#  @Claudia_Sahm Claudia Sahm Claudia Sahm posts on X about inflation, fed, in the, kevin warsh the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2592325153/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +120% - [--] Month [---------] +336% - [--] Months [---------] +1,951% - [--] Year [---------] -35% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2592325153/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] +170% - [--] Month [---] +177% - [--] Months [---] +1,182% - [--] Year [---] -55% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2592325153/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +11% - [--] Month [------] +12% - [--] Months [------] +15% - [--] Year [------] +14% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2592325153/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #2938 [us election](/list/us-election) 2.04% [countries](/list/countries) 1.53% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 1.02% [stocks](/list/stocks) 0.51% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 0.51% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 0.51% **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation) #64, [fed](/topic/fed) #92, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4.08%, [kevin warsh](/topic/kevin-warsh) #93, [fomc](/topic/fomc) 2.55%, [white house](/topic/white-house) #2175, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #362, [agencies](/topic/agencies) 2.55%, [federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve) #22, [data](/topic/data) 1.53% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@claudiasahm](/creator/undefined) [@mcclellanosc](/creator/undefined) [@piptrain](/creator/undefined) [@lpopnh](/creator/undefined) [@opinion](/creator/undefined) [@joe_sap](/creator/undefined) [@moderatepete](/creator/undefined) [@alantonelson](/creator/undefined) [@capitianm](/creator/undefined) [@rinsana](/creator/undefined) [@fizxphrique](/creator/undefined) [@joehickory2](/creator/undefined) [@bostonfed](/creator/undefined) [@yahoofinance](/creator/undefined) [@blsgov](/creator/undefined) [@byheatherlong](/creator/undefined) [@jimwelshmacro](/creator/undefined) [@_wealthformula](/creator/undefined) [@buckjoffrey](/creator/undefined) [@bernstein_brian](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Gains (GAINS)](/topic/gains) [Dogecoin (DOGE)](/topic/doge) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@AlanTonelson Unemployment rate is up percentage point (over past few years) from its historical lows. Low hiring is a problem even though paired with low firing" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2016302948653969777) 2026-01-28T00:10Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements ""Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics: Brett Matsumoto the next chief has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015." Excellent choice https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-picks-veteran-staffer-to-head-bureau-of-labor-statistics-f728acdest=Sd3nW9&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-picks-veteran-staffer-to-head-bureau-of-labor-statistics-f728acdest=Sd3nW9&reflink=article_copyURL_share" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2017347686781911208) 2026-01-30T21:22Z 73.8K followers, 35.3K engagements "Hilarious. One day after announcing Kevin Warsh as his choice to run the Fed Trump joked during a speech on Saturday night that he would sue Warsh if Warsh doesnt lower rates. Warsh had been on the guest list of attendees at the elite Alfalfa Club dinner. https://t.co/SdyFZrq3dT One day after announcing Kevin Warsh as his choice to run the Fed Trump joked during a speech on Saturday night that he would sue Warsh if Warsh doesnt lower rates. Warsh had been on the guest list of attendees at the elite Alfalfa Club dinner. https://t.co/SdyFZrq3dT" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2017943368446128168) 2026-02-01T12:49Z 73.8K followers, 29.1K engagements "Link: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018101590406635979) 2026-02-01T23:18Z 73.8K followers, 18.2K engagements "Sometimes I wonder if Warsh even worked at the Fed. Warsh in 2016: "The economic brain trust at the Fed is a precious public resource. It ought not to be squandered by repeating outputs of broken models. The economic talent assembled should be aimed squarely at the toughest most consequential economic issues of our time for Warsh in 2016: "The economic brain trust at the Fed is a precious public resource. It ought not to be squandered by repeating outputs of broken models. The economic talent assembled should be aimed squarely at the toughest most consequential economic issues of our time for" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018405298721960149) 2026-02-02T19:24Z 73.7K followers, 16.6K engagements "Skepticism is healthy. I was taught to be skeptical of all these things **at the Fed** as an economist. But we still used: data models forecasting and targets. Also Warsh really should listen to Bernanke here" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018426470113178043) 2026-02-02T20:49Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements "Was nice of them to share my piece. I tried hard to show not tell here I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.) https://t.co/y36tiypHEV I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.) https://t.co/y36tiypHEV" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018474245094088753) 2026-02-02T23:58Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "@charles17187887 CPI-U is data. He's skeptical of that" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018728219109908558) 2026-02-03T16:48Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "It can be a bit hard to follow the conversations here so doing a thread to stitch together a back and forth with @McClellanOsc. Kicked off by my ask: "Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate" In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be a measure success In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018786358681358360) 2026-02-03T20:39Z 73.8K followers, 24K engagements "@McClellanOsc I appreciate @McClellanOsc taking my question seriously. I sat down to write a piece yesterday evaluating the new regime Warsh wants at the Fed. After a lot of reading I could not find one. Tom at least gave me something to think about" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018792200805794013) 2026-02-03T21:02Z 73.8K followers, 15.4K engagements "Public says different. https://news.gallup.com/poll/700241/americans-end-year-gloomy-mood.aspx Bessent Says Fed Lacks Accountability and Has Lost Public Trust https://t.co/ipfCyIbdSs via @NYTimes https://news.gallup.com/poll/700241/americans-end-year-gloomy-mood.aspx Bessent Says Fed Lacks Accountability and Has Lost Public Trust https://t.co/ipfCyIbdSs via @NYTimes" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019403760003608763) 2026-02-05T13:32Z 73.8K followers, 25K engagements "Yes Brett Matsumoto has my full endorsement for BLS Commissioner. Hes a true subject matter expert and public servant. BLS must get more funding too Brett Matsumoto at the BLS is endorsed by @Claudia_Sahm Thats a huge plus and reassuring. Trumps previous pick EJ Antoni was MAGA through and through Brett Matsumoto at the BLS is endorsed by @Claudia_Sahm Thats a huge plus and reassuring. Trumps previous pick EJ Antoni was MAGA through and through" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019567133282467863) 2026-02-06T00:21Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "@CapitianM No Powell has been a voice of soberness and humility throughout a very rough eight years. Hes earned that vote of confidence and more" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019570989894668547) 2026-02-06T00:37Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "Shocked. Are female economists treated differently than male economists in academic seminars These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research. So they built a massive dataset of 2000+ economics seminars job talks and conference https://t.co/5AMj0v8Il9 Are female economists treated differently than male economists in academic seminars These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research. So they built a massive dataset of 2000+ economics seminars job talks and conference https://t.co/5AMj0v8Il9" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019586669767475239) 2026-02-06T01:39Z 73.7K followers, [----] engagements "On a more positive note: the other one did a lot of work later to improve the seminar culture he also apologized. The fact that this study even exists is a sign of progress in economics" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019595246724870661) 2026-02-06T02:13Z 73.7K followers, [----] engagements "@GeorgeSelgin I am happy to use the alternate chart and/or ignore the data before [----] (another suggestion I heard). I am not looking for or pushing a rave review of the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019737958908391533) 2026-02-06T11:40Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements "Good convo especially on inner workings of Fed and changing approaches across Chairs. Theres some criticism of Warsh here even if subtle in its framing. NEW ODD LOTS: It's Rich Clarida on Kevin Warsh @tracyalloway and I talk to the Fed's former Vice Chairman about the nominee to be the Fed's next Chairman https://t.co/JqAnwgDYts NEW ODD LOTS: It's Rich Clarida on Kevin Warsh @tracyalloway and I talk to the Fed's former Vice Chairman about the nominee to be the Fed's next Chairman https://t.co/JqAnwgDYts" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019745539634442461) 2026-02-06T12:10Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "I do hope Warshs campaign (words Clarida used) to get the nomination was mostly that. Warsh has said some caustic unfair things about the people at the Fed whose help and goodwill he will need soon. He deserves Powell staying on" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019747194480316879) 2026-02-06T12:17Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "If I had to guess and its only a guess Powell stays until Supreme Court finds in favor of Lisa Cook" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019747738775093636) 2026-02-06T12:19Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "@ArunCherian12 Not spite. Its to protect the institution from White Houses interference" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019748970713469057) 2026-02-06T12:24Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements "@LPoPNH The White House case is weak" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019762113632244187) 2026-02-06T13:16Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "@soumitrashukla9 Yes he does" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019766940047126615) 2026-02-06T13:35Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "macromom made an appearance on Bloomberg Radio this morning . 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019768065257279904) 2026-02-06T13:40Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "@JSchwarz91 I suspect it will take a year or more for her case to finish. Supreme Court is likely to push it back to the lower courts this summer and then it will come beg to them later. But Supreme Court could finish it all at once with their ruling this summer" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019768852939251993) 2026-02-06T13:43Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "@Aesop_NPV Then it will be an easy questions for him" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019877198816014442) 2026-02-06T20:53Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "@PlaybhaiKhardi Clarida said he largely agreed with Bill Dudleys piece on Warsh in which Bill questions Kevins understanding of the balance sheet. Thats Kevins signature item" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020113358595207650) 2026-02-07T12:32Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements "@TimDuy Im not so sure" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020191497023549780) 2026-02-07T17:42Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020196719426724350) 2026-02-07T18:03Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "Its bizarre to me that most of academic money/macro is so chill over Warsh. Honestly he was my least fav of the four finalists. Again I hope to be wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020209896894132682) 2026-02-07T18:55Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "No one should die on the hill for dots but a Fed that backtracks on daylight would be a big red flag" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020214345238552826) 2026-02-07T19:13Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "Btw my go to book on the Fed in this moment is in my laptop book stand for interviews" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020275200190038371) 2026-02-07T23:15Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "- Myth of Independence: Binder and Spindel - 21st Century Monetary Policy: Bernanke - In Fed We Trust: Wessel - Alan Greenspan: Mallaby - A Monetary History: Friedman and Schwartz (Soooooo many more to recommend.) @Claudia_Sahm can you give a top [--] for someone getting into monetary policy @Claudia_Sahm can you give a top [--] for someone getting into monetary policy" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020297565191958933) 2026-02-08T00:44Z 81.8K followers, 16.2K engagements "To be clear those are ones that meant a lot to me . which reflects my journey. I started at the Fed in [----] and made myself read Greenspan's memoir to figure out what was still wafting through the building. (Mallaby is a better much writer so that's the rec). More recent books Irwin Appelbaum Hilsenrath Smialek Timiraos could be be better starting for others. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020301559033180442 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020301559033180442" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020301559033180442) 2026-02-08T01:00Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements "@BanilowMary Whats your list" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020327634115391850) 2026-02-08T02:43Z 79.6K followers, [---] engagements "Several people pointed out to me last week that Im in the X-algo dungeon. I suspect its due to me linking to my Substack. Links are disfavored on here but Substack especially" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020471295805182269) 2026-02-08T12:14Z 81.8K followers, 11.2K engagements "@barryknapp I agree its an omission not to be on my shelf. My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic. https://t.co/MLmrjVIWIg My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic. https://t.co/MLmrjVIWIg" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020484077648781644) 2026-02-08T13:05Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements "Maybe instead of it being about [--] percent growth maybe we actually get to something thats closer to [--] percent. But this is not five or seven. And honestly for people to feel better about the economy he needs numbers like that said Claudia Sahm https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/08/economic-boom-2026-elections/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/08/economic-boom-2026-elections/" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020587122953224261) 2026-02-08T19:54Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements "175 basis points in cuts since September [----] in response to labor market weakness. That's not ignoring. Lots of Fed speeches coming up. Watch for a dovish pivot in the weeks ahead. They ignored the Main Street recession for [--] years (that was because of their policy) but now that white collar job losses are starting they will get more concerned about the labor market. Lots of Fed speeches coming up. Watch for a dovish pivot in the weeks ahead. They ignored the Main Street recession for [--] years (that was because of their policy) but now that white collar job losses are starting they will get" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020877387110474134) 2026-02-09T15:08Z 81.8K followers, 14.6K engagements ""Thus the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned move on to another candidate or risk a replay of the 1930s or the 1970s."" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020927500583420143) 2026-02-09T18:27Z 81.8K followers, 10.6K engagements "Sure why not. TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HES CAPABLE OF TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HES CAPABLE OF" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020984655055589723) 2026-02-09T22:14Z 81.8K followers, 32.8K engagements "@KevRGordon This is a very unusual cycle. Could be that pandemic was not really a recession in typical sense and/or this is what a soft landing looks like " [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021283109946171593) 2026-02-10T18:00Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements "I know @jonstewart is getting dragged by many economists now. (Can't believe it's made me pro-Dick Thaler.) Even so I deeply appreciate his platforming counter voices. I got to push back on Jamie Dimon and Larry Summers in [----] on his podcast. It meant so much. Thanks Jon. hey hey hey look who got to talk with Jon Stewart https://t.co/cWBKmpRKN9 hey hey hey look who got to talk with Jon Stewart https://t.co/cWBKmpRKN9" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021702607773774164) 2026-02-11T21:47Z 81.8K followers, 14.3K engagements "Also I very much dislike criticism of people who don't have PhDs in economics as not economists. I would follow Jay Powell over a cliff and not give Peter Navarro the time of day so don't tell me about your PhD" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021703812403060757) 2026-02-11T21:52Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements "I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.)" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018101518126162177) 2026-02-01T23:17Z 81.9K followers, 143.1K engagements "@TotemMacro Every [--] to [--] weeks the Fed must decide what the federal funds rate should be. How should they decide Warsh is criticizing the Fed for using all of the things in the list. Humility is important but a decisionmaker must make a decision" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018449005471207908) 2026-02-02T22:18Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "my Google Alerts are fun today. Praise From Saylor And Dalio Criticism From Ex-Fed Economist" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018459143401828505) 2026-02-02T22:58Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "The Epstein files are an x-ray of the global elite. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736i=1000749063344 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736i=1000749063344" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021196915589951685) 2026-02-10T12:17Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "@gxselby The Fed is well aware of these likely revisions" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021293740803944683) 2026-02-10T18:42Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "@World_Data_A No the Bureau of Labor Statistics an independent agency" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021294075295473866) 2026-02-10T18:43Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "@rinsana @gxselby I don't think the latest number matters all that much though the birth-death model update could slice into it. I like Goldman's forecast of 45k for January. I expect unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021325723076644968) 2026-02-10T20:49Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements "@brix_farm Theres no set number. We figure it out from the unemployment rate. Yes its likely to go lower this year" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021361907337396441) 2026-02-10T23:13Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "But as I said in my post beware of politics If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth yet without being in a recession. The data argue against simple stories especially partisan ones. The low-hire low-fire labor market paired with solidly expanding economic activity is unusual and raises tough questions" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021367099885604875) 2026-02-10T23:34Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "And Im ride or die for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Large revisions are not a sign of mistakes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They reflect genuine changes in the labor market that are difficult to measure in real time" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021397232524869827) 2026-02-11T01:33Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "@hpkingiii No inflation adjusted GDP is growing at a solid pace. Its a jobless expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021529852743200876) 2026-02-11T10:20Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements "@sue_davison3 Its not from the administration. The BLS is an independent agency" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021610194648592703) 2026-02-11T15:40Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements "@username2456799 Actually no. The [--] basis point cut coincided with the Sahm rule triggering in the summer of [----]. With today's downward revisions to payrolls that looks even smarter. The unemployment rate has stabilized now" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021684288794591654) 2026-02-11T20:34Z 81.9K followers, [--] engagements "@fizxphrique Antoni's nomination was pulled. The acting director is a career civil servant" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021699774521425974) 2026-02-11T21:36Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements "@joehickory2 @jonstewart The Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate. It did not revise today" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021719773495607612) 2026-02-11T22:55Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements ""The unemployment rate remains a critical indicator of labor market conditions and will not be revised in the January report. I expect it to hold steady at 4.4% in January. The unemployment rate has been rising graduallyby nearly one percentage point over the past three years. Labor demand has not kept pace with labor supply: the unemployment rate is rising but at a much slower rate than the deceleration in job creation." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021566910215676288 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021566910215676288" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021566910215676288) 2026-02-11T12:48Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Yes as noted it will be CPI Friday. Whee. Two big releases in one week is hard" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021723397248422144) 2026-02-11T23:09Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Made @NewsHour with this observation on last year's job growth. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/revised-economic-numbers-inject-uncertainty-into-jobs-market Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative to total jobs of [---] million. Such a low year-over-year change in jobs is very rare outside of a recession. We are not in a recession making it even more notable. https://t.co/lethtOpX83 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/revised-economic-numbers-inject-uncertainty-into-jobs-market Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021951979266670812) 2026-02-12T14:18Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "@BostonFed My gut is that core goods inflation could be the surprise heat this year reflecting more of a tariff pass through. I would take the over on consensus but I do not have strong convictions. The CPI data have been disrupted and are noisier than usual" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022075211332603916) 2026-02-12T22:27Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.) Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the inflation late last year. No monthly inflation estimates in https://t.co/VYS8vVA0mm Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022286962086863245) 2026-02-13T12:29Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Using the 2-Year Treasury to set the federal funds rate is neither workable nor desirable as a mechanical rule. Here are a few concerns: Circularity. The 2-year embeds expectations about what the Fed will do. If the Fed ties its policy rate mechanically to it this creates feedback loops and potential instability. Mandate. Congress charged the Fed with pursuing stable prices and maximum employment. It is unclear how the Fed could justify fully outsourcing that responsibility to marketsor who would be held accountable when real-world outcomes fall short. Scope. The 2-year reflects more than" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018763485111607795) 2026-02-03T19:08Z 82K followers, 73.6K engagements "Question for Kevin Warshs confirmation hearing. Thats a really interesting overview what has changed that recessions in the US became less frequent and less severe https://t.co/HumDXTEG1l Thats a really interesting overview what has changed that recessions in the US became less frequent and less severe https://t.co/HumDXTEG1l" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2019568635845448003) 2026-02-06T00:27Z 82K followers, 39.8K engagements ""Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-with-no-jobsbut-no-recession https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-with-no-jobsbut-no-recession" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021354308005204101) 2026-02-10T22:43Z 82K followers, 16.3K engagements "I will be on Bloomberg Radio/YouTube at **8:25 am** with @tomkeene and @ptsweeney to talk about the jobs numbers. #JobDay https://www.youtube.com/watchv=f39oHo6vFLg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=f39oHo6vFLg" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021566299646882232) 2026-02-11T12:45Z 82K followers, 12.9K engagements "WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021273952706810187) 2026-02-10T17:23Z 82K followers, 627.8K engagements "My preview: "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession."" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021566671434207564) 2026-02-11T12:47Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative to total jobs of [---] million. Such a low year-over-year change in jobs is very rare outside of a recession. We are not in a recession making it even more notable" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021596873014829480) 2026-02-11T14:47Z 82K followers, 46K engagements ""The revisions are not a sign that the @BLS_gov is asleep at the wheel. We just have some major dynamics in the economy and it's really tough to measure in real time. We've got better data today and that's a great starting point for understanding where we are going" #JobsDay https://youtu.be/7yDDjbEZ_U8 https://youtu.be/7yDDjbEZ_U8" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021670399113846796) 2026-02-11T19:39Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "@BLS_gov Oh and that rule . With a tick down in the unemployment rate its well below the [---] trigger. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021673067898929421) 2026-02-11T19:49Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "RT @IsabellaMWeber: For years I've watched the affordability crisis deepen while governments refuse to stop profiteering. When democracies" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021697769019195627) 2026-02-11T21:28Z 82K followers, [--] engagements "Bummer with a Jobs Day Wednesday It's not Friday" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021720829617488215) 2026-02-11T22:59Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Harry Holzer gave a very good interview" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021956827404284284) 2026-02-12T14:37Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the inflation late last year. No monthly inflation estimates in Oct. or Nov. due to shutdown. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022070997659070518 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022070997659070518" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022070997659070518) 2026-02-12T22:11Z 82K followers, 39K engagements "@bernstein_brian @BostonFed The typical bettor there probably puts more weight on Truflation than I do" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022095570345873718) 2026-02-12T23:48Z 82K followers, [--] engagements "Time to sift through all the details but today's CPI on first look was encouraging. Along with jobs data this week lived up to cautious optimism for [----]. (Also very good news today is the possible rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs.)" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022308188326859190) 2026-02-13T13:53Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "from vibecession to gambling everywhere (hello Superbowl ads) . you should be reading @kylascan. In today's newsletter I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy https://t.co/6nWGYWg6mR In today's newsletter I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy https://t.co/6nWGYWg6mR" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2020646611484029239) 2026-02-08T23:51Z 82K followers, 22K engagements "The swing in immigration -- restrictions began in summer of [----] and intensified in [----] -- is almost certainly behind much (not all) of the slowing" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021276352788275690) 2026-02-10T17:33Z 82K followers, 22.5K engagements "Even so the unemployment rate has been rising gradually almost [--] percentage point over the past three years. Demand for workers is not keeping up with supply even with the much lower immigration" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021279407021732158) 2026-02-10T17:45Z 82K followers, 17.8K engagements "@siriuslybs @WhiteHouse White House doesnt control the numbers. Its the Bureau of Labor Statistics" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021587206301729017) 2026-02-11T14:08Z 82K followers, [--] engagements "The labor market does not strike me as a having a recession dynamic. though you'd be hard pressed to find that much red on payrolls outside of recession. That gradual rise in the unemployment is also unprecedented. So much to think about" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021280817633177900) 2026-02-10T17:51Z 82K followers, 16.2K engagements "Taking the under. *TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD *TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021366670061703333) 2026-02-10T23:32Z 82K followers, 24.8K engagements "If tomorrow kicks off policies that can pull us out of low hire labor market Im all for it. But it will require a reality check" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021367611385135481) 2026-02-10T23:36Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Link to my post. (Its slow to load). "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://t.co/vKP4FOYit5 "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://t.co/vKP4FOYit5" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021368112642490736) 2026-02-10T23:38Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "PSA: I will have zero tolerance for anyone talking about immigrants or government workers tomorrow in derogatory terms. ❤" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021385528504123819) 2026-02-11T00:47Z 82K followers, 12.9K engagements "Good news in January but the downward revisions are huge. More than a million fewer jobs than previously estimated by the end of [----]. And four months last year with outright declines in payrolls. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021584612044968274) 2026-02-11T13:58Z 82K followers, 256.8K engagements "@JoeGKushner We have the best stats agencies in the world. No data are perfect but these are high quality and independent of the White House" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021608288761135318) 2026-02-11T15:32Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "RT @Brendan_Duke: Wow. CBO estimates that U.S. consumers bear [--] PERCENT OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS. Basically foreign firms bear 5% of them" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021613268452737400) 2026-02-11T15:52Z 82K followers, [---] engagements "RT @JedKolko: This is so important. Private sector data face many of the same challenges that official statistics face but are typically" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021719339167023541) 2026-02-11T22:53Z 82K followers, [--] engagements "@BostonFed Do not get too hung up on one month. It's the broad trends that matter most. No tariffs are not everything but they have stood in the way of overall disinflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022080735595868411) 2026-02-12T22:49Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left) we lost [---] million jobs in January [----] but that was a smaller loss than a typical January . so we got a good print seasonally adjusted increase of [------] (right). @Claudia_Sahm Do you really think all those jobs were created in January with all the bad weather and the holidays From my time in corporate America nobody is interviewing and putting through hires in December. @Claudia_Sahm Do you really think all those jobs were created in January with all the bad weather and the holidays From my time" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022278747894816888) 2026-02-13T11:56Z 82K followers, [----] engagements "In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be a measure success My favorite Warsh speech: "Challenging the Groupthink of the Guild" which I saw Kevin give in [----] in DC. Prescient in many ways. It was Fed Groupthink that brought us Team Transitory & slow response to 2020s inflation. Challenging that kind of Groupthink is needed at the Fed. https://t.co/84Vm7HJQgm My favorite Warsh speech: "Challenging the Groupthink of the Guild" which I saw Kevin" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2018419554070704565) 2026-02-02T20:21Z 82K followers, 230.4K engagements "Updated my chart. Orange line is data published today. You can see the news today was the relatively upbeat January. My forecast of revisions (dashed blue) was fairly accurate. Where did I learn to forecast The Fed. The news today at the Fed was January--adding to signs of stabilization. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600490056794521 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600490056794521" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2021600490056794521) 2026-02-11T15:01Z 82K followers, 65K engagements "There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data not the CPI not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful to economic discussions. Perfectly manipulated CPI print by the Department of BS. Not too hot to annoy the Fed hawks. Not too cold to suggest AI deflationary fears accelerating. Under the hood supercore month on month up 0.59%. Typically happens in January but still quite concerning Perfectly manipulated CPI print by the Department of BS. Not too hot to" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/2022310043572461599) 2026-02-13T14:01Z 82K followers, 21.9K engagements "Ask people to rate the economy and its bad. Ask them about their own income wages spending wealth etc even after inflation and its good. Perceptions matter; reality does too. Roughly *67%* of voters rated the economy as "not so good/poor" per Washington Post exit polls A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market booming stocks much lower inflation growing GDP But widespread voter dissatisfaction w/ the economy been clear for years Roughly *67%* of voters rated the economy as "not so good/poor" per Washington Post exit polls A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market booming stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854101780012908561) 2024-11-06T10:01Z 72.9K followers, 94K engagements "I remain optimistic. The United States has much success to build on extending the boost to productivity growth in recent years would be first order of importance and also challenging" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854105405716156546) 2024-11-06T10:15Z 73K followers, [----] engagements "@betterltthannvr Its what people think but if you ask them about the objective aspects of their financial well being like income wages jobs wealth all after inflation most are better off. The narrative got so lodged on inflation that it signal jammed the surveys" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854108119124594857) 2024-11-06T10:26Z 73K followers, [---] engagements "The big lesson is not that people hate inflation. Duh we knew that already. The lesson is that in our current info environment (which Trump is much better at) bad news looms very large. Obama era levels of unemployment would have been punished as much if not more. (Of course there are also lessons about how to prevent and fight inflation. It was bad. The job-full recovery was very good.)" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854110404714041687) 2024-11-06T10:35Z 73.1K followers, [----] engagements "Unemployment affects everyone. Its a sign of how strong or weak the labor market is. When unemployment is low as was the case in recent years wage growth is high (even higher than inflation) more job opportunities exist and employers are more accommodating. Full employment economy is especially good at the bottom. @Donnymack666 @Claudia_Sahm I was thinking something similar. The last time inflation was an issue in America was the early 80s. And inflation affects everybody while unemployment does not. I guess the lesson is unemployment is the trade off Americans prefer when it comes to dealing" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854143706049486958) 2024-11-06T12:48Z 73K followers, 28.2K engagements "Counterfactuals are hard but I pity the politician who decides a recession on their watch is better than avoiding inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854145375784825085) 2024-11-06T12:54Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "No we are not in a recession. Nor is one imminent. @Claudia_Sahm Let me guess were in a recession now that Trump won 🤡 @Claudia_Sahm Let me guess were in a recession now that Trump won 🤡" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854172559148822836) 2024-11-06T14:42Z 72.9K followers, 24.6K engagements "@LiquidInvesting You are incorrect on this last point about revisions. Also growth is well beyond government spending" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854173715782660499) 2024-11-06T14:47Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Truth_n_facts1 Incumbents would still have been punished. Same in our peer countries" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854236971939336243) 2024-11-06T18:58Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements "@PointsNorth_Cap God bless you" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854614027315691865) 2024-11-07T19:56Z 73K followers, [--] engagements "As Powell carefully explained a new fiscal policy goes into the forecast *as soon as* its likely. Until a reasonably clear formulation is likely its possible variants are in risk scenarios. And the moment its possible a ton of staff time goes into studying its effects. I know. I became an expert of fiscal relief as a Fed economist. Would you agree that if a govt intends to add trillions of debt the Fed should indicate ex ante such action could impact the conduct of monetary policy & how (even if uncertain) rather than just putting the outcome ex post in its models https://t.co/whOyNl9vB0" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854615538279887164) 2024-11-07T20:02Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "Jay does such a good job" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854618080208449894) 2024-11-07T20:13Z 72.9K followers, 16.7K engagements "@_SteadyTurtle__ Yup. 🐐" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854620521339425125) 2024-11-07T20:22Z 73K followers, [---] engagements "What do people really hate Bad things" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854836295102562780) 2024-11-08T10:40Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "I am near certain (common sense + historical experience + research) that tables turned with a recession but low inflation the electoral loss would have been worse. Higher price tags are a hardship for some. Smaller paychecks are a disaster for most. @Claudia_Sahm They seemingly hate inflation much more than high unemployment / recession @Claudia_Sahm They seemingly hate inflation much more than high unemployment / recession" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854838992157483396) 2024-11-08T10:50Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "accused of being pro austerity. Ive seen it all on here" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854850751845093676) 2024-11-08T11:37Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Illiquid_Alpha Nah" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854863290184196600) 2024-11-08T12:27Z 73K followers, [--] engagements "@rint1ntin The last stimulus package was essential to avoiding the recession in bringing down inflation but it could have been smaller more targeted" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854863650395173196) 2024-11-08T12:28Z 72.9K followers, [--] engagements "What is Kyla's 'secret weapon' . in addition to being brilliant . she talks to people as a person about economics. That's actually a radical approach" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854895556113387901) 2024-11-08T14:35Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "If you have a central bank that does what the president wants instead of what the economy needs then we can end up with high inflation high unemployment and financial instability Sahm said. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-trump-remove-trump-influence-interest-rates/storyid=115636961 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-trump-remove-trump-influence-interest-rates/storyid=115636961" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1854978723935608898) 2024-11-08T20:06Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "Im not because its not true. People want low unemployment *and* low inflation. (Also the Phillips curve trade off is not stable.) Economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower recovery with much higher unemployment as long as prices had been stable. Economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower recovery with much higher unemployment as long as prices had been stable" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855045880690168018) 2024-11-09T00:32Z 72.9K followers, 60.7K engagements "@_Capitaltryst_ A high unemployment rate affects all workers via smaller paychecks and fewer job opportunities. A bad paycheck is a great hardship" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855058704338419793) 2024-11-09T01:23Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements "watching a @DanaFarber online patient forum for inflammatory breast cancer today. I feel rather unlucky to be in the audience (IBC is only [--] to 3% of breast cancer) and over the moon lucky to be getting treatment there" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855297643003494818) 2024-11-09T17:13Z 72.8K followers, [----] engagements "@ChuckGoat1 A crappy labor market hurts all workers. A high unemployment rate is a symptom of a crappy labor market" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855302974756565410) 2024-11-09T17:34Z 72.8K followers, [--] engagements "Nah. Always listen to @LHSummers. (On Biden's [----] $1.9T stimulus program that created inflation and doomed Harris.) https://t.co/yjDewvyjYL Always listen to @LHSummers. (On Biden's [----] $1.9T stimulus program that created inflation and doomed Harris.) https://t.co/yjDewvyjYL" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855425143939416319) 2024-11-10T01:40Z 72.9K followers, 20.1K engagements "@BIGfulla3 Because of the strong labor market this time low wage workers were the first to have their wages outpace inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855538956621783424) 2024-11-10T09:12Z 72.9K followers, [--] engagements "@joehickory2 It missed this time. I dont see an imminent recession" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1855773210379247817) 2024-11-11T00:43Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements "The reckoning with inflation. Many are tying the Democrat losses in the election to high inflation in recent years. There's some truth to that but it's complicated and it's crucial to take the right lessons. My new 200th Sub-st@ck post: http://stayathomemacro.com/p/the-reckoning-with-inflation http://stayathomemacro.com/p/the-reckoning-with-inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856067231081504801) 2024-11-11T20:11Z 72.1K followers, 46K engagements "Im not taking part in the reckoning because its not true. People want low unemployment and low inflation. The real lesson is that leaving inflation to the Fed alone was not good enough. Also the simple Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment isnot a thing andleaning on it would have led to worse outcomes in peoples lives and at the ballot box" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856068725469814999) 2024-11-11T20:17Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements "Better outcomes on inflation require better tools. Inflation loomed large in recent electionsin the US and worldwide. The right lesson is to find better tools to prevent and fight inflation not to throw in the towel on unemployment. It is not easy but not impossible" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856073094621970640) 2024-11-11T20:34Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "I have written *many* times on my Sub-st@ack about how monetary policy was insufficient and how standard macro tools like the Phillips curve are dangerous. Inflation is bad and we must do better" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856075029575827876) 2024-11-11T20:42Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "The reckoning is global. Inflation loomed large in all recent elections. As the chart shows every incumbent party facing an election in [----] lost vote shares. The fall in the vote share for Democrats (red dot) was smaller than that for other incumbent parties. Recall that overall economic outcomes have been the best in the US. Other countries experienced high inflation but the US experienced high growth and low unemployment. Even so an election loss is a loss" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856077425798517096) 2024-11-11T20:51Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "The anti-incumbent pattern makes sense. Inflation is a universal hardship and the lack of tools to fight it is too. Monetary policy is the worldwide go-to for inflation. The US is not alone in its need for a reckoning" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856077559341166742) 2024-11-11T20:52Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "The story matters. High inflation was a problem reaching levels not seen in decades. Inflation is close to normal now but the higher prices still loom large. In contrast the labor market has been the success story of the recoverygetting millions back to work quickly supporting large wage gains especially among low-wage workers and creating millions of new jobs. Those successes are crucial to countering the hardship of higher prices but the successes did not loom as large in the public mind. Partly it is psychology. Partly it is storytelling" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856078160871428169) 2024-11-11T20:54Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements "@Masttrucker The Fed is not the problem" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856084648767504781) 2024-11-11T21:20Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements "To be clear its not all in our heads. Inflation caused real hardship but inflation alone is not the economy. The anger is real. @byHeatherLong summed it up well. Its a complex mix of what happened and how we processed it: https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1855637520899359073 [--] things can both be true: 1) Americans didn't hear enough about the good economic news (low unemployment inflation back down strong growth etc) or the fact that the US economy was doing so much better than rest of world. 2) The inflation shock was worse than anything people https://t.co/ijqEc1uZtY" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856086222289911839) 2024-11-11T21:26Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "@byHeatherLong In closing. It is time for a reckoning among economists. But the reckoningone of manyis that we need more tools to fight and prevent inflation than the Fed alone. We can do better. The voters told us we must do better" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856096849222086680) 2024-11-11T22:09Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Masttrucker Unlikely to have spared us the supply driven inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856115494824079482) 2024-11-11T23:23Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements "Yes you are missing something. While big fiscal relief and monetary easing during the first year of the pandemic likely caused some inflation the benefits in the labor market recovery were substantial and we would have had high inflation anyway. @Claudia_Sahm @byHeatherLong are you not responsible for fuelling inflation by pump priming fiscal when monetary policy was cut near zero with QE Or am I missing something @Claudia_Sahm @byHeatherLong are you not responsible for fuelling inflation by pump priming fiscal when monetary policy was cut near zero with QE Or am I missing something" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856282006738354662) 2024-11-12T10:24Z 71.1K followers, 10.6K engagements "Puffi and I are now over at 🦋" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856284844340175247) 2024-11-12T10:36Z 72.5K followers, [----] engagements "What could possibly go wrong https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/elon-musk-endorses-trump-intervene-federal-reserve.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/elon-musk-endorses-trump-intervene-federal-reserve.html" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856323888189227119) 2024-11-12T13:11Z 72.1K followers, 24.6K engagements "Ill be on @YahooFinance this morning at [---] am to talk about the CPI and the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856680830501900531) 2024-11-13T12:49Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "We do not have an inflation problem now; we have a housing problem and that's been true for over a year. "The index for shelter rose 0.4% in October accounting for over half of" the inflation measured by @BLS_gov https://t.co/b2SvU0wwiK "The index for shelter rose 0.4% in October accounting for over half of" the inflation measured by @BLS_gov https://t.co/b2SvU0wwiK" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856696135030632606) 2024-11-13T13:50Z 72K followers, 151.3K engagements "@MayankSeksaria Of course its inflation. Being specific about the problem is a good step toward solving it" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856701147936960880) 2024-11-13T14:10Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements "On @CNBC at [---] pm today rounding out a pretty okay CPI Day" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856804367846051940) 2024-11-13T21:00Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856837720175174104) 2024-11-13T23:13Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "@orntwo Nope. Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://t.co/n4B7CRPLww https://t.co/g8UbYSMPpD Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://t.co/n4B7CRPLww https://t.co/g8UbYSMPpD" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1856851879814209740) 2024-11-14T00:09Z 71.9K followers, [---] engagements "No convincing evidence of nodal or distant metastasis. Very good news from my PET scan this week. It overruled a suspicious looking MRI. Im not stage [--] and I get to stay in the clinical trial. Huge relief" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1857168436717088922) 2024-11-14T21:07Z 72K followers, 27.1K engagements "100% agree with Peter Orszag that the pandemic not the Rescue Plan was the root cause of the inflation though fiscal certainly contributed. (I put the fiscal weight somewhat higher than this piece.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/14/inflation-american-rescue-plan-covid/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/14/inflation-american-rescue-plan-covid/" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1858230115890545115) 2024-11-17T19:25Z 72K followers, 10.5K engagements "The gamble of the American Rescue Plan paid off. There was the first job-full recovery in decades and families' spending rose from top to bottom even after inflation. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/a-better-way-of-understanding-the-u-s-consumer-decomposing-retail-spending-by-household-income-20241011.html President Biden hadnt even been inaugurated when he and his senior advisers made a monumental gamble in January [----] that would reverberate through his presidency https://t.co/fSESaTAhu5 https://t.co/fSESaTAhu5" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1858489647648612845) 2024-11-18T12:37Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements "Genuinely interested in the "small dollar" ways to "fix" our economic data reporting . Also what does fix even mean here I think @howardlutnick to Commerce is a good move. He is uniquely qualified to fix something that does not cost a lot of money but desperately needs fixing: the reporting of economic data. The Commerce Department oversees all the statistical agencies including the Census and I think @howardlutnick to Commerce is a good move. He is uniquely qualified to fix something that does not cost a lot of money but desperately needs fixing: the reporting of economic data. The Commerce" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1859584227383062807) 2024-11-21T13:06Z 72K followers, 26.6K engagements "2) Federal stats agencies have been actively using more private sector and admin data. The CPI had several changes along those lines in recent years like with auto prices. BUT it is a painstaking effort. Private sector series like Truthflation and Billion Prices have very short time series and you need official stats to create representativeness" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1859588599567564928) 2024-11-21T13:24Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements "More examples in the volume. By the rhetoric you would think our stats agencies are trash. Actually they are world-class and constantly innovating. But I look forward to the improvements. Always room to improve https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/big-data-twenty-first-century-economic-statistics https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/big-data-twenty-first-century-economic-statistics" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1859590797567340922) 2024-11-21T13:32Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements "Fascinating. Convince people the economy is trash and they expect you to do something to help them. Some voters are hoping President-elect Donald Trump may send out another stimulus check. Experts say the likelihood of this is extremely slim. https://t.co/G6bW7wltLD Some voters are hoping President-elect Donald Trump may send out another stimulus check. Experts say the likelihood of this is extremely slim. https://t.co/G6bW7wltLD" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1859990076224360819) 2024-11-22T15:59Z 72K followers, 22.2K engagements "@Stanonstuff @blgrieb See the links in the piece" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860043135919038514) 2024-11-22T19:30Z 72K followers, [--] engagements "@JimWelshMacro My comment doesnt say that nor do I. Btw Im personally worse off financially. Back off" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860046041741164787) 2024-11-22T19:41Z 72K followers, [--] engagements "Rule of thumb: the Census is in the Constitution. Do your legal job well. Rule of thumb: the federal government shouldnt be in the business of buying Super Bowl ads. Rule of thumb: the federal government shouldnt be in the business of buying Super Bowl ads" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860781540445163719) 2024-11-24T20:24Z 72K followers, 93.4K engagements "There is so much good that outside the box thinking in the government could do but its being wasted on destructive simplistic thinking. DOGE is on track to be a wasted opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860781946579673512) 2024-11-24T20:26Z 72K followers, 12.6K engagements "@nhensle11 Another brilliant idea" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860782018314776848) 2024-11-24T20:26Z 72K followers, [----] engagements "@nhensle11 I agree accountability is important. Humphrey-Hawkins hearings are a key part of it. But I doubt people want a world without the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860786138446741577) 2024-11-24T20:42Z 72K followers, [--] engagements "@LPoPNH One thing that bothers me about DOGE is that its all about cutting resources or employees. Some efficiency would come from more resources. A MASSIVE overhaul of the the IT as one example would be huge" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1860786795258016215) 2024-11-24T20:45Z 72K followers, [---] engagements "My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way. The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years notes @claudia_sahm and the main goal for Trump and Powell should be to keep it that way https://t.co/cu6Lkab4SY The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years notes @claudia_sahm and the main goal for Trump and Powell should be to keep it that way" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1861017440953458814) 2024-11-25T12:01Z 71.9K followers, 12.3K engagements "Real GDP is on track to exceed its pre-pandemic trend for the second year. Typically the Fed might worry strong growth is a sign that the economy is in danger of overheating but not this time. Inflation fell. The extra growth largely reflects higher productivity and a faster-growing workforce" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1861018445120479238) 2024-11-25T12:05Z 71.9K followers, [----] engagements "Productivity is the 'holy grail' of economic prosperity. Small improvements really add up. So what's behind the recent gain and is it sustainable My piece talks about the surge in business applications since the pandemic and the fast pace of job changes earlier in the recovery" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1861019868453081547) 2024-11-25T12:11Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements "- 🧵 My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way. My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1861087154069201089) 2024-11-25T16:38Z 71.9K followers, [----] engagements "The bottom line of my new @opinion piece: If DOGE were really about making the federal government more efficient as its name suggests then it would promote the option of working from home. Instead it's been banned. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-17/doge-ban-on-wfh-will-reduce-government-efficiencysrnd=undefined&sref=YAR8Qcu4 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-17/doge-ban-on-wfh-will-reduce-government-efficiencysrnd=undefined&sref=YAR8Qcu4" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1912921411280085384) 2025-04-17T17:29Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements "@annap_2013 @philadelphiafed Congratulations We are all so fortunate to have you serve on the FOMC" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1912926938261316034) 2025-04-17T17:51Z 70.9K followers, [---] engagements "move fast and break things is broke" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1913410347098165614) 2025-04-19T01:52Z 70.9K followers, 15K engagements "help me out: what are the upsides for the President in threatening to fire Powell in public I dont have an issue with the criticisms and can see their upside. Its the firing that doesnt make sense to me" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1913710572584976689) 2025-04-19T21:45Z 70.9K followers, 31.9K engagements "(Im serious. Ive been taught Fed independence is sacrosanct so Im struggling to understand the logic.)" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1913711147485704578) 2025-04-19T21:47Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements "Goodness I agree with the WSJ editorial board today *and* Larry. It might be time to pack it up " [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1914485528533111058) 2025-04-22T01:04Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements "I also got an op ed on why recessions are bad. Strange times. PS I'm an optimist at heart even when my heart hurts" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1914485841931419724) 2025-04-22T01:06Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements "Narrator: a recession is not ok. Welker: Is it ok in the short term to have a recession Trump: Yeah. Everything is ok. https://t.co/vxFnmE9HtD Welker: Is it ok in the short term to have a recession Trump: Yeah. Everything is ok. https://t.co/vxFnmE9HtD" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1918489326330978690) 2025-05-03T02:14Z 71K followers, 14.5K engagements ""A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed. It must draw on an even wider range of data to avoid that pitfall. Soft data can be especially important on the forward-looking question of whether tariff-induced inflation will be persistent." #FedDay" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1920111047815389228) 2025-05-07T13:38Z 71K followers, [----] engagements "Tariffs are raising inflation expectations but will they reshape behavior and lead to persistent inflation I am a big fan of the Michigan Survey and asking people about expectations more generally but my @opinion piece today comes down as being *very* skeptical of the rise in longer-term inflation expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1929968406922703320) 2025-06-03T18:28Z 71K followers, 13K engagements "Skeptical #2 Consistent with confusion the outliers of very high inflation are no longer outliers. One in [--] respondents say inflation will average 15% or more in the next [--] to [--] years. Highest fraction ever" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1929969107664781510) 2025-06-03T18:31Z 71K followers, [----] engagements "There are reasons to be skeptical of the inflation expectations reported in the Michigan survey. But that doesnt necessarily mean the Fed should be more confident about other measures that show anchored expectations. We will have to watch this one grind out in the data" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1929970194291548192) 2025-06-03T18:35Z 71K followers, [----] engagements "Automatic stabilizers are fairly common such as progressive income taxes. (One more reason to dislike tariffs and One Big Beautiful Bill is they are regressive and weaken the stabilization.) Has any country ever experimented with an independent fiscal authority A central-bank-like entity shielded from the electoral cycle that could counter-cyclically cut and raise taxes Has any country ever experimented with an independent fiscal authority A central-bank-like entity shielded from the electoral cycle that could counter-cyclically cut and raise taxes" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1935127233099640961) 2025-06-18T00:07Z 71.1K followers, 11.3K engagements "Its over. For months people have been asking me whether I still trusted govt data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling. I cant say that anymore. For months people have been asking me whether I still trusted govt data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling. I cant say that anymore" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1951452723280486898) 2025-08-02T01:19Z 71.2K followers, 29.7K engagements "Pretending something youre not never ends well Feds not the Oracle no one is theyre there to call it as they see it free of politics. This seems a rather odd timing for a major new framework announcement from @federalreserve. If anything it seems the errors have been on the side of excessive transparency excessive forecasting. We have too many dot plots too many forecasts too much cacophony. My own view is This seems a rather odd timing for a major new framework announcement from @federalreserve. If anything it seems the errors have been on the side of excessive transparency excessive" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1956846067716108697) 2025-08-16T22:30Z 71.3K followers, [----] engagements "This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/trump-aims-to-win-majority-on-fed-board-with-attempt-to-oust-lisa-cooksrnd=homepage-americas&sref=YAR8Qcu4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/trump-aims-to-win-majority-on-fed-board-with-attempt-to-oust-lisa-cooksrnd=homepage-americas&sref=YAR8Qcu4" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1958559765996425632) 2025-08-21T16:00Z 71.3K followers, 51.3K engagements "Do not forget. Its about control of the Fed. This is a very dark day. This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://t.co/ePWshNTTFj This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://t.co/ePWshNTTFj" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1960136561514971291) 2025-08-26T00:25Z 71.3K followers, 38.5K engagements "hi macro peeps now is not the time to bring up all the times the Fed made a mistake in the past this moment is not about optimizing monetary policy its about independence" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1960849354849190180) 2025-08-27T23:38Z 71.3K followers, 13.7K engagements "🙃🙃🙃 The [----] mortgage crisis was largely caused by Mortgage Fraud. WE CANNOT HAVE [----] HAPPEN AGAIN The [----] mortgage crisis was largely caused by Mortgage Fraud. WE CANNOT HAVE [----] HAPPEN AGAIN" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1961235225008074767) 2025-08-29T01:11Z 71.3K followers, 16.4K engagements "Endorse. Betsy Duke Alan Blinder and @bhgreeley https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/planet-money/id290783428i=1000724100936 http://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/planet-money/id290783428i=1000724100936 http://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1961881474853900617) 2025-08-30T19:59Z 71.3K followers, [----] engagements "I have seen it all. The BLS caused the Global Financial Crisis in [----]. What The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC - they completely blew the jobs picture stayed pat and then had to scramble. Here we are again. The BLS data collection is too sterile and slow The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC - they completely blew the jobs picture stayed pat and then had to scramble. Here we are again. The BLS data collection is" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1964781632994627955) 2025-09-07T20:03Z 71.4K followers, 79.3K engagements "Its time for Pulte to go. The mortgage fraud claim against Lisa Cook is false per documents obtained by Reuters. Bill Pulte's accusation the sole pretext Trump used to fire her from the Fed was that she claimed two homes as primary residence. These docs show she did not. https://t.co/aZf0YR9JBN The mortgage fraud claim against Lisa Cook is false per documents obtained by Reuters. Bill Pulte's accusation the sole pretext Trump used to fire her from the Fed was that she claimed two homes as primary residence. These docs show she did not. https://t.co/aZf0YR9JBN" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1966631747006636491) 2025-09-12T22:35Z 71.4K followers, 126.2K engagements ""Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach." Powell last month in Jackson Hole speech. Ages ago" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1968355852865425868) 2025-09-17T16:46Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements "Trump threatened to fire Cook during the speech and did so the next week though courts kept her on so far. Today a current White House official voted on monetary policy. The wheels are coming off the data-driven independent Fed. Not completely off and maybe the Supreme Court steps in but it's surreal" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1968356075821838629) 2025-09-17T16:47Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements "I do not expect Powell to take on the President in the presser but it would be a critical time to remind everyone -- the White House Congress markets regular people -- why political control of interest rates is a bad idea" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1968356381532299269) 2025-09-17T16:48Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements "The reason to have technocrats in charge of rates is not that they always get it right but that they don't get it consistently wrong like politicians causing inflation. Technocrats follow the economic data and apply their expert judgment. They are not focused on winning the next election" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1968356663171125540) 2025-09-17T16:49Z 71.5K followers, [----] engagements "First Fed Governor tweeting. I will give props to that. Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members I felt it necessary to be meticulous and transparent. https://t.co/LKLM6wlZbS Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members I felt it necessary to be meticulous" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1970207549929467951) 2025-09-22T19:24Z 71.5K followers, 47.1K engagements ""0.5% annual CPI inflation. Good news" @t0nyyates reminds us we need a model to judge economic data https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/0-5-annual-cpi-inflation-good-news/ https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/0-5-annual-cpi-inflation-good-news/" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/554978798970863616) 2015-01-13T12:30Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements "the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished" http://t.co/SgZRWHYs03 interesting note from SF Fed on forecasting http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-projections-optimism-federal-reserve/ http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-projections-optimism-federal-reserve/" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/562419122433449984) 2015-02-03T01:15Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements "good @Noahpinion post: http://t.co/DDruO5x94f in response to @JohnHCochrane post: http://t.co/M7dJp3oi7C on a model of (oil) news shocks http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.jp/2015/03/arezki-ramey-and-sheng-on-news-shocks.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-case-where-rbc-works.html http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.jp/2015/03/arezki-ramey-and-sheng-on-news-shocks.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-case-where-rbc-works.html" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/579241965776211968) 2015-03-21T11:23Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements ""You overcame obstacles to make it here and more obstacles to complete your degree." Fed Chair Yellen https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/810929436199682048) 2016-12-19T19:26Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements "thought-provoking analysis . this result by credit score reminded me of debate over who caused the housing crisis https://x.com/pdacosta/status/837440668054204416 http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/ "High-credit-score individuals prioritized credit card debt over mortgage debt when choosing between the two." https://t.co/TqqE6txHNy https://t.co/Stpe2pk6Tg https://x.com/pdacosta/status/837440668054204416 http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/ "High-credit-score individuals prioritized credit card" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/837456910571929601) 2017-03-03T00:17Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements "note: credit scores are a ranking across individuals not an absolute metric of creditworthiness https://x.com/nicktimiraos/status/869335140539002880 https://www.clevelandfed.org//media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/economic%20commentary/2010/ec%20201016%20your%20credit%20score%20is%20a%20ranking%20not%20a%20score/ec%20201016%20revised%20your%20credit%20score%20is%20a%20ranking%20not%20a%20score%20pdf.pdfla=en What several years of conservative credit standards have wrought: Pristine credit scores https://t.co/OxASjZ3Dnh https://x.com/nicktimiraos/status/869335140539002880" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/869361121463070720) 2017-05-30T01:13Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements "going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many interesting papers on credit economic inclusion etc https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/916091160279638016) 2017-10-06T00:02Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements "conference slides and video are now posted for the FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium: it was a great research event do check out the work https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/916091160279638016 https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many interesting papers on credit economic inclusion etc https://t.co/sg1GrGrtYm https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/916091160279638016 https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many" [X Link](https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/933054437534420992) 2017-11-21T19:28Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Claudia_Sahm Claudia Sahm
Claudia Sahm posts on X about inflation, fed, in the, kevin warsh the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Month [---------] +336%
- [--] Months [---------] +1,951%
- [--] Year [---------] -35%
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- [--] Week [---] +170%
- [--] Month [---] +177%
- [--] Months [---] +1,182%
- [--] Year [---] -55%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance #2938 us election 2.04% countries 1.53% technology brands 1.02% stocks 0.51% celebrities 0.51% cryptocurrencies 0.51%
Social topic influence inflation #64, fed #92, in the 4.08%, kevin warsh #93, fomc 2.55%, white house #2175, tariffs #362, agencies 2.55%, federal reserve #22, data 1.53%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @claudiasahm @mcclellanosc @piptrain @lpopnh @opinion @joe_sap @moderatepete @alantonelson @capitianm @rinsana @fizxphrique @joehickory2 @bostonfed @yahoofinance @blsgov @byheatherlong @jimwelshmacro @_wealthformula @buckjoffrey @bernstein_brian
Top assets mentioned Gains (GAINS) Dogecoin (DOGE) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@AlanTonelson Unemployment rate is up percentage point (over past few years) from its historical lows. Low hiring is a problem even though paired with low firing"
X Link 2026-01-28T00:10Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements
""Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics: Brett Matsumoto the next chief has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015." Excellent choice https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-picks-veteran-staffer-to-head-bureau-of-labor-statistics-f728acdest=Sd3nW9&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-picks-veteran-staffer-to-head-bureau-of-labor-statistics-f728acdest=Sd3nW9&reflink=article_copyURL_share"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:22Z 73.8K followers, 35.3K engagements
"Hilarious. One day after announcing Kevin Warsh as his choice to run the Fed Trump joked during a speech on Saturday night that he would sue Warsh if Warsh doesnt lower rates. Warsh had been on the guest list of attendees at the elite Alfalfa Club dinner. https://t.co/SdyFZrq3dT One day after announcing Kevin Warsh as his choice to run the Fed Trump joked during a speech on Saturday night that he would sue Warsh if Warsh doesnt lower rates. Warsh had been on the guest list of attendees at the elite Alfalfa Club dinner. https://t.co/SdyFZrq3dT"
X Link 2026-02-01T12:49Z 73.8K followers, 29.1K engagements
"Link: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh"
X Link 2026-02-01T23:18Z 73.8K followers, 18.2K engagements
"Sometimes I wonder if Warsh even worked at the Fed. Warsh in 2016: "The economic brain trust at the Fed is a precious public resource. It ought not to be squandered by repeating outputs of broken models. The economic talent assembled should be aimed squarely at the toughest most consequential economic issues of our time for Warsh in 2016: "The economic brain trust at the Fed is a precious public resource. It ought not to be squandered by repeating outputs of broken models. The economic talent assembled should be aimed squarely at the toughest most consequential economic issues of our time for"
X Link 2026-02-02T19:24Z 73.7K followers, 16.6K engagements
"Skepticism is healthy. I was taught to be skeptical of all these things at the Fed as an economist. But we still used: data models forecasting and targets. Also Warsh really should listen to Bernanke here"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:49Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Was nice of them to share my piece. I tried hard to show not tell here I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.) https://t.co/y36tiypHEV I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.) https://t.co/y36tiypHEV"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:58Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@charles17187887 CPI-U is data. He's skeptical of that"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:48Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"It can be a bit hard to follow the conversations here so doing a thread to stitch together a back and forth with @McClellanOsc. Kicked off by my ask: "Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate" In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be a measure success In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:39Z 73.8K followers, 24K engagements
"@McClellanOsc I appreciate @McClellanOsc taking my question seriously. I sat down to write a piece yesterday evaluating the new regime Warsh wants at the Fed. After a lot of reading I could not find one. Tom at least gave me something to think about"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:02Z 73.8K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Public says different. https://news.gallup.com/poll/700241/americans-end-year-gloomy-mood.aspx Bessent Says Fed Lacks Accountability and Has Lost Public Trust https://t.co/ipfCyIbdSs via @NYTimes https://news.gallup.com/poll/700241/americans-end-year-gloomy-mood.aspx Bessent Says Fed Lacks Accountability and Has Lost Public Trust https://t.co/ipfCyIbdSs via @NYTimes"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:32Z 73.8K followers, 25K engagements
"Yes Brett Matsumoto has my full endorsement for BLS Commissioner. Hes a true subject matter expert and public servant. BLS must get more funding too Brett Matsumoto at the BLS is endorsed by @Claudia_Sahm Thats a huge plus and reassuring. Trumps previous pick EJ Antoni was MAGA through and through Brett Matsumoto at the BLS is endorsed by @Claudia_Sahm Thats a huge plus and reassuring. Trumps previous pick EJ Antoni was MAGA through and through"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:21Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@CapitianM No Powell has been a voice of soberness and humility throughout a very rough eight years. Hes earned that vote of confidence and more"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:37Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Shocked. Are female economists treated differently than male economists in academic seminars These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research. So they built a massive dataset of 2000+ economics seminars job talks and conference https://t.co/5AMj0v8Il9 Are female economists treated differently than male economists in academic seminars These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research. So they built a massive dataset of 2000+ economics seminars job talks and conference https://t.co/5AMj0v8Il9"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:39Z 73.7K followers, [----] engagements
"On a more positive note: the other one did a lot of work later to improve the seminar culture he also apologized. The fact that this study even exists is a sign of progress in economics"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:13Z 73.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@GeorgeSelgin I am happy to use the alternate chart and/or ignore the data before [----] (another suggestion I heard). I am not looking for or pushing a rave review of the Fed"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:40Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Good convo especially on inner workings of Fed and changing approaches across Chairs. Theres some criticism of Warsh here even if subtle in its framing. NEW ODD LOTS: It's Rich Clarida on Kevin Warsh @tracyalloway and I talk to the Fed's former Vice Chairman about the nominee to be the Fed's next Chairman https://t.co/JqAnwgDYts NEW ODD LOTS: It's Rich Clarida on Kevin Warsh @tracyalloway and I talk to the Fed's former Vice Chairman about the nominee to be the Fed's next Chairman https://t.co/JqAnwgDYts"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:10Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I do hope Warshs campaign (words Clarida used) to get the nomination was mostly that. Warsh has said some caustic unfair things about the people at the Fed whose help and goodwill he will need soon. He deserves Powell staying on"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:17Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"If I had to guess and its only a guess Powell stays until Supreme Court finds in favor of Lisa Cook"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:19Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@ArunCherian12 Not spite. Its to protect the institution from White Houses interference"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:24Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@LPoPNH The White House case is weak"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:16Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@soumitrashukla9 Yes he does"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:35Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"macromom made an appearance on Bloomberg Radio this morning . 😀"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:40Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@JSchwarz91 I suspect it will take a year or more for her case to finish. Supreme Court is likely to push it back to the lower courts this summer and then it will come beg to them later. But Supreme Court could finish it all at once with their ruling this summer"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:43Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@Aesop_NPV Then it will be an easy questions for him"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:53Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@PlaybhaiKhardi Clarida said he largely agreed with Bill Dudleys piece on Warsh in which Bill questions Kevins understanding of the balance sheet. Thats Kevins signature item"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:32Z 73.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@TimDuy Im not so sure"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:42Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:03Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Its bizarre to me that most of academic money/macro is so chill over Warsh. Honestly he was my least fav of the four finalists. Again I hope to be wrong"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:55Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"No one should die on the hill for dots but a Fed that backtracks on daylight would be a big red flag"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:13Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Btw my go to book on the Fed in this moment is in my laptop book stand for interviews"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:15Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"- Myth of Independence: Binder and Spindel - 21st Century Monetary Policy: Bernanke - In Fed We Trust: Wessel - Alan Greenspan: Mallaby - A Monetary History: Friedman and Schwartz (Soooooo many more to recommend.) @Claudia_Sahm can you give a top [--] for someone getting into monetary policy @Claudia_Sahm can you give a top [--] for someone getting into monetary policy"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:44Z 81.8K followers, 16.2K engagements
"To be clear those are ones that meant a lot to me . which reflects my journey. I started at the Fed in [----] and made myself read Greenspan's memoir to figure out what was still wafting through the building. (Mallaby is a better much writer so that's the rec). More recent books Irwin Appelbaum Hilsenrath Smialek Timiraos could be be better starting for others. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020301559033180442 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020301559033180442"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:00Z 73.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@BanilowMary Whats your list"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:43Z 79.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Several people pointed out to me last week that Im in the X-algo dungeon. I suspect its due to me linking to my Substack. Links are disfavored on here but Substack especially"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:14Z 81.8K followers, 11.2K engagements
"@barryknapp I agree its an omission not to be on my shelf. My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic. https://t.co/MLmrjVIWIg My monetary (left) and fiscal (right) sections are intentionally eclectic. https://t.co/MLmrjVIWIg"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:05Z 73.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Maybe instead of it being about [--] percent growth maybe we actually get to something thats closer to [--] percent. But this is not five or seven. And honestly for people to feel better about the economy he needs numbers like that said Claudia Sahm https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/08/economic-boom-2026-elections/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/08/economic-boom-2026-elections/"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:54Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements
"175 basis points in cuts since September [----] in response to labor market weakness. That's not ignoring. Lots of Fed speeches coming up. Watch for a dovish pivot in the weeks ahead. They ignored the Main Street recession for [--] years (that was because of their policy) but now that white collar job losses are starting they will get more concerned about the labor market. Lots of Fed speeches coming up. Watch for a dovish pivot in the weeks ahead. They ignored the Main Street recession for [--] years (that was because of their policy) but now that white collar job losses are starting they will get"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:08Z 81.8K followers, 14.6K engagements
""Thus the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned move on to another candidate or risk a replay of the 1930s or the 1970s.""
X Link 2026-02-09T18:27Z 81.8K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Sure why not. TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HES CAPABLE OF TRUMP: U.S. CAN GROW AT 15% IF WARSH DOES THE JOB HES CAPABLE OF"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:14Z 81.8K followers, 32.8K engagements
"@KevRGordon This is a very unusual cycle. Could be that pandemic was not really a recession in typical sense and/or this is what a soft landing looks like "
X Link 2026-02-10T18:00Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements
"I know @jonstewart is getting dragged by many economists now. (Can't believe it's made me pro-Dick Thaler.) Even so I deeply appreciate his platforming counter voices. I got to push back on Jamie Dimon and Larry Summers in [----] on his podcast. It meant so much. Thanks Jon. hey hey hey look who got to talk with Jon Stewart https://t.co/cWBKmpRKN9 hey hey hey look who got to talk with Jon Stewart https://t.co/cWBKmpRKN9"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:47Z 81.8K followers, 14.3K engagements
"Also I very much dislike criticism of people who don't have PhDs in economics as not economists. I would follow Jay Powell over a cliff and not give Peter Navarro the time of day so don't tell me about your PhD"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:52Z 81.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I have concerns about Kevin Warsh leading the Federal Reserve. Many have roots in his time at the Fed. My new piece uses the November [----] FOMC meeting as a lens into him as a potential Fed Chair. (link below.)"
X Link 2026-02-01T23:17Z 81.9K followers, 143.1K engagements
"@TotemMacro Every [--] to [--] weeks the Fed must decide what the federal funds rate should be. How should they decide Warsh is criticizing the Fed for using all of the things in the list. Humility is important but a decisionmaker must make a decision"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:18Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"my Google Alerts are fun today. Praise From Saylor And Dalio Criticism From Ex-Fed Economist"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:58Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The Epstein files are an x-ray of the global elite. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736i=1000749063344 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736i=1000749063344"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:17Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@gxselby The Fed is well aware of these likely revisions"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:42Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@World_Data_A No the Bureau of Labor Statistics an independent agency"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:43Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@rinsana @gxselby I don't think the latest number matters all that much though the birth-death model update could slice into it. I like Goldman's forecast of 45k for January. I expect unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:49Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@brix_farm Theres no set number. We figure it out from the unemployment rate. Yes its likely to go lower this year"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:13Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"But as I said in my post beware of politics If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth yet without being in a recession. The data argue against simple stories especially partisan ones. The low-hire low-fire labor market paired with solidly expanding economic activity is unusual and raises tough questions"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:34Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"And Im ride or die for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Large revisions are not a sign of mistakes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They reflect genuine changes in the labor market that are difficult to measure in real time"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:33Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@hpkingiii No inflation adjusted GDP is growing at a solid pace. Its a jobless expansion"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:20Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@sue_davison3 Its not from the administration. The BLS is an independent agency"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:40Z 81.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@username2456799 Actually no. The [--] basis point cut coincided with the Sahm rule triggering in the summer of [----]. With today's downward revisions to payrolls that looks even smarter. The unemployment rate has stabilized now"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:34Z 81.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@fizxphrique Antoni's nomination was pulled. The acting director is a career civil servant"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:36Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@joehickory2 @jonstewart The Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate. It did not revise today"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:55Z 81.9K followers, [---] engagements
""The unemployment rate remains a critical indicator of labor market conditions and will not be revised in the January report. I expect it to hold steady at 4.4% in January. The unemployment rate has been rising graduallyby nearly one percentage point over the past three years. Labor demand has not kept pace with labor supply: the unemployment rate is rising but at a much slower rate than the deceleration in job creation." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021566910215676288 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021566910215676288"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:48Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Yes as noted it will be CPI Friday. Whee. Two big releases in one week is hard"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:09Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Made @NewsHour with this observation on last year's job growth. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/revised-economic-numbers-inject-uncertainty-into-jobs-market Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative to total jobs of [---] million. Such a low year-over-year change in jobs is very rare outside of a recession. We are not in a recession making it even more notable. https://t.co/lethtOpX83 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/revised-economic-numbers-inject-uncertainty-into-jobs-market Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:18Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"@BostonFed My gut is that core goods inflation could be the surprise heat this year reflecting more of a tariff pass through. I would take the over on consensus but I do not have strong convictions. The CPI data have been disrupted and are noisier than usual"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:27Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.) Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup but we do not have a clear sense of the inflation late last year. No monthly inflation estimates in https://t.co/VYS8vVA0mm Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:29Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Using the 2-Year Treasury to set the federal funds rate is neither workable nor desirable as a mechanical rule. Here are a few concerns: Circularity. The 2-year embeds expectations about what the Fed will do. If the Fed ties its policy rate mechanically to it this creates feedback loops and potential instability. Mandate. Congress charged the Fed with pursuing stable prices and maximum employment. It is unclear how the Fed could justify fully outsourcing that responsibility to marketsor who would be held accountable when real-world outcomes fall short. Scope. The 2-year reflects more than"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:08Z 82K followers, 73.6K engagements
"Question for Kevin Warshs confirmation hearing. Thats a really interesting overview what has changed that recessions in the US became less frequent and less severe https://t.co/HumDXTEG1l Thats a really interesting overview what has changed that recessions in the US became less frequent and less severe https://t.co/HumDXTEG1l"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:27Z 82K followers, 39.8K engagements
""Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-with-no-jobsbut-no-recession https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-with-no-jobsbut-no-recession"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:43Z 82K followers, 16.3K engagements
"I will be on Bloomberg Radio/YouTube at 8:25 am with @tomkeene and @ptsweeney to talk about the jobs numbers. #JobDay https://www.youtube.com/watchv=f39oHo6vFLg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=f39oHo6vFLg"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:45Z 82K followers, 12.9K engagements
"WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:23Z 82K followers, 627.8K engagements
"My preview: "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession.""
X Link 2026-02-11T12:47Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Last year the US created [------] jobs on net. That's basically nothing relative to total jobs of [---] million. Such a low year-over-year change in jobs is very rare outside of a recession. We are not in a recession making it even more notable"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:47Z 82K followers, 46K engagements
""The revisions are not a sign that the @BLS_gov is asleep at the wheel. We just have some major dynamics in the economy and it's really tough to measure in real time. We've got better data today and that's a great starting point for understanding where we are going" #JobsDay https://youtu.be/7yDDjbEZ_U8 https://youtu.be/7yDDjbEZ_U8"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:39Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"@BLS_gov Oh and that rule . With a tick down in the unemployment rate its well below the [---] trigger. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:49Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @IsabellaMWeber: For years I've watched the affordability crisis deepen while governments refuse to stop profiteering. When democracies"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:28Z 82K followers, [--] engagements
"Bummer with a Jobs Day Wednesday It's not Friday"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:59Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Harry Holzer gave a very good interview"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:37Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup but we do not have a clear sense of the inflation late last year. No monthly inflation estimates in Oct. or Nov. due to shutdown. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022070997659070518 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022070997659070518"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:11Z 82K followers, 39K engagements
"@bernstein_brian @BostonFed The typical bettor there probably puts more weight on Truflation than I do"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:48Z 82K followers, [--] engagements
"Time to sift through all the details but today's CPI on first look was encouraging. Along with jobs data this week lived up to cautious optimism for [----]. (Also very good news today is the possible rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs.)"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:53Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"from vibecession to gambling everywhere (hello Superbowl ads) . you should be reading @kylascan. In today's newsletter I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy https://t.co/6nWGYWg6mR In today's newsletter I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy https://t.co/6nWGYWg6mR"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:51Z 82K followers, 22K engagements
"The swing in immigration -- restrictions began in summer of [----] and intensified in [----] -- is almost certainly behind much (not all) of the slowing"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:33Z 82K followers, 22.5K engagements
"Even so the unemployment rate has been rising gradually almost [--] percentage point over the past three years. Demand for workers is not keeping up with supply even with the much lower immigration"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:45Z 82K followers, 17.8K engagements
"@siriuslybs @WhiteHouse White House doesnt control the numbers. Its the Bureau of Labor Statistics"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:08Z 82K followers, [--] engagements
"The labor market does not strike me as a having a recession dynamic. though you'd be hard pressed to find that much red on payrolls outside of recession. That gradual rise in the unemployment is also unprecedented. So much to think about"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:51Z 82K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Taking the under. *TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD *TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:32Z 82K followers, 24.8K engagements
"If tomorrow kicks off policies that can pull us out of low hire labor market Im all for it. But it will require a reality check"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:36Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Link to my post. (Its slow to load). "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://t.co/vKP4FOYit5 "Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year even without a recession." More at the link: https://t.co/vKP4FOYit5"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:38Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"PSA: I will have zero tolerance for anyone talking about immigrants or government workers tomorrow in derogatory terms. ❤"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:47Z 82K followers, 12.9K engagements
"Good news in January but the downward revisions are huge. More than a million fewer jobs than previously estimated by the end of [----]. And four months last year with outright declines in payrolls. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:58Z 82K followers, 256.8K engagements
"@JoeGKushner We have the best stats agencies in the world. No data are perfect but these are high quality and independent of the White House"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:32Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @Brendan_Duke: Wow. CBO estimates that U.S. consumers bear [--] PERCENT OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS. Basically foreign firms bear 5% of them"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:52Z 82K followers, [---] engagements
"RT @JedKolko: This is so important. Private sector data face many of the same challenges that official statistics face but are typically"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:53Z 82K followers, [--] engagements
"@BostonFed Do not get too hung up on one month. It's the broad trends that matter most. No tariffs are not everything but they have stood in the way of overall disinflation"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:49Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left) we lost [---] million jobs in January [----] but that was a smaller loss than a typical January . so we got a good print seasonally adjusted increase of [------] (right). @Claudia_Sahm Do you really think all those jobs were created in January with all the bad weather and the holidays From my time in corporate America nobody is interviewing and putting through hires in December. @Claudia_Sahm Do you really think all those jobs were created in January with all the bad weather and the holidays From my time"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:56Z 82K followers, [----] engagements
"In this speech Kevin Warsh is: - Skeptical of data - Skeptical of models - Skeptical of forecasting - Skeptical of explicit targets Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate What would be a measure success My favorite Warsh speech: "Challenging the Groupthink of the Guild" which I saw Kevin give in [----] in DC. Prescient in many ways. It was Fed Groupthink that brought us Team Transitory & slow response to 2020s inflation. Challenging that kind of Groupthink is needed at the Fed. https://t.co/84Vm7HJQgm My favorite Warsh speech: "Challenging the Groupthink of the Guild" which I saw Kevin"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:21Z 82K followers, 230.4K engagements
"Updated my chart. Orange line is data published today. You can see the news today was the relatively upbeat January. My forecast of revisions (dashed blue) was fairly accurate. Where did I learn to forecast The Fed. The news today at the Fed was January--adding to signs of stabilization. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600490056794521 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600490056794521"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:01Z 82K followers, 65K engagements
"There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data not the CPI not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful to economic discussions. Perfectly manipulated CPI print by the Department of BS. Not too hot to annoy the Fed hawks. Not too cold to suggest AI deflationary fears accelerating. Under the hood supercore month on month up 0.59%. Typically happens in January but still quite concerning Perfectly manipulated CPI print by the Department of BS. Not too hot to"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:01Z 82K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Ask people to rate the economy and its bad. Ask them about their own income wages spending wealth etc even after inflation and its good. Perceptions matter; reality does too. Roughly 67% of voters rated the economy as "not so good/poor" per Washington Post exit polls A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market booming stocks much lower inflation growing GDP But widespread voter dissatisfaction w/ the economy been clear for years Roughly 67% of voters rated the economy as "not so good/poor" per Washington Post exit polls A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market booming stocks"
X Link 2024-11-06T10:01Z 72.9K followers, 94K engagements
"I remain optimistic. The United States has much success to build on extending the boost to productivity growth in recent years would be first order of importance and also challenging"
X Link 2024-11-06T10:15Z 73K followers, [----] engagements
"@betterltthannvr Its what people think but if you ask them about the objective aspects of their financial well being like income wages jobs wealth all after inflation most are better off. The narrative got so lodged on inflation that it signal jammed the surveys"
X Link 2024-11-06T10:26Z 73K followers, [---] engagements
"The big lesson is not that people hate inflation. Duh we knew that already. The lesson is that in our current info environment (which Trump is much better at) bad news looms very large. Obama era levels of unemployment would have been punished as much if not more. (Of course there are also lessons about how to prevent and fight inflation. It was bad. The job-full recovery was very good.)"
X Link 2024-11-06T10:35Z 73.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Unemployment affects everyone. Its a sign of how strong or weak the labor market is. When unemployment is low as was the case in recent years wage growth is high (even higher than inflation) more job opportunities exist and employers are more accommodating. Full employment economy is especially good at the bottom. @Donnymack666 @Claudia_Sahm I was thinking something similar. The last time inflation was an issue in America was the early 80s. And inflation affects everybody while unemployment does not. I guess the lesson is unemployment is the trade off Americans prefer when it comes to dealing"
X Link 2024-11-06T12:48Z 73K followers, 28.2K engagements
"Counterfactuals are hard but I pity the politician who decides a recession on their watch is better than avoiding inflation"
X Link 2024-11-06T12:54Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"No we are not in a recession. Nor is one imminent. @Claudia_Sahm Let me guess were in a recession now that Trump won 🤡 @Claudia_Sahm Let me guess were in a recession now that Trump won 🤡"
X Link 2024-11-06T14:42Z 72.9K followers, 24.6K engagements
"@LiquidInvesting You are incorrect on this last point about revisions. Also growth is well beyond government spending"
X Link 2024-11-06T14:47Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Truth_n_facts1 Incumbents would still have been punished. Same in our peer countries"
X Link 2024-11-06T18:58Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@PointsNorth_Cap God bless you"
X Link 2024-11-07T19:56Z 73K followers, [--] engagements
"As Powell carefully explained a new fiscal policy goes into the forecast as soon as its likely. Until a reasonably clear formulation is likely its possible variants are in risk scenarios. And the moment its possible a ton of staff time goes into studying its effects. I know. I became an expert of fiscal relief as a Fed economist. Would you agree that if a govt intends to add trillions of debt the Fed should indicate ex ante such action could impact the conduct of monetary policy & how (even if uncertain) rather than just putting the outcome ex post in its models https://t.co/whOyNl9vB0"
X Link 2024-11-07T20:02Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Jay does such a good job"
X Link 2024-11-07T20:13Z 72.9K followers, 16.7K engagements
"@SteadyTurtle_ Yup. 🐐"
X Link 2024-11-07T20:22Z 73K followers, [---] engagements
"What do people really hate Bad things"
X Link 2024-11-08T10:40Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I am near certain (common sense + historical experience + research) that tables turned with a recession but low inflation the electoral loss would have been worse. Higher price tags are a hardship for some. Smaller paychecks are a disaster for most. @Claudia_Sahm They seemingly hate inflation much more than high unemployment / recession @Claudia_Sahm They seemingly hate inflation much more than high unemployment / recession"
X Link 2024-11-08T10:50Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"accused of being pro austerity. Ive seen it all on here"
X Link 2024-11-08T11:37Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Illiquid_Alpha Nah"
X Link 2024-11-08T12:27Z 73K followers, [--] engagements
"@rint1ntin The last stimulus package was essential to avoiding the recession in bringing down inflation but it could have been smaller more targeted"
X Link 2024-11-08T12:28Z 72.9K followers, [--] engagements
"What is Kyla's 'secret weapon' . in addition to being brilliant . she talks to people as a person about economics. That's actually a radical approach"
X Link 2024-11-08T14:35Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"If you have a central bank that does what the president wants instead of what the economy needs then we can end up with high inflation high unemployment and financial instability Sahm said. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-trump-remove-trump-influence-interest-rates/storyid=115636961 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-trump-remove-trump-influence-interest-rates/storyid=115636961"
X Link 2024-11-08T20:06Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Im not because its not true. People want low unemployment and low inflation. (Also the Phillips curve trade off is not stable.) Economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower recovery with much higher unemployment as long as prices had been stable. Economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower recovery with much higher unemployment as long as prices had been stable"
X Link 2024-11-09T00:32Z 72.9K followers, 60.7K engagements
"@Capitaltryst A high unemployment rate affects all workers via smaller paychecks and fewer job opportunities. A bad paycheck is a great hardship"
X Link 2024-11-09T01:23Z 72.9K followers, [----] engagements
"watching a @DanaFarber online patient forum for inflammatory breast cancer today. I feel rather unlucky to be in the audience (IBC is only [--] to 3% of breast cancer) and over the moon lucky to be getting treatment there"
X Link 2024-11-09T17:13Z 72.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@ChuckGoat1 A crappy labor market hurts all workers. A high unemployment rate is a symptom of a crappy labor market"
X Link 2024-11-09T17:34Z 72.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Nah. Always listen to @LHSummers. (On Biden's [----] $1.9T stimulus program that created inflation and doomed Harris.) https://t.co/yjDewvyjYL Always listen to @LHSummers. (On Biden's [----] $1.9T stimulus program that created inflation and doomed Harris.) https://t.co/yjDewvyjYL"
X Link 2024-11-10T01:40Z 72.9K followers, 20.1K engagements
"@BIGfulla3 Because of the strong labor market this time low wage workers were the first to have their wages outpace inflation"
X Link 2024-11-10T09:12Z 72.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@joehickory2 It missed this time. I dont see an imminent recession"
X Link 2024-11-11T00:43Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements
"The reckoning with inflation. Many are tying the Democrat losses in the election to high inflation in recent years. There's some truth to that but it's complicated and it's crucial to take the right lessons. My new 200th Sub-st@ck post: http://stayathomemacro.com/p/the-reckoning-with-inflation http://stayathomemacro.com/p/the-reckoning-with-inflation"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:11Z 72.1K followers, 46K engagements
"Im not taking part in the reckoning because its not true. People want low unemployment and low inflation. The real lesson is that leaving inflation to the Fed alone was not good enough. Also the simple Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment isnot a thing andleaning on it would have led to worse outcomes in peoples lives and at the ballot box"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:17Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Better outcomes on inflation require better tools. Inflation loomed large in recent electionsin the US and worldwide. The right lesson is to find better tools to prevent and fight inflation not to throw in the towel on unemployment. It is not easy but not impossible"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:34Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I have written many times on my Sub-st@ack about how monetary policy was insufficient and how standard macro tools like the Phillips curve are dangerous. Inflation is bad and we must do better"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:42Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The reckoning is global. Inflation loomed large in all recent elections. As the chart shows every incumbent party facing an election in [----] lost vote shares. The fall in the vote share for Democrats (red dot) was smaller than that for other incumbent parties. Recall that overall economic outcomes have been the best in the US. Other countries experienced high inflation but the US experienced high growth and low unemployment. Even so an election loss is a loss"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:51Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The anti-incumbent pattern makes sense. Inflation is a universal hardship and the lack of tools to fight it is too. Monetary policy is the worldwide go-to for inflation. The US is not alone in its need for a reckoning"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:52Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The story matters. High inflation was a problem reaching levels not seen in decades. Inflation is close to normal now but the higher prices still loom large. In contrast the labor market has been the success story of the recoverygetting millions back to work quickly supporting large wage gains especially among low-wage workers and creating millions of new jobs. Those successes are crucial to countering the hardship of higher prices but the successes did not loom as large in the public mind. Partly it is psychology. Partly it is storytelling"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:54Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Masttrucker The Fed is not the problem"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:20Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements
"To be clear its not all in our heads. Inflation caused real hardship but inflation alone is not the economy. The anger is real. @byHeatherLong summed it up well. Its a complex mix of what happened and how we processed it: https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1855637520899359073 [--] things can both be true: 1) Americans didn't hear enough about the good economic news (low unemployment inflation back down strong growth etc) or the fact that the US economy was doing so much better than rest of world. 2) The inflation shock was worse than anything people https://t.co/ijqEc1uZtY"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:26Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@byHeatherLong In closing. It is time for a reckoning among economists. But the reckoningone of manyis that we need more tools to fight and prevent inflation than the Fed alone. We can do better. The voters told us we must do better"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:09Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Masttrucker Unlikely to have spared us the supply driven inflation"
X Link 2024-11-11T23:23Z 72.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Yes you are missing something. While big fiscal relief and monetary easing during the first year of the pandemic likely caused some inflation the benefits in the labor market recovery were substantial and we would have had high inflation anyway. @Claudia_Sahm @byHeatherLong are you not responsible for fuelling inflation by pump priming fiscal when monetary policy was cut near zero with QE Or am I missing something @Claudia_Sahm @byHeatherLong are you not responsible for fuelling inflation by pump priming fiscal when monetary policy was cut near zero with QE Or am I missing something"
X Link 2024-11-12T10:24Z 71.1K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Puffi and I are now over at 🦋"
X Link 2024-11-12T10:36Z 72.5K followers, [----] engagements
"What could possibly go wrong https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/elon-musk-endorses-trump-intervene-federal-reserve.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/elon-musk-endorses-trump-intervene-federal-reserve.html"
X Link 2024-11-12T13:11Z 72.1K followers, 24.6K engagements
"Ill be on @YahooFinance this morning at [---] am to talk about the CPI and the Fed"
X Link 2024-11-13T12:49Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"We do not have an inflation problem now; we have a housing problem and that's been true for over a year. "The index for shelter rose 0.4% in October accounting for over half of" the inflation measured by @BLS_gov https://t.co/b2SvU0wwiK "The index for shelter rose 0.4% in October accounting for over half of" the inflation measured by @BLS_gov https://t.co/b2SvU0wwiK"
X Link 2024-11-13T13:50Z 72K followers, 151.3K engagements
"@MayankSeksaria Of course its inflation. Being specific about the problem is a good step toward solving it"
X Link 2024-11-13T14:10Z 72.7K followers, [----] engagements
"On @CNBC at [---] pm today rounding out a pretty okay CPI Day"
X Link 2024-11-13T21:00Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm"
X Link 2024-11-13T23:13Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@orntwo Nope. Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://t.co/n4B7CRPLww https://t.co/g8UbYSMPpD Historic gains in wealth. True at overall median and medians across all major demographic groups. https://t.co/n4B7CRPLww https://t.co/g8UbYSMPpD"
X Link 2024-11-14T00:09Z 71.9K followers, [---] engagements
"No convincing evidence of nodal or distant metastasis. Very good news from my PET scan this week. It overruled a suspicious looking MRI. Im not stage [--] and I get to stay in the clinical trial. Huge relief"
X Link 2024-11-14T21:07Z 72K followers, 27.1K engagements
"100% agree with Peter Orszag that the pandemic not the Rescue Plan was the root cause of the inflation though fiscal certainly contributed. (I put the fiscal weight somewhat higher than this piece.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/14/inflation-american-rescue-plan-covid/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/14/inflation-american-rescue-plan-covid/"
X Link 2024-11-17T19:25Z 72K followers, 10.5K engagements
"The gamble of the American Rescue Plan paid off. There was the first job-full recovery in decades and families' spending rose from top to bottom even after inflation. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/a-better-way-of-understanding-the-u-s-consumer-decomposing-retail-spending-by-household-income-20241011.html President Biden hadnt even been inaugurated when he and his senior advisers made a monumental gamble in January [----] that would reverberate through his presidency https://t.co/fSESaTAhu5 https://t.co/fSESaTAhu5"
X Link 2024-11-18T12:37Z 72.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Genuinely interested in the "small dollar" ways to "fix" our economic data reporting . Also what does fix even mean here I think @howardlutnick to Commerce is a good move. He is uniquely qualified to fix something that does not cost a lot of money but desperately needs fixing: the reporting of economic data. The Commerce Department oversees all the statistical agencies including the Census and I think @howardlutnick to Commerce is a good move. He is uniquely qualified to fix something that does not cost a lot of money but desperately needs fixing: the reporting of economic data. The Commerce"
X Link 2024-11-21T13:06Z 72K followers, 26.6K engagements
"2) Federal stats agencies have been actively using more private sector and admin data. The CPI had several changes along those lines in recent years like with auto prices. BUT it is a painstaking effort. Private sector series like Truthflation and Billion Prices have very short time series and you need official stats to create representativeness"
X Link 2024-11-21T13:24Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements
"More examples in the volume. By the rhetoric you would think our stats agencies are trash. Actually they are world-class and constantly innovating. But I look forward to the improvements. Always room to improve https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/big-data-twenty-first-century-economic-statistics https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/big-data-twenty-first-century-economic-statistics"
X Link 2024-11-21T13:32Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Fascinating. Convince people the economy is trash and they expect you to do something to help them. Some voters are hoping President-elect Donald Trump may send out another stimulus check. Experts say the likelihood of this is extremely slim. https://t.co/G6bW7wltLD Some voters are hoping President-elect Donald Trump may send out another stimulus check. Experts say the likelihood of this is extremely slim. https://t.co/G6bW7wltLD"
X Link 2024-11-22T15:59Z 72K followers, 22.2K engagements
"@Stanonstuff @blgrieb See the links in the piece"
X Link 2024-11-22T19:30Z 72K followers, [--] engagements
"@JimWelshMacro My comment doesnt say that nor do I. Btw Im personally worse off financially. Back off"
X Link 2024-11-22T19:41Z 72K followers, [--] engagements
"Rule of thumb: the Census is in the Constitution. Do your legal job well. Rule of thumb: the federal government shouldnt be in the business of buying Super Bowl ads. Rule of thumb: the federal government shouldnt be in the business of buying Super Bowl ads"
X Link 2024-11-24T20:24Z 72K followers, 93.4K engagements
"There is so much good that outside the box thinking in the government could do but its being wasted on destructive simplistic thinking. DOGE is on track to be a wasted opportunity"
X Link 2024-11-24T20:26Z 72K followers, 12.6K engagements
"@nhensle11 Another brilliant idea"
X Link 2024-11-24T20:26Z 72K followers, [----] engagements
"@nhensle11 I agree accountability is important. Humphrey-Hawkins hearings are a key part of it. But I doubt people want a world without the Fed"
X Link 2024-11-24T20:42Z 72K followers, [--] engagements
"@LPoPNH One thing that bothers me about DOGE is that its all about cutting resources or employees. Some efficiency would come from more resources. A MASSIVE overhaul of the the IT as one example would be huge"
X Link 2024-11-24T20:45Z 72K followers, [---] engagements
"My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way. The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years notes @claudia_sahm and the main goal for Trump and Powell should be to keep it that way https://t.co/cu6Lkab4SY The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years notes @claudia_sahm and the main goal for Trump and Powell should be to keep it that way"
X Link 2024-11-25T12:01Z 71.9K followers, 12.3K engagements
"Real GDP is on track to exceed its pre-pandemic trend for the second year. Typically the Fed might worry strong growth is a sign that the economy is in danger of overheating but not this time. Inflation fell. The extra growth largely reflects higher productivity and a faster-growing workforce"
X Link 2024-11-25T12:05Z 71.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Productivity is the 'holy grail' of economic prosperity. Small improvements really add up. So what's behind the recent gain and is it sustainable My piece talks about the surge in business applications since the pandemic and the fast pace of job changes earlier in the recovery"
X Link 2024-11-25T12:11Z 71.8K followers, [----] engagements
"- 🧵 My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way. My new @opinion piece turns a question Powell keeps getting on its head: "If US economic growth is so good then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates" It'd be better to examine why growth is so good and ask what the Fed and others can do to keep it that way"
X Link 2024-11-25T16:38Z 71.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The bottom line of my new @opinion piece: If DOGE were really about making the federal government more efficient as its name suggests then it would promote the option of working from home. Instead it's been banned. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-17/doge-ban-on-wfh-will-reduce-government-efficiencysrnd=undefined&sref=YAR8Qcu4 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-17/doge-ban-on-wfh-will-reduce-government-efficiencysrnd=undefined&sref=YAR8Qcu4"
X Link 2025-04-17T17:29Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@annap_2013 @philadelphiafed Congratulations We are all so fortunate to have you serve on the FOMC"
X Link 2025-04-17T17:51Z 70.9K followers, [---] engagements
"move fast and break things is broke"
X Link 2025-04-19T01:52Z 70.9K followers, 15K engagements
"help me out: what are the upsides for the President in threatening to fire Powell in public I dont have an issue with the criticisms and can see their upside. Its the firing that doesnt make sense to me"
X Link 2025-04-19T21:45Z 70.9K followers, 31.9K engagements
"(Im serious. Ive been taught Fed independence is sacrosanct so Im struggling to understand the logic.)"
X Link 2025-04-19T21:47Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Goodness I agree with the WSJ editorial board today and Larry. It might be time to pack it up "
X Link 2025-04-22T01:04Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I also got an op ed on why recessions are bad. Strange times. PS I'm an optimist at heart even when my heart hurts"
X Link 2025-04-22T01:06Z 70.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Narrator: a recession is not ok. Welker: Is it ok in the short term to have a recession Trump: Yeah. Everything is ok. https://t.co/vxFnmE9HtD Welker: Is it ok in the short term to have a recession Trump: Yeah. Everything is ok. https://t.co/vxFnmE9HtD"
X Link 2025-05-03T02:14Z 71K followers, 14.5K engagements
""A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed. It must draw on an even wider range of data to avoid that pitfall. Soft data can be especially important on the forward-looking question of whether tariff-induced inflation will be persistent." #FedDay"
X Link 2025-05-07T13:38Z 71K followers, [----] engagements
"Tariffs are raising inflation expectations but will they reshape behavior and lead to persistent inflation I am a big fan of the Michigan Survey and asking people about expectations more generally but my @opinion piece today comes down as being very skeptical of the rise in longer-term inflation expectations"
X Link 2025-06-03T18:28Z 71K followers, 13K engagements
"Skeptical #2 Consistent with confusion the outliers of very high inflation are no longer outliers. One in [--] respondents say inflation will average 15% or more in the next [--] to [--] years. Highest fraction ever"
X Link 2025-06-03T18:31Z 71K followers, [----] engagements
"There are reasons to be skeptical of the inflation expectations reported in the Michigan survey. But that doesnt necessarily mean the Fed should be more confident about other measures that show anchored expectations. We will have to watch this one grind out in the data"
X Link 2025-06-03T18:35Z 71K followers, [----] engagements
"Automatic stabilizers are fairly common such as progressive income taxes. (One more reason to dislike tariffs and One Big Beautiful Bill is they are regressive and weaken the stabilization.) Has any country ever experimented with an independent fiscal authority A central-bank-like entity shielded from the electoral cycle that could counter-cyclically cut and raise taxes Has any country ever experimented with an independent fiscal authority A central-bank-like entity shielded from the electoral cycle that could counter-cyclically cut and raise taxes"
X Link 2025-06-18T00:07Z 71.1K followers, 11.3K engagements
"Its over. For months people have been asking me whether I still trusted govt data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling. I cant say that anymore. For months people have been asking me whether I still trusted govt data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling. I cant say that anymore"
X Link 2025-08-02T01:19Z 71.2K followers, 29.7K engagements
"Pretending something youre not never ends well Feds not the Oracle no one is theyre there to call it as they see it free of politics. This seems a rather odd timing for a major new framework announcement from @federalreserve. If anything it seems the errors have been on the side of excessive transparency excessive forecasting. We have too many dot plots too many forecasts too much cacophony. My own view is This seems a rather odd timing for a major new framework announcement from @federalreserve. If anything it seems the errors have been on the side of excessive transparency excessive"
X Link 2025-08-16T22:30Z 71.3K followers, [----] engagements
"This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/trump-aims-to-win-majority-on-fed-board-with-attempt-to-oust-lisa-cooksrnd=homepage-americas&sref=YAR8Qcu4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/trump-aims-to-win-majority-on-fed-board-with-attempt-to-oust-lisa-cooksrnd=homepage-americas&sref=YAR8Qcu4"
X Link 2025-08-21T16:00Z 71.3K followers, 51.3K engagements
"Do not forget. Its about control of the Fed. This is a very dark day. This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://t.co/ePWshNTTFj This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed said Claudia Sahm Theyre pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control. https://t.co/ePWshNTTFj"
X Link 2025-08-26T00:25Z 71.3K followers, 38.5K engagements
"hi macro peeps now is not the time to bring up all the times the Fed made a mistake in the past this moment is not about optimizing monetary policy its about independence"
X Link 2025-08-27T23:38Z 71.3K followers, 13.7K engagements
"🙃🙃🙃 The [----] mortgage crisis was largely caused by Mortgage Fraud. WE CANNOT HAVE [----] HAPPEN AGAIN The [----] mortgage crisis was largely caused by Mortgage Fraud. WE CANNOT HAVE [----] HAPPEN AGAIN"
X Link 2025-08-29T01:11Z 71.3K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Endorse. Betsy Duke Alan Blinder and @bhgreeley https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/planet-money/id290783428i=1000724100936 http://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/planet-money/id290783428i=1000724100936 http://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p"
X Link 2025-08-30T19:59Z 71.3K followers, [----] engagements
"I have seen it all. The BLS caused the Global Financial Crisis in [----]. What The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC - they completely blew the jobs picture stayed pat and then had to scramble. Here we are again. The BLS data collection is too sterile and slow The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC - they completely blew the jobs picture stayed pat and then had to scramble. Here we are again. The BLS data collection is"
X Link 2025-09-07T20:03Z 71.4K followers, 79.3K engagements
"Its time for Pulte to go. The mortgage fraud claim against Lisa Cook is false per documents obtained by Reuters. Bill Pulte's accusation the sole pretext Trump used to fire her from the Fed was that she claimed two homes as primary residence. These docs show she did not. https://t.co/aZf0YR9JBN The mortgage fraud claim against Lisa Cook is false per documents obtained by Reuters. Bill Pulte's accusation the sole pretext Trump used to fire her from the Fed was that she claimed two homes as primary residence. These docs show she did not. https://t.co/aZf0YR9JBN"
X Link 2025-09-12T22:35Z 71.4K followers, 126.2K engagements
""Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach." Powell last month in Jackson Hole speech. Ages ago"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:46Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Trump threatened to fire Cook during the speech and did so the next week though courts kept her on so far. Today a current White House official voted on monetary policy. The wheels are coming off the data-driven independent Fed. Not completely off and maybe the Supreme Court steps in but it's surreal"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:47Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I do not expect Powell to take on the President in the presser but it would be a critical time to remind everyone -- the White House Congress markets regular people -- why political control of interest rates is a bad idea"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:48Z 71.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The reason to have technocrats in charge of rates is not that they always get it right but that they don't get it consistently wrong like politicians causing inflation. Technocrats follow the economic data and apply their expert judgment. They are not focused on winning the next election"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:49Z 71.5K followers, [----] engagements
"First Fed Governor tweeting. I will give props to that. Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members I felt it necessary to be meticulous and transparent. https://t.co/LKLM6wlZbS Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members I felt it necessary to be meticulous"
X Link 2025-09-22T19:24Z 71.5K followers, 47.1K engagements
""0.5% annual CPI inflation. Good news" @t0nyyates reminds us we need a model to judge economic data https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/0-5-annual-cpi-inflation-good-news/ https://longandvariable.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/0-5-annual-cpi-inflation-good-news/"
X Link 2015-01-13T12:30Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements
"the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished" http://t.co/SgZRWHYs03 interesting note from SF Fed on forecasting http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-projections-optimism-federal-reserve/ http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-projections-optimism-federal-reserve/"
X Link 2015-02-03T01:15Z 73.1K followers, [--] engagements
"good @Noahpinion post: http://t.co/DDruO5x94f in response to @JohnHCochrane post: http://t.co/M7dJp3oi7C on a model of (oil) news shocks http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.jp/2015/03/arezki-ramey-and-sheng-on-news-shocks.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-case-where-rbc-works.html http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.jp/2015/03/arezki-ramey-and-sheng-on-news-shocks.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-case-where-rbc-works.html"
X Link 2015-03-21T11:23Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements
""You overcame obstacles to make it here and more obstacles to complete your degree." Fed Chair Yellen https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm"
X Link 2016-12-19T19:26Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements
"thought-provoking analysis . this result by credit score reminded me of debate over who caused the housing crisis https://x.com/pdacosta/status/837440668054204416 http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/ "High-credit-score individuals prioritized credit card debt over mortgage debt when choosing between the two." https://t.co/TqqE6txHNy https://t.co/Stpe2pk6Tg https://x.com/pdacosta/status/837440668054204416 http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/ "High-credit-score individuals prioritized credit card"
X Link 2017-03-03T00:17Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements
"note: credit scores are a ranking across individuals not an absolute metric of creditworthiness https://x.com/nicktimiraos/status/869335140539002880 https://www.clevelandfed.org//media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/economic%20commentary/2010/ec%20201016%20your%20credit%20score%20is%20a%20ranking%20not%20a%20score/ec%20201016%20revised%20your%20credit%20score%20is%20a%20ranking%20not%20a%20score%20pdf.pdfla=en What several years of conservative credit standards have wrought: Pristine credit scores https://t.co/OxASjZ3Dnh https://x.com/nicktimiraos/status/869335140539002880"
X Link 2017-05-30T01:13Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements
"going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many interesting papers on credit economic inclusion etc https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html"
X Link 2017-10-06T00:02Z 73.4K followers, [--] engagements
"conference slides and video are now posted for the FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium: it was a great research event do check out the work https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/916091160279638016 https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many interesting papers on credit economic inclusion etc https://t.co/sg1GrGrtYm https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/916091160279638016 https://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/consumersymposium/2017/index.html going to FDIC's Consumer Research Symposium next Friday. many"
X Link 2017-11-21T19:28Z 73.5K followers, [--] engagements
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