# ![@CrosscheckC Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1230430349068570624.png) @CrosscheckC CrosscheckC

CrosscheckC posts on X about $you, $joby, $onew, $cjtcn the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1230430349068570624/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1230430349068570624/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +4,648%
- [--] Month [------] -15%
- [--] Months [------] -28%
- [--] Year [------] +12%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1230430349068570624/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1230430349068570624/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Months [--] +2.60%
- [--] Year [--] -29%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1230430349068570624/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1230430349068570624/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.51%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +11%
- [--] Year [-----] +28%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1230430349068570624/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1230430349068570624/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [nfts](/list/nfts)  [us election](/list/us-election) 

**Social topic influence**
[$you](/topic/$you), [$joby](/topic/$joby), [$onew](/topic/$onew), [$cjtcn](/topic/$cjtcn) #1, [$hzo](/topic/$hzo), [$achr](/topic/$achr), [$krus](/topic/$krus), [$ulcc](/topic/$ulcc), [$algt](/topic/$algt), [$duol](/topic/$duol)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@deepsailcapital](/creator/undefined) [@waterworldcapi1](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined) [@realligercub](/creator/undefined) [@revcap](/creator/undefined) [@atelicinvest](/creator/undefined) [@batmongoose](/creator/undefined) [@anshpatel1001](/creator/undefined) [@dannyocean555](/creator/undefined) [@couragewins](/creator/undefined) [@stockgutter](/creator/undefined) [@grandtokamak](/creator/undefined) [@rebrandasy](/creator/undefined) [@winsteadscap](/creator/undefined) [@pd13158196](/creator/undefined) [@aschulz888](/creator/undefined) [@c95524cj](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) [@emogirl](/creator/undefined) [@riskrewardskew](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[CLEAR Secure, Inc. (YOU)](/topic/$you) [Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)](/topic/$joby) [Onewater Marine, Inc. (ONEW)](/topic/$onew) [Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR)](/topic/$achr) [Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)](/topic/$ulcc) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (SNCY)](/topic/$sncy) [Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)](/topic/$patk) [Auroracoin (AUR)](/topic/$aur) [Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)](/topic/$alk) [LCI Industries (LCII)](/topic/$lcii) [Polaris Inc. (PII)](/topic/$pii) [United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)](/topic/$ual) [JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU)](/topic/$jblu) [Mister Car Wash, Inc.  (MCW)](/topic/$mcw) [The Upsider AI ($UP)](/topic/$up) [Soho House & Co Inc (SHCO)](/topic/$shco) [Dutch Bros, Inc. (BROS)](/topic/$bros) [Brunswick Corporation (BC)](/topic/$bc) [PoolTogether (POOL)](/topic/$pool) [Butterfly Network, Inc. (BFLY)](/topic/$bfly) [Muhdo Hub (DNA)](/topic/$dna) [Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)](/topic/$dal) [Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)](/topic/$modg) [Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW)](/topic/$mpw) [Magic Eden (ME)](/topic/$me) [IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)](/topic/$ionq) [COCOCOIN (COCO)](/topic/$coco) [MetalCore (MCG)](/topic/$mcg) [Skywest Inc (SKYW)](/topic/$skyw) [QuantumScape Corporation (QS)](/topic/$qs) [Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)](/topic/$gnrc) [Udemy, Inc.  (UDMY)](/topic/$udmy) [Oatly Group AB (OTLY)](/topic/$otly) [The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)](/topic/$smg) [Southwest Airlines Co (LUV)](/topic/$luv) [Warby Parker, Inc. (WRBY)](/topic/$wrby) [Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)](/topic/$hog) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)](/topic/$abr) [Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH)](/topic/$celh)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@DeepSailCapital Boats & powersport: $hzo $onew $mbuu $mcft $pii $patk US low cost carriers: $ulcc $algt $sncy Science projects/froth: $aur $joby $achr $rgti $ionq $soun $vuzi $rcat $rekr $iot High-flyer decels: $krus $duol $wise_ln Other: $kind $up $cjt_cn $iot $are $aht_ln $coco"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1878861337767629204)  2025-01-13T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BazCap $YOU $TSP $AUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1487151203284889604)  2022-01-28T19:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LSValue Flying taxis: $joby $achr $lilm $blde $evtl $embk Autonomous trucking: $tsp $aur Cash Incinerator Reopeners: $you $mcg $rent US Network Airlines: $aal $ha $skyw ESG/Lidar junk: $lidr $lazr $qs $gevo Probably boat dealers ltl truckers bnpl fashion ecom too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1513710220295421955)  2022-04-12T02:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@NegativeGW @MadThunderdome Boats: $mbuu $mcft $hzo $onew $bc Powersports: $pii $doo_cn LTL & express air cargo: $cjt_cn $saia $odfl US airlines: $ha $ual $sncy $algt Truck OEMs (not yet): $pcar $alsn Backyard (too late): $pool $swim $lesl $cook $gnrc $foxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1612235108299194370)  2023-01-08T23:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SpecialSitsNews $HZO $ONEW - overearning boat sales rolling levered up ests silly - catalyst through summer $SCHO (formerly $MCG) - decades of cash burn (accel) lotta debt cash obligations N18M $CJT_CN - perpetually -ve FCF cargo airline at crazy mult into cycl peak misunderstood unit econ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1638679113904066560)  2023-03-22T23:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@IHaveNoCapital @DeepSailCapital How do you validate mgmts assertion that their tech is better/special"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1639000758073937951)  2023-03-23T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@institLPGP @LionheartInves1 Also pls someone send me these studies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1642620054096211968)  2023-04-02T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 $algt $cjt_cn $mpw $hzo $seat $shco $bfly $lilm $trup $krus $kind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1658608382041808898)  2023-05-16T23:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Overlevered overearning capex or floorpan-intensive consumer cyclicals with bad data and misunderstood decrementals trading above peers w/ $cjt_cn $onew $hzo $algt $ha $sncy Medium-term: $seat $you $trup $lilm $eh $joby $kind $pkg $duol $udmy $shco"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1666136602907750405)  2023-06-06T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 @NicholasRainos1 @NiceQuarterGuys @Tom___Web Its pretty good food definitely not chipotle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1671185658721837062)  2023-06-20T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@lurker8679 @orrdavid Basically the same as air traffic liability - in a distress scenario thats effectively restricted cash cause card companies can holdback $1bn (usually) of cash from future bookings if theres adverse events Airlines go bk way before they run out of cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1674517309216497664)  2023-06-29T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@VPCapital100 @LennyIce Ill counterpoint example frm prior pod life: - if I meet [--] airline mgmt teams quarterly each by end of year [--] why ask high level biz model Qs His topics can be ST translated: How does biz work = Color on regional / subseg margin profile How things evolving this month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1674535617118494722)  2023-06-29T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 @FriendlyBearSA It makes sense that if I set a machine learning algo loose it would just find carnage-ready shorts and blow up out the stops w/ gamma squeeze. I have no proof of this. BUT. It makes perfect sense there would be no proof JET FUEL CANT SQUEEZE STEEL MEMES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1674568776442863616)  2023-06-30T00:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 @FriendlyBearSA Somehow my BBG search history or email archives have found their way into RenTech training data and some mathlete in a lab code is preparing an abstract on the alpha-Rich inverse-Crosscheck factor. I fear it will be incorporated into Barras next model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1674570573219856385)  2023-06-30T00:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@emo__girl_ @DeepSailCapital They spun a clerical box-checking step as airworthiness approval and it squeezed on flows Nice trade kudos. Still 90% downside Market leader is easy when there is no market theyre fantastic sellers of equity tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1678821022806470687)  2023-07-11T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@non_consensus @DeepSailCapital Thats my point - tho if youre not neutral froth you have some embedded view. And when the factor rotates there are asymmetries on the other side. Obvious shorts arent securities analysis - theyre a way to monetize duration/vol advantage or risk-framework/sizing skill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1678839324379344898)  2023-07-11T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 I just assume everything you post during rotations is 3d chess double reverse psychology"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1678839882892943365)  2023-07-11T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Boats have imploded not in price: $mcft $mbuu $hzo $onew US dom fwd airfares off cliff: $ha $ulcc $jblu $sncy $jblu EVTOL squeeze; $lilm $eh $joby $schr High mult/cash incinerator/decel: $you $duol $krus $otly Freighter glut: $cjt_cn $atsg Maybe: $bfly $opk $dna $wk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1680968633785229313)  2023-07-23T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Still boats $mcft $mbuu $onew $mbuu Still US domestic air $HA $ALGT $SNCY $JBLU EVTOLs but mind factors: $joby $achr High-mult consumer decel: $krus $duol $you $smg $coco $otly Gene bs: $dna $flgt $me Misunderstood melting ponzi: $cjt_cn $shco Revisit: $kind $opra $seat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1688971817514373138)  2023-08-08T17:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Quintzy @stocktw99 @DeepSailCapital Archetypes of cyclical peak shorts: - were not cyclical anymore translation: did a bunch of M&A at the top trying to change the story but the cycle will cycle $onew $hzo $ual $dal - well take share and do less bad overproduced; will trash price $mcft $mbuu $algt $sncy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1690055636183064583)  2023-08-11T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@veneziacap @stockgutter Arent most people valuing it on [----] earnings power Committing to an exclusive supplier at tbd pricing seems like would impact prospective NPV On your numbers above I dont know how u get those ranges could be $1m private placement $100m cash gaurantee on $0.01 warrant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1690094244789161984)  2023-08-11T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Best still dislocated $HA interisland contribution/economics (via DOT/HTA/Backing-in) + $luv mkt entry $CJT_CN ACMI/Lease economics Wakeboats - dealer surveys 100% too high inventory + local-news production cuts Various EVs - no car/factory $BFLY- better/cheaper cmptrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1692017855846384069)  2023-08-17T03:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@pussyisalive @finphysnerd Have a lot of respect for Marcs track record. My limited interactions with him have been v +ve Tone/approach has always bombastic. Entertaining and helps going up against slimy frauds & gathering public support/eyeballs. Seeking a technical/buyside-oriented angle on his longs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1693862918448644249)  2023-08-22T05:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@pussyisalive @finphysnerd Table-pounding indignation is naturally palatable [--] trained ear on fraud shorts. If ur correct ur correct in a binary/discrete way & then proven/done/over. Sketchy mgmt fits Goliath role deserves the hat. Hairier wen u invert that tone/style long. Interested n his thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1693870390722900071)  2023-08-22T06:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ChairliftCap Charitably: these mgmt teams are too conditioned that rev/adj ebitda growth = good at any cost Pessimistically: Mgmt is in the business of selling stock warrant dilution is several comp cycles away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1701664329248936397)  2023-09-12T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChairliftCap I hear a lot no one cares about TRAs etc They dont care right now But it matters when it matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1701665829958328745)  2023-09-12T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@UpslopeCapital $DUOL $POOL $MCW $TFII_CN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1702341843801747822)  2023-09-14T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@puppyeh1 SAVE is probably a zero standalone DOT has said theyll block it if DOJ doesnt Political will is very against the deals and more levers to pull than people may appreciate Dont think the concessions to date move the needle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1704707453001007180)  2023-09-21T04:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@W98AB @sadvalueinvestr Airports operate long term contract w/ gov max usage fees airports can charge (tariff) are set 5yr period m w/ capex plan & volume forecast to solve for fixed a target LT NPV. They also get to charge freely for food & such Seems gov said F ur contract (NPV). Details scarce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1710052270853808391)  2023-10-05T22:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Still boats Prob EU air into winter (tbd) Air freight into peak (still CJT) DUOL/KURA but no catalyst Can we try RDFN/OPEN again Resi home-tech ALRM / RZDO Levered brick & mortar cons growth LT US non-legacy air ST torquey tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1710184796230459770)  2023-10-06T06:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@emo__girl_ @stockgutter @chamath @richardbranson 1) Greater fool argument - I agree EVTOLs can issue more equity before zero. Irrelevant re: the countless reasons weve discussed on other threads why IMO they never feasibly generate FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1710861057768440276)  2023-10-08T03:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@emo__girl_ @stockgutter @chamath @richardbranson 2) if the point is that UAL wouldnt make a bad equity investment see any Big [--] airlines VC / JV equity bets historically have mostly folded. Toyota well people made same argument re: NKLA/GM TSP/Navistar AUR/Conti and a growing graveyard of similar nonsense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1710864066850308521)  2023-10-08T03:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BearForce_Won Low float IPO - Retain elevated/artificial mark from pvt mkt - Use illiquid stake as collateral for securities-backed or NAV loans - JPM: Were 🥸 very prudent only 25% LTV world class biz great founder v low risk (hedges short the underlying Idk)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1712260526045028663)  2023-10-12T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BearForce_Won Am I wrong here How does this break And how does hedging of these equity-backed loans impact the borrow rate util and trading How do convert issuances on low float stocks impact borrow/util How does it break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1712261089117749663)  2023-10-12T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stockgutter @dalibali2 @InvestRoiss @DeepSailCapital Immigration tailwind is big Very concentrated in to/from English ofc In fact the second most popular language to learn in the US is English Babbel dominant in Europe User forecast (considering churn) implies DUOL wins globally APAC a bit more costly to dev Lower arpu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1716571559274426478)  2023-10-23T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital [--] IPOs have assigned an allocation to Robinhood only DUOL and COCO are green from inception. Really reliable short signpost. I dont think those [--] will ultimately be exceptions. Below only goes 1yr (phone limitation) #democratize_exit_liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1716578446279622802)  2023-10-23T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Rec boating: esp dealers $hzo $onew NAM airl: esp $algt $ual $ulcc $sncy Airfreight: esp $CJT_CN $atsg eu peers Decel nonsense: $duol $you Evtols: $joby $achr $lilm B&M growth: $krus $bowl $bros $mcw Discret home: $alrm $gnrc $smg $pool $rdfn Maybe() guns freight brokers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1717242311267037618)  2023-10-25T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 I agree I also think adding prob-weighted (and dif multiples) to cases like below keeps my honest here distribution matters. Esp if ur mandate allow options Also I think traditional SM underwritten timing We are solving for an IRR right Stock path matters imo All matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1717246840490352779)  2023-10-25T18:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bucketshopcap Decel before breakeven against a high mult but InVeStInG FoR GrOwtH $cjt_cn $krus $bowl $mcw $duol $bfly $bros $pool $wrby"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1720245278865830252)  2023-11-03T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Outdoor (esp boats): $hzo $onew $mbuu $mcft $hog $lcii $pii $doo.to $rgr $cwh $wgo $tho B&M growth concept: $krus $bowl $modg $bros $dnut $sg US Airlines: $algt $sncy $ulcc paired Airfreight: $CJT.TO $ATSG Nonsense: $shco $joby $achr $lilm $vuzi Proptech: $open $rdfn $smrt $rezi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1723113327939743968)  2023-11-10T23:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CorneliaLake The violence in common isnt the liquidation but usually the getting caught offside factor limits and running to the other side of boat right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1730622653994520995)  2023-12-01T16:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GrandTokamak The deal price and synergy projections are our insanity. Congrats to HA ALK why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731395580390256769)  2023-12-03T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GrandTokamak Why is one of their [--] slides touting [--] owned planes when half of them are 717s with 4yrs of life How does this get passed without ALK divesting their whole west coast to Hawaii biz (7% of rev)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731403560967971059)  2023-12-03T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GrandTokamak Wasnt the $ALK bull case (like last month) that years of underperf from rough integration of the bad Virgin acquisition would clear up because the last Virgin / Airbus plane was exiting and they were back to all Boeing single fleet type And then this weeks later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731404668117422161)  2023-12-03T20:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@David_Slotnick 🎶 I try to walk away and I stumble 🎶 $alk $ha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731416740096000386)  2023-12-03T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JustAPanda17 @AirlineFlyer $alk had a subregional niche in PacNW & Alaska w/ a good brand / loyalty biz / network & regional CPA Wall Street darling and nice margins at DALs mercy. Tried to expand in competitive mkts CA & Transcon weak perf- bad Virgin deal fully exit Virgin airbus-Buy HA Airbus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731421090256159043)  2023-12-03T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@paddyob2 @LionelHutz_Esq At O&D level concentration & overlap Hawaii-Mainland is more dramatic. Hawaiian folk - w/ the interisland history - dont hold purely-Wall-Street fantasy that country-level market share is all/most of what matters. History of monopoly-route gouging in HI & no alt mode travel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731430853404774899)  2023-12-03T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BATMongoose @BluthCapital Only [--] are unencumbered - so on most of the planes youre just replacing lower cost existing financial debt with much higher cost prevailing SLB implicit rates. Theyre mostly used A320/A321 CEOs. $84m is way too high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731453741667061903)  2023-12-03T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BluthCapital @BATMongoose Eh - the lease obligation is a liability (NPV of future rent) Corresponding right-of-use asset is an intangible If u buy an entity w/ leases o/s at below market rates: youre paying a premium for the ROU asset sorts - by assuming an inflated Op Lease liab. Theoretically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731467833362567395)  2023-12-04T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BluthCapital @BATMongoose Thats fair but if ultimate lease agreement btwn you & lessor is ending (deposit back; redelivery maintenance) typically its lessor who chooses next lessee & realizes u/(d) frm mkt demand. U cant just transfer his planes [--] Ghana Air [--] a lump sum & tell A/C owner to deal w/ it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731483860917993523)  2023-12-04T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Predictivepowe1 @BluthCapital @BATMongoose Im looking at $AER; I eagerly welcome any DM thoughts or pointers to those generous enough to provide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731497733679087726)  2023-12-04T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@scobatz @dominicgates @AlaskaAir @HawaiianAir $alk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1731519159152881952)  2023-12-04T03:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PlaneDame $HA / $ALK case has alot of firepower to show $HA fares skyrocket when competitor-count falls at the route level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1732069349966393579)  2023-12-05T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FocusedCompound Agree and perhaps even more pronounced on short side - excess supply + extrapolation of supernormal = even if demand is strong earnings will STILL miss Supply is easier to predict w/ higher certainty via primary work vs demand & street is inclined to model rosy demand in leiu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1732194527899971824)  2023-12-06T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@UpslopeCapital $MULN serial reverse splits that doesnt affect ceo stake $GME internal hedge fund; buying that mining co Sequoia / FTX diligence (and other similar) Otherwise reasonable people believing in mid-term flying robo taxi market Archegos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1737341046344851624)  2023-12-20T05:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@negworkingcap Why The riskfree (or multiple) assumption has to be SOMETHING right Seems fine for framing relative valuation I agree if TV/multiple sensitivity makes-or-breaks your thesis youre just macro betting Price of money is the anchor for price of everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1740526943865573553)  2023-12-29T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@negworkingcap I see your point but yeah - I think for almost any fund return-on-time on knowing how long/short you are the interest rate sensitivity factor is important risk management (even if more defensive vs offensive). The reality of market/mandates tday & unpredictability of fedspeak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1740532319864373621)  2023-12-29T00:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ReganCoda *closes out of IR teams Spotify listening history* Sigh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740630121399353623)  2023-12-29T07:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Chariot_Invest - movement of revisions & impact on the timing of alpha realization especially relative alpha. Shape of alpha - options [--] alpha capture [--] express fundamental views (not quant/arb nor all the retail nonsense) - IRR based research prioritization - beyond u/d: time-ability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741257294258598204)  2023-12-31T00:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Chariot_Invest - inside baseball re: working with journalists/regulators/activists for fraud shorts - inside baseball & mechanics re: SPAC hawkers & shitco mgmt effectively exiting early - forensic accounting in general and usage of Panama Papers / Paradise Papers for short research"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741259027290394809)  2023-12-31T00:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Chariot_Invest - practical application of factor-aware model in excel using Bloomberg not barra. Fundamental not quant perspective - examples of truly creative primary research or alt data use. I understand why these arent public. But I love hearing about em"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741260137665360103)  2023-12-31T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Rebrand_As_Y @akramsrazor I feel like a lot of friends at very good funds that got offsides was a function of this incentive mismatch. Heard alot about everyone just wanting bull mkt shorts defensive stuff that wont rip your face off and was liquid so it could be large and they could get back longs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741589987139690796)  2023-12-31T22:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@UpslopeCapital @bucketshopcap Net long concentrated private equity approach to public markets i assume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741900747900354682)  2024-01-01T19:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RiskRewardSkew @bucketshopcap From my experience most market neutral funds arent using etfs and baskets for the short book"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741904334437159149)  2024-01-01T19:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LongShotCap1 @RiskRewardSkew @bucketshopcap My understanding is Carlson for example does pairs like this but others more a matrix considers the aggregate net factor/sector exposures. Idea is to isolate the intra-sector company-specific (researchable/time-able) alpha. An SM cld do this but allow more sector/factor tilts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741919177806393344)  2024-01-01T20:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LongShotCap1 @RiskRewardSkew @bucketshopcap I think timing/sizing has always been more important on shorts but often neglected by funds trying to cut/paste the long process to shorts (concentration/duration/conviction) despite dif r/r profile. Ppl say only can make 100% short IRR can be higher w high turnover or resizing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741920371924770979)  2024-01-01T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@walt373 Youre describing the absolute worst entry point & excessive risk (being so large at entry you cant add post squeeze) OTOH if you shorted it after it went [---] and it went to [--] in 3mo that 400% annualized Cuts both ways Distribution of single US stock returns as a function of holding period. A nice explanation also why most factors work best on a 1-12 month time horizon. The holder you hold a single stock the higher the chance it becomes a loser eventually. https://t.co/znVrotwnSG Distribution of single US stock returns as a function of holding period. A nice explanation also why most"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1741951622089937262)  2024-01-01T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BATMongoose @Rebrand_As_Y Counterpoint - theyre US domiciled so they get bailouts Whens the last time a U.S. airline reduced its fleet size meaningfully w/o filing Backstop of A/C liquidation value also lends itself over-growing & more importantly cheap lease rates drives excess capacity always"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1742222421342503373)  2024-01-02T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rebrand_As_Y Almost every airline in history has gone bankrupt (ex bailouts). Theyre both bad capital intensive cyclical high fixed cost torquey discretionary junk. Airlines have a worse cost structure w/ unionized labor that claims all value & are more prone to oversupply in good times"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1742313670409859311)  2024-01-02T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rebrand_As_Y Air travel volumes will continue secular growth. Thats different than being a good business though the nature of airline biz in US means however good demand is supply will overshoot. Cruises dont look at [--] weeks of strong bookings & add 10% more sailings & more ships"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1742314172530966974)  2024-01-02T22:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rebrand_As_Y I agree the multiples on consensus numbers are out of whack. I dont (and I dont think buyside does) believe airlines earn anywhere close to bbg cons 24/25 eps. I am less familiar on income statement assumptions for cruises to be fair - are estimates blatantly silly there too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1742314683321995623)  2024-01-02T22:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@anammostarac @eladgil They all planned to be the next Google so yes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1743081637842219045)  2024-01-05T01:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@winsteadscap @OnodaCapital KRUS Probably SG / DNUT / BROS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1743311624188879149)  2024-01-05T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@winsteadscap @OnodaCapital $KRUS is particularly silly cause you can see the mature economics of conveyor belt sushi in mature parentco/competitors in Japan which have lackluster margins & mults. Presumably the box economics dont work as well for sushi further u get from the coast & metros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743312120169537589)  2024-01-05T16:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@zippytop71 @winsteadscap @OnodaCapital What makes Kura Sushi USA better run than [----] JT (Kura Sushi Japan) I would think Japan has more scale and less logistics challenges"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1743330525916315755)  2024-01-05T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pmul1234 @zippytop71 @winsteadscap @OnodaCapital I dont have firm evidence but seems intuitive that larger Japanese-American populations and shorter distance to the ocean impact sushi demand/quality/margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1743345385815306601)  2024-01-05T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pmul1234 @zippytop71 @winsteadscap @OnodaCapital Next time you drive by a Chipotle say in a suburban Arizona shopping center ask yourself should we put a convert belt sushi restaurant here Even in some large cities its a bit of a gimmick and not outstanding or cheap compared to other sushi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1743345874564972891)  2024-01-05T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RiskRewardSkew Correct me if Im wrong but the borrow cost (-ve rebate) is passed through from the short selling client to the client who owns the long shares to be lent; and isnt static"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1744548964509028507)  2024-01-09T02:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RiskRewardSkew Borrow rate is a function of how many people want to short vs available shares to be lent. HTB doesnt necessarily mean the stock has languished - could be very low float or convertholders hedging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1744550965309591576)  2024-01-09T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@trapso888 Could they have floated divestiture package that was non viable and writing was on the wall from there Im not well versed in legal process idk if that happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744730222019358835)  2024-01-09T14:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Boats/powersports: $mbuu $hzo $mcft $onew $doo_cn $pii $hog Brick-and-mortar growth concept: $krus $bowl $modg $bros Autonomous/eVTOL: $joby $arch $aur $lilm Other: $you $abr $mpw $cjt_cn Maybe(): shoe fads life-science reits BNPL auto components"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1745500349924839486)  2024-01-11T17:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@evtolstockman @DeepSailCapital $EH is a run of the mill China stock promotion purporting future autonomy $AUR is a run of mill SPAC robbery purporting future autonomous trucking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1745524225207681356)  2024-01-11T19:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Thoughtsfortom1 @DeepSailCapital No view wld love a [--] liner on it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745524630251593880)  2024-01-11T19:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@evtolstockman @DeepSailCapital @ehang Sorry if I was unclear / means and/or ACHR and JOBY are EVTOLS AUR is autonomous trucking I include both in the bucket EVTOL/Autonomous because it is my opinion neither autonomous trucking/cars nor evtols realistically have any sizeable commercial market in the next [--] yrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745528967480639922)  2024-01-11T19:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@S_curvecap @MRatable I find people that focus too much in IRR tend to focus too little on timing and probability weighted up/down vs just LT base case. Especially in short side - its not hard to find something thats 90% a zero in [--] yrs but those are the ones that kill u"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745566106503327793)  2024-01-11T21:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@VOL_Vulture Elaborate on why you think $ulcc is not going bankrupt Its not selling off on oil fears but on the big [--] driving up costs yo stifle ULCC peer growth which further drives up ULCC costs + softening fares + a large portion of their GTF fleet grounded which further hurts costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1745929468990902433)  2024-01-12T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Main_Ridge @S_curvecap @MRatable I like it for a portion of short book but those tend to also be similar factors high SI -ve momo leverage etc etc I also like 75% chance of -30% low upside risk highly time-able) i want to find subsector processes for that where lots of ops mix w/ fads/frauds; best IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1745941742447145332)  2024-01-12T22:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Main_Ridge @S_curvecap @MRatable Spent time w/ concentrated duration investigative short sellers & time at a pod shop. Ppl talk about what parts are different but Im more interested in parts that r shared: - variant view - applied w/in mandate - utilize institutional advantages (duration data whatever)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1745943168913133791)  2024-01-12T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@invertedfragil1 @Alpaca_Capital What will be interesting is the posture on next earnings call. LCC/ULCCs obfuscated the serious structural changes delivered by where legacies set wages - then admitted to them when it was useful for the trial - now do they try to walk it back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1747420841090892167)  2024-01-17T00:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stockgutter Sometimes guy on train is right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1747641245495677378)  2024-01-17T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EllliotttB Dang I was fishing for some reit shorts Gracias though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1747658718127259764)  2024-01-17T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@nottigeranalyst @senatorcheese @bucketshopcap My bread & butter: self-sourced hard-to-use not mktd to wall st 3p data. Then mgmt/experts to triangulate/validate conclusions - then go check yipit & hope its totally wrong & everyones offsides. Thats my ideal alt data use. Looking [--] unit econ/mix/competition not sss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1748022604621901840)  2024-01-18T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BATMongoose Airline analysts cant predict airlines lets not expect our judges to do it better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1748038073504419843)  2024-01-18T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@senatorcheese @BuffaloBillCo Its a horrible industry race-to-bottom take rates trying to buy growth with S&M punch-card-discounts just push out promotions lower paid vs organic mix vs peers lapping T-Swift tailwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1748068251819495916)  2024-01-18T19:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MrMojoRisinX What does vs heavy mean Thx for talking us thru your thinking Congrats - or Sorry - I cant tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1748110279412457687)  2024-01-18T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest @ChairliftCap @tk_financial - Any quantified measure is noisy & needs caveats / nuance - filings not great at describing reality - quality ROIC / IC + mgmt + reinv opps + durability/visibility etc define value of biz - PERCEIVED value of biz + flows drives stock px; perception part key for liquid mkt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752407000619598280)  2024-01-30T19:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest @ChairliftCap @tk_financial Basically - PE in public markets to mean we do deep / intensive diligence that aligns with our concentrated port & longer horizon fine But if u just mean were gonna deploy ur capital in liquid mkt as if it was an illiquid market pls ignore drawdowns/vol Id get a lockup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752407897907007780)  2024-01-30T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PD13158196 @lippert__ Dont forget $onew and $patk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752459664023806376)  2024-01-30T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest 99.9% of reusable edges are kept secret to elongate Indisputable examples of edge via creative primary research/analysis: - Hindenburg discovering NKLA was rolled down hill: edge - first guy to track oil tank shadows w/ satellite: edge - Philidor/VRX revelation: edge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752502898070585802)  2024-01-31T01:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest Be a podshop guy who gets accidentally included in a long-only mgmt field trip w/ only Fidelity & Columbia. Tell me mgmt access isnt alpha. Then put the company on ur restricted list"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752513543994253655)  2024-01-31T02:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@xEBITDA @atelicinvest IME the highest raw IQs Ive met are tucked away in Tableau Assembly Line pumping out visualization requests from [--] different PMs and grumbling that no one understands this is where the alpha comes from (its not)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752571985979171223)  2024-01-31T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@HedgeDirty I am skeptical on the quote tweet What exactly is the denominator in these ratios There are 100k total flights per day is the implication that a material number of these will be replaced by space rockets And that will drive a fuel efficiency difference to fuel demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1752771834745888903)  2024-01-31T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@junkbondanalyst At notoriously sweaty IB working for notoriously ruthless VP first deal I sent a diligence tracker to the wrong bidder (chad@fund1 vs chad@fund2). I dont misfire emails anymore. Bonus-delete was prob enough but [--] months of active internal/external shaming made it stick"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1753558854669947328)  2024-02-02T23:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@puppyeh1 March and beyond say How far beyond Why didnt they say For the remainder of the year for cash flow positive in FY24"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1755731802939879516)  2024-02-08T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@VagueM62565 @DeepSailCapital These scare me - while an infinite supply of new coins & shitcos to satisfy speculative demand there is a finite number of Trump stocks. Into an election the meme risk seems high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1765140565962768672)  2024-03-05T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@winsteadscap I like to see DTC centered on [--] wk post prints. Thats when well cover cause thesis proved wrong idc if illiquid in btwn (assuming not a stock w/ lots of irrational-quarter data/readthrus). Plenty of smid cap are more liquid when u need them to be Vice versa crowded big cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1771203783453810732)  2024-03-22T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Same as last time but dislike US LCCs air most after boats - ramping supply (ya I know GTF/BA still ramping quantify) - Fuel +ve/ fares -ve $algt - rasm miss in traf rpt $ulcc - ripped on silly guide & 80% holder exit () & needs labor deal $sncy - DAL fare ware $save"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1775159868371943773)  2024-04-02T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@irbezek @juanito_mexok Isnt rising ULCC vs legacy share bad for airports cause less in-airport-spending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1775717204694114645)  2024-04-04T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 Amen - I like to set a window +/- [--] and [--] days (so a 6-10 day window around earnings) and look at relative. Also too myopic but more info value around events than day-of % chg -15% vs peers into the print (on readthrus data etc) then +5% day-of I call that a bad earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1776274729264963758)  2024-04-05T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockJabber All-Airbus fleets like SAVE / ULCC mostly JBLU have their own issues with GTF that probably matter more than Boeing production slowdown over next couple of yrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1777048968498643362)  2024-04-07T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@senatorcheese @JigsawCap The next-chipotle effect is as pervasive as the next-Amazon effect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1778460578140311978)  2024-04-11T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Update on sadboi summer $mbuu $mcft $hzo $onew $bc $lcii $patk $dom_ss $MBUU Accounting fraud related to channel stuffingscheme where CFO and CEO resigned or something else April [----] a lawsuit seems to confirm channel stuffing scheme filed by MBUUs core distributor Tommy Boats https://t.co/P5iZMgmFIm $MBUU Accounting fraud related to channel stuffingscheme where CFO and CEO resigned or something else April [----] a lawsuit seems to confirm channel stuffing scheme filed by MBUUs core distributor Tommy Boats https://t.co/P5iZMgmFIm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1778913247589986381)  2024-04-12T22:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Prob legal but takeaways: - Largest dealership group gone 10% of [--] sales (est 1/3 of wake sgmnt profit driver) - $110m of too-premium inventory in default w/ floorplan - locations already shutting down (what abt service/warranty) - liquidations impact mkt outlier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1778917305067458900)  2024-04-12T22:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital The channel stuffing was knowable - common knowledge on public enthusiast forums talking to dealerships or going a lil deeper in data than all-category headline % unit comps. Wall Street convo & industry convos totally different. Imo when u see that ignore wall st"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1778918789037392190)  2024-04-12T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GeorgyKuku Forgot a key risk My favorite paragraphs of the $MBUU complaint https://t.co/ZDuA6Ais4y My favorite paragraphs of the $MBUU complaint https://t.co/ZDuA6Ais4y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1779442627332517902)  2024-04-14T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 @CapitalSpanc @JigsawCap AXS is growing in popularity - artists can do a pre-sale to say only people who are on the email list or go seek out an the artists page for an access code. They do a good job of limiting units-per-person to deter scalping and have a wait-in-line system for bot deference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1780238546512589136)  2024-04-16T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@realLigerCub Um what No surprises $mbuu guided next Q (FQ4): -40% rev miss -ve EBITDA margin vs cons 14% Took an impairment worth 13% of mkt on their latest acquisition (not even related to Tommys Said all brands very weak to continue into [--] w/ -ve EBITDA vs street 14% margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786094479390433762)  2024-05-02T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@realLigerCub @AnshPatel1001 Boating participation and fleet has been pretty flat since the 90s but its wakeboats tripling in price since prior unit peak that was ZIRP driven. Talk to any dealer and theyll tell you rates and credit availability were a huge tailwind now headwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786216732266319938)  2024-05-03T02:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub Rate cut would first help dealers (floorplan interest) is floating Over time it is incrementally positive to demand - lower monthly payments more loans approved wealth effect The issue for summer [--] (fiscal 25) is more supply driven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786220370057408765)  2024-05-03T02:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub OEMs produce steadily yr round for planning/efficiency Demand is seasonal 70% of boats sold in summer OEM pays interest exp on loan [--] dealer until summer [--] incentivize dealer [--] buy off-season [--] many in channel dealers pay interest now dont want more existing not selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786223673830969818)  2024-05-03T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub Look up channel inventory sell-in/sell-through stuffing the channel selling out of trust read the Tommy Lawsuit with grains of salt. These concepts will clarify. Talk to a dealer if u can and read the owners forums"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786224066703081885)  2024-05-03T02:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PD13158196 @realLigerCub Agree - that would be bad They DID repurchase [--] boats despite saying they werent liable for the loan Somebody gotta take the hot potato - kinds doubt its M&T"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1786227164880204219)  2024-05-03T02:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub @taobanker @Rebrand_As_Y The wakeboat segments very similar cobalt is better than mcft deals but mbuu does more aggressive add-backs & warranty accounting. MCFT dealer surveys slightly more negative. both subject to wakeboat market turmoil which will drive stocks but Tommys loss prob puts mcft ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1787267754820612592)  2024-05-05T23:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@taobanker MPX is too illiquidbut have managed production more responsibly and returned capital instead of going on M&A spree and stuffing channel. They are seeing spillover from dealers who full of wakeboats (No floorplan available even if they want more mpx). Wake/dealers better shorts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1787522549972123851)  2024-05-06T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@taobanker Oh I didnt see that My bad. Idk - its an illiquid family-owned biz. Mbuu/mcft insiders skim cash via the tax receivable agreement so idk. MPX not liquid enough to be actionable so Im not close to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1787526508434645504)  2024-05-06T16:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DonutShorts $SAVE a Waffle House in the clouds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1788620615043142106)  2024-05-09T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DonutShorts BBG: *BREAKING* WAFFLE HOUSE RUMORED TO BE EXPLORING RESCUE MERGER FOR SPIRIT AIRLINES; BILL ACKMAN FILES 13D WERE GONNA KICK JETBLUE/ICAHN ASS BRING FLYING/SYRUP SYNERGIES TO NEEDY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1788625117506900152)  2024-05-09T17:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Maverick_Invstr @evantindell Good one Not directly about shorting but: https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Psychology_of_Intelligence_Analysis.pdf https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Psychology_of_Intelligence_Analysis.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1788701952341135677)  2024-05-09T22:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Maverick_Invstr @evantindell Financial Shenanigans Art of Short Selling Lessons From Titans Capital Cycle Madness of Crowds Enjoyable but less Educational: Diary of a Very Bad Year Confidence Game Fooling Some the People Find them some VIC classics or good CORRESP Ban sell side research"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1788816598507081960)  2024-05-10T06:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Im not sure intent matters AML and compliance are pretty central to cross border lending core biz ops not like Uber ignoring taxi laws"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1790439731584459087)  2024-05-14T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Why dont their top countries by search interest look anything like the geographic split in their filings Or even reflect the currency pairs where volume is sufficient for their model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1790440299879150035)  2024-05-14T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Idk. Not sure tourism explains Estonia and Angola so far ahead of the rest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1790440761072189760)  2024-05-14T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BristleconeVal2 @AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub I dont really understand I dont expect large portions of the dealer network to fold but if they did there would be no orders or earnings next year and Im not sure who would lend unsecured on top of massive existing off balance sheet leverage from floorplan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1790932428275487021)  2024-05-16T02:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BristleconeVal2 @AnshPatel1001 @realLigerCub I dont think they go bankrupt but I think earnings are well below $2 for several years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1790933293694591174)  2024-05-16T02:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@RudyHavenstein We Own This City hits some Wire/Shield notes If you can bear subtitles (avoid dub): Gomorrah - realistic suburban Naples mafia O Mechanismo - based on Brazils Operation Car Wash corruption scandal Zero Zero Zero - Italy/MX/US trafficking miniseries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1793880244245631053)  2024-05-24T05:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@danielcincu @TheStalwart @owenslindsay1 @ddayen Alternate view - the cost of providing a ride to the low battery passenger is higher. If their phone dies: - harder to find them at the pickup spot. More gas & more empty time/miles - less likely to tip (phone is dead) / add Uber Eats - maybe statistically more likely drunk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1797841671251710198)  2024-06-04T04:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ParisAnalyst I only really care about NT beat/miss to the extent it drives incremental buyer/seller to change their mind and reverse NTM revisions -100% during Covid for many names just shifted to FY+2-3 If ppl valuing a name on FY+7 with silly growth/margin ests at exit can be sticky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1798392100092047536)  2024-06-05T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ParisAnalyst Pods care about relative multiple and can let absolute get out of hand its hedged Tiger folk buying things at 10x sales are prob underwriting 10x FY+5 ebitda or something so unless the story changes or it gets too high even on that method it stays there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1798392697893617722)  2024-06-05T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@emo__girl_ @AchrFactCheck @jobyaviation @ArcherAviation I dont really conceive a seasonality to it but theyll have to push out certification expectations some point rather be there for it. If they wait longer or it goes up retain capacity to press at the better IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1798684965464338492)  2024-06-06T11:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ParisAnalyst Dif exercise vs tracking crowding (is the houseparty crowded) Usually sell-side/buy-side are so focused on their framing (2-3 key debates my inputs betta) Sometimes 4th thing arrives. small fire in the corner. I like checking in on PT method shifts - r ppl sober enough to run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1798876960531120207)  2024-06-07T00:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital BOATS ARMAGEDDON: $mbuu $onew $mcft $hzo Expensive decels: $celh $you $cjt_cn $duol B&M growth: $krus $bowl $mcw $modg Outdoor / power-sport: $pii $doo_cn $mips_ss $lcii $patk $dom_ss US LCCs (still): $ulcc $algt $save $sncy Crowded donuts (smol): $aur $joby $achr $abr $mpw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1799102002187935902)  2024-06-07T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital $ulcc lol timely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1799108378104627304)  2024-06-07T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@nuancerocket Itd be interesting to see this split [--] ways: - trailing P/E - NTM P/E (on consensus fwd eps) - NTM P/E (on realized fwd eps)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1799632061965418660)  2024-06-09T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@HedgeVision TikTok kids think it has human waste in ur and they just renegotiated the Pepsi deal (60% of rev) to offer more incentives/promotions/margins to Pepsi Fact pattern isnt very exciting at this valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1800197600907497784)  2024-06-10T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@chasingmomo @ASchulz888 Biased to downside but think low cost carriers and aal do worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1803912571365319059)  2024-06-20T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FLinvestor_ I prostheletize for emo cruise hard Cut my wrists and black my eyyyyeees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1806824657577759231)  2024-06-28T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FLinvestor_ Emo cruise [--] Lyft 😢"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1806825564222738475)  2024-06-28T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ACapitalLP I would go to BRC GO filter for HAWK TUAH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1806831485728538818)  2024-06-28T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@vdmandele @jfineman Why wld $HZO sell 25% of EBITDA for 10-12x (leaving cyclical remainco at to trade around 6-8x) $ONEW offer is 12x fr wholeco HZO bot IGY in [----] for 580+67m earniut (100m rev / 40m ebitda) Ppl said undervalued all mults using Consensus FY25 which is way too high imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811078484724211876)  2024-07-10T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@vdmandele @jfineman My hypothesis $ONEW cash offer was silly nonsense theres no cash or leverage capacity to do it. The rationale of substantial untapped real estate value is also nonsense - as evidenced by this 2nd offer to sell casinos at a loss after 2yrs in order to avoid insolvency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811079233822773475)  2024-07-10T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Agree 100% Imo most useless thing analysts do on release is make side-by-side of kpi v ests Thatll be out in 15m frm SS Get [--] new prob-wtd u/d IRR fast thesis intact Anything moves nums/probs Capitalize on kneejerk algos+rosy headline+slow peers Work pre-print-act fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811082945853350015)  2024-07-10T16:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap $mbuu $mcft $bc $chgg $tsla $spot $dna $ups $okta $ppyl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811112911672066056)  2024-07-10T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Good list also $up $aur $hzo $onew $smr $run $qs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811791332639224003)  2024-07-12T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DannyOcean555 Ill take more info for more bloat/work When it matters it matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1811807891923640753)  2024-07-12T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@hfreflection As a side note cafe-pharma showed me how absolutely insane pharma reps are what a world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1814045568731369918)  2024-07-18T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@James56487175 @GrandTokamak Thanks Ive read IR materials consensus ests & mgmts itemizations of headwinds Theres also material temporary tailwinds frm peer groundings contract delays & and generous non-gaap adjustments DOT/schedule/fare/booking data basis of my view Agree SAVE/ULCC/SNCY much worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1814532023286911464)  2024-07-20T05:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@James56487175 @GrandTokamak Sell side always models rasm recovery beyond 1yr out - typically doesnt model labor step ups Fleet plans & P&W return challenge 25/26 Comp capacity not my fave short anymore thru prints but Ill def take the under on cons 25/26 ests Cld be wrong ofc thanks [--] discourse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1814534138453467468)  2024-07-20T05:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ACapitalLP Until cash flow inflects interrogate the underlying assumptions here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1815130584081158239)  2024-07-21T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@caan_al Awesome where can I buy or use one of the products or services his companies have made"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1815392128509378796)  2024-07-22T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@dalibali2 Ineos grenadier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1815441176750669964)  2024-07-22T17:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Still boats more than ever: $onew $mbuu $mcft $onew $bc US LCCs (still): $ulcc $jblu $algt $save euro peers Powersports/boat-rv suppliers: $patk $LCII $dom_ss $doo $pii Selective froth/squeezy junk: $aur $achr $joby $smr $up Other: $celh $you $krus $smrt $de $agco $cyrx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1818651180974665841)  2024-07-31T14:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Blue_Velvet_Cap @DeepSailCapital I dislike it - only had so many characters. Borrow dynamics tuff & not particularity opinionated on the print - wld love to hear any opinions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1818705622201725199)  2024-07-31T17:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@soy1027 @TheShark0912 @DeepSailCapital Generous retail assumptions embedded 1) how much promotion / extended flooring / rebates required to clear that inventory (during the off-season) 2) sell-in/sell-thru harmonizes - is [--] units midcycle GPU/ASP mix on new prod mix 3) dealers agree -10% units vs [--] healthy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1818809398820823179)  2024-08-01T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bubbleboy_08 @PD13158196 @ImpactPatrick Agree the shorter cycle part of their value chain already talking about deep prod cuts & decontenting / mixing to lower asp - PATK stock has been oddly resilient in the face of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1818953415650689295)  2024-08-01T10:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thenextleft1 @DannyOcean555 @typesslowly @DeepSailCapital Congrats - Nice fcf guide (A) That said not an unusual kneejerk headline reaction for clear. (B) Doubt it follows through. Retention & usage charts ugly imo (C) Mad abt 17.5m short float but not about $dal selling $100m share block to $you (taking that fcf)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1820852130002977144)  2024-08-06T15:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thenextleft1 @DannyOcean555 @typesslowly @DeepSailCapital Are you kidding They bought 4m shares from Delta for $100m in July Thats $25 share it was $20 open mkt in a July. Its STILL not at the price they cashed out DAL How is that buying buying low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1820858464786395507)  2024-08-06T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thenextleft1 @DannyOcean555 @typesslowly @DeepSailCapital Share what math $100m/4 = $25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1820860735095967990)  2024-08-06T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thenextleft1 @DannyOcean555 @typesslowly @DeepSailCapital Yep. An extra dose of embarrassing myself mid squeeze. Carry on and enjoyed discussing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1820871009508987137)  2024-08-06T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DannyOcean555 @typesslowly @DeepSailCapital Almost no one pays the actual list price Amex which is large portion is free to customer. Problem is its note faster in most airports these days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1820905493608468742)  2024-08-06T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BATMongoose They teased [----] commercialization and are changing the definition of commercialization just like $aur Its laughably unrealistic for any material commercial operation within a decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1821806408586625212)  2024-08-09T07:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital I hate when you like management but its still obviously a short and management knows it and theyre as honest as they can be but its still too expensive. Happens more in cyclicals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1827064138629316719)  2024-08-23T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@OlympiaYork_ @PD13158196 @mcboatcompany Yeah RVs brought back production too early and retail sales continued going down so they gotta cut again + towables vs motorized mix shift and general decontenting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1829190677709938973)  2024-08-29T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@valuationshorts @bubbleboy_08 @PD13158196 @ImpactPatrick 300k is below trough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1831331501788610888)  2024-09-04T14:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@valuationshorts @PD13158196 @bubbleboy_08 @ImpactPatrick Partially offsetting revenue growth in [----] was the mix shift in the RV industry towards a larger concentration of entry level & lower priced units in both the towables & motorized which negatively impacted content per unit growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1831690204832293071)  2024-09-05T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bucketshopcap I frame as unbundling: Like Southwest: - isolate core offering (alpha) - undercut price (fees$ / alpha$) Via: - scale: data/infra/access - lower labor costs: IPs cede mgmt-fee/beta$ [--] shortcut [--] capital or cuz monkey brain overweights bull case & big book = big p&l (ignore vol)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1834412238561521670)  2024-09-13T02:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@bucketshopcap When fundamental PMs tell me LLMs are meaningfully enhancing their analyst output/performance I get very skeptical of the quality of said analysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1838230051323564371)  2024-09-23T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jay_21_ Seen several cycles of this hope trade; Long-only/generalist money buys capacity constraint/discipline thesis (add a few pts of RASM-casmx to FY+1 airlines always look cheap). I think not dif this time wont materialize [--] nums way [--] high. Legacy vs LCC dynamic is dif tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1840082041842327623)  2024-09-28T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jay_21_ From a [----] ft view just looking at market shares - airlines feel like theyre an oligopoly that SHOULD be earning better ROIC thru-cycle if mgmt wld just be better stewards The micro level mkt structure looks a lot dif and IMO mechanically wont enable good ROIC/discipline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1840082997334192565)  2024-09-28T17:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ASchulz888 @jay_21_ $ual has the best mgmt for sure and legacy vs lcc situation is advantaged history. But still the tallest-midget situation. Ulccs def shorts. Prob all shorts in most macro outcomes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1840204005462471000)  2024-09-29T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ASchulz888 @jay_21_ Theyve improved product & also the network more than peers for sure and reached DAL quality service. The app is great. But earnings ests too high. The strategy to stomp out LCCs is wise and correct. But its not gonna produce consensus eps under anything just perfect conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1840218147359457641)  2024-09-29T02:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WaterworldCapi1 Bahamas $5 table Getting along with Ladder-Man I think you actually met John McAffee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1841253770761531854)  2024-10-01T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@themagicbakery $JOBY $ACHR $AUR $VUZI $MULN many more Destructive grifts. Typical roadshow: 1: mgmt enthusiastically reads pitchdeck verbatim 2: Q&A; mgmt realizes U know THEY know U know its conscious lies FILIBUSTER 3: CEO on superyacht posting #foundertips 4: Redditors squeeze"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1841377987473572073)  2024-10-02T07:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@emo__girl_ @DeepSailCapital Why are the selling forward equity stakes at $5.03 If certification is close and commercial launch next year wont there be opportunities for a less dilutive raise Or is that maybe gonna get pushed out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1841514291830071642)  2024-10-02T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@KevinLMak @pmul1234 Well if credible path to something resembling a commercial product is too much to ask how exactly are you determining when its undervalued Well see - if it turns out theres no meaningful commercial opportunity here then they didnt IPO too early - they IPOd just right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1841515421658447918)  2024-10-02T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EricTheUmpire Which other dilutive issuance pumped by press release & credible partner does it remind you of I cant remember an example that led to an actual product ACHR/Stellantis+United LILM/Tencent TSP/UPS+Navistar GOEV/USPS AUR/Uber"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1841521397891322284)  2024-10-02T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GrandTokamak @terminalG0 To be fair airline MARGINS are cyclical volume is arguably secular & in a downturn youre retiring old planes and shifting to higher leased vs owned. Leasing more new planes faster than peers = cash inflow & expands casmx advantage. To the airlines own detriment they must grow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1843862788789416434)  2024-10-09T03:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kpottermn Carriers just pulling down off-peak capacity due to GTF groundings network reconfigs & most importantly to sell a short-lived discipline/rasm story to investors and then rug pull as capacity returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844030399892357388)  2024-10-09T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ASchulz888 @kpottermn Agree - strange to see ULCC ripping so hard given the casmx offset her should be rough and FY25 numbers seem very aggressive. Seem to be in the market with aggressive flash sales in competitor hubs now too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844035391814586679)  2024-10-09T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ASchulz888 @kpottermn Can you really cancel much holiday capacity from here Its booking up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844039186338443658)  2024-10-09T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ASchulz888 @kpottermn I agree $ual best on a relative basis absolute as well if demand holds up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844045484090098053)  2024-10-09T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LongShotCap1 @MadsenSouth Not many sector neutral SM. Low net low vol w/o scale and high leverage doesnt really jive. Fees on beta aside SM mandate / approach = directional sector tilts (and even style tilts) are still security selection alpha. Not necessarily systematic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844810120628514909)  2024-10-11T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Beutty @MadsenSouth Agree if its VANILLA PNL based incentive is to: - oversize mediocre/torquey longs - disguise market bets as variant - avoid shorts (smaller pos high turnover) - bull market shorts Same conflicts the structure creates at GP-LP level as many trad SMs demonstrated last few yrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1844831160267874401)  2024-10-11T20:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stockgutter @DeepSailCapital Last I looked was too illiquid and high util been a while. Worth a revisit $up is semi-related and pretty puzzling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1852093204935344180)  2024-10-31T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@sitg27 @DeepSailCapital Feel like late innings. Everyone repeatedly capitalizing every 10bp sched cut for a few billion mkt cap Ive never seen BBG Airline Room as active and gleefully anti-numeric. No idea how many times theyll bid the same catalyst DAL pumpy inv day then [--] casm guides ruin party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1852350135344284122)  2024-11-01T14:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@IndustTourist @DeepSailCapital Stale work not convicted evaluating policy outlook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1864227423039971620)  2024-12-04T08:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DannyOcean555 Nah still much more channel to clear at lower prices than ppl expect in the yeehaws. Numbers trough deeper and for longer than people expect (not sure about txt)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1869427140510527847)  2024-12-18T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@globalm1cro @rev_cap More eloquent articulation of the same idea here yep"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1872083560016085194)  2024-12-26T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@rev_cap @sidprabhu @161phi @NickTimiraos @macrocredit I think asset price inflation key. Policy driven bubbles misallocate capital LT ofc Also ST erode meritocratic mechanisms Meritocracy = core [--] US productivity/cohesion Peers making $10m+ via: YOLO FartCoin / vaporware startups / Congress trading / Onlyfans etc. creates malaise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1873152411852054530)  2024-12-28T23:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap @sidprabhu @161phi @NickTimiraos @macrocredit Which I guess ultimately just comes back: inflation & deficits are just backdoor centralization of power and govt resource distribution is having the same effects it always does nominal headline gdp aside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1873153401409900705)  2024-12-28T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ClaytonCapital @CorneliaLake Pretty sure the mothership liquidates them via offsetting positions internally before informing the team theyre gone just a hunch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CrosscheckC/status/1877170355623596104)  2025-01-09T01:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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