-based marketers reveals that the market prices advertising space on Pinterest the lowest among competitorsad space on Facebook Instagram and Twitter are 2.5x to 5x more valuable and 20x to 30x on LinkedIn." Low CPMs are not necessarily an indicator of poor quality like a cheaply-priced consumer good might be. The low CPMs for $PINS's ad units have more recently been a function of an increase in ad inventory supply on PINS which has been driven by both higher engagement hours as well as higher ad load (both of which are difficult to achieve"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""However Pinterest only reports to investors two primary metrics for user engagement: monthly active users (MAUs) and average revenue per user (ARPU). With these metrics the trend of rapidly declining user contacts and increasing spam advertisement iswe believedeliberately hidden". This is incorrect. $PINS reports weekly active users (WAU) and we can gauge a proxy of user engagement by looking at the ratio of WAUs to MAUs. The short seller report rather incredibly makes no mention of this WAU metric. The ratio of WAU/MAU has actually increased in recent years (a positive) and remained stable"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""Web services like SEMrush (link) SpyFu (link) or Ahrefs (link) estimate website traffic and retain historical records. Fully reliable web traffic numbers are only available from the web host itself and are usually a carefully kept secret by website owners. Traffic estimates are in most cases either based on public user data from search engine providers or panel data from a large number of tracked test users. Both sets of data support our thesis that Pinterest is dying orin one specific caseeven fraudulently inflating its traffic numbers with click farms or bots." So in one sentence the short"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For example Grizzly looks at U.S. desktop organic traffic to Pinterest's website. First the datapoint is referencing an inflated base when users dramatically spiked (especially web users) due to Covid shifting user behaviors. Secondly this is referring to desktop website traffic at a time when $PINS has experienced a material user shift from website to mobile. The mix of mobile app MAUs has increased from 62% four years ago to over 80% today. And this is not to mention the fact that mobile app users have more than 2x the number of saves per MAU than that of web users (so they are likely far"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"But then the short report also presents a table showing mobile organic traffic by U.S. users to domains. While I have not seen the SEMrush data the author used my interpretation is that this data is showing the traffic for users who search for from their mobile device. If that is the case then this data is absolutely meaningless as many of those users could instead be accessing PINS via the Pinterest app which wouldn't be captured in this data. Given the abovementioned user pivot from web to mobile you'd actually expect to see a large decrease in web-based activity. http://Pinterest.com"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""It is worth noting that Co-Founders Evan Sharpe and Benjamin Silbermann as well as former CEO Todd Morgenfeld sold all their Pinterest shares." I would note that $PINS has two classes of shares (Class A and Class B). Each Class B common stock is convertible into one share of Class A common stock. Ben Silbermann appears to still be holding Class B shares meaning that he has not sold all of his Pinterest shares. Evan Sharp appears to still be holding Pinterest Class B shares as well"
X Link 2024-07-20T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PINS had a lot of web users come to it during Covid. The report data is taking that inflated level of web users as the base and then comparing it to a current number thats lower due to PINSs user mix shifting heavily from web to mobile. So that web traffic data doesnt tell you much"
X Link 2024-07-20T12:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published a new writeup on $AER a company benefiting from a generational supply/demand imbalance of aircraft. The shortage of aircraft is likely to last 5+yrs and immensely benefit AER yet the company trades at 1x P/B and an 8.8x P/E"
X Link 2024-07-24T21:41Z 10.3K followers, 57.3K engagements
"AER benefits from an equity multiple arbitrage opportunity whereby the company is selling older aircraft at large gains on book value and using these proceeds to aggressively buy back stock which is trading at a significantly lower book multiple. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/aercap-aer-an-unconventional-quality https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/aercap-aer-an-unconventional-quality"
X Link 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You're seeing the mkt tightness manifest in an increasing prevalence of lease extensions continued strong gains-on-sale for sold assets as well as elevated lease rates as airlines struggle to secure aircraft supply"
X Link 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We dive into a discussion of where $AER should trade as a finco when considering ROE vs. cost of equity and how much of the value creation is via financial engineering. We also discuss the reasons why we think $AER is cheap in light of all the strong growth tailwinds"
X Link 2024-07-24T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jmail20201 Greater scale and a great management team that's very focused on shareholder value generation. No strong view on $AL though and not across that biz"
X Link 2024-07-24T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AltayCapital Awesome Thanks for linking. Ill have a read. I like this sort of exposure in this mkt environment"
X Link 2024-07-25T00:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting comments from Hermes earnings call that reflect some of the difficulties across the luxury space re the Chinese consumer. "Okay first things first. For our clients in China as far as I'm concerned it's the continuity of the transformation that started in [----]. People are not buying based on how much they earn from their income but based on their wealth. And therefore it's very much pegged to the real estate market. And we can see that there is less appetite for buying luxury goods and people are saving money more than spending money in China. So there's a drop in the footfall of"
X Link 2024-07-26T06:27Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Some thoughts on the $PINS 2Q24 result. While the Q2 result was strong the weak Q3 guidance cast a shadow over the stock which sold off c.14%. We give our thoughts on the result as well as incremental data points from the result that help frame the LT opportunity. A reminder that Bristlemoon is also raising newsletter prices on [--] August (EST)"
X Link 2024-07-31T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its over for $MTCH 😂 This is High Yield Harrys Mom unfortunately he was trampled by this run club earlier this evening. We will miss him very much. https://t.co/sSaLjn7rcM This is High Yield Harrys Mom unfortunately he was trampled by this run club earlier this evening. We will miss him very much. https://t.co/sSaLjn7rcM"
X Link 2024-08-02T03:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""In the Paris region nights booked for the dates of the Olympics through Q2 were more than double what they were the same time a year ago." - $ABNB. Stat shows the ability for supply to flex and meet demand spikes. Obv contrast re velocity of incremental supply vs hotels"
X Link 2024-08-07T03:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$EYE guidance cut; stock tanking pre-market. We have previously written about National Vision Holdings (see below) and flagged a challenging path ahead for them. Not the balance sheet you'd want either for a weakening demand environment"
X Link 2024-08-07T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@buysidebogey Totally - they're in a pretty bad spot with their balance sheet and exposure to the low income consumer. It made no sense w. the multiple it was on. The online players have likely had some impact but I wouldn't be able to quantify it"
X Link 2024-08-07T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@HedgeyeComm It happens. Px move felt like an overreaction to the soft Q3 guide given nothing in the qtr drew away from the LT opp (Performance+ cld arguably accelerate lower funnel adoption for them)"
X Link 2024-08-09T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great points. While $PINS is still proving out its ability to execute on ad stack improvements (theyre doing a lot better here under Bill Ready) theres precedent re the immense benefit that can be derived from ad campaign automation by way of Performance Max and Advantage+. So unless they massively fumble something with the rollout its hard to see how this doesnt just make life a lot easier for advertisers and reduce the friction of them reallocating ad budgets towards PINS (which has good ROAS given the increasing inventory supply pushing down CPMs and now better measurement tools to give"
X Link 2024-08-09T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bristlemoon just published an update on $PAR following the 2Q24 result. It was a strong result w. c.24% organic ARR growth Q3 adj. EBITDA profitability guidance reaffirmed and a datapoint suggesting that PAR's customers are still comping at robust MSD % rates in Q2"
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We were concerned around whether slowing demand trends for restaurants might affect their technology adoption roadmaps. This remains a risk but the 5.5% SSS growth on average for Brink customers suggests they're holding up well (at present). https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corp-par-2q24-resultr=6grhx https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corp-par-2q24-resultr=6grhx"
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We would point out that the average $2m AUV restaurant unit is paying $PAR just 0.2% of their AUV for a mission-critical piece of software. The co has guided to 20-30% ARR growth going forward based on new logo wins LFL price increases and cross-selling"
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"On the call it was noted that attaching both Data Central and Payments to a Brink deal increases the ARR by 3x and a customer who buys all of $PAR's products will c.4x what the average PAR Operator Cloud customer is paying today. This multi-product approach is getting traction"
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The comments on $PAR's pipeline were exceptionally bullish (they have been for a number of quarters now): "We have again categorically never had so much pipeline particularly within Operator Cloud as we have today.We have not seen a slowdown in that pipeline""
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We believe there is a path to $110m of adj. EBITDA in FY26. If the mkt capitalizes this at 30x ( $AGYS is at 66x rn) then you can back into a 23% IRR out to FY26. See the report for further details"
X Link 2024-08-12T10:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How much conviction we can get on a stock is a function of how well we are able to answer questions that arise as the business is analyzed. As a rule of thumb the greater the number of unanswered or even unanswerable questions the lower your level of conviction is likely to be"
X Link 2024-08-22T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A lack of conviction can stem from a variety of sources: 1) by failing to analyze the business or when the analysis performed is of a perfunctory nature; 2) the business is of a complexity or opacity that makes it harder to derive confidence from the analysis; and/or 3) when an investor has a proclivity to be influenced by external factors causing them to capriciously abandon their own fundamental opinions"
X Link 2024-08-22T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Dollar General $DG saw its share price fall by a whopping 32% after reporting a dismal result. The DG earnings call commentary illustrated the bifurcation in health of the U.S. consumer with low income consumers in particularly struggling due to the continued pressures from inflation. The earnings call comments by DG CEO Todd Vasos (reproduced below) are alarming to say the least: ".our core customer who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales comes predominantly from households earning less than $35000 annually. Inflation has continued to negatively impact these households with"
X Link 2024-08-29T21:28Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements
"Insightful thoughts on $RH by @MattJMcClintock. Gary has an amazing track record with what hes achieved but this one very much feels like a trust me story that continues to get pushed out with lackluster numbers and a debt burden that should make some of the longs nervous. $RH Immediate Call Postmortem: Zaccone had the best question. How much of the product is new. And Gary dodged it like Neo from The Matrix. Then Simeon brings it back. And Gary dodged it once again. I find it amazing that Gary continues to talk up European expansion at the $RH Immediate Call Postmortem: Zaccone had the best"
X Link 2024-09-13T09:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As an interesting counterpoint to U.S. Federal Reserve independence I recently learned that s11 of the RBA Act allows the Treasurer to override the Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions on interest rates. In short this is legislation that allows the Australian government to set monetary policy if they wanted to after jumping through a few hurdles. Remarkably even though this power has existed for almost [--] years s11 has never been used before. I wonder if U.S. Congress would have acted with similar restraint if they had the same veto power over the Fed"
X Link 2024-09-22T22:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JEF comments re $CRM Agentforce: "We hosted [--] Salesforce partners for dinner all of whom noted that Agentforce is the real deal. We note that it is rare to hear partners this excited about a product and that partners were previously skeptical about Einstein Copilot. We believe Agentforce is more than a rebrand of Einstein Copilot and that the product will be a material contributor to growth over time""
X Link 2024-09-22T22:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@getrichslow00 @TegusHQ Yeah the black box nature of their biz leads to a valuation discount relative to the growth profile but then the market will periodically forget about that opacity discount and run ahead of itself (not saying that's the case now)"
X Link 2024-09-23T08:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My notes on $PINS from a call with an agency that oversees $800m of annual digital spend across [---] companies in UCan + UK: - Spend across the agency's advertisers on PINS grew +29% YoY in 1Q24 +30% in 2Q24 and are forecast to grow +28% 3Q24E +30% 4Q24E +26% 1Q25E and +27% 2Q25E. The call expert said it wasn't anything necessarily wrong with PINS's ad performance it's just that things were going even better at $META and $GOOGL. - Pinterest's Performance+ product is like Advantage+ and Performance Max [--] years ago. Expert sees 20-30% time improvement in ad campaign creation and ROAS"
X Link 2024-09-25T11:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IBKR has grown client accounts at a 35% CAGR over the past [--] years (we explore the sustainability of this) and client equity has grown at 2x the rate of discount brokerage/wealth management peers over the last decade. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/interactive-brokers-ibkr-hoovering https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/interactive-brokers-ibkr-hoovering"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"IBKR generates revenue mainly through commissions on trading activity and net interest income on its income earning assets. Variable costs are limited to execution and clearing expenses and fixed costs are low due to extensive automation = industry-leading margins"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We breakdown the clients that $IBKR services which sets the scene for understanding mix impacts and the future growth potential of client accounts and trading activity"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We explore how low-cost encompasses more than just headline trading commissions and how execution quality matters more than low commissions and fees. IBKR indicates that on average total commissions and fees amount to just [--] bps of trade value with execution costs in the range of 2-5x higher. This means that for a client trading high volume (IBKR average trade size is north of $20000) a [--] bps slippage in execution which is just one cent on a $100 stock will eliminate any commission savings from a zero-commission broker"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IBKR also pays the highest interest on idle cash and charges the lowest interest on margin loans. Indeed the interest on an $11000 cash balance can be enough to offset IBKRs commissions on nearly $400000 of trades"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IBKR has a huge focus on technology and automation: 60-70% of employees are programmers and 90% of software is built in-house providing powerful advantages that we explore in the report"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IBKR has largely automated its marketing function; of its [----] employees (2Q24) only 1% of them are in sales. IBKR's CAC per new account has declined by 70% over the past [--] years"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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