#  @FundamentEdge Brett Caughran Brett Caughran posts on X about investment, stocks, if you, bloomberg the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1040280829077934081/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +159% - [--] Month [-------] +27% - [--] Months [---------] +108% - [--] Year [---------] +156% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1040280829077934081/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +100% - [--] Month [--] +119% - [--] Months [--] +88% - [--] Year [---] +76% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1040280829077934081/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.42% - [--] Month [------] +1.40% - [--] Months [------] +13% - [--] Year [------] +22% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1040280829077934081/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) **Social topic influence** [investment](/topic/investment), [stocks](/topic/stocks) #4222, [if you](/topic/if-you), [bloomberg](/topic/bloomberg), [money](/topic/money), [brett](/topic/brett), [ai](/topic/ai), [$googl](/topic/$googl), [in the](/topic/in-the), [has been](/topic/has-been) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@virtu101](/creator/undefined) [@urbankaoboy](/creator/undefined) [@fundamentedgecom](/creator/undefined) [@jaredkubin](/creator/undefined) [@gavinsbaker](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined) [@blueprintsmb22](/creator/undefined) [@patrickoshag](/creator/undefined) [@notaburnerjack](/creator/undefined) [@liensofnewyork](/creator/undefined) [@hedgineering](/creator/undefined) [@karpathy](/creator/undefined) [@tseides](/creator/undefined) [@bigboybern80872](/creator/undefined) [@taipan254](/creator/undefined) [@goderguy](/creator/undefined) [@scurvecap](/creator/undefined) [@investmenttalkk](/creator/undefined) [@viggykrishnan](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Brett (BRETT)](/topic/brett) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG)](/topic/$dkng) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [CITADEL (CITADEL)](/topic/citadel) [McDonald's Corp (MCD)](/topic/$mcd) [McKesson Corporation (MCK)](/topic/$mck) [Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)](/topic/$sbux) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Basilisk (BSX)](/topic/$bsx) [Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)](/topic/$czr) [Humana Inc (HUM)](/topic/$hum) [Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX)](/topic/$dgx) [Danaher Corporation (DHR)](/topic/$dhr) [Veralto Corporation (VLTO)](/topic/$vlto) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@Goderguy @S_curvecap @InvestmentTalkk My [--] centsR/R is nearly all that matters but calculating R/R is not a rote scientific process. Fundamentally its about having a better crystal ball. The past informs yes. But many elements go into calcing a R/R" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1407701816159076352) 2021-06-23T14:07Z 41.1K followers, [--] engagements "@UrbanKaoboy Yeah thats possible. Correlation of asset prices to fed balance sheet is pretty stark. To me this is a lock in growing FCF streams at low multiples point in time. Will I get paid in [--] months or [--] years Dont know" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1506787067371483137) 2022-03-24T00:16Z 45.1K followers, [--] engagements "@UrbanKaoboy But I use measure of prospective 3-year double to measure value. Through most of [----] I only found it in small caps unique situations. Not I see it in many large caps names like $BSX and $CZR and $HUM. Through my career when I see that Ive usually not had to wait [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1506787717572530179) 2022-03-24T00:19Z 45.1K followers, [--] engagements "@viggy_krishnan $DGX handled it well. Told people from day [--] its a temporary benefit dont get too excited dont capitalize the benefitkept P/E under control and mitigated the hangover" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1522447904530649096) 2022-05-06T05:27Z 42.3K followers, [--] engagements ".margin dynamics of their business or new products/segments which can give you a helpful edge in modeling out margin stories like MA. 7) BELOW THE LINE - INTEREST TAX SHARES: This is often an ignored by sell-side just flat-line current state. True a below-the-line" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1548024762886041601) 2022-07-15T19:20Z 40K followers, [--] engagements "SCALING A MULTI-MANAGER TEAM I was going through some of my materials today in creation of Academy modules and I found a deck that I put together in summer '20 (post my [--] pod PM jobs and post quant-fund consulting gig) when I was interviewing with a large multi-manager as a PM" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1574497583958851584) 2022-09-26T20:34Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements "So there we go. Team Caughran. It didn't come to fruition. And I'm FAR from the best pod PM to ever live (evidence: I didn't get the job). But I hope there are some frameworks in here that can help you if you are at a pod team scaling right now or in the future" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1574497611486093312) 2022-09-26T20:34Z 40.8K followers, [--] engagements "IDEA VELOCITY As a buy-side analyst (hedge fund long only family office) your role on a most basic level is to support the alpha generation of the portfolio. You do this by either providing research support to other's ideas (from PM or senior analyst) or proposing your own" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1600581222530359296) 2022-12-07T20:01Z 39.9K followers, [--] engagements "and *hopefully* comes around to your outlook the Market view Converges to your Internal view and that price movement is the source of your alpha generation. The best traders/investors have a repeatable process to correctly anticipating that convergence. HOPE THAT IS HELPFUL" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1649270144076771328) 2023-04-21T04:33Z 39.9K followers, [----] engagements "I'm really excited to join the University of Oxford and the Oxford Alpha Fund this Friday April 28th to discuss frameworks for investing the the healthcare sector (which I did professionally at Maverick Capital D.E Shaw Citadel & Schonfeld)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1650612247155343362) 2023-04-24T21:26Z 40K followers, 19.8K engagements "If you agree with me your dimensions for assessing & ultimately compensating junior analysts should be more focused INPUT than OUTPUT. As the investment professional matures and earns more responsibility that balance should shift more to output in my opinion" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1658511260055670787) 2023-05-16T16:34Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements "COMPENSATION As a PM I never loved being backed into a corner on expected levels of compensation. In an ideal world in a team of 4-8 people I would have no conveyance of comp levels and thus complete degrees of freedom at the end of the year. We don't live in that world" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1658511262668685318) 2023-05-16T16:34Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements "5 THINGS I WISH I KNEW AS A FIRST TIME HEDGE FUND PORTFOLIO MANAGER I've had some DMs / e-mails over the last few months seeking advice on the move from a single manager analyst seat to a multi-manager PM seat which I thought I would tackle on this fine Friday afternoon If you" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1679938842458218497) 2023-07-15T03:13Z 35.3K followers, 442K engagements "@orrdavid Agree with many of these points. I've wondered if there is room in the market for a more fundamental-investing driven pod with less tight risk controls. But it's hard to criticize the net returns from these shops. Even after a very high fee burden LPs have done very well" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1680278310075662338) 2023-07-15T18:09Z 34.5K followers, [----] engagements "Really sorry to hear about the closure of the Brookfield hedge fund. [--] employees and [--] investment professionals impacted. I've been there. On a "bloody Tuesday" in Feb of [----] me and [--] of my very talented friends lost their jobs when Citadel closed Aptigon. While I look back at that day as a great blessing it really sucked at the time. For anyone impacted I'm happy to help how I can. DMs are open or e-mail me at brett@fundamentedge.com. Even if it's just a [--] min chat. For any investment firms looking to hire these can be fantastic opportunities to bring on A+ talent. HR people DM or" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1684661300721508354) 2023-07-27T20:25Z 43.9K followers, 118.7K engagements "A strategy I encourage my ASU students to study in our Money [---] session (i.e. things I wish people told me about money at 22) Like a stock price matters. This wont work in all metros at all times in all interest rate environments. But when it works its beautiful. Learning to underwrite real estate is a really valuable skill a key skill I will teach my sons" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1693658296429731878) 2023-08-21T16:16Z 34.7K followers, 28.3K engagements "Thoughtful thread & agree with a lot of this A debate I've had with HF friends for a decade.when does the alpha get "arb'ed" away Thought a LOT about this The best mental model I can come up with is that of pareto distribution which suggests that in any productive system the square root of participants drive half the production Applied to the HF world it means that just showing up at as PM doesn't mean you "deserve" $50m of P&L on a $1bn book. So just because we have more multi-PM capital doesn't magically compress alpha pools for all participants. Is capital & number of smart investors" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1699836102151139691) 2023-09-07T17:24Z 34.5K followers, 94.2K engagements "BEAT THE PODS: A 7-POINT RECIPE FOR SINGLE MANAGERS There has been some fun discussion here recently about the trend from single manager hedge funds (SMs) to multi-manager hedge funds (MMs or "pods"). Which is very sensical after a year like [----] where there was a big performance differential between most pods and most SMs. With many SMs well below high-water marks a year like '22 can also accelerate talent flow to MMs. In my career I had the really educational experience of both working at a very well run single-manager fund as well as three well run & well known multi-PM funds. In my role" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1700232675477618707) 2023-09-08T19:40Z 44K followers, 462.6K engagements "EXCITING NEWS: Fundamental Edge is co-hosting an undergraduate stock pitch competition this fall at Wharton Submissions window will likely open in [--] weeks so stay tuned for more details The finalist presentations will take place on-campus Thursday October 19th in Philadelphia In the meantime I am working to create a stellar panel of [--] judges. Looking for PMs or senior analysts with institutional investing experience who have a keen eye for pitch evaluation. Ideally from a firm with some stature with the students in a dream world with individual name recognition with the students If you would" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1700253734742478906) 2023-09-08T21:04Z 34.7K followers, 21.4K engagements "Im with you @JaredKubin - Ive long thought there is an opportunity for a different kind of pod. A diversified team of strong analysts. Just let them pick stocks and let them loose to be creative and aggressive. Manage the risk at center book and let it be a bit looser. Allow leans sector bets etc. Yeah maybe its only 2-3x leverage but the gross alpha should be 6-8% not 2-4%. And it could be a much more attractive landing place for the SM talent than the more relative value hyper risk focused pod ecosystem. Hell spin your top people out and run a downstream seeding operation on your most" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1700359066118459406) 2023-09-09T04:02Z 35.2K followers, [----] engagements "I don't know anything about $NVDA Which is perfect. If you are a junior buy-side analyst faced with the common task to "take a look at $NVDA and let me know what you think" you likely don't either. No domain knowledge no historical understanding of the business no grasp on the key drivers no sense of what is baked into the current stock price and no sense of the risk/reward on the stock. I honestly didn't know what GPU stood for until I googled it this morning. I'm using my naivety of the the hottest stock in AI to prove a point. There is art to investing but there is also science. At" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1702018861493895382) 2023-09-13T17:58Z 35.5K followers, 251.7K engagements "@GavinSBaker Great point. $UNH IR told me one time they get more [---] than [---] area codes dialing into their earnings calls. Astounding" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1703440573267603558) 2023-09-17T16:07Z 34.5K followers, [----] engagements "@bucketshopcap @liensofnewyork Totally agree. Also believe the center book / quant overlay is a lot harder to execute than would seem. Firms like Citadel have done that with Alpha Tracker and that is a very very hard thing to replicate" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1704158154257482208) 2023-09-19T15:39Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements "Three things we will discuss in $NVDA call. 1) The [--] analyses that I want to do to develop a thesis on NVDA (value decomp capex modeling reverse P/E 7-year model monkey math revision)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1704588022778642606) 2023-09-20T20:07Z 35.3K followers, 45.4K engagements "I am SUPER excited to announce the official launch of the WITG (Wharton Investment & Trading Group) x Fundamental Edge Fall [----] Undergraduate Stock Pitch Competition I am joined with a truly exceptional group of judges including @pmje73 @alixpasquet @FokinArtem Eric Wolff Derek Vincent (MM PM) and Andrew Greier (head of Analyst Due Diligence at Millennium) - I promise you this will an intense panel of judges that will force you to up your pitch game And a great venue to express you abilities to a group of firms hungry for top analyst talent. The winning team will all earn FREE TUITION to the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1706786339495215568) 2023-09-26T21:42Z 34.5K followers, 18.8K engagements "FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: SPIN-OFFS I was poking around today and I noticed that $DHR is spinning off its water business Veralto (VLTO). Caveat I spent about [--] minutes digging in but for a company that mgmt is guiding to MSD organic revenue growth and 30-40bps implied margin expansion 18x EBITDA didn't scream bargain. What gives I have had a long journey investing in spin-offs and I'd like to share what I've learned along the way. And more importantly how I think dynamics around spin-off equities have shifted over the years. The classic theory around spin-off investing is this: the parent company" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1707884460958769152) 2023-09-29T22:26Z 39.4K followers, 133.8K engagements "My [--] cents on this news. The beauty of the multi-manager model is that when done well the P&L stream produces a nearly pure alpha stream (albeit levered). That's insanely valuable for an LP who is already underwriting other factors like beta credit risk interest rate risk etc. to know in an allocation to an MM I get DD+ uncorrelated returns. I don't think there is any debate that the MM's have tapped into a giant alpha pool of short & intermediate fundamental alpha. And I don't think that this alpha pool will go away (outside of low probability that quants harnessing super-intelligence and" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1710715063647207789) 2023-10-07T17:53Z 34.7K followers, 126.1K engagements "END OF AN OFFICE ERA AT FUNDAMENTAL EDGE Despite growing up in Idaho and going to college at Arizona State I lived in NYC for [--] years from '07-'18 chasing my career dreams. In [----] slightly disgruntled with the hedge fund industry and massively burned out my family moved to Scottsdale in [----] and for the first time I had a dedicated office in my house. So exciting I'd get to work from home Well.with [--] boys in the house (then [--] [--] and 6m) and about [--] Amazon packages delivered daily.I soon realized working from home would not be conducive to thinking clearly. I found a perfect solution - a" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1710732997014724796) 2023-10-07T19:05Z 34.5K followers, 62.4K engagements "Having worked for a few of these incredibly successful individuals and having been a (mediocre) PM at a few large hedge funds myself Ill tell you what I observed about motivations. Past a certain level money and social status no longer become the primary sustaining motivation. This should be obvious. To me its the same reason that Phil Ivey and Phil Helmuth keep playing poker and why Tom Brady would never retire. They have a skillset that allows them to win a competitive game and the dopamine hit of winning is like nothing else that exists. Markets are just a giant game of poker yet the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1711549268849516966) 2023-10-10T01:08Z 34.5K followers, 354.6K engagements "HIDDEN FACTORS On a day when NOVOs FLOW data (GLP-1) is rocking the med tech complex ($DVA -19% $INSP -13%) I thought Id comment on a concept that Ive been thinking about a lot for the last [--] years - the concept of hidden factors and how thematic factors seem to be increasingly distorting price discovery in the equity markets Classic Tiger-style investing is the ultimate long winners short losers or long the future short the past approach (vastly simplified). Hedge out half your market exposure and your alpha is the materialized expression of your structural views on industries & business" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1712149997850935359) 2023-10-11T16:55Z 38.5K followers, 109.2K engagements "MY DAILY SCHEDULE AS A PORTFOLIO MANAGER Last week in class at ASU I had a PM at a NYC hedge fund come in as a guest speaker. A student asked him the typical "day in the life" question and we got a good laugh thinking about a "Hedge Fund Morning Routine" post.his first step was "wake up in a panic" and oh man it brought me back. Rather than attempt to be purely comedic I thought it might actually be helpful to some analysts to see the day from the PM perspective and a few takeaways from my [--] years of the daily balancing act of being a PM. The reality is that the PM seat (this is from my pod" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1719824187626586185) 2023-11-01T21:10Z 34.5K followers, 272.4K engagements "THE PRIMACY OF REVENUE GROWTH Having grown up as a Tiger-style investor one of the lessons that sticks with me the most is the value of revenue growth. As an impressionable [--] year old analyst I will never forget Steve Mandel from Lone Pine telling our analyst group a simple but powerful truth - sustained structural growth is (almost always) chronically underpriced in the market and sustained secular decline is (almost always) chronically overpriced in the market. In a market ecosystem keyed on P/E ratios investors will get the proper P/E range directionally correct but will miss on" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1720121714942861785) 2023-11-02T16:52Z 35.3K followers, 251.2K engagements "GOOD NEWS - SHARING FExWITG TOP [--] PITCHES W/ nearly [---] high-quality pitches the inaugural FExWITG Stock Pitch Competition was a huge success. We have received approval to share the top [--] finalist decks with our followers. To get a DM with the link retweet or reply "FExWITG"" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1720496420443320434) 2023-11-03T17:41Z 34.5K followers, 91.2K engagements "VALUATION SURVEY For my buy-side fundamental equity followers a question. What is the primary valuation tool in your thesis construction process (I think I know the answer.but this is an attempt to be a little more scientific and not just teach "Brett's way" but attempt to seek "best practices".) Any color on your typical valuation lens in the comments is appreciated" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1721584028481192159) 2023-11-06T17:43Z 34.5K followers, 20K engagements "@adnuta1 @bucketshopcap Try Search One Dynamics and Odyssey. You can find/connect with recruiters from those shops directly on LinkedIn" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1732441966024216791) 2023-12-06T16:48Z 35.2K followers, [---] engagements "@FairWindsCap @SaaS_Monkey It depends on a lot of factors. Team size firm netting whether team is senior or junior. Whether they have handshake deals / points in the team. Generally I've seen anywhere from 40-60% in a large scaled team and for a smaller more junior team it can be 60-75%" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1732494090372272145) 2023-12-06T20:15Z 35.2K followers, [---] engagements "DE-GROSSING WHAT IS IT With lots of chatter about "unwinds" & "de-grossing" over the last couple weeks and jefco PB comments of the worst HF unwind in decades in December circulating on twitter I thought it might be a useful exercise to try to break the concept of de-grossing down a bit for those who don't fully understand the concept. If you're like me I was afraid to ask questions for fear of seeming stupid (to be clear there ARE stupid questions at a hedge fund). So fire up your anonymous X account and ask the stupid questions here. WHAT IS GROSS Think of gross exposure as simply your" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1737580077456793887) 2023-12-20T21:05Z 35.5K followers, 42.9K engagements "JP Morgan Healthcare Conference Shoutout to my #JPMHC #JPM24 conference peeps this week. I won't be attending but did for nearly a decade as a hedge fund analyst & PM. Despite this conference being torturous at times (decrepit hotel with inedible food certainly packed above fire code capacity) I have many fond memories of my JPM years. I was also chuckling when I saw #JPMHC trending on twitter this weekend. How many sell-side conferences can you say that about Why does #JPMHC get so much attention Really two reasons. 1) TIMING. Investors haven't heard from companies in a while. In HC the last" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1744389103150669942) 2024-01-08T16:02Z 34.5K followers, 47.9K engagements "We will start from first principles of the flow of capital from allocators to firms. What are allocators seeking to do Why have MM's been such attractive partners How do the basic mechanics of a pod work Equity gross distributed risk vol targeting pass through expenses etc. I will attempt to explain in basic language the structure & purpose of the multi-manger model. We will talk about leverage and how leverage informs strategy at pods. Particularly when it comes to the protection of left tail events / drawdown protection. I will attempt to answer the question are pods a ZIRP phenomenon With" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1750540983501222073) 2024-01-25T15:27Z 36.1K followers, [----] engagements "And lastly I will share my (nuanced) conclusion on the question "are we at peak pod" My hope is at the end we will have time to open it up for an open mic. For other market participants to chime in and correct me where I was wrong and have a discussion/debate. Very much looking forward" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750540986122641460) 2024-01-25T15:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "ALUMNI SPEAKER SERIES: RICH FALK-WALLACE (former Viking Citadel PM) I am pumped for our next installment of Speaker Series a near monthly series where Fundamental Edge brings in topical speakers for the buy-side learner. Today we will be hosting @richfalkwallace an experienced buy-side professional at both Viking Global and Citadel where he was a global natural resources PM. Recently Rich has been building Arcana a proprietary financial & risk data firm and is an incredibly interesting thinker & builder in the realm of factor risk models. If you are not following Rich on both X and LinkedIn I" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1755648278405018063) 2024-02-08T17:42Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements "ARIZONA SPRING TRAINING WEEK It's a huge week at Fundamental Edge: our first inaugural Analyst Spring Training. We began the week with a Fundamental Edge Team Offsite walking through our 3-5 year vision for this platform. Our team has grown to seven awesome individuals and we have big ambitions for what this platform can become. We feel like we are just scratching the surface on the value we can provide to buy-side investment professionals. While the bulk of the week is alumni-exclusive we are exploring ways to share some of the content more broadly perhaps simply in a few distilled threads." [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1762932950428172406) 2024-02-28T20:09Z 36.5K followers, [----] engagements "LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY MARCH [--] COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis - How to be a" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1765116001040109574) 2024-03-05T20:43Z 36.7K followers, 11.1K engagements "GEN Z ON THE BUY-SIDE PANEL A FOUR-PART FRAMEWORK & A QUESTION FOR YOU ALL Hello I will be speaking at the upcoming Institutional Investor Trader Forum Conference in Scottsdale in a session titled Roadmap for Junior Traders. I will be discussing four frameworks that we have developed and offer to our Enterprise Clients. 1) EXPECTATIONS TRACK. The importance of setting clear up front expectations. "Here's why we hired you and our perception of your strengths & areas of improvement". Avoid the all-too-common "neglected analyst" problem with regular check-ins with the expectations document (can" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1765413815246864529) 2024-03-06T16:27Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements "Oh man had so many conversations with PMs over the years on this exact topic. Existential conversations. Investment professional leaves a solid seat for a pod PM role. Guarantee is enticing. Autonomy & direct payout is enticing. "I've been a money maker how hard can it be". Market neutral tight risk you are great if you can do 3-5% consistently (looser risk 6-8%+). BUT 3-5% on gross is actually 6-10% long/short spread i.e. if my longs are up 6% and my shorts are flat I made 3% on gross. And this alpha is actually alpha not relative factor bets beta exposure etc. And 3% isn't really 3% as you" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1765476936841887994) 2024-03-06T20:37Z 36.7K followers, 206.2K engagements ""THE MARKET IS BROKEN": WHY STOCKS MOVE We are in a stage of markets where it is fashionable to look at the massive moves in $NVDA (+90% YTD) and $SMCI (+242% YTD) and conclude that the market is broken and price discovery is dominated by quants pods & retail momentum traders. And to make the argument that "fundamentals don't matter." While I have my opinions on how some of the AI-levered stocks will play out (which I won't share here) I do have very strong views on the "fundamentals don't matter" debate. I'm here to assert: fundamentals are all that matter** (**with an investment horizon" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1771239097769816091) 2024-03-22T18:14Z 45K followers, 136.3K engagements "VERY TRUE. Also why certain SM's I follow have actually shifted approach to taking advantage and I've seen some back to generating DD+ L/S spread taking advantage of these dislocations. Having the rope to approach volatility differently has always been a bid advantage but seems obviously will become an even bigger advantage. Investing in the "phone booth" and having to gross & de-gross with the crowd is so hard (the hardest thing I found about running pod $)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1771254768603987996) 2024-03-22T19:16Z 36.8K followers, [----] engagements "@_1Dance Totally agree. First step is understanding why the moves are happening that gives conviction/confidence to fade them. Buying from a forced seller - alpha pool as old as markets" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1771257191221113120) 2024-03-22T19:26Z 36.8K followers, [---] engagements "So good Thanks for sharing @__paleologo If your firm has a risk model Gappy's book Advanced Portfolio Management is a must read. It's a top practitioner's distilled view of risk from years in key risk management seats. Most investment books might have 2-3 good nuggets (and a lot of less helpful filler).Gappy's book I think I have more highlighted sections than not. Read carefully it's a manual to managing capital in a volatility budgeted environment. Trying to rewrite this old checklist I wrote on the back of that business card that I lost: [--]. Separate idiosyncratic returns from systematic" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1773758804431380926) 2024-03-29T17:07Z 37K followers, 26.8K engagements "Just a very rough estimate assuming that risk envelop is enforcing a 3% volatility on gross. Vol on gross varies but generally in that LSD/MSD range. For example if you run 8% vol on gross with 5x a leverage and you have a [---] sharpe drawdown you've blown up your fund (-80%). So it's a function of the risk calibration of these firms that have generally centered around LSD/MSD vol on gross with 3-6x leverage to turn 1-sharpe gross P&L into low/mid-teens return on equity" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1775283088056275416) 2024-04-02T22:04Z 37K followers, [----] engagements "@macrocephalopod @TheLAPurchaser Yeah the individual portfolios are 3-5% but I'm probably missing in this analysis the diffusing effects of the portfolio roll-up as well as any portfolio level hedging. So you are right the realized vol on gross is likely lower than 3% - good catch" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1775316817202106769) 2024-04-03T00:18Z 37K followers, [----] engagements "$NVDA & THE POWER OF THE "SECOND DERIVATIVE" As stock pickers we are advised to identify stocks that trade at a price-value gap. To repeatedly buy stocks below their intrinsic value. Certainly that seems like prudent advice. Who wouldn't want to buy a dollar bill for [--] cents The longer I have participated in markets however the more I run into executional challenges with this very simple framework. Specifically how do I determine intrinsic value Carefully examined we can see the myriad challenges in determining an accurate assessment of equity value. Equity is the residual claim of a capital" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1782825789060444356) 2024-04-23T17:36Z 40.6K followers, 56.2K engagements "This trend has been great for $MCD profits (FCF +56% and margins up 340bps [----] to 2024). But the question for the analyst covering the stock is: how durable is this growth Again without knowing the specifics at $MCD what we see is a company who has grown EPS 56% over [--] years riding the wave of this inflation-encouraged pricing reset. The business is now at [--] year peak margins with a P/E multiple still above the 20-year average (21.4x NTM). Caveat - do your own work here this is not a stock recommendation simply an observation. The unfortunate reality is that when companies get to a point of" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1787540427090055171) 2024-05-06T17:50Z 39.6K followers, [----] engagements "MANAGING THE CORPORATE RELATIONSHIP When I was preparing for hedge fund interviews back in '07 I read pretty much every investing book I could get my hands on. I plowed through all the classics. I thought this would prepare me the analyst seat. While there were many helpful nuggets I picked up from these readings there were many dimensions of the fundamental analyst workload that were entirely ignored. One of those was managing the corporate relationship. "We have a great relationship with the company". I remember hearing that as a junior analyst and thinking to my self "WTF does that even" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1797686702791971246) 2024-06-03T17:48Z 37.8K followers, 23.8K engagements "Working on re-filling the twitter pipeline over the next couple weeks. What are some topics on your mind that you would like to see me dive into" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1797707532733223027) 2024-06-03T19:10Z 37.9K followers, 15.7K engagements "Thanks for the question @blueprintsmb22. Many reasons why I left the buy-side in '21. Principally I had three young sons and I wanted to have more mental & emotional space for them. I wasn't an investing savant (by any means) I was a grinder. I couldn't take shortcuts and that required total dedication. I didn't think I could go 90% speed and be successful. And in a lot of ways I was a classic case of burnout & adrenal fatigue.the job just wasn't fun anymore. I also had a strong desire to move my family from NYC to Arizona (which we did in 2018) where my wife's family resides and where I went" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1798207604310819234) 2024-06-05T04:17Z 37.8K followers, [----] engagements "Without knowing the specifics I think generally the view is that a PM who spins is 1) likely among the more successful of the PMs 2) will offer the parent company capacity rights. So whether a dollar is allocated to an internal PM or an external PM it doesn't functionally matter to the return stream. It can also be a selling point as a successful PM has options and an easy/supportive path to spinout down the road is a nice carrot. Often the more relevant question is why a really successful Big [--] MM PM spins out vs. staying internal. Often it's simply an entrepreneurial itch that drives that" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1798210980310310919) 2024-06-05T04:31Z 39.6K followers, [---] engagements "AI TOOLS IN THE INVESTMENT PROCESS: [--] BARRIERS TO SCALE One of the really cool (and unexpected) byproducts of what we are building at Fundamental Edge is that increasingly more financial software entrepreneurs are reaching out to us for guidance on their tools. This is really cool and I enjoy these conversations and the ability to see what is being built. On a personal level I've gone from no AI use to a daily power user as the models have gotten much better & more reliable (lately developing variable craps strategies for cold/hot shooters that get me as close to [--] house edge as possible)." [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1798364689937949031) 2024-06-05T14:42Z 37.9K followers, 57.8K engagements "Hey Khe Very hard in practice. For me the money wasn't the hardest part (though I still very much miss that day in January when the bonus hits the account). With age I've learned I actually don't want the things I always thought I wanted - private jet expensive watch collection a bunch of vacation houses (sounds like a pain in the butt). But what I really love about money is the freedom to chose how I spend my time which I have and another dollar incrementally wouldn't change. The hardest part was the shift in identity. Who am I now Without this job without these work colleagues without this" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1798374882381881532) 2024-06-05T15:22Z 37.8K followers, [---] engagements "100% GME's entire MCAP pre-MEME era was in the $500m-ish range. Even with close to 100% short that's a $500m short position in an equity notional hedge fund industry short book I estimate as north of $1tn. The direct impact of $GME and $AMC outside of a few specific funds (like Melvin) has been immaterial. Prudent short sellers had an emergency team meeting at the onset of the MEME moves in '21 and it was pretty much understood without even addressing it that we wouldn't be shorting these MEME stocks. I don't even recall a debate it was so obvious we didn't want to step into this fray. The" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1799507310928408820) 2024-06-08T18:22Z 37.9K followers, 34.5K engagements "AI Investment Process Vendors - seeking comprehensive list & feedback: We are wrapping up an Analyst Academy cohort tomorrow and won't launch again until August 5th. July will again will be my "semi-sabbatical" where I will take critical meetings but mostly be off the desk (for the third summer in a row my wife and our [--] [--] and [--] year old boys will be road-tripping from Scottsdale up to Coeur d' Alene Idaho my hometown and hanging there for a couple weeks before heading home). One of my summer projects is to dig deeper into the emerging AI investment process tools via demos & free trials" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1802808621287485772) 2024-06-17T21:00Z 38.2K followers, 42.4K engagements "It's a fascinating question and this thread has some really thoughtful responses. I hear this narrative a lot that stocks are "over-themed" and "over-shoot". I think it's particularly interesting in the case of $NVDA that is up 170% YTD despite negative active flows YTD. I've thought a lot about this and don't have the right answers but I think about this in [--] buckets. 1) Severe index hugging: Index hugging has for decades been a "thing" but with 60% of the S&P [---] YTD return being driven by [--] stocks (and 35% by ONE stock) portfolio construction decisions vis--vis the Big [--] are more critical" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1803092276178227233) 2024-06-18T15:47Z 38.4K followers, 85.2K engagements "I retired from managing money in [----] after [--] years as an analyst & PM. I had no idea what I was going to do next. On a whim I started tweeting some of the content from my class at ASU and through that I met a handful of analysts on here who had gone through the Point [--] Academy. I had heard of the program from afar but I started to really actively study the program and I was really impressed with what I learned. The lightbulb moment for me was when I started to observe well-respected single manager funds poaching grads from the P72 Academy (they had to respond by extending the non-compete" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1804189937333596622) 2024-06-21T16:29Z 38.4K followers, 128.5K engagements "Completely agree and as a former healthcare PM my observation was that the biotech industry was the only group that really got this. The biotech industry is so capital consumptive and the business model is very sensitive to availability & cost of capital so this matters a lot. And it mostly works - good drugs get funding large or small. And there are many many small & mid-cap biotech investors who do very well sifting through these opportunities to find the gems. That isnt true in tech & software and it feels like this discourse ignores the realities of WACC & cost of equity capital. Over" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1804534998235848735) 2024-06-22T15:20Z 38.4K followers, 59.2K engagements "Mid-year outlook from Henry McVey at KKR. His reports always on my must read list: https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2024-mid-year-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2024-mid-year-outlook.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1806207895035625737) 2024-06-27T06:08Z 38.4K followers, 62.8K engagements "Also disclaimer I have no relationship with P72 to promote this program I just think for the right candidate this is a really intriguing potential pathway" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1825666520976069034) 2024-08-19T22:49Z 39.9K followers, [----] engagements "I found this discussion on handling edge cases in fundamental data to be very insightful from two guys in the trenches building this stuff. @hedgineering @Daloopa1 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=lXO6GLkHlGg&t=2200s RACE FOR THE AI ANALYST Thought this was an interesting article on AI in the investment process and I liked the framing as "ChatGPT as intern". I've continued to try to get smart in this space. Over the summer I listened to a bunch of AI podcasts read some papers and https://t.co/or7PJphzNR https://www.youtube.com/watchv=lXO6GLkHlGg&t=2200s RACE FOR THE AI ANALYST Thought this was" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1826295853973447044) 2024-08-21T16:30Z 44.8K followers, 16.4K engagements "LEARNING AI (FOR THE LUDDITE) My summer project update Do you feel like I do when you listen to @patrick_oshag and @GavinSBaker 's recent (EXCELLENT) podcast on AI that is.massive intellectual inferiority Was your last science & math class senior year of high school Do you kind of feel like AI is going to be a big deal but you don't *really* know how an LLM operates or the difference between RAG or RLHF Well the good news is SAME. I am a state school finance undergrad who covered hospital stocks for 10+ years on the buy-side. I know a lot about Medicare & Medicaid but very little about the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1828529587288187096) 2024-08-27T20:26Z 39.9K followers, 63.1K engagements "WHAT'S THE BETTER STOCK And a three part test for business quality I had an interesting discussion recently with someone on the importance of business quality in stock selection and the usage of quantitative metrics to assess business quality. I used this example in the discussion and I thought it may be helpful to share. Say I gave you this proposal: Own either Stock A or Stock B based on these widely agreed upon metrics of business quality margins & ROIC (which captures both profitability & capital intensity). Stock A would SEEM to be an exceptional business and Stock B would seem to be a" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1828848495400460628) 2024-08-28T17:33Z 39.9K followers, 55.3K engagements "LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY OCT 14th COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1836820739065856023) 2024-09-19T17:32Z 39.9K followers, 22K engagements "CORE FORMULA I like to break things down to what I call the "core formula" of EPS vs. P/E. How much of the stocks move YTD has been due to NTM EPS estimate progression (roll-forward & revision) vs. P/E expansion. The general view is that estimate progression is more durable than multiple expansion (not always true). Particularly for big moves like a WING it is helpful to see that just around all of the stocks move YTD has been due to estimate progression not multiple expansion (this isn't me expressing a view won the fairness of WING's 90x P/E). Particularly on the short side of the book I" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1848782036137611488) 2024-10-22T17:42Z 39.9K followers, 11.6K engagements "My marketing team won and wants to distribute this file over e-mail 😀 If you are subscribed to our e-mail list you will receive the cleansed/flat underlying excel shortly (with a tab of FactSet pulls if you are a subscriber) If you are a Bloomberg/CapIQ subscriber often your sales person can help with a conversion of this file (or if you work at BBerg/CapIQ and want to contact me happy to work with you to convert this) If you are not subscribed and would like to see the underlying excel subscribe here (should work if you are already subscribed to put in your e-mail here)." [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1849546525971517792) 2024-10-24T20:20Z 45.5K followers, 21.3K engagements "I really enjoyed this conversation between @tseides and @rsandler21969. It has been very thought provoking to follow how Ricky has evolved his firm in a changing environment. A few points that stood out. 1) Market Structure Has Changed (Dramatically) Over the Last Decade. Passive share has shifted from 25% to 60% the remaining Active share has shifted away from fundamental single-manager L/S towards multi-manager L/S and quant. And there has been a rise in thematic ETF AUM. Great Quote: "If we need investor perception to change we need to understand where we are different and who we are" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1851706192646504530) 2024-10-30T19:22Z 45.5K followers, 57.5K engagements "Yes that is something we have thought about. However generally our enterprise programs are priced at a significant premium to a standard day rate you would see from Wall Street Prep or Training the Street which can be an issue for some sell-side firms. We can half-way solve budget constraints by self-pacing / hybridizing some of the curriculum. But with lots of projects going on hasn't been our top priority yet" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1851756772870033613) 2024-10-30T22:43Z 45.5K followers, [---] engagements "FRAMEWORKS FOR PORTFOLIO ELECTION PREP I was asked today in an office hours how I prepared my portfolio a presidential election. This process usually began weeks before the elections but with just a few trading days left until the election I thought sharing this framework might be helpful. First a decision 1) do you want to make a portfolio decision betting on a specific candidate 2) do you want to hedge the outcome completely 3) do you want to mostly hedge but *selectively* find mispriced risk. My bias has always been [--] and let me walk you through a few analyses I always did. 1) LOADINGS" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1852074680888295592) 2024-10-31T19:46Z 45.5K followers, 18.7K engagements "THE CUTTING EDGE EPISODE 3: JIM FALBE SAGUARO CAPITAL (Monday November 11th at 5pm ET) I hope you have enjoyed our first two episodes of The Cutting Edge where we have been exploring the frontier of artificial intelligence applied to fundamental investment research. We are very happy to announce Episode [--] which will take place Monday November 11th at 5pm ET. We have heard from two builders in the AI space and now we will shift sides of the table and hear from Jim Falbe. Jim has been exploring the use of AI in the fundamental investing process for nearly a decade first at Vulcan Value Partners" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1853588576438464614) 2024-11-05T00:02Z 40K followers, [----] engagements "Does anyone reading this work at Bloomberg I built this in Factset. I had a reader graciously convert it to CapIQ. But I would like to have it available in Bloomberg as well (I'm not currently a subscriber) so we could offer this file for free download in all terminal formats. I've had a dozen+ requests for this file in Bloomberg and would like to convert but need some help THE BUY-SIDE COMP SHEET One of the saddest things about leaving an institutional hedge fund is loads of your infrastructure gets locked away forever. Well I'm on a journey to rebuild many of my investment process" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1853591428347138518) 2024-11-05T00:13Z 40K followers, 63.6K engagements "I am building a custom training program for a family office and they have requested some curriculum on activist investing. I have followed many activist campaigns and gone soft activist a few times so I know a little but this isnt my power alley. Im seeking a current or (more likely) retired activist investor who may want to teach a bit. Ideal candidate has institutional experience managing activist campaigns and has a desire to share this wisdom with the next generation of investors. Please DM" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1856032676547047497) 2024-11-11T17:54Z 40K followers, 11K engagements "Mission accomplished. This comp sheet is now available for free download on our website in either Bloomberg Factset or CapIQ. See download link at the bottom of the blog post here: http://www.fundamentedge.com/blog/the-buy-side-comp-sheet Does anyone reading this work at Bloomberg I built this in Factset. I had a reader graciously convert it to CapIQ. But I would like to have it available in Bloomberg as well (I'm not currently a subscriber) so we could offer this file for free download in all terminal formats. http://www.fundamentedge.com/blog/the-buy-side-comp-sheet Does anyone reading this" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1856816249130340471) 2024-11-13T21:47Z 40K followers, 48.4K engagements "@heartbreakout thanks for heads up. I don't have bloomberg so a reader did the conversion. We will swap it out with another version that looks more accurate now. Check back in a couple hours and please let me know if it looks more accurate" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1856824998817603589) 2024-11-13T22:22Z 40K followers, [----] engagements "LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY DEC 2ND COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis -" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1857085733430833230) 2024-11-14T15:38Z 40.2K followers, 16.7K engagements "UNDERWRITING THE STOCK MARKET A major paradox of stock selection is that the trajectory of the market is likely to be primarily deterministic to the trajectory of my portfolio YET most sophisticated stock pickers are spending little time forecasting the market. This isn't due to neglect or laziness but due to lived experience with regard to the difficulties of forecasting the trajectory of the S&P [---]. It is the general consensus with which I agree that it is easier to forecast the bottom's up KPIs of businesses that I can closely diligence rather than the myriad economic & geopolitical" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1858922670148252081) 2024-11-19T17:17Z 40.6K followers, 66.7K engagements "This has been great news and has led the 10-year trailing CAGR on the S&P [---] to push low-teens which has really only happened in 4-eras over the last century. Some of those eras lasted longer than others (80's & 90's a monster bull market) but in all [--] priors boom eventually turned to bust. And I'm not here to make a market forecast. I'm here to show you some tools. But this chart was one of my first mentor's favorite tool for forecasting longer duration equity returns (he pointed to the consistent cyclicality & mean reverting nature of these returns). 3) QUITE SIMPLY ENTRY MULTIPLES MATTERS" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1858922673704730939) 2024-11-19T17:17Z 40.1K followers, [----] engagements "#Swifties in Toronto" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1860133339258323221) 2024-11-23T01:28Z 40.3K followers, 10K engagements "I have ZERO clue about anything $PLTR related (so it goes without saying don't take this as a recommendation). But as is often my observation over the last few years *many* stocks that we can rush to to dismiss as irrational often have some real fundamental underpinning. Not everything is an AMC/GME (i.e. just a pump with no real fundamental story) and more times than not we can apply a fundamental framework to explain the stock move. A couple observations here: - PLTR's revenue growth over the last [--] quarters has shown a meaningful acceleration from +12% to +30%. This top-line acceleration" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1861151377390477599) 2024-11-25T20:54Z 40.6K followers, 98.7K engagements "BY FAR the biggest area I experience young investors having to "unlearn" is in the area of WACC & cost of equity. The orthodoxy that we teach finance students that CAPM will feed into WACC and provide an accurate assessment of cost of capital for publicly traded equities is just bad. There are so many reasons why. The silliest may be that in the development of CAPM in the 60's and 70's (initial paper [----] with some follow-ups) beta showed a strong linear relationship with realized returns. The problem is it hasn't since (see Betting Against Beta or the low beta paradox). So basically a data" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1864000347074920525) 2024-12-03T17:34Z 41.1K followers, 119.4K engagements "VALUE INVESTING I have never considered myself a classic value investor (the buy low P/E P/B type) and certainly never felt qualified to teach a course in value investing. Through great serendipity (and a generous intro by @tseides) I met Paul Johnson last year. Paul is a excellent teacher of investing process and by virtue of his 30+ years as an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School an extremely thoughtful teacher on the craft of value investing. Paul's students rave about him. We were very pleased to bring Paul on board at Fundamental Edge last year and he has quickly become an" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1866606131092562058) 2024-12-10T22:09Z 40.6K followers, [----] engagements "Yo I know zero people under [--] who have left a hedge fund and just chill on the beach. But I know 20+ who have left a hedge fund and do something else.went to corporate something entrepreneurial back to sell-side launched funds that are more chill quasi-friends & family investment vehicles CFO of venture backed companies etc. *Maybe they took a pay cut but they have more freedom & flow in their lives (and I say *maybe because while top-decile HF pros still do very well the *median hedge fund comp can be earned in lots of other areas). Why don't more drop out 1) Investing is a fun game" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1868847835468226781) 2024-12-17T02:37Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements "I have very much enjoyed this demo so far and looking forward to hosting Kris tomorrow. We will discuss a couple specific things. 1) The analyst's challenge of identifying fraud and/or accounting restatement risk (efficiently). What a process to identify these issues can look like today (hint: it's very artisanal with lots of unstructured data) and how AI can help quantify that unstructured data and accelerate that process. Using AI to quantify qualitative risk is an exceptionally good use case in my opinion (much better than AI transcript summaries.) Giving you one example my forensic" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1869468953803907498) 2024-12-18T19:45Z 40.8K followers, 15.7K engagements "I think this really depends on your use case. The retail tools (ChatGPT/Claude) dont have built-in document access (have to upload manually which is cumbersome & buggy) no financial data (most of the purpose-built tools partner with FactSet or CapIQ for data) and dont have a UI built for the process of financial analysis. Perplexity working out this but doubt if OpenAI or Anthropic will. If tools are sub $100 a month these advantages seem like a good value proposition. I think there will be a lot of value in pro-active alerts (i.e. please tell me across these [---] consumer companies when there" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1872380744200224904) 2024-12-26T20:35Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements "This is a good thread for those wanting to understand multi-manager firms For anyone who wants a deeper dive into the structure and function of a typical multi-manager firm I did a [--] hour deep dive last January. Attaching the link here https://www.fundamentedge.com/rise-of-the-pods-partners The replies to this and to the original post illustrate a lot of confusion about what the multi-manager platforms do confusing them with high frequency market makers etc. I'll start off here others can add more color. https://www.fundamentedge.com/rise-of-the-pods-partners The replies to this and to the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1877001139666788624) 2025-01-08T14:35Z 41K followers, 38.8K engagements "@Restructuring__ Wow thanks so much Restructuring 🫡🫡🫡" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1878140380119539855) 2025-01-11T18:02Z 41K followers, [----] engagements "NEW PROGRAM: FACTORS FOR THE FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR It has been quite a [---] year journey at Fundamental Edge. What started as a science project because I was bored has [--] Analyst Academies [---] students and 15+ fund clients later has turned into what feels more like a real business with three full-time trainers seven employees office space and an actual 5-year business plan. It has been an incredible honor to teach & mentor so many exceptional young investors. And most days it doesn't feel like work. For those of your who have learned the craft of fundamental investing you know that there is" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1880302051512758745) 2025-01-17T17:11Z 41.2K followers, 32K engagements "The replay to this webinar can be accessed here: To attempt to find the middle path in both our marketing and curriculum efforts this replay will be available broadly for [--] weeks after which time we will make it exclusively available to Fundamental Edge students and alumni. Brett https://www.fundamentedge.com/uber-webinar-replay https://www.fundamentedge.com/uber-webinar-replay Excited for this webinar today where I will walk through nine dimensions of expectations and how those dimensions apply to the current UBER set-up. If you haven't registered link is in the replies. As part of the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1882583564912410805) 2025-01-24T00:17Z 41.2K followers, 19K engagements "WEBINAR: FACTOR RISK MODELS [---] Please join Fundamental Edge on Wednesday Feb 5th at 4:30pm ET for a free webinar with Rich Falk-Wallace. Rich is the Co-Founder & CEO of Arcana an institutional factor risk management platform. Rich brings extensive fundamental investing experience to (Silver Point Viking Citadel) this role and is incredibly thoughtful on the integration of fundamental investing & factor risk management. I will host Rich in a fireside chat format and there will be opportunity for Q&A. Replay will be available (will be sent automatically if you are registered for the Zoom)." [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1885720094648741919) 2025-02-01T16:01Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements "MEETING MANAGEMENT WITH CHATGPT On this thread yesterday someone asked what I thought was a game-changing use case for LLMs in fundamental research. To me a use case near the top of the list is meeting prep. A core dimension of unique insight generation for institutional investors is corporate access - meeting management. Not to virtue signal but throughout my career I have been pretty shocked at the (low) average level of preparation by my fellow fundamental analysts in mgmt meetings. It's common to hear other investors ask basic questions that were just discussed on the last call or can be" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1895131299729547306) 2025-02-27T15:18Z 41.8K followers, 120K engagements "Fwiw despite incredibly rapid market sell-off long/short spread paid seems to be contained (thus far). For purely educational purposes I monitor an equal-sized "Tiger proxy" long/short book and thus far over 3-days there is less than 100bps of long-short spread unwind. In a P&L attribution thus-far market return has been the only notable driver of losses. Obviously this could be taken one of two ways. For hedge funds in a kerfuffle the real pain often doesn't start until spreads go meaningfully upside down. They haven't thus far which is good news. However all else equal 1) rising volatility" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1909348758523199966) 2025-04-07T20:53Z 42.6K followers, 32.6K engagements "AN APPROACH TO MODELING TARIFF EXPOSURE: $NKE EXAMPLE You surely don't care about my macro or geopolitical takes but in an attempt to be helpful in this volatile market environment I thought I would lay out a basic process to analyze and think through tariff exposure from a bottoms up basis. My hunch is buy-side analysts far and wide have been and continue to practice this type of work on their companies to help their PMs navigate this volatile market environment. A foundational framework we teach at Fundamental Edge is a modeling process I was trained to deploy in moments like this and which" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1909623282581803117) 2025-04-08T15:04Z 42.7K followers, 66.4K engagements "STEP 2: Unmitigated Exposure Now that I have this basic COGS decomposition chassis built I can run all sorts of analyses around it. Which helps me run sensitivities and also helps me react quickly to any tape bombs around tariff rate revisions. A starting analysis is the "unmitigated exposure analysis". A 30% blended tariff will raise COGS per shoe by roughly $7 and flow through to a $2.23 hit to EPS (vs. consensus $2.12 for 2025). This first order impact is scary obviously which makes sense in the context of the violent sell-off and heightened volatility. Step 3: Offsets Analysis The odds" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1909623286050570475) 2025-04-08T15:04Z 42.6K followers, [----] engagements "Congrats to Gabe and the Rogo team on the raise We hosted Gabe on our AI Webinar series the Cutting Edge in September link here: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=ESNXXjaYEMg NEW: Rogo which makes a chatbot for investment banking analysts sees its valuation jump from $80mn to $350mn in six months after latest funding round led by Thrive: https://t.co/Eq3Sqi9uJx https://t.co/D7Mw8oAClK https://www.youtube.com/watchv=ESNXXjaYEMg NEW: Rogo which makes a chatbot for investment banking analysts sees its valuation jump from $80mn to $350mn in six months after latest funding round led by Thrive:" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1917664978137670123) 2025-04-30T19:38Z 42.8K followers, 13.6K engagements "LAUNCHING FACTOR ACADEMY: COHORT [--] (MAY 19th) "What is a factor" When I joined a multi-strategy hedge fund as a "beta-neutral factor-constrained" PM I honestly didn't have a coherent answer. Fast forward [--] years factor frameworks have become the analytical chassis for institutional equity portfolios. In a world where factor alpha has become beta and portable alpha strategies are seeing a resurgence it is more important than ever to have a rigorous structured understanding of factors. Whether you are a long only benchmark-indexed PM or a multi-manager PM with an 80% idio constraint" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1920133467372945541) 2025-05-07T15:07Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements "Great brief explainer and awesome of @bennpeifert to put this out there. [--] years ago I had the privilege of spending some time with a sell-side derivatives team (in my $IBKR due diligence process) that gave a similar overview and between 1) spreads 2) pricing sophistication (above my head as a fundamental long/short person) and 3) all the stories they told of the fat spreads and almost risk-free structuring taking the other side of fundamental investors options trades I have always figured it was better to just trade the equity personally (outside of a few specific cases). Many will" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1934874924235280600) 2025-06-17T07:25Z 43.6K followers, 27.3K engagements "BLOOMBERG'S MOAT & AI FOR FINANCE CO-PILOTS Look around for a moment and you see an incredible amount of effort to build an "AI for finance" co-pilot. We are working to compile a comprehensive list of these tools: our list is over [--] and growing (we will release this soon) almost all with impressive teams of either former buy-siders or talented AI engineers. This makes sense to me.the consumer AI models are great for many investment process use cases but have some key limitations (financial data access / stale data risk workflow memory & integration multi-model engineering / "AI to check AI"" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1934984634795962772) 2025-06-17T14:41Z 43.6K followers, 38.4K engagements "Question. I am working on turning the Fundamental Edge Analyst Academy curriculum into a shareable prompt library for investment research (which we will share with students in our AI for Investment Research program). Sharing a Microsoft Word document feels janky. What software systems should I explore to do this Where I can lock my library control permissions and create a group workspace for idea sharing. Anything new & impressive w/ AI-embedded in for recursive prompt generation or prompt follow-up suggestions Not sure if this exists (but it should.)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1935009381172826153) 2025-06-17T16:19Z 43.3K followers, [----] engagements "Testing Deep Research: $UNH and the Medicare Crisis Hedge funds overall have been "slow adopters" of large language models. Early LLMs had poor numeracy limited citations and a tendency for rampant hallucinations.not great attributes of a trustworthy tool for institutional equity analysis. Candidly while I started a webinar series (The Cutting Edge) to explore AI tools in the investment process in the fall of [----] up until about [--] months ago the counsel I would give those who would ask is "pay attention but no need for meaningful process re-engineering" with the view that the cognitive load &" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1937043301972251040) 2025-06-23T07:01Z 43.6K followers, 48.3K engagements "Agree o3 w Deep Research is mind bending. As a trained short seller I have a sort of reflexive distaste for much of the empty hype that comes out of Silicon Valley. But o3 with Deep Research is real. And even with incremental improvements and a coherent data integration strategy I think it will fundamentally change certain investing workflows. I encourage you to experiment with it Deep Research is one of the most incredible pieces of technology. Whenever I want to learn something I have a tailored research report sent to my phone within [--] minutes. It is one piece of AI tech that truly feels" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1937584273630081062) 2025-06-24T18:51Z 43.6K followers, 38.7K engagements "As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for investment research. We have surely missed a bunch and expect this to be an iterative document - reply or DM with what we missed (and love any user feedback on tools you have used or demoed on this list that you liked.or didn't). (Including the screenshots on this tweet and will drop a landing page with PDF download in the replies)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1937951984235254016) 2025-06-25T19:12Z 43.9K followers, 28.1K engagements "Heard a wild AI anecdote today Investment analyst doing research on a company. Finds a piece of information that feels proprietary or hard to know. Presses the LLM for a source "I don't have a source for this information". Presses again "this is from board minutes of XYZ company". Holy crap. I do a little research to check this and it's clearly stated that personal ChatGPT conversations can be used in training. Apparently proprietary internal information from one employee (presumably using a retail not Enterprise version) becomes translated to an investment analyst indirectly via LLM training" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1942682710348382289) 2025-07-08T20:30Z 45.2K followers, 486.3K engagements "@bucketshopcap Fair point" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1942686989301768684) 2025-07-08T20:47Z 43.9K followers, 20.9K engagements "That to me is a fascinating question. I am not a lawyer but in the three part test it is material and constitutes a breach of duty but is it nonpublic if you can query it in an LLM It certainly doesnt pass the Wall Street Journal test and would likely be enough for most funds to restrict trading" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1943056966408187954) 2025-07-09T21:17Z 43.9K followers, [---] engagements "This week and last I had a couple dozen Zooms w/ players in the public equity AI ecosystem (firms analysts & vendors). What surprised me a bit is how many stories I've heard where AI tooling is impacting analyst hiring decisions at fundamental process-oriented long/short firms. "We were going to hire a junior but we stopped the search given what we've done with AI". "I have summer interns coming in and I don't know how to use them since our AI workflow is doing what I had set aside for them to do" "As a PM the chokepoints where I needed analyst help like earnings season become easier to" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1943417404731834538) 2025-07-10T21:09Z 43.9K followers, 24.9K engagements "Excel is the workbench of the fundamental investor so any evolution Excel tools is incredibly exciting. To me the hinge point between the bull/base/bear for the usefulness of AI for fundamental investing lies in how "excel fluent" AI becomes. No legitimate investor can build a portfolio without a library of excel models. Base case - could LLM's become an Excel-equivalent tool for qualitative research A "word calculator" that effectively arms fundamental investors with a team of sell-side juniors to do guided qualitative research (I now have quite a few examples of this type of work that" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1949951800284413981) 2025-07-28T21:55Z 44.9K followers, 59.5K engagements "Fundamental investors: what have been the most useful finance-specific AI tools you have used Has anything on this list (or not on this list) meaningful changed/improved your investing process. Would love to hear. As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for investment research. We have surely missed a bunch and expect this to be an iterative document - reply or DM with what we missed (and love any user feedback on tools you have used or https://t.co/4xlwU66Ilu As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1949987800599920928) 2025-07-29T00:18Z 44.8K followers, 35.4K engagements "Listen I love AI. AI is amazing. I use AI every day. The list of useful AI applications for investment research is growing all the time. This is a cool tool. I really like the demo. It's getting a lot of buzz. The vision is amazing. I can imagine a world where the click of a button builds a three-statement model. I genuinely hope they succeed. But saying "a massive part of finance got automated by AI" is a big statement and I think unfortunately quite wrong. This tool isn't there yet. In my tests there have been many issues with accuracy. It seems as if the retrieval system is the problem" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1950739081207722404) 2025-07-31T02:03Z 44.9K followers, 78.5K engagements "Bumping this list of AI resources that helped me learn the basics last summer and wanted to flag two new videos that are SO GOOD. @karpathy (former head of AI at TSLA and OpenAI co-founder) posted two videos on first principles of LLM for non-technical individuals about [--] months ago. Combined they are about [---] hours run-time. If you haven't already I highly recommend you watch them. By far the best first principles breakdown of LLM's that I have seen. LEARNING AI (FOR THE LUDDITE) My summer project update Do you feel like I do when you listen to @patrick_oshag and @GavinSBaker 's recent" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1950742514069307408) 2025-07-31T02:17Z 44.9K followers, 31.9K engagements "Yes very fair point. I believe however that basing statements on evidence is important. The growing amount of AI Hype is I believe ultimately counterproductive to Wall Street AI adoption. It makes it hard for people to trust what is real and what is not. What you said is sensible but we should frame tools this way - this is a version [--] and it will improve. Sure. Im not trying to be a hater I just feel its my role to pierce some of the hype when I see it. Framing this as we just automated away a key workflow which we clearly did not is just wrong and should not be said" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1950753749733151076) 2025-07-31T03:01Z 44.2K followers, [----] engagements "I'm a big fan of how @AltaFoxCapital lays out ideas: - Bottom line up front: explains the whole pitch on one page (a nice hook) - Structured & systematic approach cohesive flow - Explains "why the opportunity exists" - Validation of all thesis points with data charts & tables - Addresses to risk to avoid the "gotcha" moments - Hits all the analyses that I would think to do (and more) All PMs and firms have different approaches to pitch construction. Some like write-ups some like decks some like bullet points. In my mind this pitch deck is a good example of "best practices" for a young" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1951003977065300428) 2025-07-31T19:36Z 45.6K followers, 44.8K engagements "As a rule when VC's talk about public markets they are most often naively incorrect. But in my experience @bgurley has some good points about the IPO process (except the argument that VC's should also be allowed in on the grift.lol come on man) The IPO process feels like an archaic and broken process. The "testing the waters" meetings the way every deal is over-subscribed (and it's our job to figure out how much sell-side is lying which happens through relationships) the way banks weaponize their IPO window to leverage prime brokerage relationships (the thing that strikes me as the most" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1951013348679815517) 2025-07-31T20:13Z 44.8K followers, 12.4K engagements "Drinks in NYC: Wed August 6th 6-8pm I am in NYC next week and Andrew Carr and I just decided it might be fun to host some drinks on Wednesday. So we have booked the 3rd floor of the Playwright Celtic Pub (732 8th Avenue) and we will see how much damage we can do to the Fundamental Edge corporate card. Everyone welcome: Fundamental Edge alumni anon FinTwit shitposters stock nerds or anyone who wants to come commiserate/celebrate nearing the end of Q2 earnings. No RVSP required" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1951371043148537875) 2025-08-01T19:54Z 45K followers, 52.4K engagements "ENTERPRISE AI TRAINING & CONSULTING I don't often tweet about it but three years into the founding of Fundamental Edge roughly half of our business is direct work with investment funds (multi-managers single managers pensions & family offices). Our open cohorts turned the lights on (Analyst Academy & Factor Academy) and our enterprise engagements keep us growing & evolving (allowing us to build & grow our bench of coaches & trainers). One size doesn't fit all for enterprise so we do a lot of custom & in-person work on the enterprise side. We plan to maintain this approach as we build up our" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1951385619005055073) 2025-08-01T20:52Z 44.9K followers, [----] engagements "I have a few thoughts on this (having made the leap from a hedge fund PM seat to entrepreneurship four years ago). I started in my first hedge fund seat at [--] and I am [--] now. In my experience only a select few individuals make it in a hedge fund seat for more than [--] years (I wasn't one). These people are obviously insanely talented and find some sort of soothing comfort in the repetitive grunt work and also have a masochistic pre-disposition or autistic-numbness to the stresses of the job (i.e. no conception of burn out). But the industry weeds people out naturally as many top performers" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1951712218107744593) 2025-08-02T18:30Z 45K followers, 270.8K engagements "Yes I'm with @liensofnewyork here. AI is just good enough to create the Illusion of Competence for non-practitioners. In reality you lost all institutional investors at a base case of 0% return with the 25% annual growth in a DCF. This prompt tries to do too much. I would very much recommend against this sort of non-anchored use case with generalist models (at least run this through NotebookLM with uploaded filings transcripts financial tear-sheets and process de-composition notes). Even better give examples of actual thesis work (one-shot or few-shot) and take the pains to really break down" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1952462812791660681) 2025-08-04T20:13Z 45K followers, 77.9K engagements "I wasn't sure if it was just me but I have noticed some real deterioration in LLM performance (Sonnet [--] and o3 Deep Research) over the last [--] days. Could be a a prompting/skill issue on my part but the inherent degradation is something I am trying to understand more. A key frustration I have seen in Deep Research reports (a killer use case for investment research in my opinion) is this concept of "recursive slop". More and more the citation list of some of the Gemini and o3 Deep Research reports at 1) getting longer 2) filled with more gibberish seemingly AI-produced results when I don't" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1952769879070917122) 2025-08-05T16:33Z 44.9K followers, 14K engagements "What a fun night. Had a super high caliber group of [--] people roll through. The consensus was we need to do this again so we will in the fall. Stay tuned. Starting in [--] minutes. If in NYC come have a drink on me Starting in [--] minutes. If in NYC come have a drink on me" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1953282338638475436) 2025-08-07T02:29Z 44.9K followers, 28.4K engagements "So I had an argument with my wife maybe [--] months ago and she ran her side of the argument through ChatGPT and Chat agreed with her. She came back to be and said see super intelligence agrees with me As a rebuttal I formed the pastrami sandwich test. I asked Chat if we should add a module in our Analyst Academy (which trains fundamental equity analysts) on how to make a pastrami sandwich. Which is about the dumbest idea I could come up with at the time. Chat thought it as a good idea. Lol. (And it kept ChatGPT out of further marital disputes a win). This sort of sycophantic behavior is really" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1953860442675142728) 2025-08-08T16:46Z 45K followers, 17.7K engagements "Quotes @AskeladdenTX investor letter on AI: "Incidentally if anyone tries to rely on ChatGPT to do investment analysis all I have to say is good luck: it frequently gets very basic facts wrong such as the stock price let alone key details. That doesn't mean it doesn't have incredible use cases but on its own it's a recipe for disaster" ".the most effective ways to use AI are often non-obvious and treating it as 'intelligence' is the conventional sense tends to lead to frustration" "I believe learning to fully leverage AI is one of the most valuable and highest-return activities a public" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1956083220568793191) 2025-08-14T19:59Z 45K followers, 10.3K engagements "Was so excited to see this interview come across my timeline. Mark is truly one of a kind. During my hedge fund career I had the opportunity to cover Aetna (and was a shareholder on and off from [--] to 18). Through dozens of group meetings with Mark over that time I got to know him a bit and came to really admire him. Not only was he probably the most incisive thinker on health policy I ever met but his courage to be himself and not another corporate suit going through the motions was really inspiring (though dont let the interest in Eastern religion fool you he was a shark and made" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1958412414967595222) 2025-08-21T06:14Z 45.1K followers, 27.6K engagements "AI & EARNINGS SEASON To me one of the most compelling frontiers for the deployment of AI in investment research is earnings season. Earnings season is both "report card" time for a thesis of duration and "super bowl" for high velocity investors looking to monetize their intra-quarter research (surveys mgmt meetings channel checks alt data read-throughs). The sell-side corporate access complex & the alternative data industry largely thrive due to the importance of earnings season. For the average stock four earnings print days each year drive 20% of that stocks idiosyncratic volatility (with" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1958586273561797004) 2025-08-21T17:45Z 45.1K followers, [----] engagements "DATA STRATEGY & AI: "THE ESSENTIAL EIGHT" Figuring out what LLMs to use in investment research [--] months ago seemed a lot simpler. NotebookLM was really only open tool with a big enough context window for uploading a lot of documents and o3 with Deep Research was *so much* better than anything else (IMO). And the paid finance-tuned co-pilots were mostly so bad as to be unusable. I think a lot has changed and I personally notice a lot less difference in the Gemini ChatGPT & Claude models. They all seem pretty good to me now. Where I am seeing really differentiated results now is thinking more" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1958956583775609341) 2025-08-22T18:16Z 45.1K followers, [----] engagements "I would argue the flipside against the argument that it will be possible to replace star PMs with AI and I personally think star PMs will only become *more* valuable with AI. For two reasons: One for all the innovation in investment process technology & quantitative AUM over the last decade actual realized dollar alpha is markets has never been higher (sure Tiger cubs used to do 15pts of alpha on $5bn AUM but now multi's do 5pts of alpha on $50bn AUM so the $ alpha is higher and the dramatic rise in quant AUM hasn't compressed alpha pools on a $ basis). Markets have paradoxically become both" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1965818029784347087) 2025-09-10T16:41Z 45.2K followers, 48.7K engagements "@Stephen_A_Crane I had to write something that I can link replay to all the slop in X that says "AI can do anything a hedge fund analyst can do" 😂😂😂" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1965819600471470250) 2025-09-10T16:48Z 45.2K followers, [---] engagements "WITG x FE Fall Undergrad Stock Pitch Competition I am really excited to announce the *third annual* Wharton Investment & Trading Group x Fundamental Edge international stock pitch competition which will take place September 30th at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School. These events have been so fun and I am always inspired by the energy & motivation of the next generation of investment professionals (and constantly stunned by the quality of thesis work.I would have stood zero chance in these competitions when I was an undergrad) Submissions are open now with the deadline of September" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1966556347887218751) 2025-09-12T17:35Z 45.2K followers, [----] engagements "I am hosting two panels at the AI & Value Investing conference at Fordham University on October 3rd (in partnership with Paul Johnson from the Gabelli School and Fundamental Edge instructor) We are still looking for 1-2 more investors to join the "Investing with Generative AI" panel - individuals who are deploying AI to positive effect *currently* on an institutional scale and are open to sharing what they are doing with the roughly [---] person audience. Please DM me if you are interested Love to chat. Brett" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1966562929580666981) 2025-09-12T18:01Z 45.2K followers, [----] engagements "In this frenzy for scaling I think we have become numb to just how large these numbers have become. I'm not making the bull or bear case but I've found myself pointing out this simple observation to people: if OpenAI is indeed able to achieve their stated business model and execute on this model scaling through [----] (per reporting by The Information) OpenAI will be eighteen times more capital dependent than the average tech megacap and seven times more capital dependent than the runner up (Uber). Capital dependency can be a wonderful attribute in a monopolistic or oligopolistic industry (see" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1968356898622837028) 2025-09-17T16:50Z 45.4K followers, 47.7K engagements "One of my primary frustrations as an investor at a single manager fund hedge was the friction around decision making. Deliberate team based decision making is a great approach for identifying long duration investment alpha (9-18m). However as the curve of alpha shifted over time with quants & high velocity multi-managers taking the mantle of incremental price setter away from unlevered long only firms this slow & deliberate decision making process felt more anachronistic to me. A simple but powerful innovation at the multi-managers was to give decision making power to the investors who are" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1968364834858352706) 2025-09-17T17:22Z 45.4K followers, 34K engagements "I've thought a lot about this over time and I think this is so important for young people to understand that for five years I have been teaching this in my class at ASU. The obvious answer to the question of "is it better to buy or rent" is it depends. The blind orthodoxy from both the "it's better to buy" AND the "it's better to rent" is dangerous since a well-timed real estate play is the most accessible path to wealth for the vast majority of people and a poorly timed real estate play can be a huge financial albatross. The foundational skill of learning to underwrite real estate as an" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1970632052900024549) 2025-09-23T23:31Z 45.5K followers, 110.4K engagements "Google drive to few slides from my real estate lecture and my excel file for underwriting: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1n1LC5J5P_2Al01GernKQ15pyQzd2Uw6Tusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1n1LC5J5P_2Al01GernKQ15pyQzd2Uw6Tusp=sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1970632290226303470) 2025-09-23T23:32Z 45.6K followers, [----] engagements "Excited to guest teach a class on idea generation: before & after AI at Columbia Business School today" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1974142886053884207) 2025-10-03T16:01Z 45.6K followers, 18.4K engagements "@UrbanKaoboy Exactly. Why names like $MCK and $CAH are leading the HC tape this year" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1506789635191582721) 2022-03-24T00:26Z 49.9K followers, [--] engagements "@MadThunderdome Nurse staffing $AMN $CCRN" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1521542399595454464) 2022-05-03T17:29Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements "the equity regime. 5) PATTERN RECOGNIZE. I really am a sucker for "priors" or historical situations that can inform the year ahead. JPM Asset Management put together this create chart of YUC (young unprofitable companies) that I thought was a helpful framework. Post the 99-00" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1610346438315343872) 2023-01-03T18:44Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "bubble path to profitability was the key distinction. Those companies that became profitable bounced back those that stayed unprofitable did not. I also really enjoyed this analogue of the 2019-2021 bubble with the 1998-2003 NASDAQ bubble. And the lesson here.bubbles once" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1610346440542552064) 2023-01-03T18:44Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements "Back in the saddle. Just got back into my office after a 5-week [----] mile road trip with my family. And I'll tell you what my little 10x12 Regus office has never felt so peaceful I got fired from Citadel in [----]. I had been on the buy-side for [--] years at that point and that moment became a real fork in the road for me. In true absurd Wall Street fashion my phone lit up with headhunters when the news broke in Reuters. The more publicly you are fired the more other firms want to hire you I guess. I had some really interesting options at some great firms. But I knew what taking that path" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1678901308127072256) 2023-07-11T22:57Z 48.5K followers, 232.5K engagements "INFLATION & THE PERILS OF PRICE-DEPENDENT GROWTH Digesting this recent set of news on consumer price push-back in situations like $MCD $SBUX and $MDLZ has had me thinking about a very basic & critical construct when it comes to analyzing businesses: how much of the growth is coming from volume and how much is coming from price This is a very basic distinction but one that has serious implications for stock selection. Let's discuss. Surprisingly disaggregation of revenue growth is a dynamic that the market often seems to misunderstand in my opinion and a dimension that the sell-side tends to" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1787540423629799755) 2024-05-06T17:50Z 50K followers, 54.5K engagements "For those interested I noticed the Point72 Academy Investment Analyst Program for Experienced Professionals is now taking applications. It's a unique program in the sense that it offers 1) a 10-month paid training and 2) they seem to genuinely encourage applications from non-traditional backgrounds (not sure the hit rate on these sorts of candidates but few buy-side jobs are actively soliciting political science phd's or geothermal engineers lol). I know they get a lot of applications for a small number of seats but for the closet stock junkies out there stuck in the wrong seat this can be a" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1825666153454403853) 2024-08-19T22:48Z 50K followers, 59.9K engagements "THE BUY-SIDE COMP SHEET One of the saddest things about leaving an institutional hedge fund is loads of your infrastructure gets locked away forever. Well I'm on a journey to rebuild many of my investment process architecture tools to try to give our students & clients some examples of tools that have been helpful to me. Doing this job well is about effective information distillation and process velocity and properly constructed tools can help a lot. I wanted to talk first about the concept of a comp sheet. I've seen content on how to build an investment-banking-style trading comps or" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1848782033276817621) 2024-10-22T17:42Z 47.9K followers, 193.8K engagements "Meetings done for the week (year) Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Henry McVey (KKR) [----] outlooks fresh off the printer and the kids still in school for another [---] hours. No better feeling. https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/documents/insights/apollo-global-2025-economic-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2025-outlook-glass-still-half-full.pdf https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/documents/insights/apollo-global-2025-economic-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2025-outlook-glass-still-half-full.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1870195328193871960) 2024-12-20T19:51Z 50K followers, 72.4K engagements "$UBER has been a fun case study evolving in front of our eyes real-time recently. Fears about Waymo & autonomous vehicles reached a fever pitch in Q4 with UBER declining nearly 30% on an idio basis from Nov [--] to mid-December. We have seen a little bounce since then but investors are left considering how to weigh thematic / terminal value concerns of AVs against very strong fundamental momentum in the business (Street expects +30% EBITDA growth in '25 with strong FCF margins) and relatively undemanding valuation against those fundamentals. In my career knowing when to fade or press terminal" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1877751987309089109) 2025-01-10T16:18Z 48.2K followers, 38.5K engagements "Excited for this webinar today where I will walk through nine dimensions of expectations and how those dimensions apply to the current UBER set-up. If you haven't registered link is in the replies. As part of the "light" diligence process I ran on $UBER I had to check out the AV competition and take my first Waymo ride. I took the [--] boys and mom was a little nervous (can you tell lol) The good news is that we made is successfully to Dairy Queen (despite one rapid deceleration period in a school zone when school was out of session) Also Mom tailgated us to "make sure we were safe". TLDR I" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1882128587882713180) 2025-01-22T18:09Z 48.2K followers, 34.9K engagements "Agree this seems like a great use case for AI/LLM. Would love to learn more at some point. Think the nuance with Bloomberg/CapIQ/Factset is they pull data right from the 3-statements with incredibly accuracy. But miss on many simple tasks that require even one higher degree of nuance.such as detailed revenue breakdown adjusted metrics restatements. And whiff badly on more complicated situations like complex diluted share count adjustments (try pitching a stock at a top [---] hedge fund with an incorrect diluted share count number and report back.) This is why the door was opened to outsourced" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1891583421648077306) 2025-02-17T20:20Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements "LLM PROMPT TO EVALUATE A NEW CEO: $SBUX I continue to tinker with LLM's and how they may be applied in the institutional equity research process. There are all sorts of challenges in using LLM's in institutional equity research. In my mind the three biggest are: 1) Trust / hallucinations (and the derivative risk of outsourcing the artisanal process of "connecting the dots"). While it seems to have gotten better hallucinations haven't gone away and LLMs continue to make a number of stupid & dangerous mistakes. A review layer is critical. 2) Data paywall / the good data is "hidden" - there" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1914694781462343979) 2025-04-22T14:56Z 48.3K followers, 66.3K engagements "From Artificial Intelligence: A Guide For Thinking Humans by Melanie Mitchell. Will it be different this time We shall see" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1952805937544310994) 2025-08-05T18:56Z 50K followers, 11.1K engagements "I started recently on the recommendation of a friend using Wispr primarily to interact with ChatGPT. It's a wonderful tool for LLMs because short inputs can be quite vague and not necessarily elicit optimal responses from an LLM. Typing a few paragraphs in can be cognitively more burdensome. But speaking into Wispr for a minute or so and very deeply exploring what you're trying to complete I have found to be quite effective and much faster. It can feel like magic talking into Wispr in ChatGPT for a minute or so asking ChatGPT to take that rambling and turn it into a prompt and then running" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1976533903914750322) 2025-10-10T06:22Z 45.7K followers, 69K engagements "Highly encourage a @JaredKubin follow Has been posting super helpful dispatches from recent factor carnage My viewfinding alpha in factors is hard but without adopting a factor lens its almost impossible to understand why stocks move up & down in 2025factor risk management has become self-reinforcing in that with $1tn+ of factor investing AUM and hundreds of billions of factor constrained multi-manager factor violence (positioning & unwind) is a more and more common explanation of stock movements And without understanding why an opportunity exists its hard to build the conviction to make the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1979330772096962787) 2025-10-17T23:36Z 47.9K followers, 59K engagements "Great discussion and cool this was shared publicly 👀AI Investor rapid-fire debate datacenters NVDA META GOOG AAPL MSFT SK Hynix Memory Robots "Lifecording" open source maintenance capex decline of SaaS Anduril + more. -Brad Gerstner (Altimeter) -Andrew Homan (Maverick) -Josh Wolfe (Lux) -Chase Coleman (Tiger) https://t.co/61PfHQbitq 👀AI Investor rapid-fire debate datacenters NVDA META GOOG AAPL MSFT SK Hynix Memory Robots "Lifecording" open source maintenance capex decline of SaaS Anduril + more. -Brad Gerstner (Altimeter) -Andrew Homan (Maverick) -Josh Wolfe (Lux) -Chase Coleman (Tiger)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1979641436061802581) 2025-10-18T20:11Z 47.9K followers, 53K engagements "tell me how rich u are without actually telling me. tell me how rich u are without actually telling me" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1981549892029075951) 2025-10-24T02:34Z 48K followers, 52.7K engagements "Don't know $ABNB well (and no position) but stock has had two obvious problems leading to quite a long stretch of underperformance. 1) High starting valuation. Came out at 30x EV/Revenue and 90x EV/EBITDA for a business that in retrospect looks like it was in the 6th inning of its growth story. Valuation obviously matters in stock selection and ABNB is a great case study of that.despite nearly quadrupling revenue since [----] and becoming quite profitable & cash generative it was just too expensive post IPO. Five years later the stock has grown into it's multiple and trades at a seemingly more" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1985901776160375264) 2025-11-05T02:47Z 50K followers, 107.2K engagements ""The skill isn't in finding the data anymore it's in knowing what is signal vs. noise"- @JaredKubin banger quote from our just recorded guest speaker session. Couldn't agree more. AI makes it much faster to identify the envelope of publicly available information on a company. This is great news. But having the data is just the first step. The importance of context & discernment to look at that envelope and identify "what matters" has always been critical but in a sea of AI-generated research materials becomes an even more critical success factor for the fundamental investor. How to develop" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1986486158239682707) 2025-11-06T17:29Z 48.2K followers, 60K engagements "Ive been thinking a lot about this question: if AI enables a 30%-3x uplift in investment research productivity (my base caserange depends on duration & coverage approach) what do analysts & PMs do with their excess time The knee jerk reaction is I can process more ideas but Im not so sure how I feel about that answer. If a PM of a 12-person shop asks each analyst for [--] great idea per month and each analyst can now produce [--] great ideas per month - does the portfolio double in position count / does sizing get cut in half More idea flow is better than less but at some point there can be *too" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1990833106819952801) 2025-11-18T17:22Z 48.3K followers, 130.6K engagements "This past week I tried @tryshortcutai an AI agent for Excel. I did NOT ask it to one-shot a cookie cutter high-level DCF model that spreadsheet AI providers seem to LOVE to put in their promos (I cant remember a single time when I was asked to build one of these on the job). https://t.co/oAFfDv4b9w This past week I tried @tryshortcutai an AI agent for Excel. I did NOT ask it to one-shot a cookie cutter high-level DCF model that spreadsheet AI providers seem to LOVE to put in their promos (I cant remember a single time when I was asked to build one of these on the job). https://t.co/oAFfDv4b9w" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1998509068571521327) 2025-12-09T21:44Z 48.3K followers, 27.5K engagements "AI Workflow: 13F Top Holdings Report One thing I like to do when I'm looking for new ideas is to check the 13Fs of a few dozen hedge funds I respect for new & high conviction ideas. While I don't want to outsource my thinking there is no copyright protection on a great idea and the funds I choose I know to have strong due diligence and a thoughtful portfolio inclusion process. Which is a positive signal on balance. (And one of my favorite personal strategies is a biotech 13F overlay which has a crazy good [--] year back test.post-COVID hangover notwithstanding.though XBI breaking out.). This is" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2000979008889217417) 2025-12-16T17:19Z 50K followers, 51.3K engagements "2026 Market/Macro Outlooks Even fours since I've retired from managing intuitional money I still get an irresponsible amount of joy from sifting through year ahead outlook pieces in the last couple weeks of the year. My printer is working overtime. Dropping [--] outlooks I have stumbled upon so far in replies and PLEASE drop any links in the replies as you see any publicly available (still waiting for my favorite McVey from KKR)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2000989057661460830) 2025-12-16T17:59Z 49.9K followers, 96.8K engagements "To do so would imply an expectation that these strategists actually have an ability to predict the future. Which they do not (no one can reliably predict macro. For sure I cant). If anything they observe and articulate market consensus and at best raise interesting things that I havent thought about" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2001012725166825491) 2025-12-16T19:33Z 50K followers, [----] engagements "Updated with Morgan Stanley UBS & Stifel. Think we hit a pretty good critical mass of sell-side & asset management reports. Many thanks to everyone who e-mailed me Updated Google drive with reports from KKR GS (full) and BAML (econ & equity). If you have any other non-watermarked reports please send them along and i will add (brett @ fundamentedge(dot)com) Updated Google drive with reports from KKR GS (full) and BAML (econ & equity). If you have any other non-watermarked reports please send them along and i will add (brett @ fundamentedge(dot)com)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2001683230488227876) 2025-12-18T15:57Z 48.6K followers, 50.5K engagements "Said very well by @LacertaXG1 and I agree directionally with long the PM short the analyst with the disclaimer that most observers (certainly quants) underestimate how much of the alpha mosaic is generated off the desk - mgmt meetings bus tours / HQ visits trade shows and in deep two way phone calls with mgmt/IR consultants formers sell-side trading desks / spec sales other buy-siders and supply chain contacts. Real repeatable alpha doesnt just sit in the 10-K and for real fundamental reasons (I.e. relationship building off desk travel) the real sweet spot of the alpha mosaic is not touchable" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2005366050402025591) 2025-12-28T19:51Z 50K followers, 13.6K engagements "Perhaps but a LONG line of failed quantamental strategies is evidence of how difficult it is to ingest the fundamental alpha mosaic into a quant forecast and thats with all the proprietary fundamental outputs those strategies generated. Citadel probably the only one who has made it work at scale. This is in the Ill believe it when is see it but skeptical until I see it bucket for me https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005371419748950116 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005371419748950116" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2005371419748950116) 2025-12-28T20:12Z 49.9K followers, [---] engagements "My Mount Rushmore of stock pickers My litmus test: - Trigger pulling authority on individual fundamentally-researched stocks (i.e. rules out Ken G Jim Simons & the quants) - Permanently changed stock picking at the highest level of capital allocation Buffett: business quality & long duration compounding Robertson: winners/losers & research edge Cohen: idea velocity & alpha machine Druck: macro-aware stock picking & regime awareness) Agree/disagree See arguments for Peter Lynch & Phil Fisher. My [--] year old got a brokerage account for his recent birthday so I'm putting together some materials" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2010211921799328108) 2026-01-11T04:47Z 50K followers, 24.4K engagements "Feedback on Claude for Excel so far has been quite poor from the handful of buy-side accounts/friends I have been monitoring & speaking with. It's on my to-do list to play with so will come back with my own thoughts at some point. Effectively new story same as the old story (data reliability & context window / multi-document retrieval / attention degradation issues). These are really hard problems to solve that require multiple vectors of improvement to hit 99%+ reliability (clean data better foundation models & great engineering). Clean data alone is much harder than most think. AI for Excel" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2016274627040051319) 2026-01-27T22:18Z 50.3K followers, 72.3K engagements "Testing Deep Research: $MCK and a Cap Deploy Deep Dive Continuing to tinker with ideas for Deep Research workflows. One area I spent *a lot* of my time analyzing as an analyst & PM was capital deployment. For most of my career I covered healthcare services and most of the big companies in my coverage had very steady LSD-HSD EBIT growth profiles. But many of the companies would turn this tepid EBIT growth profile into more interesting low/mid-teens EPS CAGRS via steady capital deployment (mostly buy-backs but episodic M&A). Many healthcare services companies became "slow compounders" holding" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1937761147052286180) 2025-06-25T06:33Z 50.4K followers, 23.1K engagements "Just make it through the excellent recent podcast where @NicolaiTang1 hosted Mala Gaonkar. She talked about how technology has supported automated 3rd party data checks and firms like Lone Pine (and now SurgoCap) do that in a systematic way. Using data to both idea generate and babysit existing ideas is now a common and best practice at the highest levels of institutional investing. What is insanely exciting is that the recent improvements in the Claude complex really start the journey of democratizing this systematic 3rd party data tracking (see below). Sure much data will still sit behind a" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2016668076495032821) 2026-01-29T00:21Z 50.5K followers, 68K engagements "I asked my wife for a book for Christmas. She crushed it:" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2005708932887855321) 2025-12-29T18:34Z 50.7K followers, 429.8K engagements "Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a voting mechanism in the short term but a weighing mechanism in the long term. I wish I could ask Ben when the moment of "weighing" happens because it seems more to me that stock prices are a perpetual voting mechanism constantly priced on the forward look. The central tension of securities valuation is that virtually all of the data we have to analyze a company is a snapshot of the past yet valuation the present value" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021798992192143728) 2026-02-12T04:10Z 50.7K followers, 79.8K engagements "Been doing this for a while and its shocking how well it works (used to have Claude write and ChatGPT execute but now execute with Opus 4.6) Step [--]. Brain dump into a notes app with Wispr Flow. Disambiguation is key so force yourself to ramble on the task for at least [--] minutes (feels awkward for a while then you get used to it). Short ambiguous workflow articulation will generate inconsistent results. I do this while walking my dog and my neighbors must think Im crazy Step [--]. Copy those notes into ChatGPT and ask to turn it into a prompt. For highly complex tasks ask for a series of prompts." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022177845582475349) 2026-02-13T05:15Z 50.7K followers, 157.6K engagements "@virtu101 Interesting. Will try to figure that out. Any tips or resources helpful to learn how to get started" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2022194671687188723) 2026-02-13T06:22Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements "This was a very high signal podcast and I havent seen any other public podcasts with Mala - I found it very helpful: https://youtu.be/GUc4krTatOMsi=w3S-zuxt6GWhR7qr https://youtu.be/GUc4krTatOMsi=w3S-zuxt6GWhR7qr" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2016668310990200861) 2026-01-29T00:22Z 50.7K followers, 14.9K engagements "expanding on this point i asked as a follow-up: I was simply curious what would come up. Once upon a time I was a Page [--] WGO shareholder so I covered this thing closely. Never did I think to track Elkhart County employment trends as a production capacity proxy Throw all this into the soup and you have an automated due diligence engine. Certainly would require a real engineering & compliance layer on top (no asset manager in the world is going to give Claude Code full desktop control). But it feels like this is no within reach. Exciting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019514989921595678" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019514989921595678) 2026-02-05T20:54Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements "@blueprintsmb22 captured a lot of the nuance of AI in investment research very well. It's easy for software coders to write long think pieces about how AI is going to destroy Wall Street jobs. A software developer hunched over code conducting verifiable work (either the app works or it doesn't) naturally wants to apply that experience to other verticals (without the self-awareness to know better). The AI use cases today in institutional-grade I would say are quite marginal: consuming deep research reports a bit of web scraping & data work and low-trust "first cut" idea generation & idea" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2021691246369288563) 2026-02-11T21:02Z 50.7K followers, 12.8K engagements "No just a test that I developed over the years wading into TV debates as [--] years felt too short and [--] years too long. Its arbitrary but generally aligns with market assuming FCF declines so it has worked when my expectation gap is it will grow not shrink and makes the thesis a pretty simple bet https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021809056420442137 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021809056420442137" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2021809056420442137) 2026-02-12T04:50Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements "@BigBoyBern80872 oh that's an error thanks for catching - will fix (not capitalized and discounted [--] years so won't move it a lot)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2021805190362673589) 2026-02-12T04:34Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements "@taipan254 It usually shakes out to 8-10% year ahead yields with growing FCF stream vs. 14% flat FCF yield. I just find more of those in the way I invest (growing businesses where market for some observable reason questions growth and it becomes a simple "over" bet on sustained growth)" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2021807081792397604) 2026-02-12T04:42Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements "I went through this exact journey myself. After [--] years climbing the ladder at hedge funds in NYC and ultimately reaching my goal of becoming a portfolio manager I had a major internal crisis. I had the analytical capabilities to do the job but my nervous system wasn't wired in a way that aligned with navigating the volatility of the marketplace (and workforce) while also finding internal peace & joy. I worked with a coach and he asked me "is this what you want to be doing at 50". I was burned out and no longer found meaning in seeking to generate 300bps of alpha for institutional LPs - the" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/1981743495611298271) 2025-10-24T15:24Z 50.7K followers, 1.4M engagements "Claude Getting GOOD: $DKNG Data Tracker All the buzz on X seems to be about Claude lately (Claude Code Claude Cowork Claude Excel) so I threw Claude Max this request this morning: This was my entire prompt and what I will show you below took me about [--] minutes. I didn't expect this to work (it doesn't work in Gemini or ChatGPT though both attempted to write the code and would be somewhat helpful in this exercise if I knew any python.I don't). To my delight Claude actually built me a 6-tab tracker in Excel that rolled up total OSB handle & OSB gross gaming revenue. It wasn't perfect (while" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2015105520882094261) 2026-01-24T16:52Z 50.7K followers, 185.4K engagements "Claude: Technical Analysis Prompt $IGV $DKNG I prepared for my first hedge fund job by reading all the Buffett letters dismissing technical analysis as unhelpful witchcraft. That shifted a bit over my career. While I still do not believe in technical analysis as a primary decision tool for stock selection personally I was surprised to observe how many high level hedge fund PMs consider technical analysis as a secondary overlay in stock selection particulaly around entry & exit. One multi-manager PM friend advocated for a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) designation telling me it helped him" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019108791518917017) 2026-02-04T18:00Z 50.7K followers, 38K engagements "Claude Experiments: Google Trends $WGO I saw Tony Berkman (founder of Majestic former Two Sigma.one of the most respected alt data guys around) post this comment on his LinkedIn yesterday and it really resonated with me particularly the part about how data vendors "make (their) client's lives easier by shortening the path from non-proprietary data to insights". To an outsider there might be some skepticism about how non-proprietary data can actually be a source of alpha (aren't markets supposed to be efficient) but particularly when considered against the mosaic of broader research many would" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019511375723393203) 2026-02-05T20:40Z 50.7K followers, 26.1K engagements "What people miss about the financial terminal oligopoly is the true moat of these businesses is an aggregation-disaggregation moat. These businesses are essentially group purchasing organizations for financial data. Bloomberg for example spends an estimated $3bn annually on acquiring producing & curating data then slices that cost across 325k terminal users at $30k/seat. No individual buy-side firm could replicate that content stack on their own.not even close. In my opinion AI actually strengthens this moat not the other way around as AI allows an explosion in data driven decision making" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019848810177130593) 2026-02-06T19:00Z 50.7K followers, 77.8K engagements "This is gnarly. Of the [--] stocks in the S&P [---] that are down more than 15% YTD only TWO have been driven majorly by negative EPS revisions (CZR and MOH). After revenue revisions have been 0.0%. The median NTM P/E of this group has compressed from 20.8x to 16.1x with [--] of the [--] trading to a 12x P/E or lower. Cue the "our job is to understand what makes the multiple move" post from Dmitriy but yikes that is painful. Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021806729324064926) 2026-02-12T04:41Z 50.7K followers, 50.7K engagements "Analyze the 13F institutional ownership for **TICKER** over the last [--] quarters. **Data Source:** SEC EDGAR 13F filings **Analysis Requirements:** [--]. **Big Moves Analysis** - Identify the largest position increases (new positions and additions) each quarter - Identify the largest position decreases (exits and reductions) each quarter - Flag any positions that changed by more than 25% quarter-over-quarter - Note any notable new entrants or complete exits [--]. **Owner Type Breakdown** - Categorize holders into: Hedge Funds Fundamental Long-Only Quant/Systematic Index/Passive (Vanguard BlackRock" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2022182511431090384) 2026-02-13T05:34Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements "@virtu101 better idea than using the Claude excel add-in" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2022188762789478425) 2026-02-13T05:59Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements "@virtu101 Awesome thank you very much" [X Link](https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2022197613874032853) 2026-02-13T06:34Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements "LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis - How" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011469004846882830) 2026-01-14T16:02Z 50.7K followers, 21.4K engagements "This is a fascinating paper that should be required reading for all Buffett-style value investors In the Graham & Dodd era a value anchor actually did exist via dividend payout & asset values.it was possible to identify a 50c dollar laying on the ground (compounded by inefficiencies in information gathering). In the classic Graham world stocks were claims on near-term cash & assets and you could observe the "weighing machine". This paper articulates what I think we have all observed in markets.duration has expanded as dividend payout ratios have declined and there is less of a tangible value" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022188541502226435) 2026-02-13T05:58Z 50.7K followers, 52.2K engagements "@FundamentEdge https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X25001229 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X25001229" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021957368884736134) 2026-02-12T14:39Z [---] followers, 51.9K engagements "Been doing this for a while and its shocking how well it works (used to have Claude write and ChatGPT execute but now execute with Opus 4.6) Step [--]. Brain dump into a notes app with Wispr Flow. Disambiguation is key so force yourself to ramble on the task for at least [--] minutes (feels awkward for a while then you get used to it). Short ambiguous workflow articulation will generate inconsistent results. I do this while walking my dog and my neighbors must think Im crazy Step [--]. Copy those notes into ChatGPT and ask to turn it into a prompt. For highly complex tasks ask for a series of prompts." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022177845582475349) 2026-02-13T05:15Z 50.7K followers, 157.6K engagements "describe the problem to ChatGPT. ask ChatGPT to generate a prompt. paste the prompt to Claude. works all the time" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022007613194744252) 2026-02-12T17:59Z 34.4K followers, 865.3K engagements "This is gnarly. Of the [--] stocks in the S&P [---] that are down more than 15% YTD only TWO have been driven majorly by negative EPS revisions (CZR and MOH). After revenue revisions have been 0.0%. The median NTM P/E of this group has compressed from 20.8x to 16.1x with [--] of the [--] trading to a 12x P/E or lower. Cue the "our job is to understand what makes the multiple move" post from Dmitriy but yikes that is painful. Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021806729324064926) 2026-02-12T04:41Z 50.7K followers, 50.7K engagements "Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a voting mechanism in the short term but a weighing mechanism in the long term. I wish I could ask Ben when the moment of "weighing" happens because it seems more to me that stock prices are a perpetual voting mechanism constantly priced on the forward look. The central tension of securities valuation is that virtually all of the data we have to analyze a company is a snapshot of the past yet valuation the present value" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021798992192143728) 2026-02-12T04:10Z 50.7K followers, 79.8K engagements "KICK OFF TODAY: Our February cohort of the Analyst Academy kicks off in just under one hour with our live orientation. If you are looking to level up your career and gain exposure to an institutional-grade approach to investment research we would love to have you" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021340977538138579) 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements "https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2011469004846882830 LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior https://t.co/Tg3m8Dqug1 https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2011469004846882830 LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior https://t.co/Tg3m8Dqug1" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021341060971233721) 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements "https://fundamental-edge.teachable.com/p/academy-feb2026 https://fundamental-edge.teachable.com/p/academy-feb2026" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021340979425665400) 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@FundamentEdge Brett Caughran
Brett Caughran posts on X about investment, stocks, if you, bloomberg the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks technology brands social networks cryptocurrencies automotive brands travel destinations fashion brands exchanges
Social topic influence investment, stocks #4222, if you, bloomberg, money, brett, ai, $googl, in the, has been
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @virtu101 @urbankaoboy @fundamentedgecom @jaredkubin @gavinsbaker @bucketshopcap @blueprintsmb22 @patrickoshag @notaburnerjack @liensofnewyork @hedgineering @karpathy @tseides @bigboybern80872 @taipan254 @goderguy @scurvecap @investmenttalkk @viggykrishnan @orrdavid
Top assets mentioned Brett (BRETT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) CITADEL (CITADEL) McDonald's Corp (MCD) McKesson Corporation (MCK) Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Basilisk (BSX) Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) Humana Inc (HUM) Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX) Danaher Corporation (DHR) Veralto Corporation (VLTO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@Goderguy @S_curvecap @InvestmentTalkk My [--] centsR/R is nearly all that matters but calculating R/R is not a rote scientific process. Fundamentally its about having a better crystal ball. The past informs yes. But many elements go into calcing a R/R"
X Link 2021-06-23T14:07Z 41.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@UrbanKaoboy Yeah thats possible. Correlation of asset prices to fed balance sheet is pretty stark. To me this is a lock in growing FCF streams at low multiples point in time. Will I get paid in [--] months or [--] years Dont know"
X Link 2022-03-24T00:16Z 45.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@UrbanKaoboy But I use measure of prospective 3-year double to measure value. Through most of [----] I only found it in small caps unique situations. Not I see it in many large caps names like $BSX and $CZR and $HUM. Through my career when I see that Ive usually not had to wait [--] years"
X Link 2022-03-24T00:19Z 45.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@viggy_krishnan $DGX handled it well. Told people from day [--] its a temporary benefit dont get too excited dont capitalize the benefitkept P/E under control and mitigated the hangover"
X Link 2022-05-06T05:27Z 42.3K followers, [--] engagements
".margin dynamics of their business or new products/segments which can give you a helpful edge in modeling out margin stories like MA. 7) BELOW THE LINE - INTEREST TAX SHARES: This is often an ignored by sell-side just flat-line current state. True a below-the-line"
X Link 2022-07-15T19:20Z 40K followers, [--] engagements
"SCALING A MULTI-MANAGER TEAM I was going through some of my materials today in creation of Academy modules and I found a deck that I put together in summer '20 (post my [--] pod PM jobs and post quant-fund consulting gig) when I was interviewing with a large multi-manager as a PM"
X Link 2022-09-26T20:34Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements
"So there we go. Team Caughran. It didn't come to fruition. And I'm FAR from the best pod PM to ever live (evidence: I didn't get the job). But I hope there are some frameworks in here that can help you if you are at a pod team scaling right now or in the future"
X Link 2022-09-26T20:34Z 40.8K followers, [--] engagements
"IDEA VELOCITY As a buy-side analyst (hedge fund long only family office) your role on a most basic level is to support the alpha generation of the portfolio. You do this by either providing research support to other's ideas (from PM or senior analyst) or proposing your own"
X Link 2022-12-07T20:01Z 39.9K followers, [--] engagements
"and hopefully comes around to your outlook the Market view Converges to your Internal view and that price movement is the source of your alpha generation. The best traders/investors have a repeatable process to correctly anticipating that convergence. HOPE THAT IS HELPFUL"
X Link 2023-04-21T04:33Z 39.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm really excited to join the University of Oxford and the Oxford Alpha Fund this Friday April 28th to discuss frameworks for investing the the healthcare sector (which I did professionally at Maverick Capital D.E Shaw Citadel & Schonfeld)"
X Link 2023-04-24T21:26Z 40K followers, 19.8K engagements
"If you agree with me your dimensions for assessing & ultimately compensating junior analysts should be more focused INPUT than OUTPUT. As the investment professional matures and earns more responsibility that balance should shift more to output in my opinion"
X Link 2023-05-16T16:34Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"COMPENSATION As a PM I never loved being backed into a corner on expected levels of compensation. In an ideal world in a team of 4-8 people I would have no conveyance of comp levels and thus complete degrees of freedom at the end of the year. We don't live in that world"
X Link 2023-05-16T16:34Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"5 THINGS I WISH I KNEW AS A FIRST TIME HEDGE FUND PORTFOLIO MANAGER I've had some DMs / e-mails over the last few months seeking advice on the move from a single manager analyst seat to a multi-manager PM seat which I thought I would tackle on this fine Friday afternoon If you"
X Link 2023-07-15T03:13Z 35.3K followers, 442K engagements
"@orrdavid Agree with many of these points. I've wondered if there is room in the market for a more fundamental-investing driven pod with less tight risk controls. But it's hard to criticize the net returns from these shops. Even after a very high fee burden LPs have done very well"
X Link 2023-07-15T18:09Z 34.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Really sorry to hear about the closure of the Brookfield hedge fund. [--] employees and [--] investment professionals impacted. I've been there. On a "bloody Tuesday" in Feb of [----] me and [--] of my very talented friends lost their jobs when Citadel closed Aptigon. While I look back at that day as a great blessing it really sucked at the time. For anyone impacted I'm happy to help how I can. DMs are open or e-mail me at brett@fundamentedge.com. Even if it's just a [--] min chat. For any investment firms looking to hire these can be fantastic opportunities to bring on A+ talent. HR people DM or"
X Link 2023-07-27T20:25Z 43.9K followers, 118.7K engagements
"A strategy I encourage my ASU students to study in our Money [---] session (i.e. things I wish people told me about money at 22) Like a stock price matters. This wont work in all metros at all times in all interest rate environments. But when it works its beautiful. Learning to underwrite real estate is a really valuable skill a key skill I will teach my sons"
X Link 2023-08-21T16:16Z 34.7K followers, 28.3K engagements
"Thoughtful thread & agree with a lot of this A debate I've had with HF friends for a decade.when does the alpha get "arb'ed" away Thought a LOT about this The best mental model I can come up with is that of pareto distribution which suggests that in any productive system the square root of participants drive half the production Applied to the HF world it means that just showing up at as PM doesn't mean you "deserve" $50m of P&L on a $1bn book. So just because we have more multi-PM capital doesn't magically compress alpha pools for all participants. Is capital & number of smart investors"
X Link 2023-09-07T17:24Z 34.5K followers, 94.2K engagements
"BEAT THE PODS: A 7-POINT RECIPE FOR SINGLE MANAGERS There has been some fun discussion here recently about the trend from single manager hedge funds (SMs) to multi-manager hedge funds (MMs or "pods"). Which is very sensical after a year like [----] where there was a big performance differential between most pods and most SMs. With many SMs well below high-water marks a year like '22 can also accelerate talent flow to MMs. In my career I had the really educational experience of both working at a very well run single-manager fund as well as three well run & well known multi-PM funds. In my role"
X Link 2023-09-08T19:40Z 44K followers, 462.6K engagements
"EXCITING NEWS: Fundamental Edge is co-hosting an undergraduate stock pitch competition this fall at Wharton Submissions window will likely open in [--] weeks so stay tuned for more details The finalist presentations will take place on-campus Thursday October 19th in Philadelphia In the meantime I am working to create a stellar panel of [--] judges. Looking for PMs or senior analysts with institutional investing experience who have a keen eye for pitch evaluation. Ideally from a firm with some stature with the students in a dream world with individual name recognition with the students If you would"
X Link 2023-09-08T21:04Z 34.7K followers, 21.4K engagements
"Im with you @JaredKubin - Ive long thought there is an opportunity for a different kind of pod. A diversified team of strong analysts. Just let them pick stocks and let them loose to be creative and aggressive. Manage the risk at center book and let it be a bit looser. Allow leans sector bets etc. Yeah maybe its only 2-3x leverage but the gross alpha should be 6-8% not 2-4%. And it could be a much more attractive landing place for the SM talent than the more relative value hyper risk focused pod ecosystem. Hell spin your top people out and run a downstream seeding operation on your most"
X Link 2023-09-09T04:02Z 35.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I don't know anything about $NVDA Which is perfect. If you are a junior buy-side analyst faced with the common task to "take a look at $NVDA and let me know what you think" you likely don't either. No domain knowledge no historical understanding of the business no grasp on the key drivers no sense of what is baked into the current stock price and no sense of the risk/reward on the stock. I honestly didn't know what GPU stood for until I googled it this morning. I'm using my naivety of the the hottest stock in AI to prove a point. There is art to investing but there is also science. At"
X Link 2023-09-13T17:58Z 35.5K followers, 251.7K engagements
"@GavinSBaker Great point. $UNH IR told me one time they get more [---] than [---] area codes dialing into their earnings calls. Astounding"
X Link 2023-09-17T16:07Z 34.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@bucketshopcap @liensofnewyork Totally agree. Also believe the center book / quant overlay is a lot harder to execute than would seem. Firms like Citadel have done that with Alpha Tracker and that is a very very hard thing to replicate"
X Link 2023-09-19T15:39Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Three things we will discuss in $NVDA call. 1) The [--] analyses that I want to do to develop a thesis on NVDA (value decomp capex modeling reverse P/E 7-year model monkey math revision)"
X Link 2023-09-20T20:07Z 35.3K followers, 45.4K engagements
"I am SUPER excited to announce the official launch of the WITG (Wharton Investment & Trading Group) x Fundamental Edge Fall [----] Undergraduate Stock Pitch Competition I am joined with a truly exceptional group of judges including @pmje73 @alixpasquet @FokinArtem Eric Wolff Derek Vincent (MM PM) and Andrew Greier (head of Analyst Due Diligence at Millennium) - I promise you this will an intense panel of judges that will force you to up your pitch game And a great venue to express you abilities to a group of firms hungry for top analyst talent. The winning team will all earn FREE TUITION to the"
X Link 2023-09-26T21:42Z 34.5K followers, 18.8K engagements
"FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: SPIN-OFFS I was poking around today and I noticed that $DHR is spinning off its water business Veralto (VLTO). Caveat I spent about [--] minutes digging in but for a company that mgmt is guiding to MSD organic revenue growth and 30-40bps implied margin expansion 18x EBITDA didn't scream bargain. What gives I have had a long journey investing in spin-offs and I'd like to share what I've learned along the way. And more importantly how I think dynamics around spin-off equities have shifted over the years. The classic theory around spin-off investing is this: the parent company"
X Link 2023-09-29T22:26Z 39.4K followers, 133.8K engagements
"My [--] cents on this news. The beauty of the multi-manager model is that when done well the P&L stream produces a nearly pure alpha stream (albeit levered). That's insanely valuable for an LP who is already underwriting other factors like beta credit risk interest rate risk etc. to know in an allocation to an MM I get DD+ uncorrelated returns. I don't think there is any debate that the MM's have tapped into a giant alpha pool of short & intermediate fundamental alpha. And I don't think that this alpha pool will go away (outside of low probability that quants harnessing super-intelligence and"
X Link 2023-10-07T17:53Z 34.7K followers, 126.1K engagements
"END OF AN OFFICE ERA AT FUNDAMENTAL EDGE Despite growing up in Idaho and going to college at Arizona State I lived in NYC for [--] years from '07-'18 chasing my career dreams. In [----] slightly disgruntled with the hedge fund industry and massively burned out my family moved to Scottsdale in [----] and for the first time I had a dedicated office in my house. So exciting I'd get to work from home Well.with [--] boys in the house (then [--] [--] and 6m) and about [--] Amazon packages delivered daily.I soon realized working from home would not be conducive to thinking clearly. I found a perfect solution - a"
X Link 2023-10-07T19:05Z 34.5K followers, 62.4K engagements
"Having worked for a few of these incredibly successful individuals and having been a (mediocre) PM at a few large hedge funds myself Ill tell you what I observed about motivations. Past a certain level money and social status no longer become the primary sustaining motivation. This should be obvious. To me its the same reason that Phil Ivey and Phil Helmuth keep playing poker and why Tom Brady would never retire. They have a skillset that allows them to win a competitive game and the dopamine hit of winning is like nothing else that exists. Markets are just a giant game of poker yet the"
X Link 2023-10-10T01:08Z 34.5K followers, 354.6K engagements
"HIDDEN FACTORS On a day when NOVOs FLOW data (GLP-1) is rocking the med tech complex ($DVA -19% $INSP -13%) I thought Id comment on a concept that Ive been thinking about a lot for the last [--] years - the concept of hidden factors and how thematic factors seem to be increasingly distorting price discovery in the equity markets Classic Tiger-style investing is the ultimate long winners short losers or long the future short the past approach (vastly simplified). Hedge out half your market exposure and your alpha is the materialized expression of your structural views on industries & business"
X Link 2023-10-11T16:55Z 38.5K followers, 109.2K engagements
"MY DAILY SCHEDULE AS A PORTFOLIO MANAGER Last week in class at ASU I had a PM at a NYC hedge fund come in as a guest speaker. A student asked him the typical "day in the life" question and we got a good laugh thinking about a "Hedge Fund Morning Routine" post.his first step was "wake up in a panic" and oh man it brought me back. Rather than attempt to be purely comedic I thought it might actually be helpful to some analysts to see the day from the PM perspective and a few takeaways from my [--] years of the daily balancing act of being a PM. The reality is that the PM seat (this is from my pod"
X Link 2023-11-01T21:10Z 34.5K followers, 272.4K engagements
"THE PRIMACY OF REVENUE GROWTH Having grown up as a Tiger-style investor one of the lessons that sticks with me the most is the value of revenue growth. As an impressionable [--] year old analyst I will never forget Steve Mandel from Lone Pine telling our analyst group a simple but powerful truth - sustained structural growth is (almost always) chronically underpriced in the market and sustained secular decline is (almost always) chronically overpriced in the market. In a market ecosystem keyed on P/E ratios investors will get the proper P/E range directionally correct but will miss on"
X Link 2023-11-02T16:52Z 35.3K followers, 251.2K engagements
"GOOD NEWS - SHARING FExWITG TOP [--] PITCHES W/ nearly [---] high-quality pitches the inaugural FExWITG Stock Pitch Competition was a huge success. We have received approval to share the top [--] finalist decks with our followers. To get a DM with the link retweet or reply "FExWITG""
X Link 2023-11-03T17:41Z 34.5K followers, 91.2K engagements
"VALUATION SURVEY For my buy-side fundamental equity followers a question. What is the primary valuation tool in your thesis construction process (I think I know the answer.but this is an attempt to be a little more scientific and not just teach "Brett's way" but attempt to seek "best practices".) Any color on your typical valuation lens in the comments is appreciated"
X Link 2023-11-06T17:43Z 34.5K followers, 20K engagements
"@adnuta1 @bucketshopcap Try Search One Dynamics and Odyssey. You can find/connect with recruiters from those shops directly on LinkedIn"
X Link 2023-12-06T16:48Z 35.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@FairWindsCap @SaaS_Monkey It depends on a lot of factors. Team size firm netting whether team is senior or junior. Whether they have handshake deals / points in the team. Generally I've seen anywhere from 40-60% in a large scaled team and for a smaller more junior team it can be 60-75%"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:15Z 35.2K followers, [---] engagements
"DE-GROSSING WHAT IS IT With lots of chatter about "unwinds" & "de-grossing" over the last couple weeks and jefco PB comments of the worst HF unwind in decades in December circulating on twitter I thought it might be a useful exercise to try to break the concept of de-grossing down a bit for those who don't fully understand the concept. If you're like me I was afraid to ask questions for fear of seeming stupid (to be clear there ARE stupid questions at a hedge fund). So fire up your anonymous X account and ask the stupid questions here. WHAT IS GROSS Think of gross exposure as simply your"
X Link 2023-12-20T21:05Z 35.5K followers, 42.9K engagements
"JP Morgan Healthcare Conference Shoutout to my #JPMHC #JPM24 conference peeps this week. I won't be attending but did for nearly a decade as a hedge fund analyst & PM. Despite this conference being torturous at times (decrepit hotel with inedible food certainly packed above fire code capacity) I have many fond memories of my JPM years. I was also chuckling when I saw #JPMHC trending on twitter this weekend. How many sell-side conferences can you say that about Why does #JPMHC get so much attention Really two reasons. 1) TIMING. Investors haven't heard from companies in a while. In HC the last"
X Link 2024-01-08T16:02Z 34.5K followers, 47.9K engagements
"We will start from first principles of the flow of capital from allocators to firms. What are allocators seeking to do Why have MM's been such attractive partners How do the basic mechanics of a pod work Equity gross distributed risk vol targeting pass through expenses etc. I will attempt to explain in basic language the structure & purpose of the multi-manger model. We will talk about leverage and how leverage informs strategy at pods. Particularly when it comes to the protection of left tail events / drawdown protection. I will attempt to answer the question are pods a ZIRP phenomenon With"
X Link 2024-01-25T15:27Z 36.1K followers, [----] engagements
"And lastly I will share my (nuanced) conclusion on the question "are we at peak pod" My hope is at the end we will have time to open it up for an open mic. For other market participants to chime in and correct me where I was wrong and have a discussion/debate. Very much looking forward"
X Link 2024-01-25T15:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"ALUMNI SPEAKER SERIES: RICH FALK-WALLACE (former Viking Citadel PM) I am pumped for our next installment of Speaker Series a near monthly series where Fundamental Edge brings in topical speakers for the buy-side learner. Today we will be hosting @richfalkwallace an experienced buy-side professional at both Viking Global and Citadel where he was a global natural resources PM. Recently Rich has been building Arcana a proprietary financial & risk data firm and is an incredibly interesting thinker & builder in the realm of factor risk models. If you are not following Rich on both X and LinkedIn I"
X Link 2024-02-08T17:42Z 38.6K followers, [----] engagements
"ARIZONA SPRING TRAINING WEEK It's a huge week at Fundamental Edge: our first inaugural Analyst Spring Training. We began the week with a Fundamental Edge Team Offsite walking through our 3-5 year vision for this platform. Our team has grown to seven awesome individuals and we have big ambitions for what this platform can become. We feel like we are just scratching the surface on the value we can provide to buy-side investment professionals. While the bulk of the week is alumni-exclusive we are exploring ways to share some of the content more broadly perhaps simply in a few distilled threads."
X Link 2024-02-28T20:09Z 36.5K followers, [----] engagements
"LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY MARCH [--] COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis - How to be a"
X Link 2024-03-05T20:43Z 36.7K followers, 11.1K engagements
"GEN Z ON THE BUY-SIDE PANEL A FOUR-PART FRAMEWORK & A QUESTION FOR YOU ALL Hello I will be speaking at the upcoming Institutional Investor Trader Forum Conference in Scottsdale in a session titled Roadmap for Junior Traders. I will be discussing four frameworks that we have developed and offer to our Enterprise Clients. 1) EXPECTATIONS TRACK. The importance of setting clear up front expectations. "Here's why we hired you and our perception of your strengths & areas of improvement". Avoid the all-too-common "neglected analyst" problem with regular check-ins with the expectations document (can"
X Link 2024-03-06T16:27Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Oh man had so many conversations with PMs over the years on this exact topic. Existential conversations. Investment professional leaves a solid seat for a pod PM role. Guarantee is enticing. Autonomy & direct payout is enticing. "I've been a money maker how hard can it be". Market neutral tight risk you are great if you can do 3-5% consistently (looser risk 6-8%+). BUT 3-5% on gross is actually 6-10% long/short spread i.e. if my longs are up 6% and my shorts are flat I made 3% on gross. And this alpha is actually alpha not relative factor bets beta exposure etc. And 3% isn't really 3% as you"
X Link 2024-03-06T20:37Z 36.7K followers, 206.2K engagements
""THE MARKET IS BROKEN": WHY STOCKS MOVE We are in a stage of markets where it is fashionable to look at the massive moves in $NVDA (+90% YTD) and $SMCI (+242% YTD) and conclude that the market is broken and price discovery is dominated by quants pods & retail momentum traders. And to make the argument that "fundamentals don't matter." While I have my opinions on how some of the AI-levered stocks will play out (which I won't share here) I do have very strong views on the "fundamentals don't matter" debate. I'm here to assert: fundamentals are all that matter** (**with an investment horizon"
X Link 2024-03-22T18:14Z 45K followers, 136.3K engagements
"VERY TRUE. Also why certain SM's I follow have actually shifted approach to taking advantage and I've seen some back to generating DD+ L/S spread taking advantage of these dislocations. Having the rope to approach volatility differently has always been a bid advantage but seems obviously will become an even bigger advantage. Investing in the "phone booth" and having to gross & de-gross with the crowd is so hard (the hardest thing I found about running pod $)"
X Link 2024-03-22T19:16Z 36.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@_1Dance Totally agree. First step is understanding why the moves are happening that gives conviction/confidence to fade them. Buying from a forced seller - alpha pool as old as markets"
X Link 2024-03-22T19:26Z 36.8K followers, [---] engagements
"So good Thanks for sharing @__paleologo If your firm has a risk model Gappy's book Advanced Portfolio Management is a must read. It's a top practitioner's distilled view of risk from years in key risk management seats. Most investment books might have 2-3 good nuggets (and a lot of less helpful filler).Gappy's book I think I have more highlighted sections than not. Read carefully it's a manual to managing capital in a volatility budgeted environment. Trying to rewrite this old checklist I wrote on the back of that business card that I lost: [--]. Separate idiosyncratic returns from systematic"
X Link 2024-03-29T17:07Z 37K followers, 26.8K engagements
"Just a very rough estimate assuming that risk envelop is enforcing a 3% volatility on gross. Vol on gross varies but generally in that LSD/MSD range. For example if you run 8% vol on gross with 5x a leverage and you have a [---] sharpe drawdown you've blown up your fund (-80%). So it's a function of the risk calibration of these firms that have generally centered around LSD/MSD vol on gross with 3-6x leverage to turn 1-sharpe gross P&L into low/mid-teens return on equity"
X Link 2024-04-02T22:04Z 37K followers, [----] engagements
"@macrocephalopod @TheLAPurchaser Yeah the individual portfolios are 3-5% but I'm probably missing in this analysis the diffusing effects of the portfolio roll-up as well as any portfolio level hedging. So you are right the realized vol on gross is likely lower than 3% - good catch"
X Link 2024-04-03T00:18Z 37K followers, [----] engagements
"$NVDA & THE POWER OF THE "SECOND DERIVATIVE" As stock pickers we are advised to identify stocks that trade at a price-value gap. To repeatedly buy stocks below their intrinsic value. Certainly that seems like prudent advice. Who wouldn't want to buy a dollar bill for [--] cents The longer I have participated in markets however the more I run into executional challenges with this very simple framework. Specifically how do I determine intrinsic value Carefully examined we can see the myriad challenges in determining an accurate assessment of equity value. Equity is the residual claim of a capital"
X Link 2024-04-23T17:36Z 40.6K followers, 56.2K engagements
"This trend has been great for $MCD profits (FCF +56% and margins up 340bps [----] to 2024). But the question for the analyst covering the stock is: how durable is this growth Again without knowing the specifics at $MCD what we see is a company who has grown EPS 56% over [--] years riding the wave of this inflation-encouraged pricing reset. The business is now at [--] year peak margins with a P/E multiple still above the 20-year average (21.4x NTM). Caveat - do your own work here this is not a stock recommendation simply an observation. The unfortunate reality is that when companies get to a point of"
X Link 2024-05-06T17:50Z 39.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MANAGING THE CORPORATE RELATIONSHIP When I was preparing for hedge fund interviews back in '07 I read pretty much every investing book I could get my hands on. I plowed through all the classics. I thought this would prepare me the analyst seat. While there were many helpful nuggets I picked up from these readings there were many dimensions of the fundamental analyst workload that were entirely ignored. One of those was managing the corporate relationship. "We have a great relationship with the company". I remember hearing that as a junior analyst and thinking to my self "WTF does that even"
X Link 2024-06-03T17:48Z 37.8K followers, 23.8K engagements
"Working on re-filling the twitter pipeline over the next couple weeks. What are some topics on your mind that you would like to see me dive into"
X Link 2024-06-03T19:10Z 37.9K followers, 15.7K engagements
"Thanks for the question @blueprintsmb22. Many reasons why I left the buy-side in '21. Principally I had three young sons and I wanted to have more mental & emotional space for them. I wasn't an investing savant (by any means) I was a grinder. I couldn't take shortcuts and that required total dedication. I didn't think I could go 90% speed and be successful. And in a lot of ways I was a classic case of burnout & adrenal fatigue.the job just wasn't fun anymore. I also had a strong desire to move my family from NYC to Arizona (which we did in 2018) where my wife's family resides and where I went"
X Link 2024-06-05T04:17Z 37.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Without knowing the specifics I think generally the view is that a PM who spins is 1) likely among the more successful of the PMs 2) will offer the parent company capacity rights. So whether a dollar is allocated to an internal PM or an external PM it doesn't functionally matter to the return stream. It can also be a selling point as a successful PM has options and an easy/supportive path to spinout down the road is a nice carrot. Often the more relevant question is why a really successful Big [--] MM PM spins out vs. staying internal. Often it's simply an entrepreneurial itch that drives that"
X Link 2024-06-05T04:31Z 39.6K followers, [---] engagements
"AI TOOLS IN THE INVESTMENT PROCESS: [--] BARRIERS TO SCALE One of the really cool (and unexpected) byproducts of what we are building at Fundamental Edge is that increasingly more financial software entrepreneurs are reaching out to us for guidance on their tools. This is really cool and I enjoy these conversations and the ability to see what is being built. On a personal level I've gone from no AI use to a daily power user as the models have gotten much better & more reliable (lately developing variable craps strategies for cold/hot shooters that get me as close to [--] house edge as possible)."
X Link 2024-06-05T14:42Z 37.9K followers, 57.8K engagements
"Hey Khe Very hard in practice. For me the money wasn't the hardest part (though I still very much miss that day in January when the bonus hits the account). With age I've learned I actually don't want the things I always thought I wanted - private jet expensive watch collection a bunch of vacation houses (sounds like a pain in the butt). But what I really love about money is the freedom to chose how I spend my time which I have and another dollar incrementally wouldn't change. The hardest part was the shift in identity. Who am I now Without this job without these work colleagues without this"
X Link 2024-06-05T15:22Z 37.8K followers, [---] engagements
"100% GME's entire MCAP pre-MEME era was in the $500m-ish range. Even with close to 100% short that's a $500m short position in an equity notional hedge fund industry short book I estimate as north of $1tn. The direct impact of $GME and $AMC outside of a few specific funds (like Melvin) has been immaterial. Prudent short sellers had an emergency team meeting at the onset of the MEME moves in '21 and it was pretty much understood without even addressing it that we wouldn't be shorting these MEME stocks. I don't even recall a debate it was so obvious we didn't want to step into this fray. The"
X Link 2024-06-08T18:22Z 37.9K followers, 34.5K engagements
"AI Investment Process Vendors - seeking comprehensive list & feedback: We are wrapping up an Analyst Academy cohort tomorrow and won't launch again until August 5th. July will again will be my "semi-sabbatical" where I will take critical meetings but mostly be off the desk (for the third summer in a row my wife and our [--] [--] and [--] year old boys will be road-tripping from Scottsdale up to Coeur d' Alene Idaho my hometown and hanging there for a couple weeks before heading home). One of my summer projects is to dig deeper into the emerging AI investment process tools via demos & free trials"
X Link 2024-06-17T21:00Z 38.2K followers, 42.4K engagements
"It's a fascinating question and this thread has some really thoughtful responses. I hear this narrative a lot that stocks are "over-themed" and "over-shoot". I think it's particularly interesting in the case of $NVDA that is up 170% YTD despite negative active flows YTD. I've thought a lot about this and don't have the right answers but I think about this in [--] buckets. 1) Severe index hugging: Index hugging has for decades been a "thing" but with 60% of the S&P [---] YTD return being driven by [--] stocks (and 35% by ONE stock) portfolio construction decisions vis--vis the Big [--] are more critical"
X Link 2024-06-18T15:47Z 38.4K followers, 85.2K engagements
"I retired from managing money in [----] after [--] years as an analyst & PM. I had no idea what I was going to do next. On a whim I started tweeting some of the content from my class at ASU and through that I met a handful of analysts on here who had gone through the Point [--] Academy. I had heard of the program from afar but I started to really actively study the program and I was really impressed with what I learned. The lightbulb moment for me was when I started to observe well-respected single manager funds poaching grads from the P72 Academy (they had to respond by extending the non-compete"
X Link 2024-06-21T16:29Z 38.4K followers, 128.5K engagements
"Completely agree and as a former healthcare PM my observation was that the biotech industry was the only group that really got this. The biotech industry is so capital consumptive and the business model is very sensitive to availability & cost of capital so this matters a lot. And it mostly works - good drugs get funding large or small. And there are many many small & mid-cap biotech investors who do very well sifting through these opportunities to find the gems. That isnt true in tech & software and it feels like this discourse ignores the realities of WACC & cost of equity capital. Over"
X Link 2024-06-22T15:20Z 38.4K followers, 59.2K engagements
"Mid-year outlook from Henry McVey at KKR. His reports always on my must read list: https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2024-mid-year-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2024-mid-year-outlook.pdf"
X Link 2024-06-27T06:08Z 38.4K followers, 62.8K engagements
"Also disclaimer I have no relationship with P72 to promote this program I just think for the right candidate this is a really intriguing potential pathway"
X Link 2024-08-19T22:49Z 39.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I found this discussion on handling edge cases in fundamental data to be very insightful from two guys in the trenches building this stuff. @hedgineering @Daloopa1 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=lXO6GLkHlGg&t=2200s RACE FOR THE AI ANALYST Thought this was an interesting article on AI in the investment process and I liked the framing as "ChatGPT as intern". I've continued to try to get smart in this space. Over the summer I listened to a bunch of AI podcasts read some papers and https://t.co/or7PJphzNR https://www.youtube.com/watchv=lXO6GLkHlGg&t=2200s RACE FOR THE AI ANALYST Thought this was"
X Link 2024-08-21T16:30Z 44.8K followers, 16.4K engagements
"LEARNING AI (FOR THE LUDDITE) My summer project update Do you feel like I do when you listen to @patrick_oshag and @GavinSBaker 's recent (EXCELLENT) podcast on AI that is.massive intellectual inferiority Was your last science & math class senior year of high school Do you kind of feel like AI is going to be a big deal but you don't really know how an LLM operates or the difference between RAG or RLHF Well the good news is SAME. I am a state school finance undergrad who covered hospital stocks for 10+ years on the buy-side. I know a lot about Medicare & Medicaid but very little about the"
X Link 2024-08-27T20:26Z 39.9K followers, 63.1K engagements
"WHAT'S THE BETTER STOCK And a three part test for business quality I had an interesting discussion recently with someone on the importance of business quality in stock selection and the usage of quantitative metrics to assess business quality. I used this example in the discussion and I thought it may be helpful to share. Say I gave you this proposal: Own either Stock A or Stock B based on these widely agreed upon metrics of business quality margins & ROIC (which captures both profitability & capital intensity). Stock A would SEEM to be an exceptional business and Stock B would seem to be a"
X Link 2024-08-28T17:33Z 39.9K followers, 55.3K engagements
"LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY OCT 14th COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis"
X Link 2024-09-19T17:32Z 39.9K followers, 22K engagements
"CORE FORMULA I like to break things down to what I call the "core formula" of EPS vs. P/E. How much of the stocks move YTD has been due to NTM EPS estimate progression (roll-forward & revision) vs. P/E expansion. The general view is that estimate progression is more durable than multiple expansion (not always true). Particularly for big moves like a WING it is helpful to see that just around all of the stocks move YTD has been due to estimate progression not multiple expansion (this isn't me expressing a view won the fairness of WING's 90x P/E). Particularly on the short side of the book I"
X Link 2024-10-22T17:42Z 39.9K followers, 11.6K engagements
"My marketing team won and wants to distribute this file over e-mail 😀 If you are subscribed to our e-mail list you will receive the cleansed/flat underlying excel shortly (with a tab of FactSet pulls if you are a subscriber) If you are a Bloomberg/CapIQ subscriber often your sales person can help with a conversion of this file (or if you work at BBerg/CapIQ and want to contact me happy to work with you to convert this) If you are not subscribed and would like to see the underlying excel subscribe here (should work if you are already subscribed to put in your e-mail here)."
X Link 2024-10-24T20:20Z 45.5K followers, 21.3K engagements
"I really enjoyed this conversation between @tseides and @rsandler21969. It has been very thought provoking to follow how Ricky has evolved his firm in a changing environment. A few points that stood out. 1) Market Structure Has Changed (Dramatically) Over the Last Decade. Passive share has shifted from 25% to 60% the remaining Active share has shifted away from fundamental single-manager L/S towards multi-manager L/S and quant. And there has been a rise in thematic ETF AUM. Great Quote: "If we need investor perception to change we need to understand where we are different and who we are"
X Link 2024-10-30T19:22Z 45.5K followers, 57.5K engagements
"Yes that is something we have thought about. However generally our enterprise programs are priced at a significant premium to a standard day rate you would see from Wall Street Prep or Training the Street which can be an issue for some sell-side firms. We can half-way solve budget constraints by self-pacing / hybridizing some of the curriculum. But with lots of projects going on hasn't been our top priority yet"
X Link 2024-10-30T22:43Z 45.5K followers, [---] engagements
"FRAMEWORKS FOR PORTFOLIO ELECTION PREP I was asked today in an office hours how I prepared my portfolio a presidential election. This process usually began weeks before the elections but with just a few trading days left until the election I thought sharing this framework might be helpful. First a decision 1) do you want to make a portfolio decision betting on a specific candidate 2) do you want to hedge the outcome completely 3) do you want to mostly hedge but selectively find mispriced risk. My bias has always been [--] and let me walk you through a few analyses I always did. 1) LOADINGS"
X Link 2024-10-31T19:46Z 45.5K followers, 18.7K engagements
"THE CUTTING EDGE EPISODE 3: JIM FALBE SAGUARO CAPITAL (Monday November 11th at 5pm ET) I hope you have enjoyed our first two episodes of The Cutting Edge where we have been exploring the frontier of artificial intelligence applied to fundamental investment research. We are very happy to announce Episode [--] which will take place Monday November 11th at 5pm ET. We have heard from two builders in the AI space and now we will shift sides of the table and hear from Jim Falbe. Jim has been exploring the use of AI in the fundamental investing process for nearly a decade first at Vulcan Value Partners"
X Link 2024-11-05T00:02Z 40K followers, [----] engagements
"Does anyone reading this work at Bloomberg I built this in Factset. I had a reader graciously convert it to CapIQ. But I would like to have it available in Bloomberg as well (I'm not currently a subscriber) so we could offer this file for free download in all terminal formats. I've had a dozen+ requests for this file in Bloomberg and would like to convert but need some help THE BUY-SIDE COMP SHEET One of the saddest things about leaving an institutional hedge fund is loads of your infrastructure gets locked away forever. Well I'm on a journey to rebuild many of my investment process"
X Link 2024-11-05T00:13Z 40K followers, 63.6K engagements
"I am building a custom training program for a family office and they have requested some curriculum on activist investing. I have followed many activist campaigns and gone soft activist a few times so I know a little but this isnt my power alley. Im seeking a current or (more likely) retired activist investor who may want to teach a bit. Ideal candidate has institutional experience managing activist campaigns and has a desire to share this wisdom with the next generation of investors. Please DM"
X Link 2024-11-11T17:54Z 40K followers, 11K engagements
"Mission accomplished. This comp sheet is now available for free download on our website in either Bloomberg Factset or CapIQ. See download link at the bottom of the blog post here: http://www.fundamentedge.com/blog/the-buy-side-comp-sheet Does anyone reading this work at Bloomberg I built this in Factset. I had a reader graciously convert it to CapIQ. But I would like to have it available in Bloomberg as well (I'm not currently a subscriber) so we could offer this file for free download in all terminal formats. http://www.fundamentedge.com/blog/the-buy-side-comp-sheet Does anyone reading this"
X Link 2024-11-13T21:47Z 40K followers, 48.4K engagements
"@heartbreakout thanks for heads up. I don't have bloomberg so a reader did the conversion. We will swap it out with another version that looks more accurate now. Check back in a couple hours and please let me know if it looks more accurate"
X Link 2024-11-13T22:22Z 40K followers, [----] engagements
"LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY DEC 2ND COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis -"
X Link 2024-11-14T15:38Z 40.2K followers, 16.7K engagements
"UNDERWRITING THE STOCK MARKET A major paradox of stock selection is that the trajectory of the market is likely to be primarily deterministic to the trajectory of my portfolio YET most sophisticated stock pickers are spending little time forecasting the market. This isn't due to neglect or laziness but due to lived experience with regard to the difficulties of forecasting the trajectory of the S&P [---]. It is the general consensus with which I agree that it is easier to forecast the bottom's up KPIs of businesses that I can closely diligence rather than the myriad economic & geopolitical"
X Link 2024-11-19T17:17Z 40.6K followers, 66.7K engagements
"This has been great news and has led the 10-year trailing CAGR on the S&P [---] to push low-teens which has really only happened in 4-eras over the last century. Some of those eras lasted longer than others (80's & 90's a monster bull market) but in all [--] priors boom eventually turned to bust. And I'm not here to make a market forecast. I'm here to show you some tools. But this chart was one of my first mentor's favorite tool for forecasting longer duration equity returns (he pointed to the consistent cyclicality & mean reverting nature of these returns). 3) QUITE SIMPLY ENTRY MULTIPLES MATTERS"
X Link 2024-11-19T17:17Z 40.1K followers, [----] engagements
"#Swifties in Toronto"
X Link 2024-11-23T01:28Z 40.3K followers, 10K engagements
"I have ZERO clue about anything $PLTR related (so it goes without saying don't take this as a recommendation). But as is often my observation over the last few years many stocks that we can rush to to dismiss as irrational often have some real fundamental underpinning. Not everything is an AMC/GME (i.e. just a pump with no real fundamental story) and more times than not we can apply a fundamental framework to explain the stock move. A couple observations here: - PLTR's revenue growth over the last [--] quarters has shown a meaningful acceleration from +12% to +30%. This top-line acceleration"
X Link 2024-11-25T20:54Z 40.6K followers, 98.7K engagements
"BY FAR the biggest area I experience young investors having to "unlearn" is in the area of WACC & cost of equity. The orthodoxy that we teach finance students that CAPM will feed into WACC and provide an accurate assessment of cost of capital for publicly traded equities is just bad. There are so many reasons why. The silliest may be that in the development of CAPM in the 60's and 70's (initial paper [----] with some follow-ups) beta showed a strong linear relationship with realized returns. The problem is it hasn't since (see Betting Against Beta or the low beta paradox). So basically a data"
X Link 2024-12-03T17:34Z 41.1K followers, 119.4K engagements
"VALUE INVESTING I have never considered myself a classic value investor (the buy low P/E P/B type) and certainly never felt qualified to teach a course in value investing. Through great serendipity (and a generous intro by @tseides) I met Paul Johnson last year. Paul is a excellent teacher of investing process and by virtue of his 30+ years as an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School an extremely thoughtful teacher on the craft of value investing. Paul's students rave about him. We were very pleased to bring Paul on board at Fundamental Edge last year and he has quickly become an"
X Link 2024-12-10T22:09Z 40.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Yo I know zero people under [--] who have left a hedge fund and just chill on the beach. But I know 20+ who have left a hedge fund and do something else.went to corporate something entrepreneurial back to sell-side launched funds that are more chill quasi-friends & family investment vehicles CFO of venture backed companies etc. *Maybe they took a pay cut but they have more freedom & flow in their lives (and I say *maybe because while top-decile HF pros still do very well the *median hedge fund comp can be earned in lots of other areas). Why don't more drop out 1) Investing is a fun game"
X Link 2024-12-17T02:37Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements
"I have very much enjoyed this demo so far and looking forward to hosting Kris tomorrow. We will discuss a couple specific things. 1) The analyst's challenge of identifying fraud and/or accounting restatement risk (efficiently). What a process to identify these issues can look like today (hint: it's very artisanal with lots of unstructured data) and how AI can help quantify that unstructured data and accelerate that process. Using AI to quantify qualitative risk is an exceptionally good use case in my opinion (much better than AI transcript summaries.) Giving you one example my forensic"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:45Z 40.8K followers, 15.7K engagements
"I think this really depends on your use case. The retail tools (ChatGPT/Claude) dont have built-in document access (have to upload manually which is cumbersome & buggy) no financial data (most of the purpose-built tools partner with FactSet or CapIQ for data) and dont have a UI built for the process of financial analysis. Perplexity working out this but doubt if OpenAI or Anthropic will. If tools are sub $100 a month these advantages seem like a good value proposition. I think there will be a lot of value in pro-active alerts (i.e. please tell me across these [---] consumer companies when there"
X Link 2024-12-26T20:35Z 40.8K followers, [---] engagements
"This is a good thread for those wanting to understand multi-manager firms For anyone who wants a deeper dive into the structure and function of a typical multi-manager firm I did a [--] hour deep dive last January. Attaching the link here https://www.fundamentedge.com/rise-of-the-pods-partners The replies to this and to the original post illustrate a lot of confusion about what the multi-manager platforms do confusing them with high frequency market makers etc. I'll start off here others can add more color. https://www.fundamentedge.com/rise-of-the-pods-partners The replies to this and to the"
X Link 2025-01-08T14:35Z 41K followers, 38.8K engagements
"@Restructuring__ Wow thanks so much Restructuring 🫡🫡🫡"
X Link 2025-01-11T18:02Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"NEW PROGRAM: FACTORS FOR THE FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR It has been quite a [---] year journey at Fundamental Edge. What started as a science project because I was bored has [--] Analyst Academies [---] students and 15+ fund clients later has turned into what feels more like a real business with three full-time trainers seven employees office space and an actual 5-year business plan. It has been an incredible honor to teach & mentor so many exceptional young investors. And most days it doesn't feel like work. For those of your who have learned the craft of fundamental investing you know that there is"
X Link 2025-01-17T17:11Z 41.2K followers, 32K engagements
"The replay to this webinar can be accessed here: To attempt to find the middle path in both our marketing and curriculum efforts this replay will be available broadly for [--] weeks after which time we will make it exclusively available to Fundamental Edge students and alumni. Brett https://www.fundamentedge.com/uber-webinar-replay https://www.fundamentedge.com/uber-webinar-replay Excited for this webinar today where I will walk through nine dimensions of expectations and how those dimensions apply to the current UBER set-up. If you haven't registered link is in the replies. As part of the"
X Link 2025-01-24T00:17Z 41.2K followers, 19K engagements
"WEBINAR: FACTOR RISK MODELS [---] Please join Fundamental Edge on Wednesday Feb 5th at 4:30pm ET for a free webinar with Rich Falk-Wallace. Rich is the Co-Founder & CEO of Arcana an institutional factor risk management platform. Rich brings extensive fundamental investing experience to (Silver Point Viking Citadel) this role and is incredibly thoughtful on the integration of fundamental investing & factor risk management. I will host Rich in a fireside chat format and there will be opportunity for Q&A. Replay will be available (will be sent automatically if you are registered for the Zoom)."
X Link 2025-02-01T16:01Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"MEETING MANAGEMENT WITH CHATGPT On this thread yesterday someone asked what I thought was a game-changing use case for LLMs in fundamental research. To me a use case near the top of the list is meeting prep. A core dimension of unique insight generation for institutional investors is corporate access - meeting management. Not to virtue signal but throughout my career I have been pretty shocked at the (low) average level of preparation by my fellow fundamental analysts in mgmt meetings. It's common to hear other investors ask basic questions that were just discussed on the last call or can be"
X Link 2025-02-27T15:18Z 41.8K followers, 120K engagements
"Fwiw despite incredibly rapid market sell-off long/short spread paid seems to be contained (thus far). For purely educational purposes I monitor an equal-sized "Tiger proxy" long/short book and thus far over 3-days there is less than 100bps of long-short spread unwind. In a P&L attribution thus-far market return has been the only notable driver of losses. Obviously this could be taken one of two ways. For hedge funds in a kerfuffle the real pain often doesn't start until spreads go meaningfully upside down. They haven't thus far which is good news. However all else equal 1) rising volatility"
X Link 2025-04-07T20:53Z 42.6K followers, 32.6K engagements
"AN APPROACH TO MODELING TARIFF EXPOSURE: $NKE EXAMPLE You surely don't care about my macro or geopolitical takes but in an attempt to be helpful in this volatile market environment I thought I would lay out a basic process to analyze and think through tariff exposure from a bottoms up basis. My hunch is buy-side analysts far and wide have been and continue to practice this type of work on their companies to help their PMs navigate this volatile market environment. A foundational framework we teach at Fundamental Edge is a modeling process I was trained to deploy in moments like this and which"
X Link 2025-04-08T15:04Z 42.7K followers, 66.4K engagements
"STEP 2: Unmitigated Exposure Now that I have this basic COGS decomposition chassis built I can run all sorts of analyses around it. Which helps me run sensitivities and also helps me react quickly to any tape bombs around tariff rate revisions. A starting analysis is the "unmitigated exposure analysis". A 30% blended tariff will raise COGS per shoe by roughly $7 and flow through to a $2.23 hit to EPS (vs. consensus $2.12 for 2025). This first order impact is scary obviously which makes sense in the context of the violent sell-off and heightened volatility. Step 3: Offsets Analysis The odds"
X Link 2025-04-08T15:04Z 42.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Congrats to Gabe and the Rogo team on the raise We hosted Gabe on our AI Webinar series the Cutting Edge in September link here: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=ESNXXjaYEMg NEW: Rogo which makes a chatbot for investment banking analysts sees its valuation jump from $80mn to $350mn in six months after latest funding round led by Thrive: https://t.co/Eq3Sqi9uJx https://t.co/D7Mw8oAClK https://www.youtube.com/watchv=ESNXXjaYEMg NEW: Rogo which makes a chatbot for investment banking analysts sees its valuation jump from $80mn to $350mn in six months after latest funding round led by Thrive:"
X Link 2025-04-30T19:38Z 42.8K followers, 13.6K engagements
"LAUNCHING FACTOR ACADEMY: COHORT [--] (MAY 19th) "What is a factor" When I joined a multi-strategy hedge fund as a "beta-neutral factor-constrained" PM I honestly didn't have a coherent answer. Fast forward [--] years factor frameworks have become the analytical chassis for institutional equity portfolios. In a world where factor alpha has become beta and portable alpha strategies are seeing a resurgence it is more important than ever to have a rigorous structured understanding of factors. Whether you are a long only benchmark-indexed PM or a multi-manager PM with an 80% idio constraint"
X Link 2025-05-07T15:07Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Great brief explainer and awesome of @bennpeifert to put this out there. [--] years ago I had the privilege of spending some time with a sell-side derivatives team (in my $IBKR due diligence process) that gave a similar overview and between 1) spreads 2) pricing sophistication (above my head as a fundamental long/short person) and 3) all the stories they told of the fat spreads and almost risk-free structuring taking the other side of fundamental investors options trades I have always figured it was better to just trade the equity personally (outside of a few specific cases). Many will"
X Link 2025-06-17T07:25Z 43.6K followers, 27.3K engagements
"BLOOMBERG'S MOAT & AI FOR FINANCE CO-PILOTS Look around for a moment and you see an incredible amount of effort to build an "AI for finance" co-pilot. We are working to compile a comprehensive list of these tools: our list is over [--] and growing (we will release this soon) almost all with impressive teams of either former buy-siders or talented AI engineers. This makes sense to me.the consumer AI models are great for many investment process use cases but have some key limitations (financial data access / stale data risk workflow memory & integration multi-model engineering / "AI to check AI""
X Link 2025-06-17T14:41Z 43.6K followers, 38.4K engagements
"Question. I am working on turning the Fundamental Edge Analyst Academy curriculum into a shareable prompt library for investment research (which we will share with students in our AI for Investment Research program). Sharing a Microsoft Word document feels janky. What software systems should I explore to do this Where I can lock my library control permissions and create a group workspace for idea sharing. Anything new & impressive w/ AI-embedded in for recursive prompt generation or prompt follow-up suggestions Not sure if this exists (but it should.)"
X Link 2025-06-17T16:19Z 43.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Testing Deep Research: $UNH and the Medicare Crisis Hedge funds overall have been "slow adopters" of large language models. Early LLMs had poor numeracy limited citations and a tendency for rampant hallucinations.not great attributes of a trustworthy tool for institutional equity analysis. Candidly while I started a webinar series (The Cutting Edge) to explore AI tools in the investment process in the fall of [----] up until about [--] months ago the counsel I would give those who would ask is "pay attention but no need for meaningful process re-engineering" with the view that the cognitive load &"
X Link 2025-06-23T07:01Z 43.6K followers, 48.3K engagements
"Agree o3 w Deep Research is mind bending. As a trained short seller I have a sort of reflexive distaste for much of the empty hype that comes out of Silicon Valley. But o3 with Deep Research is real. And even with incremental improvements and a coherent data integration strategy I think it will fundamentally change certain investing workflows. I encourage you to experiment with it Deep Research is one of the most incredible pieces of technology. Whenever I want to learn something I have a tailored research report sent to my phone within [--] minutes. It is one piece of AI tech that truly feels"
X Link 2025-06-24T18:51Z 43.6K followers, 38.7K engagements
"As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for investment research. We have surely missed a bunch and expect this to be an iterative document - reply or DM with what we missed (and love any user feedback on tools you have used or demoed on this list that you liked.or didn't). (Including the screenshots on this tweet and will drop a landing page with PDF download in the replies)"
X Link 2025-06-25T19:12Z 43.9K followers, 28.1K engagements
"Heard a wild AI anecdote today Investment analyst doing research on a company. Finds a piece of information that feels proprietary or hard to know. Presses the LLM for a source "I don't have a source for this information". Presses again "this is from board minutes of XYZ company". Holy crap. I do a little research to check this and it's clearly stated that personal ChatGPT conversations can be used in training. Apparently proprietary internal information from one employee (presumably using a retail not Enterprise version) becomes translated to an investment analyst indirectly via LLM training"
X Link 2025-07-08T20:30Z 45.2K followers, 486.3K engagements
"@bucketshopcap Fair point"
X Link 2025-07-08T20:47Z 43.9K followers, 20.9K engagements
"That to me is a fascinating question. I am not a lawyer but in the three part test it is material and constitutes a breach of duty but is it nonpublic if you can query it in an LLM It certainly doesnt pass the Wall Street Journal test and would likely be enough for most funds to restrict trading"
X Link 2025-07-09T21:17Z 43.9K followers, [---] engagements
"This week and last I had a couple dozen Zooms w/ players in the public equity AI ecosystem (firms analysts & vendors). What surprised me a bit is how many stories I've heard where AI tooling is impacting analyst hiring decisions at fundamental process-oriented long/short firms. "We were going to hire a junior but we stopped the search given what we've done with AI". "I have summer interns coming in and I don't know how to use them since our AI workflow is doing what I had set aside for them to do" "As a PM the chokepoints where I needed analyst help like earnings season become easier to"
X Link 2025-07-10T21:09Z 43.9K followers, 24.9K engagements
"Excel is the workbench of the fundamental investor so any evolution Excel tools is incredibly exciting. To me the hinge point between the bull/base/bear for the usefulness of AI for fundamental investing lies in how "excel fluent" AI becomes. No legitimate investor can build a portfolio without a library of excel models. Base case - could LLM's become an Excel-equivalent tool for qualitative research A "word calculator" that effectively arms fundamental investors with a team of sell-side juniors to do guided qualitative research (I now have quite a few examples of this type of work that"
X Link 2025-07-28T21:55Z 44.9K followers, 59.5K engagements
"Fundamental investors: what have been the most useful finance-specific AI tools you have used Has anything on this list (or not on this list) meaningful changed/improved your investing process. Would love to hear. As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for investment research. We have surely missed a bunch and expect this to be an iterative document - reply or DM with what we missed (and love any user feedback on tools you have used or https://t.co/4xlwU66Ilu As promised our attempt to compile a comprehensive list of domain specific AI firms for"
X Link 2025-07-29T00:18Z 44.8K followers, 35.4K engagements
"Listen I love AI. AI is amazing. I use AI every day. The list of useful AI applications for investment research is growing all the time. This is a cool tool. I really like the demo. It's getting a lot of buzz. The vision is amazing. I can imagine a world where the click of a button builds a three-statement model. I genuinely hope they succeed. But saying "a massive part of finance got automated by AI" is a big statement and I think unfortunately quite wrong. This tool isn't there yet. In my tests there have been many issues with accuracy. It seems as if the retrieval system is the problem"
X Link 2025-07-31T02:03Z 44.9K followers, 78.5K engagements
"Bumping this list of AI resources that helped me learn the basics last summer and wanted to flag two new videos that are SO GOOD. @karpathy (former head of AI at TSLA and OpenAI co-founder) posted two videos on first principles of LLM for non-technical individuals about [--] months ago. Combined they are about [---] hours run-time. If you haven't already I highly recommend you watch them. By far the best first principles breakdown of LLM's that I have seen. LEARNING AI (FOR THE LUDDITE) My summer project update Do you feel like I do when you listen to @patrick_oshag and @GavinSBaker 's recent"
X Link 2025-07-31T02:17Z 44.9K followers, 31.9K engagements
"Yes very fair point. I believe however that basing statements on evidence is important. The growing amount of AI Hype is I believe ultimately counterproductive to Wall Street AI adoption. It makes it hard for people to trust what is real and what is not. What you said is sensible but we should frame tools this way - this is a version [--] and it will improve. Sure. Im not trying to be a hater I just feel its my role to pierce some of the hype when I see it. Framing this as we just automated away a key workflow which we clearly did not is just wrong and should not be said"
X Link 2025-07-31T03:01Z 44.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm a big fan of how @AltaFoxCapital lays out ideas: - Bottom line up front: explains the whole pitch on one page (a nice hook) - Structured & systematic approach cohesive flow - Explains "why the opportunity exists" - Validation of all thesis points with data charts & tables - Addresses to risk to avoid the "gotcha" moments - Hits all the analyses that I would think to do (and more) All PMs and firms have different approaches to pitch construction. Some like write-ups some like decks some like bullet points. In my mind this pitch deck is a good example of "best practices" for a young"
X Link 2025-07-31T19:36Z 45.6K followers, 44.8K engagements
"As a rule when VC's talk about public markets they are most often naively incorrect. But in my experience @bgurley has some good points about the IPO process (except the argument that VC's should also be allowed in on the grift.lol come on man) The IPO process feels like an archaic and broken process. The "testing the waters" meetings the way every deal is over-subscribed (and it's our job to figure out how much sell-side is lying which happens through relationships) the way banks weaponize their IPO window to leverage prime brokerage relationships (the thing that strikes me as the most"
X Link 2025-07-31T20:13Z 44.8K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Drinks in NYC: Wed August 6th 6-8pm I am in NYC next week and Andrew Carr and I just decided it might be fun to host some drinks on Wednesday. So we have booked the 3rd floor of the Playwright Celtic Pub (732 8th Avenue) and we will see how much damage we can do to the Fundamental Edge corporate card. Everyone welcome: Fundamental Edge alumni anon FinTwit shitposters stock nerds or anyone who wants to come commiserate/celebrate nearing the end of Q2 earnings. No RVSP required"
X Link 2025-08-01T19:54Z 45K followers, 52.4K engagements
"ENTERPRISE AI TRAINING & CONSULTING I don't often tweet about it but three years into the founding of Fundamental Edge roughly half of our business is direct work with investment funds (multi-managers single managers pensions & family offices). Our open cohorts turned the lights on (Analyst Academy & Factor Academy) and our enterprise engagements keep us growing & evolving (allowing us to build & grow our bench of coaches & trainers). One size doesn't fit all for enterprise so we do a lot of custom & in-person work on the enterprise side. We plan to maintain this approach as we build up our"
X Link 2025-08-01T20:52Z 44.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I have a few thoughts on this (having made the leap from a hedge fund PM seat to entrepreneurship four years ago). I started in my first hedge fund seat at [--] and I am [--] now. In my experience only a select few individuals make it in a hedge fund seat for more than [--] years (I wasn't one). These people are obviously insanely talented and find some sort of soothing comfort in the repetitive grunt work and also have a masochistic pre-disposition or autistic-numbness to the stresses of the job (i.e. no conception of burn out). But the industry weeds people out naturally as many top performers"
X Link 2025-08-02T18:30Z 45K followers, 270.8K engagements
"Yes I'm with @liensofnewyork here. AI is just good enough to create the Illusion of Competence for non-practitioners. In reality you lost all institutional investors at a base case of 0% return with the 25% annual growth in a DCF. This prompt tries to do too much. I would very much recommend against this sort of non-anchored use case with generalist models (at least run this through NotebookLM with uploaded filings transcripts financial tear-sheets and process de-composition notes). Even better give examples of actual thesis work (one-shot or few-shot) and take the pains to really break down"
X Link 2025-08-04T20:13Z 45K followers, 77.9K engagements
"I wasn't sure if it was just me but I have noticed some real deterioration in LLM performance (Sonnet [--] and o3 Deep Research) over the last [--] days. Could be a a prompting/skill issue on my part but the inherent degradation is something I am trying to understand more. A key frustration I have seen in Deep Research reports (a killer use case for investment research in my opinion) is this concept of "recursive slop". More and more the citation list of some of the Gemini and o3 Deep Research reports at 1) getting longer 2) filled with more gibberish seemingly AI-produced results when I don't"
X Link 2025-08-05T16:33Z 44.9K followers, 14K engagements
"What a fun night. Had a super high caliber group of [--] people roll through. The consensus was we need to do this again so we will in the fall. Stay tuned. Starting in [--] minutes. If in NYC come have a drink on me Starting in [--] minutes. If in NYC come have a drink on me"
X Link 2025-08-07T02:29Z 44.9K followers, 28.4K engagements
"So I had an argument with my wife maybe [--] months ago and she ran her side of the argument through ChatGPT and Chat agreed with her. She came back to be and said see super intelligence agrees with me As a rebuttal I formed the pastrami sandwich test. I asked Chat if we should add a module in our Analyst Academy (which trains fundamental equity analysts) on how to make a pastrami sandwich. Which is about the dumbest idea I could come up with at the time. Chat thought it as a good idea. Lol. (And it kept ChatGPT out of further marital disputes a win). This sort of sycophantic behavior is really"
X Link 2025-08-08T16:46Z 45K followers, 17.7K engagements
"Quotes @AskeladdenTX investor letter on AI: "Incidentally if anyone tries to rely on ChatGPT to do investment analysis all I have to say is good luck: it frequently gets very basic facts wrong such as the stock price let alone key details. That doesn't mean it doesn't have incredible use cases but on its own it's a recipe for disaster" ".the most effective ways to use AI are often non-obvious and treating it as 'intelligence' is the conventional sense tends to lead to frustration" "I believe learning to fully leverage AI is one of the most valuable and highest-return activities a public"
X Link 2025-08-14T19:59Z 45K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Was so excited to see this interview come across my timeline. Mark is truly one of a kind. During my hedge fund career I had the opportunity to cover Aetna (and was a shareholder on and off from [--] to 18). Through dozens of group meetings with Mark over that time I got to know him a bit and came to really admire him. Not only was he probably the most incisive thinker on health policy I ever met but his courage to be himself and not another corporate suit going through the motions was really inspiring (though dont let the interest in Eastern religion fool you he was a shark and made"
X Link 2025-08-21T06:14Z 45.1K followers, 27.6K engagements
"AI & EARNINGS SEASON To me one of the most compelling frontiers for the deployment of AI in investment research is earnings season. Earnings season is both "report card" time for a thesis of duration and "super bowl" for high velocity investors looking to monetize their intra-quarter research (surveys mgmt meetings channel checks alt data read-throughs). The sell-side corporate access complex & the alternative data industry largely thrive due to the importance of earnings season. For the average stock four earnings print days each year drive 20% of that stocks idiosyncratic volatility (with"
X Link 2025-08-21T17:45Z 45.1K followers, [----] engagements
"DATA STRATEGY & AI: "THE ESSENTIAL EIGHT" Figuring out what LLMs to use in investment research [--] months ago seemed a lot simpler. NotebookLM was really only open tool with a big enough context window for uploading a lot of documents and o3 with Deep Research was so much better than anything else (IMO). And the paid finance-tuned co-pilots were mostly so bad as to be unusable. I think a lot has changed and I personally notice a lot less difference in the Gemini ChatGPT & Claude models. They all seem pretty good to me now. Where I am seeing really differentiated results now is thinking more"
X Link 2025-08-22T18:16Z 45.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I would argue the flipside against the argument that it will be possible to replace star PMs with AI and I personally think star PMs will only become more valuable with AI. For two reasons: One for all the innovation in investment process technology & quantitative AUM over the last decade actual realized dollar alpha is markets has never been higher (sure Tiger cubs used to do 15pts of alpha on $5bn AUM but now multi's do 5pts of alpha on $50bn AUM so the $ alpha is higher and the dramatic rise in quant AUM hasn't compressed alpha pools on a $ basis). Markets have paradoxically become both"
X Link 2025-09-10T16:41Z 45.2K followers, 48.7K engagements
"@Stephen_A_Crane I had to write something that I can link replay to all the slop in X that says "AI can do anything a hedge fund analyst can do" 😂😂😂"
X Link 2025-09-10T16:48Z 45.2K followers, [---] engagements
"WITG x FE Fall Undergrad Stock Pitch Competition I am really excited to announce the third annual Wharton Investment & Trading Group x Fundamental Edge international stock pitch competition which will take place September 30th at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School. These events have been so fun and I am always inspired by the energy & motivation of the next generation of investment professionals (and constantly stunned by the quality of thesis work.I would have stood zero chance in these competitions when I was an undergrad) Submissions are open now with the deadline of September"
X Link 2025-09-12T17:35Z 45.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I am hosting two panels at the AI & Value Investing conference at Fordham University on October 3rd (in partnership with Paul Johnson from the Gabelli School and Fundamental Edge instructor) We are still looking for 1-2 more investors to join the "Investing with Generative AI" panel - individuals who are deploying AI to positive effect currently on an institutional scale and are open to sharing what they are doing with the roughly [---] person audience. Please DM me if you are interested Love to chat. Brett"
X Link 2025-09-12T18:01Z 45.2K followers, [----] engagements
"In this frenzy for scaling I think we have become numb to just how large these numbers have become. I'm not making the bull or bear case but I've found myself pointing out this simple observation to people: if OpenAI is indeed able to achieve their stated business model and execute on this model scaling through [----] (per reporting by The Information) OpenAI will be eighteen times more capital dependent than the average tech megacap and seven times more capital dependent than the runner up (Uber). Capital dependency can be a wonderful attribute in a monopolistic or oligopolistic industry (see"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:50Z 45.4K followers, 47.7K engagements
"One of my primary frustrations as an investor at a single manager fund hedge was the friction around decision making. Deliberate team based decision making is a great approach for identifying long duration investment alpha (9-18m). However as the curve of alpha shifted over time with quants & high velocity multi-managers taking the mantle of incremental price setter away from unlevered long only firms this slow & deliberate decision making process felt more anachronistic to me. A simple but powerful innovation at the multi-managers was to give decision making power to the investors who are"
X Link 2025-09-17T17:22Z 45.4K followers, 34K engagements
"I've thought a lot about this over time and I think this is so important for young people to understand that for five years I have been teaching this in my class at ASU. The obvious answer to the question of "is it better to buy or rent" is it depends. The blind orthodoxy from both the "it's better to buy" AND the "it's better to rent" is dangerous since a well-timed real estate play is the most accessible path to wealth for the vast majority of people and a poorly timed real estate play can be a huge financial albatross. The foundational skill of learning to underwrite real estate as an"
X Link 2025-09-23T23:31Z 45.5K followers, 110.4K engagements
"Google drive to few slides from my real estate lecture and my excel file for underwriting: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1n1LC5J5P_2Al01GernKQ15pyQzd2Uw6Tusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1n1LC5J5P_2Al01GernKQ15pyQzd2Uw6Tusp=sharing"
X Link 2025-09-23T23:32Z 45.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Excited to guest teach a class on idea generation: before & after AI at Columbia Business School today"
X Link 2025-10-03T16:01Z 45.6K followers, 18.4K engagements
"@UrbanKaoboy Exactly. Why names like $MCK and $CAH are leading the HC tape this year"
X Link 2022-03-24T00:26Z 49.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@MadThunderdome Nurse staffing $AMN $CCRN"
X Link 2022-05-03T17:29Z 48.3K followers, [--] engagements
"the equity regime. 5) PATTERN RECOGNIZE. I really am a sucker for "priors" or historical situations that can inform the year ahead. JPM Asset Management put together this create chart of YUC (young unprofitable companies) that I thought was a helpful framework. Post the 99-00"
X Link 2023-01-03T18:44Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"bubble path to profitability was the key distinction. Those companies that became profitable bounced back those that stayed unprofitable did not. I also really enjoyed this analogue of the 2019-2021 bubble with the 1998-2003 NASDAQ bubble. And the lesson here.bubbles once"
X Link 2023-01-03T18:44Z 48.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Back in the saddle. Just got back into my office after a 5-week [----] mile road trip with my family. And I'll tell you what my little 10x12 Regus office has never felt so peaceful I got fired from Citadel in [----]. I had been on the buy-side for [--] years at that point and that moment became a real fork in the road for me. In true absurd Wall Street fashion my phone lit up with headhunters when the news broke in Reuters. The more publicly you are fired the more other firms want to hire you I guess. I had some really interesting options at some great firms. But I knew what taking that path"
X Link 2023-07-11T22:57Z 48.5K followers, 232.5K engagements
"INFLATION & THE PERILS OF PRICE-DEPENDENT GROWTH Digesting this recent set of news on consumer price push-back in situations like $MCD $SBUX and $MDLZ has had me thinking about a very basic & critical construct when it comes to analyzing businesses: how much of the growth is coming from volume and how much is coming from price This is a very basic distinction but one that has serious implications for stock selection. Let's discuss. Surprisingly disaggregation of revenue growth is a dynamic that the market often seems to misunderstand in my opinion and a dimension that the sell-side tends to"
X Link 2024-05-06T17:50Z 50K followers, 54.5K engagements
"For those interested I noticed the Point72 Academy Investment Analyst Program for Experienced Professionals is now taking applications. It's a unique program in the sense that it offers 1) a 10-month paid training and 2) they seem to genuinely encourage applications from non-traditional backgrounds (not sure the hit rate on these sorts of candidates but few buy-side jobs are actively soliciting political science phd's or geothermal engineers lol). I know they get a lot of applications for a small number of seats but for the closet stock junkies out there stuck in the wrong seat this can be a"
X Link 2024-08-19T22:48Z 50K followers, 59.9K engagements
"THE BUY-SIDE COMP SHEET One of the saddest things about leaving an institutional hedge fund is loads of your infrastructure gets locked away forever. Well I'm on a journey to rebuild many of my investment process architecture tools to try to give our students & clients some examples of tools that have been helpful to me. Doing this job well is about effective information distillation and process velocity and properly constructed tools can help a lot. I wanted to talk first about the concept of a comp sheet. I've seen content on how to build an investment-banking-style trading comps or"
X Link 2024-10-22T17:42Z 47.9K followers, 193.8K engagements
"Meetings done for the week (year) Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Henry McVey (KKR) [----] outlooks fresh off the printer and the kids still in school for another [---] hours. No better feeling. https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/documents/insights/apollo-global-2025-economic-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2025-outlook-glass-still-half-full.pdf https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/documents/insights/apollo-global-2025-economic-outlook.pdf https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2025-outlook-glass-still-half-full.pdf"
X Link 2024-12-20T19:51Z 50K followers, 72.4K engagements
"$UBER has been a fun case study evolving in front of our eyes real-time recently. Fears about Waymo & autonomous vehicles reached a fever pitch in Q4 with UBER declining nearly 30% on an idio basis from Nov [--] to mid-December. We have seen a little bounce since then but investors are left considering how to weigh thematic / terminal value concerns of AVs against very strong fundamental momentum in the business (Street expects +30% EBITDA growth in '25 with strong FCF margins) and relatively undemanding valuation against those fundamentals. In my career knowing when to fade or press terminal"
X Link 2025-01-10T16:18Z 48.2K followers, 38.5K engagements
"Excited for this webinar today where I will walk through nine dimensions of expectations and how those dimensions apply to the current UBER set-up. If you haven't registered link is in the replies. As part of the "light" diligence process I ran on $UBER I had to check out the AV competition and take my first Waymo ride. I took the [--] boys and mom was a little nervous (can you tell lol) The good news is that we made is successfully to Dairy Queen (despite one rapid deceleration period in a school zone when school was out of session) Also Mom tailgated us to "make sure we were safe". TLDR I"
X Link 2025-01-22T18:09Z 48.2K followers, 34.9K engagements
"Agree this seems like a great use case for AI/LLM. Would love to learn more at some point. Think the nuance with Bloomberg/CapIQ/Factset is they pull data right from the 3-statements with incredibly accuracy. But miss on many simple tasks that require even one higher degree of nuance.such as detailed revenue breakdown adjusted metrics restatements. And whiff badly on more complicated situations like complex diluted share count adjustments (try pitching a stock at a top [---] hedge fund with an incorrect diluted share count number and report back.) This is why the door was opened to outsourced"
X Link 2025-02-17T20:20Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"LLM PROMPT TO EVALUATE A NEW CEO: $SBUX I continue to tinker with LLM's and how they may be applied in the institutional equity research process. There are all sorts of challenges in using LLM's in institutional equity research. In my mind the three biggest are: 1) Trust / hallucinations (and the derivative risk of outsourcing the artisanal process of "connecting the dots"). While it seems to have gotten better hallucinations haven't gone away and LLMs continue to make a number of stupid & dangerous mistakes. A review layer is critical. 2) Data paywall / the good data is "hidden" - there"
X Link 2025-04-22T14:56Z 48.3K followers, 66.3K engagements
"From Artificial Intelligence: A Guide For Thinking Humans by Melanie Mitchell. Will it be different this time We shall see"
X Link 2025-08-05T18:56Z 50K followers, 11.1K engagements
"I started recently on the recommendation of a friend using Wispr primarily to interact with ChatGPT. It's a wonderful tool for LLMs because short inputs can be quite vague and not necessarily elicit optimal responses from an LLM. Typing a few paragraphs in can be cognitively more burdensome. But speaking into Wispr for a minute or so and very deeply exploring what you're trying to complete I have found to be quite effective and much faster. It can feel like magic talking into Wispr in ChatGPT for a minute or so asking ChatGPT to take that rambling and turn it into a prompt and then running"
X Link 2025-10-10T06:22Z 45.7K followers, 69K engagements
"Highly encourage a @JaredKubin follow Has been posting super helpful dispatches from recent factor carnage My viewfinding alpha in factors is hard but without adopting a factor lens its almost impossible to understand why stocks move up & down in 2025factor risk management has become self-reinforcing in that with $1tn+ of factor investing AUM and hundreds of billions of factor constrained multi-manager factor violence (positioning & unwind) is a more and more common explanation of stock movements And without understanding why an opportunity exists its hard to build the conviction to make the"
X Link 2025-10-17T23:36Z 47.9K followers, 59K engagements
"Great discussion and cool this was shared publicly 👀AI Investor rapid-fire debate datacenters NVDA META GOOG AAPL MSFT SK Hynix Memory Robots "Lifecording" open source maintenance capex decline of SaaS Anduril + more. -Brad Gerstner (Altimeter) -Andrew Homan (Maverick) -Josh Wolfe (Lux) -Chase Coleman (Tiger) https://t.co/61PfHQbitq 👀AI Investor rapid-fire debate datacenters NVDA META GOOG AAPL MSFT SK Hynix Memory Robots "Lifecording" open source maintenance capex decline of SaaS Anduril + more. -Brad Gerstner (Altimeter) -Andrew Homan (Maverick) -Josh Wolfe (Lux) -Chase Coleman (Tiger)"
X Link 2025-10-18T20:11Z 47.9K followers, 53K engagements
"tell me how rich u are without actually telling me. tell me how rich u are without actually telling me"
X Link 2025-10-24T02:34Z 48K followers, 52.7K engagements
"Don't know $ABNB well (and no position) but stock has had two obvious problems leading to quite a long stretch of underperformance. 1) High starting valuation. Came out at 30x EV/Revenue and 90x EV/EBITDA for a business that in retrospect looks like it was in the 6th inning of its growth story. Valuation obviously matters in stock selection and ABNB is a great case study of that.despite nearly quadrupling revenue since [----] and becoming quite profitable & cash generative it was just too expensive post IPO. Five years later the stock has grown into it's multiple and trades at a seemingly more"
X Link 2025-11-05T02:47Z 50K followers, 107.2K engagements
""The skill isn't in finding the data anymore it's in knowing what is signal vs. noise"- @JaredKubin banger quote from our just recorded guest speaker session. Couldn't agree more. AI makes it much faster to identify the envelope of publicly available information on a company. This is great news. But having the data is just the first step. The importance of context & discernment to look at that envelope and identify "what matters" has always been critical but in a sea of AI-generated research materials becomes an even more critical success factor for the fundamental investor. How to develop"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:29Z 48.2K followers, 60K engagements
"Ive been thinking a lot about this question: if AI enables a 30%-3x uplift in investment research productivity (my base caserange depends on duration & coverage approach) what do analysts & PMs do with their excess time The knee jerk reaction is I can process more ideas but Im not so sure how I feel about that answer. If a PM of a 12-person shop asks each analyst for [--] great idea per month and each analyst can now produce [--] great ideas per month - does the portfolio double in position count / does sizing get cut in half More idea flow is better than less but at some point there can be *too"
X Link 2025-11-18T17:22Z 48.3K followers, 130.6K engagements
"This past week I tried @tryshortcutai an AI agent for Excel. I did NOT ask it to one-shot a cookie cutter high-level DCF model that spreadsheet AI providers seem to LOVE to put in their promos (I cant remember a single time when I was asked to build one of these on the job). https://t.co/oAFfDv4b9w This past week I tried @tryshortcutai an AI agent for Excel. I did NOT ask it to one-shot a cookie cutter high-level DCF model that spreadsheet AI providers seem to LOVE to put in their promos (I cant remember a single time when I was asked to build one of these on the job). https://t.co/oAFfDv4b9w"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:44Z 48.3K followers, 27.5K engagements
"AI Workflow: 13F Top Holdings Report One thing I like to do when I'm looking for new ideas is to check the 13Fs of a few dozen hedge funds I respect for new & high conviction ideas. While I don't want to outsource my thinking there is no copyright protection on a great idea and the funds I choose I know to have strong due diligence and a thoughtful portfolio inclusion process. Which is a positive signal on balance. (And one of my favorite personal strategies is a biotech 13F overlay which has a crazy good [--] year back test.post-COVID hangover notwithstanding.though XBI breaking out.). This is"
X Link 2025-12-16T17:19Z 50K followers, 51.3K engagements
"2026 Market/Macro Outlooks Even fours since I've retired from managing intuitional money I still get an irresponsible amount of joy from sifting through year ahead outlook pieces in the last couple weeks of the year. My printer is working overtime. Dropping [--] outlooks I have stumbled upon so far in replies and PLEASE drop any links in the replies as you see any publicly available (still waiting for my favorite McVey from KKR)"
X Link 2025-12-16T17:59Z 49.9K followers, 96.8K engagements
"To do so would imply an expectation that these strategists actually have an ability to predict the future. Which they do not (no one can reliably predict macro. For sure I cant). If anything they observe and articulate market consensus and at best raise interesting things that I havent thought about"
X Link 2025-12-16T19:33Z 50K followers, [----] engagements
"Updated with Morgan Stanley UBS & Stifel. Think we hit a pretty good critical mass of sell-side & asset management reports. Many thanks to everyone who e-mailed me Updated Google drive with reports from KKR GS (full) and BAML (econ & equity). If you have any other non-watermarked reports please send them along and i will add (brett @ fundamentedge(dot)com) Updated Google drive with reports from KKR GS (full) and BAML (econ & equity). If you have any other non-watermarked reports please send them along and i will add (brett @ fundamentedge(dot)com)"
X Link 2025-12-18T15:57Z 48.6K followers, 50.5K engagements
"Said very well by @LacertaXG1 and I agree directionally with long the PM short the analyst with the disclaimer that most observers (certainly quants) underestimate how much of the alpha mosaic is generated off the desk - mgmt meetings bus tours / HQ visits trade shows and in deep two way phone calls with mgmt/IR consultants formers sell-side trading desks / spec sales other buy-siders and supply chain contacts. Real repeatable alpha doesnt just sit in the 10-K and for real fundamental reasons (I.e. relationship building off desk travel) the real sweet spot of the alpha mosaic is not touchable"
X Link 2025-12-28T19:51Z 50K followers, 13.6K engagements
"Perhaps but a LONG line of failed quantamental strategies is evidence of how difficult it is to ingest the fundamental alpha mosaic into a quant forecast and thats with all the proprietary fundamental outputs those strategies generated. Citadel probably the only one who has made it work at scale. This is in the Ill believe it when is see it but skeptical until I see it bucket for me https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005371419748950116 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005371419748950116"
X Link 2025-12-28T20:12Z 49.9K followers, [---] engagements
"My Mount Rushmore of stock pickers My litmus test: - Trigger pulling authority on individual fundamentally-researched stocks (i.e. rules out Ken G Jim Simons & the quants) - Permanently changed stock picking at the highest level of capital allocation Buffett: business quality & long duration compounding Robertson: winners/losers & research edge Cohen: idea velocity & alpha machine Druck: macro-aware stock picking & regime awareness) Agree/disagree See arguments for Peter Lynch & Phil Fisher. My [--] year old got a brokerage account for his recent birthday so I'm putting together some materials"
X Link 2026-01-11T04:47Z 50K followers, 24.4K engagements
"Feedback on Claude for Excel so far has been quite poor from the handful of buy-side accounts/friends I have been monitoring & speaking with. It's on my to-do list to play with so will come back with my own thoughts at some point. Effectively new story same as the old story (data reliability & context window / multi-document retrieval / attention degradation issues). These are really hard problems to solve that require multiple vectors of improvement to hit 99%+ reliability (clean data better foundation models & great engineering). Clean data alone is much harder than most think. AI for Excel"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:18Z 50.3K followers, 72.3K engagements
"Testing Deep Research: $MCK and a Cap Deploy Deep Dive Continuing to tinker with ideas for Deep Research workflows. One area I spent a lot of my time analyzing as an analyst & PM was capital deployment. For most of my career I covered healthcare services and most of the big companies in my coverage had very steady LSD-HSD EBIT growth profiles. But many of the companies would turn this tepid EBIT growth profile into more interesting low/mid-teens EPS CAGRS via steady capital deployment (mostly buy-backs but episodic M&A). Many healthcare services companies became "slow compounders" holding"
X Link 2025-06-25T06:33Z 50.4K followers, 23.1K engagements
"Just make it through the excellent recent podcast where @NicolaiTang1 hosted Mala Gaonkar. She talked about how technology has supported automated 3rd party data checks and firms like Lone Pine (and now SurgoCap) do that in a systematic way. Using data to both idea generate and babysit existing ideas is now a common and best practice at the highest levels of institutional investing. What is insanely exciting is that the recent improvements in the Claude complex really start the journey of democratizing this systematic 3rd party data tracking (see below). Sure much data will still sit behind a"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:21Z 50.5K followers, 68K engagements
"I asked my wife for a book for Christmas. She crushed it:"
X Link 2025-12-29T18:34Z 50.7K followers, 429.8K engagements
"Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a voting mechanism in the short term but a weighing mechanism in the long term. I wish I could ask Ben when the moment of "weighing" happens because it seems more to me that stock prices are a perpetual voting mechanism constantly priced on the forward look. The central tension of securities valuation is that virtually all of the data we have to analyze a company is a snapshot of the past yet valuation the present value"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:10Z 50.7K followers, 79.8K engagements
"Been doing this for a while and its shocking how well it works (used to have Claude write and ChatGPT execute but now execute with Opus 4.6) Step [--]. Brain dump into a notes app with Wispr Flow. Disambiguation is key so force yourself to ramble on the task for at least [--] minutes (feels awkward for a while then you get used to it). Short ambiguous workflow articulation will generate inconsistent results. I do this while walking my dog and my neighbors must think Im crazy Step [--]. Copy those notes into ChatGPT and ask to turn it into a prompt. For highly complex tasks ask for a series of prompts."
X Link 2026-02-13T05:15Z 50.7K followers, 157.6K engagements
"@virtu101 Interesting. Will try to figure that out. Any tips or resources helpful to learn how to get started"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:22Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
"This was a very high signal podcast and I havent seen any other public podcasts with Mala - I found it very helpful: https://youtu.be/GUc4krTatOMsi=w3S-zuxt6GWhR7qr https://youtu.be/GUc4krTatOMsi=w3S-zuxt6GWhR7qr"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:22Z 50.7K followers, 14.9K engagements
"expanding on this point i asked as a follow-up: I was simply curious what would come up. Once upon a time I was a Page [--] WGO shareholder so I covered this thing closely. Never did I think to track Elkhart County employment trends as a production capacity proxy Throw all this into the soup and you have an automated due diligence engine. Certainly would require a real engineering & compliance layer on top (no asset manager in the world is going to give Claude Code full desktop control). But it feels like this is no within reach. Exciting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019514989921595678"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:54Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@blueprintsmb22 captured a lot of the nuance of AI in investment research very well. It's easy for software coders to write long think pieces about how AI is going to destroy Wall Street jobs. A software developer hunched over code conducting verifiable work (either the app works or it doesn't) naturally wants to apply that experience to other verticals (without the self-awareness to know better). The AI use cases today in institutional-grade I would say are quite marginal: consuming deep research reports a bit of web scraping & data work and low-trust "first cut" idea generation & idea"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:02Z 50.7K followers, 12.8K engagements
"No just a test that I developed over the years wading into TV debates as [--] years felt too short and [--] years too long. Its arbitrary but generally aligns with market assuming FCF declines so it has worked when my expectation gap is it will grow not shrink and makes the thesis a pretty simple bet https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021809056420442137 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021809056420442137"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:50Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@BigBoyBern80872 oh that's an error thanks for catching - will fix (not capitalized and discounted [--] years so won't move it a lot)"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:34Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@taipan254 It usually shakes out to 8-10% year ahead yields with growing FCF stream vs. 14% flat FCF yield. I just find more of those in the way I invest (growing businesses where market for some observable reason questions growth and it becomes a simple "over" bet on sustained growth)"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:42Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
"I went through this exact journey myself. After [--] years climbing the ladder at hedge funds in NYC and ultimately reaching my goal of becoming a portfolio manager I had a major internal crisis. I had the analytical capabilities to do the job but my nervous system wasn't wired in a way that aligned with navigating the volatility of the marketplace (and workforce) while also finding internal peace & joy. I worked with a coach and he asked me "is this what you want to be doing at 50". I was burned out and no longer found meaning in seeking to generate 300bps of alpha for institutional LPs - the"
X Link 2025-10-24T15:24Z 50.7K followers, 1.4M engagements
"Claude Getting GOOD: $DKNG Data Tracker All the buzz on X seems to be about Claude lately (Claude Code Claude Cowork Claude Excel) so I threw Claude Max this request this morning: This was my entire prompt and what I will show you below took me about [--] minutes. I didn't expect this to work (it doesn't work in Gemini or ChatGPT though both attempted to write the code and would be somewhat helpful in this exercise if I knew any python.I don't). To my delight Claude actually built me a 6-tab tracker in Excel that rolled up total OSB handle & OSB gross gaming revenue. It wasn't perfect (while"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:52Z 50.7K followers, 185.4K engagements
"Claude: Technical Analysis Prompt $IGV $DKNG I prepared for my first hedge fund job by reading all the Buffett letters dismissing technical analysis as unhelpful witchcraft. That shifted a bit over my career. While I still do not believe in technical analysis as a primary decision tool for stock selection personally I was surprised to observe how many high level hedge fund PMs consider technical analysis as a secondary overlay in stock selection particulaly around entry & exit. One multi-manager PM friend advocated for a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) designation telling me it helped him"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:00Z 50.7K followers, 38K engagements
"Claude Experiments: Google Trends $WGO I saw Tony Berkman (founder of Majestic former Two Sigma.one of the most respected alt data guys around) post this comment on his LinkedIn yesterday and it really resonated with me particularly the part about how data vendors "make (their) client's lives easier by shortening the path from non-proprietary data to insights". To an outsider there might be some skepticism about how non-proprietary data can actually be a source of alpha (aren't markets supposed to be efficient) but particularly when considered against the mosaic of broader research many would"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:40Z 50.7K followers, 26.1K engagements
"What people miss about the financial terminal oligopoly is the true moat of these businesses is an aggregation-disaggregation moat. These businesses are essentially group purchasing organizations for financial data. Bloomberg for example spends an estimated $3bn annually on acquiring producing & curating data then slices that cost across 325k terminal users at $30k/seat. No individual buy-side firm could replicate that content stack on their own.not even close. In my opinion AI actually strengthens this moat not the other way around as AI allows an explosion in data driven decision making"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:00Z 50.7K followers, 77.8K engagements
"This is gnarly. Of the [--] stocks in the S&P [---] that are down more than 15% YTD only TWO have been driven majorly by negative EPS revisions (CZR and MOH). After revenue revisions have been 0.0%. The median NTM P/E of this group has compressed from 20.8x to 16.1x with [--] of the [--] trading to a 12x P/E or lower. Cue the "our job is to understand what makes the multiple move" post from Dmitriy but yikes that is painful. Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:41Z 50.7K followers, 50.7K engagements
"Analyze the 13F institutional ownership for TICKER over the last [--] quarters. Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F filings Analysis Requirements: [--]. Big Moves Analysis - Identify the largest position increases (new positions and additions) each quarter - Identify the largest position decreases (exits and reductions) each quarter - Flag any positions that changed by more than 25% quarter-over-quarter - Note any notable new entrants or complete exits [--]. Owner Type Breakdown - Categorize holders into: Hedge Funds Fundamental Long-Only Quant/Systematic Index/Passive (Vanguard BlackRock"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:34Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@virtu101 better idea than using the Claude excel add-in"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:59Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@virtu101 Awesome thank you very much"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:34Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
"LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior analysts (but never had the time). The basic tools needed to survive & thrive on the buy-side: - How to build your investment process - How to conduct a deep dive research process - How to figure out what will move the stock - How to generate investment ideas - How to prepare for a management meeting - How to manage the deluge of information - How to develop & communicate a thesis - How"
X Link 2026-01-14T16:02Z 50.7K followers, 21.4K engagements
"This is a fascinating paper that should be required reading for all Buffett-style value investors In the Graham & Dodd era a value anchor actually did exist via dividend payout & asset values.it was possible to identify a 50c dollar laying on the ground (compounded by inefficiencies in information gathering). In the classic Graham world stocks were claims on near-term cash & assets and you could observe the "weighing machine". This paper articulates what I think we have all observed in markets.duration has expanded as dividend payout ratios have declined and there is less of a tangible value"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:58Z 50.7K followers, 52.2K engagements
"@FundamentEdge https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X25001229 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X25001229"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:39Z [---] followers, 51.9K engagements
"Been doing this for a while and its shocking how well it works (used to have Claude write and ChatGPT execute but now execute with Opus 4.6) Step [--]. Brain dump into a notes app with Wispr Flow. Disambiguation is key so force yourself to ramble on the task for at least [--] minutes (feels awkward for a while then you get used to it). Short ambiguous workflow articulation will generate inconsistent results. I do this while walking my dog and my neighbors must think Im crazy Step [--]. Copy those notes into ChatGPT and ask to turn it into a prompt. For highly complex tasks ask for a series of prompts."
X Link 2026-02-13T05:15Z 50.7K followers, 157.6K engagements
"describe the problem to ChatGPT. ask ChatGPT to generate a prompt. paste the prompt to Claude. works all the time"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:59Z 34.4K followers, 865.3K engagements
"This is gnarly. Of the [--] stocks in the S&P [---] that are down more than 15% YTD only TWO have been driven majorly by negative EPS revisions (CZR and MOH). After revenue revisions have been 0.0%. The median NTM P/E of this group has compressed from 20.8x to 16.1x with [--] of the [--] trading to a 12x P/E or lower. Cue the "our job is to understand what makes the multiple move" post from Dmitriy but yikes that is painful. Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:41Z 50.7K followers, 50.7K engagements
"Terminal Value Debates & the [--] Year Test Terminal value debates drive some of the gnarliest most frustrating moves in the stock market. Ben Graham taught us that the market is a voting mechanism in the short term but a weighing mechanism in the long term. I wish I could ask Ben when the moment of "weighing" happens because it seems more to me that stock prices are a perpetual voting mechanism constantly priced on the forward look. The central tension of securities valuation is that virtually all of the data we have to analyze a company is a snapshot of the past yet valuation the present value"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:10Z 50.7K followers, 79.8K engagements
"KICK OFF TODAY: Our February cohort of the Analyst Academy kicks off in just under one hour with our live orientation. If you are looking to level up your career and gain exposure to an institutional-grade approach to investment research we would love to have you"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements
"https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2011469004846882830 LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior https://t.co/Tg3m8Dqug1 https://x.com/FundamentEdge/status/2011469004846882830 LAUNCHING ANALYST ACADEMY FEB 3rd COHORT Hello We are very excited to be launching our next cohort of Analyst Academy. What is Analyst Academy Six weeks and [--] hours of everything I wanted to teach my junior https://t.co/Tg3m8Dqug1"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [----] engagements
"https://fundamental-edge.teachable.com/p/academy-feb2026 https://fundamental-edge.teachable.com/p/academy-feb2026"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:50Z 50.7K followers, [---] engagements
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