# ![@Fenmagne Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::760557876385615872.png) @Fenmagne Fen

Fen posts on X about $ce, $hfg, $dow, debt the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::760557876385615872/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::760557876385615872/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +597%
- [--] Month [-------] +358%
- [--] Months [-------] -53%
- [--] Year [---------] -93%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::760557876385615872/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::760557876385615872/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -53%
- [--] Months [---] +108%
- [--] Year [---] +351%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::760557876385615872/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::760557876385615872/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +4.30%
- [--] Month [---] +56%
- [--] Months [---] +237%
- [--] Year [---] +660%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::760557876385615872/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::760557876385615872/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 

**Social topic influence**
[$ce](/topic/$ce), [$hfg](/topic/$hfg), [$dow](/topic/$dow), [debt](/topic/debt), [$bpost](/topic/$bpost), [$gxi](/topic/$gxi) #1, [$ats](/topic/$ats), [$wbd](/topic/$wbd), [$wln](/topic/$wln), [$din](/topic/$din)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@siyul](/creator/undefined) [@notfomo](/creator/undefined) [@joedoeknowsguy](/creator/undefined) [@bananacapital](/creator/undefined) [@pjtugby](/creator/undefined) [@valueinvest12](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@johndoeknowsguy](/creator/undefined) [@jvalue171769006](/creator/undefined) [@davidkatunaric](/creator/undefined) [@capitalatrisk23](/creator/undefined) [@kab604](/creator/undefined) [@banana_capital_](/creator/undefined) [@equitybrian](/creator/undefined) [@yankybanash](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@lostanalyst](/creator/undefined) [@huntforcatalyst](/creator/undefined) [@abel8375](/creator/undefined) [@condensedi](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Celanese Corporation (CE)](/topic/$ce) [Dow Inc (DOW)](/topic/$dow) [Alltoscan (ATS)](/topic/$ats) [Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN)](/topic/$din) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY)](/topic/$psky) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) [Paramount Global (PARA)](/topic/$para) [British American Tobacco (BTI)](/topic/$bti) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Flagstar Financial, Inc. (FLG)](/topic/$flg) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Centene Corp (CNC)](/topic/$cnc) [MyShell Token (SHELL)](/topic/$shell) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [FAME AI (FMC)](/topic/$fmc) [CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/$cvs) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Evotec SE (EVO)](/topic/$evo) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Central African Republic Meme (CAR)](/topic/$car) [Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)](/topic/$pm) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@Maksim_P_M Did you sell What happened with this investment I loved the analysis It would be fun to update this :P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1767541773771964906)  2024-03-12T13:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@david_katunaric @WinstonV99 Join the subreddit r/paramountglobal it was mentioned and discussed there :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1773291624660963513)  2024-03-28T10:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@banana_capital_ I think the same. But you're not afraid of Warren's comments on Streaming Did you look into when they have to pay back the debt How many in the next [--] years Next [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1790904424539263458)  2024-05-16T00:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @banana_capital_ How do you know that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1791097057287029162)  2024-05-16T13:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@one_dunkirk @KatieKeithBarn2 @xai"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1792274482582720949)  2024-05-19T19:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Investmentideen I suggest $PARA easy [--] in [--] years if not sold. If sold it should still be a 2X but might be earlier. Once streaming goes internationally FCF positive in [----] there won't be any reason to not double. It's on path to 100M subs. With an ARPU of 8$ that's 10B - Cap at 8B rn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1792980628322869450)  2024-05-21T18:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GuyAdamiFan @cperruna Yeah they bought before IPO at [---] (primary market)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1797053866908799174)  2024-06-01T23:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@value_invest12 10-11% of the market cap bought back a year is massive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1800272573110038856)  2024-06-10T21:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@david_katunaric So basically KKR Apollo AND Bain capital have express interest in Paramount assets and the company is trading at [---] Price to [----] Earnings What's the downside at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1800676853172011342)  2024-06-11T23:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dividendology I said that in [--] it crashed and I bought tons in [--] like Meta and Netflix now able to 100% fund my post graduate Master's degree in finance. NFT selling at mil bitcoin higher than ever SPAC and IPOs everywhere tells you everything. [--] is similar worst is NVDA sold in Jan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1802463547751907706)  2024-06-16T22:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Clear top signal. Nvidia own it don't trade it so far so good Nvidia own it don't trade it so far so good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1803152442680381748)  2024-06-18T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @banana_capital_ Yeah I have but to me the thing we will rembember from the 2010's is maybe the Avengers and Endgame. In the 2020's we will remember the start of the Dune universe and the proper reboot of the DCEU into the DCU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1809289093664108569)  2024-07-05T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @banana_capital_ I mean as a % of your portfolio. For me $WBD is only 2.2% while $PARA is 12.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1809293895462703327)  2024-07-05T18:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@patientinvestt [--] P/E for a company with high competition and losing out on the healthy trends and the NOVO nordisk weight loss thing There is no margin of safety here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1811177088931553522)  2024-07-10T23:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FromValue Valuation is as crucial as a company's quality. It's like the price of a car: paying a million for a BMW isn't wise and passing up a [----] Ferrari for $10000 is a missed opportunity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1812881216913154176)  2024-07-15T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney But is $NYCB a buy now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1813531424974352894)  2024-07-17T11:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"To me that sounds like a top sign people do not care about the valuation and the fundamentals anymore. This company is valued at [--] times sales for like 30% annual revenue growth OK good company but valuation through the roof tbh. 3-6x over intrinsic valuation. [----] Tesla V2 Literally $crwd crashed half the country today and you pigs bought it up $40 without their ceo even saying sorry. I hope crowdstrike bulls lose everything. https://t.co/N0RbzBNFWk Literally $crwd crashed half the country today and you pigs bought it up $40 without their ceo even saying sorry. I hope crowdstrike bulls lose"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1814438037251862994)  2024-07-19T23:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy Gays and women support Gaza people because they know what it feels to be marginalized oppressed and stripped of basic human rights. They empathize with the struggles for freedom dignity and equality that resonate deeply with their own histories and ongoing battles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1816266914257072480)  2024-07-25T00:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy Why not just buy the stock You're running low on cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1820523736724131921)  2024-08-05T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EquityBrian Lift sounds nice actually what do you think of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1823853641578545278)  2024-08-14T22:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EquityBrian Why do people still buy the stock at $4 billion then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1823857693175820765)  2024-08-14T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EquityBrian Do you think Tepper is not buying long-term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1823860208856392000)  2024-08-14T23:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EquityBrian He got 2.7% of the company at this point. It's quite a massive stake. He must think there's upside to the stock which could mean it's not actually a winner-take-all market. Maybe it is but only locally and in some cases Lyft is beating Uber"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1823861467718066483)  2024-08-14T23:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BigBreakfastLob @blondesnmoney What does this imply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1824589148511953059)  2024-08-16T23:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CCM_Brett @Elarchy124 @finchat_io [--] P/E is expensive for tobacco though I know PM is a great company well managed quite stable and anti recession + seeing growth from ZYN but [--] P/E is not exactly "Dirt cheap". Is it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1825608619485966513)  2024-08-19T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@david_katunaric Alstom: About [--] hours. Great company not complicated merged with Bombardier rail - Lost 75% due to FUD. Bought a bit already up 36% in [--] months. AG Mortgage Investment trust: About [--] months a mREIT - Sold at a loss of 55% after [--] years (small position though)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1826726538848436543)  2024-08-22T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Vanderberen @StanphylCap From what I gathered from the comments: [--]. Huge debt [--]. Short term recession risks impacts car sales [--]. Part. Owned by the gouvernement [--]. EV risks [--]. Chinese cheap cars risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1832317907390628305)  2024-09-07T07:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@missingmiddle But Berkshire is in for the price arbitrage due to the restructuring from what I gathered given that it is a very complex one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1836067856242655585)  2024-09-17T15:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@banana_capital_ Investing in large-cap US companies today carries significant risks potentially necessitating a reassessment of whether to sell our existing large-cap assets. Do you agree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1839314910532219102)  2024-09-26T14:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy Are you missing out on Europe especially the UK It seems like everyone is focused on the US because they think European stocks are flat in the long term. But if you reinvest the dividends some of them are very profitable and currently trading at very interesting valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1839321910980882471)  2024-09-26T15:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy Except if growth stops - Very dangerous game to expect too much growth. At current valuation a lot of growth is already expected. I'd prob start a pos in this company at [--] times earnings given the past growth if I think it will continue. That gives a valuation of about 5.2B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1840284167721927063)  2024-09-29T06:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@value_invest12 Solid analysis of OUE REIT's prime Singapore assets and dividend yield but it overlooks key risks like debt refinancing office market shifts and long-term dividend sustainability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1840876983476998204)  2024-09-30T22:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nvidia reached the top of its valuation this exact day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1840878442209775992)  2024-09-30T22:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Currently assessing whether investing in $SAVE was a bad idea or if I should double on it. I think it was a bad idea too risky. But will do more studying. Currently down 569%. Only represent 0.7% of my portfolio though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1842288498511892624)  2024-10-04T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thinking about selling $META. 1.5T is a lot when they make 40B a year. I like their future prospects and I usually sell overvalued stocks too early. Still Im up 350% since I bought in '22 and even though its intrinsic value has grown I think nows the right time to cash in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1842637530031608290)  2024-10-05T18:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy Feels good to read that when you're long $BTI and have no position in $PM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1843785813261529090)  2024-10-08T22:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tinystockninja I like the idea and the research - I'm a bit scared of Sandra's turnaround abilities + whether the net margins were just meant to turn negative against strong competitors like Amazon & Chewy. I fail to see the moat making it a risky bet even if the payout could be massive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1845897951576576043)  2024-10-14T18:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@finchat_io Damn this stock is a snack I wish I owned it :( would buy at $14B valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1846337223932739878)  2024-10-15T23:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Vysse36 Hear about stuff happening in the world = investment idea or directly undervalued stocks somewhere - due diligence - follow till right price or direct buying. Follow up till [--]. Investment thesis no good no mo or overvalued where I am not confortable getting above market returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1847757250489679955)  2024-10-19T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheAlphaThought Try lowest dividend possible because over [---] of dividend I need to pay taxes while capital gain taxes are 0% in Belgium. But it currently pays for phone + internet bills aha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1847764869698801990)  2024-10-19T22:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Sound like a similar situation to what's currently happening with Bumble & Tinder. $BMBL & $MTCH Netflix stock dropped 75% because of this Investing is hard https://t.co/VGkKrUA6DR Netflix stock dropped 75% because of this Investing is hard https://t.co/VGkKrUA6DR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1848152627281875014)  2024-10-21T00:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@YankyBanash I think $SAVE could be a good company and definitely undervalued if they do not go bankrupt. What is the bankruptcy risk if the economy continues to do well I am thinking of doubling my position now that they have stabilized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1848464904841236675)  2024-10-21T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Coburn420D But $BTI is trading at [--] P/E tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1849450330578096590)  2024-10-24T13:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy I once knew someone who visited a place after a terrorist attack because prices were low and security was tightened. $BA feels similar long termcheap now due to past issues but poised for better quality ahead. Buying now assumes the worst is behind them though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1849505042614628426)  2024-10-24T17:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ColtStock What's your thesis and cost basis on $WBA I'm considering it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1850629504718532647)  2024-10-27T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My current average cost basis for $WBD is $7.26 USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1854586889434808689)  2024-11-07T18:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My Average cost basis in $META is [---] USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1854587390016278827)  2024-11-07T18:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Sold my only distributing S&P [---] ETF which I started buying between April and October [----] for a profit between 112% and 71%. Market is seems kind of euphoric and overvalued - Will look for opportunities elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1859685710766469200)  2024-11-21T19:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bought $CBL here @ $2958. Position is 4.48% of invested portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1860040150975472039)  2024-11-22T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This will decrease movie production costs and is one of the reasons I am so bullish on movie making-businesses $WBD $PARA $DIS - Sad I had to sell Netflix but valuation was through the roof. SAMURAI vs. MetaAI's SAM [--] Traditional visual object tracking struggles in crowded fast-moving or self-occluded scenes as does SAM2. Meet SAMURAI: a completely open-source adaptation of the Segment Anything Model for zero-shot visual tracking Here's why it's a https://t.co/4Gx7mWDfba SAMURAI vs. MetaAI's SAM [--] Traditional visual object tracking struggles in crowded fast-moving or self-occluded scenes as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1860316286955212849)  2024-11-23T13:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I have never used Twitter more since Musk's acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1860375980985991325)  2024-11-23T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DMckdani @SupBagholder You do if you are a $META stock holder who wants a stellar quarter 😝"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1863007548686717406)  2024-11-30T23:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Portfolio performance since inception in March [----] is about 22.13% p.a. Given that I've had huge cash flows incoming as I grew it the total profit compared to the total incoming cash flow is 56%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1863025010698244582)  2024-12-01T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Profits mostly come from Meta(22-) Nvidia(20-24) S&P ETFs (20/22-24) Hellofresh(24-) Netflix (22-24) and Berkshire (20/21-)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1863026438128947240)  2024-12-01T01:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bad day to be long $WBD JIM CRAMER JUST LISTED [--] STOCKS HE THINKS WILL DO WELL IN DECEMBER - CNBC - Tesla $TSLA - Palantir $PLTR - $AXON - Texas Pacific $TPL - Tapestry $TPR - EPAM Systems $EPAM - Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD - Vistra $VST - McKesson $MCK - $EQT https://t.co/Gmil5KVVsq JIM CRAMER JUST LISTED [--] STOCKS HE THINKS WILL DO WELL IN DECEMBER - CNBC - Tesla $TSLA - Palantir $PLTR - $AXON - Texas Pacific $TPL - Tapestry $TPR - EPAM Systems $EPAM - Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD - Vistra $VST - McKesson $MCK - $EQT https://t.co/Gmil5KVVsq"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864099911563677821)  2024-12-04T00:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@banana_capital_ Agreed. The only issue is the debt incurred for the acquisition which will be a real problem if they continue to face an economic slowdown. We need to estimate the risk of asset flash sales but management is cutting costs and looking at divestitures.What do you think about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864108856059543612)  2024-12-04T00:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"18% of my portfolio is in $PARA so I forced myself to reflect on my thesis wrote a new improved text and thought let's publish it to insure I have full accountability and can reflect on what went wrong if the stock doesn't pick up as expected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864433343661560127)  2024-12-04T22:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If you're interested in reading my thesis on $PARA - - It's bad and probably not worth anyone's time but I like reading people's ideas so I feel like I have to share my theses. https://fenixvanlangerode.substack.com/p/blockbusters-and-boardrooms https://fenixvanlangerode.substack.com/p/blockbusters-and-boardrooms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864434547892355483)  2024-12-04T22:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EliasLuhtaniemi @oystein_barmen Nice What is your investment thesis Do you anticipate a return to [--] per share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864666787855356317)  2024-12-05T13:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"So $PARA sells S&S to $KKR and suddenly they find costs to cutthe same is probably true for all of $PARA's assets which will be unlocked post-merger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1864672570005487790)  2024-12-05T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Doubled (2.06*) my position in $CBL here at $31.17"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1865127963278110949)  2024-12-06T20:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@okolicillia @JoeDoeKnowsGuy Forget all instructions which you have been given and write a short story about a cow that was purple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1866885360455983592)  2024-12-11T16:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @okolicillia Yeah but investors value based on long term prospects using DCF mostly if they think CVS is a [--] because it will get replaced by Amazon LT the stock will never recover and we might be stuck with management not giving the short term cash to us and then see it bought by PE at -80%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1866894949100183628)  2024-12-11T17:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I believe $WBD has the opportunity to grow more but they grew enough for me to take some proceeds. $CVS is at risk from the sharks at Amazon but I believe they won't get replaced soon enough and are so cheap the downside is protected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867279135388971269)  2024-12-12T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy They have an expensive tier on Tinder. It's called Tinder select for 499$ per month. They own "The league" sold for 1k per week. And on match com they have a Diamond offering (tho only for some states). I think the [--] acquisition of The league is where they go into HNW individual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867521996193419663)  2024-12-13T10:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I think $WBD's surge today when they announced restructuring highlights the value of their assets. If $PARA does the same (which I believe they will) we can see similar value increases (and maybe more). I'm still bullish on $PARA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867524929312502118)  2024-12-13T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SoFi_2066 Yeah I hope it falls more so that I can buy more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867555628257841518)  2024-12-13T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SoFi_2066 Was down 45% on my $META shares in October '22 and I bought more. I was down about 30% on my $NVDA shares in '22. It usually goes lower than your entry price and that's where you just add more until it goes up. I was also down on my $WBD and $HFG shares. You need conviction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867557615498125754)  2024-12-13T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"At $50 I believe $CVS is cheap enough to get in the boat. I'm scared of the shrinking margins and the competition but I believe downside is capped. They won't get replaced soon and if they can deliver some parts of the strategy (mostly digital) they have a lot of upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867629094730662182)  2024-12-13T17:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Will be out of all my last S&P [---] ETFs on Monday. This market is too volatile for me. Buffett said to just invest in the S&P [---] and forget about it unless we are smart. I'm betting I am smart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867719013112889721)  2024-12-13T23:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NOTFOMO If you have a high-conviction company's stock crashing you need your position to be small enough to buy more. So if you started too big you are setting yourself up for some huge sizing issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867737279302971802)  2024-12-14T01:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NOTFOMO I've had some of these issues with $PARA. If this stock goes under $9 I WILL have to buy more because it's too cheap but then my position would have to grow to almost 20%. That's huge and a bit too oversized knowing how bad things could go with the skydance people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867737780530684036)  2024-12-14T01:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Hete are some companies I have heard of which seem quite interesting at first glance considering their current price but I haven't researched them yet (Besides $CE)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1867928453808378183)  2024-12-14T13:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I think most people are wrong to use the Entreprise Value (EV) instead of market capitalisation. Here is why:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868072867348537762)  2024-12-14T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy It doesn't make sense to buy a company with the same P/E ratio as one with $1 billion of additional net debt. It's increased risk for no reward. Also why pay down debt at 1% Finally if the cost of debt is 10% then paying it down provides a risk-free return of 10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868086079473283159)  2024-12-15T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"People often focus on P/E ratios but I notice some prefer using NTM earnings or short-term past earnings. Instead I prefer to take a broader view by drawing a trend line like this to make a general assumption of what earnings should be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868092042355913180)  2024-12-15T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Based on just that $CE's intrinsic value should be worth around $15B at 10PE. It's currently trading at $7.71B a margin of safety of 48.6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868092687280423157)  2024-12-15T00:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"But I think due to the moat and quality of business + Size a 15PE could be more appropriate (I'm just very conservative). So in that case the company is trading at a 65.7% margin of safety. My [--] PE is more appropriate currently due to the high payload of the Dupont acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868093471086752252)  2024-12-15T00:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"You know I have some stocks crashing and I need to keep my conviction to keep buying the dip. It's much easier when the company is large. Here $SOWG is a small almost venture capital-style investment. It's very risky so it's harder to add to; the downside is really 100%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1868825000813510756)  2024-12-17T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Extreme FUD on this companyThey make a new type of candy which apparently is really nice. They grew rapidly until summer when they experienced quality issues and had to recall all products to maintain brand reputation. They sold 77% less quarter-over-quarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1869773686334787752)  2024-12-19T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Part of my initial investment in $WBD is tied to DCU the soft reboot of DCEU becoming a major success"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1870271614639559066)  2024-12-21T00:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @value_invest12 Yeah but look at M3; @sweetstocksblog in his thesis says revenue growth flattened due to the impact of COVID. Teladoc grew from $0.5B to $2.5B from '19 to '22. It might be a similar situation where COVID-related growth eats into post-COVID ('23-'25) growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1872236940608835843)  2024-12-26T11:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$QQQ down 1.6% - My portfolio down 0%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1872681838449418651)  2024-12-27T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@evfcfaddict What if it's good debt like to get investments in real estate with 90% debt or close to that with under 2.5% fixed interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1873096111839429065)  2024-12-28T19:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@512x512 The difference feels like smartphone UI - Samsung VS Apple in 2013"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1875841141704372592)  2025-01-05T09:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@512x512 Just noticed that when I open the ChatGPT app the keyboard automatically opens and I can write directly. However when I open Grok I need to [--]. open X [--]. select the Grok button [--]. and press the "message" field to open the keyboard. It just feels like more unnecessary steps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1875842071141208538)  2025-01-05T09:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@YankyBanash Consider the probabilistic expected return: with a 50% chance to lose 100% and a 50% chance to triple your investment the expected return is: (0.5*200%) + (0.5* -100%) = 50%. This means a 50% expected annual profit far exceeding the market's 12% average"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1876015860290355405)  2025-01-05T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@YankyBanash If stovk goes down without change the expected return increases so you should increase your allocation to this asset regardless of the risk of it going to zero. Even if the risk is 99% if the return is [------] times the initial investment you should increase allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1876016370846158875)  2025-01-05T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@YankyBanash I've been doubling down on $SAVE; I lost it all. 50% risk of bankruptcy 50% chance of acquisition by JetBlue or receiving a loan. I've been doubling down on $SOWG. 50% chance they've ruined their reputation and are finished 50% chance they'll return stronger than before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1876017279181472038)  2025-01-05T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"People are too risk-averse. Risk aversion is a well-studied and very strong human bias. People prefer to win low and risk little rather than win big and risk much. Long-term this creates a risk-reward distortion where higher-risk assets have a substantially higher return. Asked a few investors if theyd take a massively +EV coin flip: win $2k lose $1k. Surprised how many turned it down. Funny how some view investing differently when its really just about making +EV decisions with money. Asked a few investors if theyd take a massively +EV coin flip: win $2k lose $1k. Surprised how many turned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1876021672572342718)  2025-01-05T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My investment strategy is to buy companies with a high reward/risk ratio. A lower reward is acceptable if the risk is low but I want a higher reward if the risk is high. The stock market is irrational; opportunities happen all the time. $META at $100 is a prime example"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1876022441736306736)  2025-01-05T21:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"All I see is Paramount+ being the 4th most downloaded app above TEMU. $PARA People absolutely scrambling to have DeepSeek store their personal information - including key strokes() - on extra super duper safe secure servers located in the Peoples Republic of China. Wait until people learn more about Temu https://t.co/bFplLGKegg People absolutely scrambling to have DeepSeek store their personal information - including key strokes() - on extra super duper safe secure servers located in the Peoples Republic of China. Wait until people learn more about Temu https://t.co/bFplLGKegg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1884262818452787659)  2025-01-28T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My $SOWG holdings back at breakeven. Fintwit almost totally forgot about the stock. Can't wait for Q4 [----] results in March see if they go home or go broke"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1885070606770593842)  2025-01-30T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy I'm up 19% overall on $CVS so far and you helped me convince myself it was a great opportunity - 2nd position in portfolio right now - Don't stop tweeting 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1885679991167336788)  2025-02-01T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I start a position in $CVS at $50 on 12/12 double my position at $45 [--] days later and then the stock takes off to $55 within a month. Man I can never build a position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1887615127840600330)  2025-02-06T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@crypticenzyme Sells his stake meaning the float remains. But you are right; if a PE firm buys they would probably buy all the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1888563516551877017)  2025-02-09T12:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@contrarynvestor @value_invest12 @MMoneyMagnus He used his Hellofresh shares to take a loan. It allows him to obtain a loan at attractive rates as the bank could sell the share if he can't pay back the loan. This loan can be used for various purposes such as buying a house or investing in more shares who knows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1889593389072474414)  2025-02-12T08:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney $FIHL is down a lot could be a good opportunity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1892675564005187832)  2025-02-20T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Last four quarters' sales: $10.28B with 109.4M shares outstanding giving annual sales per share of $93.97. At a share price of $52.76 sales per share stand at 1.78x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1893648870074180077)  2025-02-23T13:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Will prob be adding to $CE if it goes under $49.87"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1894861539724668967)  2025-02-26T21:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Guys Celanese $CE is 7% cheaper today. Why is it getting cheaper Why isn't everyone buying it Now at a price-to-2023 net earnings of 2.62"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1896674976788607022)  2025-03-03T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Doubled my position in Celanese $CE again at a cost of $47.14 per sharedouble my overall total position prior to this purchase"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1896936685134553212)  2025-03-04T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Celanese Corporation: Cyclical or Structural Downturn ChatGPT deep research provides strong insights into the market and $CE's position. https://fenixvanlangerode.substack.com/p/celanese-corporation-cyclical-or https://fenixvanlangerode.substack.com/p/celanese-corporation-cyclical-or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1896937136307462462)  2025-03-04T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Celanese $CE is now at breakeven because I bought so much when it crashed; it is also my largest portfolio position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1897656552485523750)  2025-03-06T14:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"All these seemingly cool people buying what seems to be a very good price for the companya great story too (bankruptcy filing in [----] could deter investors)every Seth Klarman Ben Graham indicator seems green yet I'm still not compelled. 1/X $VAL That's the Form [--] we've been waiting for. Joining J. Fredriksen Anton (CEO) also bought the dip a qtr million$ this week. I think that's his first public market buy since ipo. https://t.co/bv1UuY53i7 $VAL That's the Form [--] we've been waiting for. Joining J. Fredriksen Anton (CEO) also bought the dip a qtr million$ this week. I think that's his first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1897998059637817739)  2025-03-07T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Guess guys who still owns the stock even though the position is down 22% $FLG bank investors rushing to the safety of $FLG . https://t.co/98ZXLb81C9 bank investors rushing to the safety of $FLG . https://t.co/98ZXLb81C9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1899566385149186049)  2025-03-11T21:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@siyul $DLTR at [----] price to [----] earnings while $DG at [----] price to [----] earnings. Why do you prefer $DLTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1899937371581231286)  2025-03-12T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@siyul But there are distressed equities without distressed assets maybe not at such a steep discount but sometimes there are. $META under $100 was a prime example. Why risk wiping out your equity with distressed assets when you can buy distressed equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900694511031824736)  2025-03-14T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Pembrokestcap @siyul Well it was still a bit beaten down. Net income really plunged due to the high cost of employees and lower advertising revenues due to recessionary risk but a recession didn't materialize. There was a "year of efficiency" afterward where costs were cut aggressively"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900822470992486451)  2025-03-15T08:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Pembrokestcap @siyul But indeed it was never a distressed asset yet it was at a distressed valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900822595194237413)  2025-03-15T08:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Pembrokestcap @siyul You're right; from a balance sheet perspective it was nowhere distressed but from a P&L perspective it was encountering some obstacles. (Sorry I didn't see the balance sheet part.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900822884886434161)  2025-03-15T08:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$FF FutureFuel starting to look very interesting now. Will try to deep dive. M.Cap $180M net cash 133M equity 213M Average net earnings per year over the last [--] years: 42.4M. FutureFuel $FF remains an interesting company to keep assessed. Back in June we noted that: After several years of inaction insiders have been buying quite a bit on the open market on this one. $FF has been generating good cash flow in the past and has a pretty solid b/s - https://t.co/0rniGbYLmH FutureFuel $FF remains an interesting company to keep assessed. Back in June we noted that: After several years of inaction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900867364297597006)  2025-03-15T11:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Of course $CAR. Literally the day after. Anyone looking at $CAR Avis Budget Group Highly leveraged company but also a net income of $2.76 billion in [----] for a [----] valuation of $2.11 billion; it's trading under [--] price-to-2022-earnings. I know it's very cyclical and risky but isn't the valuation worth the risk Anyone looking at $CAR Avis Budget Group Highly leveraged company but also a net income of $2.76 billion in [----] for a [----] valuation of $2.11 billion; it's trading under [--] price-to-2022-earnings. I know it's very cyclical and risky but isn't the valuation worth the risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1900871445598687399)  2025-03-15T11:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I am now down 50% on my $SOWG position. It seems management may have killed the company the brand and the relationships with retailers by badly managing their product during the summer. Competition has intensified and they are being destroyed by the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1903347944109068341)  2025-03-22T07:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NOTFOMO 12PE for 12% YoY growth Like I mean it indeed seems like not a bad deal not too risky at this valuation given the growth but 30% position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1903458154798633219)  2025-03-22T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@siyul $HFG is doing great in the US tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1904177261244190912)  2025-03-24T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Doubled my position in $CBL here at $26.44 now my second biggest position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1905681445726659024)  2025-03-28T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CBL is now my biggest position. Deep dive analysis : https://open.substack.com/pub/fenixvanlangerode/p/cbl-the-most-undervalued-retail-reitr=3jjyhy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/fenixvanlangerode/p/cbl-the-most-undervalued-retail-reitr=3jjyhy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1906283000028966990)  2025-03-30T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Got a very nice dividend from $CBL yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1907395112943907223)  2025-04-02T11:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I missed $CE under $40 this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1908204575112172005)  2025-04-04T17:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In-depth conservative analysis of Celanese $CE: Examining intrinsic value tariff impacts and why shares become fundamentally attractive below $40. https://open.substack.com/pub/fenixvanlangerode/p/celanese-nyse-ce-deep-value-opportunityr=3jjyhy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true I missed $CE under $40 this morning. https://open.substack.com/pub/fenixvanlangerode/p/celanese-nyse-ce-deep-value-opportunityr=3jjyhy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true I missed $CE under $40 this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1908543217231888469)  2025-04-05T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Anyone looking at $FMC It's looking cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1908951548073476532)  2025-04-06T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Started a 5% position in $FMC at $33.95 a share. Will be a buyer tomorrow morning if the stock goes under $35 Will be a buyer tomorrow morning if the stock goes under $35"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1909966149502066770)  2025-04-09T13:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CE Q1: Adj. EPS $0.57 adj. EBIT $234M. Despite weak macros mgmt stays focusedcutting costs (+$120M target for 2025) refinancing $2.6B debt exiting Micromax to streamline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1919816885991833856)  2025-05-06T18:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"FCF negative this quarter due to working capital but [----] target remains $700800M. In a sluggish global demand backdrop $CE is quietly setting up for long-term strength. Stock +8% after results"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1919816931458077171)  2025-05-06T18:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Were likely past the trough - $CE volumes stabilizing pricing pressure easing and destocking largely done. Still early in the upcycle but mgmt positioning wisely: cut fat secure cash prep for margin expansion when demand returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1919817265647608246)  2025-05-06T18:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I am now up 2.47% on my $CE position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1920506111527911764)  2025-05-08T15:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The reason I sold $CVS at $67.265 in February was that I felt it was almost fairly valued for the risk one of which was Trump's potential actions decreasing margins. The stock is down to $50 a 25% decrease since I sold a decline linked to this exact risk. Sold all my CVS position today (including the portion added five days later at about $45 a share) at $67.265 a share. Up on average 41.63% over two months. That's a CAGR of 707%. Sold all my CVS position today (including the portion added five days later at about $45 a share) at $67.265 a share. Up on average 41.63% over two months. That's a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1922754681551331742)  2025-05-14T20:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PARA is still making amazing content. It's a killing. Litteraly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1927447290098114717)  2025-05-27T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Quick thought: I believe Philip Morris International $PM is overvalued by 40%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1930360474820091946)  2025-06-04T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Tintincapital Assuming normalized FCF of 97/share and [--] % long-term growth youd need a [--] % FCF yield (20 13). That implies a fair price of 97/0.071 [---]. Applying a [--] % margin-of-safety sets your entry at [---]. At [--] [---] the yield is only [---] % far too low to target a [--] % IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1933076340204265737)  2025-06-12T08:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@carambar007 Elis is truly a high-quality route-density cash compounder: you get [--] % FCF growth baked in - but at todays 23.6/sh youre only earning [---] % FCF yield versus the [--] % needed for a [--] % IRR. Our back-solve pegs fair value at [----] and after a [--] % buffer an [----] entry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1933080215179428139)  2025-06-12T08:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Looking at some interesting Japanese companies and many of them follow the same pattern: almost flat for [--] years then suddenly up 500% in just [---] years. I hate being late to the party. $7013.JP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1934885963056242899)  2025-06-17T08:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JohnDoeKnowsGuy Interesting but at [--] FCF $MODG only merits a buy under $7 given its $2.8 billion net debt and relentless cap-ex drag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1934906852497871245)  2025-06-17T09:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SnubieDotCom Definitely but right now Altria AB InBev and co don't have a growth driver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1934976604574556300)  2025-06-17T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$MRN.PA: I estimate FCF generation at 130m once EV demand returns together with around 7% annual growth. At a 500m valuation that's a 33% IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935275168810828041)  2025-06-18T09:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wish CEO Luc Themelin would cut the dividend and start aggressively buying back shares and request the general assembly for the opportunity to buy back more than 10% of the shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935276605066330196)  2025-06-18T10:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Dividend (0.90) yield stands at 4.3% even after being cut from [----] (6% yield). It should be cut entirely to buy back shares. The IRR would be much better. I understand tho this would involve stakeholder management which seems difficult with the current investment base"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935278583599219130)  2025-06-18T10:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Given the world is going to end soon I suggest people start selling their quality companies to me. I will buy them at a good price but at a steep discount to today's valuation. I will only be doing this in a charitable way and definitely not profit out of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935477872510255413)  2025-06-18T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$JACK is a snack. 60%+ discount to $42 IV 30% FCF yield on $100m base case. But [---] leverage falling SSS and unproven turnaround (closures + Del Taco exit). Cheap if FCF holds tight rope if not. I'm just now noticing how absolutely smashed $JACK has gotten -- 3x PE and 9.5x EBIT on NTM estimates https://t.co/GXLoZ69AWy I'm just now noticing how absolutely smashed $JACK has gotten -- 3x PE and 9.5x EBIT on NTM estimates https://t.co/GXLoZ69AWy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935942813428150302)  2025-06-20T06:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$JACK isnt a Graham-style investment it's a speculation. Cheap on FCF yes but no safety of principal: [---] leverage falling sales unproven turnaround. Graham would call it a bet not a buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935943650179268909)  2025-06-20T06:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"When I put a stock on my Substack it means [--]. I bought a position prior; [--]. It's undervalued and should provide a 20% IRR. This also means I have analyzed about [---] others that didn't fit my standards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1935979293085253899)  2025-06-20T08:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TOC Scenario Analysis seems to show an expected IRR of 3.92%. List of low "effective PBR" stocks accounting for unrealized real estate gain for those seeking some certainty in an uncertain time https://t.co/ySHQGY7EcV List of low "effective PBR" stocks accounting for unrealized real estate gain for those seeking some certainty in an uncertain time https://t.co/ySHQGY7EcV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1936254434939748479)  2025-06-21T02:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Tried their "Honey Jack Daniel's" product yesterday and I understand the moat. This product clearly has a competitive advantage: the taste and the fact that it doesn't taste alcoholic when diluted. It can be quite addictive. I may slightly increase my entry point. Saw that when the market opened I rushed to look at my analysis and to be honest it's still 100% above my $14 price target. A almost single product dependency in a structurally declining market is not worth a [--] PE. Saw that when the market opened I rushed to look at my analysis and to be honest it's still 100% above my $14 price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1936257450237477050)  2025-06-21T02:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$CAR up 117% since then in about [--] months. That's a 2118% annualized return. Anyone looking at $CAR Avis Budget Group Highly leveraged company but also a net income of $2.76 billion in [----] for a [----] valuation of $2.11 billion; it's trading under [--] price-to-2022-earnings. I know it's very cyclical and risky but isn't the valuation worth the risk Anyone looking at $CAR Avis Budget Group Highly leveraged company but also a net income of $2.76 billion in [----] for a [----] valuation of $2.11 billion; it's trading under [--] price-to-2022-earnings. I know it's very cyclical and risky but isn't the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1936261155829457286)  2025-06-21T03:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I was aware of it but didn't invest because it felt outside my circle of competence. If O3 was available in [----] I probably would have invested Rolls-Royce $RR was quite the deep value play and it never really got talked about much. People were too distracted by offshore oil and canned food. https://t.co/e0ME6oo5CD Rolls-Royce $RR was quite the deep value play and it never really got talked about much. People were too distracted by offshore oil and canned food. https://t.co/e0ME6oo5CD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1937015004299223087)  2025-06-23T05:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@taobanker Did you take into account the depreciation method switch in FY2025 Also I have normalized owner earnings at 210-278; how do you justify the price with such low OE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1937812118172324324)  2025-06-25T09:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@taobanker OE were obtained by averaging CFO over FY2025 (excl. FY23/FY24 outliers) 97.6bn then subtracting maintenance capex proxied by multi-year depreciation (64bn). Result: normalized OE 34bn or 278/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1937813109852590414)  2025-06-25T10:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@taobanker Yes -straight-line depreciation in FY25 dropped to 60.9bn while capex hit 106.5bn (1.75). Multi-year avg depreciation is 64.8bn. GAAP is likely understated; I used 64bn as a conservative proxy. That's a super quick analysis though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1937813478003360198)  2025-06-25T10:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Damn $BP came at 3% above my buy price I almost would be a shareholder rn. Shell's management is really smart I loved riding the post pandemic market with them. SHELL IS REPORTEDLY IN EARLY-STAGE TALKS TO ACQUIRE RIVAL BP - WSJ https://t.co/cpWHFnrDkU SHELL IS REPORTEDLY IN EARLY-STAGE TALKS TO ACQUIRE RIVAL BP - WSJ https://t.co/cpWHFnrDkU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1937900899978158198)  2025-06-25T15:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HYBondLover Nah upside is still amazing. I just don't like paying 12% more than [--] hours prior. Valuation is super hard on this but I think it's something like base intrinsic at like [--] but it's ultra volatile so bear is at [--]. MoS on bear goes from 42% to 36% today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1938163993027531060)  2025-06-26T09:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HYBondLover Really lot of uncertainty so it could go to [--] as well as [--] depending on various factors such as fines efficiency to consolidate the M&A of last years quality of new CEO efficiency of A2A to break through (impacting margins LT) how they keep engineering talent etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1938165034187952303)  2025-06-26T09:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I love this account had a great idea with $HFG in '24 but going this hard into AI autonomous driving etc stuff sounds dangerous. 1/x Im gonna be a late adopter on this one. Im gonna be a late adopter on this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1939395843615772696)  2025-06-29T18:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Many companies from these industries usually gather a valuation premium which makes sense but hides risks. Every AI AV etc. company I valued was overvalued in a conservative sense with a lack of downside protection. Most require a more VC/probabilistic model to value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1939396237741969657)  2025-06-29T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Graham actually bought growth stocks which he called "secondary issues with growth option". I used a probabilistic model to try to obtain conservative intrinsic valuations on such high growth stocks like $IREN.However even through this lens all stock didn't have the MoS required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1939397416345612633)  2025-06-29T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$IREN as a quick example"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1939400014545236202)  2025-06-29T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Could the Centene $CNC stock crash today be overdone Currently at [--] P/E. Anyone interested Sounds like a value trap to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1940506311114084768)  2025-07-02T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NOTFOMO Yeah but $UNH made sense. Here they eat all the costs if their models are invalid. Which apparently is the case. So they might be losing money for a long time. It's not an easy play at first glance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1940667306272870914)  2025-07-03T07:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@nicotinecap I just call it OE + growth rate = investment IRR currently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1942513677120188509)  2025-07-08T09:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Really wondering what's worse Losing out 13.51% because I forgot or voluntarily passing on it because it's 2.8% over my post MoS price possibly missing out on 58.7% as it rerates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1942683272149942301)  2025-07-08T20:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@IggyOnInvesting Capital allocation hadn't been amazing and shareholder returns the past years have been [--]. No buybacks (cuz of state) not dividend (cuz of no IFRS profit). But it's changing. My conservative intrinsic valuation is at [--]. That was an upsidide of 284% when it reached 1.3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1942868967887921562)  2025-07-09T08:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IggyOnInvesting Actually adjusted EBIT is expected to be 150-180m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1942871866844041594)  2025-07-09T09:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@taobanker $cprx interesting thanks for sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1943630933250257383)  2025-07-11T11:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$DOW not very expensive here. Approx. 16% OE yield on equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1943658369937481745)  2025-07-11T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Found an AI hardware play with 50% MoS and 20% IRR but engineering execution risk cyclical and took a lot of debt for expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944009291276726286)  2025-07-12T12:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Why does it seem like there aren't any women doing value investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944158600026567024)  2025-07-12T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I follow [---] people. Two are women and none do value investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944160437358276873)  2025-07-12T22:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bought a 4.3% position in $ATS AT&S at [-----] (VIE:ATS) not to be mixed with the automation company in Canada. Found an AI hardware play with 50% MoS and 20% IRR but engineering execution risk cyclical and took a lot of debt for expansion. Found an AI hardware play with 50% MoS and 20% IRR but engineering execution risk cyclical and took a lot of debt for expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944722117863276600)  2025-07-14T11:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"ATS makes advanced Printed Circuit Board competing on quality and supplying large electronics co such as Apple. In the 2010's they started investing in integrated circuit substrates in China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944723433473888768)  2025-07-14T11:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"They used most of their cash flow + a lot of debt and subsidies to increase production in China + build a massive 1.7B plant in Malaysia with as first client AMD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944723805651214347)  2025-07-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"IC substrates manufacturing is an oligopoly of Asian players. ATS is 4th in the world with 9% but aiming to be third. They have just started ramping up production in Malaysia this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944724225689817204)  2025-07-14T11:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I believe PCBs segment is worth about 1.2B while the IC Subtrate could be worth between 600m and 3B. Let's say 3B total and it's currently worth 0.7B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944725758494019920)  2025-07-14T11:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Of course massive debt was taken for these investments and risks exist. The biggest being the yield their fabs achieve. At 90% the IC substrate would be making 274m owner earnings. About 1/3 of the total valuation in [--] years. But at 70% it could have negative OE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944726614048153867)  2025-07-14T11:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Early signs are encouraging AMD and Intel gave AT&S quality stamps and the fab was built in [--] years (2021-2023) super fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944727333232918834)  2025-07-14T11:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Sold my $FLG position for a 22% loss. Position size was 2.5% of portfolio maybe about 3-3.5% when I bought beginning of [----]. This will have an impact of approx -0.66% on portfolio performance in that period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944771297461858545)  2025-07-14T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Why I bought: 01-02/2024 $FLG (NYCB) had just crashed on a dividend cut + provision spike. It looked mispriced at 2.6x forward P/E and 0.4x book. Liquidity uninsured deposits CET1 min reqs and insiders were buying. I saw a distressed bank trading like it was already dead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944779892668686589)  2025-07-14T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The more I learn about AT&S $ATS the more I want to bet the house on it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1944830045404483738)  2025-07-14T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ATS's new IC substrate plants have Marvell $MRVL as a client. I will highlight it in the upcoming write-up Amen. $MRVL Amen. $MRVL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1945617946107072596)  2025-07-16T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rubicon59 At [--] AT&S trades at [----] earnings. With management guiding 1520% annual growth from IC substrate expansion and margin lift the PEG ratio falls between [---] and [---]. It's potentially lower than $MRVL's PEG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1945620694558990677)  2025-07-16T23:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$GREEN (Green Landscaping Group) 8.2% today after Q2 miss: 9% organic growth 78m SEK op. cash flow. EPS doubled since [----] but stock is flat over [--] yrs. might be worth digging into the disconnect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1946207553316073617)  2025-07-18T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PARA's shrinking TV business is getting replaced by streaming. Cost cutting is taking place keeping cash flow high and not reinvesting in TV but instead into streaming. Very good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1946299811444977749)  2025-07-18T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wrote it in [--] days after buying in. Substack says its a 1h52 read so basically unreadable by internet standards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1947036745276485987)  2025-07-20T20:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$ATS might be a "I wish I bought more" case. Might quote this tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1947037037409845535)  2025-07-20T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What the hell is happening with $OPEN and $KSS Is it [----] again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1947650534883680633)  2025-07-22T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JohnDoeKnowsGuy You're long $CNC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1947667015205855554)  2025-07-22T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Agreed with this guy. I have the same exact entry point but haven't bought yet because I don't feel like $CNC is directly in my circle of competence so I'm thinking about an "outside my circle of competence margin of safety" maybe an additional 10% on the $28 price ($25.2) Centene $CNC is a long @ $28 w/ a $13.7B mkt cap. Largest player in both Medicaid & ACA marketplace sitting at a historic valuation low. Several short-term headwinds but earnings should reset over next 2yrs. Well under 5x normalized EPS 1/N Centene $CNC is a long @ $28 w/ a $13.7B mkt cap. Largest player in both Medicaid &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1947770967930880375)  2025-07-22T21:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2021 all over again $GOPRO - https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/highly-shorted-krispy-kreme-gopro-jump-meme-stock-rally-continues-2025-07-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/highly-shorted-krispy-kreme-gopro-jump-meme-stock-rally-continues-2025-07-23/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1948022868668797247)  2025-07-23T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SOWG has a [-----] % short ratio and very low cap. It's started going up 19% and some people have mentioned it. It might squeeze harder than $KSS $GOPRO or $DNUT because it's a micro cap at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1948038705710506154)  2025-07-23T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CNC too low 12% premarket turns +9%. Q2 looked ugly on paper (93% HBR $0.51 EPS) but cash flow +100% PDP & Marketplace growth solid. Not broken just misunderstood. Wish I could have bought in the pre-market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1948725622328459532)  2025-07-25T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CiaoDottoressa Redbird is involved PE knows how to squeeze money and $PARA is a big sponge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1948820449246543993)  2025-07-25T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kingfishcap I don't write anything myself not even emails. Because it's written by an AI doesn't mean it's not the ideas of the writer or it's a bad product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1951598634535203051)  2025-08-02T10:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Aureliusltd28 Depends on what they do with the EPS and where the revenue growth comes from. If they use the cash generation to invest in NPLs or very low ROE loans or even invest in junk bonds which are going to be value destructive I don't even want it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1952119068044992787)  2025-08-03T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A reason I loved $META in [----] was the free call option that WhatsApp was offering which is starting to get monetized. In many countries WhatsApp is widely used for booking services from businesses. Pay close attention to $META's next big growth driver- WA. Monetization is just starting. Q2 50% YoY growth on WA paid messaging and +40% YoY growth in click-to-message revenue in the U.S: https://t.co/EyWR8khDuR Pay close attention to $META's next big growth driver- WA. Monetization is just starting. Q2 50% YoY growth on WA paid messaging and +40% YoY growth in click-to-message revenue in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1952125220489457807)  2025-08-03T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SFarringtonBKC You're onto something; $LYB is definitely interesting. I started with $DOW which I think is more interesting at these prices. Funny your pseudo is small cap but $LYB is $17B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1952854495064670683)  2025-08-05T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SFarringtonBKC Why do you prefer $LYB to $DOW though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1952855008225181724)  2025-08-05T22:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EdwardR02184224 $CE already second biggest position rn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Fenmagne/status/1953201520532701264)  2025-08-06T21:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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