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# ![@FloridaTropics1 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::169501705.png) @FloridaTropics1 Florida Tropics

Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica, with forecast models showing a westward shift in its track. The storm is expected to become a strong hurricane, with some models indicating it could reach Category X strength. Jamaica has been issued with warnings, and residents are advised to be prepared to evacuate if ordered to do so.

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### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::169501705/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Tornado Warning for portions of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1979876342461350081) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-19T11:44Z 32K followers, 6142 engagements


"18z ICON has #98L off the coast of Haiti in X days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980386472147689640) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-20T21:31Z 32K followers, 6487 engagements


"First track from NHC for #Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980647945692426637) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-21T14:50Z 32K followers, 11.1K engagements


"18z Google Deep Mind ensembles still tightly clustered between eastern Cuba and Haiti. Many go right over Jamaica as a strong hurricane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980804425292841377) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T01:12Z 32K followers, 10.2K engagements


"@reakin_rl9 Yes its all in on a strong storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980806357617136095) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T01:20Z 32K followers, XXX engagements


"@JimCantore Good morning Jim. Thanks for the update Watching closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980939102905106874) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T10:07Z 32K followers, 2365 engagements


"0z Canadian shows Melissa getting far enough west to scrape Honduras before starting the turn northeast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980963741542809682) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T11:45Z 32K followers, 7354 engagements


"The GFS is so bad with Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981032703320260896) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T16:19Z 32K followers, 14.5K engagements


"12z Canadian shows Melissa nearing Cuba one week from today. Outer bands are impacting the Florida Keys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981039690372337981) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T16:47Z 32K followers, 15.5K engagements


"@thebooge82 You shouldn't trust an outlier model regardless of what it is (like the GFS being so far east)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981350631156662377) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T13:22Z 32K followers, XXX engagements


"0z spaghetti models for Melissa. Google Deep Mind and HCCA consensus aid on the western side of the envelope. Would expect NHC track to adjust accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981527701048455525) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T01:06Z 32K followers, 9021 engagements


"18z Euro ensembles through the next X days. The members that were very far south at 12z have come back north"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981535265777729583) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T01:36Z 32K followers, 8562 engagements


"Sadly the death toll from Melissa has already risen to three as two people were killed in Haiti yesterday as a result of a landslide south of Port-au-Prince. An elderly man was killed on Wednesday when a tree was felled during the storm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981756736265482577) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T16:16Z 32K followers, 6581 engagements


"18z Euro continues to show a direct landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981877140539793908) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T00:15Z 32K followers, 4363 engagements


"The 6z spaghetti models for Melissa. More models showing the system tracking to the west now south of Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980933821479743814) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T09:46Z 32K followers, 9773 engagements


"Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for portions of Haiti"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981415825819992353) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T17:42Z 32K followers, 6001 engagements


"That's a whole lot of pink (115+ mph) on the 12z Google Deep Mind ensembles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981431080553971731) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T18:42Z 32K followers, 16.4K engagements


"12z Canadian continues to bring Melissa farther west avoiding landfall on Jamaica. Intense impacts would still be felt on the island"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981757476002247001) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T16:19Z 32K followers, 5746 engagements


"6z hurricane models showing landfall in central Jamaica (HAFS-A HAFS-B) or western Jamaica (HMON) between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. HWRF has no official landfall but passes just to the west on Monday afternoon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1982049371840536694) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T11:39Z 32K followers, 5643 engagements


"Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Anguilla St. Barthelemy St. Martin and Sint Maarten. #Jerry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1976344572239413641) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-09T17:50Z 32K followers, 5710 engagements


"18z GFS and Google Deep Mind ensembles. Still a wide variety of options. Could be Puerto Rico Hispaniola Cuba (and the obligatory one member into Miami). Keep watching"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1978995726454587739) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-17T01:25Z 32K followers, 8788 engagements


"Good morning and happy Friday The overnight Google Deep Mind ensembles very much like the idea of a quick turn over the Dominican Republic. GFS ensembles also showing the turn although not as concentrated. Euro ensembles not interested at this point. All season once Google latches onto an idea it usually plays out. We'll see if that happens again this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1979151123949727856) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-17T11:42Z 32K followers, 16K engagements


"Meanwhile the 12z ICON and 12z Canadian get #98L much further west within a week's time. ICON is south of Jamaica while the Canadian has landfall into Honduras"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1979948617126367658) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-19T16:31Z 32K followers, 6319 engagements


"18z GFS. Might as well be a carbon copy of today's earlier runs. Brings #98L right to the Dominican Republic in X days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980033397784297906) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-19T22:08Z 32K followers, 8711 engagements


"Hot off the press are the 0z spaghetti models. Many now have #98L making a hard right. Interesting to see the consensus model make the turn north then go back west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980078372609753497) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-20T01:07Z 32K followers, 13.3K engagements


"12z Euro one week from today is south of Jamaica with #98L"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980334664800956469) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-20T18:05Z 32K followers, 9854 engagements


"12z Google Deep Mind ensembles through next Wednesday afternoon. Look at all the pink showing up (100 knots)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980710912429379957) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-21T19:00Z 32K followers, 56.5K engagements


"18z GFS is going even further east now towards the Dominican Republic. Seems very unlikely at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980756790150156585) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-21T22:03Z 32K followers, 8538 engagements


"0z spaghetti models have just come out. The HCCA consensus aid came way west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980800155570823227) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T00:55Z 32K followers, 15.3K engagements


"The 0z hurricane models have gotten even stronger with Melissa as the more westward track is solidified. Both HAFS models show a Category 5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980937462999347263) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T10:01Z 32K followers, 26.8K engagements


"12z spaghetti models for Melissa. GFS continues to be lost. HCCA consensus aid is back to being way west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980997915066946039) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T14:01Z 32K followers, 9170 engagements


"12z Google Deep Mind ensembles. Most members have finally moved away from Hispaniola. Moving landfall westward towards central Cuba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981068878332743862) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T18:43Z 32K followers, 8159 engagements


"18z Euro ensembles through XXX hours (end of run)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981173856288026927) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T01:40Z 32K followers, 13.1K engagements


"The 6z spaghetti models for Melissa. Storm has a closer approach to Jamaica on most models this cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981282947920478698) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T08:53Z 32K followers, 7205 engagements


"6z hurricane models for Melissa next Tuesday morning. HAFS-A and HAFS-B have an intense storm south of Jamaica while HMON is between Cuba and Haiti and HWRF is over eastern Cuba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981338576924398019) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T12:35Z 32K followers, 4963 engagements


"The 12z Canadian continues to be the farthest west with Melissa. It would bring significant impacts to Jamaica Cayman Islands and Cuba while also bringing outer bands to the Keys and SE Florida"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981397441896173928) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T16:28Z 32K followers, 7340 engagements


"12z Euro ensembles. Jamaica is in there somewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981454400339009789) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T20:15Z 32K followers, 9475 engagements


"Here's the view showing the northeast and Canada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981520414380585062) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T00:37Z 32K followers, 5549 engagements


"@GenshinGuy31 There is also the possibility of no landfall shown by the HWRF/HMON and the HCCA consensus aid. They have Melissa passing to the west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981714249849143502) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T13:27Z 32K followers, XXX engagements


"@njparkway26 It was THE WORST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981825806226927953) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T20:51Z 32K followers, XXX engagements


"18z Euro run just finished. Melissa barely moves for X days between Jamaica and Haiti"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1980783244301017591) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-21T23:48Z 32K followers, 9157 engagements


"12z Euro has landfall on the western end of Jamaica next Wednesday morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981069427610141085) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T18:45Z 32K followers, 9245 engagements


"18z Euro has Melissa sitting over Jamaica at the end of the run (next Tuesday afternoon)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981145209162650107) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-22T23:46Z 32K followers, 8645 engagements


"0z hurricane models show Melissa as a very intense storm. HAFS-A and HAFS-B show a Category X storm. HWRF and HMON traded places with HMON now getting close to Haiti and HWRF going over Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981301071973675116) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T10:06Z 32K followers, 6462 engagements


"0z Euro with a devastating landfall on Jamaica next Tuesday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981326747565019421) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T11:48Z 32K followers, 6546 engagements


"The NHC is now forecasting Melissa to reach XXX MPH in four days an extremely dangerous Category X hurricane and maintain that strength for XX hours as it passes close to Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981467276369920427) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T21:06Z 32K followers, 7919 engagements


"Airports in Jamaica to close within XX hours of a hurricane warning being issued. The time to leave the island is now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981468532006424698) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T21:11Z 32K followers, 18K engagements


"GFS what the hell are you doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981476218592452647) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T21:41Z 32K followers, 12.3K engagements


"The Euro is locked in on a Jamaica landfall. 18z has Melissa making landfall early Tuesday on the island. Impacts start XX hours earlier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981509652010397932) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T23:54Z 32K followers, 8924 engagements


"The 18z Google Deep Mind ensemble has shifted pretty significantly north and west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981519927703150715) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T00:35Z 32K followers, 18.5K engagements


"The X AM forecast track from NHC. A southward shift away from Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981663594724118901) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T10:06Z 32K followers, 13.5K engagements


"0z Euro and Google Deep Mind ensembles for Melissa. Showing that west turn earlier now on many members"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981685880688644181) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T11:35Z 32K followers, 12.2K engagements


"0z Canadian is still on the western edge of guidance with Melissa passing west of Jamaica impacting the Cayman Islands and crossing Cuba into the central and northern Bahamas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981687119056630245) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T11:40Z 32K followers, 5487 engagements


"6z Google Deep Mind ensembles. It appears the west shift at 18z was a blip as the 0z and now 6z have come back east to focus on Jamaica and eastern Cuba followed by the southern Bahamas. Lots to watch still as Melissa remains disorganized and prone to erratic movements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981703394260918302) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T12:44Z 32K followers, 6822 engagements


"12z spaghetti models - GFS has finally figured out that Melissa isn't going to Haiti. 🤦♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981708937285251338) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T13:06Z 32K followers, 15.2K engagements


"6z hurricane models showing different tracks for Melissa but all end up bringing Jamaica serious impacts. HWRF and HMON pass west of the island and don't make landfall. HAFS-A landfalls on the west end while HAFS-B is towards the east end of Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981709908702798112) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T13:10Z 32K followers, 8099 engagements


"JUST IN: Recon has found that Melissa now has winds of XX MPH and pressure is down to 999mb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981761030863630638) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T16:33Z 32K followers, 18.7K engagements


"**Apologies posted an old image of the Google Deep Mind ensembles earlier. Here is the correct 12z run.** 12z Google Deep Mind ensembles largely locked in with a track over Jamaica and eastern Cuba then into the southern Bahamas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981802259483599089) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T19:17Z 32K followers, 7469 engagements


"Prayers for the people of Jamaica. Please be ready to leave if ordered to do so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981803458182394199) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T19:22Z 32K followers, 23.9K engagements


"Pretty ominous wording from the NHC X PM discussion: "The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The forecast now shows a XXX kt peak in XX h and there is a distinct possibility that Melissa could become a Category X hurricane during this time period. In fact the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty intensity.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981828395575943247) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T21:01Z 32K followers, 20.7K engagements


"18z GFS through XX hours remains on the eastern envelope of guidance with Melissa between Jamaica and Haiti"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981842807061917711) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T21:58Z 32K followers, 4346 engagements


"Brand new 18z HAFS-A with a Category X Melissa making landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981870471688966371) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T23:48Z 32K followers, 14.4K engagements


"18z hurricane models continue to have big differences in timing for Melissa. HMON and HWRF show landfall in eastern Jamaica on Sunday while HAFS-A and HAFS-B show landfall delayed until Tuesday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981870984400613650) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T23:50Z 32K followers, 5685 engagements


"18z Euro AIFS is farther west with Melissa. I think this is the lowest pressure I've ever seen on the AIFS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981878394166902787) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T00:20Z 32K followers, 13.9K engagements


"NEW: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica. All preparations should be rushed to completion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981917876328992959) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T02:56Z 32K followers, 4535 engagements


"They will be. Watches are not issued until within XX hours of potential impacts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1982052251381227948) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T11:50Z 32K followers, 7281 engagements


"NEW: Naval Station Guantanamo Bay in the path of Melissa in Cuba is evacuating non-mission-essential U.S. citizens off the island as early as Saturday afternoon and no later than Sunday morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1982061871348719755) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T12:29Z 32K followers, 3497 engagements


"6z Euro still going with a direct landfall on Jamaica next week with Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981689648637497430) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T11:50Z 32K followers, 6667 engagements


"Looks like we have a new flood of record at Barnegat Bay at Waretown along the Jersey Shore. Water continues to rise at this location"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1977806869818392782) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-13T18:41Z 32K followers, 6117 engagements


"12z spaghetti models for Melissa. GFS is moving west painfully slow to join everyone else. HCCA consensus aid still further west than most"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981348205070782875) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-23T13:13Z 32K followers, 5734 engagements


"12z GFS just parks Melissa over eastern Jamaica for XX hours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981752348759212389) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T15:59Z 32K followers, 9550 engagements


"12z hurricane models continue to show Melissa as an extremely dangerous Category X hurricane either making landfall on or scraping Jamaica early next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981785613608399344) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T18:11Z 32K followers, 6437 engagements


"12z Euro ensembles through next Wednesday morning. Still some big differences in forward speed but the track over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is favored"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1981820814921232535) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-24T20:31Z 32K followers, 4290 engagements


"12z spaghetti models for Melissa have eastern Jamaica as the landfall location"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1982068256971112773) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T12:54Z 32K followers, 8034 engagements


"18z spaghetti models for Melissa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1982168461196317081) [@FloridaTropics1](/creator/x/FloridaTropics1) 2025-10-25T19:32Z 32K followers, 2417 engagements