#  @CompoundingLab Compounding Lab Compounding Lab posts on X about longterm, strong, company, the most the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::4704224978/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +1.10% - [--] Month [------] +16% - [--] Months [-------] +11% - [--] Year [-------] +26,722% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::4704224978/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -9.50% - [--] Month [---] +25% - [--] Months [---] -16% - [--] Year [-----] +3,654% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::4704224978/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.60% - [--] Month [-----] +6% - [--] Months [-----] +81% - [--] Year [-----] +21,800% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::4704224978/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 56.3% [finance](/list/finance) 36.97% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 11.76% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.36% [currencies](/list/currencies) 3.36% [countries](/list/countries) 2.52% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) 1.68% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.68% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 0.84% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 0.84% **Social topic influence** [longterm](/topic/longterm) #602, [strong](/topic/strong) 6.72%, [company](/topic/company) 4.2%, [the most](/topic/the-most) 4.2%, [growth](/topic/growth) 4.2%, [model](/topic/model) 4.2%, [business](/topic/business) 4.2%, [investment](/topic/investment) 3.36%, [$spy](/topic/$spy) 2.52%, [market cap](/topic/market-cap) 2.52% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@ichlerne2](/creator/undefined) [@leevalueroach](/creator/undefined) [@pepemoonboy](/creator/undefined) [@sharkchart](/creator/undefined) [@dirtcheapbanks](/creator/undefined) [@chartslion](/creator/undefined) [@thelonginvest](/creator/undefined) [@investseekers](/creator/undefined) [@gvdinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@simonepaglia75](/creator/undefined) [@tihobrkan](/creator/undefined) [@gnufs](/creator/undefined) [@nataninvesting](/creator/undefined) [@moneycruncher](/creator/undefined) [@stonkmetal](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@oguzerkan](/creator/undefined) [@simonhoiberg](/creator/undefined) [@discountedtr](/creator/undefined) [@barkmeta](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [PG&E, Corp. (PCG)](/topic/$pcg) [Edison International (EIX)](/topic/$eix) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Progressive Corp (PGR)](/topic/$pgr) [Hubbell, Inc. (HUBB)](/topic/$hubb) [Ferrari N.V. (RACE)](/topic/$race) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)](/topic/$payx) [Paylocity Holding, Corp. (PCTY)](/topic/$pcty) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/fair-isaac-corp) [Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)](/topic/$wab) [EQT, Corp. (EQT)](/topic/$eqt) [Range Resources, Corp. (RRC)](/topic/$rrc) [LPL Financial Holdings, Inc. (LPLA)](/topic/$lpla) [Iqvia Holdings Inc (IQV)](/topic/$iqv) [Icon Plc (ICLR)](/topic/$iclr) [Paycom Software Inc (PAYC)](/topic/paycom-software-inc) [GoDaddy, Inc. (GDDY)](/topic/$gddy) [Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)](/topic/$algn) [Rollins, Inc. (ROL)](/topic/$rol) [General Mills, Inc. (GIS)](/topic/$gis) [Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)](/topic/$cmg) [Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)](/topic/$dri) [Ubiquiti, Inc. (UI)](/topic/$ui) [Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)](/topic/$tyl) [SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC)](/topic/$sbac) [Minted (MTD)](/topic/$mtd) [PPL Corp (PPL)](/topic/$ppl) [Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)](/topic/$cboe) [Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)](/topic/$ato) [Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)](/topic/$cpay) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Today Passive ETFs manage c. 14% of the total US market cap. Still a long way to go. Likely destination range 5060% of equity fund assets. It means that ETFs like $SPY $VOO $VGT will keep outperforming stock pickers" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022673876338216962) 2026-02-14T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TihoBrkan All correct but applying that judgement consistently require a lot of luck time skills etc. Average investor will be better off with index fund" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2023004601096749447) 2026-02-15T12:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheLongInvest Do you have proof of this I don't trust this chart" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921964465265791294) 2025-05-12T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Payroll Showdown: $PAYX vs $PCTY" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1952799838170493159) 2025-08-05T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Realty Income $O - The Gold Standard in Dividend Real Estate" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953158125722431714) 2025-08-06T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Can $FICO Rebound A Wide-Moat Compounder Trading Below Fair Value. This company is a real beast. Only a handful of companies can improve ROIC from 13% to almost 50% in just [--] years. Shareholders love it. As a result beating index on all timeframes except for the most recent year. Lets examine what is happening here. Fair Isaac Corp has experienced a mixed track record relative to the S&P [---] across different time horizons. Over the past [--] months FICO shares have declined 22.5% underperforming the S&P 500s 20% gain. However looking longer-term FICO has significantly outpaced the index. Over" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1958166866163114024) 2025-08-20T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$WAB: Why This Industrial Compounder Keeps Chugging Ahead Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies is one of those industrial names that rarely makes headlines but quietly powers critical infrastructure across global freight and transit markets. The company sits at the intersection of transportation automation and decarbonization making its fundamentals worth a closer look. With a balance of recurring aftermarket revenues and exposure to long-cycle equipment cycles Wabtec has carved out a durable position in the rail ecosystem. That durability is underpinned by consistent returns on capital and an" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1977818053376168370) 2025-10-13T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@gnufs Even with 5-6% growth factored still undervalued" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1981247023773839752) 2025-10-23T06:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Battle for the basin β $EQT vs $RRC the gas titan face-off" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1984698530653487231) 2025-11-01T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Everyone talks about Goldman. Nobody talks about $LPLA. Heres why they should" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1986523256631779539) 2025-11-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "β $PCG vs $EIX: Californias utility heavyweights go head-to-head" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1986528565072912673) 2025-11-06T20:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IQV vs $ICLR: Data Giant vs Execution Machine Place Your Bets" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1990008248670249030) 2025-11-16T10:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I was considering preparing DCF for $TEP.PA but after conducting research on the current situation of the company and industry trends I came to the conclusion that Onepager will be enough. Teleperformance peaked around [---] in early January [----] and trades near [--] today 85% decline from that peak. There are several key reasons why $TEP.PA shares have fallen sharply: many are structural tied to market fears and some to more company-specific issues. Heres a breakdown: 1) AI Disruption Fears The big one: investors worry that artificial intelligence will replace large parts of Teleperformances" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1990122883008623002) 2025-11-16T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NVR is widely viewed as best-in-class homebuilder because of its combination of unique structural advantages disciplined operations and exceptional long-term performance" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1993424747246309461) 2025-11-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PAYC Just [--] years ago Paycom Software Inc had an earnings yield of 2-3%. Even with very decent median Return on Capital of 31% and Revenue growth @ 29% something clearly did not align with the shareholders' expectations back then resulting in negative stock performance on 5Y 3Y and 1Y timeframes. Only on 10Y timeframe still shows decent 14.57%. ROIC was heading lower for the last 5Y and the same for growth with the lowest rate in [----] and [----] (just 11%). That is not what shareholders initially expected. Currently the earnings yield provides 5% which indicates that shares are slightly" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1993760777891959190) 2025-11-26T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GDDY: Strong Setup or Still Sleeping See the Data" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1994136901763387744) 2025-11-27T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Is $ALGN Quietly Realigning for a Comeback" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1995598380815581395) 2025-12-01T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ROL Bugs Billions & Big Moat: The Pest Control Giant Quietly Eating Market Share" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1996275328784711734) 2025-12-03T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GIS Here is why you should not base your decisions solely on a multiple that is lowest in a decade. In 95% of cases there will be a reason why company is trading where it is. Let's break it down using General Mills "defensive" play as an example. At first glance revenue is flat and FCF is only slightly up. So we can say it's a stable entity that is growing in line with inflation. However when you look at acquisitions over the last [--] years there is 10B USD spent as per cash flow statement. You literally need to deduct those cash flows when calculating FCF because those are not "growth"" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1999528575003656200) 2025-12-12T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fast Lunch or Sit-Down Dinner $CMG vs $DRI" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2002088368482759132) 2025-12-19T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UI 71% YTD. Incredible ROIC. Founder-Led. Cash-Rich. Under the Radar" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2002411946625442267) 2025-12-20T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TYL: The Silent Software Powering Government Cash Flows. Tyler Technologies was underperforming the index across all timeframes to such an extent that it now seems meaningfully undervalued. Revenue segmentation reflects Tylers continuing shift toward cloud-centric recurring revenue (SaaS + transaction fees) as its dominant source of growth. EPS however is not growing in line with Revenue which is why ROIC is declining. It can still be a decent buy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002750194266276271 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002750194266276271" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2002750194266276271) 2025-12-21T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Every Signal Needs a Tower $SBAC Owns Them" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2002820795874390204) 2025-12-21T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MTD is what everyone wants to own: Elite ROIC Durable margins Strong compounding The problem Youre paying for perfection. Would you buy at $1412" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2003566746918355184) 2025-12-23T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not All Power Stocks Are Created Equal Meet $PPL" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2003936206598570068) 2025-12-24T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CBOE Dominant high-moat position in options and volatility trading combined with structurally high margins and recurring fee revenue. Revenue spike in [----] due to the acquisition of Bats Global Markets. Subsequent ROIC dropped to low double-digits due to increased capital. Largest 10Y drawdown -44%. Stock price outperforming S&P recently. Mauboussin cheatsheet should be P/E [--] vs [--] actual. Shares overvalued. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012825051834339494 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012825051834339494" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2012825051834339494) 2026-01-18T09:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ATO Atmos owns irreplaceable gas infrastructure in territories where it faces no real competition and regulators allow it to earn a steady (6% on average) return on that investment. The majority of natural gas is supplied to residential buildings. Earnings are increasing steadily at 6% annually which is an excellent rate for a regulated utility. This growth aligns closely with revenue growth although revenue tends to fluctuate significantly from year to year (which is normal and expected for this industry). 28% operating margin is also considered very strong for a regulated utility. Stock" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2014770832204018100) 2026-01-23T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As promised Im releasing my $PGR valuation model (DDM with a terminal multiple cross-check). I spent half a day building the model and stress-testing assumptions. Result: Progressive appears undervalued by 25%. If the stock converges to fair value over the next [--] years this implies 10% annual alpha. Key assumptions: [--]. Long-term EPS growth: 4% [--]. ROE remains structurally high at 32% [--]. Cost of Equity: 6.5% (Patreon followers have full visibility of calculation) [--]. P/E exit multiple: [----] Key points: πΉ Progressive has the highest 10Y average ROA among listed P&C insurers (5.68%). πΉ #2 U.S." [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015486377178066986) 2026-01-25T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CPAY: a high-margin payments machine. Big Business Scale: Corpay generated about $4 billion in revenue in [----] and serves 800000+ business clients globally - not small change. Profit Power: Adjusted net income was roughly $1.4 billion in [----] showing strong profitability in a payments-led model. Global Reach: The company helps businesses pay everything from fuel & EV charging to lodging and payables across multiple continents. S&P [---] Member: Corpay is part of the S&P [---] index signaling size and stability among U.S. public companies. Rebrand Spotlight: Formerly part of Fleetcor the company" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015547760632811913) 2026-01-25T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CNP vs $ES: Texas Powerhouse or New England Fortress" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015868743050485914) 2026-01-26T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$EXPE A strong recovery across all metrics is clearly visible since Covid-19 when Expedia Group was hit extremely hard as global travel essentially stopped. For the full year [----] total revenue collapsed by around 57% compared to [----] as travel restrictions and lockdowns decimated bookings. The market reacted by dropping the stock value by 71%. Subsequent recovery was expected - macro trends vaccine rollouts and early booking data pointed toward a rebound in travel demand that benefited Expedia as the world reopened. Recently revenue growth was just 5% YTD below the 10Y CAGR of 13%." [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016975798192775340) 2026-01-29T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Everyone agrees $HUBB is a great business. Wide moat. High ROIC. Grid spending tailwinds. Thats exactly why Im not buying it. Hubbell sells mission-critical components utilities cant easily replace. Switching costs are real. Pricing power is real. This part of the story already worked. The market noticed. Returns on capital improved. Margins expanded. The stock crushed the S&P. None of this is a secret anymore. Heres where it gets uncomfortable: Revenue growth is basically flat right now. Yet the stock trades like growth is guaranteed. The bull case assumes: grid spending keeps accelerating" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017547902713794862) 2026-01-31T10:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Luxury product luxury investment. After a 35% drawdown it may still be too early for $RACE to leave the pit lane. I ran a DCF to see whether the selloff is justified. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit growth @ 4-5% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. I am factoring EBITDA margin expansion for Ferrari from 40% today to 52% in [--] years. [--]. WACC @ 7.6%. The implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 19% [--]. The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales/Capital ratio adjusted for artificially inflated assets that dont scale" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018068560099352908) 2026-02-01T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@nataninvesting Dude I think you should start questioning your conviction. When I look at western union it's also 20% yield. [--] years in a row" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018811655724159234) 2026-02-03T22:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@money_cruncher This should not be shocking at all. And you don't need to wait for Vanguard to tell you this. I am projecting actual returns will be somewhere between -5% to + 5%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020230152534503450) 2026-02-07T20:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I just published the updated $NVO intrinsic value calculation. Also available on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/posts/nvo-dcf-model-150234985 https://t.co/moPq9xlpcd https://www.patreon.com/posts/nvo-dcf-model-150234985 https://t.co/moPq9xlpcd" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020472684853760258) 2026-02-08T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@investseekers I hold both Pandora and Novo. Not gonna sell with losses" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020502395000910167) 2026-02-08T14:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@IchLerne2 That's why I am holding" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020547337228107782) 2026-02-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$PHM Average 10Y ROIC 14% None Moat Average fcfe [--] years/price per share 5% Standard 10Y deviation of FCF per share 80% ROIC 10Y coefficient of variation 39% Market Price $135 Fair value $116 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 17%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020555633108333002) 2026-02-08T17:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The LEI continued to decline in October and November [----]. This indicator will eventually work out as expected. Not to scare anyone but to prepare for the imminent market crash. If you have been following me long enough and reading my monthly letters you are already ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020592509681053745) 2026-02-08T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@stonkmetal Isn't it current market price at the moment [----] There is no way you can get more they are buying from the market. You have no choice other than to sell it's open market" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020789939294654684) 2026-02-09T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LH 10Y ROIC Average 9% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 32% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share 7% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 44% Narrow Moat Market Price $277 Fair value $273 Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 2%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020964126101733571) 2026-02-09T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@leevalueroach Fine but [--] % of people will underperform index no matter how much time they spend" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2021290418424447172) 2026-02-10T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@leevalueroach Read Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand if you are interested in this" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2021484362638950877) 2026-02-11T07:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ULTA 10Y ROIC Average 27% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 29% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share 4% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 56% Narrow Moat Market Price $679 Fair value $462 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 47%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2021693052729921846) 2026-02-11T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ragingbullcap @leevalueroach Exactly. The very difference between value and growth investing is just a hoax. In reality there is a reason why companies trade at low multiples and you are praying for Terminal value to remain there" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022946778006671583) 2026-02-15T08:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AMZN trading at [--] P/E is justified" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022645257238941855) 2026-02-14T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Is $EFX the Next Moodys Quick Dive Into the Forgotten Data Moat 1/ Introduction Equifax Inc. sits at the intersection of data credit and trust a business built on information but valued on execution. While its often viewed through the same lens as peers like Experian or TransUnion Equifax has quietly evolved into a diversified human capital and analytics engine. That evolution has redefined its fundamentals: recurring revenue now makes up over half its top line and its data assets stretch far beyond credit files into employment income and identity verification. Yet the stocks muted" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1985065943463264417) 2025-11-02T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Water stock ran dry The $AWK story you mightve missed" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1992527234473820290) 2025-11-23T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$RH vs $WSM Williams Sonoma is a perfect example of how ROIC drives stock returns" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022634825937539514) 2026-02-14T11:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Follow the flow: how $XYL makes every drop count ππ§" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1985808187912831207) 2025-11-04T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TROW is trading like a broken asset manager - but the math says its being priced like a melting ice cube while still earning elite returns and carrying zero debt. Either the business is quietly deteriorating or the market is badly misreading it. I ran the numbers - they dont match the narrative. Introduction T. Rowe Price looks like a value trap at first glance. Years of stock underperformance versus the S&P [---] and persistent outflows from active funds have pushed sentiment into the basement. But underneath the weak chart sits a business with double-digit returns on capital fortress balance" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020446559167520800) 2026-02-08T10:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@oguzerkan What do you have to support your claims Price/sales is not enough. You should know by now that ROIC is equally important as growth" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2021980476731490421) 2026-02-12T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LII 10Y ROIC Average 32% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 10% FCFE 3Y Average per share $17 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 49% Narrow Moat Market Price $567 Fair value $560 Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 1% The ROIC stability is impressive here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626023410438163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626023410438163" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022626023410438163) 2026-02-14T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DLTR 10Y ROIC Average 10% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 17% FCFE 3Y Average per share $7 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 45% None Moat Market Price $126 Fair value $116 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 9% Price recovered recently but this is not the stock I will bet on. When ROIC = WACC it's not good. Not surprised at all to see $DLTR underperform S&P. Investors don't appreciate falling ROIC. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022638351199752318 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022638351199752318" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022638351199752318) 2026-02-14T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I do believe Adobe is currently undervalued but I am not planning to buy more since it already makes up 3% of my portfolio. I rarely go to 5% and only with high-conviction low-volatility stocks. It will be interesting to observe whether EMH will succeed this time or not. Finally my $ADBE model was updated with the figures from the most recent quarter. Discount to intrinsic value: 12%. Changes made: - Updated tax rate. Credit to one of my followers who spotted this error. - Unlevered free cash flow formula updated as it was adding back https://t.co/AjcEcFfdnc Finally my $ADBE model was updated" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022665936600248575) 2026-02-14T13:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PRX.AS As of the most recent filings Prosus N.V. holds about a [--] % stake in Tencent Holdings Limited - making it one of Tencents largest shareholders. Prosus trades at a discount to just its Tencent stake alone - meaning the market is assigning negative or near-zero value to the rest of Prosuss portfolio (food delivery classifieds fintech edtech etc.). This disconnect is exactly why Prosus is often seen as: * A discounted Tencent proxy * A NAV arbitrage opportunity * A buyback-driven value story Management has been trying to close the gap via aggressive buybacks funded by partial Tencent" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2023079354901598506) 2026-02-15T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Selling full holding of $BWA today - price close to my fair value. Also trimming $GOOG and $SBH a bit. The projected stress value in case of 50% market collapse is now 31%. How are you hedging" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1966232358836908212) 2025-09-11T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CQP: The LNG Cash Machine Powering Americas Energy Exports" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1998478889820237847) 2025-12-09T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CDW: the infrastructure backbone Wall Street ignores π $CDW isnt a tech company - its the toll booth. Every IT upgrade cloud migration or security refresh flows through distributors like CDW. π Approx. 90% of revenue comes from repeat customers. IT budgets renew. Hardware breaks. Software licenses expire. CDW lives off replacement cycles. π More than half of Fortune [---] companies buy from CDW. Its embedded deep in enterprise IT procurement - switching costs are quietly high. π Margins look boring - returns arent. Low margins high volume fast inventory turns = strong ROIC. π CDW sells" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015130709472481497) 2026-01-24T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Buy homebuilders below book. Sounds smart. Until you compare $LGIH at [---] P/B with $NVR at [--]. Book value isnt the asset. Business quality is" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017580922741182606) 2026-01-31T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NTAP 10Y ROIC Average 21% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation33% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share6% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation29% NarrowMoat Market Price$103 Fair value$130 SharesUNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+)-20%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2020971256494031085) 2026-02-09T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PNDORA DCF valuation model. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 10Y growth @ 4-5%. For [----] I am incorporating 1% based on Pandoras target for organic revenue growth of -1% to 2%. [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. Drop by [---] bps in EBITDA margin for [----] but gradual recovery to normal 30-31% range. [--]. WACC @ 8.6%. Implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 24% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = [---] Conclusion: Valuation suggests that the PNDORA is trading at 48% discount to fair value." [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2021332064608391573) 2026-02-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SimonHoiberg There is no capital gain tax in Malta not even realised gains. You think it will change" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2022960068602515633) 2026-02-15T09:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PDD DCF valuation model Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 10Y growth @ 6-9% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. 22% EBITDA Margin gradually improving as sales and marketing costs go down as a % of revenue. [--]. WACC @ 9.8%. [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 22% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = [--] Conclusion: Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 47% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate 24% in annual alpha. Therefore I will make a small entry tomorrow (2% of the portfolio)." [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2023029421565792628) 2026-02-15T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PRX.AS As of the most recent filings Prosus N.V. holds about a [--] % stake in Tencent Holdings Limited - making it one of Tencents largest shareholders. Prosus trades at a discount to just its Tencent stake alone - meaning the market is assigning negative or near-zero value to the rest of Prosuss portfolio (food delivery classifieds fintech edtech etc.). This disconnect is exactly why Prosus is often seen as: * A discounted Tencent proxy * A NAV arbitrage opportunity * A buyback-driven value story Management has been trying to close the gap via aggressive buybacks funded by partial Tencent" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2023082771464294436) 2026-02-15T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get a cup of coffee. In this post I'll walk you through $AMZN fundamentals. What do you think is the biggest mistake in valuing Amazon Treating it like a retailer. AMZN is no longer just a retailer - it is one of the most structurally complex profit engines in global equities. What looks like a low-margin online store on the surface is underneath a layered ecosystem spanning commerce cloud infrastructure logistics advertising and subscription economics. With over $600B in annual revenue dominant share in U.S. e-commerce and a global cloud platform that underpins much of the internet Amazon" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2023139900758073355) 2026-02-15T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SPMO quite surprisingly had only 31% max 10Y drawdown lower than $USMV or $SPLV. SPMO is a momentum ETF and is expected to be riskier than low-volatility ETFs. However the reality shows a different story which I find quite weird π§. Add to this 10Y returns: $SPMO - 17.93% $SPY - 14.53% And you will get a superior Sharpe ratio meaning you can get much better risk-adjusted returns than the S&P500. Crazy market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008259092817514668 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008259092817514668" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2008259092817514668) 2026-01-05T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HPQ: Old Brand Still Printing Cash HP sells a PC every few seconds yet PCs are not where most of the profit is made. Printer ink has margins comparable to luxury goods - and its a recurring revenue engine. 70% of HP revenue comes from Personal Systems but Printing drives a disproportionate share of operating profit. HP operates one of the largest installed printer bases globally locking in years of consumables demand. Commercial customers dominate HPs revenue making cash flows more stable than consumer-only PC brands. HP generates strong free cash flow even in weak PC cycles supporting" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2009005830495195209) 2026-01-07T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PGR in it's largest long-term drawdown starts looking attractive. Opening small position today" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2013181891738841178) 2026-01-19T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Before we decide whether we need this stock $NOW lets examine its DCF valuation model. My base-case scenario suggests the stock is trading at fair value. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 5Y growth @ 20% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 3.6% [--]. Improvement in EBITDA margin by 10% until [----]. [--]. WACC @ 9%. [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 15% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales to Capital ratio = [---] Sensitivity and bull/bear case available on my Patreon (link in bio). Conclusion: Fairly priced but since it's a wonderful company it may still" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015106594296438935) 2026-01-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "RT @CompoundingLab: β $PCG vs $EIX: Californias utility heavyweights go head-to-head" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015116279342940523) 2026-01-24T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Introducing new valuation workings for financial institutions - Dividend Discount Model. Until now I was focusing on traditional sectors. This will change soon as I will begin coverage of banks/insurers utilising the DDM model. The model is more straightforward than DCF but it will still be useful in informing our investment decisions. N.B. This picture is not my work just an example" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015163113247838239) 2026-01-24T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "RT @CompoundingLab: $CSGP Can someone explain to me how it is possible Market cap - $30B. Never generated more than $400 mln in free c" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015405753528373667) 2026-01-25T12:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "RT @CompoundingLab: $UNH - DCF valuation model. Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 27% discount to fair value. If adjusted to" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2015738944860610790) 2026-01-26T10:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "RT @DiscountedTr: rides daddy's coattails born a rich kid of a Congressman and stockbroker stacks Berkshire board with son and his o" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016046002935865401) 2026-01-27T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed. Checked it today out of curiosity. Turns out its doing +81% annualised vs 27% for the S&P. Stock picking isnt dead. It was just left unattended. Updated YTD performance for my hypothetical "Best Growth+ROIC" portfolio. This portfolio is performing well with a 9% alpha over the S&P [---] in the three months since its inception. $SPY $VGT $VOO https://t.co/zlKY1RrglC Updated YTD performance for my hypothetical "Best Growth+ROIC" portfolio. This portfolio is performing well with a 9%" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016234049111515589) 2026-01-27T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looks mesmerizing doesn't it There are definitely strong tailwinds for this selection but I do regret not putting any money into this portfolio back then. My real personal return for the same period is much humbler - around 30%. Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed. Checked it today out of curiosity. Turns out its doing +81% annualised vs 27% for the S&P. Stock picking isnt dead. It was just left unattended. Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed." [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016588755482656842) 2026-01-28T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WCD This stock is crushing the index. Key recent drivers: β Strong demand from cloud and AI workloads for durable high-capacity storage β Improving financial performance and profitability metrics β Capital returns (dividends and buybacks) β Positive analyst revisions and institutional flows β Strategic focus on core storage markets after restructuring Cloud storage (predominantly high-capacity nearline HDDs sold to cloud and hyperscale data centers) was by far the dominant product segment in FY2025 comprising the large majority of Western Digitals revenue as the company consolidated its" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016596314176291157) 2026-01-28T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "RT @pepemoonboy: Protect your sanity at all costs. The next few years it will be glaringly obvious who focused on their mental peace. Do" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016597509091610664) 2026-01-28T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@barkmeta You don't need to be Ray Dalio to understand this" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016622088337944609) 2026-01-28T21:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@GordonGekko Wrong. If a country imports more than it exports a weaker currency will make imports more expensive leading to inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016636036441391318) 2026-01-28T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BojanRadojici10 Wrong. Will not happen do not mislead people. AI is consistently wrong here and you will spend more time correcting mistakes rather than building a model yourself" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016764304750440682) 2026-01-29T06:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "RT @HiddenMonopoly: P/Es are meaningless Unless you understand ROIC-WACC and Earnings Growth" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016860542762119499) 2026-01-29T13:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "RT @SharkChart: Only this dude could see China whiskey tariffs and spin it into a $HIMS bull case Completely unserious analysis https://t" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016929499972079618) 2026-01-29T17:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think about this a lot recently. Zero DCF zero deep dives zero subscriptions were used to create this portfolio back in April. It was a simple excel formula using data downloaded from internet. Yet outperforming index by 50% in less than a year. Even before I had doubts that alpha can be improved when more time spent. Now I am almost confident there is zero value in any additional day of research. Looks mesmerizing doesn't it There are definitely strong tailwinds for this selection but I do regret not putting any money into this portfolio back then. My real personal return for the same" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2016988681358504259) 2026-01-29T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "RT @SharkChart: Dont be fooled 99.99% of accounts running a $100 to $100k challenge or similar are full of shit Look for those actuall" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017139843264844082) 2026-01-30T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@bgillespie08 @SharkChart @TheLongInvest Can you share results of your portfolio tracking 1k % in [----] you mentioned does not look realistic" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017278248527200439) 2026-01-30T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@IBKR That's because of USD depreciation. Not a real beat" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017288257092935818) 2026-01-30T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter Yes actually. Good im not in commodities. π β" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017329468847653177) 2026-01-30T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@unusual_whales Good I am not in commodities" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017329862818549938) 2026-01-30T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HUBB Hubbells main competitive advantage lies in its mission-critical specified supplies to regulated utilities. They had relatively high and improving returns on invested capital over the last few years. Analysts assign the company a wide moat citing its ability to generate consistent returns on invested capital over decades (due to pricing power and switching costs) and its resilient competitive position in electrical infrastructure markets. Hubbell outperformed the S&P [---] over the past few years because it sits at the intersection of regulated utility capex electrification & grid" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017338517710381313) 2026-01-30T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Analysts' ratings are complete trash. My average price for $PSN was [--] GBP when I was buying back in [----]. At that point the Morningstar FV estimate was [--] implying 50% margin of safety. I sold off relatively quickly with a 15% gain to reallocate my capital into something else. Guess what happened mid-2025 They revised FV estimate to [-----]. I mean it's ok to revise your thesis from time to time but this has happened so often that now I do not have any trust in FV estimates unless supported by calculation (they never disclose). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017608273025814755" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017608273025814755) 2026-01-31T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IMB This was my very first DCF model I prepared back in [----]. At that point fair value was determined at [--] GBP while the stock was trading at [--] GBP. Potential alpha looked very attractive. I factored in 0% growth and that it worked out as expected - revenue was flat for Imperial over the past few years. One mistake I made was regarding the cost of capital as 5% is definitely not accurate in this context. Nevertheless the stock price finally reached my FV estimate in December [----] delivering 19% in [--] years (I sold earlier with a decent gain). This was a no-brainer. Tobacco stocks in general" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017612522128351404) 2026-01-31T14:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "High growth high P/E. In some ROIC regimes more growth actually DESTROYS value. I built a multi-scenario P/E framework (Mauboussin-style extended) to show exactly when this happens. This changes how you read multiples π" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017659800759255445) 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Showing you how to apply this to $NVDA case. Current P/E [--]. Average 10Y ROIC approx. 30%. Then you look at the framework and find the P/E [--] multiple and the corresponding EPS growth intersection with ROIC meaning that the market is pricing 16% EPS growth for Nvidia within the next [--] years. If you believe that the market underestimates growth = buy. Otherwise hold or no action. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017659804471239133 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017659804471239133" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017659804471239133) 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key takeaway: π Low ROIC + high growth low P/E is rational π High ROIC + reinvestment runway premium P/E is earned. Multiples arent opinions. Theyre math" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017659807264538631) 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@pepemoonboy @GVDInvestor I don't think there is any alpha you can extract long-term from here. I haven't seen any such evidence" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2017883820947644525) 2026-02-01T08:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@dirtcheapbanks There is a reason why SLRK is so cheap. Loan Loss Reserve to Loans at 2.9% is extremely high suggesting poor credit risk management" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018040793118789844) 2026-02-01T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Aureliusltd28 @dirtcheapbanks Liquidity issues can be a real problem for investor. Especially when markets get a hit and you wanna sell fast to reallocate" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018041661503184947) 2026-02-01T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Luxury product luxury investment. After a 35% drawdown it may still be too early for $RACE to leave the pit lane. I ran a DCF to see whether the selloff is justified. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit growth @ 4-5% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. I am factoring EBITDA margin expansion for Ferrari from 40% today to 52% in [--] years. [--]. WACC @ 7.6%. The implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 19% [--]. The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales/Capital ratio adjusted for artificially inflated assets that dont scale" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018067595782430818) 2026-02-01T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@pepemoonboy @GVDInvestor I mean from trading based on X community (long-term). There is no evidence whatsoever that one can bit index by trading based on X cake (cumulative knowledge and experience)" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018088200284037422) 2026-02-01T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mvcinvesting @elonmusk @Starlink Bro everyone need this. There is a war in Ukraine and [---] outside" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018281452060782763) 2026-02-02T11:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Tell me exactly what's happening how many people died (i tell you how much [--] and additional terminal will not make them alive) etc. Do you have [---] and shaheds flying to your homes to kill citizens Stop moaning about "Families are separated" when in other countries additional starlink can literally save lives Open your eyes a little bit around and don't be so selfish" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018290296144933257) 2026-02-02T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PYPL Holy pain is this a new Western Union" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018671327855403134) 2026-02-03T13:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Tragic_trade Did you see [--] guidance They are now expecting basically zero growth similar to Western Union. Look at WU multiple there is still room for more pain. Be careful" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018676197916287019) 2026-02-03T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If it comes true this is not the first time NVO's revenue has declined. In [----] it declined by 4%. Following that the stock increased 5x from [--] in January [----] to an all-time high of [---] in [----]. We are not selling" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018797098658058655) 2026-02-03T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@leevalueroach Sewer rat how dare you are to call yourself like this))" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019012660097159399) 2026-02-04T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Invested_In_You It is now less relevant. Markets are global and borders are blurred. However some diversification is always a good thing" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019507146359284045) 2026-02-05T20:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Going to update my DCF models soon for $PYPL and $NVO. A lot has happened since last workings" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019713697967751487) 2026-02-06T10:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Dude is comparing market cap with revenue. No further comments from my side. $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019743948072186251) 2026-02-06T12:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Dude is comparing market cap with revenue. This is not analysis. People didn't realise that $NBIS should be looked upon as a start-up (it really is). With all related conclusions about risk etc. $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019744743370961146) 2026-02-06T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EndicottInvests @genZinvest0r You have no idea what you are talking about" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2019799567848395076) 2026-02-06T15:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Top-10 ETFs by 10Y Sharpe ratio: $SMH $GBTC $XLK $IYW $VGT $FTEC $IGM $SPMO $USD $IXN" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2003926370066502074) 2025-12-24T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DGE at [--] PE is not cheap despite 60% drawdown. Here is why: - revenue declining - low ROIC - low pricing power - consumer base keep shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2013216614498419028) 2026-01-19T11:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "You asked I deliver. Here is my actionable DCF model for $ADBE. Base case scenario suggests that the stock is trading at 17% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate an annual alpha 6%. Key assumptions: Explicit 5Y growth @ 8%. Most analysts suggest 10% growth or higher but I prefer to be conservative. You can call me a sandbagger. Alternatively you can use my bull case scenario which can better reflect your optimism. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 3% (long-term GDP growth for developed economies) WACC @ 8.7% An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] which I believe" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1969394467212796050) 2025-09-20T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UNH - DCF valuation model. Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 27% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate annual alpha 11%. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 5Y growth @ 6-7% Over the past decade UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has delivered consistently strong revenue growth expanding from about $157 billion in [----] to roughly $400 billion in [----]. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 11%. Year-over-year growth has generally ranged between 7% and 15% with recent years showing some moderation as the companys scale has increased for" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/1981084556070703580) 2025-10-22T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@SEC_digger @dirtcheapbanks The LRBI portfolio looks safer I agree" [X Link](https://x.com/CompoundingLab/status/2018059763653783580) 2026-02-01T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@CompoundingLab Compounding LabCompounding Lab posts on X about longterm, strong, company, the most the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 56.3% finance 36.97% technology brands 11.76% cryptocurrencies 3.36% currencies 3.36% countries 2.52% luxury brands 1.68% automotive brands 1.68% financial services 0.84% celebrities 0.84%
Social topic influence longterm #602, strong 6.72%, company 4.2%, the most 4.2%, growth 4.2%, model 4.2%, business 4.2%, investment 3.36%, $spy 2.52%, market cap 2.52%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ichlerne2 @leevalueroach @pepemoonboy @sharkchart @dirtcheapbanks @chartslion @thelonginvest @investseekers @gvdinvestor @simonepaglia75 @tihobrkan @gnufs @nataninvesting @moneycruncher @stonkmetal @ragingbullcap @oguzerkan @simonhoiberg @discountedtr @barkmeta
Top assets mentioned SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) PG&E, Corp. (PCG) Edison International (EIX) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Progressive Corp (PGR) Hubbell, Inc. (HUBB) Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Paylocity Holding, Corp. (PCTY) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB) EQT, Corp. (EQT) Range Resources, Corp. (RRC) LPL Financial Holdings, Inc. (LPLA) Iqvia Holdings Inc (IQV) Icon Plc (ICLR) Paycom Software Inc (PAYC) GoDaddy, Inc. (GDDY) Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Rollins, Inc. (ROL) General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Ubiquiti, Inc. (UI) Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) Minted (MTD) PPL Corp (PPL) Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Today Passive ETFs manage c. 14% of the total US market cap. Still a long way to go. Likely destination range 5060% of equity fund assets. It means that ETFs like $SPY $VOO $VGT will keep outperforming stock pickers"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TihoBrkan All correct but applying that judgement consistently require a lot of luck time skills etc. Average investor will be better off with index fund"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheLongInvest Do you have proof of this I don't trust this chart"
X Link 2025-05-12T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Payroll Showdown: $PAYX vs $PCTY"
X Link 2025-08-05T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Realty Income $O - The Gold Standard in Dividend Real Estate"
X Link 2025-08-06T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Can $FICO Rebound A Wide-Moat Compounder Trading Below Fair Value. This company is a real beast. Only a handful of companies can improve ROIC from 13% to almost 50% in just [--] years. Shareholders love it. As a result beating index on all timeframes except for the most recent year. Lets examine what is happening here. Fair Isaac Corp has experienced a mixed track record relative to the S&P [---] across different time horizons. Over the past [--] months FICO shares have declined 22.5% underperforming the S&P 500s 20% gain. However looking longer-term FICO has significantly outpaced the index. Over"
X Link 2025-08-20T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$WAB: Why This Industrial Compounder Keeps Chugging Ahead Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies is one of those industrial names that rarely makes headlines but quietly powers critical infrastructure across global freight and transit markets. The company sits at the intersection of transportation automation and decarbonization making its fundamentals worth a closer look. With a balance of recurring aftermarket revenues and exposure to long-cycle equipment cycles Wabtec has carved out a durable position in the rail ecosystem. That durability is underpinned by consistent returns on capital and an"
X Link 2025-10-13T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@gnufs Even with 5-6% growth factored still undervalued"
X Link 2025-10-23T06:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Battle for the basin β $EQT vs $RRC the gas titan face-off"
X Link 2025-11-01T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone talks about Goldman. Nobody talks about $LPLA. Heres why they should"
X Link 2025-11-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"β $PCG vs $EIX: Californias utility heavyweights go head-to-head"
X Link 2025-11-06T20:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IQV vs $ICLR: Data Giant vs Execution Machine Place Your Bets"
X Link 2025-11-16T10:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I was considering preparing DCF for $TEP.PA but after conducting research on the current situation of the company and industry trends I came to the conclusion that Onepager will be enough. Teleperformance peaked around [---] in early January [----] and trades near [--] today 85% decline from that peak. There are several key reasons why $TEP.PA shares have fallen sharply: many are structural tied to market fears and some to more company-specific issues. Heres a breakdown: 1) AI Disruption Fears The big one: investors worry that artificial intelligence will replace large parts of Teleperformances"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVR is widely viewed as best-in-class homebuilder because of its combination of unique structural advantages disciplined operations and exceptional long-term performance"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PAYC Just [--] years ago Paycom Software Inc had an earnings yield of 2-3%. Even with very decent median Return on Capital of 31% and Revenue growth @ 29% something clearly did not align with the shareholders' expectations back then resulting in negative stock performance on 5Y 3Y and 1Y timeframes. Only on 10Y timeframe still shows decent 14.57%. ROIC was heading lower for the last 5Y and the same for growth with the lowest rate in [----] and [----] (just 11%). That is not what shareholders initially expected. Currently the earnings yield provides 5% which indicates that shares are slightly"
X Link 2025-11-26T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GDDY: Strong Setup or Still Sleeping See the Data"
X Link 2025-11-27T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is $ALGN Quietly Realigning for a Comeback"
X Link 2025-12-01T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ROL Bugs Billions & Big Moat: The Pest Control Giant Quietly Eating Market Share"
X Link 2025-12-03T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GIS Here is why you should not base your decisions solely on a multiple that is lowest in a decade. In 95% of cases there will be a reason why company is trading where it is. Let's break it down using General Mills "defensive" play as an example. At first glance revenue is flat and FCF is only slightly up. So we can say it's a stable entity that is growing in line with inflation. However when you look at acquisitions over the last [--] years there is 10B USD spent as per cash flow statement. You literally need to deduct those cash flows when calculating FCF because those are not "growth""
X Link 2025-12-12T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fast Lunch or Sit-Down Dinner $CMG vs $DRI"
X Link 2025-12-19T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UI 71% YTD. Incredible ROIC. Founder-Led. Cash-Rich. Under the Radar"
X Link 2025-12-20T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TYL: The Silent Software Powering Government Cash Flows. Tyler Technologies was underperforming the index across all timeframes to such an extent that it now seems meaningfully undervalued. Revenue segmentation reflects Tylers continuing shift toward cloud-centric recurring revenue (SaaS + transaction fees) as its dominant source of growth. EPS however is not growing in line with Revenue which is why ROIC is declining. It can still be a decent buy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002750194266276271 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002750194266276271"
X Link 2025-12-21T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every Signal Needs a Tower $SBAC Owns Them"
X Link 2025-12-21T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MTD is what everyone wants to own: Elite ROIC Durable margins Strong compounding The problem Youre paying for perfection. Would you buy at $1412"
X Link 2025-12-23T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not All Power Stocks Are Created Equal Meet $PPL"
X Link 2025-12-24T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CBOE Dominant high-moat position in options and volatility trading combined with structurally high margins and recurring fee revenue. Revenue spike in [----] due to the acquisition of Bats Global Markets. Subsequent ROIC dropped to low double-digits due to increased capital. Largest 10Y drawdown -44%. Stock price outperforming S&P recently. Mauboussin cheatsheet should be P/E [--] vs [--] actual. Shares overvalued. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012825051834339494 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012825051834339494"
X Link 2026-01-18T09:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ATO Atmos owns irreplaceable gas infrastructure in territories where it faces no real competition and regulators allow it to earn a steady (6% on average) return on that investment. The majority of natural gas is supplied to residential buildings. Earnings are increasing steadily at 6% annually which is an excellent rate for a regulated utility. This growth aligns closely with revenue growth although revenue tends to fluctuate significantly from year to year (which is normal and expected for this industry). 28% operating margin is also considered very strong for a regulated utility. Stock"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As promised Im releasing my $PGR valuation model (DDM with a terminal multiple cross-check). I spent half a day building the model and stress-testing assumptions. Result: Progressive appears undervalued by 25%. If the stock converges to fair value over the next [--] years this implies 10% annual alpha. Key assumptions: [--]. Long-term EPS growth: 4% [--]. ROE remains structurally high at 32% [--]. Cost of Equity: 6.5% (Patreon followers have full visibility of calculation) [--]. P/E exit multiple: [----] Key points: πΉ Progressive has the highest 10Y average ROA among listed P&C insurers (5.68%). πΉ #2 U.S."
X Link 2026-01-25T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CPAY: a high-margin payments machine. Big Business Scale: Corpay generated about $4 billion in revenue in [----] and serves 800000+ business clients globally - not small change. Profit Power: Adjusted net income was roughly $1.4 billion in [----] showing strong profitability in a payments-led model. Global Reach: The company helps businesses pay everything from fuel & EV charging to lodging and payables across multiple continents. S&P [---] Member: Corpay is part of the S&P [---] index signaling size and stability among U.S. public companies. Rebrand Spotlight: Formerly part of Fleetcor the company"
X Link 2026-01-25T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CNP vs $ES: Texas Powerhouse or New England Fortress"
X Link 2026-01-26T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$EXPE A strong recovery across all metrics is clearly visible since Covid-19 when Expedia Group was hit extremely hard as global travel essentially stopped. For the full year [----] total revenue collapsed by around 57% compared to [----] as travel restrictions and lockdowns decimated bookings. The market reacted by dropping the stock value by 71%. Subsequent recovery was expected - macro trends vaccine rollouts and early booking data pointed toward a rebound in travel demand that benefited Expedia as the world reopened. Recently revenue growth was just 5% YTD below the 10Y CAGR of 13%."
X Link 2026-01-29T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone agrees $HUBB is a great business. Wide moat. High ROIC. Grid spending tailwinds. Thats exactly why Im not buying it. Hubbell sells mission-critical components utilities cant easily replace. Switching costs are real. Pricing power is real. This part of the story already worked. The market noticed. Returns on capital improved. Margins expanded. The stock crushed the S&P. None of this is a secret anymore. Heres where it gets uncomfortable: Revenue growth is basically flat right now. Yet the stock trades like growth is guaranteed. The bull case assumes: grid spending keeps accelerating"
X Link 2026-01-31T10:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Luxury product luxury investment. After a 35% drawdown it may still be too early for $RACE to leave the pit lane. I ran a DCF to see whether the selloff is justified. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit growth @ 4-5% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. I am factoring EBITDA margin expansion for Ferrari from 40% today to 52% in [--] years. [--]. WACC @ 7.6%. The implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 19% [--]. The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales/Capital ratio adjusted for artificially inflated assets that dont scale"
X Link 2026-02-01T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@nataninvesting Dude I think you should start questioning your conviction. When I look at western union it's also 20% yield. [--] years in a row"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@money_cruncher This should not be shocking at all. And you don't need to wait for Vanguard to tell you this. I am projecting actual returns will be somewhere between -5% to + 5%"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I just published the updated $NVO intrinsic value calculation. Also available on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/posts/nvo-dcf-model-150234985 https://t.co/moPq9xlpcd https://www.patreon.com/posts/nvo-dcf-model-150234985 https://t.co/moPq9xlpcd"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@investseekers I hold both Pandora and Novo. Not gonna sell with losses"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@IchLerne2 That's why I am holding"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$PHM Average 10Y ROIC 14% None Moat Average fcfe [--] years/price per share 5% Standard 10Y deviation of FCF per share 80% ROIC 10Y coefficient of variation 39% Market Price $135 Fair value $116 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 17%"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The LEI continued to decline in October and November [----]. This indicator will eventually work out as expected. Not to scare anyone but to prepare for the imminent market crash. If you have been following me long enough and reading my monthly letters you are already ahead"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stonkmetal Isn't it current market price at the moment [----] There is no way you can get more they are buying from the market. You have no choice other than to sell it's open market"
X Link 2026-02-09T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LH 10Y ROIC Average 9% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 32% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share 7% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 44% Narrow Moat Market Price $277 Fair value $273 Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 2%"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@leevalueroach Fine but [--] % of people will underperform index no matter how much time they spend"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@leevalueroach Read Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand if you are interested in this"
X Link 2026-02-11T07:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ULTA 10Y ROIC Average 27% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 29% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share 4% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 56% Narrow Moat Market Price $679 Fair value $462 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 47%"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ragingbullcap @leevalueroach Exactly. The very difference between value and growth investing is just a hoax. In reality there is a reason why companies trade at low multiples and you are praying for Terminal value to remain there"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMZN trading at [--] P/E is justified"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is $EFX the Next Moodys Quick Dive Into the Forgotten Data Moat 1/ Introduction Equifax Inc. sits at the intersection of data credit and trust a business built on information but valued on execution. While its often viewed through the same lens as peers like Experian or TransUnion Equifax has quietly evolved into a diversified human capital and analytics engine. That evolution has redefined its fundamentals: recurring revenue now makes up over half its top line and its data assets stretch far beyond credit files into employment income and identity verification. Yet the stocks muted"
X Link 2025-11-02T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Water stock ran dry The $AWK story you mightve missed"
X Link 2025-11-23T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$RH vs $WSM Williams Sonoma is a perfect example of how ROIC drives stock returns"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Follow the flow: how $XYL makes every drop count ππ§"
X Link 2025-11-04T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TROW is trading like a broken asset manager - but the math says its being priced like a melting ice cube while still earning elite returns and carrying zero debt. Either the business is quietly deteriorating or the market is badly misreading it. I ran the numbers - they dont match the narrative. Introduction T. Rowe Price looks like a value trap at first glance. Years of stock underperformance versus the S&P [---] and persistent outflows from active funds have pushed sentiment into the basement. But underneath the weak chart sits a business with double-digit returns on capital fortress balance"
X Link 2026-02-08T10:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@oguzerkan What do you have to support your claims Price/sales is not enough. You should know by now that ROIC is equally important as growth"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LII 10Y ROIC Average 32% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 10% FCFE 3Y Average per share $17 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 49% Narrow Moat Market Price $567 Fair value $560 Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 1% The ROIC stability is impressive here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626023410438163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626023410438163"
X Link 2026-02-14T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DLTR 10Y ROIC Average 10% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation 17% FCFE 3Y Average per share $7 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation 45% None Moat Market Price $126 Fair value $116 Shares OVERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 9% Price recovered recently but this is not the stock I will bet on. When ROIC = WACC it's not good. Not surprised at all to see $DLTR underperform S&P. Investors don't appreciate falling ROIC. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022638351199752318 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022638351199752318"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I do believe Adobe is currently undervalued but I am not planning to buy more since it already makes up 3% of my portfolio. I rarely go to 5% and only with high-conviction low-volatility stocks. It will be interesting to observe whether EMH will succeed this time or not. Finally my $ADBE model was updated with the figures from the most recent quarter. Discount to intrinsic value: 12%. Changes made: - Updated tax rate. Credit to one of my followers who spotted this error. - Unlevered free cash flow formula updated as it was adding back https://t.co/AjcEcFfdnc Finally my $ADBE model was updated"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PRX.AS As of the most recent filings Prosus N.V. holds about a [--] % stake in Tencent Holdings Limited - making it one of Tencents largest shareholders. Prosus trades at a discount to just its Tencent stake alone - meaning the market is assigning negative or near-zero value to the rest of Prosuss portfolio (food delivery classifieds fintech edtech etc.). This disconnect is exactly why Prosus is often seen as: * A discounted Tencent proxy * A NAV arbitrage opportunity * A buyback-driven value story Management has been trying to close the gap via aggressive buybacks funded by partial Tencent"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Selling full holding of $BWA today - price close to my fair value. Also trimming $GOOG and $SBH a bit. The projected stress value in case of 50% market collapse is now 31%. How are you hedging"
X Link 2025-09-11T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CQP: The LNG Cash Machine Powering Americas Energy Exports"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CDW: the infrastructure backbone Wall Street ignores π $CDW isnt a tech company - its the toll booth. Every IT upgrade cloud migration or security refresh flows through distributors like CDW. π Approx. 90% of revenue comes from repeat customers. IT budgets renew. Hardware breaks. Software licenses expire. CDW lives off replacement cycles. π More than half of Fortune [---] companies buy from CDW. Its embedded deep in enterprise IT procurement - switching costs are quietly high. π Margins look boring - returns arent. Low margins high volume fast inventory turns = strong ROIC. π CDW sells"
X Link 2026-01-24T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Buy homebuilders below book. Sounds smart. Until you compare $LGIH at [---] P/B with $NVR at [--]. Book value isnt the asset. Business quality is"
X Link 2026-01-31T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NTAP 10Y ROIC Average 21% 10Y ROIC Coefficient of variation33% FCFE 5Y Average/Price per share6% 10Y FCFE per share Coefficient of variation29% NarrowMoat Market Price$103 Fair value$130 SharesUNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+)-20%"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PNDORA DCF valuation model. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 10Y growth @ 4-5%. For [----] I am incorporating 1% based on Pandoras target for organic revenue growth of -1% to 2%. [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. Drop by [---] bps in EBITDA margin for [----] but gradual recovery to normal 30-31% range. [--]. WACC @ 8.6%. Implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 24% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = [---] Conclusion: Valuation suggests that the PNDORA is trading at 48% discount to fair value."
X Link 2026-02-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SimonHoiberg There is no capital gain tax in Malta not even realised gains. You think it will change"
X Link 2026-02-15T09:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PDD DCF valuation model Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 10Y growth @ 6-9% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. 22% EBITDA Margin gradually improving as sales and marketing costs go down as a % of revenue. [--]. WACC @ 9.8%. [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 22% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = [--] Conclusion: Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 47% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate 24% in annual alpha. Therefore I will make a small entry tomorrow (2% of the portfolio)."
X Link 2026-02-15T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PRX.AS As of the most recent filings Prosus N.V. holds about a [--] % stake in Tencent Holdings Limited - making it one of Tencents largest shareholders. Prosus trades at a discount to just its Tencent stake alone - meaning the market is assigning negative or near-zero value to the rest of Prosuss portfolio (food delivery classifieds fintech edtech etc.). This disconnect is exactly why Prosus is often seen as: * A discounted Tencent proxy * A NAV arbitrage opportunity * A buyback-driven value story Management has been trying to close the gap via aggressive buybacks funded by partial Tencent"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get a cup of coffee. In this post I'll walk you through $AMZN fundamentals. What do you think is the biggest mistake in valuing Amazon Treating it like a retailer. AMZN is no longer just a retailer - it is one of the most structurally complex profit engines in global equities. What looks like a low-margin online store on the surface is underneath a layered ecosystem spanning commerce cloud infrastructure logistics advertising and subscription economics. With over $600B in annual revenue dominant share in U.S. e-commerce and a global cloud platform that underpins much of the internet Amazon"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPMO quite surprisingly had only 31% max 10Y drawdown lower than $USMV or $SPLV. SPMO is a momentum ETF and is expected to be riskier than low-volatility ETFs. However the reality shows a different story which I find quite weird π§. Add to this 10Y returns: $SPMO - 17.93% $SPY - 14.53% And you will get a superior Sharpe ratio meaning you can get much better risk-adjusted returns than the S&P500. Crazy market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008259092817514668 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008259092817514668"
X Link 2026-01-05T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HPQ: Old Brand Still Printing Cash HP sells a PC every few seconds yet PCs are not where most of the profit is made. Printer ink has margins comparable to luxury goods - and its a recurring revenue engine. 70% of HP revenue comes from Personal Systems but Printing drives a disproportionate share of operating profit. HP operates one of the largest installed printer bases globally locking in years of consumables demand. Commercial customers dominate HPs revenue making cash flows more stable than consumer-only PC brands. HP generates strong free cash flow even in weak PC cycles supporting"
X Link 2026-01-07T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PGR in it's largest long-term drawdown starts looking attractive. Opening small position today"
X Link 2026-01-19T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Before we decide whether we need this stock $NOW lets examine its DCF valuation model. My base-case scenario suggests the stock is trading at fair value. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 5Y growth @ 20% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 3.6% [--]. Improvement in EBITDA margin by 10% until [----]. [--]. WACC @ 9%. [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 15% [--]. Reinvestment: The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales to Capital ratio = [---] Sensitivity and bull/bear case available on my Patreon (link in bio). Conclusion: Fairly priced but since it's a wonderful company it may still"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"RT @CompoundingLab: β $PCG vs $EIX: Californias utility heavyweights go head-to-head"
X Link 2026-01-24T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Introducing new valuation workings for financial institutions - Dividend Discount Model. Until now I was focusing on traditional sectors. This will change soon as I will begin coverage of banks/insurers utilising the DDM model. The model is more straightforward than DCF but it will still be useful in informing our investment decisions. N.B. This picture is not my work just an example"
X Link 2026-01-24T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @CompoundingLab: $CSGP Can someone explain to me how it is possible Market cap - $30B. Never generated more than $400 mln in free c"
X Link 2026-01-25T12:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"RT @CompoundingLab: $UNH - DCF valuation model. Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 27% discount to fair value. If adjusted to"
X Link 2026-01-26T10:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"RT @DiscountedTr: rides daddy's coattails born a rich kid of a Congressman and stockbroker stacks Berkshire board with son and his o"
X Link 2026-01-27T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed. Checked it today out of curiosity. Turns out its doing +81% annualised vs 27% for the S&P. Stock picking isnt dead. It was just left unattended. Updated YTD performance for my hypothetical "Best Growth+ROIC" portfolio. This portfolio is performing well with a 9% alpha over the S&P [---] in the three months since its inception. $SPY $VGT $VOO https://t.co/zlKY1RrglC Updated YTD performance for my hypothetical "Best Growth+ROIC" portfolio. This portfolio is performing well with a 9%"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looks mesmerizing doesn't it There are definitely strong tailwinds for this selection but I do regret not putting any money into this portfolio back then. My real personal return for the same period is much humbler - around 30%. Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed. Checked it today out of curiosity. Turns out its doing +81% annualised vs 27% for the S&P. Stock picking isnt dead. It was just left unattended. Folks this was a demo portfolio I threw together with a basic screener back in April. Then I forgot it existed."
X Link 2026-01-28T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WCD This stock is crushing the index. Key recent drivers: β Strong demand from cloud and AI workloads for durable high-capacity storage β Improving financial performance and profitability metrics β Capital returns (dividends and buybacks) β Positive analyst revisions and institutional flows β Strategic focus on core storage markets after restructuring Cloud storage (predominantly high-capacity nearline HDDs sold to cloud and hyperscale data centers) was by far the dominant product segment in FY2025 comprising the large majority of Western Digitals revenue as the company consolidated its"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @pepemoonboy: Protect your sanity at all costs. The next few years it will be glaringly obvious who focused on their mental peace. Do"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@barkmeta You don't need to be Ray Dalio to understand this"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@GordonGekko Wrong. If a country imports more than it exports a weaker currency will make imports more expensive leading to inflation"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BojanRadojici10 Wrong. Will not happen do not mislead people. AI is consistently wrong here and you will spend more time correcting mistakes rather than building a model yourself"
X Link 2026-01-29T06:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"RT @HiddenMonopoly: P/Es are meaningless Unless you understand ROIC-WACC and Earnings Growth"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"RT @SharkChart: Only this dude could see China whiskey tariffs and spin it into a $HIMS bull case Completely unserious analysis https://t"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think about this a lot recently. Zero DCF zero deep dives zero subscriptions were used to create this portfolio back in April. It was a simple excel formula using data downloaded from internet. Yet outperforming index by 50% in less than a year. Even before I had doubts that alpha can be improved when more time spent. Now I am almost confident there is zero value in any additional day of research. Looks mesmerizing doesn't it There are definitely strong tailwinds for this selection but I do regret not putting any money into this portfolio back then. My real personal return for the same"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @SharkChart: Dont be fooled 99.99% of accounts running a $100 to $100k challenge or similar are full of shit Look for those actuall"
X Link 2026-01-30T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@bgillespie08 @SharkChart @TheLongInvest Can you share results of your portfolio tracking 1k % in [----] you mentioned does not look realistic"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@IBKR That's because of USD depreciation. Not a real beat"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Yes actually. Good im not in commodities. π
β"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@unusual_whales Good I am not in commodities"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUBB Hubbells main competitive advantage lies in its mission-critical specified supplies to regulated utilities. They had relatively high and improving returns on invested capital over the last few years. Analysts assign the company a wide moat citing its ability to generate consistent returns on invested capital over decades (due to pricing power and switching costs) and its resilient competitive position in electrical infrastructure markets. Hubbell outperformed the S&P [---] over the past few years because it sits at the intersection of regulated utility capex electrification & grid"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Analysts' ratings are complete trash. My average price for $PSN was [--] GBP when I was buying back in [----]. At that point the Morningstar FV estimate was [--] implying 50% margin of safety. I sold off relatively quickly with a 15% gain to reallocate my capital into something else. Guess what happened mid-2025 They revised FV estimate to [-----]. I mean it's ok to revise your thesis from time to time but this has happened so often that now I do not have any trust in FV estimates unless supported by calculation (they never disclose). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017608273025814755"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IMB This was my very first DCF model I prepared back in [----]. At that point fair value was determined at [--] GBP while the stock was trading at [--] GBP. Potential alpha looked very attractive. I factored in 0% growth and that it worked out as expected - revenue was flat for Imperial over the past few years. One mistake I made was regarding the cost of capital as 5% is definitely not accurate in this context. Nevertheless the stock price finally reached my FV estimate in December [----] delivering 19% in [--] years (I sold earlier with a decent gain). This was a no-brainer. Tobacco stocks in general"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"High growth high P/E. In some ROIC regimes more growth actually DESTROYS value. I built a multi-scenario P/E framework (Mauboussin-style extended) to show exactly when this happens. This changes how you read multiples π"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Showing you how to apply this to $NVDA case. Current P/E [--]. Average 10Y ROIC approx. 30%. Then you look at the framework and find the P/E [--] multiple and the corresponding EPS growth intersection with ROIC meaning that the market is pricing 16% EPS growth for Nvidia within the next [--] years. If you believe that the market underestimates growth = buy. Otherwise hold or no action. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017659804471239133 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017659804471239133"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key takeaway: π Low ROIC + high growth low P/E is rational π High ROIC + reinvestment runway premium P/E is earned. Multiples arent opinions. Theyre math"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pepemoonboy @GVDInvestor I don't think there is any alpha you can extract long-term from here. I haven't seen any such evidence"
X Link 2026-02-01T08:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@dirtcheapbanks There is a reason why SLRK is so cheap. Loan Loss Reserve to Loans at 2.9% is extremely high suggesting poor credit risk management"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 @dirtcheapbanks Liquidity issues can be a real problem for investor. Especially when markets get a hit and you wanna sell fast to reallocate"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Luxury product luxury investment. After a 35% drawdown it may still be too early for $RACE to leave the pit lane. I ran a DCF to see whether the selloff is justified. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit growth @ 4-5% [--]. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.6% [--]. I am factoring EBITDA margin expansion for Ferrari from 40% today to 52% in [--] years. [--]. WACC @ 7.6%. The implied market return used in the calculation is 8.2% [--]. An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] [--]. Tax rate 19% [--]. The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales/Capital ratio adjusted for artificially inflated assets that dont scale"
X Link 2026-02-01T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@pepemoonboy @GVDInvestor I mean from trading based on X community (long-term). There is no evidence whatsoever that one can bit index by trading based on X cake (cumulative knowledge and experience)"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mvcinvesting @elonmusk @Starlink Bro everyone need this. There is a war in Ukraine and [---] outside"
X Link 2026-02-02T11:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Tell me exactly what's happening how many people died (i tell you how much [--] and additional terminal will not make them alive) etc. Do you have [---] and shaheds flying to your homes to kill citizens Stop moaning about "Families are separated" when in other countries additional starlink can literally save lives Open your eyes a little bit around and don't be so selfish"
X Link 2026-02-02T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PYPL Holy pain is this a new Western Union"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Tragic_trade Did you see [--] guidance They are now expecting basically zero growth similar to Western Union. Look at WU multiple there is still room for more pain. Be careful"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If it comes true this is not the first time NVO's revenue has declined. In [----] it declined by 4%. Following that the stock increased 5x from [--] in January [----] to an all-time high of [---] in [----]. We are not selling"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@leevalueroach Sewer rat how dare you are to call yourself like this))"
X Link 2026-02-04T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Invested_In_You It is now less relevant. Markets are global and borders are blurred. However some diversification is always a good thing"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Going to update my DCF models soon for $PYPL and $NVO. A lot has happened since last workings"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Dude is comparing market cap with revenue. No further comments from my side. $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Dude is comparing market cap with revenue. This is not analysis. People didn't realise that $NBIS should be looked upon as a start-up (it really is). With all related conclusions about risk etc. $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc $NBIS is in the $60s after hours $NBIS market cap ($17.2B) is now LESS than the base value of the $MSFT contract ($17.4B) Insanityπ΅π« https://t.co/AQf2cvndOc"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EndicottInvests @genZinvest0r You have no idea what you are talking about"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Top-10 ETFs by 10Y Sharpe ratio: $SMH $GBTC $XLK $IYW $VGT $FTEC $IGM $SPMO $USD $IXN"
X Link 2025-12-24T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DGE at [--] PE is not cheap despite 60% drawdown. Here is why: - revenue declining - low ROIC - low pricing power - consumer base keep shrinking"
X Link 2026-01-19T11:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You asked I deliver. Here is my actionable DCF model for $ADBE. Base case scenario suggests that the stock is trading at 17% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate an annual alpha 6%. Key assumptions: Explicit 5Y growth @ 8%. Most analysts suggest 10% growth or higher but I prefer to be conservative. You can call me a sandbagger. Alternatively you can use my bull case scenario which can better reflect your optimism. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 3% (long-term GDP growth for developed economies) WACC @ 8.7% An EBITDA exit multiple of [----] which I believe"
X Link 2025-09-20T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UNH - DCF valuation model. Valuation suggests that the stock is trading at 27% discount to fair value. If adjusted to FV within [--] years it will generate annual alpha 11%. Key assumptions: [--]. Explicit 5Y growth @ 6-7% Over the past decade UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has delivered consistently strong revenue growth expanding from about $157 billion in [----] to roughly $400 billion in [----]. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 11%. Year-over-year growth has generally ranged between 7% and 15% with recent years showing some moderation as the companys scale has increased for"
X Link 2025-10-22T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SEC_digger @dirtcheapbanks The LRBI portfolio looks safer I agree"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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