#  @CurrencyWar1 Louis Curran Louis Curran posts on X about china, inflation, bitcoin, japan the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::128819708/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +696% - [--] Month [-----] -37% - [--] Months [------] +29% - [--] Year [------] -54% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::128819708/posts_active)  ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::128819708/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.32% - [--] Month [-----] +1.10% - [--] Months [-----] no change - [--] Year [-----] +3.80% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::128819708/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [japan](/topic/japan), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [euro](/topic/euro), [debt](/topic/debt), [$cny](/topic/$cny), [cbdc](/topic/cbdc), [fed](/topic/fed) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@jnordvig](/creator/undefined) [@merrionstreet](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@ustreasury](/creator/undefined) [@fiannafailparty](/creator/undefined) [@eucommission](/creator/undefined) [@lagarde](/creator/undefined) [@paulkrugman](/creator/undefined) [@politico](/creator/undefined) [@johnauthers](/creator/undefined) [@markets](/creator/undefined) [@robinbrooksiif](/creator/undefined) [@nytimes](/creator/undefined) [@wsj](/creator/undefined) [@secyellen](/creator/undefined) [@declanganley](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/$eth) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [TRIO (OrdinalsBot) (TRIO)](/topic/$trio) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "BITCOIN - JGB HEDGE Japan is trapped in a very bad place and is the G10 country that's closest to a full-blown debt crisis. Japan's only choice is to accept higher interest rates and a debt crisis or - if it caps yields - a depreciating Yen which is nearing its [----] lows. https://t.co/i8qyyg4BGo https://t.co/6OXN1l7X0j Japan is trapped in a very bad place and is the G10 country that's closest to a full-blown debt crisis. Japan's only choice is to accept higher interest rates and a debt crisis or - if it caps yields - a depreciating Yen which is nearing its [----] lows. https://t.co/i8qyyg4BGo" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2011265968870404233) 2026-01-14T02:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tour de Force 🔥 BREAKING: The White House just said Marco Rubio's blockbuster speech in Munich is getting MASSIVE PRAISE worldwide posting all [--] minutes of it Rubio dropped some absolutely incredible quotes in front of Europe. KEEP DEFENDING THE WEST MARCO https://t.co/pMySBduOLo 🔥 BREAKING: The White House just said Marco Rubio's blockbuster speech in Munich is getting MASSIVE PRAISE worldwide posting all [--] minutes of it Rubio dropped some absolutely incredible quotes in front of Europe. KEEP DEFENDING THE WEST MARCO https://t.co/pMySBduOLo" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2022966831867465882) 2026-02-15T09:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@robin_j_brooks I disagree with you both. China will never let RMB drop how can you be the safe haven alternate to unstable America. What they can do as they did after the failed deval in [----] is weaken the basket but that too is hardly moved since inception in [----]. Usd/Cny is slipping higher - CNY weakening but hardly dramatic. and he also shows the FX basket depreciating. most people just look at CNY wrt to the Dollar when China has been telling the world that it has been de-emphasizing its exposure to the US both in trade but also in their corresponding holding's of UST's. I've said" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1909420659752529965) 2025-04-08T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Mining Stocks on Cusp of Supercycle as AI Boom Stokes Metals ( Free Link ) Mining stocks look undervalued even after gaining nearly 90% since the start of [----] driven by the boom in robotics and data centers." [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2015203758985052330) 2026-01-24T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SullyCNBC Strike 3" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2017754581959053569) 2026-02-01T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "StableCoins - The tail wagging the dog New ECB Working Paper says Stablecoins increase the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy to Treasury yields "because changes in interest rates induce stablecoin issuers to adjust their bond holdings more aggressively". Also that "U.S. shocks transmit more forcefully abroad New ECB Working Paper says Stablecoins increase the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy to Treasury yields "because changes in interest rates induce stablecoin issuers to adjust their bond holdings more aggressively". Also that "U.S. shocks transmit more forcefully abroad" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2017756526786544126) 2026-02-01T00:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tour De Force Explanation Warsh [---]. Less debt-funded consumption. More investment-led growth. This article is right that people are focused on the wrong thing hawk vs dove. But it misses what the right thing is. A Warsh Fed isnt really about shrinking the Fed balance sheet. The real goal is shrinking the economys dependence on the federal governments balance sheet https://t.co/OVvGCe71XB This article is right that people are focused on the wrong thing hawk vs dove. But it misses what the right thing is. A Warsh Fed isnt really about shrinking the Fed balance sheet. The real goal is shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2018632109963751850) 2026-02-03T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@tphuang can we talk turkey on China/Japan" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2020678379234828340) 2026-02-09T01:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Even better JGBS our bond market your problem. Gold was a parking lot for chinas trade weighted surplus that rose [--] trio from 22-25. It was Chinas way of censuring USA for Pelosis Taipei escapade. Trump / Xi was all about Taiwan - rhe Chinese are now happy. As you point out CNY fixing and price action is telling you they buy into trumps stronger Asian FX narrative ( Yen & Korea will follow). Now that they are happy look at Oct [----] & Schumers trip. Look at what happened to bonds immediately after ( biggest move in 10s in [--] years and biggest rise in Chinas fx reserves in [--] months [--] weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2021134762870497349) 2026-02-10T08:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@pstAsiatech Paul - the Bloomberg article is hysterical click bait. See why here https://x.com/currencywar1/status/2021080727463383366s=46 China Bond Sales - IGNORE (2) @Brad_Setser & @jnordvig are the leading experts on capital flows. I highlighted this first thing today Only a few weeks ago Brad posted a thorough review of Chinas banking sector dollar purchases which doesnt tally with the fake news article from https://t.co/YXXxJ81A0k https://x.com/currencywar1/status/2021080727463383366s=46 China Bond Sales - IGNORE (2) @Brad_Setser & @jnordvig are the leading experts on capital flows. I" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2021138675711557997) 2026-02-10T08:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JessicaHoversen @gdp1985 this is the most important chart in stablecoins. Happy to discuss. Great article Jess" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2021327904437629067) 2026-02-10T20:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Brad_Setser Theyd much rather thy stopped buying gold and instead redeployed the surplus into the bond market which I hope well see on release of next TIC report. Oct [----] is what Im looking for" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2022458383920697457) 2026-02-13T23:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wang Yi / Rubio The ultimate WIN WIN- Will China come back to the US BOND market Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Wang Yi stated that President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have provided strategic guidance for the development of China-U.S. relations. We should work together to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state and make [----] a year in which China and the U.S. move toward mutual respect peaceful coexistence" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2022467271159869501) 2026-02-14T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Deflation is coming 🚨 @elonmusk & @CathieDWood Read both Watch both videos https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2022112266988949516s=12 Cathie Wood just identified the precise mechanism destroying the economys foundation: AI didnt change the game it eliminated the scarcity the entire game was designed around. Deflation is materializing in measurable ways. Truflation at 0.8%. Pepsi slashing prices 15%. Home https://t.co/hVDdJDI2XB https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2022112266988949516s=12 Cathie Wood just identified the precise mechanism destroying the economys foundation: AI didnt change the game it" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2022472978550620287) 2026-02-14T00:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BUY ASIAN FX Yen KRw and CNY Trump will thank you for it too Cheap currencies and large external surpluses are two reasons to think Asian exchange rates can appreciate. A third is the improving cycle. Thats true even in China where deflation is no longer worsening a change which in turn has slowed the pace of PBC easing. https://t.co/YYmvMPRpSa Cheap currencies and large external surpluses are two reasons to think Asian exchange rates can appreciate. A third is the improving cycle. Thats true even in China where deflation is no longer worsening a change which in turn has slowed the pace of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023159419668951263) 2026-02-15T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China gives up on state-backed digital cash: The US and Europe should take notefor different reasons https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/china-gives-state-backed-digital-cash-us-and-europe-should-take-note https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/china-gives-state-backed-digital-cash-us-and-europe-should-take-note" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023179374309359913) 2026-02-15T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Has #Crypto De-Coupling Begun $ETH breaks higher but #Bitcoin down. #Bitcoin washout 20k still on. $ETHBTC formation like Mar [--]. Big Q : can #BTC continue lower on regulatory/China driven washout while $Eth & Alts break away reversing parallel move w #BTC in past l2 months" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1410335624926842884) 2021-06-30T20:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CPI - Today one of the most important CPI numbers in years came in higher yet dollar related assets went the other way. No suprises $DXY at major resistance as was 2yr $USDCNY. If any nation fears rampant inflation and a stronger dollar its China. Did they buy $TLT & sell USD" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1448315223715295251) 2021-10-13T15:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$KWEB (China Tech ETF) collapsed. As foreigners exited 2Yr fx O/R $USDCNY moved lock step. PBOC has eased policy 3X in response -50bp RRR- 5bp MLR & increased $USD & $EUR weights in TW basket All Dovish $CNY. Digital $RMB 1mon away China selling $BTC to stop capital flight" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1479073009512165379) 2022-01-06T12:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Biggest Capital Flow Of Our LifefTime As $USDCNY hits [---] year lows just think of where it was [--] years ago #fx Flows to Chinese govies remained in a league of their own in [----]. Foreign investors increased their position by 30% compared to less than 5% in the average EM. Foreign holdings are still small in % GDP so we might see many more flows. w/ @econchart https://t.co/EKNY4iyvqA Flows to Chinese govies remained in a league of their own in [----]. Foreign investors increased their position by 30% compared to less than 5% in the average EM. Foreign holdings are still small in % GDP so we" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1485551258152972293) 2022-01-24T09:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Pivot Dollar #BTC chart : @jnordvig show's China huge #BTC seller since Nov '21. Why Credibility required strong $RMB pre-launch to ensure successBasket up 13% via $USD strength. This will reverse as China weakens CNY TW. Since Feb 4th ko despite tensions big NFP AHE" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1493631814677811200) 2022-02-15T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "& CPI $DXY has not recovered and is now the bogeyman. $USDCNY is moving lower bringing broad $USD with it. Reduced s/term Russia threat is helping risk assets but my view is weaker Dollar is key theme for markets w/ best way to play it: long $BTC $KWEB $NDX & short $DXY" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1493631819434102792) 2022-02-15T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China CNY Indicator Turns $RMB up .2% today taking out CPI AHE NFP and a bunch of other hawkish US numbers. Importantly $USDCNY [--] Year o/r turns also . CHINA REJECTS THE US TRADE REP S EVALUATION REPORT WHICH IT CLAIMS IS BASED ON UNILATERALISM AND TRADE PROTECTIONISM" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1494687887601901572) 2022-02-18T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China Home Bias; ( Japan Is Done ) $NKY $CNY $YEN Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the hills. On some products https://t.co/9oL0HsmImE Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1750715587355918742) 2024-01-26T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Deeper China-Saudi ties mean more yuan-based transactions ratings agency says - yuan-based oil trade faces significant challenges and may take decades to grow to a meaningful scale - but deepening Saudi-China ties and aligning long-term interests may help facilitate this process. - Talks of yuan-based oil trade often focus on the ability to pay in RMB but that alone is unlikely to boost its use. - the volume of such trades depends on oil exporters willingness to accept RMB for payment which depends on their ability to use the resulting proceeds. - As yuan is not broadly used in global trade" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1827715357932466250) 2024-08-25T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Chinas $1.3 trillion Exporter FX avalanche could lift $RMB as much as 10% according to Stephen Jen one of the worlds top FX strategists. Stephen Jen is one of the best Fx strategists Ive had the pleasure to meet. Ive always admired his work. In this article he basically highlights that Chinese Corps have parked their export proceeds outside of RMB. When the fed begins rate cuts Jen expects as much as $1.3 Trillion held offshore by corps will start to funnel back to China perhaps driving the RMB up yes up as much as 10%. I certainly believe CNY will appreciate contrary to most peoples" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1828599853380968911) 2024-08-28T01:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China Capital A/c Opening Draws a little closer. CHINA'S MINISTRY OF FINANCE TO RELEASE YUAN SOVEREIGN BONDS IN HONG KONG WITH HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY SCMP Editorial First it was Stock Connect. Then came Bond Connect. Now its Repo Connect. Well the last is not the official name but market insiders have taken to calling it that because it amounts to the same thing. It is part of a long-awaited last mile opening promised by Beijing last year to promote mainland bond liquidity ease capital controls internationalise the yuan and finally further promote Hong Kong as an offshore yuan hub.Using" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1889911413130645723) 2025-02-13T05:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Credible Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve = $50Bio. Funded in Gold Back-of-Envelope Estimate Gold to Hold: 241M ounces ($700B) is near current levelsrevalue to unlock $747B. BTC to Hold: [------] BTC ($54.5B) for credibility funded by selling 18.8M ounces (7% of gold $54.5B). Remaining Gold: 242.7M ounces ($703B) still above average benchmarks This is my conversation with Grok im trying to consider ways trump might fund the SBR. Riasing taxes or issuing bonds I feel would already threaten the very jumpy US bond markets where the US debt is above [--] Trillion and inflation expectations are at multi" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1896317435155812446) 2025-03-02T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Mrs Watanabe Earns 9% On [--] month $Yen Time Deposits" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1914694667972604058) 2025-04-22T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bollox The only player on the street big enough to move TWD is #PBOC. The lifers may have been involved but the trigger didn't come from them. PBOC have form. Look at what happened to $KRW when China put KRW in its FX basket. Look at what happened to gold when China started it CFETS basket. Now look at China's CFETS basket. It's breaking down just like it did in [----]. This is what the market simply doesnt understand - China and the United States both want a weaker dollar. I would suggest as evidenced by the comments from both the chinese and trump that some kind of deal is done. UsdCnh is" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1919458035279298776) 2025-05-05T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Japan's New Fin Minister ( Yen Fair Value 120-130) Katayama is historically biased toward Abe-style conservatism as a protg of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This manifests in: Fiscal Expansionism: She supports aggressive stimulus to counter slow growth and inflation aligning with Abe's "Abenomics" (monetary easing fiscal spending structural reforms). As finance chief she backs Takaichi's pivot to expansive budgets potentially funding regional revitalization and yen stabilization efforts. However she critiques unchecked spending drawing from her MoF roots in budget examination. Monetary" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1980624459896627405) 2025-10-21T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "AI is Killing Jobs US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades. "This comes as AI adoption softening consumer and corporate spending and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes: Challenger Gray & Christmas https://t.co/ixCLoKEuuN https://t.co/y0zmTmQDfa US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades. "This comes as AI adoption softening consumer and corporate spending and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes: Challenger Gray & Christmas https://t.co/ixCLoKEuuN https://t.co/y0zmTmQDfa" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1986410862882472193) 2025-11-06T12:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cc @vonderleyen @Lagarde AI plans = [--] migration = [---] Inflation = [---] War plans = [---] Game plan = No Plan The European car industry is going the way of Nokia in the cellphone industry. EU carmakers currently have zero to very little foothold in the electrification or even hybridization technologies. They have no competitive AI industry that's at the core of autonomous driving. The https://t.co/tZcW6ELqIn The European car industry is going the way of Nokia in the cellphone industry. EU carmakers currently have zero to very little foothold in the electrification or even hybridization" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1992010381120901280) 2025-11-21T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@elonmuskTN 67" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1994539308100038971) 2025-11-28T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China's Demographic Problem - It Ain't What You Think AI: "job loss decline in industrial capability a critical lesson for other developing economies." "At its peak around [----] (just before and after the global financial crisis) Chinas manufacturing sector employed about [---] million people. .Now were down to about [---] million. So over the past decade [---] million people have left manufacturing. Where did they go Mainly into the service sector." -- Sun Zhongwei China's manufacturing sector underwent a profound transformation during this period: MVA = Manufacturing Value Added Nominal MVA:" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1995961648088043922) 2025-12-02T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Economic and National security are = [--] JUST IN: US President Trump says "we need Greenland." "If you take a look at Greenland you have Russian and Chinese ships all over the place." https://t.co/2MaUOtZoMH JUST IN: US President Trump says "we need Greenland." "If you take a look at Greenland you have Russian and Chinese ships all over the place." https://t.co/2MaUOtZoMH" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008016842133221427) 2026-01-05T03:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tour De Force On China FX = @Brad_Setser Great work here from Brad and @paulkrugman this means as Paul Krugman notes in his latest substack the yuan is especially weak v any measure of long-term trend (the yuan should appreciate over time as China catches up to the advanced economies)/ China's trade fundamentals https://t.co/tSShtZOXxk 6/ https://t.co/YRDjRPXVLR this means as Paul Krugman notes in his latest substack the yuan is especially weak v any measure of long-term trend (the yuan should appreciate over time as China catches up to the advanced economies)/ China's trade fundamentals" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008171585694310407) 2026-01-05T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Apollo Torsten Slok & @_fedguy_ point to growing Bank Credit Growth. Bank credit growth surprisingly surged in [----] to the tune of $800b. Much of it went to shadow banks but it ultimately ends up in the real economy. That is a strong tailwind for [----] on top of tax refunds and maybe even more stimulus payments. https://t.co/rjmGGzLtEt Bank credit growth surprisingly surged in [----] to the tune of $800b. Much of it went to shadow banks but it ultimately ends up in the real economy. That is a strong tailwind for [----] on top of tax refunds and maybe even more stimulus payments." [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008201385737908522) 2026-01-05T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China's Property Weakness Drive's Weaker TW CNY For China the share of US imports and new housing starts are back to where they were at the start of the century https://t.co/dLOoiaUqlE For China the share of US imports and new housing starts are back to where they were at the start of the century https://t.co/dLOoiaUqlE" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008202965874872687) 2026-01-05T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Excellent Thread on CNY Sheng Songcheng who said in November that the correct exchange rate to balance Chinese and American consumers purchasing power might be as ☠ strong as five or even four yuan to the dollar. @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu @rhodium_group @Brad_Setser @CFR_org His comments echoed those of a former central bank official Sheng Songcheng who said in November that the correct exchange rate to balance Chinese and American consumers purchasing power might be as strong as five or even four yuan to the dollar. https://t.co/n6XrwpdLge @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu @rhodium_group @Brad_Setser" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008377245543391732) 2026-01-06T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China's Currency ( Trade Surplus ) Compensates For Disaster in Property sector Caixin: "Chinas revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in [----] from its [----] peak as a prolonged property downturn forced even state-backed investment vehicles to scale back. The extended slump highlights the deepening fiscal strain on regional authorities who have Caixin: "Chinas revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in [----] from its [----] peak as a prolonged property downturn forced even state-backed investment vehicles to scale back. The extended slump highlights the deepening fiscal" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2008544995863929132) 2026-01-06T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Powell HAs To Go ( ii ) i laid out (below) a case that Powell needs to resign. first of all he politicised his role interfered with Yellen in the electoral process and more than anything in holding off for [--] months before they responded to the biggest inflation surge in [--] years they not only got it wrong but gave China an easy win to pressurise the US with [--] year Trade Surpluses of [---] Trio Dollars. That senior Central Bankers 1st in the US and now across G10 are coming to his defence a) tells you how clueless they are as a group ( I note the politician Christine LaGarde was the 1st" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2011077905787347169) 2026-01-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fiscal Dominance - Yellen Warn's it's a significant risk blatantly ignoring the role her '' transient inflation '' and the resulting [--] month delay in raising interest rates had to play in the explosion in Debt Interest Cost. I believe as I lay out below that Powell was complicit in intervening in the electoral process with Yellen his major enabler holding off rate hikes when the inflation was hitting red lines. (see the damning charts ). Here is the FT Coverage of the story by @ChrisGiles_ Here is a snap shot of Yellen's delusional hypocrisy; Remarks by Janet L. Yellen on the future of the" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2011261072527790114) 2026-01-14T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@charliebilello ok - thats fair but lets go back to March [----] when inflation kicked off. China reacted and moved its FX Basket Stronger ( bought Dollars's as a result ) but the FED stood pat for [--] months. Can we game out the future from March 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2011797280886489537) 2026-01-15T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BOJ To Sell ETF's Bank of Japan said it will start selling its holdings of ETFs a project that may take more than a century if it proceeds at the currently planned pace https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/bank-of-japan-says-sales-of-its-etf-holdings-to-start-next-weekaccessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2ODU2NjEwNywiZXhwIjoxNzY5MTcwOTA3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUOFk0RkdUOTZPU0kwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTcwNzZGODlEODM0RUM5ODU0MkUwN0E2Qzk2QzgzOSJ9.y-C_I4IL4VNrHqIaPM9oCsrdoIKkvR_OGjrGfFkfBXU" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2012138444450070918) 2026-01-16T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China Demotes Japan Safe Haven Status. While much focus is on Japan's massive overseas holdings of foreign assets with holdings by China's private investors now nearly $8tn according to the latest available data from Chinas currency market regulator with growth of over $1tn in the first three quarters of [----] https://t.co/ZM4tsSqAMm While much focus is on Japan's massive overseas holdings of foreign assets with holdings by China's private investors now nearly $8tn according to the latest available data from Chinas currency market regulator with growth of over $1tn in the first three quarters" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2013118182400147515) 2026-01-19T05:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "JGB's : What Will It Break - SAFE HAVEN YEN🚨 Y'day China's FX fix was its strongest since March [--] while perversley the JGB market had another beat down. In a battle for global supreamacy or at the very least to minimise the Dollar's exoribant privilege it cannot be coincidental that Gold and CNH are highly correlated with the turmoil in the #JGB market. The Japanese PM would do well to look at the playbook in [--] Year yields post Pelosi's trip to Taipei. Bottom Line - Do Not *uck With One China Policy The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2013168439993520267) 2026-01-19T08:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bessent: Chinas Xi Trump could meet four times this year via @politico Very good equilibrium exist's and no-one want's to upset that. https://politi.co/3Nr321Q https://politi.co/3Nr321Q" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2014519259095810064) 2026-01-23T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "He - Li Feng - China Consumption Charge We never seek trade surplus on top of being the worlds factgory we hope to be the worlds market too Very clear message coming from China - Consumption Pivot Coming. This means strong CNY both vs the dollar and the basket - Inverted in Chart [--] https://x.com/clashreport/status/2013576240200827194s=20 https://x.com/clashreport/status/2013576240200827194s=20 China is prioritizing service consumption this year with a target to raise its share to 50% by 2030a 5ppt increase. We believe China can achieve this SHARE increase - like Japan in the 90s a shift from" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2014529113189413286) 2026-01-23T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A Day Late A Dollar Short. Takaichi trying to keep a lid on Japanese yields by saying the right things. We should be communicating that we are all for deficit reduction not consumption #Yen #JGB #fx" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2014696419576127880) 2026-01-23T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dollar Debasement" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2015207213757792316) 2026-01-24T23:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "🚨🚨 Most Frightening Week-End Chart Trumps inflation numbers show Americans cannot tolerate this. Yet as USD hegemony wanes - and this is accelerated by Europeans divesting of USD assets - this will get worse. It will be intolerable for Americans and may well lead to a discrediting of the system itself as we saw in the USSR. The whole American late liberal system relies on artificially high consumption via low prices propped up by USD hegemony. As that unwinds the legitimacy of the system unwinds with it. 🚨⚠AMERICANS CANNOT TOLERATE LOWER LIVING STANDARDS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2015455217257693514) 2026-01-25T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "not having a pop read my piece just published. It requires your unrivalled attention to detail to see where the bodies are burried but the bottom line is that I can see that Intervention is a hold over until tax changes encourage home bias and we need to get a handle on the numbers https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015920202446454950 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015920202446454950" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/2015920202446454950) 2026-01-26T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "concerning for europe today $DAX $EURO & $BUNDS all going down together" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/606775738830749696) 2015-06-05T10:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Fed thinks it is [----] all over again @GavynDavies Worth a Read https://www.ft.com/content/fbd53314-86d9-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2 https://www.ft.com/content/fbd53314-86d9-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1137998221395894272) 2019-06-10T08:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@hasufl Central bank interference with democracy ( wealth GAP ) has broken the trust of the people they serve" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1147909682985623552) 2019-07-07T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TuurDemeester If not retail Whom US/EU institutions long way from regulation 🚀 to get involved. Asian millennials esp Chinese still main holders. [--] reasons they hold. Offshoring & Trading-Adrenaline. All crypto threatens Chinas new #digital $CNY. Since launch Vol + $CNY/ $BTC corr" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1180256569960718336) 2019-10-04T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "IMPORTANT : Reports That The German CDU Caucus May Drop Black Zero - Schwartz Null aka Balanced Budget Goal Should The Economic Downturn Worsen - #Euro Pops Higher See This Chart - #Bunds Will Collapse #FX $EURUSD H/T@livesquawk" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1184353763483508739) 2019-10-16T06:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "BONDS WILL IMPLODE #BUNDS #USTR CN10Y JGB's & $USDCNY SENDING WARNINGS It all started with UDS/CNY & trade war. Chinese InflationPork May Be The Widow Maker. #macro #FX" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1188808251254571008) 2019-10-28T13:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Ocean Protocol I raised money for @oceanprotocol in [----]. IEO a disaster mostly b/c refused to pay ransom demands of Exchanges to pump token. Since then @trentmc0 working to reorg the tokenomics & partnering with Toyota J+J IBM Unilever BMW & GM Roche. [--] [--] watch" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1203926864655347712) 2019-12-09T06:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "NB: In August prompted by DCEP launch I argued $BTC [----] on grounds Yuan reserve #Fx status undermined via #bitcoin competition(outflows) which threatened $CNY sovereignty in [--] &now entailed retail longs b unwound. QED-China news dominated price since. DCEP test=Longs Out" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1204154229784367110) 2019-12-09T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Forget #QE L-End cap liquidity drop [--] $trio deficits. Q4 GDP. Horrible Chi PMI. #MMT fadism. $USD weaponisation. Credit obesity. Pillars key to reserve #fx legitimacy are No [--] above US ARMY the Rule of Law which bequeaths Authority & Legitimacy to govern is in wind. $BTC+" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1223278425466519552) 2020-01-31T16:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SantiagoAuFund Nasdaq 95/00 redux #warpspeed $DXY & $NSDQ rallied together then $ now + Chinas DCEP & #blockchain plan adding juice. #Tech #Digital will define winners & ilosers in a race to bottom. & have strategy & Brands but @EU does not. $ETH $SZSE $NADQ $EURUSD #Fx" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1227254236351610882) 2020-02-11T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Equity Markets A Signal For #Crypto #technology/ #Digital/ #Blockchain driving everything. China's DCEP the Engine & Blockchain the Caboose. Thin W/e markets exaggerated P/T when move should be contextualised vs $NSDQ 95/00. China's $SZSE up 3% today signals buy $BTC + $ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1229293316576964610) 2020-02-17T06:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@zhusu $SZSE tech sector relationship with $ETH pre virus and post virus Added to long $ETH here" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1234327975706841088) 2020-03-02T04:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CHINA GOES FISCAL (1) China to issue Special Treasury Bonds For 1st Time Since [----]. Are these bonds banks will buy or with DCEP (in testing) its all about financing China's Deficit. Could this lead to soft Cap A/c opening. $CNY Bullish & Bullish SZSE https://www.yuantalks.com/china-to-issue-special-treasury-bonds-for-third-time-on-record/ https://www.yuantalks.com/china-to-issue-special-treasury-bonds-for-third-time-on-record/" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1244611725069934593) 2020-03-30T13:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "to renegade access to the Feds Repo / Swap Lines. Its hardly consistent with emerging reserve currency status ( the whole point to keeping the Yuan stable in the first place ) if the PBOC has to rely on the FED liquidity to stabilize things. There is a reasonable chance China" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1247187268625780736) 2020-04-06T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "will have to let the Yuan weaken in line with the rest of Asian FX or see a massive draw down in their UST's to defend the Yuan. China can only hope and pray that the Fed's swap measures stabilize things and the dollar weakens form here. Looking back to [----] it doesn't look" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1247187269800194048) 2020-04-06T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Solve This : Stabilise Global Markets Comment - Yellen made the point that the fed learned lessons in [----] about acting early and aggressively re dollar liquidity provision. Im not sure well see like for like dollar upside this time. Essential for stocks that $ tops 👀Some demand for USD liquidity has been satiated through USD swaps but this does not solve the impending question of corporate deleveraging of USD borrowings abroad. -JPM https://t.co/qBFSfh2eBk 👀Some demand for USD liquidity has been satiated through USD swaps but this does not solve the impending question of corporate" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1248051752475201536) 2020-04-09T00:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "PBOC to test DCEP on 10CENT backed food giant Meituan This is the future of Crypto & Digital - PBOC creating a to ''mass adoption'' something that's eluded Digital/Crypto & fiat currencies bar dollar. [--] implications follow https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/china-to-expand-digital-yuan-test-to-food-delivery-giant-meituansref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/china-to-expand-digital-yuan-test-to-food-delivery-giant-meituansref=PHpzF5TU" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1283316791226142721) 2020-07-15T08:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1) #BTC is a direct competitor to DCEP. I maintain my view that China will not allow BTC space to breathe until DCEP is up and running. 2) Digitalisation will define Winners and Losers and China is out in front benefiting $CNY $SZSE dollar expense. here https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1281089408289009664s=20 USDCNH Leading the way for Broad Dollar Sell-Off See @ChrisWeston_PS note which reenforces my view ( attached ) #YuanStrong Nasdaq 95-00 Redux https://t.co/tkrvnmL9Yi https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1281089408289009664s=20 USDCNH Leading the way for Broad Dollar Sell-Off See" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1283316792505430017) 2020-07-15T08:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$BTC - to PBOC $BTC outflow pathway represents exestential threat to DCEP. PBOC Mu told us #BTC popularity in 2014/17 threatened $CNY sovereignty. Libra [---] bio wallets also neutered DCEP internationalisation pathway via consumer mass adoption. In short since DCEP came on the" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1291329748505751554) 2020-08-06T11:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$USDCHF & $NDNQ rallying in unison. SNB one of the largest foreign central bank holders of US equities saw an explosion in FX reserves in Q2. Dollar is cheap nice way to weaken Swissy ( helps Euro/chf also ) SNB selling Chf Last wk I showed how Euro despite neg $USD environment stalls randonly. I asked who wants to buy dollars now SNB & BOJ SNB FX Q2 reserves up big in Q2 as SNB buy $USDCHF. This keeps Euro offered. Today bidding UsdChf at .9050 caps Euro supports $EURCHF https://t.co/iqIk5Roz7j SNB selling Chf Last wk I showed how Euro despite neg $USD environment stalls randonly. I asked" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1291380441446879234) 2020-08-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "US Bank Deposits - Turning Tide Stocks at recent lows but uptick's in US10's. Real yields forcing unwinds in $XA etc. Signs of a real recovery Precautionary deposits ($2.4T) turning pushing up US yields. In [--] $USD fell as money went offshore. https://on.ft.com/3gP6EFr https://on.ft.com/3gP6EFr" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1293457286422130690) 2020-08-12T08:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ETH - $1500 China digitalisation XJP blockchain economy key macro theme. DCEP = @Apple store $ETH tech proxy with $USD debased. DCEP Launch - Winter Olympics - Feb [----]. Digitalisation today like Nasdaq 95/00: $DXY 50% $NDNQ 7X propels $ETH to old highs as $CNY back to lows" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1294367886497071104) 2020-08-14T20:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "RISK - Dollar Pivotal. $USDCNH capped at (Aug 3) trendline. Mar [--] lows beckon. [--]. $USDCNH weakness has hit broad dollar (See Euro) crushing VIX helping to lift #NASDAQ. [--]. In [----] $USD weakness crushes $VIX driving $NDNQ to a 65% bounce. My bet - Dollar & Vix Continue Lower" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1296462648561872899) 2020-08-20T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Over the last [--] years I have stated constantly that payment tokens are going to be the first casualty of China's International Retail Focused CBDC/DCEP PBOC DIGITAL CURRENCY CHIEF: RETAIL-FOCUSED CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY COULD PROVIDE BACKUP TO POPULAR MOBILE PAYMENT METHODS. PBOC DIGITAL CURRENCY CHIEF: RETAIL-FOCUSED CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY COULD PROVIDE BACKUP TO POPULAR MOBILE PAYMENT METHODS" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1375040234795196420) 2021-03-25T11:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Foreigners : Its Time To Buy US Bonds @johnauthers writes. ISM Peak normally signals Equity Market Top. Inflation Concerns fully Priced https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-06/stocks-nirvana-rests-on-investor-faith-in-fed-s-inflation-dovessref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-06/stocks-nirvana-rests-on-investor-faith-in-fed-s-inflation-dovessref=PHpzF5TU" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1379624402585849857) 2021-04-07T02:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Correlation & Safe Haven - China Govvie's - Title Contender : Treasuries role as a safe haven is not there anymore.There is an increasing possibility of using China bonds as an alternative.- Brandywine Every CIO is now allocating to China UBSAM https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/chinese-debt-becomes-an-unlikely-safe-haven-during-bond-turmoilsref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/chinese-debt-becomes-an-unlikely-safe-haven-during-bond-turmoilsref=PHpzF5TU" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1380057757802504192) 2021-04-08T07:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Basically - Ameroca has woken up to the risk that China's hypersonic weapon is not the only thing that China is dominating the US on. China's CBDC wlll be a game changer for the dollar Fiat in general and also traditional #crypto and #DEFI" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1481295767209975814) 2022-01-12T16:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "🛑Powell: "possible more than 1Reserve #Currency. US relinquish's Super Power Title - Powell confirms it. This prompts role of/exposure to #Dollar. It is good for & problematic for China. $CNY (TW) at 5yr highs- ($USD strength). #BTC positive at margin. CNY CBDC ++ On Your Own Newsflow & #SOTU clear: #Ukraine cant depend on West to enforce no fly zone. How does Taiwan feel. How does any nation holding US debt have any justification holding UST's now that America has given Russia a free pass on #genocide. Sanctions wont save lives. #BTC 150K https://t.co/ge2xM4Zh1c On Your Own Newsflow & #SOTU" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1499081536880193536) 2022-03-02T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why Are Stocks Rallying ( [--] ) $XAUCNY (Inverted) vs $SPX China selling gold to buy US stocks the last bout of global volatility ( Covid ) they bought SPX in March [----] Why Are Stocks Rallying China selling $XAUCNY which corelates with rising $SPX We saw this in March [----] and again last week. https://t.co/lA77heuOCM Why Are Stocks Rallying China selling $XAUCNY which corelates with rising $SPX We saw this in March [----] and again last week. https://t.co/lA77heuOCM" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1499085900260728833) 2022-03-02T18:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fiat & Gold are Dead. Long live $ETH & #BTC China needed strong FX pre CBDC launch at Olympics. USD/Gold strength contributed to CNY (TW) 17% jump from July [--] PBOC bought Gold at basket launch in Dec [--]. Recent TW RMB strngth despite Evergrande Tech Drop and Covid. Yen" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1508560354623766529) 2022-03-28T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Strong Dollar Is Now Our Problem Risk sold off aggressively Apr1 when PBOC signalled a y weaker #FX Fix reversing [--] 1/2 years of $CNY strength. The effects were dramatic. $SPX 15% $NDQ 20% $DXY 6.5% #BTC 40%. Y'day China signalled a stronger fix lifting risk via" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1524450576859385856) 2022-05-11T18:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yen came first look at relationship between Yen trade weighted and China's 18% apprecation of its own trading basket. If there was one country that China would like the CNY to displace its the Yen but the others are now following. Through out my career there were two markets" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1536804898574110725) 2022-06-14T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "that everyone talked about when #Armageddon would eventually come. $JGB + $BTP. The #BOJ lost control of YCC today with [--] year yields now above 25bp YCC target. It's noteworthy that Yen & JGBstrading closely. @Pentosh1 made some really valulable obervations on this theme" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1536804903640776707) 2022-06-14T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China Heavy Lift (ii) Is the China bounce starting to feed through to the US $ARKK bounces 9% today. You'll note $KWEB already ahead. $SPX was significant too. Could it be Commodities $GSCI drops 6% today. China Pork Prices cause inflation blowback which must be stopped. China Heavy Lift Commodities Topping CNY Stronger = Weaker Dollar Trade Deal In The Offing PBOC - '' Vigorous ''Stimulus Gov - Infrastructure Capex Risk Positive ++ https://t.co/oXr4z4N9wu China Heavy Lift Commodities Topping CNY Stronger = Weaker Dollar Trade Deal In The Offing PBOC - '' Vigorous ''Stimulus Gov -" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1544493332801413127) 2022-07-06T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China's real estate investment fell 6.4%(Jan-July) China's property sales by floor area slid by 23.1% (Jan-July) https://www.yuantalks.com/the-wire-live-updates-on-china-666/arena_mid=15OteM16r0P64EYR5Pdl&v=2 https://www.yuantalks.com/the-wire-live-updates-on-china-666/arena_mid=15OteM16r0P64EYR5Pdl&v=2" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1559294033112997889) 2022-08-15T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "43 Days & Counting (March [----] Redux ) In March [----] I noted a pattern of Asian Session Buying In $SPX that I picked up [--] weeks into a rally that took $SPX up 120%. That same pattern of Asian Session support and BID on US open is now [--] days counting and began jun [--]. See 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1559328362606247936) 2022-08-15T23:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CNY is now a tech Currency $CNY vs $KWEB $CNYUSD [--] Yr Fwd's Represent Chinese Capital Flows. They are turning and should drive #Bitcoin higher" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1615065453738528802) 2023-01-16T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#Binance Banking Partner Silvergate Will No Longer Process Retail Customers 100K. (2) Silvergate and Signature Suffering Huge Cash Withdrawls (WSJ) Crypto's main banks are borrowing cash from Tradfi instututions to meet customer withdrawls. Signature and Silvergate turn to government-chartered lenders after customer withdrawals surge. https://t.co/x6aisTkp2L Signature and Silvergate turn to government-chartered lenders after customer withdrawals surge. https://t.co/x6aisTkp2L" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1616960895879450624) 2023-01-22T00:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "''The Battle Has Been Won'' Crypto Currencies historically put as an alternative to Fiat money. That Battle Has Been Won. Tech doesnt make for trusted money. Historically Infrastructure behind CB's give great credibility. Tell how CB's are Credible with Inflation at [--] Yr High In the central banking arena we went from Bitcoin/crypto doesnt work to its a financial activity that could exist under certain conditions. More education needed but central bankers are learning about Bitcoin and stablecoins. 😉https://t.co/w5Rt0sO0tj In the central banking arena we went from Bitcoin/crypto doesnt work" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1629213323186081792) 2023-02-24T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "D'etente China / US (Part 2) 'Silly Balloon' Joe Biden has said he expects to see a thaw in US relations with Beijing Everything changed in terms of talking to one another. I think youre gonna see that begin to thaw very shortly Biden said. The Spy Balloon Was" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1660437047176318979) 2023-05-22T00:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "D'etente China / USA ( Part [--] ) Win Win or Be Careful For What You Wish For. China is on the ropes. Currency above [----] vs the dollar. Dead Cat bounce in property dector. Youth UE @ 20%+ Chip/Tech war compounds weakness in property sector. Elon Musk Warns The China /" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1661876083031957505) 2023-05-25T23:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "An Argument for Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1676807579551367169) 2023-07-06T04:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A $28 Billion Wave of Selling Pressure Imperils China Stocks Chinas stock market is facing a wave of selling as money locked up in stock funds matures via @markets" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1678445881278832640) 2023-07-10T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Stress Is Building in Chinas $12 Trillion Onshore Credit Market via @business" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1679085301333893120) 2023-07-12T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Institutional Investors shifting from China to India. Decided to try find some credible Indian commentary on foot of a Nikkei aricle I read. This is a new follow for me @Kanthan2030" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1688211297106538496) 2023-08-06T15:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Brad_Setser how about Mexico. Currency appreciation suggests China is in on the act there too" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1688669088497737728) 2023-08-07T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "DOOM LOOP - Jackson Hole Hot Take ☘ [--]. Strctural Upward Shift In Inflation [--]. Global Government Deficits Will Continue To Grow No playbook: policymakers face up to changing global economy at Jackson Hole Excellent Article" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1695957011773448323) 2023-08-28T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "⚠CHINA CONTROLS #Bitcoin For [--] years ( Check my Feed ) I've warned that there is one driver of #BTC. That driver is China Capital Flows & Associated PBOC/NDRC Policy Initiative's aimed at eliminating China's Perennial Achillies Heel; Capital Outflows. Thats why China's CBDC is so important. See [--] chart's attached. With China's Back To The Wall Its No Suprise Bitcoin trades heavy ( not to mention the Biden Administration's Attempt to Wreck The Crypto Space ) because China cannot afford to have huge outflows via Bitcoin. The worse the outlook for China The Worse It Will Be For Bitcoin. Here is" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1695994605957714301) 2023-08-28T02:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China Does A Double Double PBOC TO CUT FOREX RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1697423608656621869) 2023-09-01T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Incendiary Cocktail - Oil Saudi Aramco IPO and rising oil price. Why would Saudi want to cut production. 2s/10s popped yesterday despite a weak jolts and benign NFP / PCE in reaction to Oil which is on the march. Stocks gave up their gains. The we get news rhat China has cut its US bond position ( they could still hold stocks and agencies ) to [--] year lows. Not what you want when #Cbo warns about US fiscal spending which is simply out of control. You wouldnt want rating agencies to downgrade that debt - oh wait" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1697913293724123260) 2023-09-02T10:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RobinBrooksIIF is there any carry in MXN Japanese love a carry trade" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1698083738071048353) 2023-09-02T21:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JohnTrades_99 @himyeticapital this is the most important chart in capital markets" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1699526996798177331) 2023-09-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@WallStJesus @Trade_Haven overlay china's CFETS basket with this" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1701899890316455951) 2023-09-13T10:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The #Fed Is Done - #Powell used the words proceed carefully six times during his presser. He didnt sound to me like he was itching to hike again said Mike Feroli Chief Econ JPM My video echoes similar theme. Powell mentions how far weve come twice" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1704642470959518115) 2023-09-20T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This was deliberate. My view is that PBOC wants to be the new Bundesbank. Case in point - CNY CFETS rallies 17% thru 21/22. Why [--] reasons. E-CNY launches in Feb [--]. They cant have a repeat of Euro launch ( the only other reserve currency launched in last [---] years which collapsed on launch and required G7 intervention to rescue it). China was on its own. Personally I think they weaponised Covid and used it to establish Yuan credibility. Part of this process has been led by NDRC officials talking about dollar decoupling and calling out the profligate monetary and fiscal policies of the west" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1705500390161006979) 2023-09-23T08:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Regulators Ask If Your Pant's Are Down. Jamie Dimon prophesying and proselytizing 7% US interest rates is something we should not take lightly. When he links the metphor of a ebbing tide catching swimmers with out their swim short's he is of course referring to risk of higher interest rates. Yesterday was a perfect lesson and perhaps a signal of regime change. Then two stories from the FT which reflect the butt naked swimmers. Unsure of the exact implications but a shrper focus by regulators on illiquid valuations with trillions in illiquid asset's could cause a wave of liquidations across" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707368352056758713) 2023-09-28T12:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Gamechanger #AI OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture Masayoshi's Vision Fund ( aptly named ) loves AI and is an expert. He like Cathie Wood got caught up in China Tech and Crypto over the past 15-20 months. He is now partnering with the kind of team that will monetise the AI opportunity and allow him achieve his life long ambition to leave a legacy like Gates or jobs. Ai is only begining. Perhaps $NVDA is over priced but $ARM and $SOFT are a long term opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707384172115902756) 2023-09-28T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "do you think there is a chance they've actually started to contain the outflows. As the CBDC gains traction getting money out will become a huge probelm. for me US/CNY 2yr yield spead was a great proxy for capital outflows. Despite the huge move higher in rate differential's between them both 2Year speads have remained below key resistance for months. BItcoin was one of the previous outflow pathways but I think this pathway is firmly closed. What happens to China's BOP surplus when the outflows stop Fully agree they are stashing cash offshore. Nice work" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707489649269109064) 2023-09-28T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$USDYEN at [---] - Blame PBOC The Fed Began Hiking in March [--]. China began buying Dollar's in mid [----] well before the Fed began hiking. Why A) China knew an inflation shock was coming. B) To Show CNY "safe haven'' qualities with e-CNY launch in Feb [----] Winter Olympics concurrent with rising inflation in the west China began buying trillions of dollars as an inflation hedge no more so than against the Yen. Remember China was in the middle of a a Tech Wreck a Property Crises and Inflation outbreak in the West. Buying Dollars insulated them against the inflation shock and drove CNY CFETS up an" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707505694172156202) 2023-09-28T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🔴 JAPAN'S ECONOMY MINISTER SHINDO: JAPAN'S ECONOMY IS NO LONGER IN DEFLATION" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707635699002863819) 2023-09-29T05:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🧵- Why I think [---] Is The Top In $USDYEN Basically I think PBOC ( china ) weaponised/sold the Yen ( SOLD) during 2021/2022 to hedge themselves for rising inflation. ( see additional posts attached) How does buying Usd/Yen help China. Yen is atleast 10% of China trade weighted" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1707663666068275522) 2023-09-29T07:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "B O N D V I G I L A N T E 'S G A T H E R @paulkrugman @LHSummers @ Dimon @ Larry Fink @BillAckman #Powell have all raised their concerns about the risk to higher rates in the past few weeks with Jamie Dimon warning that we need to prepare for rates at 7%. Krugman gives a decent expose on the reasons why rates are rising thought he admits that he is still unsure what happens' next. Make up your own mind. 1) Are High Interest Rates the New Normal Krugman @nytimes 2) Americas Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes @WSJ 3) Summer's Slide [--] 4) Ackman Perhaps this is a reverse signal given" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1708255329899761985) 2023-09-30T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China Drive's The Dollar. ( Let's Hope It Stop's ) Chart [--] - what we want to avoid is a repeat of pattern A. Chart [--] - makes the case that China's activities with their FX reserves also impacted Global Bond Markets. See green Box [--] it shows a drop in China's FX reserves at the start of [----] coincides with a big dollar rally and more importantly a big push higher in US yields. what we dont want to happen is a continued liquidation by China of its Foreign Bond holdings repatriating to dollars" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1710865376286802398) 2023-10-08T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "America was asleep at the wheel. Jake Sullivan is a key architect of American National Security Policy. Instead of demonising China he should have had his eye on the ball with the Middle_East. Like #Netenyahu he is a major threat to global peace and should be fired immediately" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1713684758088028548) 2023-10-15T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fall in US inflation not just a blip says Fed official @Austan_Goolsbee backed up by @SecYellen" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1714227020358373497) 2023-10-17T10:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🛑SAUDI FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS WITH IRANIAN COUNTERPART DISCUSS CURRENT MILITARY ESCALATION IN GAZA AND SURROUNDING AREAS The same problem from two perspectives Huge distance apart" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1714645888360976644) 2023-10-18T14:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Brad_Setser isnt this china plundering its hidden reserves to stem capital outflow/stabilise the currency" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1720524908743049659) 2023-11-03T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China Sends Valentines To America. The Wolf Warriors Are Slayed. @nytimes article highlights an english article on @xinhua highlighting a complete Volte Face in China's wolf warrior approach to the US. Most people think the turn in China / US reltions is a public relations exercise the impact of which will amount to nothing but a hill of beans. Me - I think this is a gamechanger in US/China relations. Detente Is Here "To me you are America": Xi Jinping's interactions with American people" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1724540101194023204) 2023-11-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@StubbornFacts do you have a graph on this. look forward to following you" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1727044666896572516) 2023-11-21T19:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$NVDA = 100X $APPL Way back in [----] ( see thread - Explains why I love @X a respostory of the greatest ideas ) I tried to frame what the arrival of $TSLA would look like for the future. The nearest comparable I felt was Apple purely on a life style choice and Climate Change wasn't really a thing back then. TSLA as a data and technology platform didn't enter my mind and while I could never have predicted the meterric ride @elonmusk has given us when I think about $NVDA and try and contectualise it we are not talking about Lifestyle choices here as in the case of TSLA or APPL or even the power" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1727128213460009016) 2023-11-22T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Defcon [--] At SAFE/PBOC Chinas new forex party chief will oversee US$3 trillion in reserves while trying to stabilise the yuan Something #NQR ( not quite right here ) and perhaps an indication of real problems for the Chinese. Why Only recently Pan Gonsheng was appointed party Chair and Governor of PBOC. The elevation to party chair and his move from SAFE seen in my view atleast as the no2 agency in the PBOC/SAFE construct was a reward for his commendable handling of China's currency reserves and while CNY is at multiyear lows versus the dollar despite a tech wreck property unwind and covid" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1728044247218057466) 2023-11-24T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1733160511607357583) 2023-12-08T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "You make a good point but dynamics change all the time. Lets take Covid March [----]. Did anyone expect SPX to rally 130% The inflation shock was a 1970s phenomenon in a world of lower rates. How important is dollar strength. How many times in [--] years have we had an inflation shock the resulting dollar strength that came with rate hikes that were by any measure extraordinary Bonds are off their worst [--] year run in history. Investors certainly saw #tech as a safe haven( gold and yen two traditional safe havens either stalled ( XAU ) or collapsed ( Yen). If you are in the camp that thinks the" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1735194179527905291) 2023-12-14T07:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "indeed a great thread. IMV China was gaming the US. After the downgrade they said nothing but as your data confirm's they we selling. Why Well you get a lot of barginaing power if the 2nd largest holder of US Debt follows through with sales of UST's which were already underpressure with the higher for longer mantra the fed were running trying to regain credibility having waited for [--] months before they hiked. In a scramble to rescue their credibility they were late to the party and then drank too much of their own higher for longer cool-aid. In q2 the process of raprochement began and" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1737670590486466623) 2023-12-21T03:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Great Hall Of The People Accord China Sold US Bonds In Q3 But Rescued The US And China From Armegeddon. IMV China was gaming the US using its US bond holdings as leverage around the time Fitch downgraded US deb. After the downgrade they said nothing publically but as @Brad_Setser thread confirms the Chinese were deifinately selling. Why Well you get a lot of barginaing power if the 2nd largest holder of US Debt follows through with sales of UST's where yields were already pressurised the Feds higher for longer mantra as they tried to regain credibility lost having waited for [--] months before" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1737678332035047424) 2023-12-21T03:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Achtung Swiss Franc [----] Peak Broken- Is China Involved Chart [--] UsdChf Us10y Spx (inv) Snb FX reserves Chart [--] China Trade Weighted Rmb vs Switzerland FX Reserves Chart [--] Repeat Chart [--] with China CFETS = TW RMB Chart 4(a) China US Bond Holdings vs SNB FX reserves (Inverted LHS -1Y) Chart 4(b) Swiss FX Reserves vs China Trade Surplus Chart 4(c) Swiss FX Reserves vs China Trade Surplus vs Spx. Observation [--] charts show a strong link between Swiss FX reserves China Trade Surplus China Trade weighted RMB SPX US [--] year yields. Any help understanding the Asset flows appreciated. Beginning 2009" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1738404985526751359) 2023-12-23T03:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "China Capital A/c Opening Up Coming sooner than one thinks and given the recent economic turmoil it would be completely unexpected. Here are two examples of small scale convertibility as part of a stepping stone to e-RMB stable coin at the heart of international commerce. China Unveils CBDC Machine for Foreign Passport Holders - China has launched its first automated digital yuan wallet (CBDC)-opening machine for overseas passport holders. China will continue to work on accepting foreign bank cards mobile payments cash and account services to create a more convenient payment environment for" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1740556722639425930) 2023-12-29T02:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "GOLD- China bought massive amounts of Gold in [----] when it decoupled RMB from the dollar. They did so for a reason. When inflation ( China undoubtedly weaponised inflation shock ) spiked they wanted to show RMB was a reliable safe haven and were huge sellers when everyone was buying. Id say this. Many people in the market predicting a gold break out. On xau/usd it looks like we can break a tripple top. But look at XAU/CNY perhaps you dont care too much for my line drawing but Id just say this. Covid created the biggest inflation shock in 50/70 years. Everyone is bullish. Yet look at chart 1" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1740595618597290225) 2023-12-29T04:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How China talked markets out of a run on the renminbi" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1741951624761774233) 2024-01-01T22:36Z [----] followers, 19.2K engagements "Covid Diagnoses Are Rising NASDAQ BIOTECH INDEX HITS NEAR 2-YEAR HIGH LAST UP 2.4% https://t.co/SA5hDb4bFx NASDAQ BIOTECH INDEX HITS NEAR 2-YEAR HIGH LAST UP 2.4% https://t.co/SA5hDb4bFx" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1742308215700828242) 2024-01-02T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🛑 Gamechanger #AI Part [--] 🛑 Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: Generative AI is the single most significant platform transition in computing history. In the last [--] years nothing has been this big. Its bigger than PC its bigger than mobile and its gonna be bigger than the internet by far. AMD $AMD CEO Lisa Su: If you think about the technology trends that weve seen over the last [--] or [--] years - whether youre talking about the internet or the mobile phone revolution or how PCs have changed things - AI is [--] times [---] times more than that in terms of how its impacting everything that we do." [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1744121759693984238) 2024-01-07T22:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China sidelines PBOC ( QE Beckons ) With more direct supervision from the party perhaps its ability to resist quantitative easing will be diminished" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1744388322632364461) 2024-01-08T15:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BTC ETF's In The Cake A thread 🧵 Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets: A thread 🧵 Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets:" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1744396454003605812) 2024-01-08T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook according to Switzerlands central bank chief https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-swiss-franc-strength-is-shifting-inflation-snb-s-jordan-saysutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-swiss-franc-strength-is-shifting-inflation-snb-s-jordan-saysutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1747772706425020532) 2024-01-18T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TSMC expects up to 25% revenue growth" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1748302356054229454) 2024-01-19T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Brad_Setser @Mike_Weilandt i would say this. most academic's just look at the China FX equation from the USDCNY perspective. That's only one side of the balance sheet and China has specifically told us that the Basket is equally important" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1748391529872281783) 2024-01-19T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Citigroup told private bankers serving Chinese clients not to discuss the yuan or hedging the currency risk when making trips to the mainland according to people familiar with the matter via @markets" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1748460837633729016) 2024-01-19T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Peace In Our Time ( China / USA ) for me more signs that the Biden Administration will go soft on China to help ramp the economy to try atleast tohave the economy running hot and consumer's believing in Bidenomics. I think CHina and US under Biden want anything but a Trump Victory and they came to that agreement at Apec with the ground's for a deal or accord laid down when Schumer visited Beijing and met with Xi prior to Oct 22nd. What got them there US yields above 5% was the equivalent of mutual assured destruction for them both. GOP lawmakers met with Democratic pushback in China" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1749852913495625851) 2024-01-23T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@investor1927 short AUD/CNY" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1750164369235710015) 2024-01-24T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Biden administration's emerging economic message" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1750221385698255294) 2024-01-24T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "acually the opposite. China rallied its FX basket ( now = Ranking to USDCNY) when Covid roofed inflation. They weaponized inflation shock showing CNY was strong. This immediate action to appreciate their FX basket contrasts sharply from the Fed's policy response which took them a full [--] months before they responded with the 1st rate hike. Yet no-one in academia is debating the contrasting credibilty gap that action by China vs the Inaction by the Fed will mean for long term investors looking at CNY as a store of value in inflationary or war footing environment. Why So you only have to look" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1750296778304377046) 2024-01-24T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@declanganley this is what we need in Ireland. If it happen's Im joining. @IFAmedia The German farmers revolt Dont miss spikeds exclusive report from Berlin where farmers are rebelling against green tyranny. Watch share and let us know what you think.👇 https://t.co/WUNMtXQN67 The German farmers revolt Dont miss spikeds exclusive report from Berlin where farmers are rebelling against green tyranny. Watch share and let us know what you think.👇 https://t.co/WUNMtXQN67" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1750305680232194279) 2024-01-24T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the hills. On some products alone Chinese clients are paying anything from 20-40% premium to access overseas assets. Perhaps it's time they had a look at their home market after the steps taken this week. via @WSJ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750533554378055955) 2024-01-25T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Robert Kennedy - Who Will Be King 💯 Washington is now worrying about @RobertKennedyJr. The view is that he cant win the electoral college but he is profoundly impacting the race both through ideas and by pulling large numbers of voters away from both Trump and Biden. He has the highest approval ratings and is out Washington is now worrying about @RobertKennedyJr. The view is that he cant win the electoral college but he is profoundly impacting the race both through ideas and by pulling large numbers of voters away from both Trump and Biden. He has the highest approval ratings and is out" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1751230601481323000) 2024-01-27T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Higher US interest Rates -CRE Obliteration- Inadequate Regional Bank loan loss provisions & mark to market losses on bond portfoliosJapanese Banks exposure to US CRE synching with Chinese property related liquidity trap. Rates to property to banks to cross border dominoe effect. Dangers increasing rapidly of doom loop.Achtung 💥⚠ Shares of Japanese bank Aozora are collapsing. Stock's on steepest 2-day drop since it became a public company. Why Bank reported massive exposure to US commercial real estate. https://t.co/3WXmlFEny2 Shares of Japanese bank Aozora are collapsing. Stock's on steepest" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1753338389875818784) 2024-02-02T08:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Move Over Gold - this chart makes the point succintly. Gold is worthless. So is cocaine if you legalise drugs. AI Tech is the new safe haven The #gold mining sector is the worst sector in the entire stock market we can all agree on this Today $META is adding $220 billion in market cap in first [--] minutes of trading. That is nearly the total combined value of every gold miner on the planet ($277 billion) $GDX $NEM https://t.co/frS2E8lkQu The #gold mining sector is the worst sector in the entire stock market we can all agree on this Today $META is adding $220 billion in market cap in first 30" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1753449200203760024) 2024-02-02T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Powell to @60Minutes '' Goldilocks ''. Carry On Broadcast Ends Stocks Soar Monday. h/t @biancoresearch" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1753594741399470383) 2024-02-03T01:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Evergrande - Market Clearing Event on China. 🛑 (part [--] ) The similarities between the collapse in the early 1990's Japanese Banking Sector and the collapse in China's property market are plentiful. Last week's Evergrande Bankrupcty and the ''national team'' buying of Chinese ETF's may be important non co-incidental events representing an inflection point in Chinese Markets. The price action in Chinese markets yesterday was historicaly bad showing a turn wont come east. It was the 6th straight day with 3x more declining than advancing stocks in the Shanghai Composite. That's never happened in" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1754874395057668362) 2024-02-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@biancoresearch starlink" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1754906797977084327) 2024-02-06T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@albertedwards99 @dailychartbook look at Gold vs CNY when Inflation turned higher. Gold is managed by China. it aint going anywhere" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1755202646917501400) 2024-02-07T12:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yellen Stable Coins & $USDT" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1755305068918690146) 2024-02-07T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There is another agenda. cc @albertedwards99 China want's a strong CNY becasue it want's to avoid the mistake made by the Europeans when it launched the Euro and it dropped precipitously to .83cent. G7 had to intervene. China didnt have this luxury when it launched the e-cny in Feb [----]. My view is that China weaponised Covid. They knew it was coming and rallied their FX basket 17%meanwhile the dummies at the Fed took ( [--] months before the first hike ). Not only that China sold gold and yen neutering the safr haven effect that one would ordinarily associate with the biggest inflation and war" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1755323437155787041) 2024-02-07T20:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Important Thread for all Monetarists. New Zealand - Canary In The Coal Mine. The RBNZ invented the 2% inflation target in [----]. The first developed the world central bank to do so. The Fed adopted a 2% inflation target in [----] [--] years after the RBNZ. NZ is always important in Central Bank Policy Circles. Note Bene. 3/5 Even though the story above is about one bank (ANZ) forecasting hikes because inflation is not under control the market in New Zealand has had a dramatic turn toward this thinking in the last few weeks. The orange line in the chart below shows the probability of a move at" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1756293803881717981) 2024-02-10T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Masayoshi Son's (SOFTBANK) $100 billion effort to create an AI chip rival to Nvidia" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1758993292283265125) 2024-02-17T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ursula von der Leyen calls on EU to subsidise defence production Ireland Never Voted For This Kind Of European Defense Pact We are on a slippery slope where our European Membership will pull us into the Ukraine fiasco . Watch the government try to introduce policies like this via the back door and the electorate will have no opportunity to have their say" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1759549567949791614) 2024-02-19T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "National Team buys CNY after historic incremental cut in Chinese interest rates determined to defend domestic market ⚡#BREAKING China's central bank cuts the 5-year Loan Prime Rate #LPR by 25BPs to 3.95% from 4.20% in February the first cut since August and the most on record. 1-year LPR at 3.45% unchanged. #China #ratecut https://t.co/v87x6NiPfI https://t.co/xuuWEFJJxd ⚡#BREAKING China's central bank cuts the 5-year Loan Prime Rate #LPR by 25BPs to 3.95% from 4.20% in February the first cut since August and the most on record. 1-year LPR at 3.45% unchanged. #China #ratecut" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1759756148297670689) 2024-02-20T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "ECB are shitting themselves about the doom link between bank deposits and bond yields hence they want a digital Euro to be for transaction purposes only and wont support / wil actively block a defi ecosystem tht highlights the enormous wealth transfer from deposit holders to banks who support the BIS CB system. Its a PONZI and I wish we had people like Issing Tietmeyer and Schlessinger to call a halt to it" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1763978339193159717) 2024-03-02T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bruised by stock market Chinese rush into banned bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1764389387398152294) 2024-03-03T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Alipay WeChat Pay ease the way for foreign travellers to make payments in China ( Mass Adoption Of E-CNY slowly and then all at onece. ) e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency https://t.co/HxJarWC75Q e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency https://t.co/HxJarWC75Q" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1770462158003769825) 2024-03-20T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "SNB Has No Target For Swiss Franc Vice President Martin Schlegel said. This is one Im watching closely. Last week the SNB caught the market on the hop cutting rates unexpectedly. Back In January the outgoing President of the SNB - Jordan said The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook while they may not have a target for the Swiss Franc they certainly want it weaker noting that all time strength of the franc at the end of [----] leading Jordan to suggest that very little risk that price gains will rebound past the 2% upper end of the" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1773111702243963057) 2024-03-27T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "QE - CHINA In rare monetary policy shift Xi tells China central bank to buy treasury bonds https://sc.mp/ft4vlutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3256967&utm_medium=share_widget https://sc.mp/ft4vlutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3256967&utm_medium=share_widget" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1773315073152372872) 2024-03-28T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Swiss Franc Top ( Iv ) Japan - Hiking Rates Swizerland - Cutting Rates and toying with economic disaster per the below. Short Swiss/Yen https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/03/25/the-eu-plot-to-ensnare-switzerland/ 🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook according to Switzerlands central bank chief https://t.co/YPmOmvCYS0 https://t.co/irAW9BWV6Q https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/03/25/the-eu-plot-to-ensnare-switzerland/ 🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1776973868491518276) 2024-04-07T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OIl - Inflation FeedStock nothing rocket science about this last week Biden declared he was going to start re-filling the SPR then I had a look at how low it was. we also know the US had assumed the mantle of the worlds biggest oil producer Its clear that the US ramped production of Crude and drained the SPR to crush the oil price but now with Saudi/OPec production cuts and ongoing risks of escalation between Iran and Israel the inflation cracker looks set to disappoint. And here's the thing Oil aint helping keep all those other commodity prices ( Copper Cacao Coffee ) capped either. Some" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1777436420572930266) 2024-04-08T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Largest Block Trade Ever On FED Rate Direction Perhaps Yellen and Brainard know something 🔴 US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I'M CONFIDENT THAT INFLATION WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN - ( Yesterday ) 🔴 WH ECONOMIC ADVISOR BRAINARD: I EXPECT STEADY PROGRESS ON INFLATION IN THE COMING MONTHS. (Speaking today back to back with Yellen Brainard of course a former contender for Fed Governor If Biden wins the election a shoe-in IMHO ). The White House have no qualms what so ever speaking with an informed view about BIG DATA Releases. They did it a lot when Inflation was shredding Biden's popularity" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1777828128183796192) 2024-04-09T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part iii) $NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part ii) Jamie Dimon Agree's. On Nov [--] [----] I highlighted in the thread below - ( image [--] ) that we need to look at inventions like the wheel to get a sense of the real value of AI. $NVDA is 80% above the level of that post. The perspective I was https://t.co/vsKOpzRpam $NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part ii) Jamie Dimon Agree's. On Nov [--] [----] I highlighted in the thread below - ( image [--] ) that we need to look at inventions like the wheel to get a sense of the real value of AI. $NVDA is 80% above the level of that post. The perspective I was" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1777835424246796509) 2024-04-09T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "are people exiting $ORDI into $Trio Did you know we are dropping a bunch of EARLY pre-runes projects right now Do you want @OrdinalsBot perks and exclusive access Hint: $TRIO is our utility token 👀 Did you know we are dropping a bunch of EARLY pre-runes projects right now Do you want @OrdinalsBot perks and exclusive access Hint: $TRIO is our utility token 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1780030537702297695) 2024-04-16T00:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bitcoin Concern ( Part iii ) - Nov [----] Redux [--]. I've argued on this thread and on countless occasions previously that there is an existential link between Bitcoin and the $RMB. This relationship has its genesis from when China's FX reserves dropped by [---] Trio Dollars in 2014/17 a period which led China to devalue the $RMB by 3% in August [----] with a consequent 8% drop in $SPX. (Kinda what's started to happen in the last few days) Bitcoin ( and correspondingly $USDT ) are very correlated with $CNY and represent a pathway to outflow from China. If ever there was a time that Chinese HNW' s" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1780066756691685729) 2024-04-16T02:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MortimerleePaul would love your take on this" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1782150116905791874) 2024-04-21T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yellen criticizes Summers on inflation: He's been wrong in the past via @politico https://politi.co/3xXkZNz https://politi.co/3xXkZNz" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1785805126743040289) 2024-05-01T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🎯Oracle of Wall Street Meredith Whitney Op-Ed US Mortgage Reform Could Unleash $1-$2 Trio In Stimulus on a proposal to allow Freddie Mac to enter the home equity loan market. This could be a very big deal https://on.ft.com/3y7bFqI https://on.ft.com/3y7bFqI" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1786360834911826221) 2024-05-03T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China was collateral damage. Thank you for highlighting the interview with Yellen. No politician will ever admit collusion but read the interview in the context of democrats ( not exclusively the domain of the Democratic Party ) who witnessed an attack on the citadel of America on Jan6th. Trump like any despot in waiting had proved himself a threat to democracy itself. Yellen talks about the threat to American democracy and its institutions and the ordinary middle class people who have no college education and do not live on the east/west coasts who are disenfranchised and demoralised because" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1789613556347904141) 2024-05-12T11:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China killed Libra in [--] months by offering PayPal Strike visa and Mastercard to to its international payments system. They did the same for Alipay and WeChat pay. China will create mass adoption of RMB via e-channels like this. The next step will be to open capital account and create an RMB stable coin where RMB fx rate vs its basket never moves. a true stable coin 💰" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1789785034657833000) 2024-05-12T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "💯true. China will not devalue. I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB https://t.co/IjIc5rEV4A I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB https://t.co/IjIc5rEV4A" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1789971124958158994) 2024-05-13T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China signalled a win win outcome in the weeks before the ASEAN Biden/Xi summit. Its no coincidence that the recent upward blip coincided with the biggest drop in US yields in [--] years. No surprises the Fed pivoted in December nor importantly was the Chinese stimulus package announced [--] weeks before ASEAN. The trigger for all this was a meeting between Xi and Schumer on weekend of 0ct [--]. Youll notice the China bashing died down too. Now that the Fed cant cut Biden has reverted to China full frontal because its the only thing that American voters will give him credit for with regard to" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1790627539389493615) 2024-05-15T06:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China Sells Record Sum of U.S. Debt Amid Signs of Diversification China sold a record amount of Treasury and U.S. agency bonds amounting to $53.3 billion in the first quarter highlighting a move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist https://t.co/sXpDSVzcgB China sold a record amount of Treasury and U.S. agency bonds amounting to $53.3 billion in the first quarter highlighting a move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist https://t.co/sXpDSVzcgB" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1791224035688198303) 2024-05-16T21:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "China GDP growth for Q2 - forecast points to a slowdown from 7.2% to 3.0% 7/ Finally the combination of these indicators for April with the PMI survey indices gives a first indication of growth for Q2 pointing to a slowdown to 3% from 7.2% in Q1. https://t.co/s1My3VZZWc 7/ Finally the combination of these indicators for April with the PMI survey indices gives a first indication of growth for Q2 pointing to a slowdown to 3% from 7.2% in Q1. https://t.co/s1My3VZZWc" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1791407245168676870) 2024-05-17T09:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Taiwanese leader Lai sends dangerous signals with pro-independence speech: Beijing This will have repercussions https://sc.mp/6m4njutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3263331&utm_medium=share_widget https://sc.mp/6m4njutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3263331&utm_medium=share_widget" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1792603946596368609) 2024-05-20T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "🎯US RIA's 401K Pension Money Hold Only 3% of Bitcoin ETFs Only 3% of the outstanding ETF mkt Cap was held by Investment Advisors completely blowing up the narrative that "the Boomers are coming." 1/8 🧵on what I see in the Spot BTC 13F filings Conclusions I feared the Spot BTC ETFs were effectively "orange FOMO poker chips." The Q1 13F filings only further convinced me this was the case. Only 3% of the outstanding ETF mkt Cap was held by Investment Advisors 1/8 🧵on what I see in the Spot BTC 13F filings Conclusions I feared the Spot BTC ETFs were effectively "orange FOMO poker chips." The" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1792619567518216677) 2024-05-20T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Goldman & Morgan Stanley Upgrade China" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1792626213187366973) 2024-05-20T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Amazon Halts Nvidia SuperChip orders awaiting upgrade - Buy The Dip According to @Munster_Gene that is if you get one. Munster: the AI build is just starting. https://on.ft.com/4c4G4oj https://on.ft.com/4c4G4oj" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1792920719556280568) 2024-05-21T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Keidanren :Japan Business Lobby Agree 5.6% avg pay hike Highest in [--] years. Its my experience having followed Japanese Intervention for [--] Years that the MOF in combination with the BOJ are amongst the most experienced masters of the Dark Art's Of FX Intervention there is. A few weeks ago the two agencies overcame their tendency to bicker giving a joint press statement about the weak Yen. That both agencies were in alignment was a turning point and sure enough they intervened within the following [--] hours. Consistently they win every time all the time. This time should not be any different." [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177258313630120) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My sense is that with labour shortages and a global re-set on inflation there is a risk that the BOJ get's trapped where the Yen weakens on every occasion a hike is necessary creating a ''sell japan mentality''. We are at major resistance in USD/Yen going back to [----] with @jnordvig highlighting the widening rate differentials in favour of Japan" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177262059147422) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Nikkei is also sitting at multi-year resistance with many foreigners hedged buyers of the Japanese stock market. We've already seen suggestions that there is legislation being considered that would give the likes of Kampo ( the whale of foreign bond and equity investing ) a tax break if they booked their massive profits. Kampo may have already begun to reduce their foreign bond positions" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177265599058423) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Brad_Setser points out that the MOF have equally massive profits from their previous interventions between 2008/2011 with the last intervention ( massive ) before Kuroda opened the spigots of monetary easing with Usd/Yen at [-----]. Another factor to take on board is international holdings of Japanese T-Bills is 60%. Rising front end yields in anticipation of another 2-3 rate hikes this year could see foreigners capitulate. Specifically I think China may be the holder of these bills running a short Yen position against them. At 60% of total holdings foreign holdings is nearly [---] Trillion" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177269201997849) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why Might China hold Japanese T-Bills Post Covid and still 14-16 months BEFORE the Fed hiked China bought Dollars across the board to strengthen their currency basket. As chart shows there is a very strong relationship between China's CFETS basket and UsdJPY. The FX basket rallied 17% while global inflation was exploding yet the Fed sat on its hands for [--] months before they took action. Usd/Yen rallied from 103-115 before the [--] year swap rate regained its pre-covid levels. It was nearly a year after that before rate markets began pricing in FED hikes at which point USD/YEN exploded. Japan" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177272846897623) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "my view remains that we are very much at the top of the range in Usd/yen. The pay deals will increase pressure on BOJ to hike widening differentials with the Dollar. I am surprised more wasn't made of Yellens slap down on intervention. Any hint from the FED that they would have to reverse course and tighten again would be a game changer. My long time north star on Japan Jesper Koll called the pivot in rate markets months ago and believes that USD/yen is going to [---]. He sent me this great chart deposit offer that the largest e-bank in Japan is offering to clients if they switch out of Yen" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1793177276281921990) 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "NY FED Has Extended Its $ 0.5Trio Bailout Facility to Japan's Norinchukin https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/12/the-new-york-fed-has-extended-its-half-trillion-dollar-bailout-facility-to-a-sprawling-japanese-bank-youve-never-heard-of/ https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/12/the-new-york-fed-has-extended-its-half-trillion-dollar-bailout-facility-to-a-sprawling-japanese-bank-youve-never-heard-of/" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1796276615330324824) 2024-05-30T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Clueless On Inflation. Two quality analysts different conclusions" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1796680358710092030) 2024-05-31T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ChorzempaMartin a close friend and top economist rebutted with this" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1796815897140527375) 2024-06-01T08:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@robin_j_brooks do you think that the evolution of the CBDC is in part responsible for curtailing outflows Please address this subject frequently. Along with the US deficit its one of the most important data sets out there. 🎯" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1799557183836651834) 2024-06-08T21:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "IMF Rant On US Deficit" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1799844934184243390) 2024-06-09T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Super Mario could give weak EU a shot in the arm https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/super-mario-could-give-weak-eu-a-shot-in-the-arm/ https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/super-mario-could-give-weak-eu-a-shot-in-the-arm/" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1800123787335405650) 2024-06-10T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blackstone eyes $10bn in Japan deals amid buyout fund influx via @NikkeiAsia https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Blackstone-eyes-10bn-in-Japan-deals-amid-buyout-fund-influx https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Blackstone-eyes-10bn-in-Japan-deals-amid-buyout-fund-influx" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1800221483622686837) 2024-06-10T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My dad a country doctor took down black flags that adorned our town during the hunger strikes so for me @sinnfein would never be a credible party of government. I left the country in [----] and returned recently to a much changed country. I was astounded to see that the next generation had forgotten the murderous link to Sinn Fein's past as the political wing of the provies. I applaud you identifying what in effect looks like a command and control structure within the party where decisions are still made at the top and forced down on party machine. The clandestine link with ''central command''" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1800878453106905465) 2024-06-12T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "ECB Telling Porkies 🐽 The push toward completion of Capital Markets Union Is on. @ecb Piero Cipollone right off the bat misleads his audience saying Euro share in international reserves has been constant at 19% for the last [--] years. Go back to [----] when Euro lost credibility Euro share in FX reserves was well above 25% depending on the data set one uses. During the crises Euro weighting dropped to 17% as the attached chart shows. Its clear its recovered a little but Euro is caught in a giant pincer movement between the Dollar and China's $RMB. To try and and avoid the Euro getting lost in" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1800951212549816499) 2024-06-12T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BItcoin - STRONGLY OFFERED AT 70K🎯 two people both market veteran's have noted strong offers in the market at 70k One knows well my strong views of the relationship between China's CBDC ambitions and its impact on BItcoin. Bitcoin and China Outflows - Matched April saw huge outflows from China as attempts to stabilise the economy yield average results. meanwhile Bitcoin records strong inflows. in effect China outflows match off against Bitcoin ETF purchases. End result - Bitcoin Quiet. here https://t.co/IdkGHDku95 Bitcoin and China Outflows - Matched April saw huge outflows from China as" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1801211496887730631) 2024-06-13T11:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Draghi Lobs [--] or [--] At China He is bang on🎯 about China's FX Policy. Two chart's from WSJ show how China has kept inflation under control since covid and as a result its nominal FX rate is down 15%. Draghi traditionally moderate has issued a call to action. Shows you how tenuous Europe's position is in the world today caught in the pincer movement between the US and China. The European Parliament Elections have clearly been a wake up call. Not before long. https://on.ft.com/45rOe7K https://on.ft.com/45rOe7K" [X Link](https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1801749109541372264) 2024-06-14T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@CurrencyWar1 Louis Curran
Louis Curran posts on X about china, inflation, bitcoin, japan the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +696%
- [--] Month [-----] -37%
- [--] Months [------] +29%
- [--] Year [------] -54%
Mentions: [--] #
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.32%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.10%
- [--] Months [-----] no change
- [--] Year [-----] +3.80%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries currencies cryptocurrencies stocks technology brands celebrities travel destinations automotive brands exchanges
Social topic influence china, inflation, bitcoin, japan, stocks, euro, debt, $cny, cbdc, fed
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bradsetser @robinjbrooks @elonmusk @billackman @jnordvig @merrionstreet @santiagoaufund @ustreasury @fiannafailparty @eucommission @lagarde @paulkrugman @politico @johnauthers @markets @robinbrooksiif @nytimes @wsj @secyellen @declanganley
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) SPX6900 (SPX) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) TRIO (OrdinalsBot) (TRIO) IBM (IBM)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"BITCOIN - JGB HEDGE Japan is trapped in a very bad place and is the G10 country that's closest to a full-blown debt crisis. Japan's only choice is to accept higher interest rates and a debt crisis or - if it caps yields - a depreciating Yen which is nearing its [----] lows. https://t.co/i8qyyg4BGo https://t.co/6OXN1l7X0j Japan is trapped in a very bad place and is the G10 country that's closest to a full-blown debt crisis. Japan's only choice is to accept higher interest rates and a debt crisis or - if it caps yields - a depreciating Yen which is nearing its [----] lows. https://t.co/i8qyyg4BGo"
X Link 2026-01-14T02:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tour de Force 🔥 BREAKING: The White House just said Marco Rubio's blockbuster speech in Munich is getting MASSIVE PRAISE worldwide posting all [--] minutes of it Rubio dropped some absolutely incredible quotes in front of Europe. KEEP DEFENDING THE WEST MARCO https://t.co/pMySBduOLo 🔥 BREAKING: The White House just said Marco Rubio's blockbuster speech in Munich is getting MASSIVE PRAISE worldwide posting all [--] minutes of it Rubio dropped some absolutely incredible quotes in front of Europe. KEEP DEFENDING THE WEST MARCO https://t.co/pMySBduOLo"
X Link 2026-02-15T09:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@robin_j_brooks I disagree with you both. China will never let RMB drop how can you be the safe haven alternate to unstable America. What they can do as they did after the failed deval in [----] is weaken the basket but that too is hardly moved since inception in [----]. Usd/Cny is slipping higher - CNY weakening but hardly dramatic. and he also shows the FX basket depreciating. most people just look at CNY wrt to the Dollar when China has been telling the world that it has been de-emphasizing its exposure to the US both in trade but also in their corresponding holding's of UST's. I've said"
X Link 2025-04-08T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mining Stocks on Cusp of Supercycle as AI Boom Stokes Metals ( Free Link ) Mining stocks look undervalued even after gaining nearly 90% since the start of [----] driven by the boom in robotics and data centers."
X Link 2026-01-24T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SullyCNBC Strike 3"
X Link 2026-02-01T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"StableCoins - The tail wagging the dog New ECB Working Paper says Stablecoins increase the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy to Treasury yields "because changes in interest rates induce stablecoin issuers to adjust their bond holdings more aggressively". Also that "U.S. shocks transmit more forcefully abroad New ECB Working Paper says Stablecoins increase the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy to Treasury yields "because changes in interest rates induce stablecoin issuers to adjust their bond holdings more aggressively". Also that "U.S. shocks transmit more forcefully abroad"
X Link 2026-02-01T00:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tour De Force Explanation Warsh [---]. Less debt-funded consumption. More investment-led growth. This article is right that people are focused on the wrong thing hawk vs dove. But it misses what the right thing is. A Warsh Fed isnt really about shrinking the Fed balance sheet. The real goal is shrinking the economys dependence on the federal governments balance sheet https://t.co/OVvGCe71XB This article is right that people are focused on the wrong thing hawk vs dove. But it misses what the right thing is. A Warsh Fed isnt really about shrinking the Fed balance sheet. The real goal is shrinking"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@tphuang can we talk turkey on China/Japan"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Even better JGBS our bond market your problem. Gold was a parking lot for chinas trade weighted surplus that rose [--] trio from 22-25. It was Chinas way of censuring USA for Pelosis Taipei escapade. Trump / Xi was all about Taiwan - rhe Chinese are now happy. As you point out CNY fixing and price action is telling you they buy into trumps stronger Asian FX narrative ( Yen & Korea will follow). Now that they are happy look at Oct [----] & Schumers trip. Look at what happened to bonds immediately after ( biggest move in 10s in [--] years and biggest rise in Chinas fx reserves in [--] months [--] weeks"
X Link 2026-02-10T08:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pstAsiatech Paul - the Bloomberg article is hysterical click bait. See why here https://x.com/currencywar1/status/2021080727463383366s=46 China Bond Sales - IGNORE (2) @Brad_Setser & @jnordvig are the leading experts on capital flows. I highlighted this first thing today Only a few weeks ago Brad posted a thorough review of Chinas banking sector dollar purchases which doesnt tally with the fake news article from https://t.co/YXXxJ81A0k https://x.com/currencywar1/status/2021080727463383366s=46 China Bond Sales - IGNORE (2) @Brad_Setser & @jnordvig are the leading experts on capital flows. I"
X Link 2026-02-10T08:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JessicaHoversen @gdp1985 this is the most important chart in stablecoins. Happy to discuss. Great article Jess"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Brad_Setser Theyd much rather thy stopped buying gold and instead redeployed the surplus into the bond market which I hope well see on release of next TIC report. Oct [----] is what Im looking for"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wang Yi / Rubio The ultimate WIN WIN- Will China come back to the US BOND market Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Wang Yi stated that President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have provided strategic guidance for the development of China-U.S. relations. We should work together to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state and make [----] a year in which China and the U.S. move toward mutual respect peaceful coexistence"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deflation is coming 🚨 @elonmusk & @CathieDWood Read both Watch both videos https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2022112266988949516s=12 Cathie Wood just identified the precise mechanism destroying the economys foundation: AI didnt change the game it eliminated the scarcity the entire game was designed around. Deflation is materializing in measurable ways. Truflation at 0.8%. Pepsi slashing prices 15%. Home https://t.co/hVDdJDI2XB https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2022112266988949516s=12 Cathie Wood just identified the precise mechanism destroying the economys foundation: AI didnt change the game it"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BUY ASIAN FX Yen KRw and CNY Trump will thank you for it too Cheap currencies and large external surpluses are two reasons to think Asian exchange rates can appreciate. A third is the improving cycle. Thats true even in China where deflation is no longer worsening a change which in turn has slowed the pace of PBC easing. https://t.co/YYmvMPRpSa Cheap currencies and large external surpluses are two reasons to think Asian exchange rates can appreciate. A third is the improving cycle. Thats true even in China where deflation is no longer worsening a change which in turn has slowed the pace of"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China gives up on state-backed digital cash: The US and Europe should take notefor different reasons https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/china-gives-state-backed-digital-cash-us-and-europe-should-take-note https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/china-gives-state-backed-digital-cash-us-and-europe-should-take-note"
X Link 2026-02-15T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Has #Crypto De-Coupling Begun $ETH breaks higher but #Bitcoin down. #Bitcoin washout 20k still on. $ETHBTC formation like Mar [--]. Big Q : can #BTC continue lower on regulatory/China driven washout while $Eth & Alts break away reversing parallel move w #BTC in past l2 months"
X Link 2021-06-30T20:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CPI - Today one of the most important CPI numbers in years came in higher yet dollar related assets went the other way. No suprises $DXY at major resistance as was 2yr $USDCNY. If any nation fears rampant inflation and a stronger dollar its China. Did they buy $TLT & sell USD"
X Link 2021-10-13T15:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$KWEB (China Tech ETF) collapsed. As foreigners exited 2Yr fx O/R $USDCNY moved lock step. PBOC has eased policy 3X in response -50bp RRR- 5bp MLR & increased $USD & $EUR weights in TW basket All Dovish $CNY. Digital $RMB 1mon away China selling $BTC to stop capital flight"
X Link 2022-01-06T12:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Biggest Capital Flow Of Our LifefTime As $USDCNY hits [---] year lows just think of where it was [--] years ago #fx Flows to Chinese govies remained in a league of their own in [----]. Foreign investors increased their position by 30% compared to less than 5% in the average EM. Foreign holdings are still small in % GDP so we might see many more flows. w/ @econchart https://t.co/EKNY4iyvqA Flows to Chinese govies remained in a league of their own in [----]. Foreign investors increased their position by 30% compared to less than 5% in the average EM. Foreign holdings are still small in % GDP so we"
X Link 2022-01-24T09:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Pivot Dollar #BTC chart : @jnordvig show's China huge #BTC seller since Nov '21. Why Credibility required strong $RMB pre-launch to ensure successBasket up 13% via $USD strength. This will reverse as China weakens CNY TW. Since Feb 4th ko despite tensions big NFP AHE"
X Link 2022-02-15T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"& CPI $DXY has not recovered and is now the bogeyman. $USDCNY is moving lower bringing broad $USD with it. Reduced s/term Russia threat is helping risk assets but my view is weaker Dollar is key theme for markets w/ best way to play it: long $BTC $KWEB $NDX & short $DXY"
X Link 2022-02-15T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China CNY Indicator Turns $RMB up .2% today taking out CPI AHE NFP and a bunch of other hawkish US numbers. Importantly $USDCNY [--] Year o/r turns also . CHINA REJECTS THE US TRADE REP S EVALUATION REPORT WHICH IT CLAIMS IS BASED ON UNILATERALISM AND TRADE PROTECTIONISM"
X Link 2022-02-18T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China Home Bias; ( Japan Is Done ) $NKY $CNY $YEN Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the hills. On some products https://t.co/9oL0HsmImE Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the"
X Link 2024-01-26T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deeper China-Saudi ties mean more yuan-based transactions ratings agency says - yuan-based oil trade faces significant challenges and may take decades to grow to a meaningful scale - but deepening Saudi-China ties and aligning long-term interests may help facilitate this process. - Talks of yuan-based oil trade often focus on the ability to pay in RMB but that alone is unlikely to boost its use. - the volume of such trades depends on oil exporters willingness to accept RMB for payment which depends on their ability to use the resulting proceeds. - As yuan is not broadly used in global trade"
X Link 2024-08-25T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Chinas $1.3 trillion Exporter FX avalanche could lift $RMB as much as 10% according to Stephen Jen one of the worlds top FX strategists. Stephen Jen is one of the best Fx strategists Ive had the pleasure to meet. Ive always admired his work. In this article he basically highlights that Chinese Corps have parked their export proceeds outside of RMB. When the fed begins rate cuts Jen expects as much as $1.3 Trillion held offshore by corps will start to funnel back to China perhaps driving the RMB up yes up as much as 10%. I certainly believe CNY will appreciate contrary to most peoples"
X Link 2024-08-28T01:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China Capital A/c Opening Draws a little closer. CHINA'S MINISTRY OF FINANCE TO RELEASE YUAN SOVEREIGN BONDS IN HONG KONG WITH HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY SCMP Editorial First it was Stock Connect. Then came Bond Connect. Now its Repo Connect. Well the last is not the official name but market insiders have taken to calling it that because it amounts to the same thing. It is part of a long-awaited last mile opening promised by Beijing last year to promote mainland bond liquidity ease capital controls internationalise the yuan and finally further promote Hong Kong as an offshore yuan hub.Using"
X Link 2025-02-13T05:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Credible Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve = $50Bio. Funded in Gold Back-of-Envelope Estimate Gold to Hold: 241M ounces ($700B) is near current levelsrevalue to unlock $747B. BTC to Hold: [------] BTC ($54.5B) for credibility funded by selling 18.8M ounces (7% of gold $54.5B). Remaining Gold: 242.7M ounces ($703B) still above average benchmarks This is my conversation with Grok im trying to consider ways trump might fund the SBR. Riasing taxes or issuing bonds I feel would already threaten the very jumpy US bond markets where the US debt is above [--] Trillion and inflation expectations are at multi"
X Link 2025-03-02T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mrs Watanabe Earns 9% On [--] month $Yen Time Deposits"
X Link 2025-04-22T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bollox The only player on the street big enough to move TWD is #PBOC. The lifers may have been involved but the trigger didn't come from them. PBOC have form. Look at what happened to $KRW when China put KRW in its FX basket. Look at what happened to gold when China started it CFETS basket. Now look at China's CFETS basket. It's breaking down just like it did in [----]. This is what the market simply doesnt understand - China and the United States both want a weaker dollar. I would suggest as evidenced by the comments from both the chinese and trump that some kind of deal is done. UsdCnh is"
X Link 2025-05-05T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Japan's New Fin Minister ( Yen Fair Value 120-130) Katayama is historically biased toward Abe-style conservatism as a protg of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This manifests in: Fiscal Expansionism: She supports aggressive stimulus to counter slow growth and inflation aligning with Abe's "Abenomics" (monetary easing fiscal spending structural reforms). As finance chief she backs Takaichi's pivot to expansive budgets potentially funding regional revitalization and yen stabilization efforts. However she critiques unchecked spending drawing from her MoF roots in budget examination. Monetary"
X Link 2025-10-21T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"AI is Killing Jobs US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades. "This comes as AI adoption softening consumer and corporate spending and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes: Challenger Gray & Christmas https://t.co/ixCLoKEuuN https://t.co/y0zmTmQDfa US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades. "This comes as AI adoption softening consumer and corporate spending and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes: Challenger Gray & Christmas https://t.co/ixCLoKEuuN https://t.co/y0zmTmQDfa"
X Link 2025-11-06T12:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cc @vonderleyen @Lagarde AI plans = [--] migration = [---] Inflation = [---] War plans = [---] Game plan = No Plan The European car industry is going the way of Nokia in the cellphone industry. EU carmakers currently have zero to very little foothold in the electrification or even hybridization technologies. They have no competitive AI industry that's at the core of autonomous driving. The https://t.co/tZcW6ELqIn The European car industry is going the way of Nokia in the cellphone industry. EU carmakers currently have zero to very little foothold in the electrification or even hybridization"
X Link 2025-11-21T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@elonmuskTN 67"
X Link 2025-11-28T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China's Demographic Problem - It Ain't What You Think AI: "job loss decline in industrial capability a critical lesson for other developing economies." "At its peak around [----] (just before and after the global financial crisis) Chinas manufacturing sector employed about [---] million people. .Now were down to about [---] million. So over the past decade [---] million people have left manufacturing. Where did they go Mainly into the service sector." -- Sun Zhongwei China's manufacturing sector underwent a profound transformation during this period: MVA = Manufacturing Value Added Nominal MVA:"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Economic and National security are = [--] JUST IN: US President Trump says "we need Greenland." "If you take a look at Greenland you have Russian and Chinese ships all over the place." https://t.co/2MaUOtZoMH JUST IN: US President Trump says "we need Greenland." "If you take a look at Greenland you have Russian and Chinese ships all over the place." https://t.co/2MaUOtZoMH"
X Link 2026-01-05T03:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tour De Force On China FX = @Brad_Setser Great work here from Brad and @paulkrugman this means as Paul Krugman notes in his latest substack the yuan is especially weak v any measure of long-term trend (the yuan should appreciate over time as China catches up to the advanced economies)/ China's trade fundamentals https://t.co/tSShtZOXxk 6/ https://t.co/YRDjRPXVLR this means as Paul Krugman notes in his latest substack the yuan is especially weak v any measure of long-term trend (the yuan should appreciate over time as China catches up to the advanced economies)/ China's trade fundamentals"
X Link 2026-01-05T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Apollo Torsten Slok & @fedguy point to growing Bank Credit Growth. Bank credit growth surprisingly surged in [----] to the tune of $800b. Much of it went to shadow banks but it ultimately ends up in the real economy. That is a strong tailwind for [----] on top of tax refunds and maybe even more stimulus payments. https://t.co/rjmGGzLtEt Bank credit growth surprisingly surged in [----] to the tune of $800b. Much of it went to shadow banks but it ultimately ends up in the real economy. That is a strong tailwind for [----] on top of tax refunds and maybe even more stimulus payments."
X Link 2026-01-05T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China's Property Weakness Drive's Weaker TW CNY For China the share of US imports and new housing starts are back to where they were at the start of the century https://t.co/dLOoiaUqlE For China the share of US imports and new housing starts are back to where they were at the start of the century https://t.co/dLOoiaUqlE"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Excellent Thread on CNY Sheng Songcheng who said in November that the correct exchange rate to balance Chinese and American consumers purchasing power might be as ☠ strong as five or even four yuan to the dollar. @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu @rhodium_group @Brad_Setser @CFR_org His comments echoed those of a former central bank official Sheng Songcheng who said in November that the correct exchange rate to balance Chinese and American consumers purchasing power might be as strong as five or even four yuan to the dollar. https://t.co/n6XrwpdLge @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu @rhodium_group @Brad_Setser"
X Link 2026-01-06T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China's Currency ( Trade Surplus ) Compensates For Disaster in Property sector Caixin: "Chinas revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in [----] from its [----] peak as a prolonged property downturn forced even state-backed investment vehicles to scale back. The extended slump highlights the deepening fiscal strain on regional authorities who have Caixin: "Chinas revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in [----] from its [----] peak as a prolonged property downturn forced even state-backed investment vehicles to scale back. The extended slump highlights the deepening fiscal"
X Link 2026-01-06T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Powell HAs To Go ( ii ) i laid out (below) a case that Powell needs to resign. first of all he politicised his role interfered with Yellen in the electoral process and more than anything in holding off for [--] months before they responded to the biggest inflation surge in [--] years they not only got it wrong but gave China an easy win to pressurise the US with [--] year Trade Surpluses of [---] Trio Dollars. That senior Central Bankers 1st in the US and now across G10 are coming to his defence a) tells you how clueless they are as a group ( I note the politician Christine LaGarde was the 1st"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fiscal Dominance - Yellen Warn's it's a significant risk blatantly ignoring the role her '' transient inflation '' and the resulting [--] month delay in raising interest rates had to play in the explosion in Debt Interest Cost. I believe as I lay out below that Powell was complicit in intervening in the electoral process with Yellen his major enabler holding off rate hikes when the inflation was hitting red lines. (see the damning charts ). Here is the FT Coverage of the story by @ChrisGiles_ Here is a snap shot of Yellen's delusional hypocrisy; Remarks by Janet L. Yellen on the future of the"
X Link 2026-01-14T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@charliebilello ok - thats fair but lets go back to March [----] when inflation kicked off. China reacted and moved its FX Basket Stronger ( bought Dollars's as a result ) but the FED stood pat for [--] months. Can we game out the future from March 2020"
X Link 2026-01-15T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BOJ To Sell ETF's Bank of Japan said it will start selling its holdings of ETFs a project that may take more than a century if it proceeds at the currently planned pace https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/bank-of-japan-says-sales-of-its-etf-holdings-to-start-next-weekaccessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2ODU2NjEwNywiZXhwIjoxNzY5MTcwOTA3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUOFk0RkdUOTZPU0kwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTcwNzZGODlEODM0RUM5ODU0MkUwN0E2Qzk2QzgzOSJ9.y-C_I4IL4VNrHqIaPM9oCsrdoIKkvR_OGjrGfFkfBXU"
X Link 2026-01-16T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China Demotes Japan Safe Haven Status. While much focus is on Japan's massive overseas holdings of foreign assets with holdings by China's private investors now nearly $8tn according to the latest available data from Chinas currency market regulator with growth of over $1tn in the first three quarters of [----] https://t.co/ZM4tsSqAMm While much focus is on Japan's massive overseas holdings of foreign assets with holdings by China's private investors now nearly $8tn according to the latest available data from Chinas currency market regulator with growth of over $1tn in the first three quarters"
X Link 2026-01-19T05:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"JGB's : What Will It Break - SAFE HAVEN YEN🚨 Y'day China's FX fix was its strongest since March [--] while perversley the JGB market had another beat down. In a battle for global supreamacy or at the very least to minimise the Dollar's exoribant privilege it cannot be coincidental that Gold and CNH are highly correlated with the turmoil in the #JGB market. The Japanese PM would do well to look at the playbook in [--] Year yields post Pelosi's trip to Taipei. Bottom Line - Do Not *uck With One China Policy The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In"
X Link 2026-01-19T08:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bessent: Chinas Xi Trump could meet four times this year via @politico Very good equilibrium exist's and no-one want's to upset that. https://politi.co/3Nr321Q https://politi.co/3Nr321Q"
X Link 2026-01-23T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"He - Li Feng - China Consumption Charge We never seek trade surplus on top of being the worlds factgory we hope to be the worlds market too Very clear message coming from China - Consumption Pivot Coming. This means strong CNY both vs the dollar and the basket - Inverted in Chart [--] https://x.com/clashreport/status/2013576240200827194s=20 https://x.com/clashreport/status/2013576240200827194s=20 China is prioritizing service consumption this year with a target to raise its share to 50% by 2030a 5ppt increase. We believe China can achieve this SHARE increase - like Japan in the 90s a shift from"
X Link 2026-01-23T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A Day Late A Dollar Short. Takaichi trying to keep a lid on Japanese yields by saying the right things. We should be communicating that we are all for deficit reduction not consumption #Yen #JGB #fx"
X Link 2026-01-23T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dollar Debasement"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"🚨🚨 Most Frightening Week-End Chart Trumps inflation numbers show Americans cannot tolerate this. Yet as USD hegemony wanes - and this is accelerated by Europeans divesting of USD assets - this will get worse. It will be intolerable for Americans and may well lead to a discrediting of the system itself as we saw in the USSR. The whole American late liberal system relies on artificially high consumption via low prices propped up by USD hegemony. As that unwinds the legitimacy of the system unwinds with it. 🚨⚠AMERICANS CANNOT TOLERATE LOWER LIVING STANDARDS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE"
X Link 2026-01-25T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"not having a pop read my piece just published. It requires your unrivalled attention to detail to see where the bodies are burried but the bottom line is that I can see that Intervention is a hold over until tax changes encourage home bias and we need to get a handle on the numbers https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015920202446454950 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015920202446454950"
X Link 2026-01-26T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"concerning for europe today $DAX $EURO & $BUNDS all going down together"
X Link 2015-06-05T10:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Fed thinks it is [----] all over again @GavynDavies Worth a Read https://www.ft.com/content/fbd53314-86d9-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2 https://www.ft.com/content/fbd53314-86d9-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2"
X Link 2019-06-10T08:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@hasufl Central bank interference with democracy ( wealth GAP ) has broken the trust of the people they serve"
X Link 2019-07-07T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TuurDemeester If not retail Whom US/EU institutions long way from regulation 🚀 to get involved. Asian millennials esp Chinese still main holders. [--] reasons they hold. Offshoring & Trading-Adrenaline. All crypto threatens Chinas new #digital $CNY. Since launch Vol + $CNY/ $BTC corr"
X Link 2019-10-04T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"IMPORTANT : Reports That The German CDU Caucus May Drop Black Zero - Schwartz Null aka Balanced Budget Goal Should The Economic Downturn Worsen - #Euro Pops Higher See This Chart - #Bunds Will Collapse #FX $EURUSD H/T@livesquawk"
X Link 2019-10-16T06:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BONDS WILL IMPLODE #BUNDS #USTR CN10Y JGB's & $USDCNY SENDING WARNINGS It all started with UDS/CNY & trade war. Chinese InflationPork May Be The Widow Maker. #macro #FX"
X Link 2019-10-28T13:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Ocean Protocol I raised money for @oceanprotocol in [----]. IEO a disaster mostly b/c refused to pay ransom demands of Exchanges to pump token. Since then @trentmc0 working to reorg the tokenomics & partnering with Toyota J+J IBM Unilever BMW & GM Roche. [--] [--] watch"
X Link 2019-12-09T06:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"NB: In August prompted by DCEP launch I argued $BTC [----] on grounds Yuan reserve #Fx status undermined via #bitcoin competition(outflows) which threatened $CNY sovereignty in [--] &now entailed retail longs b unwound. QED-China news dominated price since. DCEP test=Longs Out"
X Link 2019-12-09T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Forget #QE L-End cap liquidity drop [--] $trio deficits. Q4 GDP. Horrible Chi PMI. #MMT fadism. $USD weaponisation. Credit obesity. Pillars key to reserve #fx legitimacy are No [--] above US ARMY the Rule of Law which bequeaths Authority & Legitimacy to govern is in wind. $BTC+"
X Link 2020-01-31T16:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SantiagoAuFund Nasdaq 95/00 redux #warpspeed $DXY & $NSDQ rallied together then $ now + Chinas DCEP & #blockchain plan adding juice. #Tech #Digital will define winners & ilosers in a race to bottom. & have strategy & Brands but @EU does not. $ETH $SZSE $NADQ $EURUSD #Fx"
X Link 2020-02-11T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Equity Markets A Signal For #Crypto #technology/ #Digital/ #Blockchain driving everything. China's DCEP the Engine & Blockchain the Caboose. Thin W/e markets exaggerated P/T when move should be contextualised vs $NSDQ 95/00. China's $SZSE up 3% today signals buy $BTC + $ETH"
X Link 2020-02-17T06:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@zhusu $SZSE tech sector relationship with $ETH pre virus and post virus Added to long $ETH here"
X Link 2020-03-02T04:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CHINA GOES FISCAL (1) China to issue Special Treasury Bonds For 1st Time Since [----]. Are these bonds banks will buy or with DCEP (in testing) its all about financing China's Deficit. Could this lead to soft Cap A/c opening. $CNY Bullish & Bullish SZSE https://www.yuantalks.com/china-to-issue-special-treasury-bonds-for-third-time-on-record/ https://www.yuantalks.com/china-to-issue-special-treasury-bonds-for-third-time-on-record/"
X Link 2020-03-30T13:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"to renegade access to the Feds Repo / Swap Lines. Its hardly consistent with emerging reserve currency status ( the whole point to keeping the Yuan stable in the first place ) if the PBOC has to rely on the FED liquidity to stabilize things. There is a reasonable chance China"
X Link 2020-04-06T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"will have to let the Yuan weaken in line with the rest of Asian FX or see a massive draw down in their UST's to defend the Yuan. China can only hope and pray that the Fed's swap measures stabilize things and the dollar weakens form here. Looking back to [----] it doesn't look"
X Link 2020-04-06T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Solve This : Stabilise Global Markets Comment - Yellen made the point that the fed learned lessons in [----] about acting early and aggressively re dollar liquidity provision. Im not sure well see like for like dollar upside this time. Essential for stocks that $ tops 👀Some demand for USD liquidity has been satiated through USD swaps but this does not solve the impending question of corporate deleveraging of USD borrowings abroad. -JPM https://t.co/qBFSfh2eBk 👀Some demand for USD liquidity has been satiated through USD swaps but this does not solve the impending question of corporate"
X Link 2020-04-09T00:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"PBOC to test DCEP on 10CENT backed food giant Meituan This is the future of Crypto & Digital - PBOC creating a to ''mass adoption'' something that's eluded Digital/Crypto & fiat currencies bar dollar. [--] implications follow https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/china-to-expand-digital-yuan-test-to-food-delivery-giant-meituansref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/china-to-expand-digital-yuan-test-to-food-delivery-giant-meituansref=PHpzF5TU"
X Link 2020-07-15T08:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1) #BTC is a direct competitor to DCEP. I maintain my view that China will not allow BTC space to breathe until DCEP is up and running. 2) Digitalisation will define Winners and Losers and China is out in front benefiting $CNY $SZSE dollar expense. here https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1281089408289009664s=20 USDCNH Leading the way for Broad Dollar Sell-Off See @ChrisWeston_PS note which reenforces my view ( attached ) #YuanStrong Nasdaq 95-00 Redux https://t.co/tkrvnmL9Yi https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1281089408289009664s=20 USDCNH Leading the way for Broad Dollar Sell-Off See"
X Link 2020-07-15T08:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BTC - to PBOC $BTC outflow pathway represents exestential threat to DCEP. PBOC Mu told us #BTC popularity in 2014/17 threatened $CNY sovereignty. Libra [---] bio wallets also neutered DCEP internationalisation pathway via consumer mass adoption. In short since DCEP came on the"
X Link 2020-08-06T11:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$USDCHF & $NDNQ rallying in unison. SNB one of the largest foreign central bank holders of US equities saw an explosion in FX reserves in Q2. Dollar is cheap nice way to weaken Swissy ( helps Euro/chf also ) SNB selling Chf Last wk I showed how Euro despite neg $USD environment stalls randonly. I asked who wants to buy dollars now SNB & BOJ SNB FX Q2 reserves up big in Q2 as SNB buy $USDCHF. This keeps Euro offered. Today bidding UsdChf at .9050 caps Euro supports $EURCHF https://t.co/iqIk5Roz7j SNB selling Chf Last wk I showed how Euro despite neg $USD environment stalls randonly. I asked"
X Link 2020-08-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"US Bank Deposits - Turning Tide Stocks at recent lows but uptick's in US10's. Real yields forcing unwinds in $XA etc. Signs of a real recovery Precautionary deposits ($2.4T) turning pushing up US yields. In [--] $USD fell as money went offshore. https://on.ft.com/3gP6EFr https://on.ft.com/3gP6EFr"
X Link 2020-08-12T08:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ETH - $1500 China digitalisation XJP blockchain economy key macro theme. DCEP = @Apple store $ETH tech proxy with $USD debased. DCEP Launch - Winter Olympics - Feb [----]. Digitalisation today like Nasdaq 95/00: $DXY 50% $NDNQ 7X propels $ETH to old highs as $CNY back to lows"
X Link 2020-08-14T20:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"RISK - Dollar Pivotal. $USDCNH capped at (Aug 3) trendline. Mar [--] lows beckon. [--]. $USDCNH weakness has hit broad dollar (See Euro) crushing VIX helping to lift #NASDAQ. [--]. In [----] $USD weakness crushes $VIX driving $NDNQ to a 65% bounce. My bet - Dollar & Vix Continue Lower"
X Link 2020-08-20T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Over the last [--] years I have stated constantly that payment tokens are going to be the first casualty of China's International Retail Focused CBDC/DCEP PBOC DIGITAL CURRENCY CHIEF: RETAIL-FOCUSED CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY COULD PROVIDE BACKUP TO POPULAR MOBILE PAYMENT METHODS. PBOC DIGITAL CURRENCY CHIEF: RETAIL-FOCUSED CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY COULD PROVIDE BACKUP TO POPULAR MOBILE PAYMENT METHODS"
X Link 2021-03-25T11:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Foreigners : Its Time To Buy US Bonds @johnauthers writes. ISM Peak normally signals Equity Market Top. Inflation Concerns fully Priced https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-06/stocks-nirvana-rests-on-investor-faith-in-fed-s-inflation-dovessref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-06/stocks-nirvana-rests-on-investor-faith-in-fed-s-inflation-dovessref=PHpzF5TU"
X Link 2021-04-07T02:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Correlation & Safe Haven - China Govvie's - Title Contender : Treasuries role as a safe haven is not there anymore.There is an increasing possibility of using China bonds as an alternative.- Brandywine Every CIO is now allocating to China UBSAM https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/chinese-debt-becomes-an-unlikely-safe-haven-during-bond-turmoilsref=PHpzF5TU https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/chinese-debt-becomes-an-unlikely-safe-haven-during-bond-turmoilsref=PHpzF5TU"
X Link 2021-04-08T07:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Basically - Ameroca has woken up to the risk that China's hypersonic weapon is not the only thing that China is dominating the US on. China's CBDC wlll be a game changer for the dollar Fiat in general and also traditional #crypto and #DEFI"
X Link 2022-01-12T16:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"🛑Powell: "possible more than 1Reserve #Currency. US relinquish's Super Power Title - Powell confirms it. This prompts role of/exposure to #Dollar. It is good for & problematic for China. $CNY (TW) at 5yr highs- ($USD strength). #BTC positive at margin. CNY CBDC ++ On Your Own Newsflow & #SOTU clear: #Ukraine cant depend on West to enforce no fly zone. How does Taiwan feel. How does any nation holding US debt have any justification holding UST's now that America has given Russia a free pass on #genocide. Sanctions wont save lives. #BTC 150K https://t.co/ge2xM4Zh1c On Your Own Newsflow & #SOTU"
X Link 2022-03-02T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why Are Stocks Rallying ( [--] ) $XAUCNY (Inverted) vs $SPX China selling gold to buy US stocks the last bout of global volatility ( Covid ) they bought SPX in March [----] Why Are Stocks Rallying China selling $XAUCNY which corelates with rising $SPX We saw this in March [----] and again last week. https://t.co/lA77heuOCM Why Are Stocks Rallying China selling $XAUCNY which corelates with rising $SPX We saw this in March [----] and again last week. https://t.co/lA77heuOCM"
X Link 2022-03-02T18:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fiat & Gold are Dead. Long live $ETH & #BTC China needed strong FX pre CBDC launch at Olympics. USD/Gold strength contributed to CNY (TW) 17% jump from July [--] PBOC bought Gold at basket launch in Dec [--]. Recent TW RMB strngth despite Evergrande Tech Drop and Covid. Yen"
X Link 2022-03-28T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Strong Dollar Is Now Our Problem Risk sold off aggressively Apr1 when PBOC signalled a y weaker #FX Fix reversing [--] 1/2 years of $CNY strength. The effects were dramatic. $SPX 15% $NDQ 20% $DXY 6.5% #BTC 40%. Y'day China signalled a stronger fix lifting risk via"
X Link 2022-05-11T18:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yen came first look at relationship between Yen trade weighted and China's 18% apprecation of its own trading basket. If there was one country that China would like the CNY to displace its the Yen but the others are now following. Through out my career there were two markets"
X Link 2022-06-14T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"that everyone talked about when #Armageddon would eventually come. $JGB + $BTP. The #BOJ lost control of YCC today with [--] year yields now above 25bp YCC target. It's noteworthy that Yen & JGBstrading closely. @Pentosh1 made some really valulable obervations on this theme"
X Link 2022-06-14T20:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China Heavy Lift (ii) Is the China bounce starting to feed through to the US $ARKK bounces 9% today. You'll note $KWEB already ahead. $SPX was significant too. Could it be Commodities $GSCI drops 6% today. China Pork Prices cause inflation blowback which must be stopped. China Heavy Lift Commodities Topping CNY Stronger = Weaker Dollar Trade Deal In The Offing PBOC - '' Vigorous ''Stimulus Gov - Infrastructure Capex Risk Positive ++ https://t.co/oXr4z4N9wu China Heavy Lift Commodities Topping CNY Stronger = Weaker Dollar Trade Deal In The Offing PBOC - '' Vigorous ''Stimulus Gov -"
X Link 2022-07-06T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China's real estate investment fell 6.4%(Jan-July) China's property sales by floor area slid by 23.1% (Jan-July) https://www.yuantalks.com/the-wire-live-updates-on-china-666/arena_mid=15OteM16r0P64EYR5Pdl&v=2 https://www.yuantalks.com/the-wire-live-updates-on-china-666/arena_mid=15OteM16r0P64EYR5Pdl&v=2"
X Link 2022-08-15T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"43 Days & Counting (March [----] Redux ) In March [----] I noted a pattern of Asian Session Buying In $SPX that I picked up [--] weeks into a rally that took $SPX up 120%. That same pattern of Asian Session support and BID on US open is now [--] days counting and began jun [--]. See 👇"
X Link 2022-08-15T23:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CNY is now a tech Currency $CNY vs $KWEB $CNYUSD [--] Yr Fwd's Represent Chinese Capital Flows. They are turning and should drive #Bitcoin higher"
X Link 2023-01-16T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Binance Banking Partner Silvergate Will No Longer Process Retail Customers 100K. (2) Silvergate and Signature Suffering Huge Cash Withdrawls (WSJ) Crypto's main banks are borrowing cash from Tradfi instututions to meet customer withdrawls. Signature and Silvergate turn to government-chartered lenders after customer withdrawals surge. https://t.co/x6aisTkp2L Signature and Silvergate turn to government-chartered lenders after customer withdrawals surge. https://t.co/x6aisTkp2L"
X Link 2023-01-22T00:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"''The Battle Has Been Won'' Crypto Currencies historically put as an alternative to Fiat money. That Battle Has Been Won. Tech doesnt make for trusted money. Historically Infrastructure behind CB's give great credibility. Tell how CB's are Credible with Inflation at [--] Yr High In the central banking arena we went from Bitcoin/crypto doesnt work to its a financial activity that could exist under certain conditions. More education needed but central bankers are learning about Bitcoin and stablecoins. 😉https://t.co/w5Rt0sO0tj In the central banking arena we went from Bitcoin/crypto doesnt work"
X Link 2023-02-24T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"D'etente China / US (Part 2) 'Silly Balloon' Joe Biden has said he expects to see a thaw in US relations with Beijing Everything changed in terms of talking to one another. I think youre gonna see that begin to thaw very shortly Biden said. The Spy Balloon Was"
X Link 2023-05-22T00:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"D'etente China / USA ( Part [--] ) Win Win or Be Careful For What You Wish For. China is on the ropes. Currency above [----] vs the dollar. Dead Cat bounce in property dector. Youth UE @ 20%+ Chip/Tech war compounds weakness in property sector. Elon Musk Warns The China /"
X Link 2023-05-25T23:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"An Argument for Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-07-06T04:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A $28 Billion Wave of Selling Pressure Imperils China Stocks Chinas stock market is facing a wave of selling as money locked up in stock funds matures via @markets"
X Link 2023-07-10T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stress Is Building in Chinas $12 Trillion Onshore Credit Market via @business"
X Link 2023-07-12T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Institutional Investors shifting from China to India. Decided to try find some credible Indian commentary on foot of a Nikkei aricle I read. This is a new follow for me @Kanthan2030"
X Link 2023-08-06T15:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Brad_Setser how about Mexico. Currency appreciation suggests China is in on the act there too"
X Link 2023-08-07T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DOOM LOOP - Jackson Hole Hot Take ☘ [--]. Strctural Upward Shift In Inflation [--]. Global Government Deficits Will Continue To Grow No playbook: policymakers face up to changing global economy at Jackson Hole Excellent Article"
X Link 2023-08-28T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"⚠CHINA CONTROLS #Bitcoin For [--] years ( Check my Feed ) I've warned that there is one driver of #BTC. That driver is China Capital Flows & Associated PBOC/NDRC Policy Initiative's aimed at eliminating China's Perennial Achillies Heel; Capital Outflows. Thats why China's CBDC is so important. See [--] chart's attached. With China's Back To The Wall Its No Suprise Bitcoin trades heavy ( not to mention the Biden Administration's Attempt to Wreck The Crypto Space ) because China cannot afford to have huge outflows via Bitcoin. The worse the outlook for China The Worse It Will Be For Bitcoin. Here is"
X Link 2023-08-28T02:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China Does A Double Double PBOC TO CUT FOREX RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO"
X Link 2023-09-01T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Incendiary Cocktail - Oil Saudi Aramco IPO and rising oil price. Why would Saudi want to cut production. 2s/10s popped yesterday despite a weak jolts and benign NFP / PCE in reaction to Oil which is on the march. Stocks gave up their gains. The we get news rhat China has cut its US bond position ( they could still hold stocks and agencies ) to [--] year lows. Not what you want when #Cbo warns about US fiscal spending which is simply out of control. You wouldnt want rating agencies to downgrade that debt - oh wait"
X Link 2023-09-02T10:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RobinBrooksIIF is there any carry in MXN Japanese love a carry trade"
X Link 2023-09-02T21:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JohnTrades_99 @himyeticapital this is the most important chart in capital markets"
X Link 2023-09-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@WallStJesus @Trade_Haven overlay china's CFETS basket with this"
X Link 2023-09-13T10:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The #Fed Is Done - #Powell used the words proceed carefully six times during his presser. He didnt sound to me like he was itching to hike again said Mike Feroli Chief Econ JPM My video echoes similar theme. Powell mentions how far weve come twice"
X Link 2023-09-20T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This was deliberate. My view is that PBOC wants to be the new Bundesbank. Case in point - CNY CFETS rallies 17% thru 21/22. Why [--] reasons. E-CNY launches in Feb [--]. They cant have a repeat of Euro launch ( the only other reserve currency launched in last [---] years which collapsed on launch and required G7 intervention to rescue it). China was on its own. Personally I think they weaponised Covid and used it to establish Yuan credibility. Part of this process has been led by NDRC officials talking about dollar decoupling and calling out the profligate monetary and fiscal policies of the west"
X Link 2023-09-23T08:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Regulators Ask If Your Pant's Are Down. Jamie Dimon prophesying and proselytizing 7% US interest rates is something we should not take lightly. When he links the metphor of a ebbing tide catching swimmers with out their swim short's he is of course referring to risk of higher interest rates. Yesterday was a perfect lesson and perhaps a signal of regime change. Then two stories from the FT which reflect the butt naked swimmers. Unsure of the exact implications but a shrper focus by regulators on illiquid valuations with trillions in illiquid asset's could cause a wave of liquidations across"
X Link 2023-09-28T12:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gamechanger #AI OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture Masayoshi's Vision Fund ( aptly named ) loves AI and is an expert. He like Cathie Wood got caught up in China Tech and Crypto over the past 15-20 months. He is now partnering with the kind of team that will monetise the AI opportunity and allow him achieve his life long ambition to leave a legacy like Gates or jobs. Ai is only begining. Perhaps $NVDA is over priced but $ARM and $SOFT are a long term opportunity"
X Link 2023-09-28T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"do you think there is a chance they've actually started to contain the outflows. As the CBDC gains traction getting money out will become a huge probelm. for me US/CNY 2yr yield spead was a great proxy for capital outflows. Despite the huge move higher in rate differential's between them both 2Year speads have remained below key resistance for months. BItcoin was one of the previous outflow pathways but I think this pathway is firmly closed. What happens to China's BOP surplus when the outflows stop Fully agree they are stashing cash offshore. Nice work"
X Link 2023-09-28T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$USDYEN at [---] - Blame PBOC The Fed Began Hiking in March [--]. China began buying Dollar's in mid [----] well before the Fed began hiking. Why A) China knew an inflation shock was coming. B) To Show CNY "safe haven'' qualities with e-CNY launch in Feb [----] Winter Olympics concurrent with rising inflation in the west China began buying trillions of dollars as an inflation hedge no more so than against the Yen. Remember China was in the middle of a a Tech Wreck a Property Crises and Inflation outbreak in the West. Buying Dollars insulated them against the inflation shock and drove CNY CFETS up an"
X Link 2023-09-28T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🔴 JAPAN'S ECONOMY MINISTER SHINDO: JAPAN'S ECONOMY IS NO LONGER IN DEFLATION"
X Link 2023-09-29T05:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🧵- Why I think [---] Is The Top In $USDYEN Basically I think PBOC ( china ) weaponised/sold the Yen ( SOLD) during 2021/2022 to hedge themselves for rising inflation. ( see additional posts attached) How does buying Usd/Yen help China. Yen is atleast 10% of China trade weighted"
X Link 2023-09-29T07:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"B O N D V I G I L A N T E 'S G A T H E R @paulkrugman @LHSummers @ Dimon @ Larry Fink @BillAckman #Powell have all raised their concerns about the risk to higher rates in the past few weeks with Jamie Dimon warning that we need to prepare for rates at 7%. Krugman gives a decent expose on the reasons why rates are rising thought he admits that he is still unsure what happens' next. Make up your own mind. 1) Are High Interest Rates the New Normal Krugman @nytimes 2) Americas Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes @WSJ 3) Summer's Slide [--] 4) Ackman Perhaps this is a reverse signal given"
X Link 2023-09-30T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China Drive's The Dollar. ( Let's Hope It Stop's ) Chart [--] - what we want to avoid is a repeat of pattern A. Chart [--] - makes the case that China's activities with their FX reserves also impacted Global Bond Markets. See green Box [--] it shows a drop in China's FX reserves at the start of [----] coincides with a big dollar rally and more importantly a big push higher in US yields. what we dont want to happen is a continued liquidation by China of its Foreign Bond holdings repatriating to dollars"
X Link 2023-10-08T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"America was asleep at the wheel. Jake Sullivan is a key architect of American National Security Policy. Instead of demonising China he should have had his eye on the ball with the Middle_East. Like #Netenyahu he is a major threat to global peace and should be fired immediately"
X Link 2023-10-15T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fall in US inflation not just a blip says Fed official @Austan_Goolsbee backed up by @SecYellen"
X Link 2023-10-17T10:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🛑SAUDI FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS WITH IRANIAN COUNTERPART DISCUSS CURRENT MILITARY ESCALATION IN GAZA AND SURROUNDING AREAS The same problem from two perspectives Huge distance apart"
X Link 2023-10-18T14:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Brad_Setser isnt this china plundering its hidden reserves to stem capital outflow/stabilise the currency"
X Link 2023-11-03T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China Sends Valentines To America. The Wolf Warriors Are Slayed. @nytimes article highlights an english article on @xinhua highlighting a complete Volte Face in China's wolf warrior approach to the US. Most people think the turn in China / US reltions is a public relations exercise the impact of which will amount to nothing but a hill of beans. Me - I think this is a gamechanger in US/China relations. Detente Is Here "To me you are America": Xi Jinping's interactions with American people"
X Link 2023-11-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@StubbornFacts do you have a graph on this. look forward to following you"
X Link 2023-11-21T19:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVDA = 100X $APPL Way back in [----] ( see thread - Explains why I love @X a respostory of the greatest ideas ) I tried to frame what the arrival of $TSLA would look like for the future. The nearest comparable I felt was Apple purely on a life style choice and Climate Change wasn't really a thing back then. TSLA as a data and technology platform didn't enter my mind and while I could never have predicted the meterric ride @elonmusk has given us when I think about $NVDA and try and contectualise it we are not talking about Lifestyle choices here as in the case of TSLA or APPL or even the power"
X Link 2023-11-22T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Defcon [--] At SAFE/PBOC Chinas new forex party chief will oversee US$3 trillion in reserves while trying to stabilise the yuan Something #NQR ( not quite right here ) and perhaps an indication of real problems for the Chinese. Why Only recently Pan Gonsheng was appointed party Chair and Governor of PBOC. The elevation to party chair and his move from SAFE seen in my view atleast as the no2 agency in the PBOC/SAFE construct was a reward for his commendable handling of China's currency reserves and while CNY is at multiyear lows versus the dollar despite a tech wreck property unwind and covid"
X Link 2023-11-24T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency"
X Link 2023-12-08T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You make a good point but dynamics change all the time. Lets take Covid March [----]. Did anyone expect SPX to rally 130% The inflation shock was a 1970s phenomenon in a world of lower rates. How important is dollar strength. How many times in [--] years have we had an inflation shock the resulting dollar strength that came with rate hikes that were by any measure extraordinary Bonds are off their worst [--] year run in history. Investors certainly saw #tech as a safe haven( gold and yen two traditional safe havens either stalled ( XAU ) or collapsed ( Yen). If you are in the camp that thinks the"
X Link 2023-12-14T07:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"indeed a great thread. IMV China was gaming the US. After the downgrade they said nothing but as your data confirm's they we selling. Why Well you get a lot of barginaing power if the 2nd largest holder of US Debt follows through with sales of UST's which were already underpressure with the higher for longer mantra the fed were running trying to regain credibility having waited for [--] months before they hiked. In a scramble to rescue their credibility they were late to the party and then drank too much of their own higher for longer cool-aid. In q2 the process of raprochement began and"
X Link 2023-12-21T03:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Great Hall Of The People Accord China Sold US Bonds In Q3 But Rescued The US And China From Armegeddon. IMV China was gaming the US using its US bond holdings as leverage around the time Fitch downgraded US deb. After the downgrade they said nothing publically but as @Brad_Setser thread confirms the Chinese were deifinately selling. Why Well you get a lot of barginaing power if the 2nd largest holder of US Debt follows through with sales of UST's where yields were already pressurised the Feds higher for longer mantra as they tried to regain credibility lost having waited for [--] months before"
X Link 2023-12-21T03:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Achtung Swiss Franc [----] Peak Broken- Is China Involved Chart [--] UsdChf Us10y Spx (inv) Snb FX reserves Chart [--] China Trade Weighted Rmb vs Switzerland FX Reserves Chart [--] Repeat Chart [--] with China CFETS = TW RMB Chart 4(a) China US Bond Holdings vs SNB FX reserves (Inverted LHS -1Y) Chart 4(b) Swiss FX Reserves vs China Trade Surplus Chart 4(c) Swiss FX Reserves vs China Trade Surplus vs Spx. Observation [--] charts show a strong link between Swiss FX reserves China Trade Surplus China Trade weighted RMB SPX US [--] year yields. Any help understanding the Asset flows appreciated. Beginning 2009"
X Link 2023-12-23T03:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"China Capital A/c Opening Up Coming sooner than one thinks and given the recent economic turmoil it would be completely unexpected. Here are two examples of small scale convertibility as part of a stepping stone to e-RMB stable coin at the heart of international commerce. China Unveils CBDC Machine for Foreign Passport Holders - China has launched its first automated digital yuan wallet (CBDC)-opening machine for overseas passport holders. China will continue to work on accepting foreign bank cards mobile payments cash and account services to create a more convenient payment environment for"
X Link 2023-12-29T02:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GOLD- China bought massive amounts of Gold in [----] when it decoupled RMB from the dollar. They did so for a reason. When inflation ( China undoubtedly weaponised inflation shock ) spiked they wanted to show RMB was a reliable safe haven and were huge sellers when everyone was buying. Id say this. Many people in the market predicting a gold break out. On xau/usd it looks like we can break a tripple top. But look at XAU/CNY perhaps you dont care too much for my line drawing but Id just say this. Covid created the biggest inflation shock in 50/70 years. Everyone is bullish. Yet look at chart 1"
X Link 2023-12-29T04:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How China talked markets out of a run on the renminbi"
X Link 2024-01-01T22:36Z [----] followers, 19.2K engagements
"Covid Diagnoses Are Rising NASDAQ BIOTECH INDEX HITS NEAR 2-YEAR HIGH LAST UP 2.4% https://t.co/SA5hDb4bFx NASDAQ BIOTECH INDEX HITS NEAR 2-YEAR HIGH LAST UP 2.4% https://t.co/SA5hDb4bFx"
X Link 2024-01-02T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🛑 Gamechanger #AI Part [--] 🛑 Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: Generative AI is the single most significant platform transition in computing history. In the last [--] years nothing has been this big. Its bigger than PC its bigger than mobile and its gonna be bigger than the internet by far. AMD $AMD CEO Lisa Su: If you think about the technology trends that weve seen over the last [--] or [--] years - whether youre talking about the internet or the mobile phone revolution or how PCs have changed things - AI is [--] times [---] times more than that in terms of how its impacting everything that we do."
X Link 2024-01-07T22:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China sidelines PBOC ( QE Beckons ) With more direct supervision from the party perhaps its ability to resist quantitative easing will be diminished"
X Link 2024-01-08T15:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BTC ETF's In The Cake A thread 🧵 Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets: A thread 🧵 Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets:"
X Link 2024-01-08T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook according to Switzerlands central bank chief https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-swiss-franc-strength-is-shifting-inflation-snb-s-jordan-saysutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-swiss-franc-strength-is-shifting-inflation-snb-s-jordan-saysutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter"
X Link 2024-01-18T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TSMC expects up to 25% revenue growth"
X Link 2024-01-19T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Brad_Setser @Mike_Weilandt i would say this. most academic's just look at the China FX equation from the USDCNY perspective. That's only one side of the balance sheet and China has specifically told us that the Basket is equally important"
X Link 2024-01-19T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Citigroup told private bankers serving Chinese clients not to discuss the yuan or hedging the currency risk when making trips to the mainland according to people familiar with the matter via @markets"
X Link 2024-01-19T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Peace In Our Time ( China / USA ) for me more signs that the Biden Administration will go soft on China to help ramp the economy to try atleast tohave the economy running hot and consumer's believing in Bidenomics. I think CHina and US under Biden want anything but a Trump Victory and they came to that agreement at Apec with the ground's for a deal or accord laid down when Schumer visited Beijing and met with Xi prior to Oct 22nd. What got them there US yields above 5% was the equivalent of mutual assured destruction for them both. GOP lawmakers met with Democratic pushback in China"
X Link 2024-01-23T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@investor1927 short AUD/CNY"
X Link 2024-01-24T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Biden administration's emerging economic message"
X Link 2024-01-24T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"acually the opposite. China rallied its FX basket ( now = Ranking to USDCNY) when Covid roofed inflation. They weaponized inflation shock showing CNY was strong. This immediate action to appreciate their FX basket contrasts sharply from the Fed's policy response which took them a full [--] months before they responded with the 1st rate hike. Yet no-one in academia is debating the contrasting credibilty gap that action by China vs the Inaction by the Fed will mean for long term investors looking at CNY as a store of value in inflationary or war footing environment. Why So you only have to look"
X Link 2024-01-24T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@declanganley this is what we need in Ireland. If it happen's Im joining. @IFAmedia The German farmers revolt Dont miss spikeds exclusive report from Berlin where farmers are rebelling against green tyranny. Watch share and let us know what you think.👇 https://t.co/WUNMtXQN67 The German farmers revolt Dont miss spikeds exclusive report from Berlin where farmers are rebelling against green tyranny. Watch share and let us know what you think.👇 https://t.co/WUNMtXQN67"
X Link 2024-01-24T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Chinese Foreign Stock ETF Purchases Takes a Pause In recent weeks Chinese demand for both Nikkei and SPX has helped spur these indices to all time highs. Nikkei has slaughtered China large cap in the last [--] months alone as Chinese Capital ran for the hills. On some products alone Chinese clients are paying anything from 20-40% premium to access overseas assets. Perhaps it's time they had a look at their home market after the steps taken this week. via @WSJ"
X Link 2024-01-25T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Robert Kennedy - Who Will Be King 💯 Washington is now worrying about @RobertKennedyJr. The view is that he cant win the electoral college but he is profoundly impacting the race both through ideas and by pulling large numbers of voters away from both Trump and Biden. He has the highest approval ratings and is out Washington is now worrying about @RobertKennedyJr. The view is that he cant win the electoral college but he is profoundly impacting the race both through ideas and by pulling large numbers of voters away from both Trump and Biden. He has the highest approval ratings and is out"
X Link 2024-01-27T13:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Higher US interest Rates -CRE Obliteration- Inadequate Regional Bank loan loss provisions & mark to market losses on bond portfoliosJapanese Banks exposure to US CRE synching with Chinese property related liquidity trap. Rates to property to banks to cross border dominoe effect. Dangers increasing rapidly of doom loop.Achtung 💥⚠ Shares of Japanese bank Aozora are collapsing. Stock's on steepest 2-day drop since it became a public company. Why Bank reported massive exposure to US commercial real estate. https://t.co/3WXmlFEny2 Shares of Japanese bank Aozora are collapsing. Stock's on steepest"
X Link 2024-02-02T08:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Move Over Gold - this chart makes the point succintly. Gold is worthless. So is cocaine if you legalise drugs. AI Tech is the new safe haven The #gold mining sector is the worst sector in the entire stock market we can all agree on this Today $META is adding $220 billion in market cap in first [--] minutes of trading. That is nearly the total combined value of every gold miner on the planet ($277 billion) $GDX $NEM https://t.co/frS2E8lkQu The #gold mining sector is the worst sector in the entire stock market we can all agree on this Today $META is adding $220 billion in market cap in first 30"
X Link 2024-02-02T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Powell to @60Minutes '' Goldilocks ''. Carry On Broadcast Ends Stocks Soar Monday. h/t @biancoresearch"
X Link 2024-02-03T01:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Evergrande - Market Clearing Event on China. 🛑 (part [--] ) The similarities between the collapse in the early 1990's Japanese Banking Sector and the collapse in China's property market are plentiful. Last week's Evergrande Bankrupcty and the ''national team'' buying of Chinese ETF's may be important non co-incidental events representing an inflection point in Chinese Markets. The price action in Chinese markets yesterday was historicaly bad showing a turn wont come east. It was the 6th straight day with 3x more declining than advancing stocks in the Shanghai Composite. That's never happened in"
X Link 2024-02-06T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@biancoresearch starlink"
X Link 2024-02-06T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@albertedwards99 @dailychartbook look at Gold vs CNY when Inflation turned higher. Gold is managed by China. it aint going anywhere"
X Link 2024-02-07T12:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yellen Stable Coins & $USDT"
X Link 2024-02-07T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There is another agenda. cc @albertedwards99 China want's a strong CNY becasue it want's to avoid the mistake made by the Europeans when it launched the Euro and it dropped precipitously to .83cent. G7 had to intervene. China didnt have this luxury when it launched the e-cny in Feb [----]. My view is that China weaponised Covid. They knew it was coming and rallied their FX basket 17%meanwhile the dummies at the Fed took ( [--] months before the first hike ). Not only that China sold gold and yen neutering the safr haven effect that one would ordinarily associate with the biggest inflation and war"
X Link 2024-02-07T20:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Important Thread for all Monetarists. New Zealand - Canary In The Coal Mine. The RBNZ invented the 2% inflation target in [----]. The first developed the world central bank to do so. The Fed adopted a 2% inflation target in [----] [--] years after the RBNZ. NZ is always important in Central Bank Policy Circles. Note Bene. 3/5 Even though the story above is about one bank (ANZ) forecasting hikes because inflation is not under control the market in New Zealand has had a dramatic turn toward this thinking in the last few weeks. The orange line in the chart below shows the probability of a move at"
X Link 2024-02-10T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Masayoshi Son's (SOFTBANK) $100 billion effort to create an AI chip rival to Nvidia"
X Link 2024-02-17T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ursula von der Leyen calls on EU to subsidise defence production Ireland Never Voted For This Kind Of European Defense Pact We are on a slippery slope where our European Membership will pull us into the Ukraine fiasco . Watch the government try to introduce policies like this via the back door and the electorate will have no opportunity to have their say"
X Link 2024-02-19T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"National Team buys CNY after historic incremental cut in Chinese interest rates determined to defend domestic market ⚡#BREAKING China's central bank cuts the 5-year Loan Prime Rate #LPR by 25BPs to 3.95% from 4.20% in February the first cut since August and the most on record. 1-year LPR at 3.45% unchanged. #China #ratecut https://t.co/v87x6NiPfI https://t.co/xuuWEFJJxd ⚡#BREAKING China's central bank cuts the 5-year Loan Prime Rate #LPR by 25BPs to 3.95% from 4.20% in February the first cut since August and the most on record. 1-year LPR at 3.45% unchanged. #China #ratecut"
X Link 2024-02-20T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"ECB are shitting themselves about the doom link between bank deposits and bond yields hence they want a digital Euro to be for transaction purposes only and wont support / wil actively block a defi ecosystem tht highlights the enormous wealth transfer from deposit holders to banks who support the BIS CB system. Its a PONZI and I wish we had people like Issing Tietmeyer and Schlessinger to call a halt to it"
X Link 2024-03-02T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bruised by stock market Chinese rush into banned bitcoin"
X Link 2024-03-03T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Alipay WeChat Pay ease the way for foreign travellers to make payments in China ( Mass Adoption Of E-CNY slowly and then all at onece. ) e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency https://t.co/HxJarWC75Q e-CNY Mass Adoption. slowly at once then all at once China Singapore to let each others tourists pay with digital yuan as Beijing seeks to globalise its e-CNY currency https://t.co/HxJarWC75Q"
X Link 2024-03-20T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"SNB Has No Target For Swiss Franc Vice President Martin Schlegel said. This is one Im watching closely. Last week the SNB caught the market on the hop cutting rates unexpectedly. Back In January the outgoing President of the SNB - Jordan said The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook while they may not have a target for the Swiss Franc they certainly want it weaker noting that all time strength of the franc at the end of [----] leading Jordan to suggest that very little risk that price gains will rebound past the 2% upper end of the"
X Link 2024-03-27T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"QE - CHINA In rare monetary policy shift Xi tells China central bank to buy treasury bonds https://sc.mp/ft4vlutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3256967&utm_medium=share_widget https://sc.mp/ft4vlutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3256967&utm_medium=share_widget"
X Link 2024-03-28T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Swiss Franc Top ( Iv ) Japan - Hiking Rates Swizerland - Cutting Rates and toying with economic disaster per the below. Short Swiss/Yen https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/03/25/the-eu-plot-to-ensnare-switzerland/ 🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect the inflation outlook according to Switzerlands central bank chief https://t.co/YPmOmvCYS0 https://t.co/irAW9BWV6Q https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/03/25/the-eu-plot-to-ensnare-switzerland/ 🛑🛑🛑Swiss Franc Top The Swiss francs recent gains are significant enough to materially affect"
X Link 2024-04-07T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OIl - Inflation FeedStock nothing rocket science about this last week Biden declared he was going to start re-filling the SPR then I had a look at how low it was. we also know the US had assumed the mantle of the worlds biggest oil producer Its clear that the US ramped production of Crude and drained the SPR to crush the oil price but now with Saudi/OPec production cuts and ongoing risks of escalation between Iran and Israel the inflation cracker looks set to disappoint. And here's the thing Oil aint helping keep all those other commodity prices ( Copper Cacao Coffee ) capped either. Some"
X Link 2024-04-08T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Largest Block Trade Ever On FED Rate Direction Perhaps Yellen and Brainard know something 🔴 US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I'M CONFIDENT THAT INFLATION WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN - ( Yesterday ) 🔴 WH ECONOMIC ADVISOR BRAINARD: I EXPECT STEADY PROGRESS ON INFLATION IN THE COMING MONTHS. (Speaking today back to back with Yellen Brainard of course a former contender for Fed Governor If Biden wins the election a shoe-in IMHO ). The White House have no qualms what so ever speaking with an informed view about BIG DATA Releases. They did it a lot when Inflation was shredding Biden's popularity"
X Link 2024-04-09T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part iii) $NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part ii) Jamie Dimon Agree's. On Nov [--] [----] I highlighted in the thread below - ( image [--] ) that we need to look at inventions like the wheel to get a sense of the real value of AI. $NVDA is 80% above the level of that post. The perspective I was https://t.co/vsKOpzRpam $NVDA = 100X $APPL (Part ii) Jamie Dimon Agree's. On Nov [--] [----] I highlighted in the thread below - ( image [--] ) that we need to look at inventions like the wheel to get a sense of the real value of AI. $NVDA is 80% above the level of that post. The perspective I was"
X Link 2024-04-09T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"are people exiting $ORDI into $Trio Did you know we are dropping a bunch of EARLY pre-runes projects right now Do you want @OrdinalsBot perks and exclusive access Hint: $TRIO is our utility token 👀 Did you know we are dropping a bunch of EARLY pre-runes projects right now Do you want @OrdinalsBot perks and exclusive access Hint: $TRIO is our utility token 👀"
X Link 2024-04-16T00:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bitcoin Concern ( Part iii ) - Nov [----] Redux [--]. I've argued on this thread and on countless occasions previously that there is an existential link between Bitcoin and the $RMB. This relationship has its genesis from when China's FX reserves dropped by [---] Trio Dollars in 2014/17 a period which led China to devalue the $RMB by 3% in August [----] with a consequent 8% drop in $SPX. (Kinda what's started to happen in the last few days) Bitcoin ( and correspondingly $USDT ) are very correlated with $CNY and represent a pathway to outflow from China. If ever there was a time that Chinese HNW' s"
X Link 2024-04-16T02:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MortimerleePaul would love your take on this"
X Link 2024-04-21T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yellen criticizes Summers on inflation: He's been wrong in the past via @politico https://politi.co/3xXkZNz https://politi.co/3xXkZNz"
X Link 2024-05-01T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🎯Oracle of Wall Street Meredith Whitney Op-Ed US Mortgage Reform Could Unleash $1-$2 Trio In Stimulus on a proposal to allow Freddie Mac to enter the home equity loan market. This could be a very big deal https://on.ft.com/3y7bFqI https://on.ft.com/3y7bFqI"
X Link 2024-05-03T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China was collateral damage. Thank you for highlighting the interview with Yellen. No politician will ever admit collusion but read the interview in the context of democrats ( not exclusively the domain of the Democratic Party ) who witnessed an attack on the citadel of America on Jan6th. Trump like any despot in waiting had proved himself a threat to democracy itself. Yellen talks about the threat to American democracy and its institutions and the ordinary middle class people who have no college education and do not live on the east/west coasts who are disenfranchised and demoralised because"
X Link 2024-05-12T11:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China killed Libra in [--] months by offering PayPal Strike visa and Mastercard to to its international payments system. They did the same for Alipay and WeChat pay. China will create mass adoption of RMB via e-channels like this. The next step will be to open capital account and create an RMB stable coin where RMB fx rate vs its basket never moves. a true stable coin 💰"
X Link 2024-05-12T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"💯true. China will not devalue. I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB https://t.co/IjIc5rEV4A I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB https://t.co/IjIc5rEV4A"
X Link 2024-05-13T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China signalled a win win outcome in the weeks before the ASEAN Biden/Xi summit. Its no coincidence that the recent upward blip coincided with the biggest drop in US yields in [--] years. No surprises the Fed pivoted in December nor importantly was the Chinese stimulus package announced [--] weeks before ASEAN. The trigger for all this was a meeting between Xi and Schumer on weekend of 0ct [--]. Youll notice the China bashing died down too. Now that the Fed cant cut Biden has reverted to China full frontal because its the only thing that American voters will give him credit for with regard to"
X Link 2024-05-15T06:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China Sells Record Sum of U.S. Debt Amid Signs of Diversification China sold a record amount of Treasury and U.S. agency bonds amounting to $53.3 billion in the first quarter highlighting a move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist https://t.co/sXpDSVzcgB China sold a record amount of Treasury and U.S. agency bonds amounting to $53.3 billion in the first quarter highlighting a move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist https://t.co/sXpDSVzcgB"
X Link 2024-05-16T21:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China GDP growth for Q2 - forecast points to a slowdown from 7.2% to 3.0% 7/ Finally the combination of these indicators for April with the PMI survey indices gives a first indication of growth for Q2 pointing to a slowdown to 3% from 7.2% in Q1. https://t.co/s1My3VZZWc 7/ Finally the combination of these indicators for April with the PMI survey indices gives a first indication of growth for Q2 pointing to a slowdown to 3% from 7.2% in Q1. https://t.co/s1My3VZZWc"
X Link 2024-05-17T09:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Taiwanese leader Lai sends dangerous signals with pro-independence speech: Beijing This will have repercussions https://sc.mp/6m4njutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3263331&utm_medium=share_widget https://sc.mp/6m4njutm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3263331&utm_medium=share_widget"
X Link 2024-05-20T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🎯US RIA's 401K Pension Money Hold Only 3% of Bitcoin ETFs Only 3% of the outstanding ETF mkt Cap was held by Investment Advisors completely blowing up the narrative that "the Boomers are coming." 1/8 🧵on what I see in the Spot BTC 13F filings Conclusions I feared the Spot BTC ETFs were effectively "orange FOMO poker chips." The Q1 13F filings only further convinced me this was the case. Only 3% of the outstanding ETF mkt Cap was held by Investment Advisors 1/8 🧵on what I see in the Spot BTC 13F filings Conclusions I feared the Spot BTC ETFs were effectively "orange FOMO poker chips." The"
X Link 2024-05-20T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Goldman & Morgan Stanley Upgrade China"
X Link 2024-05-20T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Amazon Halts Nvidia SuperChip orders awaiting upgrade - Buy The Dip According to @Munster_Gene that is if you get one. Munster: the AI build is just starting. https://on.ft.com/4c4G4oj https://on.ft.com/4c4G4oj"
X Link 2024-05-21T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Keidanren :Japan Business Lobby Agree 5.6% avg pay hike Highest in [--] years. Its my experience having followed Japanese Intervention for [--] Years that the MOF in combination with the BOJ are amongst the most experienced masters of the Dark Art's Of FX Intervention there is. A few weeks ago the two agencies overcame their tendency to bicker giving a joint press statement about the weak Yen. That both agencies were in alignment was a turning point and sure enough they intervened within the following [--] hours. Consistently they win every time all the time. This time should not be any different."
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My sense is that with labour shortages and a global re-set on inflation there is a risk that the BOJ get's trapped where the Yen weakens on every occasion a hike is necessary creating a ''sell japan mentality''. We are at major resistance in USD/Yen going back to [----] with @jnordvig highlighting the widening rate differentials in favour of Japan"
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nikkei is also sitting at multi-year resistance with many foreigners hedged buyers of the Japanese stock market. We've already seen suggestions that there is legislation being considered that would give the likes of Kampo ( the whale of foreign bond and equity investing ) a tax break if they booked their massive profits. Kampo may have already begun to reduce their foreign bond positions"
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Brad_Setser points out that the MOF have equally massive profits from their previous interventions between 2008/2011 with the last intervention ( massive ) before Kuroda opened the spigots of monetary easing with Usd/Yen at [-----]. Another factor to take on board is international holdings of Japanese T-Bills is 60%. Rising front end yields in anticipation of another 2-3 rate hikes this year could see foreigners capitulate. Specifically I think China may be the holder of these bills running a short Yen position against them. At 60% of total holdings foreign holdings is nearly [---] Trillion"
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why Might China hold Japanese T-Bills Post Covid and still 14-16 months BEFORE the Fed hiked China bought Dollars across the board to strengthen their currency basket. As chart shows there is a very strong relationship between China's CFETS basket and UsdJPY. The FX basket rallied 17% while global inflation was exploding yet the Fed sat on its hands for [--] months before they took action. Usd/Yen rallied from 103-115 before the [--] year swap rate regained its pre-covid levels. It was nearly a year after that before rate markets began pricing in FED hikes at which point USD/YEN exploded. Japan"
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"my view remains that we are very much at the top of the range in Usd/yen. The pay deals will increase pressure on BOJ to hike widening differentials with the Dollar. I am surprised more wasn't made of Yellens slap down on intervention. Any hint from the FED that they would have to reverse course and tighten again would be a game changer. My long time north star on Japan Jesper Koll called the pivot in rate markets months ago and believes that USD/yen is going to [---]. He sent me this great chart deposit offer that the largest e-bank in Japan is offering to clients if they switch out of Yen"
X Link 2024-05-22T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"NY FED Has Extended Its $ 0.5Trio Bailout Facility to Japan's Norinchukin https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/12/the-new-york-fed-has-extended-its-half-trillion-dollar-bailout-facility-to-a-sprawling-japanese-bank-youve-never-heard-of/ https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/12/the-new-york-fed-has-extended-its-half-trillion-dollar-bailout-facility-to-a-sprawling-japanese-bank-youve-never-heard-of/"
X Link 2024-05-30T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Clueless On Inflation. Two quality analysts different conclusions"
X Link 2024-05-31T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChorzempaMartin a close friend and top economist rebutted with this"
X Link 2024-06-01T08:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@robin_j_brooks do you think that the evolution of the CBDC is in part responsible for curtailing outflows Please address this subject frequently. Along with the US deficit its one of the most important data sets out there. 🎯"
X Link 2024-06-08T21:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"IMF Rant On US Deficit"
X Link 2024-06-09T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Super Mario could give weak EU a shot in the arm https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/super-mario-could-give-weak-eu-a-shot-in-the-arm/ https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/super-mario-could-give-weak-eu-a-shot-in-the-arm/"
X Link 2024-06-10T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blackstone eyes $10bn in Japan deals amid buyout fund influx via @NikkeiAsia https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Blackstone-eyes-10bn-in-Japan-deals-amid-buyout-fund-influx https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Blackstone-eyes-10bn-in-Japan-deals-amid-buyout-fund-influx"
X Link 2024-06-10T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My dad a country doctor took down black flags that adorned our town during the hunger strikes so for me @sinnfein would never be a credible party of government. I left the country in [----] and returned recently to a much changed country. I was astounded to see that the next generation had forgotten the murderous link to Sinn Fein's past as the political wing of the provies. I applaud you identifying what in effect looks like a command and control structure within the party where decisions are still made at the top and forced down on party machine. The clandestine link with ''central command''"
X Link 2024-06-12T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ECB Telling Porkies 🐽 The push toward completion of Capital Markets Union Is on. @ecb Piero Cipollone right off the bat misleads his audience saying Euro share in international reserves has been constant at 19% for the last [--] years. Go back to [----] when Euro lost credibility Euro share in FX reserves was well above 25% depending on the data set one uses. During the crises Euro weighting dropped to 17% as the attached chart shows. Its clear its recovered a little but Euro is caught in a giant pincer movement between the Dollar and China's $RMB. To try and and avoid the Euro getting lost in"
X Link 2024-06-12T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BItcoin - STRONGLY OFFERED AT 70K🎯 two people both market veteran's have noted strong offers in the market at 70k One knows well my strong views of the relationship between China's CBDC ambitions and its impact on BItcoin. Bitcoin and China Outflows - Matched April saw huge outflows from China as attempts to stabilise the economy yield average results. meanwhile Bitcoin records strong inflows. in effect China outflows match off against Bitcoin ETF purchases. End result - Bitcoin Quiet. here https://t.co/IdkGHDku95 Bitcoin and China Outflows - Matched April saw huge outflows from China as"
X Link 2024-06-13T11:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Draghi Lobs [--] or [--] At China He is bang on🎯 about China's FX Policy. Two chart's from WSJ show how China has kept inflation under control since covid and as a result its nominal FX rate is down 15%. Draghi traditionally moderate has issued a call to action. Shows you how tenuous Europe's position is in the world today caught in the pincer movement between the US and China. The European Parliament Elections have clearly been a wake up call. Not before long. https://on.ft.com/45rOe7K https://on.ft.com/45rOe7K"
X Link 2024-06-14T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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