# ![@DanielTNiles Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1948086848.png) @DanielTNiles Dan Niles

Dan Niles posts on X about ai, in the, fed, stocks the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1948086848/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1948086848/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +81%
- [--] Month [-------] -59%
- [--] Months [---------] -9.80%
- [--] Year [---------] -13%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1948086848/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1948086848/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -6.70%
- [--] Month [--] -16%
- [--] Months [--] +2.40%
- [--] Year [---] +25%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1948086848/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1948086848/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +0.11%
- [--] Month [-------] +0.39%
- [--] Months [-------] +9.60%
- [--] Year [-------] +22%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1948086848/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1948086848/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  63.46% [stocks](/list/stocks)  42.31% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  36.54% [countries](/list/countries)  12.5% [products](/list/products)  4.81% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  2.88% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  2.88% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  2.88% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  1.92% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.92%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) 31.73%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 22.12%, [fed](/topic/fed) 14.42%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 12.5%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) 11.54%, [$aapl](/topic/$aapl) 11.54%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 11.54%, [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) 11.54%, [money](/topic/money) 10.58%, [the first](/topic/the-first) 10.58%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@cnbc](/creator/undefined) [@squawkcnbc](/creator/undefined) [@hakumai69835915](/creator/undefined) [@davidfaber](/creator/undefined) [@saraeisen](/creator/undefined) [@sullycnbc](/creator/undefined) [@jprecept](/creator/undefined) [@beckyquick](/creator/undefined) [@morganlbrennan](/creator/undefined) [@jonfortt](/creator/undefined) [@cvpayne](/creator/undefined) [@jp_money_95630](/creator/undefined) [@joesquawk](/creator/undefined) [@cnbcovertime](/creator/undefined) [@nvidia](/creator/undefined) [@jchatterleycnn](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@deebosa](/creator/undefined) [@mariabartiromo](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Texas Instruments (TXN)](/topic/$txn) [Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)](/topic/$wfc) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)](/topic/$csco) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba) [Nike Inc (NKE)](/topic/$nke) [Impinj, Inc. Common Stock (PI)](/topic/$pi) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Robonomics Network (XRT)](/topic/$xrt) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Jabil, Inc. (JBL)](/topic/$jbl) [Zebra Technologies Corp. (ZBRA)](/topic/$zbra)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"On @CNBC 11am EST w/ @davidfaber @saraeisen on [----] outlook. I think it will be choppy given AI trade is getting more discerning as we enter yr [--] but new Fed chief in May will want to cut by at least [---] bps keeping the easy money flowing. Also talking Top5 Picks for 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2006376689228726300)  2025-12-31T14:47Z 121K followers, 163K engagements


"The shift since late October continued last week from large to small (Mag7 -4.5% R2K +2.2%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P -0.1% EW S&P 2.1%). From 10/29/25-2/6/26: Mag7 -6.8% R2K +7.5% S&P +0.6% and EW S&P +7.4%. Big picture the Fed started QE light in December tax benefits from the OBBB are in Q1 and newly nominated Fed chair Warsh will want more aggressive rate cuts than current chair Powell though he is likely to be more conservative on the balance sheet. I would expect easy money policies as result to be supportive of the overall market in the near-term. However I continue to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2020631041573040312)  2026-02-08T22:49Z 121K followers, 40.3K engagements


"Demand was solid over the Cyber5 driving the $XRT (retail ETF) up 2.2% over the past wk. My AI index also rose 1.9% powered by the OpenAI names +4.8% while Google related +0.8%. This wk has: 1) Fed 12/10 (25 bps cut but numerous dissents likely) 2) $ORCL 12/10 (expecting great results but will it matter w/ OpenAI overhang) 3) $AVGO 12/11 (expecting solid results with hyperscaler demand for ASICs driving results.) Normally I would be very long equities given the normal seasonal strength through year-end with that continuing through January. However the stock market has shown how sensitive it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1997798455880892638)  2025-12-07T22:40Z 120.8K followers, 69K engagements


"Last wk S&P -0.6% Mag7 -2.0% AI index -3.7% but EW S&P +0.7% & R2K +1.2%. Fed starting QE light sparked S&P rally on 12/10. S&P edged higher on 12/11 despite $ORCL -11% on poor results but was hit hard on 12/12 w/ $AVGO -11% despite ostensibly beat & raise results. The $GOOGL related companies declined 4% last wk driven by the decline in Broadcom while the OpenAI related companies declined 7% driven by Oracle. The reaction to the Broadcom results were particularly disheartening following the lowered bar set by Oracle results the prior day. Oracle 1) missed total revs & cloud expectations for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2000336614254383132)  2025-12-14T22:46Z 121K followers, 55.7K engagements


"While on the surface today was a horrible day for the AI names with both the $GOOGL & OpenAI complex down 4%; there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY both down 4-5%. If $MU a leading high-bandwidth memory supplier manages to rally tomorrow in response to spectacular guidance (EPS guided 76% above consensus and revs guided 31% above) this may be at least a short-term tradeable bottom for the market into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2001445692212916726)  2025-12-18T00:13Z 121K followers, 136.1K engagements


"@jprecept @CNBC @davidfaber @SaraEisen Zebra Tech $ZBRA is involved with RFID mainly as the market share leader in readers but RFID is only a mid-single digit % of total revs for them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2006456879053173057)  2025-12-31T20:06Z 121K followers, [----] engagements


"While I started the year with cash as my leading pick and no Magnificent [--] names on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled Might see a short-term bounce but still cautious long-term says investor Dan Niles. On April 9th the [--] day pushback on tariffs as President Trump became concerned enough by the bond market and fears of a recession helped drive a one day 9.5% rally. Since then hopes of [--] trade deals in [--] days has helped maintain the optimism. The S&P is now down just 6% from the beginning of the year and 3% from the day before Liberation Day. But does the political climate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1916657394521919622)  2025-04-28T00:55Z 121K followers, 154.7K engagements


"My [----] Top [--] Picks have defense & offense: $CSCO Keep Riding the AI wave corporate upgrade cycle $BA I love big backlogs I cannot lie & ramping cash flow $NKE Just Do It-Turnaround w/ depressed multiple & EPS $AAPL Better Late than Never- AI enabled foldable iPhone $PI The time has come- RFID tech at an inflection point I will put out a more detailed write-up on each name this Sunday as well as the overall positive and negatives I see for the market as a whole. I wanted to keep this post shorter given my @CNBC interview on New Years Eve with @davidfaber and @saraeisen got into each name in a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2006806598132576579)  2026-01-01T19:15Z 121K followers, 268.1K engagements


"More Details on My [----] Top [--] Picks & Outlook for a Choppy [----] The biggest positive entering [----] is the continuation of easy money policies. The stock market has seen strong appreciation over the past three calendar years with the Fed stopping the most aggressive rate hikes in over [--] years in [----] then cutting in [----] and again in late [----]. The S&P has seen price appreciation of 78% over the past three calendar years as a results despite EPS only growing by 20%. The Fed started QE light in December of [----] and a new Fed Chairman will be appointed in May of [----] who will want to cut rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2007922485472423993)  2026-01-04T21:10Z 121K followers, 93.9K engagements


"The shift since late October continued this past wk from large to small (Mag7 -2.1% R2K +2.0%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P -0.4% EW S&P 0.7%). From 10/29/25-1/16/26: Mag7 -4.2% R2K +7.8% S&P +0.7% and EW S&P +5.7%. I previewed last Sunday (1/11/26) that I was concerned about the unofficial start of earnings seasons with the big banks especially given the momentum coming in with the $KBWB +29% in [----] and the President's call for a 10% interest rate cap on credit cards for a year. Unfortunately this turned out to be the case with the $KBWB -1.7% last week and the financial subsector"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2013349738968498647)  2026-01-19T20:35Z 121K followers, 43.9K engagements


"Going into Mag7 earnings which start next week it is important to remember that [--] of the [--] underperformed the S&P last year and without GOOGL +65% the average would have been below the S&P return for the other six. This year [--] of the [--] are down YTD and as a group are down 0.5%. This compares to a 1.0% gain in the S&P 3.8% gain in the EW S&P and 7.5% gain in the R2K. There has been a distinct shift from concentrated to diversified and large to small since late October as investors started to differentiate between winners and losers in AI. It would not surprised me to see that continue. For the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2015540259753177337)  2026-01-25T21:40Z 121K followers, 87.6K engagements


"The shift since late October continued in the month of January from large to small (Mag7 +0.4% R2K +5.3%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P +1.4% EW S&P 3.4%). From 10/29/25-1/31/26: Mag7 -2.3% R2K +5.2% S&P +0.7% and EW S&P +5.2%. Big picture the Fed started QE light in December tax benefits from the OBBB are in Q1 and newly nominated Fed chair Warsh will want more aggressive rate cuts than current chair Powell. I would expect the current year to start off on a solid note driven by easy money policies as result. However I continue to believe that diversification is important and that there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2018063711089356814)  2026-02-01T20:47Z 121K followers, 60.4K engagements


"2026 Top5 Pick $PI after pre-announcing a better Q4 than expected on 1/13 before presenting at an investor conference the next day formally reported. Their Q1 guide was a huge miss: rev/EPS mid-pts $72.5M/10.5c consensus $90.5M/39c. Given the positive pre-announcement the guide is a huge disappointment. Now the question becomes whether my core thesis is broken and should I remove it from my Top5 Picks. It unfortunately has happened to me before. In the case of Impinj I do not think so. The issues seemed to be caused by a confluence of order timing ongoing retailer inventory burndown product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2019637784118469099)  2026-02-06T05:02Z 121K followers, 33.5K engagements


"$TSM reported rev for Jan was +37% y/y. This is an acceleration from Dec +20% Nov +24% and Oct +17%. Following AI hyperscaler capex estimates following Q4 earnings being revised from 25-30% to 60% for CY26 this is supportive of $NVDA & $AVGO CQ4 earnings results coming soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/2021228127456813236)  2026-02-10T14:21Z 121K followers, 45.2K engagements


"Expecting short-term digestion & then typical Santa rally but my long-term views unchanged on sticky inflation earnings cuts & multiple compression in [----]. I still expect S&P to break to new lows during upcoming recession. Stay nimble. Talk about a stock-ing stuffer 🎁 Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles predicts we could see a market rally between now and Christmas but he's less optimistic about cloud and software stocks as companies cut costs heading into next year. https://t.co/ZajkAKzilG Talk about a stock-ing stuffer 🎁 Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles predicts we could see a market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1599859915597967361)  2022-12-05T20:15Z 121K followers, [---] engagements


"On w/ @BeckyQuick at 8:50 AM ET on my thoughts & Top [--] Picks for [----]. Cash remains our favorite but a commodity defensive tech & financial also chosen. Flexible thinking will be the key in [----] When the facts change I change my mind - what do you do sir- Keynes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1610265068310237185)  2023-01-03T13:21Z 121K followers, 303.6K engagements


"For those of you who are interested in our Top [--] picks and outlook for [----]. http://danniles.com/articles/2023-01-03-1 On w/ @BeckyQuick at 8:50 AM ET on my thoughts & Top [--] Picks for [----]. Cash remains our favorite but a commodity defensive tech & financial also chosen. Flexible thinking will be the key in [----] When the facts change I change my mind - what do you do sir- Keynes http://danniles.com/articles/2023-01-03-1 On w/ @BeckyQuick at 8:50 AM ET on my thoughts & Top [--] Picks for [----]. Cash remains our favorite but a commodity defensive tech & financial also chosen. Flexible thinking will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1610439418921521152)  2023-01-04T00:54Z 121K followers, 191.1K engagements


"$META -64% last yr w/ PE S&P but CY23 EPS went up post results. $GOOGL $AMZN $AAPL had less stock drop in [----] above mkt PE & EPS coming down for all. Believe S&P rally near end & next 5-10% is lower. During tech bubble bust lost 49% & GFC 57% while having [--] rallies of 18-21%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1621507624520003585)  2023-02-03T13:55Z 121K followers, 130.2K engagements


"Bought basket of oil linked names today. Post Russia invasion US tapped Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is now at the lowest levels since [----]. Plans were to refill at $70 w/ WTI at $68 today. China 2nd largest oil buyer exiting zero-Covid also increases future demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1636179682046664706)  2023-03-16T01:36Z 121K followers, 104K engagements


"Sold $MSFT at $348 in the aftermarket as discussed w/ @SullyCNBC. Azure growth slowed from 31% in CQ1 to 27% in Q2 & guide 26-27% for Q3. Sold $AMZN at $129 given implications for $AWS. May buy $AMZN back before results on 8/3 given I owned it for their retail biz despite AWS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1684015899102314496)  2023-07-26T01:40Z 121K followers, 209.1K engagements


"Bond mkt stabilizing. Covering over half our shorts today. Expecting ST bounce next wk. Buying names we cut back that surged into earnings (normal risk management). Doubling $META position. $AMZN largest position. Buying $APPL for high probability trade into nxt iPhone launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1692581872625398214)  2023-08-18T16:58Z 121K followers, 251.2K engagements


"Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high probability trade on 8/18/23 going into IP15 launch stock is +9% vs +3% S&P. Starting to sell position given Huaweis breakthrough w/ their 7nm processor for new Mate60 Pro. Plan to be short $AAPL near IP15 launch. https://www.danniles.com/articles/08-20-23 https://www.danniles.com/articles/08-20-23"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1699412515976004062)  2023-09-06T13:21Z 121K followers, 464.6K engagements


"Sold $AAPL & now our largest single stock short. Believe 1) China (19% of rev) ban expanding to SOEs 2) Huawei resurgence 3) student loan repayment restart 4) CQ3 being 4th down y/y rev qtr in a row will force investors to question 29x CY23 PE w/ no major AI play vs S&P at 21x. Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high probability trade on 8/18/23 going into IP15 launch stock is +9% vs +3% S&P. Starting to sell position given Huaweis breakthrough w/ their 7nm processor for new Mate60 Pro. Plan to be short $AAPL near IP15 launch. https://t.co/JdEeibRl52 Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1699772668873216461)  2023-09-07T13:12Z 121K followers, 436K engagements


"Covering most remaining shorts today. Rising probability of NT bounce for S&P. Plan to reshort higher given LT concerns: 1) lagged rate hike impact 2) inflation & Fed staying higher for longer 3) higher oil 4) Q4 consumer stress from loan repayment restart 5) high valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1706751020901318685)  2023-09-26T19:22Z 121K followers, 135.6K engagements


"S&P +2.5% from 10/3-10/9 & no longer oversold. We cut our aggressive net exposure today from nearly 80% today & added shorts. The conflict in the ME could expand & want to see if investors shift money w/ US bond mkt open again tomorrow. @SquawkCNBC 8:45am ET 10/10/23 to discuss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1711565281083224463)  2023-10-10T02:12Z 121K followers, 87K engagements


"I will be on @CNBC show Last Call with @SullyCNBC at 7pm ET recapping tech earnings and my thoughts going forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1717672544235622545)  2023-10-26T22:40Z 121K followers, 161.1K engagements


"Magnificent [--] recap: 1) we own $MSFT & $NVDA for AI 2) covered shorts in $TSLA (earlier) & $AAPL today but looking to reshort higher 3) no position in $META but looking to buy 4) sold $GOOGL 5) own $AMZN for surging profits. Covered shorts now 1% of assets for oversold rally. I will be on @CNBC show Last Call with @SullyCNBC at 7pm ET recapping tech earnings and my thoughts going forward. I will be on @CNBC show Last Call with @SullyCNBC at 7pm ET recapping tech earnings and my thoughts going forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1717723761586397499)  2023-10-27T02:03Z 121K followers, 140.2K engagements


"W/ WTI $70 buying related ETFs today. Either oil prices are correct (there is an economic demand problem) or equity markets are correct (there is no problem.) OPEC+ likely to be supportive at these levels w/ US likely to have interest in refilling the SPR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1732510436740743178)  2023-12-06T21:20Z 121K followers, 174.6K engagements


"Powell: The reason you wouldn't wait to get to 2% (inflation) to cut rates is that would be too late. Believe any further FOMO/seasonal driven gains from very overbought levels to YE will be from unloved sectors. Today Magnificent7 +0.7% Nasdaq/S&P +1.4% but R2K +3.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1735080926127005947)  2023-12-13T23:35Z 121K followers, 199.3K engagements


"Here is a link to the interview. Initial Top [--] Picks for 2024: $AMZN $META $TXN $XBI $KWEB. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iz9oqCcVXUE On @SquawkCNBC shortly at 8:45am ET. We will be discussing our Top [--] Picks for [----]. It includes two of the Magnificent [--] two sector ETFs that have been massive underperformers not only in [----] but also over the past [--] years & one semiconductor name due for upward revaluation. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iz9oqCcVXUE On @SquawkCNBC shortly at 8:45am ET. We will be discussing our Top [--] Picks for [----]. It includes two of the Magnificent [--] two sector ETFs that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1742279526938497229)  2024-01-02T20:19Z 121K followers, 563.7K engagements


"Top [--] Pick [----] $KWEB (China Internet ETF)- This is probably our riskiest pick but the one with the most valuation upside provided that Chinas economic woes lead to a better regulatory environment in the future following three years of punishment. On the surface the China internet sector seems have minimal hope right now. Chinas economy continues to be sluggish under the weight of bad debt issues in their property market which is roughly 30% of GDP. But Chinas President Xi believes too much welfare "encourages laziness" and he advised Chinese young people facing high unemployment to eat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1742576217948315698)  2024-01-03T15:58Z 121K followers, 153.6K engagements


"While we are skeptical as to cryptos merits as a currency (except for 3rd world countries & illicit transactions) the SEC approval of [--] ETFs makes it an investable asset class. Not sure sell the news reaction is over but starting to buy ETFs w/ halving event coming in April"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1747351362726474205)  2024-01-16T20:13Z 121K followers, 136.8K engagements


"S&P at overbought levels into potentially disruptive events this wk: 1) Treasury auction 2) Fed mtg 3) $10T+ in mkt cap of Mag7 results. Over past yr only [--] of [--] earnings reactions have been up for [--] of Mag7 reporting this wk despite huge rally. Goal to protect profits this wk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1752105402404343848)  2024-01-29T23:04Z 121K followers, 99.3K engagements


"$AMZN profit margins higher than expected again while revs also beat. AWS rev growth accelerated for first time since [----] & should continue to improve. New high margin rev stream of ads on Prime Video just started on 1/29. We believe GAAP EPS can roughly double by [----] from 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1753218079201567191)  2024-02-02T00:45Z 121K followers, 64.5K engagements


"Managing our risk & covered $AAPL short & getting long. Our data analytics gives high probability to ST bounce. Looking to sell/reshort given downside over LT: 1) Huawei resurgence 2) no foldables 3) no AI on smartphones 4) minimal rev growth 5) 27x CY24 PE vs 21x for S&P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1760018871833240055)  2024-02-20T19:09Z 121K followers, 169K engagements


"Stock market has ignored rising oil & bond yields all year but was yesterday a warning sign This makes reaction to NFP on Friday & start of earnings season next wk that much more important. Misses (such as with $TSLA deliveries yesterday) are likely to be punished unlike in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1775514403829383394)  2024-04-03T13:23Z 121K followers, 118.9K engagements


"With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday I thought it worthwhile to lay out my thoughts both near-term and longer-term depending on your time horizon. My belief is that over the next 3-4 years Nvidia revenues are likely to roughly triple from current levels with the stock roughly doubling. However before year-end we may be near a digestion phase for the amounts spent on AI over the past [--] years since the launch of ChatGPT in late [----]. In this regard Sequoia which is a prominent VC investor in the AI space including a lead investor in the seed round for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1798714630933725691)  2024-06-06T13:52Z 121K followers, 584.8K engagements


"On 5/3 I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD about a likely AI driven iPhone replacement cycle. Since then positive datapoints have driven the stock to +17% YTD including: 1) Apple's estimated iPhone shipments in China surging 40% y/y in May 2) Apple Intelligence (their AI Offering introduced at WWDC on 6/10) needing at least an iPhone [--] Pro to run on their phones; and 3) unconfirmed industry reports of increasing iPhone chip orders from Apple to $TSM. Today HonHai Apples iPhone manufacturer posted quarterly revenues +19% y/y versus -10% last quarter and -14% one year ago. I remain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1809313081991766072)  2024-07-05T19:47Z 121K followers, 276.6K engagements


"Today can be filed under be careful what you wish for. CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May [----] which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the market. This is best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell [----] rose (+3.6%). Looking forward into tech earnings season which starts in earnest next week with mega cap starting the week after I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1811514032027009502)  2024-07-11T21:32Z 121K followers, 259.8K engagements


"One of my investing rules is Do NOT fight the hard battles. Likely Republican gains in upcoming US elections probably drives tariffs on China higher. As a result I am replacing $KWEB (China Internet ETF+3% YTD) as a Top [--] Pick w/ $AAPL on an AI driven iPhone upgrade cycle. On 5/3 I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD about a likely AI driven iPhone replacement cycle. Since then positive datapoints have driven the stock to +17% YTD including: 1) Apple's estimated iPhone shipments in China surging 40% y/y in May 2) Apple Intelligence (their AI On 5/3 I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1812951278215114875)  2024-07-15T20:44Z 121K followers, 112.1K engagements


"I enjoyed my discussion early today with @JoeSquawk on @SquawkCNBC around the Magnificent [--] results so far and my thoughts going forward. Below are some details: Be Careful What You Wish For On July 11th I wrote Be careful what you wish for. CPI for June had come down 0.1% from May which was the first decline since May [----] spurring hopes of earlier and more Fed cuts. Unfortunately this also resulted in a violent rotation within the market on that day. This was best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell [----] rose (+3.6%). In"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1819354767744696665)  2024-08-02T12:49Z 121K followers, 85.4K engagements


"With economic data continuing to weaken the selloff in AI related names following poor result and the unwind of the yen carry trade this morning August 5th the Vix (volatility index) was at an incredibly high [--] following a 12% selloff in the Japan stock market. The Vix has only been higher during the Global Financial Crisis and Covid. The Vix along with some other technical metrics I follow became oversold which to me indicates the odds are high we saw the short-term lows for the equity markets at the lows on Monday. However the one potential event I worry about leading to new lows is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1820612261284880614)  2024-08-06T00:06Z 121K followers, 293.6K engagements


"While I posted about a high probability of an oversold bounce following the 3% decline of the S&P on 8/5 I believe it is prudent to get more conservative following the recent rally that has erased all of those losses. Two yrs ago Russia waited to invade Ukraine till after the winter Olympics in China were over. I believe Iran could also be waiting to attack Israel till everyone returns home from the Olympics in France. Given the weaker than expected guidance from many of the AI driven Magnificent [--] names and the incremental weakening in consumer demand seen when Q2 results were reported"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1823051082463117513)  2024-08-12T17:37Z 121K followers, 161.9K engagements


"Clearly I was not expecting last weeks rally which was driven by: 1) no financial fallout (eg LTCM during Russian ruble devaluation in 1998) despite hedge funds switching positioning on the yen to net long from massively short for the first time since [----] according to the CFTC 2) de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East despite my belief of the increased potential for strikes by Iran against Israel after the end of the Olympics 3) inflation data that continues to point lower (PPI & CPI) 4) solid economic data points both macro (retail sales) and company specific such as $CSCO & $WMT."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1825541860367986915)  2024-08-19T14:34Z 121K followers, 72.6K engagements


"Powells speech today is bullish for risk assets through year-end. It is less hedged than expected and leaves the door open for rapid cuts in rates with no use of the word "gradual." The important parts of the speech: My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to [--] percentWe do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1826993958263631959)  2024-08-23T14:44Z 121K followers, 137.9K engagements


"Following $NVDAs results today I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated My plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections. AI landscape today compared to the internet in the late 1990s: [--]. During the internet infrastructure buildout $CSCO revs increased 15.5x over [--] years from the end of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1828949740949524794)  2024-08-29T00:16Z 121K followers, 284.8K engagements


"Expectations for $AAPL were for AI features to be able to drive 10%+ y/y growth in iPhone sales. If accurate very early indications are that sales are down 10%. As stated in Amaras Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." With Apples CY24 PE having expanded to 31x versus the S&P at 24x on AI expectations it is hard to argue for valuation support at current levels. A crucial trait for successful investing is admitting when you are wrong and moving on. I think I am wrong in the short run but have a feeling that I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1836030880118165552)  2024-09-17T13:14Z 121K followers, 86.9K engagements


"Dont Fight the Fed I look forward to discussing the importance of the Fed with @MorganLBrennan @JonFortt on @CNBC at 4:15PM ET today. Historically the market has struggled over the near-term when the Fed starts cutting rates. But whether the Fed cuts by [--] or [--] bps today and the immediate market reaction is up or down I believe loses track of the bigger picture. The Fed is cutting not in response to some crisis like Covid (2020) the Global Financial Crisis (2007) or Internet Bubble Bursting (2001) but because of a good reason. The Fed funds rate is over 5% while inflation (CPI/PCE) has come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1836409761920626981)  2024-09-18T14:19Z 121K followers, 157.2K engagements


"Dont Fight the Fed Following the supersized [--] bps rate cut on 9/18 the S&P closed at a new record all-time high on 9/19 surpassing the prior ATH on 7/16. My view continues to be that this is the first of many new ATHs given the market knows the Fed will be even more aggressive on any sign of economic trouble during its rate cutting cycle. Having said that I think the rally will be driven by a broader group of stocks versus the Magnificent [--]. Relative to the prior ATH on 7/16 the S&P was up 1% by Friday 9/20 but the Mag7 was down 3% while the equal weighted S&P was up 3%. Within the Mag7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1838229266539958645)  2024-09-23T14:49Z 121K followers, 87.2K engagements


"The S&P is up so far today despite 1) another rise in WTI oil to $75 on Middle East geopolitical fears going into the weekend & 2) a strong jobs report of 254K vs expectations of 150K that is crushing hopes for another [--] bps rate cut by the Fed & driving [--] yr yields up a large [--] bps currently. Focus instead seems to be on 1) the implication of the strong jobs report that the US economy (27% of global GDP) at only 4.1% unemployment is stronger than expected 2) optimism on China (17% of global GDP) stimulating consumption demand further & 3) the new premier of Japan (4% of Global GDP)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1842275266938249609)  2024-10-04T18:47Z 121K followers, 100K engagements


"I said on @CNBCOvertime yesterday that "I think with @Nvidia it's not going to surprise me to see that hit new all-time record highs before the end of the year." Today the Chairman of Hon Hai partner of Nvidia said that demand for Blackwell was crazy. This echoes the comments by Nvidias CEO on 10/2 that demand was insane. AI buildout compared to the internet in the late 1990s: [--]. During the internet infrastructure buildout $CSCO revs increased 15.5x over [--] years from the end of [----] when Netscape Navigator (the first mass internet browser) was introduced to its peak and Ciscos stock rose"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1843718338138014092)  2024-10-08T18:21Z 121K followers, 95.4K engagements


"$ASML the first major semiconductor company to release results for Q3 and one of the most valuable technology companies in Europe reported a day early. The stock is down 16% intraday despite low expectations coming into these results and is now down about 4% YTD. ASML guided [----] revenues to 30-35B vs consensus of 35.8B. This was driven by orders of only 2.6B in Q3 vs consensus of 5.4B. This is a reflection of how semiconductor device customers are thinking about demand in the future for the most advanced chips produced almost solely on the most advanced ASML EUV machines. As much as the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1846220139542262204)  2024-10-15T16:02Z 121K followers, 156.1K engagements


"The first of the Magnificent [--] $TSLA reported and as I just discussed with @jchatterleyCNN it was very good. As background Teslas stock hit a high of $410 on 11/4/2021 near the peak of the easy money hysteria with revenues growing 71% that year. It then collapsed to $108 on 1/3/23 during the aggressive rate hiking cycle of the Fed combined with the slowing in EV demand. Today the stock has roughly doubled from its lows with the Fed stopping their rate hikes in [----] and cutting in [----]. Further global rate cuts over the next year should make all cars more affordable given most consumers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1849221074849878211)  2024-10-23T22:47Z 121K followers, 134.2K engagements


"$GOOGL reports Tuesday Wednesday is $META and $MSFT and Thursday is $AMZN and $AAPL. The ordering of reports I think is important with Google results setting expectations On Tuesday for many of the quarterly reports later in the week. $GOOGL Googles stock dropped 5% on 7/24 the day after reporting Q2 results that included a 3% miss on Youtube revenues and a cut to overall forward revenue estimates despite strong Google Cloud results. In addition unfavorable anti-trust court rulings & more concerns of share loss helped drive the stock down an additional 4% between 7/24 -10/25 versus the 7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1850895263797248296)  2024-10-28T13:39Z 121K followers, 79.3K engagements


"Thoughts following the Election Dont overcomplicate things stay bullish. A short-term pullback would be statistically probable given the surge following the election to technically short-term overbought levels. However I am looking to add risk on such an event given the bullish factors discussed below: [--]. During Trumps first term the S&P CAGR was 14% a. China & Europe have tariff headwinds b. US consumer staples probably lag on tariffs c. Less regulation is good for financials energy tech [--]. Dont Fight the Fed a. Fed started cutting w/ [--] bps w/ more cuts in [----] b. Neutral Fed Funds rate is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1855993022502101058)  2024-11-11T15:16Z 121K followers, 132.9K engagements


"S&P worked off overbought condition last wk & was up today despite Russia lowering the bar to use nuclear weapons. Still believe central bank rate cuts potential US tax cuts & deficits China stimulus favorable seasonality & deflationary AI benefits are supportive through YE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1858995852393804063)  2024-11-19T22:08Z 121K followers, 48.6K engagements


"The S&P was up 1.7% this past week despite: 1) Russia lowering the bar to use nuclear weapons 2) $NVDA (down 2.7% since reporting on Wednesday) guidance only 1-2% better on revenues and earnings relative to consensus. This market strength despite Russias nuclear stance and Nvidia guidance supports my belief that markets remain strong through year-end & into early [----] driven by: [--]. Trumps re-election: 1st term S&P CAGR was 14% a. Expectations for tax cuts & less regulation b. Deficit will initially go up from an already high 7-8% (largest for non-war time & non recessionary period) [--]. Dont"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1860871402754056569)  2024-11-25T02:21Z 121K followers, 73.1K engagements


"Over past [--] yrs there have been 16x when S&P YTD through Nov is 20%+. In those cases Dec is +1.9% & up 75% of the time vs any Dec of +1.5% & up 75%. Given the economy is strong & financial conditions are easy I believe history will rhyme to paraphrase Mark Twain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1863409616203211033)  2024-12-02T02:27Z 121K followers, 49.5K engagements


"PCE came in 0.1% lower than forecast driving down the dollar and treasury yields which had surged following the FOMC mtg on 12/18. W/ many oversold conditions & positive seasonality typical to end the yr I believe we saw the lows for December for the S&P this morning. I like small & mid-cap stocks as the best risk adjust way to participate versus the mega-cap tech stocks through year-end and into [----]. Earnings should grow for those combined sectors on average for the first time since [----] in [----] given the US first pro-growth policies of the incoming administration. These same policies are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1870143060342198459)  2024-12-20T16:23Z 121K followers, 58.4K engagements


"On @SquawkCNBC 8am Monday on my Top5 Picks for [----]. There is a combination of defense & offense given the potential outcomes for [----] are as wide as I can remember. The path of inflation (& therefore the Fed) I think is the key given I see a strong economy led by the consumer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1876082146756194704)  2025-01-06T01:43Z 121K followers, 197.6K engagements


"TOP [--] PICKS [----] It is not the strongest nor the most intelligent of species that survives but the one that is most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin. This is how I am thinking about [----]. As a reminder my Top [--] picks coming into [----] had a skew of defense and offense. Those were: $AMZN- Big margin leverage & share gainer in a recession $META- Reasonable valuation vs growth & AI beneficiary $TXN- Recovery play in semis & appreciation of fab strategy $XBI- Valuation tipping point & defensive in a recession $KWEB- After [--] yrs of punishment by China tide may be turning A year ago in my outlook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1876276523751088280)  2025-01-06T14:35Z 121K followers, 233.7K engagements


"DeepSeek is said to have trained a competitive open- sourced AI model for $6M. Innovations like Multi-Token Prediction & partial activation of Mixture of Experts are likely to be used by others to cut hardware costs dramatically in the future while helping drive the AI agent development sitting on top of it. For people who want more detail please see the video below by @dee_bosa : https://www.youtube.com/watchv=WEBiebbeNCA https://www.youtube.com/watchv=WEBiebbeNCA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1882880730792857952)  2025-01-24T19:58Z 121K followers, 180.4K engagements


"ROI on AI capex was already being questioned. Now with DeepSeek investors care. Summary: I continue to believe there is an AI capex digestion phase in CY2025 and AI capex spending is going to grow 10-20% versus the 50-60% growth seen in CY2024. DeepSeeks recent R1 announcement of training it for $6M makes this case even more likely. Much of the below is excerpts for brevities sake from prior posts I have done on the AI capex topic. For those interested in more details please look at prior posts. Details: March 2024- Sequoia which is a prominent VC investor in the AI space including a lead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1884053677050146836)  2025-01-28T01:39Z 121K followers, 106.5K engagements


"$NVDA (-7% YTD through 2/28) gross margin guidance last week was yet another disappointing Mag7 (-6% YTD on average) report. But the bigger problem for me was the revenue miss by $CRM. They are the software poster child for agentic AI vendors that are supposed to benefit from all the AI capex spending by the hardware vendors. Ultimately ROI on AI industry capex is necessary. Bigger picture six of the seven Magnificent [--] companies had revenue estimates revised lower for CQ1:2025 when reporting CQ4:2024 results. And finally at the highest level there is still no killer app yet for consumers for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1896386505968325026)  2025-03-03T02:25Z 121K followers, 191.6K engagements


"I said in an interview around noon on tech stocks: Theyre getting to levels where Im probably going to force myself just based on the statistics to pick up some of the names Ive been sort of waiting for on the tech side where I thought they were overvalued and now theyve kind of come back in as some of these fears get discounted in the market. This was based on my own proprietary models with over [--] technical factors that were indicating near-term oversold levels for the overall market. In addition I use my own data analytics tool to help find statistically good individual stock opportunities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1897060621121654953)  2025-03-04T23:04Z 121K followers, 110.3K engagements


"While I expect a near-term rally given some of the oversold levels reached intra-day last week Q1 reporting season is likely to be challenging. At the beginning of the year I wrote My range of possible outcomes for [----] of +10%. to down 20%. is one of the widest I can remember. The ultimate outcome for [----] will be driven by: 1) Trump policy impact on inflation growth and the Fed 2) Is there an AI capex digestion by mid-year as I expect 3) Valuations being high and potential compression The ranges and concerns above for the S&P still reflect my view today for [----]. My [----] Top [--] picks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1898861541824536598)  2025-03-09T22:20Z 121K followers, 160.9K engagements


"Tomorrow will be an interesting test for the S&P. Will revenue estimates going up significantly for AI company $ORCL matter more to the stock market being driven lower by the major technology stocks or the first major datapoint on US consumer demand cracking by $DAL Oracle while missing revs/EPS for the quarter guided FY26 (May) revs to +15% (consensus 13%) & FY27 +20% (consensus 14%). This was the best outlook by far of the major hyperscalers after revenue estimates went lower for $AMZN $MSFT and $GOOGL following their results. Benefits from Oracles close ties to the current US government"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1899280376704401631)  2025-03-11T02:05Z 121K followers, 59.9K engagements


"The market hates uncertainty is an old Wall Street adage. If that is the case today is potentially the worst of it over the near-term with the S&P down again intra-day after yesterday testing the prior lows from 3/13 and reciprocal tariffs due tomorrow. Is 1) the greater certainty over tariffs tomorrow at 3PM regardless of how bad they are given all the mentions of Smoot-Hawley in the press and 2) the successful $40B capital raise by OpenAI today enough to ignite a mini rally over the near-term We will know soon enough. Even during the 49% S&P decline over [--] months following the internet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1907150742500118945)  2025-04-01T19:19Z 121K followers, 147.6K engagements


"During the recent sell-off 65% of the [--] technical metrics I cared about the most signaled oversold. Historically about 48% is what is needed to be statistically near a tradeable short-term bottom in the stock market. I also thought volatility would decline from the Vix index hitting [--] on Monday which implies over a 3% daily move per day for the next [--] days. While following the 6% bludgeoning on Friday the market saw more downside on Monday and Tuesday (1.8% further losses combined at the close and even more violent intra-day) that all changed today. I said in interviews earlier this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1910166280654455153)  2025-04-10T03:01Z 121K followers, 155.2K engagements


"This past week President Trump exemplified the quote by John Maynard Keynes: "When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do sir" During the recent sell-off 65% of the technical [--] metrics I cared about the most signaled oversold. Historically about 48% is what is needed to be near a tradeable short-term bottom in the stock market. It is important to note that this is not the absolute bottom for stock prices necessarily during a bear market. I also thought volatility would decline from the Vix index hitting [--] on Monday April 7th which implies over a 3% daily move per day for the next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1911768774564282681)  2025-04-14T13:09Z 121K followers, 73.8K engagements


"While I started the year with cash as my leading pick given my concerns entering the year on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled Might see a short-term bounce but still cautious long-term says investor Dan Niles. On April 9th the [--] day pushback on tariffs by President Trump helped drive a one day 9.5% rally. Since then better than feared guidance during earnings season and hopes of [--] trade deals in [--] days has helped keep the rally going. I wrote on the morning of April 22nd before $TSLA the first of the Magnificent [--] released results: Due to this pull-in of demand my belief is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1919186444301508709)  2025-05-05T00:24Z 121K followers, 113K engagements


"So far the turmoil in the S&P has been related to goods based tariffs. But the 100% tariff announced on films (where we are net exporters) produced overseas goes after services which are 70% of the economy. If tariffs spread to other services sectors this could get ugly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1919391436027334994)  2025-05-05T13:59Z 121K followers, 100.8K engagements


"Prior debt downgrades have been followed by S&P drops of 8-10%. In [----] inflation concerns drove 10yr yields to the highest in a decade. In [----] there were fears of a renewed EU debt crisis. Today tariff rollbacks is driving a pickup in the economy & the decline should be less. Details Moodys on Friday downgraded US debt from the highest rating joining the Fitch downgrade on 8/1/2023 and Standard & Poors on 8/5/2011. In looking at the most recent debt downgrade by Fitch the S&P500 had just rallied by 28% from 10/12/22 to 7/31/23 driven by the anticipation of the Fed going on hold. This came"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1924261985887096946)  2025-05-19T00:33Z 121K followers, 102.3K engagements


"Summary: While I remain somewhat bullish in the near-term I am wary of a significant sell-off as Thanksgiving approaches. I came into the year very negative which is why cash invested in money market funds yielding over 4% was my top pick. I became bullish in early April on oversold technical conditions for stocks. And now with the S&P up year-to-date on good Q1 earnings with demand being pulled forward as I suspected I see more choppy trading but with the possibility of new record highs. The risk versus reward seems to be roughly balanced in the near-term. The slightly positive tilt is from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1931882397907210710)  2025-06-09T01:13Z 121K followers, 91K engagements


"Mid Year Update I came into the year negative which is why cash in money market funds that yielded over 4% was my lead Top [--] Pick. Poor Q4:2024 earnings results during which six of the seven Magnificent [--] had forward revenue forecasts go down and volatility caused by tariffs punished stocks into early April. But on April 7th on CNBC Closing Bell I did a interview titled Might see a short-term bounce. While stocks closed even lower on April 8th the S&P then rallied 9.5% on April 9th on the [--] day tariff reprieve. The great thing about expecting a bear market rally or the start of the next bull"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1939481563147772037)  2025-06-30T00:30Z 121K followers, 103.2K engagements


"I remain bullish currently and today the S&P remains up slightly intra-day and near [--] week highs despite tariff threats on a slew of nations over the weekend. This was certainly not the reaction to ramped up tariff rhetoric through early April of this year. I pay attention to the reaction to the data more so than the actual data for my near-term views while the actual data shapes my longer-term views. This reaction today tells me there is probably still more upside with 1) a near record $7.1 trillion in money market funds up 15% y/y providing more buying power and 2) expectations of Fed rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1944828100002636090)  2025-07-14T18:35Z 121K followers, 111.6K engagements


"It is never the data it is the markets reaction to the data that is important. I think the tell for todays weakness in hindsight which fortunately is always perfect may have started on Wednesday when despite [--] Fed governors dissenting and wanting to cut rates the press conference was taken as bearish and the S&P closed slightly down for the day. Then yesterday the stock of AI darling $NVDA goes down 1% & the S&P declines from an up open to finish down 0.4% despite big Azure numbers from $MSFT driving their stock +4% and $META up 11% on using AI the best to run their business. This was the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1951366247448551682)  2025-08-01T19:35Z 121K followers, 82.6K engagements


"On @CNBC yesterday I reaffirmed my belief in the S&P continuing to melt up till Thanksgiving. Mkt optimism on three Fed rate cuts this yr starting in September are the main culprit especially after better than feared inflation data this morning. Other signs/fuel for irrational exuberance building include: [--]. Meme stocks are back- eg $AEO [--]. Hot IPOs are back- eg $FIG [--]. Bitcoin surged back above $120K [--]. Blank-check companies are back [--]. Every tariff deal done now set at 15-20% rates is being taken as positive [--]. the OBBB has tax benefits for future R&D and capex investment in AI As was seen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1955262740349513997)  2025-08-12T13:38Z 121K followers, 82.7K engagements


"The stock mkt bubble continued to inflate last wk as the S&P finds lagging sectors to rotate into (last wk healthcare was +5% & R2K +3%) despite signs of sticky PPI inflation & poor earnings from important companies in diverse areas: $AMAT $CAH $DE $TPR. A few tests loom this wk: 1) the central bankers mtg at Jackson Hole and 2) earnings from retail giants $TGT & $WMT. I continue to believe the mkt melts up till Thanksgiving with easy money addicted investors emboldened by signs at Jackson Hole of upcoming rate cuts. Despite important economic releases remaining such as PCE CPI and PPI before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1957207413062246780)  2025-08-17T22:26Z 121K followers, 141.1K engagements


"I wrote in a post last Sunday August 17th: I continue to believe the mkt melts up till Thanksgiving with easy money addicted investors emboldened by signs at Jackson Hole of upcoming rate cuts. Despite important economic releases remaining such as PCE CPI and PPI before the next Fed rate decision on 9/17 I believe the Fed will focus on whatever data they need to justify a cut. Powell did in fact signal rate cuts this past Friday and focused on employment over inflation. The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35K"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1959800905873682563)  2025-08-25T02:12Z 121K followers, 96.5K engagements


"I thought NVDA would report a very strong quarter and was more concerned about their China commentary. I was wrong. In reality they missed expectations of datacenter revs (though by just 1%) for the first time since the intro of ChatGPT in late [----] and beat overall rev expectations by just 1%. This is despite 1) a write-down in the prior qtr which reset expectations lower 2) taking the related H20 China revenue out of forecasts when they gave guidance for the July quarter [--] days ago and 3) actually selling $650 million of H20 in Q2 to an unrestricted customer outside of China. Nvidia did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1960866432213733861)  2025-08-28T00:46Z 121K followers, 140.2K engagements


"Terrific outcome for $GOOGL & $AAPL by extension Court remedy requires no spin-off of Chrome AND Google can keep paying Apple to be the default search engine. Googles multiple should expand to catch up to peers vs being at 21x vs the S&P at 24x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1963041019642990754)  2025-09-03T00:47Z 121K followers, 72.8K engagements


"August NFP was only 22K vs 77K estimate w/ June revised to -13K the worst since Dec-20. S&P futures rose on more certain rate cuts vs falling on slowing economy. Easy money continues to be #1 driver of mkt & I continue to believe it slowly melts up till at least Thanksgiving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1963956496770719801)  2025-09-05T13:24Z 121K followers, 56.9K engagements


"Prudent Irrational Exuberance I remain positioned for the S&P to slowly melt up between now and at least Thanksgiving with three Fed rate cuts likely by year-end. I expect the Fed Funds Rate to go from a range of 4.25-4.50% to 3.50-3.75% by year-end. This is where the two year treasury yields are which is a good guide post to where the FFR will ultimately go. Rate cuts are supported by the following: 1) Initial jobless claims were the highest in almost [--] yrs 2) Jobs were lost (13K) in Jun-2025 for 1st time since Dec-2020 3) 911K cut to payroll estimates for Last 12M ending Mar-2025 4) Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1967642827006902286)  2025-09-15T17:33Z 121K followers, 67.1K engagements


"Saw $AMD OpenAI news & thought I am so dead. $NVDA is going to be down big. But in bull markets all news is spun positively: this shows how much money needs to be spent on AI. Confirms my belief that mkt keeps going higher on more rate cuts solid Q3 earnings & AI optimism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1975302775933444419)  2025-10-06T20:50Z 121K followers, 62.5K engagements


"Right now I am positioned for the market to head to new highs before the holidays and the goal is to catch as much of this inflating AI bubble as possible. As Mae West said "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful" In an interview on Friday I said Unfortunately the market is going to keep melting higher and I wanted to expand on that statement. I said unfortunately because the higher the AI bubble takes stock valuations the more painful the decline is going to be ultimately for investors on the other side. Let me explain my current thoughts and why I remain positioned to hopefully benefit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1980000733597467131)  2025-10-19T19:58Z 121K followers, 301.4K engagements


"The Wall St. mantra of Dont Fight the Fed worked great during a global pandemic. Dont forget it works both ways. CPI +7.9% unemployment 3.6%. Expect multiple [--] bps hikes by Fed starting May 4th despite slowing growth taking mkt multiples lower. Beware of Q1 earnings season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1509928321714249728)  2022-04-01T16:18Z 121K followers, [---] engagements


"One tail risk into YE was another bank failure given the selloff in bonds since SVB failure. On Friday [--] of the biggest banks ($JPM $WFC $C $PNC) all exceeded expectations on EPS & NII. As important provisions for future losses were less than expected. Supports Q4 S&P rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1713969445083988318)  2023-10-16T17:25Z 121K followers, 79.6K engagements


"TOP [--] PICKS [----] As a reminder Our initial Top [--] picks coming into [----] had a skew of defense and offense. Those were: 1) $META Our favorite megacap w/ low valuation & growth 2) $MUFG Japan abandoning Yield Curve Control eventually 3) $URA resurgence in nuclear energy interest 4) $XLV- defensive pick in case of recession 5) Cash in 3-month T-bills which was the ultimate defensive pick Our Initial Top [--] Picks for [----] also have a mixture of defense and offense: 1) $AMZN- Big margin leverage & share gainer in a recession 2) $META- Reasonable valuation vs growth & AI beneficiary 3) $TXN-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1742572782276563434)  2024-01-03T15:45Z 121K followers, 160.5K engagements


"$META beat both revs & EPS driven by AI benefits but arguably more important for PE expansion instituted a dividend which implies future capital discipline. Trading at 22x CY24 PE w/ mid-teens rev growth vs S&P at 20x for 5% growth. Election coming which will drive growth in 2H"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1753205601868673381)  2024-02-01T23:56Z 121K followers, 55.2K engagements


"I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more supply available from $TSM. Given the stock is currently trading 15% below its [--] year average forward PE but expectations are EXTREMELY high I would expect a small positive reaction from the stock. AI landscape: If I compare the surge in spending on AI today to that of the internet in its early days: 1) From the launch of ChatGPT in late [----] through Q1 of [----] it has been roughly [--] quarters. Nvidia the enabler of Generative AI is expected to see its revenues increase over 4x from $6B (Oct qtr of 2022) to an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1792545762263359642)  2024-05-20T13:19Z 121K followers, 413.8K engagements


"The markets reaction to the start of the Q3 earnings season with the big bank results today is encouraging. $JPM and $WFC are up 5-6% despite both guiding net interest income lower as the market decided to focus instead on solid credit trends & investment banking results with better than expected share buybacks. As of mid-day Friday for the week the S&P is currently up 1% despite the Magnificent [--] down 1%. It is a positive sign that the breadth of the market continues to improve. It is also encouraging that the market performed this well for the week despite 1) oil being up 2% on geopolitical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1844767376174186553)  2024-10-11T15:49Z 121K followers, 178.8K engagements


"2025 Outlook for the Magnificent 7: The Easy Money Party Might be Over & the Stock Market Seems to Care A year ago in my outlook for [----] I said on CNBC and wrote on January 2nd: Looking into [----] we believe the S&P could gain another 20% (10% from earnings growth and another 10% from multiple expansion) if the Fed does in fact engineer the first soft landing since [----]. While my forecast was one of the most aggressive at the time following an up 24% year in [----] the Fed indeed seems to have pulled off a soft landing and the stock market gained 23% in [----]. A tag line for many of my articles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1874898587215118619)  2025-01-02T19:20Z 121K followers, 88.7K engagements


"I had concerns over the Mag7 to start the year. The six that have reported have had rev estimates revised lower for the March quarter. The three hyperscalers $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT all had cloud revs miss (albeit slightly) for Amazon. Eventually return on investment (ROI) and cash flow matters. As a result the Mag7 are down 0.2% on average to start the year vs the S&P up 2.5%. Five of the Mag7 are down YTD and without $META +22% YTD the average would be much worse. As for the health of AI spending contrary to the common take that AI capex forecasts were good for the semiconductor suppliers in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1888706229490557426)  2025-02-09T21:47Z 121K followers, 301.4K engagements


"Summary: While I believe this last week in March should be positive for the S&P given greater than normal pension fund rebalancing I believe Q1 earnings season will be rough as estimates get lowered. I doubt corporations in particular will be making major spending decisions with reciprocal tariffs looming on April 2nd. Given weak consumer confidence surveys consumer spending is also likely biased lower with recent airline industry negative pre-announcements a confirming datapoint. Unfortunately guidance disappointments have so far been met with continued selling in general despite lowered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1903977628157067620)  2025-03-24T01:10Z 121K followers, 257.8K engagements


"When I gave my Top5 Picks to start the year I led with cash invested in money market funds yielding over 4% and had no Magnificent [--] stocks on that list for the first time in years. My conservatism was driven by 1) the impact of new government policies 2) the S&P trading at a lofty 25x trailing PE and 3) fears of an AI digestion phase. As for government tariff policies which were much worse than I expected there is still time before these new tariffs kick in on April 5th for the baseline of 10% and April 9th for the extra tariffs on countries like China the EU and India. President Trump"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1907967547783168269)  2025-04-04T01:24Z 121K followers, 98.5K engagements


"Bond mkt is 20-30% bigger than stock mkt. Credit is the lifeblood of the economy. [--] bps rise in [--] & [--] yr yield in a tumultuous wk rivals issues during GFC. $USD from $110 in Jan to $100 increases losses for foreign investors. Worried something breaking if this continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1910724165151207642)  2025-04-11T15:58Z 121K followers, 135.1K engagements


"Eddy Cue of $AAPL commented that their own browser search was down in April for the first time. This confirms the trends that $GOOGL saw in Q1:25 where paid clicks were +2% y/y vs +5% in Q1:24 and +8% in Q1:23 the quarter after ChatGPT burst onto the scene at in late [----]. He also said that Apple is exploring adding AI search to its browser and that Perplexity and Anthropic could be options. I have said that either you believe the hundreds of billions spent on AI over the past two years does not matter or these other companies (eg OpenAI Anthropic Perplexity xAI etc) are going to take share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1920162710999679201)  2025-05-07T17:03Z 121K followers, 72.6K engagements


"On April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled Might see a short-term bounce but still cautious long-term says investor Dan Niles. The great thing about expecting a bear market rally or the start of the next bull market is the investment positioning is no different. Shorts are covered and longs are added in your most favorite names. On April 22nd I wrote Due to this pull-in of demand my belief is stocks on balance are likely to go up between now and the end of most significant earnings reports in early May. On April 27th I followed this up by writing on Nvidia: While their quarter ends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1922997614045249595)  2025-05-15T12:48Z 121K followers, 88.8K engagements


"When important stocks have massive one day moves I find it very interesting to see what related stocks are doing that day. I think most of us myself included would have thought if $ORCL was up 36% in reaction to staggering guidance most AI related names would have ripped higher also. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure compounded annual revenue growth was guided to 70% through [----]. Oracle was a Top5 Pick of mine back in [----] on the belief that OCI (growing over 100% y/y but only a low single digit percentage of revenues) could be a strong driver of demand in the future and Oracle could be in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1966198461654609999)  2025-09-11T17:53Z 121K followers, 73.1K engagements


"The OpenAI deal w/ $AVGO (+10% intraday) has Broadcoms competitors $NVDA $AMD $MRVL also up 1-5%. This reaction reinforces my belief that for now the mkt/AI names keep going to new highs given investors want to view this as confirming demand is enormous & everyone wins. The surge in the stocks related to the internet infrastructure buildout lasted over five years from when Netscape Navigator was introduced in late [----] to its peak in March of [----]. It has been less than three years since the world was introduced to ChatGPT in late [----]. Token generation is currently exploding with the recent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1977807243203530798)  2025-10-13T18:42Z 121K followers, 71.9K engagements


"Last wk S&P +1.9% Mag7 +2.5% R2K +2.5%. Wknd had good trade developments. Looking for mkt melt up to continue this wk driven by likely: 1) Fed cut & QT stop on Wed 2) solid earnings in aggregate from [--] of Mag7 on Wed&Thurs (25% of S&P) 3) positive Trump mtg w/ Xi on Thurs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1982591985115619358)  2025-10-26T23:35Z 121K followers, 170.1K engagements


"Events last week were roughly as I expected. 1) The Fed did cut w/ QT ending on 12/1. But a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion" which was the biggest surprise to me. The Fed up until now has called any upcoming inflation driven by tariffs transitory. End of the government shutdown with official data being produced again probably gives them the air cover they need to justify continuing cuts. But this rate cut pushback drove down the R2K by 1.4% for the wk. This index has a greater percentage of unprofitable companies and is therefore more sensitive to rate cuts versus their"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1985135922778656850)  2025-11-03T00:04Z 121K followers, 192.8K engagements


"This past wk did not go as I expected. A gap lower on Tuesday and 1.2% decline for the day for no apparent reason (this always concerns me when valuations are this high) was followed by more selling for the rest of the wk driven by: 1) OpenAI talking about a government backstop calling into question the nearly $1.5 trillion of infrastructure commitments they have made which drove down my AI index 5.9% for the wk the Mag7 by 3.2% and the S&P by 1.6% 2) stagflation concerns with the most Challenger job cuts in October since [----] with the highest ISM services prices paid number in three years 3)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DanielTNiles/status/1986954709077225879)  2025-11-08T00:31Z 121K followers, 167.4K engagements

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