#  @CdnElectWatch Election Watcher Election Watcher posts on X about canada, gdp, inflation, countries the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::779329471/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +166% - [--] Month [------] +451% - [--] Months [-------] -37% - [--] Year [-------] +1.70% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::779329471/posts_active)  - [--] Months [---] +20% - [--] Year [---] -58% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::779329471/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] -0.18% - [--] Month [-----] -0.46% - [--] Months [-----] -1.80% - [--] Year [-----] +38% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::779329471/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [us election](/list/us-election) [currencies](/list/currencies) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [stocks](/list/stocks) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [canada](/topic/canada) #2748, [gdp](/topic/gdp), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [countries](/topic/countries), [vancouver](/topic/vancouver), [money](/topic/money), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [toronto](/topic/toronto), [in the](/topic/in-the), [investment](/topic/investment) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bryan4langara](/creator/undefined) [@prominentbryan](/creator/undefined) [@mileslunn](/creator/undefined) [@pullthepocket](/creator/undefined) [@bagelpolling](/creator/undefined) [@natfitz1](/creator/undefined) [@kpthinks95](/creator/undefined) [@gmwulocal](/creator/undefined) [@colinhi57449530](/creator/undefined) [@mikepmoffatt](/creator/undefined) [@acoyne](/creator/undefined) [@denistrailin](/creator/undefined) [@chinonsoxobeta](/creator/undefined) [@pierrepoilievre](/creator/undefined) [@trevortombe](/creator/undefined) [@rayhoang30](/creator/undefined) [@mikalskuterud](/creator/undefined) [@syntheticusalt](/creator/undefined) [@sivaramv](/creator/undefined) [@thechaosweeber](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Gains (GAINS)](/topic/gains) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "No major news on April/May vaccine supply: first COVAX shipment announced but it's only 0.3168M doses. Big boost to Pfizer shipments but only in June - that accounts for inflection at the right of the graph. Additionally slightly revised my assumptions for May and June" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1378617455115857920) 2021-04-04T07:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Recent CAN cases 9/14 No change to map Weekly change in 7-day total in non-Atlantic provinces: MB: +41% AB: +16% SK: +16% QC: +12% BC: +8% ON: -3%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1437923372407484417) 2021-09-14T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Recent CAN/US cases 9/15 US 1063k new cases 9/9-15 up 2% from last week (rebound from Labour Day testing slowdown; 2-wk change: -3%/wk) CAN map change NL gets stripes Weekly change in 7-day total in non-Atlantic provinces: MB: +45% AB: +22% QC: +19% SK: +15% BC: +4% ON: +3%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1438382710855061504) 2021-09-16T06:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Might seem like a political map at first but it's not. Above-average GDP per capita + below-average income per capita: ND NE WY TX. Likely resources boosting GDP. Below-avg GDP per capita + above-avg income per capita: OR HI RI VT ME. Likely retirement income" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1673165343332917249) 2023-06-26T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mikalskuterud @mileslunn Yup but the difference is that total population growth was: 1971-84: 1.19% 1984-93: 1.27% So population growth didn't explode. The problem now isn't that 1.5+% is too high per se but that it's 50+% higher than the 1.0% we had in the previous [--] years overloading the system" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1674512313943220224) 2023-06-29T20:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mileslunn @mikalskuterud I think the Trudeau gov't is basically trying to stabilize labour force growth forgetting that non-workers also need housing and health care" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1674513234655850497) 2023-06-29T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A lot of this since Tuesday. Counterpoint: the rented accommodation index is up 5.7% and the owned acc. index is up 5.5%. So the price of owned housing services isn't overstated. Moreover both are WAY below rents on the open market so inflation is arguably grossly understated" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1674519476749103104) 2023-06-29T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mikalskuterud @mileslunn I'm using July [--] (Q3) figures for 1971-84 and 1984-93. Note that there was a methodology change between Q2 and Q3 [----] which may distort your 1971-83 number. From Jan. [--] [----] to Apr. [--] [----] the compound growth rate is 1.46%/yr - your 1.18% isn't capturing the recent surge" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1674520767198007297) 2023-06-29T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Ethan_Lou @acoyne Kinda weird they used nominal GDP per capita instead of PPP. The Economist should know better" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1674528916621647872) 2023-06-29T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@PhilSmith26 @mikalskuterud At least in Vancouver the empty housing issue is somewhat moot given the big empty homes tax (and provincial vacancy tax) that we have" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1677881449326977024) 2023-07-09T03:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Here's a useless map: currency values. It is kinda funny that rich Western countries tend to have the most valued currency units - there's no real reason for it as any country can knock off zeroes. Black market values used for . VED used for (VES co-circulating)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1678889099258888192) 2023-07-11T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For all the hand-wringing about mortgage interest costs pushing up the inflation rate total shelter actually pushes CPI-trim *down*. Rent control regulated utilities strong base effect for things like fuel all contribute to this. Key chart from the BoC behind today's hike to 5%. Core inflation (by various measures) has cooled but has stubbornly remained too close to 4%. https://t.co/bJs2f0puOk Key chart from the BoC behind today's hike to 5%. Core inflation (by various measures) has cooled but has stubbornly remained too close to 4%. https://t.co/bJs2f0puOk" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1679193010859577345) 2023-07-12T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The BoC's forecast (July MPR) implies roughly these month-to-month seasonally adjusted inflation rates (annualized): 3.75% [----] Q3 2.25% [----] Q4 [----] BoC sees stronger current pressure than [--] months ago hence hikes to return to previous forecast's track from Q4 on. #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1679211001689038848) 2023-07-12T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@suestroud @richardzussman @338Canada Of course - wasn't making a political point but as a numbers person I'd really appreciate journalists taking the time to understand the numbers they report" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1680120022600155136) 2023-07-15T07:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SyntheticusAlt On imported goods of course. But the dollar dropped *because* the economy was weakening so domestic price pressures were lower. With a pegged rate we might've had high inflation before the financial crisis and below target inflation or even deflation around [----]. Both bad" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1687248880990081024) 2023-08-04T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "IMO these are right except for foreign buyers (possibly significant factor in Vancouver until 2016/17 new taxes but not in most of ). Rock bottom interest rates were key in the [----] craze and there's very much a long-run supply/demand (i.e. zoning/pop growth) issue" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1687594510589595648) 2023-08-04T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SiTurn62 I do think that interest rates will start to ease in [----] and the economy will start to recover in [----]. But there should be more people struggling with mortgages than now (2 more years of renewals) and the unemployment rate will likely be higher in [--] years than now" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1688760619334254593) 2023-08-08T03:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@prairiecentrist @SyntheticusAlt @2closetocall Yes. If you divided the [---] seats in provinces according to population (April [--] 2023) you'd get: [-----] Atl+ON [-----] West [----] QC Based on the July [--] [----] estimates actually used for redistribution: [-----] Atl+ON [---] West [----] QC Actual: [---] Atl+ON [---] West [--] QC" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1689488826429767680) 2023-08-10T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mileslunn I don't actually think a lot of boomers want to boost the value of their property through market imbalance. Simple NIMBYism is probably a bigger factor. Besides if anything wreaks havoc with housing prices it'll be interest rates not a gradual increase in supply" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1690505585106583552) 2023-08-12T23:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I don't care for either the WEF or people deranged about it. But whatever. It's a sideshow. I also have problems with CBC news coverage but I think it's a lack of political diversity among its staff rather than anything nefarious. Demonizing the Canadian Press though Really" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1690984680978362368) 2023-08-14T07:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@aottho You and @RichardDias_CFA should be aware that Stats Can completely changed their rent methodology in 2019: The earlier methodology grossly underestimated rent inflation as it ignored units that turned over. So Canadian CPI rent data before [----] is junk" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1691930816660779257) 2023-08-16T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MikePMoffatt Otherwise gov't action as outlined in the report risks simply shifting the burden of the housing crisis around (rather than solving it) at great expense. Sadly it often feels like that's exactly what the gov't wants:" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1693339057961804279) 2023-08-20T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MikePMoffatt - spend lots of money to get political cover and photo ops - not do anything that could reduce immigration due to ideology - only focus on rental/social housing to keep home prices sky high (thereby throwing middle and upper-middle class young Canadians under the bus)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1693340106629996898) 2023-08-20T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I expect the Feds to listen to the parts of the plan that involve spending $ directly (e.g. get rid of GST on purpose-built rentals cash for low-income renters). They'll pay lip service to the more crucial parts that involve incentivizing liberal zoning and fast permitting" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1695507216684708175) 2023-08-26T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Life expectancy at birth (in years) [----] G7 select European countries & Canadian provinces [-----] [-----] [-----] QC [-----] [----] [----] [-----] [-----] ON [-----] [-----] BC [-----] NB [-----] [----] 🏴 [-----] NS [-----] AB [-----] MB [-----] NL [-----] SK [-----] 76.1" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696217248275513443) 2023-08-28T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sources: National statistics except Germany (Eurostat used as I could only find 3-yr averages in German nat'l stats) For countries that do not publish a combined male/female figure I took the average" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696217948518830217) 2023-08-28T17:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Dallyd31 @politicstcan The federal gov't controls the demand side of the market through immigration. Population growth was 1.0%/yr consistently under Chrtien Martin and Harper. Trudeau gov't accelerated it - we're now 1.5M people above trend - and is only now thinking about boosting supply" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696363010657542244) 2023-08-29T03:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@2closetocall @SyntheticusAlt Sometimes I ask myself that too. Then I look at home prices and interest rates and tell myself that a bigger downpayment wouldn't hurt if it comes at no or very little effort. I guess this makes me a bad Finance minister who needs to be good at spending money they don't have" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696428923314438416) 2023-08-29T07:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So if current trends continue we're probably falling 100k units more behind each year. If the feds cap the number of foreign workers/students we might need 250k net new principal residences or 275k completions each year. Things would still get worse but a lot slower" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696646748087668818) 2023-08-29T22:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If the feds actually decrease the number of foreign students by 80k per year and cap the number of foreign workers then the situation could stabilize without reducing PR targets" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1696647504706654480) 2023-08-29T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some recommendations make sense but are quite obvious: - Increase workforce participation - Trade infrastructure - Efficient and predictable regulation - Review tax system - Better skills training One recommendation is highly debatable: - Increase economic immigration and" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1697676974192464182) 2023-09-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The rest Gov't structures to direct entrepreneurs: - Canadian Infrastructure Development Bank - Invest in Canada Hub - Superclusters - FutureSkills Lab - "aspirational and collaborative approach" to "unleash growth in 6-8 high-potential sectors" - "advisory services" for SMEs" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1697678488919314877) 2023-09-01T18:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Canada's real GDP is way below the pre-COVID trend despite population growth being above the pre-COVID trend:" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698011994765570182) 2023-09-02T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So did COVID break something in Canada that it didn't break in the US Or would a gap have opened anyway without COVID and we're only able to see through COVID perturbations now" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698013580384477615) 2023-09-02T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@0abelmolina I disagree. It's a better reflection of what people feel so a more useful political gauge but an inferior measure of economic management: - deficits artificially boost after-tax income - short-term changes in % of GDP paid as market income are mainly cyclical" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698044679986774215) 2023-09-02T18:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@0abelmolina That said the median is indeed perhaps more useful than the average. From your link we see that the 5th/6th deciles increased a total of 1-2% more than the average between [----] and [----]. That's not negligible but also not enough to make Canadian growth respectable" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698045792777535703) 2023-09-02T18:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Stockz55 @Gaulather There are certainly financial risks that may materialize in the next few quarters. But unfortunately our problems are deeper: a long-term inability to increase the productive capacity of the economy (faster than the population)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698144880734900707) 2023-09-03T01:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Population growth 1.0%/yr under Chrtien Martin & Harper to 1.65%/yr since [----]. 0.65% of housing stock is 100k. We need about that many EXTRA new units annually. Now look at the scale on that graph. And Liberal apologists expect plaudits" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1698968013058580877) 2023-09-05T07:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'm going to judge ABC Vancouver on the number of housing units permitted during their term - particularly the last [--] years. For Jan-May there were 12.6% FEWER units permitted in Vancouver in [----] than in [----]. That's worse than Canada (-11.6%) BC (-4.6%) or Metro Van (+7.7%)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1699970160109703482) 2023-09-08T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "MPs think their biggest problems are communication and a lack of responsiveness to constituents. I think they're in denial. They've just done a bad job governing the country. Yes Libs have done many good things. But they committed one big mistake that takes time to repair:" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700196370412613798) 2023-09-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I don't think a leadership race would help the Liberals. What's popular with the Liberal base Probably more social housing more immigration and more $ for seniors and low-income people. In other words nothing to win back young middle-class voters flirting with Poilievre. #cdnpoli Thought on a Friday. Is Trudeau stepping down the only way for the Liberals to recapture the publics attention Picking a PM is a big deal it wouldnt just be another leadership race. Spark a debate about the agenda for the party and country and have all eyes on #cdnpoli Thought on a Friday. Is Trudeau stepping down" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700292351913079183) 2023-09-08T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ".@StatCan_eng posted an explanation for the population figures in the Labour Force Survey. But I'm still mystified: - From Apr [--] [----] to Apr [--] [----] the official population estimate increased by 1.21M. - From Apr [----] to Apr [----] the LFS population increased by only 620k" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700314850021515614) 2023-09-09T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sean Fraser's trial balloon about capping foreign students was prior to being floated publicly:" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700553301815877760) 2023-09-09T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@2closetocall Miller first talked about fraud but didn't mention a cap or link it to housing. Fraser then floated the idea of a cap as Housing minister. Miller now talks about "integrity of immigration system" but still downplays the link to housing" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700557731801993696) 2023-09-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BagelPolling Disagree. IIRC QC's fertility was lower than ROC's when QC started rolling out its child care program [--] years ago and there was a mini baby-boom in response to the program" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1700561374823473244) 2023-09-09T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I understand that parents want to know and in most cases that's probably a good thing. But if you're a teacher and a student explains to you that they'll be disowned and kicked out if you tell their parents or that they or a parent would commit suicide what do you do" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1701079101799633070) 2023-09-11T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@2closetocall I think it should be treated like health information. Parents have a right to know until a child has capacity for informed consent. Then the child decides. There's no set age but [--] is way too high" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1701086960998388097) 2023-09-11T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@2closetocall I can see the difference between: - the school formally amending all the internal files to show your kid as a different gender and hiding it from you vs. - the kid just asks teachers one-by-one to use different pronouns because it makes them more comfortable" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1701091806375784464) 2023-09-11T04:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JefferyPetts Yeah so I think there's clearly a zone where the student has good reasons for not wanting their parents to know but where it'd also be inappropriate to treat the parents as abusive. Policies like NB's are clearly not suited for such situations which I suspect are not rare" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1701100264223277292) 2023-09-11T05:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nat_fitz1 You could look it up. Childcare is just about the only major Liberal policy that increases growth. Most of their other stuff - even stuff that I support - is just more spending and/or shifts growth to certain sectors without increasing it overall" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1701344838661353965) 2023-09-11T21:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Sivaram_V @1689Winnipeger @mileslunn @CanadianPolling Actually a bit more due to multiplicative effect and GDP deflator differing from CPI. Nominal GDP growth last year was 10.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702063869630480693) 2023-09-13T20:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$187.5M = $4.69 per Canadian I'm looking forward to my $0.05/day in savings /s Over [--] years grocers' profit margins have increased 1-2p.p. *total*. This is not a major factor in the 10% food inflation that we're seeing. Report - Grocery companies are expected to be summoned by the federal government over food inflation. This comes after the three biggest grocery retailers had more than $1.1 billion in profits in recent quarters Empire saw their profits increase $187.5 million (Earning $261M Report - Grocery companies are expected to be summoned by the federal government over food inflation." [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702460147644367017) 2023-09-14T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@thrubeniuk @MikePMoffatt Would have to ask a lawyer - likely depends on how existing deals are written. Certainly they can insert provisions in any new deals they sign with municipalities" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702493204774637954) 2023-09-15T01:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JJ888CA @MikePMoffatt @acoyne I'm more in favour of going back to the previous rate of population growth (1%/yr). Natural growth has slowed to zero so that'd mean 400k new PRs per year. For the next few years negative growth in temporary residents and maybe somewhat lower PR targets would help" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702504064838459818) 2023-09-15T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Frankly I think we should have expensing of capital investments across the board except for non-residential buildings (as we try to solve the housing crisis) and some other small categories (supply management quotas some personal vehicles etc.)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702726839788249312) 2023-09-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@qiaoshen1972 "Economic profit" means above the market (risk-free here since we're assuming no risk) rate of return unlike accounting profit. If you earn the market rate of return your economic profit is zero" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702774409441010062) 2023-09-15T20:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Pretty good article but I think a significant deficiency is not distinguishing between rent and purchase price. Eliminating the capital gains exemption would reduce demand for *buying* a home but the demand for shelter would mostly remain. I'd also argue that" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702835539534315766) 2023-09-16T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ". taxes on foreign buyers did help but they were imposed just as immigration significantly increased. In [----] & early [----] purchase prices took off in Metro Vancouver. From mid-2016 to now Metro Van purchase prices are *down* in real terms while rents have skyrocketed" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702836517948055860) 2023-09-16T00:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@acoyne Everybody PLEASE do some basic math. Each new housing unit requires about 2-3 man-years of work by people in new residential construction. So just to break even in [--] years there must be a construction worker *for new residential buildings* per 3-5 immigrant households" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1702900908546486667) 2023-09-16T04:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I agree. For someone that observes policy closely (or at least more so than the average person) it might neutralize the issue but for most voters no tangible improvement probably means "another party might do better."" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1703142340955942933) 2023-09-16T20:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@2closetocall I think if rents drop it'll at least neutralize the issue. But that won't happen by [----] unless they do a total U-turn on immigration / foreign students - also very unlikely. As you suggest neutralizing the issue may not be enough to win. But it'd save lots of seats IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1703151816404619431) 2023-09-16T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@2closetocall @ETito604 Miller tweeted that he became a citizen in March 2015" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1704175183064617300) 2023-09-19T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I see how serious and mature our politicians are while the country contends with housing drug overdose and int'l relations crises. Not to mention among the worst per capita economic growth of all OECD countries in the past few years" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1704940037601915118) 2023-09-21T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Total CPP assets would be about $3078 of which 50*($60-$50) = $500 would correspond to the principal and $2578 would correspond to the returns. What should AB get upon withdrawing A) If it had been separate all this time it'd have half the surplus so $1539" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1705107771975401753) 2023-09-22T06:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@2closetocall Each year Canada saves $60-$50 = $10 Alberta saves $10-$5 = $5 Latter is half of former" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1705116550574047565) 2023-09-22T07:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think COVID froze federal voting intentions both because voters were distracted from usual concerns and because of the temporary slowdown in immigration. But now problems are coming to a head: - housing / population growth - stagnant real incomes since [----] - health care mess" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1705272471749001258) 2023-09-22T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Miller is one of my least favourite ministers. Not because he calls out Poilievre for being a serial bullshitter - he's right on that. But because his focus at immigration seems to be whatever he believes "ending racism" means rather than making the system work for Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1705625068850774444) 2023-09-23T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And if you want to speak of serial bullshitting just look at his/Liberal talking points on immigration: - doesn't worsen the housing crisis and suggesting that is "blaming immigrants"; - helps with the labour shortage; - aggressive increases needed due to population aging" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1705626314395500977) 2023-09-23T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "US GDP growth has been solid so why the economic gloom Inflation even if incomes are rising faster (unlike in Canada) Actually. There are [--] ways to compute GDP: by expenditure and by income. The former is the official number in the US as it's considered more reliable" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706086048688902611) 2023-09-24T23:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "- Not checking whether someone that fought the Soviets in Ukraine during WWII is a Nazi or just part of the local resistance before inviting him to Parliament What's the excuse for this one We don't know high school history" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706109978229313957) 2023-09-25T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "(And yes even parts of the Ukrainian resistance that didn't join the SS had problematic links with the Nazis - might be hard to totally "clear" someone. But at least making sure the guy wasn't in the SS seems like basic due diligence.)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706115587242705248) 2023-09-25T01:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@2closetocall If you look at GDP by income there's a weird big drop in net interest payments by corporations. Not sure what's going on there since interest rates rose. But that's only 1% of GDP. We'll have to keep an eye on revisions in upcoming releases" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706135860230672565) 2023-09-25T02:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BagelPolling 40% of GFCF is far from 40% of GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706345341870920047) 2023-09-25T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@GmwuLocal My theory is that the PMO didn't get involved at all. The Speaker invited the guy some gov't security agency ran a basic criminal check and that was it" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706370476564680842) 2023-09-25T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Suppose the gov't's line "it's all the Speaker's fault" is correct. Shouldn't the response then be "Let's establish an all-party process to vet guests that are to be recognized by the Speaker" "Let's just erase this from the record" makes you look guilty even if you aren't" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1706413545448206415) 2023-09-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Oh wow big upward revision to US GDP growth from [----] to [----]. During these [--] years it was previously thought that US GDP grew 13.9% total. Today's release bumps that up to 16.0%. Total real GDP per capita growth from [----] to [----] was 18.0% (compared to 6.1% in Canada)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1707490248975163487) 2023-09-28T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Polish right/far right may have lost the election in the sense of getting fewer votes and seats than the expected centre/left coalition (43% vs 53% [---] vs [---] per exit poll) but it did quite well in votes cast from Canada (53.3% vs 43.0%)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1713708396183158879) 2023-10-16T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Apparently the Senate Finance Committee hasn't had enough of labour "shortage" inflation and substantial deficits during times of full employment. Oh yeah and let's give more money to low-income seniors and immigrants living in their $4M houses in Vancouver and Richmond" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1715991970815037755) 2023-10-22T07:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BoC's forecast (October MPR) implies roughly these month-to-month seasonally adjusted inflation rates (annualized): 5% [----] Q4 (but low in Oct. due to gas prices) 2-2.5% [----] Compared to July MPR much higher inflation forecast for Q4 but similar forecast for [----]. #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1717261159483822382) 2023-10-25T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Imagine your nat'l broadcaster @CBCNews trying to graph GDP growth and ends up graphing: : growth in real final **consumption** expenditure : growth in **nominal** GDP This is unacceptable. Do better. @armstrongcbc #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1720838065630146735) 2023-11-04T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The website is so bad. When you click on a date it seems to show you the clinics doing vaccination on that day regardless of whether appointments are still available. You have to keep clicking clinics until you find one with availability. If all booked repeat with other date" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1720886247932199419) 2023-11-04T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2022 Provincial GDP data out today. AB and SK had strong real growth (5% and 6%) and huge nominal growth given the recovery in natural resource prices. AB's GDP per capita topped $100k. Revisions to real GDP growth: 2020: -5.1% ➡ -5.0% 2021: 5.0% ➡ 5.3% 2022: 3.4% ➡ 3.8%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1722302103551643995) 2023-11-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TheCDNWatch @kylejhutton I don't know if that would've gone down better frankly. Canadians just don't want to hear "helpful suggestions" about personal finance from politicians" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726447391124103651) 2023-11-20T03:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DiamondDaibhidJ Atlantic Canada is different due to the carbon tax being new this year and the heating oil situation. Here in BC we've had our provincial carbon tax since [----]. BC NDP doing well despite BCU and BC Con. vowing to axe it. Federal Liberals in the dumps" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726481589335724427) 2023-11-20T06:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DiamondDaibhidJ I'll also add that the Liberal implementation of the carbon tax and rebate was political malpractice from start to finish. Only 17% of people in the relevant provinces think they got a rebate and say it just about covers or more than covers the tax when it should be 80%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726484580314784160) 2023-11-20T06:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Should the federal Liberals primarily: A) get credit for implementing a carbon tax or B) be blamed for poor communication about the carbon tax and/or the heating oil carve-out leading to the tax's likely long-run demise A B I oppose a carbon tax A and B balance out A B I oppose a carbon tax A and B balance out" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726486128205992154) 2023-11-20T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nat_fitz1 Not at the levels that he's proposing. US gov't spending as a % of GDP would be higher than Scandinavian countries' with all his proposed spending" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726679834259247277) 2023-11-20T19:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nat_fitz1 Well yes it's center-left in the US in case you haven't noticed. Context is important. Having no estate tax is a centrist and even centre-left position here (because we don't have one) but not in the US (because they do)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726798463420305802) 2023-11-21T03:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nat_fitz1 Anyway I'm done with this fruitless semantic discussion. If you want to have your own definition of "left" that excludes Bernie Sanders you do you. Just don't expect others to accept it" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1726798769814110649) 2023-11-21T03:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Dutch inflation numbers are wild: Latest: -0.4% Year ago: +14.3% This is largely due to energy. Excluding that: Latest: 5.1% Year ago: 6.9% The ECB increased interest rates later and less than the BoC/Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1727022258466812208) 2023-11-21T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3 points of GDP is a significant expansion of government: $88B in 2024-25. Since the projected deficit is $38B and carbon tax rebates are $13B had the gov't held the line on spending it could cut taxes by $37B **per year** and run a balanced budget in 2024-25" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1727785509941113095) 2023-11-23T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SteveSaretsky @BMO Come on you should know that CPI rent index before [----] was total junk because it only counted non-turnover units" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1728146456333173187) 2023-11-24T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Students are victims yes but also the millions of Canadians that need to rent at the market rate. Sean Fraser seems to have woken up somewhat to this problem (after overseeing it as Immigration Minister) but Trudeau/Freeland/Miller seem totally fine with the situation" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1728147968367501770) 2023-11-24T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Making a 15-minute video about the housing situation without mentioning immigration a single time shows the Tories are bending over backwards to avoid the topic. They're probably thinking that those wanting immigration to slow will shy away from LIB/NDP anyway" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1731528855893225891) 2023-12-04T04:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "High school students regressing a whole year in math since [----] matches what my colleagues and I are seeing in 100- and 200-level university courses. By the way Finnish students regressed even more and are now below American students in reading. Finland is not the answer" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1732094359913496799) 2023-12-05T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is it just me or today's inflation report isn't very reassuring From July to Sept CPI (seas. adj.) excluding food and energy was up 0.5% in [--] months almost all due to housing. From Sept to Nov it's +0.8% and still +0.5% if you additionally exclude housing" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1737290254862991448) 2023-12-20T01:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great thread with [--] problems affecting Canada's economy: [--]. "Vetocracy" [--]. State capacity [--]. Overlapping jurisdictions [--]. Overreliance on guest workers [--]. Risk-averse corporate culture [--]. Demographics I'd add: [--]. Unnecessary policy uncertainty As always some background: - Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries would trade our problems for theirs in a heartbeat. - This list of [--] isn't about any order of government or party. They're larger. More structural. - This isn't meant to be exhaustive. Here we go. As always some background: - Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741223486016917535) 2023-12-30T22:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Pullthepocket There are lots of sectors in the economy. In any given year outside of recessions it's likely that some sector is having a great year (and some other sector a poor year). That's why it's important to avoid cherry-picking" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741245100548837842) 2023-12-30T23:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Migration policies in many countries such as the USA and Switzerland are too strict. Canadians should understand that when economists from those countries push for more immigration they have in mind a low base. Canada since [----] is a cautionary tale that one can go too far. As working age populations continue to fall in high-income countries the competition will grow to be the most successful in attracting migrants. Countries who set the wrong policies now risk falling behind. https://t.co/dC6sbMjI7a As working age populations continue to fall in high-income countries the competition will" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742323377828941846) 2024-01-02T23:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ProminentDog It's still only 1% and there is probably MUCH more desire among skilled workers to immigrate to Switzerland relative to the size of the country than for Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742329039535349943) 2024-01-02T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Makes sense after a holiday season where money was tight for many and Poilievre's douchebaggery wasn't at the forefront. Conservatives lead by [--] over Liberals in latest Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) poll. 🔵CPC 41% 🔴LPC 24% 🟠NDP 18% https://t.co/Ljvd7JehOH https://t.co/9IICyL8mhE Conservatives lead by [--] over Liberals in latest Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) poll. 🔵CPC 41% 🔴LPC 24% 🟠NDP 18% https://t.co/Ljvd7JehOH https://t.co/9IICyL8mhE" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745519323031179541) 2024-01-11T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'll live-tweet the Taiwanese presidential and legislative election tonight. Polls close at midnight PT (3am ET). Please go find my thread from Jan [--] if you wish to see where things stand. (No retweet: no polling analysis may be disseminated during the 10-day blackout period.)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745931285955248588) 2024-01-12T22:10Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "In Taiwan the vote counting is completely public: anyone can attend it and every single ballot must be shown to those present. Therefore TV stations post employees at many polling stations to count votes as they are counted and before they are officially reported" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745932684751413557) 2024-01-12T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This election could have important ramifications. If Lai (DPP) wins relations with China could worsen further as Lai is thought to be even more anti-China and less careful with his words than the time-limited incumbent Tsai (DPP). Lai has vowed to continue Tsai's China policy" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745939626706215271) 2024-01-12T22:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "If Hou (KMT) wins relations with China would improve overnight. But Hou is not as warm toward China as Ma (KMT President 2008-16) who said this week that for cross-strait relations Taiwan has no choice but to trust Xi Jinping. KMT cancelled Ma's last campaign appearance" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745941600709280043) 2024-01-12T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The US and many Taiwanese voters likely have concerns about both Lai and Hou: Lai has the potential to drag the US into WWIII (unlikely but possible) while Hou may be friendlier toward China than the US would like. Both candidates have sought to allay these concerns" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745942889006604793) 2024-01-12T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In the short run a Lai win is more likely than a Hou win to impact the US election if China reacts aggressively. In the medium run a Lai/Trump configuration could lead to years of instability in East Asia which produces much of the world's advanced electronics" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745944040997351501) 2024-01-12T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As for domestic issues the major themes in Taiwan are: - stagnating wages (despite enviable economic growth from a Canadian perspective) - high cost of housing esp. buying (rent-to-income ratio in Taipei similar to Vancouver but price-to-income ratio much higher) - corruption" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1745946390600339794) 2024-01-12T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "16:20 #Taiwan time SET 310k Lai (DPP anti-China) 221k Hou (KMT pro-dtente) 226k Ko (TPP anti-establishment) EBC 281k Lai 239k Hou 257k Ko TVBS 360k Lai 311k Hou 302k Ko CTV 57k Lai 51k Hou 52k Ko #TaiwanElection #TaiwanElections #" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1746085094228631554) 2024-01-13T08:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ProminentDog This poll that you quote shows that only 28% of Americans think illegal immigration is acceptable much lower than the 53% that disagree with the "poison the blood" statement. That supports my point" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1746688076964155827) 2024-01-15T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I maintain that CERB should've been in the form of forgivable loans. Enter the amount you need but you'll have to pay some or all of it back with your [----] tax return unless you meet certain conditions. There. Wasn't. Time. To. Put. In. Controls. Do people not remember what was going on in March and April of [----] The choice was to wait months/years to put together a leak-proof income support program or to shovel $$ out the door ASAP. Option #2 was the right call. There. Wasn't. Time. To. Put. In. Controls. Do people not remember what was going on in March and April of [----] The choice was to" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1747446233151787264) 2024-01-17T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Immigration is a huge issue for housing affordability and many other things but we should all keep in that even then it doesn't come close to explaining the massive difference in GDP per capita growth. I know the policy discussion about the CA/US CDP gap today is all about immigration BUT how much does the spread that emerged before [----] reflect of the stall-out of Canada's previous economic engine Alberta https://t.co/xX5f5oYGiF I know the policy discussion about the CA/US CDP gap today is all about immigration BUT how much does the spread that emerged before [----] reflect of the stall-out of" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748124817914839497) 2024-01-18T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Between [----] and 2023: - US GDP per capita gained [----] log points relative to Canada - Canada pop gained [---] log points relative to US So if recent immigrants contribute [--] to GDP it'd be 70% of the gap. But if they contribute 50% of the avg. to GDP it'd be 35%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748524039403155756) 2024-01-20T01:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Talk about tone-deafness. [----] is off to a good start. https://t.co/CISXqJAdWz [----] is off to a good start. https://t.co/CISXqJAdWz" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748535407573368999) 2024-01-20T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The OECD seems to have just done a big revision of its recent PPP conversion rates making the US look much worse. The new data shows that 's GDP PPP per capita was at 80.5% of the level in [----] and 80.4% in [----]. This seems to contradict national stats. #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748982199939141759) 2024-01-21T08:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Eh [----] will be ugly anyway. US is around +2% while Canada is around -2% without terms of trade and -4% with terms of trade. So even with no gap between [----] and [----] there will be a huge gap in 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748983341209252285) 2024-01-21T08:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "However that does not mean is doing well. For example Australia was 5% richer than us in 2017; in [----] the gap was 16%. Overall we're still ranked #26 of [--] for 5-year growth. And this is before [----] which was really bad for both GDP per capita and terms of trade in " [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748986691485061589) 2024-01-21T08:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Among countries ahead of Canada only Luxembourg and Germany failed to outpace Canada in GDP PPP per capita growth from [----] to [----]. Both of those are close and may reverse after [----] data comes out. So we're falling further behind our erstwhile peer countries" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748987761259168254) 2024-01-21T08:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara This. Canadian stats show real GDP per capita increasing 2% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 6.3%. US stats show real GDP per capita increasing 9% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 10%. Somehow that 6.3% vs. 10% gap vanishes with OECD PPPs. Canadian stats show real GDP per capita increasing 2% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 6.3%. US stats show real GDP per capita increasing 9% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 10%. Somehow that 6.3% vs. 10% gap vanishes with OECD PPPs" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1748987986421944535) 2024-01-21T08:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheresaLubowitz The child care plan will help somewhat but pre-pandemic only 32% of people in poverty were in families with children under [--]. (It was even lower 30% in 2021.) Also people in poverty are less likely to be working full-time and have high child care expenses" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749181913422831812) 2024-01-21T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheresaLubowitz As for the dental care plan it will have an impact on [----] data but that won't come out before the next election. [----] and [----] numbers could be quite ugly since inflation on rent and food outpaced overall inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749182195686936639) 2024-01-21T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If BC study permits for the coming academic year drop by 50k the Greater Vancouver rental market will cool a lot. It could turn altogether depending on the broader economy and what happens with foreign workers. If rents pull back will Liberal fortunes bounce back (a bit) Study Permits Est. allocation (2022 total * Pop share); [----] Dec to [----] Nov NL 7318; [----] PE 2381; [----] NS 14440; [-----] NB 11411; [-----] QC 121170; [-----] ON 213968; [------] MB 19843; [-----] SK 16506; [-----] AB 64405; [-----] BC 75573; [------] Terr. 1770; [---] Study Permits Est. allocation (2022 total * Pop share); [----] Dec to 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749187894286455068) 2024-01-21T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@kpthinks95 @Bryan4Langara I doubt it unless the drop is huge which seems unlikely: it wouldn't affect cash flow unless the recent buyer needs to sell" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749192465947758739) 2024-01-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Canada may or may not be in a recession but on a per capita basis purchasing power is dropping fast. Change in real GDI per capita over [--] years worst episodes since [----] 2014-16: -2.9% 1980-82: -3.8% 1989-91: -5.5% 2007-09: -5.8% 2022-24: -6% to -7% (forecast) 2018-20: -6.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749239203853222232) 2024-01-22T01:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ray_hoang30 @SyntheticusAlt Change in real GDP per capita over [--] years worst episodes since [----] 2014-16: -0.2% 1980-82: -2.8% 2022-24: -3% to -4% (forecast) 2007-09: -4.1% 1989-91: -4.6% 2018-20: -5.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749247671569924159) 2024-01-22T01:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ray_hoang30 You have to wonder about other factors though since it's not that bad for any other Western province" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749343782020251981) 2024-01-22T08:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Joe_Canadian20 @Bryan4Langara That's just India. Policy sorely needed Total (India) YoY chg Applications processed July: +31% (-12%) Aug: -9% (-44%) Sept: -21% (-51%) Oct: [--] (-42%) Nov: +11% (-28%) Permits newly effective July: +48% (+38%) Aug: +42% (+72%) Sept: +7% (-21%) Oct: +6% (-14%) Nov: +28% (+32%)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749687822657950131) 2024-01-23T06:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @Joe_Canadian20 We're in a budget crunch already bc of reliance on : new students to by 1/3 in [----] & never recovered. used to be 1% of all entering students for us. It to 5% in 2020-21 but back to 3%. Not sure why but maybe admins responded responsibly to low quality" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749692085178175876) 2024-01-23T07:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @Joe_Canadian20 I don't think it's that bad. We're still hiring new faculty this year and I imagine the cap will have no effect on us since we're already at the lowest in [--] years. Many private colleges are gonna get killed. What will happen to public colleges like yours" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749694182858567782) 2024-01-23T07:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Canadian Immigration 2020-23 PR Targets in [----] 2020: 341k 2021: 351k 2022: 361k 2023: 371k extrapolated Tot.: 1424k Actual PR + non-asylum NPR 2020: 185k-96k = 89k 2021: 406k+77k = 483k 2022: 438k+500k = 938k 2023: 465k*+750k = 1315k Tot.: 2825k *latest target projected" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749726958081261756) 2024-01-23T09:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Seriously. And she's @CBCNews' go-to economic "expert."" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1749874846593581331) 2024-01-23T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Yup replaced by "particularly the persistence in underlying inflation." IMO there's still at least one other intermediate step before a rate cut: removing this new phrase altogether. Bank of Canada on hold again. This key line had been in the past [--] statements but was conspicuously absent this time. 👀 https://t.co/AGtjCM3NA0 Bank of Canada on hold again. This key line had been in the past [--] statements but was conspicuously absent this time. 👀 https://t.co/AGtjCM3NA0" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1750248330196885658) 2024-01-24T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ugh. Spent most of the week on assessments - and none of it was even for a class that I'm teaching. - External scholarships - Colleagues' performance review - Candidates for hiring I should be doing a referee report now but I think I'll leave it to next week" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1750964150522814600) 2024-01-26T19:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Under both Trudeau's Canada's GDP per capita started deviating from its typical level compared to the US. . but in opposite directions. Will Poilievre be Canada's Reagan #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1750995725113258246) 2024-01-26T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The situation is less stark when you look at hourly wages: Canadian real wages grew only slightly slower than American ones since [----]. #cdnecon" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751013998349500782) 2024-01-26T22:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Pullthepocket @Bryan4Langara I think it's because wages behaved quite differently from GDP per capita - mostly US wages have not followed. From [----] to [----] Canada: real GDP per capita +2% real hourly wage +1% USA: real GDP per capita +13% real hourly wage +3% Probably why many Americans feel down too" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751015107620954393) 2024-01-26T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @Pullthepocket No actually. The share of US GDP paid to workers is the same in [----] as in [----]. 2pp of the gap is due to difference between CPI and GDP deflator. The rest Not sure. Seems like it could be due to more pay as bonuses stock options severances etc" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751034460064407996) 2024-01-27T00:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Real wage & productivity growth since [----] are both anemic in : 0.2%/yr. But in the while productivity has grown a solid 1.6%/yr real wage growth is only 0.7%/yr (using GDP price index; even lower using CPI). And no the share of GDP going to labour has NOT gone down" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751052338394243333) 2024-01-27T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So what is going on The data sources for employee salaries/wages in GDP reports and for hourly wages are different in the US. One difference is that the former includes other forms of pay like bonuses severance stock options etc. But have these really exploded since 2016" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751053277792489840) 2024-01-27T01:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara I'm looking at the "Wages and salaries" line in the US GDP report which excludes "supplements to wages and salaries" such as pension health insurance social security etc. Not sure what you mean by compositional issues" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751114063101538544) 2024-01-27T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara No that's what I'm saying: % of GDP is constant *excluding* the supplements. As for composition that's not it: I'm comparing to productivity (GDP per hour worked) not GDP per capita. So you don't get the denominator issue and labour composition will also affect productivity" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751116002686038343) 2024-01-27T05:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara It's a puzzle and I'm surprised not a lot has been written about it - all I could find was a blog post about bonuses/etc. Perhaps because the discrepancy has long existed but unlike now it could be explained by CPI vs. GDP deflator supplements to wages/salaries % of GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751117814377984060) 2024-01-27T05:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Supplements don't include direct payments to employees such as bonuses. (Recall: their inclusion in "wages and salaries" in GDP stats may explain some of the discrepancy with hourly pay stats.) As for healthcare etc. while that went up historically it dropped a bit lately" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751169124833927577) 2024-01-27T09:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Currently good schools charge maybe $30-60k/yr for int'l students and crap schools maybe $15-20k/yr. Importantly bad students can only get into crap schools. So if there are enough rich bad students relative to the new quota crap schools could outbid some good schools" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751351690153033979) 2024-01-27T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Or: why university admissions offices should employ some economists/statisticians in addition to education HR and management professionals. It's crazy to me that apparently many Canadian universities use high school grades "as is." All should do like Waterloo and adjust them. Claims here consistent w/ our research examining relative grades of foreign students at a large Ontario university. Grade disparities of foreign students overwhelmingly reflect graduates of Canadian not foreign high schools. https://t.co/u5kMj329iS 👉 https://t.co/Iu99PICjOr Claims here consistent w/ our research" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1751370014031335749) 2024-01-27T22:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Ugh that's so stupid. I didn't know that but I'm not surprised" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751371919532888193) 2024-01-27T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "If you add some Dec [----] to [----] growth account for lag between permit approval and activation and subtract Master's/doctoral studies 560k permits for [----] seems reasonable. -35% gives 364k. HOWEVER these stats include renewals which aren't targeted by the cap" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1752127377705206123) 2024-01-30T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Public yes. But not on StatCan. It's on that terrible Open Data website" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1752129370893025299) 2024-01-30T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Good catch - new. Will repost" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1752132677946458617) 2024-01-30T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "FWIW BC's plan was similarly vague. These announcements were just to buy more time. The real deadline is when provinces get their attestation system in place (March [--] at the latest hopefully sooner). On the blog today: a forensic account of how awful the situation in Ontario is about to become thanks to government cluelessness and sector-level obsterperousness. https://t.co/duN0wPyIV2 On the blog today: a forensic account of how awful the situation in Ontario is about to become thanks to government cluelessness and sector-level obsterperousness. https://t.co/duN0wPyIV2" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1752402310393917598) 2024-01-30T18:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "(Reposting after fixing coding error for Yorkville U) As long as cap ignores renewals only ON and BC are above it (even without deducting Master's/doctoral permits) as I had hypothesized on Monday. Maritime provs don't have much room to grow however. Hey folks - I got given this data set from a friend of this Twitter feed. It's unofficial international student visa permit numbers for [----] [----] and [----]. Includes both new approvals and extensions. Let me know if you find anything interesting https://t.co/l5lMxsJxOF Hey folks - I got given this data set from a friend of this Twitter feed. It's" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1753445428144865740) 2024-02-02T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As usual for Meredith he's spinning lacklustre performance in an overly rosy light. +$26B in real terms outside of national resource extraction sounds good. However in percentage terms that's +9.7%. Population growth from [----] to [----] = +9.9%. This excellent chart in @tylermeredith's latest piece for @TheHubCanada is a bit of a Rorschach test. I know what it actually says. I'm willing to bet that most conservatives will see it differently. https://t.co/sGjaqyVnXJ This excellent chart in @tylermeredith's latest piece for @TheHubCanada is a bit of a Rorschach test. I know what it actually says." [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1753927751097336034) 2024-02-03T23:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I disagree. The assessment is misleadingly rosy. - The graph suggests that investment is fine outside of natural resource extraction. But +26B is only +9.7% while population grew 9.9%. - Income growth and poverty rate are assessed in [----] when CERB and CEWS were in effect" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1753929989710544987) 2024-02-03T23:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Balanced interpretation: [--]. Gov't can't be held responsible for the effects of the 2014-15 drop in resource prices. [--]. Gov't is partly responsible for investment in the resource sector not recovering. YMMV whether that's desirable. [--]. Rest of economy failed to pick up the slack" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1753933264556077345) 2024-02-04T00:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Pullthepocket Real resource prices have not recovered to 2010-14 levels though (except for a brief spike in [----] due to the Russia/Ukraine war)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1753937345320260062) 2024-02-04T00:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I've tweeted quite a bit about real GDP vs real GDI as well. As the graph shows even though GDI is doing a bit better both measures are stagnant on a per capita basis. For comparison real GDI per capita grew by 7.5% from [----] to [----] in the US" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754004320998269069) 2024-02-04T04:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I disagree that the business cycle is playing a large role. Unemployment is not high now and per the BoC the economy was in excess demand until very recently. As for rapid pop growth I wonder who's been printing study and work permits as fast as diploma mills print diplomas" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754006859097481376) 2024-02-04T04:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada Not fine. The dashed blue line flattened after [----] and the graph stops in [----]. We know that the flat trend has continued since: I wouldn't go as far as saying that Canada is broken but dismissing a 10-year trend as short term is lackadaisical IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754019164904374514) 2024-02-04T05:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mikalskuterud Excellent policy prescriptions though I'd quibble with [--] things in the framing: - Treating the fertility rate as exogenous - Poland has actually had the strongest GDP PPP per capita growth in the OECD after Ireland Lithuania and Latvia" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754581102424121566) 2024-02-05T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CultySmother @vb_jens @acoyne @ryancbriggs Yeah rising poverty in 2022-23 is what I expect. Unfortunately even this projection may be too sanguine for [--] reasons: - DHEA avg HH income for lowest quintile in [----] got revised from [-----] to [-----] - MBM prices likely increased faster than overall CPI But we shall see" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754629376522797178) 2024-02-05T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This isn't even that tough - Poilievre actually said 3-year sentence which means day parole after [--] months and full parole after [--] year. Three auto theft convictions should mean three years in prison: Poilievre https://t.co/40xkcAj0sh Three auto theft convictions should mean three years in prison: Poilievre https://t.co/40xkcAj0sh" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1754761245201453331) 2024-02-06T06:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett Base CPP: 9.4%* for [--] years = 25% payout (0.64%/yr of work) CPP2: 2% for [--] years = 8.33% payout (0.21%/yr of work) BC College Pension: 20.58% for 2%/yr of work *9.9% minus basic exemption (if make [----] max). Breakeven is 9.54% so 9.05% if subtract exemption. Breakeven 1.97%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1755338768805224744) 2024-02-07T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett Yes although CPP2 might beat out college pension slightly. (Hard to compare exactly due to different number of years and CPP also has a disability component.) Base CPP is really bad because 30% of base CPP contributions are to make up for low contributions until the 1990s" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1755342896927318271) 2024-02-07T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett CPP2 and 70% of base CPP is forced saving - whether one calls it a tax is semantics. I think it's a good policy: in the long run it lowers subsidies to non-savers via GIS. But it can cause oversaving for (the few) Canadians with a very large DB pension" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1755346179112735127) 2024-02-07T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@maxfawcett @Bryan4Langara As a somewhat more palatable option (maybe) I think we could make OAS into a loan (perhaps interest-free) for homeowners payable at sale of home (actual or deemed at death). Make people choose between tax-free returns on principal residence and OAS" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1755352152078508183) 2024-02-07T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@LeoSpalteholz Victoria is indeed much less affected by the enrollment explosion at private colleges/univs than Vancouver. Still in [----] more study permits went to students at Cambria College than UVic. Cambria College 2021: [---] 2022: [---] 2023: [----] UVic 2021: [----] 2022: [----] 2023: 1389" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1755463418008703445) 2024-02-08T05:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Statcan updated provincial labour productivity stats today. For the 15-year period 2007-22 all Canadian provinces were below the US average with only BC and MB coming close. Still you might argue it's not that bad - we almost kept pace with the Midwest and the South" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756060777373692150) 2024-02-09T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "But if you Zoom in on 2019-22 the comparison is quite bad for Canada: West: +1.9%/yr Northeast: +1.9%/yr Midwest: +1.7%/yr South: +0.8%/yr Canada: +0.7%/yr At least BC did OK at +1.5%/yr" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756062358194286660) 2024-02-09T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Pau_S_Pujolas Interesting point about TFP However it doesn't seem to make much of a difference to labour productivity which includes the effect of increased capital per worker. For the 2001-2018 period your paper breaks out the CAGR is 1.01%/yr both with and without oil and gas" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756182587972985092) 2024-02-10T05:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Real total funding. If a party proposes to reverse new spending like dental care increased OAS and a raft of other smaller programs and to redirect that money to neglected basic things like health care education and justice I'd support that. Provincial/state-level support to post-secondary education ($ to institutions + $ for student financial aid) Canada vs US 2013-14 to 2023-24 (2013-14 = 100). This is a pretty stark indictment. https://t.co/cBVeZ9CivB Provincial/state-level support to post-secondary education ($ to institutions + $ for student financial aid) Canada vs US 2013-14 to 2023-24" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756209403056009462) 2024-02-10T06:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara The LFS population numbers don't say much about recent population changes. It's just some model based on past data. This month's increase was larger because it was [--] weeks instead of 4-5" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756212531130200116) 2024-02-10T07:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @greg60328592 They might be remembering what happened to the OLP (lost official party status) after Wynne went full left in [----] while in a similar situation (PCs 40s Liberals mid-20s NDP low 20s)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756571276167303172) 2024-02-11T06:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@mileslunn @Bryan4Langara @greg60328592 Just look at the [----] results in ON. Liberals and NDP tied for vote; NDP won twice as many seats" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756612232333693009) 2024-02-11T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DouglasEdward84 @Bryan4Langara Might not be the case in Vancouver. I'm guessing [--] of the [--] Liberal seats left in the projection is Surrey Newton. The other one may also be in Surrey or another South Asian heavy riding (unless it's Vancouver Centre which looks close)" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756802387296264303) 2024-02-11T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DouglasEdward84 @Bryan4Langara Even in the GTA it's probably a split between wealthy Toronto and Scarborough" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1756818538101387429) 2024-02-11T23:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Why There weren't many strikes during COVID" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1757132929975931162) 2024-02-12T20:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'd say yes if the rules didn't include the notwithstanding clause. "To fix Canada we need a strong leader willing to break the rules" Agree: 45% Disagree: 27% Neutral: 24% Ipsos / December [--] [----] / n=1000 / Online "To fix Canada we need a strong leader willing to break the rules" Agree: 45% Disagree: 27% Neutral: 24% Ipsos / December [--] [----] / n=1000 / Online" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1758208591587393735) 2024-02-15T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara No. That's why my answer would be different if the NWC didn't exist" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1758244830256472176) 2024-02-15T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Is Poilievre's strategy to say as much of this nonsense as possible before the campaign to secure his base so that he can stop with the crazy when the moderate middle starts paying attention I guess we'll find out when the campaign starts. The NDP-Liberals are all about banning. Plastics firearms cars roads you name it they want to ban it. You know what Conservatives will ban when we form government We will ban anyone who has anything to do with WEF globalists from having any role in our government. Canada https://t.co/Xe9lKEMJky The NDP-Liberals are all about banning. Plastics firearms cars" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1758981493609910649) 2024-02-17T22:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The 1/19-22 Ipsos poll tells a different story with the CPC [--] seats lower the NDP a dozen seats higher and the LPC 25-30 seats higher" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1759140208380133844) 2024-02-18T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Oh god no. Please don't tell me you're jumping on that train" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760039136805945679) 2024-02-20T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Doesn't mean earlier rate cuts would lower inflation. - A lot of the money will get spent and push up inflation on other stuff. - Mechanical effect wouldn't be that large: mortgage interest would keep rising anyway (just a bit more slowly) as renewals into higher rates continue" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760043672341749891) 2024-02-20T20:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara It mechanically contributes to CPI inflation because of Canada's CPI methodology. But it reduces inflation on other things and thus importantly upward pressures on wages by "killing everything" as you say. It's concerning. But it doesn't feed demand or restrict supply" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760047510360654084) 2024-02-20T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @trevortombe Yes it's the latter. MICI methodology is below. It estimates "the amount of mortgage interest owed" rather than just multiplying the current interest rate by the principal. So MICI would be up a lot yoy even if the BoC drops its overnight rate to say 4%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760049992805609765) 2024-02-20T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara He's using non-seasonally-adjusted data for the 3-month change" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760064501226119678) 2024-02-20T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara Well how does the Canadian Labour Congress choose its economists Yes. Prices generally increase strongly in the first half of the year and flatline thereafter. Annualized inflation July [----] to January [----] Seasonally adjusted: 2.6% Not seasonally adjusted: 0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760066006909878769) 2024-02-20T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Cadeyrnn Even if they don't want the election I just don't see why it'd make sense for the Bloc and the NDP to refrain from voting against the [----] budget. It'd only delay the election by [--] months" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760074922175693198) 2024-02-20T22:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@vb_jens @GeorgistSteve I liked the former system of CPI + 2%. If you don't want to pay a 10% real hike you have [--] years to plan your exit. Good balance between predictability and not letting people (like me) effectively squat indefinitely" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760559928887132666) 2024-02-22T06:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "BC budget: wow. $8B deficit for next [--] years then $6B. (Also $6B for year ending March 31.) But that's not what the "wow" is about. The real "wow" is the debt growing by $20B each year due to a huge splurge on capital spending. Big Q: serviced with future user fees or taxes" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760816437751644444) 2024-02-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BC's $7.9B 2024-25 budget deficit is despite revenue being a slightly higher share of GDP than [--] years ago. If expenses had increased at the same pace as nominal GDP since the 2019-20 updated forecast in the Feb. [----] budget (before any pandemic effects) they'd be $9.2B lower" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1760958504544997477) 2024-02-23T09:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also with (much needed) cuts likely coming at the federal level with Poilievre tight restraint at the provincial level as the age 75+ population explodes could be problematic. Poilievre/Eby might be a passable combination for these difficult times (see below). Hopefully" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761141687072813533) 2024-02-23T21:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yup. The majority of econ students now except maybe at elite schools can't "figure things out" anymore. We're expected to hold hands constantly. Undergraduate education is basically high school education with more advanced material. Little increased expectation of autonomy. Why teaching evaluations as a metric of quality makes education worse. [--] Usual stuff ofc: students are not equipped to eval a topic they obviously dont know. They reward likeableness and penalise toughness. Conveying knowledge or quality of teaching might be secondary. 1/7 Why teaching evaluations as a metric of quality" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761173118591385684) 2024-02-23T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara I now spend a good [--] minutes at the start of the semester explaining that they'll be made to think on problem sets and exams. But there's no getting around going super slowly in class. The math level is bad and expecting students to prepare for class by reading is unrealistic" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761281843419316729) 2024-02-24T06:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So where have all those bureaucrats been hired Comparing ministry spending on staff compensation for 2017-18 (+49.3% for nominal GDP growth) to now it looks like the main increases were: - Education - Attorney General - Health - Emergency Mgmt - Municipal Affairs and Housing" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761297505059578298) 2024-02-24T07:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @BagelPolling @CAToryFan @JaredDapena If NDP sticks with Singh and Liberals pick a "loser" Conservatives have a good shot at remaining largest party in [----]. But I think keeping a majority will be hard because the country is fundamentally in a bad situation and it'll be hard to make people happy" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761890014894674412) 2024-02-25T23:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena I think health care will keep getting worse. Productivity should improve as roadblocks for resource projects get lifted but that may not be felt much outside the Prairies and rural areas. Broadly increasing competition accelerating bureaucracy & reforming taxation is harder" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761897833760981057) 2024-02-25T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena Housing is interesting. Almost all construction started by Poilievre will not be completed in time for [----]. Poilievre's best hope is: - effectiveness of measures introduced right now by Fraser Eby and the likes - actually reducing NPR numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761898826254950459) 2024-02-25T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena We'll see how he links immigration to housing. If he merely matches population increase to housing stock increase the situation will continue to worsen (just more slowly) as adult singles+couples grow faster than total population. I'd aim for +400k PR and -200k NPR each year" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1761901960264114258) 2024-02-25T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bryan4Langara I think it's more like Ottawa stepping in removed all political incentives for Victoria to act" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1762213512896786768) 2024-02-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "All indexation formulas are based on CPI inflation except: - NS: CPI inflation +1% - SK and NT: blend of CPI inflation and average hourly wage increase" [X Link](https://x.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1762256385214177395) 2024-02-26T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@CdnElectWatch Election Watcher
Election Watcher posts on X about canada, gdp, inflation, countries the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +166%
- [--] Month [------] +451%
- [--] Months [-------] -37%
- [--] Year [-------] +1.70%
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- [--] Year [---] -58%
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- [--] Week [-----] -0.18%
- [--] Month [-----] -0.46%
- [--] Months [-----] -1.80%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries travel destinations us election currencies celebrities technology brands stocks social networks automotive brands
Social topic influence canada #2748, gdp, inflation, countries, vancouver, money, tariffs, toronto, in the, investment
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bryan4langara @prominentbryan @mileslunn @pullthepocket @bagelpolling @natfitz1 @kpthinks95 @gmwulocal @colinhi57449530 @mikepmoffatt @acoyne @denistrailin @chinonsoxobeta @pierrepoilievre @trevortombe @rayhoang30 @mikalskuterud @syntheticusalt @sivaramv @thechaosweeber
Top assets mentioned April (APRIL) Gains (GAINS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"No major news on April/May vaccine supply: first COVAX shipment announced but it's only 0.3168M doses. Big boost to Pfizer shipments but only in June - that accounts for inflection at the right of the graph. Additionally slightly revised my assumptions for May and June"
X Link 2021-04-04T07:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Recent CAN cases 9/14 No change to map Weekly change in 7-day total in non-Atlantic provinces: MB: +41% AB: +16% SK: +16% QC: +12% BC: +8% ON: -3%"
X Link 2021-09-14T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Recent CAN/US cases 9/15 US 1063k new cases 9/9-15 up 2% from last week (rebound from Labour Day testing slowdown; 2-wk change: -3%/wk) CAN map change NL gets stripes Weekly change in 7-day total in non-Atlantic provinces: MB: +45% AB: +22% QC: +19% SK: +15% BC: +4% ON: +3%"
X Link 2021-09-16T06:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Might seem like a political map at first but it's not. Above-average GDP per capita + below-average income per capita: ND NE WY TX. Likely resources boosting GDP. Below-avg GDP per capita + above-avg income per capita: OR HI RI VT ME. Likely retirement income"
X Link 2023-06-26T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mikalskuterud @mileslunn Yup but the difference is that total population growth was: 1971-84: 1.19% 1984-93: 1.27% So population growth didn't explode. The problem now isn't that 1.5+% is too high per se but that it's 50+% higher than the 1.0% we had in the previous [--] years overloading the system"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mileslunn @mikalskuterud I think the Trudeau gov't is basically trying to stabilize labour force growth forgetting that non-workers also need housing and health care"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A lot of this since Tuesday. Counterpoint: the rented accommodation index is up 5.7% and the owned acc. index is up 5.5%. So the price of owned housing services isn't overstated. Moreover both are WAY below rents on the open market so inflation is arguably grossly understated"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mikalskuterud @mileslunn I'm using July [--] (Q3) figures for 1971-84 and 1984-93. Note that there was a methodology change between Q2 and Q3 [----] which may distort your 1971-83 number. From Jan. [--] [----] to Apr. [--] [----] the compound growth rate is 1.46%/yr - your 1.18% isn't capturing the recent surge"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ethan_Lou @acoyne Kinda weird they used nominal GDP per capita instead of PPP. The Economist should know better"
X Link 2023-06-29T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PhilSmith26 @mikalskuterud At least in Vancouver the empty housing issue is somewhat moot given the big empty homes tax (and provincial vacancy tax) that we have"
X Link 2023-07-09T03:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's a useless map: currency values. It is kinda funny that rich Western countries tend to have the most valued currency units - there's no real reason for it as any country can knock off zeroes. Black market values used for . VED used for (VES co-circulating)"
X Link 2023-07-11T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For all the hand-wringing about mortgage interest costs pushing up the inflation rate total shelter actually pushes CPI-trim down. Rent control regulated utilities strong base effect for things like fuel all contribute to this. Key chart from the BoC behind today's hike to 5%. Core inflation (by various measures) has cooled but has stubbornly remained too close to 4%. https://t.co/bJs2f0puOk Key chart from the BoC behind today's hike to 5%. Core inflation (by various measures) has cooled but has stubbornly remained too close to 4%. https://t.co/bJs2f0puOk"
X Link 2023-07-12T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The BoC's forecast (July MPR) implies roughly these month-to-month seasonally adjusted inflation rates (annualized): 3.75% [----] Q3 2.25% [----] Q4 [----] BoC sees stronger current pressure than [--] months ago hence hikes to return to previous forecast's track from Q4 on. #cdnecon"
X Link 2023-07-12T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@suestroud @richardzussman @338Canada Of course - wasn't making a political point but as a numbers person I'd really appreciate journalists taking the time to understand the numbers they report"
X Link 2023-07-15T07:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SyntheticusAlt On imported goods of course. But the dollar dropped because the economy was weakening so domestic price pressures were lower. With a pegged rate we might've had high inflation before the financial crisis and below target inflation or even deflation around [----]. Both bad"
X Link 2023-08-04T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"IMO these are right except for foreign buyers (possibly significant factor in Vancouver until 2016/17 new taxes but not in most of ). Rock bottom interest rates were key in the [----] craze and there's very much a long-run supply/demand (i.e. zoning/pop growth) issue"
X Link 2023-08-04T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SiTurn62 I do think that interest rates will start to ease in [----] and the economy will start to recover in [----]. But there should be more people struggling with mortgages than now (2 more years of renewals) and the unemployment rate will likely be higher in [--] years than now"
X Link 2023-08-08T03:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@prairiecentrist @SyntheticusAlt @2closetocall Yes. If you divided the [---] seats in provinces according to population (April [--] 2023) you'd get: [-----] Atl+ON [-----] West [----] QC Based on the July [--] [----] estimates actually used for redistribution: [-----] Atl+ON [---] West [----] QC Actual: [---] Atl+ON [---] West [--] QC"
X Link 2023-08-10T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mileslunn I don't actually think a lot of boomers want to boost the value of their property through market imbalance. Simple NIMBYism is probably a bigger factor. Besides if anything wreaks havoc with housing prices it'll be interest rates not a gradual increase in supply"
X Link 2023-08-12T23:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I don't care for either the WEF or people deranged about it. But whatever. It's a sideshow. I also have problems with CBC news coverage but I think it's a lack of political diversity among its staff rather than anything nefarious. Demonizing the Canadian Press though Really"
X Link 2023-08-14T07:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@aottho You and @RichardDias_CFA should be aware that Stats Can completely changed their rent methodology in 2019: The earlier methodology grossly underestimated rent inflation as it ignored units that turned over. So Canadian CPI rent data before [----] is junk"
X Link 2023-08-16T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MikePMoffatt Otherwise gov't action as outlined in the report risks simply shifting the burden of the housing crisis around (rather than solving it) at great expense. Sadly it often feels like that's exactly what the gov't wants:"
X Link 2023-08-20T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MikePMoffatt - spend lots of money to get political cover and photo ops - not do anything that could reduce immigration due to ideology - only focus on rental/social housing to keep home prices sky high (thereby throwing middle and upper-middle class young Canadians under the bus)"
X Link 2023-08-20T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I expect the Feds to listen to the parts of the plan that involve spending $ directly (e.g. get rid of GST on purpose-built rentals cash for low-income renters). They'll pay lip service to the more crucial parts that involve incentivizing liberal zoning and fast permitting"
X Link 2023-08-26T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Life expectancy at birth (in years) [----] G7 select European countries & Canadian provinces [-----] [-----] [-----] QC [-----] [----] [----] [-----] [-----] ON [-----] [-----] BC [-----] NB [-----] [----] 🏴 [-----] NS [-----] AB [-----] MB [-----] NL [-----] SK [-----] 76.1"
X Link 2023-08-28T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sources: National statistics except Germany (Eurostat used as I could only find 3-yr averages in German nat'l stats) For countries that do not publish a combined male/female figure I took the average"
X Link 2023-08-28T17:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Dallyd31 @politicstcan The federal gov't controls the demand side of the market through immigration. Population growth was 1.0%/yr consistently under Chrtien Martin and Harper. Trudeau gov't accelerated it - we're now 1.5M people above trend - and is only now thinking about boosting supply"
X Link 2023-08-29T03:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@2closetocall @SyntheticusAlt Sometimes I ask myself that too. Then I look at home prices and interest rates and tell myself that a bigger downpayment wouldn't hurt if it comes at no or very little effort. I guess this makes me a bad Finance minister who needs to be good at spending money they don't have"
X Link 2023-08-29T07:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So if current trends continue we're probably falling 100k units more behind each year. If the feds cap the number of foreign workers/students we might need 250k net new principal residences or 275k completions each year. Things would still get worse but a lot slower"
X Link 2023-08-29T22:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If the feds actually decrease the number of foreign students by 80k per year and cap the number of foreign workers then the situation could stabilize without reducing PR targets"
X Link 2023-08-29T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some recommendations make sense but are quite obvious: - Increase workforce participation - Trade infrastructure - Efficient and predictable regulation - Review tax system - Better skills training One recommendation is highly debatable: - Increase economic immigration and"
X Link 2023-09-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The rest Gov't structures to direct entrepreneurs: - Canadian Infrastructure Development Bank - Invest in Canada Hub - Superclusters - FutureSkills Lab - "aspirational and collaborative approach" to "unleash growth in 6-8 high-potential sectors" - "advisory services" for SMEs"
X Link 2023-09-01T18:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Canada's real GDP is way below the pre-COVID trend despite population growth being above the pre-COVID trend:"
X Link 2023-09-02T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So did COVID break something in Canada that it didn't break in the US Or would a gap have opened anyway without COVID and we're only able to see through COVID perturbations now"
X Link 2023-09-02T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@0abelmolina I disagree. It's a better reflection of what people feel so a more useful political gauge but an inferior measure of economic management: - deficits artificially boost after-tax income - short-term changes in % of GDP paid as market income are mainly cyclical"
X Link 2023-09-02T18:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@0abelmolina That said the median is indeed perhaps more useful than the average. From your link we see that the 5th/6th deciles increased a total of 1-2% more than the average between [----] and [----]. That's not negligible but also not enough to make Canadian growth respectable"
X Link 2023-09-02T18:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Stockz55 @Gaulather There are certainly financial risks that may materialize in the next few quarters. But unfortunately our problems are deeper: a long-term inability to increase the productive capacity of the economy (faster than the population)"
X Link 2023-09-03T01:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Population growth 1.0%/yr under Chrtien Martin & Harper to 1.65%/yr since [----]. 0.65% of housing stock is 100k. We need about that many EXTRA new units annually. Now look at the scale on that graph. And Liberal apologists expect plaudits"
X Link 2023-09-05T07:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm going to judge ABC Vancouver on the number of housing units permitted during their term - particularly the last [--] years. For Jan-May there were 12.6% FEWER units permitted in Vancouver in [----] than in [----]. That's worse than Canada (-11.6%) BC (-4.6%) or Metro Van (+7.7%)"
X Link 2023-09-08T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"MPs think their biggest problems are communication and a lack of responsiveness to constituents. I think they're in denial. They've just done a bad job governing the country. Yes Libs have done many good things. But they committed one big mistake that takes time to repair:"
X Link 2023-09-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't think a leadership race would help the Liberals. What's popular with the Liberal base Probably more social housing more immigration and more $ for seniors and low-income people. In other words nothing to win back young middle-class voters flirting with Poilievre. #cdnpoli Thought on a Friday. Is Trudeau stepping down the only way for the Liberals to recapture the publics attention Picking a PM is a big deal it wouldnt just be another leadership race. Spark a debate about the agenda for the party and country and have all eyes on #cdnpoli Thought on a Friday. Is Trudeau stepping down"
X Link 2023-09-08T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
".@StatCan_eng posted an explanation for the population figures in the Labour Force Survey. But I'm still mystified: - From Apr [--] [----] to Apr [--] [----] the official population estimate increased by 1.21M. - From Apr [----] to Apr [----] the LFS population increased by only 620k"
X Link 2023-09-09T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sean Fraser's trial balloon about capping foreign students was prior to being floated publicly:"
X Link 2023-09-09T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@2closetocall Miller first talked about fraud but didn't mention a cap or link it to housing. Fraser then floated the idea of a cap as Housing minister. Miller now talks about "integrity of immigration system" but still downplays the link to housing"
X Link 2023-09-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BagelPolling Disagree. IIRC QC's fertility was lower than ROC's when QC started rolling out its child care program [--] years ago and there was a mini baby-boom in response to the program"
X Link 2023-09-09T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I understand that parents want to know and in most cases that's probably a good thing. But if you're a teacher and a student explains to you that they'll be disowned and kicked out if you tell their parents or that they or a parent would commit suicide what do you do"
X Link 2023-09-11T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2closetocall I think it should be treated like health information. Parents have a right to know until a child has capacity for informed consent. Then the child decides. There's no set age but [--] is way too high"
X Link 2023-09-11T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2closetocall I can see the difference between: - the school formally amending all the internal files to show your kid as a different gender and hiding it from you vs. - the kid just asks teachers one-by-one to use different pronouns because it makes them more comfortable"
X Link 2023-09-11T04:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JefferyPetts Yeah so I think there's clearly a zone where the student has good reasons for not wanting their parents to know but where it'd also be inappropriate to treat the parents as abusive. Policies like NB's are clearly not suited for such situations which I suspect are not rare"
X Link 2023-09-11T05:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nat_fitz1 You could look it up. Childcare is just about the only major Liberal policy that increases growth. Most of their other stuff - even stuff that I support - is just more spending and/or shifts growth to certain sectors without increasing it overall"
X Link 2023-09-11T21:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Sivaram_V @1689Winnipeger @mileslunn @CanadianPolling Actually a bit more due to multiplicative effect and GDP deflator differing from CPI. Nominal GDP growth last year was 10.9%"
X Link 2023-09-13T20:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$187.5M = $4.69 per Canadian I'm looking forward to my $0.05/day in savings /s Over [--] years grocers' profit margins have increased 1-2p.p. total. This is not a major factor in the 10% food inflation that we're seeing. Report - Grocery companies are expected to be summoned by the federal government over food inflation. This comes after the three biggest grocery retailers had more than $1.1 billion in profits in recent quarters Empire saw their profits increase $187.5 million (Earning $261M Report - Grocery companies are expected to be summoned by the federal government over food inflation."
X Link 2023-09-14T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@thrubeniuk @MikePMoffatt Would have to ask a lawyer - likely depends on how existing deals are written. Certainly they can insert provisions in any new deals they sign with municipalities"
X Link 2023-09-15T01:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JJ888CA @MikePMoffatt @acoyne I'm more in favour of going back to the previous rate of population growth (1%/yr). Natural growth has slowed to zero so that'd mean 400k new PRs per year. For the next few years negative growth in temporary residents and maybe somewhat lower PR targets would help"
X Link 2023-09-15T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Frankly I think we should have expensing of capital investments across the board except for non-residential buildings (as we try to solve the housing crisis) and some other small categories (supply management quotas some personal vehicles etc.)"
X Link 2023-09-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@qiaoshen1972 "Economic profit" means above the market (risk-free here since we're assuming no risk) rate of return unlike accounting profit. If you earn the market rate of return your economic profit is zero"
X Link 2023-09-15T20:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Pretty good article but I think a significant deficiency is not distinguishing between rent and purchase price. Eliminating the capital gains exemption would reduce demand for buying a home but the demand for shelter would mostly remain. I'd also argue that"
X Link 2023-09-16T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
". taxes on foreign buyers did help but they were imposed just as immigration significantly increased. In [----] & early [----] purchase prices took off in Metro Vancouver. From mid-2016 to now Metro Van purchase prices are down in real terms while rents have skyrocketed"
X Link 2023-09-16T00:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@acoyne Everybody PLEASE do some basic math. Each new housing unit requires about 2-3 man-years of work by people in new residential construction. So just to break even in [--] years there must be a construction worker for new residential buildings per 3-5 immigrant households"
X Link 2023-09-16T04:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I agree. For someone that observes policy closely (or at least more so than the average person) it might neutralize the issue but for most voters no tangible improvement probably means "another party might do better.""
X Link 2023-09-16T20:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2closetocall I think if rents drop it'll at least neutralize the issue. But that won't happen by [----] unless they do a total U-turn on immigration / foreign students - also very unlikely. As you suggest neutralizing the issue may not be enough to win. But it'd save lots of seats IMO"
X Link 2023-09-16T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2closetocall @ETito604 Miller tweeted that he became a citizen in March 2015"
X Link 2023-09-19T16:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I see how serious and mature our politicians are while the country contends with housing drug overdose and int'l relations crises. Not to mention among the worst per capita economic growth of all OECD countries in the past few years"
X Link 2023-09-21T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Total CPP assets would be about $3078 of which 50*($60-$50) = $500 would correspond to the principal and $2578 would correspond to the returns. What should AB get upon withdrawing A) If it had been separate all this time it'd have half the surplus so $1539"
X Link 2023-09-22T06:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@2closetocall Each year Canada saves $60-$50 = $10 Alberta saves $10-$5 = $5 Latter is half of former"
X Link 2023-09-22T07:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think COVID froze federal voting intentions both because voters were distracted from usual concerns and because of the temporary slowdown in immigration. But now problems are coming to a head: - housing / population growth - stagnant real incomes since [----] - health care mess"
X Link 2023-09-22T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Miller is one of my least favourite ministers. Not because he calls out Poilievre for being a serial bullshitter - he's right on that. But because his focus at immigration seems to be whatever he believes "ending racism" means rather than making the system work for Canada"
X Link 2023-09-23T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And if you want to speak of serial bullshitting just look at his/Liberal talking points on immigration: - doesn't worsen the housing crisis and suggesting that is "blaming immigrants"; - helps with the labour shortage; - aggressive increases needed due to population aging"
X Link 2023-09-23T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"US GDP growth has been solid so why the economic gloom Inflation even if incomes are rising faster (unlike in Canada) Actually. There are [--] ways to compute GDP: by expenditure and by income. The former is the official number in the US as it's considered more reliable"
X Link 2023-09-24T23:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"- Not checking whether someone that fought the Soviets in Ukraine during WWII is a Nazi or just part of the local resistance before inviting him to Parliament What's the excuse for this one We don't know high school history"
X Link 2023-09-25T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"(And yes even parts of the Ukrainian resistance that didn't join the SS had problematic links with the Nazis - might be hard to totally "clear" someone. But at least making sure the guy wasn't in the SS seems like basic due diligence.)"
X Link 2023-09-25T01:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2closetocall If you look at GDP by income there's a weird big drop in net interest payments by corporations. Not sure what's going on there since interest rates rose. But that's only 1% of GDP. We'll have to keep an eye on revisions in upcoming releases"
X Link 2023-09-25T02:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BagelPolling 40% of GFCF is far from 40% of GDP"
X Link 2023-09-25T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@GmwuLocal My theory is that the PMO didn't get involved at all. The Speaker invited the guy some gov't security agency ran a basic criminal check and that was it"
X Link 2023-09-25T18:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Suppose the gov't's line "it's all the Speaker's fault" is correct. Shouldn't the response then be "Let's establish an all-party process to vet guests that are to be recognized by the Speaker" "Let's just erase this from the record" makes you look guilty even if you aren't"
X Link 2023-09-25T21:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Oh wow big upward revision to US GDP growth from [----] to [----]. During these [--] years it was previously thought that US GDP grew 13.9% total. Today's release bumps that up to 16.0%. Total real GDP per capita growth from [----] to [----] was 18.0% (compared to 6.1% in Canada)"
X Link 2023-09-28T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Polish right/far right may have lost the election in the sense of getting fewer votes and seats than the expected centre/left coalition (43% vs 53% [---] vs [---] per exit poll) but it did quite well in votes cast from Canada (53.3% vs 43.0%)"
X Link 2023-10-16T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Apparently the Senate Finance Committee hasn't had enough of labour "shortage" inflation and substantial deficits during times of full employment. Oh yeah and let's give more money to low-income seniors and immigrants living in their $4M houses in Vancouver and Richmond"
X Link 2023-10-22T07:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BoC's forecast (October MPR) implies roughly these month-to-month seasonally adjusted inflation rates (annualized): 5% [----] Q4 (but low in Oct. due to gas prices) 2-2.5% [----] Compared to July MPR much higher inflation forecast for Q4 but similar forecast for [----]. #cdnecon"
X Link 2023-10-25T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Imagine your nat'l broadcaster @CBCNews trying to graph GDP growth and ends up graphing: : growth in real final consumption expenditure : growth in nominal GDP This is unacceptable. Do better. @armstrongcbc #cdnecon"
X Link 2023-11-04T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The website is so bad. When you click on a date it seems to show you the clinics doing vaccination on that day regardless of whether appointments are still available. You have to keep clicking clinics until you find one with availability. If all booked repeat with other date"
X Link 2023-11-04T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2022 Provincial GDP data out today. AB and SK had strong real growth (5% and 6%) and huge nominal growth given the recovery in natural resource prices. AB's GDP per capita topped $100k. Revisions to real GDP growth: 2020: -5.1% ➡ -5.0% 2021: 5.0% ➡ 5.3% 2022: 3.4% ➡ 3.8%"
X Link 2023-11-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheCDNWatch @kylejhutton I don't know if that would've gone down better frankly. Canadians just don't want to hear "helpful suggestions" about personal finance from politicians"
X Link 2023-11-20T03:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DiamondDaibhidJ Atlantic Canada is different due to the carbon tax being new this year and the heating oil situation. Here in BC we've had our provincial carbon tax since [----]. BC NDP doing well despite BCU and BC Con. vowing to axe it. Federal Liberals in the dumps"
X Link 2023-11-20T06:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DiamondDaibhidJ I'll also add that the Liberal implementation of the carbon tax and rebate was political malpractice from start to finish. Only 17% of people in the relevant provinces think they got a rebate and say it just about covers or more than covers the tax when it should be 80%"
X Link 2023-11-20T06:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Should the federal Liberals primarily: A) get credit for implementing a carbon tax or B) be blamed for poor communication about the carbon tax and/or the heating oil carve-out leading to the tax's likely long-run demise A B I oppose a carbon tax A and B balance out A B I oppose a carbon tax A and B balance out"
X Link 2023-11-20T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nat_fitz1 Not at the levels that he's proposing. US gov't spending as a % of GDP would be higher than Scandinavian countries' with all his proposed spending"
X Link 2023-11-20T19:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nat_fitz1 Well yes it's center-left in the US in case you haven't noticed. Context is important. Having no estate tax is a centrist and even centre-left position here (because we don't have one) but not in the US (because they do)"
X Link 2023-11-21T03:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nat_fitz1 Anyway I'm done with this fruitless semantic discussion. If you want to have your own definition of "left" that excludes Bernie Sanders you do you. Just don't expect others to accept it"
X Link 2023-11-21T03:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Dutch inflation numbers are wild: Latest: -0.4% Year ago: +14.3% This is largely due to energy. Excluding that: Latest: 5.1% Year ago: 6.9% The ECB increased interest rates later and less than the BoC/Fed"
X Link 2023-11-21T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3 points of GDP is a significant expansion of government: $88B in 2024-25. Since the projected deficit is $38B and carbon tax rebates are $13B had the gov't held the line on spending it could cut taxes by $37B per year and run a balanced budget in 2024-25"
X Link 2023-11-23T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SteveSaretsky @BMO Come on you should know that CPI rent index before [----] was total junk because it only counted non-turnover units"
X Link 2023-11-24T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Students are victims yes but also the millions of Canadians that need to rent at the market rate. Sean Fraser seems to have woken up somewhat to this problem (after overseeing it as Immigration Minister) but Trudeau/Freeland/Miller seem totally fine with the situation"
X Link 2023-11-24T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Making a 15-minute video about the housing situation without mentioning immigration a single time shows the Tories are bending over backwards to avoid the topic. They're probably thinking that those wanting immigration to slow will shy away from LIB/NDP anyway"
X Link 2023-12-04T04:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"High school students regressing a whole year in math since [----] matches what my colleagues and I are seeing in 100- and 200-level university courses. By the way Finnish students regressed even more and are now below American students in reading. Finland is not the answer"
X Link 2023-12-05T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is it just me or today's inflation report isn't very reassuring From July to Sept CPI (seas. adj.) excluding food and energy was up 0.5% in [--] months almost all due to housing. From Sept to Nov it's +0.8% and still +0.5% if you additionally exclude housing"
X Link 2023-12-20T01:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great thread with [--] problems affecting Canada's economy: [--]. "Vetocracy" [--]. State capacity [--]. Overlapping jurisdictions [--]. Overreliance on guest workers [--]. Risk-averse corporate culture [--]. Demographics I'd add: [--]. Unnecessary policy uncertainty As always some background: - Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries would trade our problems for theirs in a heartbeat. - This list of [--] isn't about any order of government or party. They're larger. More structural. - This isn't meant to be exhaustive. Here we go. As always some background: - Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries"
X Link 2023-12-30T22:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pullthepocket There are lots of sectors in the economy. In any given year outside of recessions it's likely that some sector is having a great year (and some other sector a poor year). That's why it's important to avoid cherry-picking"
X Link 2023-12-30T23:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Migration policies in many countries such as the USA and Switzerland are too strict. Canadians should understand that when economists from those countries push for more immigration they have in mind a low base. Canada since [----] is a cautionary tale that one can go too far. As working age populations continue to fall in high-income countries the competition will grow to be the most successful in attracting migrants. Countries who set the wrong policies now risk falling behind. https://t.co/dC6sbMjI7a As working age populations continue to fall in high-income countries the competition will"
X Link 2024-01-02T23:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ProminentDog It's still only 1% and there is probably MUCH more desire among skilled workers to immigrate to Switzerland relative to the size of the country than for Canada"
X Link 2024-01-02T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Makes sense after a holiday season where money was tight for many and Poilievre's douchebaggery wasn't at the forefront. Conservatives lead by [--] over Liberals in latest Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) poll. 🔵CPC 41% 🔴LPC 24% 🟠NDP 18% https://t.co/Ljvd7JehOH https://t.co/9IICyL8mhE Conservatives lead by [--] over Liberals in latest Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) poll. 🔵CPC 41% 🔴LPC 24% 🟠NDP 18% https://t.co/Ljvd7JehOH https://t.co/9IICyL8mhE"
X Link 2024-01-11T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'll live-tweet the Taiwanese presidential and legislative election tonight. Polls close at midnight PT (3am ET). Please go find my thread from Jan [--] if you wish to see where things stand. (No retweet: no polling analysis may be disseminated during the 10-day blackout period.)"
X Link 2024-01-12T22:10Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"In Taiwan the vote counting is completely public: anyone can attend it and every single ballot must be shown to those present. Therefore TV stations post employees at many polling stations to count votes as they are counted and before they are officially reported"
X Link 2024-01-12T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This election could have important ramifications. If Lai (DPP) wins relations with China could worsen further as Lai is thought to be even more anti-China and less careful with his words than the time-limited incumbent Tsai (DPP). Lai has vowed to continue Tsai's China policy"
X Link 2024-01-12T22:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"If Hou (KMT) wins relations with China would improve overnight. But Hou is not as warm toward China as Ma (KMT President 2008-16) who said this week that for cross-strait relations Taiwan has no choice but to trust Xi Jinping. KMT cancelled Ma's last campaign appearance"
X Link 2024-01-12T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The US and many Taiwanese voters likely have concerns about both Lai and Hou: Lai has the potential to drag the US into WWIII (unlikely but possible) while Hou may be friendlier toward China than the US would like. Both candidates have sought to allay these concerns"
X Link 2024-01-12T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In the short run a Lai win is more likely than a Hou win to impact the US election if China reacts aggressively. In the medium run a Lai/Trump configuration could lead to years of instability in East Asia which produces much of the world's advanced electronics"
X Link 2024-01-12T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As for domestic issues the major themes in Taiwan are: - stagnating wages (despite enviable economic growth from a Canadian perspective) - high cost of housing esp. buying (rent-to-income ratio in Taipei similar to Vancouver but price-to-income ratio much higher) - corruption"
X Link 2024-01-12T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"16:20 #Taiwan time SET 310k Lai (DPP anti-China) 221k Hou (KMT pro-dtente) 226k Ko (TPP anti-establishment) EBC 281k Lai 239k Hou 257k Ko TVBS 360k Lai 311k Hou 302k Ko CTV 57k Lai 51k Hou 52k Ko #TaiwanElection #TaiwanElections #"
X Link 2024-01-13T08:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ProminentDog This poll that you quote shows that only 28% of Americans think illegal immigration is acceptable much lower than the 53% that disagree with the "poison the blood" statement. That supports my point"
X Link 2024-01-15T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I maintain that CERB should've been in the form of forgivable loans. Enter the amount you need but you'll have to pay some or all of it back with your [----] tax return unless you meet certain conditions. There. Wasn't. Time. To. Put. In. Controls. Do people not remember what was going on in March and April of [----] The choice was to wait months/years to put together a leak-proof income support program or to shovel $$ out the door ASAP. Option #2 was the right call. There. Wasn't. Time. To. Put. In. Controls. Do people not remember what was going on in March and April of [----] The choice was to"
X Link 2024-01-17T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Immigration is a huge issue for housing affordability and many other things but we should all keep in that even then it doesn't come close to explaining the massive difference in GDP per capita growth. I know the policy discussion about the CA/US CDP gap today is all about immigration BUT how much does the spread that emerged before [----] reflect of the stall-out of Canada's previous economic engine Alberta https://t.co/xX5f5oYGiF I know the policy discussion about the CA/US CDP gap today is all about immigration BUT how much does the spread that emerged before [----] reflect of the stall-out of"
X Link 2024-01-18T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Between [----] and 2023: - US GDP per capita gained [----] log points relative to Canada - Canada pop gained [---] log points relative to US So if recent immigrants contribute [--] to GDP it'd be 70% of the gap. But if they contribute 50% of the avg. to GDP it'd be 35%"
X Link 2024-01-20T01:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Talk about tone-deafness. [----] is off to a good start. https://t.co/CISXqJAdWz [----] is off to a good start. https://t.co/CISXqJAdWz"
X Link 2024-01-20T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The OECD seems to have just done a big revision of its recent PPP conversion rates making the US look much worse. The new data shows that 's GDP PPP per capita was at 80.5% of the level in [----] and 80.4% in [----]. This seems to contradict national stats. #cdnecon"
X Link 2024-01-21T08:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Eh [----] will be ugly anyway. US is around +2% while Canada is around -2% without terms of trade and -4% with terms of trade. So even with no gap between [----] and [----] there will be a huge gap in 2023"
X Link 2024-01-21T08:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"However that does not mean is doing well. For example Australia was 5% richer than us in 2017; in [----] the gap was 16%. Overall we're still ranked #26 of [--] for 5-year growth. And this is before [----] which was really bad for both GDP per capita and terms of trade in "
X Link 2024-01-21T08:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Among countries ahead of Canada only Luxembourg and Germany failed to outpace Canada in GDP PPP per capita growth from [----] to [----]. Both of those are close and may reverse after [----] data comes out. So we're falling further behind our erstwhile peer countries"
X Link 2024-01-21T08:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara This. Canadian stats show real GDP per capita increasing 2% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 6.3%. US stats show real GDP per capita increasing 9% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 10%. Somehow that 6.3% vs. 10% gap vanishes with OECD PPPs. Canadian stats show real GDP per capita increasing 2% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 6.3%. US stats show real GDP per capita increasing 9% from [----] to [----] and real GDI per capita increasing 10%. Somehow that 6.3% vs. 10% gap vanishes with OECD PPPs"
X Link 2024-01-21T08:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheresaLubowitz The child care plan will help somewhat but pre-pandemic only 32% of people in poverty were in families with children under [--]. (It was even lower 30% in 2021.) Also people in poverty are less likely to be working full-time and have high child care expenses"
X Link 2024-01-21T21:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheresaLubowitz As for the dental care plan it will have an impact on [----] data but that won't come out before the next election. [----] and [----] numbers could be quite ugly since inflation on rent and food outpaced overall inflation"
X Link 2024-01-21T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If BC study permits for the coming academic year drop by 50k the Greater Vancouver rental market will cool a lot. It could turn altogether depending on the broader economy and what happens with foreign workers. If rents pull back will Liberal fortunes bounce back (a bit) Study Permits Est. allocation (2022 total * Pop share); [----] Dec to [----] Nov NL 7318; [----] PE 2381; [----] NS 14440; [-----] NB 11411; [-----] QC 121170; [-----] ON 213968; [------] MB 19843; [-----] SK 16506; [-----] AB 64405; [-----] BC 75573; [------] Terr. 1770; [---] Study Permits Est. allocation (2022 total * Pop share); [----] Dec to 2023"
X Link 2024-01-21T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kpthinks95 @Bryan4Langara I doubt it unless the drop is huge which seems unlikely: it wouldn't affect cash flow unless the recent buyer needs to sell"
X Link 2024-01-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Canada may or may not be in a recession but on a per capita basis purchasing power is dropping fast. Change in real GDI per capita over [--] years worst episodes since [----] 2014-16: -2.9% 1980-82: -3.8% 1989-91: -5.5% 2007-09: -5.8% 2022-24: -6% to -7% (forecast) 2018-20: -6.9%"
X Link 2024-01-22T01:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ray_hoang30 @SyntheticusAlt Change in real GDP per capita over [--] years worst episodes since [----] 2014-16: -0.2% 1980-82: -2.8% 2022-24: -3% to -4% (forecast) 2007-09: -4.1% 1989-91: -4.6% 2018-20: -5.7%"
X Link 2024-01-22T01:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ray_hoang30 You have to wonder about other factors though since it's not that bad for any other Western province"
X Link 2024-01-22T08:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Joe_Canadian20 @Bryan4Langara That's just India. Policy sorely needed Total (India) YoY chg Applications processed July: +31% (-12%) Aug: -9% (-44%) Sept: -21% (-51%) Oct: [--] (-42%) Nov: +11% (-28%) Permits newly effective July: +48% (+38%) Aug: +42% (+72%) Sept: +7% (-21%) Oct: +6% (-14%) Nov: +28% (+32%)"
X Link 2024-01-23T06:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @Joe_Canadian20 We're in a budget crunch already bc of reliance on : new students to by 1/3 in [----] & never recovered. used to be 1% of all entering students for us. It to 5% in 2020-21 but back to 3%. Not sure why but maybe admins responded responsibly to low quality"
X Link 2024-01-23T07:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @Joe_Canadian20 I don't think it's that bad. We're still hiring new faculty this year and I imagine the cap will have no effect on us since we're already at the lowest in [--] years. Many private colleges are gonna get killed. What will happen to public colleges like yours"
X Link 2024-01-23T07:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Canadian Immigration 2020-23 PR Targets in [----] 2020: 341k 2021: 351k 2022: 361k 2023: 371k extrapolated Tot.: 1424k Actual PR + non-asylum NPR 2020: 185k-96k = 89k 2021: 406k+77k = 483k 2022: 438k+500k = 938k 2023: 465k*+750k = 1315k Tot.: 2825k *latest target projected"
X Link 2024-01-23T09:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Seriously. And she's @CBCNews' go-to economic "expert.""
X Link 2024-01-23T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yup replaced by "particularly the persistence in underlying inflation." IMO there's still at least one other intermediate step before a rate cut: removing this new phrase altogether. Bank of Canada on hold again. This key line had been in the past [--] statements but was conspicuously absent this time. 👀 https://t.co/AGtjCM3NA0 Bank of Canada on hold again. This key line had been in the past [--] statements but was conspicuously absent this time. 👀 https://t.co/AGtjCM3NA0"
X Link 2024-01-24T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ugh. Spent most of the week on assessments - and none of it was even for a class that I'm teaching. - External scholarships - Colleagues' performance review - Candidates for hiring I should be doing a referee report now but I think I'll leave it to next week"
X Link 2024-01-26T19:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Under both Trudeau's Canada's GDP per capita started deviating from its typical level compared to the US. . but in opposite directions. Will Poilievre be Canada's Reagan #cdnecon"
X Link 2024-01-26T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The situation is less stark when you look at hourly wages: Canadian real wages grew only slightly slower than American ones since [----]. #cdnecon"
X Link 2024-01-26T22:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pullthepocket @Bryan4Langara I think it's because wages behaved quite differently from GDP per capita - mostly US wages have not followed. From [----] to [----] Canada: real GDP per capita +2% real hourly wage +1% USA: real GDP per capita +13% real hourly wage +3% Probably why many Americans feel down too"
X Link 2024-01-26T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @Pullthepocket No actually. The share of US GDP paid to workers is the same in [----] as in [----]. 2pp of the gap is due to difference between CPI and GDP deflator. The rest Not sure. Seems like it could be due to more pay as bonuses stock options severances etc"
X Link 2024-01-27T00:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Real wage & productivity growth since [----] are both anemic in : 0.2%/yr. But in the while productivity has grown a solid 1.6%/yr real wage growth is only 0.7%/yr (using GDP price index; even lower using CPI). And no the share of GDP going to labour has NOT gone down"
X Link 2024-01-27T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So what is going on The data sources for employee salaries/wages in GDP reports and for hourly wages are different in the US. One difference is that the former includes other forms of pay like bonuses severance stock options etc. But have these really exploded since 2016"
X Link 2024-01-27T01:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara I'm looking at the "Wages and salaries" line in the US GDP report which excludes "supplements to wages and salaries" such as pension health insurance social security etc. Not sure what you mean by compositional issues"
X Link 2024-01-27T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara No that's what I'm saying: % of GDP is constant excluding the supplements. As for composition that's not it: I'm comparing to productivity (GDP per hour worked) not GDP per capita. So you don't get the denominator issue and labour composition will also affect productivity"
X Link 2024-01-27T05:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara It's a puzzle and I'm surprised not a lot has been written about it - all I could find was a blog post about bonuses/etc. Perhaps because the discrepancy has long existed but unlike now it could be explained by CPI vs. GDP deflator supplements to wages/salaries % of GDP"
X Link 2024-01-27T05:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Supplements don't include direct payments to employees such as bonuses. (Recall: their inclusion in "wages and salaries" in GDP stats may explain some of the discrepancy with hourly pay stats.) As for healthcare etc. while that went up historically it dropped a bit lately"
X Link 2024-01-27T09:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Currently good schools charge maybe $30-60k/yr for int'l students and crap schools maybe $15-20k/yr. Importantly bad students can only get into crap schools. So if there are enough rich bad students relative to the new quota crap schools could outbid some good schools"
X Link 2024-01-27T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Or: why university admissions offices should employ some economists/statisticians in addition to education HR and management professionals. It's crazy to me that apparently many Canadian universities use high school grades "as is." All should do like Waterloo and adjust them. Claims here consistent w/ our research examining relative grades of foreign students at a large Ontario university. Grade disparities of foreign students overwhelmingly reflect graduates of Canadian not foreign high schools. https://t.co/u5kMj329iS 👉 https://t.co/Iu99PICjOr Claims here consistent w/ our research"
X Link 2024-01-27T22:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Ugh that's so stupid. I didn't know that but I'm not surprised"
X Link 2024-01-27T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"If you add some Dec [----] to [----] growth account for lag between permit approval and activation and subtract Master's/doctoral studies 560k permits for [----] seems reasonable. -35% gives 364k. HOWEVER these stats include renewals which aren't targeted by the cap"
X Link 2024-01-30T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Public yes. But not on StatCan. It's on that terrible Open Data website"
X Link 2024-01-30T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Good catch - new. Will repost"
X Link 2024-01-30T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"FWIW BC's plan was similarly vague. These announcements were just to buy more time. The real deadline is when provinces get their attestation system in place (March [--] at the latest hopefully sooner). On the blog today: a forensic account of how awful the situation in Ontario is about to become thanks to government cluelessness and sector-level obsterperousness. https://t.co/duN0wPyIV2 On the blog today: a forensic account of how awful the situation in Ontario is about to become thanks to government cluelessness and sector-level obsterperousness. https://t.co/duN0wPyIV2"
X Link 2024-01-30T18:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"(Reposting after fixing coding error for Yorkville U) As long as cap ignores renewals only ON and BC are above it (even without deducting Master's/doctoral permits) as I had hypothesized on Monday. Maritime provs don't have much room to grow however. Hey folks - I got given this data set from a friend of this Twitter feed. It's unofficial international student visa permit numbers for [----] [----] and [----]. Includes both new approvals and extensions. Let me know if you find anything interesting https://t.co/l5lMxsJxOF Hey folks - I got given this data set from a friend of this Twitter feed. It's"
X Link 2024-02-02T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As usual for Meredith he's spinning lacklustre performance in an overly rosy light. +$26B in real terms outside of national resource extraction sounds good. However in percentage terms that's +9.7%. Population growth from [----] to [----] = +9.9%. This excellent chart in @tylermeredith's latest piece for @TheHubCanada is a bit of a Rorschach test. I know what it actually says. I'm willing to bet that most conservatives will see it differently. https://t.co/sGjaqyVnXJ This excellent chart in @tylermeredith's latest piece for @TheHubCanada is a bit of a Rorschach test. I know what it actually says."
X Link 2024-02-03T23:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I disagree. The assessment is misleadingly rosy. - The graph suggests that investment is fine outside of natural resource extraction. But +26B is only +9.7% while population grew 9.9%. - Income growth and poverty rate are assessed in [----] when CERB and CEWS were in effect"
X Link 2024-02-03T23:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Balanced interpretation: [--]. Gov't can't be held responsible for the effects of the 2014-15 drop in resource prices. [--]. Gov't is partly responsible for investment in the resource sector not recovering. YMMV whether that's desirable. [--]. Rest of economy failed to pick up the slack"
X Link 2024-02-04T00:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pullthepocket Real resource prices have not recovered to 2010-14 levels though (except for a brief spike in [----] due to the Russia/Ukraine war)"
X Link 2024-02-04T00:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I've tweeted quite a bit about real GDP vs real GDI as well. As the graph shows even though GDI is doing a bit better both measures are stagnant on a per capita basis. For comparison real GDI per capita grew by 7.5% from [----] to [----] in the US"
X Link 2024-02-04T04:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada I disagree that the business cycle is playing a large role. Unemployment is not high now and per the BoC the economy was in excess demand until very recently. As for rapid pop growth I wonder who's been printing study and work permits as fast as diploma mills print diplomas"
X Link 2024-02-04T04:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@priorconfirmed @trevortombe @tylermeredith @TheHubCanada Not fine. The dashed blue line flattened after [----] and the graph stops in [----]. We know that the flat trend has continued since: I wouldn't go as far as saying that Canada is broken but dismissing a 10-year trend as short term is lackadaisical IMO"
X Link 2024-02-04T05:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mikalskuterud Excellent policy prescriptions though I'd quibble with [--] things in the framing: - Treating the fertility rate as exogenous - Poland has actually had the strongest GDP PPP per capita growth in the OECD after Ireland Lithuania and Latvia"
X Link 2024-02-05T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CultySmother @vb_jens @acoyne @ryancbriggs Yeah rising poverty in 2022-23 is what I expect. Unfortunately even this projection may be too sanguine for [--] reasons: - DHEA avg HH income for lowest quintile in [----] got revised from [-----] to [-----] - MBM prices likely increased faster than overall CPI But we shall see"
X Link 2024-02-05T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This isn't even that tough - Poilievre actually said 3-year sentence which means day parole after [--] months and full parole after [--] year. Three auto theft convictions should mean three years in prison: Poilievre https://t.co/40xkcAj0sh Three auto theft convictions should mean three years in prison: Poilievre https://t.co/40xkcAj0sh"
X Link 2024-02-06T06:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett Base CPP: 9.4%* for [--] years = 25% payout (0.64%/yr of work) CPP2: 2% for [--] years = 8.33% payout (0.21%/yr of work) BC College Pension: 20.58% for 2%/yr of work *9.9% minus basic exemption (if make [----] max). Breakeven is 9.54% so 9.05% if subtract exemption. Breakeven 1.97%"
X Link 2024-02-07T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett Yes although CPP2 might beat out college pension slightly. (Hard to compare exactly due to different number of years and CPP also has a disability component.) Base CPP is really bad because 30% of base CPP contributions are to make up for low contributions until the 1990s"
X Link 2024-02-07T21:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @maxfawcett CPP2 and 70% of base CPP is forced saving - whether one calls it a tax is semantics. I think it's a good policy: in the long run it lowers subsidies to non-savers via GIS. But it can cause oversaving for (the few) Canadians with a very large DB pension"
X Link 2024-02-07T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@maxfawcett @Bryan4Langara As a somewhat more palatable option (maybe) I think we could make OAS into a loan (perhaps interest-free) for homeowners payable at sale of home (actual or deemed at death). Make people choose between tax-free returns on principal residence and OAS"
X Link 2024-02-07T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@LeoSpalteholz Victoria is indeed much less affected by the enrollment explosion at private colleges/univs than Vancouver. Still in [----] more study permits went to students at Cambria College than UVic. Cambria College 2021: [---] 2022: [---] 2023: [----] UVic 2021: [----] 2022: [----] 2023: 1389"
X Link 2024-02-08T05:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Statcan updated provincial labour productivity stats today. For the 15-year period 2007-22 all Canadian provinces were below the US average with only BC and MB coming close. Still you might argue it's not that bad - we almost kept pace with the Midwest and the South"
X Link 2024-02-09T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"But if you Zoom in on 2019-22 the comparison is quite bad for Canada: West: +1.9%/yr Northeast: +1.9%/yr Midwest: +1.7%/yr South: +0.8%/yr Canada: +0.7%/yr At least BC did OK at +1.5%/yr"
X Link 2024-02-09T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pau_S_Pujolas Interesting point about TFP However it doesn't seem to make much of a difference to labour productivity which includes the effect of increased capital per worker. For the 2001-2018 period your paper breaks out the CAGR is 1.01%/yr both with and without oil and gas"
X Link 2024-02-10T05:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Real total funding. If a party proposes to reverse new spending like dental care increased OAS and a raft of other smaller programs and to redirect that money to neglected basic things like health care education and justice I'd support that. Provincial/state-level support to post-secondary education ($ to institutions + $ for student financial aid) Canada vs US 2013-14 to 2023-24 (2013-14 = 100). This is a pretty stark indictment. https://t.co/cBVeZ9CivB Provincial/state-level support to post-secondary education ($ to institutions + $ for student financial aid) Canada vs US 2013-14 to 2023-24"
X Link 2024-02-10T06:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara The LFS population numbers don't say much about recent population changes. It's just some model based on past data. This month's increase was larger because it was [--] weeks instead of 4-5"
X Link 2024-02-10T07:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @greg60328592 They might be remembering what happened to the OLP (lost official party status) after Wynne went full left in [----] while in a similar situation (PCs 40s Liberals mid-20s NDP low 20s)"
X Link 2024-02-11T06:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@mileslunn @Bryan4Langara @greg60328592 Just look at the [----] results in ON. Liberals and NDP tied for vote; NDP won twice as many seats"
X Link 2024-02-11T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DouglasEdward84 @Bryan4Langara Might not be the case in Vancouver. I'm guessing [--] of the [--] Liberal seats left in the projection is Surrey Newton. The other one may also be in Surrey or another South Asian heavy riding (unless it's Vancouver Centre which looks close)"
X Link 2024-02-11T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DouglasEdward84 @Bryan4Langara Even in the GTA it's probably a split between wealthy Toronto and Scarborough"
X Link 2024-02-11T23:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Why There weren't many strikes during COVID"
X Link 2024-02-12T20:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'd say yes if the rules didn't include the notwithstanding clause. "To fix Canada we need a strong leader willing to break the rules" Agree: 45% Disagree: 27% Neutral: 24% Ipsos / December [--] [----] / n=1000 / Online "To fix Canada we need a strong leader willing to break the rules" Agree: 45% Disagree: 27% Neutral: 24% Ipsos / December [--] [----] / n=1000 / Online"
X Link 2024-02-15T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara No. That's why my answer would be different if the NWC didn't exist"
X Link 2024-02-15T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Is Poilievre's strategy to say as much of this nonsense as possible before the campaign to secure his base so that he can stop with the crazy when the moderate middle starts paying attention I guess we'll find out when the campaign starts. The NDP-Liberals are all about banning. Plastics firearms cars roads you name it they want to ban it. You know what Conservatives will ban when we form government We will ban anyone who has anything to do with WEF globalists from having any role in our government. Canada https://t.co/Xe9lKEMJky The NDP-Liberals are all about banning. Plastics firearms cars"
X Link 2024-02-17T22:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 1/19-22 Ipsos poll tells a different story with the CPC [--] seats lower the NDP a dozen seats higher and the LPC 25-30 seats higher"
X Link 2024-02-18T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Oh god no. Please don't tell me you're jumping on that train"
X Link 2024-02-20T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Doesn't mean earlier rate cuts would lower inflation. - A lot of the money will get spent and push up inflation on other stuff. - Mechanical effect wouldn't be that large: mortgage interest would keep rising anyway (just a bit more slowly) as renewals into higher rates continue"
X Link 2024-02-20T20:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara It mechanically contributes to CPI inflation because of Canada's CPI methodology. But it reduces inflation on other things and thus importantly upward pressures on wages by "killing everything" as you say. It's concerning. But it doesn't feed demand or restrict supply"
X Link 2024-02-20T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @trevortombe Yes it's the latter. MICI methodology is below. It estimates "the amount of mortgage interest owed" rather than just multiplying the current interest rate by the principal. So MICI would be up a lot yoy even if the BoC drops its overnight rate to say 4%"
X Link 2024-02-20T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara He's using non-seasonally-adjusted data for the 3-month change"
X Link 2024-02-20T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara Well how does the Canadian Labour Congress choose its economists Yes. Prices generally increase strongly in the first half of the year and flatline thereafter. Annualized inflation July [----] to January [----] Seasonally adjusted: 2.6% Not seasonally adjusted: 0.3%"
X Link 2024-02-20T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Cadeyrnn Even if they don't want the election I just don't see why it'd make sense for the Bloc and the NDP to refrain from voting against the [----] budget. It'd only delay the election by [--] months"
X Link 2024-02-20T22:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@vb_jens @GeorgistSteve I liked the former system of CPI + 2%. If you don't want to pay a 10% real hike you have [--] years to plan your exit. Good balance between predictability and not letting people (like me) effectively squat indefinitely"
X Link 2024-02-22T06:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BC budget: wow. $8B deficit for next [--] years then $6B. (Also $6B for year ending March 31.) But that's not what the "wow" is about. The real "wow" is the debt growing by $20B each year due to a huge splurge on capital spending. Big Q: serviced with future user fees or taxes"
X Link 2024-02-22T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BC's $7.9B 2024-25 budget deficit is despite revenue being a slightly higher share of GDP than [--] years ago. If expenses had increased at the same pace as nominal GDP since the 2019-20 updated forecast in the Feb. [----] budget (before any pandemic effects) they'd be $9.2B lower"
X Link 2024-02-23T09:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also with (much needed) cuts likely coming at the federal level with Poilievre tight restraint at the provincial level as the age 75+ population explodes could be problematic. Poilievre/Eby might be a passable combination for these difficult times (see below). Hopefully"
X Link 2024-02-23T21:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yup. The majority of econ students now except maybe at elite schools can't "figure things out" anymore. We're expected to hold hands constantly. Undergraduate education is basically high school education with more advanced material. Little increased expectation of autonomy. Why teaching evaluations as a metric of quality makes education worse. [--] Usual stuff ofc: students are not equipped to eval a topic they obviously dont know. They reward likeableness and penalise toughness. Conveying knowledge or quality of teaching might be secondary. 1/7 Why teaching evaluations as a metric of quality"
X Link 2024-02-23T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara I now spend a good [--] minutes at the start of the semester explaining that they'll be made to think on problem sets and exams. But there's no getting around going super slowly in class. The math level is bad and expecting students to prepare for class by reading is unrealistic"
X Link 2024-02-24T06:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So where have all those bureaucrats been hired Comparing ministry spending on staff compensation for 2017-18 (+49.3% for nominal GDP growth) to now it looks like the main increases were: - Education - Attorney General - Health - Emergency Mgmt - Municipal Affairs and Housing"
X Link 2024-02-24T07:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @BagelPolling @CAToryFan @JaredDapena If NDP sticks with Singh and Liberals pick a "loser" Conservatives have a good shot at remaining largest party in [----]. But I think keeping a majority will be hard because the country is fundamentally in a bad situation and it'll be hard to make people happy"
X Link 2024-02-25T23:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena I think health care will keep getting worse. Productivity should improve as roadblocks for resource projects get lifted but that may not be felt much outside the Prairies and rural areas. Broadly increasing competition accelerating bureaucracy & reforming taxation is harder"
X Link 2024-02-25T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena Housing is interesting. Almost all construction started by Poilievre will not be completed in time for [----]. Poilievre's best hope is: - effectiveness of measures introduced right now by Fraser Eby and the likes - actually reducing NPR numbers"
X Link 2024-02-25T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BagelPolling @Bryan4Langara @mileslunn @CAToryFan @JaredDapena We'll see how he links immigration to housing. If he merely matches population increase to housing stock increase the situation will continue to worsen (just more slowly) as adult singles+couples grow faster than total population. I'd aim for +400k PR and -200k NPR each year"
X Link 2024-02-25T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bryan4Langara I think it's more like Ottawa stepping in removed all political incentives for Victoria to act"
X Link 2024-02-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"All indexation formulas are based on CPI inflation except: - NS: CPI inflation +1% - SK and NT: blend of CPI inflation and average hourly wage increase"
X Link 2024-02-26T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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