#  @FishtownCap Fishtown Capital Fishtown Capital posts on X about $aer, debt, $al, $hrb the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::65545420/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] -0.39% - [--] Month [-------] +231% - [--] Months [-------] -22% - [--] Year [---------] +47% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::65545420/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -10% - [--] Month [---] +54% - [--] Months [---] +22% - [--] Year [---] +51% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::65545420/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.79% - [--] Month [-----] +2.90% - [--] Months [-----] +11% - [--] Year [-----] +43% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::65545420/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [$aer](/topic/$aer) #6, [debt](/topic/debt), [$al](/topic/$al), [$hrb](/topic/$hrb) #13, [money](/topic/money), [$et](/topic/$et) #14, [insurance](/topic/insurance), [stocks](/topic/stocks) #1870, [$t](/topic/$t), [$dac](/topic/$dac) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@madisonlackey44](/creator/undefined) [@siyul](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) [@christankerfund](/creator/undefined) [@andrewcoye](/creator/undefined) [@shafrontom](/creator/undefined) [@sjoldvalueguy](/creator/undefined) [@revcap](/creator/undefined) [@basedstatistic](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@marketswithmay](/creator/undefined) [@suicide95518428](/creator/undefined) [@valuesci](/creator/undefined) [@crowdturtle](/creator/undefined) [@saynototrading](/creator/undefined) [@ryenotberben](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)](/topic/$aer) [ArchLoot (AL)](/topic/$al) [H&R Block, Inc. (HRB)](/topic/$hrb) [Energy Transfer, LP. (ET)](/topic/$et) [AT&T Inc. (T)](/topic/$t) [Danaos Corporation (DAC)](/topic/$dac) [Centene Corp (CNC)](/topic/$cnc) [Cigna Corp (CI)](/topic/$ci) [UGI Corporation (UGI)](/topic/$ugi) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Partisia Blockchain (MPC)](/topic/$mpc) [ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)](/topic/$oke) [Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)](/topic/$cve) [Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)](/topic/$khc) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC Class A Common Stock (FTAI)](/topic/$ftai) [Elevance Health Inc (ELV)](/topic/$elv) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [Alliance Fan Token (ALL)](/topic/$all) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD)](/topic/$epd) [MPLX LP (MPLX)](/topic/mplx) [Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI)](/topic/$unfi) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)](/topic/$vz) [Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)](/topic/$kmi) [Progressive Corp (PGR)](/topic/$pgr) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) [Williams Companies Inc (WMB)](/topic/$wmb) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Diageo plc (DEO)](/topic/$deo) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Metaplex (MPLX)](/topic/$mplx) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@SimonRMerton @notabigdeal111 @cecbikes @scot_work @Tesla @elonmusk Theyre both Bagholder slang baggie. I figured youd be familiar" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1119495601593438209) 2019-04-20T06:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My favorite type of $TSLA bagholder the one that says "what have you done with your life" to defend their hero Elon from behind an anonymous account. So sad pathetic and cowardly. Sorry for your losses this month buddy More to come $TSLAQ" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1122299748155895808) 2019-04-28T00:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@glenntongue @ErikSdalen Glenn it was 58% before the latest cuts https://leasehackr.com/blog/2019/5/3/breaking-down-teslas-new-399month-model-3-lease-in-depth-analysisformat=amp https://leasehackr.com/blog/2019/5/3/breaking-down-teslas-new-399month-model-3-lease-in-depth-analysisformat=amp" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1153425877990068227) 2019-07-22T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ARaj_Energy @JavierBlas 15-20bbl now and getting worse. It should rebound in 2H but I dont think back to previous levels. Thats why Im so bearish. The Saudi thing is noise here" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1242778269113626624) 2020-03-25T11:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DaSyndicator @MadThunderdome Bought $NOK at $4.80 and sold the weekly $5 call for [--] cents. If it gets called away and I make 11% in [--] days cool. Unlike GMEBB etc. that have doubled/tripled in weeks NOK traded between $4-5 most of the year" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1354163902481895425) 2021-01-26T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DaSyndicator @MadThunderdome Better stocks out there to Yolo. NOK too big and lots of long time holders would cash out at $6-7. I'll take 11% in [--] days" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1354167803520147456) 2021-01-26T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@jablamsky @j_aja4 It's already trading at 40x revenue and revenue will be flat/down next year. What's the play here" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1364965141700345859) 2021-02-25T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@j_aja4 @jablamsky For those people Zoom makes nothing. Not a positive for $ZM stock. We use Teams for most meetings now. Integrates nicely with Outlook. If you were paying for a big company would you pay for Zoom or use Teams free" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1365002041173622788) 2021-02-25T18:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@siyul @restrinct @Keubiko @SmallCapKing2 @GrantTh70973333 FYI went long a small-ish position at $55.90. I think this is back to $60 in short order and $EBAY themselves repurchases shares should be supportive" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1387859203709149192) 2021-04-29T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$TDS Telephone and Data Systems going to see a large sell tomorrow. Shares are up 35% since the December lows rallying with the rest of the beaten down stuff. Will be interesting to see who's buying and what happens tomorrow. $SDY will be selling a 10% stake in $TDS 9% stake in $EMBC and 6% stake in $MSEX. It's the largest holder of TDS & EMBC and the second largest holder of MSEX. The trades will all happen on 1/31 and will account for a significant % of each stock's average daily trading volume https://t.co/VSWytUkhpq $SDY will be selling a 10% stake in $TDS 9% stake in $EMBC and 6% stake" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1620082142037561346) 2023-01-30T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Hedgeye_RJM @Hedgeye_Staples $BUD is still up 50% in [--] months and at 20x earnings. Negative comps could hurt it. BL drinks switching to Miller and Coors products too. I bet this accelerates next week. Siphoning off even a moderate # of BL drinks would be a big increase in case volume for $TAP" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1648688858295312387) 2023-04-19T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Mr_Derivatives Yeah getting political and alienating a large portion of your customer base will do that. Their net income is down 33% from [--] years ago net debt has tripled share count is higher but the stock is still up since then. $DIS is not cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1673317298499715075) 2023-06-26T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So why not $VCLT here (Vanguard IG Corporate ETF) Less volatile core CPI will need to replace: 0.3% July 0.6% August 0.6% September 0.3% October With slowing shelter I expect m/m core CPI to be between 0%-0.2% in the coming months which means that y/y core CPI should be between 3%-4% by October. FED should continue to Less volatile core CPI will need to replace: 0.3% July 0.6% August 0.6% September 0.3% October With slowing shelter I expect m/m core CPI to be between 0%-0.2% in the coming months which means that y/y core CPI should be between 3%-4% by October. FED should continue to" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1679150032975548418) 2023-07-12T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@valuations_ @scroogecapital @DummyCapital @MichealTrope @hackcelerity Whens the last time Berkshire sold anything for a profit They only seem to ever sell losers. Should have sold $KO decades ago and theyll probably ride $AAPL down to $120. Frustrating as heck as a shareholder that they never sell" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1718725619922379116) 2023-10-29T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@irbezek Why $HRL over something like $CAG that's at 10x earnings now (and an over 5% yield.)" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1757199000283869439) 2024-02-13T00:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ok I sold $BRK $BRKB here at $425 premarket. There was nothing bullish in that letter. Berkshires valuation is out of wack. [--]. BNSF is down mostly on labor issues and reading between the lines its not getting better. [--]. BHE hes also soured on. Liability from wildfires a huge deal as is the contract of fair profit being broken. [--]. Berkshire stopped repurchase around $350 in Q4. [--]. Pilot was massively overpaid for. [--]. Apple barely got a mention If you cant say something nice dont say anything at all. Its overvalued and even Warren thinks so. [--]. GEICO lost almost 10% of customers last year but" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1762104486879772954) 2024-02-26T13:17Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements "$DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and could be $400m+ in [----] just with the contracted $ today (revenue visibility should increase as the year goes on.) Not bad for $1.4B market cap with little debt" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1763621556029198448) 2024-03-01T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DAC Newbuilding Price index and why they picked up those options. If this just flatlines from here should keep a lid on new supply until market gets back into a better balance. $DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and could be $400m+ in [----] just with the contracted $ today (revenue visibility should increase as the year goes on.) Not bad for $1.4B market cap with little https://t.co/w1vOdOn6Pe $DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1765710818639745308) 2024-03-07T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I need to call out my friend @natstewart5 this morning. He has been on absolute fire over the last few years. Nailed $NLOP early good calls on $GTX major win last year with $NRP. His Substack is absolutely worth subscribing to" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1771176250268107235) 2024-03-22T14:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@irbezek $DEO is a bad pick IMO when you have to constantly purchase brands started up by celebs for billions to stay relevant. But AI is not the issue" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1795884674356568565) 2024-05-29T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ok so pair trade idea long $TAP (8.5x EPS returning all earnings to shareholders) and short $BUD at 17x. Why not" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1802386916433617083) 2024-06-16T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The point of the pair trade is relative performance. If beer declines I think $BUD does a lot worse than $TAP. Under 10x even stagnant/slow declining business can be helped with buybacks. At 17x not as much. I have never bought into the $DEO bull case and its still pricey. Far earlier for celebs to launch niche liquor brands that beer. Look at Aviator Gin etc. $DEO cant just buy everyone forever and win that way" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1802389161225118034) 2024-06-16T17:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rociousSpelling @puppyeh1 @pembridge_cap @secretlyaninja @ShafronTom 80% of $AERs debt is due in [--] years. They don't give a number in the 10-K but it's about [--] years not [--]. Both debt schedules look very similar. Interest rate difference is 3.5% AER vs. 3.77% AL this year" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1806355075578699983) 2024-06-27T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MadisonLackey44 @NuggetCapital @taobanker @rajasark Youll see a lot less buybacks with a lot less FCF. I also like the MPLX ownership and cash flow stability from it. But you can also just buy MPLX" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1829126083263766598) 2024-08-29T11:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think energy is going to be tough into next year ($AMPY $DK) refining I'd particularly avoid. $ALTO would be up my alley but I don't trust them operationally. $DAC is tough here. I'm very leveraged to the upside or a buyout but don't see a near term catalyst. Probably prefer $NMM here since they're actively buying back and they're similar valuations. If $DAC restarts legitimate buybacks I'd be more bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1833838138306801779) 2024-09-11T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@orrdavid It's such a tough business. I've kicked the tires on $BMWYY a lot. Love the products they sell at luxury price points all aspects of a good business low multiple etc. But auto sucks in general and Germany seems hell bent on destroying itself. Not investable" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1834243580254171463) 2024-09-12T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ultraviolence_a @MadisonLackey44 I'd avoid anything HQ'd in Germany; the Germans seem hell bent on committing economic seppuku. $BMWYY also at multi year lows" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1836116197873479728) 2024-09-17T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@marketswithmay Very nice. I like this sector since valuations became more reasonable and I don't want to add to $ET just because of the tax complexities with selling portions of an MLP. That all said some of Rich's buys over the years have been ill timed. But at $13 this was a slam dunk" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1846920446362484886) 2024-10-17T14:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Funny thing is that if $AER announced it was going to fully wind down its portfolio and return all capital to shareholders like $NLOP it would probably jump 30%. But theyre partially doing this and returning all profits. $AER 👀👀 https://t.co/MjkUQGmpZH https://t.co/0d0O3hNxet $AER 👀👀 https://t.co/MjkUQGmpZH https://t.co/0d0O3hNxet" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1851632174266495146) 2024-10-30T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In the article one of the things I clear up is that HRB makes 7x the amount of revenue from in person tax help versus their digital DIY channels. This has always been a small part of their business. Ignoring that many of these IRS initiatives go away under Trump theres plenty of free/cheap IRS filing options including printing and mailing it. I use HRB tax software. You can file [--] different Fed returns for free for the $40 tax software (I file for myself and my Mom.) I think thats a pretty good value and its never been hard. The FTC and IRS are hard at work on non issues they think make good" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1855684517375467745) 2024-11-10T18:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ThinkFinance999 Ps same complaints about $INTU and tax software is a way larger portion of their business. Theyre at ATHs and a 35x multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1855685043009765756) 2024-11-10T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@crowdturtle $NLOP is a big miss for me this year. @natstewart5 alerted me early to it and I never pulled the trigger (I've had an overly bearish bias this year and it cost me) and I've read all @kingdomcapadv on it. I just don't understand the short thesis here" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1866835195032375370) 2024-12-11T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$BZH - coild double if rates drop if they stay here or get worse it could get ugly. $27 stock. $40 book value. Buy back as much as possible or go debt free right Nah lets just keep growing inventory. What could go wrong Beazer Homes is struggling to move inventory in Texas. - Mortgage rate buy downs - $15k to $20k towards closing costs - Price cuts - Additional significant discounts if you negotiate especially on spec homes. "This year we've had the opposite of the Santa Claus rally we saw https://t.co/DtWKZ50886 Beazer Homes is struggling to move inventory in Texas. - Mortgage rate buy downs" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1874078142660554986) 2024-12-31T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Positioning heading into 2025: 90% Long (in size order): $AER $ET $HRB $UGI $GOOGL $T $VZ $MPC $CSX $DAC $JPM Prefs 25% Short $SPY $AAPL $ARKK $WMB $WMT $COST Short basket (except SPY) are names that are WAY overextended and I think see profit taking early [----]. Failed Santa rally not bullish overall especially for these window dressing names. 35x+ for low-growth names is crazy IMO especially Apple" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1874210441666183300) 2024-12-31T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@aschmidt2930 Still like it just favor some other names over it and a little uncomfortable with fashion in general (I figure Im the dumb money there.) Added $MPC instead. Theres a lot of value I like now. Id like to be long $CI $SIRI $AL $PBI but Im already longer than my target" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1874239413129257165) 2024-12-31T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI Market figuring out there's a utility trading at 10x EPS even with [--] of its [--] divisions are doing well and the cold US winter will likely helping the underperforming division" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1879236278358847998) 2025-01-14T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Very nice $UGI writeup. Similar points to what I made a year ago. 42% return from my writeup and still looks cheap at 10x when every other NG util/midstream has 🚀( $KMI $WMB are doubles from a year ago) $PEG up 60% etc. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658062-ugi-corporation-my-top-rebound-pick-for-2024 UGI Corporation (Symbol: UGI). One Hour Analysis: Weak Performance at AmeriGas Division Obscures Strong Performance of Natural Gas Utility and Midstream Assets. by @Investing501 https://t.co/TNgQ5WWVRn https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658062-ugi-corporation-my-top-rebound-pick-for-2024 UGI" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1881796956697264234) 2025-01-21T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So if there are losers from a Deepseek efficiency breakthrough other than $NVDA $AMD it's probably the US NG complex especially $KMI and $WMB which are all of a sudden high multiple. $ET is my biggest position but far cheaper than the above names. $KMI The Data Center Demand slide https://t.co/NHvvjRv1uK $KMI The Data Center Demand slide https://t.co/NHvvjRv1uK" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1883876567925022852) 2025-01-27T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CI Surprised at the -11% reaction (its on tiny volume.) probably a buying opportunity if it stays here. $CI -10.9% Cigna's Q4 earnings fell well short of Wall Street's expectations as high healthcare costs hurt results in a segment of its insurance business: - Q4 adj. EPS of $6.64 $1.15 worse than the analyst estimate of $7.79; - Q4 Medical-loss ratio or the share of premiums $CI -10.9% Cigna's Q4 earnings fell well short of Wall Street's expectations as high healthcare costs hurt results in a segment of its insurance business: - Q4 adj. EPS of $6.64 $1.15 worse than the analyst estimate of" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1884928635762610227) 2025-01-30T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is the group that owned the direct e-tax file thing. The thing that no sane person would have ever used but caused $HRB to drop 10% at one point last year. That group has been deleted That group has been deleted" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1886500110621925714) 2025-02-03T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SowingAlphaSeed We're different than the UK with the EITC and other programs like that. E-file is fine and low income people can use existing software for it. $HRB's tax software costs like $30. I just thought this IRS thing was a mistake for most people" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1886504917554098356) 2025-02-03T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MPC Good earnings in a quarter with bad cracks. $MPLX distributions cover 100% of dividend+capital spending for [----]. $LB 268kbpd Houston refinery closing now. Grangemouth 140kbpd closes in Q2 $PSX LA 150kbpd by YE. Return to office getting teeth again. Q2/Q3 could be good. $MPC Marathon Petroleum Q4 [----] Earnings - Adj EPS $0.77 (est $0.06) - Rev $33.47B (est $32.30B) $MPC Marathon Petroleum Q4 [----] Earnings - Adj EPS $0.77 (est $0.06) - Rev $33.47B (est $32.30B)" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1886746405760344481) 2025-02-04T11:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1887550452687860146) 2025-02-06T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of data to quantify increase in lease rates. - Widebody recovery in [----] underreported https://seekingalpha.com/article/4755768-aercap-set-to-fly-higher-in-2025 $AER AerCap is an insane fat pitch. P/E of [--]. Forward P/E lower than [--]. Using all FCF to repurchase shares. Aircraft values hot and should remain so. Selling assets at 25%+ unlevered gain on sale. Strong leases signed in after [----] just now hitting P&L. CEO is one of the most" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1887615090394079485) 2025-02-06T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Second day in a row cracks flying and refiners underperforming $XLE badly. What's going on $MPC $PSX $VLO #oott $PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT $PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1887930443892183317) 2025-02-07T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ET Energy Transfer Good overview of the upcoming earnings likely with a strong guide for FY25; the cold winter and strong NG will be a +. Even after a great run still cheap on most metrics with lots of tailwinds. Could finish the week above $21. Earnings Preview - $ET will report 4Q24 earnings on February [--] at 4:30pm ET. Analysts forecast a top and bottom line of $21407mm and $0.37 in sales and EPS respectively. $ET engages in natural gas pipeline transportation and transmission services through its Intrastate & Earnings Preview - $ET will report 4Q24 earnings on February [--] at 4:30pm ET." [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889012352189923335) 2025-02-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DAC Danaos Quick Takeaways - $6.93 adj EPS (adjusted for $SBLK stake) - Repurchased 1.5% of shares in quarter (4% of float) - Plans to fund some of newbuilds with debt - $911m (97%) in contracted rev for [----] $781m (79%) for [----] If they keep repurchasing at this pace (they have the cash. plenty of it) shares move higher" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889098381324427640) 2025-02-10T23:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@MLPguy Prob just spin it and have $PSX keep a big chunk $MPC $MPLX style" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889167509619699970) 2025-02-11T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Goodnight Sweet Prince. $ET Energy Transfer" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889442638127940057) 2025-02-11T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@taobanker I think $deo is in trouble. It doesnt deserve a high teens P/E" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889453587882729761) 2025-02-11T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ET Energy Transfer Wrote up my latest thoughts. I dont hate the big CapEx budget and next years guide is pretty strong. Another takeaway recontracting existing assets doesnt seem like the headwind it once was. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4757252-energy-transfer-stock-capex-focuses-optimizing-existing-assets-no-new-debtv=1739362629#comment-99605250 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4757252-energy-transfer-stock-capex-focuses-optimizing-existing-assets-no-new-debtv=1739362629#comment-99605250" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889657431677866153) 2025-02-12T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AER AerCap incredibly strong. Is this just rotation from growth - value or is an imminent settlement with the insurance companies over lost aircraft in Russia leaking out Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of data to quantify increase in lease rates. - Widebody recovery in [----] underreported https://t.co/L4lFLBGHcm Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889702336991260879) 2025-02-12T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@olvehe $AL Air lease not part of the same case. As of their latest 10-Q AL reported that no trial date has been set for them. $AER trial is concluding now" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1889703645224055027) 2025-02-12T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ET Energy Transfer Still trades 8x DCF and an EV/EBITDA of [--]. 94% of the $5B FY25 budget is NG/NGL focused and is producing growth as recontracting existing assets at lower rates has been far less of a thing. $ET AI Deals Line Up for Energy Transfers Gas Supply Midstream company Energy Transfers executives say theyre working on more than [---] deals for gas-powered generation projects. (Hart) https://t.co/weY4v507Zz $ET AI Deals Line Up for Energy Transfers Gas Supply Midstream company Energy Transfers executives say theyre working on more than [---] deals for gas-powered generation projects." [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890016704383815896) 2025-02-13T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CVS 50% off the bottom quick at now a "hopefully" 11x forward multiple. $CI Cigna still down 20% from last year and at 9x about to sell its Medicare division for $3.7 billion and use the $ to fund buybacks (and using its regular earnings for buybacks.) Business historically traded at a mid-teens multiple. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1890057246412857845 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1890057246412857845" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890057246412857845) 2025-02-13T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@MadisonLackey44 Why should $CVS trade higher than $CI in any case Which litigation are we referring to" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890058727409271206) 2025-02-13T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AL Air Lease Guiding to self funding all the new aircraft deliveries for [--] and [--] from OCF and Aircraft Sales. $AL Air Lease Pre-tax margins turning higher. Gain on sale margin looks like 12.4% for the quarter if I'm mathing correctly https://t.co/uQ8fb7cqYP $AL Air Lease Pre-tax margins turning higher. Gain on sale margin looks like 12.4% for the quarter if I'm mathing correctly https://t.co/uQ8fb7cqYP" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890153096195486169) 2025-02-13T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne Allegheny was both small and recent so couldnt judge how value added it is. Its also nearly irrelevant when you look at all the money Berkshire has lit on fire over the past decade" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890231595455688965) 2025-02-14T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne Shifting goal posts. We're talking about Berkshire's investments not Berkshire's stock. Berkshire's stock has benefitted from retained earnings but also from a higher multiple. If Berkshire traded at the same P/BV or P/E of its OpCo's as it did in [----] it would be at $360 now" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890255298407039026) 2025-02-14T04:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$45b on a 1+ trillion market cap is a 4.5% earnings yield. Even adding look thru on the equity book its 5.5-6% and I think it goes in reverse next two years as insurance underwriting profits normalize. Its pricey. I get the positives. I owned it for 15+ years and write articles about it" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890378103446208992) 2025-02-14T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This I do buy into and like a lot but realize this is progressively harder to do the bigger the organization (alignment of incentives principal/agent problems are all way bigger problems in $JPM type organizations.) Fully agree on the higher performers liking this. I used to preach to my leadership team that removing a lower performer (that they always thought was "average") was often addition by subtraction" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890399263265337750) 2025-02-14T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne You're triple counting like lots of Berkshire longs like to do. If you want to count the cash and equities seperately you need to back out interest from the cash and dividends from the equities which is $13B of that $45B. They aren't earning 10% of the equity book either" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890510952014983639) 2025-02-14T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne and it's only this high because of record underwriting profits which are certain to normalize. No they aren't producing $45 billion in operating earnings from their businesses. It's $30 billion and that's with a huge boost from underwriting" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890511787721642250) 2025-02-14T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@heath_ochroch Airlines still ultra strong. Get long $aer in size nerd" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890586825674109240) 2025-02-15T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@siyul @heath_ochroch Theyre both winners. I think $aer has more near term catalysts. $al could be a better 2-3 year play" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890591236135715084) 2025-02-15T02:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@siyul @heath_ochroch $aer hasnt lagged. $al has" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890593605753913709) 2025-02-15T02:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JBierne The amount of cope here is weird. Berkshire has done nothing but buy into dogs recently like $siri and $oxy If Berkshire buying a related company is your thesis well good luck" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1890758433906753641) 2025-02-15T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RockFlowGoLow @LeverageValueP $KO been surprisingly strong. $HSY and $PEP on my watchlist but neither are exciting especially if the healthier eating thing sticks" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891141400244138450) 2025-02-16T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Government waste: personal anecdote and why Im hopeful for @DOGE Used to design Medical Imaging equipment. Imaging devices send images to whats called a PACS system; like an EMR for images (CT MR x-ray.) PACS market is diverse most major device makers (GE Siemens Fuji etc) make one. The VA decided to make their own called VISTA. Just the VA; the other branches all buy their own from all different vendors. If there was ever a product for the entire DoD to align on one vendor push for a great price and have them all communicate its this. But thats not the waste part. The VA forces every medical" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891191751186252200) 2025-02-16T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2 year lag of new aircraft placement/leases. I dont think thats the case for many re-leases anymore. See $ALs comments about lease extensions being done at higher rates. Its no longer advantageous for airlines to extend leases in advance especially leases from [----] and [----] because of the way lease accounting works. I think were [--] quarters away from re-leases flipping from headwind to tailwind" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891497743576670486) 2025-02-17T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@puppyeh1 Damn I hadnt looked at the January data yet those are some big jumps. Im already very long $Aer but maybe not long enough" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891624412459225281) 2025-02-17T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@puppyeh1 Will be interesting to see gain on sale numbers. People selling $AER because it's "at book" but not realizing the math behind repurchases at high 20's gain on sale margins. Nice to see the A330 lease numbers $AER has a lot of them up for re-leasing next [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891627689032778122) 2025-02-17T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AER $AL Narrowbody values up low teens (75% of AER fleet) widebody up 40% (25% of fleet) in last [--] months. With 2.4x leverage it means $AERs real book value up over 50% in the last year @FishtownCap yep. these are narrowbody lease rates I think Ishka was talking about widebody values +45% in a year and lease rates around $500k (for the 777-300ER for eg).but I know for a fact a few extensions have been priced closer to $1mm/month. https://t.co/n3fd2rnjNn @FishtownCap yep. these are narrowbody lease rates I think Ishka was talking about widebody values +45% in a year and lease rates around" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1891647676275429757) 2025-02-18T00:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Feynman_19 @puppyeh1 Math. it gets you (seriously I did the exercise it's not intuitive.) Very eager to see the gain on sale numbers for Q4. These may be in the 30%'s in [----] wild" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1892033043218530504) 2025-02-19T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@InvestorTobacco @Jonas_Haraldson @joeriwestland @christankerfund Ok what has the US sent to Ukraine And how much has the EU spent If Zelenskyy is very popular why not hold elections" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1892252461835895030) 2025-02-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@RogueWayve @Jonas_Haraldson @joeriwestland @christankerfund Answer my above question name a conflict since WWII where US involvement made the world better" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1892271094624649429) 2025-02-19T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MattJRothschild @puppyeh1 Constant age is the standard industry way to understand how assets are holding their value" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1892404393170927878) 2025-02-20T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FIHL previous reserve balance was for half of this" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1892595350860349565) 2025-02-20T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$BRK What I expected *except GEICO* BNSF and OpCO's down YoY BHE meh (2023 had wildfires.) But GEICO is crushing it. Wasn't impressed last year because they cut ad spend and lost policies; Policies just *grew* in 2nd half Golden age for auto insurers What names do we like Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRKB Earnings thoughts: maybe Buffett is bearish because of his own business results but it turns out thats partially because theyve all been run worse since he bought them I have $11.4B in OpCo income (with a $1.6B FX tailwind) so $44B in earnings Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRKB Earnings thoughts:" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893291675700625490) 2025-02-22T13:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BRK Berkshire Hathaway. I've been critical of Todd Combs in the past. and he may not be a good person to work for. But the results at GEICO have been impressive with policy holders growing in 2nd half. @ohcapideas My opinion on him has improved. Results are results. I was critical last year with GEICO's results because the bottom line improvement came with 10%+ policies dropping and slashing ads. Anyone can do that. Well net income just doubled YoY and policies grew in the 2nd half. wow. @ohcapideas My opinion on him has improved. Results are results. I was critical last year with GEICO's" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893322898502242809) 2025-02-22T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After GEICO's FY24 let's talk home/auto insurers. $PGR pricey. $BRK pricey with worse businesses. Pass. $ALL Allstate 11x '25 EPS 9x '26 CEO touting 20%+ RoE's on new biz int. income+ float+ CA exposure OK. Why not I like low multiple steady stuff right now. $BRK What I expected *except GEICO* BNSF and OpCO's down YoY BHE meh (2023 had wildfires.) But GEICO is crushing it. Wasn't impressed last year because they cut ad spend and lost policies; Policies just *grew* in 2nd half Golden age for auto insurers What names do we like https://t.co/MGHIgAsJBT $BRK What I expected *except GEICO* BNSF" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893328389232050554) 2025-02-22T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SJOldValueGuy Different businesses short tail P&C/Auto versus longer tail life/annuity for $LNC and $PRU. $LNC almost went negative equity and blew up a few years ago. Different risk/reward levels here" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893331878037315905) 2025-02-22T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ElDawg360 I didn't mention anything about cash flow or CapEx. CapEx has run higher than D&A at BNSF forever that isn't new but not what I'm talking about. Earnings for all of Berkshire's businesses outside insurance are down from last year and [--] years ago. But Insurance is crushing it" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893395724311711966) 2025-02-22T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SameerKAgrawal I dont follow them but just looked at the chart heck of a breakout after almost a decade of consolidation" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893629577672474656) 2025-02-23T11:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@UnintendedCons5 @Amalteya3000 Weather has helped with heating oil and I expect more driving this Spring with additional return to office while a 268kbpd refinery in TX just closed. Im long $MPC" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893631967922429964) 2025-02-23T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DrDavidKass Everything major Berkshires bought since BNSF has been a disappointment if you really look it: Lubrizol $KHC PCC Pilot (Allegheny recent probably good but not enough time to measure.) Massive opportunity cost" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893634167977472342) 2025-02-23T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@teachemstoic @DougKass @fundstrat How does someone "making a lot of money buying treasury bonds in size."" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893693553651429436) 2025-02-23T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@andrewcoye Are we subtracting the taxes out of those In any case that number seems high to me" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893714330849280195) 2025-02-23T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@oraclealexx How did he do in the [----] and [----] bear markets This quip keeps getting repeated and isn't true and Berkshire is too big now to take advantage of dislocations like it did in the past" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893718387739471873) 2025-02-23T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@dcblocher Here's my money weighted return since I moved my accounts to Fidelity. Most of my picks have been on SeekingAlpha" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893724448856891756) 2025-02-23T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RAEckart Selling $AAPL smart in my opinion. But he's trapped in a lot of losers like $OXY and $KHC. Good luck with the market absorbing sales from those two" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893753942330232903) 2025-02-23T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ValuSeeker20 #1 $AAPL 35x #2 $AXP 20x (highest in a long time) #3 $BAC 12x #4 $KO 24x #5 $CVX 15x His top holdings aren't cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893755333857714435) 2025-02-23T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BondKingJanusH1 Almost forgot that one. Ironically $IBM is doing well now" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893758060394373246) 2025-02-23T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RAEckart Yeah timing not great on the sale. But if I owned it I would have probably sold there or before. I wouldn't have bagheld $OXY $KHC and the rest of these" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893781699462307998) 2025-02-23T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@oraclealexx @TheDeadbeatLeb1 @jbulltard1 Agreed with all of this. So why own Berkshire at these levels" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893800781184143443) 2025-02-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@oraclealexx @TheDeadbeatLeb1 @jbulltard1 Youre double counting the earnings from the $300B cash and dividends from the equities. Its $38B without those. And thats with historically high underwriting profitability that likely wont last. If insurance normalizes (and it will) its more like $33B for no growth" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1893828880844128659) 2025-02-24T01:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TraceyRyniec Yes too many trucks/truckers too much debt. Got it. Truck miles traveled has risen last [--] years. 331B in [----] 340B in [----] to 345B last year per the ATA. This has little to do with retail fuel margins. You're making up a narrative about Pilot that simply isn't true" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1894085274537185491) 2025-02-24T18:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AER AerCap Q4 Earnings Estimate and FY25 Guidance Unless I'm missing something glaring I think $AER Q4 smashes earnings. Q3 had a $140 million credit provision that won't repeat and Q3 had the yearly low in aircraft sales. Analyzing Q4's mix of sales comparing with Q1-Q3 along I have total sales at $1.1 billion at a 25% gain of sale for $260m +160m over Q3. Then there 1.5% less shares. Q4 Estimate: $4 ($3.25 GAAP) BEFORE any insurance recoveries which I estimate at $100 million. FY25 Guidance Sales market/gain on sale significantly stronger this year especially for widebodies. They'll also" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1894109425805529541) 2025-02-24T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is a thinly formed opinion I dont closely track these companies but theyre all deeply money losing. I know they point to certain metrics to show theyre doing great and the deep losses is because theyre growing but too often Ive seen companies like this reclassify expenses to dress up the metrics they want to show off and push the expenses somewhere else" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1894367893455847737) 2025-02-25T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AER AerCap WOW. Crushed sstimates 2.07B revenue $3.31 EPS ($3.56 GAAP) 43% () gain on sale margin. (Is this even real) on $869m of assets sold. 16% RoE 4th quarter $1 billion new repurchase auth https://www.aercap.com/_assets/_2519144123db59ab43d82eba6be9f609/aercap/db/539/13836/earnings_release/AerCap+2024+Fourth+Quarter+Earnings+Release.pdf https://www.aercap.com/_assets/_2519144123db59ab43d82eba6be9f609/aercap/db/539/13836/earnings_release/AerCap+2024+Fourth+Quarter+Earnings+Release.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1894721077852455242) 2025-02-26T12:08Z [----] followers, 25.3K engagements "@andrewstepner Who knows Trades positioned for the move and selling $AL did something similar opened up dropped finished on the high +6% had a good next two days" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1894800800456569258) 2025-02-26T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AER AerCap Earnings/20-F Takeaways Went through the 20-F in detail. Here's my takeaways: [--]. Basic Lease Rents May Jump $500m YoY. Top thing frustrating the bulls (IMO) is the lack of growth in basic lease rates. I think [----] fully turns the corner. Lease rents negatively impacted mostly by PBH rents and re-leases lower. But the trend from last year has really improved Q1: [----] Q2: [---] Q3: [---] Q4: +7 In [----] PBH leases as a % of the portfolio went from 5% to 2%. This tailwind should grow in [----] and could be a $350-400 million tailwind YoY. Add to that deliveries at higher lease rates and" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1895166430636560803) 2025-02-27T17:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@J_M_G_B_ I think the normal seasonal uptick alone could pop this back to the low $20's but it's been week after two days worth of news that usually would pop shares higher" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1901969589128282561) 2025-03-18T12:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As predicted Air Lease $AL recovered another $329m (totaling 424m) of their $791m losses. London trial pushing everyone to settle. I expect at least $5/share in recoveries for $AER in Q1. Should put book value right around the current price with lots of $ for repurchases. 🛫💵 Air Lease Recovers $328.5 Million in Russia Aircraft Insurance Payouts Total Now $424 Million Tickers of interest: $AL Full Story https://t.co/WhT3BPuTji https://t.co/NUnVDHYcXt 🛫💵 Air Lease Recovers $328.5 Million in Russia Aircraft Insurance Payouts Total Now $424 Million Tickers of interest: $AL Full Story" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1904189009137443074) 2025-03-24T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AER AerCap I really want to sell some of the April $110's against my position it looks like free money but wow is there a lot of open interest for Apr versus nearly none for May when they announce. Interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1907443762374066497) 2025-04-02T14:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MPC Market Cap=$39.5B $MPLX Market Cap=$52B MPC 64% of MPLX= $33.3B So $6B for MPC's refining assets with $20+ cracks and yet another refinery closing" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1912876161069154574) 2025-04-17T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AER AerCap Q1 EPS $3.48 / Adj $3.68 35% Gain on sale (2.3x book) BV $97.37 (1.07x BV) Didn't see the insurance recoveries I was hoping for. Very solid maybe even a little boring. Still very cheap (along with $AL) at 8x EPS selling assets 2.3x over book" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1917539919133655313) 2025-04-30T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@blondesnmoney Ok so I believe you they're at book. But by the same line of thinking $AER is 30% below book $AL is 50% below book I still can't understand why $WLFC over these two names" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1918338101404979262) 2025-05-02T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft. I tend to trade the same names almost like some type of twisted value market maker. I like $WLFC in the low 150s certainly at [---]. At first glance it may appear expensive at 2x Tangible Book and 9x earnings but that's because the earnings and book value need to be adjusted. https://t.co/AYhgaqy3T2 I tend to trade the same" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1918723626427109476) 2025-05-03T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AL Air Lease Looks very strong at initial glance Q1 Adj. EPS $1.51 Beats $0.94 Sales $738.28M Beat $710.23M Another $226.7 million in cash insurance recoveries Book Value above $70 will be $73ish after Q2. This should be $60/share $AL Air Lease I'm swapping some of my $AER exposure into $AL. AerCap back to pre-April [--] price $AL still 8% below. AerCap earnings this week should be good and $AL could benefit. AL reports next week and I think they announce a repurchase and stop pops into the mid $50's. $AL Air Lease I'm swapping some of my $AER exposure into $AL. AerCap back to pre-April [--] price" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1919489895296369022) 2025-05-05T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$WLFC -17% $AL +6% Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft. Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1919762107085561881) 2025-05-06T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute + Propane distribution. Reports tonight. AmeriGas issues will be resolved. Very Low valuation vs peers. Owns valuable midstream assets in PA. Ran after last earnings could run again. One of my biggest winners in [----]. Oh and $HRB prob beats too" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1920117971243978963) 2025-05-07T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI Beat and Raise. Adj. diluted EPS up 12% YoY (weather helped a bit.) Importantly showing stabilization/turnaround at AmeriGas. AmeriGas OpIncome $138 - $154m gallons sold increased [---] - [---]. Under 11x P/E for a utility and growing. Should re-rate back to $40+ easily. $UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute + Propane distribution. Reports tonight. AmeriGas issues will be resolved. Very Low valuation vs peers. Owns valuable midstream assets in PA. Ran after last earnings could run again. One of my biggest winners in [----]. Oh and $HRB prob beats too. https://t.co/n1htg7CsvM $UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute +" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1920217496298164249) 2025-05-07T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I don't have an insane one like that. $UGI and $ET are closed. $UGI is silly and will be a boring walk up to $45 in the next [--] months. Every other electric or natural gas ute is 19x it's 11x. It should go back to 15x easily. $ET could yield 16% if it stopped growth capex. That's also pretty crazy" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1920226738694426741) 2025-05-07T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UGI An investing lesson here: narrative vs. numbers. Investors freaked and dumped UGI down to 7x EPS because of AmeriGas problems ignoring that the other [--] divisions were doing well. New assets online new customers connected base rates increased. Looking at EPS numbers you barely notice the AmeriGas issues. [----] EPS Guide now $3-3.15 they'll beat and put up $3.20. Pre-Covid it traded at 20x. Post Covid/AmeriGas buyout (before problems surfaced) closer to 15x. Now it's still 10.5x despite turning the corner on AmeriGas and mild leverage issues. If it does 5% EPS growth (likely) and meanders" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1920248295936688131) 2025-05-07T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI Call Most bullish I've heard since being an owner - AmeriGas attrition down to low single digits and leverage down to low 5's (from 6x.) Already paying back intercompany loan. - AmeriGas bonds trading in the low 6% range down from 9%+ a year+ ago - Highlighted a number of initiatives to improve profitability none of which require capital. - Utilities Midstream and UGI International all are performing well. - Could put up a $3.40+ EPS number next year with a decent AmeriGas turnaround Zero reason for this to be at 10-11x EPS. See "comps". $UGI An investing lesson here: narrative vs." [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1920473603289620853) 2025-05-08T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI last post for a while on the name; this goes into the set-and-forget part of my portfolio. 11x EPS compared to similar Ute/Midstream/other combo like $NJR at 16x and pure gas utes at 20x. This should re-rate back towards 15x in the next few years and earnings should grow $4 in [--] years or so. [--] year total return double for a utility. $UGI - UGI Corporation: A $50 Utility Stock On Sale For $35. The Sale May Not Last Much Longer. https://t.co/UER1HfnRKb #trading #finance #business $UGI - UGI Corporation: A $50 Utility Stock On Sale For $35. The Sale May Not Last Much Longer." [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1921238992483139835) 2025-05-10T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Arbtrader69 Yeah a lot of names like this you may not expect. Murphy USA similar" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1921532739192275309) 2025-05-11T11:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AL Air Lease. This is a good time to ring the register and switch back to $AER. Book Value after subtracting prefs around $63-64 (thanks for those who corrected me) we're now at just a sub-10% discount. It was 40% a few weeks ago. $AER AerCap at a 16% premium *BUT* they're still due a lot of insurance claims. Once they receive those it's closer to a 5% premium. $AL Air Lease Looks very strong at initial glance Q1 Adj. EPS $1.51 Beats $0.94 Sales $738.28M Beat $710.23M Another $226.7 million in cash insurance recoveries Book Value above $70 will be $73ish after Q2. This should be $60/share" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1924827937536122986) 2025-05-20T14:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Suicide95518428 I saw this with my finger on the sell button of the $MPC I picked up at $125 for the reasons you describe but Surely the swath of refinery closers in the US should support valuations here Plus with $MPC the $MPLX is 80% of the value" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1927699576753901573) 2025-05-28T12:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@orrdavid Its less compelling here short term. I have some in taxable that Ill keep but I flipped other shares from to $AL and now back" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1930213852710408533) 2025-06-04T10:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UGI $AMZN Amazon to invest $20 billion in PA to expand cloud computing infrastructure and advance AI innovation Salem Township and Falls Township are the first communities identified as sites for these future innovation campuses. UGI Corp provides NG service to both towns https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-pennsylvania-investment-cloud-infrastructure-ai-innovation https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-pennsylvania-investment-cloud-infrastructure-ai-innovation" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1932099982451937420) 2025-06-09T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$KHC $SJM I've been bearish on CPG forever; but are these a buy at this point $KHC at a forever low w/ sub [--] P/E 6%+ yield etc. Paid off 35% of debt in past [--] years ($30B down to $19B now.)" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1932569473006854513) 2025-06-10T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RogueWayve @MadisonLackey44 If only investing was as easy as picking "the cheapest." $DAC is in a commodity (ship) environment facing an potential oversupply (overblown and not in their ship sizes but) $AL is in a 2-producer market facing a persistent shortfall with 7+ year leases" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1936051122222813578) 2025-06-20T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@retaox $HRB going to grow EPS about 15% a year between OpIncome growth and repurchases and available for 10x" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1939343896917446751) 2025-06-29T15:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JohnHuber72 Largely my thesis when I bought a ton of $HRB at 6x FCF. Turns out they had some growth to go with it" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1943856393788039504) 2025-07-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$DAC Danaos - I think mgmt perfidy is take-private in the $130 range. - Rates have strengthened since May & Red Sea transits likely heading down after [--] awful attacks - There's a vessel oversupply but it's mostly in the ultra-large ship class less so where $DAC and $GSL focus $dac shipping market has held up so much better than expected and Danaos has just gotten cheaper and cheaper over the last two years not a [----] torqued equity stub situation but the margin of safety seems truly enormous now short of the worst possible mgmt perfidy $dac shipping market has held up so much better than" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1944781111990604222) 2025-07-14T15:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UGI UGI Corp Seems like good news for a big PA gas utility trading at 11x. 2nd announcement today Coreweave also investing $6B in a Lancaster PA data center (UGI Service area.) https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/coreweave-plans-6bn-data-center-in-lancaster-pennsylvania/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/coreweave-plans-6bn-data-center-in-lancaster-pennsylvania/" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1945170707412848924) 2025-07-15T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@phoenixvalue Hahaha. What hes got a new ETF After how good $Roro and $jojo have done" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1945268618188492895) 2025-07-15T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BourbonCap Check out $HRB" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947330739462193501) 2025-07-21T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing anything w/ short interest let's peak at $HRB which squeezed after last Q4's earnings still has 9% SI with this year's Q4 50% better than last due to a tax benefit most of the bear case weakened + shares still at 10x FCF" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947756035051049070) 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HRB While $XLF +25% YoY $HRB is flat & down 13% from Q3 earnings despite [--]. Repurchasing $400m in shares [--]. IRS Free File shut down [--]. Taxes again changing in FY26 with more itemizers w/ $40k SALT cap [--]. $INTU at YTD highs [--]. Had a very good tax season w/ likely Q4 beat" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947756036653519241) 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HRB Q4 Beat CEO Jeff Jones basically has told you Q4 will be very good. Q3 Pre-tax earnings up 5.7% with 5% less S/O. Favorable tax rate this year will provide another [--] cents EPS/$90m for repurchases" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947756038091890701) 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HRB Q1 & Q2 Repurchases HRB returns 100% of FCF to shareholders thru divs+buybacks. They spent $430m last year but this year it could be closer to $600m enough to retire 8% of shares at $56/share. They do not repurchase during tax season; most happen in Aug Sep and Nov" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947756040143179811) 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HRB In summary: the most boring compounder on earth [--]. Half market EPS multiple 10x FCF returning all to shareholders [--]. Could squeeze again after Q4 [--]. A lot of repurchases coming very soon in a short window Please share and/or comment. What do we think" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1947756042441658774) 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AER AerCap $2.83 in-line or small beat. I would say "boring in line quarter" with a low amount of sales (already reported) but a big guidance raise for a company that usually tip-toes guidance up by whatever they beat by. Share count down 10% YoY. [----] likely $13-14 EPS" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1950517533288595771) 2025-07-30T11:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AER guided - Core earnings (the part that Wall St cares about allegedly) up from $8.50 to $9.50-10.50 - Q3 & Q4 sales both Q1 - Net Int. Margin growing Q3 into [--] FY25 EPS looking closer to $14 FY26 $16+ Long AER short $FTAI pair trade getting unwound today" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1950588979906285656) 2025-07-30T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SmallCapVal Not sure. For what its worth $MUSA revalued a lot lower recently" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1951628977560293571) 2025-08-02T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ToddWenning @SmallCapVal $MUSA reporting good results Trucking miles driven hasn't dropped much if at all and $MUSA also reported fuel margins up YoY. I need to dig deeper after some coffee but these don't look like macro problems" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1951632814526402937) 2025-08-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DAC At good rates too. 88% contracted for [--]. Hopefully we see even more through year end. Bulk turned a small profit and should see a good Q3. Cash +$100m net debt down $67m They bought back a ton in April hopefully turn that back on soon. @FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y from Apr '26-Apr '28 -Juliet +1Y from Sep '25-Aug '26 -Dalian +2Y from Mar '26-Apr '28 -Monaco -3M from Dec '26-Sep '26 @FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1952488377154154982) 2025-08-04T21:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ET Energy Transfer A $5.3B pipeline that wasn't even on their proposed project list Remember the guidance for sub $1 billion CapEx from a few years back That was fun. https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-announces-natural-gas-pipeline-project-serve https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-announces-natural-gas-pipeline-project-serve" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1953075499455992047) 2025-08-06T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@puppyeh1 You need to subtract out the $900m in prefs at $AL. Its $AER at [----] (close enough) but $AL is $65 book value net of the prefs so .84x not .75x" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1953244906291355999) 2025-08-07T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HRB H&R Block reports Tuesday. I am the only nerd on earth that's excited for it. Asset-light recession proof share cannibal at 10x EPS growing NI 5% + repurchasing 6%+ shares/year in a market where Tobacco co's trade 12x Popped after Q4 last year and could again. Why not H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing anything w/ short interest let's peak at $HRB which squeezed after last Q4's earnings still has 9% SI with this year's Q4 50% better than last due to a tax benefit most of the bear case weakened + shares still at 10x FCF H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1953835416127255041) 2025-08-08T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BasedStatistic Hes never been my favorite he wasted an absurd amount on Wave. Otherwise did a decent job although I believe theres a ton of fat to trim. Mostly a nothing burger I think" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1955078963866275993) 2025-08-12T01:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB Earnings: - Total revenue of $3.8billion increased by $150.6 million or 4.2% primarily due to an increase in overall net average charge (NAC) and higher company-owned return volumes in the U.S. partially offset by lower interest and fee income on Emerald Advance. - https://t.co/JnkVSLUOMN $HRB Earnings: - Total revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1955363694629748782) 2025-08-12T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HRB Guiding for $400m of repurchases again. 5% EBITDA growth + 6% repurchases + 3% dividend. Mid double digit grower and if they tighten up expenses (is $300m if marketing really needed) it's got a lot more upside. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1955366325175591136) 2025-08-12T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HRB -Sounds like CEO Jones is actually just retiring. -Sounds like the FY26 guide for $4.75-5 is conservative -Talk about tailwinds to control spending $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1955374452184625386) 2025-08-12T21:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HRB H&R Block so the answer to "Why not" was "we didn't get the tax credit we guided to and expenses were high." Mea Culpa - my first miss of the year. That all said: 5% EBITDA guide for next year is strong. At current prices they repurchase 7% of shares. Dividend yield is getting respectable: 3.5%. They did a great job of managing expenses last year and most revenue growth dropped to the bottom line and they struggled this year. Still think this deserves more than a 9-10x multiple when it can grow MSD and is returning all the cash. $HRB H&R Block reports Tuesday. I am the only nerd on earth" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1955640636335349785) 2025-08-13T14:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Id be having such a good week if $HRB didnt miss a layup (at least theyre going to do $250m in repurchases at lower prices.) May add to $CNC and $ELV tomorrow. They could both double in [--] months. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1956115994159485192) 2025-08-14T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@okieinvestor @Citrini7 You long $UGI with me Vince 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1956157403520508007) 2025-08-15T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@sceptic_cap @CapitalObserver Best run but what metric" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1957639664929849395) 2025-08-19T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "MLP Bros anyone have an opinion on OneOK $OKE here Down 35% from November highs under 12x [----] EPS estimates while $KMI and $WMB sport far high valuations" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1958996839610687734) 2025-08-22T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I just dont see it. Its a leading company with reasonable leverage. If COMAC ever ramps I think its $BA and Airbus lose it becomes a [--] player market instead of [--]. Most westerners will never fly on a Chinese built plane. Actually kicking the tires on $OKE now and $ET is a max position. Im worried pipelines and LNG export are getting overbuilt https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959210551743324584 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959210551743324584" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1959210551743324584) 2025-08-23T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CapitalObserver Yeah that and $ELV. Hopefully $CI hit the gas on some repurchases under $300" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1959691271527964801) 2025-08-24T18:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@puppyeh1 Wow tiny premium. Surprised" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1962830957746004371) 2025-09-02T10:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Air Lease $AL getting private for $65/share all cash offer. Good winner for me this year but I already swapped back to $AER. And there it is. $AL getting taken off the board as predicted. This is a decent winner and hard to complain re the outcome but the price looks very light - both in the context of PnL trajectory and rel valuation (look at $AER). So prob worth sticking around to see if And there it is. $AL getting taken off the board as predicted. This is a decent winner and hard to complain re the outcome but the price looks very light - both in the context of PnL trajectory and rel" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1962831199891566665) 2025-09-02T10:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SmallCapVal Yeah it's not a great price. Many holders might be happy since $AL traded in the $40's until the last [--] months but there's little deal premium" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1962866802322477142) 2025-09-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DOLE David Murdock passed away in June family now can sell tax free with stepped up basis. Good buying opportunity for a defensive name that's been doing well. I bought a small position this morning. If you're interested in owning $DOLE it is currently on 10% off sale for a non-fundamental reason (a legacy owner unloading all its shares) The legacy owner (David Murdock 13% equity owner) is in his late 90s has no role whatsoever in the business and has long expressed https://t.co/rZUHduQJiE If you're interested in owning $DOLE it is currently on 10% off sale for a non-fundamental reason (a" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1963597220340797931) 2025-09-04T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@valuesci I think they all still do quite well from here. $CI is the least risky IMO $ELV a close 2nd $CNC has (or at least had. it's up 35% from my buy) the most upside" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966181163376279552) 2025-09-11T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CNC Centene Sep-12-2025 Barclays analyst Andrew Mok maintains Centene (CNC) with a Equal-Weight and raises the price target from $33 to $35. I'm not above taking a victory lap. Centene $CNC up almost 30% from a week ago when the analyst with [--] years of investing experience cut the price target. I'm not above taking a victory lap. Centene $CNC up almost 30% from a week ago when the analyst with [--] years of investing experience cut the price target" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966490695834738718) 2025-09-12T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BearBullDebate You're likely correct but remember $CRCL opened at $35 and then ran to $200 so there could still be opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966524294898270356) 2025-09-12T15:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@green_pumpsie @SayNoToTrading I was speaking to the ones in the HC space (Andrew Mok). it's wild the difference though. In the aircraft sector Jamie Baker is excellent on $AER and $AL calls. Some of the others ask such inane questions you can watch management have to hold back making fun of them" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966554360864747602) 2025-09-12T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nums_over_narrs @GoForGrubes2 I hear everything you're saying I just have a hard time viewing anything at 25x as defensive. but I hear you. If you like water take a look at $ARTNA. Not long myself but on my watch list" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966611727962791976) 2025-09-12T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nums_over_narrs @GoForGrubes2 Yeah I get that and I agree. I think using long term fixed coupon bonds as "defensive" risks above trend inflation being the norm. I like the geographies were $ARTNA serves fairly pro-business and growing" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1966622574520995845) 2025-09-12T21:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@OSA_Rochester Whered we see the news for this one" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1970020255456977350) 2025-09-22T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SayNoToTrading @TSOH_Investing I added $ALL last week (2% position) and might increase it. Too cheap everyone selling the boring stocks to chase tech" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1970250045346680958) 2025-09-22T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Wrote up my latest thoughts on $AER AerCap today. Easy money made but I see 20% returns for the next few years. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825457-aercap-still-has-plenty-of-upside-ahead https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825457-aercap-still-has-plenty-of-upside-ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1970863196706607297) 2025-09-24T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Tintincapital My basic issue with all of these stocks is that they still aren't cheap enough given the headwinds. Funny I just flew out of EDI on Monday and was on Islay (where $DEO has some plants) a few days earlier" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1970892313757978763) 2025-09-24T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Tintincapital You're giving the example of where this goes wrong: consumer staples. People bid them up to 30x and now they're 10x once their staying power showed weakness. No position here either way I just think this is an tough way to make money" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1970934068805243274) 2025-09-24T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Long $OKE - 5% position. We're still doing this AI power thing right Even after the acquisitions $OKE still very long NG. OBBB beneficiary still guiding to mid/high single digit EBITDA growth. Just too cheap vs peers: reminder $KMI which hasn't grown EBITDA in [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1971571087357227285) 2025-09-26T13:42Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements "$UNFI United Foods Hey sometimes its just math @kingdomcapadv Implies 585-615 adj EBITDA without the incident and an exit rate higher than that. If theyre guiding for 2.5x by YE26 they must be very confident in it and likely plan to hit it sooner. Implies a $700+ ebitda number for next year @kingdomcapadv Implies 585-615 adj EBITDA without the incident and an exit rate higher than that. If theyre guiding for 2.5x by YE26 they must be very confident in it and likely plan to hit it sooner. Implies a $700+ ebitda number for next year" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1972990974017335483) 2025-09-30T11:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AER AerCap Casually repurchased [---] million shares @ $119.95/share. No big deal Another $500m in settlements (this was known.) Sold [--] aircraft including [--] 777's. Big sales quarter. Likely over $4 in EPS in Q3. If it doesn't spike I'm adding . https://www.aercap.com/investors/news-events/news/detail/611/aercap-leased-purchased-and-sold-146-assets-in-the-third https://www.aercap.com/investors/news-events/news/detail/611/aercap-leased-purchased-and-sold-146-assets-in-the-third" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1974092766046269551) 2025-10-03T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Hellmi96 Possible. Ive owned $KMI off and on and I passed when it was $17 because I thought it was pricey" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1974509665213202738) 2025-10-04T16:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ArneUlland @iWard95008698 I personally know one of the Presidents at a big $DHR business and shes a toxic witch that destroys everything she touches. That they hired her makes the stock uninvestable to me" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1974853870481543176) 2025-10-05T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Starter position on Harrow $HROW here. Not sure if this is a long or short term play for me but it's down a lot in a week on what I consider minor news (and my entire career/ day job is in an FDA regulated industry. Probably bounces into week end. $HROW IR is contacting investors. Turns out nothing material has occurred. Mgmt was confused about the share price until investors explained the latest conspiracy theory. Now that they know they are correcting the record. Who could have seen that coming Who 😂🤣 $HROW IR is contacting investors. Turns out nothing material has occurred. Mgmt was" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1976335077190795285) 2025-10-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@siyul I think so. I wish I understood this industry better. Them $DOW others all at multidecade lows" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1977023519876944036) 2025-10-11T14:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@siyul Some businesses are easy to understand ( $HRB $UNFI) others require real industry knowledge to be consistently successful (biotech.) This is probably somewhere in the middle" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1977028084139540907) 2025-10-11T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@christankerfund Still having trouble understanding how Harpex is this strong while Spot indexes (SCFI) are so weak especially with all the capacity yet to be delivered in the next few years" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1977360055201591785) 2025-10-12T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PGR Progessive -8% seems overdone considering they did "too well" in Florida. Multiple on the best insurance company not looking so high anymore. Added over 4m policies (12%) YoY. $PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their personal lines department because they were too profitable (above statutory limits) and have to credit money back to policyholders as a result. This credit ballooned https://t.co/hqbGXfkJQj $PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978460222713675871) 2025-10-15T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@bigcoveranch I have to believe a ton of this is tax loss selling. the valuation difference and price action between $OKE and $KMI and $WMB is wild" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978553907744755994) 2025-10-15T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@catapultcap Id be more interested but the leverage scares me. Theyre only going to be able to pay down $100-125m on an $380m EBITDA guide. Need to see when growth goes positive again. That said price action is bad I think in general people are dumping for tax losses" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978785258188288434) 2025-10-16T11:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting I'll do a bit more digging. Would be helpful to hear comments on recent trends. Maybe this has the best upside but this general theme is prevelant across a lot of consumer focused companies. Probably a lot of opportunties in this space. $SON now trading a 6.5x FY26 EPS 5%+ yield 3.5x leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978812768380662215) 2025-10-16T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CapitalObserver It's just a question of upside to these numbers. $ELV and $CNC probably at earnings bottoms here and get dramatically better next year into [--]. (I own both plus $CI.) I'd like to see if $CI repurchased shares in Q3" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978814752433308053) 2025-10-16T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I know this has been covered and it may not mean much but the equal weight $RSP hasn't gone anywhere since last November. Extreme fear with $SPY 2% off all-time highs is comedy https://t.co/4lSFAHBfdC Extreme fear with $SPY 2% off all-time highs is comedy https://t.co/4lSFAHBfdC" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1978920784983736677) 2025-10-16T20:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@UnclePennyBagz3 Interesting call - why has it been getting hammered lately Strange" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1980326880181207208) 2025-10-20T17:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@UnclePennyBagz3 Same levels now than it was in [----] with bond yields higher and PBI stock at $3" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1980327286990909587) 2025-10-20T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@UnclePennyBagz3 @kingdomcapadv $PBI's profitability has to do with mail volume" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1980343338898452515) 2025-10-20T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOG down 5% on the OpenaI browser rumor/announcement for the 5th time Stupid theres plenty of other browsers already. $GOOG: OpenAI new browser Fundamentally Google will probably still do fine given the strength of the other segments but do note that OpenAI's most probable and scaleable business model will be Ads and with Ad dollars fixed someone might have to lose share. Could be $GOOG https://t.co/kuTKvFJdGm $GOOG: OpenAI new browser Fundamentally Google will probably still do fine given the strength of the other segments but do note that OpenAI's most probable and scaleable business" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1980654735733715204) 2025-10-21T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@kingdomcapadv I think that math checks out. That said ran from $24 - $43 in [--] months so probably due for some profit taking" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981004745587482712) 2025-10-22T14:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Tomorrow is going to be interesting for $UNH and $CNC. UNH only down 1% while CNC down 7% I don't think that makes a lot of sense" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981148265182875911) 2025-10-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KoolturaContent @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj I worry that this $MOH print will reset expectations for the entire sector on pace of recovery or when they will recover. I lightened up exposure AH and may sell more tomorrow. See better opportunities in the P/C insurance space now that these are all WAY off their lows" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981183422455505188) 2025-10-23T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CNC $ELV $UNH $CI I lightened up some exposure AH and I may lighten more tomorrow. Maybe Molina $MOH is a one-off but that was ugly. I think these move further down before heading back up. I like $ALL $PGR $CB better here. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981184959273718126) 2025-10-23T02:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Literally every one of these have guided down already. Everyone assumed they were conservative and last q's guidance was the bottom. $MOH just blew up that theory and threw cold water on [----] being better. Could be a $MOH problem but I wouldn't bet on it" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981198386255843337) 2025-10-23T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@stkmstr22 I thought that was the case for all of them to be honest. Take the lump and build from there. So the size of the $MOH miss surprised me plus $ELV having decent results and still selling off. $CI last quarter reaffirmed guidance and got smoked. I think we go risk-off tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981204746515206588) 2025-10-23T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@wabuffo I hate that I missed $GTX. my kind of stock" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981336081195844064) 2025-10-23T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Want to share the numbers you're seeing $UNH did $24 in [----] (peak year.) They're supposed to do $16 this year. That seems like 33% to me. In addition $UNH involved in financial shenanigans selling businesses and booking as part of normal earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981345454034981180) 2025-10-23T13:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Gotcha. We'll see. Holding up very well today. Hopefully $MOH is a one-off" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981400410972967332) 2025-10-23T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Could be correct. I think the more concerning part of the $MOH report is the guidance. That said expectations have probably lowered here in the last day" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981400964751085685) 2025-10-23T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@a_living_fossil @GardinerIsland So they did spend $275m in the last year for [--] new ships but unlike $DAC theyre selling older ones at nice gains too. 15% off their recent highs and with the charter market strengthening last few weeks its a buy" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1981672119684780536) 2025-10-24T10:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@andrewcoye I added a small $CB position this week (post earnings while the stock was flat.)" [X Link](https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/1982044782886113679) 2025-10-25T11:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@FishtownCap Fishtown Capital
Fishtown Capital posts on X about $aer, debt, $al, $hrb the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-------] -0.39%
- [--] Month [-------] +231%
- [--] Months [-------] -22%
- [--] Year [---------] +47%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -10%
- [--] Month [---] +54%
- [--] Months [---] +22%
- [--] Year [---] +51%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.79%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +11%
- [--] Year [-----] +43%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies technology brands countries automotive brands currencies social networks celebrities us election
Social topic influence $aer #6, debt, $al, $hrb #13, money, $et #14, insurance, stocks #1870, $t, $dac
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @madisonlackey44 @siyul @capitalobserver @kingdomcapadv @puppyeh1 @blondesnmoney @orrdavid @christankerfund @andrewcoye @shafrontom @sjoldvalueguy @revcap @basedstatistic @taobanker @marketswithmay @suicide95518428 @valuesci @crowdturtle @saynototrading @ryenotberben
Top assets mentioned Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER) ArchLoot (AL) H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Energy Transfer, LP. (ET) AT&T Inc. (T) Danaos Corporation (DAC) Centene Corp (CNC) Cigna Corp (CI) UGI Corporation (UGI) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Partisia Blockchain (MPC) ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC Class A Common Stock (FTAI) Elevance Health Inc (ELV) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Alliance Fan Token (ALL) Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD) MPLX LP (MPLX) Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI) Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) Progressive Corp (PGR) Fiserv Inc (FISV) Intuit Inc. (INTU) Williams Companies Inc (WMB) Metadium (META) Diageo plc (DEO) Oxygen (OXY) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Coca-Cola Co (KO) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Metaplex (MPLX) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@SimonRMerton @notabigdeal111 @cecbikes @scot_work @Tesla @elonmusk Theyre both Bagholder slang baggie. I figured youd be familiar"
X Link 2019-04-20T06:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My favorite type of $TSLA bagholder the one that says "what have you done with your life" to defend their hero Elon from behind an anonymous account. So sad pathetic and cowardly. Sorry for your losses this month buddy More to come $TSLAQ"
X Link 2019-04-28T00:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@glenntongue @ErikSdalen Glenn it was 58% before the latest cuts https://leasehackr.com/blog/2019/5/3/breaking-down-teslas-new-399month-model-3-lease-in-depth-analysisformat=amp https://leasehackr.com/blog/2019/5/3/breaking-down-teslas-new-399month-model-3-lease-in-depth-analysisformat=amp"
X Link 2019-07-22T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ARaj_Energy @JavierBlas 15-20bbl now and getting worse. It should rebound in 2H but I dont think back to previous levels. Thats why Im so bearish. The Saudi thing is noise here"
X Link 2020-03-25T11:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DaSyndicator @MadThunderdome Bought $NOK at $4.80 and sold the weekly $5 call for [--] cents. If it gets called away and I make 11% in [--] days cool. Unlike GMEBB etc. that have doubled/tripled in weeks NOK traded between $4-5 most of the year"
X Link 2021-01-26T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DaSyndicator @MadThunderdome Better stocks out there to Yolo. NOK too big and lots of long time holders would cash out at $6-7. I'll take 11% in [--] days"
X Link 2021-01-26T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@jablamsky @j_aja4 It's already trading at 40x revenue and revenue will be flat/down next year. What's the play here"
X Link 2021-02-25T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@j_aja4 @jablamsky For those people Zoom makes nothing. Not a positive for $ZM stock. We use Teams for most meetings now. Integrates nicely with Outlook. If you were paying for a big company would you pay for Zoom or use Teams free"
X Link 2021-02-25T18:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@siyul @restrinct @Keubiko @SmallCapKing2 @GrantTh70973333 FYI went long a small-ish position at $55.90. I think this is back to $60 in short order and $EBAY themselves repurchases shares should be supportive"
X Link 2021-04-29T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$TDS Telephone and Data Systems going to see a large sell tomorrow. Shares are up 35% since the December lows rallying with the rest of the beaten down stuff. Will be interesting to see who's buying and what happens tomorrow. $SDY will be selling a 10% stake in $TDS 9% stake in $EMBC and 6% stake in $MSEX. It's the largest holder of TDS & EMBC and the second largest holder of MSEX. The trades will all happen on 1/31 and will account for a significant % of each stock's average daily trading volume https://t.co/VSWytUkhpq $SDY will be selling a 10% stake in $TDS 9% stake in $EMBC and 6% stake"
X Link 2023-01-30T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hedgeye_RJM @Hedgeye_Staples $BUD is still up 50% in [--] months and at 20x earnings. Negative comps could hurt it. BL drinks switching to Miller and Coors products too. I bet this accelerates next week. Siphoning off even a moderate # of BL drinks would be a big increase in case volume for $TAP"
X Link 2023-04-19T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mr_Derivatives Yeah getting political and alienating a large portion of your customer base will do that. Their net income is down 33% from [--] years ago net debt has tripled share count is higher but the stock is still up since then. $DIS is not cheap"
X Link 2023-06-26T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So why not $VCLT here (Vanguard IG Corporate ETF) Less volatile core CPI will need to replace: 0.3% July 0.6% August 0.6% September 0.3% October With slowing shelter I expect m/m core CPI to be between 0%-0.2% in the coming months which means that y/y core CPI should be between 3%-4% by October. FED should continue to Less volatile core CPI will need to replace: 0.3% July 0.6% August 0.6% September 0.3% October With slowing shelter I expect m/m core CPI to be between 0%-0.2% in the coming months which means that y/y core CPI should be between 3%-4% by October. FED should continue to"
X Link 2023-07-12T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@valuations_ @scroogecapital @DummyCapital @MichealTrope @hackcelerity Whens the last time Berkshire sold anything for a profit They only seem to ever sell losers. Should have sold $KO decades ago and theyll probably ride $AAPL down to $120. Frustrating as heck as a shareholder that they never sell"
X Link 2023-10-29T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@irbezek Why $HRL over something like $CAG that's at 10x earnings now (and an over 5% yield.)"
X Link 2024-02-13T00:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ok I sold $BRK $BRKB here at $425 premarket. There was nothing bullish in that letter. Berkshires valuation is out of wack. [--]. BNSF is down mostly on labor issues and reading between the lines its not getting better. [--]. BHE hes also soured on. Liability from wildfires a huge deal as is the contract of fair profit being broken. [--]. Berkshire stopped repurchase around $350 in Q4. [--]. Pilot was massively overpaid for. [--]. Apple barely got a mention If you cant say something nice dont say anything at all. Its overvalued and even Warren thinks so. [--]. GEICO lost almost 10% of customers last year but"
X Link 2024-02-26T13:17Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements
"$DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and could be $400m+ in [----] just with the contracted $ today (revenue visibility should increase as the year goes on.) Not bad for $1.4B market cap with little debt"
X Link 2024-03-01T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DAC Newbuilding Price index and why they picked up those options. If this just flatlines from here should keep a lid on new supply until market gets back into a better balance. $DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and could be $400m+ in [----] just with the contracted $ today (revenue visibility should increase as the year goes on.) Not bad for $1.4B market cap with little https://t.co/w1vOdOn6Pe $DAC Danaos. From their [----] 20-F. Some investors worried about newbuilds but they should do $200-250 in FCF in [----] and"
X Link 2024-03-07T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I need to call out my friend @natstewart5 this morning. He has been on absolute fire over the last few years. Nailed $NLOP early good calls on $GTX major win last year with $NRP. His Substack is absolutely worth subscribing to"
X Link 2024-03-22T14:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@irbezek $DEO is a bad pick IMO when you have to constantly purchase brands started up by celebs for billions to stay relevant. But AI is not the issue"
X Link 2024-05-29T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ok so pair trade idea long $TAP (8.5x EPS returning all earnings to shareholders) and short $BUD at 17x. Why not"
X Link 2024-06-16T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The point of the pair trade is relative performance. If beer declines I think $BUD does a lot worse than $TAP. Under 10x even stagnant/slow declining business can be helped with buybacks. At 17x not as much. I have never bought into the $DEO bull case and its still pricey. Far earlier for celebs to launch niche liquor brands that beer. Look at Aviator Gin etc. $DEO cant just buy everyone forever and win that way"
X Link 2024-06-16T17:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rociousSpelling @puppyeh1 @pembridge_cap @secretlyaninja @ShafronTom 80% of $AERs debt is due in [--] years. They don't give a number in the 10-K but it's about [--] years not [--]. Both debt schedules look very similar. Interest rate difference is 3.5% AER vs. 3.77% AL this year"
X Link 2024-06-27T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MadisonLackey44 @NuggetCapital @taobanker @rajasark Youll see a lot less buybacks with a lot less FCF. I also like the MPLX ownership and cash flow stability from it. But you can also just buy MPLX"
X Link 2024-08-29T11:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think energy is going to be tough into next year ($AMPY $DK) refining I'd particularly avoid. $ALTO would be up my alley but I don't trust them operationally. $DAC is tough here. I'm very leveraged to the upside or a buyout but don't see a near term catalyst. Probably prefer $NMM here since they're actively buying back and they're similar valuations. If $DAC restarts legitimate buybacks I'd be more bullish"
X Link 2024-09-11T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@orrdavid It's such a tough business. I've kicked the tires on $BMWYY a lot. Love the products they sell at luxury price points all aspects of a good business low multiple etc. But auto sucks in general and Germany seems hell bent on destroying itself. Not investable"
X Link 2024-09-12T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ultraviolence_a @MadisonLackey44 I'd avoid anything HQ'd in Germany; the Germans seem hell bent on committing economic seppuku. $BMWYY also at multi year lows"
X Link 2024-09-17T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@marketswithmay Very nice. I like this sector since valuations became more reasonable and I don't want to add to $ET just because of the tax complexities with selling portions of an MLP. That all said some of Rich's buys over the years have been ill timed. But at $13 this was a slam dunk"
X Link 2024-10-17T14:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Funny thing is that if $AER announced it was going to fully wind down its portfolio and return all capital to shareholders like $NLOP it would probably jump 30%. But theyre partially doing this and returning all profits. $AER 👀👀 https://t.co/MjkUQGmpZH https://t.co/0d0O3hNxet $AER 👀👀 https://t.co/MjkUQGmpZH https://t.co/0d0O3hNxet"
X Link 2024-10-30T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In the article one of the things I clear up is that HRB makes 7x the amount of revenue from in person tax help versus their digital DIY channels. This has always been a small part of their business. Ignoring that many of these IRS initiatives go away under Trump theres plenty of free/cheap IRS filing options including printing and mailing it. I use HRB tax software. You can file [--] different Fed returns for free for the $40 tax software (I file for myself and my Mom.) I think thats a pretty good value and its never been hard. The FTC and IRS are hard at work on non issues they think make good"
X Link 2024-11-10T18:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ThinkFinance999 Ps same complaints about $INTU and tax software is a way larger portion of their business. Theyre at ATHs and a 35x multiple"
X Link 2024-11-10T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@crowdturtle $NLOP is a big miss for me this year. @natstewart5 alerted me early to it and I never pulled the trigger (I've had an overly bearish bias this year and it cost me) and I've read all @kingdomcapadv on it. I just don't understand the short thesis here"
X Link 2024-12-11T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BZH - coild double if rates drop if they stay here or get worse it could get ugly. $27 stock. $40 book value. Buy back as much as possible or go debt free right Nah lets just keep growing inventory. What could go wrong Beazer Homes is struggling to move inventory in Texas. - Mortgage rate buy downs - $15k to $20k towards closing costs - Price cuts - Additional significant discounts if you negotiate especially on spec homes. "This year we've had the opposite of the Santa Claus rally we saw https://t.co/DtWKZ50886 Beazer Homes is struggling to move inventory in Texas. - Mortgage rate buy downs"
X Link 2024-12-31T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Positioning heading into 2025: 90% Long (in size order): $AER $ET $HRB $UGI $GOOGL $T $VZ $MPC $CSX $DAC $JPM Prefs 25% Short $SPY $AAPL $ARKK $WMB $WMT $COST Short basket (except SPY) are names that are WAY overextended and I think see profit taking early [----]. Failed Santa rally not bullish overall especially for these window dressing names. 35x+ for low-growth names is crazy IMO especially Apple"
X Link 2024-12-31T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@aschmidt2930 Still like it just favor some other names over it and a little uncomfortable with fashion in general (I figure Im the dumb money there.) Added $MPC instead. Theres a lot of value I like now. Id like to be long $CI $SIRI $AL $PBI but Im already longer than my target"
X Link 2024-12-31T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI Market figuring out there's a utility trading at 10x EPS even with [--] of its [--] divisions are doing well and the cold US winter will likely helping the underperforming division"
X Link 2025-01-14T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Very nice $UGI writeup. Similar points to what I made a year ago. 42% return from my writeup and still looks cheap at 10x when every other NG util/midstream has 🚀( $KMI $WMB are doubles from a year ago) $PEG up 60% etc. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658062-ugi-corporation-my-top-rebound-pick-for-2024 UGI Corporation (Symbol: UGI). One Hour Analysis: Weak Performance at AmeriGas Division Obscures Strong Performance of Natural Gas Utility and Midstream Assets. by @Investing501 https://t.co/TNgQ5WWVRn https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658062-ugi-corporation-my-top-rebound-pick-for-2024 UGI"
X Link 2025-01-21T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So if there are losers from a Deepseek efficiency breakthrough other than $NVDA $AMD it's probably the US NG complex especially $KMI and $WMB which are all of a sudden high multiple. $ET is my biggest position but far cheaper than the above names. $KMI The Data Center Demand slide https://t.co/NHvvjRv1uK $KMI The Data Center Demand slide https://t.co/NHvvjRv1uK"
X Link 2025-01-27T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CI Surprised at the -11% reaction (its on tiny volume.) probably a buying opportunity if it stays here. $CI -10.9% Cigna's Q4 earnings fell well short of Wall Street's expectations as high healthcare costs hurt results in a segment of its insurance business: - Q4 adj. EPS of $6.64 $1.15 worse than the analyst estimate of $7.79; - Q4 Medical-loss ratio or the share of premiums $CI -10.9% Cigna's Q4 earnings fell well short of Wall Street's expectations as high healthcare costs hurt results in a segment of its insurance business: - Q4 adj. EPS of $6.64 $1.15 worse than the analyst estimate of"
X Link 2025-01-30T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is the group that owned the direct e-tax file thing. The thing that no sane person would have ever used but caused $HRB to drop 10% at one point last year. That group has been deleted That group has been deleted"
X Link 2025-02-03T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SowingAlphaSeed We're different than the UK with the EITC and other programs like that. E-file is fine and low income people can use existing software for it. $HRB's tax software costs like $30. I just thought this IRS thing was a mistake for most people"
X Link 2025-02-03T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MPC Good earnings in a quarter with bad cracks. $MPLX distributions cover 100% of dividend+capital spending for [----]. $LB 268kbpd Houston refinery closing now. Grangemouth 140kbpd closes in Q2 $PSX LA 150kbpd by YE. Return to office getting teeth again. Q2/Q3 could be good. $MPC Marathon Petroleum Q4 [----] Earnings - Adj EPS $0.77 (est $0.06) - Rev $33.47B (est $32.30B) $MPC Marathon Petroleum Q4 [----] Earnings - Adj EPS $0.77 (est $0.06) - Rev $33.47B (est $32.30B)"
X Link 2025-02-04T11:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT"
X Link 2025-02-06T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of data to quantify increase in lease rates. - Widebody recovery in [----] underreported https://seekingalpha.com/article/4755768-aercap-set-to-fly-higher-in-2025 $AER AerCap is an insane fat pitch. P/E of [--]. Forward P/E lower than [--]. Using all FCF to repurchase shares. Aircraft values hot and should remain so. Selling assets at 25%+ unlevered gain on sale. Strong leases signed in after [----] just now hitting P&L. CEO is one of the most"
X Link 2025-02-06T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Second day in a row cracks flying and refiners underperforming $XLE badly. What's going on $MPC $PSX $VLO #oott $PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT $PSX $VLO $MPC Why are refiners getting crushed today with crack spreads up #OOTT"
X Link 2025-02-07T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ET Energy Transfer Good overview of the upcoming earnings likely with a strong guide for FY25; the cold winter and strong NG will be a +. Even after a great run still cheap on most metrics with lots of tailwinds. Could finish the week above $21. Earnings Preview - $ET will report 4Q24 earnings on February [--] at 4:30pm ET. Analysts forecast a top and bottom line of $21407mm and $0.37 in sales and EPS respectively. $ET engages in natural gas pipeline transportation and transmission services through its Intrastate & Earnings Preview - $ET will report 4Q24 earnings on February [--] at 4:30pm ET."
X Link 2025-02-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DAC Danaos Quick Takeaways - $6.93 adj EPS (adjusted for $SBLK stake) - Repurchased 1.5% of shares in quarter (4% of float) - Plans to fund some of newbuilds with debt - $911m (97%) in contracted rev for [----] $781m (79%) for [----] If they keep repurchasing at this pace (they have the cash. plenty of it) shares move higher"
X Link 2025-02-10T23:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MLPguy Prob just spin it and have $PSX keep a big chunk $MPC $MPLX style"
X Link 2025-02-11T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Goodnight Sweet Prince. $ET Energy Transfer"
X Link 2025-02-11T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@taobanker I think $deo is in trouble. It doesnt deserve a high teens P/E"
X Link 2025-02-11T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ET Energy Transfer Wrote up my latest thoughts. I dont hate the big CapEx budget and next years guide is pretty strong. Another takeaway recontracting existing assets doesnt seem like the headwind it once was. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4757252-energy-transfer-stock-capex-focuses-optimizing-existing-assets-no-new-debtv=1739362629#comment-99605250 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4757252-energy-transfer-stock-capex-focuses-optimizing-existing-assets-no-new-debtv=1739362629#comment-99605250"
X Link 2025-02-12T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AER AerCap incredibly strong. Is this just rotation from growth - value or is an imminent settlement with the insurance companies over lost aircraft in Russia leaking out Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of data to quantify increase in lease rates. - Widebody recovery in [----] underreported https://t.co/L4lFLBGHcm Finally wrote up my thoughts around $AER. - Now maybe a good time to buy as I expect news on Russian recoveries soon (hopefully good news.) - Pulled in lots of"
X Link 2025-02-12T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@olvehe $AL Air lease not part of the same case. As of their latest 10-Q AL reported that no trial date has been set for them. $AER trial is concluding now"
X Link 2025-02-12T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ET Energy Transfer Still trades 8x DCF and an EV/EBITDA of [--]. 94% of the $5B FY25 budget is NG/NGL focused and is producing growth as recontracting existing assets at lower rates has been far less of a thing. $ET AI Deals Line Up for Energy Transfers Gas Supply Midstream company Energy Transfers executives say theyre working on more than [---] deals for gas-powered generation projects. (Hart) https://t.co/weY4v507Zz $ET AI Deals Line Up for Energy Transfers Gas Supply Midstream company Energy Transfers executives say theyre working on more than [---] deals for gas-powered generation projects."
X Link 2025-02-13T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CVS 50% off the bottom quick at now a "hopefully" 11x forward multiple. $CI Cigna still down 20% from last year and at 9x about to sell its Medicare division for $3.7 billion and use the $ to fund buybacks (and using its regular earnings for buybacks.) Business historically traded at a mid-teens multiple. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1890057246412857845 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1890057246412857845"
X Link 2025-02-13T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MadisonLackey44 Why should $CVS trade higher than $CI in any case Which litigation are we referring to"
X Link 2025-02-13T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AL Air Lease Guiding to self funding all the new aircraft deliveries for [--] and [--] from OCF and Aircraft Sales. $AL Air Lease Pre-tax margins turning higher. Gain on sale margin looks like 12.4% for the quarter if I'm mathing correctly https://t.co/uQ8fb7cqYP $AL Air Lease Pre-tax margins turning higher. Gain on sale margin looks like 12.4% for the quarter if I'm mathing correctly https://t.co/uQ8fb7cqYP"
X Link 2025-02-13T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne Allegheny was both small and recent so couldnt judge how value added it is. Its also nearly irrelevant when you look at all the money Berkshire has lit on fire over the past decade"
X Link 2025-02-14T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne Shifting goal posts. We're talking about Berkshire's investments not Berkshire's stock. Berkshire's stock has benefitted from retained earnings but also from a higher multiple. If Berkshire traded at the same P/BV or P/E of its OpCo's as it did in [----] it would be at $360 now"
X Link 2025-02-14T04:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$45b on a 1+ trillion market cap is a 4.5% earnings yield. Even adding look thru on the equity book its 5.5-6% and I think it goes in reverse next two years as insurance underwriting profits normalize. Its pricey. I get the positives. I owned it for 15+ years and write articles about it"
X Link 2025-02-14T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This I do buy into and like a lot but realize this is progressively harder to do the bigger the organization (alignment of incentives principal/agent problems are all way bigger problems in $JPM type organizations.) Fully agree on the higher performers liking this. I used to preach to my leadership team that removing a lower performer (that they always thought was "average") was often addition by subtraction"
X Link 2025-02-14T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne You're triple counting like lots of Berkshire longs like to do. If you want to count the cash and equities seperately you need to back out interest from the cash and dividends from the equities which is $13B of that $45B. They aren't earning 10% of the equity book either"
X Link 2025-02-14T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UncleFe92586335 @lundeen_ne and it's only this high because of record underwriting profits which are certain to normalize. No they aren't producing $45 billion in operating earnings from their businesses. It's $30 billion and that's with a huge boost from underwriting"
X Link 2025-02-14T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@heath_ochroch Airlines still ultra strong. Get long $aer in size nerd"
X Link 2025-02-15T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@siyul @heath_ochroch Theyre both winners. I think $aer has more near term catalysts. $al could be a better 2-3 year play"
X Link 2025-02-15T02:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@siyul @heath_ochroch $aer hasnt lagged. $al has"
X Link 2025-02-15T02:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JBierne The amount of cope here is weird. Berkshire has done nothing but buy into dogs recently like $siri and $oxy If Berkshire buying a related company is your thesis well good luck"
X Link 2025-02-15T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RockFlowGoLow @LeverageValueP $KO been surprisingly strong. $HSY and $PEP on my watchlist but neither are exciting especially if the healthier eating thing sticks"
X Link 2025-02-16T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Government waste: personal anecdote and why Im hopeful for @DOGE Used to design Medical Imaging equipment. Imaging devices send images to whats called a PACS system; like an EMR for images (CT MR x-ray.) PACS market is diverse most major device makers (GE Siemens Fuji etc) make one. The VA decided to make their own called VISTA. Just the VA; the other branches all buy their own from all different vendors. If there was ever a product for the entire DoD to align on one vendor push for a great price and have them all communicate its this. But thats not the waste part. The VA forces every medical"
X Link 2025-02-16T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2 year lag of new aircraft placement/leases. I dont think thats the case for many re-leases anymore. See $ALs comments about lease extensions being done at higher rates. Its no longer advantageous for airlines to extend leases in advance especially leases from [----] and [----] because of the way lease accounting works. I think were [--] quarters away from re-leases flipping from headwind to tailwind"
X Link 2025-02-17T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@puppyeh1 Damn I hadnt looked at the January data yet those are some big jumps. Im already very long $Aer but maybe not long enough"
X Link 2025-02-17T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@puppyeh1 Will be interesting to see gain on sale numbers. People selling $AER because it's "at book" but not realizing the math behind repurchases at high 20's gain on sale margins. Nice to see the A330 lease numbers $AER has a lot of them up for re-leasing next [--] years"
X Link 2025-02-17T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AER $AL Narrowbody values up low teens (75% of AER fleet) widebody up 40% (25% of fleet) in last [--] months. With 2.4x leverage it means $AERs real book value up over 50% in the last year @FishtownCap yep. these are narrowbody lease rates I think Ishka was talking about widebody values +45% in a year and lease rates around $500k (for the 777-300ER for eg).but I know for a fact a few extensions have been priced closer to $1mm/month. https://t.co/n3fd2rnjNn @FishtownCap yep. these are narrowbody lease rates I think Ishka was talking about widebody values +45% in a year and lease rates around"
X Link 2025-02-18T00:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Feynman_19 @puppyeh1 Math. it gets you (seriously I did the exercise it's not intuitive.) Very eager to see the gain on sale numbers for Q4. These may be in the 30%'s in [----] wild"
X Link 2025-02-19T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@InvestorTobacco @Jonas_Haraldson @joeriwestland @christankerfund Ok what has the US sent to Ukraine And how much has the EU spent If Zelenskyy is very popular why not hold elections"
X Link 2025-02-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@RogueWayve @Jonas_Haraldson @joeriwestland @christankerfund Answer my above question name a conflict since WWII where US involvement made the world better"
X Link 2025-02-19T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MattJRothschild @puppyeh1 Constant age is the standard industry way to understand how assets are holding their value"
X Link 2025-02-20T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FIHL previous reserve balance was for half of this"
X Link 2025-02-20T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BRK What I expected except GEICO BNSF and OpCO's down YoY BHE meh (2023 had wildfires.) But GEICO is crushing it. Wasn't impressed last year because they cut ad spend and lost policies; Policies just grew in 2nd half Golden age for auto insurers What names do we like Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRKB Earnings thoughts: maybe Buffett is bearish because of his own business results but it turns out thats partially because theyve all been run worse since he bought them I have $11.4B in OpCo income (with a $1.6B FX tailwind) so $44B in earnings Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRKB Earnings thoughts:"
X Link 2025-02-22T13:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BRK Berkshire Hathaway. I've been critical of Todd Combs in the past. and he may not be a good person to work for. But the results at GEICO have been impressive with policy holders growing in 2nd half. @ohcapideas My opinion on him has improved. Results are results. I was critical last year with GEICO's results because the bottom line improvement came with 10%+ policies dropping and slashing ads. Anyone can do that. Well net income just doubled YoY and policies grew in the 2nd half. wow. @ohcapideas My opinion on him has improved. Results are results. I was critical last year with GEICO's"
X Link 2025-02-22T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After GEICO's FY24 let's talk home/auto insurers. $PGR pricey. $BRK pricey with worse businesses. Pass. $ALL Allstate 11x '25 EPS 9x '26 CEO touting 20%+ RoE's on new biz int. income+ float+ CA exposure OK. Why not I like low multiple steady stuff right now. $BRK What I expected except GEICO BNSF and OpCO's down YoY BHE meh (2023 had wildfires.) But GEICO is crushing it. Wasn't impressed last year because they cut ad spend and lost policies; Policies just grew in 2nd half Golden age for auto insurers What names do we like https://t.co/MGHIgAsJBT $BRK What I expected except GEICO BNSF"
X Link 2025-02-22T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SJOldValueGuy Different businesses short tail P&C/Auto versus longer tail life/annuity for $LNC and $PRU. $LNC almost went negative equity and blew up a few years ago. Different risk/reward levels here"
X Link 2025-02-22T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ElDawg360 I didn't mention anything about cash flow or CapEx. CapEx has run higher than D&A at BNSF forever that isn't new but not what I'm talking about. Earnings for all of Berkshire's businesses outside insurance are down from last year and [--] years ago. But Insurance is crushing it"
X Link 2025-02-22T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SameerKAgrawal I dont follow them but just looked at the chart heck of a breakout after almost a decade of consolidation"
X Link 2025-02-23T11:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@UnintendedCons5 @Amalteya3000 Weather has helped with heating oil and I expect more driving this Spring with additional return to office while a 268kbpd refinery in TX just closed. Im long $MPC"
X Link 2025-02-23T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DrDavidKass Everything major Berkshires bought since BNSF has been a disappointment if you really look it: Lubrizol $KHC PCC Pilot (Allegheny recent probably good but not enough time to measure.) Massive opportunity cost"
X Link 2025-02-23T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@teachemstoic @DougKass @fundstrat How does someone "making a lot of money buying treasury bonds in size.""
X Link 2025-02-23T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@andrewcoye Are we subtracting the taxes out of those In any case that number seems high to me"
X Link 2025-02-23T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@oraclealexx How did he do in the [----] and [----] bear markets This quip keeps getting repeated and isn't true and Berkshire is too big now to take advantage of dislocations like it did in the past"
X Link 2025-02-23T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@dcblocher Here's my money weighted return since I moved my accounts to Fidelity. Most of my picks have been on SeekingAlpha"
X Link 2025-02-23T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RAEckart Selling $AAPL smart in my opinion. But he's trapped in a lot of losers like $OXY and $KHC. Good luck with the market absorbing sales from those two"
X Link 2025-02-23T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ValuSeeker20 #1 $AAPL 35x #2 $AXP 20x (highest in a long time) #3 $BAC 12x #4 $KO 24x #5 $CVX 15x His top holdings aren't cheap"
X Link 2025-02-23T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BondKingJanusH1 Almost forgot that one. Ironically $IBM is doing well now"
X Link 2025-02-23T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RAEckart Yeah timing not great on the sale. But if I owned it I would have probably sold there or before. I wouldn't have bagheld $OXY $KHC and the rest of these"
X Link 2025-02-23T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@oraclealexx @TheDeadbeatLeb1 @jbulltard1 Agreed with all of this. So why own Berkshire at these levels"
X Link 2025-02-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@oraclealexx @TheDeadbeatLeb1 @jbulltard1 Youre double counting the earnings from the $300B cash and dividends from the equities. Its $38B without those. And thats with historically high underwriting profitability that likely wont last. If insurance normalizes (and it will) its more like $33B for no growth"
X Link 2025-02-24T01:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TraceyRyniec Yes too many trucks/truckers too much debt. Got it. Truck miles traveled has risen last [--] years. 331B in [----] 340B in [----] to 345B last year per the ATA. This has little to do with retail fuel margins. You're making up a narrative about Pilot that simply isn't true"
X Link 2025-02-24T18:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AER AerCap Q4 Earnings Estimate and FY25 Guidance Unless I'm missing something glaring I think $AER Q4 smashes earnings. Q3 had a $140 million credit provision that won't repeat and Q3 had the yearly low in aircraft sales. Analyzing Q4's mix of sales comparing with Q1-Q3 along I have total sales at $1.1 billion at a 25% gain of sale for $260m +160m over Q3. Then there 1.5% less shares. Q4 Estimate: $4 ($3.25 GAAP) BEFORE any insurance recoveries which I estimate at $100 million. FY25 Guidance Sales market/gain on sale significantly stronger this year especially for widebodies. They'll also"
X Link 2025-02-24T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is a thinly formed opinion I dont closely track these companies but theyre all deeply money losing. I know they point to certain metrics to show theyre doing great and the deep losses is because theyre growing but too often Ive seen companies like this reclassify expenses to dress up the metrics they want to show off and push the expenses somewhere else"
X Link 2025-02-25T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AER AerCap WOW. Crushed sstimates 2.07B revenue $3.31 EPS ($3.56 GAAP) 43% () gain on sale margin. (Is this even real) on $869m of assets sold. 16% RoE 4th quarter $1 billion new repurchase auth https://www.aercap.com/_assets/_2519144123db59ab43d82eba6be9f609/aercap/db/539/13836/earnings_release/AerCap+2024+Fourth+Quarter+Earnings+Release.pdf https://www.aercap.com/_assets/_2519144123db59ab43d82eba6be9f609/aercap/db/539/13836/earnings_release/AerCap+2024+Fourth+Quarter+Earnings+Release.pdf"
X Link 2025-02-26T12:08Z [----] followers, 25.3K engagements
"@andrewstepner Who knows Trades positioned for the move and selling $AL did something similar opened up dropped finished on the high +6% had a good next two days"
X Link 2025-02-26T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AER AerCap Earnings/20-F Takeaways Went through the 20-F in detail. Here's my takeaways: [--]. Basic Lease Rents May Jump $500m YoY. Top thing frustrating the bulls (IMO) is the lack of growth in basic lease rates. I think [----] fully turns the corner. Lease rents negatively impacted mostly by PBH rents and re-leases lower. But the trend from last year has really improved Q1: [----] Q2: [---] Q3: [---] Q4: +7 In [----] PBH leases as a % of the portfolio went from 5% to 2%. This tailwind should grow in [----] and could be a $350-400 million tailwind YoY. Add to that deliveries at higher lease rates and"
X Link 2025-02-27T17:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@J_M_G_B_ I think the normal seasonal uptick alone could pop this back to the low $20's but it's been week after two days worth of news that usually would pop shares higher"
X Link 2025-03-18T12:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As predicted Air Lease $AL recovered another $329m (totaling 424m) of their $791m losses. London trial pushing everyone to settle. I expect at least $5/share in recoveries for $AER in Q1. Should put book value right around the current price with lots of $ for repurchases. 🛫💵 Air Lease Recovers $328.5 Million in Russia Aircraft Insurance Payouts Total Now $424 Million Tickers of interest: $AL Full Story https://t.co/WhT3BPuTji https://t.co/NUnVDHYcXt 🛫💵 Air Lease Recovers $328.5 Million in Russia Aircraft Insurance Payouts Total Now $424 Million Tickers of interest: $AL Full Story"
X Link 2025-03-24T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AER AerCap I really want to sell some of the April $110's against my position it looks like free money but wow is there a lot of open interest for Apr versus nearly none for May when they announce. Interesting"
X Link 2025-04-02T14:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MPC Market Cap=$39.5B $MPLX Market Cap=$52B MPC 64% of MPLX= $33.3B So $6B for MPC's refining assets with $20+ cracks and yet another refinery closing"
X Link 2025-04-17T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AER AerCap Q1 EPS $3.48 / Adj $3.68 35% Gain on sale (2.3x book) BV $97.37 (1.07x BV) Didn't see the insurance recoveries I was hoping for. Very solid maybe even a little boring. Still very cheap (along with $AL) at 8x EPS selling assets 2.3x over book"
X Link 2025-04-30T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Ok so I believe you they're at book. But by the same line of thinking $AER is 30% below book $AL is 50% below book I still can't understand why $WLFC over these two names"
X Link 2025-05-02T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft. I tend to trade the same names almost like some type of twisted value market maker. I like $WLFC in the low 150s certainly at [---]. At first glance it may appear expensive at 2x Tangible Book and 9x earnings but that's because the earnings and book value need to be adjusted. https://t.co/AYhgaqy3T2 I tend to trade the same"
X Link 2025-05-03T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AL Air Lease Looks very strong at initial glance Q1 Adj. EPS $1.51 Beats $0.94 Sales $738.28M Beat $710.23M Another $226.7 million in cash insurance recoveries Book Value above $70 will be $73ish after Q2. This should be $60/share $AL Air Lease I'm swapping some of my $AER exposure into $AL. AerCap back to pre-April [--] price $AL still 8% below. AerCap earnings this week should be good and $AL could benefit. AL reports next week and I think they announce a repurchase and stop pops into the mid $50's. $AL Air Lease I'm swapping some of my $AER exposure into $AL. AerCap back to pre-April [--] price"
X Link 2025-05-05T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$WLFC -17% $AL +6% Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft. Agree that $WLFC is close to true BV and not pricey. Can't see how it's a buy w/ $AL at .7x book selling assets 14% above unlevered BV (50% above equity) and $AER at 1.1x selling 35% (100% above equity.) Remember the engines are 40+% of the total value on newer aircraft"
X Link 2025-05-06T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute + Propane distribution. Reports tonight. AmeriGas issues will be resolved. Very Low valuation vs peers. Owns valuable midstream assets in PA. Ran after last earnings could run again. One of my biggest winners in [----]. Oh and $HRB prob beats too"
X Link 2025-05-07T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI Beat and Raise. Adj. diluted EPS up 12% YoY (weather helped a bit.) Importantly showing stabilization/turnaround at AmeriGas. AmeriGas OpIncome $138 - $154m gallons sold increased [---] - [---]. Under 11x P/E for a utility and growing. Should re-rate back to $40+ easily. $UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute + Propane distribution. Reports tonight. AmeriGas issues will be resolved. Very Low valuation vs peers. Owns valuable midstream assets in PA. Ran after last earnings could run again. One of my biggest winners in [----]. Oh and $HRB prob beats too. https://t.co/n1htg7CsvM $UGI Corp Natural Gas Ute +"
X Link 2025-05-07T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't have an insane one like that. $UGI and $ET are closed. $UGI is silly and will be a boring walk up to $45 in the next [--] months. Every other electric or natural gas ute is 19x it's 11x. It should go back to 15x easily. $ET could yield 16% if it stopped growth capex. That's also pretty crazy"
X Link 2025-05-07T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UGI An investing lesson here: narrative vs. numbers. Investors freaked and dumped UGI down to 7x EPS because of AmeriGas problems ignoring that the other [--] divisions were doing well. New assets online new customers connected base rates increased. Looking at EPS numbers you barely notice the AmeriGas issues. [----] EPS Guide now $3-3.15 they'll beat and put up $3.20. Pre-Covid it traded at 20x. Post Covid/AmeriGas buyout (before problems surfaced) closer to 15x. Now it's still 10.5x despite turning the corner on AmeriGas and mild leverage issues. If it does 5% EPS growth (likely) and meanders"
X Link 2025-05-07T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI Call Most bullish I've heard since being an owner - AmeriGas attrition down to low single digits and leverage down to low 5's (from 6x.) Already paying back intercompany loan. - AmeriGas bonds trading in the low 6% range down from 9%+ a year+ ago - Highlighted a number of initiatives to improve profitability none of which require capital. - Utilities Midstream and UGI International all are performing well. - Could put up a $3.40+ EPS number next year with a decent AmeriGas turnaround Zero reason for this to be at 10-11x EPS. See "comps". $UGI An investing lesson here: narrative vs."
X Link 2025-05-08T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI last post for a while on the name; this goes into the set-and-forget part of my portfolio. 11x EPS compared to similar Ute/Midstream/other combo like $NJR at 16x and pure gas utes at 20x. This should re-rate back towards 15x in the next few years and earnings should grow $4 in [--] years or so. [--] year total return double for a utility. $UGI - UGI Corporation: A $50 Utility Stock On Sale For $35. The Sale May Not Last Much Longer. https://t.co/UER1HfnRKb #trading #finance #business $UGI - UGI Corporation: A $50 Utility Stock On Sale For $35. The Sale May Not Last Much Longer."
X Link 2025-05-10T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Arbtrader69 Yeah a lot of names like this you may not expect. Murphy USA similar"
X Link 2025-05-11T11:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AL Air Lease. This is a good time to ring the register and switch back to $AER. Book Value after subtracting prefs around $63-64 (thanks for those who corrected me) we're now at just a sub-10% discount. It was 40% a few weeks ago. $AER AerCap at a 16% premium BUT they're still due a lot of insurance claims. Once they receive those it's closer to a 5% premium. $AL Air Lease Looks very strong at initial glance Q1 Adj. EPS $1.51 Beats $0.94 Sales $738.28M Beat $710.23M Another $226.7 million in cash insurance recoveries Book Value above $70 will be $73ish after Q2. This should be $60/share"
X Link 2025-05-20T14:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Suicide95518428 I saw this with my finger on the sell button of the $MPC I picked up at $125 for the reasons you describe but Surely the swath of refinery closers in the US should support valuations here Plus with $MPC the $MPLX is 80% of the value"
X Link 2025-05-28T12:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@orrdavid Its less compelling here short term. I have some in taxable that Ill keep but I flipped other shares from to $AL and now back"
X Link 2025-06-04T10:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UGI $AMZN Amazon to invest $20 billion in PA to expand cloud computing infrastructure and advance AI innovation Salem Township and Falls Township are the first communities identified as sites for these future innovation campuses. UGI Corp provides NG service to both towns https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-pennsylvania-investment-cloud-infrastructure-ai-innovation https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-pennsylvania-investment-cloud-infrastructure-ai-innovation"
X Link 2025-06-09T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$KHC $SJM I've been bearish on CPG forever; but are these a buy at this point $KHC at a forever low w/ sub [--] P/E 6%+ yield etc. Paid off 35% of debt in past [--] years ($30B down to $19B now.)"
X Link 2025-06-10T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RogueWayve @MadisonLackey44 If only investing was as easy as picking "the cheapest." $DAC is in a commodity (ship) environment facing an potential oversupply (overblown and not in their ship sizes but) $AL is in a 2-producer market facing a persistent shortfall with 7+ year leases"
X Link 2025-06-20T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@retaox $HRB going to grow EPS about 15% a year between OpIncome growth and repurchases and available for 10x"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 Largely my thesis when I bought a ton of $HRB at 6x FCF. Turns out they had some growth to go with it"
X Link 2025-07-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$DAC Danaos - I think mgmt perfidy is take-private in the $130 range. - Rates have strengthened since May & Red Sea transits likely heading down after [--] awful attacks - There's a vessel oversupply but it's mostly in the ultra-large ship class less so where $DAC and $GSL focus $dac shipping market has held up so much better than expected and Danaos has just gotten cheaper and cheaper over the last two years not a [----] torqued equity stub situation but the margin of safety seems truly enormous now short of the worst possible mgmt perfidy $dac shipping market has held up so much better than"
X Link 2025-07-14T15:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UGI UGI Corp Seems like good news for a big PA gas utility trading at 11x. 2nd announcement today Coreweave also investing $6B in a Lancaster PA data center (UGI Service area.) https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/coreweave-plans-6bn-data-center-in-lancaster-pennsylvania/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/coreweave-plans-6bn-data-center-in-lancaster-pennsylvania/"
X Link 2025-07-15T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@phoenixvalue Hahaha. What hes got a new ETF After how good $Roro and $jojo have done"
X Link 2025-07-15T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BourbonCap Check out $HRB"
X Link 2025-07-21T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing anything w/ short interest let's peak at $HRB which squeezed after last Q4's earnings still has 9% SI with this year's Q4 50% better than last due to a tax benefit most of the bear case weakened + shares still at 10x FCF"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HRB While $XLF +25% YoY $HRB is flat & down 13% from Q3 earnings despite [--]. Repurchasing $400m in shares [--]. IRS Free File shut down [--]. Taxes again changing in FY26 with more itemizers w/ $40k SALT cap [--]. $INTU at YTD highs [--]. Had a very good tax season w/ likely Q4 beat"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HRB Q4 Beat CEO Jeff Jones basically has told you Q4 will be very good. Q3 Pre-tax earnings up 5.7% with 5% less S/O. Favorable tax rate this year will provide another [--] cents EPS/$90m for repurchases"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HRB Q1 & Q2 Repurchases HRB returns 100% of FCF to shareholders thru divs+buybacks. They spent $430m last year but this year it could be closer to $600m enough to retire 8% of shares at $56/share. They do not repurchase during tax season; most happen in Aug Sep and Nov"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HRB In summary: the most boring compounder on earth [--]. Half market EPS multiple 10x FCF returning all to shareholders [--]. Could squeeze again after Q4 [--]. A lot of repurchases coming very soon in a short window Please share and/or comment. What do we think"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AER AerCap $2.83 in-line or small beat. I would say "boring in line quarter" with a low amount of sales (already reported) but a big guidance raise for a company that usually tip-toes guidance up by whatever they beat by. Share count down 10% YoY. [----] likely $13-14 EPS"
X Link 2025-07-30T11:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AER guided - Core earnings (the part that Wall St cares about allegedly) up from $8.50 to $9.50-10.50 - Q3 & Q4 sales both Q1 - Net Int. Margin growing Q3 into [--] FY25 EPS looking closer to $14 FY26 $16+ Long AER short $FTAI pair trade getting unwound today"
X Link 2025-07-30T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SmallCapVal Not sure. For what its worth $MUSA revalued a lot lower recently"
X Link 2025-08-02T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ToddWenning @SmallCapVal $MUSA reporting good results Trucking miles driven hasn't dropped much if at all and $MUSA also reported fuel margins up YoY. I need to dig deeper after some coffee but these don't look like macro problems"
X Link 2025-08-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DAC At good rates too. 88% contracted for [--]. Hopefully we see even more through year end. Bulk turned a small profit and should see a good Q3. Cash +$100m net debt down $67m They bought back a ton in April hopefully turn that back on soon. @FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y from Apr '26-Apr '28 -Juliet +1Y from Sep '25-Aug '26 -Dalian +2Y from Mar '26-Apr '28 -Monaco -3M from Dec '26-Sep '26 @FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y"
X Link 2025-08-04T21:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ET Energy Transfer A $5.3B pipeline that wasn't even on their proposed project list Remember the guidance for sub $1 billion CapEx from a few years back That was fun. https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-announces-natural-gas-pipeline-project-serve https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-announces-natural-gas-pipeline-project-serve"
X Link 2025-08-06T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@puppyeh1 You need to subtract out the $900m in prefs at $AL. Its $AER at [----] (close enough) but $AL is $65 book value net of the prefs so .84x not .75x"
X Link 2025-08-07T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HRB H&R Block reports Tuesday. I am the only nerd on earth that's excited for it. Asset-light recession proof share cannibal at 10x EPS growing NI 5% + repurchasing 6%+ shares/year in a market where Tobacco co's trade 12x Popped after Q4 last year and could again. Why not H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing anything w/ short interest let's peak at $HRB which squeezed after last Q4's earnings still has 9% SI with this year's Q4 50% better than last due to a tax benefit most of the bear case weakened + shares still at 10x FCF H&R Block $HRB : New Old Idea While we squeezing"
X Link 2025-08-08T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BasedStatistic Hes never been my favorite he wasted an absurd amount on Wave. Otherwise did a decent job although I believe theres a ton of fat to trim. Mostly a nothing burger I think"
X Link 2025-08-12T01:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB Earnings: - Total revenue of $3.8billion increased by $150.6 million or 4.2% primarily due to an increase in overall net average charge (NAC) and higher company-owned return volumes in the U.S. partially offset by lower interest and fee income on Emerald Advance. - https://t.co/JnkVSLUOMN $HRB Earnings: - Total revenue"
X Link 2025-08-12T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HRB Guiding for $400m of repurchases again. 5% EBITDA growth + 6% repurchases + 3% dividend. Mid double digit grower and if they tighten up expenses (is $300m if marketing really needed) it's got a lot more upside. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m"
X Link 2025-08-12T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HRB -Sounds like CEO Jones is actually just retiring. -Sounds like the FY26 guide for $4.75-5 is conservative -Talk about tailwinds to control spending $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll repurchase another 6% of shares outstanding. Better control of OpEx needed and this thing takes off. $HRB H&R Block Q4 EPS miss was on the one-time tax benefit that got shifted out. EBITDA guide for FY26 is +50m P/E now under [--] if share price stays in this range they'll"
X Link 2025-08-12T21:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HRB H&R Block so the answer to "Why not" was "we didn't get the tax credit we guided to and expenses were high." Mea Culpa - my first miss of the year. That all said: 5% EBITDA guide for next year is strong. At current prices they repurchase 7% of shares. Dividend yield is getting respectable: 3.5%. They did a great job of managing expenses last year and most revenue growth dropped to the bottom line and they struggled this year. Still think this deserves more than a 9-10x multiple when it can grow MSD and is returning all the cash. $HRB H&R Block reports Tuesday. I am the only nerd on earth"
X Link 2025-08-13T14:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Id be having such a good week if $HRB didnt miss a layup (at least theyre going to do $250m in repurchases at lower prices.) May add to $CNC and $ELV tomorrow. They could both double in [--] months. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more"
X Link 2025-08-14T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@okieinvestor @Citrini7 You long $UGI with me Vince 😂"
X Link 2025-08-15T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@sceptic_cap @CapitalObserver Best run but what metric"
X Link 2025-08-19T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"MLP Bros anyone have an opinion on OneOK $OKE here Down 35% from November highs under 12x [----] EPS estimates while $KMI and $WMB sport far high valuations"
X Link 2025-08-22T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I just dont see it. Its a leading company with reasonable leverage. If COMAC ever ramps I think its $BA and Airbus lose it becomes a [--] player market instead of [--]. Most westerners will never fly on a Chinese built plane. Actually kicking the tires on $OKE now and $ET is a max position. Im worried pipelines and LNG export are getting overbuilt https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959210551743324584 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959210551743324584"
X Link 2025-08-23T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CapitalObserver Yeah that and $ELV. Hopefully $CI hit the gas on some repurchases under $300"
X Link 2025-08-24T18:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@puppyeh1 Wow tiny premium. Surprised"
X Link 2025-09-02T10:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Air Lease $AL getting private for $65/share all cash offer. Good winner for me this year but I already swapped back to $AER. And there it is. $AL getting taken off the board as predicted. This is a decent winner and hard to complain re the outcome but the price looks very light - both in the context of PnL trajectory and rel valuation (look at $AER). So prob worth sticking around to see if And there it is. $AL getting taken off the board as predicted. This is a decent winner and hard to complain re the outcome but the price looks very light - both in the context of PnL trajectory and rel"
X Link 2025-09-02T10:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SmallCapVal Yeah it's not a great price. Many holders might be happy since $AL traded in the $40's until the last [--] months but there's little deal premium"
X Link 2025-09-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DOLE David Murdock passed away in June family now can sell tax free with stepped up basis. Good buying opportunity for a defensive name that's been doing well. I bought a small position this morning. If you're interested in owning $DOLE it is currently on 10% off sale for a non-fundamental reason (a legacy owner unloading all its shares) The legacy owner (David Murdock 13% equity owner) is in his late 90s has no role whatsoever in the business and has long expressed https://t.co/rZUHduQJiE If you're interested in owning $DOLE it is currently on 10% off sale for a non-fundamental reason (a"
X Link 2025-09-04T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@valuesci I think they all still do quite well from here. $CI is the least risky IMO $ELV a close 2nd $CNC has (or at least had. it's up 35% from my buy) the most upside"
X Link 2025-09-11T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CNC Centene Sep-12-2025 Barclays analyst Andrew Mok maintains Centene (CNC) with a Equal-Weight and raises the price target from $33 to $35. I'm not above taking a victory lap. Centene $CNC up almost 30% from a week ago when the analyst with [--] years of investing experience cut the price target. I'm not above taking a victory lap. Centene $CNC up almost 30% from a week ago when the analyst with [--] years of investing experience cut the price target"
X Link 2025-09-12T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BearBullDebate You're likely correct but remember $CRCL opened at $35 and then ran to $200 so there could still be opportunity"
X Link 2025-09-12T15:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@green_pumpsie @SayNoToTrading I was speaking to the ones in the HC space (Andrew Mok). it's wild the difference though. In the aircraft sector Jamie Baker is excellent on $AER and $AL calls. Some of the others ask such inane questions you can watch management have to hold back making fun of them"
X Link 2025-09-12T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nums_over_narrs @GoForGrubes2 I hear everything you're saying I just have a hard time viewing anything at 25x as defensive. but I hear you. If you like water take a look at $ARTNA. Not long myself but on my watch list"
X Link 2025-09-12T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nums_over_narrs @GoForGrubes2 Yeah I get that and I agree. I think using long term fixed coupon bonds as "defensive" risks above trend inflation being the norm. I like the geographies were $ARTNA serves fairly pro-business and growing"
X Link 2025-09-12T21:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@OSA_Rochester Whered we see the news for this one"
X Link 2025-09-22T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SayNoToTrading @TSOH_Investing I added $ALL last week (2% position) and might increase it. Too cheap everyone selling the boring stocks to chase tech"
X Link 2025-09-22T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Wrote up my latest thoughts on $AER AerCap today. Easy money made but I see 20% returns for the next few years. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825457-aercap-still-has-plenty-of-upside-ahead https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825457-aercap-still-has-plenty-of-upside-ahead"
X Link 2025-09-24T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Tintincapital My basic issue with all of these stocks is that they still aren't cheap enough given the headwinds. Funny I just flew out of EDI on Monday and was on Islay (where $DEO has some plants) a few days earlier"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Tintincapital You're giving the example of where this goes wrong: consumer staples. People bid them up to 30x and now they're 10x once their staying power showed weakness. No position here either way I just think this is an tough way to make money"
X Link 2025-09-24T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $OKE - 5% position. We're still doing this AI power thing right Even after the acquisitions $OKE still very long NG. OBBB beneficiary still guiding to mid/high single digit EBITDA growth. Just too cheap vs peers: reminder $KMI which hasn't grown EBITDA in [--] years"
X Link 2025-09-26T13:42Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"$UNFI United Foods Hey sometimes its just math @kingdomcapadv Implies 585-615 adj EBITDA without the incident and an exit rate higher than that. If theyre guiding for 2.5x by YE26 they must be very confident in it and likely plan to hit it sooner. Implies a $700+ ebitda number for next year @kingdomcapadv Implies 585-615 adj EBITDA without the incident and an exit rate higher than that. If theyre guiding for 2.5x by YE26 they must be very confident in it and likely plan to hit it sooner. Implies a $700+ ebitda number for next year"
X Link 2025-09-30T11:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AER AerCap Casually repurchased [---] million shares @ $119.95/share. No big deal Another $500m in settlements (this was known.) Sold [--] aircraft including [--] 777's. Big sales quarter. Likely over $4 in EPS in Q3. If it doesn't spike I'm adding . https://www.aercap.com/investors/news-events/news/detail/611/aercap-leased-purchased-and-sold-146-assets-in-the-third https://www.aercap.com/investors/news-events/news/detail/611/aercap-leased-purchased-and-sold-146-assets-in-the-third"
X Link 2025-10-03T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hellmi96 Possible. Ive owned $KMI off and on and I passed when it was $17 because I thought it was pricey"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ArneUlland @iWard95008698 I personally know one of the Presidents at a big $DHR business and shes a toxic witch that destroys everything she touches. That they hired her makes the stock uninvestable to me"
X Link 2025-10-05T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Starter position on Harrow $HROW here. Not sure if this is a long or short term play for me but it's down a lot in a week on what I consider minor news (and my entire career/ day job is in an FDA regulated industry. Probably bounces into week end. $HROW IR is contacting investors. Turns out nothing material has occurred. Mgmt was confused about the share price until investors explained the latest conspiracy theory. Now that they know they are correcting the record. Who could have seen that coming Who 😂🤣 $HROW IR is contacting investors. Turns out nothing material has occurred. Mgmt was"
X Link 2025-10-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@siyul I think so. I wish I understood this industry better. Them $DOW others all at multidecade lows"
X Link 2025-10-11T14:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@siyul Some businesses are easy to understand ( $HRB $UNFI) others require real industry knowledge to be consistently successful (biotech.) This is probably somewhere in the middle"
X Link 2025-10-11T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@christankerfund Still having trouble understanding how Harpex is this strong while Spot indexes (SCFI) are so weak especially with all the capacity yet to be delivered in the next few years"
X Link 2025-10-12T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PGR Progessive -8% seems overdone considering they did "too well" in Florida. Multiple on the best insurance company not looking so high anymore. Added over 4m policies (12%) YoY. $PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their personal lines department because they were too profitable (above statutory limits) and have to credit money back to policyholders as a result. This credit ballooned https://t.co/hqbGXfkJQj $PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@bigcoveranch I have to believe a ton of this is tax loss selling. the valuation difference and price action between $OKE and $KMI and $WMB is wild"
X Link 2025-10-15T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@catapultcap Id be more interested but the leverage scares me. Theyre only going to be able to pay down $100-125m on an $380m EBITDA guide. Need to see when growth goes positive again. That said price action is bad I think in general people are dumping for tax losses"
X Link 2025-10-16T11:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting I'll do a bit more digging. Would be helpful to hear comments on recent trends. Maybe this has the best upside but this general theme is prevelant across a lot of consumer focused companies. Probably a lot of opportunties in this space. $SON now trading a 6.5x FY26 EPS 5%+ yield 3.5x leverage"
X Link 2025-10-16T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CapitalObserver It's just a question of upside to these numbers. $ELV and $CNC probably at earnings bottoms here and get dramatically better next year into [--]. (I own both plus $CI.) I'd like to see if $CI repurchased shares in Q3"
X Link 2025-10-16T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I know this has been covered and it may not mean much but the equal weight $RSP hasn't gone anywhere since last November. Extreme fear with $SPY 2% off all-time highs is comedy https://t.co/4lSFAHBfdC Extreme fear with $SPY 2% off all-time highs is comedy https://t.co/4lSFAHBfdC"
X Link 2025-10-16T20:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnclePennyBagz3 Interesting call - why has it been getting hammered lately Strange"
X Link 2025-10-20T17:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnclePennyBagz3 Same levels now than it was in [----] with bond yields higher and PBI stock at $3"
X Link 2025-10-20T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnclePennyBagz3 @kingdomcapadv $PBI's profitability has to do with mail volume"
X Link 2025-10-20T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOG down 5% on the OpenaI browser rumor/announcement for the 5th time Stupid theres plenty of other browsers already. $GOOG: OpenAI new browser Fundamentally Google will probably still do fine given the strength of the other segments but do note that OpenAI's most probable and scaleable business model will be Ads and with Ad dollars fixed someone might have to lose share. Could be $GOOG https://t.co/kuTKvFJdGm $GOOG: OpenAI new browser Fundamentally Google will probably still do fine given the strength of the other segments but do note that OpenAI's most probable and scaleable business"
X Link 2025-10-21T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kingdomcapadv I think that math checks out. That said ran from $24 - $43 in [--] months so probably due for some profit taking"
X Link 2025-10-22T14:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Tomorrow is going to be interesting for $UNH and $CNC. UNH only down 1% while CNC down 7% I don't think that makes a lot of sense"
X Link 2025-10-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KoolturaContent @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj I worry that this $MOH print will reset expectations for the entire sector on pace of recovery or when they will recover. I lightened up exposure AH and may sell more tomorrow. See better opportunities in the P/C insurance space now that these are all WAY off their lows"
X Link 2025-10-23T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CNC $ELV $UNH $CI I lightened up some exposure AH and I may lighten more tomorrow. Maybe Molina $MOH is a one-off but that was ugly. I think these move further down before heading back up. I like $ALL $PGR $CB better here. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a year potentially more. Back in $CNC at $25.5. Also long $ELV at [-----] and $CI at $274. 2% positions each. Coffee can positions that I'll try not to pay attention to I think they're all up 30%+ in a"
X Link 2025-10-23T02:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Literally every one of these have guided down already. Everyone assumed they were conservative and last q's guidance was the bottom. $MOH just blew up that theory and threw cold water on [----] being better. Could be a $MOH problem but I wouldn't bet on it"
X Link 2025-10-23T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stkmstr22 I thought that was the case for all of them to be honest. Take the lump and build from there. So the size of the $MOH miss surprised me plus $ELV having decent results and still selling off. $CI last quarter reaffirmed guidance and got smoked. I think we go risk-off tomorrow"
X Link 2025-10-23T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@wabuffo I hate that I missed $GTX. my kind of stock"
X Link 2025-10-23T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Want to share the numbers you're seeing $UNH did $24 in [----] (peak year.) They're supposed to do $16 this year. That seems like 33% to me. In addition $UNH involved in financial shenanigans selling businesses and booking as part of normal earnings"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Gotcha. We'll see. Holding up very well today. Hopefully $MOH is a one-off"
X Link 2025-10-23T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@allen_drewe @SayNoToTrading @stocksandbjj Could be correct. I think the more concerning part of the $MOH report is the guidance. That said expectations have probably lowered here in the last day"
X Link 2025-10-23T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@a_living_fossil @GardinerIsland So they did spend $275m in the last year for [--] new ships but unlike $DAC theyre selling older ones at nice gains too. 15% off their recent highs and with the charter market strengthening last few weeks its a buy"
X Link 2025-10-24T10:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@andrewcoye I added a small $CB position this week (post earnings while the stock was flat.)"
X Link 2025-10-25T11:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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