#  @EnergyRealist25 The Energy Realist The Energy Realist posts on X about $rig, $borr, $oih, $val the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1482434599271768066/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +165% - [--] Month [------] -10% - [--] Months [-------] -26% - [--] Year [-------] +15% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1482434599271768066/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +42% - [--] Month [--] +9.80% - [--] Months [---] +22% - [--] Year [---] +32% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1482434599271768066/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.27% - [--] Month [-----] +0.70% - [--] Months [-----] +13% - [--] Year [-----] +31% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1482434599271768066/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 49.56% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 26.55% [finance](/list/finance) 24.78% [countries](/list/countries) 6.19% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 4.42% [formula 1](/list/formula-1) 0.88% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.88% **Social topic influence** [$rig](/topic/$rig) #75, [$borr](/topic/$borr) #3, [$oih](/topic/$oih) #17, [$val](/topic/$val) #14, [val](/topic/val) #170, [oil](/topic/oil) 15.04%, [$ne](/topic/$ne) 13.27%, [$pten](/topic/$pten) #2, [$xle](/topic/$xle) 8.85%, [gas](/topic/gas) 7.96% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@gringoinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@mxschumacher](/creator/undefined) [@ayusovalue](/creator/undefined) [@tinformernews](/creator/undefined) [@donwinslow](/creator/undefined) [@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@michaelaarouet](/creator/undefined) [@okaythenme](/creator/undefined) [@deitaone](/creator/undefined) [@vtchakarova](/creator/undefined) [@jorgemoj](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@tylerhardt](/creator/undefined) [@corona_n_lyme](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)](/topic/$borr) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (PTEN)](/topic/$pten) [ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)](/topic/$acdc) [Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT)](/topic/$lbrt) [PumpBTC (Governance token) (PUMP)](/topic/$pump) [Schlumberger NV (SLB)](/topic/$slb) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [Hippo Protocol (HP)](/topic/$hp) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Ecopetrol S.A (EC)](/topic/$ec) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Halliburton Company (HAL)](/topic/$hal) [PolkaBridge (PBR)](/topic/$pbr) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Cryptonex (CNX)](/topic/$cnx) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "With all #DeepWater bullishness in my feed it was quite a shocker to see retail dumped drillers last month (S&P's capital flows analysis): At the end of the day I guess the big bad "white space" did scare away folks 🤷♂ Noteworthy though institutional investors bought quite a bit: I'd say in this case the institutional guys are showing they may very well be the "smart money" 😉 $borr $val $rig $ne $do $sdrl $oih #oott #eft" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1727034813016690958) 2023-11-21T18:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ec $xle Short Ecopetrol note based on a couple insights I saw in some recent research. The first part is the forecasted production profile from S&P Commodity Insights: $EC should see a slight increase in [----] production to 725-730 kboe/d up from [---] kboe/d in [----]. However given Gustavo Petro isn't approving new exploration licenses the Colombian production is expected to decline in the next few years. The company has been relying on its expertise in enhanced oil recovery to mitigate this and developing existing licenses but at some point new exploration will be needed. Instead Ecopetrol is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1738271909396070608) 2023-12-22T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Back to back bullish calls (2x to PT) on $BORR and $TDW from Evercore; offshore capex may drop in '25 but there should be sharp rebound in '26 🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856796309396537738) 2024-11-13T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$VAL realizing the easiest way to unlock shareholder value is to let $RIG manage their drillships 😂 Holy Guacamoly $RIG to acquire $VAL didn't see that coming. All share deal with RIG owning 53% of the combined company. https://t.co/hUzXLRrJsQ Holy Guacamoly $RIG to acquire $VAL didn't see that coming. All share deal with RIG owning 53% of the combined company. https://t.co/hUzXLRrJsQ" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2020944094021783868) 2026-02-09T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG talking up jack-ups definitely wasn't on my bingo card though - and that seems to be pushing up $BORR too. Ironically when Transocean exited jack-ups in [----] it sold its fleet to. Borr 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2020946393700175915) 2026-02-09T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GringoInvesting The Enverus weekly I see shows [---] gas rigs overall though prior week was +5 so likely timing & definitions misalignment. But I also just saw $CNX is doing +15% capex increase so safe to assume there will be more gas drilling esp. in Haynesville 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2021255281804546439) 2026-02-10T16:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Saudi Aramco is bringing back [--] suspended $NBR rigs; $BORR up too likely on the Aramco association but if land rigs are coming back offshore may do too🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1985430750204739920) 2025-11-03T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OIH $ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PD.TO $PTEN North America rig expectations via JPM: - gas rigs up to [---] - oil rigs to fall further - Canada flat 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2000295260153593963) 2025-12-14T20:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$oih $borr $val $plsv Jackups commentary from DNB - Saudi is "back" Mexico not quite yet. NOCs now control 77% of demand which makes it more robust to oil prices; the downside is NOCs may have stronger preference for local suppliers esp. when they have equity stake 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2006047377531048256) 2025-12-30T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ACDC $LBRT $PTEN $PUMP With simul/trimul frac more proppant etc. it's prob time to retire the frac spread count as activity measure. Fewer fleets + more HHP per fleet = same HHP. Activity is declining but not as much as fleet count suggests 🤷♂ https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1965145329411785153 US shale frac spreads continue to drop to new cycle lows as wells produce negative full-cycle NPV10's at current commodity prices Very important data point to watch in 1H26 with volatile pricing ahead further M&A expected and remaining acreage quality further degrading. 🛢💰" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2010444937956126917) 2026-01-11T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What I found interesting from the $HAL call was how often management mentioned stacking equipment (particularly U.S. land & frac fleets) 🧐 Also relevant to $ACDC $CFW.TO $LBRT $PUMP $HAL numbers look ✅👌 https://t.co/SY49Nu7WO3 $HAL numbers look ✅👌 https://t.co/SY49Nu7WO3" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2015495339520778502) 2026-01-25T18:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OIH $BORR $PLSV.OL $VAL The Saudi jack-up tenders are slowly tightening the market. Paratus and others may be fine companies but there is only one stock offering 100% exposure. This may result in premium if other offshore segments such as OSVs lag JUs as capital returns 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019055295503188235) 2026-02-04T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LBRT -9% on the convertible bonds news and weighing down on $PUMP too $ACDC / $PTEN not reacting as much - going all in on data centers can cut both ways especially when the AI stalwarts themselves have been under pressure 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019088260262150283) 2026-02-04T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LYB breaking out above [---] dma on elevated volume. Maybe they won't cut the dividend after all 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019089654188794196) 2026-02-04T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "New 52-week highs for $RIG too. But I wouldn't say nobody cared. Rather many got scared 🤷♂ $RIG nobody cared. https://t.co/Xn3iQ1RN9c $RIG nobody cared. https://t.co/Xn3iQ1RN9c" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019090815033700549) 2026-02-04T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Private #natgas operators looking content to add rigs in the 3.50-4.00 HH range - and if they are why should price move higher (absent periodic weather distortions) 🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019137547511968200) 2026-02-04T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Jefferies says getting Venezuela to 3m bbl/d will be $8 bn/yr $OIH revenue; $SLB could see +$500m EBITDA/yr So under bullish assumptions (oil $100 in 2014) SLB gets just +5% of '28E EBITDA. I hope there's more than Ven behind the OFS rally as the rug pull could be massive 🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019156004601045393) 2026-02-04T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LYB doesn't benefit from cheap oil 🤦♂ The ideal scenario is low US #natgas / high oil which hinders Asian competitors running on naphtha feedstock I think we are headed into a period of cheap oil or stable oil around $60 chemical companies like $BAK $LYB and $DOW will benefit from cheap oil $BAK gets you in Brazil which will give you the most torque given the move to emerging markets https://t.co/ZOWXHumozE I think we are headed into a period of cheap oil or stable oil around $60 chemical companies like $BAK $LYB and $DOW will benefit from cheap oil $BAK gets you in Brazil which will give" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019850651279237406) 2026-02-06T19:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$acdc $lbrt $pten $pump Great Patterson-UTI slide visualizing why Primary Vision frac spreads haven't correlated to lower oil production so far 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2019857023798501705) 2026-02-06T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mxschumacher @TinFormer_News You have to look at the relative importance of diff feedstocks. For $LYB the bulk of manufacturing is in the U.S. so gas price is key. High oil hurts Asian plants more so LYB benefits. Analysts even coined the term "US ethane advantage"" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2020110436494909742) 2026-02-07T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "From S&P Global Feb #natgas outlook - "we expect E&P companies to start ramping up drilling" - with $BKR now showing Haynesville at [--] rigs vs. [--] a year ago (+7 WoW) prob based expectation & looks NYMEX 4-4.50 enough to incentivize supply 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2020551524020077049) 2026-02-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This also makes a bit funny the drillships vs jack-ups debates we periodically see on X 😂 The barbell strategy was always the one that made most sense" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2020946396942094640) 2026-02-09T19:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$RIG's 7.50% Apr-2031 (junior) bonds have gone up from [--] yesterday to [---] today - the deleveraging part of the merger thesis seems to be working out so far. The equity is down today but doubt we'll come close to yesterday's 180m volume = 6x the average🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2021250986841350368) 2026-02-10T15:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@donwinslow What media do you watch 🤔 Bloomberg and CNBC have been talking about the bond market nonstop this week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910990595104944372) 2025-04-12T09:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AyusoValue Do you perhaps have any views on $EDEN.PA" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/2021281969103884431) 2026-02-10T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://seekingalpha.com/news/4006146-petrobras-upgraded-to-buy-at-ubs-seeing-20-dividend-yield-potential-for-2024 https://seekingalpha.com/news/4006146-petrobras-upgraded-to-buy-at-ubs-seeing-20-dividend-yield-potential-for-2024" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1694800791406628955) 2023-08-24T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "On the deepwater front Transocean put up a new presentation today. Nice slide showing rig demand is projected to grow even at $40 oil; offshore services are turning from the most vulnerable segment of the energy space into the most resilient one $rig $val $ne $sdrl $oih" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1696590184731529572) 2023-08-29T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Here we go 👏 Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://t.co/QYSyD4lKlf Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://t.co/QYSyD4lKlf" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1697253876817404193) 2023-08-31T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just wanted to clarify that Transocean's registration filing announced today relates to insider Perestroika's exercise of its conversion option under the '27 exchangeable bonds back in April. This is old news and the dilution had already happened $rig https://seekingalpha.com/news/4008879-transocean-says-selling-stockholder-offering-826m-shares https://seekingalpha.com/news/4008879-transocean-says-selling-stockholder-offering-826m-shares" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1698763341689225536) 2023-09-04T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ewz Good writeup on #Brazil. I believe the 2020s will be about EMs + commodities not AI. Source: Moody's Capital Mkts Research" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1703053754868654588) 2023-09-16T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$oih $iez $xes $wfrd $xle If you still doubt we're in an oilfield services bull market/new E&P capex cycle take note that even Weatherford is now making money 😲" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1718718420231802947) 2023-10-29T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There's some disappointment with $RIG after the earnings like the post below and that's understandable- especially if you entered close to $9 (which is why you scale in gradually right). So probably easier for me to talk "long-term" when my cost basis is in the low $3s and I acknowledge I might have had a different perspective if my cost was $8 (theoretically it doesn't matter but the psychology is different). However if you were looking to make a quick buck this isn't the stock for you. Even after the current drawdown $RIG is up +85% over the last [--] years. However if you missed the two best" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1719770077459775965) 2023-11-01T17:35Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements "$xle $xop $oih #oil #copper One reason the macro picture (and particularly commodities demand) is so blurry is that the world's major economies are so out of phase with each other. Whatever narrative you believe in you can find data points to support it" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1723042285082775926) 2023-11-10T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Valuations in the offshore drilling group aren't really that disparate. From high to low EV/est. [----] EBITDA: $RIG - 6.8x $BORR - 4.8x $NE - 4.7x $VAL - 4.5x $SDRL.OL - 4.4x $DO - 4.4x $DDRIL.OL - 2.1x Most are in a tight 4-5x range. Transocean is an outlier on the upper end but this multiple can come down quickly with reactivations from its massive cold-stacked pile = option value. Dolphin seemingly an outlier on the lower end but let's acknowledge they had [--] rigs + [--] now acquired from Transocean: Paul Lloyd (1990) Transocean Leader (1987) So their 2x multiple probably reflects the less than" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1724768837134938566) 2023-11-15T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NBR $ESI.TO $PD.TO $PTEN $HP $OIH The trend toward longer horizontal wells in U.S. shale may be a partial explanation for why U.S. production has seemingly exceeded expectations despite lower rig counts. However Helmerich & Payne mentioned that each rig is now also drilling more wells per year despite the average well being longer: "In the last [--] years average lateral length has doubled to over [-----] feet and at the same time the well cycle times have improved by 22%. This means that each FlexRig today drills about [---] more wells on average per year and those rigs have doubled the exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1726370864524873896) 2023-11-19T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$borr $ddril.ol $ne $nol.ol $odl.ol $shllf $sdrl $rig $val $oih Floater rig demand-supply bridge from Arctic Securities' mildly bearish "prolonged mid-cycle"/"roll over risk" report (couple weeks dated but probably still relevant). Looks they see [----] supporting [---] rigs (drillships + semis) with [---] rigs potentially competing for this work = 90% marketed utilization. Interestingly to get to [---] supply the bridge analysis assumes Transocean would re-activate [--] drillships + Henry Goodrich. Yet RIG is the only ticker rated "hold" by Arctic; everyone else is a "buy." I get RIG is more expensive" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1729600044695769127) 2023-11-28T20:35Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "*U.S. RIG TRENDS AND SHALE PRODUCTIVITY* Two years ago commentators were negative on OFS because E&P capital discipline would leave services with little pricing power. Well we saw how "capital discipline" went especially among private E&Ps. However and ironically the OFS drilling contractors have actually shown pretty good discipline so far. $NOV's [----] rig census says that while the active U.S. rig fleet decreased 24% from the prior census rig utilization increased from 54% to 58% Some of it has to do with NOV's definitions which exclude from available supply rigs inactive [--] or more years" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1731418026296087016) 2023-12-03T21:00Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements "*SHALE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND PRIVATES* I was a bit skeptical we can just attribute all the surprise in shale production growth to private E&Ps but a research note from S&P seems to support this thesis too. Further this growth has been super concentrated - just [--] privates (out of 11000) apparently added [------] bpd relative to Dec. 2019: So for the lack of "capital discipline" you can blame: - Endeavor - Mewbourne - Kaiser Francis - CrownQuest But since they don't have investor relations departments they won't care much. It is rumored the PE funds behind these operators are looking to exit so" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732088946312483151) 2023-12-05T17:26Z [----] followers, 55.9K engagements "$oih $xle $nbr $esi.to $rig $borr S&P's Upstream Insights updates its capex forecast; 2023-2027 CAGR: onshore +1% offshore + 7.2% This implies offshore +40% in [--] years; also for 1% revenue growth EBITDA will prob grow 1.5% due to operating leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744047252358762909) 2024-01-07T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "First time in Las Palmas and I didn't realize it was an open-air rig museum. From L to R: [--]. $NE's stacked Pacific Meltem & Scirocco [--]. $VAL's DS-7 supposedly being re-activated [--]. DS-11 stacked [--]. $NE's Faye Kozack - I assume just enjoying the "white space" No $RIG's" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1746275414505299984) 2024-01-13T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "IMHO the $RIG selloff isn't about RIG as the entire $XLE/ $OIH sector including giants like $XOM and $SLB is getting pummeled. RIG is simply higher beta. I took a look just now at RIG's credit spreads YTD: 1) 7.45% 15-Apr-27 unsecured notes OAS tightened by [--] bps 2) 7.00% 01-Jun-28 sr. unsecured notes OAS tighter by [--] bps 3) 7.50% 15-Apr-31 sr. unsecured notes OAS wider by [--] bps 4) 9.35% 15-Dec-41 sr. unsecured notes OAS tighter by [--] bps The debt and equity markets don't appear to be speaking in one voice. Notes: a) OAS = option-adjusted spread as practically all these issues are callable;" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747629158019011066) 2024-01-17T14:37Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "1/ Digesting $SLB's must-listen earnings call: The international capex cycle continues: This is why you need OFS stocks. Energy security/NOC driven growth isn't bullish for ShaleCos or #COM plays. Super bullish for OFS though" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1748720464820592804) 2024-01-20T14:53Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements "1/ $HAL following $SLB with EPS beat and divvy increase. Nice articulation of the services thesis: a) the world needs more oil + b) rising service intensity = more services needed to produce the same amount of oil" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749878977588568190) 2024-01-23T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR's volatility won't hint at it but in theory jack-ups demand is more robust than the demand for floaters and has seen smaller drawdowns: One reason for the divergence has been the different customer mix. NOCs which have more steady capex plans have been increasing their share of jack-ups usage: Does that make jack-ups a better investment Not necessarily. The flip side of the coin is jack-ups supply whether newbuilds reactivations or upgrades is more responsive. Right now the orderbook is at historical lows of less than 5% of the existing fleet: But 5% isn't zero and can scale up easier" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1752066954670518414) 2024-01-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "" $RIG is insolvent at 450k dayrates " Here's a quick exercise using the Q3 numbers which are the latest reported: adjusted EBITDA = $162m revenue = $713m average dayrate = $391300 revenue if the dayrate was 450k = $820m EBITDA if the dayrate was 450k = $269m cash interest = $139m* EBITDA interest coverage = 1.95x Not great but insolvent Mind you Q3 capex was only $50m. At 450k dayrates RIG can service debt and capex without issuing equity. No recommendation DYODD. * The total interest is $232m but $93m of that is a non-cash component related to the exercises of the convertible debt." [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1752793395704017288) 2024-01-31T20:38Z [----] followers, 18.5K engagements "Permian well productivity trends via Commodity Insights. Productivity is rolling over at least when normalized for lateral length. $oih $xop" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1754590290847916193) 2024-02-05T19:38Z [----] followers, 12K engagements "$RIG's 7.45% April [----] notes which I watch the most as they are in my portfolio have been doing well this week so I took a look at all other non-convertible debt too. I have layered on top of the debt schedule the bid-ask midpoint as of today (note the quotes may vary a bit among providers). Virtually all secured debt is above par. Unsecured debt is below par but the yields are still pretty good. Generally yields are at 9-10% for the unsecured debt and 7.0% - 7.5% for the secured debt. As the 10-year treasury is at 4% a big chunk of that is just the underlying risk-free rate. Something" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1765833398893891972) 2024-03-07T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$xle $xop $oih Breakeven estimates for new oil wells from the recent Dallas Fed energy survey now vs. two years ago; the marginal Permian barrel cost has gone up from $54 to $70; probably why each $CL dip into the $60s has been fairly short-lived:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776652496708243750) 2024-04-06T16:45Z [----] followers, 66.8K engagements "$xle $oih $rig $val $ne $sdrl $borr Offshore drilling market stats courtesy of DNB; the tightest segments are: HE 6G semis - 100% marketed utilization 7G drillships - 92% Jack-ups newer than [----] - 96% (95% for 2000-2009 JUs)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1777759635639849084) 2024-04-09T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG announcing new $1.5b private debt placement and getting corporate family rating upgrade from Moody's: "Moody's Ratings expects Transocean to maintain adequate liquidity" 😂 Dk the pricing but the new '29/'31 notes will replace '25/'27 debt = stretching maturities 👍" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1778476161149858105) 2024-04-11T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OFS multiples via RBC. "Outliers" with low P/tangible BV: $esi.to 0.3x $nbr 0.5x $pd.to 0.9x $cfw.to 0.6x $step.to 0.8x All free cash flowing companies. Assets already went through impairments especially [----]. Complete market disregard for onshore energy services" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790118069039190405) 2024-05-13T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$oih $xes $xle $spy If you're searching for undervaluation in this overpriced market look no further than energy services. Truly bad day for the sector but E&P capex estimates (i.e. future services revenue) are trending up" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797761768091267541) 2024-06-03T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So after the $NE/ $DO deal the Top [--] players including $RIG and $VAL will have [--] of [--] contracted drillships slightly above 50%. According to Harvard Business Review this is consistent with Stage [--] of their four-stage "consolidation curve"" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1803516553884824037) 2024-06-19T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG implied dayrate on Deepwater Asgard extension 515k. Includes "additional services" but clearly an increase over the 505k in effect until June [----]. RIG management seem to continue focusing on preserving optionality https://www.oedigital.com/news/514756-transocean-s-deepwater-asgard-on-extended-stay-in-us-gulf-of-mexico https://www.oedigital.com/news/514756-transocean-s-deepwater-asgard-on-extended-stay-in-us-gulf-of-mexico" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1805931920477302901) 2024-06-26T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Three observations on Morgan Stanley's global rig forecast: [--]. Middle East land seems to be where the action is [--]. Floaters - steady growth if slower than what most want to see [--]. Jack-ups - robust so far but could [----] be a local peak $oih $slb $nbr $borr $rig" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1808225841505305070) 2024-07-02T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I did the math twice on the $VAL DS-17 contract and it comes to $580000 dayrate - closer to 600k than 500k Yes includes mobilization services etc. so not clean rate but still seems like very good news. Not sure why the stock isn't up more 🤷♂ https://www.valaris.com/news/news-details/2024/Valaris-Announces-Multi-Year-Contract-Award-for-Drillship-VALARIS-DS-17/default.aspx https://www.valaris.com/news/news-details/2024/Valaris-Announces-Multi-Year-Contract-Award-for-Drillship-VALARIS-DS-17/default.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1815390816262594743) 2024-07-22T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$borr $rig $ne $ofos $oih Recent offshore stats def show some "bifurcation" Doing good: - HE semis (100% total util) - 7G drillships - modern JUs Not so good: - lesser spec floaters - older JUs If the rising tide doesn't lift all boats EV/EBITDA won't be everything 😉" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1830663964310806663) 2024-09-02T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some $BORR porn from Evercore 👍😉" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1834609893300424881) 2024-09-13T15:07Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements "@MichaelAArouet The [--] of [---] are vastly over represented on Fintwit though 😉" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1835011327737172200) 2024-09-14T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$rig $ne $sdrl $borr $oih $ofos Take it with a grain of salt as not my favorite source but on 2-year forward EBITDA you could argue offshore driller multiples are back to the pandemic lows 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1835305230361071964) 2024-09-15T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Morgan Stanley says at $60 oil about 35% of Private E&P shale wells are "out of money"; at $70 that reduces to 20%; some privates need $100 to be "in the money" Much better curve for Public E&P - almost all "in the money" at $70 - Privates are 1/3 of U.S. production though" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1843374548349268401) 2024-10-07T19:35Z [----] followers, 39.9K engagements "Kansas City Fed energy survey: oil drilling breakeven price = $65 price to see "substantial increase" in drilling = $89 Seems consistent with the WTI trading range YTD 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1845927712747090418) 2024-10-14T20:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Barclays on $SLB: "Strong FCF and 25%+ EBITDA margins in the coming years" "Are we on the cusp of a deepwater FID boost as Namibia/Suriname provide another leg of growth"" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848829251660972454) 2024-10-22T20:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I don't think this should be anyone's base case but noteworthy call from S&P on the possibility of $15 U.S. gas an year from now 👀😮 Meanwhile $PTEN just commented their frac horsepower shrank 10% this year as they retire Tier [--] assets 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1849889858548051975) 2024-10-25T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So Barclays list [--] drillships that are idle or come off contract in [----] (the "white space"). Of these only [--] belong to $RIG and they don't roll off until the end of next year. Yet Transocean is the only driller Barclays is not bullish on 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1850978740794224765) 2024-10-28T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/ I am skeptical Trump can increase U.S. oil production but if he really tries one lever could be to reduce royalties on federal land; per Morgan Stanley these are the E&Ps with highest exposure to federal acreage:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856081135400305147) 2024-11-11T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val DNB offshore drilling stats; slight utilization losses across all asset classed except 2000-2009 jack-ups" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856082412427522081) 2024-11-11T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR repurchasing 1% of its share count in a week = good timing for this with the Arabia rig suspension news" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859307460152131893) 2024-11-20T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "(Probably correct) take from JPM on $BORR's Arabia II suspension = 20% FCF yield even if the rig finds no new work entire 2025; Arabia III now the only remaining exposure to Aramco" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1860662142392779087) 2024-11-24T12:29Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements "$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val Offshore stats via DNB. Compared to few weeks ago premium jack-up dayrates seem to have dropped a bit at 90-150k vs. 100-170k before. Utilizations practically the same. No major changes in the other market sectors" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1863315894635548733) 2024-12-01T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$oih $lbrt $pten $pump $acdc Frac demand forecast via JPM. Note the crew vs horsepower divergence: Crews -23% from [----] to [----] est. but HP up +2% over same time frame If diesel HP retirements continue market may get tighter than what share prices suggest 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866579024329445674) 2024-12-10T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866923598314684742) 2024-12-11T19:10Z [----] followers, 23.2K engagements ""No white space" for $RIG but probably no big contracting announcements before [----] H2 either. I doubt anyone looking for quick bucks is still in this stock but the impatient as usual may be disappointed 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1868727055984345279) 2024-12-16T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "EBITDA contract coverage for the offshore drillers is pretty consistent for '25 but $VAL/ $NE lagging behind for '26; this may pressure them to accept not-so-great rates while $RIG will likely be re-contracting in a stronger environment 🧐 From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂ https://t.co/iUqEwPhbhu From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂ https://t.co/iUqEwPhbhu" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1870919818569736295) 2024-12-22T19:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR bought back about 0.9% of its share count last week:" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1871178518878654602) 2024-12-23T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With #natgas at $4 today here are the land drillers with most exposure to the two major gassy basins. Patterson-UTI leads the pack. $PTEN also has high completions exposure to Appalachia so you probably get 2-for-1 😉" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1873797611846762760) 2024-12-30T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$oih $pten $nbr $lbrt [---] #natgas rigs "too few" per Wells Fargo commentary - need higher rig count to meet LNG export/data center power demand" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877484872425488498) 2025-01-09T22:37Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements "$ofos $rig $val $ne $borr The offshore soft patch evident in subsea tree awards as '24 will finish below '23 while half of expected '25 FIDs have been pushed out to '26. True we're buying long-lived assets not NTM Ebitda but folks shouldn't expect miracles in near term 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878863738822099294) 2025-01-13T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@okaythenme Makes sense ASEAN countries don't want to be Ukraine-ized" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881316994789876148) 2025-01-20T12:24Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements "$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val Offshore stats via DNB: Bad - slight dayrate drop from 2mo ago high spec UDW from 400-525k to 350-500k; premium JUs down 90-150k to 90-140k Okay - contracted JUs down from [---] to [---] all others stable Good - stock prices 50% off from the highs 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1886140637033935006) 2025-02-02T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR This recent note from JPM is about the bonds but good data point for anyone who's long the equity too - FY25e FCF of $175m based on rather conservative assumptions about the rigs suspended by Pemex" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1887935999281611158) 2025-02-07T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After $NE decision to retire Pacific Meltem Barclays think only [--] cold-stacked 7G rigs will be reactivated cf. [--] previously $RIG's Mylos/Apollo/Athena moved to the "likely no reactivation" group Cold-stacked rigs are a call option but not free est. $16m/yr cash cost 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1891176338695799053) 2025-02-16T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I was told Trump would be bearish for oil and emerging markets but $EC seems to be up 50% from the U.S. election already. Street analysts even starting to issue upgrades wow 🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1891923289527799856) 2025-02-18T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ofos $borr $rig $val Forward cash flow yields per DNB. Tbh 26/27e isn't very impressive and maybe short of the cost of capital. So if near term cash flow won't save us we're back to the main question - do we think the assets will be worth something past [----] or not 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1895531913399713966) 2025-02-28T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the [---] bps move up last few days; sharper move than November. $HYG's been flat so this is all BORR-specific. Would like to see this spike correct down as confirmation the worst is over for the stock too🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1898083564152913961) 2025-03-07T18:49Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements ""Jackups will do better than floaters at $60 oil" Maybe but maybe not $RIG's unsecured '28 bond (fmr. Global Marine) is now outperforming $BORR's secured bonds - this was not the situation less than [--] months ago when oil was $80 🤷♂ Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the [---] bps move up last few days; sharper move than November. $HYG's been flat so this is all BORR-specific. Would like to see this spike correct down as confirmation the worst is over for the stock too🤷♂ https://t.co/vxTzvNJ9lW Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1899205118182260972) 2025-03-10T21:06Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements "$OIH $XLE $XOP BofA's OFS research team is also throwing in the towel on US onshore services: - no drill baby drill with 3%-5% lower E&P capex - early signs gas D&C is improving (perhaps too much consensus now that gas oil) - E&Ps "do more with less" - per $ spent rigs/frac fleets used maybe but as measured by activity maybe not e.g. $EQT $EOG production grew much less than the 20% increase in their lateral footage per day quoted - $SM $CHRD $OVV "pruning" rig count - hopefully for the service sector that is fixable by the right oil price - if they are truly running out of inventory even a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901730957654143462) 2025-03-17T20:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PDS $PTEN $OIH If your hobbies include bottom fishing OFS stocks the US driller footprint may be of interest. If [----] turns out worse for oil / better for gas the market leaders in the gassy basins should in theory get some traction 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902120830534086958) 2025-03-18T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Speculation on Pemex's drilling plans from DNB that may be of interest to $BORR bulls. Demand for [--] jack-ups in [----] (cf. [--] in 2024) implies some of the suspended rigs would be coming back. I'd add that IMHO the demand from Pemex is not as sensitive to the oil price 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1907133503080194384) 2025-04-01T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DeItaone Why not 500% 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1909264391695908871) 2025-04-07T15:17Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements "Positive from $BORR among other good news the suspended Pemex rigs are going back to work 🙏 Now don't be shocked if the stock rallies a few days and then re-tests yesterday's lows on "oil macro sentiment" 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909514560794439878) 2025-04-08T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@vtchakarova Except it was the German auto industry that lobbied to get these tariff talks started. Mercedes sells more cars in China than in entire EU" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1910808293020229997) 2025-04-11T21:32Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements "$RIG projections via Barclays; $3.50 seemed like a bearish target not so long ago 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911839351115333988) 2025-04-14T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR 2025-2026 will be fine from debt perspective. The market's question apparently is would anyone need jack-ups in [----] & after 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1915810476019065191) 2025-04-25T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$OFOS $RIG $VAL $NE Twitter: "Debt makes RIG much worse than VAL/NE" JPM Fixed Income: "We rate Transocean's unsecured debt OW but are UW Noble/Valaris bonds" 🧐 I get bond RV thesis equity call but still ironic 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917300969647530215) 2025-04-29T19:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR JPM FI sees $100m unlevered FCF even with 65% utilization and dayrates 25-30% lower than [----]. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1921992936427839589) 2025-05-12T18:16Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements "$BORR Good articulation of the main issues - waiting for Pemex to make a move; if not the RCF will extend the runway potentially through [----] Meanwhile implied backlog-adjusted rig values are $100m cf. $250-$300m newbuild estimates" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1923076442637635908) 2025-05-15T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NE seems committed to supply management - get a contract or get scrapped🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924913592496713756) 2025-05-20T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/3 Nice to see $BORR's receivables from Pemex move under the "cash" column:" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1925514409482301796) 2025-05-22T11:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$xop $oih $acdc $pten Frac crews peaked in [----] but proppant kept increasing (completions intensity). It appears though [----] will be the 1st year since [----] when proppant is down too so we should finally see those production declines @jorge_moj 1/n 🛢Oil & Nat Gas Frac Crews ➡ [---] (-7 w-o-w) ➡ Year over year: [---] Note: Around 90% are in Oil basins The effects of low and falling fracs have not yet impacted US Oil production https://t.co/g523wr8m0F 1/n 🛢Oil & Nat Gas Frac Crews ➡ [---] (-7 w-o-w) ➡ Year over year: [---] Note: Around 90% are in Oil basins The effects of low and falling fracs have" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927071935386493061) 2025-05-26T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR all about these Pemex rig extensions now 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1928514689819935209) 2025-05-30T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ofos $borr $rig $ne $val $tdw Offshore capex commitments in [----] have been disappointing - see the expectations from last summer. So far [----] even looks on par with [----] & 2020: Bull thesis going forward = these are temporary issues due to bottlenecks etc. so it doesn't affect 2026+; Rystad has trimmed the [----] forecast but not by much Bear thesis = project FIDs will keep sliding to the right of the chart; next summer we will be wondering why [----] turned out so much below the expectations Historically the cycle turned around in [----] & [----] after oil prices bottomed. That's why it's sometimes" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928741306597257309) 2025-05-31T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR HR/Recruiting has already extended the Pemex rigs 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929238818839789890) 2025-06-01T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This time it's not just US shale - pretty much the whole world is reducing rig counts. We may find out that the projected "significant" increases in non-US non-OPEC supply are also price sensitive 🤷♂ $xop $xle Yesterdays rig count Oil rigs [---] to [---] Nat gas +5 to [---] Total [---] to [---] Ten rigs reclassed from oil to gas US shale is literally dying and nobody cares Yesterdays rig count Oil rigs [---] to [---] Nat gas +5 to [---] Total [---] to [---] Ten rigs reclassed from oil to gas US shale is literally dying and nobody cares" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932148000471581060) 2025-06-09T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG The implied conversion price of the [----] bonds was $5.25/sh whereas now 2/3 of the bonds will exchange for $3.09 or lower. This suggests 53M new shares cf. 32M embedded in the conversion option = 20M or 1-2% "unexpected dilution" Stock down -6%. Perhaps negative signal management isn't so confident and is jumping on opportunities to save cash perhaps we see a follow-up announcement soon that gives more insight into the rationale🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936068723930013806) 2025-06-20T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BORR 1) JPM FI research getting impatient - want to see [----] fixtures now 2) Bond market more favorable view - yields down [---] bps from April [--] peak but still higher than January 3) Paratus Energy - other big supplier to MX - doesn't have [----] contracts either 4) Mexico offshore rigs are at half their normal level - not sustainable may have already bottomed 5) Pemex payment goal posts keep getting pushed out - farmouts seem an obvious solution and it looks Sheinbaum has been supportive of the idea but nothing visible yet 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937592252898882007) 2025-06-24T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG not so "expensive" anymore esp. if deepwater drilling goes on past [----]. However "dead money" risk not insignificant incl. $VAL $NE too. Per Barclays contracted floaters down from [---] last summer to [---] now with expectation for bottom at [---] in q2/3 '26 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939766660828635449) 2025-06-30T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "US #natgas production needs to add 20-25 bcf/d by [----] per Barclays research - it is estimated this will take incremental 18-23 rigs (107 today) and 8-11 frac spreads (43 today) - mostly to be distributed between the Haynesville and Appalachia. Not big numbers relative to total US oil + gas rigs/spreads but could help service providers like $PTEN $LBRT $ACDC or $PD.TO with good exposure to the gassy basins - if they're still in business by [----] that is 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945231463084896649) 2025-07-15T21:18Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements "$oih $borr $rig Offshore driller commentary by JPM FI - lower dayrates but longer contracts; deep shallow water 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949883806254551347) 2025-07-28T17:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$RIG This was already pre-signaled 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954972703871447468) 2025-08-11T18:26Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements "$RIG $NE $VAL Barclays: "We have greater conviction in an offshore recovery in 2H26"" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957413573484859526) 2025-08-18T12:05Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements "$BORR [---] DMA for the first time in about a year 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960049534865682694) 2025-08-25T18:39Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@EnergyRealist25 The Energy Realist
The Energy Realist posts on X about $rig, $borr, $oih, $val the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 49.56% cryptocurrencies 26.55% finance 24.78% countries 6.19% technology brands 4.42% formula 1 0.88% social networks 0.88%
Social topic influence $rig #75, $borr #3, $oih #17, $val #14, val #170, oil 15.04%, $ne 13.27%, $pten #2, $xle 8.85%, gas 7.96%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @gringoinvesting @mxschumacher @ayusovalue @tinformernews @donwinslow @tommydeepwater @michaelaarouet @okaythenme @deitaone @vtchakarova @jorgemoj @sfarringtonbkc @tylerhardt @corona_n_lyme
Top assets mentioned Transocean LTD. (RIG) Borr Drilling Limited (BORR) Validity (VAL) Noble Corporation (NE) Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (PTEN) ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT) PumpBTC (Governance token) (PUMP) Schlumberger NV (SLB) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) Hippo Protocol (HP) LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Ecopetrol S.A (EC) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) Halliburton Company (HAL) PolkaBridge (PBR) Morgan Stanley (MS) Cryptonex (CNX)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"With all #DeepWater bullishness in my feed it was quite a shocker to see retail dumped drillers last month (S&P's capital flows analysis): At the end of the day I guess the big bad "white space" did scare away folks 🤷♂ Noteworthy though institutional investors bought quite a bit: I'd say in this case the institutional guys are showing they may very well be the "smart money" 😉 $borr $val $rig $ne $do $sdrl $oih #oott #eft"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ec $xle Short Ecopetrol note based on a couple insights I saw in some recent research. The first part is the forecasted production profile from S&P Commodity Insights: $EC should see a slight increase in [----] production to 725-730 kboe/d up from [---] kboe/d in [----]. However given Gustavo Petro isn't approving new exploration licenses the Colombian production is expected to decline in the next few years. The company has been relying on its expertise in enhanced oil recovery to mitigate this and developing existing licenses but at some point new exploration will be needed. Instead Ecopetrol is"
X Link 2023-12-22T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Back to back bullish calls (2x to PT) on $BORR and $TDW from Evercore; offshore capex may drop in '25 but there should be sharp rebound in '26 🙏"
X Link 2024-11-13T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$VAL realizing the easiest way to unlock shareholder value is to let $RIG manage their drillships 😂 Holy Guacamoly $RIG to acquire $VAL didn't see that coming. All share deal with RIG owning 53% of the combined company. https://t.co/hUzXLRrJsQ Holy Guacamoly $RIG to acquire $VAL didn't see that coming. All share deal with RIG owning 53% of the combined company. https://t.co/hUzXLRrJsQ"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG talking up jack-ups definitely wasn't on my bingo card though - and that seems to be pushing up $BORR too. Ironically when Transocean exited jack-ups in [----] it sold its fleet to. Borr 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GringoInvesting The Enverus weekly I see shows [---] gas rigs overall though prior week was +5 so likely timing & definitions misalignment. But I also just saw $CNX is doing +15% capex increase so safe to assume there will be more gas drilling esp. in Haynesville 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Saudi Aramco is bringing back [--] suspended $NBR rigs; $BORR up too likely on the Aramco association but if land rigs are coming back offshore may do too🤷♂"
X Link 2025-11-03T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OIH $ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PD.TO $PTEN North America rig expectations via JPM: - gas rigs up to [---] - oil rigs to fall further - Canada flat 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-12-14T20:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$oih $borr $val $plsv Jackups commentary from DNB - Saudi is "back" Mexico not quite yet. NOCs now control 77% of demand which makes it more robust to oil prices; the downside is NOCs may have stronger preference for local suppliers esp. when they have equity stake 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-12-30T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ACDC $LBRT $PTEN $PUMP With simul/trimul frac more proppant etc. it's prob time to retire the frac spread count as activity measure. Fewer fleets + more HHP per fleet = same HHP. Activity is declining but not as much as fleet count suggests 🤷♂ https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1965145329411785153 US shale frac spreads continue to drop to new cycle lows as wells produce negative full-cycle NPV10's at current commodity prices Very important data point to watch in 1H26 with volatile pricing ahead further M&A expected and remaining acreage quality further degrading. 🛢💰"
X Link 2026-01-11T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What I found interesting from the $HAL call was how often management mentioned stacking equipment (particularly U.S. land & frac fleets) 🧐 Also relevant to $ACDC $CFW.TO $LBRT $PUMP $HAL numbers look ✅👌 https://t.co/SY49Nu7WO3 $HAL numbers look ✅👌 https://t.co/SY49Nu7WO3"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OIH $BORR $PLSV.OL $VAL The Saudi jack-up tenders are slowly tightening the market. Paratus and others may be fine companies but there is only one stock offering 100% exposure. This may result in premium if other offshore segments such as OSVs lag JUs as capital returns 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LBRT -9% on the convertible bonds news and weighing down on $PUMP too $ACDC / $PTEN not reacting as much - going all in on data centers can cut both ways especially when the AI stalwarts themselves have been under pressure 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LYB breaking out above [---] dma on elevated volume. Maybe they won't cut the dividend after all 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New 52-week highs for $RIG too. But I wouldn't say nobody cared. Rather many got scared 🤷♂ $RIG nobody cared. https://t.co/Xn3iQ1RN9c $RIG nobody cared. https://t.co/Xn3iQ1RN9c"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Private #natgas operators looking content to add rigs in the 3.50-4.00 HH range - and if they are why should price move higher (absent periodic weather distortions) 🧐"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jefferies says getting Venezuela to 3m bbl/d will be $8 bn/yr $OIH revenue; $SLB could see +$500m EBITDA/yr So under bullish assumptions (oil $100 in 2014) SLB gets just +5% of '28E EBITDA. I hope there's more than Ven behind the OFS rally as the rug pull could be massive 🧐"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LYB doesn't benefit from cheap oil 🤦♂ The ideal scenario is low US #natgas / high oil which hinders Asian competitors running on naphtha feedstock I think we are headed into a period of cheap oil or stable oil around $60 chemical companies like $BAK $LYB and $DOW will benefit from cheap oil $BAK gets you in Brazil which will give you the most torque given the move to emerging markets https://t.co/ZOWXHumozE I think we are headed into a period of cheap oil or stable oil around $60 chemical companies like $BAK $LYB and $DOW will benefit from cheap oil $BAK gets you in Brazil which will give"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$acdc $lbrt $pten $pump Great Patterson-UTI slide visualizing why Primary Vision frac spreads haven't correlated to lower oil production so far 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mxschumacher @TinFormer_News You have to look at the relative importance of diff feedstocks. For $LYB the bulk of manufacturing is in the U.S. so gas price is key. High oil hurts Asian plants more so LYB benefits. Analysts even coined the term "US ethane advantage""
X Link 2026-02-07T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"From S&P Global Feb #natgas outlook - "we expect E&P companies to start ramping up drilling" - with $BKR now showing Haynesville at [--] rigs vs. [--] a year ago (+7 WoW) prob based expectation & looks NYMEX 4-4.50 enough to incentivize supply 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This also makes a bit funny the drillships vs jack-ups debates we periodically see on X 😂 The barbell strategy was always the one that made most sense"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG's 7.50% Apr-2031 (junior) bonds have gone up from [--] yesterday to [---] today - the deleveraging part of the merger thesis seems to be working out so far. The equity is down today but doubt we'll come close to yesterday's 180m volume = 6x the average🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@donwinslow What media do you watch 🤔 Bloomberg and CNBC have been talking about the bond market nonstop this week"
X Link 2025-04-12T09:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AyusoValue Do you perhaps have any views on $EDEN.PA"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://seekingalpha.com/news/4006146-petrobras-upgraded-to-buy-at-ubs-seeing-20-dividend-yield-potential-for-2024 https://seekingalpha.com/news/4006146-petrobras-upgraded-to-buy-at-ubs-seeing-20-dividend-yield-potential-for-2024"
X Link 2023-08-24T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On the deepwater front Transocean put up a new presentation today. Nice slide showing rig demand is projected to grow even at $40 oil; offshore services are turning from the most vulnerable segment of the energy space into the most resilient one $rig $val $ne $sdrl $oih"
X Link 2023-08-29T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here we go 👏 Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://t.co/QYSyD4lKlf Nice job $pbr $ewz Now please hire more $rig drillships😀 https://t.co/QYSyD4lKlf"
X Link 2023-08-31T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just wanted to clarify that Transocean's registration filing announced today relates to insider Perestroika's exercise of its conversion option under the '27 exchangeable bonds back in April. This is old news and the dilution had already happened $rig https://seekingalpha.com/news/4008879-transocean-says-selling-stockholder-offering-826m-shares https://seekingalpha.com/news/4008879-transocean-says-selling-stockholder-offering-826m-shares"
X Link 2023-09-04T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ewz Good writeup on #Brazil. I believe the 2020s will be about EMs + commodities not AI. Source: Moody's Capital Mkts Research"
X Link 2023-09-16T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$oih $iez $xes $wfrd $xle If you still doubt we're in an oilfield services bull market/new E&P capex cycle take note that even Weatherford is now making money 😲"
X Link 2023-10-29T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There's some disappointment with $RIG after the earnings like the post below and that's understandable- especially if you entered close to $9 (which is why you scale in gradually right). So probably easier for me to talk "long-term" when my cost basis is in the low $3s and I acknowledge I might have had a different perspective if my cost was $8 (theoretically it doesn't matter but the psychology is different). However if you were looking to make a quick buck this isn't the stock for you. Even after the current drawdown $RIG is up +85% over the last [--] years. However if you missed the two best"
X Link 2023-11-01T17:35Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements
"$xle $xop $oih #oil #copper One reason the macro picture (and particularly commodities demand) is so blurry is that the world's major economies are so out of phase with each other. Whatever narrative you believe in you can find data points to support it"
X Link 2023-11-10T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Valuations in the offshore drilling group aren't really that disparate. From high to low EV/est. [----] EBITDA: $RIG - 6.8x $BORR - 4.8x $NE - 4.7x $VAL - 4.5x $SDRL.OL - 4.4x $DO - 4.4x $DDRIL.OL - 2.1x Most are in a tight 4-5x range. Transocean is an outlier on the upper end but this multiple can come down quickly with reactivations from its massive cold-stacked pile = option value. Dolphin seemingly an outlier on the lower end but let's acknowledge they had [--] rigs + [--] now acquired from Transocean: Paul Lloyd (1990) Transocean Leader (1987) So their 2x multiple probably reflects the less than"
X Link 2023-11-15T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NBR $ESI.TO $PD.TO $PTEN $HP $OIH The trend toward longer horizontal wells in U.S. shale may be a partial explanation for why U.S. production has seemingly exceeded expectations despite lower rig counts. However Helmerich & Payne mentioned that each rig is now also drilling more wells per year despite the average well being longer: "In the last [--] years average lateral length has doubled to over [-----] feet and at the same time the well cycle times have improved by 22%. This means that each FlexRig today drills about [---] more wells on average per year and those rigs have doubled the exposure"
X Link 2023-11-19T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$borr $ddril.ol $ne $nol.ol $odl.ol $shllf $sdrl $rig $val $oih Floater rig demand-supply bridge from Arctic Securities' mildly bearish "prolonged mid-cycle"/"roll over risk" report (couple weeks dated but probably still relevant). Looks they see [----] supporting [---] rigs (drillships + semis) with [---] rigs potentially competing for this work = 90% marketed utilization. Interestingly to get to [---] supply the bridge analysis assumes Transocean would re-activate [--] drillships + Henry Goodrich. Yet RIG is the only ticker rated "hold" by Arctic; everyone else is a "buy." I get RIG is more expensive"
X Link 2023-11-28T20:35Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"U.S. RIG TRENDS AND SHALE PRODUCTIVITY Two years ago commentators were negative on OFS because E&P capital discipline would leave services with little pricing power. Well we saw how "capital discipline" went especially among private E&Ps. However and ironically the OFS drilling contractors have actually shown pretty good discipline so far. $NOV's [----] rig census says that while the active U.S. rig fleet decreased 24% from the prior census rig utilization increased from 54% to 58% Some of it has to do with NOV's definitions which exclude from available supply rigs inactive [--] or more years"
X Link 2023-12-03T21:00Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements
"SHALE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND PRIVATES I was a bit skeptical we can just attribute all the surprise in shale production growth to private E&Ps but a research note from S&P seems to support this thesis too. Further this growth has been super concentrated - just [--] privates (out of 11000) apparently added [------] bpd relative to Dec. 2019: So for the lack of "capital discipline" you can blame: - Endeavor - Mewbourne - Kaiser Francis - CrownQuest But since they don't have investor relations departments they won't care much. It is rumored the PE funds behind these operators are looking to exit so"
X Link 2023-12-05T17:26Z [----] followers, 55.9K engagements
"$oih $xle $nbr $esi.to $rig $borr S&P's Upstream Insights updates its capex forecast; 2023-2027 CAGR: onshore +1% offshore + 7.2% This implies offshore +40% in [--] years; also for 1% revenue growth EBITDA will prob grow 1.5% due to operating leverage"
X Link 2024-01-07T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"First time in Las Palmas and I didn't realize it was an open-air rig museum. From L to R: [--]. $NE's stacked Pacific Meltem & Scirocco [--]. $VAL's DS-7 supposedly being re-activated [--]. DS-11 stacked [--]. $NE's Faye Kozack - I assume just enjoying the "white space" No $RIG's"
X Link 2024-01-13T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"IMHO the $RIG selloff isn't about RIG as the entire $XLE/ $OIH sector including giants like $XOM and $SLB is getting pummeled. RIG is simply higher beta. I took a look just now at RIG's credit spreads YTD: 1) 7.45% 15-Apr-27 unsecured notes OAS tightened by [--] bps 2) 7.00% 01-Jun-28 sr. unsecured notes OAS tighter by [--] bps 3) 7.50% 15-Apr-31 sr. unsecured notes OAS wider by [--] bps 4) 9.35% 15-Dec-41 sr. unsecured notes OAS tighter by [--] bps The debt and equity markets don't appear to be speaking in one voice. Notes: a) OAS = option-adjusted spread as practically all these issues are callable;"
X Link 2024-01-17T14:37Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"1/ Digesting $SLB's must-listen earnings call: The international capex cycle continues: This is why you need OFS stocks. Energy security/NOC driven growth isn't bullish for ShaleCos or #COM plays. Super bullish for OFS though"
X Link 2024-01-20T14:53Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements
"1/ $HAL following $SLB with EPS beat and divvy increase. Nice articulation of the services thesis: a) the world needs more oil + b) rising service intensity = more services needed to produce the same amount of oil"
X Link 2024-01-23T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR's volatility won't hint at it but in theory jack-ups demand is more robust than the demand for floaters and has seen smaller drawdowns: One reason for the divergence has been the different customer mix. NOCs which have more steady capex plans have been increasing their share of jack-ups usage: Does that make jack-ups a better investment Not necessarily. The flip side of the coin is jack-ups supply whether newbuilds reactivations or upgrades is more responsive. Right now the orderbook is at historical lows of less than 5% of the existing fleet: But 5% isn't zero and can scale up easier"
X Link 2024-01-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"" $RIG is insolvent at 450k dayrates " Here's a quick exercise using the Q3 numbers which are the latest reported: adjusted EBITDA = $162m revenue = $713m average dayrate = $391300 revenue if the dayrate was 450k = $820m EBITDA if the dayrate was 450k = $269m cash interest = $139m* EBITDA interest coverage = 1.95x Not great but insolvent Mind you Q3 capex was only $50m. At 450k dayrates RIG can service debt and capex without issuing equity. No recommendation DYODD. * The total interest is $232m but $93m of that is a non-cash component related to the exercises of the convertible debt."
X Link 2024-01-31T20:38Z [----] followers, 18.5K engagements
"Permian well productivity trends via Commodity Insights. Productivity is rolling over at least when normalized for lateral length. $oih $xop"
X Link 2024-02-05T19:38Z [----] followers, 12K engagements
"$RIG's 7.45% April [----] notes which I watch the most as they are in my portfolio have been doing well this week so I took a look at all other non-convertible debt too. I have layered on top of the debt schedule the bid-ask midpoint as of today (note the quotes may vary a bit among providers). Virtually all secured debt is above par. Unsecured debt is below par but the yields are still pretty good. Generally yields are at 9-10% for the unsecured debt and 7.0% - 7.5% for the secured debt. As the 10-year treasury is at 4% a big chunk of that is just the underlying risk-free rate. Something"
X Link 2024-03-07T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$xle $xop $oih Breakeven estimates for new oil wells from the recent Dallas Fed energy survey now vs. two years ago; the marginal Permian barrel cost has gone up from $54 to $70; probably why each $CL dip into the $60s has been fairly short-lived:"
X Link 2024-04-06T16:45Z [----] followers, 66.8K engagements
"$xle $oih $rig $val $ne $sdrl $borr Offshore drilling market stats courtesy of DNB; the tightest segments are: HE 6G semis - 100% marketed utilization 7G drillships - 92% Jack-ups newer than [----] - 96% (95% for 2000-2009 JUs)"
X Link 2024-04-09T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG announcing new $1.5b private debt placement and getting corporate family rating upgrade from Moody's: "Moody's Ratings expects Transocean to maintain adequate liquidity" 😂 Dk the pricing but the new '29/'31 notes will replace '25/'27 debt = stretching maturities 👍"
X Link 2024-04-11T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OFS multiples via RBC. "Outliers" with low P/tangible BV: $esi.to 0.3x $nbr 0.5x $pd.to 0.9x $cfw.to 0.6x $step.to 0.8x All free cash flowing companies. Assets already went through impairments especially [----]. Complete market disregard for onshore energy services"
X Link 2024-05-13T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$oih $xes $xle $spy If you're searching for undervaluation in this overpriced market look no further than energy services. Truly bad day for the sector but E&P capex estimates (i.e. future services revenue) are trending up"
X Link 2024-06-03T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So after the $NE/ $DO deal the Top [--] players including $RIG and $VAL will have [--] of [--] contracted drillships slightly above 50%. According to Harvard Business Review this is consistent with Stage [--] of their four-stage "consolidation curve""
X Link 2024-06-19T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG implied dayrate on Deepwater Asgard extension 515k. Includes "additional services" but clearly an increase over the 505k in effect until June [----]. RIG management seem to continue focusing on preserving optionality https://www.oedigital.com/news/514756-transocean-s-deepwater-asgard-on-extended-stay-in-us-gulf-of-mexico https://www.oedigital.com/news/514756-transocean-s-deepwater-asgard-on-extended-stay-in-us-gulf-of-mexico"
X Link 2024-06-26T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Three observations on Morgan Stanley's global rig forecast: [--]. Middle East land seems to be where the action is [--]. Floaters - steady growth if slower than what most want to see [--]. Jack-ups - robust so far but could [----] be a local peak $oih $slb $nbr $borr $rig"
X Link 2024-07-02T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I did the math twice on the $VAL DS-17 contract and it comes to $580000 dayrate - closer to 600k than 500k Yes includes mobilization services etc. so not clean rate but still seems like very good news. Not sure why the stock isn't up more 🤷♂ https://www.valaris.com/news/news-details/2024/Valaris-Announces-Multi-Year-Contract-Award-for-Drillship-VALARIS-DS-17/default.aspx https://www.valaris.com/news/news-details/2024/Valaris-Announces-Multi-Year-Contract-Award-for-Drillship-VALARIS-DS-17/default.aspx"
X Link 2024-07-22T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$borr $rig $ne $ofos $oih Recent offshore stats def show some "bifurcation" Doing good: - HE semis (100% total util) - 7G drillships - modern JUs Not so good: - lesser spec floaters - older JUs If the rising tide doesn't lift all boats EV/EBITDA won't be everything 😉"
X Link 2024-09-02T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some $BORR porn from Evercore 👍😉"
X Link 2024-09-13T15:07Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements
"@MichaelAArouet The [--] of [---] are vastly over represented on Fintwit though 😉"
X Link 2024-09-14T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$rig $ne $sdrl $borr $oih $ofos Take it with a grain of salt as not my favorite source but on 2-year forward EBITDA you could argue offshore driller multiples are back to the pandemic lows 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-09-15T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Morgan Stanley says at $60 oil about 35% of Private E&P shale wells are "out of money"; at $70 that reduces to 20%; some privates need $100 to be "in the money" Much better curve for Public E&P - almost all "in the money" at $70 - Privates are 1/3 of U.S. production though"
X Link 2024-10-07T19:35Z [----] followers, 39.9K engagements
"Kansas City Fed energy survey: oil drilling breakeven price = $65 price to see "substantial increase" in drilling = $89 Seems consistent with the WTI trading range YTD 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-10-14T20:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Barclays on $SLB: "Strong FCF and 25%+ EBITDA margins in the coming years" "Are we on the cusp of a deepwater FID boost as Namibia/Suriname provide another leg of growth""
X Link 2024-10-22T20:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't think this should be anyone's base case but noteworthy call from S&P on the possibility of $15 U.S. gas an year from now 👀😮 Meanwhile $PTEN just commented their frac horsepower shrank 10% this year as they retire Tier [--] assets 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-10-25T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So Barclays list [--] drillships that are idle or come off contract in [----] (the "white space"). Of these only [--] belong to $RIG and they don't roll off until the end of next year. Yet Transocean is the only driller Barclays is not bullish on 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-10-28T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/ I am skeptical Trump can increase U.S. oil production but if he really tries one lever could be to reduce royalties on federal land; per Morgan Stanley these are the E&Ps with highest exposure to federal acreage:"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val DNB offshore drilling stats; slight utilization losses across all asset classed except 2000-2009 jack-ups"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR repurchasing 1% of its share count in a week = good timing for this with the Arabia rig suspension news"
X Link 2024-11-20T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(Probably correct) take from JPM on $BORR's Arabia II suspension = 20% FCF yield even if the rig finds no new work entire 2025; Arabia III now the only remaining exposure to Aramco"
X Link 2024-11-24T12:29Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements
"$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val Offshore stats via DNB. Compared to few weeks ago premium jack-up dayrates seem to have dropped a bit at 90-150k vs. 100-170k before. Utilizations practically the same. No major changes in the other market sectors"
X Link 2024-12-01T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$oih $lbrt $pten $pump $acdc Frac demand forecast via JPM. Note the crew vs horsepower divergence: Crews -23% from [----] to [----] est. but HP up +2% over same time frame If diesel HP retirements continue market may get tighter than what share prices suggest 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-12-10T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-12-11T19:10Z [----] followers, 23.2K engagements
""No white space" for $RIG but probably no big contracting announcements before [----] H2 either. I doubt anyone looking for quick bucks is still in this stock but the impatient as usual may be disappointed 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-12-16T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"EBITDA contract coverage for the offshore drillers is pretty consistent for '25 but $VAL/ $NE lagging behind for '26; this may pressure them to accept not-so-great rates while $RIG will likely be re-contracting in a stronger environment 🧐 From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂ https://t.co/iUqEwPhbhu From $RIG the "too much leverage" to RIG "the most contracted" 🤷♂ https://t.co/iUqEwPhbhu"
X Link 2024-12-22T19:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR bought back about 0.9% of its share count last week:"
X Link 2024-12-23T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With #natgas at $4 today here are the land drillers with most exposure to the two major gassy basins. Patterson-UTI leads the pack. $PTEN also has high completions exposure to Appalachia so you probably get 2-for-1 😉"
X Link 2024-12-30T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$oih $pten $nbr $lbrt [---] #natgas rigs "too few" per Wells Fargo commentary - need higher rig count to meet LNG export/data center power demand"
X Link 2025-01-09T22:37Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements
"$ofos $rig $val $ne $borr The offshore soft patch evident in subsea tree awards as '24 will finish below '23 while half of expected '25 FIDs have been pushed out to '26. True we're buying long-lived assets not NTM Ebitda but folks shouldn't expect miracles in near term 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-01-13T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@okaythenme Makes sense ASEAN countries don't want to be Ukraine-ized"
X Link 2025-01-20T12:24Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements
"$ofos $oih $borr $rig $val Offshore stats via DNB: Bad - slight dayrate drop from 2mo ago high spec UDW from 400-525k to 350-500k; premium JUs down 90-150k to 90-140k Okay - contracted JUs down from [---] to [---] all others stable Good - stock prices 50% off from the highs 😂"
X Link 2025-02-02T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR This recent note from JPM is about the bonds but good data point for anyone who's long the equity too - FY25e FCF of $175m based on rather conservative assumptions about the rigs suspended by Pemex"
X Link 2025-02-07T18:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After $NE decision to retire Pacific Meltem Barclays think only [--] cold-stacked 7G rigs will be reactivated cf. [--] previously $RIG's Mylos/Apollo/Athena moved to the "likely no reactivation" group Cold-stacked rigs are a call option but not free est. $16m/yr cash cost 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-02-16T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I was told Trump would be bearish for oil and emerging markets but $EC seems to be up 50% from the U.S. election already. Street analysts even starting to issue upgrades wow 🧐"
X Link 2025-02-18T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ofos $borr $rig $val Forward cash flow yields per DNB. Tbh 26/27e isn't very impressive and maybe short of the cost of capital. So if near term cash flow won't save us we're back to the main question - do we think the assets will be worth something past [----] or not 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-02-28T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the [---] bps move up last few days; sharper move than November. $HYG's been flat so this is all BORR-specific. Would like to see this spike correct down as confirmation the worst is over for the stock too🤷♂"
X Link 2025-03-07T18:49Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements
""Jackups will do better than floaters at $60 oil" Maybe but maybe not $RIG's unsecured '28 bond (fmr. Global Marine) is now outperforming $BORR's secured bonds - this was not the situation less than [--] months ago when oil was $80 🤷♂ Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the [---] bps move up last few days; sharper move than November. $HYG's been flat so this is all BORR-specific. Would like to see this spike correct down as confirmation the worst is over for the stock too🤷♂ https://t.co/vxTzvNJ9lW Hadn't looked at $BORR's bonds in some time and not pleased with the"
X Link 2025-03-10T21:06Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements
"$OIH $XLE $XOP BofA's OFS research team is also throwing in the towel on US onshore services: - no drill baby drill with 3%-5% lower E&P capex - early signs gas D&C is improving (perhaps too much consensus now that gas oil) - E&Ps "do more with less" - per $ spent rigs/frac fleets used maybe but as measured by activity maybe not e.g. $EQT $EOG production grew much less than the 20% increase in their lateral footage per day quoted - $SM $CHRD $OVV "pruning" rig count - hopefully for the service sector that is fixable by the right oil price - if they are truly running out of inventory even a"
X Link 2025-03-17T20:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PDS $PTEN $OIH If your hobbies include bottom fishing OFS stocks the US driller footprint may be of interest. If [----] turns out worse for oil / better for gas the market leaders in the gassy basins should in theory get some traction 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-03-18T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Speculation on Pemex's drilling plans from DNB that may be of interest to $BORR bulls. Demand for [--] jack-ups in [----] (cf. [--] in 2024) implies some of the suspended rigs would be coming back. I'd add that IMHO the demand from Pemex is not as sensitive to the oil price 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-01T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DeItaone Why not 500% 😂"
X Link 2025-04-07T15:17Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements
"Positive from $BORR among other good news the suspended Pemex rigs are going back to work 🙏 Now don't be shocked if the stock rallies a few days and then re-tests yesterday's lows on "oil macro sentiment" 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-08T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@vtchakarova Except it was the German auto industry that lobbied to get these tariff talks started. Mercedes sells more cars in China than in entire EU"
X Link 2025-04-11T21:32Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements
"$RIG projections via Barclays; $3.50 seemed like a bearish target not so long ago 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-14T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR 2025-2026 will be fine from debt perspective. The market's question apparently is would anyone need jack-ups in [----] & after 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-25T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OFOS $RIG $VAL $NE Twitter: "Debt makes RIG much worse than VAL/NE" JPM Fixed Income: "We rate Transocean's unsecured debt OW but are UW Noble/Valaris bonds" 🧐 I get bond RV thesis equity call but still ironic 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR JPM FI sees $100m unlevered FCF even with 65% utilization and dayrates 25-30% lower than [----]. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-05-12T18:16Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements
"$BORR Good articulation of the main issues - waiting for Pemex to make a move; if not the RCF will extend the runway potentially through [----] Meanwhile implied backlog-adjusted rig values are $100m cf. $250-$300m newbuild estimates"
X Link 2025-05-15T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NE seems committed to supply management - get a contract or get scrapped🤷♂"
X Link 2025-05-20T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/3 Nice to see $BORR's receivables from Pemex move under the "cash" column:"
X Link 2025-05-22T11:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$xop $oih $acdc $pten Frac crews peaked in [----] but proppant kept increasing (completions intensity). It appears though [----] will be the 1st year since [----] when proppant is down too so we should finally see those production declines @jorge_moj 1/n 🛢Oil & Nat Gas Frac Crews ➡ [---] (-7 w-o-w) ➡ Year over year: [---] Note: Around 90% are in Oil basins The effects of low and falling fracs have not yet impacted US Oil production https://t.co/g523wr8m0F 1/n 🛢Oil & Nat Gas Frac Crews ➡ [---] (-7 w-o-w) ➡ Year over year: [---] Note: Around 90% are in Oil basins The effects of low and falling fracs have"
X Link 2025-05-26T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR all about these Pemex rig extensions now 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-05-30T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ofos $borr $rig $ne $val $tdw Offshore capex commitments in [----] have been disappointing - see the expectations from last summer. So far [----] even looks on par with [----] & 2020: Bull thesis going forward = these are temporary issues due to bottlenecks etc. so it doesn't affect 2026+; Rystad has trimmed the [----] forecast but not by much Bear thesis = project FIDs will keep sliding to the right of the chart; next summer we will be wondering why [----] turned out so much below the expectations Historically the cycle turned around in [----] & [----] after oil prices bottomed. That's why it's sometimes"
X Link 2025-05-31T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR HR/Recruiting has already extended the Pemex rigs 😂"
X Link 2025-06-01T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This time it's not just US shale - pretty much the whole world is reducing rig counts. We may find out that the projected "significant" increases in non-US non-OPEC supply are also price sensitive 🤷♂ $xop $xle Yesterdays rig count Oil rigs [---] to [---] Nat gas +5 to [---] Total [---] to [---] Ten rigs reclassed from oil to gas US shale is literally dying and nobody cares Yesterdays rig count Oil rigs [---] to [---] Nat gas +5 to [---] Total [---] to [---] Ten rigs reclassed from oil to gas US shale is literally dying and nobody cares"
X Link 2025-06-09T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG The implied conversion price of the [----] bonds was $5.25/sh whereas now 2/3 of the bonds will exchange for $3.09 or lower. This suggests 53M new shares cf. 32M embedded in the conversion option = 20M or 1-2% "unexpected dilution" Stock down -6%. Perhaps negative signal management isn't so confident and is jumping on opportunities to save cash perhaps we see a follow-up announcement soon that gives more insight into the rationale🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-20T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BORR 1) JPM FI research getting impatient - want to see [----] fixtures now 2) Bond market more favorable view - yields down [---] bps from April [--] peak but still higher than January 3) Paratus Energy - other big supplier to MX - doesn't have [----] contracts either 4) Mexico offshore rigs are at half their normal level - not sustainable may have already bottomed 5) Pemex payment goal posts keep getting pushed out - farmouts seem an obvious solution and it looks Sheinbaum has been supportive of the idea but nothing visible yet 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-24T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG not so "expensive" anymore esp. if deepwater drilling goes on past [----]. However "dead money" risk not insignificant incl. $VAL $NE too. Per Barclays contracted floaters down from [---] last summer to [---] now with expectation for bottom at [---] in q2/3 '26 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-30T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"US #natgas production needs to add 20-25 bcf/d by [----] per Barclays research - it is estimated this will take incremental 18-23 rigs (107 today) and 8-11 frac spreads (43 today) - mostly to be distributed between the Haynesville and Appalachia. Not big numbers relative to total US oil + gas rigs/spreads but could help service providers like $PTEN $LBRT $ACDC or $PD.TO with good exposure to the gassy basins - if they're still in business by [----] that is 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-15T21:18Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements
"$oih $borr $rig Offshore driller commentary by JPM FI - lower dayrates but longer contracts; deep shallow water 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-28T17:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG This was already pre-signaled 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-08-11T18:26Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements
"$RIG $NE $VAL Barclays: "We have greater conviction in an offshore recovery in 2H26""
X Link 2025-08-18T12:05Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements
"$BORR [---] DMA for the first time in about a year 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-08-25T18:39Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements
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