# ![@Frencheconomics Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::480342247.png) @Frencheconomics Simon French

Simon French posts on X about inflation, debt, in the, data the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::480342247/interactions)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #3760 [currencies](/list/currencies)  4.55% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  3.79% [countries](/list/countries)  3.03% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1.52% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.52% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.76% [stocks](/list/stocks)  0.76% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  0.76% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.76%

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation) #240, [debt](/topic/debt) 6.82%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6.06%, [data](/topic/data) #807, [gdp](/topic/gdp) #89, [growth](/topic/growth) 5.3%, [has been](/topic/has-been) 5.3%, [gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth) #10, [this is](/topic/this-is) 3.03%, [market](/topic/market) #521

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@billwells_1](/creator/undefined) [@conkers3](/creator/undefined) [@truemagic68](/creator/undefined) [@trevgoes4th](/creator/undefined) [@timgoldfinch](/creator/undefined) [@johnstepek](/creator/undefined) [@thetimes](/creator/undefined) [@quant48](/creator/undefined) [@dmcwilliams_uk](/creator/undefined) [@kris_predict](/creator/undefined) [@daverichards200](/creator/undefined) [@ons](/creator/undefined) [@timesbusiness](/creator/undefined) [@bankofengland](/creator/undefined) [@jjpjolly](/creator/undefined) [@wilfredfrost](/creator/undefined) [@john_stepek](/creator/undefined) [@brendanand21962](/creator/undefined) [@bollingomatic](/creator/undefined) [@emr_recruitment](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL)](/topic/dell) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"For the avoidance of doubt this is not a critique of the current government - simply presenting the available data since election day in [----] and comparing it to the previous political cycle. If there is a critique it is that the scale of ambition needed to restore UK competitiveness in energy labour and capital markets has been underestimated - and there is a conspiracy of silence on the trade offs needed to achieve this. Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021870477942108390)  2026-02-12T08:54Z 18.6K followers, 24.4K engagements


"The story of the last thirty years: fastest per capita GDP growth pre-GFC middle of the pack through to CV-19 flatlining thereafter. Hard to argue faced by this data that the cumulative burden of frictions to competitive energy labour and capital markets (frictions which have all grown over this period) are pro-growth. For the avoidance of doubt this is not a critique of the current government - simply presenting the available data since election day in [----] and comparing it to the previous political cycle. If there is a critique it is that the scale of ambition needed to restore UK For the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021902085038424179)  2026-02-12T10:59Z 18.6K followers, 26.7K engagements


"I agree with Angela. NLW NICs & ERA in one go (on the heels of auto enrolment) speaks to a lack of awareness on the cumulative cost to employers. Where was the labour market advice/analysis provided by HMT/DWP Or was it ignored Angela Rayner of all people has just said that the minimum wage going up is a "challenge" for businesses. "Too often people see businesses as all the same - theyre not. I talked about the challenges - its not even the double whammy its not even the triple whammy its Angela Rayner of all people has just said that the minimum wage going up is a "challenge" for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2022029207677907123)  2026-02-12T19:25Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"That bellwether of UK consumer demand - Next plc - showing this AM a clear pick up in full price sales from end of July. Tallies with evidence from B&M that the midmarket UK consumer has had a better few weeks than the weather-impacted mid-summer. Decent indicator of firmer spending appetite after the first UK rate cut. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836658515886182458 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836658515886182458"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1836658515886182458)  2024-09-19T06:48Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"And this data is why for all the negativity surrounding UK economic sentiment it is hard to stack up a recessionary forecast. With household cash balances in aggregate in a strong position (gross hhld cash 2tn; gross hhld debt 1.8tn) the upside risk remains any reversion to more modest cash balance accrual potentially geared by some re-leveraging. Quite clear in the data how the speculation of the last three fiscal events in the UK has triggered some precautionary saving from households. Total cash balances across cash sight & time accounts and ISAs now above [--] trillion for the first time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2008130413361877005)  2026-01-05T10:56Z 18.4K followers, 15.4K engagements


"@John_Stepek Make them IHT exempt and the 10Y starts with a 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2013184918386262305)  2026-01-19T09:41Z 18.4K followers, 170.1K engagements


"This looks fishy to me. Rightmove had been undershooting other UK HPIs for around [--] months - so this looks more like a bridge up to the Nationwide Halifax and Land Registry data rather than a sudden rebound in sentiment. Rightmove reports largest ever January price jump: Average asking prices are now back to where they were last Summer. https://t.co/5B1F3b1qAM https://t.co/Oz75Bk6oMs Rightmove reports largest ever January price jump: Average asking prices are now back to where they were last Summer. https://t.co/5B1F3b1qAM https://t.co/Oz75Bk6oMs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2013238841541357804)  2026-01-19T13:15Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"UK CPI inflation modestly ahead of market expectations at +3.4% YoY (+3.2% prev.). The evolution of the index left consumer price growth slightly ahead of its [----] growth but that was heavily driven by the April price shock which looks unlikely to repeat in [----]. Expect the annual inflation rate to move down closer to target in Q2 [--]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013876226578845776 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013876226578845776"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2013876226578845776)  2026-01-21T07:28Z 18.4K followers, 10.8K engagements


"$2.3tn knocked off global software stocks since the end of October. $2.1tn of that in the US equity market. We are conditioned to old economy disintermediation. Claude AI is disintermediating the disintermediators"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2019032101186916670)  2026-02-04T12:55Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Option [--]. Move en masse to Hull. 🚨 NEW: MPs and peers must vote on two options to restore the Palace of Westminster 1: Fully move-out for [----] years (11-15bn) 2: Phased works over [----] years in which the Lords move out to a conference centre and MPs use their chamber for [--] years from [----] (19-39bn) 🚨 NEW: MPs and peers must vote on two options to restore the Palace of Westminster 1: Fully move-out for [----] years (11-15bn) 2: Phased works over [----] years in which the Lords move out to a conference centre and MPs use their chamber for [--] years from [----] (19-39bn)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2019697924998111737)  2026-02-06T09:01Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@PhilAldrick Lack of hiring. I wonder why. The conspiracy of silence on the decoupling of starter wage rates and productivity since [----] is deafening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2019768115479888285)  2026-02-06T13:40Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Since [----] the real terms value of the National Living Wage has gone up 32% whilst productivity has risen by just 6%. This and a trio of other employment costs have put the UK labour market into reverse. My thoughts in todays @thetimes here: https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britains-economic-growth-l67swlvp6 https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britains-economic-growth-l67swlvp6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2020743243038658703)  2026-02-09T06:15Z 18.5K followers, 16.5K engagements


"With a non-paywall version available here: https://panmureliberum.com/insights/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britain-s-economic-growth/ https://panmureliberum.com/insights/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britain-s-economic-growth/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2020750645746167997)  2026-02-09T06:44Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Id venture there would a 50bp additional Gilt spread if this were to represent the change in Labour leadership. Widely seen as the single biggest barrier to growth and to a lower cost of living from this government. 🗣 'It sounds a little bit like this is your own leadership pitch' - @SophyRidgeSky 🗣 'Absolute baloney' - @Ed_Miliband 🗣 'Are you interested at all - Sophy 🗣 'No I am interested in supporting Keir Starmer' - Ed https://t.co/pgTTtPQIDE https://t.co/6HnqmoRldp 🗣 'It sounds a little bit like this is your own leadership pitch' - @SophyRidgeSky 🗣 'Absolute baloney' - @Ed_Miliband"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021123986805977242)  2026-02-10T07:28Z 18.5K followers, 21.2K engagements


"👇💯 The UK's minimum wage is now around two-thirds of the median wage. On any objective measure it's one of the highest minimum wages in the world. It's a significant price-setting policy intervention. So what exactly is the argument here The UK's minimum wage is now around two-thirds of the median wage. On any objective measure it's one of the highest minimum wages in the world. It's a significant price-setting policy intervention. So what exactly is the argument here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021574230416986280)  2026-02-11T13:17Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Quant48 Your calculation is on the blink"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021916302420402606)  2026-02-12T11:56Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks for sharing David - a good read and certainly making the grocery market more contestable through planning reform would appear a very sensible proposal. What I struggle with is the idea of greater EU alignment bringing down costs. The price of food and drink has risen by less in the UK than in the EU-27 since Q1 [----] and this despite a substantial GBPEUR devaluation to absorb over the period. Also the most EU import intensive subcomponents for teh UK (fresh fruit & veg) have also followed this trend - arguably more. I think I struggle to see (despite the theory) how you could get to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2022311887891787904)  2026-02-13T14:08Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021843344402386987)  2026-02-12T07:06Z 18.6K followers, 115.6K engagements


"@truemagic68 Heading to zero David. Strap in. 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023331063720796645)  2026-02-16T09:38Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Loss of growth momentum since late [----] albeit the secondary surge in inflationary factors (NICs regulated prices mortgage refi) that drove this are steadily easing and real time indicators are trending higher in Q1 [--]. Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding [--] years. https://t.co/yV7Po8wAmF Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021846562432069859)  2026-02-12T07:19Z 18.6K followers, 12.4K engagements


"If you want a silver lining to today's UK GDP data I'd point to two. Firstly UK GDP has either beaten or matched start of year consensus in each of the last four calendar years. That is impressive resilience (Black Knight from Monty Python vibes.). Secondly more timely economic data at the start of [----] has been more upbeat on expectation of an easing of inflation pressure in Q2. A new "ming vase" for domestic politics not to derail. Loss of growth momentum since late [----] albeit the secondary surge in inflationary factors (NICs regulated prices mortgage refi) that drove this are steadily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021857684568334685)  2026-02-12T08:03Z 18.6K followers, 13.7K engagements


"As almost all recent Chancellor's have (correctly) noted the UK has a longstanding investment gap that undermines the ability to grow the economy sustainably. [----] was no different albeit the trend is modestly encouraging. The left of UK politics have an agenda they could seize on accelerating capital deployment (where this government have been trying in pockets of activity to turn the tanker around) and lowering the relative cost of capital vs consumption. And yet significant figures on the left waffle on about "deregulated markets" as if that is the impediment to sustained growth. If you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021863530786414909)  2026-02-12T08:26Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"The thing the government should cling to is there has been a pick-up in our Economic Momentum Indicator (EMI) since the November Budget (moving off the bottom of the European league table) which chimes with what @dsmitheconomics has been saying about a better start to the year. The potential for political infighting in Labour to derail this is the strongest argument for the political status quo - all against the backdrop of underwhelming economic data. The story of the last thirty years: fastest per capita GDP growth pre-GFC middle of the pack through to CV-19 flatlining thereafter. Hard to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2021968322032541842)  2026-02-12T15:23Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"The power of the default. Would be transformative for planning 👏👏 Germany's Merz: China builds the worlds largest solar farms within a few months. In the EU it takes years just for the project to get approved. Therefore I propose to implement a fundamental principle in most permitting processes: Any project that is not treated within a https://t.co/Ow9ldjOik9 Germany's Merz: China builds the worlds largest solar farms within a few months. In the EU it takes years just for the project to get approved. Therefore I propose to implement a fundamental principle in most permitting processes: Any"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2022205005303029962)  2026-02-13T07:03Z 18.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"Catherine is right. Albeit the move from 48% to 66% of median earnings was done under Conservative governments - so the attribution of blame to Labour many are giving is unfair. The more just criticism is introducing the ERA & big increase in Employer NICs in full knowledge of these legacy NLW moves. UK minimum wage is raising youth unemployment Bank of England's Mann says https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/Fx9z0fEnaC UK minimum wage is raising youth unemployment Bank of England's Mann says https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/Fx9z0fEnaC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023040072698785999)  2026-02-15T14:21Z 18.6K followers, 24.8K engagements


"UK 10-year yields down to 4.4% again this morning a full 70bp below the level in the OBR's November forecast. That's an 11bn addition to headroom on a mark-to-market basis - so not unhelpful ahead of the Spring Forecast in just over two weeks' time (if captured/conditioned). But dig below the surface and the spread between Gilts and other G7 sovereigns has nudged out by 20bp since Labour leadership speculation has amplified. That domestic discount is the more relevant piece of information for measuring "fiscal vibes""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023313814817562973)  2026-02-16T08:29Z 18.6K followers, 39K engagements


"I'll try. Good luck trying to "price in" an outcome when the process for a Labour leadership challenge is unclear at least six candidates look set to run if it does emerge and the chances that a soft left candidate (even if victorious) proves less fiscally expansionary than the platform they campaign on. Knowing all this I am not sure you'd take a conviction position https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023318635809255648 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023318635809255648"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023318635809255648)  2026-02-16T08:48Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing. Headlines will focus on the rise in unemployment to 5.2% (as this govt and previous governments have overdone the burden on employers) but both the UK unemployment rate and inactivity rate are below the average of the last 25Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023659426943574212)  2026-02-17T07:22Z 18.6K followers, 22.6K engagements


"The U6 unemployment rate (including those who cant find full time work and want it) nudging 8% of the working age population. First sustained rise outside the pandemic since the GFC. Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing. Headlines will focus on the rise in unemployment to 5.2% (as this govt and previous governments have overdone the burden on employers) but both the UK https://t.co/9pQbzwqGHi Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023662066683314431)  2026-02-17T07:33Z 18.6K followers, 20.5K engagements


"Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the penny is now dropping on policy/tax burden on employers then underlying demand can see this return to jobs growth (notwithstanding AI risks). Whether NLW policy gets revisited (66% of median hourly earnings makes the UK a significant outlier) or employer NICs headwind gets softened is far less clear The U6 unemployment rate (including those who cant find full time work and want it) nudging 8% of the working age population. First sustained rise outside the pandemic since the GFC. https://t.co/J3jNXvFAYQ The U6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023665273350262987)  2026-02-17T07:46Z 18.6K followers, 23.9K engagements


"RT @antonhowes: Extraordinary graph. Suggests that the national minimum wage has been set so high because only London (and the South East)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023669557869650371)  2026-02-17T08:03Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements


"Markets now pricing in a March interest rate cut in the UK with an 80% probability. If Bailey/Mann are going to flip their vote from February will likely have to stack this up on emerging LM slack putting more downward pressure on price growth. Tricky comms with headline inflation by March not yet capturing big April base effects and hard to be certain that move back to inflation target is durable given CPI has averaged 3% since [----]. Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the penny is now dropping on policy/tax burden on employers then underlying demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/2023689702818107791)  2026-02-17T09:23Z 18.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"The report is absolutely an exposition of the unsustainability of current fiscal arrangements. 270% debt/GDP by [----] simply diverts too much of current resources to debt servicing - and generational/creditor mismatches add to that strain. But the exit plan/ reset is a question of the politics aligning rather than the economic research (as good as it is) becoming sufficiently compelling. (5/5)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1942613837087125807)  2025-07-08T15:56Z 16K followers, [----] engagements


"@BarretK Thanks - I have been grappling with that point for a while and @dominicoc has questioned me on it on a couple of occasions. I have no idea whether the bond market is that rational - but amidst a suite of difficult options it should be amongst them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1942637786378690833)  2025-07-08T17:31Z 16K followers, [---] engagements


"That's not correct. The fair criticism is that the Prime Minister is cherry-picking his business confidence measure. Standardising all five UK surveys and the Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) data is a clear outlier to trend. PMQs: The Prime Minister is lying again - business confidence is at a [--] year low and foreign investment at record lows https://t.co/eKWU6G9mA5 PMQs: The Prime Minister is lying again - business confidence is at a [--] year low and foreign investment at record lows https://t.co/eKWU6G9mA5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1943230587025883196)  2025-07-10T08:47Z 17.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Economists who forecast this are only creating a rod for their own back. Noisy nonsense - needs sunsetting by the new ONS leadership. UK economy shrinks by 0.1% in May. Economists had expected it to grow by 0.1% UK economy shrinks by 0.1% in May. Economists had expected it to grow by 0.1%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1943554813674782946)  2025-07-11T06:15Z 16K followers, 17.4K engagements


"@trevgoes4th Fastest growing economy in the G7 in Q1 [----] 🎣"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1943567062179447241)  2025-07-11T07:04Z 16K followers, [--] engagements


"Based on front running of the Chancellors Mansion House speech tonight and legacy announcements this will be a speech of four tenets. 1) The financial services sector plan - one of eight in the industrial strategy and buttressed by the largely enacted Edinburgh Reforms and restated ambitions surrounding payments technology and tokenised innovation. 2) Affirming the governments wish to get asset allocation nudged (other words are available) into more productive assets (an ISA consultation trumpeting the Mansion House Compact outlining hopes for the PISCES exchange); 3) Rolling back overzealous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1945047586307547358)  2025-07-15T09:07Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"One of the tricky aspects to the MPC's upcoming deliberations is the run rate for UK consumer price growth. 3.6% YoY is just one measure and looks all a bit Bazball. Another way to look at it is that the [----] trend has been close to 2014-2021 average (ex April and the EPC/NICs spike) and rather more Tavare (niche cricket reference here). Respectable argument for that April bump being "stored up" inflationary pressure but equally respectable view (supported by wage surveys) that underlying price growth is moderating. Wouldn't at all surprise me to see another three-way split on the MPC in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1945387687411634222)  2025-07-16T07:39Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"A further tricky aspect is the judgement on what the hell is going on in the UK labour market. PAYE employment has fallen [------] from its July [----] peak. LFS suggesting total employment is up [------] over the same period. Possible payroll-to-self employment pivot but not supported by the LFS disaggregation. Historic PAYE revisions (average 70k PAYE underestimate over the course of 2023-24) cant explain the gap either. #flyingblind One of the tricky aspects to the MPC's upcoming deliberations is the run rate for UK consumer price growth. 3.6% YoY is just one measure and looks all a bit Bazball."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1945402750986039537)  2025-07-16T08:38Z 16K followers, [----] engagements


"More encouragingly working age inactivity now seeing a sharp reversals on the post-pandemic increases. Numbers down to 9.1m and the rate down to 21% - this aspect of the UK labour market is making progress despite clear demand weakness. A decidedly mixed UK jobs report with payroll employment falls accelerating in June and now averaging 17k/month since last year's General Election. Policy indigestion from combination of NLW employee rights package & employer NICs burden the most likely drivers of this https://t.co/FfOoBndVMn A decidedly mixed UK jobs report with payroll employment falls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1945731140943228953)  2025-07-17T06:23Z 16K followers, 10.1K engagements


"@ColeFusionHQ Inactivity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1945731818931560620)  2025-07-17T06:26Z 16K followers, [---] engagements


"No I don't think this is happening - certainly not widely. I have seen three schools-of-thought on this broad area. One a cultural piece on self-employment & entrepreneurship. But most benchmarks I have seen suggests this US/UK difference is small in aggregate. The second is the returns to capital (pre and post tax) are just less attractive - and that probably holds more weight looking at UK vs US public company EPS over recent decades. The third (and naturally one I lean towards) is that our pools of funding capital are too fragmented/ constrained in the UK to support this. The lack of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1946167431535513613)  2025-07-18T11:17Z 16K followers, [----] engagements


"Pretty sensible of the Chancellor to rule this out for three reasons. The most important (agnostic of what you think of the wisdom of extending wealth taxation in the UK) is there is zero chance of the UK data being available anytime soon to do a comprehensive levy on net assets. So all you get is downside risk to sentiment/the tax base if speculation is allowed to go unchecked into the Budget. Second almost all the international examples of annual wealth levies have been self-defeating and raised little revenue. Third there are a series of asset-based taxes and allowances that pre-exist with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1947192600726790547)  2025-07-21T07:11Z 16.9K followers, 15.3K engagements


"However politically difficult the UK government think this is they need to weigh it up against increasing signs from Gilt market pricing that creditors are suspicious about long term liabilities are being left unaddressed (particularly the state pension public sector pensions fuel duty/road pricing transition & healthcare). A form of fiscal "operation twist" where convincing the bond market of determination on long-term difficult decisions yields a near-term fiscal dividend (through lower yields) deserves more attention. Most other routes through have been closed off in recent years. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1947260349264048131)  2025-07-21T11:40Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Some signs of production levelling out but the last decade has been a "lost decade" for UK car production UK vehicle production falls but foundations set for recovery https://t.co/byueJH6zn9 https://t.co/3xMw9dx7Ug UK vehicle production falls but foundations set for recovery https://t.co/byueJH6zn9 https://t.co/3xMw9dx7Ug"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1948270494110589030)  2025-07-24T06:34Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Another uncomfortable data point for the BoE ahead of the August MPC. July flash PMI survey signalling the fastest shedding of employees since February - casting doubt on labour market adjustment to recent NICs increases. But new inflationary pressures starting to emerge in the supply chain. Still likely to be a hawkish 25bp cut - but the data is doing the Bank no favours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1948325066342646254)  2025-07-24T10:11Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Whatever happens next for Mileinomics the Conservatives using it as a template opens up the option of a genuine set of economic choices for the electorate at the next UK General Election. It remains to be seen whether anyone is prepared to listen mind you. https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/can-kemi-badenoch-sell-mileinomics-in-britain-s8vmqhm72 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/can-kemi-badenoch-sell-mileinomics-in-britain-s8vmqhm72 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/can-kemi-badenoch-sell-mileinomics-in-britain-s8vmqhm72"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1949710033282838941)  2025-07-28T05:54Z 16.1K followers, 14.5K engagements


"The scale X meltdown over USD tells you how most investment strategies/ sell side calls however sophisticated have become something of a Dollar proxy. Somewhat inevitable result when the market benchmark has become so concentrated in one region"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950110280194605091)  2025-07-29T08:24Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Overall accrual of cash deposits was just shy of 6bn in June in line with its long term average. Only limited evidence that the caution surrounding Oct and Mar "fiscal events" was replicated amidst recent warnings of a tough Autumn Budget. One to watch. (2/4)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950137189859311864)  2025-07-29T10:11Z 16.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Fascinating to read that "Trump Accounts" - passed in the Big Beautiful Bill - are basically the US version of the British ISA. Did the US corporate and savings industry come out to criticise this as financial repression Nope. CEO's of GS Uber and Dell all with supportive comments: @MerrynSW @John_Stepek https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/trump-accounts-will-chart-path-to-prosperity-for-a-generation-of-american-kids/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/trump-accounts-will-chart-path-to-prosperity-for-a-generation-of-american-kids/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950800442574725477)  2025-07-31T06:07Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@DaveRichards200 Will be interesting to see whether Trump Accounts will be deemed a similar failure for those reasons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950817213700600020)  2025-07-31T07:14Z 16.1K followers, [---] engagements


"@DaveRichards200 That becomes self-fulfilling if there is a cost of equity capital gap between the US and UK persists. Great UK IP gets snapped up and relisted in the US because of this spread - creating a -ve compositional feedback loop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950818315238080545)  2025-07-31T07:18Z 16.9K followers, [--] engagements


"Whilst it is great to see the Lloyds (LBG) business confidence survey at a 10-year high - - the issue is this survey is an outlier to all other UK business sentiment surveys available. I always try & be cup-half-full on the UK but this needs to be treated with caution. https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2025/lloyds-bank-2025/july-business-barometer.html https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2025/lloyds-bank-2025/july-business-barometer.html https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2025/lloyds-bank-2025/july-business-barometer.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1950834463086104611)  2025-07-31T08:22Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"The single most important data point in this mornings UK jobs data was (probably) total hours worked. As the denominator in the labour productivity measure it will be central to the OBRs assessment of potential output growth in the Autumn. Total hours picked up again in May after a jump in April (so running at +0.9% QoQ) - and amidst no GDP growth in either of these months (the numerator) tees up another poor quarter for UK productivity. OBR expect compound labour force productivity growth of 6% by [----] - but this measure is basically unchanged from late [----]. Ripe for a reassessment and 10s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955148314216636536)  2025-08-12T06:04Z 16.1K followers, 20.9K engagements


"Pick your fighter. UK employment is either up 1.1% since last year's general election or down 0.4% - or both series are accurate and there has been a [------] increase in self employment not (yet) being picked up in the LFS. Data fog continues. The single most important data point in this mornings UK jobs data was (probably) total hours worked. As the denominator in the labour productivity measure it will be central to the OBRs assessment of potential output growth in the Autumn. Total hours picked up again in May https://t.co/sVHydoGDqj The single most important data point in this mornings UK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955150789111939202)  2025-08-12T06:14Z 16.1K followers, 18K engagements


"One of the more fascinating aspects of the "BorisWave" of third country inward migration to the UK is how it has been associated with a big rise in the employment rate for non-UK/non-EU nationals. Today this group are estimated to have an employment rate in line with UK nationals - there was a -15ppt difference as recently as a decade ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955170296735924479)  2025-08-12T07:31Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"A slowdown in price growth of the most tariff-exposed US goods in the CPI basket. That's what financial markets wanted to see to buttress hopes for a September rate cut (now at 90%) despite core US inflation running at +3.1% YoY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955252813597954235)  2025-08-12T12:59Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Great to see Rolls Royce quite so confident on the outlook and front footed on its public market valuation - h/t @BBCSimonJack https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8772d4jzgo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8772d4jzgo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955502862748057640)  2025-08-13T05:33Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements


"On response rates alone it is easier to make the argument in the UK (than the US) for suspending the monthly job numbers given the response rate is 21% to the LFS and only 43% to the CES. Leavitt confirms that monthly jobs reports may be suspended "until they can get the data and methodology in order" https://t.co/rBNgtuNfmn Leavitt confirms that monthly jobs reports may be suspended "until they can get the data and methodology in order" https://t.co/rBNgtuNfmn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955669791596855792)  2025-08-13T16:36Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"On the UK government's target to have the fastest sustainable growth rate in the G7. A year in and the UK is middle of the pack at +0.7% YoY on a per capita basis - albeit that trend has been on an improving profile in H1 as population growth slows and aggregate GDP growth picked up in H1. Decent UK GDP growth in June - and revisions higher to April - meaning UK GDP of +0.3% in Q2. UK currently the fastest growing G7 economy in H1 at an annualised rate of 2.2%. https://t.co/3UsD5eEtAu Decent UK GDP growth in June - and revisions higher to April - meaning UK GDP of +0.3% in Q2. UK currently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1955889270930993320)  2025-08-14T07:08Z 16.1K followers, [----] engagements


"American investors pile into UK shares in boost to London market - top stuff from @jilltreanor https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/american-investors-pile-into-uk-shares-in-boost-to-london-market-qw0hnwbdv https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/american-investors-pile-into-uk-shares-in-boost-to-london-market-qw0hnwbdv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1956944825393053725)  2025-08-17T05:02Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements


"It will be interesting to see how many Labour backbenchers - currently showing economically naive attitudes to debt inflation & growth - respond to the frequent signals now coming from the bond market. My personal view is that if the PM wont forcefully back his Chancellor and her initial instincts on the optimal split of fiscal repair undertaken by dept spending control/welfare/tax increases then Reeves should resign in dignified protest. "UK 30-Year Inflation-Linked Yields Hit Highest Since 1998" via @Bloomberg @Business https://t.co/UxLzyGxAPl "UK 30-Year Inflation-Linked Yields Hit Highest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1957474526272356842)  2025-08-18T16:07Z 16.2K followers, 62.7K engagements


"@trevgoes4th Personal view. She is a good person with generally good (economic) instincts. But all Chancellors need backing from their PMs to push through difficult decisions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1957480604481605837)  2025-08-18T16:31Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements


"There is also the "April effect" to take into account in any YoY UK inflation data. Run rate price growth outside April has actually been rather closer to the 2014-2021 average. This might act as a slight comfort to monetary policy makers at the Bank but is quite an indictment of the indexation effect (and the role of government) in setting higher prices as most of the April impact is from regulated prices. This is a good take. Breadth moderated in UK CPI in July but we had a feint like that in the August [----] and December [----] data and price growth broadened back out. https://t.co/XV428I5xdm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1958060024887967766)  2025-08-20T06:54Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements


"The big difference (and the one that challenges the govt's economic record) is that whilst the UK was a high beta inflation economy in 2021-2023 the trend over this period was almost exactly the same as the rest of the G20 - just higher amplitude. In recent months the trend has diverged. That makes the "global factors" defence harder to make. It really is very unfortunate for this new government that inflation has taken off again right after the general election. https://t.co/vkElBhBblO It really is very unfortunate for this new government that inflation has taken off again right after the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1958157823692468701)  2025-08-20T13:23Z 16.2K followers, 17.4K engagements


"@pdragoumis I think both are valid factors and hard to disentangle as both had big impacts to the April data this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1958160694739915060)  2025-08-20T13:34Z 16.2K followers, [---] engagements


"An eight-month high in UK consumer confidence (-17; [---] prev.) and the continuation of a steady rebound in sentiment from the April low. Despite elevated inflation consumers feeling more confident on the outlook for their personal finances. The concern would be the next two months of pre-Budget speculation risks putting new downward pressure on sentiment - in a mirror of H2 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1958778170183659653)  2025-08-22T06:28Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Fed Chair's comments at #JacksonHole look like any September cut in the US should only be seen at this stage at least as an insurance cut on downside risk - rather than a definitive pivot towards a renewed US cutting cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1958898533437768126)  2025-08-22T14:26Z 16.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Nonpaywall here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1959869967005876638)  2025-08-25T06:46Z 16.8K followers, [----] engagements


"On the IMF bailout story the first thing to say is the three economist quoted (Buiter Chadha & Sentance) are not your usual rent-a-quote right-wingers so there is credibility. There are plenty of kernels of truth here around the long term sustainability of the UK public finances and growing signs that the debt market will demand penal rates to fund that trajectory. The challenge for policymakers is that avoiding troika-style intervention to impose austerity/sustained primary surplus would involve delivering a troika-style intervention voluntarily. Good luck with that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1959887664326365195)  2025-08-25T07:56Z 16.5K followers, 65.5K engagements


"One of the issues TB would be citing if he were in his old seat at the Resolution Foundation would be why the UK's borrowing costs are now persistently higher than the G7. If the "moron premium" was Mini Budget-related and it remerged in mid-2023 on sustained inflation fears it has made its most durable comeback since the Spring Statement. Even if you buy the argument that is monetary policy related then the inflation catalyst (according to most qualitative survey data) was the choice of employer NICs and the passthrough to services inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1960252396736520702)  2025-08-26T08:06Z 16.4K followers, 48.5K engagements


"One of the answers the reshuffled team will have to address is why the cleanest definition of a UK "moron premium" on Gilt yields has (most durably) emerged since the Spring Statement (also flickered in Mini Budget and mid-2023). Stubborn inflation and a hawkish BoE could be cited but all qualitative data (see last week's PMIs) suggest that hawkishness is a function of fiscal/regulatory choices since the General Election. Bond market pricing suggests UK fiscal policy is drifting without an anchor. Exc: Torsten Bell rises as Rachel Reeves reshuffles her team. The former Resolution Foundation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1960254417673863411)  2025-08-26T08:14Z 16.7K followers, 38.9K engagements


"Good summary by Julian on the UK's Energy Price Cap. I would add two points: Firstly thanks to the recent fall in the gas futures the Price Cap is forecast to drop back 3% in Q1 [----]. Things can still change but encouraging for disposable income. Ofgem announces that the energy price cap will rise by 2% from October. 🤔 Three quick thoughts [--] this is at least less than the 10% increase in October [----] so the annual rate of energy inflation will still fall sharply when this kicks in. https://t.co/PImEFmWFgo Ofgem announces that the energy price cap will rise by 2% from October. 🤔 Three quick"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1960621319860396523)  2025-08-27T08:32Z 16.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Secondly whilst the nominal EPC is up [---] p.a. on the start of the Ukraine war when deflated by nominal wage growth this is up a more modest [---] p.a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1960621323518202341)  2025-08-27T08:32Z 16.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Almost all economic decisions impacting the UK at present can be looked at through the lens of a step change lower in per capita GDP growth. Prior to [----] (pandemic & Brexit) the UK economy averaged GDP per capita growth in the 65th percentile of the G7 range. Since [----] just the 23rd percentile. Capital allocation immigration policy housing policy tax policy all dealing with this step change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1961392108574572687)  2025-08-29T11:34Z 16.9K followers, 14.5K engagements


"The immediate market reaction is not exactly a vote of confidence on these moves. Markets seeing it as a signal of more Gilt issuance/ inflation to come. Yield spread between what UK 10Y paper trading at - and max from the rest of the G7 - is now at +50bp. That's the highest on record and takes out the Spring Statement high. New economic team needs to show No.10 gets this dynamic and backs their Chancellor. Reshuffle https://t.co/fBn7fGiSf6 Reshuffle https://t.co/fBn7fGiSf6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1962467181532270733)  2025-09-01T10:46Z 16.9K followers, 52.5K engagements


"@TrisOsborneMP And rightly so. The likelihood of a technical default is negligible given sovereign debt issuance & currency - but a higher interest rate spread is suggesting concerns over inflation and value of Sterling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1962540555000295723)  2025-09-01T15:38Z 16.9K followers, [---] engagements


"I think there is something to this and I have also been critical of active QT and crystallising losses for taxpayers in return for reduced interest rate risk. But there is also something of an overstatement of active QT in the UK causing more rapid balance sheet divestment. I would say only in the last six months has the pace been quicker than the major benchmarks at the Fed and ECB. Generally active sales just necessary (due to long duration) to keep pace with other CBs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1962553532004913213)  2025-09-01T16:29Z 16.8K followers, [---] engagements


"Some really good @X feedback on yesterday's spreads chart in particular that events in Italy & the US can give a overly UK-centric view on the bond market verdict to the UK's fiscal stance. Looking at the spread to the G7 median shows that the additional yield on UK 10Y debt at 130bp is lower than at the Spring Statement - but in line with the Mini Budget and inflation exceptionalism in mid-2023. The immediate market reaction is not exactly a vote of confidence on these moves. Markets seeing it as a signal of more Gilt issuance/ inflation to come. Yield spread between what UK 10Y paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1962778694671315290)  2025-09-02T07:24Z 16.9K followers, 93.9K engagements


"Two statements that are true. Long end yields are rising around the world amidst a structural shift in demand (and likely to be larger in the UK due to an outsized legacy of DB pension schemes). Also true - the UK is experiencing asymmetric inflation right now that means investors are demanding higher compensation to hold UK debt. Some really good @X feedback on yesterday's spreads chart in particular that events in Italy & the US can give a overly UK-centric view on the bond market verdict to the UK's fiscal stance. Looking at the spread to the G7 median shows that the additional yield on UK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1962798785949548985)  2025-09-02T08:44Z 16.9K followers, 14.2K engagements


"Wonder no more. We will. What should encourage people is that there is a UK economy trying to grow (H1 growth was very decent) but it does need a sensible energy policy to supplement changes to QT and a line of sight (NLW pensions) to less inflationary price setting. Not impossible asks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1963469017353494874)  2025-09-04T05:07Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements


"My keynote address at the recent @_investorsummit. A deliberately "glass half full" case for UK investment (& a helpful reminder after the rollercoaster week for Gilts/ GBP) h/t @conkers3 for putting on such an impressive event. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=npjkA4u4BNw https://www.youtube.com/watchv=npjkA4u4BNw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1963563006677139672)  2025-09-04T11:21Z 16.9K followers, 10.9K engagements


"A bit of a lumpy data series for UK retail sales. Kudos to the @ONS (not something I have said a lot recently) for leading the release with the 3-month average data which shows sales volumes -0.6% QoQ. However expect this to rebound strongly next month as a weak May leaves the data (1/2)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1963851338053562401)  2025-09-05T06:27Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Soft US jobs print has UK Gilt yields (10Y 4.7%) and GBPUSD back where they started the week. Not unhelpful for the narrative that funding costs are as much a function of international factors as domestic fiscal policy. The US jobs report is genuinely soft - U6 unemployment rate (8.1%) and average duration (24.3 weeks) both up. Market now seeing rate cuts of 25bp at each of the remaining three FOMC meetings this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1963948687140266316)  2025-09-05T12:53Z 17.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Time for a reboot as well as reshuffle My column in todays @thetimes on how to stop the markets scepticism over growth & inflation derailing the supply side efforts of this government https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/after-the-cabinet-reshuffle-how-about-an-economic-reboot-too-c55kjg7w3 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/after-the-cabinet-reshuffle-how-about-an-economic-reboot-too-c55kjg7w3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1964924861098394051)  2025-09-08T05:32Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Im afraid it is very hard for the government to argue its primary mission is growth when Ineos make this judgement about its UK operations. Reform UK and (belatedly) the Conservatives seem on a more sensible track https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/jim-ratcliffes-ineos-energy-ends-uk-investment-jq96lh0w9 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/jim-ratcliffes-ineos-energy-ends-uk-investment-jq96lh0w9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1965372117668823361)  2025-09-09T11:10Z 16.9K followers, 16.1K engagements


"+1 Abolish monthly UK GDP https://t.co/IdAuKNZPOg Abolish monthly UK GDP https://t.co/IdAuKNZPOg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1965646725017907451)  2025-09-10T05:21Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Another soft UK labour market report with vacancies 🔽 unemployment 🔼 & even the workforce jobs estimate of employment (hitherto strong) levelling off. A bit like inflation the UK is looking an asymmetric outlier in recent times to the G20 average - with NICs & NLW changes most regularly cited in recruiter surveys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1967837149857812958)  2025-09-16T06:25Z 17.1K followers, 19.1K engagements


"@zatzi Over a long period (since WW2) there is actually remarkably little difference in the unemployment inflation and growth performance under the two main parties - I did the analysis ahead of last years GE. But the recent softening does look to be a clear reaction to govt policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1967861206435406101)  2025-09-16T08:00Z 16.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@realVickyPryce Agreed. I think we have seen a creditable change of tone from the government in recent weeks about the importance of fiscal policy/ regulation in controlling inflation. The problem (as you know 😉) is saying that out loud is the easy bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1968229981986939206)  2025-09-17T08:26Z 17.1K followers, [---] engagements


"The OBR has no pre-ordained reason to exist in the UKs economic framework. But if you want to abolish it you do so from a position of strength not weakness. The bond market is telling the government that its in a weak position. My thoughts in @thetimes https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/labour-mps-attacking-the-obr-should-take-a-look-at-themselves-tzqh0slt2 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/labour-mps-attacking-the-obr-should-take-a-look-at-themselves-tzqh0slt2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1969995697224110514)  2025-09-22T05:22Z 17.2K followers, 94.4K engagements


"100%. You can ditch fiscal rules OBR and being in hock to the bond market if there is a path to value for money on additional borrowing (see HS2 Lower Thames Crossing public sector productivity PIP for why there is currently a credibility deficit). If you cant you cant. Weve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets says Andy Burnham in his big New Statesman interview. Yet the obvious answer - stop borrowing so much money - does not appear to be in his shadow manifesto which instead involves mass nationalisation. Weve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1970867029742919919)  2025-09-24T15:04Z 17.2K followers, 24.4K engagements


"@laurence_hulse Good. [--] years late"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1971275198537281796)  2025-09-25T18:06Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements


"Two months to go until the UK Budget and what is striking from recent conversations with businesses & investors is that the Treasury getting a grip on its impact on inflation is generally seen as more important than aggregate tax/ fiscal repair. The most damning (economic) chart of this government's tenure is how UK inflation has asymmetrically decoupled from global trends since last year's Election - and how that has been largely a result of the fiscal authority's choices rather than monetary policy. The Chancellor said the right things (regarding inflation) at the launch of the Budget on 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1971468525169484217)  2025-09-26T06:54Z 17.2K followers, 17.9K engagements


"A pretty sensible set of comments from the Chancellor in this interview on wealth taxes the role of the bond market and child poverty. The issue is (and has been) the fiscal decisions that have fuelled UK inflation. Rather less here on what practical (and politically tricky) measures will be taken in the Budget to avoid a repeat https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-interview-andy-burnham-fclm98q55 https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-interview-andy-burnham-fclm98q55"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1971863410183680260)  2025-09-27T09:04Z 17.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@_Steve_Griff If the US economy is an ugly donkey then large parts of the G20 are three-legged mules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1972561615905243267)  2025-09-29T07:18Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements


"The whole "will she/ wont she" on a VAT increase at the Budget is missing two central issues. Firstly and most saliently a flat increase in the VAT rate would be one of the most inflationary tax increases that could be levied. The 2010/11 experience (of taking VAT from 17.5% to 20%) saw UK CPI average 4.1% over the following [--] months. Not exactly the tax change you want to support real income growth. Secondly the argument for VAT reform is far more powerful than changing the marginal rate. Focus there would mark the Chancellor out as a tax reformist and could raise valuable revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1972647357574435271)  2025-09-29T12:59Z 17.2K followers, [----] engagements


"This is [--] years in the making with pension regulation & corporate governance asymmetry (public vs private) to the fore. This government and the last one have done credible supply side reforms to listing rules but flow-driven valuations for UK public equity remain lower than comparable sources of capital. Until that is addressed issuance volumes will remain subdued. The pace with which London is losing its status as a global financial markets hub has been laid bare after the capital fell to as low as 23rd in a global ranking of IPO destinations. Just 184m was raised on the London Stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1973310510499078575)  2025-10-01T08:54Z 17.2K followers, 31K engagements


"Better late than never. Opinion: Stablecoins could form a major part of the shift in the financial system away from reliance on commercial banks for lending governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey said in an article for the Financial Times https://t.co/kUF8N6KBl9 https://t.co/zJALFySz0W Opinion: Stablecoins could form a major part of the shift in the financial system away from reliance on commercial banks for lending governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey said in an article for the Financial Times https://t.co/kUF8N6KBl9 https://t.co/zJALFySz0W"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1973469161310544206)  2025-10-01T19:24Z 17.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@MarkDampier To a point. Most of us had discarded the savings ratio data a long time ago and looked at the cash holdings monthly data from the BoE. That still shows 100bn excess balances vs pre-2020 levels after accounting for inflation - but that is lower than the savings rate was implying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1975071900243243205)  2025-10-06T05:33Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements


"@DrKevorkO You do realise that tax as a % of GDP is at a [--] year high I assume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1975946934654583040)  2025-10-08T15:30Z 17.2K followers, [--] engagements


"A UK productivity downgrade (which I have my doubts on the wisdom of) was a trend that clearly began in [----]. Yes Brexit had a role by making the UK less competitive but energy policy post-GFC FS regulation housing policy pension policy & the legacy of 30Y of low PSNI would each get equal billing if there was an objective assessment. Most economists would defend this government in November if they claimed (rightly) that the latest productivity downgrade is not their fault. Fewer would do so if the defence focused only on Brexit. Exclusive: * Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves plan to blame"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1977278992127295859)  2025-10-12T07:43Z 17.3K followers, 34.3K engagements


"Clear-sighted @TimesBusiness column from @PJTheEconomist - debt interest at 3.2% of GDP is rising outside of a crisis. Almost unique for this to happen over the last [--] years. More worrying is the interest rate on this debt has moved out of benchmark range with comparable G7 economies. Political problem is that much of additional spending which requires that record tax take which we do feel has no obvious benefit to most of us. Debt interest spending most obviously. And most dont feel benefit from defence spending or eg disability benefits and social care. Political problem is that much of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1977650140895744317)  2025-10-13T08:18Z 17.3K followers, 11.7K engagements


"@John_Stepek The master. MASTER. of the understatement 👏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1978051169801957842)  2025-10-14T10:52Z 17.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Expect this line to rise sharply again between now and next April if the speculation proves accurate (and arguably even if it doesn't) Hurrah It is absolutely nuts that older richer people (like me) can save [-----] a year tax free - which means taxes are higher for younger poorer people. Rachel Reeves revives plans to overhaul cash Isas https://t.co/qu7eng5M6p via @ft Hurrah It is absolutely nuts that older richer people (like me) can save [-----] a year tax free - which means taxes are higher for younger poorer people. Rachel Reeves revives plans to overhaul cash Isas https://t.co/qu7eng5M6p"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1978474518566830434)  2025-10-15T14:54Z 17.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@HPanmureGordon Dividend Tracker: "A portfolio for more volatile markets" #dividends #equities @truemagic68 http://t.co/n8eaWaBFjV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/591501660947550208)  2015-04-24T07:19Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Overall lending growth @ 4.0% YoY in Oct - ahead of GDP growth but well down on pre-GFC levels. Mortgage mkt subdued (3.3bn of new lending)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/803535493895954432)  2016-11-29T09:46Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Decent UK labour market data amid little sign of CPI expectations translating to wages (+2.6%). GBP impact on EU employment emerging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/831801084171649024)  2017-02-15T09:43Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Increasing signs of a looming sharp contraction in UK unsecured lending in latest @bankofengland credit conditions survey #credit #borrowing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/852441363371229184)  2017-04-13T08:40Z 13.8K followers, [--] engagements


"My recent @OfficialTipTV interview of Vitaly Nesis CEO of 4.4bn #gold & #silver #mining firm $POLY @kieronjhodgson http://www.panmure.com/news-views/meet-the-ceo-vitaly-nesis-polymetal http://www.panmure.com/news-views/meet-the-ceo-vitaly-nesis-polymetal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/865472141109510146)  2017-05-19T07:40Z 13.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Second General Election/ Boris comeback odds shortening. I know a couple of wise old heads who had the first of these bets going into today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/872926447983308800)  2017-06-08T21:20Z 16.8K followers, [--] engagements


"UK CPI (0930BST) approaching near term peak. Import cost inflation peaked in Jan at 12%; base effects of currency & commodities now fading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/887207540630618112)  2017-07-18T07:08Z 13.8K followers, [--] engagements


"US Consumer Confidence at 17-year high but has been a reliable precursor to a recession at these levels: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/925376520029376513)  2017-10-31T14:58Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"@jjpjolly You are spot on. From launching concept to mass participation feels like a huge leap for INS - but existing mass networks taking principal of disintermediation and going after grocers. Now there is a deflationary force"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/925755243337584641)  2017-11-01T16:03Z 16.8K followers, [--] engagements


"@PhelanHill I'd rather eat my own spleen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/935182548493271042)  2017-11-27T16:24Z 16.8K followers, [--] engagements


"(1/2) UK consumer confidence @GfK moves lower in December (-13) with the gap to #Eurozone confidence at its highest level since mid-2011. http://www.gfk.com/en-gb/insights/press-release/uk-consumer-confidence-drops-one-point-in-december-to-13/ http://www.gfk.com/en-gb/insights/press-release/uk-consumer-confidence-drops-one-point-in-december-to-13/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/943745431787458561)  2017-12-21T07:30Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"First #MiFIDII note published. Like first day at school all over again Covers the sustainability of UK #dividends with the equity market still just 1.7x covered despite strong recent EPS growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/948480197271093249)  2018-01-03T09:04Z 14K followers, [--] engagements


"Further signs that recent attempts by the @bankofengland to slow unsecured lending growth (interest rate 🔼signalling 🔼countercyclical buffer underwriting review) are beginning to impact. Increase in unsecured debt over last [--] months lowest since end-2015. YoY growth at 9.1%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/948865608279560192)  2018-01-04T10:36Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"@jjpjolly Actually a damn good read once you get past the first few paras. but the opening salvo suggests a lack of sleep"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/951462825628786689)  2018-01-11T14:36Z 16.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Days like today the fundamentals get overlooked but @the_brc retail sales show like for likes up 0.6% YoY in January. A striking break-up between fast-growing food sales (+4.1% YoY) and very soft non-food sales (-0.9% YoY) #Retail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/960781334217097216)  2018-02-06T07:44Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"UK fiscal surplus of 10bn in January [----]. Below [----] level but will have to wait till next month for full picture on self-assessed receipts. Government on track to undershoot OBR deficit forecast by approximately 10bn in FY 17/18 #tax #publicspending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/966246513797103616)  2018-02-21T09:41Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Soft data in the @RICSnews February housing survey. The first measure of UK housing sentiment following the BoE's hawkish inflation report. New buyer interest & new instructions both lower. Stamp Duty boost in November being faded by expectations of higher interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/971665785373581312)  2018-03-08T08:35Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Very difficult balancing act for #draghi #ecb at lunchtime. Headline #eurozone inflation to remain muted into H2 [----] when markets will seek bond purchase guidance. ECB may be tempted to point to stirring core prices but will be reluctant to trigger higher euro #rockandhardplace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/971671852883079168)  2018-03-08T08:59Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Upgrade in US #gdp growth earlier today to +2.6% YoY (+2.9% annualised) in Q4 firms up the conclusion that the US & EZ growth decoupled* from the UK during [----] *barring a significant reassessment from @ONS tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/979004265141297152)  2018-03-28T14:36Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"UK savings ratio at just 5.3% (1.7 st. dev. below 50Y average) means little margin for households to absorb second round squeeze on disposable income from increases to pension contributions council tax & mortgage rates as well as working age benefit freeze - all set to hit in Q2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/979278214366449664)  2018-03-29T08:44Z 17.1K followers, [--] engagements


"@Grahamhiscott You are right. Hidden away in the Q4 GDP release: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/quarterlysectoraccounts/octobertodecember2017 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/quarterlysectoraccounts/octobertodecember2017"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/979284261802037248)  2018-03-29T09:08Z 17.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Welcome to see GBPUSD back above [----] but there is a striking divergence between GBPUSD and the wider Sterling Index. Strength is no real indication of UK factors - very much a dollar story. GBPUSD would be trading at [----] had it matched the wider currency basket #gbp #USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/984738611772915712)  2018-04-13T10:22Z 13.8K followers, [--] engagements


"UK consumer confidence marginally softer in April but in line with 20Y av. Soft consumer confidence explanations from retailers not matched in data. Lack of pricing power & channel shift more relevant. Personal financial situation deterioration indicative of FY18 policy squeeze"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/989748523074637825)  2018-04-27T06:10Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"US PCE inflation in March returns to 2.0% YoY; core prices growing at 1.9% YoY - both the highest since Q1 [----]. Big test is in the April and May data where permanence or otherwise of [----] deflation in drugs & cellphone prices is tested"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/990934017406095361)  2018-04-30T12:40Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Should a rate hike be too difficult for the Bank of England to stomach this week then a rule-based form of quantitative tightening should be considered as an alternative. More here in @TimesBusiness #gbp #ukeconomy https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/if-a-rate-rise-is-off-limits-theres-another-trick-that-the-bank-can-play-m6wljq9hd https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/if-a-rate-rise-is-off-limits-theres-another-trick-that-the-bank-can-play-m6wljq9hd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/993777666892460034)  2018-05-08T09:00Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"BRC retail sales (-4.2% in April) are proving highly volatile due to Easter/ weather impacts. However on a rolling 6-month basis April saw the first like-for-like decline since Sept [----]. Weakness in non-food sales at a level not seen since 2009"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/994103712506351617)  2018-05-09T06:36Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements

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