# ![@DerivativesDon Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1826942278188818432.png) @DerivativesDon Derivatives Don

Derivatives Don posts on X about in the, if you, money, trade the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1826942278188818432/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1826942278188818432/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +2.80%
- [--] Month [-------] +207%
- [--] Months [---------] -44%
- [--] Year [----------] +545%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1826942278188818432/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1826942278188818432/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [---] -35%
- [--] Month [---] +54%
- [--] Months [-----] +74%
- [--] Year [-----] +47%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1826942278188818432/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1826942278188818432/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +0.02%
- [--] Month [------] +1%
- [--] Months [------] +8.30%
- [--] Year [------] +272%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1826942278188818432/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1826942278188818432/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #5920 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  5.18% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  2.59% [countries](/list/countries)  2.07% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.55% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.52% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  0.52% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.52%

**Social topic influence**
[in the](/topic/in-the) #6009, [if you](/topic/if-you) 7.77%, [money](/topic/money) 7.77%, [trade](/topic/trade) #3113, [to the](/topic/to-the) 7.25%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #1695, [debt](/topic/debt) #1958, [fed](/topic/fed) 6.22%, [level](/topic/level) 5.18%, [spx](/topic/spx) 5.18%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@bitcoinnewscom](/creator/undefined) [@dannydayan5](/creator/undefined) [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@dampedspring](/creator/undefined) [@agonzalezmp](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@ksidiii](/creator/undefined) [@theflowhorse](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@fejauinc](/creator/undefined) [@basedmoneylich](/creator/undefined) [@alphainvestorss](/creator/undefined) [@datboibonvpvrt](/creator/undefined) [@methodandtheory](/creator/undefined) [@jwnfl007](/creator/undefined) [@solomonsseal16](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@hafeedaleppo](/creator/undefined) [@nolawhiskeyneat](/creator/undefined) [@zadditude](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG)](/topic/$dkng)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Silver - Fool Me Once The first bounce ran The second one sold hard ahead of the level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022052455278948431)  2026-02-12T20:57Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@agonzalezmp @BitcoinNewsCom Do you even begin to have a clue as to what the primary driver of global equity market appreciation is right now Public debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022140733080449102)  2026-02-13T02:48Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@agonzalezmp @BitcoinNewsCom I agree going forward But as an equity owner if you think you are being robbed means you dont understand it was not alpha in the first place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022144400680530412)  2026-02-13T03:02Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@dotkrueger It is trying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022423326384361916)  2026-02-13T21:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Not looking good BTC - Hanging out in the danger zone Distribution still the name of the game with the sharp rejection of the [---] day and work against [--] hour chart. Tomorrow will be decision day for longs heading into the weekend (dont tell me about 24/7 liquidity). https://t.co/9K7ZqNlkMn BTC - Hanging out in the danger zone Distribution still the name of the game with the sharp rejection of the [---] day and work against [--] hour chart. Tomorrow will be decision day for longs heading into the weekend (dont tell me about 24/7 liquidity). https://t.co/9K7ZqNlkMn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017051286592487808)  2026-01-30T01:44Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I am absolutely amazed how many people are all of a sudden awake to the Lauder connection. Would advise you to contemplate which is the old money and which is the new money when thinking bout the implications"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017066443066536034)  2026-01-30T02:44Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Gold [--] Minutes NY tried to run it up into the close but Asia sold it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017076855786905771)  2026-01-30T03:26Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Think about what this has come to With vol like we have seen over the past few months people should have been scaling risk and leverage down Instead retail was running into the fire via leveraged ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017328875131269562)  2026-01-30T20:07Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why did it bottom where it did Wiped away all of Januarys 60% gain. Calendar matters - the psychology of being meaningfully negative in January is DEVASTATING for anyone who gets paid for performance. Its the equivalent of living in the far northern hemisphere on the winter solstice for the next [--] months straight. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017600414087008273 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017600414087008273"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017600414087008273)  2026-01-31T14:06Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The road to H is paved with carry Tom Lee's billions in staked ETH about to yield him 100k a year while hes at a 20billion loss Tom Lee's billions in staked ETH about to yield him 100k a year while hes at a 20billion loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017660842771206602)  2026-01-31T18:06Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$BTC has lost more than [--] years worth of 3% inflation coverage in the last 3+ months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017671370977542286)  2026-01-31T18:48Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"One of the best things I learned over the course of [--] years trading When a price looks too good or too bad you either made a mistake or dont know what part of the distribution you bought/sold. Never say DONE when this happens - ASK QUESTIONS Nothing is broken the two prices that make up basis are not the same thing. Yesterday's 19% discount to NAV broke the record set on 10/10/2008 the day the TARP was introduced during the Global Financial Crisis. Before Friday's collapse SLV had about $60 billion in assets. The chart above shows that the silver market is now broken meaning there is a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017964734889296069)  2026-02-01T14:14Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The best long/short trade Long X accounts that educate you on things they truly understand Short X accounts that act like they know everything and feel obligated to pontificate on all of it Thank Silver for highlighting the value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017979647124808116)  2026-02-01T15:13Z 13.5K followers, 21.6K engagements


"Insider trading for the people This probably wont be a popular take but I actually like the Polymarket insider trading. Before prediction markets the Warsh stuff would have leaked to like 2-3 global macro funds who would position to make billions in PnL. Now one guy is greedy and destroys the Polymarket This probably wont be a popular take but I actually like the Polymarket insider trading. Before prediction markets the Warsh stuff would have leaked to like 2-3 global macro funds who would position to make billions in PnL. Now one guy is greedy and destroys the Polymarket"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2017988481352413441)  2026-02-01T15:48Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"This is the height of being an irresponsible human being You said similar on Friday at down teens Show your work or stop messing with people who might mistakenly follow you You are a blind squirrel at best on this topic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018125105751117836)  2026-02-02T00:51Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@alphainvestorss Was referencing crypto Treasury companies But yes people trading overnight hedge fund desks with less than enviable roles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018138987102126432)  2026-02-02T01:46Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@GlobalMacroZen Not one single meaningful institutional account can operate until 9:30 AM NY time tomorrow. It used to only apply to equities But now with ETFs it absolutely includes fixed income Outside of FX and commodities sourced out of Asia you are watching the retail trading market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018141154697425013)  2026-02-02T01:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Goalies fighting in hockey is a mockery. Sad to see it for the second time in weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018163626868179318)  2026-02-02T03:24Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$BTC Charts Started with a break of the [---] day 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018171359428248010)  2026-02-02T03:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"4 hours confirmed the distribution 2/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018171365652566506)  2026-02-02T03:55Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Breakof the [---] Week makes the straights more dire [---] Week the near term target 3/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018171372363452838)  2026-02-02T03:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Silver Asia continues to sell the [--] minute level even as it tried to inflect higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018174464064622765)  2026-02-02T04:07Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Gold Same game as Silver with a lower beta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018174941221224549)  2026-02-02T04:09Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"When you quote $MSTR average $BTC price since [----] would be nice to also include the return on the liability it is hedging Inflation was 3-4% per year Assuming smooth acquisition over the time period inflation was about 10-12% in total"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018307298293108941)  2026-02-02T12:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Good piece if you want to strengthen your reserve management brain. As with most concepts it just isnt as difficult as some people would lead you to believe. More about creative thinking than any high level math. New link: https://x.com/jstatistic/status/2018301547357102288 https://x.com/jstatistic/status/2011797080780521815s=61 https://x.com/jstatistic/status/2018301547357102288 https://x.com/jstatistic/status/2011797080780521815s=61"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018307950008287236)  2026-02-02T12:58Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"A lot of good info here even if I disagree with his view on the primary driver (policy rate vs level of debt) - good lesson for US with all the screaming about the levelof Fed Funds. As has been the case for years BOJ slow to react to inflation. More inflation than policy rate. This is the root cause of the problem not public debt (because there is plenty of DOMESTIC savings). With that some combo of long end rates and FX need to be the adjustment factor. Given the domestic savings level the long end rate wants to be the primary release valve but BOJ buying of the long end is preventing that."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018314682000355480)  2026-02-02T13:24Z 13.5K followers, 16.6K engagements


"Silver [--] Minutes Respect the charts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018320322055786673)  2026-02-02T13:47Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Cash [--] Hours Nothing to see here above [----] and [----] [----] moves me to indifference only below [----] would I become a hater"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018321170127298662)  2026-02-02T13:50Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Another night of right direction wrong magnitude Nothing ever happens before 9:30AM NY time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018321395738947688)  2026-02-02T13:51Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheFlowHorse You have to be pretty smart for someone to let you lose that much money especially out in the wide open. So no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018337899918315786)  2026-02-02T14:57Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"If you dont want to believe my hypothesis on the relative unimportance of futures price action vs cash. 4hr charts of each respective instrument Sleep at night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018427172889706958)  2026-02-02T20:51Z 13.5K followers, 27.9K engagements


"Gold [--] Minutes First visit rejected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018526412798558666)  2026-02-03T03:26Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@DannyDayan5 The question is Predominantly policy rate or long end rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018666509149884601)  2026-02-03T12:42Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Crypto - ETHUSD playing the role of anchor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018679049288040843)  2026-02-03T13:32Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@f_wintersberger Same goes for corporate bonds and MBS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018699848095002708)  2026-02-03T14:55Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"NASDAQ - Early warning indicator These levels on the [--] hour chart only about 1.5% away vs similar SPX levels which are 2.5% away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018701754703962440)  2026-02-03T15:02Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Keep in mind with dividend yields on a [--] handle and the policy rate on a [--] handle sideways trading in SPX starts to leave a negative carry mark. Even worse for NASDAQ with a sub 1.00% div yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018703846478934325)  2026-02-03T15:11Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"USDJPY - Approaching big level After a weak attempt to pause at the [---] hour approaching the moving averages on the [--] hour chart. They can use the stick again but it wont have any staying power until they use the carrot (raise policy rate and/or let the long end yields go)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018718925282795764)  2026-02-03T16:11Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$ETHUSD finally drowned $BTCUSD Crypto - ETHUSD playing the role of anchor https://t.co/qvxt6iJMVC Crypto - ETHUSD playing the role of anchor https://t.co/qvxt6iJMVC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018757944049860839)  2026-02-03T18:46Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"$BTC bigger picture Initial impulsive move from high was [---] bucks. The extension should be about another [---]. No need to get cute call it somewhere above that [---] week likely somewhere in the low 60s. Big paintbrush trade - no paint by numbers permitted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2018761119842599189)  2026-02-03T18:58Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Silver [--] Minutes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019050288594801039)  2026-02-04T14:07Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"NASDAQ 4hr chart Becoming disliked here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019056462975193459)  2026-02-04T14:32Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@TotemMacro Spot on In addition to the legacy assets PE brought into the insurance space they all but forced legacy insurance companies to play catch up in the regulatory down in quality up in yield grab trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019090295770538306)  2026-02-04T16:46Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The market nudging The MOF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019149243592679515)  2026-02-04T20:41Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Silver - Hourly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019243211164963109)  2026-02-05T02:54Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Realized volatility is an asset owners worst nightmare It requires lower prices smaller positions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019244063296483440)  2026-02-05T02:57Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX - we have arrived"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019436832363360333)  2026-02-05T15:43Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Price never kills leverage does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019438521061396539)  2026-02-05T15:50Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@LukeGromen Policy rate vs inflation issue in opposite directions in the respective countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019442711305093343)  2026-02-05T16:07Z 13.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Remember when you used to have to show up in a bank to get a loan Remember the due diligence process around being able to trade on margin Now they let you have leverage just like they let you buy any other stock. Leverage kills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019517426946437182)  2026-02-05T21:04Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Charts [--] Hour holds [--] Minute the line of distribution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019519604108968038)  2026-02-05T21:12Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Always keep this in mind @dbaeza13 Dont ever put yourself in a position where someone elses irrationality can last longer than you can stay liquid @dbaeza13 Dont ever put yourself in a position where someone elses irrationality can last longer than you can stay liquid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019519805913772168)  2026-02-05T21:13Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Charts First things first - the volatility once again means long term bulls should be hoping for a number of days of sideways trading not a bounce. Will be watching for sellers against the [--] minute levels. A move lower will be looking for [----] the [---] day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019758671517843711)  2026-02-06T13:02Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"NASDAQ Chart Damaging move yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019759428388507872)  2026-02-06T13:05Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"USDJPY [--] Hours They were tempting the MOF and with no immediate retribution they are now boldly buying the level [--] Minute charts have caught up and are providing additional buying support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019760335306043426)  2026-02-06T13:09Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Draft Kings $DKNG Bears were already in control on the Daily charts - but some pretty bad timing for a crypto puke a few days head of The Degen National Holiday this Sunday The real professional sharps showing no respect as they work against the levels on the [--] minute chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019761980073009543)  2026-02-06T13:15Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Silver trying to build a base above the [--] Minute levels The sell zone 4% above us - will be very surprised if it is not sold hard as this will be North Americas first chance at it since the 15% drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019764493765444093)  2026-02-06T13:25Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@datboibonvpvrt Agree the best way to deal with it is to raise the policy rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019767345623798215)  2026-02-06T13:37Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"To anyone saying Treasury cant extend the duration of their debt issuance I challenge you A lot of new supplies in bonds and equity hitting the market this yr. A lot of new supplies in bonds and equity hitting the market this yr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019771517848957071)  2026-02-06T13:53Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Intellect is table stakes Psychological make up the sufficiency You get paid to hold risk Risk takers are in far shorter supply than intellectuals You get paid to hold risk Risk takers are in far shorter supply than intellectuals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019776151879606508)  2026-02-06T14:12Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"This is 100% on point If you dont believe this you dont know what resources you are up against. The playing field is so tilted within the institutional world long before you get to retail. @JeffNadu I dont know about you but I think pro surgeons should encourage amateurs not to do surgery in their spare time Pro wrestlers should encourage amateurs not to copy their stunts And yes pro traders should encourage amateurs to trade less @JeffNadu I dont know about you but I think pro surgeons should encourage amateurs not to do surgery in their spare time Pro wrestlers should encourage amateurs not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019919481745662450)  2026-02-06T23:41Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@MarkYusko Fair value This is the root cause of the problem There are [--] NFL teams they have positive cashflow - what is their value based off this same fair value multiple you speak of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019941950481154317)  2026-02-07T01:11Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@fallacyalarm @yieldsearcher But public debt is increasing at the pace you claim makes them richer. If you assume as a citizen that you are not responsible for the debt its a wonderful bliss. Long term bonds are pre-paid taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020174364902322325)  2026-02-07T16:34Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA Makes sense if you believe the duration of The Feds balance sheet will be contracting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020174640988188936)  2026-02-07T16:35Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Would suggest people focus on - Primary deficit which moves liquidity from savers to consumers - Any change in the duration of the net debt held by savers. It changes the capacity of savers to fund investment (whether public or private). Unless coupons are funded with something dramatically different than the current net WAM of Treasury and Fed they have very little effect on risk taking capacity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020175952270037461 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020175952270037461"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020175952270037461)  2026-02-07T16:40Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@yieldsearcher Well reality is the tariff flation will be the cause of any deflation. The only question is if growth will save the day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020317384574468389)  2026-02-08T02:02Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@Ksidiii I would argue that a good trader would never enter a casino"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020318918863466708)  2026-02-08T02:09Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@yieldsearcher It is so complicated. Chaos messing with psychology The one time increase in the long run without doubt lead to lower aggregate demand which leads to lower prices. At the same time AI may shift the supply curve lower Timing Who knows Good luck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020319963421319481)  2026-02-08T02:13Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@Ksidiii Interesting I try to educate my children and my friends about how completely degenerate that behavior is. Have seen peoples lives destroyed and its obvious to me why. I am not the weirdo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020326588181803428)  2026-02-08T02:39Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@methodandtheory @Ksidiii This is one of the most important qualities of great traders They find a way to remove emotion Entertainment A risk taker does not engage in things with expected losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2020346622337773790)  2026-02-08T03:59Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@JWnFL007 @Tallow_beach @RobinWigg @Tim10337907 Have been on the road - was not following the trade at all. How does the original poster know who the account is But always willing to be involved when food and basis may be involved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021371009883046199)  2026-02-10T23:49Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@dampedspring Assets at all time highs If not now when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021643640565903725)  2026-02-11T17:52Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"This is such a silly idea How hot do you want to run it 4% - [--] years to cut the debt in half 6% - [--] years tocut the debt in half 4% will chaos 6% will create destruction People say we cant increase taxes or extend debt because it will destroy the stock market and tax receipts Ha https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021757353574506722 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021757353574506722"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021757353574506722)  2026-02-12T01:24Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@dampedspring @saylor Crushing $BTC under his own weight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021761130041909284)  2026-02-12T01:39Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@SolomonsSeal16 @dampedspring Any chance you read his write up Seems quite logical to me. Would need to ask the Fed members why they disagree with it or see things differently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021765922017472563)  2026-02-12T01:58Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"Now why would any debtor think they were never going to pay off their debt I wonder what percentage would say this in Japan But then again they dont have a Dow at 50k For those who are doubting the veracity here is the source. 47% have credit card balance so the median is indeed zero. https://t.co/xNXr5tBTwt For those who are doubting the veracity here is the source. 47% have credit card balance so the median is indeed zero. https://t.co/xNXr5tBTwt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021773470296645929)  2026-02-12T02:28Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA So we are supposed to live in a world of extraordinary measures when the only thing that is extraordinary is how concentrated all that wealth effect is accruing too. We can do better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021951969040945636)  2026-02-12T14:18Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"SPX Charts - [--] Hour (Negative) Carry On Level remains rock solid But This cant go on given the negative carry They will need to choose one way or the other sooner rather than later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021963065135178189)  2026-02-12T15:02Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Would you prefer to call it a binary option It too has carry dictated by the time value decay on the implied vol. Why do you think the credit curve often times charges less for longer tenors than shorter tenors Because if you survive [--] years your conditional probability of lasting [--] years increases dramatically . So yes even the default probability behaves just like option vol. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021967318146797948 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021967318146797948"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2021967318146797948)  2026-02-12T15:19Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"BTC - 50% extension of initial impulse playing out Likely stops short of the [---] Week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019437756964049074)  2026-02-05T15:47Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited @albertocavallo How the bottom half of the graph plays out will continue to mess with peoples psychological reaction to price increases. Tariff related price increases feel just like inflation at first especially if they are implemented on a rolling basis. Macro TACO Or Cost-of-Living Capitulation https://t.co/xUOBPmNPXM Macro TACO Or Cost-of-Living Capitulation https://t.co/xUOBPmNPXM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2019838589962465431)  2026-02-06T18:20Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@fejau_inc @DannyDayan5 The winners starting to throw the losers overboard Carry killing the mob on the broader sideways trade Either the winners moon or the losers pull everyone underwater The boat cant just keep floating for too much longer - taking on too much water"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022034733191008371)  2026-02-12T19:47Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@HafeedAleppo @J_Bremnes @BitcoinNewsCom What if the move between en 12/31 and tax payment day was just the beginning of a down trade that lasted for months beyond the tax payment date Its all hypothetical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022050690890444965)  2026-02-12T20:50Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@BasedMoneyLich @DannyDayan5 @fejau_inc Crypto model not applicable here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022055460103454962)  2026-02-12T21:09Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@stormholloway @BitcoinNewsCom Dont drink the kool aid Its a luxury to have that write off Its a matter of choices What is the source of gains since [----] And how about those paying inflation taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022075514207580307)  2026-02-12T22:29Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Large_Farva2 @nolawhiskeyneat @BitcoinNewsCom If we are talking about stocks like $AAPL - what they do is inconsequential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022137790113423541)  2026-02-13T02:36Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@Zadditude Sometimes false signals tell you more than anything else Just like the hourly on SPX - too many false signals So I treat them as early warning signals - but not an actual indicator More broadly the instability is NOT bullish even if it does not make them bearish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022139896824283318)  2026-02-13T02:44Z 13.5K followers, [--] engagements


"Fist pounding table very hard Process Start out with macro Use Daily and [--] Hour to determine tone Operate against 30/60 minute charts with strength of tone in mind. Never trade against macro Never trade against charts When they both line up - make your living. Leads me to believe that someone is entering a position (recession crash) vs exiting a position Will give the exit argument this - all have been profitable trades and/or if top of the house at a pod shop doing it they are not panicking just conducting business in a smart way Leads me to believe that someone is entering a position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833902315733930029)  2024-09-11T16:15Z 13.5K followers, 165.4K engagements


"The current root cause for high Fed Funds is too much QE and too much ATI Doing even more ATI (issuing even more Bills) is throwing kerosene on the fire you are HOPING will go out as you Term In the debt Spending financed with Billissuance is the single largest source of leverage in the system which in turn is a major contributor to consistently high inflation. The cure for high long term Treasury rates is MOAR long term debt not less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939850312275435989)  2025-07-01T00:55Z 13.5K followers, 137.7K engagements


"@BitcoinNewsCom You knew what your gain and the tax bill would be on December [--]. Choosing not to sell on that date meant you decided to take investment risk by not selling that amount on December [--]. No need to make it seem more complicated than it is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022032335005454387)  2026-02-12T19:37Z 13.5K followers, 73.9K engagements


"@Factcheckmy0 @BitcoinNewsCom Well if you take some time to think about it one would be delta hedging this tax risk throughout the year as the risk evolves. May be easier to think more clearly about public finances without the rose colored glasses on - inflation is no free ride"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022053898413126046)  2026-02-12T21:03Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@PetrKorous @BitcoinNewsCom What do you do when you owe income tax Do you divest of some of your employment You can choose how to source your tax payment beyond how you generated the income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022138263595847892)  2026-02-13T02:38Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheFlowHorse Survival is rule #1 You cant accomplish anything once you die"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022147627996131698)  2026-02-13T03:15Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@AahanPrometheus Please say more on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022498984594673980)  2026-02-14T02:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Says a lot when a post gets more bookmarks than likes People know D well that there is great info in the post. But They are so blown away by their initial read that they bookmark it and forget to like it https://t.co/TMfZyosdbC https://t.co/TMfZyosdbC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022711084755321232)  2026-02-14T16:34Z 13.5K followers, 70.9K engagements


"Leads me to believe that someone is entering a position (recession crash) vs exiting a position Will give the exit argument this - all have been profitable trades and/or if top of the house at a pod shop doing it they are not panicking just conducting business in a smart way For what it is worth most of the things I hear people scratching their heads about were all sold against relevant technical levels post the number this morning. A few USDJPY [---] period [--] minutes Oil same SPX same NASDAQ same ETH/BTC same For what it is worth most of the things I hear people scratching their heads about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833899945541161466)  2024-09-11T16:06Z 13.5K followers, 154.4K engagements


"What if we happen to be in a trend down market Dutch investors will benefit from forced selling. I will agree that in the long run in a world with positive nominal policy rates Dutch investors will not be the optimal marginal buyer (at any time). But it will also be the case that their public finances will be in better order - this will be a benefit to other citizens/taxpayers. Its just a matter of choices. Why do fixed income players pay taxes when they receive coupons Why not let them defer the tax realization if they simply reinvest the coupon in the same bond No position here just trying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2022036914870550709)  2026-02-12T19:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@TXMCtrades [---] Trillion in investments currently sitting in US Treasuries will mature over the next [--] months. How will they ever find instruments to invest in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/2023071098401603926)  2026-02-15T16:25Z 13.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Leverage cocktail is brewing Fixed income guys now talking about how much balance sheet their equity brethren are requiring to provide equity TRS to support levered ETF business (think 2x 3x etc ETFs). Fits with talk of all time record open interest in futures space 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1857146494736048464)  2024-11-14T19:40Z 13.5K followers, 50.6K engagements


"Whether or not you agree - we will now have someone sitting in one of the most influential economic seats in the world who believes that. Treasury supply and the duration of that supply matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1870909045546307699)  2024-12-22T19:07Z 13.5K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Some may be reacting to tape bombs But when they do someone who has already made up their mind on direction of macro is taking advantage of any bid to continue to.LIQUIDATE This does not happen for days on end against [--] Minute charts that frequently [---] day at risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1897677277913137634)  2025-03-06T15:54Z 13.5K followers, 28.4K engagements


"HYG Hedged This is just credit spread expressed in price terms so you can appropriately compare % of your money earned or lost (never use % change in yield/spread) Moral to the story - just beginning 2nd moral - Fed doesnt care about SPX but does care about this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1899213338804113486)  2025-03-10T21:38Z 13.5K followers, 36.5K engagements


"@BobEUnlimited What if the economy was a house of cards and you had two choices 1) build yet another story on top of the house 2) start dismantling the house that is certainly not up to code so you could build something out of proper material"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1899236864940531869)  2025-03-10T23:12Z 13.5K followers, 10.6K engagements


"People losing their wig because Bessent is saying the quiet part out loud What was The Fed trying to do when it quickly hiked rates in [----] Don't say bring inflation down because they don't control inflation (clearly). 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902002029645455868)  2025-03-18T14:19Z 13.5K followers, 12.1K engagements


"Miran telling you exactly what Bessent telling you Going to be bumpy and painful transition from Government to Private Investment And it's not just the government spending it's all the downstream non-government jobs that feed off it Chose not to believe them at your own risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1904225865413628306)  2025-03-24T17:36Z 13.5K followers, 79.2K engagements


"BTC becoming a hospice for CEOs with failed business models"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905220870139699452)  2025-03-27T11:30Z 13.5K followers, 374.5K engagements


"Never trade against macro Never trade against charts When they both line up - make your living"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1905628198185947307)  2025-03-28T14:29Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Be nice to your friends who went home still long on Friday. Been a rough [--] weeks and week [--] not starting out any better. [----] remains the next downside target Obviously a tremendous amount of risk this week but having more effect on the longs than the shorts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1906472194214912114)  2025-03-30T22:22Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@fejau_inc Agree that pressure on stale longs will be quite severe ahead of Wednesday. Not much I would accept from one of my team if they had passed at the chance to sell that 5% rally back to the [---] day in SPX. Sometimes you just have to be told thats enough (for your own good) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1906514372211400892)  2025-03-31T01:10Z 13.5K followers, 19.9K engagements


"Important to understand this is a completely different environment than late summer/fall reaction to Fed rate cuts Tariffs lead to lower real consumption which in and of itself solves inflation and eventually leads to job cuts. Fed CUTS entire curve rallies. Lots of attention to Goldman raising its recession forecast to 35%. Less over them raising their inflation forecast. Cut rates with rising inflation will be taken badly by the bond market. Remember the bond yield reaction to the rate cuts in September They went straight up. Lots of attention to Goldman raising its recession forecast to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906677734148812940)  2025-03-31T11:59Z 13.5K followers, 16.1K engagements


"💯right take 1) Risk managers are not even involved yet. Selling over the last [--] weeks has been from a coalition of the willing 2) BTFD when you do does not mean go long. Only two positions until macro changes short and the new long FLAT. Until markets actually panic I see no reason to BTFD even if you are short. There is no panic this morning. Very orderly. Until markets actually panic I see no reason to BTFD even if you are short. There is no panic this morning. Very orderly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1906680701795140078)  2025-03-31T12:11Z 13.5K followers, 67.2K engagements


"Nature of the rally today tells you a lot This was not the bear market rip your face off short covering rally. IMHO someone was TWAPing large rebalancing order all day long with a few JPM Collar gamma Remoras along for the ride. Another lesson - futures prices don't matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906804554198290743)  2025-03-31T20:23Z 13.5K followers, 11.6K engagements


"In case you are inclined to do reckless things in the middle of the night. Open a nice bottle of wine put your phone away Never trade against your: MACRO CHARTS No one gets promoted for anything that happens after 9PM Nothing good happens below the [---] Day Flat or short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1907537338592538628)  2025-04-02T20:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Risk managers will now be forced to get involved Will no longer just be the coalition of the willing Reminder absolutely no chance for big accounts to operate in equities and to a great extent bonds overnight. FX will provide a clearer look especially once London walks in 💯right take 1) Risk managers are not even involved yet. Selling over the last [--] weeks has been from a coalition of the willing 2) BTFD when you do does not mean go long. Only two positions until macro changes short and the new long FLAT. 💯right take 1) Risk managers are not even involved yet. Selling over the last [--] weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1907563091518165035)  2025-04-02T22:37Z 13.5K followers, 12.8K engagements


"SPX Charts Jump to the last page of the book Near term target is [----] area And no the market is absolutely not oversold NEVER I repeat NEVER Trade against your Macro or Trade against your Charts LONG IS NOT A POSITION TODAY Speed date - vol is your friend WEEKLY 1/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1907760159159451748)  2025-04-03T11:40Z 13.5K followers, 10.4K engagements


"I fear there are still several large accounts that have yet to react to the past [--] weeks price action The price action has exhibited few signs of capitulation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1908107558151143596)  2025-04-04T10:41Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Charts Bears still in total control Short or Flat the only two positions. If you want to entertain yourself Real Short Less Short Flat You never read stories about how much people made on the countertrend trade in the middle of a crisis for a reason Daily 1/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1909571812121313569)  2025-04-08T11:39Z 13.5K followers, 12.7K engagements


"The move in swap spreads is alarming Are people selling USTs to meet margin calls rather than de-levering the actual risk asset Are banks refusing to warehouse the USTs (vs swaps) forcing Treasuries to cheapen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909699992715206824)  2025-04-08T20:08Z 13.5K followers, 170.5K engagements


"Reminder that the market value of Treasuries determines the amount of collateral investors have at their disposal. On the margin lower Treasury prices means less available leverage in the system. Viscous feedback loop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1909911750406774946)  2025-04-09T10:10Z 13.5K followers, 17.6K engagements


"We have just moved from the Tariff War to the Real War part of the program. Chaos will continue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910044922998063130)  2025-04-09T18:59Z 13.5K followers, 10.8K engagements


"@fundstrat @jonfortt @CNBCOvertime @FundstratCap @fs_insight Markets are not oversold This is regime change - you need to step back You are a smart guy pause reflect think about how big the moment is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910121005508423798)  2025-04-10T00:01Z 13.5K followers, 12.5K engagements


"Suggestion for everyone This is not a QE world anymore Mommy will not save you/save Trump (Fed) More risk than return. Respect the rip but we are not looking for a place to get long @fundstrat @jonfortt @CNBCOvertime @FundstratCap @fs_insight Markets are not oversold This is regime change - you need to step back You are a smart guy pause reflect think about how big the moment is https://t.co/iMZPVRg8dO @fundstrat @jonfortt @CNBCOvertime @FundstratCap @fs_insight Markets are not oversold This is regime change - you need to step back You are a smart guy pause reflect think about how big the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910121896638562405)  2025-04-10T00:05Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I think we are about to separate the QE/ATI trend following up and to the right crowd of the past [--] years from real traders Just a hunch but I will tell you when I am wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910131267321872560)  2025-04-10T00:42Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Important to understand how realized volatility of the past week past month will remain as a dark rain cloud over this market Leverage will not be able to reach the levels that were necessary to generate the ATH levels in equities earlier this year for quite some time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910310068651700371)  2025-04-10T12:33Z 13.5K followers, 49.5K engagements


"Dollar crisis you say. Do you remember what happened last time US was downgraded Risk manager shows up ASAP Tells you to reduce your risk You sell risky assets in your portfolio and replace them with the least risky assets (still) out there You buy USTs Questions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910368011695120525)  2025-04-10T16:23Z 13.5K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Anyone who sold VIX [--] or below on yesterday's rally please report to the principal's office"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910393608978440698)  2025-04-10T18:05Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"If you are panicking/feeling uneasy you likely have too much risk on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910660896176701885)  2025-04-11T11:47Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Listen closely to what large real money managers are telling you on Bloomberg in the context of swap spreads There is a lot of debt coming and will continue to come None of them wants to be first to buy it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910663194378436640)  2025-04-11T11:56Z 13.5K followers, 10K engagements


"Hearing people are buying SPX in a huge flight to quality trade Make bonds great again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1910704437498179688)  2025-04-11T14:40Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Some bad news for you You cant pretend it never happened You cant make the political (mis)steps go away You cant make the realized vol go way You cant undo all of the damage to business planners Have a playbook for tomorrow - and ignore the magnitude of any move tonight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911391411116667089)  2025-04-13T12:09Z 13.5K followers, 26.1K engagements


"The single most important price is not SPX or the 30yr UST rate Its Volatility And volatility means there is an SPX cap (risk manager call) not a Fed put The maximum amount of leverage available to the market is now capped and so is your max total return. Invest accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911394007017456053)  2025-04-13T12:20Z 13.5K followers, 96.6K engagements


"VIX in no mans land between [--] and [--] Either things are bad enough that something will break == we should be above [--] 2.5% daily implied move until something breaks Or things are not bad enough to do real damage == we should be below [--] less than 2% daily implied move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1911754973169299862)  2025-04-14T12:14Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"If there is one person who doesnt get to criticize what is happening with bonds it is Janet Maybe she should say I am sorry Had their chance with term and equity risk premium low and swap spreads at a much more reasonable level Chose politics over good policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911772859740959078)  2025-04-14T13:25Z 13.5K followers, 38K engagements


"Can't help himself - saying the quiet parts out loud BREAKING: Donald Trump right now: We may want countries to choose between us or China BREAKING: Donald Trump right now: We may want countries to choose between us or China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912242255290675634)  2025-04-15T20:30Z 13.5K followers, 18.3K engagements


"Bulls will look back and realize the worst thing that ever happened was last Wednesdays rally Too little participation Too much all at once Too much contribution to VAR limit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912282118983410126)  2025-04-15T23:09Z 13.5K followers, 20.5K engagements


"SPX Charts Perma bear No pragmatist. You are being emotional if you don't realize how bearish Macro is here Level rejected longs still trapped Whoever was operating against the [--] minute charts throws in the towel Opens up move back towards WEEKLY levels Hourly 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912478250183410015)  2025-04-16T12:08Z 13.5K followers, 11.3K engagements


"This is what matters to Powell - pay attention But it will take months not days Companies cant raise any debt right now https://t.co/0NmyVUvzkP Companies cant raise any debt right now https://t.co/0NmyVUvzkP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912485677754704376)  2025-04-16T12:38Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"What has happened so far and what is likely to come 1) Macro flipped from liquidity driven rally to Trump Chaos 2) Market stopped going up 3) Fast money longs exited 4) Some slow money stopped buying 5) Fast money established shorts 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912489624959599072)  2025-04-16T12:53Z 13.5K followers, 21.1K engagements


"What is likely to come 6) Slow money longs exited 7) Fast money adds to shorts 8) Slow money gets short 9) We get "Yes that is my final answer" 10) Market needs to react 11) Supply chains react 12) Market reacts to supply chain changes We may be in 2nd or 3rd inning 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912489626276626795)  2025-04-16T12:53Z 13.5K followers, 15.5K engagements


"Reminder about VIX [--] handle When VIX is on a [--] handle implied daily vol is 2-2.5%. That is a nearly impossible scenario for any period of time. Either we jump above [--] and rally try to find something to break or it will be sold. Pick your team wisely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912496412312432827)  2025-04-16T13:20Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why is regime change so much more important than business cycle Permanent drop in potential growth vs Temporary output gap Market correction will take weeks and months not days And we don't even know the extent of the drop in potential growth yet What do we get in return Safety from Chinese military dominance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912524762183602678)  2025-04-16T15:13Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I don't recall hearing Powell's voice so unwavering There is absolutely nothing for them to do Sitting in Bessent's waiting room"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912561538684051780)  2025-04-16T17:39Z 13.5K followers, 14.5K engagements


"Things that have not happened that I think may still be ahead if this goes on long enough 1) 0DTE disappears 2) HFT step away enough from market making to cause a liquidity problem (it is a carry trade after all) 3) Levered ETF funding problem (left hand side on unwinds)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912594229739552907)  2025-04-16T19:49Z 13.5K followers, 10.9K engagements


"Reminder - Never trade against your Macro There is a reason no one ever wrote a book about someone who made money as a countertrend trader during major regime change. This is when the culling of traders occurs - be a survivor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912600788532146633)  2025-04-16T20:15Z 13.5K followers, 21.6K engagements


"The Fed should do absolutely nothing right now The level of uncertainty is extremely high The magnitude of potential outcomes is extremely. high Doing anything that turns out to be pro-cyclical rather than counter-cyclical to the actual outcome would be a huge policy error"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912825560494981177)  2025-04-17T11:08Z 13.5K followers, 24.2K engagements


"Equity market reminder Closed tomorrow Easter Monday is as close to a holiday as they come - always a huge disappointment You buy it today you own it if it breaks for the next [--] days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912826247144415695)  2025-04-17T11:11Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"SPX Charts Bears in complete control Longs completely trapped and acting like deer in the headlights [---] Hour is an easy sale if you get it Hourly 1/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912829850395517110)  2025-04-17T11:25Z 13.5K followers, 11.1K engagements


"For all of those who continue to post [--] year [--] year etc forward returns without regard to max drawdown during the interim The person who collects your garbage gets paid a decent sum of money every other Friday. You should apply for that job so you too can get that paycheck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912912440913809515)  2025-04-17T16:54Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"If people are forced to sell their dollar assets. Many will also need to close out the loans financing many of those assets And with assets underwater and the loan prepayment not marked to market People will need to buy dollars Don't forget that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912916427968753895)  2025-04-17T17:09Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I am not going to get into the weeds on it with the calendar but VIX going into a solid [--] day weekend [--] day if you look back at Easter Monday over the years. At [--]. No bueno"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1912954373203722338)  2025-04-17T19:40Z 13.5K followers, 26.5K engagements


"Market structure reminder Futures may indicate direction rarely magnitude Tomorrow is Easter Monday - many Europeans will be off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1914083597197181296)  2025-04-20T22:27Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"You think that is what the market is saying I think the market is coming around to the realization that there is no such thing as a quick trade deal and certainly not when you start out by kicking every other country in the world in the teeth first and then say let's negotiate. Hopium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1914291146852802591)  2025-04-21T12:12Z 13.5K followers, 10.2K engagements


"One thing you can prepare for When long term players start to panic there will be major correlation break downs on the back of large flows OPPORTUNITY Be prepared size your positions accordingly because they can last longer than you may expect Also make sure to understand 1) Is the move purely flow driven 2) or is the correlation breakdown part of the actual regime (structural) change Example - bond yields and USD Flow yes but likely part of actual change too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1914306259836117212)  2025-04-21T13:12Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Has anyone done a wellness check on the Swiss hedge fund believe it is called SNB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914441549762486321)  2025-04-21T22:10Z 13.5K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Unlike every other drawdown since [----] there is no incentive for our Central Bank to come to the rescue. And to make matters worse we certainly cant rely on any kind of coordinated support from global central bankers unless of course it is used against us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1914498164595315004)  2025-04-22T01:55Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Sports leagues have Trade Deadlines to ensure there are trades not to prevent them from happening after the deadline. If you want trade deals to get done the first thing you need to understand is - when is the real deadline In Trumps case work back from mid terms. Unfortunately China and others have no reason to abide by that timeline - in fact they are likely to use that against him. Dont hold your breath waiting for deals to be completed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1914507526726361536)  2025-04-22T02:32Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@dampedspring Oh come on this is comical This is not going to plan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914823389111349722)  2025-04-22T23:27Z 13.5K followers, 19.7K engagements


"Name one person more uncomfortable right now than the long term longs I will go first Zelenskyy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915081689295937893)  2025-04-23T16:33Z 13.5K followers, 15.1K engagements


"Moving a year end price target for SPX from [----] to [----] is pretty funny - coping at best. Reminder - volatility to date means the past ATH is all but unattainable this year - the market will remain leverage constrained for months. At the same time producers implied volatility has risen. This is before we discuss to what extent eventual tariffs lower potential growth for YEARS to come. Structural shift not tactical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1915366339096477815)  2025-04-24T11:24Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The term is less bearish What is there to be bullish about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915500758046216421)  2025-04-24T20:19Z 13.5K followers, 25.1K engagements


"The important thing going on right now is not the ebbs and flows of the fundamentals including those related to tariffs. The important thing is how credibility is being eroded. Lack of credibility creates uncertainty. The erosion of credibility/increase in uncertainty reduces the maximum potential value of assets. Apply this to both equities and USTs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1915833459861279176)  2025-04-25T18:21Z 13.5K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Im reminded of a line I told all people that worked for me as well as all my children Never put yourself in a position where you have to remember what lies you told Thankful for those who impressed that upon me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1915916399559545260)  2025-04-25T23:50Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"People seem to be in complete denial over what is (not) coming to stores near us soon. It will be a cliff edge and we are not talking about luxury goods these are staples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1916474338003321182)  2025-04-27T12:47Z 13.5K followers, 73.5K engagements


"If the average trade deal takes between [--] months and [--] years why do we need to have an update on how things are going every single day if not multiple times a day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917201701364285879)  2025-04-29T12:58Z 13.5K followers, 48.4K engagements


"Probably nothing The latter chart is very big insider's market - pay attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1918294276846334345)  2025-05-02T13:19Z 13.5K followers, 23.5K engagements


"Interesting that this rally looks sharper than the one during the early stages of COVID. Did The Fed roll out some program to buy credit and I missed it A stealth round of Not QE QE to bail out The Basis Boiz It must be how nicely the world is working together to fight The Tariff Virus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1918392535308808542)  2025-05-02T19:49Z 13.5K followers, 19.5K engagements


"The correct thought process is to assume the pain of tariffs is coming. The counterfactual is what you want to look for to reject the hypothesis. How many weeks or months out without any real sign in the economic data forces you disprove the hypothesis of a cliff edge from tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1919397805270950377)  2025-05-05T14:24Z 13.5K followers, 23.5K engagements


"Wow "Take away the credit risk of US Treasuries" Implying there is a credit risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919416102020403358)  2025-05-05T15:37Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why might equities be moving lower 1) Fed just told you they recognize risk (volatility of potential outcomes) has increased 2) Fed just told you they will not prevent the negative effects related to tariffs even if they will eventually ride to the rescue 3) Chance Trump rips Fed again have certainly increased"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1920181306794664104)  2025-05-07T18:17Z 13.5K followers, 20.9K engagements


"I would advise that people mute this account. Willing to spread incorrect information to develop its intelligence. Thank you to those who pointed out that it is a LLM. Agree that it is well disclosed in its profile but still spreading incorrect info in posts that do not make it clear that it is a work in progress. @DerivativesDon Youre absolutely right that both repos and swap lines deliver dollar liquidity but the difference lies in the structure the visibility and the friction involved. Think of it like this: imagine a country like the ECB has Treasuries on its books. In theory it could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1925023873046593712)  2025-05-21T03:00Z 13.5K followers, 27.5K engagements


"@TheFlowHorse This has happened a lot over our careers. Sense and sensibility Magnitude of gains and losses I bet the bearish person knows why they are losing to a greater degree than the person making money understands why they are winning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1925332189287244028)  2025-05-21T23:25Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Declaring that growth will outpace inflation at this point is the gambler going into the casino just one last time because they are going to win it all back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1925735826270421264)  2025-05-23T02:09Z 13.5K followers, 18.6K engagements


"Govt spending including interest That money IS NOT on the sidelines it is in the game. What are money market funds TBill buyers What happens with TBills in the hands of money market funds They get lent and then used as collateral to Drum roll please. Buy stocks on leverage The moar money Congress spends the moar TBills Bessent will issue the moar money that will go into TBills the moar leverage that will be provided to the stock market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927427636294283455)  2025-05-27T18:12Z 13.5K followers, 27.2K engagements


"If moar 30yr bonds is the cure for high long end yields and severely negative swap spreads (and it is) What does less long issuance from Japan bring Moar TBills (or Japanese funding bills) Moar TBills means moar leverage in the system If moar leverage leads to higher asset prices it also means moar inflation Moar inflation means less 30yr bond issuance means.higher yields MMT is great until you cross a line. The line has been crossed. You can deny it but that wont change it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1927440465239871995)  2025-05-27T19:03Z 13.5K followers, 13K engagements


"Virtuous Cycle If equities only drop by 50bps then vol should get cracked If vol gets cracked equities should go up What has happened The oxygen in the casino just got turned up a bit the free drinks come out as doubles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936922909739557191)  2025-06-22T23:03Z 13.5K followers, 17.6K engagements


"the absence of a recession is setting the stage for the greatest collapse in history Flows dont create or destroy value. But they can stand in the way of market prices being able to find fair long term value. Too much (401k) money chasing too few goods And every day that the new flow outpaces the growth in the real underlying value the bigger the eventual accident when the job losses (recession) actually arrives. All else equal current excess spot price returns result in lower future real returns (think unchanged dividends divided by inflated spot price) were just going to keep melting up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1940476489692299681)  2025-07-02T18:23Z 13.5K followers, 21.2K engagements


"People need to be more discerning about how policy works especially given the size of the public debt. Main source of easy policy is residual QE and ATI. In other words FCI. With so much public debt (and relatively low private credit) Fed Funds likely has relatively perverse effect on asset prices. Higher Fed Funds means higher IORB and TBill flows - which on the margin contribute to at the very least a higher allocation to risk assets. During April selloff I suggested Powell is wrong for not cutting rates. In retrospect Powell was and is right. If crypto and tech can make daily ATH (with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945856100273639684)  2025-07-17T14:40Z 13.5K followers, 39.2K engagements


"The largest mistake wont come from being right or wrong about eventual inflation. The largest mistake will be from drawing conclusions before the entire tariff cycle plays out. 1) What are the tariffs 2) Who effectively pays them (exporter/importer/consumer) 3) If producer what does that mean for job losses 4) If consumers what does that mean for increased wage demands [--] will lead to rate cuts [--] will lead to rate hikes if wage demands are met [--] will likely lead to rate cuts if wage demands are not met Fed needs to assess 1) Is producer eating them and are they laying off employees 2) if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956034742484160589)  2025-08-14T16:46Z 13.5K followers, 23.7K engagements


"@Dr_Gingerballs Buying an existing house involves 1) Paying for the house 2) Paying the current owner for their deep in the money mortgage option"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1957789080487440874)  2025-08-19T12:57Z 13.5K followers, 21.1K engagements


"When a headline isnt a headline US BANKRUPTCIES SURGE PAST [----] PANDEMIC LEVELS: BUSINESS INSIDER US BANKRUPTCIES SURGE PAST [----] PANDEMIC LEVELS: BUSINESS INSIDER"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957822159453061509)  2025-08-19T15:09Z 13.5K followers, 26.6K engagements


"Has there ever been a company in the history of time that created value purely through financial engineering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960091371332665390)  2025-08-25T21:26Z 13.5K followers, 17.8K engagements


"It happens slowly at first Then all at once Wait for it market was concerned for a brief [--] seconds market was concerned for a brief [--] seconds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1960133917807456317)  2025-08-26T00:15Z 13.5K followers, 13.7K engagements


"I assure you of one thing If any G7 defaults on their sovereign debt the last thing you will want to own is crypto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963024458836484141)  2025-09-02T23:41Z 13.5K followers, 174.8K engagements


"Never gets old"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1963377365150482918)  2025-09-03T23:03Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Please I know many of your children have just started back to school. But for the rest of us this is no time to think. SPX Hourly Until we move a solid 1-2% below the green line short just simply isnt a wise decision/position. You think it is stretched you want to play some Bollinger Band concept - no more than flat. And even then has not lasted for more than a few hours for almost [--] months now. It doesnt have to make sense - it can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. It isnt about value - value comes and goes quickly it does not creep in slowly (like this move)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967676058829983946)  2025-09-15T19:45Z 13.5K followers, 24.2K engagements


"Hmmmmm swap spreads as wide as they have been Any clue Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since [----]. https://t.co/hCywFuDltc Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since [----]. https://t.co/hCywFuDltc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968118582166032813)  2025-09-17T01:03Z 13.5K followers, 27.7K engagements


"Government shutdown will be by design Not a flaw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973004723008700563)  2025-09-30T12:39Z 13.5K followers, 13.8K engagements


"@Aureliusltd28 So basically it approaches its intrinsic value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1977202090989797885)  2025-10-12T02:38Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"You are confusing liquidity with duration. The printing would come about when a permanent dollar with long duration is spent into the system but the duration of the liability used to fund it is overnight (IORB). How can something with a penalty rate relative to the policy rate be construed as an easing beyond the policy rate When the SRF is tapped the private sector retains the duration risk they simply gain balance sheet/liquidity to take that duration risk. The main aspect of QE is that The Fed steps in to buy the duration so the private sector does not have to. This is not the case with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985330228521058387)  2025-11-03T12:56Z 13.5K followers, 38.4K engagements


"QE = Quantitative AND Easing Quantitative = Amount Easing = Duration Buying Bills increases the size (amount) of The Feds balance sheet It IS NOT an easing because duration of the new reserves is for all intents and purposes = duration of the Bills that The Fed buys. If I told you I would lend you money today but you need to pay me back tomorrow or you will be liquidated would you use that money to buy stocks https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985426417979363560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985426417979363560"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985426417979363560)  2025-11-03T19:18Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@BillyTheKid_59 @0xMerridew Why just a backstop Why not some upfront spending money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DerivativesDon/status/1986167587990864220)  2025-11-05T20:23Z 13.5K followers, 46.9K engagements


"Old bond guy advice here on crypto and charts Just as bond trading has migrated more and more towards ETFs so too has liquidity and as a result more reliable charts moved towards equity trading hours. Lean on an ETF charts rather than [--] hour cash charts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1990466560729940467)  2025-11-17T17:06Z 13.5K followers, 21.9K engagements

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