#  @BloFin_Academy BloFin Academy BloFin Academy posts on X about blofin, bitcoin, crypto, hedging the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1405070686406660098/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -23% - [--] Month [------] +101% - [--] Months [-------] +238% - [--] Year [-------] +121% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1405070686406660098/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +30% - [--] Month [--] +11% - [--] Months [---] +186% - [--] Year [---] +11% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1405070686406660098/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.26% - [--] Month [-----] +0.73% - [--] Months [-----] +4.40% - [--] Year [-----] +4.90% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1405070686406660098/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [exchanges](/list/exchanges) #4990 [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [us election](/list/us-election) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [blofin](/topic/blofin) #12, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [crypto](/topic/crypto), [hedging](/topic/hedging), [sentiment](/topic/sentiment), [longterm](/topic/longterm), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [fed](/topic/fed), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [ethereum](/topic/ethereum) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@genesisvol](/creator/undefined) [@amberdataio](/creator/undefined) [@blofinofficial](/creator/undefined) [@cmegroup](/creator/undefined) [@deribitofficial](/creator/undefined) [@wublockchain](/creator/undefined) [@deribitexchange](/creator/undefined) [@interestrates](/creator/undefined) [@godbole17](/creator/undefined) [@coinglasscom](/creator/undefined) [@nansenai](/creator/undefined) [@realrich1x](/creator/undefined) [@coinmarketcap](/creator/undefined) [@glassnode](/creator/undefined) [@stlouisfed](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@jpmorgan](/creator/undefined) [@menthorqpro](/creator/undefined) [@crynetio](/creator/undefined) [@4adybug](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [USDC (USDC)](/topic/usdc) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/solana) [TradersCoin (TRDC)](/topic/traders) [Optimism (OP)](/topic/optimism) [CME Group Inc (CME)](/topic/$cme) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "1. The downturn in the crypto market continues. Affected by the news that "the number of interest rate hikes by the Fed is expected to increase to [--] times during the year and the rate hike will be carried out as soon as March" the prices of mainstream cryptos continued to fall" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1480564973306728450) 2022-01-10T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. Market risk aversion detonated as if in an instant. Volatility jumped to highs as all risk asset markets fell to varying degrees on the looming Federal Reserve meeting and the cloud of war in Ukraine" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1485642148213313538) 2022-01-24T15:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. The U.S. PCE index hit another 40-year high while consumer confidence hit a 10-year low. As the economic situation slowed Kashkari and other Fed governors began to calm the market. Commodities stocks and more have bounced back again including crypto of course" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1487100686466977792) 2022-01-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. As risk asset markets start to price in more interest rate hike expectations from central banks the rebound continues both in the crypto and stock markets" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1508849496796835840) 2022-03-29T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. The U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hit its lowest level since July [----] in April which seems to indicate a recession is coming. Nonetheless a [--] basis point rate hike in May is primarily set" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1518626983260827648) 2022-04-25T16:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. Bitcoin fell below $30000 on Tuesday as both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies suffered from a sell-off caused by aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and fears of a recession" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1523853184799756289) 2022-05-10T02:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/6. The U.S unemployment rate in May remained the same as in March. It seems that the [--] bps interest rate hike did not have much impact on employment in the U.S and the labor force was still relatively robust" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1533638995485372417) 2022-06-06T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/9. With the CPI index higher than expected the Fed stopped taking 'pause the interest rate hike in Sep' into consideration and it will have to remain hawkish at its Sep meeting. A [--] bps rate hike in both Jun and Jul looks inevitable and a [--] bps hike even seems possible" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1536187117663051778) 2022-06-13T03:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/9. As the investors reevaluated the expectation of the Fed interest rate hike the U.S stock market continued to be under pressure and fell significantly. Also the crypto market seems to have fallen to a level where there is 'no room for further down'" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1536548972965281792) 2022-06-14T03:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/8. The slump in the U.S stock market and the crypto market early today stopped and rebounded. Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in [----] appear to have fueled a rebound in tech stocks benefiting the crypto market as well" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1544518208723591168) 2022-07-06T03:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks again extinguishing expectations of interest rate cuts next year one after another. While there are not so many events in the market in August liquidity pressures in the crypto market look likely to persist in the short term" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1555047834495291392) 2022-08-04T04:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. Today's Asian crypto investors don't seem so optimistic. Affected by the FOMC Meeting the prices of encrypted assets are still slowly falling in the Asian session and judging from the derivatives market data risk aversion is rising rapidly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1572448376473657346) 2022-09-21T04:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/9. A significant decline of Asian stocks followed the Fed's expected 75bps rate hike today and it added more certainties and debates among global investors. As US [--] Year Treasury Rate hiked up along with the interest rates Asian bonds followed too" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1573210122989764613) 2022-09-23T07:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/9. Major Asian currencies are tumbling vs. USD recently. Many investors suspect that the decline of major Asian currencies such as JPY might trigger an Asian financial crisis due to the Fed's hawkish policy" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1574309675729682432) 2022-09-26T08:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. Asian stocks and currencies sank again and a further decline in the Japanese Yen that had already passed the critical level may trigger government intervention. DXY continues soaring and S&P [---] just experienced the lowest intraday since November 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1580037802787414016) 2022-10-12T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. The setback of some big-tech companies' quarterly earnings led to volatile changes in the S&P [---]. However the BoC took the lead in slowing rate hikes in a sign that the rate hike cycle appears to be nearing an end. As a result both stocks and cryptos rallied" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1585300064439742464) 2022-10-26T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/6. Asian stocks rebounded in the morning while US stocks slipped before the #FOMC meeting. Investors speculated that the strong #DXY would carry to the next year and correlate with #Fed's hawkish monetary policy which would not be favorable for Asian investors" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1587349433489858560) 2022-11-01T07:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. Markets remained relatively steady following the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data with investors remaining somewhat cautious ahead of the December FOMC meeting despite the Fed hinting at easing policy to reduce the threat of a recession" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1598747247403216896) 2022-12-02T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/5. The U.S. stock market was closed for a day and the crypto market also ushered in a temporary calm after last week's rise. BTC held above $21k while ETH was approaching $1600 which had jumped more than 32% by market value from the beginning of this year" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1615271857133080577) 2023-01-17T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/5. Investors are targeting the $1600 gamma resistance for another run. They were successful for a while but the price of ETH was still firmly suppressed below $1600 around the US session opening" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1615749645145354240) 2023-01-18T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/6. Although the FOMC meeting has ended the latest non-farm payroll data following it as well as the huge size of short-term directional positions in the derivatives market has caused the short-term shocks in the crypto market to continue" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1621181697684566024) 2023-02-02T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/4. Affected by strong economic data that boosted rate hike expectations investors' expectations have retreated and the performance of crypto has also begun to decline. BTC failed again to challenge resistance at $25k and fell while other mainstream tokens followed its step" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1628050539287285760) 2023-02-21T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/6. The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting showed that the possibility of a 50bps rate hike is still low which may push up the crypto prices. BTC rebounds to higher than $24k during AS session while the crypto market seems to absorb the panic sentiment of the sudden drop" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1628708261984866305) 2023-02-23T10:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/6. Silvergate Bank's announcement to wind down operations has dealt a minor shock to the crypto market making the bearish sentiment continue to spread. As of now BTC has fallen about 2% intraday to $21.7k" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1633673157566681088) 2023-03-09T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/5. Although BTC's decline was accompanied by a weakening of momentum there was still not enough sentiment to keep the price support. From an order flow perspective it is clear that liquidity in the market is decreasing at an extreme rate both in terms of ask and bid orders" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1633824183619813378) 2023-03-09T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/5. The illiquidity of the altcoin is more severe than the decline of BTC. As people can see from the chart the continued decline has swept away the altcoins' sentiment compared to January's alt season" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1633824186094477313) 2023-03-09T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/6. BTC has experienced a short-term drop in price currently hovering around $27.7k. Meanwhile the decline in altcoins is more severe and market sentiment has become tenser due to the upcoming FOMC meeting" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1638208926058696704) 2023-03-21T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/7. BTC continues to experience ongoing fluctuations while other altcoins are also currently experiencing a liquidity crunch. Considering that the quarterly settlement of the crypto market is imminent and important economic data will still be released this week market volatility may continue" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1640355560032972801) 2023-03-27T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As IVs have repeatedly broken through the historical low sellers in the crypto options market have to maintain relatively cautiousness which makes them hold a large number of positive gamma positions in their hands and their hedging behavior under low volatility further maintains the stability of the market. However after the monthly settlement in May the positive gamma exposure near the current spot price will disappear a lot which may signal the rising uncertainty level after the end of May" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1660620755443523584) 2023-05-22T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Investors' wait-and-see sentiment continued to rise accompanied by a decline in the trading volume of spot and derivatives and a decline in market volatility. The weekly and monthly implied volatility of ETH once broke through the YTD lows record which means that investors may not even be as enthusiastic about trading as they are during the Christmas and New Year holidays" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1661005205985722368) 2023-05-23T13:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Jul [--] 2023🧐 Investors are regaining their preference for cash and short-dated treasuries as bets on further Fed rate hikes mount which is also continuing to influence the crypto market. Before this week's macro data release more investors may be on the sidelines while market makers may be one of the few active trading groups. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below 👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1678776748031508483) 2023-07-11T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Jul [--] 2023🧐 While the crypto market remains relatively calm the treasury bond and interest rate markets are undercurrents. On the one hand traders are pricing in a more extended period of peak interest rates while also pricing in the possibility of a" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1683864896667291650) 2023-07-25T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Even the FTX event didn't trigger a massive liquidation like today because today's event was TOTALLY UNEXPECTED" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1692436177713074524) 2023-08-18T07:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@lmcdcrma @Blofin_Official @tradingview @Gravity5ucks @genesisvol @Amberdataio @WuBlockchain Sure the impact of OI decline and large-scale liquidation cannot also be ignored" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1692444282601505004) 2023-08-18T07:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🧐 There are still [--] hours until Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole summit but investors' bearish sentiment is already evident in traditional markets. In the crypto market investors have not yet shown a bearish sentiment similar to the traditional market. However further pricing of uncertainty is also proceeding in parallel with the traditional market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1694742312688275517) 2023-08-24T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🧐 After passing the "Jackson Hole moment" without much risk we ushered in the "Non-farm payrolls data week." Considering that this week's non-farm payroll data is directly related to the decisions of the Sept FOMC meeting the level of macro uncertainty this week remains relatively high. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1696180299993170045) 2023-08-28T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🥳 Grayscale wins lawsuit against SEC triggering jubilation in crypto markets. Investors believe there may be only one step to the passage of spot Bitcoin ETF. However The unexpected rise also appeared to have hit some options sellers hard. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1696582223783510130) 2023-08-29T17:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🙂 Under macro pressure price rebounds caused by good news are often short-lived. Although relatively weak economic data has reduced the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Fed liquidity pressure has not diminished. However from" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1696917050411864533) 2023-08-30T16:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🧐 Although the recession risks brought by high interest rates have begun to emerge Fed officials still maintain a hawkish attitude pushing the DXY index to rise further to the second highest level after March this year while risk asset prices also fell back with the DXY index rising. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below 👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1699090658437542179) 2023-09-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023😶 For crypto investors higher interest rates mean lower earnings expectations. Taking the 10-year T-notes yield (approximately 4.27%) as the risk-free rate of return the expected return of ETH has been significantly lower than the risk-free return and the difference between the BTC expected return and the risk-free return is also shrinking further; that's not a good sign. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1702352340253307171) 2023-09-14T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""The new bull market is likely to come later and compared to the previous bull market the new bull market may be more moderate. "🧐 Welcome to read our latest flow insights:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1705227354082320642) 2023-09-22T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🧐 Entering the last week of September derivatives settlement for the 2023q3 will take place this Friday and a series of macro data represented by PCE data will also be released on Friday. Notably the role of @CMEGroup in crypto derivatives" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1706284529173094534) 2023-09-25T12:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🦔 As the quarterly settlement date approaches the impact of hedging behavior on the crypto market becomes more significant. Although the hedging behavior of market makers has smoothed the fluctuations to a certain extent as gamma exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1707072515963760793) 2023-09-27T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🤔 The calm in the crypto market appears to be continuing. Investors' preference for the US dollar and risk-free returns has further suppressed the performance of risk assets and the crypto market is no exception. Under the combined influence of risk aversion and bearish sentiment BTC's market capitalization share in the crypto market exceeded 50% while ETH's market capitalization share fell below 18%. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1711396817479610733) 2023-10-09T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🧐 The unexpected rebound in PPI data is not good news for the crypto market. Inflation on the production side will eventually be transmitted to the consumption side eventually leading to a rebound in CPI. It is clear that high interest rates above 5% and liquidity shortages will still be the main problems the risk asset market needs to face before inflation shows substantial improvement. Besides The upcoming CPI data and Fed meeting minutes will bring more uncertainty. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1712137002966249886) 2023-10-11T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🤡 The new week of the crypto market began with dark humor. The fake news that "SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETF" pushed the price of BTC to more than $30000 quickly and then the price fell back as the news was fake. Within an hour it was over. Interestingly fake news had only a "limited" impact on the crypto market. With the spot Bitcoin ETF pending investors are still looking forward to more good news. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1713951851908149721) 2023-10-16T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🙂 The liquidity crunch seems to be ending which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market. However the impact of positive sentiment appears to be concentrated only on BTC. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1714335614836097060) 2023-10-17T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023😶 At a time when geopolitical risks are rising "holding the dollar" and "shorting treasuries" has become one of the most popular trading. In contrast the cryptos' short-lived upward momentum appears over and the crypto market returns to calm again. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1714697948699984199) 2023-10-18T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023😎 Last weekend was not quiet for the crypto markets. The sudden rise caught investors off guard and some traders suffered heavy losses from their short positions. At the same time there has been a significant rebound in implied volatility for major cryptocurrencies. It must be admitted that sentiment in the crypto market has rebounded significantly and the "liquidity ceiling" sealing the crypto market has also shown some signs of loosening; perhaps we can witness more surprises this week. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1716495730016424188) 2023-10-23T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "According to @Coinmarketcap BTCs market share increased by more than 2% in [--] hours and is currently approaching 54%" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1716647618577830011) 2023-10-24T02:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🙂 This week the crypto market will be hit by central bank meetings like the FOMC meeting and a series of macro data represented by non-farm payrolls while bets on spot Bitcoin ETFs are still dominating the volatility of the crypto market. Against the background of a combination of macro uncertainty and internal uncertainty the implied volatilities are still relatively high. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1719052212335452525) 2023-10-30T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🎃 It is relatively high that policymakers will "stand still" for some time and the liquidity situation of the risk asset markets may also improve. Even considering the impact of bullish expectations from spot Bitcoin ETF improved liquidity expectations are already partially reflected in the crypto derivatives market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1719415317817118807) 2023-10-31T18:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Rally View: The Dawn of a New Bull Market 1/ Although the latest rebound began with fake news after that a series of good news pushed the crypto market cap to more than $1.3T. However can this rebound be sustained or even become the starting point of a new bull market" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1720042600022032849) 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ The current rising sentiment mainly comes from two aspects: the expectation of spot Bitcoin ETF and the expectation that the "interest rate hike cycle is about to end." The latter is currently relatively more dominant" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1720042603524264000) 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "9/ To sum up after this round of rallies there is still some time before the new bull market while the main risks in the crypto market come from the current high leverage level and some uncertain factors that have not yet been priced within the crypto market" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1720042627960307956) 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "10/ The rate hike cycle is about to end and the macro environment is relatively favorable for the crypto market. However when expectations rather than reality flood the market investors tend to use higher leverage to get profits whether in traditional or crypto markets" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1720042631718416831) 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😎 As central banks once again pressed the "pause" button on interest rate hikes while publicly acknowledging or tacitly admitting that "the interest rate hike cycle is about to end" the improvement in the macro environment was finally reflected in the interest rate market. Traders have priced in the Fed's first rate cut to occur in May [----] with the rate cuts expected to reach [---] bps throughout [----]. For the crypto market this means that a return of liquidity is coming. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1721593349956886802) 2023-11-06T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🤔 The unexpected increase in the monthly rate of US wholesale trade sales in September indicates that inflation may be "stickier than expected." Besides the real-time inflation that has rebounded to above 3% also shows that the Fed still needs to maintain liquidity pressure. Notably the Reserve Bank of Australia recognized as a "moderate central bank" announced a [--] bps interest rate hike this week which means that the opening of "liquidity faucets" is still an "expectation" that will not be realized shortly. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1722294401500868634) 2023-11-08T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Rally View: One Step of CME New Narrative of Crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1722960526236684605) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ According to @coinglass_com at noon yesterday when the total crypto market cap exceeded $1.4T @CMEGroup formally obtained the highest market share of BTC Delta [--] derives. Although this news did not attract much attention it was a landmark moment for the crypto market" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1722960529378213942) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/ In the early years the relationship between BTC and global macro was not so significant. As time goes by BTC has become more widely used as a decentralized global liquidity network and the price changes of BTC have also tended to be consistent with global liquidity change" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1722960532225790145) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ BTC combines the advantages of gold and FX. As a global liquidity network the transfer of liquidity is relatively easy via BTC and the price movement of BTC can reflect changes in global liquidity levels in time" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1722960535443079275) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4/ BTC can also act as a hedge in the short term because it can also play the temporary "liquidity channel" and "safe haven" for at-risk funds. Moreover BTC is more decentralized than FX and is not easily affected by the policies of governments and central banks" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1722960537787744365) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5/ From a correlation perspective starting from 2022Q4 the correlation between BTC and gold Nasdaq and the US dollar gradually becomes insignificant. To some extent the above means that BTC is beneficial to diversifying the portfolio's overall risk and reducing vol" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1722960539733889311) 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😏 Before the release of the latest CPI data in the US and the EU the risk of "inflation stickiness" caused traders to again bet on long-term high interest rates. Expensive liquidity costs have made it difficult for investors to push large amounts of cash into the crypto and other risk asset markets. Interestingly the crypto market does not appear to be significantly affected by macro pressures and the strong performance continues. However the risks arising from price increases driven by high leverage cannot be ignored. For more welcome to read our latest quick" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1724128838240899092) 2023-11-13T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🤔 The improvement in macroeconomic expectations has promoted the joint rebound of the crypto market and US stocks. However the price rebound supported by high leverage is ultimately difficult to sustain in the long term. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1725188063939514641) 2023-11-16T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🙂 Macro uncertainty levels dropped significantly as Thanksgiving approached. After a series of important data were released last week traders in the interest rate market ruled out the possibility of another interest rate hike. Also they believed that the rate cut would reach [---] bps in the next year. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has laid a solid foundation for a possible crypto bull market next year and investors have maintained a firm bullish sentiment. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1726634738298052820) 2023-11-20T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😀 The latest macro data brings a lot of good news. European inflation fell significantly faster than expected while US PCE data did not exceed expectations. In addition even the "sticky" US inflation may fall below 3% in [----] and finally reach the inflation target in [----]. It seems that policymakers will no longer easily consider further liquidity contraction and the crypto market will benefit significantly from this. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1730278050452087222) 2023-11-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023😀 The weekend's further rebound pushed the crypto market cap to exceed $1.5T which announced the early arrival of the "technical bull market" in the crypto market. Investors are also increasingly optimistic about changes in the macro environment. In the interest rate market traders have priced in a [---] bps cut next year with the first rate cut expected to occur earlier than May. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇 #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #CryptoNews @genesisvol @Amberdataio @nansen_ai @CMEGroup @glassnode @DeribitExchange" [X Link](https://x.com/Blofin_Academy/status/1731748493403037828) 2023-12-04T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023🎄 As Christmas approaches the impact of the hedging behaviour of market makers on prices is becoming increasingly significant pushing the price of BTC back to above $44000. At the same time some altcoins sought after by investors do not seem to be affected by the holiday and their trading volume and price performance are still hot. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1737570902815264821) 2023-12-20T20:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023🎄 There is still one day left until the crypto witching day and the hedging effect is pushing the prices of BTC and ETH to "anchor points" near gamma peak which is driving a significant increase in the price of ETH and pushing the ETH/BTC exchange rate to a nearly one-month high. However ETH's outstanding intraday price performance did not change investors' different expectations for BTC and ETH. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1740116278403375205) 2023-12-27T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 The crypto market appears to have recovered from yesterdays deleveraging. The process for a Bitcoin spot ETF is still well underway and the latest employment data suggests an economic soft landing is well underway as well. Traders in the interest rate market were not worried by the stronger macro data which also laid a good foundation for the subsequent performance of the crypto market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1743020592528519252) 2024-01-04T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 This week is the launching moment for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Although macroeconomic data shows that the possibility of the Fed taking robust liquidity release policies is still relatively high and has suppressed interest rate cut expectations to a certain extent the game on the final results of spot ETFs has temporarily made the impact of macro factors less noticeable. So how high will investor enthusiasm push the prices of BTC and ETH For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1744457070488047938) 2024-01-08T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 Less than [--] hours are left until the "final approval point" for the BTC spot ETF. However the drama was just beginning: A real SEC account was compromised to post the "fake" approval tweet and just minutes later SEC Chairman Gary Gensler clarified the tweet as fake news. The crypto market has seen violent intraday swings as a result while investors are still waiting for the final approval results. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1744855460531069340) 2024-01-09T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🥳 Finally after months of waiting the BTC spot ETFs have been approved today. In derivatives markets investors are already pricing in the uncertainty of a post-ETF era. In the futures market whether on crypto exchanges or CME the annualized premium of BTC has dropped significantly compared with before. This means that as BTC spot ETF expectations are realized the narrative window period in the next few months will have an adverse impact on BTCs earnings potential to a certain extent. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1745199254174605639) 2024-01-10T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BloFin_Official @genesisvol @Amberdataio @VeloData @glassnode @nansen_ai" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1745199342087245915) 2024-01-10T21:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🚀😎 After the BTC spot ETFs were approved investors focused on the follow-up effects brought about by the ETFs. At the same time the impact of changes in the macro environment is gradually returning. Although real-time CPI data shows that inflation is already in a steady decline the unexpectedly higher Dec CPI data and the sell the news behaviour on the first day of the BTC spot ETFs trading caused significant intraday fluctuations in the price of BTC. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1745544995720106317) 2024-01-11T20:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🤔 Following a series of hawkish speeches by officials from the Fed and the ECB investors finally realized that the pace of interest rate cuts might not be as fast as imagined and adjusted their expectations promptly. Pricing of short-term tail risk appears to go hand in hand in both traditional and crypto markets. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1747724597204848753) 2024-01-17T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As #BTC and #ETH prices fall investors and market makers are pricing in higher tail risk pushing [--] fly and [--] fly further upwards. If the price drop continues we may witness a sharp rise in intraday implied volatility" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1749767270090637763) 2024-01-23T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🧐 The Governor of the Bank of Canada's statement is basically consistent with that of Fed officials which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market. Uncertainty mainly comes from two aspects: investors' selling of Grayscale spot ETF shares has caused significant selling pressure for BTC. At the same time the Fed's interest rate decision remains "pending" and investors are still waiting for more information to be revealed at the next FOMC meeting. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1750332423731335181) 2024-01-25T01:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😶 Like the Bank of Canada the ECB also announced a relatively prudent interest rate decision that did not exceed expectations. In the interest rate market traders expect the ECB's first interest rate cut to occur in April-May which is consistent with expectations for the timing of the Fed's rate cut. In the crypto market prudent interest rate policies have pushed investor sentiment towards neutrality while volatility levels have also been further reduced as the market stabilizes. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1750703432141545549) 2024-01-26T02:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "At the start of the new week's APAC session #ETH is dominated by more positive gamma and the resistance from market makers' hedging behaviour has just hit recent highs" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1751776720695558166) 2024-01-29T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Agreed. Some additional comments: It seems traders expect the ETH/BTC exchange rate to remain lower and are unlikely to improve in the short term. We just made an ETH/BTC forward exchange rate term structure chart for reference. In this weeks crypto options unplugged I discuss with @davidbrickell80 why even these type of headlines in the near term may not be enough for an $ETH breakout due to dealer gamma positioning coming from large call overwriters. There was some sign of short covering in the https://t.co/q62bqfoLL0 In this weeks crypto options unplugged I discuss with @davidbrickell80" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1752833195031331255) 2024-01-31T23:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🧐 This week the crypto market has returned to calm but in the calm environment some macro factors are adversely affecting the performance of crypto assets. Considering that the high interest rate environment will not change much in recent months investors' demand for cash has returned to a certain extent driving the rise of the DXY index. At the same time the prices of mainstream crypto assets have been weak. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1754618992835408369) 2024-02-05T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🙂 Some investors also expect the recent market rebound to be a "steady and sustained process" which means that the possibility of a price breakthrough is relatively low. This appears to be true for ETH but BTC prices clearly have higher breakout potential. The hedging behaviour of market makers may push the price of BTC to rise significantly during the Lunar New Year. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1755319884685468018) 2024-02-07T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024😎 Spot BTC ETFs' popularity has exceeded investor expectations to some extent. Even considering the impact of GBTC outflows the spot ETF market still provides steady cash liquidity for BTC with increasingly solid support for its price. The continued high implied forward rate indicates that investors expect that the prices of BTC and ETH still have enough momentum to continue to rise and are willing to pay more premiums to obtain higher forward returns relative to the current premium. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1755629434516996250) 2024-02-08T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In the perpetual contract market speculative sentiment is returning. Funding rates for altcoins have risen significantly which means that investors' risk tolerance is weakening and any news may trigger serial liquidations and significant fluctuations" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1758139688320446709) 2024-02-15T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🤔 "Are we approaching a short-term price ceiling" Some indicators: -The overall risk level in the crypto market appears to be increasing -Cash Inflow has slowed significantly in the past week -Hedging by market makers creates stronger price resistance For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1760154436004188388) 2024-02-21T04:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "⚠Some fresh risk indicators: -BTC's cash gamma has once again reached a relatively low level since Jan [----] which means that the hedging behaviour of market makers is "following the price movements" with sufficient momentum. -Currently for every 1% drop in BTC price market makers have to sell hedging positions with a notional value of more than $65M (approximately [----] BTC) and may even sell at the market price. -Block traders have begun selling risk reversals for tail protection and some have directly bought put options meaning expectations for a pullback have increased significantly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1760318372510921114) 2024-02-21T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Whale's View: Higher Leverage As the total market cap of the crypto market exceeds $2.1T many people are beginning to worry about whether the leverage in the crypto market is too high. Many indicators seem to indicate this is the case but at least for BTC the current leverage is not too high" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499055291412895) 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Cash liquidity from the US is an essential support for the performance of BTC and US stocks. From March [----] to now the total deposits of US commercial banks have only increased by 1.4% setting a new low since [----]. @stlouisfed" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499062979604585) 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Due to the credit bankruptcy of local commercial banks more investors have chosen money market funds US stocks and cryptos. In [----] alone the size of retail money market funds expanded by more than 46% the S&P500 and Nasdaq broke new highs and the price of BTC also rose by more than 200% in [----]. @stlouisfed" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499067060617414) 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ It must be acknowledged that the current overall leverage ratio is gradually approaching the "danger range". Cash liquidity calculated in stablecoins is only $133b which supports a market cap of more than $2T which means an overall leverage ratio of 15.24x" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499070952927307) 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5/ Although lower than the leverage level at the peak of the last bull market high leverage still implies that investors' risk tolerance is gradually being eroded which means that the potential risk of extreme volatility is further increasing" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499074958446824) 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "6/ However the above risks are mainly for ETH and other altcoins because these tokens lack direct support from USD liquidity and can only obtain cash liquidity bridged through stablecoins. This is not the case for BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499079266087164) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "7/ In addition to drawing liquidity from stablecoins spot ETFs have provided nearly $40b in direct USD liquidity to BTC. We assume that USDs liquidity is evenly distributed in market share. BTCs market share is about 52% which means that BTC can obtain about $69b in USDs liquidity and its total cash liquidity reaches $109b" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499083485520323) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "8/ The current total market cap of BTC is about $1.12T so we can calculate that the total leverage level of BTC is about 10.28x. Taking into account the additional USD liquidity we estimate that the real BTC total leverage level does not exceed 10x which is significantly lower than other cryptos. By comparison ETHs overall leverage is around 16.11x and assets like BNB and SOL also have overall leverage over 16x" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499086773895540) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "9/ For further comparison the total supply of "USD in circulation" (M0) is close to $582.7b. In contrast the total market capitalization of global assets is roughly $127.13T meaning that global financial assets' total leverage is 21.14x. Even considering the impact of Eurodollars and other offshore dollars the total leverage ratio will not be lower than 15x. Interestingly BTC looks like a "relatively low-leverage" risk asset" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499090439712828) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "10/ To sum up the price of BTC still has considerable room for growth. Even if its leverage level increases to 15x the market cap of BTC will exceed $1.65T - which means that the price of each Bitcoin will be higher than $78000 and BTC's market share will easily exceed 60%" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499093551895018) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "11/ Perhaps the possible launch of the spot Ethereum ETF will change this situation somewhat. Still this bull market will undoubtedly be dominated by BTC and global macro while many altcoins will continue to struggle in the bear-filled quagmire for much longer" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762499095879626820) 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🚀 BTC $64k Summary: - Option sellers expect that BTC's intraday price fluctuation will not be less than 4%. For ETH the seller's expected intraday fluctuation is about 4.5%. - The volatility range being priced in appears low compared to realized volatility levels. - "Up" is still most investors' medium- and long-term consensus and the differences only exist in the magnitude of the increase. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1762955229031813536) 2024-02-28T21:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BTC ETFs hit new volume records on Feb [--]. Regarding shares volume @BlackRock IBIT's intraday trading volume is 2nd only to SQQQ while BITO's intraday trading volume ranks fourth. Top ETFs like SPY TQQQ and TLT pale in comparison. Even in USD trading volume IBIT has a higher volume than TLT" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1763141543719026742) 2024-02-29T09:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024🚀 Traders have not changed their bullish stance on BTC and ETH following the end of deleveraging.😎 Summary: - For BTC the hedging behaviour of market makers will only form some resistance above $70k - The implied forward rates of BTC and ETH still maintain an upward trend without any signs of a pullback - Current put options trading is more about protection in deleveraging or a pullback than expressing a bearish view - More traders are still actively buying call options and rolling ATM call options to higher strike prices to avoid poor liquidity and higher" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1765869887719895136) 2024-03-07T22:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Whale's View- Should We Do Some Preparation for the Possible Rejection of Spot ETH ETFs🧐 Welcome to read our latest whale's view below" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1767245498753368194) 2024-03-11T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Summary: Compared to spot Bitcoin ETFs the negative impact of the PoS mechanism price manipulation risk and securitization risk significantly reduce the probability of spot ETH ETFs' approval.👀 Fortunately whether spot ETH ETFs are approved or not the final result will not affect the breakthrough of ETH price. 🙂 However as other competitors catch up ETH's market share may be challenging to increase further.🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1767245502138257634) 2024-03-11T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024😎 Another deleveraging with more potential risks. Summary: - It appears that event vol was one of the main reasons for the front-month implied volatility levels being close to their annual peaks - The rise in the butterfly index indicates that the crypto market is gradually pricing in more macro risks - Option block traders still believe that the upward trend of BTC and ETH will continue in the next 1-2 months For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1767679496164192614) 2024-03-12T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Whales View: Week [--] 2024🫡 Welcome to read our latest whale's view" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1769872309173842383) 2024-03-18T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Summary: -This week is undoubtedly the most crucial week in 2024Q1. Major central banks led by the Bank of Japan and the Fed will announce interest rate decisions this week setting the tone for monetary policies in the coming months. -Due to the impact of safe-haven sentiment the prices of both BTC and ETH have experienced a certain degree of pullback but traders are more optimistic about BTC. -Benefiting from the early end of the deleveraging of altcoins the volatility of altcoin prices and the liquidation of altcoin derivatives are expected to impact the market less" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1769872312281797059) 2024-03-18T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024😶 Summary: - The additional pricing for the latest FOMC meeting has been reflected in the prices of BTC and ETH options - Price changes of BTC and ETH will still face more significant uncertainty - Block traders seem to believe that the prices of BTC and ETH will not fall too sharply and will rebound upward shortly For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1770187408245719068) 2024-03-19T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Whales View: Quarterly Settlement and Game😎 Welcome to read our latest whale's view below https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-quarterly-settlement-and-game-3d3407a8e071 https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-quarterly-settlement-and-game-3d3407a8e071" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1773310657992995273) 2024-03-28T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Summary: - Although the news of LSE's upcoming listing of BTC ETN and ETH ETN products has driven a significant price increase market makers' hedging behaviour is expected to prevail before the quarterly settlement - The change in the term structure of the ETH/BTC forward exchange rate seems to indicate that ETH is currently in the "oversold" range - Altcoins' leverage levels are beginning to show signs of recovery but no significant increase is expected before the quarterly settlement" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1773310661587779933) 2024-03-28T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Blofin Whales View: War Gold and Crypto🧐 Welcome to read our latest whale's view https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-war-gold-and-crypto-2abaa6cb60ee https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-war-gold-and-crypto-2abaa6cb60ee" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1777858832632549772) 2024-04-10T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Summary: -The rise in global uncertainty is one of the main reasons for the recent continuous improvement in the liquidity level of the crypto market and it is also an important reason for the recent strong performance of BTC -Due to the lack of safe-haven properties the performance of non-BTC cryptos depends more on the changes in macro liquidity and the game status of on-site funds. -Altcoins have got some advantage in the liquidity competition with ETH which has further adverse effects on the performance of ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1777858835904151581) 2024-04-10T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024😐 Summary: - Traders have priced in only one rate cut this year - The far-month skewness of both BTC and ETH options has declined significantly indicating that investors have begun to gradually adjust their forward expectations for the price performance of BTC and ETH - Compared with BTC traders attitude towards ETH is more bearish than bullish For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1778184423160356882) 2024-04-10T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024🧐 Summary: - Traders expect that the annualised overnight financing rate among banks will fall to 4.31% at the end of Oct [----] - Despite the price declines for BTC and ETH market makers' hedging behaviours have effectively stabilised prices - Investors' expectations for a fall in ETH appear to grow further For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1783227295400079782) 2024-04-24T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024🧐 Apr monthly settlement is on the way Summary: - The implied forward rate of BTC fell below 10% for the first time in three months indicating that investors are rapidly lowering their bullish expectations - The latest dealers' gamma distribution appears to hint at stronger signs of a decline after settlement ends - It seems traders are ready for weaker macro liquidity expectations and the latest PCE data to be released tomorrow may be the trigger of price downward For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1783590591760347419) 2024-04-25T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BloFin Whales View: After Halving Welcome to read our latest whale's view https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-after-halving-f701badc9734 https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-after-halving-f701badc9734" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1787535826110582884) 2024-05-06T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Summary: -A loose liquidity environment and new narrative outbreaks are the main determinants of the bull market after the Bitcoin halving. -The high-interest rate environment may last longer than expected but will not end the bull run. -Before interest rates significantly decline non-BTC cryptos performance may remain weak for a long time" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1787535828492898522) 2024-05-06T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Some interesting expectations from the derivatives market: - ETH may have a significantly higher tail risk than BTC. - ETHs upside potential is relatively low and selling ETH calls remains a popular strategy among traders. - The ETH/BTC exchange rate may weaken for a long time" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1787875729142870473) 2024-05-07T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Options traders appear to be leaning toward pessimism regarding the crypto market's performance in May. -Bearish sentiment pervades in front-month options whether their underlying assets are BTC or others. -Risk reversal positions are starting to appear in block trade records while some traders have begun buying puts directly. -Next week's CPI data will likely be a major source of risk aversion. Considering that investors generally tend to sell spots or hold put options for hedging before data is released the relatively sluggish performance of the crypto market may continue in recent days" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1788625492704362713) 2024-05-09T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Although the ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a new low since May [----] investors expect the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fall further according to the latest forward exchange rate term structure. Under the continued influence of risk aversion caused by macro uncertainty and the high interest rate environment it is difficult for non-BTC assets at the end of the liquidity chain to perform better shortly. #Bitcoin #Ethereum" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1790053029825454285) 2024-05-13T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Within [--] hrs the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell faster and the forward exchange rate term structure further showed that investors did not expect a rebound in the exchange rate. While ETH's market share dropped to around 15% the market share of altcoins also dropped below 19%. How do you think ETH and altcoins' performance in the future Welcome to leave a message below for discussion" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1791162362583773675) 2024-05-16T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "After the moment of decision: How will the price of ETH move🧐 While the SEC has yet to announce final decisions on the spot ETH ETFs investors appear to be well prepared for that whether the outcome is denial or approval. Lets see what information is implicit in the derivatives market: - Regardless of the outcome investor sentiment turned significantly bullish as uncertainty faded. - Although concerns about tail risk have increased slightly investors still do not expect dramatic intraday price movements in ETH. - The price change of ETH is expected to be no more than 8.1%/7days and" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1792616931373232409) 2024-05-20T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Only hours are left until the spot ETH ETFs' approval results are announced. Despite some adjustments the implied expectations of ETH derivatives investors still reveal enough new information to be valuable: - Whether the spot ETH ETFs are approved or not ETH's intraday price movement may exceed 8% which means that ETH's price will likely drop to $3500 or rise above $4100 within several hours. - Boosted by news about the spot ETH ETFs investors are more confident in ETH's long-term rise than in previous weeks. - However investors are still bullish about BTC's future performance. The risk" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1793704807674548316) 2024-05-23T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Monthly settlement: measuring the impact of hedging on the market Before the monthly settlement of derivatives in May the crypto market returned to a mode of operation dominated by "short-term calm." Similar things happen every month and many investors are deeply puzzled by this. In fact many people ignore a low-key but not negligible giant: market makers. - Options market makers make money from the non-delta dimensions which means that they regularly hedge the risk brought by price changes that is delta risk. - If the scale of options' open interests is large enough and there are enough" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1796264063049343012) 2024-05-30T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The expected adjustment in the interest rate market is also reflected in the crypto market. With the expectation of the first-rate cut returning to Sept investors' bullish sentiment has warmed up driving the price of mainstream crypto assets to rebound. Here are a few quick facts: - $BTC price may temporarily stabilize around $71k and then 📈 - Investors are still more optimistic😎 about $BTC Welcome to read on for details 👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1798069044991668731) 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Due to the hedging effect the price of BTC may temporarily stabilize around $71k. However after June [--] the hedging effect's resistance to the price of BTC at the current price level will disappear" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1798069049064378617) 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The ETH/BTC exchange rate term structure still shows a significant backwardation state. With the disappearance of frond-month speculative sentiment investors' expectations for ETH's relatively weak performance have increased" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1798069052726014310) 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Bank of Canada took the lead in cutting interest rates. Will the crypto bull market accelerate Let's take a look at some of the latest observed signals: - The skewness of ETH options has increased significantly and exceeded that of BTC options indicating that investors' bullish sentiment for non-BTC seems to have improved further. - ETH's dealers' cash gamma turned negative meaning that many traders who previously made profits by selling call options have closed their positions. Moreover market makers' hedging behaviour has become conducive to price increases. The ECB is also expected to" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1798425912876404845) 2024-06-05T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After the FOMC Meeting: How will the crypto market react Although it did not exceed expectations the Fed maintained a basically consistent statement as in May in the latest interest rate decision. This means that the interest rate path faced by the crypto market will not see more favourable changes and the bull market cycle will still proceed step by step. The Fed may cut interest rates [--] times in the next [--] months and more interest rate cuts have not yet been priced in. Investors' pricing of tail risks has returned to normal. Dealer's gamma shows that the risk of significant fluctuations in" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1801003097483002190) 2024-06-12T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The impact of the hedging effect on the crypto market seems to be gradually increasing with the arrival of the semi-annual settlement. 🧐 Some possible evidence is as follows: Despite the pullback in the prices of BTC and ETH both have received strong support near the gamma peak on the downward path. However the resistance on the upward path also increases rapidly as the settlement day approaches. The positive gamma peak of BTC is at $64k and $68k and the positive gamma peak of ETH is at $3.4k and $3.7k which means that the price of BTC may consolidate around $64k-68k while the price of ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1803196217373147623) 2024-06-18T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As the official launch date of the spot ETH ETFs approaches and @Consensys announces that the SEC has ended its further investigation about ETH traders have adjusted their forward expectations for ETH's performance📈: The front-end term structure of the ETH/BTC exchange rate has shown partial contango. Although traders are still not optimistic about ETH's long-term performance it has become a consensus among traders that ETH will strengthen for several months after the spot ETFs are launched. The risk premium difference between BTC and ETH has converged from more than 200bps at the peak to" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1803508338610807158) 2024-06-19T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Before the crypto witching day: weekly ahead Let's see what is happening and what will happen🤓 Currently overall market liquidity remains low and investors are not optimistic about future liquidity improvements Lots of investors lack confidence in future interest rate cuts The demand for safe-haven assets among investors has not waned but has instead increased Due to the updates on the Mt. Gox incident and semi-annually settlements safe-haven sentiment is dominating the market but the long-term expectations have not changed significantly More significant market fluctuations may occur in the" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319176975958112) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. The speculative positions in 3-Month SOFR Futures have turned to net short and the open interests in 2-yr T-notes net short also hit a new record indicating that investors lack confidence in future interest rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319180218179850) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. Institutions remain optimistic about 4-5 rate cuts within the next [--] months. Still the expected magnitude of these cuts remains low and the market is likely to stay in a high-interest-rate environment for an extended period" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319183846326457) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. The US bank lending rates have also remained high at 8.5% under high interest rates suppressing loan demand in the commercial and industrial sectors. Meanwhile the total amount of household deposits has not increased and investors have substantial investment demand which is favourable for the asset market" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319187562479816) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4. However the prices of safe-haven assets like gold which rose earlier remain high and continue to show relatively high volatility. Additionally DXY has maintained a relatively high level since the beginning of [----] indicating that the demand for safe-haven assets among investors has not waned but has instead increased" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319191546961994) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5. Therefore the liquidity in the crypto market is expected to remain constrained for a long time. In the short term due to the updates on Mt. Gox incident and semi-annual settlements safe-haven sentiment is dominating the market with a neutral to bearish outlook but long-term expectations have not changed significantly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319195426701498) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6. Significant market fluctuations may occur in the near term. Due to the decrease in the options/futures OI ratio the hedging activities of market makers have a significantly reduced impact on the market. Additionally if the support level at $61.5K is breached for BTC there is a higher downside risk and a lack of more support levels. Moreover after Jun [--] with the expiration of over 106k BTC options contracts and over 1.03m ETH options contracts the stabilizing effect from market makers on the crypto market will be further weakened potentially increasing market volatility" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1805319199784681485) 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Currently there is a large distribution of positive gamma at the $61K and $62K strikes which due to the market makers' hedging effects has stabilized BTC's price between these strikes. 🤓 Observing the changes in aggressors' options positions it is clear that their concerns about BTC's intraday downside risk are increasing while their expectations for an upward movement are diminishing.🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1806032605273608472) 2024-06-26T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "NDX just surpassed 20k. #BTC & #ETH will be the next.😎" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1806697614659973241) 2024-06-28T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Crypto in Broad Markets: How Will BTC Perform This Week Some quick facts: Investors' preference for risk-free assets has increased reflected in the broader macro asset allocation. In comparison the price movements of risk assets are now more affected by hedging behaviours. The liquidity level in the crypto market is expected to remain low for a foreseeable period. If some "unexpected" things happen the probability of downside risk remains high.🧐 For more welcome to read the thread below" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1807845550693531752) 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1. After the market opened on Jul [--] T-notes' yields rose rapidly. On the one hand the Fed used ON RRP to withdraw some liquidity from the market and the sale of treasuries pushed yields higher. At the same time due to the sharp decline in the yen/dollar exchange rate the Bank of Japan is also trying to stabilize Japanese government bond yields by selling U.S. treasuries and buying Japanese government bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1807845554128577010) 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. As the factors above drive up U.S. Treasury yields investors' preference for risk-free assets has also increased reflected in the broader macro asset allocation. The prices of safe-haven or risk-free assets such as gold silver and the DXY have collectively risen. The demand for gold from central banks worldwide is also climbing keeping gold prices at high levels driven by demand. In comparison the price movements of risk assets are now more affected by hedging behaviours" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1807845558104871353) 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. The Jun ADP data and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in below expectations increasing bond and money market investors' expectations for rate cuts. This caused the T-notes yield and the DXY to decline" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1808596054981685366) 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. Due to the impact of the recent large-scale ON-RRP the front-month SOFR rates rose. However overall expectations for rate cuts have not changed significantly and market liquidity is unlikely to improve substantially" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1808596058626535772) 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. In the crypto market the aggressors' open interest distribution of 7DTE and 14DTE BTC options reveals a divergence among investors regarding near-term BTC price changes. Apart from buying a large number of puts at the $60K strike for risk hedging aggressors generally believe that the potential for significant BTC price movement is limited and the extent of price declines remains controllable" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1808596062313328937) 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday the impact of macroeconomic data on the market may not be reflected until tomorrow. Last night the BTC experienced a significant drop fluctuating around the $57K-58K range. With the expiration of the Jul [--] options the gamma distribution across strike prices has changed considerably. There is a predominance of negative gamma around the 60K level and the market makers' hedging activities have accelerated the price decline. Additionally as the Jul [--] options expiration approaches the slight positive gamma at the current price levels will also turn" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1808938195884912947) 2024-07-04T18:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. Due to the sharp price movements in BTC the implied volatility of front-month options has increased rapidly. However no significant changes have been observed in far-month options" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1808938200557367361) 2024-07-04T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto in Broad Markets: How Will BTC Perform This Week Some quick facts: For the crypto market liquidity shortages remain a long-term issue unlikely to be fundamentally improved by future rate cuts. Investors remain optimistic about BTC's long-term performance while becoming increasingly pessimistic about its short-term performance. The risk of a substantial price drop may be alleviated. For more welcome to read the thread below🔽🔽🔽" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438478150431173) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. An institution-conducted survey indicates a significant increase in expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts with many believing that policy rates will be substantially lowered. As a result precious metal prices have started to retreat while DXY continues to decline" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438481585574070) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. According to the Sahm Rule if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by [----] percentage points or more relative to its low over the past [--] months the U.S. is in a recession. The current value is [----]. If the upward trend in the unemployment rate does not slow down it could indicate a substantial slowdown" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438484873863209) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. However it is important to note that the current reduction in hiring or increase in layoffs by companies is not due to "poor demand" but "high costs." The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is still recovering and the increase in the unemployment rate is mainly due to supply-side changes rather than demand-side deterioration. Corporate hiring demand might partially recover if the Fed cuts rates quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438489969922237) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5. Since [----] the primary seller of treasuries in the interest rate market has been the Fed which has opted for QT by letting holdings mature without reinvestment. However the Fed's QT follows a predetermined pace. Banks also need to digest historical inventories and many have reclassified their portfolios into Held-to-Maturity (HTM) accounts to absorb unrealised losses slowly. Consequently there is limited room for significant increases in treasury holdings which also limits the potential for a substantial decline in interest rates in the future" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438497620365372) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "6. Under the conditions above the market is expected to maintain high interest rates for the foreseeable future. For the crypto market liquidity shortages remain a long-term issue unlikely to be fundamentally improved by future rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1810438501734952984) 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Mid-Week Watch: Different Gamma Distribution Different Movements In the current high-interest-rate environment asset liquidity preferences have led to some interesting divergences across various markets. Abstracts: Liquidity-sensitive assets such as precious metals small-cap stocks and BTC are facing significant resistance at higher levels but once their prices decline volatility can increase rapidly. For assets with higher volatility risks and liquidity sensitivity investors tend to seek downside protection and take profits during upward movements. Conversely investors have stable" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147084751589580) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1. In the current high-interest-rate environment liquidity-sensitive assets such as precious metals and BTC exhibit similar GEX distributions: They face significant resistance at higher levels but once their prices decline volatility can increase rapidly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147088681697651) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. In comparison for large-cap and mega-cap stocks with good liquidity there is a concentration of positive gamma around ATM strikes causing both upward and downward price movements to encounter significant resistance resulting in a gradual overall price increase. On the other hand small-cap stocks exhibit a GEX distribution similar to other liquidity-sensitive assets: resistance to upward movements and a higher risk of downward volatility. @pgrenn" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147092989301222) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. One possible reason is that in a high-interest-rate environment different asset liquidity patterns lead to varied investor behaviour patterns. For assets with higher volatility risks and liquidity sensitivity investors tend to seek downside protection and take profits during upward movements. Conversely investors have stable expectations for the returns and volatility of large-cap and mega-cap stocks which are reflected in the options market and form different GEX distributions. The different GEX patterns ultimately result in distinct price movement patterns and volatility levels due to" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147097137402010) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5. Additionally the divergence in investors' sentiments between the front month and the far month has widened further. Recent macro events and weekly option deliveries are likely to significantly impact the gamma distribution further bringing additional risks" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147104917786886) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6. For ETH the hedging behaviour of market makers is one of the main factors that has driven the price to stabilize around $3.1k. Investors' bullish sentiment has also improved as the price has steadily recovered. However before more positive news is released considering that ETH option market makers have already priced in a relatively high level of volatility which enhances the effect of market makers' hedging it is difficult for ETH prices to tramp over the gamma peak" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811147109170880799) 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What is Altcoin and Altcoin Season Why has Altcoin Underperformed and Will Altcoin Season ever Come this cycle Altcoin season often referred to as #altseason" denotes a period when alternative #cryptocurrencies or #altcoins experience a surge in price and market dominance relative to #Bitcoin. Check out here 👇 https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-altcoin-season-and-why-has-altcoin-underperformed-this-cycle https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-altcoin-season-and-why-has-altcoin-underperformed-this-cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811297153207402932) 2024-07-11T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2. U.S. inflation data has been below expectations for two consecutive months. According to the Feds tradition of looking at [--] months of data one more month of approximately 0.2% MoM core inflation data could formally trigger rate cuts. It now appears that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is higher as reflected in the SOFR" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811477031793930654) 2024-07-11T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. However in the first half of [----] U.S. Hourly Earnings growth is still rising. Given that high real interest rates have not reduced output the risk of secondary inflation after rate cuts has become an investor bet. Net short positions in two-year U.S. Treasury futures have risen to a record 2.16m contracts" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1811477035665252533) 2024-07-11T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Mid-Week Watch: Beware of Potential Tail Risks Despite optimism about more rate cuts and great bull markets significant uncertainty remains regarding its actualization. Abstracts: Historical trends suggest that the 10-year treasury yield could spike following the GDP data release because of the potential reflation risk.🧐 The potential economic policies of the Trump administration the next possible US government are also affecting investors' expectations for long-term economic and market performance. Traders and market makers worry about tail risks from the FOMC meeting on Jul [--] and the" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1813711282731880777) 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1. The upcoming ECB rate decision 2024q2 US GDP data and the July FOMC meeting have been significant events to watch in the following weeks. Although current US Treasury yields are declining historical trends suggest that the 10-year treasury yield could spike following the GDP data release because of the potential reflation risk. Additionally the prolonged yield curve inversion might come to an end" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1813711286557172135) 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. The market currently forecasts a 2.5% GDP growth. However The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of [----] is 2.7% on Jul [--] up from 2.5% on Jul [--]. If growth exceeds expectations it would indicate solid economic resilience. This resilience suggests that previous market demand has not been entirely suppressed by high-interest rates potentially raising future inflation expectations and driving up long-term bond yields" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1813711290642391303) 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What is @ton_blockchain Leveraging Telegram's 900M Users. TON (The Open Network) is a Proof-of-Stake Layer [--] blockchain developed by the @telegram team and has become a community-driven ecosystem led by the #TON Foundation. Full insights here 👇 https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-ton-blockchain-leveraging-telegram-s-900m-users https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-ton-blockchain-leveraging-telegram-s-900m-users" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1813712972939923922) 2024-07-17T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto in Broad Markets: Higher Risks Some quick facts: Some institutions remind investors of a recession's potential risk after rate cuts. Be cautious about future performance in the high-risk equity market especially for tech stocks.🧐 For BTC and ETH concerns about short to medium-term tail risks are increasing.🧐 Affected by the rising market uncertainty level the term structure of BTC options remains relatively flat with a significant negative gamma range implying higher price fluctuation risks.🧐 For more welcome to read the thread below🔽🔽🔽" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815506060679209127) 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. This week let's start with a discussion of macroeconomics. According to Goldman Sachs global macroeconomic data in 2024q2 was weaker than expected. Led by the US and EU a global rate-cut cycle may soon begin. While some believe a rate cut in Jul is not impossible the market does not have high expectations. Although the market is preparing for a rate cut in Sept it should also be ready for the "out of expected" Jul rate cut. Therefore the 2024q2 GDP data has become essential and may significantly impact market expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815506064152182792) 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. According to @BofA_Business's Global Fund Manager Survey 46% of investors believe the US will not experience a recession in the next [--] months and only 8% think the US will enter a recession in 2024h2. However BCA holds a more pessimistic view suggesting that recessions typically begin shortly after the Fed starts cutting rates with the Beveridge curve reaching a turning point. BCA predicts the US economy will enter a recession in late [----] or 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815506068086338018) 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. Historical precedents include the Fed beginning to cut rates [--] months before the [----] recession in Jun [----] [--] months before the Internet bubble burst in Jan [----] and four months before the Great Recession in Sept [----]. By the time Lehman Brothers collapsed the Fed had already cut rates by [---] bps. While we acknowledge the possibility of a recession following rate cuts the likelihood is not high. Nevertheless we should be cautious about future performance in the high-risk equity market especially for tech stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815506073648050290) 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4. Back to the crypto market: Although investors' concerns about long-term market risks are slightly easing for BTC concerns about short- to medium-term tail risks are increasing. In contrast for ETH worries about tail risks in both the short and long term are rising. Fortunately investors are more optimistic about the long-term market outlook and the short- to medium-term sentiment remains relatively positive" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815506077649363402) 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. The successful launch of the ETH ETFs has reduced market uncertainty and pushed IVs down especially for intraday and weekly options. As a result the term structure of ETH options has steepened again. As the beginning of a new round of asset allocation period investors are displaying optimism for both the short and long-term performance of ETH price" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815827278359912507) 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. Similarly for BTC there is significant negative dealers' gamma around the ATM strike prices leading to intense price fluctuations within the negative gamma range without a clear upward trend. Notably the most crucial contribution to gamma currently comes from the expiring Jul [--] options. After these options expire the gamma distribution will change a lot and the price movement may change more. With the upcoming PCE data release and FOMC meeting the level of market uncertainty will remain high in the following days" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815827287415369804) 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4. It must be admitted that potential fat-tail risks are intensifying. BTC's relative tail risk pricing is higher than that of ETH and has reached its highest level since May. After the spot ETH ETFs were released ETH's tail risk pricing decreased but BTC's increased. One possible reason is that in addition to event risks brought by ETH ETFs the Nashville Bitcoin conference and macro risks other "unknown but possible incident risks" are priced into the market. With changes in the US political landscape investors are seemingly more concerned about the impact of political factors on the" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1815827291685237045) 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The power of gamma" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816184673191788924) 2024-07-24T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tips: American options have more dramatic gamma variations than vanilla options which means that market makers hedging behaviour will be more drastic and amplify market volatility when they hold a full hand of negative gamma.😈 https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/35163/american-options-relation-between-greeks https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/35163/american-options-relation-between-greeks" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816186244088619435) 2024-07-24T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Monthly Settlement: 0DTE & Overhedge Abstracts: Market makers' overhedging for 0DTE options is the main reason for the plunge in BTC and ETH. 🧐 Investors remain optimistic about BTC's short- and medium-term price trends.🥰 The current price supports for BTC and ETH are primarily contributed by the 0DTE options expiring on Jul [--] meaning the uncertainty in the crypto market may be higher tomorrow.🧐 For more welcome to read our latest analysis below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816542009651528026) 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. Around [--] a.m. HKT&SGT on July [--] due to the continuous selling after the launch of the spot ETH ETFs market makers realized that they had accumulated too many overnight risky positions. Considering the approaching monthly settlement market makers overhedged most of their 0DTE options positions within 10-15 minutes to deal with the cumulated excess delta exposure. Driven by a large number of market sell orders the prices of BTC and ETH plunged instantly" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816542015896846433) 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. Investors' concerns about BTC's short-term risks are increasing rapidly while expectations for medium- and long-term risks are declining. The monthly settlement the upcoming PCE data and the Bitcoin Conference may have jointly driven the increase in short-term tail risk pricing. Fortunately investors remain optimistic about BTC's short- and medium-term price trends" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816542019919184380) 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. Another risk is that positive gamma from the 0DTE options currently supports BTC's $64k support level. After these options expire tomorrow there is a substantial price fluctuation risk with insufficient gamma support and resistance strikes to prevent further movement" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816542023496978695) 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4. For ETH investors' expectations for medium- to long-term tail risks have dropped significantly. However investors have also lowered their bullish expectations for ETH's performance which is common at the beginning of an asset allocation period. It is worth noting that similar to BTC ETH's current price support and resistance also mainly come from the 0DTE option expiring on July [--]. Therefore the uncertainty level in the crypto market tomorrow may be higher" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1816542027196309952) 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3. The GEX data reveals a substantial negative gamma between $65k and $70k exacerbating price volatility. This negative gamma is primarily contributed by options expiring on Aug [--] which dominate the BTC options market. As the expiration date approaches market price fluctuations may increase necessitating heightened risk management in the coming days" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818352599172878546) 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4. It must be admitted that negative gamma does not only dominate the crypto market. In the US stock market SPY and QQQ have experienced significant declines caused by negative gamma hedging and the high volatility risk has made NVDA's front-month implied volatility level significantly surpass that of cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Negative gamma means greater potential volatility and any price changes caused by good or bad news may be substantially amplified due to market makers' hedging behaviour" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818352603379777932) 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5. Interestingly GLD representing gold and IWM representing small-cap stocks did not fall and rose slightly. Although risk aversion is one of the factors affecting the performance of gold prices it must be admitted that the hedging behaviour of market makers has stabilized the price trend thanks to positive gamma which also happened in the price of ETH. Let us witness how the global market will move next" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818352608693862627) 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What is PolitiFi Hottest Memecoins in [----] U.S. Election 🗳 PolitiFi short for Political Finance combines meme coins with political themes creating a unique intersection between digital assets and political engagement. Learn more 🔽 https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-politifi-hottest-memecoins-in-2024-u.s.-election https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-politifi-hottest-memecoins-in-2024-u.s.-election" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818354432155041979) 2024-07-30T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. In the crypto market traders have already priced in the end of the events for BTC and ETH options. Two days ago traders even started selling volatility and the pricing of the FOMC event in Forward IVs has disappeared" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818711946369069375) 2024-07-31T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. However from the perspective of skewness crypto investors' expectations are still relatively positive. Due to the asset allocation period investors are still conservative about ETH's performance in Aug. Still the mediumand long-term bullish sentiment remains robust and slightly higher than that of BTC. In contrast investors' bullish views on BTC remain consistent from the short to the long term with more negative gamma to BTC and more upside potential" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1818711951071232217) 2024-07-31T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It appears that the interbank market is also pricing in more rate cuts. Unlike Fed Fund Futures traders the SR3 traders are pricing in an additional rate cut that could occur in Oct [----] rather than a 50bps cut in Sep [----]. [--] bp cut in September Markets are currently pricing a 20% probability on that outcome according to CME #FedWatch. https://t.co/fPlRItPqfv [--] bp cut in September Markets are currently pricing a 20% probability on that outcome according to CME #FedWatch. https://t.co/fPlRItPqfv" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1819111957842350203) 2024-08-01T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto in Broad Markets: Plunge Abstracts: The market maker's hedging effect on support and resistance levels has nearly failed resulting in a "random walk" market.🥲 Monitoring the magnitude and speed of rate gap changes between the Fed and BoJ is crucial.🧐 Crypto options traders may believe the impact of unwinding carry trade will not last long. However it must be affirmed that the price fluctuation is not over yet; be cautious when catching a falling knife.🧐 For more welcome to read our threads below👇👇👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1820550534576902550) 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1. Today both the equity and crypto markets experienced significant volatility. The US equity market has a substantial buildup of negative gamma. In contrast for BTC the market maker's hedging effect on support and resistance levels has nearly failed resulting in a "random walk" market where risk control becomes even more critical" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1820550538037194804) 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. The bond and FX markets indicate that the fundamental impact of the recent BoJ rate hike is gradually clearing. As a result even the Japanese equity index the Nikkei225 has shown some recovery after the historical plunge. The yield curve inversion in US Treasuries is also ending progressively" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1820550542177034310) 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. The primary concern should be whether the current market risks have been fully priced in and what expectations should be held for the short to medium term. Although slightly delayed the BoJ's rate hike was anticipated. The next step is to observe the BoJ's future actions. The BoJ may lack sufficient cash reserves to continue intervening through the bond market and might opt for rapid rate hikes to narrow the interest rate gap with the Fed bringing the yen to a more reasonable level. Therefore monitoring the magnitude and speed of rate gap changes between the Fed and BoJ is crucial" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1820550546107007175) 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4. Fortunately the likelihood of carry trade unwind triggering a complete turnaround in the US financial cycle is low as the fundamental employment and economic data do not support an impending recession. However the end of the carry trade still affects investor sentiment and bearish expectations in the short and medium term are spreading across multiple markets. If the Fed-BoJ interest rate gap narrows rapidly asset prices will likely fall further" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1820550549902852325) 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2. According to JPMorgan's calculations As of Aug [--] 65% of short yen positions have been covered with adjustments in net yen futures positions seemingly outpacing spot movements. The short-covering could potentially reach 60-80%" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1821283079639724260) 2024-08-07T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5. Interestingly during recent declines mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks which suggests that the significant drops in the US equity market were more due to liquidity withdrawals than fundamental weaknesses which remain manageable. This is one reason investors are relatively optimistic about the mediumand long-term expectations for most assets" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1821283091820024255) 2024-08-07T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1. After a series of market fluctuations investors' panic has significantly calmed down broadly aligning their expectations regarding future rate cuts and diminishing speculative sentiment. However today's weaker-than-expected PPI data has reignited better expectations of rate cuts leading to a rally in the US equity market. Despite this the interest rate market's reaction remained within the bounds of existing expectations indicating that investors are cautiously optimistic but not overly reactive" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1823488386314985751) 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2. BofA predicts that the outflows from the equity market triggered by the early August market turbulence may persist for four to six weeks consistent with our previous expectations. Given the unwinding of carry trades and the gradual decline in the use of alternative liquidity tools a short-term consolidation in risky asset markets is inevitable" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1823488390190522388) 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4. It must be pointed out that concerns about a hard landing persist mainly due to potential weaknesses in the labour market. Even temporary employment softness could signal more severe trends ahead such as direct layoffs and an increase in permanent unemployment. Therefore once the latest CPI data shows that inflation has further eased interest rate cuts will have to be put on the agenda to minimize the possibility of a "hard landing"" [X Link](https://x.com/BloFin_Academy/status/1823488395181728222) 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@BloFin_Academy BloFin Academy
BloFin Academy posts on X about blofin, bitcoin, crypto, hedging the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] -23%
- [--] Month [------] +101%
- [--] Months [-------] +238%
- [--] Year [-------] +121%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +30%
- [--] Month [--] +11%
- [--] Months [---] +186%
- [--] Year [---] +11%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.26%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.73%
- [--] Months [-----] +4.40%
- [--] Year [-----] +4.90%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence exchanges #4990 finance cryptocurrencies stocks countries currencies technology brands us election social networks automotive brands
Social topic influence blofin #12, bitcoin, crypto, hedging, sentiment, longterm, stocks, fed, inflation, ethereum
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @genesisvol @amberdataio @blofinofficial @cmegroup @deribitofficial @wublockchain @deribitexchange @interestrates @godbole17 @coinglasscom @nansenai @realrich1x @coinmarketcap @glassnode @stlouisfed @realdonaldtrump @jpmorgan @menthorqpro @crynetio @4adybug
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) USDC (USDC) Solana (SOL) TradersCoin (TRDC) Optimism (OP) CME Group Inc (CME) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"1. The downturn in the crypto market continues. Affected by the news that "the number of interest rate hikes by the Fed is expected to increase to [--] times during the year and the rate hike will be carried out as soon as March" the prices of mainstream cryptos continued to fall"
X Link 2022-01-10T15:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. Market risk aversion detonated as if in an instant. Volatility jumped to highs as all risk asset markets fell to varying degrees on the looming Federal Reserve meeting and the cloud of war in Ukraine"
X Link 2022-01-24T15:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. The U.S. PCE index hit another 40-year high while consumer confidence hit a 10-year low. As the economic situation slowed Kashkari and other Fed governors began to calm the market. Commodities stocks and more have bounced back again including crypto of course"
X Link 2022-01-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. As risk asset markets start to price in more interest rate hike expectations from central banks the rebound continues both in the crypto and stock markets"
X Link 2022-03-29T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. The U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hit its lowest level since July [----] in April which seems to indicate a recession is coming. Nonetheless a [--] basis point rate hike in May is primarily set"
X Link 2022-04-25T16:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. Bitcoin fell below $30000 on Tuesday as both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies suffered from a sell-off caused by aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and fears of a recession"
X Link 2022-05-10T02:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/6. The U.S unemployment rate in May remained the same as in March. It seems that the [--] bps interest rate hike did not have much impact on employment in the U.S and the labor force was still relatively robust"
X Link 2022-06-06T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/9. With the CPI index higher than expected the Fed stopped taking 'pause the interest rate hike in Sep' into consideration and it will have to remain hawkish at its Sep meeting. A [--] bps rate hike in both Jun and Jul looks inevitable and a [--] bps hike even seems possible"
X Link 2022-06-13T03:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/9. As the investors reevaluated the expectation of the Fed interest rate hike the U.S stock market continued to be under pressure and fell significantly. Also the crypto market seems to have fallen to a level where there is 'no room for further down'"
X Link 2022-06-14T03:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/8. The slump in the U.S stock market and the crypto market early today stopped and rebounded. Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in [----] appear to have fueled a rebound in tech stocks benefiting the crypto market as well"
X Link 2022-07-06T03:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks again extinguishing expectations of interest rate cuts next year one after another. While there are not so many events in the market in August liquidity pressures in the crypto market look likely to persist in the short term"
X Link 2022-08-04T04:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. Today's Asian crypto investors don't seem so optimistic. Affected by the FOMC Meeting the prices of encrypted assets are still slowly falling in the Asian session and judging from the derivatives market data risk aversion is rising rapidly"
X Link 2022-09-21T04:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/9. A significant decline of Asian stocks followed the Fed's expected 75bps rate hike today and it added more certainties and debates among global investors. As US [--] Year Treasury Rate hiked up along with the interest rates Asian bonds followed too"
X Link 2022-09-23T07:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/9. Major Asian currencies are tumbling vs. USD recently. Many investors suspect that the decline of major Asian currencies such as JPY might trigger an Asian financial crisis due to the Fed's hawkish policy"
X Link 2022-09-26T08:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. Asian stocks and currencies sank again and a further decline in the Japanese Yen that had already passed the critical level may trigger government intervention. DXY continues soaring and S&P [---] just experienced the lowest intraday since November 2020"
X Link 2022-10-12T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. The setback of some big-tech companies' quarterly earnings led to volatile changes in the S&P [---]. However the BoC took the lead in slowing rate hikes in a sign that the rate hike cycle appears to be nearing an end. As a result both stocks and cryptos rallied"
X Link 2022-10-26T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/6. Asian stocks rebounded in the morning while US stocks slipped before the #FOMC meeting. Investors speculated that the strong #DXY would carry to the next year and correlate with #Fed's hawkish monetary policy which would not be favorable for Asian investors"
X Link 2022-11-01T07:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. Markets remained relatively steady following the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data with investors remaining somewhat cautious ahead of the December FOMC meeting despite the Fed hinting at easing policy to reduce the threat of a recession"
X Link 2022-12-02T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/5. The U.S. stock market was closed for a day and the crypto market also ushered in a temporary calm after last week's rise. BTC held above $21k while ETH was approaching $1600 which had jumped more than 32% by market value from the beginning of this year"
X Link 2023-01-17T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/5. Investors are targeting the $1600 gamma resistance for another run. They were successful for a while but the price of ETH was still firmly suppressed below $1600 around the US session opening"
X Link 2023-01-18T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/6. Although the FOMC meeting has ended the latest non-farm payroll data following it as well as the huge size of short-term directional positions in the derivatives market has caused the short-term shocks in the crypto market to continue"
X Link 2023-02-02T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/4. Affected by strong economic data that boosted rate hike expectations investors' expectations have retreated and the performance of crypto has also begun to decline. BTC failed again to challenge resistance at $25k and fell while other mainstream tokens followed its step"
X Link 2023-02-21T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/6. The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting showed that the possibility of a 50bps rate hike is still low which may push up the crypto prices. BTC rebounds to higher than $24k during AS session while the crypto market seems to absorb the panic sentiment of the sudden drop"
X Link 2023-02-23T10:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/6. Silvergate Bank's announcement to wind down operations has dealt a minor shock to the crypto market making the bearish sentiment continue to spread. As of now BTC has fallen about 2% intraday to $21.7k"
X Link 2023-03-09T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/5. Although BTC's decline was accompanied by a weakening of momentum there was still not enough sentiment to keep the price support. From an order flow perspective it is clear that liquidity in the market is decreasing at an extreme rate both in terms of ask and bid orders"
X Link 2023-03-09T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/5. The illiquidity of the altcoin is more severe than the decline of BTC. As people can see from the chart the continued decline has swept away the altcoins' sentiment compared to January's alt season"
X Link 2023-03-09T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/6. BTC has experienced a short-term drop in price currently hovering around $27.7k. Meanwhile the decline in altcoins is more severe and market sentiment has become tenser due to the upcoming FOMC meeting"
X Link 2023-03-21T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/7. BTC continues to experience ongoing fluctuations while other altcoins are also currently experiencing a liquidity crunch. Considering that the quarterly settlement of the crypto market is imminent and important economic data will still be released this week market volatility may continue"
X Link 2023-03-27T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As IVs have repeatedly broken through the historical low sellers in the crypto options market have to maintain relatively cautiousness which makes them hold a large number of positive gamma positions in their hands and their hedging behavior under low volatility further maintains the stability of the market. However after the monthly settlement in May the positive gamma exposure near the current spot price will disappear a lot which may signal the rising uncertainty level after the end of May"
X Link 2023-05-22T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Investors' wait-and-see sentiment continued to rise accompanied by a decline in the trading volume of spot and derivatives and a decline in market volatility. The weekly and monthly implied volatility of ETH once broke through the YTD lows record which means that investors may not even be as enthusiastic about trading as they are during the Christmas and New Year holidays"
X Link 2023-05-23T13:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Jul [--] 2023🧐 Investors are regaining their preference for cash and short-dated treasuries as bets on further Fed rate hikes mount which is also continuing to influence the crypto market. Before this week's macro data release more investors may be on the sidelines while market makers may be one of the few active trading groups. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below 👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-07-11T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Jul [--] 2023🧐 While the crypto market remains relatively calm the treasury bond and interest rate markets are undercurrents. On the one hand traders are pricing in a more extended period of peak interest rates while also pricing in the possibility of a"
X Link 2023-07-25T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Even the FTX event didn't trigger a massive liquidation like today because today's event was TOTALLY UNEXPECTED"
X Link 2023-08-18T07:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@lmcdcrma @Blofin_Official @tradingview @Gravity5ucks @genesisvol @Amberdataio @WuBlockchain Sure the impact of OI decline and large-scale liquidation cannot also be ignored"
X Link 2023-08-18T07:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🧐 There are still [--] hours until Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole summit but investors' bearish sentiment is already evident in traditional markets. In the crypto market investors have not yet shown a bearish sentiment similar to the traditional market. However further pricing of uncertainty is also proceeding in parallel with the traditional market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-08-24T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🧐 After passing the "Jackson Hole moment" without much risk we ushered in the "Non-farm payrolls data week." Considering that this week's non-farm payroll data is directly related to the decisions of the Sept FOMC meeting the level of macro uncertainty this week remains relatively high. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-08-28T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🥳 Grayscale wins lawsuit against SEC triggering jubilation in crypto markets. Investors believe there may be only one step to the passage of spot Bitcoin ETF. However The unexpected rise also appeared to have hit some options sellers hard. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-08-29T17:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Aug [--] 2023🙂 Under macro pressure price rebounds caused by good news are often short-lived. Although relatively weak economic data has reduced the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Fed liquidity pressure has not diminished. However from"
X Link 2023-08-30T16:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🧐 Although the recession risks brought by high interest rates have begun to emerge Fed officials still maintain a hawkish attitude pushing the DXY index to rise further to the second highest level after March this year while risk asset prices also fell back with the DXY index rising. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below 👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-09-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023😶 For crypto investors higher interest rates mean lower earnings expectations. Taking the 10-year T-notes yield (approximately 4.27%) as the risk-free rate of return the expected return of ETH has been significantly lower than the risk-free return and the difference between the BTC expected return and the risk-free return is also shrinking further; that's not a good sign. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-09-14T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""The new bull market is likely to come later and compared to the previous bull market the new bull market may be more moderate. "🧐 Welcome to read our latest flow insights:"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🧐 Entering the last week of September derivatives settlement for the 2023q3 will take place this Friday and a series of macro data represented by PCE data will also be released on Friday. Notably the role of @CMEGroup in crypto derivatives"
X Link 2023-09-25T12:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Sept [--] 2023🦔 As the quarterly settlement date approaches the impact of hedging behavior on the crypto market becomes more significant. Although the hedging behavior of market makers has smoothed the fluctuations to a certain extent as gamma exposure"
X Link 2023-09-27T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🤔 The calm in the crypto market appears to be continuing. Investors' preference for the US dollar and risk-free returns has further suppressed the performance of risk assets and the crypto market is no exception. Under the combined influence of risk aversion and bearish sentiment BTC's market capitalization share in the crypto market exceeded 50% while ETH's market capitalization share fell below 18%. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-09T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🧐 The unexpected rebound in PPI data is not good news for the crypto market. Inflation on the production side will eventually be transmitted to the consumption side eventually leading to a rebound in CPI. It is clear that high interest rates above 5% and liquidity shortages will still be the main problems the risk asset market needs to face before inflation shows substantial improvement. Besides The upcoming CPI data and Fed meeting minutes will bring more uncertainty. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-11T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🤡 The new week of the crypto market began with dark humor. The fake news that "SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETF" pushed the price of BTC to more than $30000 quickly and then the price fell back as the news was fake. Within an hour it was over. Interestingly fake news had only a "limited" impact on the crypto market. With the spot Bitcoin ETF pending investors are still looking forward to more good news. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-16T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🙂 The liquidity crunch seems to be ending which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market. However the impact of positive sentiment appears to be concentrated only on BTC. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-17T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023😶 At a time when geopolitical risks are rising "holding the dollar" and "shorting treasuries" has become one of the most popular trading. In contrast the cryptos' short-lived upward momentum appears over and the crypto market returns to calm again. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-18T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023😎 Last weekend was not quiet for the crypto markets. The sudden rise caught investors off guard and some traders suffered heavy losses from their short positions. At the same time there has been a significant rebound in implied volatility for major cryptocurrencies. It must be admitted that sentiment in the crypto market has rebounded significantly and the "liquidity ceiling" sealing the crypto market has also shown some signs of loosening; perhaps we can witness more surprises this week. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-23T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"According to @Coinmarketcap BTCs market share increased by more than 2% in [--] hours and is currently approaching 54%"
X Link 2023-10-24T02:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🙂 This week the crypto market will be hit by central bank meetings like the FOMC meeting and a series of macro data represented by non-farm payrolls while bets on spot Bitcoin ETFs are still dominating the volatility of the crypto market. Against the background of a combination of macro uncertainty and internal uncertainty the implied volatilities are still relatively high. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-30T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Oct [--] 2023🎃 It is relatively high that policymakers will "stand still" for some time and the liquidity situation of the risk asset markets may also improve. Even considering the impact of bullish expectations from spot Bitcoin ETF improved liquidity expectations are already partially reflected in the crypto derivatives market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-10-31T18:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Rally View: The Dawn of a New Bull Market 1/ Although the latest rebound began with fake news after that a series of good news pushed the crypto market cap to more than $1.3T. However can this rebound be sustained or even become the starting point of a new bull market"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ The current rising sentiment mainly comes from two aspects: the expectation of spot Bitcoin ETF and the expectation that the "interest rate hike cycle is about to end." The latter is currently relatively more dominant"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"9/ To sum up after this round of rallies there is still some time before the new bull market while the main risks in the crypto market come from the current high leverage level and some uncertain factors that have not yet been priced within the crypto market"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"10/ The rate hike cycle is about to end and the macro environment is relatively favorable for the crypto market. However when expectations rather than reality flood the market investors tend to use higher leverage to get profits whether in traditional or crypto markets"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😎 As central banks once again pressed the "pause" button on interest rate hikes while publicly acknowledging or tacitly admitting that "the interest rate hike cycle is about to end" the improvement in the macro environment was finally reflected in the interest rate market. Traders have priced in the Fed's first rate cut to occur in May [----] with the rate cuts expected to reach [---] bps throughout [----]. For the crypto market this means that a return of liquidity is coming. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-11-06T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🤔 The unexpected increase in the monthly rate of US wholesale trade sales in September indicates that inflation may be "stickier than expected." Besides the real-time inflation that has rebounded to above 3% also shows that the Fed still needs to maintain liquidity pressure. Notably the Reserve Bank of Australia recognized as a "moderate central bank" announced a [--] bps interest rate hike this week which means that the opening of "liquidity faucets" is still an "expectation" that will not be realized shortly. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts"
X Link 2023-11-08T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Rally View: One Step of CME New Narrative of Crypto"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ According to @coinglass_com at noon yesterday when the total crypto market cap exceeded $1.4T @CMEGroup formally obtained the highest market share of BTC Delta [--] derives. Although this news did not attract much attention it was a landmark moment for the crypto market"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/ In the early years the relationship between BTC and global macro was not so significant. As time goes by BTC has become more widely used as a decentralized global liquidity network and the price changes of BTC have also tended to be consistent with global liquidity change"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ BTC combines the advantages of gold and FX. As a global liquidity network the transfer of liquidity is relatively easy via BTC and the price movement of BTC can reflect changes in global liquidity levels in time"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ BTC can also act as a hedge in the short term because it can also play the temporary "liquidity channel" and "safe haven" for at-risk funds. Moreover BTC is more decentralized than FX and is not easily affected by the policies of governments and central banks"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ From a correlation perspective starting from 2022Q4 the correlation between BTC and gold Nasdaq and the US dollar gradually becomes insignificant. To some extent the above means that BTC is beneficial to diversifying the portfolio's overall risk and reducing vol"
X Link 2023-11-10T12:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😏 Before the release of the latest CPI data in the US and the EU the risk of "inflation stickiness" caused traders to again bet on long-term high interest rates. Expensive liquidity costs have made it difficult for investors to push large amounts of cash into the crypto and other risk asset markets. Interestingly the crypto market does not appear to be significantly affected by macro pressures and the strong performance continues. However the risks arising from price increases driven by high leverage cannot be ignored. For more welcome to read our latest quick"
X Link 2023-11-13T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🤔 The improvement in macroeconomic expectations has promoted the joint rebound of the crypto market and US stocks. However the price rebound supported by high leverage is ultimately difficult to sustain in the long term. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-11-16T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023🙂 Macro uncertainty levels dropped significantly as Thanksgiving approached. After a series of important data were released last week traders in the interest rate market ruled out the possibility of another interest rate hike. Also they believed that the rate cut would reach [---] bps in the next year. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has laid a solid foundation for a possible crypto bull market next year and investors have maintained a firm bullish sentiment. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-11-20T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Nov [--] 2023😀 The latest macro data brings a lot of good news. European inflation fell significantly faster than expected while US PCE data did not exceed expectations. In addition even the "sticky" US inflation may fall below 3% in [----] and finally reach the inflation target in [----]. It seems that policymakers will no longer easily consider further liquidity contraction and the crypto market will benefit significantly from this. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-11-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023😀 The weekend's further rebound pushed the crypto market cap to exceed $1.5T which announced the early arrival of the "technical bull market" in the crypto market. Investors are also increasingly optimistic about changes in the macro environment. In the interest rate market traders have priced in a [---] bps cut next year with the first rate cut expected to occur earlier than May. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇 #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #CryptoNews @genesisvol @Amberdataio @nansen_ai @CMEGroup @glassnode @DeribitExchange"
X Link 2023-12-04T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023🎄 As Christmas approaches the impact of the hedging behaviour of market makers on prices is becoming increasingly significant pushing the price of BTC back to above $44000. At the same time some altcoins sought after by investors do not seem to be affected by the holiday and their trading volume and price performance are still hot. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-12-20T20:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Dec [--] 2023🎄 There is still one day left until the crypto witching day and the hedging effect is pushing the prices of BTC and ETH to "anchor points" near gamma peak which is driving a significant increase in the price of ETH and pushing the ETH/BTC exchange rate to a nearly one-month high. However ETH's outstanding intraday price performance did not change investors' different expectations for BTC and ETH. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2023-12-27T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 The crypto market appears to have recovered from yesterdays deleveraging. The process for a Bitcoin spot ETF is still well underway and the latest employment data suggests an economic soft landing is well underway as well. Traders in the interest rate market were not worried by the stronger macro data which also laid a good foundation for the subsequent performance of the crypto market. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-04T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 This week is the launching moment for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Although macroeconomic data shows that the possibility of the Fed taking robust liquidity release policies is still relatively high and has suppressed interest rate cut expectations to a certain extent the game on the final results of spot ETFs has temporarily made the impact of macro factors less noticeable. So how high will investor enthusiasm push the prices of BTC and ETH For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-08T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😎 Less than [--] hours are left until the "final approval point" for the BTC spot ETF. However the drama was just beginning: A real SEC account was compromised to post the "fake" approval tweet and just minutes later SEC Chairman Gary Gensler clarified the tweet as fake news. The crypto market has seen violent intraday swings as a result while investors are still waiting for the final approval results. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-09T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🥳 Finally after months of waiting the BTC spot ETFs have been approved today. In derivatives markets investors are already pricing in the uncertainty of a post-ETF era. In the futures market whether on crypto exchanges or CME the annualized premium of BTC has dropped significantly compared with before. This means that as BTC spot ETF expectations are realized the narrative window period in the next few months will have an adverse impact on BTCs earnings potential to a certain extent. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-10T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BloFin_Official @genesisvol @Amberdataio @VeloData @glassnode @nansen_ai"
X Link 2024-01-10T21:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🚀😎 After the BTC spot ETFs were approved investors focused on the follow-up effects brought about by the ETFs. At the same time the impact of changes in the macro environment is gradually returning. Although real-time CPI data shows that inflation is already in a steady decline the unexpectedly higher Dec CPI data and the sell the news behaviour on the first day of the BTC spot ETFs trading caused significant intraday fluctuations in the price of BTC. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-11T20:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🤔 Following a series of hawkish speeches by officials from the Fed and the ECB investors finally realized that the pace of interest rate cuts might not be as fast as imagined and adjusted their expectations promptly. Pricing of short-term tail risk appears to go hand in hand in both traditional and crypto markets. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-17T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As #BTC and #ETH prices fall investors and market makers are pricing in higher tail risk pushing [--] fly and [--] fly further upwards. If the price drop continues we may witness a sharp rise in intraday implied volatility"
X Link 2024-01-23T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024🧐 The Governor of the Bank of Canada's statement is basically consistent with that of Fed officials which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market. Uncertainty mainly comes from two aspects: investors' selling of Grayscale spot ETF shares has caused significant selling pressure for BTC. At the same time the Fed's interest rate decision remains "pending" and investors are still waiting for more information to be revealed at the next FOMC meeting. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-25T01:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Jan [--] 2024😶 Like the Bank of Canada the ECB also announced a relatively prudent interest rate decision that did not exceed expectations. In the interest rate market traders expect the ECB's first interest rate cut to occur in April-May which is consistent with expectations for the timing of the Fed's rate cut. In the crypto market prudent interest rate policies have pushed investor sentiment towards neutrality while volatility levels have also been further reduced as the market stabilizes. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-01-26T02:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"At the start of the new week's APAC session #ETH is dominated by more positive gamma and the resistance from market makers' hedging behaviour has just hit recent highs"
X Link 2024-01-29T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Agreed. Some additional comments: It seems traders expect the ETH/BTC exchange rate to remain lower and are unlikely to improve in the short term. We just made an ETH/BTC forward exchange rate term structure chart for reference. In this weeks crypto options unplugged I discuss with @davidbrickell80 why even these type of headlines in the near term may not be enough for an $ETH breakout due to dealer gamma positioning coming from large call overwriters. There was some sign of short covering in the https://t.co/q62bqfoLL0 In this weeks crypto options unplugged I discuss with @davidbrickell80"
X Link 2024-01-31T23:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🧐 This week the crypto market has returned to calm but in the calm environment some macro factors are adversely affecting the performance of crypto assets. Considering that the high interest rate environment will not change much in recent months investors' demand for cash has returned to a certain extent driving the rise of the DXY index. At the same time the prices of mainstream crypto assets have been weak. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-02-05T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🙂 Some investors also expect the recent market rebound to be a "steady and sustained process" which means that the possibility of a price breakthrough is relatively low. This appears to be true for ETH but BTC prices clearly have higher breakout potential. The hedging behaviour of market makers may push the price of BTC to rise significantly during the Lunar New Year. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-02-07T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024😎 Spot BTC ETFs' popularity has exceeded investor expectations to some extent. Even considering the impact of GBTC outflows the spot ETF market still provides steady cash liquidity for BTC with increasingly solid support for its price. The continued high implied forward rate indicates that investors expect that the prices of BTC and ETH still have enough momentum to continue to rise and are willing to pay more premiums to obtain higher forward returns relative to the current premium. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-02-08T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In the perpetual contract market speculative sentiment is returning. Funding rates for altcoins have risen significantly which means that investors' risk tolerance is weakening and any news may trigger serial liquidations and significant fluctuations"
X Link 2024-02-15T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🤔 "Are we approaching a short-term price ceiling" Some indicators: -The overall risk level in the crypto market appears to be increasing -Cash Inflow has slowed significantly in the past week -Hedging by market makers creates stronger price resistance For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below"
X Link 2024-02-21T04:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"⚠Some fresh risk indicators: -BTC's cash gamma has once again reached a relatively low level since Jan [----] which means that the hedging behaviour of market makers is "following the price movements" with sufficient momentum. -Currently for every 1% drop in BTC price market makers have to sell hedging positions with a notional value of more than $65M (approximately [----] BTC) and may even sell at the market price. -Block traders have begun selling risk reversals for tail protection and some have directly bought put options meaning expectations for a pullback have increased significantly"
X Link 2024-02-21T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Whale's View: Higher Leverage As the total market cap of the crypto market exceeds $2.1T many people are beginning to worry about whether the leverage in the crypto market is too high. Many indicators seem to indicate this is the case but at least for BTC the current leverage is not too high"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Cash liquidity from the US is an essential support for the performance of BTC and US stocks. From March [----] to now the total deposits of US commercial banks have only increased by 1.4% setting a new low since [----]. @stlouisfed"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Due to the credit bankruptcy of local commercial banks more investors have chosen money market funds US stocks and cryptos. In [----] alone the size of retail money market funds expanded by more than 46% the S&P500 and Nasdaq broke new highs and the price of BTC also rose by more than 200% in [----]. @stlouisfed"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ It must be acknowledged that the current overall leverage ratio is gradually approaching the "danger range". Cash liquidity calculated in stablecoins is only $133b which supports a market cap of more than $2T which means an overall leverage ratio of 15.24x"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ Although lower than the leverage level at the peak of the last bull market high leverage still implies that investors' risk tolerance is gradually being eroded which means that the potential risk of extreme volatility is further increasing"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ However the above risks are mainly for ETH and other altcoins because these tokens lack direct support from USD liquidity and can only obtain cash liquidity bridged through stablecoins. This is not the case for BTC"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ In addition to drawing liquidity from stablecoins spot ETFs have provided nearly $40b in direct USD liquidity to BTC. We assume that USDs liquidity is evenly distributed in market share. BTCs market share is about 52% which means that BTC can obtain about $69b in USDs liquidity and its total cash liquidity reaches $109b"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ The current total market cap of BTC is about $1.12T so we can calculate that the total leverage level of BTC is about 10.28x. Taking into account the additional USD liquidity we estimate that the real BTC total leverage level does not exceed 10x which is significantly lower than other cryptos. By comparison ETHs overall leverage is around 16.11x and assets like BNB and SOL also have overall leverage over 16x"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"9/ For further comparison the total supply of "USD in circulation" (M0) is close to $582.7b. In contrast the total market capitalization of global assets is roughly $127.13T meaning that global financial assets' total leverage is 21.14x. Even considering the impact of Eurodollars and other offshore dollars the total leverage ratio will not be lower than 15x. Interestingly BTC looks like a "relatively low-leverage" risk asset"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10/ To sum up the price of BTC still has considerable room for growth. Even if its leverage level increases to 15x the market cap of BTC will exceed $1.65T - which means that the price of each Bitcoin will be higher than $78000 and BTC's market share will easily exceed 60%"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"11/ Perhaps the possible launch of the spot Ethereum ETF will change this situation somewhat. Still this bull market will undoubtedly be dominated by BTC and global macro while many altcoins will continue to struggle in the bear-filled quagmire for much longer"
X Link 2024-02-27T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Feb [--] 2024🚀 BTC $64k Summary: - Option sellers expect that BTC's intraday price fluctuation will not be less than 4%. For ETH the seller's expected intraday fluctuation is about 4.5%. - The volatility range being priced in appears low compared to realized volatility levels. - "Up" is still most investors' medium- and long-term consensus and the differences only exist in the magnitude of the increase. For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below"
X Link 2024-02-28T21:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BTC ETFs hit new volume records on Feb [--]. Regarding shares volume @BlackRock IBIT's intraday trading volume is 2nd only to SQQQ while BITO's intraday trading volume ranks fourth. Top ETFs like SPY TQQQ and TLT pale in comparison. Even in USD trading volume IBIT has a higher volume than TLT"
X Link 2024-02-29T09:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024🚀 Traders have not changed their bullish stance on BTC and ETH following the end of deleveraging.😎 Summary: - For BTC the hedging behaviour of market makers will only form some resistance above $70k - The implied forward rates of BTC and ETH still maintain an upward trend without any signs of a pullback - Current put options trading is more about protection in deleveraging or a pullback than expressing a bearish view - More traders are still actively buying call options and rolling ATM call options to higher strike prices to avoid poor liquidity and higher"
X Link 2024-03-07T22:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Whale's View- Should We Do Some Preparation for the Possible Rejection of Spot ETH ETFs🧐 Welcome to read our latest whale's view below"
X Link 2024-03-11T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Summary: Compared to spot Bitcoin ETFs the negative impact of the PoS mechanism price manipulation risk and securitization risk significantly reduce the probability of spot ETH ETFs' approval.👀 Fortunately whether spot ETH ETFs are approved or not the final result will not affect the breakthrough of ETH price. 🙂 However as other competitors catch up ETH's market share may be challenging to increase further.🤔"
X Link 2024-03-11T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024😎 Another deleveraging with more potential risks. Summary: - It appears that event vol was one of the main reasons for the front-month implied volatility levels being close to their annual peaks - The rise in the butterfly index indicates that the crypto market is gradually pricing in more macro risks - Option block traders still believe that the upward trend of BTC and ETH will continue in the next 1-2 months For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:"
X Link 2024-03-12T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Whales View: Week [--] 2024🫡 Welcome to read our latest whale's view"
X Link 2024-03-18T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Summary: -This week is undoubtedly the most crucial week in 2024Q1. Major central banks led by the Bank of Japan and the Fed will announce interest rate decisions this week setting the tone for monetary policies in the coming months. -Due to the impact of safe-haven sentiment the prices of both BTC and ETH have experienced a certain degree of pullback but traders are more optimistic about BTC. -Benefiting from the early end of the deleveraging of altcoins the volatility of altcoin prices and the liquidation of altcoin derivatives are expected to impact the market less"
X Link 2024-03-18T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Mar [--] 2024😶 Summary: - The additional pricing for the latest FOMC meeting has been reflected in the prices of BTC and ETH options - Price changes of BTC and ETH will still face more significant uncertainty - Block traders seem to believe that the prices of BTC and ETH will not fall too sharply and will rebound upward shortly For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:"
X Link 2024-03-19T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Whales View: Quarterly Settlement and Game😎 Welcome to read our latest whale's view below https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-quarterly-settlement-and-game-3d3407a8e071 https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-quarterly-settlement-and-game-3d3407a8e071"
X Link 2024-03-28T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Summary: - Although the news of LSE's upcoming listing of BTC ETN and ETH ETN products has driven a significant price increase market makers' hedging behaviour is expected to prevail before the quarterly settlement - The change in the term structure of the ETH/BTC forward exchange rate seems to indicate that ETH is currently in the "oversold" range - Altcoins' leverage levels are beginning to show signs of recovery but no significant increase is expected before the quarterly settlement"
X Link 2024-03-28T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Blofin Whales View: War Gold and Crypto🧐 Welcome to read our latest whale's view https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-war-gold-and-crypto-2abaa6cb60ee https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-war-gold-and-crypto-2abaa6cb60ee"
X Link 2024-04-10T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Summary: -The rise in global uncertainty is one of the main reasons for the recent continuous improvement in the liquidity level of the crypto market and it is also an important reason for the recent strong performance of BTC -Due to the lack of safe-haven properties the performance of non-BTC cryptos depends more on the changes in macro liquidity and the game status of on-site funds. -Altcoins have got some advantage in the liquidity competition with ETH which has further adverse effects on the performance of ETH"
X Link 2024-04-10T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024😐 Summary: - Traders have priced in only one rate cut this year - The far-month skewness of both BTC and ETH options has declined significantly indicating that investors have begun to gradually adjust their forward expectations for the price performance of BTC and ETH - Compared with BTC traders attitude towards ETH is more bearish than bullish For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:"
X Link 2024-04-10T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024🧐 Summary: - Traders expect that the annualised overnight financing rate among banks will fall to 4.31% at the end of Oct [----] - Despite the price declines for BTC and ETH market makers' hedging behaviours have effectively stabilised prices - Investors' expectations for a fall in ETH appear to grow further For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:"
X Link 2024-04-24T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Quick Facts- Apr [--] 2024🧐 Apr monthly settlement is on the way Summary: - The implied forward rate of BTC fell below 10% for the first time in three months indicating that investors are rapidly lowering their bullish expectations - The latest dealers' gamma distribution appears to hint at stronger signs of a decline after settlement ends - It seems traders are ready for weaker macro liquidity expectations and the latest PCE data to be released tomorrow may be the trigger of price downward For more welcome to read our latest quick facts below:"
X Link 2024-04-25T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BloFin Whales View: After Halving Welcome to read our latest whale's view https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-after-halving-f701badc9734 https://medium.com/@BloFin_Official/blofin-whales-view-after-halving-f701badc9734"
X Link 2024-05-06T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Summary: -A loose liquidity environment and new narrative outbreaks are the main determinants of the bull market after the Bitcoin halving. -The high-interest rate environment may last longer than expected but will not end the bull run. -Before interest rates significantly decline non-BTC cryptos performance may remain weak for a long time"
X Link 2024-05-06T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Some interesting expectations from the derivatives market: - ETH may have a significantly higher tail risk than BTC. - ETHs upside potential is relatively low and selling ETH calls remains a popular strategy among traders. - The ETH/BTC exchange rate may weaken for a long time"
X Link 2024-05-07T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Options traders appear to be leaning toward pessimism regarding the crypto market's performance in May. -Bearish sentiment pervades in front-month options whether their underlying assets are BTC or others. -Risk reversal positions are starting to appear in block trade records while some traders have begun buying puts directly. -Next week's CPI data will likely be a major source of risk aversion. Considering that investors generally tend to sell spots or hold put options for hedging before data is released the relatively sluggish performance of the crypto market may continue in recent days"
X Link 2024-05-09T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Although the ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a new low since May [----] investors expect the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fall further according to the latest forward exchange rate term structure. Under the continued influence of risk aversion caused by macro uncertainty and the high interest rate environment it is difficult for non-BTC assets at the end of the liquidity chain to perform better shortly. #Bitcoin #Ethereum"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Within [--] hrs the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell faster and the forward exchange rate term structure further showed that investors did not expect a rebound in the exchange rate. While ETH's market share dropped to around 15% the market share of altcoins also dropped below 19%. How do you think ETH and altcoins' performance in the future Welcome to leave a message below for discussion"
X Link 2024-05-16T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After the moment of decision: How will the price of ETH move🧐 While the SEC has yet to announce final decisions on the spot ETH ETFs investors appear to be well prepared for that whether the outcome is denial or approval. Lets see what information is implicit in the derivatives market: - Regardless of the outcome investor sentiment turned significantly bullish as uncertainty faded. - Although concerns about tail risk have increased slightly investors still do not expect dramatic intraday price movements in ETH. - The price change of ETH is expected to be no more than 8.1%/7days and"
X Link 2024-05-20T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Only hours are left until the spot ETH ETFs' approval results are announced. Despite some adjustments the implied expectations of ETH derivatives investors still reveal enough new information to be valuable: - Whether the spot ETH ETFs are approved or not ETH's intraday price movement may exceed 8% which means that ETH's price will likely drop to $3500 or rise above $4100 within several hours. - Boosted by news about the spot ETH ETFs investors are more confident in ETH's long-term rise than in previous weeks. - However investors are still bullish about BTC's future performance. The risk"
X Link 2024-05-23T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Monthly settlement: measuring the impact of hedging on the market Before the monthly settlement of derivatives in May the crypto market returned to a mode of operation dominated by "short-term calm." Similar things happen every month and many investors are deeply puzzled by this. In fact many people ignore a low-key but not negligible giant: market makers. - Options market makers make money from the non-delta dimensions which means that they regularly hedge the risk brought by price changes that is delta risk. - If the scale of options' open interests is large enough and there are enough"
X Link 2024-05-30T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The expected adjustment in the interest rate market is also reflected in the crypto market. With the expectation of the first-rate cut returning to Sept investors' bullish sentiment has warmed up driving the price of mainstream crypto assets to rebound. Here are a few quick facts: - $BTC price may temporarily stabilize around $71k and then 📈 - Investors are still more optimistic😎 about $BTC Welcome to read on for details 👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Due to the hedging effect the price of BTC may temporarily stabilize around $71k. However after June [--] the hedging effect's resistance to the price of BTC at the current price level will disappear"
X Link 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The ETH/BTC exchange rate term structure still shows a significant backwardation state. With the disappearance of frond-month speculative sentiment investors' expectations for ETH's relatively weak performance have increased"
X Link 2024-06-04T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Bank of Canada took the lead in cutting interest rates. Will the crypto bull market accelerate Let's take a look at some of the latest observed signals: - The skewness of ETH options has increased significantly and exceeded that of BTC options indicating that investors' bullish sentiment for non-BTC seems to have improved further. - ETH's dealers' cash gamma turned negative meaning that many traders who previously made profits by selling call options have closed their positions. Moreover market makers' hedging behaviour has become conducive to price increases. The ECB is also expected to"
X Link 2024-06-05T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After the FOMC Meeting: How will the crypto market react Although it did not exceed expectations the Fed maintained a basically consistent statement as in May in the latest interest rate decision. This means that the interest rate path faced by the crypto market will not see more favourable changes and the bull market cycle will still proceed step by step. The Fed may cut interest rates [--] times in the next [--] months and more interest rate cuts have not yet been priced in. Investors' pricing of tail risks has returned to normal. Dealer's gamma shows that the risk of significant fluctuations in"
X Link 2024-06-12T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The impact of the hedging effect on the crypto market seems to be gradually increasing with the arrival of the semi-annual settlement. 🧐 Some possible evidence is as follows: Despite the pullback in the prices of BTC and ETH both have received strong support near the gamma peak on the downward path. However the resistance on the upward path also increases rapidly as the settlement day approaches. The positive gamma peak of BTC is at $64k and $68k and the positive gamma peak of ETH is at $3.4k and $3.7k which means that the price of BTC may consolidate around $64k-68k while the price of ETH"
X Link 2024-06-18T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As the official launch date of the spot ETH ETFs approaches and @Consensys announces that the SEC has ended its further investigation about ETH traders have adjusted their forward expectations for ETH's performance📈: The front-end term structure of the ETH/BTC exchange rate has shown partial contango. Although traders are still not optimistic about ETH's long-term performance it has become a consensus among traders that ETH will strengthen for several months after the spot ETFs are launched. The risk premium difference between BTC and ETH has converged from more than 200bps at the peak to"
X Link 2024-06-19T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Before the crypto witching day: weekly ahead Let's see what is happening and what will happen🤓 Currently overall market liquidity remains low and investors are not optimistic about future liquidity improvements Lots of investors lack confidence in future interest rate cuts The demand for safe-haven assets among investors has not waned but has instead increased Due to the updates on the Mt. Gox incident and semi-annually settlements safe-haven sentiment is dominating the market but the long-term expectations have not changed significantly More significant market fluctuations may occur in the"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. The speculative positions in 3-Month SOFR Futures have turned to net short and the open interests in 2-yr T-notes net short also hit a new record indicating that investors lack confidence in future interest rate cuts"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. Institutions remain optimistic about 4-5 rate cuts within the next [--] months. Still the expected magnitude of these cuts remains low and the market is likely to stay in a high-interest-rate environment for an extended period"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. The US bank lending rates have also remained high at 8.5% under high interest rates suppressing loan demand in the commercial and industrial sectors. Meanwhile the total amount of household deposits has not increased and investors have substantial investment demand which is favourable for the asset market"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4. However the prices of safe-haven assets like gold which rose earlier remain high and continue to show relatively high volatility. Additionally DXY has maintained a relatively high level since the beginning of [----] indicating that the demand for safe-haven assets among investors has not waned but has instead increased"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Therefore the liquidity in the crypto market is expected to remain constrained for a long time. In the short term due to the updates on Mt. Gox incident and semi-annual settlements safe-haven sentiment is dominating the market with a neutral to bearish outlook but long-term expectations have not changed significantly"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6. Significant market fluctuations may occur in the near term. Due to the decrease in the options/futures OI ratio the hedging activities of market makers have a significantly reduced impact on the market. Additionally if the support level at $61.5K is breached for BTC there is a higher downside risk and a lack of more support levels. Moreover after Jun [--] with the expiration of over 106k BTC options contracts and over 1.03m ETH options contracts the stabilizing effect from market makers on the crypto market will be further weakened potentially increasing market volatility"
X Link 2024-06-24T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Currently there is a large distribution of positive gamma at the $61K and $62K strikes which due to the market makers' hedging effects has stabilized BTC's price between these strikes. 🤓 Observing the changes in aggressors' options positions it is clear that their concerns about BTC's intraday downside risk are increasing while their expectations for an upward movement are diminishing.🤔"
X Link 2024-06-26T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"NDX just surpassed 20k. #BTC & #ETH will be the next.😎"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Crypto in Broad Markets: How Will BTC Perform This Week Some quick facts: Investors' preference for risk-free assets has increased reflected in the broader macro asset allocation. In comparison the price movements of risk assets are now more affected by hedging behaviours. The liquidity level in the crypto market is expected to remain low for a foreseeable period. If some "unexpected" things happen the probability of downside risk remains high.🧐 For more welcome to read the thread below"
X Link 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1. After the market opened on Jul [--] T-notes' yields rose rapidly. On the one hand the Fed used ON RRP to withdraw some liquidity from the market and the sale of treasuries pushed yields higher. At the same time due to the sharp decline in the yen/dollar exchange rate the Bank of Japan is also trying to stabilize Japanese government bond yields by selling U.S. treasuries and buying Japanese government bonds"
X Link 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. As the factors above drive up U.S. Treasury yields investors' preference for risk-free assets has also increased reflected in the broader macro asset allocation. The prices of safe-haven or risk-free assets such as gold silver and the DXY have collectively risen. The demand for gold from central banks worldwide is also climbing keeping gold prices at high levels driven by demand. In comparison the price movements of risk assets are now more affected by hedging behaviours"
X Link 2024-07-01T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. The Jun ADP data and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in below expectations increasing bond and money market investors' expectations for rate cuts. This caused the T-notes yield and the DXY to decline"
X Link 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. Due to the impact of the recent large-scale ON-RRP the front-month SOFR rates rose. However overall expectations for rate cuts have not changed significantly and market liquidity is unlikely to improve substantially"
X Link 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. In the crypto market the aggressors' open interest distribution of 7DTE and 14DTE BTC options reveals a divergence among investors regarding near-term BTC price changes. Apart from buying a large number of puts at the $60K strike for risk hedging aggressors generally believe that the potential for significant BTC price movement is limited and the extent of price declines remains controllable"
X Link 2024-07-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday the impact of macroeconomic data on the market may not be reflected until tomorrow. Last night the BTC experienced a significant drop fluctuating around the $57K-58K range. With the expiration of the Jul [--] options the gamma distribution across strike prices has changed considerably. There is a predominance of negative gamma around the 60K level and the market makers' hedging activities have accelerated the price decline. Additionally as the Jul [--] options expiration approaches the slight positive gamma at the current price levels will also turn"
X Link 2024-07-04T18:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. Due to the sharp price movements in BTC the implied volatility of front-month options has increased rapidly. However no significant changes have been observed in far-month options"
X Link 2024-07-04T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto in Broad Markets: How Will BTC Perform This Week Some quick facts: For the crypto market liquidity shortages remain a long-term issue unlikely to be fundamentally improved by future rate cuts. Investors remain optimistic about BTC's long-term performance while becoming increasingly pessimistic about its short-term performance. The risk of a substantial price drop may be alleviated. For more welcome to read the thread below🔽🔽🔽"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. An institution-conducted survey indicates a significant increase in expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts with many believing that policy rates will be substantially lowered. As a result precious metal prices have started to retreat while DXY continues to decline"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. According to the Sahm Rule if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by [----] percentage points or more relative to its low over the past [--] months the U.S. is in a recession. The current value is [----]. If the upward trend in the unemployment rate does not slow down it could indicate a substantial slowdown"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. However it is important to note that the current reduction in hiring or increase in layoffs by companies is not due to "poor demand" but "high costs." The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is still recovering and the increase in the unemployment rate is mainly due to supply-side changes rather than demand-side deterioration. Corporate hiring demand might partially recover if the Fed cuts rates quickly"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Since [----] the primary seller of treasuries in the interest rate market has been the Fed which has opted for QT by letting holdings mature without reinvestment. However the Fed's QT follows a predetermined pace. Banks also need to digest historical inventories and many have reclassified their portfolios into Held-to-Maturity (HTM) accounts to absorb unrealised losses slowly. Consequently there is limited room for significant increases in treasury holdings which also limits the potential for a substantial decline in interest rates in the future"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"6. Under the conditions above the market is expected to maintain high interest rates for the foreseeable future. For the crypto market liquidity shortages remain a long-term issue unlikely to be fundamentally improved by future rate cuts"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Mid-Week Watch: Different Gamma Distribution Different Movements In the current high-interest-rate environment asset liquidity preferences have led to some interesting divergences across various markets. Abstracts: Liquidity-sensitive assets such as precious metals small-cap stocks and BTC are facing significant resistance at higher levels but once their prices decline volatility can increase rapidly. For assets with higher volatility risks and liquidity sensitivity investors tend to seek downside protection and take profits during upward movements. Conversely investors have stable"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1. In the current high-interest-rate environment liquidity-sensitive assets such as precious metals and BTC exhibit similar GEX distributions: They face significant resistance at higher levels but once their prices decline volatility can increase rapidly"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. In comparison for large-cap and mega-cap stocks with good liquidity there is a concentration of positive gamma around ATM strikes causing both upward and downward price movements to encounter significant resistance resulting in a gradual overall price increase. On the other hand small-cap stocks exhibit a GEX distribution similar to other liquidity-sensitive assets: resistance to upward movements and a higher risk of downward volatility. @pgrenn"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. One possible reason is that in a high-interest-rate environment different asset liquidity patterns lead to varied investor behaviour patterns. For assets with higher volatility risks and liquidity sensitivity investors tend to seek downside protection and take profits during upward movements. Conversely investors have stable expectations for the returns and volatility of large-cap and mega-cap stocks which are reflected in the options market and form different GEX distributions. The different GEX patterns ultimately result in distinct price movement patterns and volatility levels due to"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Additionally the divergence in investors' sentiments between the front month and the far month has widened further. Recent macro events and weekly option deliveries are likely to significantly impact the gamma distribution further bringing additional risks"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6. For ETH the hedging behaviour of market makers is one of the main factors that has driven the price to stabilize around $3.1k. Investors' bullish sentiment has also improved as the price has steadily recovered. However before more positive news is released considering that ETH option market makers have already priced in a relatively high level of volatility which enhances the effect of market makers' hedging it is difficult for ETH prices to tramp over the gamma peak"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What is Altcoin and Altcoin Season Why has Altcoin Underperformed and Will Altcoin Season ever Come this cycle Altcoin season often referred to as #altseason" denotes a period when alternative #cryptocurrencies or #altcoins experience a surge in price and market dominance relative to #Bitcoin. Check out here 👇 https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-altcoin-season-and-why-has-altcoin-underperformed-this-cycle https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-altcoin-season-and-why-has-altcoin-underperformed-this-cycle"
X Link 2024-07-11T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2. U.S. inflation data has been below expectations for two consecutive months. According to the Feds tradition of looking at [--] months of data one more month of approximately 0.2% MoM core inflation data could formally trigger rate cuts. It now appears that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is higher as reflected in the SOFR"
X Link 2024-07-11T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. However in the first half of [----] U.S. Hourly Earnings growth is still rising. Given that high real interest rates have not reduced output the risk of secondary inflation after rate cuts has become an investor bet. Net short positions in two-year U.S. Treasury futures have risen to a record 2.16m contracts"
X Link 2024-07-11T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Mid-Week Watch: Beware of Potential Tail Risks Despite optimism about more rate cuts and great bull markets significant uncertainty remains regarding its actualization. Abstracts: Historical trends suggest that the 10-year treasury yield could spike following the GDP data release because of the potential reflation risk.🧐 The potential economic policies of the Trump administration the next possible US government are also affecting investors' expectations for long-term economic and market performance. Traders and market makers worry about tail risks from the FOMC meeting on Jul [--] and the"
X Link 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1. The upcoming ECB rate decision 2024q2 US GDP data and the July FOMC meeting have been significant events to watch in the following weeks. Although current US Treasury yields are declining historical trends suggest that the 10-year treasury yield could spike following the GDP data release because of the potential reflation risk. Additionally the prolonged yield curve inversion might come to an end"
X Link 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. The market currently forecasts a 2.5% GDP growth. However The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of [----] is 2.7% on Jul [--] up from 2.5% on Jul [--]. If growth exceeds expectations it would indicate solid economic resilience. This resilience suggests that previous market demand has not been entirely suppressed by high-interest rates potentially raising future inflation expectations and driving up long-term bond yields"
X Link 2024-07-17T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What is @ton_blockchain Leveraging Telegram's 900M Users. TON (The Open Network) is a Proof-of-Stake Layer [--] blockchain developed by the @telegram team and has become a community-driven ecosystem led by the #TON Foundation. Full insights here 👇 https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-ton-blockchain-leveraging-telegram-s-900m-users https://blofin.com/academy/blofin-courses/what-is-ton-blockchain-leveraging-telegram-s-900m-users"
X Link 2024-07-17T23:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto in Broad Markets: Higher Risks Some quick facts: Some institutions remind investors of a recession's potential risk after rate cuts. Be cautious about future performance in the high-risk equity market especially for tech stocks.🧐 For BTC and ETH concerns about short to medium-term tail risks are increasing.🧐 Affected by the rising market uncertainty level the term structure of BTC options remains relatively flat with a significant negative gamma range implying higher price fluctuation risks.🧐 For more welcome to read the thread below🔽🔽🔽"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. This week let's start with a discussion of macroeconomics. According to Goldman Sachs global macroeconomic data in 2024q2 was weaker than expected. Led by the US and EU a global rate-cut cycle may soon begin. While some believe a rate cut in Jul is not impossible the market does not have high expectations. Although the market is preparing for a rate cut in Sept it should also be ready for the "out of expected" Jul rate cut. Therefore the 2024q2 GDP data has become essential and may significantly impact market expectations"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. According to @BofA_Business's Global Fund Manager Survey 46% of investors believe the US will not experience a recession in the next [--] months and only 8% think the US will enter a recession in 2024h2. However BCA holds a more pessimistic view suggesting that recessions typically begin shortly after the Fed starts cutting rates with the Beveridge curve reaching a turning point. BCA predicts the US economy will enter a recession in late [----] or 2025"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. Historical precedents include the Fed beginning to cut rates [--] months before the [----] recession in Jun [----] [--] months before the Internet bubble burst in Jan [----] and four months before the Great Recession in Sept [----]. By the time Lehman Brothers collapsed the Fed had already cut rates by [---] bps. While we acknowledge the possibility of a recession following rate cuts the likelihood is not high. Nevertheless we should be cautious about future performance in the high-risk equity market especially for tech stocks"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4. Back to the crypto market: Although investors' concerns about long-term market risks are slightly easing for BTC concerns about short- to medium-term tail risks are increasing. In contrast for ETH worries about tail risks in both the short and long term are rising. Fortunately investors are more optimistic about the long-term market outlook and the short- to medium-term sentiment remains relatively positive"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. The successful launch of the ETH ETFs has reduced market uncertainty and pushed IVs down especially for intraday and weekly options. As a result the term structure of ETH options has steepened again. As the beginning of a new round of asset allocation period investors are displaying optimism for both the short and long-term performance of ETH price"
X Link 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. Similarly for BTC there is significant negative dealers' gamma around the ATM strike prices leading to intense price fluctuations within the negative gamma range without a clear upward trend. Notably the most crucial contribution to gamma currently comes from the expiring Jul [--] options. After these options expire the gamma distribution will change a lot and the price movement may change more. With the upcoming PCE data release and FOMC meeting the level of market uncertainty will remain high in the following days"
X Link 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4. It must be admitted that potential fat-tail risks are intensifying. BTC's relative tail risk pricing is higher than that of ETH and has reached its highest level since May. After the spot ETH ETFs were released ETH's tail risk pricing decreased but BTC's increased. One possible reason is that in addition to event risks brought by ETH ETFs the Nashville Bitcoin conference and macro risks other "unknown but possible incident risks" are priced into the market. With changes in the US political landscape investors are seemingly more concerned about the impact of political factors on the"
X Link 2024-07-23T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The power of gamma"
X Link 2024-07-24T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tips: American options have more dramatic gamma variations than vanilla options which means that market makers hedging behaviour will be more drastic and amplify market volatility when they hold a full hand of negative gamma.😈 https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/35163/american-options-relation-between-greeks https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/35163/american-options-relation-between-greeks"
X Link 2024-07-24T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Monthly Settlement: 0DTE & Overhedge Abstracts: Market makers' overhedging for 0DTE options is the main reason for the plunge in BTC and ETH. 🧐 Investors remain optimistic about BTC's short- and medium-term price trends.🥰 The current price supports for BTC and ETH are primarily contributed by the 0DTE options expiring on Jul [--] meaning the uncertainty in the crypto market may be higher tomorrow.🧐 For more welcome to read our latest analysis below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Around [--] a.m. HKT&SGT on July [--] due to the continuous selling after the launch of the spot ETH ETFs market makers realized that they had accumulated too many overnight risky positions. Considering the approaching monthly settlement market makers overhedged most of their 0DTE options positions within 10-15 minutes to deal with the cumulated excess delta exposure. Driven by a large number of market sell orders the prices of BTC and ETH plunged instantly"
X Link 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. Investors' concerns about BTC's short-term risks are increasing rapidly while expectations for medium- and long-term risks are declining. The monthly settlement the upcoming PCE data and the Bitcoin Conference may have jointly driven the increase in short-term tail risk pricing. Fortunately investors remain optimistic about BTC's short- and medium-term price trends"
X Link 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. Another risk is that positive gamma from the 0DTE options currently supports BTC's $64k support level. After these options expire tomorrow there is a substantial price fluctuation risk with insufficient gamma support and resistance strikes to prevent further movement"
X Link 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4. For ETH investors' expectations for medium- to long-term tail risks have dropped significantly. However investors have also lowered their bullish expectations for ETH's performance which is common at the beginning of an asset allocation period. It is worth noting that similar to BTC ETH's current price support and resistance also mainly come from the 0DTE option expiring on July [--]. Therefore the uncertainty level in the crypto market tomorrow may be higher"
X Link 2024-07-25T18:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3. The GEX data reveals a substantial negative gamma between $65k and $70k exacerbating price volatility. This negative gamma is primarily contributed by options expiring on Aug [--] which dominate the BTC options market. As the expiration date approaches market price fluctuations may increase necessitating heightened risk management in the coming days"
X Link 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4. It must be admitted that negative gamma does not only dominate the crypto market. In the US stock market SPY and QQQ have experienced significant declines caused by negative gamma hedging and the high volatility risk has made NVDA's front-month implied volatility level significantly surpass that of cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Negative gamma means greater potential volatility and any price changes caused by good or bad news may be substantially amplified due to market makers' hedging behaviour"
X Link 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5. Interestingly GLD representing gold and IWM representing small-cap stocks did not fall and rose slightly. Although risk aversion is one of the factors affecting the performance of gold prices it must be admitted that the hedging behaviour of market makers has stabilized the price trend thanks to positive gamma which also happened in the price of ETH. Let us witness how the global market will move next"
X Link 2024-07-30T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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X Link 2024-07-30T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. In the crypto market traders have already priced in the end of the events for BTC and ETH options. Two days ago traders even started selling volatility and the pricing of the FOMC event in Forward IVs has disappeared"
X Link 2024-07-31T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. However from the perspective of skewness crypto investors' expectations are still relatively positive. Due to the asset allocation period investors are still conservative about ETH's performance in Aug. Still the mediumand long-term bullish sentiment remains robust and slightly higher than that of BTC. In contrast investors' bullish views on BTC remain consistent from the short to the long term with more negative gamma to BTC and more upside potential"
X Link 2024-07-31T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It appears that the interbank market is also pricing in more rate cuts. Unlike Fed Fund Futures traders the SR3 traders are pricing in an additional rate cut that could occur in Oct [----] rather than a 50bps cut in Sep [----]. [--] bp cut in September Markets are currently pricing a 20% probability on that outcome according to CME #FedWatch. https://t.co/fPlRItPqfv [--] bp cut in September Markets are currently pricing a 20% probability on that outcome according to CME #FedWatch. https://t.co/fPlRItPqfv"
X Link 2024-08-01T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto in Broad Markets: Plunge Abstracts: The market maker's hedging effect on support and resistance levels has nearly failed resulting in a "random walk" market.🥲 Monitoring the magnitude and speed of rate gap changes between the Fed and BoJ is crucial.🧐 Crypto options traders may believe the impact of unwinding carry trade will not last long. However it must be affirmed that the price fluctuation is not over yet; be cautious when catching a falling knife.🧐 For more welcome to read our threads below👇👇👇"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1. Today both the equity and crypto markets experienced significant volatility. The US equity market has a substantial buildup of negative gamma. In contrast for BTC the market maker's hedging effect on support and resistance levels has nearly failed resulting in a "random walk" market where risk control becomes even more critical"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. The bond and FX markets indicate that the fundamental impact of the recent BoJ rate hike is gradually clearing. As a result even the Japanese equity index the Nikkei225 has shown some recovery after the historical plunge. The yield curve inversion in US Treasuries is also ending progressively"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. The primary concern should be whether the current market risks have been fully priced in and what expectations should be held for the short to medium term. Although slightly delayed the BoJ's rate hike was anticipated. The next step is to observe the BoJ's future actions. The BoJ may lack sufficient cash reserves to continue intervening through the bond market and might opt for rapid rate hikes to narrow the interest rate gap with the Fed bringing the yen to a more reasonable level. Therefore monitoring the magnitude and speed of rate gap changes between the Fed and BoJ is crucial"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4. Fortunately the likelihood of carry trade unwind triggering a complete turnaround in the US financial cycle is low as the fundamental employment and economic data do not support an impending recession. However the end of the carry trade still affects investor sentiment and bearish expectations in the short and medium term are spreading across multiple markets. If the Fed-BoJ interest rate gap narrows rapidly asset prices will likely fall further"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2. According to JPMorgan's calculations As of Aug [--] 65% of short yen positions have been covered with adjustments in net yen futures positions seemingly outpacing spot movements. The short-covering could potentially reach 60-80%"
X Link 2024-08-07T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Interestingly during recent declines mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks which suggests that the significant drops in the US equity market were more due to liquidity withdrawals than fundamental weaknesses which remain manageable. This is one reason investors are relatively optimistic about the mediumand long-term expectations for most assets"
X Link 2024-08-07T20:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1. After a series of market fluctuations investors' panic has significantly calmed down broadly aligning their expectations regarding future rate cuts and diminishing speculative sentiment. However today's weaker-than-expected PPI data has reignited better expectations of rate cuts leading to a rally in the US equity market. Despite this the interest rate market's reaction remained within the bounds of existing expectations indicating that investors are cautiously optimistic but not overly reactive"
X Link 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2. BofA predicts that the outflows from the equity market triggered by the early August market turbulence may persist for four to six weeks consistent with our previous expectations. Given the unwinding of carry trades and the gradual decline in the use of alternative liquidity tools a short-term consolidation in risky asset markets is inevitable"
X Link 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4. It must be pointed out that concerns about a hard landing persist mainly due to potential weaknesses in the labour market. Even temporary employment softness could signal more severe trends ahead such as direct layoffs and an increase in permanent unemployment. Therefore once the latest CPI data shows that inflation has further eased interest rate cuts will have to be put on the agenda to minimize the possibility of a "hard landing""
X Link 2024-08-13T22:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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