#  @DuckPond_VR DuckPond Value Research DuckPond Value Research posts on X about $bayn, $frvia, $iag, $bayry the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1724125092244840448/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +3.40% - [--] Month [------] +183% - [--] Months [------] +4.30% - [--] Year [-------] +3.70% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1724125092244840448/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +10% - [--] Month [--] +61% - [--] Months [---] +133% - [--] Year [---] +63% ### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1724125092244840448/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.18% - [--] Month [-----] +2.70% - [--] Months [-----] +13% - [--] Year [-----] +44% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1724125092244840448/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [$bayn](/topic/$bayn) #1, [$frvia](/topic/$frvia) #1, [$iag](/topic/$iag), [$bayry](/topic/$bayry), [$axl](/topic/$axl) #16, [$dwl](/topic/$dwl) #1, [$cpri](/topic/$cpri), [$lbtyk](/topic/$lbtyk) #1, [$tpr](/topic/$tpr), [$lbtya](/topic/$lbtya) #1 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@investorsrelat3](/creator/undefined) [@horosfunds](/creator/undefined) [@yesmanmo](/creator/undefined) [@abrilquim](/creator/undefined) [@invtractiriano](/creator/undefined) [@realbillgross](/creator/undefined) [@krevixd](/creator/undefined) [@azvalor](/creator/undefined) [@paulcerro](/creator/undefined) [@gestiprudent](/creator/undefined) [@jruizruiz](/creator/undefined) [@matusstraznicky](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@faan85](/creator/undefined) [@vanguardeconomy](/creator/undefined) [@duckpondvr](/creator/undefined) [@martinv1816](/creator/undefined) [@acapi10](/creator/undefined) [@galiciainvestor](/creator/undefined) [@inversornovat0](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Iagon (IAG)](/topic/$iag) [Axelar (AXL)](/topic/$axl) [Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI)](/topic/$cpri) [Liberty Global, plc. Class C (LBTYK)](/topic/$lbtyk) [Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)](/topic/$tpr) [Liberty Global (LBTYA)](/topic/$lbtya) [FarLaunch (FAR)](/topic/$far) [Liberty Global plc Class B (LBTYB)](/topic/$lbtyb) [Medicle (MDI)](/topic/$mdi) [Corteva Inc (CTVA)](/topic/$ctva) [First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR)](/topic/$fr) [Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. ADS (TGS)](/topic/$tgs) [Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)](/topic/$fcx) [SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP (SEM)](/topic/$sem) [FAME AI (FMC)](/topic/$fmc) [Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)](/topic/$aem) [Newmont Corporation (NEM)](/topic/$nem) [AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)](/topic/$au) [Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)](/topic/$vmc) [Autoliv, Inc. (ALV)](/topic/$alv) [Cipher (CPR)](/topic/$cpr) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND)](/topic/$bynd) [Dana Incorporated (DAN)](/topic/$dan) [Aptiv PLC (APTV)](/topic/$aptv) [The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)](/topic/$geo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Check out our first Substack entry on where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1724497597019082828) 2023-11-14T18:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Excellent investment thesis from Investment Notes substack about AERCAP with a conservative vision + an excellent management. That's the kind of company that we like. $AER" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1726138053855690978) 2023-11-19T07:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "AERCAP $AER is one of those excellent capital management that we like. Great company great thesis. $AER Nueva tesis Gran empresa ejecutando plan de recompras y con el mejor equipo del sector https://t.co/V9jpS1bY0q $AER Nueva tesis Gran empresa ejecutando plan de recompras y con el mejor equipo del sector https://t.co/V9jpS1bY0q" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1726899504895426729) 2023-11-21T09:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AbrilQuim Hola Quim aun estamos analizando en profundidad pero nos est gustando Mo-BRUK SA $MBR una compaa polaca de tratamiento de residuos que al aprox. 50% de capacidad de sus plantas est generando mrgenes EBITDA 40-50% con caja neta. A 7x EBITDA NTM" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1729205198088999268) 2023-11-27T18:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Martin_V1816 @acapi10 @GaliciaInvestor No tiene desperdicio pero si queris ir a lo ms intemporal "Some Thoughts About Investing" en la pgina 16" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1735192539446038973) 2023-12-14T06:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@inversornovat0 Eso hasta que un da todo el mundo en el entorno ha invertido en algo o conoce a un primo que se ha forrado con una crypto. Ese es el mejor termometro de la fase de greed absoluto" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1737158210950189253) 2023-12-19T17:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "La cantidad que va a "invertir" el estado en Telefnica da para [--] das de pensiones. Esta inversin es tan solo para evitar la compra por parte de los saudes y controlar una empresa estratgica. Con este Estado que tenemos en Espaa prefiero que me dejen decidir a mi el vehculo en el que quiero componer mi pensin que dejarlo en manos de los gobiernos de turno. Mira lo que pas en Chile estuvieron a punto de hacer pblicas pensiones que ya eran privadas. De todos modos en Espaa ese debate ni existe" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1737445720276300042) 2023-12-20T12:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "El juego est trucado. Con la situacin de la vivienda y de las pensiones esas herencias (aunque sea de una vivienda) puede ser la nica forma de construir algo de patrimonio para muchos. Las cotizaciones a la SS irn aumentando segn se jubile el baby boom y los salarios no les seguirn el rastro ni mucho menos. Los de 20-40 son rehenes del sistema con la nica salida la emigracin para prosperar de verdad" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1737520339943346422) 2023-12-20T17:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@London888174 @JOSE_ESPECULATA @SeekingTheValue No se yo una vez en Oslo pagu por el bocadillo ms caro de mi vida. Haba hambre y vena de pasar frio. [--] en NOK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1737522941326500275) 2023-12-20T17:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Invtractiriano Lo pagaremos con desempleo. Sobre todo en las zonas ms necesitadas de desarrollo econmico" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745797717920453053) 2024-01-12T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "De acuerdo en parte pero no tan confiado sobre $ORCL por ejemplo. El problema no es solo que vayan a seguir sino cuanto crecimiento del reflejado en los mltiplos se dar. Y si Apple vende en [--] aos los mismos iPhones que hoy Seguira siendo una tecnolgica enorme y puntera pero a PE [--] ahora sera una inversin horrible" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745805364199649679) 2024-01-12T13:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Adding two key points on Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR thesis thanks to @BramdeHaas on Seeking Alpha: ➡The deal would create the fourth-largest luxury 💎 goods company by market cap at 5% (small impact in competition) ➡Of over +40 deals in the luxury sector all were completed. This special situation offers a 17% return at Friday's closing prices. Read the full thesis on the blog link in bio. Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1751565239814865082) 2024-01-28T11:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@tampablue87 Capri did a similar move previous to Q3-2023 results. And they announced "Given the pending acquisition of Capri Holdings Limited by Tapestry Inc. the Company does not intend to hold conference calls to review its financial results going forward."" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1753157343301284196) 2024-02-01T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@oscar100_x Congrats and good luck" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1755533843765793202) 2024-02-08T10:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@yagues92 @AbrilQuim No olvidemos que cuando el mercado sobredemanda sustitutos monetarios el emisor degrada la calidad de los mismos. La bomba de relojera est haciendo tik tak en algun lado. No tiene porque ser por ah pero nadie sabe " [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1755986639552152027) 2024-02-09T16:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@maikwonder @SlowDividend @InvirtiendoPaP Aun quedan malas noticias y sobre-reacciones del mercado a ellas pero hay que ver ms all. Si os interesa en mi substack tengo una tesis completa como turnaround" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1756984958625673517) 2024-02-12T10:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@bbslznd @varunvasudeva23 @linakhanFTC @real_bill_gross @FTC @TheJusticeDept Distrust those who begin their sentences with "everyone knows." because there are no consensus. Good luck trying to put a long term fair value to MK + Versace + JC better than Tapestry management" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1757352534132261292) 2024-02-13T10:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Buen capitulo sobre situaciones especiales: Comparto la visin de @KrevixD sobre Capri $CPRI y Tapestry $TPR. El gap se ha aumentado por los malos resultados de Capri en Q3 lo que hace pensar que el recorrido a la baja en caso de que no se apruebe el acuerdo podra ser superior" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1757712726422393330) 2024-02-14T10:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "La falta de oferta ah donde la gente quiere vivir es indudable. Los otros factores son importantes y hay que solventarlos pero secundarios a la falta de oferta. Por ejemplo mira este twit de @victorianoi sobre Madrid. Y luego est el factor segunda vivienda (vacacional heredada en el pueblo. )" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1757717990584250680) 2024-02-14T10:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Howard Marks @oaktree has an intuition regarding the capital cycle in commodities especially in oil and mining. $GOLD $STR $VALE $FCX" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1758155507930407152) 2024-02-15T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@abaguena @fageiesa Que tiempos aquellos en primaria haciendo informtica como extraescolar jugando a los Blue Brothers en MS2. O luego en casa al Sid Meier's Civilization 1991" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1758169033227079986) 2024-02-15T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "El caso de Prisa es interesante. Hay una lucha por el poder meditico no en vano poseen la primera radio y el primer peridico de este pas. Entre los franceses de Vivendi mas afines a la derecha los empresarios del PSOE que compran a travs de Global Alconaba los mejicanos Slim y Alcantara Rojas.creo que el nico que de verdad est interesado en recuperar la inversin es el [--] accionista el fondo activista Amber. El resto incluido el Santander solo les interesa el control del medio. Y el Gobierno no duda en usar el BOE para afectar a este triangulo de poder: En [----] sac la ley Anti Opa para que" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1758371261208481926) 2024-02-16T06:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ProfesorDiv Tiene sentido. Hay otras compaas que venden negocios o segmentos en mal momento con tal de mantener su historial de dividendos en este caso toda centrarse en la situacin de la deuda y los litigios" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1759826675045445893) 2024-02-20T06:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@El_Cid_Owneador @GustavoBolsa @azvalor Nvidia no ha duplicado ventas vendiendo a Microsoft o Cisco. Hay mucha inversin por todos lados que son cash flow futuro incierto" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1762921885908525298) 2024-02-28T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Brief update on Bayer thesis regarding the FY23 results and the Capital Markets Day. Link in the bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1765351119713124743) 2024-03-06T12:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "🗓On Wednesday I'll be releasing the full investment thesis on MoBruk $MBR a highly intriguing Polish small-cap specialized in waste management ♻ 💰Today as a preview I've published a brief macro analysis on Poland as part of the MoBruk thesis link on bio. 🎉I'd also like to mention that we've reached [--] followers on Substack and nearly [---] on Twitter a modest but gratifying audience considering the little and dense content I share. Thank you for your support" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1769685481539699132) 2024-03-18T11:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just released the full investment thesis on MoBruk $MBR a Polish small-cap specialized in waste management ♻. Pure Peter Lynch style with "Not in my backyard" moat. Link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1770382593055150477) 2024-03-20T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "En mis ltimas experiencias parece lo habitual subir el precio unos [------] del que ests dispuesto a vender de hecho los compradores empiezan por ah siempre. Hay que comparar porque en mi caso fui vendedor y no la puse con sobreprecio esperando bajar sino que la puse al precio al que quera venderla directamente. Esto propici que llegaran ofertas muy bajas pero el que se haba empapado del mercado de la zona saba por donde tirar" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1771226925282812312) 2024-03-22T17:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Son muy buenos fondos. La apuesta actual de alguno de ellos es un poco contrarian y les est lastrando en [----] y [----] por ejemplo AzValor pero en el largo se ver si tena sentido (yo creo que si). [--] aos siempre sern pocos. Aadira ES0146309002 de @horosfunds. Por cierto en la web de @investorsrelat3 se puede profundizar en las posiciones de cada uno de forma muy visual" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1772869036461740241) 2024-03-27T06:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Semapa $SEM worth a look 👁🗨 It trades at around a 40% discount to the value of its holdings in the company Navigator $NVG (of which it owns 70%) without taking into account the rest of the holding's businesses. Ahora mismo a precio de mercado la participacin de Semapa $SEM en Navigator $NVGR vale 2.000M. Semapa vale 1.160M en Bolsa. https://t.co/ogGxksquSG Ahora mismo a precio de mercado la participacin de Semapa $SEM en Navigator $NVGR vale 2.000M. Semapa vale 1.160M en Bolsa. https://t.co/ogGxksquSG" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1772949479257198602) 2024-03-27T11:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Mobruk $MBR #Poland rises 3.5% supported by favorable outcome in the claim for a fee of [--] million PLN on the Walbrzych landfill (6% of sales). You have the link to the full thesis in my bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1775915489270648994) 2024-04-04T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "La cotizacin de Nvidia est descontando un crecimiento de la IA salvaje para los prximos aos. Sus clientes que compran tarjetas y montan data centers estn transformando sus negocios incorporando todo lo que suene a IA. Pero cuando baje la marea veremos como muchas de esas inversiones en IA no generan flujos de caja lo bastante cercanos en el tiempo. No es un escenario nuevo es las .com [---]. Y por cierto llevar por bandera el Value Investing no te hace acertar siempre pero ah tienes a Warren Buffet Peter Lynch Munger Howard Marks Greenwald" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1776158687788237112) 2024-04-05T08:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Novedades en los juicios de RoundUp de Bayer $BAYN: Como he avanzado en otras ocasiones los veredictos ms sonados acaban apelndose con reducciones significativas: ➡En este caso en un veredicto de [----] en Missouri se reduce en ms de un 50% la cuanta de la sentencia. La apelacin del caso de McKivision en Philadelphia la peor condena hasta la fecha tambin llegar" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1776544688553468319) 2024-04-06T09:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Updates on Bayer 🌱RoundUp trials $BAYN: As I've mentioned before worst verdicts often end up being appealed with significant reductions. ➡In this instance a [----] verdict in Missouri saw the sentence amount reduced more than 50%. The appeal for the McKivision case in Philadelphia the worst to date will arrive" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1776545228163301754) 2024-04-06T09:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Su versin podra ser correcta pero la mitad de los argumentos que utiliza son muecos de paja y la otra mitad simplificaciones y descontextualizaciones. Los gestores esos a los que acusa tienen casi el 100% del patrimonio invertido en sus vehculos en el caso de lvaro de Guzmn complementa su fondo con otros value espaoles como Horos. No hay necesidad de verter tanto hate contra un estilo de inversin aplica el tuyo difunde el tuyo (si quieres) y olvdate del vecino. Me resulta terriblemente curioso como es capaz de presentarnos el sesgo por aversin a la disonancia cognitiva sin aplicrselo a si" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1776930084038812048) 2024-04-07T11:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BenderOfuscado La falacia de que como es un presupuesto otorgado no se quita de nada es simplemente absurda. [--] El presupuesto puede ser [-----] millones o [--] permitiendo aumentar [-----] millones otro presupuesto. [--] Si hay dficit fiscales recurrentes los presupuestos son papel mojado" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1778819121859236308) 2024-04-12T16:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Capri Holdings $CPRI & Tapestry $TPR deal is moving forward. Today we got Japan & EU approval. https://tapestry.gcs-web.com/static-files/457fbb01-3aa6-44a7-833f-ab0167e0ffe7 https://tapestry.gcs-web.com/static-files/457fbb01-3aa6-44a7-833f-ab0167e0ffe7" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1779905217649103128) 2024-04-15T16:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Capri $CPRI & Tapestry $TPR deal Last news" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1780551392102428786) 2024-04-17T10:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Very good reflections on the situation of Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1785303971189473591) 2024-04-30T13:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@paulcerro Terribly hilarious: "The FTCs worldview cannot explain why consumers spend hundreds or more to buy a frog-shaped crossbody bag a bright pink puffed satchel or a top-handle bag that looks like a pizza box (all handbags that Kate Spade offers)"" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1788136953780584724) 2024-05-08T09:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their merger. The arbitrage thesis remains alive but the final verdict will be decided in the courts. Link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1790706522680402114) 2024-05-15T11:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Gestiprudent Muy interesante la cartera. Compartimos unas cuantas. Sobre Capri he escrito bastante recientemente a ver si la poltica no chafa una buena oportunidad" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1792134481723195685) 2024-05-19T10:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "For English speaking followers Javier Ruiz is a Spanish fund manager who writes excellent quarterly letters for his participants. Highly recommended. In his latest one he adds a lot of value to the "active management vs. passive management" debate. Is there still a place for active managers in a market increasingly dominated by index funds Find out in our latest quarterly letter to our coinvestors. We also also discuss the most significant changes that we have made to our portfolios @horosfunds https://t.co/U31zYiamaN Is there still a place for active managers in a market increasingly" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1795086993967259785) 2024-05-27T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Muy buen artculo de @investorsrelat3. El efecto del ciclo en el sector de servicios IT puede afectar de forma diferente a Nagarro $NA9 $EPAM Endava $DAVA y Globant $GLOB dado su posicionamiento en diferentes sectores" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1795395292671689042) 2024-05-28T10:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Con el market cap actual de Navigator $NVG descontando la deuda holding y valorando el resto de negocios a [--] Semapa valdra [--] por accin cotizando a [--] actualmente. Una de las divergencias precio/valor ms claras que hay ahora mismo en el mercado bien aprovechadas por los value espaoles. Entre @BESTINVER @CobasFunds Magallanes y @horosfunds tienen aprox. 30% del float" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1795405743635464207) 2024-05-28T10:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@creandocartera Si hubiera un fondo S&P493 en vez de equiponderado lo elegiras por encima de este" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1795762694374453374) 2024-05-29T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Las bajadas de los mrgenes tienen sentido han aumentado empleados (+30) con menos ingresos. Lo de los costes laborales de Polonia van a seguir incrementndose pero su Coste Hora sigue debajo media. El invierno ha sido duro por all parece y las plantas de incineracin han estado paradas ms tiempo de lo normal y todo lo que se ha sacado va RDF deja menos dinero" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1795770567347372117) 2024-05-29T10:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@volatilitysfray A un director de Banca le tuve que explicar una vez que me estaba ofreciendo un fondo de fondos. El nivel es mnimo por otro lado reflejo de la sociedad" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796112576704655407) 2024-05-30T09:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "IAG $IAG $ICAGY anda coqueteando con los [--] de nuevo. Una de las inversiones importantes de la cartera que acumula un 40% de rentabilidad con una TIR del 10%. El diferencial hasta el FV de 230-250 convertira una buena inversin en una excelente pero como deca @JRuizRuiz en su carta del Q4T23 "el comportamiento de una accin depende de los flujos de dinero de la comunidad inversora." Y como esa comunidad anticipe la ciclicidad del sector de las aerolneas te puedes quedar enganchado con tu turnaround que aunque sigas confiando en tu FV puede acabar siendo una mala inversin si lleva ms tiempo de la" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796203508905005172) 2024-05-30T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Meanwhile Lisa Khan and FTC are trying to prepare a definition of "accessible luxury". $CPR $TPRI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796561326904353087) 2024-05-31T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Los mltiplos de Ryanair tambin son otros. Pero en cuanto a lnea area europea con rutas internacionales IAG es una buena jugada. Ha mejorado su eficiencia operativa respecto a pre-pandemia ha reducido enormemente la deuda y los mltiplos siguen muy por debajo por la desafeccin al sector. De todos modos para mi es una jugada turnaround a lo Lynch que volver a ser cclica. Si se cumplen los catalizadores puede ser venta pronto" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796861169073807511) 2024-06-01T11:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "El veredicto ms sonado en contra de Bayer $BAYN $BAYRY el de Mc Kivision en Philadelphia que llev a la cotizacin a caer un 12% en una semana con una indemnizacin al demandante de [-----] millones de $ se reduce a [---] millones tras la apelacin" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1798263069216489859) 2024-06-05T07:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@thephoenixinv Seguro que aportara valor siempre y cuando te apetezca. Aunque el enfoque centrado en proporcionar buenos anlisis y que cada uno haga su due diligence me parece muy acertado" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1798280665181642997) 2024-06-05T09:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@alan_btc @WinnerMon1 Agree. Check the full thesis first. https://open.substack.com/pub/duckpondvr/p/bayer-agr=30nf5w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/duckpondvr/p/bayer-agr=30nf5w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1798447040097386575) 2024-06-05T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@LocodlDividendo Bueno por otro lado traicion a sus votantes a los que les prometi liderar la oposicin si no ganaba. No creo que fuera una cuestin de sueldo sino de ego al verse demasiado para tan poco rol" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1800216419042574359) 2024-06-10T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KrevixD @IcariaCap Me han dado ganas de estudiar a fondo a la directiva de Stellantis. Muy interesante" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1800216808764674444) 2024-06-10T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael Kors. [--] Separate sale of all brands: $47 Still betting on 1" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1805605827945832649) 2024-06-25T14:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Aena eleva la previsin de crecimiento del trfico areo al 83% en [----]. Buenos datos para $IAG" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1805834925863531003) 2024-06-26T05:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$IAG en mnimos de posiciones cortas tras el cierre de la posicin de Glg Partners Lp. Hoy se est celebrando la AGM con la expectativa de alguna seal de la vuelta al dividendo" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1805912375104524726) 2024-06-26T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Proceso de concentracin en las aerolneas europeas ✅Lufthansa + ITA Airways $LHA IAG + Air Europa $IAG Air France-KLM + SAS $AF ➕Flotas por debajo de [----] (efecto pandemia) ➕Retrasos en la entregas de Airbus ➕Problemas serios de Boeing Qu dira Chancellor del ciclo de capital en el sector" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1808912079807484178) 2024-07-04T17:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dinerobolsa La causa es la adiccin pero mira es a uno de esos placeres que no estoy dispuesto a renunciar ni loco. Caf recin hecho butaca y lectura maanera es la mejor forma de empezar el da" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1810260416804638980) 2024-07-08T10:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Today I am publishing a brief article where I reflect through the practical case of ✈ $IAG on how to manage a position whose fundamental thesis is being fulfilled but whose fair value has not surfaced 100%. Link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1810615409743118455) 2024-07-09T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Justo ayer en mi blog hablaba de la importancia de la opinin de las casas de analistas para verse cumplidas las tesis hoy tenemos el ejemplo de Morgan Stanley aumentando PO de IAG y sube un 38%. Pero 👀a los insiders que hay reportando compras en los ltimos meses" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1810958454556594541) 2024-07-10T08:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Undercovered Dozen: Spirit Airlines HubSpot Cigna First Quantum Minerals + https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705160-undercovered-dozen-spirit-airlines-hubspot-cigna-first-quantum-minerals-plus https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705160-undercovered-dozen-spirit-airlines-hubspot-cigna-first-quantum-minerals-plus" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1815672584429535269) 2024-07-23T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Buensimo ejemplo. Lo que es de todos no es de nadie. No funciona ni para hacer un trabajo en la Universidad ni para gestionar una comunidad de vecinos y mucho menos una compaa grande o un pas" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1816033073990938787) 2024-07-24T08:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@llymans @Invtractiriano Fe si. Ciega no. Yo me replante mi opinin con Tesla tras escucharle en el podcast de @InverRacional y despus de leer la biografa de Musk. De todos modos complementar con la tesis de @WorldStockss en las comidas puede aumentar la fe" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1816033921299030374) 2024-07-24T08:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Un quarter no determina una tesis. Cada uno debe de hacer su propia investigacin no se basa en mirar videos. Al menos yo no trabajo as. Si escribes una tesis bajista modelizando escenarios planteando amenazas al coche elctrico o debilidades en alguna de las otras patas del crecimiento me la leer" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1816046385558405157) 2024-07-24T09:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Por qu emits esos juicios de valor sobre terceros de los que desconocis absolutamente todo sabes cuan formada tena mi opinin antes he dicho que pre-podcast fuera bajista anti Tesla o anti Musk eres capaz de saber con todo lujo de detalles lo que he profundizado en ello desde entonces o cuanto ha variado mi opinin exactamente. Por cierto la biografa a la que hago referencia sali a finales de 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1816056406476239029) 2024-07-24T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Resultados de Air France $AF menos malos que los de Ryanair con mismas casuisticas. Revenue +43% (-1% RA) Operating Profit -30% (-49% RA)" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1816434929850294285) 2024-07-25T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "29:30 $LLYVK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1818708970493591998) 2024-07-31T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Ya tenemos resultados de $IAG a priori buenos: 👌Los mejores dentro de su competencia europea como se puede ver en el dashboard. ✅Sigue reduciendo el nivel de deuda 💰Se retoma un pequeo dividendo de [--] cents per share por los primeros [--] meses con potencial aumento" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1819065459792400640) 2024-08-01T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sobre $IAG y Air Europa parece que el regulador lo ha puesto imposible. Se abre la posibilidad de adquisicin de la portuguesa TAP" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1819341045542384041) 2024-08-02T11:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Muy interesante la tesis que presenta @adriarivero_ sobre Watches Of Switzerland $WOSG. https://youtu.be/9Fn4PkNWjSUt=1345 https://youtu.be/9Fn4PkNWjSUt=1345" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1819975247526773137) 2024-08-04T05:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JessMouri Menuda contraprogramacin le ha hecho el destino a IAG. Esa parte de la cartera debera estar dejando hueco a las dems pero bueno estamos cmodos ah" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1820473872157692218) 2024-08-05T14:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The low (or negative) returns on low-risk assets in Japan drove retail investors to the stock market driven by government programs such as NISA. When the music stopped they left frightened. 🚨WHO BOUGHT THE DIP MONDAY NOT RETAIL. According to JP Morgan: - Retail: -$1 billion in net selling which is [----] standard deviations BELOW the 12-month average. - Institutional: +$14 billion in net buying which is +2.9 standard deviations ABOVE the 12-month average. https://t.co/xHS78vOBMz 🚨WHO BOUGHT THE DIP MONDAY NOT RETAIL. According to JP Morgan: - Retail: -$1 billion in net selling which is -2.5" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1821099775992737848) 2024-08-07T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Liberty Global Ltd $LBTYA $LBTYK Horos Internacional - 5% cartera" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1821144651631394931) 2024-08-07T11:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Grok image AI is promising" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1823723923093041439) 2024-08-14T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bayer AG update just published covering: 🌱Crop Science performance & competitors 💊Pharma Portfolio review ⚖Update of RoundUp Litigations Link in bio $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1824033341852565827) 2024-08-15T10:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Tapestry $TPR still betting in $CPRI A pesar los malos resultado de $CPRI El equipo de Tapestry $TPR sigue pensando que "The combination it's still a strong strategic fit .. The Company is confident and looks forward to presenting its strong legal arguments in court". El pelota sigue en movimiento. A pesar los malos resultado de $CPRI El equipo de Tapestry $TPR sigue pensando que "The combination it's still a strong strategic fit .. The Company is confident and looks forward to presenting its strong legal arguments in court". El pelota sigue en movimiento" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1824101701793570948) 2024-08-15T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "There is no case but if there were here is a solid point $CPRI $TPR. Some people on here might not agree but really feel $CPRI s bad results increase the probability of the merger going through. Lina Khans whole case is based on the fact that Capri and Tapestry are near perfect competitors and follow each others policies very closely like Some people on here might not agree but really feel $CPRI s bad results increase the probability of the merger going through. Lina Khans whole case is based on the fact that Capri and Tapestry are near perfect competitors and follow each others policies very" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1824343704225693894) 2024-08-16T07:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "100 subscribers on the blog. Thanks for reading" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1824841340896825637) 2024-08-17T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bayer Roundup tracking dashboard Updated 19/08/24 $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1825472620243857734) 2024-08-19T09:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Capri +6% IMO the market did not fully believe Tapestry's commitment and the presentation of allegations today makes this risk a little less real. $CPRI $TPR https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/68465585/161/federal-trade-commission-v-tapestry-inc/ https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/68465585/161/federal-trade-commission-v-tapestry-inc/" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1826270594171810008) 2024-08-21T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The market does not see it realistic that $TPR will not sit down to renegotiate even with a victory against the FTC. And it can be a risk. I have the impression that market will remain skeptical about $57 until the end. For now it seems that expectations about the trial have begun to adjust" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1827939722804572644) 2024-08-26T05:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The FTC attacked a pre-merger consumer survey for lack of questions about price sensitivity. While that's basically nothing the lawsuit's testimony has been pretty insecure. $CPR $TPR $CPR $TPR Excerpt of Deposition Transcript of Loren Smith https://t.co/cDtdmPiPBl $CPR $TPR Excerpt of Deposition Transcript of Loren Smith https://t.co/cDtdmPiPBl" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1828671710536626402) 2024-08-28T05:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Degiro has $FTK.n $FTK new CEO from Morgan Stanley Europe. https://flatexdegiro.com/media/pages/investor-relations/news/720e224fa3-1724826395/240828_flatexdegiro-appoints-oliver-behrens-long-standing-ceo-of-morgan-stanley-europe-se-as-chief-executive-officer.pdf https://flatexdegiro.com/media/pages/investor-relations/news/720e224fa3-1724826395/240828_flatexdegiro-appoints-oliver-behrens-long-standing-ceo-of-morgan-stanley-europe-se-as-chief-executive-officer.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1828684451158618180) 2024-08-28T06:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Capri/Tapestry vs FTC begins today Notice to potential buyers: any market segmentation may be used against you in the future. $CPRI $TPR FTC lawyer: There is an accessible luxurt market according to Tapestry own internal documents. The [----] DOJ Merger Guidelines uses HHI or the Philadelphia National Bank. This proposal violates both and would have violated the [----] Merger Guidelines. FTC lawyer: There is an accessible luxurt market according to Tapestry own internal documents. The [----] DOJ Merger Guidelines uses HHI or the Philadelphia National Bank. This proposal violates both and would have" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1833180603551719872) 2024-09-09T16:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sunrise the spinoff of Liberty Global projected for Q4 expects to generate CHF [---] million in cash flow in [----] (CHF [---] million in 2023). Its main competitor Swisscom (market leader in Switzerland) trades at an average of [--] times FCF with less debt. At [--] times FCF Sunrise justifies 60% of Liberty's current market cap. Despite the debt differential between the two Sunrise is well financed and will benefit from the spinoff with a capital injection 👇 $LBTYA $LBTYK $LBTYB" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1833196071503216832) 2024-09-09T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@paulcerro In the "Tiffany Jewelry" market Tiffany has pricing power" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1836035805522825302) 2024-09-17T13:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4 de las [--] marcas de $IAG estn en el Top [--] de rentabilidad" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1842520930599252100) 2024-10-05T11:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Shit happens. Let's take time to reflect learn and evaluate scenarios. $CPRI $TPR Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael Kors. [--] Separate sale of all Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1849681099217113172) 2024-10-25T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Gestiprudent En EUR FRA: MKO" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1849769110093156837) 2024-10-25T11:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff valuation Just Released Part II: Liberty valuation + spinoff strategy Available today at 15:00 CEST 🚨Spinoff key dates: 04/11: Record date 13/04: First market day Special thanks to @CocoaBeansPod for his previous thesis where we learned and inspired. $LBTYA $LBTYB $LBTYK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1851881798512578931) 2024-10-31T07:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Continuing with $IAG competitors: Air France $AF is down 10% today due to weak margins combined with income data not as good as expected. Tomorrow $IAG. IAG will present results on the 8th meanwhile: Traffic data AENA just published Q3 results with +98% passengers in 9M vs PY with good Q3. Expected also increases in winter season [----]. Airlines increase +56% seats offered vs WS [--] Competitors Lufthansa posted a good Q3 in IAG will present results on the 8th meanwhile: Traffic data AENA just published Q3 results with +98% passengers in 9M vs PY with good Q3. Expected also increases in winter" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1854457661170889069) 2024-11-07T09:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Still a preliminary quotation but with these prices for Sunrise and the Liberty Global small discount after the record date the IRR may be exceptional. $LBTYK $LBTYA $LBTYB $SNREV Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff https://t.co/GVF85TbH9c Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1855896358575575116) 2024-11-11T08:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "💊9M basis reported sales adjusted for exchange rate rising by 3.6%. EBITDA vs [--] drained by currency effect. On portfolio: Despite Xarelto declining Nubeqa and Kerendia are offsetting in Revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856387555974922449) 2024-11-12T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The market is sovereign and when pessimism sets in and bad news comes one after another the falls cannot be questioned. For the long term this does not change my opinion" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856387565651214808) 2024-11-12T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@onewordtrader Dividend right now is peanuts and with current fundamentals is gonna keep weak. Could agreed in the rest" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856632156795052349) 2024-11-13T09:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TimmyMcCarthy It is a potential but I prefer not to depend on politics. On Pharma seems a 2y (more) in nowhere. But here the stability is a positive point (lets see how margins are pressured here)" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856660685012242746) 2024-11-13T11:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10% Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff https://t.co/GVF85TbH9c Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company." [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856712001914831035) 2024-11-13T14:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sunrise expected implicit dividend yield close to 7% at these prices. (May25) Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10% Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10%" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856715715111231727) 2024-11-13T15:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Hola compaero menudo asset allocation se ha marcado tu cliente. Brevemente te dir que el mayor riesgo est en los litigios aunque creo que lo peor ya ha pasado. Ganan muchos de los litigios y en muchos otros en apelacin reducen las multas. Este ltimo arren a la baja se debe al sector agro que viene de unos aos buenos. Los competidores estn igual o peor en este sentido. Bayer en Crop Science es una empresa top mundial Rk1/2 en semillas herbicidas fungicidas. Otro de los lastres es la parte Pharma. Les ha vencido la patente de un blockbuster y la maquinaria de R&D no ha producido suficiente para" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856775519968059536) 2024-11-13T19:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Trust the "plan" $CPRI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1857074940475838943) 2024-11-14T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Biesse approves a [--] million buyback program. The price is starting to look attractive for the Selci family. $BSS.MIL $BSS New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1858546127118680093) 2024-11-18T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bayer won another verdict yesterday in Philadelphia. Current scorecard 16/26. Meanwhile the class action litigation industry is facing refinancing problems caused by longer legal proceedings. This could tighten the conditions for accepting new cases. $BAYN $BAYRY https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/mass-tort-lawyers-trapped-in-cycle-of-debt-as-cases-drag-on https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/mass-tort-lawyers-trapped-in-cycle-of-debt-as-cases-drag-on" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1858553170454343781) 2024-11-18T16:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@h805d Sorry but this is out of my scope. A reflection that is 100% speculation: $MMM litigations are municipalities (state) vs the company. Bayer is thousand of individual complains. Could make a difference in finaning matters" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1860983646355624261) 2024-11-25T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$GRF $GRFS BROOKFIELD IS WALKING AWAY OVER VALUATION DISAGREEMENT - BBG https://t.co/EMY2F211z5 BROOKFIELD IS WALKING AWAY OVER VALUATION DISAGREEMENT - BBG https://t.co/EMY2F211z5" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1861689663691362657) 2024-11-27T08:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Grifols potential (undisputed) is for whoever manages to unlock this. Brookfield came with the refinancing under its arm. $GRF $GRFS $GRF $GRFS $GRF $GRFS" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1861709077291671828) 2024-11-27T09:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@European_DGI Fintwit is a bubble of knowledge respect and professionality 99% of the times. Good decision IMO i don't need more than X right now" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1862554011544453616) 2024-11-29T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@YesManMO I'm impressed with this graph that i usually update every month. Still growing at +0.5% over previus month consistenly. Increased market activity whenever it comes will be an extraordinary revenue driver" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1864247218170991006) 2024-12-04T09:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Summarizing first impressions on NotebookLM: long Google. $GOOGL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1869465386808439193) 2024-12-18T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flatex Degiro December Monthly KPI closing a positive 2024: 👥Strong customer growth (+1.4% over November) reaching +14% YoY. Excelent last Q. 📊Best DARTs figure in last [--] years: [----] vs [----] [----] 🎯DARTs + New customers aims for +30-40% in Commision Income QvQ. $FTK $FTK.n" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1876906009697931659) 2025-01-08T08:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I'm currently analyzing Dowlais and making my own analysis but this guys have already lifted the correct stones here. Definetly worth reading 👀 $DWL.LN Can a bargain be a bargain forever 👉Dowlais $DWL.LN wants to sell its most profitable business (27% of its earnings) and could end up being worth only what its shares are currently worth. ✅What will happen to the stock Find out here: Link👇 https://t.co/uZ6p8p5UtZ Can a bargain be a bargain forever 👉Dowlais $DWL.LN wants to sell its most profitable business (27% of its earnings) and could end up being worth only what its shares are" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1883859638539714822) 2025-01-27T12:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Dowlais $DWL.LN will be merged into American Axle. The offer includes cash + $AXL new shares + special dividend. The candy was too attractive. AAM today announced a combination with Dowlais for $1.44 billion in cash and stock. The combination creates a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier with a comprehensive product portfolio and diversified customer base. Read more: https://t.co/DS3DHoBSXX https://t.co/5v111pIN2Q AAM today announced a combination with Dowlais for $1.44 billion in cash and stock. The combination creates a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1884556499210453464) 2025-01-29T10:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Nueva entrada de Azvalor Internacional en Bayer $BAYN @azvalor https://t.co/2j69kIEQPE https://t.co/JQmY9UW2YX @azvalor https://t.co/2j69kIEQPE https://t.co/JQmY9UW2YX" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1886343360744477011) 2025-02-03T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MatusStraznicky There are rumours around it. Some of the plaintiffs could be trying to settle all or a big part of the lawsuits. $BAYN" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1886347156556075202) 2025-02-03T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "El futuro de empresas como Compagnie des Alpes $CDA https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-02-04/pinilla-estacion-esqui-nieve-montana-musica_4053440/ https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-02-04/pinilla-estacion-esqui-nieve-montana-musica_4053440/" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1886790607768564011) 2025-02-04T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@YesManMO Seems that crypto launch helped. And is only in Germany. Still impressed: not only mantain but increase the %over previous month" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1887057048132517953) 2025-02-05T08:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "FMC and Corteva have reported FY results slighly below previous forecasts and provided flat guidance for [----]. Sector expectations remain unchanged. Bayer will present results on March 5th. (1/3) $CTVA $FMC $BAYN" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1888851371585102226) 2025-02-10T07:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Grifols ADR +10% after results publication. ➡Topline slightly better than peers: Takeda and CSL Berhing. Also impacted by better donation volumes and CPL. ➡Bottomline first impressions: improved margins and FCF. Improvements in WC will have to be thoroughly reviewed. The financial information has improved noticeably also. $GRF $GRFS" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1894811274778677280) 2025-02-26T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flatex Degiro February Monthly KPI: 👥Continuing customer growth trend: +1.2% over January. 📊Same transactions vs Jan with [--] trading day less 💰AUC per customer reaching 25K $FTK.n $FTK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1897197211294765068) 2025-03-05T08:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@joinyellowbrick IMO $FFH.TO . But there are replacements on the bench on BRK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1900225728475521336) 2025-03-13T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Seems that Bayer was hit last week with a new verdict against them with [---] billion in compensation. It's a tough setback but remember that the amount could be lowered up to 90% in appellation. The Supreme Court recognizes as excessive punitive damages in excess of 8-9 times compensatory damages and in this case it exceeds [--] times. Ex: McKivision case [----] billion verdict was reduced to [----]. $BAYN" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1903823999320137741) 2025-03-23T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Seems that Bayer was hit last week with a new verdict against them with [---] billion in compensation. It's a tough setback but remember that the amount could be lowered up to 90% in appellation. The Supreme Court recognizes as excessive punitive damages in excess of 8-9 times compensatory damages and in this case it exceeds [--] times. Ex: McKivision case [----] billion verdict was reduced to [----]. $BAYN" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1903825236258136425) 2025-03-23T15:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 03/25 - Dowlais 🔄 01/25 - Drger 🔄 10/24 - Liberty 🔄 10/24 - Biesse 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* 03/24 - Mo-Bruk 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri ❌ Other insights 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis & updates published on Seeking Alpha. $DWL $DWL.LN $DRW8 $DRW3 $LBTYK $LBTYA $BSS.MI $BSS $MBR $BAYN $BAYRY $FTK.de $FTK $IAG $ICAG" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1904121985698845164) 2025-03-24T10:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is this real" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1910060646609162397) 2025-04-09T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flatex Degiro April Monthly KPI: 👥Continuing customer growth trend: +1.3% over March with 47k new customers. 📈DARTs over [---] 💰Cash at max with [----] BN Eur" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1919681540939727031) 2025-05-06T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@faan85 Tomorrow you can draw your own conclusions" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1935258077546365041) 2025-06-18T08:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Flatex Degiro $FTK $FTK.n June Monthly KPI: 👥Solid Customer growth: +0.70% over May on typical lower months. 📊Transactions activity is still at average. 🎯Good Q2 aiming for +18/20% on Commision Income over H1 [----] partially offsetted by lower interest on cash. (est. Total Revenue +9/11%)" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1940755739133317384) 2025-07-03T12:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bayer is falling 8% despite last week upgraded guidance on Pharma & anticipation of $1.7bn provision. The unexpected was a weaker CF generation in Q2. Pharma due to increasing selling & R&D for future launches (Beyonttra scalation H2 & Lynkuet approval in H2) & FX effect. Crop due to receivables phasing from Q2 to Q3 (seen on seed volumes). Nubeqa & Kerendia growth is still offsetting Xarelto revenue loss. ⚖Strategy with glyphosate: Bayer is looking for protection for future litigations. Right now despite correct EPA labels Bayer could face demands. This herbicide is key for US ag🚜 40% of" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1953115684675748238) 2025-08-06T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@iparatx Buy $SHELL. Sell $BUY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1954885031580643745) 2025-08-11T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Separate CEO for Porsche incoming $P911 WATCH: Porsche shares rose sharply following the news that the luxury sports car maker has begun the search for a successor to CEO Oliver Blume whose twin posts have been a contentious issue among shareholders https://t.co/sB9RV2ipEq https://t.co/47Q2KcnuIL WATCH: Porsche shares rose sharply following the news that the luxury sports car maker has begun the search for a successor to CEO Oliver Blume whose twin posts have been a contentious issue among shareholders https://t.co/sB9RV2ipEq https://t.co/47Q2KcnuIL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1960794216629506534) 2025-08-27T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport charges and operational chaos. Aena responds by speaking of accusations of plutocracy and massive price hikes. Three key points on this: 1All increases in airport fees fines for charging for luggage and other European regulations ultimately raise the cost for the passenger. 2If a key competitor withdraws the remaining ones will be able to raise their prices ( demand). 3In FY2025 Ryanair earned [----] cents per available seat-kilometre (ASK). And spent: ➡ [----] on operating costs (incl. [----] in airp. fees) ➡1.95 on fuel" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1964732202282807438) 2025-09-07T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Gold Miners $GDX rally into perspective. Updated 9/9. $B $AEM $NEM $FCX $WPM $FNV $AU $GFI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1965786554871533573) 2025-09-10T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1953806055982424137) 2025-08-08T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "American Axle +10% due to slightly improved guidance. I find more interesting Dowlais H1 results showing that AXL is acquiring an already highly optimized structure after a strong restructuring process. Easy integration here. Combination thesis published on my blog on March. $DWL $AXL Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL https://t.co/UY2wbBszVw Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1953822287179698441) 2025-08-08T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 09/25-WizzAir(Airlines) 🔄 06/25 - Forvia(Autoparts) 🔄 03/25 - Dowlais (Autoparts) 🔄 01/25 - Drger (Health Equipment) 🔄 10/24 - Liberty (Telcom) 🔄 10/24 - Biesse (Machinery) 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* (Pharma-Plasma) 03/24 - Mo-Bruk (Waste serv) 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma) 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri❌ Other articles 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed ✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1978513057048318085) 2025-10-15T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "American Axle presented Q3 [--] certifying the 2025FY guidance. All clear for Dowlais combination in Q1 [--]. Narrow arbitrage return 5% (fx risk) but there's value in the combination. $AXL $DWL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1986810822379581465) 2025-11-07T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The week in the 🦆Pond: ⚙ Monday Dowlais - Trading update Q3 After American Axle positive results Dowlais put a better thermometer on China leg of the future combination (Clear for Q1 26). 🌱💊 Thursday Bayer - Q3 Results $CTVA posted good results in the lower quarter for agriculture. Eyes on Pharma trend. ✈ Wednesday WizzAir - Q3 Results Topline +9% passengers 93.5% load factor. Eyes on RPK and Cost per ASK. Positive fuel trend. $DWL $AXL $BAYN $BAYRY $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY $WIZZ.LE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987768266559758799 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987768266559758799" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1987768266559758799) 2025-11-10T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "American Axle + Dowlais merger will become reality in February after today's China approval. 🗓 February 3: last trading day for Dowlais 📥 [------] shares of AXL + [-----] GBX per DWL share 📈 Upside since thesis: 40% AXL upside remaining 🎯 Price target for AXL: 11-12 USD $AXL $DWL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012117304398536842 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012117304398536842" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/2012117304398536842) 2026-01-16T10:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "American Axle will be Dauch Corporation after Dowlais merge. Last day for mix & match selection for Dowlais shareholders 28/01/2026 12:00. $DCH $AXL $DWL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/2015798807632454060) 2026-01-26T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "International Consolidated Airlines Capital Markets Day $IAG $IAG.GB $ICAGY Today is the $IAG Capital Markets Day highlighting: 🟢Strong position on airlines industry with controlled debt. 🟢Dividend expected at mid term priorizing balance sheet There's no limitations to see the stock on [--] https://t.co/ym8aHdNhZj Today is the $IAG Capital Markets Day highlighting: 🟢Strong position on airlines industry with controlled debt. 🟢Dividend expected at mid term priorizing balance sheet There's no limitations to see the stock on [--] https://t.co/ym8aHdNhZj" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1726896935007854990) 2023-11-21T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745405879568994503) 2024-01-11T11:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@real_bill_gross Capri $CPRI merge arb. make us feel confortable. https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745405879568994503s=20 Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745405879568994503s=20 Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745406392905630063) 2024-01-11T11:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tapestry $TPR Q2 report does not bring much news about the acquisition of Capri $CPR only highlighting: ➡Company expects to close in calendar [----] ➡Tapestry have started to pay financing cost of the acquisition" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1755565394314580458) 2024-02-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Beyond Meat +43% $BYND Teleperformance -15% $TLP EMH" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1762852255378608527) 2024-02-28T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "IAG (British Iberia) $IAG $IAG.GB $ICAGY [----] results and [----] expectations comments: 🟢Op. Margin 12% vs 10% [----]. 🟢Net Debt/EBITDA [---] reduced in [-----] m in [----] 🟢"Demand continues to be robust with particular strength in leisure travel. We are currently 92% booked for Q1 [----] and 62% booked for H1 2024* ahead of our position last year" In line with what we observe from air traffic data" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1763108221470887963) 2024-02-29T07:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Next week IAG $IAG $ICAGY will release results and they promise to be positive. Demand for commercial flights remains strong ✈📈. ➡In Q1 +12.3% of commercial flights compared to [----]. ➡April +13%" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1786082359239971198) 2024-05-02T17:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lufthansa $LHA and Air France $AF Q1 highlights: ✈Passengers Lufthansa +12% Air France +6% 📈Revenue Lufthansa +5% Air France +5% 👨✈Staff costs Lufthansa +17% Air France +12% On friday we'll have $IAG Q1 results" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1787764112954396781) 2024-05-07T08:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Howard Marks is betting on Argentina . He has 3% of his portfolio invested in these companies $VIST - Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V. $TEO - Telecom Argentina S.A. $PAM - Pampa Energa S.A. $YPF - YPF S.A. $BMA - Banco Macro S.A" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1791346053716857172) 2024-05-17T05:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Semapa $SEM presents its results tomorrow where we will be paying close attention especially to the comments regarding possible acquisition moves by the holding company. Diworsification is the most "worrying" part of the thesis in a holding company that owns 70% of Navigator $NVG the No. [--] UWF fine paper manufacturer in Europe and which is also one of the low-cost producers thanks to the integration of its production process" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1793522558890828024) 2024-05-23T06:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "✈IAG $IAG $ICAGY is around [--] again. Its one of the significant investments in the portfolio currently with a 40% return with an IRR of 10%. The gap with the FV of 2.30-2.50 would turn a good investment into an excellent one but as @JRuizRuiz mentioned in his Q4T23 letter "the behavior of a stock depends on the cash flows from the investor community." And if that community anticipates the cyclicality of airlines you might find yourself stuck with your turnaround. Even if you still believe in your FV it can turn into a bad investment if it takes longer than expected. 🎯The timing of the sale is" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796205413223809340) 2024-05-30T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Prem Watsa $FFH increased its bet on the legal victory of Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR in Q1. Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their merger. The arbitrage thesis remains alive but the final verdict https://t.co/nN0R5nSJot Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1796561314162393574) 2024-05-31T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Consolidation Process in European Airlines ✅ Lufthansa + ITA Airways $LHA IAG + Air Europa $IAG Air France-KLM + SAS $AF ➕ Fleets below [----] levels ➕ Delays in Airbus deliveries ➕ Serious problems with Boeing What would Chancellor say about the capital cycle in the sector https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808913077410079061 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808913077410079061" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1808913077410079061) 2024-07-04T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Vulcan Materials $VMC steadly growing prices on aggregate has a positive impact in FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. FRP Holdings $FRPH: Good first-half results across all segments (with the exception of a one-time event in Mining Royalties that will extend into H2). 💰Pro-rata NOI growing at an annualized rate of 21% since [----] with very interesting projects in the Industrial & Commercial https://t.co/LhKwrdTCsX FRP Holdings $FRPH: Good first-half results across all segments (with the exception of a one-time event in Mining Royalties that will extend into H2). 💰Pro-rata NOI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1821967591872848162) 2024-08-09T17:51Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements "2% ownership of $FRPH. 100% confident on the management" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1821983704711151715) 2024-08-09T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Que difcil es vender. Como deca Night Ranger "What's your price for flight" $IAG $ICAGY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1831706078456734038) 2024-09-05T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Water Intelligence on track: Franchise Acquisitions in Fresno & Louisiana + new market in Ireland 💰 Optimal financial situation to continue buying franchises 💻 Salesforce implementation done 🔁 Shares Buyback program pending for approval $WATR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1838895375769366903) 2024-09-25T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Biesse SPA 9M conference call: Reaffirming the thesis's sensations. Revenue: 20% lower YoY (-6% including GMM). Orders intake: -9% YoY in 9M with Q3 especially weak at 93M vs 178M (Q2 2024) and 145M (Q3 2023). $BSS #Biesse #SmallCaps New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1850958061193871549) 2024-10-28T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Navigator posted results last week. This excellent company is trading at PE [--] but you can buy it at PE [--] adding a cement business through the holding SEMAPA. $NVG $SEM" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1851257263320670360) 2024-10-29T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1851668487300579699) 2024-10-30T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A solid rock business enhancer of FRP Holdings real estate investments. $FRPH Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. https://t.co/kPgVNtbyj1 Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. https://t.co/kPgVNtbyj1" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1851671142030770627) 2024-10-30T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Part II: Liberty valuation + spinoff strategy is available now. Link in bio. I correct previous typo 🚨Spinoff key dates: 04/11: Record date 13/11: First market day $LBTYA $LBTYB $LBTYK https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851989231385645119 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851989231385645119" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1851989231385645119) 2024-10-31T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some reflections about Bayer Q3 $BAYN About the profit warning 🌱Crop Science margin adjusment is due to market environment as we will see. 💊The adjustment in Pharma margin is due to currency effect and secondarily to STI (incentives). Probably wil be close to the high range of the new guidance. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856387548907549163) 2024-11-12T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🌱On 9M basis reported sales adjusted for exchange rate fall by 2%. EBITDA vs [--] drained by R&D increase and currency effect. Competitors in Crop Science are suffering similar market environment. $CTVA $BASF $FMC" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1856387552451719495) 2024-11-12T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dowlais is right now only +5% over the price before offer. Is the market discounting the rejection Should $AXL increase their offer $DWL $DWL.LM Following our report two days ago American Axle's acquisition of Dowlais sent its shares soaring by 15%. #Dowlais $DWL $DWL.LN ➡ We called it 😂 Can a company remain cheap eternally cheap 👇👇 https://t.co/MXF7WbcuOw Following our report two days ago American Axle's acquisition of Dowlais sent its shares soaring by 15%. #Dowlais $DWL $DWL.LN ➡ We called it 😂 Can a company remain cheap eternally cheap 👇👇 https://t.co/MXF7WbcuOw" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1884944223641760146) 2025-01-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Grifols will present Q4 results on February 26th meanwhile: ➡CSL presented its H1 FY25 (second half of 2024) with a +10% increase in its plasma division highlighting the increase in donations and the decrease in CPL positive for the sector's margins. ➡Takeda reported Q3FY24 (ending in December) with a 10% increase in its plasma division also pointing to a recovery in donations. $GRF $GRFS $CSL $TAK" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1889714585139028191) 2025-02-12T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Burzian There was unusual volume at opening. The only info related is the recomendation of Morgan Stanley. https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/aktie-im-fokus-flatexdegiro-nach-empfehlung-stark-hoch-seit-drei-jahren-718775 https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/aktie-im-fokus-flatexdegiro-nach-empfehlung-stark-hoch-seit-drei-jahren-718775" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1889971071400738950) 2025-02-13T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Vulcan Materials $VMC moat sponsored by FRP Holdings $FRPH quarries" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1892183070372999624) 2025-02-19T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Specialty Chemicals dedicated to Nourish and Fragances is an interesting industry. This entry deserves a second part. $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI Check out our first Substack entry on https://t.co/1Yur2OBKvf where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI Check out our first Substack entry on https://t.co/1Yur2OBKvf where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1892517889141326330) 2025-02-20T10:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bayer +6% today. Overreaction lit with the euphoria on the DAX IMO. Need to be carefully analyzed. I will post an update next week on my blog. $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1897228718264987883) 2025-03-05T10:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Always interesting to read Cocoa insights about Liberty. $LBTYK $LBTYA Tomorrow is Monday yes. but we're going to start the week in a big way. #LBTYA https://t.co/gkTGdIiFCX Tomorrow is Monday yes. but we're going to start the week in a big way. #LBTYA https://t.co/gkTGdIiFCX" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1901561915765112861) 2025-03-17T09:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Dowlais Part I is published. We will analyze Dowlais Autoparts & the industry cycle and its medium-term prospects. Tomorrow Part II covering individual and combination valuation with American Axle. Link in bio $DWL $AXL $DAN $GEST $MGA $BWA $FRVIA $APTV $WAB $1316 $SHA0 $FR $ALV $BRE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903108621627490373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903108621627490373" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1903108621627490373) 2025-03-21T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The auto parts industry is at that point in the capital cycle of low returns consolidation and restructuring. I talk about it in my last publication illustrated with Industry Dashboards and diggin in Dowlais case. Link in bio $DWL $AXL $DAN $GEST $MGA $BWA $FRVIA $APTV $WAB $1316 $SHA0 $FR $ALV $BRE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903117126111465879 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903117126111465879" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1903117126111465879) 2025-03-21T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Dowlais Part II: Available on my blog. Link in bio $DWL $AXL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1904080755438891445) 2025-03-24T08:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Grifols - Brookfield round [--]. $GRF $GRFS https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2025-04-02/brookfield-retoma-contactos-grifols-opa_4099616/ https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2025-04-02/brookfield-retoma-contactos-grifols-opa_4099616/" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1907285447761379795) 2025-04-02T04:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LBTYK $LBTYA Telefnica estudia comprar el 50% a Liberty de la empresa conjunta en Reino Unido Informa @crcozar https://t.co/Wqr0HHRCmX Telefnica estudia comprar el 50% a Liberty de la empresa conjunta en Reino Unido Informa @crcozar https://t.co/Wqr0HHRCmX" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1909159135502819614) 2025-04-07T08:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dowlais released its Q1 [----] trading update reporting a 2.5% drop in sales and reaffirming its [----] guidance at the lower end of the range. The core of its Automotive division Driveline declined by 6% partially offset by recovery in ePowerTrain (+4%) and China (+11%). Group margins maintained thanks to the ongoing restructuring efforts by the company. Dowlais and American Axle continue to target their merger for Q4 [----]. Overall the sector anticipates a decline in volumes as reflected in the revised S&P Mobility forecast which estimates nearly [--] million fewer vehicles per year in [----]. Full" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1920797225254285536) 2025-05-09T11:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Grifols ADR +5% after Q1 results. Strong fundamentals and no significant maturities until [----]. Price still on Gotham City mood. $GRF $GRFS" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1921968643828588612) 2025-05-12T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bayer better than expected Q1 mainly in Pharma. Xarelto accelerated declining is offsetted by Nubeqa & Kerendia. No new provisions for litigations on Q1 vs FY. Working on a new update on my blog. Will probably be published tomorrow. $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1922188449261514838) 2025-05-13T07:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "RFK Jr.'s upcoming "Make America Healthy Again" report will target glyphosate as a health risk. Meanwhile almost all regulatory agencies $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1923036857190822242) 2025-05-15T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "American Axle intends to be listed in LSE. Combination with Dowlais on track. $AXL $DWL" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1923270565978099814) 2025-05-16T06:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bayer update just published covering: ➡RoundUp update ➡Q1 & Outlook ➡Agricultural market perspective ➡Pharma review Link in bio $BAYN $BAYRY" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1924400833287856150) 2025-05-19T09:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Grifols. One step further. $GRFS $GRF" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1925610545144619156) 2025-05-22T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@VanguardEconomy Forvia $FRVIA o algun otro Autoparts o OEM" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1927354572252536883) 2025-05-27T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Capri at a glance Price: $17 💸Prada's Offer for Versace: $11/share 1MK + 2JC Implied Price: $6/share 💸Versace 3Y Max: Sales $1.106M EBITDA 18% 1Michael Kors [----] Sales: $3.016M EBITDA 14% 3Y Avg: 20% 2Jimmy Choo [----] Sales: $605M EBITDA 5% 3Y Avg: 6% 📈E2029 Outlook: MK: Sales +5% CAGR EBITDA 20% JC: Sales +2% CAGR EBITDA 5% 🧻Napkin valuation: EV/EBITDA Target: 8x (vs. Tapestry 9x Av) Net Debt/EBITDA: 2.14x (Tapestry 1.43x) 🎯Price Target: $22.64 Upside: +33% Comment: Despite the agreement with Prada the company would remain in a demanding debt position awaiting MK's recovery. Q4 FY25 has" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1931956425074561300) 2025-06-09T06:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Big insider buy on Grifols. $GRF $GRFS" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1933563480130343100) 2025-06-13T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 06/25 - Forvia(Autoparts) 🔄 03/25 - Dowlais (Autopats) 🔄 01/25 - Drger (Health Equipment) 🔄 10/24 - Liberty (Telcom) 🔄 10/24 - Biesse (Machinery) 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* (Pharma-Plasma) 03/24 - Mo-Bruk (Waste serv) 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma) 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri❌ Other articles 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed ✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis & updates published on" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1935985089759809903) 2025-06-20T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Last few months have brought positive news for Bayer mainly on 💊Pharma side. 📈Various analysis houses have upgraded their forecasts. This has translated into a +38% increase from its lows. ❓Missing insider purchases that would support this momentum. $BAYN $BAYRY $BAYN.DE" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1938263077742420142) 2025-06-26T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Maven Capital Partners has entered on Water Intelligence with a 6% of capital and a target price of 3x the current trading price. I'm still waiting for the [----] Annual Report. $WATR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1938283227434668336) 2025-06-26T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A cost leader in a declining market can be an excellent investment. Navigator 🧻🗞 $NVG $SEM" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1938599463301402780) 2025-06-27T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Water Intelligence's [----] Annual Report is out. First impressions: Worried about structural cost eating too much of the pie of new EBIT. I'm not enthusiastic about this neither $WATR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1939976663208501511) 2025-07-01T09:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Publishing today a brief article with my reflections on Water Intelligence. Don't get angry one has to be critical. Link🔗 in bio. $WATR" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1940671295085216068) 2025-07-03T07:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bayer Pharma is accelerating in recent months. $BAYN $BAYN.DE" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1944683306521342200) 2025-07-14T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1965678719005327645) 2025-09-10T07:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🛩Wizzair thesis released Link in bio. $WIZZ Tomorrow new thesis: WizzAir ✈ Europe's cost leader 📈Strong growth potential ♻Favorable capital cycle 🔍Temporary challenges Full thesis on why this could be a bagger. Tomorrow 8:30 AM on my blog. $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY https://t.co/h2aQ1K855V Tomorrow new thesis: WizzAir ✈ Europe's cost leader 📈Strong growth potential ♻Favorable capital cycle 🔍Temporary challenges Full thesis on why this could be a bagger. Tomorrow 8:30 AM on my blog. $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY https://t.co/h2aQ1K855V" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1967853280127750390) 2025-09-16T07:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Wizzair $WIZZ will fill the gap of Ryanair in Spain. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2025/09/25/wizz-air-40-new-routes-spain-ryanair-retreats/ Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport charges and operational chaos. Aena responds by speaking of accusations of plutocracy and massive price hikes. Three key points on this: 1All increases in airport fees fines for charging for luggage and https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2025/09/25/wizz-air-40-new-routes-spain-ryanair-retreats/ Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1971471836539171187) 2025-09-26T07:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting interview with Bayer CEO Bill Anderson where he makes his ideas clear on how an organization should function: by reducing bureaucracy and hierarchy. $BAYN $BAYRY https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/bayer-ceo-bill-anderson-im-bild-interview-hat-bayer-das-schlimmste-ueberstanden-oder-noch-vor-sich-68f39ef7b6a97a0e756aab8b#fromWall https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/bayer-ceo-bill-anderson-im-bild-interview-hat-bayer-das-schlimmste-ueberstanden-oder-noch-vor-sich-68f39ef7b6a97a0e756aab8b#fromWall" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1980143656477532208) 2025-10-20T05:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "FRP Holdings acquires Altman Logistics for $33.5 million a minority partner in industrial land development projects in Lakeland and Davie. 🔐An important key of the acquisition is the specialist industrial development team crucial for the shift in the company's strategy from residential to industrial development. $FRPH" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1980865058650398736) 2025-10-22T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is starting. TGS +8%. $TGS Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS https://t.co/7U5IJUxwCP Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS https://t.co/7U5IJUxwCP" [X Link](https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1981297681751224713) 2025-10-23T09:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@DuckPond_VR DuckPond Value Research
DuckPond Value Research posts on X about $bayn, $frvia, $iag, $bayry the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +3.40%
- [--] Month [------] +183%
- [--] Months [------] +4.30%
- [--] Year [-------] +3.70%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +10%
- [--] Month [--] +61%
- [--] Months [---] +133%
- [--] Year [---] +63%
Followers: [---------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.18%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.70%
- [--] Months [-----] +13%
- [--] Year [-----] +44%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies countries currencies technology brands automotive brands luxury brands travel destinations social networks
Social topic influence $bayn #1, $frvia #1, $iag, $bayry, $axl #16, $dwl #1, $cpri, $lbtyk #1, $tpr, $lbtya #1
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @investorsrelat3 @horosfunds @yesmanmo @abrilquim @invtractiriano @realbillgross @krevixd @azvalor @paulcerro @gestiprudent @jruizruiz @matusstraznicky @joinyellowbrick @faan85 @vanguardeconomy @duckpondvr @martinv1816 @acapi10 @galiciainvestor @inversornovat0
Top assets mentioned Iagon (IAG) Axelar (AXL) Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) Liberty Global, plc. Class C (LBTYK) Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) Liberty Global (LBTYA) FarLaunch (FAR) Liberty Global plc Class B (LBTYB) Medicle (MDI) Corteva Inc (CTVA) First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. ADS (TGS) Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP (SEM) FAME AI (FMC) Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) Newmont Corporation (NEM) AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Cipher (CPR) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) Dana Incorporated (DAN) Aptiv PLC (APTV) The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Check out our first Substack entry on where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI"
X Link 2023-11-14T18:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Excellent investment thesis from Investment Notes substack about AERCAP with a conservative vision + an excellent management. That's the kind of company that we like. $AER"
X Link 2023-11-19T07:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"AERCAP $AER is one of those excellent capital management that we like. Great company great thesis. $AER Nueva tesis Gran empresa ejecutando plan de recompras y con el mejor equipo del sector https://t.co/V9jpS1bY0q $AER Nueva tesis Gran empresa ejecutando plan de recompras y con el mejor equipo del sector https://t.co/V9jpS1bY0q"
X Link 2023-11-21T09:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AbrilQuim Hola Quim aun estamos analizando en profundidad pero nos est gustando Mo-BRUK SA $MBR una compaa polaca de tratamiento de residuos que al aprox. 50% de capacidad de sus plantas est generando mrgenes EBITDA 40-50% con caja neta. A 7x EBITDA NTM"
X Link 2023-11-27T18:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Martin_V1816 @acapi10 @GaliciaInvestor No tiene desperdicio pero si queris ir a lo ms intemporal "Some Thoughts About Investing" en la pgina 16"
X Link 2023-12-14T06:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@inversornovat0 Eso hasta que un da todo el mundo en el entorno ha invertido en algo o conoce a un primo que se ha forrado con una crypto. Ese es el mejor termometro de la fase de greed absoluto"
X Link 2023-12-19T17:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"La cantidad que va a "invertir" el estado en Telefnica da para [--] das de pensiones. Esta inversin es tan solo para evitar la compra por parte de los saudes y controlar una empresa estratgica. Con este Estado que tenemos en Espaa prefiero que me dejen decidir a mi el vehculo en el que quiero componer mi pensin que dejarlo en manos de los gobiernos de turno. Mira lo que pas en Chile estuvieron a punto de hacer pblicas pensiones que ya eran privadas. De todos modos en Espaa ese debate ni existe"
X Link 2023-12-20T12:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"El juego est trucado. Con la situacin de la vivienda y de las pensiones esas herencias (aunque sea de una vivienda) puede ser la nica forma de construir algo de patrimonio para muchos. Las cotizaciones a la SS irn aumentando segn se jubile el baby boom y los salarios no les seguirn el rastro ni mucho menos. Los de 20-40 son rehenes del sistema con la nica salida la emigracin para prosperar de verdad"
X Link 2023-12-20T17:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@London888174 @JOSE_ESPECULATA @SeekingTheValue No se yo una vez en Oslo pagu por el bocadillo ms caro de mi vida. Haba hambre y vena de pasar frio. [--] en NOK"
X Link 2023-12-20T17:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Invtractiriano Lo pagaremos con desempleo. Sobre todo en las zonas ms necesitadas de desarrollo econmico"
X Link 2024-01-12T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"De acuerdo en parte pero no tan confiado sobre $ORCL por ejemplo. El problema no es solo que vayan a seguir sino cuanto crecimiento del reflejado en los mltiplos se dar. Y si Apple vende en [--] aos los mismos iPhones que hoy Seguira siendo una tecnolgica enorme y puntera pero a PE [--] ahora sera una inversin horrible"
X Link 2024-01-12T13:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Adding two key points on Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR thesis thanks to @BramdeHaas on Seeking Alpha: ➡The deal would create the fourth-largest luxury 💎 goods company by market cap at 5% (small impact in competition) ➡Of over +40 deals in the luxury sector all were completed. This special situation offers a 17% return at Friday's closing prices. Read the full thesis on the blog link in bio. Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation"
X Link 2024-01-28T11:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@tampablue87 Capri did a similar move previous to Q3-2023 results. And they announced "Given the pending acquisition of Capri Holdings Limited by Tapestry Inc. the Company does not intend to hold conference calls to review its financial results going forward.""
X Link 2024-02-01T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@oscar100_x Congrats and good luck"
X Link 2024-02-08T10:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@yagues92 @AbrilQuim No olvidemos que cuando el mercado sobredemanda sustitutos monetarios el emisor degrada la calidad de los mismos. La bomba de relojera est haciendo tik tak en algun lado. No tiene porque ser por ah pero nadie sabe "
X Link 2024-02-09T16:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@maikwonder @SlowDividend @InvirtiendoPaP Aun quedan malas noticias y sobre-reacciones del mercado a ellas pero hay que ver ms all. Si os interesa en mi substack tengo una tesis completa como turnaround"
X Link 2024-02-12T10:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@bbslznd @varunvasudeva23 @linakhanFTC @real_bill_gross @FTC @TheJusticeDept Distrust those who begin their sentences with "everyone knows." because there are no consensus. Good luck trying to put a long term fair value to MK + Versace + JC better than Tapestry management"
X Link 2024-02-13T10:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Buen capitulo sobre situaciones especiales: Comparto la visin de @KrevixD sobre Capri $CPRI y Tapestry $TPR. El gap se ha aumentado por los malos resultados de Capri en Q3 lo que hace pensar que el recorrido a la baja en caso de que no se apruebe el acuerdo podra ser superior"
X Link 2024-02-14T10:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"La falta de oferta ah donde la gente quiere vivir es indudable. Los otros factores son importantes y hay que solventarlos pero secundarios a la falta de oferta. Por ejemplo mira este twit de @victorianoi sobre Madrid. Y luego est el factor segunda vivienda (vacacional heredada en el pueblo. )"
X Link 2024-02-14T10:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Howard Marks @oaktree has an intuition regarding the capital cycle in commodities especially in oil and mining. $GOLD $STR $VALE $FCX"
X Link 2024-02-15T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@abaguena @fageiesa Que tiempos aquellos en primaria haciendo informtica como extraescolar jugando a los Blue Brothers en MS2. O luego en casa al Sid Meier's Civilization 1991"
X Link 2024-02-15T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"El caso de Prisa es interesante. Hay una lucha por el poder meditico no en vano poseen la primera radio y el primer peridico de este pas. Entre los franceses de Vivendi mas afines a la derecha los empresarios del PSOE que compran a travs de Global Alconaba los mejicanos Slim y Alcantara Rojas.creo que el nico que de verdad est interesado en recuperar la inversin es el [--] accionista el fondo activista Amber. El resto incluido el Santander solo les interesa el control del medio. Y el Gobierno no duda en usar el BOE para afectar a este triangulo de poder: En [----] sac la ley Anti Opa para que"
X Link 2024-02-16T06:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ProfesorDiv Tiene sentido. Hay otras compaas que venden negocios o segmentos en mal momento con tal de mantener su historial de dividendos en este caso toda centrarse en la situacin de la deuda y los litigios"
X Link 2024-02-20T06:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@El_Cid_Owneador @GustavoBolsa @azvalor Nvidia no ha duplicado ventas vendiendo a Microsoft o Cisco. Hay mucha inversin por todos lados que son cash flow futuro incierto"
X Link 2024-02-28T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Brief update on Bayer thesis regarding the FY23 results and the Capital Markets Day. Link in the bio"
X Link 2024-03-06T12:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"🗓On Wednesday I'll be releasing the full investment thesis on MoBruk $MBR a highly intriguing Polish small-cap specialized in waste management ♻ 💰Today as a preview I've published a brief macro analysis on Poland as part of the MoBruk thesis link on bio. 🎉I'd also like to mention that we've reached [--] followers on Substack and nearly [---] on Twitter a modest but gratifying audience considering the little and dense content I share. Thank you for your support"
X Link 2024-03-18T11:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just released the full investment thesis on MoBruk $MBR a Polish small-cap specialized in waste management ♻. Pure Peter Lynch style with "Not in my backyard" moat. Link in bio"
X Link 2024-03-20T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"En mis ltimas experiencias parece lo habitual subir el precio unos [------] del que ests dispuesto a vender de hecho los compradores empiezan por ah siempre. Hay que comparar porque en mi caso fui vendedor y no la puse con sobreprecio esperando bajar sino que la puse al precio al que quera venderla directamente. Esto propici que llegaran ofertas muy bajas pero el que se haba empapado del mercado de la zona saba por donde tirar"
X Link 2024-03-22T17:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Son muy buenos fondos. La apuesta actual de alguno de ellos es un poco contrarian y les est lastrando en [----] y [----] por ejemplo AzValor pero en el largo se ver si tena sentido (yo creo que si). [--] aos siempre sern pocos. Aadira ES0146309002 de @horosfunds. Por cierto en la web de @investorsrelat3 se puede profundizar en las posiciones de cada uno de forma muy visual"
X Link 2024-03-27T06:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Semapa $SEM worth a look 👁🗨 It trades at around a 40% discount to the value of its holdings in the company Navigator $NVG (of which it owns 70%) without taking into account the rest of the holding's businesses. Ahora mismo a precio de mercado la participacin de Semapa $SEM en Navigator $NVGR vale 2.000M. Semapa vale 1.160M en Bolsa. https://t.co/ogGxksquSG Ahora mismo a precio de mercado la participacin de Semapa $SEM en Navigator $NVGR vale 2.000M. Semapa vale 1.160M en Bolsa. https://t.co/ogGxksquSG"
X Link 2024-03-27T11:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Mobruk $MBR #Poland rises 3.5% supported by favorable outcome in the claim for a fee of [--] million PLN on the Walbrzych landfill (6% of sales). You have the link to the full thesis in my bio"
X Link 2024-04-04T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"La cotizacin de Nvidia est descontando un crecimiento de la IA salvaje para los prximos aos. Sus clientes que compran tarjetas y montan data centers estn transformando sus negocios incorporando todo lo que suene a IA. Pero cuando baje la marea veremos como muchas de esas inversiones en IA no generan flujos de caja lo bastante cercanos en el tiempo. No es un escenario nuevo es las .com [---]. Y por cierto llevar por bandera el Value Investing no te hace acertar siempre pero ah tienes a Warren Buffet Peter Lynch Munger Howard Marks Greenwald"
X Link 2024-04-05T08:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Novedades en los juicios de RoundUp de Bayer $BAYN: Como he avanzado en otras ocasiones los veredictos ms sonados acaban apelndose con reducciones significativas: ➡En este caso en un veredicto de [----] en Missouri se reduce en ms de un 50% la cuanta de la sentencia. La apelacin del caso de McKivision en Philadelphia la peor condena hasta la fecha tambin llegar"
X Link 2024-04-06T09:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Updates on Bayer 🌱RoundUp trials $BAYN: As I've mentioned before worst verdicts often end up being appealed with significant reductions. ➡In this instance a [----] verdict in Missouri saw the sentence amount reduced more than 50%. The appeal for the McKivision case in Philadelphia the worst to date will arrive"
X Link 2024-04-06T09:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Su versin podra ser correcta pero la mitad de los argumentos que utiliza son muecos de paja y la otra mitad simplificaciones y descontextualizaciones. Los gestores esos a los que acusa tienen casi el 100% del patrimonio invertido en sus vehculos en el caso de lvaro de Guzmn complementa su fondo con otros value espaoles como Horos. No hay necesidad de verter tanto hate contra un estilo de inversin aplica el tuyo difunde el tuyo (si quieres) y olvdate del vecino. Me resulta terriblemente curioso como es capaz de presentarnos el sesgo por aversin a la disonancia cognitiva sin aplicrselo a si"
X Link 2024-04-07T11:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BenderOfuscado La falacia de que como es un presupuesto otorgado no se quita de nada es simplemente absurda. [--] El presupuesto puede ser [-----] millones o [--] permitiendo aumentar [-----] millones otro presupuesto. [--] Si hay dficit fiscales recurrentes los presupuestos son papel mojado"
X Link 2024-04-12T16:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Capri Holdings $CPRI & Tapestry $TPR deal is moving forward. Today we got Japan & EU approval. https://tapestry.gcs-web.com/static-files/457fbb01-3aa6-44a7-833f-ab0167e0ffe7 https://tapestry.gcs-web.com/static-files/457fbb01-3aa6-44a7-833f-ab0167e0ffe7"
X Link 2024-04-15T16:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Capri $CPRI & Tapestry $TPR deal Last news"
X Link 2024-04-17T10:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Very good reflections on the situation of Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR"
X Link 2024-04-30T13:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@paulcerro Terribly hilarious: "The FTCs worldview cannot explain why consumers spend hundreds or more to buy a frog-shaped crossbody bag a bright pink puffed satchel or a top-handle bag that looks like a pizza box (all handbags that Kate Spade offers)""
X Link 2024-05-08T09:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their merger. The arbitrage thesis remains alive but the final verdict will be decided in the courts. Link in bio"
X Link 2024-05-15T11:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Gestiprudent Muy interesante la cartera. Compartimos unas cuantas. Sobre Capri he escrito bastante recientemente a ver si la poltica no chafa una buena oportunidad"
X Link 2024-05-19T10:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For English speaking followers Javier Ruiz is a Spanish fund manager who writes excellent quarterly letters for his participants. Highly recommended. In his latest one he adds a lot of value to the "active management vs. passive management" debate. Is there still a place for active managers in a market increasingly dominated by index funds Find out in our latest quarterly letter to our coinvestors. We also also discuss the most significant changes that we have made to our portfolios @horosfunds https://t.co/U31zYiamaN Is there still a place for active managers in a market increasingly"
X Link 2024-05-27T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Muy buen artculo de @investorsrelat3. El efecto del ciclo en el sector de servicios IT puede afectar de forma diferente a Nagarro $NA9 $EPAM Endava $DAVA y Globant $GLOB dado su posicionamiento en diferentes sectores"
X Link 2024-05-28T10:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Con el market cap actual de Navigator $NVG descontando la deuda holding y valorando el resto de negocios a [--] Semapa valdra [--] por accin cotizando a [--] actualmente. Una de las divergencias precio/valor ms claras que hay ahora mismo en el mercado bien aprovechadas por los value espaoles. Entre @BESTINVER @CobasFunds Magallanes y @horosfunds tienen aprox. 30% del float"
X Link 2024-05-28T10:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@creandocartera Si hubiera un fondo S&P493 en vez de equiponderado lo elegiras por encima de este"
X Link 2024-05-29T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Las bajadas de los mrgenes tienen sentido han aumentado empleados (+30) con menos ingresos. Lo de los costes laborales de Polonia van a seguir incrementndose pero su Coste Hora sigue debajo media. El invierno ha sido duro por all parece y las plantas de incineracin han estado paradas ms tiempo de lo normal y todo lo que se ha sacado va RDF deja menos dinero"
X Link 2024-05-29T10:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@volatilitysfray A un director de Banca le tuve que explicar una vez que me estaba ofreciendo un fondo de fondos. El nivel es mnimo por otro lado reflejo de la sociedad"
X Link 2024-05-30T09:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"IAG $IAG $ICAGY anda coqueteando con los [--] de nuevo. Una de las inversiones importantes de la cartera que acumula un 40% de rentabilidad con una TIR del 10%. El diferencial hasta el FV de 230-250 convertira una buena inversin en una excelente pero como deca @JRuizRuiz en su carta del Q4T23 "el comportamiento de una accin depende de los flujos de dinero de la comunidad inversora." Y como esa comunidad anticipe la ciclicidad del sector de las aerolneas te puedes quedar enganchado con tu turnaround que aunque sigas confiando en tu FV puede acabar siendo una mala inversin si lleva ms tiempo de la"
X Link 2024-05-30T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Meanwhile Lisa Khan and FTC are trying to prepare a definition of "accessible luxury". $CPR $TPRI"
X Link 2024-05-31T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Los mltiplos de Ryanair tambin son otros. Pero en cuanto a lnea area europea con rutas internacionales IAG es una buena jugada. Ha mejorado su eficiencia operativa respecto a pre-pandemia ha reducido enormemente la deuda y los mltiplos siguen muy por debajo por la desafeccin al sector. De todos modos para mi es una jugada turnaround a lo Lynch que volver a ser cclica. Si se cumplen los catalizadores puede ser venta pronto"
X Link 2024-06-01T11:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"El veredicto ms sonado en contra de Bayer $BAYN $BAYRY el de Mc Kivision en Philadelphia que llev a la cotizacin a caer un 12% en una semana con una indemnizacin al demandante de [-----] millones de $ se reduce a [---] millones tras la apelacin"
X Link 2024-06-05T07:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@thephoenixinv Seguro que aportara valor siempre y cuando te apetezca. Aunque el enfoque centrado en proporcionar buenos anlisis y que cada uno haga su due diligence me parece muy acertado"
X Link 2024-06-05T09:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@alan_btc @WinnerMon1 Agree. Check the full thesis first. https://open.substack.com/pub/duckpondvr/p/bayer-agr=30nf5w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/duckpondvr/p/bayer-agr=30nf5w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2024-06-05T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LocodlDividendo Bueno por otro lado traicion a sus votantes a los que les prometi liderar la oposicin si no ganaba. No creo que fuera una cuestin de sueldo sino de ego al verse demasiado para tan poco rol"
X Link 2024-06-10T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KrevixD @IcariaCap Me han dado ganas de estudiar a fondo a la directiva de Stellantis. Muy interesante"
X Link 2024-06-10T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael Kors. [--] Separate sale of all brands: $47 Still betting on 1"
X Link 2024-06-25T14:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Aena eleva la previsin de crecimiento del trfico areo al 83% en [----]. Buenos datos para $IAG"
X Link 2024-06-26T05:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$IAG en mnimos de posiciones cortas tras el cierre de la posicin de Glg Partners Lp. Hoy se est celebrando la AGM con la expectativa de alguna seal de la vuelta al dividendo"
X Link 2024-06-26T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Proceso de concentracin en las aerolneas europeas ✅Lufthansa + ITA Airways $LHA IAG + Air Europa $IAG Air France-KLM + SAS $AF ➕Flotas por debajo de [----] (efecto pandemia) ➕Retrasos en la entregas de Airbus ➕Problemas serios de Boeing Qu dira Chancellor del ciclo de capital en el sector"
X Link 2024-07-04T17:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dinerobolsa La causa es la adiccin pero mira es a uno de esos placeres que no estoy dispuesto a renunciar ni loco. Caf recin hecho butaca y lectura maanera es la mejor forma de empezar el da"
X Link 2024-07-08T10:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Today I am publishing a brief article where I reflect through the practical case of ✈ $IAG on how to manage a position whose fundamental thesis is being fulfilled but whose fair value has not surfaced 100%. Link in bio"
X Link 2024-07-09T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Justo ayer en mi blog hablaba de la importancia de la opinin de las casas de analistas para verse cumplidas las tesis hoy tenemos el ejemplo de Morgan Stanley aumentando PO de IAG y sube un 38%. Pero 👀a los insiders que hay reportando compras en los ltimos meses"
X Link 2024-07-10T08:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Undercovered Dozen: Spirit Airlines HubSpot Cigna First Quantum Minerals + https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705160-undercovered-dozen-spirit-airlines-hubspot-cigna-first-quantum-minerals-plus https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705160-undercovered-dozen-spirit-airlines-hubspot-cigna-first-quantum-minerals-plus"
X Link 2024-07-23T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Buensimo ejemplo. Lo que es de todos no es de nadie. No funciona ni para hacer un trabajo en la Universidad ni para gestionar una comunidad de vecinos y mucho menos una compaa grande o un pas"
X Link 2024-07-24T08:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@llymans @Invtractiriano Fe si. Ciega no. Yo me replante mi opinin con Tesla tras escucharle en el podcast de @InverRacional y despus de leer la biografa de Musk. De todos modos complementar con la tesis de @WorldStockss en las comidas puede aumentar la fe"
X Link 2024-07-24T08:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Un quarter no determina una tesis. Cada uno debe de hacer su propia investigacin no se basa en mirar videos. Al menos yo no trabajo as. Si escribes una tesis bajista modelizando escenarios planteando amenazas al coche elctrico o debilidades en alguna de las otras patas del crecimiento me la leer"
X Link 2024-07-24T09:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Por qu emits esos juicios de valor sobre terceros de los que desconocis absolutamente todo sabes cuan formada tena mi opinin antes he dicho que pre-podcast fuera bajista anti Tesla o anti Musk eres capaz de saber con todo lujo de detalles lo que he profundizado en ello desde entonces o cuanto ha variado mi opinin exactamente. Por cierto la biografa a la que hago referencia sali a finales de 2023"
X Link 2024-07-24T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Resultados de Air France $AF menos malos que los de Ryanair con mismas casuisticas. Revenue +43% (-1% RA) Operating Profit -30% (-49% RA)"
X Link 2024-07-25T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"29:30 $LLYVK"
X Link 2024-07-31T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Ya tenemos resultados de $IAG a priori buenos: 👌Los mejores dentro de su competencia europea como se puede ver en el dashboard. ✅Sigue reduciendo el nivel de deuda 💰Se retoma un pequeo dividendo de [--] cents per share por los primeros [--] meses con potencial aumento"
X Link 2024-08-01T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sobre $IAG y Air Europa parece que el regulador lo ha puesto imposible. Se abre la posibilidad de adquisicin de la portuguesa TAP"
X Link 2024-08-02T11:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Muy interesante la tesis que presenta @adriarivero_ sobre Watches Of Switzerland $WOSG. https://youtu.be/9Fn4PkNWjSUt=1345 https://youtu.be/9Fn4PkNWjSUt=1345"
X Link 2024-08-04T05:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JessMouri Menuda contraprogramacin le ha hecho el destino a IAG. Esa parte de la cartera debera estar dejando hueco a las dems pero bueno estamos cmodos ah"
X Link 2024-08-05T14:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The low (or negative) returns on low-risk assets in Japan drove retail investors to the stock market driven by government programs such as NISA. When the music stopped they left frightened. 🚨WHO BOUGHT THE DIP MONDAY NOT RETAIL. According to JP Morgan: - Retail: -$1 billion in net selling which is [----] standard deviations BELOW the 12-month average. - Institutional: +$14 billion in net buying which is +2.9 standard deviations ABOVE the 12-month average. https://t.co/xHS78vOBMz 🚨WHO BOUGHT THE DIP MONDAY NOT RETAIL. According to JP Morgan: - Retail: -$1 billion in net selling which is -2.5"
X Link 2024-08-07T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Liberty Global Ltd $LBTYA $LBTYK Horos Internacional - 5% cartera"
X Link 2024-08-07T11:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Grok image AI is promising"
X Link 2024-08-14T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bayer AG update just published covering: 🌱Crop Science performance & competitors 💊Pharma Portfolio review ⚖Update of RoundUp Litigations Link in bio $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2024-08-15T10:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Tapestry $TPR still betting in $CPRI A pesar los malos resultado de $CPRI El equipo de Tapestry $TPR sigue pensando que "The combination it's still a strong strategic fit .. The Company is confident and looks forward to presenting its strong legal arguments in court". El pelota sigue en movimiento. A pesar los malos resultado de $CPRI El equipo de Tapestry $TPR sigue pensando que "The combination it's still a strong strategic fit .. The Company is confident and looks forward to presenting its strong legal arguments in court". El pelota sigue en movimiento"
X Link 2024-08-15T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"There is no case but if there were here is a solid point $CPRI $TPR. Some people on here might not agree but really feel $CPRI s bad results increase the probability of the merger going through. Lina Khans whole case is based on the fact that Capri and Tapestry are near perfect competitors and follow each others policies very closely like Some people on here might not agree but really feel $CPRI s bad results increase the probability of the merger going through. Lina Khans whole case is based on the fact that Capri and Tapestry are near perfect competitors and follow each others policies very"
X Link 2024-08-16T07:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"100 subscribers on the blog. Thanks for reading"
X Link 2024-08-17T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bayer Roundup tracking dashboard Updated 19/08/24 $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2024-08-19T09:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Capri +6% IMO the market did not fully believe Tapestry's commitment and the presentation of allegations today makes this risk a little less real. $CPRI $TPR https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/68465585/161/federal-trade-commission-v-tapestry-inc/ https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/68465585/161/federal-trade-commission-v-tapestry-inc/"
X Link 2024-08-21T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The market does not see it realistic that $TPR will not sit down to renegotiate even with a victory against the FTC. And it can be a risk. I have the impression that market will remain skeptical about $57 until the end. For now it seems that expectations about the trial have begun to adjust"
X Link 2024-08-26T05:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The FTC attacked a pre-merger consumer survey for lack of questions about price sensitivity. While that's basically nothing the lawsuit's testimony has been pretty insecure. $CPR $TPR $CPR $TPR Excerpt of Deposition Transcript of Loren Smith https://t.co/cDtdmPiPBl $CPR $TPR Excerpt of Deposition Transcript of Loren Smith https://t.co/cDtdmPiPBl"
X Link 2024-08-28T05:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Degiro has $FTK.n $FTK new CEO from Morgan Stanley Europe. https://flatexdegiro.com/media/pages/investor-relations/news/720e224fa3-1724826395/240828_flatexdegiro-appoints-oliver-behrens-long-standing-ceo-of-morgan-stanley-europe-se-as-chief-executive-officer.pdf https://flatexdegiro.com/media/pages/investor-relations/news/720e224fa3-1724826395/240828_flatexdegiro-appoints-oliver-behrens-long-standing-ceo-of-morgan-stanley-europe-se-as-chief-executive-officer.pdf"
X Link 2024-08-28T06:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Capri/Tapestry vs FTC begins today Notice to potential buyers: any market segmentation may be used against you in the future. $CPRI $TPR FTC lawyer: There is an accessible luxurt market according to Tapestry own internal documents. The [----] DOJ Merger Guidelines uses HHI or the Philadelphia National Bank. This proposal violates both and would have violated the [----] Merger Guidelines. FTC lawyer: There is an accessible luxurt market according to Tapestry own internal documents. The [----] DOJ Merger Guidelines uses HHI or the Philadelphia National Bank. This proposal violates both and would have"
X Link 2024-09-09T16:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sunrise the spinoff of Liberty Global projected for Q4 expects to generate CHF [---] million in cash flow in [----] (CHF [---] million in 2023). Its main competitor Swisscom (market leader in Switzerland) trades at an average of [--] times FCF with less debt. At [--] times FCF Sunrise justifies 60% of Liberty's current market cap. Despite the debt differential between the two Sunrise is well financed and will benefit from the spinoff with a capital injection 👇 $LBTYA $LBTYK $LBTYB"
X Link 2024-09-09T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@paulcerro In the "Tiffany Jewelry" market Tiffany has pricing power"
X Link 2024-09-17T13:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4 de las [--] marcas de $IAG estn en el Top [--] de rentabilidad"
X Link 2024-10-05T11:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Shit happens. Let's take time to reflect learn and evaluate scenarios. $CPRI $TPR Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael Kors. [--] Separate sale of all Wells Fargo indicates to overweight Capri Holdings $CPRI Three scenarios proposed: [--] Capri & Tapestry win on court: $57 [--] Capri sells Versace & Jimmy Choo close to $39 and remains as a standalone company with a potential turnaround for Michael"
X Link 2024-10-25T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Gestiprudent En EUR FRA: MKO"
X Link 2024-10-25T11:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff valuation Just Released Part II: Liberty valuation + spinoff strategy Available today at 15:00 CEST 🚨Spinoff key dates: 04/11: Record date 13/04: First market day Special thanks to @CocoaBeansPod for his previous thesis where we learned and inspired. $LBTYA $LBTYB $LBTYK"
X Link 2024-10-31T07:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Continuing with $IAG competitors: Air France $AF is down 10% today due to weak margins combined with income data not as good as expected. Tomorrow $IAG. IAG will present results on the 8th meanwhile: Traffic data AENA just published Q3 results with +98% passengers in 9M vs PY with good Q3. Expected also increases in winter season [----]. Airlines increase +56% seats offered vs WS [--] Competitors Lufthansa posted a good Q3 in IAG will present results on the 8th meanwhile: Traffic data AENA just published Q3 results with +98% passengers in 9M vs PY with good Q3. Expected also increases in winter"
X Link 2024-11-07T09:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Still a preliminary quotation but with these prices for Sunrise and the Liberty Global small discount after the record date the IRR may be exceptional. $LBTYK $LBTYA $LBTYB $SNREV Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff https://t.co/GVF85TbH9c Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and"
X Link 2024-11-11T08:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"💊9M basis reported sales adjusted for exchange rate rising by 3.6%. EBITDA vs [--] drained by currency effect. On portfolio: Despite Xarelto declining Nubeqa and Kerendia are offsetting in Revenue"
X Link 2024-11-12T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The market is sovereign and when pessimism sets in and bad news comes one after another the falls cannot be questioned. For the long term this does not change my opinion"
X Link 2024-11-12T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@onewordtrader Dividend right now is peanuts and with current fundamentals is gonna keep weak. Could agreed in the rest"
X Link 2024-11-13T09:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TimmyMcCarthy It is a potential but I prefer not to depend on politics. On Pharma seems a 2y (more) in nowhere. But here the stability is a positive point (lets see how margins are pressured here)"
X Link 2024-11-13T11:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10% Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company. Part I: Sunrise spinoff https://t.co/GVF85TbH9c Sunrise the Liberty Global spinoff was approved on friday and @investorsrelat3 & myself have been studying the company and the brochure in depth. We bring you an exhaustive analysis of Sunrise and a valuation of the spinoff and the parent company."
X Link 2024-11-13T14:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sunrise expected implicit dividend yield close to 7% at these prices. (May25) Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10% Starting practically on par $LBTYK +11% $SNREV -10%"
X Link 2024-11-13T15:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hola compaero menudo asset allocation se ha marcado tu cliente. Brevemente te dir que el mayor riesgo est en los litigios aunque creo que lo peor ya ha pasado. Ganan muchos de los litigios y en muchos otros en apelacin reducen las multas. Este ltimo arren a la baja se debe al sector agro que viene de unos aos buenos. Los competidores estn igual o peor en este sentido. Bayer en Crop Science es una empresa top mundial Rk1/2 en semillas herbicidas fungicidas. Otro de los lastres es la parte Pharma. Les ha vencido la patente de un blockbuster y la maquinaria de R&D no ha producido suficiente para"
X Link 2024-11-13T19:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Trust the "plan" $CPRI"
X Link 2024-11-14T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Biesse approves a [--] million buyback program. The price is starting to look attractive for the Selci family. $BSS.MIL $BSS New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR"
X Link 2024-11-18T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bayer won another verdict yesterday in Philadelphia. Current scorecard 16/26. Meanwhile the class action litigation industry is facing refinancing problems caused by longer legal proceedings. This could tighten the conditions for accepting new cases. $BAYN $BAYRY https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/mass-tort-lawyers-trapped-in-cycle-of-debt-as-cases-drag-on https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/mass-tort-lawyers-trapped-in-cycle-of-debt-as-cases-drag-on"
X Link 2024-11-18T16:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@h805d Sorry but this is out of my scope. A reflection that is 100% speculation: $MMM litigations are municipalities (state) vs the company. Bayer is thousand of individual complains. Could make a difference in finaning matters"
X Link 2024-11-25T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$GRF $GRFS BROOKFIELD IS WALKING AWAY OVER VALUATION DISAGREEMENT - BBG https://t.co/EMY2F211z5 BROOKFIELD IS WALKING AWAY OVER VALUATION DISAGREEMENT - BBG https://t.co/EMY2F211z5"
X Link 2024-11-27T08:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Grifols potential (undisputed) is for whoever manages to unlock this. Brookfield came with the refinancing under its arm. $GRF $GRFS $GRF $GRFS $GRF $GRFS"
X Link 2024-11-27T09:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@European_DGI Fintwit is a bubble of knowledge respect and professionality 99% of the times. Good decision IMO i don't need more than X right now"
X Link 2024-11-29T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@YesManMO I'm impressed with this graph that i usually update every month. Still growing at +0.5% over previus month consistenly. Increased market activity whenever it comes will be an extraordinary revenue driver"
X Link 2024-12-04T09:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Summarizing first impressions on NotebookLM: long Google. $GOOGL"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flatex Degiro December Monthly KPI closing a positive 2024: 👥Strong customer growth (+1.4% over November) reaching +14% YoY. Excelent last Q. 📊Best DARTs figure in last [--] years: [----] vs [----] [----] 🎯DARTs + New customers aims for +30-40% in Commision Income QvQ. $FTK $FTK.n"
X Link 2025-01-08T08:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm currently analyzing Dowlais and making my own analysis but this guys have already lifted the correct stones here. Definetly worth reading 👀 $DWL.LN Can a bargain be a bargain forever 👉Dowlais $DWL.LN wants to sell its most profitable business (27% of its earnings) and could end up being worth only what its shares are currently worth. ✅What will happen to the stock Find out here: Link👇 https://t.co/uZ6p8p5UtZ Can a bargain be a bargain forever 👉Dowlais $DWL.LN wants to sell its most profitable business (27% of its earnings) and could end up being worth only what its shares are"
X Link 2025-01-27T12:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Dowlais $DWL.LN will be merged into American Axle. The offer includes cash + $AXL new shares + special dividend. The candy was too attractive. AAM today announced a combination with Dowlais for $1.44 billion in cash and stock. The combination creates a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier with a comprehensive product portfolio and diversified customer base. Read more: https://t.co/DS3DHoBSXX https://t.co/5v111pIN2Q AAM today announced a combination with Dowlais for $1.44 billion in cash and stock. The combination creates a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier"
X Link 2025-01-29T10:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Nueva entrada de Azvalor Internacional en Bayer $BAYN @azvalor https://t.co/2j69kIEQPE https://t.co/JQmY9UW2YX @azvalor https://t.co/2j69kIEQPE https://t.co/JQmY9UW2YX"
X Link 2025-02-03T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MatusStraznicky There are rumours around it. Some of the plaintiffs could be trying to settle all or a big part of the lawsuits. $BAYN"
X Link 2025-02-03T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"El futuro de empresas como Compagnie des Alpes $CDA https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-02-04/pinilla-estacion-esqui-nieve-montana-musica_4053440/ https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-02-04/pinilla-estacion-esqui-nieve-montana-musica_4053440/"
X Link 2025-02-04T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@YesManMO Seems that crypto launch helped. And is only in Germany. Still impressed: not only mantain but increase the %over previous month"
X Link 2025-02-05T08:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"FMC and Corteva have reported FY results slighly below previous forecasts and provided flat guidance for [----]. Sector expectations remain unchanged. Bayer will present results on March 5th. (1/3) $CTVA $FMC $BAYN"
X Link 2025-02-10T07:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Grifols ADR +10% after results publication. ➡Topline slightly better than peers: Takeda and CSL Berhing. Also impacted by better donation volumes and CPL. ➡Bottomline first impressions: improved margins and FCF. Improvements in WC will have to be thoroughly reviewed. The financial information has improved noticeably also. $GRF $GRFS"
X Link 2025-02-26T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flatex Degiro February Monthly KPI: 👥Continuing customer growth trend: +1.2% over January. 📊Same transactions vs Jan with [--] trading day less 💰AUC per customer reaching 25K $FTK.n $FTK"
X Link 2025-03-05T08:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@joinyellowbrick IMO $FFH.TO . But there are replacements on the bench on BRK"
X Link 2025-03-13T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Seems that Bayer was hit last week with a new verdict against them with [---] billion in compensation. It's a tough setback but remember that the amount could be lowered up to 90% in appellation. The Supreme Court recognizes as excessive punitive damages in excess of 8-9 times compensatory damages and in this case it exceeds [--] times. Ex: McKivision case [----] billion verdict was reduced to [----]. $BAYN"
X Link 2025-03-23T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Seems that Bayer was hit last week with a new verdict against them with [---] billion in compensation. It's a tough setback but remember that the amount could be lowered up to 90% in appellation. The Supreme Court recognizes as excessive punitive damages in excess of 8-9 times compensatory damages and in this case it exceeds [--] times. Ex: McKivision case [----] billion verdict was reduced to [----]. $BAYN"
X Link 2025-03-23T15:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 03/25 - Dowlais 🔄 01/25 - Drger 🔄 10/24 - Liberty 🔄 10/24 - Biesse 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* 03/24 - Mo-Bruk 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri ❌ Other insights 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis & updates published on Seeking Alpha. $DWL $DWL.LN $DRW8 $DRW3 $LBTYK $LBTYA $BSS.MI $BSS $MBR $BAYN $BAYRY $FTK.de $FTK $IAG $ICAG"
X Link 2025-03-24T10:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is this real"
X Link 2025-04-09T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flatex Degiro April Monthly KPI: 👥Continuing customer growth trend: +1.3% over March with 47k new customers. 📈DARTs over [---] 💰Cash at max with [----] BN Eur"
X Link 2025-05-06T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@faan85 Tomorrow you can draw your own conclusions"
X Link 2025-06-18T08:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Flatex Degiro $FTK $FTK.n June Monthly KPI: 👥Solid Customer growth: +0.70% over May on typical lower months. 📊Transactions activity is still at average. 🎯Good Q2 aiming for +18/20% on Commision Income over H1 [----] partially offsetted by lower interest on cash. (est. Total Revenue +9/11%)"
X Link 2025-07-03T12:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bayer is falling 8% despite last week upgraded guidance on Pharma & anticipation of $1.7bn provision. The unexpected was a weaker CF generation in Q2. Pharma due to increasing selling & R&D for future launches (Beyonttra scalation H2 & Lynkuet approval in H2) & FX effect. Crop due to receivables phasing from Q2 to Q3 (seen on seed volumes). Nubeqa & Kerendia growth is still offsetting Xarelto revenue loss. ⚖Strategy with glyphosate: Bayer is looking for protection for future litigations. Right now despite correct EPA labels Bayer could face demands. This herbicide is key for US ag🚜 40% of"
X Link 2025-08-06T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@iparatx Buy $SHELL. Sell $BUY"
X Link 2025-08-11T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Separate CEO for Porsche incoming $P911 WATCH: Porsche shares rose sharply following the news that the luxury sports car maker has begun the search for a successor to CEO Oliver Blume whose twin posts have been a contentious issue among shareholders https://t.co/sB9RV2ipEq https://t.co/47Q2KcnuIL WATCH: Porsche shares rose sharply following the news that the luxury sports car maker has begun the search for a successor to CEO Oliver Blume whose twin posts have been a contentious issue among shareholders https://t.co/sB9RV2ipEq https://t.co/47Q2KcnuIL"
X Link 2025-08-27T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport charges and operational chaos. Aena responds by speaking of accusations of plutocracy and massive price hikes. Three key points on this: 1All increases in airport fees fines for charging for luggage and other European regulations ultimately raise the cost for the passenger. 2If a key competitor withdraws the remaining ones will be able to raise their prices ( demand). 3In FY2025 Ryanair earned [----] cents per available seat-kilometre (ASK). And spent: ➡ [----] on operating costs (incl. [----] in airp. fees) ➡1.95 on fuel"
X Link 2025-09-07T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold Miners $GDX rally into perspective. Updated 9/9. $B $AEM $NEM $FCX $WPM $FNV $AU $GFI"
X Link 2025-09-10T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL"
X Link 2025-08-08T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"American Axle +10% due to slightly improved guidance. I find more interesting Dowlais H1 results showing that AXL is acquiring an already highly optimized structure after a strong restructuring process. Easy integration here. Combination thesis published on my blog on March. $DWL $AXL Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL https://t.co/UY2wbBszVw Dowlais & American Axle confirmed [----] guidance and targeting merge for Q4 [----]. 🎯Combined EV/EBITDA 2025e pre-synergies 5x. $DWL $AXL"
X Link 2025-08-08T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 09/25-WizzAir(Airlines) 🔄 06/25 - Forvia(Autoparts) 🔄 03/25 - Dowlais (Autoparts) 🔄 01/25 - Drger (Health Equipment) 🔄 10/24 - Liberty (Telcom) 🔄 10/24 - Biesse (Machinery) 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* (Pharma-Plasma) 03/24 - Mo-Bruk (Waste serv) 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma) 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri❌ Other articles 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed ✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis"
X Link 2025-10-15T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"American Axle presented Q3 [--] certifying the 2025FY guidance. All clear for Dowlais combination in Q1 [--]. Narrow arbitrage return 5% (fx risk) but there's value in the combination. $AXL $DWL"
X Link 2025-11-07T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The week in the 🦆Pond: ⚙ Monday Dowlais - Trading update Q3 After American Axle positive results Dowlais put a better thermometer on China leg of the future combination (Clear for Q1 26). 🌱💊 Thursday Bayer - Q3 Results $CTVA posted good results in the lower quarter for agriculture. Eyes on Pharma trend. ✈ Wednesday WizzAir - Q3 Results Topline +9% passengers 93.5% load factor. Eyes on RPK and Cost per ASK. Positive fuel trend. $DWL $AXL $BAYN $BAYRY $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY $WIZZ.LE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987768266559758799 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987768266559758799"
X Link 2025-11-10T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"American Axle + Dowlais merger will become reality in February after today's China approval. 🗓 February 3: last trading day for Dowlais 📥 [------] shares of AXL + [-----] GBX per DWL share 📈 Upside since thesis: 40% AXL upside remaining 🎯 Price target for AXL: 11-12 USD $AXL $DWL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012117304398536842 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012117304398536842"
X Link 2026-01-16T10:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"American Axle will be Dauch Corporation after Dowlais merge. Last day for mix & match selection for Dowlais shareholders 28/01/2026 12:00. $DCH $AXL $DWL"
X Link 2026-01-26T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"International Consolidated Airlines Capital Markets Day $IAG $IAG.GB $ICAGY Today is the $IAG Capital Markets Day highlighting: 🟢Strong position on airlines industry with controlled debt. 🟢Dividend expected at mid term priorizing balance sheet There's no limitations to see the stock on [--] https://t.co/ym8aHdNhZj Today is the $IAG Capital Markets Day highlighting: 🟢Strong position on airlines industry with controlled debt. 🟢Dividend expected at mid term priorizing balance sheet There's no limitations to see the stock on [--] https://t.co/ym8aHdNhZj"
X Link 2023-11-21T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio"
X Link 2024-01-11T11:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@real_bill_gross Capri $CPRI merge arb. make us feel confortable. https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745405879568994503s=20 Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI https://x.com/DuckPond_VR/status/1745405879568994503s=20 Capri Holdings $CPRI a special situation thesis in 💎luxury industry in colaboration with Investment Notes @investorsrelat3. Link in bio. https://t.co/JNmaRaDNkI"
X Link 2024-01-11T11:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tapestry $TPR Q2 report does not bring much news about the acquisition of Capri $CPR only highlighting: ➡Company expects to close in calendar [----] ➡Tapestry have started to pay financing cost of the acquisition"
X Link 2024-02-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Beyond Meat +43% $BYND Teleperformance -15% $TLP EMH"
X Link 2024-02-28T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"IAG (British Iberia) $IAG $IAG.GB $ICAGY [----] results and [----] expectations comments: 🟢Op. Margin 12% vs 10% [----]. 🟢Net Debt/EBITDA [---] reduced in [-----] m in [----] 🟢"Demand continues to be robust with particular strength in leisure travel. We are currently 92% booked for Q1 [----] and 62% booked for H1 2024* ahead of our position last year" In line with what we observe from air traffic data"
X Link 2024-02-29T07:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Next week IAG $IAG $ICAGY will release results and they promise to be positive. Demand for commercial flights remains strong ✈📈. ➡In Q1 +12.3% of commercial flights compared to [----]. ➡April +13%"
X Link 2024-05-02T17:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lufthansa $LHA and Air France $AF Q1 highlights: ✈Passengers Lufthansa +12% Air France +6% 📈Revenue Lufthansa +5% Air France +5% 👨✈Staff costs Lufthansa +17% Air France +12% On friday we'll have $IAG Q1 results"
X Link 2024-05-07T08:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Howard Marks is betting on Argentina . He has 3% of his portfolio invested in these companies $VIST - Vista Oil & Gas S.A.B. de C.V. $TEO - Telecom Argentina S.A. $PAM - Pampa Energa S.A. $YPF - YPF S.A. $BMA - Banco Macro S.A"
X Link 2024-05-17T05:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Semapa $SEM presents its results tomorrow where we will be paying close attention especially to the comments regarding possible acquisition moves by the holding company. Diworsification is the most "worrying" part of the thesis in a holding company that owns 70% of Navigator $NVG the No. [--] UWF fine paper manufacturer in Europe and which is also one of the low-cost producers thanks to the integration of its production process"
X Link 2024-05-23T06:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"✈IAG $IAG $ICAGY is around [--] again. Its one of the significant investments in the portfolio currently with a 40% return with an IRR of 10%. The gap with the FV of 2.30-2.50 would turn a good investment into an excellent one but as @JRuizRuiz mentioned in his Q4T23 letter "the behavior of a stock depends on the cash flows from the investor community." And if that community anticipates the cyclicality of airlines you might find yourself stuck with your turnaround. Even if you still believe in your FV it can turn into a bad investment if it takes longer than expected. 🎯The timing of the sale is"
X Link 2024-05-30T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Prem Watsa $FFH increased its bet on the legal victory of Capri $CPRI and Tapestry $TPR in Q1. Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their merger. The arbitrage thesis remains alive but the final verdict https://t.co/nN0R5nSJot Capri: Round [--] The Legal Battle In today's article in collaboration with @investorsrelat3 we delve into the key aspects of Capri's $CPRI and Tapestry's $TPR lawsuit in response to the FTC's blockage of their"
X Link 2024-05-31T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Consolidation Process in European Airlines ✅ Lufthansa + ITA Airways $LHA IAG + Air Europa $IAG Air France-KLM + SAS $AF ➕ Fleets below [----] levels ➕ Delays in Airbus deliveries ➕ Serious problems with Boeing What would Chancellor say about the capital cycle in the sector https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808913077410079061 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808913077410079061"
X Link 2024-07-04T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Vulcan Materials $VMC steadly growing prices on aggregate has a positive impact in FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. FRP Holdings $FRPH: Good first-half results across all segments (with the exception of a one-time event in Mining Royalties that will extend into H2). 💰Pro-rata NOI growing at an annualized rate of 21% since [----] with very interesting projects in the Industrial & Commercial https://t.co/LhKwrdTCsX FRP Holdings $FRPH: Good first-half results across all segments (with the exception of a one-time event in Mining Royalties that will extend into H2). 💰Pro-rata NOI"
X Link 2024-08-09T17:51Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements
"2% ownership of $FRPH. 100% confident on the management"
X Link 2024-08-09T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Que difcil es vender. Como deca Night Ranger "What's your price for flight" $IAG $ICAGY"
X Link 2024-09-05T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Water Intelligence on track: Franchise Acquisitions in Fresno & Louisiana + new market in Ireland 💰 Optimal financial situation to continue buying franchises 💻 Salesforce implementation done 🔁 Shares Buyback program pending for approval $WATR"
X Link 2024-09-25T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Biesse SPA 9M conference call: Reaffirming the thesis's sensations. Revenue: 20% lower YoY (-6% including GMM). Orders intake: -9% YoY in 9M with Q3 especially weak at 93M vs 178M (Q2 2024) and 145M (Q3 2023). $BSS #Biesse #SmallCaps New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR New thesis on my blog: Biesse SpA a leading machinery manufacturer company for wood stone and glass is now available on my blog. Link in bio. https://t.co/0zBuZhQLOR"
X Link 2024-10-28T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Navigator posted results last week. This excellent company is trading at PE [--] but you can buy it at PE [--] adding a cement business through the holding SEMAPA. $NVG $SEM"
X Link 2024-10-29T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment"
X Link 2024-10-30T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A solid rock business enhancer of FRP Holdings real estate investments. $FRPH Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. https://t.co/kPgVNtbyj1 Vulcan Materials $VMC continues steadly growing prices on aggregate +10% YoY despite the lower volume -10%. The lower volumes will come out of the earth but at higher rates. FRP Holdings $FRPH ⛏Mining Royalty Segment. https://t.co/kPgVNtbyj1"
X Link 2024-10-30T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Part II: Liberty valuation + spinoff strategy is available now. Link in bio. I correct previous typo 🚨Spinoff key dates: 04/11: Record date 13/11: First market day $LBTYA $LBTYB $LBTYK https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851989231385645119 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1851989231385645119"
X Link 2024-10-31T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some reflections about Bayer Q3 $BAYN About the profit warning 🌱Crop Science margin adjusment is due to market environment as we will see. 💊The adjustment in Pharma margin is due to currency effect and secondarily to STI (incentives). Probably wil be close to the high range of the new guidance. 🧵"
X Link 2024-11-12T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🌱On 9M basis reported sales adjusted for exchange rate fall by 2%. EBITDA vs [--] drained by R&D increase and currency effect. Competitors in Crop Science are suffering similar market environment. $CTVA $BASF $FMC"
X Link 2024-11-12T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dowlais is right now only +5% over the price before offer. Is the market discounting the rejection Should $AXL increase their offer $DWL $DWL.LM Following our report two days ago American Axle's acquisition of Dowlais sent its shares soaring by 15%. #Dowlais $DWL $DWL.LN ➡ We called it 😂 Can a company remain cheap eternally cheap 👇👇 https://t.co/MXF7WbcuOw Following our report two days ago American Axle's acquisition of Dowlais sent its shares soaring by 15%. #Dowlais $DWL $DWL.LN ➡ We called it 😂 Can a company remain cheap eternally cheap 👇👇 https://t.co/MXF7WbcuOw"
X Link 2025-01-30T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Grifols will present Q4 results on February 26th meanwhile: ➡CSL presented its H1 FY25 (second half of 2024) with a +10% increase in its plasma division highlighting the increase in donations and the decrease in CPL positive for the sector's margins. ➡Takeda reported Q3FY24 (ending in December) with a 10% increase in its plasma division also pointing to a recovery in donations. $GRF $GRFS $CSL $TAK"
X Link 2025-02-12T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Burzian There was unusual volume at opening. The only info related is the recomendation of Morgan Stanley. https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/aktie-im-fokus-flatexdegiro-nach-empfehlung-stark-hoch-seit-drei-jahren-718775 https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/aktie-im-fokus-flatexdegiro-nach-empfehlung-stark-hoch-seit-drei-jahren-718775"
X Link 2025-02-13T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Vulcan Materials $VMC moat sponsored by FRP Holdings $FRPH quarries"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Specialty Chemicals dedicated to Nourish and Fragances is an interesting industry. This entry deserves a second part. $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI Check out our first Substack entry on https://t.co/1Yur2OBKvf where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI Check out our first Substack entry on https://t.co/1Yur2OBKvf where we covered the amazing sector of Specialty Chemicals: Flavors & Fragances. Roll down for highlights $IFF $GIVN $DSFIR $SY1 $NZYM $KRZI"
X Link 2025-02-20T10:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bayer +6% today. Overreaction lit with the euphoria on the DAX IMO. Need to be carefully analyzed. I will post an update next week on my blog. $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2025-03-05T10:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Always interesting to read Cocoa insights about Liberty. $LBTYK $LBTYA Tomorrow is Monday yes. but we're going to start the week in a big way. #LBTYA https://t.co/gkTGdIiFCX Tomorrow is Monday yes. but we're going to start the week in a big way. #LBTYA https://t.co/gkTGdIiFCX"
X Link 2025-03-17T09:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Dowlais Part I is published. We will analyze Dowlais Autoparts & the industry cycle and its medium-term prospects. Tomorrow Part II covering individual and combination valuation with American Axle. Link in bio $DWL $AXL $DAN $GEST $MGA $BWA $FRVIA $APTV $WAB $1316 $SHA0 $FR $ALV $BRE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903108621627490373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903108621627490373"
X Link 2025-03-21T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The auto parts industry is at that point in the capital cycle of low returns consolidation and restructuring. I talk about it in my last publication illustrated with Industry Dashboards and diggin in Dowlais case. Link in bio $DWL $AXL $DAN $GEST $MGA $BWA $FRVIA $APTV $WAB $1316 $SHA0 $FR $ALV $BRE https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903117126111465879 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903117126111465879"
X Link 2025-03-21T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Dowlais Part II: Available on my blog. Link in bio $DWL $AXL"
X Link 2025-03-24T08:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Grifols - Brookfield round [--]. $GRF $GRFS https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2025-04-02/brookfield-retoma-contactos-grifols-opa_4099616/ https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2025-04-02/brookfield-retoma-contactos-grifols-opa_4099616/"
X Link 2025-04-02T04:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LBTYK $LBTYA Telefnica estudia comprar el 50% a Liberty de la empresa conjunta en Reino Unido Informa @crcozar https://t.co/Wqr0HHRCmX Telefnica estudia comprar el 50% a Liberty de la empresa conjunta en Reino Unido Informa @crcozar https://t.co/Wqr0HHRCmX"
X Link 2025-04-07T08:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dowlais released its Q1 [----] trading update reporting a 2.5% drop in sales and reaffirming its [----] guidance at the lower end of the range. The core of its Automotive division Driveline declined by 6% partially offset by recovery in ePowerTrain (+4%) and China (+11%). Group margins maintained thanks to the ongoing restructuring efforts by the company. Dowlais and American Axle continue to target their merger for Q4 [----]. Overall the sector anticipates a decline in volumes as reflected in the revised S&P Mobility forecast which estimates nearly [--] million fewer vehicles per year in [----]. Full"
X Link 2025-05-09T11:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Grifols ADR +5% after Q1 results. Strong fundamentals and no significant maturities until [----]. Price still on Gotham City mood. $GRF $GRFS"
X Link 2025-05-12T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bayer better than expected Q1 mainly in Pharma. Xarelto accelerated declining is offsetted by Nubeqa & Kerendia. No new provisions for litigations on Q1 vs FY. Working on a new update on my blog. Will probably be published tomorrow. $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2025-05-13T07:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"RFK Jr.'s upcoming "Make America Healthy Again" report will target glyphosate as a health risk. Meanwhile almost all regulatory agencies $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2025-05-15T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"American Axle intends to be listed in LSE. Combination with Dowlais on track. $AXL $DWL"
X Link 2025-05-16T06:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bayer update just published covering: ➡RoundUp update ➡Q1 & Outlook ➡Agricultural market perspective ➡Pharma review Link in bio $BAYN $BAYRY"
X Link 2025-05-19T09:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Grifols. One step further. $GRFS $GRF"
X Link 2025-05-22T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@VanguardEconomy Forvia $FRVIA o algun otro Autoparts o OEM"
X Link 2025-05-27T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Capri at a glance Price: $17 💸Prada's Offer for Versace: $11/share 1MK + 2JC Implied Price: $6/share 💸Versace 3Y Max: Sales $1.106M EBITDA 18% 1Michael Kors [----] Sales: $3.016M EBITDA 14% 3Y Avg: 20% 2Jimmy Choo [----] Sales: $605M EBITDA 5% 3Y Avg: 6% 📈E2029 Outlook: MK: Sales +5% CAGR EBITDA 20% JC: Sales +2% CAGR EBITDA 5% 🧻Napkin valuation: EV/EBITDA Target: 8x (vs. Tapestry 9x Av) Net Debt/EBITDA: 2.14x (Tapestry 1.43x) 🎯Price Target: $22.64 Upside: +33% Comment: Despite the agreement with Prada the company would remain in a demanding debt position awaiting MK's recovery. Q4 FY25 has"
X Link 2025-06-09T06:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Big insider buy on Grifols. $GRF $GRFS"
X Link 2025-06-13T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"📌List of contents in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 06/25 - Forvia(Autoparts) 🔄 03/25 - Dowlais (Autopats) 🔄 01/25 - Drger (Health Equipment) 🔄 10/24 - Liberty (Telcom) 🔄 10/24 - Biesse (Machinery) 🔄 07/24 - Grifols* (Pharma-Plasma) 03/24 - Mo-Bruk (Waste serv) 🔄 12/23 - Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma) 🔄 Special situations 10/24 - Sunrise✅ 01/24 - Capri❌ Other articles 02/25 - Degiro: Value to Growth 07/24 - Opportunity cost applied to IAG 03/24 - Poland Macro Analysis Expected updates 🔄 Thesis completed ✅ Thesis failed ❌ *Grifols thesis & updates published on"
X Link 2025-06-20T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Last few months have brought positive news for Bayer mainly on 💊Pharma side. 📈Various analysis houses have upgraded their forecasts. This has translated into a +38% increase from its lows. ❓Missing insider purchases that would support this momentum. $BAYN $BAYRY $BAYN.DE"
X Link 2025-06-26T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Maven Capital Partners has entered on Water Intelligence with a 6% of capital and a target price of 3x the current trading price. I'm still waiting for the [----] Annual Report. $WATR"
X Link 2025-06-26T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A cost leader in a declining market can be an excellent investment. Navigator 🧻🗞 $NVG $SEM"
X Link 2025-06-27T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Water Intelligence's [----] Annual Report is out. First impressions: Worried about structural cost eating too much of the pie of new EBIT. I'm not enthusiastic about this neither $WATR"
X Link 2025-07-01T09:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Publishing today a brief article with my reflections on Water Intelligence. Don't get angry one has to be critical. Link🔗 in bio. $WATR"
X Link 2025-07-03T07:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bayer Pharma is accelerating in recent months. $BAYN $BAYN.DE"
X Link 2025-07-14T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS"
X Link 2025-09-10T07:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🛩Wizzair thesis released Link in bio. $WIZZ Tomorrow new thesis: WizzAir ✈ Europe's cost leader 📈Strong growth potential ♻Favorable capital cycle 🔍Temporary challenges Full thesis on why this could be a bagger. Tomorrow 8:30 AM on my blog. $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY https://t.co/h2aQ1K855V Tomorrow new thesis: WizzAir ✈ Europe's cost leader 📈Strong growth potential ♻Favorable capital cycle 🔍Temporary challenges Full thesis on why this could be a bagger. Tomorrow 8:30 AM on my blog. $WIZZ $RYAAY $RYA $WZZZY https://t.co/h2aQ1K855V"
X Link 2025-09-16T07:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Wizzair $WIZZ will fill the gap of Ryanair in Spain. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2025/09/25/wizz-air-40-new-routes-spain-ryanair-retreats/ Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport charges and operational chaos. Aena responds by speaking of accusations of plutocracy and massive price hikes. Three key points on this: 1All increases in airport fees fines for charging for luggage and https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2025/09/25/wizz-air-40-new-routes-spain-ryanair-retreats/ Ryanair will reduce its capacity in Spain due to the increase in airport"
X Link 2025-09-26T07:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting interview with Bayer CEO Bill Anderson where he makes his ideas clear on how an organization should function: by reducing bureaucracy and hierarchy. $BAYN $BAYRY https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/bayer-ceo-bill-anderson-im-bild-interview-hat-bayer-das-schlimmste-ueberstanden-oder-noch-vor-sich-68f39ef7b6a97a0e756aab8b#fromWall https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/bayer-ceo-bill-anderson-im-bild-interview-hat-bayer-das-schlimmste-ueberstanden-oder-noch-vor-sich-68f39ef7b6a97a0e756aab8b#fromWall"
X Link 2025-10-20T05:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FRP Holdings acquires Altman Logistics for $33.5 million a minority partner in industrial land development projects in Lakeland and Davie. 🔐An important key of the acquisition is the specialist industrial development team crucial for the shift in the company's strategy from residential to industrial development. $FRPH"
X Link 2025-10-22T05:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is starting. TGS +8%. $TGS Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS https://t.co/7U5IJUxwCP Time to explore Gas & Oil. $TGS https://t.co/7U5IJUxwCP"
X Link 2025-10-23T09:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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