#  @BrownMarubozu Brown Brown posts on X about $ffhto, $scrto, $megto, $cve the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::30570076/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +7.40% - [--] Month [-------] +82% - [--] Months [---------] +22% - [--] Year [---------] +69% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::30570076/posts_active)  - [--] Month [---] -25% - [--] Months [---] +4.70% - [--] Year [-----] +44% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::30570076/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.29% - [--] Month [-----] +1.50% - [--] Months [-----] +8.40% - [--] Year [-----] +23% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::30570076/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$ffhto](/topic/$ffhto) #1, [$scrto](/topic/$scrto) #2, [$megto](/topic/$megto), [$cve](/topic/$cve), [stocks](/topic/stocks) #4390, [$mkov](/topic/$mkov), [$brk](/topic/$brk) #2, [investment](/topic/investment), [insurance](/topic/insurance), [$fihu](/topic/$fihu) #2 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@vikingvan100](/creator/undefined) [@newcomerinvest](/creator/undefined) [@tidefallcapital](/creator/undefined) [@acipartnerhship](/creator/undefined) [@colesmead](/creator/undefined) [@akibaleisman](/creator/undefined) [@cfrischer1](/creator/undefined) [@deepvalueco](/creator/undefined) [@bonhoefferkds](/creator/undefined) [@billbrewstertbb](/creator/undefined) [@mananainvesting](/creator/undefined) [@razoroil](/creator/undefined) [@bubleqe](/creator/undefined) [@bsilly3](/creator/undefined) [@denverlabrador](/creator/undefined) [@inthemoneypod](/creator/undefined) [@sohaibab9](/creator/undefined) [@valueventurez](/creator/undefined) [@jresourceinvest](/creator/undefined) [@beegjj](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)](/topic/$cve) [Markel, Corp. (MKL)](/topic/$mkl) [Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)](/topic/$fang) [Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (AQN)](/topic/$aqn) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Quant (QNT)](/topic/quant) [Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)](/topic/$cnq) [Cheeseball (CB)](/topic/$cb) [Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA)](/topic/$orla) [W R Berkley Corp (WRB)](/topic/$wrb) [Scroll (SCR)](/topic/$scr) [Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)](/topic/$meg) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "CEO reconfirms confidence in tripling revenue run rate between F2019 to F2021 with increasing gross and net margins. $MBX.TO 6x FCF plus growth. Microbix Biosystems (TSX: MBX; OTCQX: MBXBF) - What is Viral Transport M. via @YouTube https://youtu.be/h3vvxYMjmLw https://youtu.be/h3vvxYMjmLw" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1332875329745121284) 2020-11-29T02:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Another competitor of $ATTO is going public. $TIXT is growing fast has higher margins lower cost of capital and a dramatically higher valuation. The image is the competitive landscape from a recent $CNXC presentation. Digital customer experience innovator Telus International (Cda) Inc. sets terms for its #IPO. $TIXT Shares: [----] million Price Range: $23.00-$25.00 Market Cap: $6.1b-$6.7b Trade Date: Wednesday 2/3 https://t.co/Hjd6uUwRbD Digital customer experience innovator Telus International (Cda) Inc. sets terms for its #IPO. $TIXT Shares: [----] million Price Range: $23.00-$25.00 Market Cap:" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1354055825795510273) 2021-01-26T13:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Parth29192 @TidefallCapital Might have entered into an inverse total return swap. If $FFH.TO can go long its own stock through a total return swap without disclosing it for purposes of SEDI why couldnt they have done the same with $BB I want to be long when they report Q1" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1368030601513689088) 2021-03-06T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Maybe Bain & Co could pass on to Tiger the opportunity it's cousin Bain Capital created in $ATTO. Trading at only 4x EV/EBITDA vs peers ( $CNXC $TTEC $TIXT ) at 10-15x EV/EBITDA. Each multiple point adds over $10/share and the CXM sector is consolidating. "Tiger pays for its portfolio companies to access consultants at Bain & Co. who provide advice on things like how to launch a product in a new market." ".the company racked up an $18000 Zoom bill for the year." Great piece by @KateClarkTweets https://t.co/Xd7P0k7AS0 "Tiger pays for its portfolio companies to access consultants at Bain & Co." [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1379611859695902727) 2021-04-07T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Biggest volume in a month. Unfortunately thats still less than 25k shares. Biggest pushback I get on $ATTO from hedge funds is that its too illiquid to buy enough for the position to matter" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1382414353954185219) 2021-04-14T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$IOU.V reported its Q1 results this morning. The income statement composition has changed quite a bit now that they are not warehousing loans on the balance sheet. After generating US$25m in loans in Q1 they are guiding to $165-200m for [----]. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/iou-financial-inc-reports-financial-results-for-the-three-month-period-ended-march-31-2021-810799745.html https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/iou-financial-inc-reports-financial-results-for-the-three-month-period-ended-march-31-2021-810799745.html" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1395817808844529664) 2021-05-21T19:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$STLC.TO might have a Canadian steel comp soon. Warrants $LEGOW look interesting at these levels. $LEGO - SPAC Legato Merger gains on report in talks to take Canada's Algoma Steel public https://t.co/NzmOMk4SLW $LEGO - SPAC Legato Merger gains on report in talks to take Canada's Algoma Steel public https://t.co/NzmOMk4SLW" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1396822735649714179) 2021-05-24T13:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Algoma Steel appears to be coming public pretty cheap at 1.9x EV/EBITDA but its not clear if they have the same assumptions as RBC in a recent note which shows $STLC.TO and peers trading much higher. Structure looks good at first glance. $LEGO $LEGOW https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/algoma-steel-and-legato-merger-corp-sign-definitive-merger-agreement-845434747.html $STLC.TO might have a Canadian steel comp soon. Warrants $LEGOW look interesting at these levels. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/algoma-steel-and-legato-merger-corp-sign-definitive-merger-agreement-845434747.html" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1397017261261660162) 2021-05-25T02:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Tell me you know what an annuity is but not how to price it without telling me you know what an annuity is" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1405167314962632705) 2021-06-16T14:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Mehdi70501002 They think they are one of the lowest cost FWIW. They are going to use IPO proceeds for EAF conversion but that should lead to multiple expansion based on peer multiples. I only own small $LEGOW. Hope $STLC.TO does well too" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1408622959523209223) 2021-06-26T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@FromValue $ELF.TO owns about 20% of its own shares through various holding companies. It acts like a total return swap under IFRS accounting" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1409145771405070338) 2021-06-27T13:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "DiamondBack $FANG (mkt cap US$18b) had Wexford as its major shareholder when it ran its IPO in [----]. The Chairman is a former Wexford employee. Wexford is the controlling shareholder of $MKO.V and $FISH.V now but its not helping valuation yet. https://www.mrt.com/business/energy/article/Diamondback-Energy-continues-journey-to-7458284.php Best-performing #oil stocks in [----] (from S&P 500): Marathon Oil: 105% DiamondBack Energy: +96% Devon Energy: +89.1% Occidental: +81% Hess: +66.5% Exxon: +57.9% ConocoPhillips: +54.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1412379561954795521) 2021-07-06T11:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SultanAmeerali @cdnvaluestocks I dont think they needed it. It just made life a lot easier" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1416814319052939270) 2021-07-18T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SultanAmeerali @cdnvaluestocks I own through $LEGOW" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1416814492890144776) 2021-07-18T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@dwgg33 @kcerminara @IgnoreNarrative Lumber historically is a commodity I have struggled with (read: have been hurt before) so I havent put in the work here. I feel the same way about steel but I do own some $LEGOW. Is your long assuming the lumber price settles higher than the current price on strong demand" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1417787367797268482) 2021-07-21T10:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Celebrating [--] years without institutional constraints. Areas to improve: Patience optimism sizing Strengths: Underwriting conviction Pre-tax returns to date: Composite (8/2012): 21.7% CAD (8/2012): 18.6% S&P/TSX TR: 8.7% USD (11/2012): 23.2% S&P [---] TR: 16.0% That being said Im sharing in case it encourages people to consider my ideas as I think they trade below intrinsic value vs some of the alternatives. LT returns to date: Composite (8/2012): 20.9% CAD (8/2012): 18.3% S&P/TSX TR: 8.1% USD (11/2012): 20.9% S&P [---] TR: 15.4% That being said Im sharing in case it encourages people to consider" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1421544949900840960) 2021-07-31T18:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BuffaloBillCo @Plum_Capital @RocksOver @praxisprocess Thanks. Im pretty ignorant on steel so I would never take a big position. I own it through the $LEGOW and its about a 1.5% position. I like the risk/reward on the warrants more than the equity" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1423783348552585226) 2021-08-06T23:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BuffaloBillCo This is a snippet of the $STLC.TO call a friend shot over. Despite my $LEGOW position its so cheap I havent listened to the call yet but this might explain some of the optimism" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1425804330301591560) 2021-08-12T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@puppyeh1 @BuffaloBillCo Seems hard to get screwed which is why I own the $LEGOW. It was a 0.5% position when it started but now its 2.5% because of the capital appreciation. I mitigate the unknown unknowns through sizing" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1426885181055639554) 2021-08-15T12:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I really enjoyed this podcast. Jason's characterization of the [----] housing market kind of reminds me of parts of this market. Illiquid assets are trading well below ever increasing intrinsic value and their aren't enough buyers to absorb the supply. Planet MicroCap Ep. [---] - Real Estate: Its Not [----] But Lets Talk with Jason Greenwald Full-time Private Investor @JGreenwald86 #Investing #Education #RealEstate YouTube: https://t.co/fToFSgE4Yt Audio: https://t.co/1hOVJoxXO6 Planet MicroCap Ep. [---] - Real Estate: Its Not [----] But Lets Talk with Jason Greenwald Full-time Private Investor" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1427781408878116868) 2021-08-17T23:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think Canadian long only funds will care followed by Canadian passive funds which will probably bring the momentum funds along. I own a small position (2.3%) $LEGOW I own a (small) position here and am continuing to do work. This is a good summary; I think the risk is much less about the biz and more about the 'will anyone care' aspect. There is limited (no) prospect for capital returns imo.its just. really. really. cheap. I own a (small) position here and am continuing to do work. This is a good summary; I think the risk is much less about the biz and more about the 'will anyone care'" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1431980047569719310) 2021-08-29T14:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MKO.V results show monthly cash flow of US$3.3m in July which should improve over time. $FISH.V is also lending US$8m to $MKO.V via gold loan which will give Mako flexibility to buy back stock if the BOD so chooses. Mako Mining Reports Second Quarter [----] Financial Results and Refinances Short-Term Debt $mko.v Mako Mining Reports Second Quarter [----] Financial Results and Refinances Short-Term Debt $mko.v" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1432315598646747140) 2021-08-30T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its funny the sense I get for why people dont own $FFH.TO is because they expect Prem to bat [-----]. He was cancelled by Value investors but looks like an amazing risk reward for Expected Value investors. #EV @BillBrewsterSCG No one bats [-----]. No one. @BillBrewsterSCG No one bats [-----]. No one" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1434316421794775042) 2021-09-05T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I did some analysis on my portfolio b/c the Top Ideas (TI) that represent 44% of my portfolio haven't done well Q2 to date. Win rate 70%+ TI YTD: 24% of TR TI Q2TD: 14% of TR Attribution Q2TD +/-: 📈 $ATU.V $ATTO $LEGOW 📉 $ASC (switched into $MKTWW) $PIF.TO $MDP.DB Update to Aug [--] Five months ago when I shared these ideas on @KYRRadio they represented 39% of my net worth vs 44% now. I own 30% more $ATTO and 90% more $MKO.V while the others are flat. All of the ideas are better risk/rewards now vs then. https://t.co/jtKAzWv31M Update to Aug [--] Five months ago when I shared these ideas on" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1435060688167256067) 2021-09-07T02:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some interesting analysis on steel. Im not a commodity expert but there is logic to stronger for longer pricing in steel. I have exposure to $LEGO through $LEGOW which should close on the acquisition of Algoma Steel in Q4. It trades around 1x EBITDA pro forma on current prices Some thoughts about where i think the steel industry is headed. Would love to have a discussion and hear your thoughts. $CLF $MT $X $TX $LEGOW https://t.co/NtpDUVQ3DI Some thoughts about where i think the steel industry is headed. Would love to have a discussion and hear your thoughts. $CLF $MT $X $TX $LEGOW" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1435632989795504132) 2021-09-08T15:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A $50 tender offer for $ATTO would be just as insulting as any opening salvo in a fantasy football trade proposal I have ever seen" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1437079647217405958) 2021-09-12T15:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ragnarisapirate @RocksOver @FMetard @LynAldenContact Total Return Swap - instead of buying back stock they want long TRS so they didnt have to file buyback reports and they didnt have to use capital" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1437088645702422529) 2021-09-12T16:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@eastdave902 @exileofthemain The total return swap was for a lot of stock" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1439577629393395712) 2021-09-19T13:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "New ticker once the merger is complete for $LEGO / $LEGOW to be $ASTL / $ASTLW on Nasdaq and $ASTL.TO / $ASTL.WT on the TSX. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001860805/000119312521277172/d177997df4a.htm Some interesting analysis on steel. Im not a commodity expert but there is logic to stronger for longer pricing in steel. I have exposure to $LEGO through $LEGOW which should close on the acquisition of Algoma Steel in Q4. It trades around 1x EBITDA pro forma on current prices https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001860805/000119312521277172/d177997df4a.htm Some interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1440061920170561555) 2021-09-20T21:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$LEGOW / $ASTL meeting scheduled for October [--]. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/22/2301256/0/en/Legato-Merger-Corp-Announces-Date-for-Special-Meeting-to-Approve-Proposed-Business-Combination-with-Algoma-Steel.html New ticker once the merger is complete for $LEGO / $LEGOW to be $ASTL / $ASTLW on Nasdaq and $ASTL.TO / $ASTL.WT on the TSX. https://t.co/AYpF9orEPe https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/22/2301256/0/en/Legato-Merger-Corp-Announces-Date-for-Special-Meeting-to-Approve-Proposed-Business-Combination-with-Algoma-Steel.html New ticker once the merger is" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1440660139468410885) 2021-09-22T12:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks @twebs for hosting Im excited for both of these Spaces as I own $ASTLW too. Some fellow $ATTO shareholders @Plum_Capital and @cfrischer1 have agreed to participate on Monday which is awesome as they are both insightful investors. Looking forward to it Our first two Single Stock Spaces are locked up Monday we will discuss $ATTO with @BrownMarubozu . $ATTO is a CRM/BPO trading at a big discount vs peers and M&A comps w/ a catalyst path to unlock the discount. Tuesday @BuffaloBillCo is brave enough to talk $STLC and $ASTL Our first two Single Stock Spaces are locked up Monday we will" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1457036608117649409) 2021-11-06T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Akshay Shahs Kyma Capital Seeks $750 Million After Strong Gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/akshay-shah-s-kyma-capital-seeks-750-million-after-strong-gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/akshay-shah-s-kyma-capital-seeks-750-million-after-strong-gains" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1458438109666979843) 2021-11-10T14:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "One of the few indices you want your positions to get kicked out of (but only because of multiple expansion). Great work as always @twebs I own some $ARCH $ASTLW directly and $STLC.TO $RFP indirectly through $FFH.TO. Finally I linked to my Substack articles where I have published but also to helpful threads or Substack articles from @aggresivevalue @puppyeh1 @Alpaca_Capital @AQR1485 @TwainsMustache @Plum_Capital @satorimind @KNLCBD Thanks to all of you for putting your work out there. https://t.co/Qb2FXot5Bq Finally I linked to my Substack articles where I have published but also to helpful" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1477008740855717888) 2021-12-31T20:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@onbeyondinvest @praxisprocess @VieBuyer @hasilp89 @AndrewRangeley I bought some $STLC today. Its possible it stays weak until the SIB is done but I like the set up" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1478572099849625603) 2022-01-05T03:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Im betting $FFH.TO outperforms $MKL over the next [--] years. If you had a minimum holding period of [--] years what [--] stock equal weight portfolio would you buy today Off the top of my head I'll go with: [--]. $MKL [--]. $MA [--]. $GOOG [--]. $CSU.TO [--]. $AMAT If you had a minimum holding period of [--] years what [--] stock equal weight portfolio would you buy today Off the top of my head I'll go with: [--]. $MKL [--]. $MA [--]. $GOOG [--]. $CSU.TO [--]. $AMAT" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1516496427433738248) 2022-04-19T19:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My brother created this new crypto-based fantasy sports platform Gambit. It reminds me a lot of markets because it uses supply and demand to determine the price for athlete tokens. The tokens are then used in contests that can provide returns over and above capital appreciation" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1518246344976121856) 2022-04-24T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MKL underwriting results bode well for $FFH.TO on Friday. Fairfax has less duration in its bond portfolio so might not get hit as hard on the mark to market. $MKL with a great q. Book value down of course due to investments marked to market but combined ratio of 89% is fantastic. Ventures rev up 35% and premiums earned up 17%. All looks pretty damn good to me. $MKL with a great q. Book value down of course due to investments marked to market but combined ratio of 89% is fantastic. Ventures rev up 35% and premiums earned up 17%. All looks pretty damn good to me" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1519115048412762112) 2022-04-27T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$FFH.TO has a $1.3b stake in $EUROB (top [--] equity holding). Coincidentally it also trades around 5-6x earnings. If value is about to have a resurgence $FFH.TO should do exceptional on its equity portfolio given how many low multiple stocks it holds. Just like [----] [----]. Crisis and Opportunity are two sides of the same coin. At the Toronto Economic Forum yesterday CEO of @FFH_TO Prem Watsa stated that #Canada is the land of opportunity and shared his insights about why #Greece is on its way to becoming the best country in Europe to invest in. https://t.co/aBGBAPvGdu Crisis and Opportunity are" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1590951236773498886) 2022-11-11T06:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@special_cheeese $MKO.V $MAKOF A Nicaraguan gold miner controlled by billionaire Chuck Davidson via Wexford Capital trading at 1x 2024E OpCF. Unsurprisingly Wexford paid prices more than 3x the current quote likely thinking 3x OpCF was solid margin of safety (I also thought that)" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1593229957605777408) 2022-11-17T13:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So much $FANG love which was Wexfords oil vehicle they took public in [----] but a lot less love for $MKO.V which is its gold vehicle at what might be the beginning of a gold bull. @ 2x OpCF its not a demanding valuation. Imagine what they could do with a low cost of capital" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1605334671696723968) 2022-12-20T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Stealing this chart from CoBF that shows the relative P/B of $FFH.TO vs $MKL and $BRK. Lots of room for momentum investors to close the gap while value investors sell as it hits new highs. RBC painting a positive picture for insurance stocks heading into [----] (while later cautioning that there might be reasons to fade the group in 2H) https://t.co/IEpBda5xfN RBC painting a positive picture for insurance stocks heading into [----] (while later cautioning that there might be reasons to fade the group in 2H) https://t.co/IEpBda5xfN" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1610687693675008030) 2023-01-04T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Recall BMO values the Spring Valley royalty greater than $FISH.V s entire market cap (US$60m) or C$1.10/share. The remaining dividend paying corp will presumably be valued off of dividend yield. At a yield of 5-10% thats worth C$0.675-1.35/share. $fish.v Were going to look to separate our 3% NSR on the multi-million ounce Spring Valley project in Nevada from the rest of $fish.v We are also looking to increase our silver exposure (as we are a member of the $SILJ) while maintaining or raising our US$0.05/yr dividend. $fish.v Were going to look to separate our 3% NSR on the multi-million ounce" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1616107819387785217) 2023-01-19T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ReganCoda @farnamjake1 @JunctionOctopus @TidefallCapital $FFXDF $FIH.U is still at 30% discount to BV and the biggest piece BIAL (the airport) is likely marked at a meaningful discount to FMV. It was better at 50% of NAV but still pretty good" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1616578081803718658) 2023-01-20T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Highlighting this report on $FIH.U and specifically BIAL. I think the long term opportunity is to list BIAL or Anchorage in India and use the potential low cost of capital to grow faster and more accretively than $FFXDF can with its much higher cost of capital. Fairfax India currently trades at about 44% discount to NAV. But 45% of the NAV is its investment in Bangalore Airport. Read my deep dive on the valuation of Bangalore Airport and the resulting implication on Fairfax India's net asset value. $FIH.U https://t.co/7dhIoF9xOe Fairfax India currently trades at about 44% discount to NAV. But" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1617914251871653888) 2023-01-24T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@brunswickstew92 @SantiagoAuFund $MAKOF is actually very profitable. Q4 will show cost reduction and FCF improvement. That should continue in Q1 on the higher gold price" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1618956649498292240) 2023-01-27T12:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Both $FFH.TO and $FIH.U continued their buybacks in January. I wish both would be more aggressive" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1624043340479049729) 2023-02-10T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once valuation is taken into consideration. $MKL $BRK $WRB It has worked before two years ago the other way around when switching Berkshire for Fairfax after the latter significantly underperformed. Berkshire now flat on one year basis $FFH.TO up 45% Havent done all the work. But could be an interesting switch. It has worked before two years ago the other way around when switching Berkshire for Fairfax after the latter significantly underperformed." [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1627863655394967552) 2023-02-21T02:51Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements "@vanckzhu @CJ0pp3l @BrandonMBlum You guys buying any gold" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1627870469998145537) 2023-02-21T03:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I bought some $CHW.TO since they reported earnings last week. Unsurprisingly there isnt a lot of demand for shares of a nonbank financial these days. The stock has strong returns historically via dividends (6.7% yield) looks cheap on valuation and has a motivated CEO" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1638343356081221632) 2023-03-22T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Every time I listen to a macro interview I get excited about what in my portfolio benefits from their view. Russell didnt disappoint Short duration/hard asset owning $FFH.TO gold producer $MKO.V and LATAM ag retailer $LVRO alll seem well positioned and catalyst heavy. TW we welcome Russell Clark to the show to talk about his macro process and why Asia is more important than most market participants realize. Then @jam_croissant joins to talk 0DTE options why they are so popular and how the volatility market is set up for the coming months. TW we welcome Russell Clark to the show to talk about" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1640048481434759168) 2023-03-26T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO has me owning the common for a trade in front of analyst coverage / marketing" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1640051819303907329) 2023-03-26T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@OptionAlpha3 I think the implied volatility are low for all of them which is partly why I own all of them. $LVRO and $SLND warrants rerated once the mergers were completed but the $AMBI ones havent. My theory is they are just cheap but looking for a better explanation" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1645860212878766081) 2023-04-11T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LVROW showing a pick up in volume which is hopefully a precursor for the common. Sensible strategy to load up on warrants before buying the stock. In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO has me owning the common for a trade in front of analyst coverage / marketing. In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1646576173684588552) 2023-04-13T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great work by Viking as usual over at CoBF comparing $FFH.TO to $MKL and $WRB. There is a lot more to the analysis than just the table below but seems like a good idea for long/short funds to be long Fairfax vs the other two. $FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once valuation is taken into consideration. $MKL $BRK $WRB https://t.co/BJYcj9OlJH $FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1655993348287496209) 2023-05-09T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@LogicalThesis I own $LVRO. Its a roll up in Brazilian ag retail and they are the leader at 10% market share. It has great sponsors in $PAX and @friedberg s TPB. Brazilian farmers have high margins and are under penetrated for ag inputs. Meanwhile it trades for 3x EBITDA" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1657735865626513409) 2023-05-14T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Im at the $MKL meeting If anyone wants to meet up and chat please send me a DM" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1658810399007842304) 2023-05-17T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sitting in EWR heading back to Toronto shortly after a fun week at the $KFS / $MKL AGMs and moving my nephew back to NJ from Brown after his first year. I really enjoy spending time with smart kind and high quality people and this trip surpassed my expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1660310649665212417) 2023-05-21T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting deal for $KW and by extension $FFH.TO as they own 10% of $KW equity and coinvest in mortgages. Excerpt from Fairfax [----] Annual Report below" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1660618234096132096) 2023-05-22T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ACIPartnerhship Is there a read through for implied value on any of $FFH.TO s reinsurance businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1660972570093535235) 2023-05-23T11:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TyphonValue @NonObviously While we share some owners with $MKL / $BRK our marginal shareholder probably finds the right tail of an oil stock more attractive than $FFH.TO. Its an argument I totally appreciate but I do think its a sign return expectations are very high and opportunities plentiful" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1662543293899501570) 2023-05-27T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@stephen85217230 So 7-12 months unless we have deflation then never" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1663158544349249539) 2023-05-29T12:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JustinHayes_ Im guessing its because its not a pure insurance business and more like $MKL or $BRK. The main reason I think its so cheap is because people are hyper focused on the investments are ignoring how undervalued the insurance business is. Arguably getting it for free" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1667655702494560259) 2023-06-10T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NoonSixCap Take a look at $FFH.TO and Im curious to know if you like $GOOG better. I havent looked at GOOG in a long time and bought at a good price but unfortunately sold" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1668937501287804936) 2023-06-14T11:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BRL keeps rallying and $LVRO does not. Its a tailwind on the business reported in USD and should matter eventually. Any shareholders of $PAX out there One of the biggest reasons people avoid $LVRO is because they are worried about fraud. Seems like an edge for Patria fans" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1669079832628457473) 2023-06-14T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In case it wasnt clear $PAX is relevant because funds that they manage own 100m shares of $LVRO so their performance fee is tied to LVRO performance. @friedberg s TPB owns another 12m. I dont expect them to sell $10 so there really isnt much of a float at $6" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1669412858805796889) 2023-06-15T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FIH.U didnt have much of a discount until [----]. What changed Foremost the move to quants/screens ETFs dividend growth and crypto. For the active investors left there are much better short term opportunities with returns just as high as $FIH.U if the discount stays wide. @oliv_ierr @deusexdividend Trades at a historically low P/B multiple and will benefit from a weaker USD. Will probably benefit from multiple expansion and a bit of currency arbitrage too. @oliv_ierr @deusexdividend Trades at a historically low P/B multiple and will benefit from a weaker USD. Will probably benefit from" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1669853492108840962) 2023-06-16T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@vanckzhu @GrandTokamak I own some warrants. More of a long term play since they dont reflect much vol yet. $AMBI.WT looks particularly cheap vs the common. I also own $LVRO and $LVROW. Both seem like decent businesses but a lot of Brazil exposure and too illiquid for most investors so far" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1673323021052923906) 2023-06-26T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EconguyRosie I assume thats adjusted for the size of the business and inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1673339128845332482) 2023-06-26T14:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Things are getting interesting at $AMBI. Does anyone know if the $AMBI.WT are exercisable yet Still only trading at $0.45 w/ an $11.50 strike and almost [--] years to go to expiry" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1674566938280771584) 2023-06-29T23:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ptuomov @Secrets4stocks @IggyOnInvesting They just listed. Stock based comp on an IPO/merger would be unusually large. $PAX owns almost 90% and TPB most of the balance so they should be concerned with the shares going up and not overpaying for stock based comp. There are also a lot of M&A expenses b/c of the rollup" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1676312926557204484) 2023-07-04T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@pfadjebitda @oclmtl @stephen85217230 @CroweTarn @BillBrewsterTBB Fairfax can meanwhile build long term goodwill with clients who might return the favour when markets soften. I dont know if this is actually happening but the way Fairfax does business it makes sense to me. Maybe our combined ratio will underperform the comps but stay below 95" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1678185239431061506) 2023-07-10T00:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nope_its_lily I go to a lot of comedy shows movies and dinners with friends" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1678466024440471555) 2023-07-10T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@recursivecycles Its a good instinct to have. When to sell is a difficult decision. I think the index chase dynamic opens up the possibilities significantly higher multiples. I dont want to sell too early as it could get out of hand. Do you usually sell all at once or slowly" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1678716896047243264) 2023-07-11T10:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IOU.V Neuberger Berman Palos Capital and Fintech Ventures to Acquire IOU at C$0.22 per Share in an All-Cash Transaction https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/neuberger-berman-palos-capital-and-fintech-ventures-to-acquire-iou-at-c-0-22-per-share-in-an-all-cash-transaction-874918107.html https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/neuberger-berman-palos-capital-and-fintech-ventures-to-acquire-iou-at-c-0-22-per-share-in-an-all-cash-transaction-874918107.html" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1679839785655885829) 2023-07-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My understanding is that $FFH.TO is getting hit off of readthroughs from $PGR results which doesnt make sense to me. RBC is out with pieces that are constructive on P&C and reinsurance this morning. Including the table below which shows average Cat losses in H1 $PGR Catastrophe losses and development weigh on June [----] results. Despite poor June [----] PO rises to $208 -BofA https://t.co/4oJe6CO8yF https://t.co/sN8jw8OUiH $PGR Catastrophe losses and development weigh on June [----] results. Despite poor June [----] PO rises to $208 -BofA https://t.co/4oJe6CO8yF https://t.co/sN8jw8OUiH" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1679851248445530112) 2023-07-14T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@CroweTarn It doesnt make sense but I can see the fund managers who really dont understand what they own trimming after $IFC.TO and $PGR reporting bad numbers so close together. Ignoring that they also trade at 3x the multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1679989399193362433) 2023-07-14T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I appreciate @wabuffo trying to pointing out that $DFS is mostly down because of regulatory issues and the canceled stock buyback. The main reason $DFS stock has done well is the buyback. No one wants to own financials" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1681865308322004992) 2023-07-20T03:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Wubbebos Thats a good question. I think BV vs ROE is the main share price driver for $BRK.B $MKL & $FFH.TO. If they are buying shares back above BV ROE should increase commensurately which should increase the multiple. At 1.5x BV $BRK is pricing a 15% ER. $FFH.TO is pricing in 9%" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1682837842249039872) 2023-07-22T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WeWantYau @farnamjake1 Farnam Street Investments July [----] Client Letter" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1684251065779093511) 2023-07-26T17:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$CHW.TO is trying to loosely replicate the $ARES business plan in Canada. I think they eventually consolidate $ACD.TO and whoever else is willing to sell unfortunately their stock is trading too cheaply to grow through acquisition for now. H2 results should start to help. Ramping up on $ARES and $FFH.TO after enjoying two recent podcasts on them I own and know businesses similar to both but haven't spent time on either Ramping up on $ARES and $FFH.TO after enjoying two recent podcasts on them I own and know businesses similar to both but haven't spent time on either" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1684291983169163265) 2023-07-26T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JustinHayes_ @BillBrewsterTBB @cfrischer1 Does that include the 1.9m shares controlled via the total return swap Buybacks will really depend on how long the shares stay discounted. I think there are too many high return investment opportunities right now that increase durability and that may be delaying buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1684687633086029824) 2023-07-27T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "SEDAR+ is now live and its worse than I could have imagined. I spent one co-op term working for Bank of Montreal in software quality assurance [--] years ago so as an expert Im guessing they didnt consult anyone who uses the product. There is a new SEDAR coming and its called SEDAR+. What are the odds this goes smoothly 🤞🏽 https://t.co/NL8C41dxOv There is a new SEDAR coming and its called SEDAR+. What are the odds this goes smoothly 🤞🏽 https://t.co/NL8C41dxOv" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1685008399711252481) 2023-07-28T19:24Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements "@Bensin86027283 @VikingVan100 @BillBrewsterTBB @cfrischer1 Whats $WRB s float to market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1685009582853120000) 2023-07-28T19:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FFH.TO Q2 CC is set for Friday morning. In the last week consensus has dropped over $2 for the quarter to $32.20. Im firmly in the over camp. Estimating quarterly earnings for an insurance company is a mugs game so Im perfectly qualified to opine. $FFH.TO Q123E BV was $803.49. To calculate FTM we add the next [--] quarters of estimates at least (we could interpolate). I also forgot to subtract the dividend for the consensus so they are actually at US$949. Is US$1000 too high Will cat losses be bad this year Please vote https://t.co/LGEV1NuIEQ $FFH.TO Q123E BV was $803.49. To calculate FTM we" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1685621838250975232) 2023-07-30T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ragnarisapirate A lot of float businesses still arent getting credit like $FFH.TO or $GNW. Gold stocks are cheap but no natural buyers. Im on the $FISH.V BOD and I havent had one investor ask me about it" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1685622847329255424) 2023-07-30T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@oclmtl A lot have already reported and results have been mixed. $MKL has seen a similar decline in its estimates. Always a nice reminder that $FFH.TO is expected to earn twice as much at just over half the price" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1685641101074444288) 2023-07-30T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. Strange divergence between $GNW and $ACT over the last [--] days. $GNW owns 82% of $ACT and gets dividends and to use its tax losses against $ACT income. They use that cash flow to buyback stock. Its a pretty interesting special situation. I own some $GNW but not short $ACT. https://t.co/bU5Ns8aZTm Strange divergence between $GNW and $ACT over the last [--] days. $GNW owns 82% of $ACT and gets dividends and to use its tax losses against" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1686219001825734656) 2023-08-01T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ACT more than doubling its original $75m buyback with an additional $100m. Recall 82% of that goes back to $GNW which they also use for buybacks. They also beat Q2 consensus by [--] cents reporting $1.10 in EPS. $GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. https://t.co/HoFPR3leT4 $GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. https://t.co/HoFPR3leT4" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1686482955433046016) 2023-08-01T21:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MKL blew away consensus reporting $50 vs $18 for Q223. I havent looked at any of the research except low expectations. Consensus is for an 8% ROE. I assume they are aiming for 15% and it might be possible now that interest rates are higher. Another solid quarter from Markel $MKL. Higher rates are translating to the investment income while insurance keeps chugging along nicely. Ventures is becoming an ever brighter shining star for the company with very strong margins and profitability in the Q https://t.co/GrKSVPOeag Another solid quarter from Markel $MKL. Higher rates are translating to the" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1686878337333956608) 2023-08-02T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@PhillipsRelic @_gcsv_ @PhillipsRelic makes a lot of sense. Im at 85-15 now as I think $FIH.U is event driven near term as the Company should be very incentivized to close BV discount or at the very least pre-buy the performance fee due at year end. I think another SIB has better than a 50-50 shot" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1687584873488244736) 2023-08-04T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For a business analyst how the junior gold mining industry operates is confusing. The reverse is also true of JGM investors who find shrewd business moves confusing like $MKO.V building a pilot project to fund exploration instead of having to rely on public markets" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1689116647875850240) 2023-08-09T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In the last two days more $MKO.V has traded than the last three months. Thats still 1% of the company. This is a stock with a lot of shareholders like me. We buy on downticks (learned through trial and/or taught by Seth Klarman). The best guess is Wexford is the buyer" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1689405386376237057) 2023-08-09T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Wexford cant buy on upticks by regulation so its fascinating to watch all of these junior gold investors trying to understand what all of this volume without price movement means for technical analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1689405389538754560) 2023-08-09T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My long term position is in $LVROW warrants i.e. which have a strike or $11.50 and 4.5y to expiry. Those likely get exchanged for stock at some point and I plan to hold as long as the company is executing and the shares fairly valued" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1690350845768892417) 2023-08-12T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@PieterTobback Nope just educated guesses and for entertainment purposes only" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1690469467334037504) 2023-08-12T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Have to give it up to the $MKO.V buyer at $1.35. They are buying everything that is for sale. Thats a bullish signal for most sectors except for junior gold where investors think the market is efficient" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1692173116586549732) 2023-08-17T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@lebron_ex Yeah I think thats the opportunity. It is certainly heuristically challenged. But it also has secular growth market leadership and good sponsorship between $PAX and TPB @friedberg. A low cost of capital can really accelerate returns" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1692241470529413225) 2023-08-17T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mhdempsey @nachkari $AMZN hurdle rate of 4.4% over the next [--] years. Tough bet for me" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1693431149702291524) 2023-08-21T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@divine_dividend @profplum99 Plus the average active value focused investor is pretty bearish and they are the marginal buyer/seller" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1694880103119863922) 2023-08-25T01:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think the biggest difference between Buffett and Watsa is that $BRK has much more adherence to quality (although they both own $OXY) and size constraints which is very popular. $FFH.TO has an expected value and contrarian approach which remains unpopular. @GiuGiust @JimPGillies Fairfax has a business model similar to $BRK and $MKL - leverage insurance/float. However Fairfaxs execution especially on the investment side is completely different than BRK. Watsa and Buffett could not be more different. $FFH.TO is executing exceptionally well right now. @GiuGiust @JimPGillies Fairfax has a" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1695408995291251093) 2023-08-26T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@stephen85217230 About a third dont work out. Buffetts batting average is a lot higher and a skew towards quality helps make that the case but he can over pay at times which ultimately just lowers the returns. With the current set up at $FFH.TO mediocre equity investment returns will do" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1695606503493791758) 2023-08-27T01:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@stephen85217230 $FFH.TO has 2x the float to market cap / book value. Its such a head start to ROE vs $BRK or $MKL. The equity portfolio is arguably marked much lower as well because value stocks are cheap and the positions have been marked down in some cases. 10% equity returns = 20% ROE" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1695607291821670456) 2023-08-27T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Its reassuring to hardly lose any money when the market is down a lot. Its extremely frustrating to hardly lose any money when the market is up a lot" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1696595911361577101) 2023-08-29T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TII.V decides to sell to the Chairman for C$7.30 i.e. a 30% discount to book value after running a long process and after originally proposing a liquidation. I wonder how reflexive the outcome was based on where the stock traded post liquidation announcement" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1697560711411491068) 2023-09-01T10:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I dont think the 10.5% CAGR on $MCD since March [----] meets forward return expectations for most active investors now" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1698316541970845842) 2023-09-03T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GrandTokamak There is so much capital in passive and quant with the vast majority of active equity capital left trying to look like p/q so they can stay in business. The remaining active investors want lottery like returns. All need liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1698319702806671477) 2023-09-03T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sinstockpapi @GrandTokamak ESG anything with lumpy returns credit risk or not very liquid are generally more likely to trade cheap i.e. above average expected returns. So much active money is in energy because its a giant liquid market and the expectation is for lottery like returns" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1698324449039101983) 2023-09-03T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sinstockpapi Stifel has a [--] page primer on $PM out yesterday. Have you seen it" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1700123868973646207) 2023-09-08T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@deusexdividend Historical returns on search funds are very high for a host of reasons and the warranty insurance business also has high returns. The search fund business is inherently diversified so its many jockeys who have already proven to be exceptional. Its a probabilistic strategy" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1702086183541490023) 2023-09-13T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@deusexdividend Plus the tax losses financial leverage and decentralized management allow for quick and profitable growth. Capital allocation is a key part of the strategy. The only thing I think they probably shouldnt be doing is buying back stock. While its accretive it may slow growth" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1702087105319407909) 2023-09-13T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@o_wutang @valueterminal This is a quant being 100% honest" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1702142417749606736) 2023-09-14T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dampedspring How much has the recession that has been anticipated for at least a year made management teams already reconsider or delay capex and growth plans aiding the slowdown we have already seen in some sectors" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1702279133550498054) 2023-09-14T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Investors have forgotten about float after a period of low rates. Meanwhile $BRK bought Alleghany $BNRE was created to consolidate insurance businesses and $FFH.TO bought GIG. In every case the float was free and prints money in the current rate environment. More on float 👇🏽 Buffett taught investors - when evaluating P/C insurance co's they need to start with float. Its size cost return and prospects. Why is float no longer considered important Who is right Click the link to read my long-form post (part 1). $FFH.TO $BRK https://t.co/ebk2S557Ri Buffett taught investors - when evaluating P/C" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1703001845097005533) 2023-09-16T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its amazing the $FIH.U discount exists given these demographics. But also it makes total sense give the flight to quant and passive. Most people think the market is efficient so the discount means something is wrong but its just an opportunity for true long term investors" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1703078913872658940) 2023-09-16T16:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@oscar100_x Pretty dumb but you might be right. Classic value investor mistake. The fees when negotiated by OMERS $MKL etc almost a decade ago were not an issue until [--] years ago when the discount started. Thats why I think its because of passive and quant taking so much market share" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1703450834669891652) 2023-09-17T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@peter_mantas Besides $FFH.TO I dont own anything that has any real money benchmarked to it so my money is there. Unfortunately it just comes down to execution and capital allocation by management now as one cant depend on mean reversion by market forces. Those people are out of business" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1703890998810591255) 2023-09-18T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@hoosiergolf1 @augustusville @evfcfaddict $FFH.TO has a good shot in less than [--] months dont you think" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1704179258929643825) 2023-09-19T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@hoosiergolf1 @augustusville @evfcfaddict Plus I agree its way to cheap. The float to market cap ratio is incredible in this interest rate environment" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1704179556964294921) 2023-09-19T17:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$FFH.TO $FRFHF getting some attention from the Motley Fool. Starts at 35:00 but its light on details" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1705420949418381352) 2023-09-23T03:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BobMarl42515340 @oscar100_x Yeah but its been growing a lot faster than the stock price and at higher interest rates it makes a lot of money with not a lot of risk as combined ratios are below [---] by a wide margin for now. The BV growth seems fairly predictable so why not multiple expansion now" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1705435150954168441) 2023-09-23T04:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its a novel idea. The next step is finding investors willing to buy mining companies that are run like a real business because most junior gold investors have been trained to not like that very much. $MKO.V" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1708093549747507387) 2023-09-30T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ReturnsJourney Have you looked at $FFH.TO If so just curious why it was rejected if you care to share. Thanks" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1708320115966566685) 2023-10-01T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FFH.TO Q3 Benchmark Update Fairfaxs weight in the S&P/TSX Composite increased by 12bp over Q3 to 89bp making it the 34th largest component" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1708570598727721180) 2023-10-01T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The big bank asset managers are noticeably underweight $FFH.TO vs $IFC.TO for example which looks well represented (and for good reason). I think well notice in the share price if these funds start buying before the filings come out" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1708570605828645025) 2023-10-01T19:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sinstockpapi @boudnic24 $FFH.TO has a much higher float to market cap ratio and much lower P/B than $BRK & $MKL. I expect it will continue to outperform" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1708977600184353151) 2023-10-02T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@viggy_krishnan $FFH.TO. Trades BV. Benefits from higher for longer rates given 2x the market cap is invested in a low duration fixed income portfolio (mostly treasuries). Equity portfolio is dirt cheap. Canadian PMs benchmarked to S&P/TSX have to buy it given relative outperformance" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1709395579678114014) 2023-10-04T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Buffett and Gayner dispute the usefulness of BV because they want a low cost of capital so they can do deals. Ultimately if the businesses are much more valuable than BV it should show up in the ROE making BV very useful. Expected ROE at $FFH.TO is 15%+ so 1x BV is too low" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710064764947173426) 2023-10-05T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ohcapideas @MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Thats true and it does take more analysis to make a determination. When Buffett says book value doesnt matter he means looking at P/BV in isolation is dangerous without considering forward earnings power which is ultimately a forecast of free cash flow" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710073898681708683) 2023-10-05T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If you don't own $FFH.TO please take part in the poll and also let me know why below. I'm always looking for reasons why I'm wrong since it does happen more often than I would like No FFH but I do own $BRK No insurance in my port. No FFH but I do own $BRK No insurance in my port" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710107770702139878) 2023-10-06T01:40Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements "@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 $BRK also had an extreme valuation in the 90s which it also used to issue equity. Returns were higher when interest rates were normal. Thats the case again now. Whats your earnings forecast for $FFH.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710222187016184115) 2023-10-06T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Buffett says he regrets issuing equity but I guarantee you hes quite happy he bought all of that float with expensive paper. Fairfax has a lot of leverage via its own float but not much financial leverage otherwise" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710228926734152145) 2023-10-06T09:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Have you looked at the size of $FFH.TO s float and compared it to the market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710230841178173950) 2023-10-06T09:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MichaelGielkens @onebeggar @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Ultimately this is the major reason for the discount. Even though the $FFH.TO equity portfolio is free at this valuation investors want quality over value regardless of price" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710267912680800501) 2023-10-06T12:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MichaelGielkens @onebeggar @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 I dont think $MKL and $BRK are expensive just more expensive than $FFH.TO. They share the same pool of potential investors and ultimately the share price is supply vs demand. Not everyone cares about margin of safety to the same degree" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710276356041326930) 2023-10-06T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Philbert771 $FFH.TO is most similar to $BRK or $MKL so thats why I phrased it that way" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710303635500900377) 2023-10-06T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@hankdevjr Its not a Buffett clone. Neither is $MKL for that matter" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710309779136991291) 2023-10-06T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@hankdevjr $FFH.TO trades around book and it's fixed income portfolio is 2x the market cap. That seems like a high margin of safety to me. Prem has also said he will buy up to 1.2x BV and they have bought a lot of stock over the past few years" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710350900957466812) 2023-10-06T17:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Mattnkt9601 @SuperShahed @StockTalk416 Francis Chou is trying to do it. Arguably $KFS is doing it to with warranty businesses and a unique public search model. It takes time to compound not screw up and get to a meaningful size" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1710472660801446002) 2023-10-07T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS That does explain the discount but it doesnt explain valuations in the rest of the insurance sector. While there could be left tail surprises from cat losses there could also be right tail surprises from the investment portfolio. 20% ROEs are not out of the question" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711035332429225990) 2023-10-08T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@VikingVan100 @blondesnmoney Im not sure about the other two but $GNW has a mortgage insurance business (P&C) that it took public via $ACT. Its life insurance/long term care business does not distribute capital but $ACT pays a big dividend and has a buyback. $GNW also has a significant buyback in place" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711125872919388384) 2023-10-08T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 What are your earnings estimates and growth prospects for $FFH.TO based on" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711167701505179988) 2023-10-08T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Youre assuming that @VikingVan100 isnt being conservative with his estimate. I think he is and so are all of the other legitimate analysts covering $FFH.TO (Morningstar excluded). No one has any reason to put out an optimistic forecast when its 6x on the conservative one" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711178779719032925) 2023-10-09T00:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Please share these other ideas but also do they base half of their pre-tax expected income on interest from treasuries and low LTV mortgages" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711179249950892373) 2023-10-09T00:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@LogicalThesis @Plum_Capital My portfolio is probably close to half microcaps and nanocaps. A steady stream of investors who think the market is efficient / bored / tired of looking stupid are always selling. Its not much of the float but its impossible to find buyers on upticks so they just get cheaper" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711182462364127480) 2023-10-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 U/W profit is of course volatile in the short term but over longer periods markets adjust. Are you concerned about a short term drawdown more than the long term ROE $FFH.TO has historically traded at a large premium to book and its peers already do. That seems easier to reprice" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711186608483860670) 2023-10-09T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Clownbuck @Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 They have been reducing cat exposure as a % of total risk such that they expect underwriting profits to cover significant cat losses like we saw in Q3 last year with Hurricane Ian. If pricing gets worse as you predict premium growth will slow and return of capital increases" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711357665941639546) 2023-10-09T12:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Invesquotes $COST $HEI maybe I dont agree about the no natural owners comment. They are by definition the stocks that every quant owns and most active managers screen for because they have to keep up with quants. Once they become relevant in the benchmark index huggers join the party" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711366657694658624) 2023-10-09T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@leveredvalue @GunjanJS @WSJmarkets Im not an expert on benchmarks in India but it has outperformed the Sensex in USD which includes IPO costs and ongoing management/performance fees" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711380601364779287) 2023-10-09T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JustinHayes_ @leveredvalue @GunjanJS @WSJmarkets Thanks. I try not to attack anyone personally. It doesnt help the discourse. @leveredvalue is a smart guy. Im framing it as being honoured to be someones contra. Im having a crisis of confidence in a lot of my positions now so I agree with him a decent amount of the time 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711453302334869869) 2023-10-09T18:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 $MKL and $BRK do not have a smooth 15% ROE and still trade at a decent premium to BV. $FFH.TO issued equity to buy Allied World at 1.3x BV in [----] so your data is wrong. Plus reinvesting $3b in earnings a year can provide a lot of growth if underwriting slows" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711789587830378849) 2023-10-10T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Same business models and with a lot less float to market cap but they are all different. Lets check back in five years" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711818650737340631) 2023-10-10T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Thats partially because the equity returns were hampered by the hedges and positions were marked down because value investing was out of favour. It could change very quickly as income is reinvested in equities over the next few years" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1711819937415622952) 2023-10-10T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @Clownbuck Yeah they tend to have some adverse reserve development after an acquisition. I believe the period you are referring to occurred after the acquisition of Allied World. I assume this signals a conservative approach but everyone sees what they want to see" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1712071840909107692) 2023-10-11T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As @VikingVan100 pointed out to me whats amazing about this forecast is how $FFH.TO is able to grow BV so strongly despite a bond bear market. Most peers are going to get hit harder on BV with longer duration bond portfolios. Might keep the insurance market hard for longer" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1712435745883836700) 2023-10-12T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Loudrrmilk Yeah probably. Financial markets are dominant over gold" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1712908690137772470) 2023-10-13T19:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Morningstar increased its target on $FFH.TO from C$790 to C$970 as of yesterday. They also increased their earnings estimates dramatically but still the low estimate on street by far. Most quants have trouble analyzing lumpy 15s and Fairfax is no exception" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1715192769554035150) 2023-10-20T02:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If corporate credit spreads widen on recession confirmation $FFH.TO will have a chance to increase yield dramatically on its $40b fixed income portfolio. Every 100bps adds $18/share in pre-tax income. @VikingVan100 gives a big head start" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1715868571530568061) 2023-10-21T23:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@stephen85217230 @VikingVan100 How does that bet payoff" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1715890143255482735) 2023-10-22T00:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@oclmtl @VikingVan100 If premium growth does slow that should free up capital at the insurance subsidiaries which could be used to buy equities including their own stock or minority interests" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1715907589546836241) 2023-10-22T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ohcapideas I dont really care about the commentary. I just wish the earnings estimates were more realistic. I want to understand how the analyst gets to $58 in EPS for $FFH.TO in [----]. At least for $MKL he models growing earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1716081641326616708) 2023-10-22T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WRB is up 7%+ on strong earnings. They had only a [---] duration on their bond portfolio at the end of Q2 similar to $FFH.TO so managed some book value growth. Fairfax will take the bond hit in reported EPS so makes it harder for them to beat consensus but IFRS17 might offset. $WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Earnings Call Key Highlights: Financial Highlights Net income increased 45.7% to $334M. Return on equity was 19.8%. Operating income increased 30.1% to $367M. Operating return on equity was 21.7%. Net premiums written grew 10.5% to over $2.8B https://t.co/U5fgGlZdZ2 $WRB W. R. Berkley" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1716817667351613949) 2023-10-24T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "More great numbers from P&C insurers with $CB handily beating estimates. @ACIPartnerhship also posted about Munich Re increasing guidance. I think this all bodes well for $FFH.TO but its more complex than the comps. PSA: follow James if you care about financials $CB reported nice Q3 earnings. Specifically of note worthy was agriculture with underwriting year-to-date combined ratio to 91.7%. Chubb is the largest crop writer wrt premiums. Bodes well for $FFH.TO as they write nearly $1B in agriculture premiums. https://t.co/WI7x2BtKkt $CB reported nice Q3 earnings. Specifically of note worthy" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1716977158248177832) 2023-10-25T00:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I think $CB hasnt done much year because of their bond portfolio positioning as opposed to banking fears. BVPS growth is low despite strong earnings. Its still trading at a decent multiple of 1.6x. @Gugo907 This is a static [--] post portfolio so cant really adjust/ take profits / reallocate etc. TLT opened the year well. CB hit on the banking fears etc. all in all average must agree @Gugo907 This is a static [--] post portfolio so cant really adjust/ take profits / reallocate etc. TLT opened the year well. CB hit on the banking fears etc. all in all average must agree" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1716983733654311087) 2023-10-25T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WaterworldCapi1 Junior gold" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717152655280148785) 2023-10-25T12:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How much market share of active equities management do quants and pseudo-quants have" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717849721203531804) 2023-10-27T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Lllearning97 @VanIsleInvestor Have you tried analyzing it using their actual balance sheet and reasonable expectations for returns" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717850771306258757) 2023-10-27T10:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@GaelanHanlon No index funds are passive. Most active managers use screens to simulate quants since thats who they are competing with. I think a lot of people think quants and algorithmic trading are the same thing but Im referring to long term investing strategies" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717853374064845059) 2023-10-27T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@GaelanHanlon Passive and quant go hand-in-hand. Quants like quality and momentum which makes those stocks rise in the index. That makes all of the index huggers (most active managers) chase those same names which makes them rise more. Valuation doesnt factor in much it seems" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717858282839117916) 2023-10-27T10:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Im one of those idiots. I think the lack of passive quants liquidity can often make microcaps trade cheaper to intrinsic value vs liquid well covered large caps which often trade at or above IV. Its just a supply vs demand argument but the company has to ultimately execute" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1717998280490029494) 2023-10-27T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@CloneShameless @evfcfaddict @SchopenhauerCap I assume they are in no rush and that helps with the negotiation" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1719838464441467350) 2023-11-01T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CloneShameless @evfcfaddict @SchopenhauerCap With cash earning over 5% and the PIK at 6% nominally its an easy economic decision to hold the cash. It has optionality in the current environment. Plus its leverage on the counterparty who could probably redeploy at 12-15%+. Whats a fair split with those economics" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1719857003286110683) 2023-11-01T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@oclmtl @ACIPartnerhship @ohcapideas $MKL ticks all of the heuristic boxes for $BRK shareholders most importantly being quality. $FFH.TO s expected value investment style isnt popular at all" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1719919167015465280) 2023-11-02T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MariusFabry @AswathDamodaran I just dont know what the odds are of achieving that revenue growth. Seems like a tough bet but its worked out so far" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720046360500580722) 2023-11-02T11:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@haka702 What were the alternatives I would argue more expensive" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720058648041238532) 2023-11-02T12:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@haka702 I hope your eyes were opened to what an advantage it is to have a partner like Wexford" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720062331114107385) 2023-11-02T12:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@haka702 What was the market cap at the time and what percentage of life time revenue is silver" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720066921821839383) 2023-11-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@haka702 I find most of the quick takes are heuristic based as opposed to idiosyncratic and thats the case for the market as a whole and not just $MKO.V. If it makes you feel better some $FISH.V shareholders also didnt like the deal" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720085237584294128) 2023-11-02T14:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@6jykdryyb7 @ToffCap Not reliant on one big customer per se but $DIS is a big provider of licenses so thats a risk" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720095241058091082) 2023-11-02T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@oscar100_x Surprise was to the upside" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720257370360586721) 2023-11-03T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Close-ology works sometimes Its now a prime set-up for multiple expansion over the next 9m. Objectively 15%+ BV growth is likely for the next [--] years. PMs should be thinking about what that means for $FFH.TO s index weighting and what happens when it passes $IFC.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720274946369241528) 2023-11-03T03:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IFC.TO matters because its also a P&C insurer and most active managers are overweight Intact. Its very well run with great management but its BV is down a bunch this year and Q3 is no exception although raising equity to fund an accretive acquisition at 2.5x BV helped" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720288992564814203) 2023-11-03T03:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Jjs24Jjs @oclmtl @ACIPartnerhship @ohcapideas $MKL Thats a recent narrative change" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1720817308409413683) 2023-11-04T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney @VikingVan100 Most analysis I have seen on P&C insurance and balance sheet heavy financials compares P/B to ROE in their analysis. What do you use" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1721215059920114010) 2023-11-05T17:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FFH.TO Analyst updates post CC RBC maintains Outperform increases target to US$1020 maintaining 1x BV for ye [----]. Most importantly 2024E EPS increased to US$140 and 2025E introduced at US$150. Both north of consensus. Please add if you see any others" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1721539248883450349) 2023-11-06T14:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "CIBC maintains Outperformer increases PT to C$1700 reflecting a multiple of 1.2x P/B based on FTM BV. Increases 2024E EPS to US$128 from US$110. No [----] estimate yet" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1721584056054284785) 2023-11-06T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "By the end of November we should find out if $MBX.TO partner Sequel Pharma will proceed with attempting to commercialize Kinilytic but it seems cheap without it. Microbix Biosystems Inc. (TSX: MBX) (OTCQX: MBXBF) - Q&A with Harold Lei. via @YouTube https://youtu.be/2I-9UD3Zc14si=aZM_sSGtGSAk61XJ https://youtu.be/2I-9UD3Zc14si=aZM_sSGtGSAk61XJ" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1722784258782122313) 2023-11-10T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@CroweTarn @hemsky_capital @TidefallCapital The BVPS CAGR is a better comparison since $IFC.TO doesnt take their bond losses through the income statement like $FFH.TO does but have to adjust for dividends. The problem with Hemskys analysis is that its backwards looking. Its why quants miss the opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1722824740740448542) 2023-11-10T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FFH.TO and $FIH.U have done really well on their public Indian holdings this year. We might also get price discovery on Digit and BIAL when they have their respective IPOs in the next few years" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1724991954453230011) 2023-11-16T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In my experience most investors who look at $FFH.TO ignore the equity holdings assuming zero from capital gains. Not all of the gains are captured in BV b/c some are equity accounted but in that case the share of earnings is included. $EUROB alone has added $13/sh this year" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1725126254599307542) 2023-11-16T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AmadeusValue I assume it needs more capital/restructuring to work and thats easier to do while private. It might end up not working out but probabilistically they must think its a good bet. Most investors are deterministic so they will not like it" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1725879597252694476) 2023-11-18T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nachkari What if they file on $UBER" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1727778456031609142) 2023-11-23T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NonObviously Depending on PA size vs total comp that could be an interesting decision. $ELF.TO might be interesting for registered accounts. Could buy and immediately tender at purchase price and hopefully do better and then buy it back presumably cheaper" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1727902206744023496) 2023-11-24T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What are your reasons for why the discount exists" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728444135995052142) 2023-11-25T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@immeet26 Thats interesting. I think the investor bases have very little overlap. The only buyer of $FIH.U that also buys Indian stocks directly is Fairfax India. It would take investors who want active Indian exposure to buy $FIH.U and they dont seem to exist yet" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728474514126983409) 2023-11-25T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Bonhoeffer_KDS The fees existed when it traded at a premium to NAV so investor preferences have certainly changed but I think that also speaks to investors thinking they have better alternatives. Arguably fees have been prepaid for the next $9 of upside" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728476505276031280) 2023-11-25T18:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Which EM commodity based economies have strong currencies" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728525630667710666) 2023-11-25T21:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Thanks. Do you think the DXY is the best way to measure the USD It seems like the rest of the components all benefit from stronger currencies by being besties with the US. Im not sure what the alternatives are but gold BRL and INR are interesting to me" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728541457819062521) 2023-11-25T22:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nachkari @viggy_krishnan CAD still holds up pretty well when oil is weak because of the broader trade relationship. Canada is only 9% anyway. I think the DXY components will all weaken with the USD relative to gold and maybe BRL/INR. Indians own a lot of gold so its the same bet" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728543471634444653) 2023-11-25T22:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Yeah we are one of the few currencies in DXY that benefits from these trends but most of it is not resource rich. I find myself owning a lot of stocks that fit in with this macro theme but I think its because they are cheap absolutely" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728544973002313850) 2023-11-25T22:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@antoniombbf See other responses on performance fee please. Wrt your other comment you think they are marking the private businesses aggressively" [X Link](https://x.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1728550291249959166) 2023-11-25T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@BrownMarubozu Brown
Brown posts on X about $ffhto, $scrto, $megto, $cve the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +7.40%
- [--] Month [-------] +82%
- [--] Months [---------] +22%
- [--] Year [---------] +69%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [---] -25%
- [--] Months [---] +4.70%
- [--] Year [-----] +44%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.29%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +8.40%
- [--] Year [-----] +23%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks countries cryptocurrencies currencies technology brands social networks exchanges travel destinations automotive brands
Social topic influence $ffhto #1, $scrto #2, $megto, $cve, stocks #4390, $mkov, $brk #2, investment, insurance, $fihu #2
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @vikingvan100 @newcomerinvest @tidefallcapital @acipartnerhship @colesmead @akibaleisman @cfrischer1 @deepvalueco @bonhoefferkds @billbrewstertbb @mananainvesting @razoroil @bubleqe @bsilly3 @denverlabrador @inthemoneypod @sohaibab9 @valueventurez @jresourceinvest @beegjj
Top assets mentioned Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) Markel, Corp. (MKL) Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (AQN) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Quant (QNT) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Cheeseball (CB) Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Scroll (SCR) Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG) Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"CEO reconfirms confidence in tripling revenue run rate between F2019 to F2021 with increasing gross and net margins. $MBX.TO 6x FCF plus growth. Microbix Biosystems (TSX: MBX; OTCQX: MBXBF) - What is Viral Transport M. via @YouTube https://youtu.be/h3vvxYMjmLw https://youtu.be/h3vvxYMjmLw"
X Link 2020-11-29T02:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Another competitor of $ATTO is going public. $TIXT is growing fast has higher margins lower cost of capital and a dramatically higher valuation. The image is the competitive landscape from a recent $CNXC presentation. Digital customer experience innovator Telus International (Cda) Inc. sets terms for its #IPO. $TIXT Shares: [----] million Price Range: $23.00-$25.00 Market Cap: $6.1b-$6.7b Trade Date: Wednesday 2/3 https://t.co/Hjd6uUwRbD Digital customer experience innovator Telus International (Cda) Inc. sets terms for its #IPO. $TIXT Shares: [----] million Price Range: $23.00-$25.00 Market Cap:"
X Link 2021-01-26T13:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Parth29192 @TidefallCapital Might have entered into an inverse total return swap. If $FFH.TO can go long its own stock through a total return swap without disclosing it for purposes of SEDI why couldnt they have done the same with $BB I want to be long when they report Q1"
X Link 2021-03-06T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Maybe Bain & Co could pass on to Tiger the opportunity it's cousin Bain Capital created in $ATTO. Trading at only 4x EV/EBITDA vs peers ( $CNXC $TTEC $TIXT ) at 10-15x EV/EBITDA. Each multiple point adds over $10/share and the CXM sector is consolidating. "Tiger pays for its portfolio companies to access consultants at Bain & Co. who provide advice on things like how to launch a product in a new market." ".the company racked up an $18000 Zoom bill for the year." Great piece by @KateClarkTweets https://t.co/Xd7P0k7AS0 "Tiger pays for its portfolio companies to access consultants at Bain & Co."
X Link 2021-04-07T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Biggest volume in a month. Unfortunately thats still less than 25k shares. Biggest pushback I get on $ATTO from hedge funds is that its too illiquid to buy enough for the position to matter"
X Link 2021-04-14T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$IOU.V reported its Q1 results this morning. The income statement composition has changed quite a bit now that they are not warehousing loans on the balance sheet. After generating US$25m in loans in Q1 they are guiding to $165-200m for [----]. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/iou-financial-inc-reports-financial-results-for-the-three-month-period-ended-march-31-2021-810799745.html https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/iou-financial-inc-reports-financial-results-for-the-three-month-period-ended-march-31-2021-810799745.html"
X Link 2021-05-21T19:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$STLC.TO might have a Canadian steel comp soon. Warrants $LEGOW look interesting at these levels. $LEGO - SPAC Legato Merger gains on report in talks to take Canada's Algoma Steel public https://t.co/NzmOMk4SLW $LEGO - SPAC Legato Merger gains on report in talks to take Canada's Algoma Steel public https://t.co/NzmOMk4SLW"
X Link 2021-05-24T13:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Algoma Steel appears to be coming public pretty cheap at 1.9x EV/EBITDA but its not clear if they have the same assumptions as RBC in a recent note which shows $STLC.TO and peers trading much higher. Structure looks good at first glance. $LEGO $LEGOW https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/algoma-steel-and-legato-merger-corp-sign-definitive-merger-agreement-845434747.html $STLC.TO might have a Canadian steel comp soon. Warrants $LEGOW look interesting at these levels. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/algoma-steel-and-legato-merger-corp-sign-definitive-merger-agreement-845434747.html"
X Link 2021-05-25T02:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Tell me you know what an annuity is but not how to price it without telling me you know what an annuity is"
X Link 2021-06-16T14:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mehdi70501002 They think they are one of the lowest cost FWIW. They are going to use IPO proceeds for EAF conversion but that should lead to multiple expansion based on peer multiples. I only own small $LEGOW. Hope $STLC.TO does well too"
X Link 2021-06-26T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@FromValue $ELF.TO owns about 20% of its own shares through various holding companies. It acts like a total return swap under IFRS accounting"
X Link 2021-06-27T13:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"DiamondBack $FANG (mkt cap US$18b) had Wexford as its major shareholder when it ran its IPO in [----]. The Chairman is a former Wexford employee. Wexford is the controlling shareholder of $MKO.V and $FISH.V now but its not helping valuation yet. https://www.mrt.com/business/energy/article/Diamondback-Energy-continues-journey-to-7458284.php Best-performing #oil stocks in [----] (from S&P 500): Marathon Oil: 105% DiamondBack Energy: +96% Devon Energy: +89.1% Occidental: +81% Hess: +66.5% Exxon: +57.9% ConocoPhillips: +54.9%"
X Link 2021-07-06T11:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SultanAmeerali @cdnvaluestocks I dont think they needed it. It just made life a lot easier"
X Link 2021-07-18T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SultanAmeerali @cdnvaluestocks I own through $LEGOW"
X Link 2021-07-18T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@dwgg33 @kcerminara @IgnoreNarrative Lumber historically is a commodity I have struggled with (read: have been hurt before) so I havent put in the work here. I feel the same way about steel but I do own some $LEGOW. Is your long assuming the lumber price settles higher than the current price on strong demand"
X Link 2021-07-21T10:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Celebrating [--] years without institutional constraints. Areas to improve: Patience optimism sizing Strengths: Underwriting conviction Pre-tax returns to date: Composite (8/2012): 21.7% CAD (8/2012): 18.6% S&P/TSX TR: 8.7% USD (11/2012): 23.2% S&P [---] TR: 16.0% That being said Im sharing in case it encourages people to consider my ideas as I think they trade below intrinsic value vs some of the alternatives. LT returns to date: Composite (8/2012): 20.9% CAD (8/2012): 18.3% S&P/TSX TR: 8.1% USD (11/2012): 20.9% S&P [---] TR: 15.4% That being said Im sharing in case it encourages people to consider"
X Link 2021-07-31T18:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BuffaloBillCo @Plum_Capital @RocksOver @praxisprocess Thanks. Im pretty ignorant on steel so I would never take a big position. I own it through the $LEGOW and its about a 1.5% position. I like the risk/reward on the warrants more than the equity"
X Link 2021-08-06T23:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BuffaloBillCo This is a snippet of the $STLC.TO call a friend shot over. Despite my $LEGOW position its so cheap I havent listened to the call yet but this might explain some of the optimism"
X Link 2021-08-12T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@puppyeh1 @BuffaloBillCo Seems hard to get screwed which is why I own the $LEGOW. It was a 0.5% position when it started but now its 2.5% because of the capital appreciation. I mitigate the unknown unknowns through sizing"
X Link 2021-08-15T12:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I really enjoyed this podcast. Jason's characterization of the [----] housing market kind of reminds me of parts of this market. Illiquid assets are trading well below ever increasing intrinsic value and their aren't enough buyers to absorb the supply. Planet MicroCap Ep. [---] - Real Estate: Its Not [----] But Lets Talk with Jason Greenwald Full-time Private Investor @JGreenwald86 #Investing #Education #RealEstate YouTube: https://t.co/fToFSgE4Yt Audio: https://t.co/1hOVJoxXO6 Planet MicroCap Ep. [---] - Real Estate: Its Not [----] But Lets Talk with Jason Greenwald Full-time Private Investor"
X Link 2021-08-17T23:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think Canadian long only funds will care followed by Canadian passive funds which will probably bring the momentum funds along. I own a small position (2.3%) $LEGOW I own a (small) position here and am continuing to do work. This is a good summary; I think the risk is much less about the biz and more about the 'will anyone care' aspect. There is limited (no) prospect for capital returns imo.its just. really. really. cheap. I own a (small) position here and am continuing to do work. This is a good summary; I think the risk is much less about the biz and more about the 'will anyone care'"
X Link 2021-08-29T14:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MKO.V results show monthly cash flow of US$3.3m in July which should improve over time. $FISH.V is also lending US$8m to $MKO.V via gold loan which will give Mako flexibility to buy back stock if the BOD so chooses. Mako Mining Reports Second Quarter [----] Financial Results and Refinances Short-Term Debt $mko.v Mako Mining Reports Second Quarter [----] Financial Results and Refinances Short-Term Debt $mko.v"
X Link 2021-08-30T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its funny the sense I get for why people dont own $FFH.TO is because they expect Prem to bat [-----]. He was cancelled by Value investors but looks like an amazing risk reward for Expected Value investors. #EV @BillBrewsterSCG No one bats [-----]. No one. @BillBrewsterSCG No one bats [-----]. No one"
X Link 2021-09-05T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I did some analysis on my portfolio b/c the Top Ideas (TI) that represent 44% of my portfolio haven't done well Q2 to date. Win rate 70%+ TI YTD: 24% of TR TI Q2TD: 14% of TR Attribution Q2TD +/-: 📈 $ATU.V $ATTO $LEGOW 📉 $ASC (switched into $MKTWW) $PIF.TO $MDP.DB Update to Aug [--] Five months ago when I shared these ideas on @KYRRadio they represented 39% of my net worth vs 44% now. I own 30% more $ATTO and 90% more $MKO.V while the others are flat. All of the ideas are better risk/rewards now vs then. https://t.co/jtKAzWv31M Update to Aug [--] Five months ago when I shared these ideas on"
X Link 2021-09-07T02:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some interesting analysis on steel. Im not a commodity expert but there is logic to stronger for longer pricing in steel. I have exposure to $LEGO through $LEGOW which should close on the acquisition of Algoma Steel in Q4. It trades around 1x EBITDA pro forma on current prices Some thoughts about where i think the steel industry is headed. Would love to have a discussion and hear your thoughts. $CLF $MT $X $TX $LEGOW https://t.co/NtpDUVQ3DI Some thoughts about where i think the steel industry is headed. Would love to have a discussion and hear your thoughts. $CLF $MT $X $TX $LEGOW"
X Link 2021-09-08T15:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A $50 tender offer for $ATTO would be just as insulting as any opening salvo in a fantasy football trade proposal I have ever seen"
X Link 2021-09-12T15:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ragnarisapirate @RocksOver @FMetard @LynAldenContact Total Return Swap - instead of buying back stock they want long TRS so they didnt have to file buyback reports and they didnt have to use capital"
X Link 2021-09-12T16:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@eastdave902 @exileofthemain The total return swap was for a lot of stock"
X Link 2021-09-19T13:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"New ticker once the merger is complete for $LEGO / $LEGOW to be $ASTL / $ASTLW on Nasdaq and $ASTL.TO / $ASTL.WT on the TSX. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001860805/000119312521277172/d177997df4a.htm Some interesting analysis on steel. Im not a commodity expert but there is logic to stronger for longer pricing in steel. I have exposure to $LEGO through $LEGOW which should close on the acquisition of Algoma Steel in Q4. It trades around 1x EBITDA pro forma on current prices https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001860805/000119312521277172/d177997df4a.htm Some interesting"
X Link 2021-09-20T21:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$LEGOW / $ASTL meeting scheduled for October [--]. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/22/2301256/0/en/Legato-Merger-Corp-Announces-Date-for-Special-Meeting-to-Approve-Proposed-Business-Combination-with-Algoma-Steel.html New ticker once the merger is complete for $LEGO / $LEGOW to be $ASTL / $ASTLW on Nasdaq and $ASTL.TO / $ASTL.WT on the TSX. https://t.co/AYpF9orEPe https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/22/2301256/0/en/Legato-Merger-Corp-Announces-Date-for-Special-Meeting-to-Approve-Proposed-Business-Combination-with-Algoma-Steel.html New ticker once the merger is"
X Link 2021-09-22T12:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks @twebs for hosting Im excited for both of these Spaces as I own $ASTLW too. Some fellow $ATTO shareholders @Plum_Capital and @cfrischer1 have agreed to participate on Monday which is awesome as they are both insightful investors. Looking forward to it Our first two Single Stock Spaces are locked up Monday we will discuss $ATTO with @BrownMarubozu . $ATTO is a CRM/BPO trading at a big discount vs peers and M&A comps w/ a catalyst path to unlock the discount. Tuesday @BuffaloBillCo is brave enough to talk $STLC and $ASTL Our first two Single Stock Spaces are locked up Monday we will"
X Link 2021-11-06T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Akshay Shahs Kyma Capital Seeks $750 Million After Strong Gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/akshay-shah-s-kyma-capital-seeks-750-million-after-strong-gains https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-15/akshay-shah-s-kyma-capital-seeks-750-million-after-strong-gains"
X Link 2021-11-10T14:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"One of the few indices you want your positions to get kicked out of (but only because of multiple expansion). Great work as always @twebs I own some $ARCH $ASTLW directly and $STLC.TO $RFP indirectly through $FFH.TO. Finally I linked to my Substack articles where I have published but also to helpful threads or Substack articles from @aggresivevalue @puppyeh1 @Alpaca_Capital @AQR1485 @TwainsMustache @Plum_Capital @satorimind @KNLCBD Thanks to all of you for putting your work out there. https://t.co/Qb2FXot5Bq Finally I linked to my Substack articles where I have published but also to helpful"
X Link 2021-12-31T20:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@onbeyondinvest @praxisprocess @VieBuyer @hasilp89 @AndrewRangeley I bought some $STLC today. Its possible it stays weak until the SIB is done but I like the set up"
X Link 2022-01-05T03:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Im betting $FFH.TO outperforms $MKL over the next [--] years. If you had a minimum holding period of [--] years what [--] stock equal weight portfolio would you buy today Off the top of my head I'll go with: [--]. $MKL [--]. $MA [--]. $GOOG [--]. $CSU.TO [--]. $AMAT If you had a minimum holding period of [--] years what [--] stock equal weight portfolio would you buy today Off the top of my head I'll go with: [--]. $MKL [--]. $MA [--]. $GOOG [--]. $CSU.TO [--]. $AMAT"
X Link 2022-04-19T19:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My brother created this new crypto-based fantasy sports platform Gambit. It reminds me a lot of markets because it uses supply and demand to determine the price for athlete tokens. The tokens are then used in contests that can provide returns over and above capital appreciation"
X Link 2022-04-24T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MKL underwriting results bode well for $FFH.TO on Friday. Fairfax has less duration in its bond portfolio so might not get hit as hard on the mark to market. $MKL with a great q. Book value down of course due to investments marked to market but combined ratio of 89% is fantastic. Ventures rev up 35% and premiums earned up 17%. All looks pretty damn good to me. $MKL with a great q. Book value down of course due to investments marked to market but combined ratio of 89% is fantastic. Ventures rev up 35% and premiums earned up 17%. All looks pretty damn good to me"
X Link 2022-04-27T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$FFH.TO has a $1.3b stake in $EUROB (top [--] equity holding). Coincidentally it also trades around 5-6x earnings. If value is about to have a resurgence $FFH.TO should do exceptional on its equity portfolio given how many low multiple stocks it holds. Just like [----] [----]. Crisis and Opportunity are two sides of the same coin. At the Toronto Economic Forum yesterday CEO of @FFH_TO Prem Watsa stated that #Canada is the land of opportunity and shared his insights about why #Greece is on its way to becoming the best country in Europe to invest in. https://t.co/aBGBAPvGdu Crisis and Opportunity are"
X Link 2022-11-11T06:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@special_cheeese $MKO.V $MAKOF A Nicaraguan gold miner controlled by billionaire Chuck Davidson via Wexford Capital trading at 1x 2024E OpCF. Unsurprisingly Wexford paid prices more than 3x the current quote likely thinking 3x OpCF was solid margin of safety (I also thought that)"
X Link 2022-11-17T13:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So much $FANG love which was Wexfords oil vehicle they took public in [----] but a lot less love for $MKO.V which is its gold vehicle at what might be the beginning of a gold bull. @ 2x OpCF its not a demanding valuation. Imagine what they could do with a low cost of capital"
X Link 2022-12-20T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Stealing this chart from CoBF that shows the relative P/B of $FFH.TO vs $MKL and $BRK. Lots of room for momentum investors to close the gap while value investors sell as it hits new highs. RBC painting a positive picture for insurance stocks heading into [----] (while later cautioning that there might be reasons to fade the group in 2H) https://t.co/IEpBda5xfN RBC painting a positive picture for insurance stocks heading into [----] (while later cautioning that there might be reasons to fade the group in 2H) https://t.co/IEpBda5xfN"
X Link 2023-01-04T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Recall BMO values the Spring Valley royalty greater than $FISH.V s entire market cap (US$60m) or C$1.10/share. The remaining dividend paying corp will presumably be valued off of dividend yield. At a yield of 5-10% thats worth C$0.675-1.35/share. $fish.v Were going to look to separate our 3% NSR on the multi-million ounce Spring Valley project in Nevada from the rest of $fish.v We are also looking to increase our silver exposure (as we are a member of the $SILJ) while maintaining or raising our US$0.05/yr dividend. $fish.v Were going to look to separate our 3% NSR on the multi-million ounce"
X Link 2023-01-19T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ReganCoda @farnamjake1 @JunctionOctopus @TidefallCapital $FFXDF $FIH.U is still at 30% discount to BV and the biggest piece BIAL (the airport) is likely marked at a meaningful discount to FMV. It was better at 50% of NAV but still pretty good"
X Link 2023-01-20T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Highlighting this report on $FIH.U and specifically BIAL. I think the long term opportunity is to list BIAL or Anchorage in India and use the potential low cost of capital to grow faster and more accretively than $FFXDF can with its much higher cost of capital. Fairfax India currently trades at about 44% discount to NAV. But 45% of the NAV is its investment in Bangalore Airport. Read my deep dive on the valuation of Bangalore Airport and the resulting implication on Fairfax India's net asset value. $FIH.U https://t.co/7dhIoF9xOe Fairfax India currently trades at about 44% discount to NAV. But"
X Link 2023-01-24T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@brunswickstew92 @SantiagoAuFund $MAKOF is actually very profitable. Q4 will show cost reduction and FCF improvement. That should continue in Q1 on the higher gold price"
X Link 2023-01-27T12:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Both $FFH.TO and $FIH.U continued their buybacks in January. I wish both would be more aggressive"
X Link 2023-02-10T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once valuation is taken into consideration. $MKL $BRK $WRB It has worked before two years ago the other way around when switching Berkshire for Fairfax after the latter significantly underperformed. Berkshire now flat on one year basis $FFH.TO up 45% Havent done all the work. But could be an interesting switch. It has worked before two years ago the other way around when switching Berkshire for Fairfax after the latter significantly underperformed."
X Link 2023-02-21T02:51Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements
"@vanckzhu @CJ0pp3l @BrandonMBlum You guys buying any gold"
X Link 2023-02-21T03:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I bought some $CHW.TO since they reported earnings last week. Unsurprisingly there isnt a lot of demand for shares of a nonbank financial these days. The stock has strong returns historically via dividends (6.7% yield) looks cheap on valuation and has a motivated CEO"
X Link 2023-03-22T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every time I listen to a macro interview I get excited about what in my portfolio benefits from their view. Russell didnt disappoint Short duration/hard asset owning $FFH.TO gold producer $MKO.V and LATAM ag retailer $LVRO alll seem well positioned and catalyst heavy. TW we welcome Russell Clark to the show to talk about his macro process and why Asia is more important than most market participants realize. Then @jam_croissant joins to talk 0DTE options why they are so popular and how the volatility market is set up for the coming months. TW we welcome Russell Clark to the show to talk about"
X Link 2023-03-26T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO has me owning the common for a trade in front of analyst coverage / marketing"
X Link 2023-03-26T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@OptionAlpha3 I think the implied volatility are low for all of them which is partly why I own all of them. $LVRO and $SLND warrants rerated once the mergers were completed but the $AMBI ones havent. My theory is they are just cheap but looking for a better explanation"
X Link 2023-04-11T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LVROW showing a pick up in volume which is hopefully a precursor for the common. Sensible strategy to load up on warrants before buying the stock. In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO has me owning the common for a trade in front of analyst coverage / marketing. In full disclosure my LT position in $LVRO is expressed through $LVROW given it seems like way too cheap 5y optionality on what seems like a secular growth story. The sell off post IPO"
X Link 2023-04-13T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great work by Viking as usual over at CoBF comparing $FFH.TO to $MKL and $WRB. There is a lot more to the analysis than just the table below but seems like a good idea for long/short funds to be long Fairfax vs the other two. $FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once valuation is taken into consideration. $MKL $BRK $WRB https://t.co/BJYcj9OlJH $FFH.TO $FRFHF has outperformed some of its peers over the past few years but it has a lot of catching up to do and that becomes pretty clear once"
X Link 2023-05-09T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LogicalThesis I own $LVRO. Its a roll up in Brazilian ag retail and they are the leader at 10% market share. It has great sponsors in $PAX and @friedberg s TPB. Brazilian farmers have high margins and are under penetrated for ag inputs. Meanwhile it trades for 3x EBITDA"
X Link 2023-05-14T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Im at the $MKL meeting If anyone wants to meet up and chat please send me a DM"
X Link 2023-05-17T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sitting in EWR heading back to Toronto shortly after a fun week at the $KFS / $MKL AGMs and moving my nephew back to NJ from Brown after his first year. I really enjoy spending time with smart kind and high quality people and this trip surpassed my expectations"
X Link 2023-05-21T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting deal for $KW and by extension $FFH.TO as they own 10% of $KW equity and coinvest in mortgages. Excerpt from Fairfax [----] Annual Report below"
X Link 2023-05-22T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ACIPartnerhship Is there a read through for implied value on any of $FFH.TO s reinsurance businesses"
X Link 2023-05-23T11:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TyphonValue @NonObviously While we share some owners with $MKL / $BRK our marginal shareholder probably finds the right tail of an oil stock more attractive than $FFH.TO. Its an argument I totally appreciate but I do think its a sign return expectations are very high and opportunities plentiful"
X Link 2023-05-27T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stephen85217230 So 7-12 months unless we have deflation then never"
X Link 2023-05-29T12:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JustinHayes_ Im guessing its because its not a pure insurance business and more like $MKL or $BRK. The main reason I think its so cheap is because people are hyper focused on the investments are ignoring how undervalued the insurance business is. Arguably getting it for free"
X Link 2023-06-10T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NoonSixCap Take a look at $FFH.TO and Im curious to know if you like $GOOG better. I havent looked at GOOG in a long time and bought at a good price but unfortunately sold"
X Link 2023-06-14T11:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BRL keeps rallying and $LVRO does not. Its a tailwind on the business reported in USD and should matter eventually. Any shareholders of $PAX out there One of the biggest reasons people avoid $LVRO is because they are worried about fraud. Seems like an edge for Patria fans"
X Link 2023-06-14T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In case it wasnt clear $PAX is relevant because funds that they manage own 100m shares of $LVRO so their performance fee is tied to LVRO performance. @friedberg s TPB owns another 12m. I dont expect them to sell $10 so there really isnt much of a float at $6"
X Link 2023-06-15T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FIH.U didnt have much of a discount until [----]. What changed Foremost the move to quants/screens ETFs dividend growth and crypto. For the active investors left there are much better short term opportunities with returns just as high as $FIH.U if the discount stays wide. @oliv_ierr @deusexdividend Trades at a historically low P/B multiple and will benefit from a weaker USD. Will probably benefit from multiple expansion and a bit of currency arbitrage too. @oliv_ierr @deusexdividend Trades at a historically low P/B multiple and will benefit from a weaker USD. Will probably benefit from"
X Link 2023-06-16T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@vanckzhu @GrandTokamak I own some warrants. More of a long term play since they dont reflect much vol yet. $AMBI.WT looks particularly cheap vs the common. I also own $LVRO and $LVROW. Both seem like decent businesses but a lot of Brazil exposure and too illiquid for most investors so far"
X Link 2023-06-26T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EconguyRosie I assume thats adjusted for the size of the business and inflation"
X Link 2023-06-26T14:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Things are getting interesting at $AMBI. Does anyone know if the $AMBI.WT are exercisable yet Still only trading at $0.45 w/ an $11.50 strike and almost [--] years to go to expiry"
X Link 2023-06-29T23:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ptuomov @Secrets4stocks @IggyOnInvesting They just listed. Stock based comp on an IPO/merger would be unusually large. $PAX owns almost 90% and TPB most of the balance so they should be concerned with the shares going up and not overpaying for stock based comp. There are also a lot of M&A expenses b/c of the rollup"
X Link 2023-07-04T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@pfadjebitda @oclmtl @stephen85217230 @CroweTarn @BillBrewsterTBB Fairfax can meanwhile build long term goodwill with clients who might return the favour when markets soften. I dont know if this is actually happening but the way Fairfax does business it makes sense to me. Maybe our combined ratio will underperform the comps but stay below 95"
X Link 2023-07-10T00:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nope_its_lily I go to a lot of comedy shows movies and dinners with friends"
X Link 2023-07-10T18:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@recursivecycles Its a good instinct to have. When to sell is a difficult decision. I think the index chase dynamic opens up the possibilities significantly higher multiples. I dont want to sell too early as it could get out of hand. Do you usually sell all at once or slowly"
X Link 2023-07-11T10:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IOU.V Neuberger Berman Palos Capital and Fintech Ventures to Acquire IOU at C$0.22 per Share in an All-Cash Transaction https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/neuberger-berman-palos-capital-and-fintech-ventures-to-acquire-iou-at-c-0-22-per-share-in-an-all-cash-transaction-874918107.html https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/neuberger-berman-palos-capital-and-fintech-ventures-to-acquire-iou-at-c-0-22-per-share-in-an-all-cash-transaction-874918107.html"
X Link 2023-07-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My understanding is that $FFH.TO is getting hit off of readthroughs from $PGR results which doesnt make sense to me. RBC is out with pieces that are constructive on P&C and reinsurance this morning. Including the table below which shows average Cat losses in H1 $PGR Catastrophe losses and development weigh on June [----] results. Despite poor June [----] PO rises to $208 -BofA https://t.co/4oJe6CO8yF https://t.co/sN8jw8OUiH $PGR Catastrophe losses and development weigh on June [----] results. Despite poor June [----] PO rises to $208 -BofA https://t.co/4oJe6CO8yF https://t.co/sN8jw8OUiH"
X Link 2023-07-14T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CroweTarn It doesnt make sense but I can see the fund managers who really dont understand what they own trimming after $IFC.TO and $PGR reporting bad numbers so close together. Ignoring that they also trade at 3x the multiple"
X Link 2023-07-14T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I appreciate @wabuffo trying to pointing out that $DFS is mostly down because of regulatory issues and the canceled stock buyback. The main reason $DFS stock has done well is the buyback. No one wants to own financials"
X Link 2023-07-20T03:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Wubbebos Thats a good question. I think BV vs ROE is the main share price driver for $BRK.B $MKL & $FFH.TO. If they are buying shares back above BV ROE should increase commensurately which should increase the multiple. At 1.5x BV $BRK is pricing a 15% ER. $FFH.TO is pricing in 9%"
X Link 2023-07-22T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WeWantYau @farnamjake1 Farnam Street Investments July [----] Client Letter"
X Link 2023-07-26T17:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$CHW.TO is trying to loosely replicate the $ARES business plan in Canada. I think they eventually consolidate $ACD.TO and whoever else is willing to sell unfortunately their stock is trading too cheaply to grow through acquisition for now. H2 results should start to help. Ramping up on $ARES and $FFH.TO after enjoying two recent podcasts on them I own and know businesses similar to both but haven't spent time on either Ramping up on $ARES and $FFH.TO after enjoying two recent podcasts on them I own and know businesses similar to both but haven't spent time on either"
X Link 2023-07-26T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JustinHayes_ @BillBrewsterTBB @cfrischer1 Does that include the 1.9m shares controlled via the total return swap Buybacks will really depend on how long the shares stay discounted. I think there are too many high return investment opportunities right now that increase durability and that may be delaying buybacks"
X Link 2023-07-27T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"SEDAR+ is now live and its worse than I could have imagined. I spent one co-op term working for Bank of Montreal in software quality assurance [--] years ago so as an expert Im guessing they didnt consult anyone who uses the product. There is a new SEDAR coming and its called SEDAR+. What are the odds this goes smoothly 🤞🏽 https://t.co/NL8C41dxOv There is a new SEDAR coming and its called SEDAR+. What are the odds this goes smoothly 🤞🏽 https://t.co/NL8C41dxOv"
X Link 2023-07-28T19:24Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements
"@Bensin86027283 @VikingVan100 @BillBrewsterTBB @cfrischer1 Whats $WRB s float to market cap"
X Link 2023-07-28T19:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FFH.TO Q2 CC is set for Friday morning. In the last week consensus has dropped over $2 for the quarter to $32.20. Im firmly in the over camp. Estimating quarterly earnings for an insurance company is a mugs game so Im perfectly qualified to opine. $FFH.TO Q123E BV was $803.49. To calculate FTM we add the next [--] quarters of estimates at least (we could interpolate). I also forgot to subtract the dividend for the consensus so they are actually at US$949. Is US$1000 too high Will cat losses be bad this year Please vote https://t.co/LGEV1NuIEQ $FFH.TO Q123E BV was $803.49. To calculate FTM we"
X Link 2023-07-30T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ragnarisapirate A lot of float businesses still arent getting credit like $FFH.TO or $GNW. Gold stocks are cheap but no natural buyers. Im on the $FISH.V BOD and I havent had one investor ask me about it"
X Link 2023-07-30T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@oclmtl A lot have already reported and results have been mixed. $MKL has seen a similar decline in its estimates. Always a nice reminder that $FFH.TO is expected to earn twice as much at just over half the price"
X Link 2023-07-30T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. Strange divergence between $GNW and $ACT over the last [--] days. $GNW owns 82% of $ACT and gets dividends and to use its tax losses against $ACT income. They use that cash flow to buyback stock. Its a pretty interesting special situation. I own some $GNW but not short $ACT. https://t.co/bU5Ns8aZTm Strange divergence between $GNW and $ACT over the last [--] days. $GNW owns 82% of $ACT and gets dividends and to use its tax losses against"
X Link 2023-08-01T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ACT more than doubling its original $75m buyback with an additional $100m. Recall 82% of that goes back to $GNW which they also use for buybacks. They also beat Q2 consensus by [--] cents reporting $1.10 in EPS. $GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. https://t.co/HoFPR3leT4 $GNW doubling its original $350m buyback. They bought another $84m worth of stock in the last three months accelerating the pace and yet $ACT still outperformed. https://t.co/HoFPR3leT4"
X Link 2023-08-01T21:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MKL blew away consensus reporting $50 vs $18 for Q223. I havent looked at any of the research except low expectations. Consensus is for an 8% ROE. I assume they are aiming for 15% and it might be possible now that interest rates are higher. Another solid quarter from Markel $MKL. Higher rates are translating to the investment income while insurance keeps chugging along nicely. Ventures is becoming an ever brighter shining star for the company with very strong margins and profitability in the Q https://t.co/GrKSVPOeag Another solid quarter from Markel $MKL. Higher rates are translating to the"
X Link 2023-08-02T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@PhillipsRelic @gcsv @PhillipsRelic makes a lot of sense. Im at 85-15 now as I think $FIH.U is event driven near term as the Company should be very incentivized to close BV discount or at the very least pre-buy the performance fee due at year end. I think another SIB has better than a 50-50 shot"
X Link 2023-08-04T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For a business analyst how the junior gold mining industry operates is confusing. The reverse is also true of JGM investors who find shrewd business moves confusing like $MKO.V building a pilot project to fund exploration instead of having to rely on public markets"
X Link 2023-08-09T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In the last two days more $MKO.V has traded than the last three months. Thats still 1% of the company. This is a stock with a lot of shareholders like me. We buy on downticks (learned through trial and/or taught by Seth Klarman). The best guess is Wexford is the buyer"
X Link 2023-08-09T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Wexford cant buy on upticks by regulation so its fascinating to watch all of these junior gold investors trying to understand what all of this volume without price movement means for technical analysis"
X Link 2023-08-09T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My long term position is in $LVROW warrants i.e. which have a strike or $11.50 and 4.5y to expiry. Those likely get exchanged for stock at some point and I plan to hold as long as the company is executing and the shares fairly valued"
X Link 2023-08-12T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PieterTobback Nope just educated guesses and for entertainment purposes only"
X Link 2023-08-12T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Have to give it up to the $MKO.V buyer at $1.35. They are buying everything that is for sale. Thats a bullish signal for most sectors except for junior gold where investors think the market is efficient"
X Link 2023-08-17T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@lebron_ex Yeah I think thats the opportunity. It is certainly heuristically challenged. But it also has secular growth market leadership and good sponsorship between $PAX and TPB @friedberg. A low cost of capital can really accelerate returns"
X Link 2023-08-17T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mhdempsey @nachkari $AMZN hurdle rate of 4.4% over the next [--] years. Tough bet for me"
X Link 2023-08-21T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@divine_dividend @profplum99 Plus the average active value focused investor is pretty bearish and they are the marginal buyer/seller"
X Link 2023-08-25T01:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think the biggest difference between Buffett and Watsa is that $BRK has much more adherence to quality (although they both own $OXY) and size constraints which is very popular. $FFH.TO has an expected value and contrarian approach which remains unpopular. @GiuGiust @JimPGillies Fairfax has a business model similar to $BRK and $MKL - leverage insurance/float. However Fairfaxs execution especially on the investment side is completely different than BRK. Watsa and Buffett could not be more different. $FFH.TO is executing exceptionally well right now. @GiuGiust @JimPGillies Fairfax has a"
X Link 2023-08-26T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@stephen85217230 About a third dont work out. Buffetts batting average is a lot higher and a skew towards quality helps make that the case but he can over pay at times which ultimately just lowers the returns. With the current set up at $FFH.TO mediocre equity investment returns will do"
X Link 2023-08-27T01:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@stephen85217230 $FFH.TO has 2x the float to market cap / book value. Its such a head start to ROE vs $BRK or $MKL. The equity portfolio is arguably marked much lower as well because value stocks are cheap and the positions have been marked down in some cases. 10% equity returns = 20% ROE"
X Link 2023-08-27T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its reassuring to hardly lose any money when the market is down a lot. Its extremely frustrating to hardly lose any money when the market is up a lot"
X Link 2023-08-29T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TII.V decides to sell to the Chairman for C$7.30 i.e. a 30% discount to book value after running a long process and after originally proposing a liquidation. I wonder how reflexive the outcome was based on where the stock traded post liquidation announcement"
X Link 2023-09-01T10:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I dont think the 10.5% CAGR on $MCD since March [----] meets forward return expectations for most active investors now"
X Link 2023-09-03T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GrandTokamak There is so much capital in passive and quant with the vast majority of active equity capital left trying to look like p/q so they can stay in business. The remaining active investors want lottery like returns. All need liquidity"
X Link 2023-09-03T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sinstockpapi @GrandTokamak ESG anything with lumpy returns credit risk or not very liquid are generally more likely to trade cheap i.e. above average expected returns. So much active money is in energy because its a giant liquid market and the expectation is for lottery like returns"
X Link 2023-09-03T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sinstockpapi Stifel has a [--] page primer on $PM out yesterday. Have you seen it"
X Link 2023-09-08T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@deusexdividend Historical returns on search funds are very high for a host of reasons and the warranty insurance business also has high returns. The search fund business is inherently diversified so its many jockeys who have already proven to be exceptional. Its a probabilistic strategy"
X Link 2023-09-13T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@deusexdividend Plus the tax losses financial leverage and decentralized management allow for quick and profitable growth. Capital allocation is a key part of the strategy. The only thing I think they probably shouldnt be doing is buying back stock. While its accretive it may slow growth"
X Link 2023-09-13T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@o_wutang @valueterminal This is a quant being 100% honest"
X Link 2023-09-14T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dampedspring How much has the recession that has been anticipated for at least a year made management teams already reconsider or delay capex and growth plans aiding the slowdown we have already seen in some sectors"
X Link 2023-09-14T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Investors have forgotten about float after a period of low rates. Meanwhile $BRK bought Alleghany $BNRE was created to consolidate insurance businesses and $FFH.TO bought GIG. In every case the float was free and prints money in the current rate environment. More on float 👇🏽 Buffett taught investors - when evaluating P/C insurance co's they need to start with float. Its size cost return and prospects. Why is float no longer considered important Who is right Click the link to read my long-form post (part 1). $FFH.TO $BRK https://t.co/ebk2S557Ri Buffett taught investors - when evaluating P/C"
X Link 2023-09-16T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its amazing the $FIH.U discount exists given these demographics. But also it makes total sense give the flight to quant and passive. Most people think the market is efficient so the discount means something is wrong but its just an opportunity for true long term investors"
X Link 2023-09-16T16:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@oscar100_x Pretty dumb but you might be right. Classic value investor mistake. The fees when negotiated by OMERS $MKL etc almost a decade ago were not an issue until [--] years ago when the discount started. Thats why I think its because of passive and quant taking so much market share"
X Link 2023-09-17T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@peter_mantas Besides $FFH.TO I dont own anything that has any real money benchmarked to it so my money is there. Unfortunately it just comes down to execution and capital allocation by management now as one cant depend on mean reversion by market forces. Those people are out of business"
X Link 2023-09-18T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hoosiergolf1 @augustusville @evfcfaddict $FFH.TO has a good shot in less than [--] months dont you think"
X Link 2023-09-19T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@hoosiergolf1 @augustusville @evfcfaddict Plus I agree its way to cheap. The float to market cap ratio is incredible in this interest rate environment"
X Link 2023-09-19T17:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$FFH.TO $FRFHF getting some attention from the Motley Fool. Starts at 35:00 but its light on details"
X Link 2023-09-23T03:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BobMarl42515340 @oscar100_x Yeah but its been growing a lot faster than the stock price and at higher interest rates it makes a lot of money with not a lot of risk as combined ratios are below [---] by a wide margin for now. The BV growth seems fairly predictable so why not multiple expansion now"
X Link 2023-09-23T04:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its a novel idea. The next step is finding investors willing to buy mining companies that are run like a real business because most junior gold investors have been trained to not like that very much. $MKO.V"
X Link 2023-09-30T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ReturnsJourney Have you looked at $FFH.TO If so just curious why it was rejected if you care to share. Thanks"
X Link 2023-10-01T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FFH.TO Q3 Benchmark Update Fairfaxs weight in the S&P/TSX Composite increased by 12bp over Q3 to 89bp making it the 34th largest component"
X Link 2023-10-01T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The big bank asset managers are noticeably underweight $FFH.TO vs $IFC.TO for example which looks well represented (and for good reason). I think well notice in the share price if these funds start buying before the filings come out"
X Link 2023-10-01T19:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sinstockpapi @boudnic24 $FFH.TO has a much higher float to market cap ratio and much lower P/B than $BRK & $MKL. I expect it will continue to outperform"
X Link 2023-10-02T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@viggy_krishnan $FFH.TO. Trades BV. Benefits from higher for longer rates given 2x the market cap is invested in a low duration fixed income portfolio (mostly treasuries). Equity portfolio is dirt cheap. Canadian PMs benchmarked to S&P/TSX have to buy it given relative outperformance"
X Link 2023-10-04T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Buffett and Gayner dispute the usefulness of BV because they want a low cost of capital so they can do deals. Ultimately if the businesses are much more valuable than BV it should show up in the ROE making BV very useful. Expected ROE at $FFH.TO is 15%+ so 1x BV is too low"
X Link 2023-10-05T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ohcapideas @MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Thats true and it does take more analysis to make a determination. When Buffett says book value doesnt matter he means looking at P/BV in isolation is dangerous without considering forward earnings power which is ultimately a forecast of free cash flow"
X Link 2023-10-05T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If you don't own $FFH.TO please take part in the poll and also let me know why below. I'm always looking for reasons why I'm wrong since it does happen more often than I would like No FFH but I do own $BRK No insurance in my port. No FFH but I do own $BRK No insurance in my port"
X Link 2023-10-06T01:40Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 $BRK also had an extreme valuation in the 90s which it also used to issue equity. Returns were higher when interest rates were normal. Thats the case again now. Whats your earnings forecast for $FFH.TO"
X Link 2023-10-06T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Buffett says he regrets issuing equity but I guarantee you hes quite happy he bought all of that float with expensive paper. Fairfax has a lot of leverage via its own float but not much financial leverage otherwise"
X Link 2023-10-06T09:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Have you looked at the size of $FFH.TO s float and compared it to the market cap"
X Link 2023-10-06T09:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @onebeggar @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Ultimately this is the major reason for the discount. Even though the $FFH.TO equity portfolio is free at this valuation investors want quality over value regardless of price"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelGielkens @onebeggar @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 I dont think $MKL and $BRK are expensive just more expensive than $FFH.TO. They share the same pool of potential investors and ultimately the share price is supply vs demand. Not everyone cares about margin of safety to the same degree"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Philbert771 $FFH.TO is most similar to $BRK or $MKL so thats why I phrased it that way"
X Link 2023-10-06T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hankdevjr Its not a Buffett clone. Neither is $MKL for that matter"
X Link 2023-10-06T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hankdevjr $FFH.TO trades around book and it's fixed income portfolio is 2x the market cap. That seems like a high margin of safety to me. Prem has also said he will buy up to 1.2x BV and they have bought a lot of stock over the past few years"
X Link 2023-10-06T17:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mattnkt9601 @SuperShahed @StockTalk416 Francis Chou is trying to do it. Arguably $KFS is doing it to with warranty businesses and a unique public search model. It takes time to compound not screw up and get to a meaningful size"
X Link 2023-10-07T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS That does explain the discount but it doesnt explain valuations in the rest of the insurance sector. While there could be left tail surprises from cat losses there could also be right tail surprises from the investment portfolio. 20% ROEs are not out of the question"
X Link 2023-10-08T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@VikingVan100 @blondesnmoney Im not sure about the other two but $GNW has a mortgage insurance business (P&C) that it took public via $ACT. Its life insurance/long term care business does not distribute capital but $ACT pays a big dividend and has a buyback. $GNW also has a significant buyback in place"
X Link 2023-10-08T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 What are your earnings estimates and growth prospects for $FFH.TO based on"
X Link 2023-10-08T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Youre assuming that @VikingVan100 isnt being conservative with his estimate. I think he is and so are all of the other legitimate analysts covering $FFH.TO (Morningstar excluded). No one has any reason to put out an optimistic forecast when its 6x on the conservative one"
X Link 2023-10-09T00:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Please share these other ideas but also do they base half of their pre-tax expected income on interest from treasuries and low LTV mortgages"
X Link 2023-10-09T00:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@LogicalThesis @Plum_Capital My portfolio is probably close to half microcaps and nanocaps. A steady stream of investors who think the market is efficient / bored / tired of looking stupid are always selling. Its not much of the float but its impossible to find buyers on upticks so they just get cheaper"
X Link 2023-10-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 U/W profit is of course volatile in the short term but over longer periods markets adjust. Are you concerned about a short term drawdown more than the long term ROE $FFH.TO has historically traded at a large premium to book and its peers already do. That seems easier to reprice"
X Link 2023-10-09T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Clownbuck @Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 They have been reducing cat exposure as a % of total risk such that they expect underwriting profits to cover significant cat losses like we saw in Q3 last year with Hurricane Ian. If pricing gets worse as you predict premium growth will slow and return of capital increases"
X Link 2023-10-09T12:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Invesquotes $COST $HEI maybe I dont agree about the no natural owners comment. They are by definition the stocks that every quant owns and most active managers screen for because they have to keep up with quants. Once they become relevant in the benchmark index huggers join the party"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@leveredvalue @GunjanJS @WSJmarkets Im not an expert on benchmarks in India but it has outperformed the Sensex in USD which includes IPO costs and ongoing management/performance fees"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JustinHayes_ @leveredvalue @GunjanJS @WSJmarkets Thanks. I try not to attack anyone personally. It doesnt help the discourse. @leveredvalue is a smart guy. Im framing it as being honoured to be someones contra. Im having a crisis of confidence in a lot of my positions now so I agree with him a decent amount of the time 😂"
X Link 2023-10-09T18:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 $MKL and $BRK do not have a smooth 15% ROE and still trade at a decent premium to BV. $FFH.TO issued equity to buy Allied World at 1.3x BV in [----] so your data is wrong. Plus reinvesting $3b in earnings a year can provide a lot of growth if underwriting slows"
X Link 2023-10-10T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Same business models and with a lot less float to market cap but they are all different. Lets check back in five years"
X Link 2023-10-10T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @VikingVan100 Thats partially because the equity returns were hampered by the hedges and positions were marked down because value investing was out of favour. It could change very quickly as income is reinvested in equities over the next few years"
X Link 2023-10-10T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Lllearning97 @Clownbuck Yeah they tend to have some adverse reserve development after an acquisition. I believe the period you are referring to occurred after the acquisition of Allied World. I assume this signals a conservative approach but everyone sees what they want to see"
X Link 2023-10-11T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As @VikingVan100 pointed out to me whats amazing about this forecast is how $FFH.TO is able to grow BV so strongly despite a bond bear market. Most peers are going to get hit harder on BV with longer duration bond portfolios. Might keep the insurance market hard for longer"
X Link 2023-10-12T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Loudrrmilk Yeah probably. Financial markets are dominant over gold"
X Link 2023-10-13T19:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Morningstar increased its target on $FFH.TO from C$790 to C$970 as of yesterday. They also increased their earnings estimates dramatically but still the low estimate on street by far. Most quants have trouble analyzing lumpy 15s and Fairfax is no exception"
X Link 2023-10-20T02:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If corporate credit spreads widen on recession confirmation $FFH.TO will have a chance to increase yield dramatically on its $40b fixed income portfolio. Every 100bps adds $18/share in pre-tax income. @VikingVan100 gives a big head start"
X Link 2023-10-21T23:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@stephen85217230 @VikingVan100 How does that bet payoff"
X Link 2023-10-22T00:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@oclmtl @VikingVan100 If premium growth does slow that should free up capital at the insurance subsidiaries which could be used to buy equities including their own stock or minority interests"
X Link 2023-10-22T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ohcapideas I dont really care about the commentary. I just wish the earnings estimates were more realistic. I want to understand how the analyst gets to $58 in EPS for $FFH.TO in [----]. At least for $MKL he models growing earnings"
X Link 2023-10-22T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WRB is up 7%+ on strong earnings. They had only a [---] duration on their bond portfolio at the end of Q2 similar to $FFH.TO so managed some book value growth. Fairfax will take the bond hit in reported EPS so makes it harder for them to beat consensus but IFRS17 might offset. $WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Earnings Call Key Highlights: Financial Highlights Net income increased 45.7% to $334M. Return on equity was 19.8%. Operating income increased 30.1% to $367M. Operating return on equity was 21.7%. Net premiums written grew 10.5% to over $2.8B https://t.co/U5fgGlZdZ2 $WRB W. R. Berkley"
X Link 2023-10-24T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"More great numbers from P&C insurers with $CB handily beating estimates. @ACIPartnerhship also posted about Munich Re increasing guidance. I think this all bodes well for $FFH.TO but its more complex than the comps. PSA: follow James if you care about financials $CB reported nice Q3 earnings. Specifically of note worthy was agriculture with underwriting year-to-date combined ratio to 91.7%. Chubb is the largest crop writer wrt premiums. Bodes well for $FFH.TO as they write nearly $1B in agriculture premiums. https://t.co/WI7x2BtKkt $CB reported nice Q3 earnings. Specifically of note worthy"
X Link 2023-10-25T00:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I think $CB hasnt done much year because of their bond portfolio positioning as opposed to banking fears. BVPS growth is low despite strong earnings. Its still trading at a decent multiple of 1.6x. @Gugo907 This is a static [--] post portfolio so cant really adjust/ take profits / reallocate etc. TLT opened the year well. CB hit on the banking fears etc. all in all average must agree @Gugo907 This is a static [--] post portfolio so cant really adjust/ take profits / reallocate etc. TLT opened the year well. CB hit on the banking fears etc. all in all average must agree"
X Link 2023-10-25T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WaterworldCapi1 Junior gold"
X Link 2023-10-25T12:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How much market share of active equities management do quants and pseudo-quants have"
X Link 2023-10-27T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Lllearning97 @VanIsleInvestor Have you tried analyzing it using their actual balance sheet and reasonable expectations for returns"
X Link 2023-10-27T10:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@GaelanHanlon No index funds are passive. Most active managers use screens to simulate quants since thats who they are competing with. I think a lot of people think quants and algorithmic trading are the same thing but Im referring to long term investing strategies"
X Link 2023-10-27T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@GaelanHanlon Passive and quant go hand-in-hand. Quants like quality and momentum which makes those stocks rise in the index. That makes all of the index huggers (most active managers) chase those same names which makes them rise more. Valuation doesnt factor in much it seems"
X Link 2023-10-27T10:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Im one of those idiots. I think the lack of passive quants liquidity can often make microcaps trade cheaper to intrinsic value vs liquid well covered large caps which often trade at or above IV. Its just a supply vs demand argument but the company has to ultimately execute"
X Link 2023-10-27T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CloneShameless @evfcfaddict @SchopenhauerCap I assume they are in no rush and that helps with the negotiation"
X Link 2023-11-01T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CloneShameless @evfcfaddict @SchopenhauerCap With cash earning over 5% and the PIK at 6% nominally its an easy economic decision to hold the cash. It has optionality in the current environment. Plus its leverage on the counterparty who could probably redeploy at 12-15%+. Whats a fair split with those economics"
X Link 2023-11-01T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@oclmtl @ACIPartnerhship @ohcapideas $MKL ticks all of the heuristic boxes for $BRK shareholders most importantly being quality. $FFH.TO s expected value investment style isnt popular at all"
X Link 2023-11-02T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MariusFabry @AswathDamodaran I just dont know what the odds are of achieving that revenue growth. Seems like a tough bet but its worked out so far"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@haka702 What were the alternatives I would argue more expensive"
X Link 2023-11-02T12:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@haka702 I hope your eyes were opened to what an advantage it is to have a partner like Wexford"
X Link 2023-11-02T12:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@haka702 What was the market cap at the time and what percentage of life time revenue is silver"
X Link 2023-11-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@haka702 I find most of the quick takes are heuristic based as opposed to idiosyncratic and thats the case for the market as a whole and not just $MKO.V. If it makes you feel better some $FISH.V shareholders also didnt like the deal"
X Link 2023-11-02T14:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@6jykdryyb7 @ToffCap Not reliant on one big customer per se but $DIS is a big provider of licenses so thats a risk"
X Link 2023-11-02T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@oscar100_x Surprise was to the upside"
X Link 2023-11-03T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Close-ology works sometimes Its now a prime set-up for multiple expansion over the next 9m. Objectively 15%+ BV growth is likely for the next [--] years. PMs should be thinking about what that means for $FFH.TO s index weighting and what happens when it passes $IFC.TO"
X Link 2023-11-03T03:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IFC.TO matters because its also a P&C insurer and most active managers are overweight Intact. Its very well run with great management but its BV is down a bunch this year and Q3 is no exception although raising equity to fund an accretive acquisition at 2.5x BV helped"
X Link 2023-11-03T03:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jjs24Jjs @oclmtl @ACIPartnerhship @ohcapideas $MKL Thats a recent narrative change"
X Link 2023-11-04T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney @VikingVan100 Most analysis I have seen on P&C insurance and balance sheet heavy financials compares P/B to ROE in their analysis. What do you use"
X Link 2023-11-05T17:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FFH.TO Analyst updates post CC RBC maintains Outperform increases target to US$1020 maintaining 1x BV for ye [----]. Most importantly 2024E EPS increased to US$140 and 2025E introduced at US$150. Both north of consensus. Please add if you see any others"
X Link 2023-11-06T14:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CIBC maintains Outperformer increases PT to C$1700 reflecting a multiple of 1.2x P/B based on FTM BV. Increases 2024E EPS to US$128 from US$110. No [----] estimate yet"
X Link 2023-11-06T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"By the end of November we should find out if $MBX.TO partner Sequel Pharma will proceed with attempting to commercialize Kinilytic but it seems cheap without it. Microbix Biosystems Inc. (TSX: MBX) (OTCQX: MBXBF) - Q&A with Harold Lei. via @YouTube https://youtu.be/2I-9UD3Zc14si=aZM_sSGtGSAk61XJ https://youtu.be/2I-9UD3Zc14si=aZM_sSGtGSAk61XJ"
X Link 2023-11-10T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CroweTarn @hemsky_capital @TidefallCapital The BVPS CAGR is a better comparison since $IFC.TO doesnt take their bond losses through the income statement like $FFH.TO does but have to adjust for dividends. The problem with Hemskys analysis is that its backwards looking. Its why quants miss the opportunity"
X Link 2023-11-10T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FFH.TO and $FIH.U have done really well on their public Indian holdings this year. We might also get price discovery on Digit and BIAL when they have their respective IPOs in the next few years"
X Link 2023-11-16T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In my experience most investors who look at $FFH.TO ignore the equity holdings assuming zero from capital gains. Not all of the gains are captured in BV b/c some are equity accounted but in that case the share of earnings is included. $EUROB alone has added $13/sh this year"
X Link 2023-11-16T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AmadeusValue I assume it needs more capital/restructuring to work and thats easier to do while private. It might end up not working out but probabilistically they must think its a good bet. Most investors are deterministic so they will not like it"
X Link 2023-11-18T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachkari What if they file on $UBER"
X Link 2023-11-23T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NonObviously Depending on PA size vs total comp that could be an interesting decision. $ELF.TO might be interesting for registered accounts. Could buy and immediately tender at purchase price and hopefully do better and then buy it back presumably cheaper"
X Link 2023-11-24T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What are your reasons for why the discount exists"
X Link 2023-11-25T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@immeet26 Thats interesting. I think the investor bases have very little overlap. The only buyer of $FIH.U that also buys Indian stocks directly is Fairfax India. It would take investors who want active Indian exposure to buy $FIH.U and they dont seem to exist yet"
X Link 2023-11-25T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Bonhoeffer_KDS The fees existed when it traded at a premium to NAV so investor preferences have certainly changed but I think that also speaks to investors thinking they have better alternatives. Arguably fees have been prepaid for the next $9 of upside"
X Link 2023-11-25T18:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Which EM commodity based economies have strong currencies"
X Link 2023-11-25T21:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Thanks. Do you think the DXY is the best way to measure the USD It seems like the rest of the components all benefit from stronger currencies by being besties with the US. Im not sure what the alternatives are but gold BRL and INR are interesting to me"
X Link 2023-11-25T22:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nachkari @viggy_krishnan CAD still holds up pretty well when oil is weak because of the broader trade relationship. Canada is only 9% anyway. I think the DXY components will all weaken with the USD relative to gold and maybe BRL/INR. Indians own a lot of gold so its the same bet"
X Link 2023-11-25T22:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nachkari @viggy_krishnan Yeah we are one of the few currencies in DXY that benefits from these trends but most of it is not resource rich. I find myself owning a lot of stocks that fit in with this macro theme but I think its because they are cheap absolutely"
X Link 2023-11-25T22:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@antoniombbf See other responses on performance fee please. Wrt your other comment you think they are marking the private businesses aggressively"
X Link 2023-11-25T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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