# ![@ChrisEconomist Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1499192982414966784.png) @ChrisEconomist Chris Richardson

Chris Richardson posts on X about money, inflation, rates, australia the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  70.75% [countries](/list/countries)  10.38% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.89% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.94%

**Social topic influence**
[money](/topic/money) 15.09%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 14.15%, [rates](/topic/rates) 11.32%, [australia](/topic/australia) 8.49%, [official](/topic/official) 7.55%, [economy](/topic/economy) 7.55%, [over the](/topic/over-the) 5.66%, [more than](/topic/more-than) 5.66%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 5.66%, [debt](/topic/debt) 5.66%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@sauleslake](/creator/undefined) [@conversationedu](/creator/undefined) [@cokeefe9](/creator/undefined) [@thekouk](/creator/undefined) [@sydneyyimby](/creator/undefined) [@shaneoliveramp](/creator/undefined) [@avidcommentator](/creator/undefined) [@shanewright](/creator/undefined) [@richardyabsley](/creator/undefined) [@senbmckenzie](/creator/undefined) [@georgesstpaul1](/creator/undefined) [@manoflamanca](/creator/undefined) [@gregwithers3](/creator/undefined) [@benphillips_anu](/creator/undefined) [@matt_barrie](/creator/undefined) [@john_poelwyk](/creator/undefined) [@humpheryjenner](/creator/undefined) [@gammygimbal](/creator/undefined) [@cranky_old_guy](/creator/undefined) [@thumpernats1](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"THE BEAT GOES ON The days ahead of a budget update always see stories that note: (1) how impossibly hard the juggle facing the government is (tick got that on Thursday) and (2) how magnificently the government is fighting that fight on our behalf (tick todays stories about the $20bn the government just saved) To be clear I am super happy that the government is fighting the good fight To be even clearer we dont yet know just how hard the government has fought of late Thats because we have only learned how much the government has just saved not how much it just spent We will find that out on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2000037460567589074)  2025-12-14T02:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"NOT AS BAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN BUT STILL BAD I'd been hopeful that the RBA wouldn't raise rates in [----]. But wage growth has been faster than I expected and the same has been true of inflation itself. On the other side of the ledger the strengthening $A may yet stay the RBA's hand. But the balance of probability now suggests Australia 🦘 gets a rate rise next week. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2016313966843277583)  2026-01-28T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"CAPITAL GAINS TAX REFORM The politicians are out today playing a straight bat on whether the May budget will include changes to the tax treatment of capital gains. And that ladies and gentleman tells you that its finally happening otherwise the denials would be flowing thick and fast. Good on the government for acting on this: Ive called for changes for a long time. But first the basics: why do we have different tax treatment of capital gains versus other income There are three good reasons to tax capital gains at a lower rate than other income. First time is money. Wages are taxed straight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2018892236642291833)  2026-02-04T03:39Z [----] followers, 30.9K engagements


"WOULD CGT REFORM HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOUSING PRICES Would any reform to the tax treatment of capital gains magically make housing affordable Yeah nah . The dollars just arent big enough to see any huge shift in the dial In brief a cut in the CGT discount to 33% would have roughly the same impact on housing prices as this weeks interest rate rise by the RBA (of something like a 1% to 2% fall all else equal) That means it would unwind two months of 2025s growth in housing prices Thats far from nothing Yet it is neither apocalyptic nor revolutionary If you are reading commentary that makes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2019180430046748900)  2026-02-04T22:45Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements


"WHO ARE YOU I really wanna know With apologies to The Who I worry that the current discussion of capital gains taxes is far too focussed on The Who and far too little on The What Research released to the press yesterday jumped up and down about the fact that the capital gains tax discount goes overwhelmingly to high income earners But whether a policy is good or not isnt measured by whether it is used more by doctors or by nurses It is measured against whether the policy achieves its objectives So to be clear in figuring out what is or isnt good policy analysts shouldnt care who you hate or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2019511942965252342)  2026-02-05T20:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"THE BLAME GAME Why has inflation picked up again Total spending covering that by families businesses and governments is running faster than the Australian economy can keep up with. So that spills over into higher imports and also into higher prices. The chart gives what Ill admit is an overly simplistic way of looking at this. It divides overall spending in Australia into public and private showing the increase in both in recent years. Note this really only covers part of public spending the likes of the wages of public servants as well as their computers and offices plus things such as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2020250262699667467)  2026-02-07T21:36Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements


"POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY And thats why independent scrutiny is vital. Power is surrounded by temptations. If its actions arent flooded with sunlight those temptations may prove irresistible. A current example is the CFMEU and the $15bn allegedly siphoned out of taxpayers for the Big Build. But the point is a general one businesses unions and governments can each have enormous power. If they arent scrutinised enough then bad stuff will happen. So they have an incentive to avoid scrutiny: Thats why politicians demand transparency when theyre in opposition and then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/2022808684825579754)  2026-02-14T23:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Absolutely Yes raising JobSeeker would add almost 1% to federal spending. But it would also have a remarkable impact on fairness. Or to put that another way it's a strikingly cheap way to achieve a fairer Australia. We should do it. Boosting JobSeeker the most effective way to tackle poverty - my latest piece in @ConversationEDU https://t.co/sUSoclCMtp Boosting JobSeeker the most effective way to tackle poverty - my latest piece in @ConversationEDU https://t.co/sUSoclCMtp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1648577224143163392)  2023-04-19T06:40Z [----] followers, 18.8K engagements


"Its time to talk about non-compete clauses . the chains that bind ex-employees to their old employers. Right now the RBA is begging the nation to lift its productivity and reform of non-compete clauses would be one of the simplest and smartest ways to do that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1670886080516706305)  2023-06-19T20:07Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements


"Reserve Bank dilemma . Marvellous news on monthly inflation rate says hold But the huge queue for TayTay tickets says still lots of people with lots of money to burn meaning that it'll be hard for the RBA to shake inflation off "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1673868614154452993)  2023-06-28T01:39Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements


"Federal budget data for May is out. It shows absolutely barnburning revenues. Over the [--] months to May the cash underlying surplus lifted to a spectacular $20.4bn up from $8.9bn a months ago (and $1.0bn two months ago)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1674630935361486851)  2023-06-30T04:08Z [----] followers, 53.2K engagements


"If we want the airlines to treat their customers better then incentives matter much more than individuals Alan Joyce going early doesnt matter What matters is the bad rules and regulations Australian governments of both sides have put in place over many years practically "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1699167649383747743)  2023-09-05T21:08Z [----] followers, 22K engagements


"As a nation weve truly madly deeply stuffed up taxing our gas riches (Mozambique does it better than we do) The good news is that the government has announced PRRT reforms The bad news is that those reforms mostly mean we get money earlier (rather than more money)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705083076744032475)  2023-09-22T04:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"while these modest changes are being debated it makes sense for the gas majors to ramp up use of their deductions while they can Doing so saves them tax in a way that would otherwise be slowed down under the proposed changes Or to put that another way the proposed changes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1720284660264325354)  2023-11-03T03:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"How we tax gas in Australia is broken Thats because weve allowed tax deductions that are way too generous The governments suggested bandaid is to slow the speed at which those deductions can be claimed But thats like telling the kids theyll be banned from eating "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1721380930684866868)  2023-11-06T04:16Z [----] followers, 14K engagements


"SOME THOUGHTS ON [----] AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR [----] [----] had two big surprises for economists The first was that interest rates didnt slow economies as much was expected The second was that inflation came down pretty fast anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1737358041715237103)  2023-12-20T06:23Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements


"Stage [--] . Canberra has suddenly gone very quiet and my spider senses are tingling "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749293259351036094)  2024-01-22T04:49Z [----] followers, 65.7K engagements


"@cokeefe9 Note that the $180000 threshold has been unchanged since mid-2008. By the end of the budget forecast period in mid-2028 it will have been unchanged for [--] years Just saying "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749318967297196272)  2024-01-22T06:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Many taxpayers will get $932 more Many taxpayers will get $4418 less The dividing line is close to $150000 About 13% of taxpayers (those $150K+) will lose The rest get lower tax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749953385921696063)  2024-01-24T00:32Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements


"The least noticed thing about the new tax scale - assuming leaks correct - is costs extra $17bn over forward estimates Almost $5bn in the yr starting in [--] months That isn't what last night's rumours (no net extra cost) said Unwelcome news for the RBA "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749954116179378662)  2024-01-24T00:35Z [----] followers, 44.6K engagements


"OK the rumours have been updated - there's no change to the tax free threshold. So . Many taxpayers get $804 more Many get $4546 less Dividing line $149335 13% of taxpayers lose; rest get less tax Extra cost 2bn a yr (so much smaller inflation risk than I'd feared)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749995267292815438)  2024-01-24T03:19Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"Is it fair It bugs me all todays announcements ignore that [--] out of every [--] adults dont pay personal tax as their incomes are too low (pensioners unemployed students carers some single parents many disabled) So rejigging a tax cut does nothing "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750398233636171893)  2024-01-25T06:00Z [----] followers, 30.1K engagements


"Fellow sad losers gather round cos the Feb budget data was just released In the past [--] months the underlying cash surplus was $28.8bn Thats above where it finished last yr and many miles above the official projection for 2023-24 of a small deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1773183013838360874)  2024-03-28T02:59Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements


"@TheKouk Yes. Or think of it as 0.07% of our living standards - one fourteenth of one percent. There are genuine competition and regulatory issues in our economy and that includes some supermarket issues. But this is mostly red herring stuff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1780562417128485038)  2024-04-17T11:42Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements


"Ouch Today's inflation is ugly Bad news if you're hoping for an interest rate cut - even late [----] looking a bit hopeful Bad news if you're putting together a govt budget - as there's a risk more spending would push a 1st rate cut after the election https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1782952147862331442)  2024-04-24T01:58Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements


"Its budget season so time to explain why I love them so much The budget is Australias national social compact: we tax workers and businesses and spend that on the young the old the sick the poor and a defence force Its a quarter of national income or a third if you add the states to the feds As the noted economist Cyndi Lauper points out Money changes everything. Getting the budget right is marvellous. Getting it wrong is a disaster Overall balances are important (debts and deficits) but the component bits are truly vital We do some things really well. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1784362955469197714)  2024-04-27T23:24Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements


"Starting in just six weeks Australian families will get truckloads of dollars everything from tax cuts to electricity rebates rent assistance and more. But theres a chance that our governments have overdone it. The money thats about to start arriving in your pockets is the equivalent of almost half the money that the RBA deliberately took out of your pockets. My latest in the SMH and Age The Reserve Bank has been stomping on the brake but now our governments are hitting the accelerator. What could possibly go wrong That very much depends on how much of their tax cuts will families spend. One"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793411152925577295)  2024-05-22T22:38Z [----] followers, 38.3K engagements


"Bad inflation numbers but not big miss & best guess remains rates slow to fall rather than soon to rise Yet we're [--] weeks from more than one & a half percent of national income arriving as govt tax cuts & spending increases so we need to hope saving is about to rise https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/monthly-cpi-indicator-rose-36-year-april-2024 https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/monthly-cpi-indicator-rose-36-year-april-2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1795635916851249360)  2024-05-29T01:58Z [----] followers, 26.6K engagements


"Not quite as bad as it looks But still bad 😞 It's not the most likely outcome but be aware a lift rates by the RBA at its August meeting is now a possibility 😞 And be uncomfortable that more than $40bn gets tipped into our economy [--] days from now https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1805780799435980836)  2024-06-26T01:51Z [----] followers, 33K engagements


"NEGATIVE GEARING HERES A LITTLE SOMETHING I PREPARED A LITTLE EARLIER I wrote something for the SMH and the Age a year-and-a-half ago. Luckily its as true today as it was then. The summary Continuing to worship at the altar of abolish negative gearing or bust just isnt going to help young Australians all that much. This nation has been strangling the future of younger Australians for decades. Our housing policies are perhaps the single worst example of that we do dumb things and those decades of dumb things cant be fixed fast. . So what can and should we do First the bad news. Theres no magic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1839022016197964080)  2024-09-25T19:19Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements


"YES WE ABSOLUTELY SHOULD DISCOURAGE TOBACCO USE VIA TAXES BUT . if the tax goes hugely up at the same time as illegal alternatives (such as chop chop tobacco) are readily available . . then we lose out twice. Some of the health benefits of discouraging smoking go up in smoke and so too does the tax take Tobacco taxes have more than halved in the last [--] yrs as a share of national income even though the tax rate has continued to climb Yes part of that is less tobacco use - yay. But much of it has simply been encouraging people into the black market (Before you ask no I don't smoke.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1845264141470269776)  2024-10-13T00:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Many thanks @SydneyYIMBY It is downright depressing to walk along an inner city street in Australia and realise that planning and heritage restrictions have declared an end to both history and progress . Terrific article from @ChrisEconomist emphasising that we need to let our cities change. Sydney was not perfected in [----] and the rules locking so much of our city in amber have almost zero evidence or scrutiny behind them. The least we can do is measure their enormous costs. https://t.co/Gjb0lISMf9 Terrific article from @ChrisEconomist emphasising that we need to let our cities change."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1846373532789625199)  2024-10-16T02:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"20% CUT FROM STUDENT DEBT THAT ISNT INFLATIONARY BUT IT IS DUMB Yesterdays announcement on student debt was pretty sensible. Todays is not. If you went to uni your lifetime income is about a third higher than those who didnt. Thats a huge amount of money. So handing $16bn to graduates is a reverse Robin Hood: its a tax cut targeted to the big end of town with money going from the less well off to the better off. Its a fairness fail. Worse still that $16bn does nothing for the nations future. It doesnt deliver incentives thatd make anyone more likely to study or encourage anyone into work."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1852824936068657480)  2024-11-02T21:27Z [----] followers, 35.1K engagements


"HOW HAS THE BURDEN OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX CHANGED OVER THE PAST [--] YEARS Data out from the PBO today (see their table 4.2) divided up the personal tax take by age and gender over the past [--] years. I charted that and got something I wasnt expecting in relative terms younger Australians are paying a lot less and older Australians a lot more. (For example [--] years ago females aged [--] to [--] paid 1.68% of personal tax and thats now 3.98% - an increase of 137% while males under [--] paid 8.61% then and 5.54% now a relative drop of 36%.) Some of that pattern is a rising relative number of older"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856999016283668523)  2024-11-14T09:54Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements


"Australias luckiest ever government Theres a clear winner and its not even close Im a budget nerd so I measure luck in dollars. And luckily Treasury compiles official numbers on the impact of luck on the budget. Those numbers say Lady Luck has shone on Jim Chalmers handing the budget truly magnificent manna from heaven. Most people think budgets move because politicians make decisions but in practice they mostly move because of the economy. Thats where the luck came in for this government. In a span of less than [--] months Treasury jacked up the estimated tax take by a remarkable $365 billion."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1863183874349748561)  2024-12-01T11:30Z [----] followers, 55K engagements


"Ouch I was wrong. I thought tax cuts and subsidies would boost living standards by more than 2% in todays numbers Nup The Bureau of Stats shows that less than half of the tax cut reached punter pockets in recent months (it takes time for pay systems to adjust) And mortgage costs continue to rise as past interest rate increases continue to work their way through the system Add more of a slump in small business incomes than I expected plus a bit more population growth than Id allowed too and living standards rose by a bare 0.2% in the September quarter Theres more good news left in the pipeline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1864129851139215708)  2024-12-04T02:09Z [----] followers, 37.2K engagements


"BETTER CALL SAUL The federal budget is Australians social compact with ourselves We tax workers and businesses so that we can support the young the old the sick the poor and our national defence One of the great pillars of our national social compact is the Commonwealth Grants Commission. It aims to be fair to Australians no matter what State or Territory they live in Getting those CGC policies right is central to the future of Australia and Australians But the CGC is also central to the biggest hole in this nations budgetary bucket the WA GST deal That deal actively worsens fairness across"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1895643433404182676)  2025-03-01T01:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"YOUD STILL RATHER BE US OUR LOW DEBT IS A BLESSING IN A VOLATILE WORLD My new article in the Fin is grumpy about a bunch of things so it is worth noting the good news upfront: Australian federal government debts and deficits are a fraction of those in most of the nations we compare ourselves too. The chart is OECD data which uses gross debt. Net debt is an even better measure and it is remarkably low. At $541bn it is less than 20% of national income. (If you hear someone talking about a trillion dollars in debt theyre using the gross figure meaning theyre trying to exaggerate. The political"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1901370038822805575)  2025-03-16T20:28Z [----] followers, 25.2K engagements


"Some more thoughts from my article in todays Fin Much of our spending is stupid much of our taxing is terrible . On the tax front Australia may be a first world nation but we increasingly have a third rate tax system. It last got a spit and polish a quarter of a century ago with the subsequent neglect leaving it ever more reliant on a handful of increasingly damaging taxes. As the chart below shows person al and company taxes now account for almost three-quarters of the total tax take. In the meantime weve built a system with: Superannuation taxes that raise next to nothing(less than the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1901452524135260469)  2025-03-17T01:56Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements


"WANT BETTER POLITICIANS GIVE THEM BETTER INCENTIVES The chart below shows the relentless rise of off budget spending Thats where Australian politicians put their trash Youre only meant to be able to put something off budget if taxpayers dont need to worry about it For example if something is going to earn a commercial rate of return (money will go out but even more will then come back in) then it doesnt need the same degree of scrutiny Yet thats not whats happening. The rules changed back in [----] with the Charter of Budget Honesty. That Charter is great but the politicians have increasingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1903237709101142204)  2025-03-22T00:10Z [----] followers, 11K engagements


"A BOUQUET Tonight's budget did a beautiful thing reforming non-compete clauses The clue is in the name: those restraints on almost a quarter of Australias workers come at a cost to all of us There are things a business should absolutely be able to protect a departing worker shouldnt for example be able to take that business special sauce (such as an app or a particular program) But from the viewpoint of the nation as a whole you absolutely dont want to be able to stop departing workers from trying to poach your clients and your staff Sorry businesses that may be bad for you but the ability to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1904452417409933410)  2025-03-25T08:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"OFF BUDGET SPENDING When it was elected the government inherited off budget spending of just under $40 billion over five years The matching figure is now $104 billion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1904453386633920794)  2025-03-25T08:40Z [----] followers, 15.1K engagements


"OK so it is duelling fossil fuel subsidies . The government's electricity rebates versus the opposition's fuel tax cuts And the govt is throwing in five cents off a pint in a pub Sometimes it's hard to believe we're in the twenty-first century Because the pollies aren't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1904997512576118787)  2025-03-26T20:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Feb data just out & the budget dropped back into deficit $0.3bn last [--] mths Yes Oz has the benefit of v low debt by global stds - tho due to luck not good management But our budget is covered with barnacles & challenges are rising yet neither side offering a vision😧"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1905456835454493096)  2025-03-28T03:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"BE THE WORST THAT YOU CAN BE Back in [----] David Ricardo wrote of comparative advantage: each nation should do what it does best and then trade with other nations we sell them what were good at and we buy what theyre good at That allows each nation to be the best that it can be and so the most prosperous it can be And now this Liberation Day it aint The US tariff rates are entirely mechanical: trade deficit in goods divided by imports then halved. And if thats smaller than 10% then you get 10% (which is how Australia got our 10% rate) Its hard to describe just how dumb that mechanical formula"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1907617928436134167)  2025-04-03T02:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Getting harder and harder to distinguish tariffs from tantrums And although the latest backdown is good news it doesn't change the fundamental fact that chaos comes at a cost - and that there's been way too much chaos for weeks now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1910084341943963806)  2025-04-09T21:36Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements


"SMART POLITICS DUMB POLICY Todays the day that poor policy has a picnic The Coalition is promising a tax cut for a year and the ability to deduct mortgage payments for first homebuyers while Labor will subsidise first homeowners to be able to buy with just a 5% deposit. Thats two different dumbs both released today. The one-off handing of money to the public to help with the cost of living has been massively used by the current government think electricity rebates. And the opposition is set to do the same with its one off fuel tax cuts and tax rebates. Except none of those policies from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1911197956658897057)  2025-04-12T23:21Z [----] followers, 29.2K engagements


"OUR LEADERS ARE PLEASERS NOT DOERS How should our politicians be judged Both sides understandably compare themselves to the other lot and proclaim themselves better. And commentators sometimes say that todays policy or promise is better than it used to be. Yet those are relative yardsticks. Theyre like the old joke two people are running from a grizzly bear and one yells we cant outrun it The reply is I dont have to outrun it: I just have to outrun you And its true that relative yardsticks are pretty vital if for no other reason than theyre important in deciding how you should vote. Yet I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1912641977944089053)  2025-04-16T22:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SHOW ME THE MONEY . I've long since switched off Both sides promising to do next to nothing that's useful despite growing economic/geopolitical clouds 😞 But it is 💯 true the Coalition shd release its costings - shd have [--] wks ago Democracy marches on the little things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1917368291858997635)  2025-04-29T23:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"THE COALITION'S COSTINGS ARE OUT Both sides should have released them two weeks ago as well as releasing costings of each notable policy when they're announced - we need our politicians to do better No huge surprises. More costly to start then net savings versus Labor That's because Coalition bribes are bigger but also temporary. The "bigger" is bad the "temporary" is good The savings are pretty dependent on cutting public servant numbers. That'd be hard to achieve. Then again to be fair PS costs have risen enormously in recent years and seemingly much more than the savings on consultants I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917830103637319721)  2025-05-01T06:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Beautiful stuff from @ShaneOliverAMP [--] problems with the Aussie tax system and the reason why no one is fixing it @ShaneOliverAMP #Ausecon #tax https://t.co/JLIRZWGz6J [--] problems with the Aussie tax system and the reason why no one is fixing it @ShaneOliverAMP #Ausecon #tax https://t.co/JLIRZWGz6J"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1927522511979241738)  2025-05-28T00:29Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements


"CIGARETTE TAXES - THE LONG ROAD BACK Congratulations to NSW Premier Chris Minns for speaking up about cigarette taxes By raising taxes much faster than we boosted the enforcement of those taxes Australia: Underwrote organised crime (by creating a massively profitable black market) Worsened health outcomes (by making smoking much cheaper) and Blew a $10 billion a year hole in the federal tax take Thats a massive own goal. It is also damage that is increasingly irreversible: the longer we let the black market flourish the harder itll be to wind it back and we will be stuck with these negatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1931411292226486766)  2025-06-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH TOBACCO IS IMPRESSIVELY IDIOTIC Subsidising organised crime on an industrial scale is umm not smart. It comes at a cost to our health it comes at a cost to taxpayers (we all pay an extra $12 a week in personal tax to fill the resultant hole) it comes at a cost to our safety (via the rise of organised crime) and it is hitting the profits of business. The longer we wait before we act the harder it will be to undo those effects "  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937239061888139698)  2025-06-23T19:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"SAY A LITTLE PRAYER FOR ME I am grateful and honoured to be asked to attend the Reform Roundtable in a fortnight. We have a problem: the average Australian saw their living standards rise by just 1.5% over the past decade. Thats embarrassingly shy of the 22% lift in living standards enjoyed across the rich world as a whole and way below what Australians achieved in times past. Youd have hoped that both sides would have talked about tackling that challenge at the last election but they didnt. Thats why the Reform Roundtable is potentially important. If theres enough consensus to change some"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1953229625079021727)  2025-08-06T23:00Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements


"Good news Australians are no longer smoking or drinking Official numbers from the ABS on Tuesday show that our spending on smoking and drinking has dropped to a third of what it was as a share of total family spending just three and a half years ago That is unbelievable Literally unbelievable To be more exact we got the taxing of tobacco spectacularly wrong That meant our policies have subsidised the fastest increase in the revenue of organised crime that Australia has ever seen. (Even better for the crims the downside of getting caught with their illegal cigarettes is still mostly a fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1954081456973918274)  2025-08-09T07:24Z [----] followers, 41.7K engagements


"TAXING CIGARETTES THE LOST DOLLARS ARE DEVASTATING The chart shows tax collected on cigarettes as a share of Australian national income Weve been raising the tax rate fast for a decade and a half and those higher rates drove the overall tax take up even though smoking rates were falling back But the stick snapped five years ago. People gave up buying the legal stuff and switched to the black market And weve continued to raise tobacco taxes in the five years since then theyve risen a further 49% across a period in which overall prices rose by only 21% That increase in the real tax rate should"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1955411464463979001)  2025-08-12T23:29Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements


"Thinking all things Roundtable so I've updated the chart on living standards over the past decade - The good news is that Australia's average has improved since my last update - The bad news is we still have a big challenge ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1957298350413459526)  2025-08-18T04:27Z [----] followers, 39.4K engagements


"THREE BANNER HEADLINES OR NOT The tax discussions in todays Roundtable were excellent: there were a whole bunch of good ideas. But I dont want to say anything on the specifics right now because the potential for progress is stunningly fragile and especially so in tax our most poisoned well. Pretty much anyone who was in the room today could generate the three banner headlines that would kill any idea that came out of this Roundtable. Itd be all too easy to do. Thats exactly why we should all tread carefully and all actively seek the largest possible potential compromises for progress. We all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1958477819455144227)  2025-08-21T10:34Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements


"Ouch 😬 That doesn't look good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983330892086120573)  2025-10-29T00:31Z [----] followers, 30.2K engagements


"And there she blows The budget was in surplus in the past yr with the [--] mths to March [----] showing a surplus of $1.034 bn Yes that's wafer thin. & there's no economic difference between a billion in surplus & a billion in deficit But it's a $204bn turnaround in [--] mths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1651802319368130561)  2023-04-28T04:15Z [----] followers, 88.3K engagements


"Today's rate rise by the RBA My mental image here is of Jim Chalmers (as Ross) saying to Phil Lowe (as Rachel) BUT YOU SAID WE WERE ON A BREAK That is all "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1653323950007652353)  2023-05-02T09:02Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"What do I expect over the coming year That family finances will get much worse before they get better. Four groups bear the pain of fighting inflation: [--]. wage earners (as prices jump ahead of wages) [--]. borrowers (as interest rates rise)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1671620195872387078)  2023-06-21T20:44Z [----] followers, 44.2K engagements


"Most people still dont realise federal debt is back below where it was before COVID hit Check out this chart In Jan [----] pre-COVID net debt was $430.2 bn & calendar [----] nominal GDP was just over $2 trn ($2008 bn) for a net debt ratio of 21.4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1675623591138955265)  2023-07-02T21:52Z [----] followers, 40.7K engagements


"If I wanted to dump things that don't stack up from Victoria's 'to do' list the #CommonwealthGames wouldn't be at the top of the list. There's a much more costly much dumber elephant out there . https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/andrews-urged-to-re-examine-pwc-s-suburban-rail-loop-analysis-20230711-p5dnby https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/andrews-urged-to-re-examine-pwc-s-suburban-rail-loop-analysis-20230711-p5dnby"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1681092435047510016)  2023-07-18T00:04Z [----] followers, 52.2K engagements


"The RBA opted for no rate rise. And on my view therell be no further rate rise to come in this cycle official interest rates in Australia have now peaked. That also means the RBA is happy to double down on what has to date been a successful gamble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1686233253030846464)  2023-08-01T04:31Z [----] followers, 15K engagements


"The budget has whirred back into surplus with such bewildering speed that much of the nations conversation about our fiscal finances bears little or no resemblance to the actual current numbers . (1) But what about net debt - Debt is back to June [----] in dollar levels "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1705734826194870778)  2023-09-24T00:04Z [----] followers, 23.6K engagements


"As a nation weve truly madly deeply stuffed up taxing our gas riches The good news is that the government has announced PRRT reforms The bad news is those reforms mostly mean we get money earlier (rather than more money) The even worse news is that "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1720284510477246568)  2023-11-03T03:39Z [----] followers, 56.4K engagements


"And its legal. But its also infuriating The upshot is that total PRRT collections in the last [--] months have been NEGATIVE $16 million weve paid them Important caveat: PRRT payments are always lumpy and complicated. And there are quarterly peaks so "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1720284951248330859)  2023-11-03T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


". the tax take will pick up again next month Yet even allowing for that key caveat Australians are being dudded We should have genuine reform on the table But we dont because both sides are in a scrap over who will win marginal electorates in WA Aaagghhh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1720285095402348761)  2023-11-03T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Australias Reserve Bank has been doing it differently raising rates less than seen in other nations Its been doing that with the aim of causing less damage to our economy / unemployment But that approach comes at the cost of a slower drop in inflation here than elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1721738118825714061)  2023-11-07T03:55Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements


"This is the article I never wanted to write because two wrongs dont make a right But youve gotta know when to hold em and know when to fold em And I'm hoping theres a chance two wrongs make less of a wrong Housing and migration have collided https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/housing-and-migration-have-collided-one-will-have-to-give-20231114-p5ejy4 https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/housing-and-migration-have-collided-one-will-have-to-give-20231114-p5ejy4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1724501078144962842)  2023-11-14T18:54Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements


"Some thoughts on housing - Australia's misery machine #QandA https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-21/foreign-uni-student-cap-australia-housing-crisis-qa/103129118 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-21/foreign-uni-student-cap-australia-housing-crisis-qa/103129118"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1726706219866562794)  2023-11-20T20:56Z [----] followers, 29.3K engagements


"Thoughts from Gerard Minack that are similar to mine Gerard's words - "Over the past [--] years governments have not invested enough in building the schools roads hospitals and housing required to compensate for population growth." My words last week - "weve blown up the everything else that should accompany a strong migration intake. Australias overall population was growing by almost a Canberra a year ahead of COVID but even then we werent adding anything like a Canberra a year worth of well-located housing let alone schools hospitals or roads.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1727292105884889331)  2023-11-22T11:45Z [----] followers, 16K engagements


"Ignore the noise focus on fundamentals The govt is busily making decisions about what happens to the tax cuts and to its cost of living assistance So its worth remembering the economics for a moment Australians cost of living is under pressure because inflation took off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1749650312795914342)  2024-01-23T04:28Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements


"And the timing of the tax cuts They arrive in [--] months For an economy with an inflation problem that worries me ANZ recently noted something that Ive been saying for months that the tax cuts are the equivalent of [--] interest rate cuts (0.5%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1750402587013382202)  2024-01-25T06:17Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements


"Stamp duty is a spectacularly bad tax As house prices have risen so much & as stamp duty rates rise alongside prices this dumb tax has become much dumber Stamp duties have been the standout tax reform option for the nation for some time and the case for action is rising How much money would you give up to change homes Half a year of take-home salary Stamp duty is in this ballpark. It costs the average capital city dweller five months of after-tax income. 1/ How much money would you give up to change homes Half a year of take-home salary Stamp duty is in this ballpark. It costs the average"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1756841039565148458)  2024-02-12T00:41Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements


"Not all taxes are created equal. Some destroy more value in the economy than others Stamp duty is gold medal winning in its destructiveness That's because it is is a big red stop sign in front of people being where they want to be https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-fastest-way-to-add-5-billion-to-victoria-s-economy-axe-stamp-duty-20240213-p5f4gz.htmlbtis= https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-fastest-way-to-add-5-billion-to-victoria-s-economy-axe-stamp-duty-20240213-p5f4gz.htmlbtis="  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1759694807415636321)  2024-02-19T21:41Z [----] followers, 22.1K engagements


"Some of today's remarkable job numbers may not be fully accurate But the basic story is very happy Inflation in Oz has dropped lots yet unemployment has risen only a little Yes the first cut in interest rates is probably some way off But smell the roses: we've done well 😃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1770617270688985158)  2024-03-21T01:03Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"What caused the surplus On budget night a year ago I said thered be another surplus this year That now looks a done deal Howd that happen And why did I expect a surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1785142985870672268)  2024-04-30T03:03Z [----] followers, 41.1K engagements


"I am a very proud Australian But I hate that our unemployment benefit is so low that it almost guarantees poverty There is no excuse for that Relative to the minimum wage Australias unemployment benefit is the second lowest in the OECD only ahead of Greece Ive just signed a letter alongside distinguished fellow economists arguing the need to do better Yes that means spending more And yes I also think the upcoming federal budget needs to be very careful not to poke the inflationary bear so it needs to be careful with its spending But that simply means the govt needs to walk and chew gum at the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1785447114669228091)  2024-04-30T23:12Z [----] followers, 43.5K engagements


"Some key posts Why I love budgets Why solving the cost of living crisis isnt easy (& why subsidies hurt rather than help) What caused the surplus Why inflation is the disease (& cost-of-living problems are the symptoms) A reasonable ask for the budget Best case scenario for the budget And my detailed pre-budget thoughts https://twitter.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1787094694327099746 https://twitter.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1788889896343785730 https://twitter.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1788725966732489173 https://twitter.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1788323786166550827"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1789444223978324166)  2024-05-11T23:55Z [----] followers, 34K engagements


"What just happened My big ask of the Budget was that it didnt poke the inflationary bear. I dont think it passed that test. The government said it would be careful not to frontload its new costs. But thats exactly what it did and its new dollars are both big AND fast. In the coming year theyre eight times the size of what they are by 2027-28. So this budget narrows the Reserve Banks already narrow path. Six months ago Treasury estimated total federal spending in 2024-45 at $710 bn. But tonight they revised that up to $727 bn. $12 bn of the $17bn thats just been added to federal spending in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1790314345181946209)  2024-05-14T09:32Z [----] followers, 80.2K engagements


"Read it and weep The deal by which federal taxpayers provide extra funding to the nation's strongest state economy - WA - was last officially costed at $39.2 bn Treasury just updated that estimate to $52.9 bn - higher than the $50 bn that @SaulEslake and I had each independently calculated In case you're wondering that means we're set to spend much more every year on the most expensive marginal seat strategy this nation has ever seen than we'll be spending on a Future Made in Australia. Not happy "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1790320889864892868)  2024-05-14T09:58Z [----] followers, 37.6K engagements


"AUSTRALIAS SUPERANNUATION SYSTEM IS A REVERSE ROBIN HOOD The way we tax super takes money from poorer Australians and hands it to richer Australians my latest in the Fin: Yet supers fairness fail is worse than people realise Most economists see how we tax the money that goes into super as its key fairness fail But how we tax the money earned inside super is worse You may think we tax earnings inside super at 15% cos thats what the law says So youd expect the after-tax return for every pre-tax dollar of earnings to be [--] But its [-----]. For every $ of earnings inside super taxpayers fork over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1793783018404118668)  2024-05-23T23:16Z [----] followers, 65.2K engagements


"WHY WE ARE WHERE WE ARE The Reserve Bank has been trying hard to do little damage to jobs as it fights inflation back down Going slow and steady produces better news on jobs but worse news for wage earners borrowers and taxpayers (because it means an extended slog on inflation which means lower purchasing power for wages as well as an extended period of pain for borrowers and a bracket creep boost to the tax take) In other words the current slowdown spreads the pain beyond the unemployed and thats a very good thing But the politics of that are bad. More people are grumpy. And theyre grumpy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1800327044871643230)  2024-06-11T00:39Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements


"I stand with Saul Remember this is about treating every state fairly So it is about ALL revenues NOT just the GST Mining royalty revenue is thru the roof. To effectively ignore that in deciding how much money each state should get is really dumb https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/saul-eslake-s-one-man-mission-to-undo-the-gst-deal-and-make-wa-pay-20240623-p5jo2b https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/saul-eslake-s-one-man-mission-to-undo-the-gst-deal-and-make-wa-pay-20240623-p5jo2b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1816005929265160286)  2024-07-24T07:02Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"Today's a good a day as any to remind people that sharemarkets and economies are two very different beasties Or as Warren Buffet once said "If you knew what was going to happen in the economy you still wouldn't necessarily know what was going to happen in the stock market.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1820337587728572852)  2024-08-05T05:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Today's report card on the economy was no surprise: there's little growth & most of the pain is being felt by families But I'm surprised that some are still talking about recession risks That risk was always low given both rapid population growth & the RBA's careful approach It's even lower now as big tax cuts & subsidies are helping growth - almost 2% of national income just got handed back to the punters That's why growth will lift from here (though partly at the expense of ongoing inflation risks) PS I've been asked my view of recession risks for a few stories in the past year. My answers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1831266695794798636)  2024-09-04T09:42Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements


"THE CARNIVAL IS OVER The Treasurer provided an update today but he buried the headline: Since the government came to power expected revenues across a four year period have been revised up by a third of a trillion dollars Yes you read that right Thats not because the government raised taxes Its because of war migration and inflation War drove up the price of things we sell to the world so the pie we tax got bigger Migration saw population growth roar which also meant the pie got bigger and the tax take rose (most of the budget costs of migration fall to the states) And inflation changed slices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1859106479535763820)  2024-11-20T05:28Z [----] followers, 17.6K engagements


"THE BUDGET WASSUP The federal budget is currently getting both better and worse but the official data wont let you know either way I get incredibly frustrated by the poverty of official data on the federal budget its late its partial and its deliberately deceiving The budget is getting better because since Treasury ruled off on its budget update ahead of Christmas the $A has dropped more than 6% versus the $US That drop has been faster than the matching drop in commodity prices which alone adds back about $10bn per year to the budget bottom line Going the other way however were getting closer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1880390582889247192)  2025-01-17T23:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Say I've got a bunch of things to fix around the house and I ask three friends for advice . The first friend tells me every single problem can be fixed with a hammer The second tells me I'd be an idiot not to use a drill every time The third friend says "hammer for these things drill for those and maybe ask someone else on those other things cos I'm not good at them" Imma gonna listen to the third friend. The first two were useless . And yes this is a comment to rusted on supporters of both sides You're part of the problem If you want to change minds admit where you disagree with your"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1881467778638725317)  2025-01-20T22:24Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements


"AUSTRALIAN LIVING STANDARDS THE LONG AND GRINDING ROAD My old colleagues at Deloitte Access Economics have released their latest forecasts including the point that it is likely to be [----] before Australian workers recover their pre-pandemic purchasing power Thats not understood by most Australians which is why its being ignored in the election policy promises of both sides of politics Why such a grind Three things can shift living standards Subsidies and tax cuts can improve todays living standards at the cost of tomorrows living standards. (You eventually have to pay for stuff ) But weve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1884374290646327715)  2025-01-28T22:53Z [----] followers, 33.3K engagements


"THE GOVERNMENT JUST USED TREASURY TO COST AN OPPOSITION POLICY I really hate it when the public service gets used in a politicised way Both sides have done it while in government and both should be ashamed of that This isnt the fault of Treasury its the fault of the politicians who stoop to it The politicians have an incentive to stoop because (1) they can use Treasury for free for political purposes and (2) they can describe the policy in a way that means Treasury puts a big price tag on it So its no surprise that Treasurys costing is skyhigh at between $1.6 and $10bn a year Lets be clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1886663245538439564)  2025-02-04T06:29Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements


"Well thank heavens . that'll solve housing affordability for the young (Or not . It may simply add to the money to buy homes without adding to the number of homes to buy) A reliable rule of thumb is that policy gets worse as an election approaches . It just got easier to get a home loan even if you have a HECS debt. Here's why https://t.co/MXmQuI9BEd It just got easier to get a home loan even if you have a HECS debt. Here's why https://t.co/MXmQuI9BEd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1889445115120517610)  2025-02-11T22:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"MORE SPENDING = MORE TAXES When spending goes up then eventually taxes have to go up too So when politicians are promising lots of extra spending I always remember that theyre promising lots of extra taxing too they just dont say the quiet bit out aloud So its relevant that theres been a lot of extra federal government spending The governments official measure show that since being elected its decisions have added a net $31 billion to spending in this financial year alone And when taxes have to go up here in Oz the simplest way to do that is for politicians to let wage inflation push people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1894129158617506125)  2025-02-24T20:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ive got a new article up in the Fin It makes a few points so Ill do a bunch of posts But it starts with a key point competition is failing in Australian political markets How can you tell Follow the money For two decades now the election campaign policy differences between the major parties have amounted to less than 1% of the budget the taxes flowing in and the spending flowing out across the four years that budgets set out in detail And although the budget isnt a perfect yardstick of political differences it is measurable and it is arms length It looks like happening again in the current"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1901129982904332764)  2025-03-16T04:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A BRICKBAT Australia has hugely increased the tax on cigarettes But that didnt get us more tax revenue it got us less A lot less To take 2026-27 as an example the latest forecast is that well raise $6.8bn in tobacco taxes But as recently as December [----] the official estimate for that year was $14bn That says the expected tax take has halved in a handful of months It is hard to imagine a more epic policy fail Check out the chart below Weve managed to worsen the health of Australians by making smoking much cheaper than before The black market is costing Treasury more than $10bn a year (meaning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1904452810059771934)  2025-03-25T08:38Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements


"WHO WINS WHO LOSES Im guessing therell be winners & losers stories from todays policy launches So it is worth remembering neither side are promising anything much that will increase living standards Thats because such policies are challenging YIMBY housing changes to our terrible taxing and stupid spending policies federation and competition reform and the like So no matter what Labor & the Coalition say their policies are merely reallocating shares of the pie theyre not actually growing it Why are they doing that Because the winners from it are obvious: your tax will be lower your fuel will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1911248594847600661)  2025-04-13T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AvidCommentator Yes There's a truly depressing lack of understanding about the timescales involved At the moment the policy pendulum hasn't swung in the direction of your children Or your kids' kids Or theirs Or theirs "  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1912347149427445829)  2025-04-16T03:27Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements


"THAT $3m SUPER TAX The many fails in Australias superannuation system have turned it into a money-making scheme for the rich thats paid for by the poor In a better world wed have had a 15pp discount to marginal rates on tax on the way into super as well as a higher rate of tax on earnings Given were not in that world I think having the $3m super tax is better than not having it even allowing for the two problems re no indexation & taxing unrealised gains (both are deliberate problems with the aim Im guessing that doing bad things on taxing big balances will partly offset the other mistakes)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1922877612000674273)  2025-05-15T04:52Z [----] followers, 18K engagements


"HOUSING HELP OR HARM JUST DO THE MATH Much is being made of the new scheme to help wannabe first homebuyers purchase on just 5% deposit a step that helps them avoid the cost of lenders mortgage insurance (LMI). The official advice from Treasury is that will only raise house prices by a further 0.5%. BUT the Treasury figure is an average across all housing prices and this policy help is directed at cheaper housing. So a 0.5% increase in the total value of housing a number that is skewed by the top end is consistent with cheaper homes seeing prices increases of around 3%. And heres the thing ."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1960485935394775229)  2025-08-26T23:34Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements


"REALISE THIS THERES A HOLE IN AUSTRALIAS TAX BUCKET Our tax system sometimes taxes income before it is realised as is true for example of council rates and land tax. But we mostly make the taxman wait. And there are good reasons for that. We can immediately see how much money someone has earned when theyre paid a wage and so we tax wages straight away. But we cant be sure how much someone has earned from owning the likes of a business or shares in a business or land. So we usually wait until theres a sale until the income is realised before it is taxed. And thats especially important to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1964846092270579964)  2025-09-08T00:19Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements


"DUM DUM de DUMB . Sydney's median price across both houses and apartments rose by $10000 last month. (OK it was $9900.) If it maintains that pace then median housing prices will rise by $120000 in the coming year. How many young people do you know who will be able to save more than $120000 - after tax - in the coming year So if you were to nominate the policy that you'd LEAST want to see coming into operation today it'd be the one that lets new homebuyers buy on a 5% deposit . To repeat the obvious Australia doesn't have a lack of money chasing housing. We have a lack of housing. The policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1973231536674840705)  2025-10-01T03:40Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements


"EVER WONDERED WHY POOR POLICIES ARE SO HARD TO KILL Australians often get policies that feel good rather than policies that actually are good. There are at least three reasons for that. The first is when voters think that a bad policy is actually good for them. Feel good FBT breaks for electric vehicles fall into this category as do a bunch of housing policies. The second type of hard-to-kill poor policies is when governments see an opportunity to make the other side look bad. The recent election provides a good example. The government wanted to remind voters that while health minister under"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1974244627340501315)  2025-10-03T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"WILL THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE NEW SUPERANNUATION TAX CHANGES GET ANY HEADLINES Some quick thoughts [--]. The changed treatment for low income earners is way overdue. Low income earners were going to be taxed more when their money went into super (as opposed to most people who are taxed less on their money going into super) [--]. The introduction of a second threshold at $10m is a good idea. And yes it means that having more than $10m in super is now unlikely to be attractive (given all the other loopholes available in the Australian tax system) [--]. I understand why they shifted away from taxing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1977568963967287563)  2025-10-13T02:55Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements


"WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR ILLEGAL TOBACCO EDITION Coles announced today their tobacco sales are down 57% in the past year alone (h/t @shanewright) That drop has occurred even though tobacco prices are up by a tax-powered 12.9% across that same period meaning the fall in the number of packs sold is 63% Yup. Down almost two-thirds in the past year alone (The latest federal budget data backs this up too. We collect customs duty on lots of stuff not just tobacco. Even so total customs duty collections are down 34% across the same period.) Every single stat is screaming blue murder And sure some of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChrisEconomist/status/1983741711789781407)  2025-10-30T03:44Z [----] followers, 35K engagements

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