#  @Dav1dDuong David Duong David Duong posts on X about bitcoin, crypto, coinbase, has been the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::61699615/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -72% - [--] Month [------] +81% - [--] Months [-------] +64% - [--] Year [-------] +800% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::61699615/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +23% - [--] Month [--] +189% - [--] Months [---] +23% - [--] Year [---] +331% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::61699615/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.24% - [--] Month [-----] +4% - [--] Months [-----] +59% - [--] Year [-----] +135% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::61699615/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [countries](/list/countries) [events](/list/events) [nfts](/list/nfts) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) **Social topic influence** [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [crypto](/topic/crypto), [coinbase](/topic/coinbase), [has been](/topic/has-been), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [fed](/topic/fed), [money](/topic/money), [market](/topic/market), [fomc](/topic/fomc) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@coinbaseinsto](/creator/undefined) [@scottmelker](/creator/undefined) [@realvision](/creator/undefined) [@apomplianos](/creator/undefined) [@coinbase](/creator/undefined) [@dav1dduong](/creator/undefined) [@merlinegalite](/creator/undefined) [@ashbennington](/creator/undefined) [@osfrekt](/creator/undefined) [@rektbrands](/creator/undefined) [@emilygraffeo](/creator/undefined) [@drmodentist](/creator/undefined) [@apruden08](/creator/undefined) [@kaejhee](/creator/undefined) [@mdudas](/creator/undefined) [@glassnode](/creator/undefined) [@apompliano](/creator/undefined) [@cindyleowtt](/creator/undefined) [@driftprotocol](/creator/undefined) [@oroogle](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/solana) [USDC (USDC)](/topic/usdc) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)](/topic/$mara) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "BTC returns remain uncorrelated with US equity returns but the coefficient has been rising since mid-September from [----] to [----] based on a 60-day rolling window. We think market anticipation over spot bitcoin ETFs in 4Q23 is currently putting a floor on BTC prices for now " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1710719361705455676) 2023-10-07T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(1/7) When might the market expect to see one or more spot bitcoin ETFs See 🧵👇 (and read our Monthly Outlook )" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1712665700324561268) 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(2/7) The timing of the SECs spot bitcoin ETF decisions has been complicated by gridlock in the US House of Representatives over federal funding which could trigger a government shutdown on November [--] potentially leading up to 90% of SEC staff to be furloughed" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1712665701436023232) 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(3/7) Already the SEC has deferred its decision on multiple spot bitcoin ETF filings with a couple now having a second deadline of January [--] [----] and the majority having a third deadline of January [--] 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1712665702635651102) 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(4/7) However I believe its important that the ARK-21Shares Bitcoin ETF application has a final deadline for SEC review of January [--] 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1712665703830946249) 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(2/6) With the validator entry at peak capacity for the last several months staking yields have dropped an average of 0.1% per week from over 5% to its current level of 3.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1713029487892308216) 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(3/6) The yield on staked ETH provides a floor for the crypto ecosystem in our view providing a benchmark for alternative crypto investments. ETHs 3.5% staking yield sounds pretty low Especially compared to an opportunity cost of over 5% nominal on US Treasury bills" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1713029488919892441) 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(4/6) But youre really not earning 5% on those T-bills either --the real yield you earn (that is the rate minus inflation) is actually 3.1% ex-ante (using 2y inflation expectations of around 2%) or 1.3% ex-post (using current CPI data)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1713029490002006042) 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(5/6) Compared to that the real ETH staking yield is 3.2% (that is subtracting 30d annualized supply growth of 0.32%) not adjusted for translation gains or losses" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1713029491201622288) 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(1/6) How much of the decline in crypto trading volumes is related to the withdrawal of global central bank liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1715360686002356274) 2023-10-20T13:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(2/6) The steep pace of global central bank liquidity withdrawals over the last six months has proven to be a material constraint on trading activity across all asset classes and crypto has been no exception" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1715360687357112524) 2023-10-20T13:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ BTC moved more than [--] std dev higher in the last week (relative to the last 3m) compared to a [---] to [--] std dev move lower for US stocks. That massive divergence partly reflects a deteriorating macro trading environment juxtaposed against a positive idiosyncratic story for BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1717982339110715658) 2023-10-27T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2/ A big part of that comes down to market participants speculating on the extent to which spot bitcoin ETF approvals have (or more accurately have not) been fully priced in" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1717982340503228585) 2023-10-27T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Tokenization- after failing to live up to its initial promise of putting trillions of USD in RWA onchain a lot of skeptics think tokenization is still more hype than reality . while this criticism has some merit we think this crypto cycle is actually different 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1719710695921439092) 2023-11-01T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Example: the global rate environment. Between 2017-18 the Fed gradually hiked rates by 175bps to 2.25-2.50% and kept its balance sheet stable-ish. Comparatively the Fed has hiked rates by 525bps to 5.25-5.50% in the current cycle and reduced its balance sheet by over $1T" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1719710697922171124) 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Why it matters - From the consumer perspective higher bond yields have contributed to a surge in yield-seeking behavior. That demand has been funneled into more protocols seeking to tap into the market for tokenized US Treasuries in a way that wasnt present in 2017" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1719710699956428860) 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ The majority of traditional securities transactions currently settle T+2 during which time funds are locked up and underutilized. For markets that can transact anywhere from hundreds of billions to over a trillion USD per day that gets expensive fast" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1719710703936761864) 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "6/ Thus we think the business use case for tokenization has pivoted away from putting illiquid tangible RWA onchain and towards capital market instruments like US Treasuries bank deposits money market funds and repos" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1719710705752977501) 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KaeJhee @mdudas @coinbase Link:" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1720508044595855729) 2023-11-03T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Coinbase + @Glassnode teamed up to create the Guide to Crypto Markets a look at the most important onchain analytics and advanced trading metrics in crypto. Check it out 👉 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1744743853385531600) 2024-01-09T15:32Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements "Monthly Outlook: Post-ETF Trading Themes: While US spot bitcoin ETFs are important we think institutional investors may be missing out on other opportunities and themes that could be relevant in the post spot bitcoin ETF environment. 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1755612067435057522) 2024-02-08T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ We believe a search for yield will rejuvenate interest in DeFi in [----]. Not only has (1) the cash and carry trade between BTC CME futures vs spot become less lucrative given the access to ETFs but (2) many G10 central banks will soon begin cutting interest rates in earnest" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1755612069456650712) 2024-02-08T15:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1 Activity on CME bitcoin and ether futures has picked up sharply in recent weeks alongside the rise in net inflows into spot BTC ETFs suggesting institutional interest in this space is growing. The trend reveals how ETH has started to catch up to BTC performance as of late" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1761049800634401015) 2024-02-23T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2 Ethena has been getting a lot of attention this week for its interest-bearing synthetic dollar USDe that launched mainnet on February [--]. The concept behind Ethena is that it tokenizes the cash and carry trade between spot and perps. We discuss the mechanics and risks" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1761049801704063140) 2024-02-23T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Amazing. The SEC only approved the 19b-4 filings so still need to wait for the S-1s (meaning no ETH ETFs on exchanges yet). But looks like they approved this on the basis of CME futures-vs-spot correlations as well https://www.sec.gov/files/tm/lk87adfs99.pdf https://www.sec.gov/files/tm/lk87adfs99.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1793763681257619549) 2024-05-23T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "7/ Table [--] displays the calculated h-index for several top EVM based chains over the week ended June [--] [----]. We also leverage Dunes decoded contract database to discover how many unique smart contracts received transactions in the past week on each network" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1805609320526365008) 2024-06-25T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "8/ For more read our report at Coinbase Research https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-06-07 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-06-07" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1805609322409312518) 2024-06-25T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Markets Call is live In this episode we have a special guest Jack Platts co-founder of Hypersphere joining us to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market. Watch the video or listen to the podcast on Spotify Apple or Audible. https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/market-calls/coinbase-institutional-weekly-market-call-july-30-2024 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/market-calls/coinbase-institutional-weekly-market-call-july-30-2024" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1818400217206595600) 2024-07-30T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Morgan Stanley's [-----] financial advisors manage nearly $4T of assets and starting next week they'll be able to recommend US spot bitcoin ETFs to certain clients. Let's gooooooooo 🔥 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1819762376276664583) 2024-08-03T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Coinbase's latest Monthly Outlook. This chart on the linear relationship between stocks and bitcoin. Correlations have been clustered inside values of [--] and [----] over the last 9-10 months which we would consider weak and expect to continue over at least the medium term" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1824152624280805422) 2024-08-15T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Short yen carry trades x crypto. A second polynomial equation suggests JPY borrowing can explain around 50% of the variation in total open interest in CME bitcoin futures" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1824486551201755463) 2024-08-16T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Both ETH and SOL currently have a beta of around [----] and [----] respectively (compared to an average [----] and [----] in 1H24) measured over a 90-day window of daily price changes relative to the Coinbase Broad Index (market cap weighted index that captures [--] tokens worth $1.7T)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1825593867829235914) 2024-08-19T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#wolfofwallstreet with @scottmelker - Always one of my favorite podcasts to be on. Why is ETH underperforming BTC Why is BTC underperforming stocks Why are stocks losing money Heres my latest views on crypto markets. https://www.youtube.com/live/CAIhKx9fqpU https://www.youtube.com/live/CAIhKx9fqpU" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1831335599816556802) 2024-09-04T14:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great being at Token2049 to talk about everything from the Fed and BTC staking to tokenization and chain abstraction" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1838042721946411252) 2024-09-23T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "AI fear: OpenAI will become Skynet and enslave all humanity. AI reality: AI models' integration with ad buys will suck up all of our discretionary income as we end up buying things we never would otherwise" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1838354809109287157) 2024-09-23T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Takeaways from Token2049: Because I'm terrible at fitting anything into [---] characters he's my long form take on Token2049 TLDR - Investor sentiment seems fairly benign key themes include emerging alt L1s Bitcoin L2s (re)staking DePIN RWA AA and UX https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-09-27 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-09-27" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1840419973124005894) 2024-09-29T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The move lower in crypto markets this week resulted in $700M in long perp liquidations the highest weekly level since early August. We think the market is now directionally more balanced as investors digest the large # of potential macro catalysts. See our weekly for more deets" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1842206571733950844) 2024-10-04T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also covered: Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments this week FTX distributions timeline $1.6B in token unlocks this week lower liquidity because of Golden Week in Asia / holidays in US China stimulus and APAC capital rotation" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1842206573520715911) 2024-10-04T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also just had some really great conversations in Singapore" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1843283617164013977) 2024-10-07T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tackling crypto markets HBO's Satoshi reveal and the next set of catalysts on The Wolf of All Streets with @scottmelker https://www.youtube.com/live/MYHISURijM4 https://www.youtube.com/live/MYHISURijM4" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1844009922058670564) 2024-10-09T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly - Uptober's Obstacles. This week we cover the upcoming China fiscal briefing (in 1h) Mt Gox delays US crypto regulation Unichain on testnet Ethereum EIP-7782 and [----]. https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-10-11 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-10-11" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1844909720303436016) 2024-10-12T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "West Coast Vibes. A significant portion of Solana's high value transactions could be US-based based on the timing of txn fee patterns potentially with a large user base skewed towards the West Coast" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1847300943492063676) 2024-10-18T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Base surpassed Arbitrum to become the largest L2 by total value locked (TVL) at $2.4B largely driven by the success of Aerodrome a decentralized exchange (DEX) on Base. Iykyk" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1848347250008686635) 2024-10-21T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly Coinbase Markets Podcast. This week we discuss: 🔹 AI's first crypto token (GOAT) 🔹 Stripe's acquisition of Bridge 🔹 Fed Governor Chris Waller talks DeFi 🔹 Polymarket and the home stretch for the US election 🔹 Macro and flows https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fiErMyjihFYkgxRsddWpAsi=8rAqRG3zRwKCAcJTenCrPw https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fiErMyjihFYkgxRsddWpAsi=8rAqRG3zRwKCAcJTenCrPw" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1849140503708668412) 2024-10-23T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Another great event @APompliano - Speaking on the panel gave me a lot to think about re: 🔹the growing BTC ecosystem 🔹L1 design and differentiation 🔹crypto x the outcome of US elections 🔹 influence of ETF options and 🔹effect of information asymmetry in crypto markets" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1850327005704913339) 2024-10-27T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Meme splicing. Incredible amounts of value are captured through Solanas token issuance and trading processes making Solana trading the third most profitable onchain sector in crypto behind stablecoins and layer-1 (L1) network fees" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1855998968280342534) 2024-11-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Chart [--] depicts the correlation of Ethereum and Solana DEX volumes against Coinbase exchange volumes revealing Solanas DEX volumes began to meaningfully deviate from the exchange in July even as Ethereum DEX correlations have tracked upwards" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1855998969932808560) 2024-11-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Don't miss our latest Coinbase Institutional Markets podcast where we interview @cindyleowtt from @DriftProtocol on perps prediction markets and portfolios https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/podcasts https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/podcasts" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1864379732579463527) 2024-12-04T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CoinbaseInsto this is a great milestone to highlight but I think it needs a little context to fully appreciate The Coinbase [--] Index reached a new high of [---]. Track the performance of the cryptoeconomy here https://t.co/93fSLDcsW3 https://t.co/Qy6AJmijls The Coinbase [--] Index reached a new high of [---]. Track the performance of the cryptoeconomy here https://t.co/93fSLDcsW3 https://t.co/Qy6AJmijls" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1864806805915779574) 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ What is the COIN50 It tracks the performance of [--] digital assets and helps give a snapshot of how the broader crypto market is performing. (It's like looking at the S&P500 to know how US stocks are doing. You wouldn't just look at AAPL right)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1864806807362789487) 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ The [---] point milestone represents a significant moment in crypto's growth cycle -- in short we're up 5x in under [--] years. THIS is how to measure market sentiment. Massive" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1864806809925497243) 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4/ We're not the first crypto index but we're the first to truly cover all the main sectors in the space. That means COIN50 gives us key insights into the true market health of crypto. 🌡" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1864806811280220296) 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Today stablecoins 1% of US M2 money supply . with M2 at $21T 10% would still only be $2.1T" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1869096528310305010) 2024-12-17T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "*** Crypto Market Outlook [----] *** Our [----] Crypto Market Outlook is now live The annual Outlook provides investors with deep dives that span the crypto universe from altcoins to ETFs staking to gaming and much more. The key areas were focused on include: 🔹The [----] macro landscape where we discuss the shift in the US regulatory environment expectations on US fiscal and monetary policy crypto ETFs [---] stablecoins x payments tokenization and the DeFi resurgence 🔹How crypto is disrupting technological innovation with decentralized prediction markets AI agents with crypto wallets gaming DePIN" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1869374557616046317) 2024-12-18T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Should today's NFP and UE numbers really push the "good news is bad news" regime Yes 256k is a massive blow out compared to the 165k survey forecast but the Fed's not swapping from cuts to hikes any time soon. For now monetary policy is still stimulative and the economy is expanding at close to 3% " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1877734247915561317) 2025-01-10T15:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "At Coinbase Research we start every year by taking a look back and holding ourselves accountable for the predictions we made in the previous year's outlook. Our institutional clients know that as an exchange we don't make price predictions but we make forecasts on market trends trading risks and other critical developments for the crypto industry. Here's the list. (Full report + 1Q25 outlook here: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-01-10" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1877792452557627751) 2025-01-10T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks to @RealVision -- their latest FULL episode just dropped where we discuss Coinbase's predictions on crypto market trends in [----] Stablecoins AI agents DePIN ETFs DeFi gaming cats and dogs living together mass hysteria. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1879587848053227522) 2025-01-15T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks to @RealVision -- their latest FULL episode just dropped where we discuss Coinbase's predictions on crypto market trends in [----] Stablecoins AI agents DePIN ETFs DeFi gaming dogs and cats living together mass hysteria. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1879590187849933230) 2025-01-15T18:03Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements "Crypto markets are primarily being driven by macro factors ahead of inauguration day as the Feds data-dependent stance makes it challenging to pinpoint the path for monetary policy this year. Indeed market conditions appear somewhat volatile from a macro perspective pushing the 65-day rolling correlation between the COIN50 index and the S&P [---] above 40% up from Decembers average of 35%. For now absent other drivers we think positioning and technicals will likely dictate performance though we expect a heavy emphasis on fiscal issues and government policy after the inauguration. The fact that" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1880354584998105493) 2025-01-17T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "📘Executive orders and SEC actions. While macro markets have been somewhat quiet this week as many world leaders congregated in Davos for WEF crypto markets have been extremely active. That has involved parsing through the economic implications of Trumps early executive orders as well as the impacts of the Trump-linked memecoins launched last weekend. Details of the first crypto-related executive order: 🔹create a crypto working group led by David Sacks which is tasked with developing a federal regulatory framework for crypto and evaluating the creation of a national digital asset stockpile" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1882788867939455020) 2025-01-24T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "DEX volumes have gone up massively since inauguration now around 20.5% of CEX volumes . here's the chart by chain with Solana (no surprise given the $TRUMP launch) taking the lead" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1882832641504022841) 2025-01-24T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@oroogle To be clear that quote was from @davidgokhshtein" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1888946125735923807) 2025-02-10T13:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Macro events to watch: 🔹US governments funding resolution to avoid a shutdown (deadline: Saturday March [--] at 12:01am ET) - sounds like Democrats will vote for GOP bill 🔹Feds upcoming FOMC meeting (March 18-19) - what matters is how Fed Chair Powell addresses trade policy fiscal policy changes and most of all its quantitative tightening (QT) program. We think theres a good chance of a pause or stop in QT as bank reserve levels are approaching the 10-11% of GDP threshold. 🔹1Q25 earnings reports in April - what does consumer demand truly look like Read our full weekly report for more details" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1900533880408494325) 2025-03-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What's really happening in markets If we look at the total assets of the Fed's balance sheet excluding reverse repos and the US TGA balance this proxy of market liquidity fell by over $500B from $6.2T in early June [----] to nearly $5.7T by the start of [----]. We think the recent crypto sell off has largely reflected a convergence of prices back to that lower liquidity trend after a months-long period of outperformance. The good news The drawdown in the TGA balance over the last two months from $745B (end-2024) to $500B has mechanically raised liquidity levels back above $6T. Plus we think the" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1901649736962383948) 2025-03-17T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto performance by sector year-to-date: 🔹COIN50 index is down 25.5% 🔹Store of value (e.g. BTC) down 14.2% 🔹Media & entertainment down 52.3% 🔹DeFi memecoins and infrastructure sectors all down around 45% Market turbulence impact has been consistent across sectors like DeFi memecoins and infrastructure with relatively similar severity in declines except for media & entertainment. This highlights market-wide risk aversion that doesn't appear to consider individual project fundamentals and revenues" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1901697475888414884) 2025-03-17T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Our latest [----] Institutional Investor Digital Assets Survey (published jointly with our partners EY-Parthenon) is out now. Some key stats: 🔹85% of respondents increased allocations to crypto and digital assets-related products in [----] and a similar portion plan to continue doing so in [----]. 🔹59% plan to allocate more than 5% of their AUM to crypto this year while 33% plan to allocate 1-5% of their AUM. 🔹73% of surveyed investors currently hold one or more tokens besides BTC and ETH. 🔹The percentage of respondents that engage with DeFi is set to triple in the next two years from 24% to 75%" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1902187841670533448) 2025-03-19T02:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Fed day (2pm ET) after disappointing retail sales below forecast inflation and below forecast NFP. What to expect: 🔹No cut today (4.25%-4.50%) - if you're confused about the current macro environment think about how they feel. But Fed put 🔹Dot plot and economic projections - it's not just about whether they expect more cuts this year but why 🔹Balance sheet - will they pause slow stop or keep their QT program unchanged Language here is hugely important" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1902368155978125479) 2025-03-19T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Feds new dot plot suggests 50bps of cuts in [----] (no change) and another 50bps in [----] ( in consensus) = slightly hawkish despite change in dispersion of votes + a slowdown in the balance sheet runoff (good for liquidity) with the statement suggesting uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Lets see what Powell says at the press conference at 2pm ET" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1902423273750638673) 2025-03-19T18:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Feds new dot plot suggests 50bps of cuts in [----] (no change) and another 50bps in [----] ( in consensus) = neutral to slightly hawkish despite change in dispersion of votes + a slowdown in the balance sheet runoff (good for liquidity) with the statement suggesting uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Lets see what Powell says at the press conference at 2pm ET" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1902424410008469587) 2025-03-19T18:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "📘Weekly: Rules of Origin. The magnitude of these tariffs exceeded our expectations going into the event leaving the landscape no clearer for making investment decisions particularly as other countries assess potential countermeasures. A case in point is Canadas recent announcement for tariffs on US autos. The concern is that discrepancies over tariff definitions could lead to previously unanticipated escalations making a quick resolution relatively unlikely. Interestingly the event triggered a [---] standard deviation down move in US equities (S&P 500) relative to its 65-business day average" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1908150986280947892) 2025-04-04T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This Thursday join us for a webinar on AI and Crypto with Grayscale's @LowBeta_ and @willhamilogden Register here: https://beyondthebuzzcryptoandai.splashthat.com/ https://beyondthebuzzcryptoandai.splashthat.com/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1914369780984799448) 2025-04-21T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting to see bitcoin performance against traditional "safe-haven" currencies like the Swiss franc" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1917223871498891756) 2025-04-29T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "*** Weekly: Ticket to Ride *** Here's what we've been tracking this week: 🔹Feels like the headline about the Fed FDIC and OCC withdrawing statements on bank-related crypto activity has been underappreciated. 🔹But now we're seeing financial institutions including Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley separately announcing plans to offer crypto trading to their respective clients within the next [--] months. 🔹Juxtapose this with the recent clash between the ECB and European Commission over whether the EU's MiCA rules can withstand US efforts to dominate the global crypto market. 🔹Looking ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1918312070111482348) 2025-05-02T14:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin: Institutional Product Guide [----] 📘 Introducing the @CoinbaseInsto product guide to bitcoin markets for ***institutional investors*** Institutional players can now gain exposure to BTC in multiple ways including 🔹 spot 🔹 fixed-term futures 🔹 perpetual futures 🔹 options 🔹 ETFs and 🔹 equity proxies In this report we analyze these vehicles' efficiency size costs tradeoffs and other market dynamics. Download the full report here: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/resources/guides/bitcoin-guide-2025-products" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1919748207610827215) 2025-05-06T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Monthly Outlook: Dethroning the Dollar. This month our focus is on bitcoin's long-term market capitalization growth. Our thesis is that in light of the massive portfolio rebalancing in USD holdings currently underway as well as the upcoming reclassification of gold from a Tier [--] to a Tier [--] asset we think crypto could directly benefit from countries diversifying their FX reserves into bitcoin. We estimate that if bitcoin is able to replace just 10% of those reserves that's adding $1.2T to the total bitcoin market cap competing with the $3.6T in international gold reserves today. See full" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1922700617044099119) 2025-05-14T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "*** What really happened with the GENIUS Act *** This week Senator Thune filed for a cloture vote on the GENIUS Act (stablecoin bill) for Monday May [--] which (depending on the outcome) could set up full passage of the bill very soon. But what happened on May [--] Media coverage of the US Senates debate over the stablecoin bill has been somewhat misleading. Its true that on May [--] the Senate did not agree to move forward on the GENIUS Act in a cloture vote i.e. a vote to end debate on a bill or issue and proceed to a final vote. However the reality is that Democrats initially supported the bill in" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1923815788730822818) 2025-05-17T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I get that The Economist's "independent journalism" doesn't necessarily mean that it's "objective" but they *should* at least have a basic understanding about the logical fallacies of causation vs correlation. I mostly take issue with their repeated claim that "crypto was at the centre of the crisis that shook American banks in 2023" which they've been saying for two years. Given all the FOIA data that's come out since that time it amazes me that the authors refuse to either educate themselves on or acknowledge what actually happened. The Economist presents the crisis as a straightforward run" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1924102422856618275) 2025-05-18T13:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Here's the full letter I sent The Economist in case anyone cares to read it: The Economist recently suggested that the collapse of Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank in early [----] was linked to crypto markets broken by a tumble in cryptocurrency prices that began in late [----]. That is a gross mischaracterization of what actually happened. While its true that banks like Silvergate Signature and Silicon Valley Bank were crypto-friendly banks it was ultimately the duration mismatch of the assets and liabilities on these banks balance sheets (alongside insufficient risk controls) that contributed" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1924103529381159294) 2025-05-18T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Technical picture for the COIN50 index looks bullish with 50d MA crossing the 100d. The last quarterly index review was just completed (May 26) and will be implemented on May [--] -- adding AKT TIA and dropping WIF ZEC https://www.marketvector.com/reviews/download/COIN50 https://www.marketvector.com/reviews/download/COIN50" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1927438128530223594) 2025-05-27T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The latest 13F filings for US spot BTC ETFs (1Q25) indicate institutional ownership slipped from 29% to 25% of all shares largely due to a decline in hedge fund participation in the basis trade. Investment advisors grew their share from 10.8% to 12.4% over the quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1927807947230372305) 2025-05-28T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto-Friendly Regime Shift. The Trump administration has removed some existing obstacles that discouraged innovation mainstream adoption and growth addressing investment risks that may support investors joining or remaining in crypto markets" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1928543687916560416) 2025-05-30T20:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Regulatory Clarity is Unlocking Institutions. Multiple pending crypto bills and a new crypto-friendly White House could help catalyze creditor behavior among institutional players (Credit Class 5) which are expected to receive a sizable investible sum" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1928543689556590940) 2025-05-30T20:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "🔹The policy panel addressed cryptos growing political influence with the emergence of the crypto voter who has become a significant and unprecedented force in US politics with both parties recognizing the potential to engage new demographicsespecially younger and previously less-engaged voters" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1933606323486064841) 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "🔹A conversation with hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont founder of Coatue Management highlighted the decreasing costs and barriers to entry for the crypto market framing its market cap against the vast $400-500T global net worth" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1933606324710920316) 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "🔹Acting CFTC Chairperson Caroline Pham advocated for more flexible execution methods in derivatives markets and also emphasized that while perpetual futures are a growing part of the market the regulatory framework for these derivatives is already well-established and does not require reinventing the wheel just because this is a new asset class" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1933606326241993204) 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Coinbase announcements: 🔹Shopify plans to offer USDC payments to all platform users via Base later this year 🔹Coinbase Business: a platform offering crypto services tailored for businesses including tools for accepting crypto payments. 🔹The Coinbase One Card coming this fall will earn 4% bitcoin rewards on every purchase" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1933606327911370932) 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Such a development would challenge the prevailing narrative of a front-loaded fiscal expansion and could lead to a reassessment of risk assets well before the longer-term fiscal risks fully materialize especially if economic data or Fed policy disappoints the markets growth expectations. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1934606618332746178) 2025-06-16T13:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "On the other hand we think this situation could improve the prospects for store-of-value assets like gold and bitcoin over altcoins as BTC continues to benefit from the decline in the US dollars dominance. 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1934606619662311482) 2025-06-16T13:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Tron Inc is not an IPO. For anyone that didn't have Tron going public on their bingo card you may be in luck - technically it still hasn't. Tron Inc will be less a blockchain IPO and more a publicly-traded crypto vehicle that will hold 1% of the total TRX market cap. In other words it's closer to how MSTR and other PTCVs issue stocks and bonds to buy BTC ETH and SOL etc than it is an IPO in the traditional sense" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1935386773552775401) 2025-06-18T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Following this week's FOMC meeting where Fed staff cut the [----] GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% YoY and raised core inflation projections from 2.8% to 3.1% (i.e. a stagflation scenario) we wanted to reiterate our economic views https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-06-20 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-06-20" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1936451128532594811) 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Growth: We think US activity will outperform current subdued expectations likely avoiding a recession in [----]. But even if one materializes we think that it would be an economic slowdown or mild recession at worst" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1936451130080235980) 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/ Inflation: We think trade-related inflation fears are overblown. Over the long run tariffs tend to be disinflationary due to the effect on aggregate demand while secular trends like AI are more meaningful for the path of prices and productivity in our view" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1936451131850330421) 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Money supply: Despite Fed QT US M2 money supply is expanding due to increased bank lending & deposits indicating a rising money multiplier. We foresee healthy liquidity for 1-2 quarters especially with higher odds of market-friendly fiscal policy shifts" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1936451133406400623) 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto adoption is on the rise in Canada and poised for institutional growth. I joined Coinbase Head of Allocators and Tokenization @smartestbeta and Country Director of Coinbase Canada @lucmatheson for a discussion on the state of crypto adoption in Canada and digital assets [---]. Key topics we covered:" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1937624000039125154) 2025-06-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "How Canadian asset managers are evaluating crypto for portfolio diversification and long-term value. Key Canadian crypto milestones including institutional adoption and regulatory firsts such as spot ETF approvals. Canadas evolving regulatory landscape and how recent federal and provincial elections could influence policy direction and institutional adoption" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1937624003172274611) 2025-06-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Stablecoins are going mainstream. Tonight I met up with some former tradFi co-workers covering financial stocks and their clients are all wondering if payment giants like MasterCard Visa and PayPal have strategies to integrate stablecoins" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1938047555381657625) 2025-06-26T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The ceasefire between Israel and Iran since June [--] has helped stabilize markets allowing the COIN50 index to recover alongside US stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1938691469994295698) 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Indeed the [--] delta put-call skew for 30-day bitcoin options has started to decline after spiking last week while the skew for 90-day and 180-day contracts is in negative territory" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1938691473236729898) 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ This suggests the short-term demand for downside protection in bitcoin puts has eased while we think the longer-term options show investors want BTC exposure but dont want to pay the upfront costs in the spot market reflecting the slight call bias in OTM strikes" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1938691476793487404) 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ Implied volatility has come down sharply in 1-week and 1-month contracts making it less attractive to sell volatility here" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1938691479737676047) 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The first crypto index ETFs have now been approved in the US consistent with our previous Monthly Outlook: 🔹Crypto index ETFs are first on the list for the SEC 🔹Proposals for in-kind creations/redemptions next- though the SEC could extend this to October [----] 🔹Staking inclusion proposals seem likely to be approved but staff have unresolved questions. SEC may be forced to act sooner due to rule 6c-11 🔹Single-name altcoin ETF applications many of these have final statutory deadlines in October (generic listing standards on the way)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1940106490410672297) 2025-07-01T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The "largest short position against ETH in history" is a gross exaggeration . what's actually happening (Below: chart of CFTC leveraged funds' cash margined shorts)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941120712745611394) 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements "Spot ETH ETF inflows gained traction in June with $1.16B in net inflows an unprecedented surge for these instruments motivated by greater institutional participation in the CME basis trade" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941120715518022002) 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Leveraged funds short positions in CME ETH futures climbed from $466M in early May to $1.6B as of June [--] a difference of $1.14B that - look at that -- maps closely to the increase in ETF inflows" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941120718948991204) 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why The basis yield on offer for CME ETH futures (vs spot) increased from 6% on average in February to 8-9% in May and June attracting more institutional players to buy ETH spot vs sell ETH futures" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941120720618279080) 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The USD selling will continue until morale improves . The damage has already been done. With @Dav1dDuong from @coinbase https://t.co/58HVpLAdA5 The damage has already been done. With @Dav1dDuong from @coinbase https://t.co/58HVpLAdA5" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941156286021988451) 2025-07-04T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Early onchain data suggest genuine appetite for Robinhood and Backed Finance's onchain public stocks and ETFs. Volumes on Solana for xStocks climbed from $1M on Jun [--] to more than $8M within [--] days while daily active wallets briefly exceeded 6.5k 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941483713524793780) 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Since June that relationship has flippednew wallets are climbing while transaction counts remain highlikely pointing to fresh retail participation alongside existing high-frequency flow" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941483717580685737) 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ The broader liquidity backdrop is turning more supportive as well. Stablecoin balances across major L2s have reached a record $12B with Arbitrum commanding the highest share among them and growing 35% in the last [--] months. This weeks tokenization frenzy marks the first credible attempt to pull equity trading into the crypto stack at scale" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1941483719765664070) 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "LFG: 98% of institutional investors in the EU & UK are eyeing tokenized assets. The key drivers amid a clearer regulatory outlook: enhanced portfolio construction and portfolio diversification. The future of finance is making strides towards tokenization. https://www.coinbase.com/blog/increasing-engagement-and-rising-allocations-research-on-eu-and-uk-institutional-investors-show-plans https://www.coinbase.com/blog/increasing-engagement-and-rising-allocations-research-on-eu-and-uk-institutional-investors-show-plans" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1943373858838290848) 2025-07-10T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Weekly thoughts: BTC is in real price discovery territory now as US House prepares for its inaugural "Crypto Week" commencing July [--]. This is likely to increase market momentum while legislators work to advance their objectives in the crypto space. Other trends to watch 🧵 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-11 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-11" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1943734468025475370) 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Ahead of the PUMP launch (July [--] 2pm UTC) we note that has surpassed in both (1) launchpad revenue and (2) share of tokens that have graduated to secondary-market trading on Solana. http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1943734469300511146) 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ The more revealing metric is the flow of graduated tokensearlier this week graduate share moved past 60% decisively dethroning http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1943734470877516239) 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ The juxtaposition of roughly flat aggregate fees across the top two launchpad players with a sharply rising graduate share for suggests that the challenger is winning not by expanding the market but by pulling both users and high-quality launches away from http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://letsBONK.fun" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1943734472567889957) 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What's the clamping function on perpetual futures Most people know what a funding rate is but many don't know that some exchanges normalize the funding rate against a base interest rate and a clamping function to eliminate funding rate variability below a certain threshold 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1944015603099931064) 2025-07-12T12:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Next: House will vote on the crypto bills tomorrow (including stablecoins + market structure) expect stablecoin bill to reach White House on Friday https://www.theblock.co/post/362942/us-house-votes-to-move-forward-with-stablecoin-genius-crypto-market-structure-bills-following-tumultuous-procedural-vote https://www.theblock.co/post/362942/us-house-votes-to-move-forward-with-stablecoin-genius-crypto-market-structure-bills-following-tumultuous-procedural-vote" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1945544112461041955) 2025-07-16T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "More CLARITY on GENIUS Act. Today's House vote on both bills are going to be historic. The procedural impasse has been cleared (Anti-CBDC Act to go into NDAA) and now the real work begins. Expect a big White House announcement on Friday" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1945873565758226909) 2025-07-17T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Global M2 money supply matters for BTC upside but wen rally We made this custom-weighted global M2 basket which seems to lead BTC by [---] days with correlations 90% across most 1-month to 3-year windows. In other words fresh liquidity tends to migrate into crypto. Read more 👇 Expanding money supply lowers cash yields and encourages reach-for-beta behavior while bitcoinborderless 24/7 and highly responsive to marginal capitaltends to capture a disproportionate share of that flow. The fit is statistical however; policy shocks or structural breaks could erode the linkage so treat M2 as a" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1946199434167193765) 2025-07-18T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is a stealth trend that few are tracking right now -- for every new BTC created by bitcoin miners the spot bitcoin ETFs have bought more than twice that amount from the open market. Huge impact on supply. As part of our Charting Crypto quarterly report we ask several leading voices in crypto to contribute a chart that they believe is the most important crypto trend today. This quarter @BitwiseInvest highlighted BTC scarcity and ETP inflows. https://t.co/0kxKVSIBhc As part of our Charting Crypto quarterly report we ask several leading voices in crypto to contribute a chart that they" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1946292066343903419) 2025-07-18T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I get why people are worried about inflation and think 3% CPI is the new normal. They're wrong. But I get it" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1946585829498892608) 2025-07-19T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This week we had @MerlinEgalite from Morpho join us on the @CoinbaseInsto podcast talking about crypto backed loans and the latest DeFi trends - listen here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/670cDnnJo6hfiuP9GNVW3fsi=kEFBUvOhQYiKaVuidpu4Fg https://open.spotify.com/episode/670cDnnJo6hfiuP9GNVW3fsi=kEFBUvOhQYiKaVuidpu4Fg" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1946650209045385509) 2025-07-19T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin dominance will moderate but I doubt it'll get to [----] alt szn levels. Thanks to @RealVision for having me on to discuss our market views 🚀 $BTC dominance is surging but whats really driving it @AshBennington and @Dav1dDuong head of research at @CoinbaseInsto. Institutional inflows and renewed trust are pushing BTC back into the spotlight. https://t.co/pWfgXrABFr 🚀 $BTC dominance is surging but whats really driving it @AshBennington and @Dav1dDuong head of research at @CoinbaseInsto. Institutional inflows and renewed trust are pushing BTC back into the spotlight." [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1946749837132620020) 2025-07-20T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Corporate treasury vehicles have significantly increased their crypto holdings in [----] adding over 825k ETH ($3.0B as of July 18) and 2.95M SOL ($531M) across [--] dedicated buying entities. We think corporate balance sheets will remain key drivers of demand in 2H25. See more 👇 🔹Additionally many of these companies have committed to staking their ETH and SOL to earn yield and some are even locking up their supply via DeFi integration reflecting a fundamental shift from speculative trading to strategic asset allocation. 🔹Indeed the preference for ETH and SOL in these vehicles has partly been" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1947275152527446469) 2025-07-21T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "ETH and SOL performance is being driven more by technicals than fundamentals at the moment which explains the move over the last week. Still Ethereum's share of onchain activity has been in decline since late 2Q24 while Solana currently owns 44% of all activity. Read more🧵👇 🔹We use the latest @Dune Index data to track consolidated blockchain adoption from combining three key metrics: transaction fees (45% weight) USD transfer volumes (45% weight) and the number of transactions (10% weight) 🔹Fees and transfers are weighted higher since they are more indicative of meaningful activity" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1947313545919476040) 2025-07-21T15:11Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements "Major shift from previous months when long ETH liquidations outpaced shorts: Short ETH liquidations in July MTD = $723M Long ETH liquidations in July MTD = $567M" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1947660361034842175) 2025-07-22T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Prescient chart from @paraficapital in our latest @CoinbaseInsto Charting Crypto report. Polymarket saw $1.16B in trading volumes in June and they recently agreed to buy derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCX for $112M effectively re-entering the US market" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1947833784487055657) 2025-07-23T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And listen to our latest @CoinbaseInsto podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coinbase-institutional-market-call/id1705007171 In our latest Weekly Market Call we discussed the fundamental shift thats shaking up ETH supply/demand dynamics. See more of the charts that matter most in Charting Crypto: Tailwinds Take Shape - https://t.co/EWUEjZzIE5 https://t.co/6w1l3wK5zj https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coinbase-institutional-market-call/id1705007171 In our latest Weekly Market Call we discussed the fundamental shift thats shaking up ETH supply/demand dynamics. See more of the" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1948092428168114226) 2025-07-23T18:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "FUD on ETH staking withdrawals. Yes ETH's rally has led some long-term stakers to take profit and exit but that's not the whole story. The withdrawal queue spike (see dashboard below) is also being driven by a liquidity crunch in DeFi lending markets.👇 🔹TL;DR: This isn't a "bank run" 🔹Borrow rates on Aave are spiking as utilization rates have hit 94% making many looping strategies (borrow ETH buy LST stake repeat) unprofitable 🔹As a result many traders are unstaking LSTs so they can repay their loans 🔹But entry demand to enter staking is also high ($1.15B waiting) offsetting some of the" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1948407265494479145) 2025-07-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As markets were widely pricing the US and European Union agreed to a trade deal before the August [--] deadline. EU will face 15% tariffs on most exports including cars but not pharmaceuticals or metals" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1949543377361367065) 2025-07-27T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The next [--] days in macro are going to be bonkers. We've got month-end institutional portfolio rebalancing an FOMC meeting with a split board the reciprocal tariffs deadline more Q2 earnings Report from White House's Working Group on Digital Assets and nonfarm payrolls 🧵👇 🔹FOMC. Could we hear a dovish tone from the Fed meeting on July [--] Fed funds futures are currently pricing in around 60% odds of a 25bps cut in September (zero for July) but the board appears divided with Christopher Waller leading the dovish contingent (and suggesting dissent is possible). Questions about Jerome Powells" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1950266046553669718) 2025-07-29T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The week in macro. Following the Feds FOMC meeting markets lowered the probability of a September rate cut from 68% to 42% based on Fed funds futures. But today's NFP gives the doves more to discuss and the US Treasury QRA suggests possible short-term liquidity drain 🧵👇 🔹The two dissents (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) at the Fed meeting were largely expected (and priced by markets) while the remaining board decisions appear to be data dependent leaving Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a more comfortable position. 🔹The focus on the jobs market during the press conference put the" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1951296046073614506) 2025-08-01T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Downward revisions in nonfarm payrolls have quietly cut 1.1M jobs from initial estimates since Jan [----]. July 2025s NFP showed only 73k new jobs versus 106k expected while the prior two months were revised down by 253K. What happens if you go back further to [----] See 🧵👇 🔹When you aggregate every monthly back-adjustment since early [----] the net loss reaches about 1.1M jobs. 🔹This weakness is obscured from headline watchers who focus solely on first prints. 🔹The labor softness is mirrored in industrial survey data: Julys ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to [----] (from 49.0) below the 50-point" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1952733695091048840) 2025-08-05T14:09Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements "Regulatory factors are driving crypto performance this week as the summer lull sets in. President Trump signed an executive order that allows alternative assets like crypto to be included in 401(k)s and SEC staff said ministerial liquid-staking programs are NOT securities. 🧵👇 🔹Crypto in 401(k)s Trump ordered the Labor Department to reassess its guidance on alt investments and clarify the fiduciary responsibilities involved. In our view this development could have a major impact on the crypto market by introducing a new wave of mainstream adoption even if it takes time for these firms to" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1953808675505942857) 2025-08-08T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "has clawed back market share. Over the past week revenue share grew from 20% to slightly over 50% reversing a multi-week decline during which had captured most of the revenue. See more below 🧵👇 🔹While launchpad revenues had been coming down since mid-July they have recently recovered their previous averages. 🔹Stronger user activity and higher graduate retention reinforce comeback. The daily-active-address (DAA) ratio has compressed from 1.8x to near parity while share of tokens that progress beyond the launch-pad phase has ticked up. 🔹In our view transparency moves and aggressive" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1954280857604137452) 2025-08-09T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Good summary of the last eight months: "Any idiot can face a crisis - its day to day living that wears you out." - Anton Chekhov https://share.google/tEdTmiq2Kn3bD4Eui https://share.google/tEdTmiq2Kn3bD4Eui" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1954697003360801064) 2025-08-11T00:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "US PPI shock (July) should take rate cut probabilities back to where we feel comfortable. (We still believe 25bps cuts are coming in Sept and Oct but felt the market impact would be blunted after that had become consensus after last week's NFP revision). Breakdown 🧵👇 🔹US PPI 0.9% MoM vs 0.2% expected (US PPI 3.3% YoY vs 2.5% expected) 🔹This is getting tricky -- we think the weaker labor market overrides prices but the hot PPI suggests a rise in services which is material to CPI 🔹Is this tariffs Eh . don't think anyone really knows for sure. Sectors like manufacturing inputs and consumer" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1955984871047749704) 2025-08-14T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Many people have debated whether Fed cuts in Sept could represent a local top for crypto. We dont think so and today's PPI data makes that less likely. With significant retail capital sitting on the sidelines we think Fed easing could unlock greater retail participation 🧵👇 🔹Weve previously enumerated how our custom global M2 money supply index leads BTC by [---] days and points to a fresh wave of potential liquidity in late 3Q25 / early 4Q25. 🔹This is important because for institutional capital it seems like the narrative keeps coming back to large cap names which leaves altcoin support to" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1956098708006953236) 2025-08-14T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Does the world need more L1s Circle and Stripe both announced plans this week to launch L1s primarily to support stablecoin payments. Both Arc (Circle) & Tempo (Stripe) are reported to be EVM-compatible L1s but what does this mean for incumbents Maybe not what you think 🧵👇 🔹Circle has announced Arcan EVM-compatible L1 with USDC as native gas deterministic sub-second finality (Malachite) and a built-in stablecoin FX engine aimed at cross-border settlement and B2B flows. Timelines point to public testnet before mainnet beta in [----]. 🔹Stripe is reported to be developing an EVM-compatible" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1956732935773557004) 2025-08-16T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Excellent AI has taught the robots to knock people down . For a second there I was worried this timeline wouldn't involve T-800 murder bots . (#WorldHumanoidRobotGames)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1956836677634134033) 2025-08-16T21:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Excellent AI has taught the robots to knock people down with impunity . Next stop: T-800 murder bots" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1956839813971108208) 2025-08-16T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Jackson Hole and PPI are just excuses for market players to trim risk ahead of the US Treasury's TGA liquidity drain ($400B) in the weeks ahead. This explains why bitcoin has lost trend alongside many equity names. But we think the path forward looks clearer in September" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1957961242792063044) 2025-08-20T00:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This week we had @osf_rekt (founder of @RektBrands ) on the Coinbase Markets Podcast to discuss brand coins. Listen to the full interview here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pj8TlUTfubD2qoWU8BwoR https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pj8TlUTfubD2qoWU8BwoR" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1958714450762244548) 2025-08-22T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Incredible turnaround in crypto markets after these dovish Powell comments - seems like September 25bps rate cut locked in: 🔹Tariff adjustment is a "one-off" factor 🔹Rising risk of a decline in labor market demand 🔹With less labor market demand less risk of wage adjustments (Nice to see our rates view validated)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1958960595429953997) 2025-08-22T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "No bullshit. On Wednesday I was on @MilkRoadDaily and said #1 political pressure is not a factor for the Fed #2 the Fed will definitely cut rates in September and #3 labor data matters more than inflation. In other words everything that Powell said at Jackson Hole today" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1958964948165623977) 2025-08-22T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "USDC goes omnichain. Circles new Gateway makes USDC effectively chain-agnostic raising transfer velocity and collapsing cross-chain friction. Gateway is an interoperability layer that allows a single non-custodial Gateway Wallet to hold a unified USDC balance. See more 🧵👇 🔹Balances can be minted on any supported chain in the next block ( 500ms) after a user-signed intent and attestation. 🔹This replaces discrete AB bridges and source-chain finality wait times with continuous on-demand accessshortening settlement cycles reducing working capital and eliminating the need for rebalancing or" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1959256086566826055) 2025-08-23T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ok we caught the Fed flip from hawkish to dovish (vs consensus expectations of neutral or hawkish) in Sept. What's next At Jackson Hole they're already talking about Oct and Dec . we see at least two more cuts this year" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1959274430406037800) 2025-08-23T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'm off this week so no podcast or newsletter but sharing a clip of @CoinbaseInsto Research's recent interview with @osf_rekt explaining more about the partnership between @RektBrands and @base - see the rest on Spotify or Apple Podcasts" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1960063477952713124) 2025-08-25T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A few weeks ago we spoke to @MerlinEgalite about intents based onchain lending platform Morpho V2 from @MorphoLabs - here's a clip the full @CoinbaseInsto interview is on Spotify or Apple Podcasts" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1960344638193094791) 2025-08-26T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Markets are being driven by the hearing on Fed Gov Lisa Cook today despite core PCE coming in line with expectations. It's also notable that the US Treasury's TGA balance has climbed to $600B over the last week. The good news is it's only another $250B away from the target " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1961442092388843791) 2025-08-29T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This week we spoke with @LucaNetz from @pudgypenguins about the nature of IP in the crypto space and the possibility of taking more projects public. Don't miss our latest @CoinbaseInsto Markets podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1963352771656131052) 2025-09-03T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The median Bloomberg survey forecast for tomorrow's US nonfarm payrolls print (August) is 75k. Despite the poor JOLTS this week we think the odds should in fact favor a beat (Polymarket says same). This will probably be one of the most closely watched NFPs in recent memory 🧵👇 🔹The revisions might matter more than the headline number after what happened last month 🔹This is the first NFP report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics following the removal of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer 🔹We think the odds of a greater than 75k jobs print are fairly high" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1963661190464151693) 2025-09-04T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Nonfarm payrolls came in way below expectations at 22k (vs 75k forecast) though UE steady at 4.3% (i.e labor participation.) With US 30y falling 20bps in two days no one's talking about curve steepening anymore. Good. Our thoughts on why steepening is a red herring 🧵👇 🔹With cuts all but priced in a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve is an inevitable outcome. The question now is how to interpret its significance for risk assets. 🔹The reality is that 10y yields have actually been falling recently while even 30y yields have retraced (despite the initial concerns about contagion from" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1964023272757948796) 2025-09-05T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "State of Hyperliquids stablecoin race. Stablecoin operators including Agora Ethena (out) Frax Native Markets Paxos and Sky are currently engaged in a bidding war to issue perp DEX Hyperliquids USDH stablecoin. Final vote: September [--] at 10:00-11:00 UTC. Thoughts 🧵👇 🔹Currently Hyperliquids trading pairs mostly rely on USDC which means the yield from its reserves flow to Circle. Many proposals offer to share 95-100% of prospective yield generation with the ecosystem. 🔹 Ethena Labs has officially withdrawn. 🔹This could potentially redirect $200-220M annually (at current Treasury rates)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1966295102948569329) 2025-09-12T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fed FOMC next week. With Miran likely to be confirmed on Monday and jobs data still weak odds of a 50bps cut on Sept [--] have been rising. But with the Fed's credibility at stake we think it'll be 25bps with two more cuts in Oct and Dec this year. What else to consider 🧵👇 🔹No change to inflation trend headline CPI (August) came in slightly above expectations (+0.4% vs median 0.3% M/M expected) driven by persistent core services/shelter and energy. That print was not enough to tip the balance on an annualized basis while more importantly core CPI remains contained. (Supercore services only" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1966514824642232382) 2025-09-12T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Using trading volume as a proxy for attention we think the DAT narrative is softening at the margin which may reduce market players willingness to pay a speculative premium. 3/ The alignment of late-July/August treasury-purchase bursts with volume spikesfollowed by crypto price consolidationunderscores the flow-driven nature of the trade: when primary buying momentum slows and macro uncertainty caps sentiment enthusiasm wanes and mNAVs compress back toward 1" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1966857560935248319) 2025-09-13T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite softer volumes and compressed premia however balance-sheet absorption continuesmost visibly in ETHshifting the center of gravity from mispricing to flows and composition. Both DAT NAVs and the total share of supply held by DATs continued to trend up through September /4 That implies that DATs are still a structural demand sink for circulating supply even as their equities are priced near NAV. We think the combination of rising ownership share with mNAV [--] defines the PvP phase. Cross-sectional outcomes hinge on execution and policy choices (financing mix treasury cadence treatment of" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1966857562873110655) 2025-09-13T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting survey results from JD Power . about 29% of respondents used AI to research crypto topics in the last [--] months vs consumers asking AI about saving strategies (45%) credit scores or credit cards (41%) and stock market advice (36%) . we're still early " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1967395103347208702) 2025-09-15T01:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With Brian Quintenz's nomination to CFTC Chair stalling the White House may be considering alternative candidates: 🔹Michael Selig chief counsel to SEC crypto task force 🔹Tyler Williams counselor to Bessent on crypto policy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/white-house-weighs-more-candidates-for-cftc-as-nominee-stalls https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/white-house-weighs-more-candidates-for-cftc-as-nominee-stalls" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1968794863773606001) 2025-09-18T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Fed's dovish 25bp rate cut this week was a game-changer for markets signaling more easing ahead. Crypto responded positivelyBTC up 1.51% to $117k ETH +1.55% to $4594before taking a breather. Healthy flows on exchanges show balanced positioning while options lean bullish on BTC. Ethereum's demand is surging with positive stablecoin growth and ETF inflows. This could mark a risk-on pivot for digital assetsthoughts on latest move #CryptoMarket" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1969020200428449915) 2025-09-19T12:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What's been happening on Ethereum lately Demand-side metrics for ETH are improving while ETH supply (i.e. ETH immediately available for sale) looks tight. Stablecoin supply on Ethereum is accelerating with strong positive 30-day momentum while ETF flows remain net-positiveboth signals that new purchasing power is arriving. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1969814281656086614) 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So positioning supports upside drift but raises fragility to shocks. Open interest for ETH perps sits near cycle highs with persistently positive funding rates signaling a long-biased leverage regime that can fuel a continuation of this trend. Ofc it amplifies liquidation risk around negative catalysts. 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1969814291026264195) 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Options markets echo this balance: the 1m 25-delta skew is modestly put-rich (albeit down from last week) while the 6m skew is closer to flat (and falling) indicating near-term event hedging alongside a more neutral medium-term stanceconditions that we think support a buy the dip environment. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1969814294050308573) 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In altcoin markets we think last weekends crypto liquidations were a consequence of positioning stress that had been flashing warning signals for a few weeks. The altcoin open interest dominance ratio sat well above the [---] threshold that often precedes major liquidations. 🧵👇 🔹This past weekend the ratio hit [---] before we saw $1.8B of forced unwinds as longs were liquidated across the market. 🔹Even after the flush the ratio remains elevated at [---] which we think highlights the continued need for cautious positioning around upcoming macro data releases that could jolt rates and the dollar" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1971700870007132543) 2025-09-26T22:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Net BTC spot longs looked less extended as of end-September based on the relative supply of long- vs short-term bitcoin holders. Meanwhile the decline in long ETH market positioning appeared consistent across spot perps and options last month whereas spot SOL buying likely reflected the launch of several new SOL-dedicated digital asset treasuries (DATs)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1973813469188116941) 2025-10-02T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can we stop talking about gold The short answer is no so once again from the top and probably not for the last time: BTC is a hedge against excess money creation not inflation. Yes the concepts are related but they're not the same thing. And oh btw gold also sucks as an inflation hedge. Let's run it 🧵👇 🔹The market seems to be at pains to explain why gold breached new all-time-highs in September while bitcoins price action languished last month. 🔹Part of that is because many market players and media pundits remain fixated on the idea of bitcoin as an inflation hedge akin to gold despite" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1974504382273122393) 2025-10-04T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can we stop talking about gold The short answer is no so once again from the top and probably not for the last time: BTC is a hedge against excess money creation NOT inflation. Yes the concepts are related but they're not the same thing. And oh btw gold also sucks as an inflation hedge. Let's run it 🧵👇 🔹The market seems to be at pains to explain why gold breached new all-time-highs in September while bitcoins price action languished last month. 🔹Part of that is because many market players and media pundits remain fixated on the idea of bitcoin as an inflation hedge akin to gold despite" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1974505282274275652) 2025-10-04T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Debasement trade: what's the myth vs reality Bitcoins brief breakout towards a new all-time-high (breaching $126k at the start of the week) reflected pressure on the USD cleaner crypto positioning and massive inflows into US spot BTC ETFs. That said risk assets across the board were unable to sustain the move higher despite many market players initially shrugging off concerns about a prolonged US government shutdown (entering its tenth day). (Note that a key deadline is approaching on October [--] when some federal workers and active-duty military personnel are due to be paid.) Nevertheless the" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1976679163504312336) 2025-10-10T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "100% tariffs on China starting November [--]. US equity markets closed. Cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria. (40% hourly red candles for tokens in the top [--] 🤯)" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1976763268304646529) 2025-10-10T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great speaking at @thegeforum with @Pagetgrace @emily_graffeo & Gordon Grant about Digital Asset Strategies last week. It was somewhat unnerving to speak right after Nassim Taleb but that was quickly displaced by the outpouring of crypto curious audience members who showed up" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1978014915341263155) 2025-10-14T08:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Something about knives falling and trying to catch them 🔹BTC 200d MA: $107400 new support level 🔹ETH 200d MA not a factor until $3156 so it's more about big round numbers until then 🔹SOL 200d MA near $173.55" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1978932459371704351) 2025-10-16T21:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DrMoDentist At least for a little while " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1979255506247078003) 2025-10-17T18:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Before there's any FUD on today's CFTC report showing a 11.1K ($1.5B) short CME futures position by leveraged funds it's important to remember there's another side to that basis trade" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1890510019654832223) 2025-02-14T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For more including our views on Twenty One Capital (and Janover + Upexi) and Vitalik's RISC-V proposal see our full report here https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-04-25 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-04-25" [X Link](https://x.com/DavidDuong/status/1915747771455619542) 2025-04-25T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bitcoin's long-term holders still control 85% of circulating BTC: their share continues to grind higher while exchange net flow remains negative. With fewer liquid coins available each new dollar of demand pushes price higher amplifying upside momentum. See our longer form explanation: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-18 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-18" [X Link](https://x.com/DavidDuong/status/1946540531091136804) 2025-07-19T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Stablecoin supply continues to grow with solid monthly momentum signaling fresh onchain liquidity in crypto. Stablecoin circulation has risen to a record $265B with trailing 30-day growth running at 5%well above the zero line yet far below Januarys double-digit burst. 🧵 🔹A growing rate of net issuance means capital is moving into not out of the crypto ecosystem providing incremental buy-side firepower. 🔹The moderate pace also suggests the market isnt in blow-off-top territory leaving room for coins to grind higher" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1953140413994299465) 2025-08-06T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "ETH demand isn't over yet. Since the start of August the top ETH DATs have purchased over 795k ETH (US$3.6B) as these entities now control over 2% of the total ETH supply. BMNR's new raise of $20B gives it the total capacity to buy $24.5B worth of ETH. See recent list below: 🔹Aug 10: BMNR bought another 317.1k ETH 🔹Aug 11: ETHZilla bought 82.2k ETH 🔹Aug 14: SBET bought 206.5k ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1957258939059352044) 2025-08-18T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Something is definitely rotten in the state of US labor data. The prelim benchmark payrolls revision came in at -911k vs a median survey forecast of -682k. As a reality check this basically says there were actually a million fewer jobs in the US economy than actually exist " [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1965442167176139120) 2025-09-09T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Meanwhile cross-chain bridge flows have stabilized with intermittent inflows pointing to a gradual re-aggregation of activity back toward Ethereum settlement. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/DavidDuong/status/1969814284483088857) 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "At the same time 30-day exchange net flows are deeply negative implying coins continue to move away from order books. That mechanically reduces near-term sell pressure even as the composition of the float shiftssmart-contract balances have been trending lower suggesting some rotation *out of DeFi wrappers* but not necessarily back onto exchanges. 3/ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969814287020675360 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969814287020675360" [X Link](https://x.com/DavidDuong/status/1969814287020675360) 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "*** Weekly: Market looks past the shutdown *** Our October outlook is tactically bullish: we think US dollar softness a short-term global liquidity impulse and a Fed policy bias toward insurance cuts create a favorable market setup for crypto. Absent a hawkish surprise we think these conditions increase the odds of BTC-led upside until November where liquidity headwinds may come into play. What does the US government shutdown mean for crypto The US is now in a partial government shutdown which could delay the release of some key economic statistics that the Fed relies on for their policy" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1974230839040110746) 2025-10-03T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Me: at 5pm on Friday hoping to enjoy a quiet weekend not unpacking Ethena's ADL exemptions Binance's collateral valuation mechanics and random market maker risk transfers. Crypto:" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1977927045972738083) 2025-10-14T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto's Flash Crash. The phrase Black Friday now carries a very different connotation for crypto market participants compared to the rest of the world following Fridays flash crash that saw $19B in leveraged positions wiped out. Ostensibly the catalyst for the move was the announcement of 100% tariffs and new export controls on China (subsequently walked back) but the unprecedented scale of the move suggest many moving parts to the story. In our latest podcast we discuss the main vectors contributing to the sell off including the markets massive liquidity drain the collateral valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1978201093701001431) 2025-10-14T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Gold & silver see their biggest one-day PLUNGE in [--] YEARSgold -6.3% silver -8.7% Yet crickets from the media. Meanwhile bitcoin sneezes and it's phrases like "CRYPTO BLOODBATH" and "APOCALYPSE" . Why the double standard" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1980778061621797334) 2025-10-21T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Gold & silver see their biggest one-day plunge in [--] YEARSgold -6.3% silver -8.7% Yet crickets from the media. Meanwhile bitcoin sneezes and it's phrases like "CRYPTO BLOODBATH" and "APOCALYPSE" . Why the double standard" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1980779136760312282) 2025-10-21T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DrMoDentist Think the prospective inflation data is shaking up both equity and crypto markets but crypto still hasn't fully stabilized following the flash crash on October [--]. On the other hand the range (at least for BTC) is tigher because of the leverage washout" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1981017123851002307) 2025-10-22T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting story from @emily_graffeo on changes in bitcoin HODL behavior . Big Bitcoin holders are moving their wealth from the blockchain onto Wall Streets balance sheet. A new generation of ETFs is giving the crypto rich a novel way to fold their digital fortunes into the regulated financial system https://t.co/joDlKHM5fG https://t.co/wZU4ZHIOds Big Bitcoin holders are moving their wealth from the blockchain onto Wall Streets balance sheet. A new generation of ETFs is giving the crypto rich a novel way to fold their digital fortunes into the regulated financial system" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1981040001421844526) 2025-10-22T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "List of Missing US Data Releases Due to Shutdown: 🔹Nonfarm Payrolls 🔹Initial Jobless Claims 🔹Factory Orders 🔹Retail Sales 🔹Producer Price Index 🔹Construction Spending 🔹Trade Balance 🔹Wholesale Inventories 🔹Real Earnings 🔹Business Inventories 🔹Housing Starts/Building Permits 🔹Import/Export Prices 🔹Industrial Production 🔹Net TICS Flows" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1981352407339848152) 2025-10-23T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BLS drops Sept [----] CPI amid the government shutdownheadline & core BOTH at 3.0% YoY BEATING median forecasts of 3.1% 📉 This rare data release (to hit SSA's COLA deadline) dodged shutdown-induced glitches but markets braced for a volatility bomb. Instead A dovish gift that keeps the Fed's rate-cut party going. Quick recap: Equities have been jittery this week crypto sweating tariffs. But this print Pure relief. Even the tariffs impact (goods up just 0.5% MoM) seems pretty tolerable. No ugly surprise to clash with Powell's dovish vibes last week (cut in Q4 and end QT by Dec.) That's a higher" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1981718852363817449) 2025-10-24T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Where are the DATs BTC digital asset treasury companies (DATs) have largely ghosted the post-Oct [--] drawdown and are yet to re-engage. Over the last two weeks BTC buying by DATs fell to near year-to-date lows and has not meaningfully recovered even on green days. A short 🧵👇 🔹We think that absence matters because BTC DATs are usually heavy hitters with deep pocketsthe ones with the capacity to step in with size when conviction is high. In our view their absence for nearly two weeks signals limited confidence on their part. 🔹The only consistent buyer since the drawdown has been on the ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1982081154933985339) 2025-10-25T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Excited to announce that starting October [--] early access to Coinbase Research reportsfeaturing weekly monthly and quarterly commentary on crypto markets macro trends tokenomics and morewill be exclusive to institutional clients and Coinbase One (US) subscribers delivered via email [--] days early before posting on our website. What report topics interest you most #Crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1982462068214170018) 2025-10-26T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Based on an analysis of breakeven levels from straddle and strangle options strategies on bitcoin the market's implied probability distribution for BTC prices over the next 3-6 months shows a current range spanning from $90k on the downside to $160k on the upside. A short 🧵👇 To break it down simply: A straddle involves buying both a call and put at the same strike price profiting from big moves in either direction while a strangle uses different strikes for wider range coverage at lower cost. The breakevens here imply the market sees more room for BTC to rally significantly perhaps driven" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1983208328173117830) 2025-10-28T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Since October [--] we've seen a clear sector rotation in crypto markets shifting away from pure speculative bets toward "utility + yield" focused narratives. Smart money is pouring into yield protocols capitalizing on post-crash opportunities that have pushed APYs back into double-digitsthink boosted rates from fixed/variable yield stacks or funding-rate arbitrage plays. Meanwhile segments like NFTs metaverse and gaming are getting a fresh spark from innovative mechanics such as PunkStrategy's deflationary loops in NFT trading plus big headline acquisitions (e.g. Coinbase snapping up UPONLY)." [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1983562095103820271) 2025-10-29T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'm not a fan of the FUD generated every time we see a large BTC move from dormant wallets. Yes the pace of inactive BTC wallets springing to life has accelerated this year. But analyzing this activity is only valuable when paired with data on where these coins are going and whats happening in macro. A good example is the recent headline that [-----] BTC has moved out of long-term wallets over the last two weeks. While alarming we have actually been seeing net outflows from exchanges this month. That suggests that this is more a low-signal alert rather than a headline to be traded. That's not" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1984286100194787746) 2025-10-31T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Crypto's still navigating a tough macro environmenteven after October's brutal sell-off wiped out $19B in leverage. The risks pile on from escalating trade wars US sanctions on Russian oil ballooning fiscal deficits and bubbly valuations in stocks & beyond. My thoughts 🧵👇 In the latest Coinbase Monthly Outlook (now available to Coinbase One US subscribers) I discuss how despite Fed easing 10-year US Treasury yields hover around 4.0% stuck in a 3.5-4.5% range. That stability is partially why Ive been complacent about yield curve steepening at the margin (typically the curve flattens during" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1985035338406932978) 2025-11-02T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Love the fact that even the Fed is talking about x402 and the payments revolution https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/take-on-payments/2025/10/20/new-world-of-machine-to-machine-payments https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/take-on-payments/2025/10/20/new-world-of-machine-to-machine-payments" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1985374554236113134) 2025-11-03T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Seeing the buzz on X about standard M2 money supply missing the signal on recent #BTC dumpit's true unadjusted versions often lag and decouple late-cycle. But adjusted indexes can capture nuances better for timely insights - see chart 👇 What tweaks to M2 have you found useful" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1985799586104082572) 2025-11-04T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Over much of the last year BTC spot positioning (i.e. net short-term holders) has largely converged with perp funding rates and inverted options skewcapturing spikes like the Nov [----] election demand surge and the April [----] Liberation Day dump. But lately seems like the increase in net STH positioning seems to be happening not because of accumulation by short-term holders but outflows from long-term OGs. The question is whether holder dynamics are irrevocably changing It's important to note that deleveraging has hit hard across BTC ETH SOL perps which should be shaking out weaker hands while" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1986140627780993150) 2025-11-05T18:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Saylor to the rescue with STRE sale but $100K remains an important battleground for #Bitcoin based on the distribution of costs basis across total available supply. A large concentration of supply is clustered around acquisition prices of between $98K and $100K" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1986907805450920134) 2025-11-07T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#Bitcoin markets outlook from my interview with @SkyNewsAust" [X Link](https://x.com/Dav1dDuong/status/1988079553462628853) 2025-11-11T03:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Dav1dDuong David Duong
David Duong posts on X about bitcoin, crypto, coinbase, has been the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Month [------] +81%
- [--] Months [-------] +64%
- [--] Year [-------] +800%
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- [--] Week [--] +23%
- [--] Month [--] +189%
- [--] Months [---] +23%
- [--] Year [---] +331%
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- [--] Months [-----] +59%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies stocks technology brands currencies exchanges countries events nfts travel destinations
Social topic influence bitcoin, crypto, coinbase, has been, inflation, stocks, fed, money, market, fomc
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @coinbaseinsto @scottmelker @realvision @apomplianos @coinbase @dav1dduong @merlinegalite @ashbennington @osfrekt @rektbrands @emilygraffeo @drmodentist @apruden08 @kaejhee @mdudas @glassnode @apompliano @cindyleowtt @driftprotocol @oroogle
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Ethereum (ETH) Solana (SOL) USDC (USDC) Spotify Technology (SPOT) MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"BTC returns remain uncorrelated with US equity returns but the coefficient has been rising since mid-September from [----] to [----] based on a 60-day rolling window. We think market anticipation over spot bitcoin ETFs in 4Q23 is currently putting a floor on BTC prices for now "
X Link 2023-10-07T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/7) When might the market expect to see one or more spot bitcoin ETFs See 🧵👇 (and read our Monthly Outlook )"
X Link 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(2/7) The timing of the SECs spot bitcoin ETF decisions has been complicated by gridlock in the US House of Representatives over federal funding which could trigger a government shutdown on November [--] potentially leading up to 90% of SEC staff to be furloughed"
X Link 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(3/7) Already the SEC has deferred its decision on multiple spot bitcoin ETF filings with a couple now having a second deadline of January [--] [----] and the majority having a third deadline of January [--] 2024"
X Link 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(4/7) However I believe its important that the ARK-21Shares Bitcoin ETF application has a final deadline for SEC review of January [--] 2024"
X Link 2023-10-13T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(2/6) With the validator entry at peak capacity for the last several months staking yields have dropped an average of 0.1% per week from over 5% to its current level of 3.5%"
X Link 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(3/6) The yield on staked ETH provides a floor for the crypto ecosystem in our view providing a benchmark for alternative crypto investments. ETHs 3.5% staking yield sounds pretty low Especially compared to an opportunity cost of over 5% nominal on US Treasury bills"
X Link 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(4/6) But youre really not earning 5% on those T-bills either --the real yield you earn (that is the rate minus inflation) is actually 3.1% ex-ante (using 2y inflation expectations of around 2%) or 1.3% ex-post (using current CPI data)"
X Link 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(5/6) Compared to that the real ETH staking yield is 3.2% (that is subtracting 30d annualized supply growth of 0.32%) not adjusted for translation gains or losses"
X Link 2023-10-14T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/6) How much of the decline in crypto trading volumes is related to the withdrawal of global central bank liquidity"
X Link 2023-10-20T13:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(2/6) The steep pace of global central bank liquidity withdrawals over the last six months has proven to be a material constraint on trading activity across all asset classes and crypto has been no exception"
X Link 2023-10-20T13:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ BTC moved more than [--] std dev higher in the last week (relative to the last 3m) compared to a [---] to [--] std dev move lower for US stocks. That massive divergence partly reflects a deteriorating macro trading environment juxtaposed against a positive idiosyncratic story for BTC"
X Link 2023-10-27T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2/ A big part of that comes down to market participants speculating on the extent to which spot bitcoin ETF approvals have (or more accurately have not) been fully priced in"
X Link 2023-10-27T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Tokenization- after failing to live up to its initial promise of putting trillions of USD in RWA onchain a lot of skeptics think tokenization is still more hype than reality . while this criticism has some merit we think this crypto cycle is actually different 🧵👇"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Example: the global rate environment. Between 2017-18 the Fed gradually hiked rates by 175bps to 2.25-2.50% and kept its balance sheet stable-ish. Comparatively the Fed has hiked rates by 525bps to 5.25-5.50% in the current cycle and reduced its balance sheet by over $1T"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Why it matters - From the consumer perspective higher bond yields have contributed to a surge in yield-seeking behavior. That demand has been funneled into more protocols seeking to tap into the market for tokenized US Treasuries in a way that wasnt present in 2017"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ The majority of traditional securities transactions currently settle T+2 during which time funds are locked up and underutilized. For markets that can transact anywhere from hundreds of billions to over a trillion USD per day that gets expensive fast"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ Thus we think the business use case for tokenization has pivoted away from putting illiquid tangible RWA onchain and towards capital market instruments like US Treasuries bank deposits money market funds and repos"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KaeJhee @mdudas @coinbase Link:"
X Link 2023-11-03T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Coinbase + @Glassnode teamed up to create the Guide to Crypto Markets a look at the most important onchain analytics and advanced trading metrics in crypto. Check it out 👉 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets"
X Link 2024-01-09T15:32Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements
"Monthly Outlook: Post-ETF Trading Themes: While US spot bitcoin ETFs are important we think institutional investors may be missing out on other opportunities and themes that could be relevant in the post spot bitcoin ETF environment. 🧵👇"
X Link 2024-02-08T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ We believe a search for yield will rejuvenate interest in DeFi in [----]. Not only has (1) the cash and carry trade between BTC CME futures vs spot become less lucrative given the access to ETFs but (2) many G10 central banks will soon begin cutting interest rates in earnest"
X Link 2024-02-08T15:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1 Activity on CME bitcoin and ether futures has picked up sharply in recent weeks alongside the rise in net inflows into spot BTC ETFs suggesting institutional interest in this space is growing. The trend reveals how ETH has started to catch up to BTC performance as of late"
X Link 2024-02-23T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2 Ethena has been getting a lot of attention this week for its interest-bearing synthetic dollar USDe that launched mainnet on February [--]. The concept behind Ethena is that it tokenizes the cash and carry trade between spot and perps. We discuss the mechanics and risks"
X Link 2024-02-23T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Amazing. The SEC only approved the 19b-4 filings so still need to wait for the S-1s (meaning no ETH ETFs on exchanges yet). But looks like they approved this on the basis of CME futures-vs-spot correlations as well https://www.sec.gov/files/tm/lk87adfs99.pdf https://www.sec.gov/files/tm/lk87adfs99.pdf"
X Link 2024-05-23T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ Table [--] displays the calculated h-index for several top EVM based chains over the week ended June [--] [----]. We also leverage Dunes decoded contract database to discover how many unique smart contracts received transactions in the past week on each network"
X Link 2024-06-25T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ For more read our report at Coinbase Research https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-06-07 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-06-07"
X Link 2024-06-25T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Markets Call is live In this episode we have a special guest Jack Platts co-founder of Hypersphere joining us to provide insights into the cryptocurrency market. Watch the video or listen to the podcast on Spotify Apple or Audible. https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/market-calls/coinbase-institutional-weekly-market-call-july-30-2024 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/market-calls/coinbase-institutional-weekly-market-call-july-30-2024"
X Link 2024-07-30T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Morgan Stanley's [-----] financial advisors manage nearly $4T of assets and starting next week they'll be able to recommend US spot bitcoin ETFs to certain clients. Let's gooooooooo 🔥 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html"
X Link 2024-08-03T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Coinbase's latest Monthly Outlook. This chart on the linear relationship between stocks and bitcoin. Correlations have been clustered inside values of [--] and [----] over the last 9-10 months which we would consider weak and expect to continue over at least the medium term"
X Link 2024-08-15T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Short yen carry trades x crypto. A second polynomial equation suggests JPY borrowing can explain around 50% of the variation in total open interest in CME bitcoin futures"
X Link 2024-08-16T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Both ETH and SOL currently have a beta of around [----] and [----] respectively (compared to an average [----] and [----] in 1H24) measured over a 90-day window of daily price changes relative to the Coinbase Broad Index (market cap weighted index that captures [--] tokens worth $1.7T)"
X Link 2024-08-19T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#wolfofwallstreet with @scottmelker - Always one of my favorite podcasts to be on. Why is ETH underperforming BTC Why is BTC underperforming stocks Why are stocks losing money Heres my latest views on crypto markets. https://www.youtube.com/live/CAIhKx9fqpU https://www.youtube.com/live/CAIhKx9fqpU"
X Link 2024-09-04T14:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great being at Token2049 to talk about everything from the Fed and BTC staking to tokenization and chain abstraction"
X Link 2024-09-23T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"AI fear: OpenAI will become Skynet and enslave all humanity. AI reality: AI models' integration with ad buys will suck up all of our discretionary income as we end up buying things we never would otherwise"
X Link 2024-09-23T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Takeaways from Token2049: Because I'm terrible at fitting anything into [---] characters he's my long form take on Token2049 TLDR - Investor sentiment seems fairly benign key themes include emerging alt L1s Bitcoin L2s (re)staking DePIN RWA AA and UX https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-09-27 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-09-27"
X Link 2024-09-29T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The move lower in crypto markets this week resulted in $700M in long perp liquidations the highest weekly level since early August. We think the market is now directionally more balanced as investors digest the large # of potential macro catalysts. See our weekly for more deets"
X Link 2024-10-04T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also covered: Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments this week FTX distributions timeline $1.6B in token unlocks this week lower liquidity because of Golden Week in Asia / holidays in US China stimulus and APAC capital rotation"
X Link 2024-10-04T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also just had some really great conversations in Singapore"
X Link 2024-10-07T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tackling crypto markets HBO's Satoshi reveal and the next set of catalysts on The Wolf of All Streets with @scottmelker https://www.youtube.com/live/MYHISURijM4 https://www.youtube.com/live/MYHISURijM4"
X Link 2024-10-09T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly - Uptober's Obstacles. This week we cover the upcoming China fiscal briefing (in 1h) Mt Gox delays US crypto regulation Unichain on testnet Ethereum EIP-7782 and [----]. https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-10-11 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2024-10-11"
X Link 2024-10-12T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"West Coast Vibes. A significant portion of Solana's high value transactions could be US-based based on the timing of txn fee patterns potentially with a large user base skewed towards the West Coast"
X Link 2024-10-18T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Base surpassed Arbitrum to become the largest L2 by total value locked (TVL) at $2.4B largely driven by the success of Aerodrome a decentralized exchange (DEX) on Base. Iykyk"
X Link 2024-10-21T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Coinbase Markets Podcast. This week we discuss: 🔹 AI's first crypto token (GOAT) 🔹 Stripe's acquisition of Bridge 🔹 Fed Governor Chris Waller talks DeFi 🔹 Polymarket and the home stretch for the US election 🔹 Macro and flows https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fiErMyjihFYkgxRsddWpAsi=8rAqRG3zRwKCAcJTenCrPw https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fiErMyjihFYkgxRsddWpAsi=8rAqRG3zRwKCAcJTenCrPw"
X Link 2024-10-23T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Another great event @APompliano - Speaking on the panel gave me a lot to think about re: 🔹the growing BTC ecosystem 🔹L1 design and differentiation 🔹crypto x the outcome of US elections 🔹 influence of ETF options and 🔹effect of information asymmetry in crypto markets"
X Link 2024-10-27T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Meme splicing. Incredible amounts of value are captured through Solanas token issuance and trading processes making Solana trading the third most profitable onchain sector in crypto behind stablecoins and layer-1 (L1) network fees"
X Link 2024-11-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Chart [--] depicts the correlation of Ethereum and Solana DEX volumes against Coinbase exchange volumes revealing Solanas DEX volumes began to meaningfully deviate from the exchange in July even as Ethereum DEX correlations have tracked upwards"
X Link 2024-11-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Don't miss our latest Coinbase Institutional Markets podcast where we interview @cindyleowtt from @DriftProtocol on perps prediction markets and portfolios https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/podcasts https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/media/podcasts"
X Link 2024-12-04T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CoinbaseInsto this is a great milestone to highlight but I think it needs a little context to fully appreciate The Coinbase [--] Index reached a new high of [---]. Track the performance of the cryptoeconomy here https://t.co/93fSLDcsW3 https://t.co/Qy6AJmijls The Coinbase [--] Index reached a new high of [---]. Track the performance of the cryptoeconomy here https://t.co/93fSLDcsW3 https://t.co/Qy6AJmijls"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ What is the COIN50 It tracks the performance of [--] digital assets and helps give a snapshot of how the broader crypto market is performing. (It's like looking at the S&P500 to know how US stocks are doing. You wouldn't just look at AAPL right)"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ The [---] point milestone represents a significant moment in crypto's growth cycle -- in short we're up 5x in under [--] years. THIS is how to measure market sentiment. Massive"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ We're not the first crypto index but we're the first to truly cover all the main sectors in the space. That means COIN50 gives us key insights into the true market health of crypto. 🌡"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Today stablecoins 1% of US M2 money supply . with M2 at $21T 10% would still only be $2.1T"
X Link 2024-12-17T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"*** Crypto Market Outlook [----] *** Our [----] Crypto Market Outlook is now live The annual Outlook provides investors with deep dives that span the crypto universe from altcoins to ETFs staking to gaming and much more. The key areas were focused on include: 🔹The [----] macro landscape where we discuss the shift in the US regulatory environment expectations on US fiscal and monetary policy crypto ETFs [---] stablecoins x payments tokenization and the DeFi resurgence 🔹How crypto is disrupting technological innovation with decentralized prediction markets AI agents with crypto wallets gaming DePIN"
X Link 2024-12-18T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Should today's NFP and UE numbers really push the "good news is bad news" regime Yes 256k is a massive blow out compared to the 165k survey forecast but the Fed's not swapping from cuts to hikes any time soon. For now monetary policy is still stimulative and the economy is expanding at close to 3% "
X Link 2025-01-10T15:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"At Coinbase Research we start every year by taking a look back and holding ourselves accountable for the predictions we made in the previous year's outlook. Our institutional clients know that as an exchange we don't make price predictions but we make forecasts on market trends trading risks and other critical developments for the crypto industry. Here's the list. (Full report + 1Q25 outlook here: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-01-10"
X Link 2025-01-10T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks to @RealVision -- their latest FULL episode just dropped where we discuss Coinbase's predictions on crypto market trends in [----] Stablecoins AI agents DePIN ETFs DeFi gaming cats and dogs living together mass hysteria. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision"
X Link 2025-01-15T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks to @RealVision -- their latest FULL episode just dropped where we discuss Coinbase's predictions on crypto market trends in [----] Stablecoins AI agents DePIN ETFs DeFi gaming dogs and cats living together mass hysteria. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QRfPEzH3Pfg&ab_channel=RealVision"
X Link 2025-01-15T18:03Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements
"Crypto markets are primarily being driven by macro factors ahead of inauguration day as the Feds data-dependent stance makes it challenging to pinpoint the path for monetary policy this year. Indeed market conditions appear somewhat volatile from a macro perspective pushing the 65-day rolling correlation between the COIN50 index and the S&P [---] above 40% up from Decembers average of 35%. For now absent other drivers we think positioning and technicals will likely dictate performance though we expect a heavy emphasis on fiscal issues and government policy after the inauguration. The fact that"
X Link 2025-01-17T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"📘Executive orders and SEC actions. While macro markets have been somewhat quiet this week as many world leaders congregated in Davos for WEF crypto markets have been extremely active. That has involved parsing through the economic implications of Trumps early executive orders as well as the impacts of the Trump-linked memecoins launched last weekend. Details of the first crypto-related executive order: 🔹create a crypto working group led by David Sacks which is tasked with developing a federal regulatory framework for crypto and evaluating the creation of a national digital asset stockpile"
X Link 2025-01-24T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DEX volumes have gone up massively since inauguration now around 20.5% of CEX volumes . here's the chart by chain with Solana (no surprise given the $TRUMP launch) taking the lead"
X Link 2025-01-24T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@oroogle To be clear that quote was from @davidgokhshtein"
X Link 2025-02-10T13:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Macro events to watch: 🔹US governments funding resolution to avoid a shutdown (deadline: Saturday March [--] at 12:01am ET) - sounds like Democrats will vote for GOP bill 🔹Feds upcoming FOMC meeting (March 18-19) - what matters is how Fed Chair Powell addresses trade policy fiscal policy changes and most of all its quantitative tightening (QT) program. We think theres a good chance of a pause or stop in QT as bank reserve levels are approaching the 10-11% of GDP threshold. 🔹1Q25 earnings reports in April - what does consumer demand truly look like Read our full weekly report for more details"
X Link 2025-03-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What's really happening in markets If we look at the total assets of the Fed's balance sheet excluding reverse repos and the US TGA balance this proxy of market liquidity fell by over $500B from $6.2T in early June [----] to nearly $5.7T by the start of [----]. We think the recent crypto sell off has largely reflected a convergence of prices back to that lower liquidity trend after a months-long period of outperformance. The good news The drawdown in the TGA balance over the last two months from $745B (end-2024) to $500B has mechanically raised liquidity levels back above $6T. Plus we think the"
X Link 2025-03-17T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto performance by sector year-to-date: 🔹COIN50 index is down 25.5% 🔹Store of value (e.g. BTC) down 14.2% 🔹Media & entertainment down 52.3% 🔹DeFi memecoins and infrastructure sectors all down around 45% Market turbulence impact has been consistent across sectors like DeFi memecoins and infrastructure with relatively similar severity in declines except for media & entertainment. This highlights market-wide risk aversion that doesn't appear to consider individual project fundamentals and revenues"
X Link 2025-03-17T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Our latest [----] Institutional Investor Digital Assets Survey (published jointly with our partners EY-Parthenon) is out now. Some key stats: 🔹85% of respondents increased allocations to crypto and digital assets-related products in [----] and a similar portion plan to continue doing so in [----]. 🔹59% plan to allocate more than 5% of their AUM to crypto this year while 33% plan to allocate 1-5% of their AUM. 🔹73% of surveyed investors currently hold one or more tokens besides BTC and ETH. 🔹The percentage of respondents that engage with DeFi is set to triple in the next two years from 24% to 75%"
X Link 2025-03-19T02:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fed day (2pm ET) after disappointing retail sales below forecast inflation and below forecast NFP. What to expect: 🔹No cut today (4.25%-4.50%) - if you're confused about the current macro environment think about how they feel. But Fed put 🔹Dot plot and economic projections - it's not just about whether they expect more cuts this year but why 🔹Balance sheet - will they pause slow stop or keep their QT program unchanged Language here is hugely important"
X Link 2025-03-19T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Feds new dot plot suggests 50bps of cuts in [----] (no change) and another 50bps in [----] ( in consensus) = slightly hawkish despite change in dispersion of votes + a slowdown in the balance sheet runoff (good for liquidity) with the statement suggesting uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Lets see what Powell says at the press conference at 2pm ET"
X Link 2025-03-19T18:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Feds new dot plot suggests 50bps of cuts in [----] (no change) and another 50bps in [----] ( in consensus) = neutral to slightly hawkish despite change in dispersion of votes + a slowdown in the balance sheet runoff (good for liquidity) with the statement suggesting uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Lets see what Powell says at the press conference at 2pm ET"
X Link 2025-03-19T18:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"📘Weekly: Rules of Origin. The magnitude of these tariffs exceeded our expectations going into the event leaving the landscape no clearer for making investment decisions particularly as other countries assess potential countermeasures. A case in point is Canadas recent announcement for tariffs on US autos. The concern is that discrepancies over tariff definitions could lead to previously unanticipated escalations making a quick resolution relatively unlikely. Interestingly the event triggered a [---] standard deviation down move in US equities (S&P 500) relative to its 65-business day average"
X Link 2025-04-04T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This Thursday join us for a webinar on AI and Crypto with Grayscale's @LowBeta_ and @willhamilogden Register here: https://beyondthebuzzcryptoandai.splashthat.com/ https://beyondthebuzzcryptoandai.splashthat.com/"
X Link 2025-04-21T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting to see bitcoin performance against traditional "safe-haven" currencies like the Swiss franc"
X Link 2025-04-29T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"*** Weekly: Ticket to Ride *** Here's what we've been tracking this week: 🔹Feels like the headline about the Fed FDIC and OCC withdrawing statements on bank-related crypto activity has been underappreciated. 🔹But now we're seeing financial institutions including Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley separately announcing plans to offer crypto trading to their respective clients within the next [--] months. 🔹Juxtapose this with the recent clash between the ECB and European Commission over whether the EU's MiCA rules can withstand US efforts to dominate the global crypto market. 🔹Looking ahead"
X Link 2025-05-02T14:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin: Institutional Product Guide [----] 📘 Introducing the @CoinbaseInsto product guide to bitcoin markets for institutional investors Institutional players can now gain exposure to BTC in multiple ways including 🔹 spot 🔹 fixed-term futures 🔹 perpetual futures 🔹 options 🔹 ETFs and 🔹 equity proxies In this report we analyze these vehicles' efficiency size costs tradeoffs and other market dynamics. Download the full report here: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/resources/guides/bitcoin-guide-2025-products"
X Link 2025-05-06T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Monthly Outlook: Dethroning the Dollar. This month our focus is on bitcoin's long-term market capitalization growth. Our thesis is that in light of the massive portfolio rebalancing in USD holdings currently underway as well as the upcoming reclassification of gold from a Tier [--] to a Tier [--] asset we think crypto could directly benefit from countries diversifying their FX reserves into bitcoin. We estimate that if bitcoin is able to replace just 10% of those reserves that's adding $1.2T to the total bitcoin market cap competing with the $3.6T in international gold reserves today. See full"
X Link 2025-05-14T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"*** What really happened with the GENIUS Act *** This week Senator Thune filed for a cloture vote on the GENIUS Act (stablecoin bill) for Monday May [--] which (depending on the outcome) could set up full passage of the bill very soon. But what happened on May [--] Media coverage of the US Senates debate over the stablecoin bill has been somewhat misleading. Its true that on May [--] the Senate did not agree to move forward on the GENIUS Act in a cloture vote i.e. a vote to end debate on a bill or issue and proceed to a final vote. However the reality is that Democrats initially supported the bill in"
X Link 2025-05-17T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I get that The Economist's "independent journalism" doesn't necessarily mean that it's "objective" but they should at least have a basic understanding about the logical fallacies of causation vs correlation. I mostly take issue with their repeated claim that "crypto was at the centre of the crisis that shook American banks in 2023" which they've been saying for two years. Given all the FOIA data that's come out since that time it amazes me that the authors refuse to either educate themselves on or acknowledge what actually happened. The Economist presents the crisis as a straightforward run"
X Link 2025-05-18T13:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Here's the full letter I sent The Economist in case anyone cares to read it: The Economist recently suggested that the collapse of Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank in early [----] was linked to crypto markets broken by a tumble in cryptocurrency prices that began in late [----]. That is a gross mischaracterization of what actually happened. While its true that banks like Silvergate Signature and Silicon Valley Bank were crypto-friendly banks it was ultimately the duration mismatch of the assets and liabilities on these banks balance sheets (alongside insufficient risk controls) that contributed"
X Link 2025-05-18T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Technical picture for the COIN50 index looks bullish with 50d MA crossing the 100d. The last quarterly index review was just completed (May 26) and will be implemented on May [--] -- adding AKT TIA and dropping WIF ZEC https://www.marketvector.com/reviews/download/COIN50 https://www.marketvector.com/reviews/download/COIN50"
X Link 2025-05-27T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The latest 13F filings for US spot BTC ETFs (1Q25) indicate institutional ownership slipped from 29% to 25% of all shares largely due to a decline in hedge fund participation in the basis trade. Investment advisors grew their share from 10.8% to 12.4% over the quarter"
X Link 2025-05-28T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto-Friendly Regime Shift. The Trump administration has removed some existing obstacles that discouraged innovation mainstream adoption and growth addressing investment risks that may support investors joining or remaining in crypto markets"
X Link 2025-05-30T20:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Regulatory Clarity is Unlocking Institutions. Multiple pending crypto bills and a new crypto-friendly White House could help catalyze creditor behavior among institutional players (Credit Class 5) which are expected to receive a sizable investible sum"
X Link 2025-05-30T20:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"🔹The policy panel addressed cryptos growing political influence with the emergence of the crypto voter who has become a significant and unprecedented force in US politics with both parties recognizing the potential to engage new demographicsespecially younger and previously less-engaged voters"
X Link 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"🔹A conversation with hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont founder of Coatue Management highlighted the decreasing costs and barriers to entry for the crypto market framing its market cap against the vast $400-500T global net worth"
X Link 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"🔹Acting CFTC Chairperson Caroline Pham advocated for more flexible execution methods in derivatives markets and also emphasized that while perpetual futures are a growing part of the market the regulatory framework for these derivatives is already well-established and does not require reinventing the wheel just because this is a new asset class"
X Link 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Coinbase announcements: 🔹Shopify plans to offer USDC payments to all platform users via Base later this year 🔹Coinbase Business: a platform offering crypto services tailored for businesses including tools for accepting crypto payments. 🔹The Coinbase One Card coming this fall will earn 4% bitcoin rewards on every purchase"
X Link 2025-06-13T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Such a development would challenge the prevailing narrative of a front-loaded fiscal expansion and could lead to a reassessment of risk assets well before the longer-term fiscal risks fully materialize especially if economic data or Fed policy disappoints the markets growth expectations. 5/"
X Link 2025-06-16T13:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"On the other hand we think this situation could improve the prospects for store-of-value assets like gold and bitcoin over altcoins as BTC continues to benefit from the decline in the US dollars dominance. 6/"
X Link 2025-06-16T13:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Tron Inc is not an IPO. For anyone that didn't have Tron going public on their bingo card you may be in luck - technically it still hasn't. Tron Inc will be less a blockchain IPO and more a publicly-traded crypto vehicle that will hold 1% of the total TRX market cap. In other words it's closer to how MSTR and other PTCVs issue stocks and bonds to buy BTC ETH and SOL etc than it is an IPO in the traditional sense"
X Link 2025-06-18T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following this week's FOMC meeting where Fed staff cut the [----] GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% YoY and raised core inflation projections from 2.8% to 3.1% (i.e. a stagflation scenario) we wanted to reiterate our economic views https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-06-20 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-06-20"
X Link 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Growth: We think US activity will outperform current subdued expectations likely avoiding a recession in [----]. But even if one materializes we think that it would be an economic slowdown or mild recession at worst"
X Link 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/ Inflation: We think trade-related inflation fears are overblown. Over the long run tariffs tend to be disinflationary due to the effect on aggregate demand while secular trends like AI are more meaningful for the path of prices and productivity in our view"
X Link 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Money supply: Despite Fed QT US M2 money supply is expanding due to increased bank lending & deposits indicating a rising money multiplier. We foresee healthy liquidity for 1-2 quarters especially with higher odds of market-friendly fiscal policy shifts"
X Link 2025-06-21T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto adoption is on the rise in Canada and poised for institutional growth. I joined Coinbase Head of Allocators and Tokenization @smartestbeta and Country Director of Coinbase Canada @lucmatheson for a discussion on the state of crypto adoption in Canada and digital assets [---]. Key topics we covered:"
X Link 2025-06-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How Canadian asset managers are evaluating crypto for portfolio diversification and long-term value. Key Canadian crypto milestones including institutional adoption and regulatory firsts such as spot ETF approvals. Canadas evolving regulatory landscape and how recent federal and provincial elections could influence policy direction and institutional adoption"
X Link 2025-06-24T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stablecoins are going mainstream. Tonight I met up with some former tradFi co-workers covering financial stocks and their clients are all wondering if payment giants like MasterCard Visa and PayPal have strategies to integrate stablecoins"
X Link 2025-06-26T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The ceasefire between Israel and Iran since June [--] has helped stabilize markets allowing the COIN50 index to recover alongside US stocks"
X Link 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Indeed the [--] delta put-call skew for 30-day bitcoin options has started to decline after spiking last week while the skew for 90-day and 180-day contracts is in negative territory"
X Link 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ This suggests the short-term demand for downside protection in bitcoin puts has eased while we think the longer-term options show investors want BTC exposure but dont want to pay the upfront costs in the spot market reflecting the slight call bias in OTM strikes"
X Link 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ Implied volatility has come down sharply in 1-week and 1-month contracts making it less attractive to sell volatility here"
X Link 2025-06-27T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The first crypto index ETFs have now been approved in the US consistent with our previous Monthly Outlook: 🔹Crypto index ETFs are first on the list for the SEC 🔹Proposals for in-kind creations/redemptions next- though the SEC could extend this to October [----] 🔹Staking inclusion proposals seem likely to be approved but staff have unresolved questions. SEC may be forced to act sooner due to rule 6c-11 🔹Single-name altcoin ETF applications many of these have final statutory deadlines in October (generic listing standards on the way)"
X Link 2025-07-01T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The "largest short position against ETH in history" is a gross exaggeration . what's actually happening (Below: chart of CFTC leveraged funds' cash margined shorts)"
X Link 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements
"Spot ETH ETF inflows gained traction in June with $1.16B in net inflows an unprecedented surge for these instruments motivated by greater institutional participation in the CME basis trade"
X Link 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Leveraged funds short positions in CME ETH futures climbed from $466M in early May to $1.6B as of June [--] a difference of $1.14B that - look at that -- maps closely to the increase in ETF inflows"
X Link 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why The basis yield on offer for CME ETH futures (vs spot) increased from 6% on average in February to 8-9% in May and June attracting more institutional players to buy ETH spot vs sell ETH futures"
X Link 2025-07-04T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The USD selling will continue until morale improves . The damage has already been done. With @Dav1dDuong from @coinbase https://t.co/58HVpLAdA5 The damage has already been done. With @Dav1dDuong from @coinbase https://t.co/58HVpLAdA5"
X Link 2025-07-04T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Early onchain data suggest genuine appetite for Robinhood and Backed Finance's onchain public stocks and ETFs. Volumes on Solana for xStocks climbed from $1M on Jun [--] to more than $8M within [--] days while daily active wallets briefly exceeded 6.5k 🧵👇"
X Link 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Since June that relationship has flippednew wallets are climbing while transaction counts remain highlikely pointing to fresh retail participation alongside existing high-frequency flow"
X Link 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ The broader liquidity backdrop is turning more supportive as well. Stablecoin balances across major L2s have reached a record $12B with Arbitrum commanding the highest share among them and growing 35% in the last [--] months. This weeks tokenization frenzy marks the first credible attempt to pull equity trading into the crypto stack at scale"
X Link 2025-07-05T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"LFG: 98% of institutional investors in the EU & UK are eyeing tokenized assets. The key drivers amid a clearer regulatory outlook: enhanced portfolio construction and portfolio diversification. The future of finance is making strides towards tokenization. https://www.coinbase.com/blog/increasing-engagement-and-rising-allocations-research-on-eu-and-uk-institutional-investors-show-plans https://www.coinbase.com/blog/increasing-engagement-and-rising-allocations-research-on-eu-and-uk-institutional-investors-show-plans"
X Link 2025-07-10T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Weekly thoughts: BTC is in real price discovery territory now as US House prepares for its inaugural "Crypto Week" commencing July [--]. This is likely to increase market momentum while legislators work to advance their objectives in the crypto space. Other trends to watch 🧵 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-11 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-11"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Ahead of the PUMP launch (July [--] 2pm UTC) we note that has surpassed in both (1) launchpad revenue and (2) share of tokens that have graduated to secondary-market trading on Solana. http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ The more revealing metric is the flow of graduated tokensearlier this week graduate share moved past 60% decisively dethroning http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ The juxtaposition of roughly flat aggregate fees across the top two launchpad players with a sharply rising graduate share for suggests that the challenger is winning not by expanding the market but by pulling both users and high-quality launches away from http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://pump.fun http://letsBONK.fun http://letsBONK.fun"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's the clamping function on perpetual futures Most people know what a funding rate is but many don't know that some exchanges normalize the funding rate against a base interest rate and a clamping function to eliminate funding rate variability below a certain threshold 👇"
X Link 2025-07-12T12:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Next: House will vote on the crypto bills tomorrow (including stablecoins + market structure) expect stablecoin bill to reach White House on Friday https://www.theblock.co/post/362942/us-house-votes-to-move-forward-with-stablecoin-genius-crypto-market-structure-bills-following-tumultuous-procedural-vote https://www.theblock.co/post/362942/us-house-votes-to-move-forward-with-stablecoin-genius-crypto-market-structure-bills-following-tumultuous-procedural-vote"
X Link 2025-07-16T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"More CLARITY on GENIUS Act. Today's House vote on both bills are going to be historic. The procedural impasse has been cleared (Anti-CBDC Act to go into NDAA) and now the real work begins. Expect a big White House announcement on Friday"
X Link 2025-07-17T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Global M2 money supply matters for BTC upside but wen rally We made this custom-weighted global M2 basket which seems to lead BTC by [---] days with correlations 90% across most 1-month to 3-year windows. In other words fresh liquidity tends to migrate into crypto. Read more 👇 Expanding money supply lowers cash yields and encourages reach-for-beta behavior while bitcoinborderless 24/7 and highly responsive to marginal capitaltends to capture a disproportionate share of that flow. The fit is statistical however; policy shocks or structural breaks could erode the linkage so treat M2 as a"
X Link 2025-07-18T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a stealth trend that few are tracking right now -- for every new BTC created by bitcoin miners the spot bitcoin ETFs have bought more than twice that amount from the open market. Huge impact on supply. As part of our Charting Crypto quarterly report we ask several leading voices in crypto to contribute a chart that they believe is the most important crypto trend today. This quarter @BitwiseInvest highlighted BTC scarcity and ETP inflows. https://t.co/0kxKVSIBhc As part of our Charting Crypto quarterly report we ask several leading voices in crypto to contribute a chart that they"
X Link 2025-07-18T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I get why people are worried about inflation and think 3% CPI is the new normal. They're wrong. But I get it"
X Link 2025-07-19T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This week we had @MerlinEgalite from Morpho join us on the @CoinbaseInsto podcast talking about crypto backed loans and the latest DeFi trends - listen here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/670cDnnJo6hfiuP9GNVW3fsi=kEFBUvOhQYiKaVuidpu4Fg https://open.spotify.com/episode/670cDnnJo6hfiuP9GNVW3fsi=kEFBUvOhQYiKaVuidpu4Fg"
X Link 2025-07-19T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin dominance will moderate but I doubt it'll get to [----] alt szn levels. Thanks to @RealVision for having me on to discuss our market views 🚀 $BTC dominance is surging but whats really driving it @AshBennington and @Dav1dDuong head of research at @CoinbaseInsto. Institutional inflows and renewed trust are pushing BTC back into the spotlight. https://t.co/pWfgXrABFr 🚀 $BTC dominance is surging but whats really driving it @AshBennington and @Dav1dDuong head of research at @CoinbaseInsto. Institutional inflows and renewed trust are pushing BTC back into the spotlight."
X Link 2025-07-20T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Corporate treasury vehicles have significantly increased their crypto holdings in [----] adding over 825k ETH ($3.0B as of July 18) and 2.95M SOL ($531M) across [--] dedicated buying entities. We think corporate balance sheets will remain key drivers of demand in 2H25. See more 👇 🔹Additionally many of these companies have committed to staking their ETH and SOL to earn yield and some are even locking up their supply via DeFi integration reflecting a fundamental shift from speculative trading to strategic asset allocation. 🔹Indeed the preference for ETH and SOL in these vehicles has partly been"
X Link 2025-07-21T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"ETH and SOL performance is being driven more by technicals than fundamentals at the moment which explains the move over the last week. Still Ethereum's share of onchain activity has been in decline since late 2Q24 while Solana currently owns 44% of all activity. Read more🧵👇 🔹We use the latest @Dune Index data to track consolidated blockchain adoption from combining three key metrics: transaction fees (45% weight) USD transfer volumes (45% weight) and the number of transactions (10% weight) 🔹Fees and transfers are weighted higher since they are more indicative of meaningful activity"
X Link 2025-07-21T15:11Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements
"Major shift from previous months when long ETH liquidations outpaced shorts: Short ETH liquidations in July MTD = $723M Long ETH liquidations in July MTD = $567M"
X Link 2025-07-22T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Prescient chart from @paraficapital in our latest @CoinbaseInsto Charting Crypto report. Polymarket saw $1.16B in trading volumes in June and they recently agreed to buy derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCX for $112M effectively re-entering the US market"
X Link 2025-07-23T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And listen to our latest @CoinbaseInsto podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coinbase-institutional-market-call/id1705007171 In our latest Weekly Market Call we discussed the fundamental shift thats shaking up ETH supply/demand dynamics. See more of the charts that matter most in Charting Crypto: Tailwinds Take Shape - https://t.co/EWUEjZzIE5 https://t.co/6w1l3wK5zj https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coinbase-institutional-market-call/id1705007171 In our latest Weekly Market Call we discussed the fundamental shift thats shaking up ETH supply/demand dynamics. See more of the"
X Link 2025-07-23T18:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FUD on ETH staking withdrawals. Yes ETH's rally has led some long-term stakers to take profit and exit but that's not the whole story. The withdrawal queue spike (see dashboard below) is also being driven by a liquidity crunch in DeFi lending markets.👇 🔹TL;DR: This isn't a "bank run" 🔹Borrow rates on Aave are spiking as utilization rates have hit 94% making many looping strategies (borrow ETH buy LST stake repeat) unprofitable 🔹As a result many traders are unstaking LSTs so they can repay their loans 🔹But entry demand to enter staking is also high ($1.15B waiting) offsetting some of the"
X Link 2025-07-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As markets were widely pricing the US and European Union agreed to a trade deal before the August [--] deadline. EU will face 15% tariffs on most exports including cars but not pharmaceuticals or metals"
X Link 2025-07-27T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The next [--] days in macro are going to be bonkers. We've got month-end institutional portfolio rebalancing an FOMC meeting with a split board the reciprocal tariffs deadline more Q2 earnings Report from White House's Working Group on Digital Assets and nonfarm payrolls 🧵👇 🔹FOMC. Could we hear a dovish tone from the Fed meeting on July [--] Fed funds futures are currently pricing in around 60% odds of a 25bps cut in September (zero for July) but the board appears divided with Christopher Waller leading the dovish contingent (and suggesting dissent is possible). Questions about Jerome Powells"
X Link 2025-07-29T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The week in macro. Following the Feds FOMC meeting markets lowered the probability of a September rate cut from 68% to 42% based on Fed funds futures. But today's NFP gives the doves more to discuss and the US Treasury QRA suggests possible short-term liquidity drain 🧵👇 🔹The two dissents (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) at the Fed meeting were largely expected (and priced by markets) while the remaining board decisions appear to be data dependent leaving Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a more comfortable position. 🔹The focus on the jobs market during the press conference put the"
X Link 2025-08-01T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Downward revisions in nonfarm payrolls have quietly cut 1.1M jobs from initial estimates since Jan [----]. July 2025s NFP showed only 73k new jobs versus 106k expected while the prior two months were revised down by 253K. What happens if you go back further to [----] See 🧵👇 🔹When you aggregate every monthly back-adjustment since early [----] the net loss reaches about 1.1M jobs. 🔹This weakness is obscured from headline watchers who focus solely on first prints. 🔹The labor softness is mirrored in industrial survey data: Julys ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to [----] (from 49.0) below the 50-point"
X Link 2025-08-05T14:09Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements
"Regulatory factors are driving crypto performance this week as the summer lull sets in. President Trump signed an executive order that allows alternative assets like crypto to be included in 401(k)s and SEC staff said ministerial liquid-staking programs are NOT securities. 🧵👇 🔹Crypto in 401(k)s Trump ordered the Labor Department to reassess its guidance on alt investments and clarify the fiduciary responsibilities involved. In our view this development could have a major impact on the crypto market by introducing a new wave of mainstream adoption even if it takes time for these firms to"
X Link 2025-08-08T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"has clawed back market share. Over the past week revenue share grew from 20% to slightly over 50% reversing a multi-week decline during which had captured most of the revenue. See more below 🧵👇 🔹While launchpad revenues had been coming down since mid-July they have recently recovered their previous averages. 🔹Stronger user activity and higher graduate retention reinforce comeback. The daily-active-address (DAA) ratio has compressed from 1.8x to near parity while share of tokens that progress beyond the launch-pad phase has ticked up. 🔹In our view transparency moves and aggressive"
X Link 2025-08-09T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Good summary of the last eight months: "Any idiot can face a crisis - its day to day living that wears you out." - Anton Chekhov https://share.google/tEdTmiq2Kn3bD4Eui https://share.google/tEdTmiq2Kn3bD4Eui"
X Link 2025-08-11T00:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"US PPI shock (July) should take rate cut probabilities back to where we feel comfortable. (We still believe 25bps cuts are coming in Sept and Oct but felt the market impact would be blunted after that had become consensus after last week's NFP revision). Breakdown 🧵👇 🔹US PPI 0.9% MoM vs 0.2% expected (US PPI 3.3% YoY vs 2.5% expected) 🔹This is getting tricky -- we think the weaker labor market overrides prices but the hot PPI suggests a rise in services which is material to CPI 🔹Is this tariffs Eh . don't think anyone really knows for sure. Sectors like manufacturing inputs and consumer"
X Link 2025-08-14T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Many people have debated whether Fed cuts in Sept could represent a local top for crypto. We dont think so and today's PPI data makes that less likely. With significant retail capital sitting on the sidelines we think Fed easing could unlock greater retail participation 🧵👇 🔹Weve previously enumerated how our custom global M2 money supply index leads BTC by [---] days and points to a fresh wave of potential liquidity in late 3Q25 / early 4Q25. 🔹This is important because for institutional capital it seems like the narrative keeps coming back to large cap names which leaves altcoin support to"
X Link 2025-08-14T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Does the world need more L1s Circle and Stripe both announced plans this week to launch L1s primarily to support stablecoin payments. Both Arc (Circle) & Tempo (Stripe) are reported to be EVM-compatible L1s but what does this mean for incumbents Maybe not what you think 🧵👇 🔹Circle has announced Arcan EVM-compatible L1 with USDC as native gas deterministic sub-second finality (Malachite) and a built-in stablecoin FX engine aimed at cross-border settlement and B2B flows. Timelines point to public testnet before mainnet beta in [----]. 🔹Stripe is reported to be developing an EVM-compatible"
X Link 2025-08-16T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Excellent AI has taught the robots to knock people down . For a second there I was worried this timeline wouldn't involve T-800 murder bots . (#WorldHumanoidRobotGames)"
X Link 2025-08-16T21:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Excellent AI has taught the robots to knock people down with impunity . Next stop: T-800 murder bots"
X Link 2025-08-16T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jackson Hole and PPI are just excuses for market players to trim risk ahead of the US Treasury's TGA liquidity drain ($400B) in the weeks ahead. This explains why bitcoin has lost trend alongside many equity names. But we think the path forward looks clearer in September"
X Link 2025-08-20T00:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This week we had @osf_rekt (founder of @RektBrands ) on the Coinbase Markets Podcast to discuss brand coins. Listen to the full interview here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pj8TlUTfubD2qoWU8BwoR https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pj8TlUTfubD2qoWU8BwoR"
X Link 2025-08-22T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Incredible turnaround in crypto markets after these dovish Powell comments - seems like September 25bps rate cut locked in: 🔹Tariff adjustment is a "one-off" factor 🔹Rising risk of a decline in labor market demand 🔹With less labor market demand less risk of wage adjustments (Nice to see our rates view validated)"
X Link 2025-08-22T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"No bullshit. On Wednesday I was on @MilkRoadDaily and said #1 political pressure is not a factor for the Fed #2 the Fed will definitely cut rates in September and #3 labor data matters more than inflation. In other words everything that Powell said at Jackson Hole today"
X Link 2025-08-22T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"USDC goes omnichain. Circles new Gateway makes USDC effectively chain-agnostic raising transfer velocity and collapsing cross-chain friction. Gateway is an interoperability layer that allows a single non-custodial Gateway Wallet to hold a unified USDC balance. See more 🧵👇 🔹Balances can be minted on any supported chain in the next block ( 500ms) after a user-signed intent and attestation. 🔹This replaces discrete AB bridges and source-chain finality wait times with continuous on-demand accessshortening settlement cycles reducing working capital and eliminating the need for rebalancing or"
X Link 2025-08-23T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ok we caught the Fed flip from hawkish to dovish (vs consensus expectations of neutral or hawkish) in Sept. What's next At Jackson Hole they're already talking about Oct and Dec . we see at least two more cuts this year"
X Link 2025-08-23T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm off this week so no podcast or newsletter but sharing a clip of @CoinbaseInsto Research's recent interview with @osf_rekt explaining more about the partnership between @RektBrands and @base - see the rest on Spotify or Apple Podcasts"
X Link 2025-08-25T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A few weeks ago we spoke to @MerlinEgalite about intents based onchain lending platform Morpho V2 from @MorphoLabs - here's a clip the full @CoinbaseInsto interview is on Spotify or Apple Podcasts"
X Link 2025-08-26T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Markets are being driven by the hearing on Fed Gov Lisa Cook today despite core PCE coming in line with expectations. It's also notable that the US Treasury's TGA balance has climbed to $600B over the last week. The good news is it's only another $250B away from the target "
X Link 2025-08-29T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This week we spoke with @LucaNetz from @pudgypenguins about the nature of IP in the crypto space and the possibility of taking more projects public. Don't miss our latest @CoinbaseInsto Markets podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts"
X Link 2025-09-03T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The median Bloomberg survey forecast for tomorrow's US nonfarm payrolls print (August) is 75k. Despite the poor JOLTS this week we think the odds should in fact favor a beat (Polymarket says same). This will probably be one of the most closely watched NFPs in recent memory 🧵👇 🔹The revisions might matter more than the headline number after what happened last month 🔹This is the first NFP report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics following the removal of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer 🔹We think the odds of a greater than 75k jobs print are fairly high"
X Link 2025-09-04T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nonfarm payrolls came in way below expectations at 22k (vs 75k forecast) though UE steady at 4.3% (i.e labor participation.) With US 30y falling 20bps in two days no one's talking about curve steepening anymore. Good. Our thoughts on why steepening is a red herring 🧵👇 🔹With cuts all but priced in a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve is an inevitable outcome. The question now is how to interpret its significance for risk assets. 🔹The reality is that 10y yields have actually been falling recently while even 30y yields have retraced (despite the initial concerns about contagion from"
X Link 2025-09-05T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"State of Hyperliquids stablecoin race. Stablecoin operators including Agora Ethena (out) Frax Native Markets Paxos and Sky are currently engaged in a bidding war to issue perp DEX Hyperliquids USDH stablecoin. Final vote: September [--] at 10:00-11:00 UTC. Thoughts 🧵👇 🔹Currently Hyperliquids trading pairs mostly rely on USDC which means the yield from its reserves flow to Circle. Many proposals offer to share 95-100% of prospective yield generation with the ecosystem. 🔹 Ethena Labs has officially withdrawn. 🔹This could potentially redirect $200-220M annually (at current Treasury rates)"
X Link 2025-09-12T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed FOMC next week. With Miran likely to be confirmed on Monday and jobs data still weak odds of a 50bps cut on Sept [--] have been rising. But with the Fed's credibility at stake we think it'll be 25bps with two more cuts in Oct and Dec this year. What else to consider 🧵👇 🔹No change to inflation trend headline CPI (August) came in slightly above expectations (+0.4% vs median 0.3% M/M expected) driven by persistent core services/shelter and energy. That print was not enough to tip the balance on an annualized basis while more importantly core CPI remains contained. (Supercore services only"
X Link 2025-09-12T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Using trading volume as a proxy for attention we think the DAT narrative is softening at the margin which may reduce market players willingness to pay a speculative premium. 3/ The alignment of late-July/August treasury-purchase bursts with volume spikesfollowed by crypto price consolidationunderscores the flow-driven nature of the trade: when primary buying momentum slows and macro uncertainty caps sentiment enthusiasm wanes and mNAVs compress back toward 1"
X Link 2025-09-13T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite softer volumes and compressed premia however balance-sheet absorption continuesmost visibly in ETHshifting the center of gravity from mispricing to flows and composition. Both DAT NAVs and the total share of supply held by DATs continued to trend up through September /4 That implies that DATs are still a structural demand sink for circulating supply even as their equities are priced near NAV. We think the combination of rising ownership share with mNAV [--] defines the PvP phase. Cross-sectional outcomes hinge on execution and policy choices (financing mix treasury cadence treatment of"
X Link 2025-09-13T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting survey results from JD Power . about 29% of respondents used AI to research crypto topics in the last [--] months vs consumers asking AI about saving strategies (45%) credit scores or credit cards (41%) and stock market advice (36%) . we're still early "
X Link 2025-09-15T01:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With Brian Quintenz's nomination to CFTC Chair stalling the White House may be considering alternative candidates: 🔹Michael Selig chief counsel to SEC crypto task force 🔹Tyler Williams counselor to Bessent on crypto policy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/white-house-weighs-more-candidates-for-cftc-as-nominee-stalls https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/white-house-weighs-more-candidates-for-cftc-as-nominee-stalls"
X Link 2025-09-18T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fed's dovish 25bp rate cut this week was a game-changer for markets signaling more easing ahead. Crypto responded positivelyBTC up 1.51% to $117k ETH +1.55% to $4594before taking a breather. Healthy flows on exchanges show balanced positioning while options lean bullish on BTC. Ethereum's demand is surging with positive stablecoin growth and ETF inflows. This could mark a risk-on pivot for digital assetsthoughts on latest move #CryptoMarket"
X Link 2025-09-19T12:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's been happening on Ethereum lately Demand-side metrics for ETH are improving while ETH supply (i.e. ETH immediately available for sale) looks tight. Stablecoin supply on Ethereum is accelerating with strong positive 30-day momentum while ETF flows remain net-positiveboth signals that new purchasing power is arriving. 1/"
X Link 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So positioning supports upside drift but raises fragility to shocks. Open interest for ETH perps sits near cycle highs with persistently positive funding rates signaling a long-biased leverage regime that can fuel a continuation of this trend. Ofc it amplifies liquidation risk around negative catalysts. 4/"
X Link 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Options markets echo this balance: the 1m 25-delta skew is modestly put-rich (albeit down from last week) while the 6m skew is closer to flat (and falling) indicating near-term event hedging alongside a more neutral medium-term stanceconditions that we think support a buy the dip environment. 5/"
X Link 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In altcoin markets we think last weekends crypto liquidations were a consequence of positioning stress that had been flashing warning signals for a few weeks. The altcoin open interest dominance ratio sat well above the [---] threshold that often precedes major liquidations. 🧵👇 🔹This past weekend the ratio hit [---] before we saw $1.8B of forced unwinds as longs were liquidated across the market. 🔹Even after the flush the ratio remains elevated at [---] which we think highlights the continued need for cautious positioning around upcoming macro data releases that could jolt rates and the dollar"
X Link 2025-09-26T22:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Net BTC spot longs looked less extended as of end-September based on the relative supply of long- vs short-term bitcoin holders. Meanwhile the decline in long ETH market positioning appeared consistent across spot perps and options last month whereas spot SOL buying likely reflected the launch of several new SOL-dedicated digital asset treasuries (DATs)"
X Link 2025-10-02T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can we stop talking about gold The short answer is no so once again from the top and probably not for the last time: BTC is a hedge against excess money creation not inflation. Yes the concepts are related but they're not the same thing. And oh btw gold also sucks as an inflation hedge. Let's run it 🧵👇 🔹The market seems to be at pains to explain why gold breached new all-time-highs in September while bitcoins price action languished last month. 🔹Part of that is because many market players and media pundits remain fixated on the idea of bitcoin as an inflation hedge akin to gold despite"
X Link 2025-10-04T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can we stop talking about gold The short answer is no so once again from the top and probably not for the last time: BTC is a hedge against excess money creation NOT inflation. Yes the concepts are related but they're not the same thing. And oh btw gold also sucks as an inflation hedge. Let's run it 🧵👇 🔹The market seems to be at pains to explain why gold breached new all-time-highs in September while bitcoins price action languished last month. 🔹Part of that is because many market players and media pundits remain fixated on the idea of bitcoin as an inflation hedge akin to gold despite"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Debasement trade: what's the myth vs reality Bitcoins brief breakout towards a new all-time-high (breaching $126k at the start of the week) reflected pressure on the USD cleaner crypto positioning and massive inflows into US spot BTC ETFs. That said risk assets across the board were unable to sustain the move higher despite many market players initially shrugging off concerns about a prolonged US government shutdown (entering its tenth day). (Note that a key deadline is approaching on October [--] when some federal workers and active-duty military personnel are due to be paid.) Nevertheless the"
X Link 2025-10-10T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"100% tariffs on China starting November [--]. US equity markets closed. Cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria. (40% hourly red candles for tokens in the top [--] 🤯)"
X Link 2025-10-10T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great speaking at @thegeforum with @Pagetgrace @emily_graffeo & Gordon Grant about Digital Asset Strategies last week. It was somewhat unnerving to speak right after Nassim Taleb but that was quickly displaced by the outpouring of crypto curious audience members who showed up"
X Link 2025-10-14T08:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Something about knives falling and trying to catch them 🔹BTC 200d MA: $107400 new support level 🔹ETH 200d MA not a factor until $3156 so it's more about big round numbers until then 🔹SOL 200d MA near $173.55"
X Link 2025-10-16T21:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DrMoDentist At least for a little while "
X Link 2025-10-17T18:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Before there's any FUD on today's CFTC report showing a 11.1K ($1.5B) short CME futures position by leveraged funds it's important to remember there's another side to that basis trade"
X Link 2025-02-14T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For more including our views on Twenty One Capital (and Janover + Upexi) and Vitalik's RISC-V proposal see our full report here https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-04-25 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-04-25"
X Link 2025-04-25T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin's long-term holders still control 85% of circulating BTC: their share continues to grind higher while exchange net flow remains negative. With fewer liquid coins available each new dollar of demand pushes price higher amplifying upside momentum. See our longer form explanation: https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-18 https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-2025-07-18"
X Link 2025-07-19T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stablecoin supply continues to grow with solid monthly momentum signaling fresh onchain liquidity in crypto. Stablecoin circulation has risen to a record $265B with trailing 30-day growth running at 5%well above the zero line yet far below Januarys double-digit burst. 🧵 🔹A growing rate of net issuance means capital is moving into not out of the crypto ecosystem providing incremental buy-side firepower. 🔹The moderate pace also suggests the market isnt in blow-off-top territory leaving room for coins to grind higher"
X Link 2025-08-06T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ETH demand isn't over yet. Since the start of August the top ETH DATs have purchased over 795k ETH (US$3.6B) as these entities now control over 2% of the total ETH supply. BMNR's new raise of $20B gives it the total capacity to buy $24.5B worth of ETH. See recent list below: 🔹Aug 10: BMNR bought another 317.1k ETH 🔹Aug 11: ETHZilla bought 82.2k ETH 🔹Aug 14: SBET bought 206.5k ETH"
X Link 2025-08-18T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Something is definitely rotten in the state of US labor data. The prelim benchmark payrolls revision came in at -911k vs a median survey forecast of -682k. As a reality check this basically says there were actually a million fewer jobs in the US economy than actually exist "
X Link 2025-09-09T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Meanwhile cross-chain bridge flows have stabilized with intermittent inflows pointing to a gradual re-aggregation of activity back toward Ethereum settlement. 2/"
X Link 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"At the same time 30-day exchange net flows are deeply negative implying coins continue to move away from order books. That mechanically reduces near-term sell pressure even as the composition of the float shiftssmart-contract balances have been trending lower suggesting some rotation out of DeFi wrappers but not necessarily back onto exchanges. 3/ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969814287020675360 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969814287020675360"
X Link 2025-09-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"*** Weekly: Market looks past the shutdown *** Our October outlook is tactically bullish: we think US dollar softness a short-term global liquidity impulse and a Fed policy bias toward insurance cuts create a favorable market setup for crypto. Absent a hawkish surprise we think these conditions increase the odds of BTC-led upside until November where liquidity headwinds may come into play. What does the US government shutdown mean for crypto The US is now in a partial government shutdown which could delay the release of some key economic statistics that the Fed relies on for their policy"
X Link 2025-10-03T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Me: at 5pm on Friday hoping to enjoy a quiet weekend not unpacking Ethena's ADL exemptions Binance's collateral valuation mechanics and random market maker risk transfers. Crypto:"
X Link 2025-10-14T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto's Flash Crash. The phrase Black Friday now carries a very different connotation for crypto market participants compared to the rest of the world following Fridays flash crash that saw $19B in leveraged positions wiped out. Ostensibly the catalyst for the move was the announcement of 100% tariffs and new export controls on China (subsequently walked back) but the unprecedented scale of the move suggest many moving parts to the story. In our latest podcast we discuss the main vectors contributing to the sell off including the markets massive liquidity drain the collateral valuation"
X Link 2025-10-14T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold & silver see their biggest one-day PLUNGE in [--] YEARSgold -6.3% silver -8.7% Yet crickets from the media. Meanwhile bitcoin sneezes and it's phrases like "CRYPTO BLOODBATH" and "APOCALYPSE" . Why the double standard"
X Link 2025-10-21T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold & silver see their biggest one-day plunge in [--] YEARSgold -6.3% silver -8.7% Yet crickets from the media. Meanwhile bitcoin sneezes and it's phrases like "CRYPTO BLOODBATH" and "APOCALYPSE" . Why the double standard"
X Link 2025-10-21T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DrMoDentist Think the prospective inflation data is shaking up both equity and crypto markets but crypto still hasn't fully stabilized following the flash crash on October [--]. On the other hand the range (at least for BTC) is tigher because of the leverage washout"
X Link 2025-10-22T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting story from @emily_graffeo on changes in bitcoin HODL behavior . Big Bitcoin holders are moving their wealth from the blockchain onto Wall Streets balance sheet. A new generation of ETFs is giving the crypto rich a novel way to fold their digital fortunes into the regulated financial system https://t.co/joDlKHM5fG https://t.co/wZU4ZHIOds Big Bitcoin holders are moving their wealth from the blockchain onto Wall Streets balance sheet. A new generation of ETFs is giving the crypto rich a novel way to fold their digital fortunes into the regulated financial system"
X Link 2025-10-22T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"List of Missing US Data Releases Due to Shutdown: 🔹Nonfarm Payrolls 🔹Initial Jobless Claims 🔹Factory Orders 🔹Retail Sales 🔹Producer Price Index 🔹Construction Spending 🔹Trade Balance 🔹Wholesale Inventories 🔹Real Earnings 🔹Business Inventories 🔹Housing Starts/Building Permits 🔹Import/Export Prices 🔹Industrial Production 🔹Net TICS Flows"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BLS drops Sept [----] CPI amid the government shutdownheadline & core BOTH at 3.0% YoY BEATING median forecasts of 3.1% 📉 This rare data release (to hit SSA's COLA deadline) dodged shutdown-induced glitches but markets braced for a volatility bomb. Instead A dovish gift that keeps the Fed's rate-cut party going. Quick recap: Equities have been jittery this week crypto sweating tariffs. But this print Pure relief. Even the tariffs impact (goods up just 0.5% MoM) seems pretty tolerable. No ugly surprise to clash with Powell's dovish vibes last week (cut in Q4 and end QT by Dec.) That's a higher"
X Link 2025-10-24T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Where are the DATs BTC digital asset treasury companies (DATs) have largely ghosted the post-Oct [--] drawdown and are yet to re-engage. Over the last two weeks BTC buying by DATs fell to near year-to-date lows and has not meaningfully recovered even on green days. A short 🧵👇 🔹We think that absence matters because BTC DATs are usually heavy hitters with deep pocketsthe ones with the capacity to step in with size when conviction is high. In our view their absence for nearly two weeks signals limited confidence on their part. 🔹The only consistent buyer since the drawdown has been on the ETH"
X Link 2025-10-25T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Excited to announce that starting October [--] early access to Coinbase Research reportsfeaturing weekly monthly and quarterly commentary on crypto markets macro trends tokenomics and morewill be exclusive to institutional clients and Coinbase One (US) subscribers delivered via email [--] days early before posting on our website. What report topics interest you most #Crypto"
X Link 2025-10-26T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Based on an analysis of breakeven levels from straddle and strangle options strategies on bitcoin the market's implied probability distribution for BTC prices over the next 3-6 months shows a current range spanning from $90k on the downside to $160k on the upside. A short 🧵👇 To break it down simply: A straddle involves buying both a call and put at the same strike price profiting from big moves in either direction while a strangle uses different strikes for wider range coverage at lower cost. The breakevens here imply the market sees more room for BTC to rally significantly perhaps driven"
X Link 2025-10-28T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Since October [--] we've seen a clear sector rotation in crypto markets shifting away from pure speculative bets toward "utility + yield" focused narratives. Smart money is pouring into yield protocols capitalizing on post-crash opportunities that have pushed APYs back into double-digitsthink boosted rates from fixed/variable yield stacks or funding-rate arbitrage plays. Meanwhile segments like NFTs metaverse and gaming are getting a fresh spark from innovative mechanics such as PunkStrategy's deflationary loops in NFT trading plus big headline acquisitions (e.g. Coinbase snapping up UPONLY)."
X Link 2025-10-29T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm not a fan of the FUD generated every time we see a large BTC move from dormant wallets. Yes the pace of inactive BTC wallets springing to life has accelerated this year. But analyzing this activity is only valuable when paired with data on where these coins are going and whats happening in macro. A good example is the recent headline that [-----] BTC has moved out of long-term wallets over the last two weeks. While alarming we have actually been seeing net outflows from exchanges this month. That suggests that this is more a low-signal alert rather than a headline to be traded. That's not"
X Link 2025-10-31T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Crypto's still navigating a tough macro environmenteven after October's brutal sell-off wiped out $19B in leverage. The risks pile on from escalating trade wars US sanctions on Russian oil ballooning fiscal deficits and bubbly valuations in stocks & beyond. My thoughts 🧵👇 In the latest Coinbase Monthly Outlook (now available to Coinbase One US subscribers) I discuss how despite Fed easing 10-year US Treasury yields hover around 4.0% stuck in a 3.5-4.5% range. That stability is partially why Ive been complacent about yield curve steepening at the margin (typically the curve flattens during"
X Link 2025-11-02T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Love the fact that even the Fed is talking about x402 and the payments revolution https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/take-on-payments/2025/10/20/new-world-of-machine-to-machine-payments https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/take-on-payments/2025/10/20/new-world-of-machine-to-machine-payments"
X Link 2025-11-03T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Seeing the buzz on X about standard M2 money supply missing the signal on recent #BTC dumpit's true unadjusted versions often lag and decouple late-cycle. But adjusted indexes can capture nuances better for timely insights - see chart 👇 What tweaks to M2 have you found useful"
X Link 2025-11-04T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Over much of the last year BTC spot positioning (i.e. net short-term holders) has largely converged with perp funding rates and inverted options skewcapturing spikes like the Nov [----] election demand surge and the April [----] Liberation Day dump. But lately seems like the increase in net STH positioning seems to be happening not because of accumulation by short-term holders but outflows from long-term OGs. The question is whether holder dynamics are irrevocably changing It's important to note that deleveraging has hit hard across BTC ETH SOL perps which should be shaking out weaker hands while"
X Link 2025-11-05T18:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Saylor to the rescue with STRE sale but $100K remains an important battleground for #Bitcoin based on the distribution of costs basis across total available supply. A large concentration of supply is clustered around acquisition prices of between $98K and $100K"
X Link 2025-11-07T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin markets outlook from my interview with @SkyNewsAust"
X Link 2025-11-11T03:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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