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# ![@CFBNerds Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::42973924.png) @CFBNerds College Football Nerds

College football analysts and enthusiasts are discussing the flaws in ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) metric, which overranks undefeated teams with weak schedules. Critics argue that the formula is mathematically flawed, citing examples of teams like BYU and Navy being ranked high despite having weak schedules. This has led to debates about the best way to evaluate teams, with some suggesting that metrics like winning percentage and strength of schedule should be given more weight.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::42973924/interactions)
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- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +151%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +5.30%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::42973924/posts_active)
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- X Month XXX +30%
- X Months XXXXX +45%
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### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::42973924/followers)
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- X Week XXXXXX +0.17%
- X Month XXXXXX +12%
- X Months XXXXXX +44%
- X Year XXXXXX +52%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::42973924/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::42973924/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[ncaa football](/list/ncaa-football)  #887 [finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [ncaa basketball](/list/ncaa-basketball)  #2408

**Social topic influence**
[college football](/topic/college-football) #157, [notre dame](/topic/notre-dame) #197, [cfp](/topic/cfp) #300, [number of](/topic/number-of) 1.84%, [ole miss](/topic/ole-miss) 1.23%, [level](/topic/level) 1.23%, [old dominion](/topic/old-dominion) 1.23%, [big 12](/topic/big-12) #129, [texas tech](/topic/texas-tech) 1.23%, [if you](/topic/if-you) XXXX%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@johnclampittfb](/creator/undefined) [@kberg43](/creator/undefined) [@toddfoxtrot](/creator/undefined) [@coachbeaumont](/creator/undefined) [@zfieb12](/creator/undefined) [@sicily_t_](/creator/undefined) [@therealonekd1](/creator/undefined) [@clarky07](/creator/undefined) [@johnscaer](/creator/undefined) [@patsfanjp](/creator/undefined) [@magaisdum](/creator/undefined) [@peterdactyll](/creator/undefined) [@petefiutak](/creator/undefined) [@biiggtoe](/creator/undefined) [@patsfan_jp](/creator/undefined) [@kelseyc22323266](/creator/undefined) [@liamtuc43138389](/creator/undefined) [@maddened67](/creator/undefined) [@willic01](/creator/undefined) [@timlovejoy9](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"How Washington Huskies coaching staff envisions the most optimal use for defensive ends in crucial situations apparently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1994888234413797679)  2025-11-29T21:56Z 54.2K followers, 8747 engagements


"@SBLII2017 Wed be dropping Alabama or Notre Dame for a team that already lost 45-10 to Ole Miss or 28-14 to Louisville. These particular G5 teams will not be competitive at this level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1995274008049115616)  2025-11-30T23:29Z 54.2K followers, 3732 engagements


"UM beat X Sagarin top XX Bama beat X And Miami lost to SMU Alabama beat Tennessee LSU Auburn and South Carolina. Using Sagarin for SMU (#21) also validates Auburn (#26) as a good win for Alabama though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1996594198343004397)  2025-12-04T14:55Z 54.2K followers, 49.4K engagements


"@EP3080283895010 Bama is currently favored in their first round matchup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997734171167568258)  2025-12-07T18:25Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"We gave the guys with the Harvard MBAs control of CFB and they took their private equity mindset and created conference expansion maximizing profit while showing borderline contempt for its customer and product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1995147417013113138)  2025-11-30T15:06Z 54.2K followers, 21.2K engagements


"Yes 4/5 stars were going to Oregon or Notre Dame or OSU or Michigan or USC for free turning down offers and bags at SEC schools where they were also getting better odds to win a title. Now B1G schools are out spending everybody. Guess they ran out of players like those they used to find willing to just play for the love of the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998560575618420776)  2025-12-10T01:09Z 54.2K followers, 63.2K engagements


"Indiana football's first X weeks of the CFB regular season: - Old Dominion - Kennesaw St - Indiana St IU's final X weeks: - Wisconsin - Bye - Purdue But they got strong opinions about your one weekend in November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1994596156576321964)  2025-11-29T02:35Z 54.2K followers, 751.6K engagements


"@jrs_rankings Indiana has played X ranked teams in two seasons combined. 1/3 of the bowl eligible teams they beat were Kennesaw St and Old Dominion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1995856185254445183)  2025-12-02T14:02Z 54.2K followers, 7401 engagements


"The irony here is crazy. We spent YEARS arguing with G5 people that NIL wasn't going to make the G5 more competitive and would in fact do the opposite turning them into feeders. Now that we're proven right they want more CFP access because blind hope springs eternal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998503703511523371)  2025-12-09T21:23Z 54.2K followers, 27.1K engagements


"People always want to say "if we aren't included we can't grow" But being included and losing badly is going to make you look less attractive than beating an unmotivated flawed also-ran P4 team in a bowl. Same as how UCF and Houston are doing worse for joining the Big 12"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998504387405042001)  2025-12-09T21:25Z 54.2K followers, 3075 engagements


"@aManwithTakes College basketball isnt college football"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998740847483912673)  2025-12-10T13:05Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"What three 2025 Big Ten out of conference games impressed you the most in terms of proving quality What three games make you question them the most"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998751469621661953)  2025-12-10T13:47Z 54.2K followers, 4240 engagements


"UVA's "OOC" P4 opponent was actually an ACC team NC State who they lost to but it doesn't count in the official standings. (They had to scramble to get an opponent after Indiana canceled and replaced UVA with Kennesaw St)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1995146845006545178)  2025-11-30T15:04Z 54.2K followers, 10.2K engagements


"Mathematically playing 2025 Auburn XX times would have given Notre Dame the #1 SOS in the country. Currently theirs is 42nd. Theyd have a considerably lower probability of going 10-2 with such a schedule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1996053902601388323)  2025-12-03T03:08Z 54.2K followers, 364.2K engagements


"@NMTC_Hoops The teams that left the Group of Five You say this like the G5 has some inherent right to exist as a separate immutable entity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998382612981711099)  2025-12-09T13:21Z 54.2K followers, 1139 engagements


"Turnabout is fair play: What about the SEC Or the ACC Or the Big XX Only rule - you must name sets of three"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998751473107390878)  2025-12-10T13:47Z 54.2K followers, 2227 engagements


"@BudElliott3 We've disagreed on many things and on many occasions it was due to you DEFENDING G5 teams. But there's a big distinction between including a 2024 Boise State and a 2025 Tulane that many are missing. XX Boise proved they belonged in the season. XX Tulane proved they don't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998794777219969439)  2025-12-10T16:39Z 54.2K followers, 3029 engagements


"All you "never left cable" luddites acting like there's never a carriage dispute there. Greed finds the consumer wherever they may hide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1984638606615441889)  2025-11-01T15:08Z 54.2K followers, 9730 engagements


"Pitt Football:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1989780677244690497)  2025-11-15T19:40Z 54.2K followers, 7759 engagements


"The College Football Playoff Committee doomsday scenario: - BYU beats Texas Tech - Duke beats Virginia - UGA beats Bama By rule they are required to take the X highest ranked conference champs. Since Duke would be unranked they must take: - IU/OSU winner (B1G) - Georgia (SEC) - BYU (B12) - James Madison (Sun Belt) - North Texas/ Tulane (AAC) That leaves X slots. These teams are locked: - OSU/IU loser - Oregon - Ole Miss - Texas A&M - Oklahoma So you can only take two of: - Texas Tech - Notre Dame - Alabama - Miami The two G5 champs ranked in the 20s likely bump out Miami (with *no* ACC team"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1995238530470293854)  2025-11-30T21:08Z 54.2K followers, 227.8K engagements


"The issue isnt whether Alabama was awful. They were. Its not whether Notre Dame is better - they are in analytics and its why they should probably jump Bama. The hard part is Miami and why ND was ahead despite the H2H - Miami laid similar eggs on offense vs worse teams"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997506513041297634)  2025-12-07T03:20Z 54.2K followers, 13K engagements


"Overrated: If Bama is out Sankey will get rid of the SECCG. Underrated: If the ACC is left out for a lower-ranked G5 because Duke upset UVA in the ACCCG they will burn the whole system to the ground"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997673498030850510)  2025-12-07T14:24Z 54.2K followers, 20.3K engagements


"Do people realize yet that were likely to have Ole Miss play a rematch of a Tulane team they already beat 45-10 this season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997707568630956041)  2025-12-07T16:39Z 54.2K followers, 21.9K engagements


"Totally fair to not punish Alabama for the SECCG. Not fair that a materially better team than JMU or Tulane in Notre Dame is sitting out because we have forced charade inclusivity. They absolutely must fix this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997721489244889327)  2025-12-07T17:34Z 54.2K followers, 24.5K engagements


"X being X everyone is commenting on how fair/unfair this is with zero mention of context. Every team that passed Georgia in 2023 (5 teams) played in a championship game and won. Its absurd to analogize SEC champ Bama and other 0-1 L conf champs passing Georgia in XX to 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997793765055160768)  2025-12-07T22:22Z 54.2K followers, 25.3K engagements


"Relying on MOV and giving a flat penalty to losses means the metric is too easily manipulated by running up scores vs weak teams and too punitive to losing close games to great teams. To explain how it works Resume SP+ compares your MOV to what an average top-5 team would be expected to do capped at XX points and a flat X points is subtracted for each loss. So if you lose by X point to Georgia thats a -X rating. And if you beat a 30th rated team by XX where a 5th ranked team would average winning by XX thats a +5 rating. At the end of the day that favors a Vanderbilt who blasted bad teams"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998050370086392104)  2025-12-08T15:21Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@Worth_NC @NicoleAuerbach Alabama is currently favored in their round one matchup. But betting odds didn't get Alabama in the playoffs in 2022 when they destroyed the B12 champion in their bowl game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998059072407425266)  2025-12-08T15:56Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@flioxan @select_asterisk Most power ratings only put about a field goal's difference between the two teams. Given that the conferences are so isolated it's very hard to definitively say USC is better at this point to be honest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998144024671387933)  2025-12-08T21:33Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements


"@LazyPhilosophia I think it's an extremely dangerous narrative to accept that the SEC sucks because an Alabama team - who had two starting OGs out and a C playing injured - struggled to block a Georgia team they beat earlier in the year. And as you said IU and OSU struggled Saturday too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998149175851262106)  2025-12-08T21:54Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"These ideas make great media narratives but I don't think the CFP Committee is that corrupt/shallow. I do think they caved to pressure on the H2H issue but this is a group of professional individuals and I do think they're trying to do the right thing here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998421078452928688)  2025-12-09T15:54Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements


"@lovemytigerz Shortening college football games while keeping ad contract quotas/game the same should have been punishable by death"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998474341084967302)  2025-12-09T19:26Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements


"@JohnMassingale4 Georgia didnt drop. They were passed by X teams that all won conference titles. Youre taking this to the absurd to say that Alabama shouldnt have passed Georgia after beating them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997792429798555652)  2025-12-07T22:16Z 54.3K followers, 27.9K engagements


"Of course we had to expand. Not because there are XX teams worthy of a playoff but because dumb conference expansion made it such that the best teams now frequently avoid one another and we don't know what your record says about you anymore relative to others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998058747768258698)  2025-12-08T15:55Z 54.3K followers, 2312 engagements


"@FanIrrFeelings My personal opinion in view of that is it comes down to the fact that Notre Dame is playing substantially better football than Alabama down the stretch. Miami ended the season well but they laid some absolute eggs themselves also to very mediocre teams and Bama is higher rated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998138095015760357)  2025-12-08T21:10Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@Rae_Ello419 Notre Dame is higher rated in FEI FPI SP+ our model and virtually all other models - often by a lot. In terms of overall power ratings Notre Dame is pretty consistently a top-6 team actually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998139682115481605)  2025-12-08T21:16Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"What's your final college football playoff top-12 if every single upset happens #2 Indiana beats #1 Ohio State #9 Alabama beats #3 Georgia #11 BYU beats #4 Texas Tech Duke beats #17 Virginia #20 Tulane beats #24 North Texas Troy beats #25 James Madison UNLV beats Boise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1996668944254750862)  2025-12-04T19:52Z 54.2K followers, 24.4K engagements


"For all the people who say "it's fun and neat give someone else a chance" Tell that to ND players who sit at home while a team who played X P4 gets to play. It's not fair. It's not fun and quirky just because the logo isn't familiar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1997721776793768027)  2025-12-07T17:36Z 54.2K followers, 4485 engagements


"This ranking is unfortunately deeply flawed but Ive seen @NicoleAuerbach and other cite to it in defense of Notre Dame. The issue is quickly apparent: its almost entirely just ranking by fewest losses. The reason: Resume SP+ is based on MOV and adds a penalty for each loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998050367544701042)  2025-12-08T15:21Z 54.2K followers, 19K engagements


"The definitive moneyball 🧵on how college football has (or has not) changed: There's a feeling that offensive football is "down." But that doesn't wholly track with statistics. To normalize a bit all the below stats are vs FBS P4/P5 ignoring teams with less than X games played vs P5. Here are the 1st/10th/40th/65th/100th ranked teams in yards-per-play over time: 2025: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2023: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2021: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2018: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2016: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX And the same splits in points-per-game: 2025: XX / XX / XX / 22"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472368898060629)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 4515 engagements


"The number of "elite" per-play offenses has been fairly consistent over time in college football: - There were 3-5 teams with 7+ yards/play every year from 2016-2025 save X years - In 2024 and 2021 there was just X both having particularly weak QB classes coming off huge ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472371758575867)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"A lot of other stats in college football have stayed the same over the last XX years: - Red zone touchdown rates and 3rd down conversion rates are both within X% of 2016 averages - The number of explosive (30+ yard 40+ yard) pass plays per team is also been rather consistent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472374497497471)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"Yet the number of "elite" scoring offenses in college football is way down post-NIL: - There were 4-6 teams scoring 40+ game vs P5 every year from 2016-2020 - 2021-2025 that's fallen to 1-3 every year - All this despite yardage averages across the board staying roughly the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472376317784457)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"So math clearly shows a clear change in college football: - Teams are scoring less points on the same production than they were 5+ years ago - Elite offenses move the ball just as well on average but score substantially less (roughly X TD/game less)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472378138112157)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"So what changed in college football For one thing - rushing averages are way down from XX years ago: - In 2016 XX teams averaged over XXX yards/carry vs P5 teams - Today XX teams average over XXX yards/carry - Last year just XX did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472380054908948)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"So it's probably not a coincidence that the two best yards/play offenses vs P4 competition this year are: 1) Notre Dame and 2) Vanderbilt College football is increasingly shifting away from a WR dominated game and more towards consistent play from high-level OLs and RBs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472382919631138)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@TulaneHype We've always argued that none of this is sustainable. We've talked at length about how teams like NC State Georgia Tech and Mississippi State are going to struggle mightily to stay relevant in the new landscape. This is why we always strongly opposed unregulated NIL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998505856737198464)  2025-12-09T21:31Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@MOBOBBA2166 @bigHeathW Alabamas first probation in the 90s was related to a player on the XX national championship team. The next came after winning the SEC championship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998727307880530414)  2025-12-10T12:11Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements


"BYUs OOC slate was Portland State Stanford and East Carolina. But because BYU played Portland State in week X instead of week XX their schedule is tuff 💪"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1990234287548088819)  2025-11-17T01:43Z 54.2K followers, 76.6K engagements


"Agendas aside I think this is what happened: Bama on quality should be ranked behind Notre Dame but ahead of Miami. The CFPC had pressure to respect the H2H between ND and UM. But the H2H can't affect the Bama vs UM comp so Bama stayed ahead but they bumped ND behind UM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998136624404992053)  2025-12-08T21:04Z 54.2K followers, 9964 engagements


"I think everyone analyzing this is pretty focused on Notre Dame vs Alabama or Bama's flaws or some other particular angle. Ultimately I think the issue was that they had X teams they had to consider together. And they just couldn't rationalize bumping out Alabama for Miami"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998136952462385155)  2025-12-08T21:05Z 54.2K followers, 3172 engagements


"Maybe we could look at how the best teams in the G5 do against P4 competition to determine that we actually understand the concept quite well and that CFB isn't like those other sports. Notice it's never "X G5 team did great against all these P4 teams so they deserve a shot""  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998156549240357285)  2025-12-08T22:23Z 54.2K followers, 41.8K engagements


"The biggest change in college football by far is that teams are running fewer plays: - In 2016 teams averaged XX plays/game vs P4 - Today teams average XX plays/game vs P5 Clock rule changes are taking away 1-2 possessions/team in games (more lost in closer games)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472386069615032)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 2332 engagements


"So there are probably X things at play in college football making games "uglier" and more competitive: - Games are shorter making them more variable with fewer opportunities to score - NIL has made DL play more consistently good making it hard to bury teams with rush offense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998472388724535465)  2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 2313 engagements


"@condablev @TulaneHype Georgia Tech is 45th in FEI. Their season was mostly due to having won of the weakest SOS (70th) in P4. Even still their bigger issue is it's very doubtful they can sustain that success"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998798201231651203)  2025-12-10T16:53Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements


"@NMTC_Hoops The only one of these teams thats still a G5 is Boise and they made it in on their own merit last year. Half our complaint is that the G5 is massively depleted compared to XX years ago. This was certainly a different argument then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998190998061789472)  2025-12-09T00:40Z 54.2K followers, 58.1K engagements


"Michigan has one of the toughest schedules in the B1G next year: - Oklahoma - Indiana - Iowa - Oregon - Penn State - Ohio State"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CFBNerds/status/1998938429133041786)  2025-12-11T02:10Z 54.2K followers, 11.4K engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@CFBNerds Avatar @CFBNerds College Football Nerds

College football analysts and enthusiasts are discussing the flaws in ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) metric, which overranks undefeated teams with weak schedules. Critics argue that the formula is mathematically flawed, citing examples of teams like BYU and Navy being ranked high despite having weak schedules. This has led to debates about the best way to evaluate teams, with some suggesting that metrics like winning percentage and strength of schedule should be given more weight.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

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  • X Month XXX +30%
  • X Months XXXXX +45%
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Followers: XXXXXX #

Followers Line Chart

  • X Week XXXXXX +0.17%
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  • X Months XXXXXX +44%
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Social Influence

Social category influence ncaa football #887 finance XXXX% ncaa basketball #2408

Social topic influence college football #157, notre dame #197, cfp #300, number of 1.84%, ole miss 1.23%, level 1.23%, old dominion 1.23%, big 12 #129, texas tech 1.23%, if you XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @johnclampittfb @kberg43 @toddfoxtrot @coachbeaumont @zfieb12 @sicily_t_ @therealonekd1 @clarky07 @johnscaer @patsfanjp @magaisdum @peterdactyll @petefiutak @biiggtoe @patsfan_jp @kelseyc22323266 @liamtuc43138389 @maddened67 @willic01 @timlovejoy9

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"How Washington Huskies coaching staff envisions the most optimal use for defensive ends in crucial situations apparently"
X Link 2025-11-29T21:56Z 54.2K followers, 8747 engagements

"@SBLII2017 Wed be dropping Alabama or Notre Dame for a team that already lost 45-10 to Ole Miss or 28-14 to Louisville. These particular G5 teams will not be competitive at this level"
X Link 2025-11-30T23:29Z 54.2K followers, 3732 engagements

"UM beat X Sagarin top XX Bama beat X And Miami lost to SMU Alabama beat Tennessee LSU Auburn and South Carolina. Using Sagarin for SMU (#21) also validates Auburn (#26) as a good win for Alabama though"
X Link 2025-12-04T14:55Z 54.2K followers, 49.4K engagements

"@EP3080283895010 Bama is currently favored in their first round matchup"
X Link 2025-12-07T18:25Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"We gave the guys with the Harvard MBAs control of CFB and they took their private equity mindset and created conference expansion maximizing profit while showing borderline contempt for its customer and product"
X Link 2025-11-30T15:06Z 54.2K followers, 21.2K engagements

"Yes 4/5 stars were going to Oregon or Notre Dame or OSU or Michigan or USC for free turning down offers and bags at SEC schools where they were also getting better odds to win a title. Now B1G schools are out spending everybody. Guess they ran out of players like those they used to find willing to just play for the love of the game"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:09Z 54.2K followers, 63.2K engagements

"Indiana football's first X weeks of the CFB regular season: - Old Dominion - Kennesaw St - Indiana St IU's final X weeks: - Wisconsin - Bye - Purdue But they got strong opinions about your one weekend in November"
X Link 2025-11-29T02:35Z 54.2K followers, 751.6K engagements

"@jrs_rankings Indiana has played X ranked teams in two seasons combined. 1/3 of the bowl eligible teams they beat were Kennesaw St and Old Dominion"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:02Z 54.2K followers, 7401 engagements

"The irony here is crazy. We spent YEARS arguing with G5 people that NIL wasn't going to make the G5 more competitive and would in fact do the opposite turning them into feeders. Now that we're proven right they want more CFP access because blind hope springs eternal"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:23Z 54.2K followers, 27.1K engagements

"People always want to say "if we aren't included we can't grow" But being included and losing badly is going to make you look less attractive than beating an unmotivated flawed also-ran P4 team in a bowl. Same as how UCF and Houston are doing worse for joining the Big 12"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:25Z 54.2K followers, 3075 engagements

"@aManwithTakes College basketball isnt college football"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:05Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"What three 2025 Big Ten out of conference games impressed you the most in terms of proving quality What three games make you question them the most"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:47Z 54.2K followers, 4240 engagements

"UVA's "OOC" P4 opponent was actually an ACC team NC State who they lost to but it doesn't count in the official standings. (They had to scramble to get an opponent after Indiana canceled and replaced UVA with Kennesaw St)"
X Link 2025-11-30T15:04Z 54.2K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Mathematically playing 2025 Auburn XX times would have given Notre Dame the #1 SOS in the country. Currently theirs is 42nd. Theyd have a considerably lower probability of going 10-2 with such a schedule"
X Link 2025-12-03T03:08Z 54.2K followers, 364.2K engagements

"@NMTC_Hoops The teams that left the Group of Five You say this like the G5 has some inherent right to exist as a separate immutable entity"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:21Z 54.2K followers, 1139 engagements

"Turnabout is fair play: What about the SEC Or the ACC Or the Big XX Only rule - you must name sets of three"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:47Z 54.2K followers, 2227 engagements

"@BudElliott3 We've disagreed on many things and on many occasions it was due to you DEFENDING G5 teams. But there's a big distinction between including a 2024 Boise State and a 2025 Tulane that many are missing. XX Boise proved they belonged in the season. XX Tulane proved they don't"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:39Z 54.2K followers, 3029 engagements

"All you "never left cable" luddites acting like there's never a carriage dispute there. Greed finds the consumer wherever they may hide"
X Link 2025-11-01T15:08Z 54.2K followers, 9730 engagements

"Pitt Football:"
X Link 2025-11-15T19:40Z 54.2K followers, 7759 engagements

"The College Football Playoff Committee doomsday scenario: - BYU beats Texas Tech - Duke beats Virginia - UGA beats Bama By rule they are required to take the X highest ranked conference champs. Since Duke would be unranked they must take: - IU/OSU winner (B1G) - Georgia (SEC) - BYU (B12) - James Madison (Sun Belt) - North Texas/ Tulane (AAC) That leaves X slots. These teams are locked: - OSU/IU loser - Oregon - Ole Miss - Texas A&M - Oklahoma So you can only take two of: - Texas Tech - Notre Dame - Alabama - Miami The two G5 champs ranked in the 20s likely bump out Miami (with no ACC team"
X Link 2025-11-30T21:08Z 54.2K followers, 227.8K engagements

"The issue isnt whether Alabama was awful. They were. Its not whether Notre Dame is better - they are in analytics and its why they should probably jump Bama. The hard part is Miami and why ND was ahead despite the H2H - Miami laid similar eggs on offense vs worse teams"
X Link 2025-12-07T03:20Z 54.2K followers, 13K engagements

"Overrated: If Bama is out Sankey will get rid of the SECCG. Underrated: If the ACC is left out for a lower-ranked G5 because Duke upset UVA in the ACCCG they will burn the whole system to the ground"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:24Z 54.2K followers, 20.3K engagements

"Do people realize yet that were likely to have Ole Miss play a rematch of a Tulane team they already beat 45-10 this season"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:39Z 54.2K followers, 21.9K engagements

"Totally fair to not punish Alabama for the SECCG. Not fair that a materially better team than JMU or Tulane in Notre Dame is sitting out because we have forced charade inclusivity. They absolutely must fix this"
X Link 2025-12-07T17:34Z 54.2K followers, 24.5K engagements

"X being X everyone is commenting on how fair/unfair this is with zero mention of context. Every team that passed Georgia in 2023 (5 teams) played in a championship game and won. Its absurd to analogize SEC champ Bama and other 0-1 L conf champs passing Georgia in XX to 2025"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:22Z 54.2K followers, 25.3K engagements

"Relying on MOV and giving a flat penalty to losses means the metric is too easily manipulated by running up scores vs weak teams and too punitive to losing close games to great teams. To explain how it works Resume SP+ compares your MOV to what an average top-5 team would be expected to do capped at XX points and a flat X points is subtracted for each loss. So if you lose by X point to Georgia thats a -X rating. And if you beat a 30th rated team by XX where a 5th ranked team would average winning by XX thats a +5 rating. At the end of the day that favors a Vanderbilt who blasted bad teams"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:21Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@Worth_NC @NicoleAuerbach Alabama is currently favored in their round one matchup. But betting odds didn't get Alabama in the playoffs in 2022 when they destroyed the B12 champion in their bowl game"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:56Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@flioxan @select_asterisk Most power ratings only put about a field goal's difference between the two teams. Given that the conferences are so isolated it's very hard to definitively say USC is better at this point to be honest"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:33Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements

"@LazyPhilosophia I think it's an extremely dangerous narrative to accept that the SEC sucks because an Alabama team - who had two starting OGs out and a C playing injured - struggled to block a Georgia team they beat earlier in the year. And as you said IU and OSU struggled Saturday too"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:54Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"These ideas make great media narratives but I don't think the CFP Committee is that corrupt/shallow. I do think they caved to pressure on the H2H issue but this is a group of professional individuals and I do think they're trying to do the right thing here"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:54Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements

"@lovemytigerz Shortening college football games while keeping ad contract quotas/game the same should have been punishable by death"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:26Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements

"@JohnMassingale4 Georgia didnt drop. They were passed by X teams that all won conference titles. Youre taking this to the absurd to say that Alabama shouldnt have passed Georgia after beating them"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:16Z 54.3K followers, 27.9K engagements

"Of course we had to expand. Not because there are XX teams worthy of a playoff but because dumb conference expansion made it such that the best teams now frequently avoid one another and we don't know what your record says about you anymore relative to others"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:55Z 54.3K followers, 2312 engagements

"@FanIrrFeelings My personal opinion in view of that is it comes down to the fact that Notre Dame is playing substantially better football than Alabama down the stretch. Miami ended the season well but they laid some absolute eggs themselves also to very mediocre teams and Bama is higher rated"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:10Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@Rae_Ello419 Notre Dame is higher rated in FEI FPI SP+ our model and virtually all other models - often by a lot. In terms of overall power ratings Notre Dame is pretty consistently a top-6 team actually"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:16Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"What's your final college football playoff top-12 if every single upset happens #2 Indiana beats #1 Ohio State #9 Alabama beats #3 Georgia #11 BYU beats #4 Texas Tech Duke beats #17 Virginia #20 Tulane beats #24 North Texas Troy beats #25 James Madison UNLV beats Boise"
X Link 2025-12-04T19:52Z 54.2K followers, 24.4K engagements

"For all the people who say "it's fun and neat give someone else a chance" Tell that to ND players who sit at home while a team who played X P4 gets to play. It's not fair. It's not fun and quirky just because the logo isn't familiar"
X Link 2025-12-07T17:36Z 54.2K followers, 4485 engagements

"This ranking is unfortunately deeply flawed but Ive seen @NicoleAuerbach and other cite to it in defense of Notre Dame. The issue is quickly apparent: its almost entirely just ranking by fewest losses. The reason: Resume SP+ is based on MOV and adds a penalty for each loss"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:21Z 54.2K followers, 19K engagements

"The definitive moneyball 🧵on how college football has (or has not) changed: There's a feeling that offensive football is "down." But that doesn't wholly track with statistics. To normalize a bit all the below stats are vs FBS P4/P5 ignoring teams with less than X games played vs P5. Here are the 1st/10th/40th/65th/100th ranked teams in yards-per-play over time: 2025: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2023: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2021: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2018: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX 2016: XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX / XXX And the same splits in points-per-game: 2025: XX / XX / XX / 22"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 4515 engagements

"The number of "elite" per-play offenses has been fairly consistent over time in college football: - There were 3-5 teams with 7+ yards/play every year from 2016-2025 save X years - In 2024 and 2021 there was just X both having particularly weak QB classes coming off huge ones"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"A lot of other stats in college football have stayed the same over the last XX years: - Red zone touchdown rates and 3rd down conversion rates are both within X% of 2016 averages - The number of explosive (30+ yard 40+ yard) pass plays per team is also been rather consistent"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Yet the number of "elite" scoring offenses in college football is way down post-NIL: - There were 4-6 teams scoring 40+ game vs P5 every year from 2016-2020 - 2021-2025 that's fallen to 1-3 every year - All this despite yardage averages across the board staying roughly the same"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"So math clearly shows a clear change in college football: - Teams are scoring less points on the same production than they were 5+ years ago - Elite offenses move the ball just as well on average but score substantially less (roughly X TD/game less)"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"So what changed in college football For one thing - rushing averages are way down from XX years ago: - In 2016 XX teams averaged over XXX yards/carry vs P5 teams - Today XX teams average over XXX yards/carry - Last year just XX did"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"So it's probably not a coincidence that the two best yards/play offenses vs P4 competition this year are: 1) Notre Dame and 2) Vanderbilt College football is increasingly shifting away from a WR dominated game and more towards consistent play from high-level OLs and RBs"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@TulaneHype We've always argued that none of this is sustainable. We've talked at length about how teams like NC State Georgia Tech and Mississippi State are going to struggle mightily to stay relevant in the new landscape. This is why we always strongly opposed unregulated NIL"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:31Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@MOBOBBA2166 @bigHeathW Alabamas first probation in the 90s was related to a player on the XX national championship team. The next came after winning the SEC championship"
X Link 2025-12-10T12:11Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements

"BYUs OOC slate was Portland State Stanford and East Carolina. But because BYU played Portland State in week X instead of week XX their schedule is tuff 💪"
X Link 2025-11-17T01:43Z 54.2K followers, 76.6K engagements

"Agendas aside I think this is what happened: Bama on quality should be ranked behind Notre Dame but ahead of Miami. The CFPC had pressure to respect the H2H between ND and UM. But the H2H can't affect the Bama vs UM comp so Bama stayed ahead but they bumped ND behind UM"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:04Z 54.2K followers, 9964 engagements

"I think everyone analyzing this is pretty focused on Notre Dame vs Alabama or Bama's flaws or some other particular angle. Ultimately I think the issue was that they had X teams they had to consider together. And they just couldn't rationalize bumping out Alabama for Miami"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:05Z 54.2K followers, 3172 engagements

"Maybe we could look at how the best teams in the G5 do against P4 competition to determine that we actually understand the concept quite well and that CFB isn't like those other sports. Notice it's never "X G5 team did great against all these P4 teams so they deserve a shot""
X Link 2025-12-08T22:23Z 54.2K followers, 41.8K engagements

"The biggest change in college football by far is that teams are running fewer plays: - In 2016 teams averaged XX plays/game vs P4 - Today teams average XX plays/game vs P5 Clock rule changes are taking away 1-2 possessions/team in games (more lost in closer games)"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 2332 engagements

"So there are probably X things at play in college football making games "uglier" and more competitive: - Games are shorter making them more variable with fewer opportunities to score - NIL has made DL play more consistently good making it hard to bury teams with rush offense"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:18Z 54.2K followers, 2313 engagements

"@condablev @TulaneHype Georgia Tech is 45th in FEI. Their season was mostly due to having won of the weakest SOS (70th) in P4. Even still their bigger issue is it's very doubtful they can sustain that success"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:53Z 54.2K followers, XX engagements

"@NMTC_Hoops The only one of these teams thats still a G5 is Boise and they made it in on their own merit last year. Half our complaint is that the G5 is massively depleted compared to XX years ago. This was certainly a different argument then"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:40Z 54.2K followers, 58.1K engagements

"Michigan has one of the toughest schedules in the B1G next year: - Oklahoma - Indiana - Iowa - Oregon - Penn State - Ohio State"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:10Z 54.2K followers, 11.4K engagements

@CFBNerds
/creator/twitter::CFBNerds