# ![@BearstoneWriter Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1904203624093515776.png) @BearstoneWriter Bearstone

Bearstone posts on X about $four, $pypl, bitcoin, business the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1904203624093515776/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1904203624093515776/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -52%
- [--] Month [-----] -94%
- [--] Months [-------] +868%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1904203624093515776/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1904203624093515776/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -67%
- [--] Month [--] -64%
- [--] Months [--] +95%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1904203624093515776/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1904203624093515776/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] no change
- [--] Month [-----] +31%
- [--] Months [-----] +1,377%

### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1904203624093515776/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1904203624093515776/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [products](/list/products) 

**Social topic influence**
[$four](/topic/$four), [$pypl](/topic/$pypl), [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [business](/topic/business), [in the](/topic/in-the), [belong](/topic/belong), [charlie](/topic/charlie), [$moh](/topic/$moh), [stablecoins](/topic/stablecoins), [deep](/topic/deep)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@geigercapital](/creator/undefined) [@peterschiff](/creator/undefined) [@michaeljburry](/creator/undefined) [@stockmarketnerd](/creator/undefined) [@lynaldencontact](/creator/undefined) [@secscottbessent](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@adambliv](/creator/undefined) [@bearstone2023notep182529168r4e3bxfutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction](/creator/undefined) [@bearstone2023notep183187758r4e3bxfutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction](/creator/undefined) [@bearstone2023notec200211832r4e3bxfutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction](/creator/undefined) [@bearstone2023notec202982207r4e3bxfutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction](/creator/undefined) [@bearstone2023notep186758796r4e3bxfutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction](/creator/undefined) [@ericbalchunas](/creator/undefined) [@ritholtz](/creator/undefined) [@sullycnbc](/creator/undefined) [@cnnrjcbsn](/creator/undefined) [@7skiestech](/creator/undefined) [@whattheytookk](/creator/undefined) [@cramertracker](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [Wall Street Memes (WSM)](/topic/$wsm) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)](/topic/$siri) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A (STZ)](/topic/$stz) [H&R Block, Inc. (HRB)](/topic/$hrb) [Paramount Global (PARA)](/topic/paramount-global) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Centene Corp (CNC)](/topic/$cnc) [Humana Inc (HUM)](/topic/$hum) [Cigna Corp (CI)](/topic/$ci)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Why is the Trump administration slapping tariffs on China and others Its not just about protecting American industrytheres a deeper reason that gets overlooked. Currency manipulation. Let me explain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1905419243782635969)  2025-03-28T00:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Countries like China and Germany are suspected of artificially weakening their currencies. Why To make their exports cheaper and imports more expensive. This leads to persistent trade surplusesthey sell more than they buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1905419245673947286)  2025-03-28T00:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Bitcoin isnt a safe haven like goldits not redeemable. When the tide turns even the most bullish holders will panic sell. Thats human nature. Like the Hydra Bitcoin grows two heads for every one that falls. But Id still rather sit in gold let the market crash then buy cheap cash-flowing businesses. Cryptos just too speculative for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1905721706490302636)  2025-03-28T20:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Exactlywhen you subsidize borrowing youre not just helping buyers youre inflating the asset. Same thing happened with college tuition: make loans cheaper and schools raise prices. If Trump applies that logic to auto loans U.S. automakers might quietly raise sticker prices knowing the tax code is doing the heavy lifting. Feels good short termbut it distorts the market and sticks consumers with the bill long run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1905812196262563887)  2025-03-29T02:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"SaaS margins are dying. AI is squeezing software. Capital is rotating. The real bottleneck Energy. And the best AI-era energy play is hiding in plain sight: $OXY. Cheap oil Carbon capture optionality Buffett-backed 10% FCF yield This is your commodity compounder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1906451640007188587)  2025-03-30T21:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital If everyone just buys the S&P [---] it will become a bubble. Prices rise not because businesses are better but because flows demand it. Fundamentals get ignored. Passive investing worksuntil too many people stop thinking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1906455624591802450)  2025-03-30T21:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@EricBalchunas @Ritholtz The dollar has lost 96% of its value over [---] years sounds scary But that just means 3.9% annual inflation. Show me a country that did better over a century. (Spoiler: maybe Switzerland. Thats it.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1906484161709547613)  2025-03-30T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@SullyCNBC Economic uncertainty and potential margin compression from AI put techespecially SaaS companiesin a precarious spot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1906688630141198610)  2025-03-31T12:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Buffett Bet on Paramounts Survival. Shari Redstones Voting Shares Buried Him. Warren Buffett loves a bargaina company on the operating table with a fixable problem. In [----] Paramount Global fit the bill. Reeling from the streaming wars writer and actor strikes and a shaky balance sheet it still had a goldmine of IP: Top Gun Star Trek Yellowstone. Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway scooped up a $2.6 billion stake betting Paramount could survive and thrive. The downside seemed cushionedgreat content doesnt go to zero right Wrong. By [----] the stock crashed trading halted and Buffett dumped it at a loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1907110049962397786)  2025-04-01T16:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@cnnrjcbsn @Geiger_Capital Hard to argue with the logic. Maybe Bessent shouldve been more inclusive. Still its no surprise the Russell [----] dropped especially when it had earnings yields lower than a T-bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1907616290451128749)  2025-04-03T02:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@7SkiesTech Thanks I agreethere could still be a relief rally. Ive had my eye on a few companies too but I wanted to keep some liquidity on hand given all the uncertainty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1907821302909411723)  2025-04-03T15:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@WhatTheyTookk @Geiger_Capital We have two oceans friendly neighbors food energy land and innovation. Our system is messy but resilient. History favors geography and adaptabilitynot ideological purity. Betting against America has always been a losing trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1909743243102667218)  2025-04-08T23:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Isnt it wild that you cant actually own a Chinese company You buy a Cayman Islands shell (a VIE) with a contract promising a cut of the profits from a company you dont own. Totally normal. Oh yeah and its not technically legal in China but theyre being chill about it for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1909780487201067068)  2025-04-09T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CramerTracker Interesting. I thought they werent interested in what was happening on Wall Street"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1909967397592711266)  2025-04-09T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The path was uncertain in the past too. But we figured it out - eventually. Revolution with no guarantee of victory Civil War that nearly tore us apart The Great Depression WWII after Pearl Harbor 9/11 and its aftermath Were living through history again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1910015870253859011)  2025-04-09T17:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StockMarketNerd I think $SIRI is an underrated bet. Its got a loyal customer base likely good for at least a decade of steady cash flows and its trading at a forward FCF yield north of 20%. Plus it benefits from John Malones savvy capital allocation and isnt exposed to tariff risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1910354562252222562)  2025-04-10T15:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@StockMarketNerd $SIRI has long-term challenges but I think itll scoop up great podcast IP as the industry matures. Podcast biz models will evolve - just like cable did. Malone built a media empire once. Cable Cowboy is a must-read if this interest you: https://amzn.to/3xl0wSl https://amzn.to/3xl0wSl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1910355665404436939)  2025-04-10T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@LynAldenContact Bonds screaming. Budget soaring. The Fed wont have a choice. QE returns and with it inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1910492485962379752)  2025-04-11T00:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SmotWicket @LynAldenContact Buffetts been buying oil - $OXY. Could be a smart bet. Oil prices might get temporarily crushed if the trade war escalates but long-term Youre likely to benefit from both inflation and todays depressed prices - as long as your oil stocks survive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1910497309986639957)  2025-04-11T00:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Cernovich Ha I was told I had ADHD when I was younger. I can sit and play a video game for [--] hours straight dig through financial statements all day and read a good book cover to cover all with pure focus. I just have [--] attention for things Im not passionate about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1912300008365228045)  2025-04-16T00:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SecScottBessent @POTUS @realDonaldTrump Rolling out the red carpet for Putin while hes actively attacking one of our allies is beyond disgraceful. No ceasefire no concessions no results. Just empty optics and a PR win for Moscow. Disgusting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1957427848471314737)  2025-08-18T13:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@maneco1964 @SecScottBessent @grok Is this guy confused on how currencys work Does he think currency is a store of value rather than a medium of exchange"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1957617188527116591)  2025-08-19T01:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@vested_opinions @jasonscheer Oh Jesus give the ball to the kid. Whats wrong with people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1964278519594103289)  2025-09-06T10:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterSchiff Its so funny that gold people hate bitcoin so much as if it has anything to do with them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981308799320313909)  2025-10-23T10:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterSchiff If Bitcoin dropped 6% in a day Peter would be talking so much shit lol. Gold drops 6% and hes still slanting the story in his favor. I have to commend your sales skills Peter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981309668333879534)  2025-10-23T10:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdamBLiv Its so stupid having your own opinion especially when its against Bitcoin to a Bitcoiner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981366312728186984)  2025-10-23T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdamBLiv Bitcoin: This town aint big enough for the both of us. Gold: Son Ive been shining since the Pharaohs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981390391686602850)  2025-10-23T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Bitcoin_Teddy Errr I dont think you want this to be your poster boy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981445012127961521)  2025-10-23T19:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WhaleInsider @grok what is JP Morgans track record at predicting commodity prices [--] year into the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1981520791150759955)  2025-10-24T00:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterSchiff Breaking news: Bitcoin may or may not recover from its dip"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1989495351854961145)  2025-11-15T00:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$MOH -50% $CNC -35% $UNH -45% Medicaid insurers are getting crushed. I broke down what went wrong and whether this is value or value trap. https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/medicaid-insurers-when-an-industryr=4e3bxf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/medicaid-insurers-when-an-industryr=4e3bxf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1994847931623772168)  2025-11-29T19:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The [----] disaster was simple: three segments blew up simultaneously. Marketplace MCR: 79% expected mid-90s actual (-$3-4 of EPS) Medicaid MCR: 89.9% expected 91.5% actual (-$3-4 of EPS) Medicare: modest profit break-even (-$1 of EPS) That's explains the missing $10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1995912206106431605)  2025-12-02T17:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Imagine youre at the front desk of a 400-room resort at [--] p.m. on a Friday. The line is ten guests deep a family of four just flew in from London the kids are crying and the dad is tapping his Amex on the marble counter. Hidden in that chaos is a $500000 reason Shift4 $FOUR almost never loses a hotel customer. Behind the counter the clerkcall her Sarahis playing whack-a-mole with software. Shes typing the card number into the front desk system (Oracle Opera circa 1998). Then shes swiveling to a second screen so the parking system can tie your room key to the garage gate. Then shes alt-tabbing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1996631374313275517)  2025-12-04T17:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Were going deep on Shift4 $FOUR but were not starting with the valuation. Before we model the returns we have to understand the machine. As intelligent analysts we need to know the history: how management executed in the past how they anticipated industry shifts before competitors did and why the business looks the way it does today. You cant judge the next strategic decision if you only know the numbers. You need to know the evolution. Ill be dropping the rest of this series steadily on Tuesdays and Thursdays. We will get to the financials and the investment thesis but were going to do it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1997035912241316340)  2025-12-05T20:10Z [---] followers, 42.1K engagements


"Shift4 $FOUR knew a payments war was coming. Most processors fought on price. Isaacman went the other way: he turned the merchant into a fortress. He didnt just dig a moat he filled it with alligators and put archers on the walls. In practice those alligators and archers were POS and gateway systems that fused the workflow the data and the rails into one stack. Thats how Shift4 made processing a sticky high-ROIC business instead of a commodity. Part [--] of the Shift4 series: The Gateway to Empire How Harbortouch Became a Payments Powerhouse is now live."  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1998415650096628119)  2025-12-09T15:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Part [--] is now live. The Shift Story Part 2: The Gateway to Empire How Harbortouch Became a Payments Powerhouse We go from free terminals to a vertically integrated payments stack. How Isaacman turned control of the workflow into control of the merchant. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181054937r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181054937r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1998419648606322745)  2025-12-09T15:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"During the dot-com crash capital rotated hard into defensive healthcare. $UNH +214% $HUM +53% while the S&P fell 47%. Todays macro backdrop (AI uncertainty rates policy) + valuations suggest we may be replaying that script. Cigna stumbled on execution. But Humana and United executed flawlesslyand got rewarded. Interestingly managed care names like $MOH are trading at potentially [--] on the dollar for the patient investor right now. History doesnt repeat but it rhymes. MCO Industry Deep Dive: Molina Investment Analysis:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1998779867421163916)  2025-12-10T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@goldie93023 I think Aetna will rebound from its underwriting issues but I havent dug deep enough into CVSs other divisions pharmacy PBM Oak Street to know if those businesses help or hinder overall growth. CVS is complex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1998814394608968032)  2025-12-10T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Shift4 is basically Coca-Cola for payments. Coca-Cola spent decades scooping up brands and their distribution and running them through one global system. $FOUR is rolling up POS loyalty and gateways then pushing all that merchant volume through its own rails. Part [--] of The Shift4 Story breaks down that roll-up engine. 👇 https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181263052r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181263052r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999131216449015811)  2025-12-11T14:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin as a bank is genius. Banks charge 6-10% on remittances because they have to pre-fund rupee accounts sitting idle in India earning 0-1% when that same capital could yield 4-5% in US bonds. Multiply that across hundreds of currency pairs and billions of dollarssomeone has to pay for it. UMA/Lightning eliminates this. Bitcoin settles in seconds so no pre-funding required. No nostro accounts. No opportunity cost. Fee drops from 6-10% to 1.5%. You never touch crypto. The recipient never touches crypto. Bitcoin is just the settlement layer doing what correspondent banks used to doexcept"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999189501919322263)  2025-12-11T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@sytaylor If LLMs become the dominant way people shop payment processors have to integrate to stay competitive. But does that integration layer itself lose money Could agentic commerce be a margin compressor not a new revenue stream"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999196622605975936)  2025-12-11T19:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In my Shift4 $FOUR Substack series one big theme is that pure payment processing isnt enough. Shift4 saw they had to own the software layersPOS gateway and vertical softwareto build a moat around the underlying payments. Now AI is adding a new layer. ChatGPT partnering with Stripe is an early example: an AI agent can find a lighted 5point star for my Christmas tree on Etsy and buy it for you without you ever visiting Etsy. Thats what people mean by agentic commerce. I can easily imagine a world where Shift4 Adyen Stripe etc. all need to be integrated into this agentic layer so their merchants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999204752492548434)  2025-12-11T19:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"US banks hold USD abroad earning zero yield while those dollars could earn 4%+ in Treasury reserves. The fee burden they pass to customers reflects this lost opportunity cost. Bitcoin Lightning bypasses the entire problem no idle balance risk instant settlement minimal fees. Jamie Dimon is a banking genius. He sees the value in this use case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999209205010465262)  2025-12-11T20:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"thinking about stablecoins. If they become efficient enough that settlement just lives in the layer does the issuer eventually have incentive to break from the USD peg (USD broke from gold when it became inconvenient. same logic) not saying it happens. just wondering if the game theory works out that way. @circle @paxosglobal @coinbase"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1999674366678704323)  2025-12-13T02:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Great businesses and great investors eventually realize that going global is inevitable. Shift4 $FOUR reached that point not long after its IPO. But as enticing as global expansion was they werent blind to the domestic stadium opportunity right under their nose. Part [--] is now live. Hope you enjoy it. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181680094r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-181680094r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2000953519193440498)  2025-12-16T15:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Shift4s $FOUR real strategy: Well just buy them instead Part [--] now live: https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-acquisition-playbookr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-acquisition-playbookr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2002543486416138413)  2025-12-21T00:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-four-valuation-cash-flow-debt-analysisr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-four-valuation-cash-flow-debt-analysisr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2003518176748081550)  2025-12-23T17:28Z [----] followers, 70.4K engagements


"PayPal $PYPL and other stablecoin issuers have a deceptively simple model: receive USD at 0% park it in Tbills at 4% and issue stablecoins against the float. That trade is unacceptable to underwrite if you dont understand the history of credit cards ACH and wires that built todays payment rails. In my latest piece I tell the story of how Visa and Mastercard emerged and how they are a quiet tax on commerce. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-182529168r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004299187253661750)  2025-12-25T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One final note on Shift4 $FOUR before I move on to the next company. I recently saw someone claim that Shift4s acquisition playbook has been [--] + [--] = [--]. That was the entire argument no evidence just assertion. Others have echoed that the companys organic growth potential is obvious again without quantification. Having feelings about a stock is not the same as having conviction in one. As discussed in this analysis there are material questions around how Shift4 funds growth and what portion of that growth is truly organic and the cash flow statement shows that the current playbook still relies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004612744360673513)  2025-12-26T17:58Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements


"@devineni6 I think you meant marketplace for the 79% vs 90% metric. Medicaid is a far larger percentage of $MOH business and it operates on thinner more predictable margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2005329472350769447)  2025-12-28T17:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@michaeljburry just released his thesis on Molina $MOH. I published my deep dive on this a month ago based on the filings and it's validating to see our core theses align. He brings up a few brilliant angles I hadn't considered (unsurprisingly) but the valuation case remains similar. A rare deep value play without the headache of a turnaround or accounting shenanigans. https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/cracking-open-molinar=4e3bxf https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/cracking-open-molinar=4e3bxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2006003093071175951)  2025-12-30T14:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"There is one important caveat to this. $WISE does an excellent job of eliminating FX fees but once you convert a stablecoin back to a local currency youre hit with those charges. I predict however that a liquid market will emerge to exchange one stablecoin currency for another before taking funds off the rails. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006023336292229188 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006023336292229188"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2006023336292229188)  2025-12-30T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wise is a great company and Im not bearish on it. It should have a long runway ahead. I mention in the article that stablecoins are the fastest cheapest money transfers as long as they stay on their rails. Once you move back onto the traditional banking system you hit the same friction and expenses. For stablecoins to actually work at scale youd need user-friendly liquid exchanges to swap stablecoin currencies before moving off-chain plus wallets that let you earn yield on stablecoins. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006069269730119795 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006069269730119795"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2006069269730119795)  2025-12-30T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Next week I will be rolling out a new series on PayPal $PYPL. It will be structurally different from the Shift4 series. The Shift4 analysis focused heavily on understanding the payments industry from a historical perspective. I initially considered taking the same approach for PayPal; however after extensive research I've determined that this story is fundamentally different. It requires seeing into the future to make a compelling investment case. What makes PayPal's situation unique is that the answer to questions like "will the branded PayPal button survive" cannot be derived from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2006071882399809829)  2025-12-30T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"PayPal $PYPL has [--] core businesses. The biggest is its branded wallet which drives 2/3 of profits. Thats where my deep dive starts.👇 https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183187758r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183187758r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2008569125220872301)  2026-01-06T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PYPL not showing a breakdown of branded and unbranded numbers is concerning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2008744225756848632)  2026-01-07T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I like to see @michaeljburry has the similar perspective on $FOUR as me. We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://t.co/hnXuLCKSUl We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://t.co/hnXuLCKSUl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2010881680282980370)  2026-01-13T01:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here is my final opinion on the puzzle that is PayPal $PYPL 👇 https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/paypal-ovas-why-value-added-services-arent-enoughr=4e3bxf https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/paypal-ovas-why-value-added-services-arent-enoughr=4e3bxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011458932922028516)  2026-01-14T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"New piece: Cracking Open Molina Healthcare $MOH is trading at $145. My analysis suggests normalized earnings support $350-400+. That's buying a dollar for [--] centsif you can wait. Here's what actually went wrong in [----] and why the recovery is mechanical not mysterious 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/1995911792355131753)  2025-12-02T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This article is primarily focused on analyzing the unit economics of each hectoliter of beer brewing capacity at Constellation Brands $STZ. It outlines the methodology in detail and presents my base-case assumptions for maintenance capex. However I encourage investors to adjust the numbers based on whether they prefer a more conservative or optimistic outlook. I hope you enjoy the read https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-200211832r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-200211832r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011835373131829528)  2026-01-15T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@The_Pro_Invest The craziest part is it was on Joel Greenblatts Magic Formula screener - there for all to see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2013318639013838884)  2026-01-19T18:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The last part of my Constellation Brands series went out yesterday. In it I examine whether the recent downturn is structural or cyclical and then lay out a base case range of what STZ could be worth in a decade. I hope you enjoy reading it. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-202982207r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-202982207r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014038751048040934)  2026-01-21T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"WilliamsSonoma $WSM is live. This one is a single deep dive on why WilliamsSonoma is operationally one of the best - if not the best - furniture retailers in the business today. I walk through how their data and omnichannel distribution actually work in practice and why that shows up in their margins. Ill probably come back to this name over time to add more work or look at the stocks history but for now this is a standalone piece. Next week theres a little surprise coming on Tuesday. On Thursday were circling back to another fintech name: Wise. Looking forward to hearing what you think and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014465248237907970)  2026-01-22T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I bought Williams-Sonoma $WSM about two years ago. Its financials were incredible there was very little downside to the investment and I'm a big fan of Pottery Barn so I pulled the trigger. It has nearly tripled since. Interestingly I didn't see any major investors buying it or hear anyone talking about it. I think this stock will periodically trade down in housing cycles. So we're going to analyze it so everyone is prepared for the next dip. The first article drops on my Substack on Thursday. Looking forward to discussing it with you all. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013311068655792338"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2013311068655792338)  2026-01-19T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"H&R Block $HRB reports earnings today with the stock near 52-week lows. Heres a look at why its trading down and what I think: https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-186758796r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-186758796r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2018750497792962798)  2026-02-03T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I don't post often on X but when I do it's usually to share my latest Substack research. I find nuanced investment analysis deserves more than [---] characters. Deep dives on company fundamentals: https://substack.com/@bearstone2023 https://substack.com/@bearstone2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2012186894030012540)  2026-01-16T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When Gotham is on fire and you see the Bat Signal. 🦇 Molina Healthcare: Ghosts of GEICO Past "In [----] however GEICO started selling auto insurance to the public. With almost no actuarial experience GEICOs pricing was a guess and turned out to be too low. A frustratingly common problem in the insurance industry. This poorly https://t.co/N3iy6uU1AS Molina Healthcare: Ghosts of GEICO Past "In [----] however GEICO started selling auto insurance to the public. With almost no actuarial experience GEICOs pricing was a guess and turned out to be too low. A frustratingly common problem in the insurance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019614905196822554)  2026-02-06T03:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Molina Healthcare: Ghosts of GEICO Past "In [----] however GEICO started selling auto insurance to the public. With almost no actuarial experience GEICOs pricing was a guess and turned out to be too low. A frustratingly common problem in the insurance industry. This poorly informed underwriting dove-tailed with the high inflation environment and a new law forcing GEICO to take on high-risk drivers. The perfect storm sank GEICO in [----] and into [----] and ultimately provided the opportunity for Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway to swoop in. Buffett likes to say he bought GEICO three times in [----] as a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019612022397079995)  2026-02-06T03:20Z 1.7M followers, 487.2K engagements


"H&R Block $HRB reports earnings today with the stock near 52-week lows. Heres a look at why its trading down and what I think: https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-186758796r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-186758796r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BearstoneWriter/status/2018750497792962798)  2026-02-03T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"WilliamsSonoma $WSM is live. This one is a single deep dive on why WilliamsSonoma is operationally one of the best - if not the best - furniture retailers in the business today. I walk through how their data and omnichannel distribution actually work in practice and why that shows up in their margins. Ill probably come back to this name over time to add more work or look at the stocks history but for now this is a standalone piece. Next week theres a little surprise coming on Tuesday. On Thursday were circling back to another fintech name: Wise. Looking forward to hearing what you think and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014465248237907970)  2026-01-22T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The last part of my Constellation Brands series went out yesterday. In it I examine whether the recent downturn is structural or cyclical and then lay out a base case range of what STZ could be worth in a decade. I hope you enjoy reading it. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-202982207r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-202982207r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014038751048040934)  2026-01-21T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I bought Williams-Sonoma $WSM about two years ago. Its financials were incredible there was very little downside to the investment and I'm a big fan of Pottery Barn so I pulled the trigger. It has nearly tripled since. Interestingly I didn't see any major investors buying it or hear anyone talking about it. I think this stock will periodically trade down in housing cycles. So we're going to analyze it so everyone is prepared for the next dip. The first article drops on my Substack on Thursday. Looking forward to discussing it with you all. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013311068655792338"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2013311068655792338)  2026-01-19T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Great read. Thanks for the endorsement to my Substack channel Dr. Burry 🙏 New post. The Payments Giants: FEE FI FOUR Umm The attraction for most investors is that the payments business at scale intuitively is a moneymaker. A toll bridge on all the payments happening in some section of the world or economy with the toll so small no one that pays it https://t.co/KFusHYyFIX New post. The Payments Giants: FEE FI FOUR Umm The attraction for most investors is that the payments business at scale intuitively is a moneymaker. A toll bridge on all the payments happening in some section of the world or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2012185828722938133)  2026-01-16T15:31Z [----] followers, 61.8K engagements


"New post. The Payments Giants: FEE FI FOUR Umm The attraction for most investors is that the payments business at scale intuitively is a moneymaker. A toll bridge on all the payments happening in some section of the world or economy with the toll so small no one that pays it worries about it. This should work as long as the toll bridge can keep other bridges from being built in that particular section. The difference between one toll bridge and two on any one section of river is night and day. So most try to dominate some part of the river but barriers to entry are not what they once were."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011881092433736147)  2026-01-15T19:20Z 1.7M followers, 486.3K engagements


"This article is primarily focused on analyzing the unit economics of each hectoliter of beer brewing capacity at Constellation Brands $STZ. It outlines the methodology in detail and presents my base-case assumptions for maintenance capex. However I encourage investors to adjust the numbers based on whether they prefer a more conservative or optimistic outlook. I hope you enjoy the read https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-200211832r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/c-200211832r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011835373131829528)  2026-01-15T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here is my final opinion on the puzzle that is PayPal $PYPL 👇 https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/paypal-ovas-why-value-added-services-arent-enoughr=4e3bxf https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/paypal-ovas-why-value-added-services-arent-enoughr=4e3bxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011458932922028516)  2026-01-14T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I like to see @michaeljburry has the similar perspective on $FOUR as me. We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://t.co/hnXuLCKSUl We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://t.co/hnXuLCKSUl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2010881680282980370)  2026-01-13T01:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We have three baskets for investing: yes no and too hard to understand. Charlie Munger Which basket does $FOUR belong in Shift4: Valuation and Personal Opinion: https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-four-valuation-cash-flow-debt-analysisr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/bearstone2023/p/shift4-four-valuation-cash-flow-debt-analysisr=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2003518176748081550)  2025-12-23T17:28Z [----] followers, 70.4K engagements


"PayPals $PYPL unbranded and branded segments have a symbiotic relationship. If one falls the other weakens. Theyre both under attack. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183287385r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183287385r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2009283994391544100)  2026-01-08T15:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Investing is easy. Buy low and sell high. 📈 Golf is also easy. Just hit a hole in one every time. ⛳"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2008931067554562421)  2026-01-07T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PYPL not showing a breakdown of branded and unbranded numbers is concerning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2008744225756848632)  2026-01-07T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"PayPal $PYPL has [--] core businesses. The biggest is its branded wallet which drives 2/3 of profits. Thats where my deep dive starts.👇 https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183187758r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-183187758r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2008569125220872301)  2026-01-06T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One of if not the greatest business insights in tech came from Steve Jobs nearly half a century ago. He started acting on it in the 1970s when he pushed for endtoend control with the Apple II and later with the Lisa and Macintosh. The idea was captured perfectly in [----] at the iPhone keynote when he quoted Alan Kay: People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware. You do not really appreciate the power of this until you study a lot of different businesses. To give just one example because I am working on a deep analysis of PayPal $PYPL: the company now finds itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2006802155387461993)  2026-01-01T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Name a better business model than taking in dollars at 0% and earning 4% on Tbills with no branches no deposit insurance and a tiny headcount. Shadow banks issuing stablecoins have it good. The economics will be challenged but right now its arguably one of the best business models in the world. Heres the nuance of the situation 👇 https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/stablecoin-shadow-bank-dollar-railsr=4e3bxf https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/stablecoin-shadow-bank-dollar-railsr=4e3bxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2006751182056816788)  2026-01-01T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Next week I will be rolling out a new series on PayPal $PYPL. It will be structurally different from the Shift4 series. The Shift4 analysis focused heavily on understanding the payments industry from a historical perspective. I initially considered taking the same approach for PayPal; however after extensive research I've determined that this story is fundamentally different. It requires seeing into the future to make a compelling investment case. What makes PayPal's situation unique is that the answer to questions like "will the branded PayPal button survive" cannot be derived from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2006071882399809829)  2025-12-30T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The math of sending $10000 to London: 🏦 SWIFT: $250 cost (hidden FX spread) [--] days to settle. 💳 Card: $290 cost instant auth 2-day settle. 🪙 Stablecoin: $0.01 cost 10-second settle. We are watching the separation of what money is (the dollar) from how it moves (the rails). Read the full breakdown: https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/rewiring-world-stablecoins-settlement-layerr=4e3bxf https://bearstone2023.substack.com/p/rewiring-world-stablecoins-settlement-layerr=4e3bxf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2006018524431409259)  2025-12-30T15:04Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"One final note on Shift4 $FOUR before I move on to the next company. I recently saw someone claim that Shift4s acquisition playbook has been [--] + [--] = [--]. That was the entire argument no evidence just assertion. Others have echoed that the companys organic growth potential is obvious again without quantification. Having feelings about a stock is not the same as having conviction in one. As discussed in this analysis there are material questions around how Shift4 funds growth and what portion of that growth is truly organic and the cash flow statement shows that the current playbook still relies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004612744360673513)  2025-12-26T17:58Z [----] followers, 20.9K engagements


"PayPal $PYPL and other stablecoin issuers have a deceptively simple model: receive USD at 0% park it in Tbills at 4% and issue stablecoins against the float. That trade is unacceptable to underwrite if you dont understand the history of credit cards ACH and wires that built todays payment rails. In my latest piece I tell the story of how Visa and Mastercard emerged and how they are a quiet tax on commerce. https://substack.com/@bearstone2023/note/p-182529168r=4e3bxf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004299187253661750)  2025-12-25T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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