# ![@BagelPolling Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1521143881345159171.png) @BagelPolling The Great Canadian Bagel

The Great Canadian Bagel posts on X about canada, money, inflation, countries the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1521143881345159171/interactions)
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### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1521143881345159171/posts_active)
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### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1521143881345159171/followers)
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### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1521143881345159171/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [musicians](/list/musicians) 

**Social topic influence**
[canada](/topic/canada) #2462, [money](/topic/money), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [countries](/topic/countries), [gdp](/topic/gdp), [ford](/topic/ford), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [if you](/topic/if-you), [election](/topic/election) #1176, [china](/topic/china) #4222

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@prominentbryan](/creator/undefined) [@bryan4langara](/creator/undefined) [@mileslunn](/creator/undefined) [@syntheticusalt](/creator/undefined) [@someguy67791867](/creator/undefined) [@kpthinks95](/creator/undefined) [@hettrickmichael](/creator/undefined) [@vanislestuartd](/creator/undefined) [@argueswithbots](/creator/undefined) [@thejasonjbailey](/creator/undefined) [@oneculture13](/creator/undefined) [@prominentdog](/creator/undefined) [@jefferypetts](/creator/undefined) [@kylejhutton](/creator/undefined) [@2closetocall](/creator/undefined) [@realalbanianpat](/creator/undefined) [@fredinnodev](/creator/undefined) [@votelabonte](/creator/undefined) [@scottiebarney](/creator/undefined) [@wyattclaypool](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The political split we are seeing here (other polls have shown it too) should be deeply concerning. [--] men are the second most conservative but [--] women are the least. Whatever social factor is causing that is likely why marriage and dating rates are collapsing. Three-in-five 18- to 34-year-old women in Ontario say they would vote NDP if an election were held today. For all other demographics at least a plurality say they would vote for the PC Party instead. https://t.co/LcjTj2AtkJ https://t.co/Q4lIQ8aidX Three-in-five 18- to 34-year-old women in Ontario say they would vote NDP if an election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1643295992345681931)  2023-04-04T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall Completely agreed. The question is can they still find a unicorn like that in Ontario - though I think the Federal Liberals have exhausted the reservoir of "good" candidates through the meat grinder of Trudeaus cabinet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1643304573090553879)  2023-04-04T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt I completely understand you here albeit from the perspective of jobs and less about housing. But for YEARS if someone in Atlantic Canada complained about the neglect in the region allowing it to suffer economically the only retort was "just move""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1657891755893694464)  2023-05-14T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Sometimes it feels like you are not allowed to highlight problems without being told "just give up and leave". Yet when an area is your home it hurts tremendously to have to abandon it because of bad policy made by other levels of government"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1657891766115217415)  2023-05-14T23:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Aiden_CDN Potentially I haven't looked at every sector but most provinces do 75% of their trade with the US so reduced trade barriers overall helped provinces with little manufacturing (cheaper imports and more markets to export to)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1661881785213435909)  2023-05-25T23:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Looks like I'm going to Quebec city in the fall fun times to be had by all I hope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1661885280045940739)  2023-05-26T00:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall At this point idk my intuition and my math says UCP win but all of these terrible polls for them say otherwise - truth be told idk whats going on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1661885667515801604)  2023-05-26T00:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @fedtanyl To add here things like AI art drawers or chat GPT are equivalent to space X landing on Mars. Its a new use of tech we've had for [--] years we just didn't back then because that tech was too expensive for this purpose. It still doesn't get us closer to Alpha cen though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1673539171867082752)  2023-06-27T03:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 Didn't you know The 1PP increase in Loblaws profits because everyone stopped buy brand name items because of inflation forced them to try and save some money is really what causes inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1673773739664654337)  2023-06-27T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@liuxi80689349 Most of the people work in unionized industries. The region also tends to be poorer iirc and is often neglected compared to southern Ontario which makes it ripe for populism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674394696888532992)  2023-06-29T23:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@patrickdavitt @KristinRaworth @TWilsonOttawa Interesting I didn't know pot store owners were suffering troubles. Guess nothing went successfully then lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674511401610629121)  2023-06-29T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall I'm extremely confident that he will. Though I suspect it will be sleeper flips like [----] Nova Scotia was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674548357186957313)  2023-06-29T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So funny story on my drive to Poilievres rally today. I'm driving from Halifax to Truro and naturally start running out of gas (haven't filled up in two weeks). So I stop by Stewiacke to get some gas at the petro can there. I get out at the pump and my card is declined"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674567898436698113)  2023-06-29T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm a bit dumbfounded but I go and walk in to the store to talk to the cashier. She casually says to me like this is totally normal "Oh we've been suffering cyber attacks lately and our pump pay machines are funky but I can serve you here""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674567899631984640)  2023-06-29T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So I am left wondering who on earth is cyberattacking a petrocan in Stewiacke Its a town of [----] people not exactly a major place. Now my Fiancee thinks she meant petrocan as a whole is but I've not read anything about that so that would surprise me even more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674567900840050688)  2023-06-29T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt 100% its an app designed to exploit young women when they are struggling and too desperate to realize the life ruining consequences of porn. In the end they lose everything including their dignity for less than a minimum wage job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674570196072165377)  2023-06-30T00:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JasonCraigBrown @2closetocall He plays well with the crowd and is very sincere when you talk to him. Also real talk the dedication of shaking 200+ peoples hands with photos is intense. My legs were tired from just standing during event and waiting in line and there was another [---] people behind me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1674571651902582786)  2023-06-30T00:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Honestly there should be criminal prosecution for someone at CBC. This is overtly propagandistic election interference to try and make Smith lose the election. This is tantamount to likely millions of dollars of in kind donations to the NDP. Journalism is an integralpart of our society and all I've ever asked for is fair accurate and balanced coverage. After months of the CBC reporting interference between my office and Crown prosecutors today CBC news removed references to direct contact between my office and https://t.co/WOWAKOqFkt Journalism is an integralpart of our society and all I've"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1677047264399769600)  2023-07-06T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Blaine Higgs speed runs continues. I'd donate so much to the NBPCs right now if I lived there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1677844674671792130)  2023-07-09T01:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@basedcanuck123 Higgs also: - changed policies to inform parents of kid's gender identity - refused to fund private abortion clinics - said he would refuse provincial police resources for firearm confiscation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1677848096259047426)  2023-07-09T01:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@basedcanuck123 I am not sure what your goal is. Undermining Higgs because of some cinos in his party Its not like he has much control over who his MLAs are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1677866380777889796)  2023-07-09T05:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@basedcanuck123 Have faith"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1677876650497777664)  2023-07-09T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall My hypothesis - sometime in spring [----] if Trudeau keeps increasing quotas the PPC will start gaining momentum as anti-immigration sentiment rises. Come September and the election campaign Poilievre will promise to lower the quota to shore up his right flank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678198650495811585)  2023-07-10T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Not directly comparable but the expected starting wage for Data Science/Software developers in Halifax is 60k right now. However there is a huge range because jobs that require Canadian citizenship paying closer to 70k for a new grad but those than don't are still around 50k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678426762584227842)  2023-07-10T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Grocery inflation is 9% CPI is a terrible stat that underreports real inflation because it counts technological improved as deflation. I.e. if todays car is 5% better than last years but the price went up by 4% then inflation is -1% by CPI math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678440991274016773)  2023-07-10T16:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Endemic inflation is worse than a recession. Its not the bank of Canada's fault here that the Feds and provinces have decided to deficit spend during record high inflation. If governments just stopped increasing spending for a few years we could have lower interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678442279718080513)  2023-07-10T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @SyntheticusAlt Raising interest rates reduces velocity of money which in turn reduces supply of money which in turn reduces actual inflation. Now government recklessly spending and borrowing directly impedes this as does inflationary taxes like the CFS and Carbon tax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678446012711542785)  2023-07-10T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @SyntheticusAlt Now that said the Bank of Canada is no hero they did all of this too us by being wildly incompetent but the proper corrective actions are painful but necessary. Its really frustrating that everything we did in covid was braindead and caused far worse harms than the actual virus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678446836149809155)  2023-07-10T16:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @VanIsleStuartD Whats supply side about groceries Whats supply side about people buying second and third homes Besides thats a misunderstanding of inflation (blame CPI for confusing the two). Inflation is only cause by money printing. Supply issues are price shocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678447238215868417)  2023-07-10T16:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @DomDefran12 That's mostly Ottawa's fault. Though the BoC does have blame because they chose to use QE to inject 500b$ into the economy which cause the entire inflation problem and then waited [--] months to tackle the predictable inflation when it was already above target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678447727250755585)  2023-07-10T17:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GRocco1997 @SyntheticusAlt They do its just offset by including things like cars which inherently reduce in price overtime. They do this to explicitly underreport inflation to look better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678449386307690501)  2023-07-10T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Its not though. CPI is a bad indicator and massively underreports inflation. If you look at everything that isn't tech or commodities (commodities are very unstable) - housing used cars food clothes etc are all still around 9%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678450651246870528)  2023-07-10T17:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt *average CPI rate. Again not the same thing. Housing has had 8-12% yoy increases for nearly [--] years now. Food medical care education (things tech hasn't helped) have also grown faster than 2%. The 2% figure is only reached because new cars computers etc get cheaper over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678452363051376677)  2023-07-10T17:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @2closetocall I cannot think of any others off hand but if we are going to force doctors to partake in those treatments you will see religious doctors leave. If I was a doctor and I was forced to provide abortions or MAID I would just emigrate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678461778387148814)  2023-07-10T17:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall In the legalistic sense no because that kind of discrimination is a constitutional issue vs a legislative one and constitutional law trumps regular legislation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678496881532366868)  2023-07-10T20:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall The problem with that is you've introduced a time limit on when you can MAID and it is very difficult to draw a robust line when its just a number. Someone with stage [--] cancer and [--] months to live is fine to you but its hard to defend why [--] months [--] day is wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678546266400120835)  2023-07-10T23:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MitchMaltby Both Cape Breton ridings and Central Nova. Kings Hants is LPC+6 and Sackville is LPC+7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678559759786549249)  2023-07-11T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wyatt_claypool Bingo People only really care about "threats" or "allies". So since Singh is neither a threat nor an ally to most Canadians people don't care. The moment he become the main left winger his approval will crater to mildly negative (probably [--] approve [--] disapprove)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678567864930910210)  2023-07-11T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @2closetocall I don have time tonight but I'm really curious what the PV would be if you duplicated [----] gave 100% turnout in rural Ontario and it all goes blue but Edmonton and Calgary narrowly go LPC/NDP. I think this would put O'Toole up really high while being net neutral on seats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678572869154922497)  2023-07-11T01:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wyatt_claypool Also worth noting kicking someone out for wearing a shirt is likely to cause actual problems in the present moment and the more eccentric the shirt or person the bigger the risk. Better to smile take your photo and let them walk away happy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678574825634185216)  2023-07-11T01:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@sami_baaj This would be peak FPTP. gaining 6% more voters but losing 60% of your political representation xD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678575317647081473)  2023-07-11T01:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@mileslunn This is just what the my model says when I set all the provinces to nanos numbers. That said [--] seats in ATL could easily happen and as a person honestly expect something like that. My model only says [--] but I have on the ground knowledge math cannot model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678575944175435776)  2023-07-11T01:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mileslunn The CPC is a touch a head but its close enough that its not yielding very many seats. When plugged into the demographic trends what seems to be happening if the CPC is doing well in rural Ontario and a lesser extent some of the smaller cities while just treading water in the GTA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678581235126358016)  2023-07-11T01:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ok everyone looking for some new music so what is everyone favourite song If you cannot choose a favourite just toss out your top few"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678582663001649152)  2023-07-11T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What I think a lot of left wingers forget is E0 would be a massive shock because the democrats would abolish the NHS because basically no democrat politicians or staffers actually support that kind of healthcare system (I know and talk to several staffers)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678586017958313988)  2023-07-11T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The NHS *might* get replaced with publicly funded privately delivered system but this would prompt a major realignment in the UK and based on the UK's demographics it line up to be very similar to Wisconsin or PA - so around R+5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678586019338153984)  2023-07-11T02:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoshMessmer @SyntheticusAlt @VanIsleStuartD That's the new definition but I prefer the older one because the new one obfuscates and confuses unrelated things. If we consider prices and money supply distinctly its easier to understand whats going on - i.e. why CPI can be 2% but food & housing increase by double digits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1678587465857114112)  2023-07-11T02:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@purrlitics I doubt it I don't think any faction in the conservative tent has majority support to push for a ban. I'm very staunchly anti-drug but I wouldn't even bother having it on my legislative wish list. So I cannot imagine the party as a whole backing a ban"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678827020573110295)  2023-07-11T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt They would inherit their grandparents home no As long as they have the money to pay property taxes and maintain the home they would be fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678838901740371968)  2023-07-11T18:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wyatt_claypool In a dictatorship citizens cannot look at the opposition and think "they could do better". Instead they evaluate their leader off of whether their life got better or not. I.e. If Russia had a real opposition Putin would have similar or worse approvals to western leaders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678897765277900800)  2023-07-11T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@wyatt_claypool It's ironic really the Red Tory fear of being controversial means they refuse to use wedge issues when wedge issues are the only way to proactively win an election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1678937903404052480)  2023-07-12T01:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Now you might ask "whats technological penetration" Its pretty straightforward someone might have invented the steel plow but that doesn't mean you have one. Until you have access to the steel plow your productivity cannot increase"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1679167618916261888)  2023-07-12T16:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So why does this matter Well its simple math - if you are a CEO and want to build more widgets you have two options: 1) acquire more capital goods (steel plows) 2) hire more labour"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1679167621785174019)  2023-07-12T16:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@6974searchlight Thats fair my poll is all options I consider subpar or bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1679190006164750339)  2023-07-12T18:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@basedcanuck123 @TheJasonJBailey It depends on what Poilievre does - if he is super based the PPC could wilt away. If he utterly fails on immigration the PPC can only grow as the right gets frustrated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1680042734155882497)  2023-07-15T02:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JaxBunt31 @2closetocall I say ruined because it permanently stymied France economically and demographically. In [----] France was richer and more populous than Germany. France is only now catching back up population and economy wise and more because France's fertility rate is better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1680043656785321984)  2023-07-15T02:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Accidentally released tomorrows video early today. At midnight i had [--] views a bit disappointed with a subpar release so I have a shower and get ready for bed. About to go to bed an hour later and look now I am at [---] views and gaining fast and I gained [--] subs. Wtf happened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1680793933721350144)  2023-07-17T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JefferyPetts The town where my sister lives has a [--] year waitlist for daycare spots. You cannot enrol until you kid is born. So unless you know someone its not possible to get daycare so in the end only the well connected people in the town can use it. Its of course subsidized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1681043032483717120)  2023-07-17T21:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm betting Trudeau puts Fraser into a senior cabinet post to try and shore up Atlantic Canada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1681409329197400071)  2023-07-19T00:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"What I would actually do if I was PM: Social: [--]. Restructure gun licensing to three categories - long guns handguns automatic guns. [--]. Repeal hate speech laws [--]. Abolish subsidized childcare [--]. Ban Maid [--]. End Federal Harm Reduction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1681715506309472268)  2023-07-25T08:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @TheJasonJBailey @SyntheticusAlt Of course Honestly Poilievre doesn't have many options but increasing parental support (CCB and equivalent) reducing housing costs and increasing median household incomes faster than inflation is really all he can do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1683209769555841024)  2023-07-23T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Putting the entire nanos poll into my model (so considering other polls) and nationally we would now be at: LPC: [---] CPC: [---] NDP: [--] GPC: [--] BQ: [--] This includes [--] flips in Atlantic Canada brining the CPC to [--] seats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1683636956717019142)  2023-08-01T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I have never watched a video that is more out of touch than this. The Liberals are toast in rural Atlantic Canada this clip will be played non stop in attack ads. If we see a [----] election and two more carbon tax hikes I'm not sure if the LPC will be able to recover for decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1685074329262788609)  2023-07-29T21:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@TheJasonJBailey @SomeGuy67791867 @VanIsleStuartD @newblindeye @CAToryFan Whether Ford is vulnerable or not depends on what happens in December. I doubt Stiles will ever come close to winning so its down to the qualities of the next OLP leade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1686107766975324160)  2023-07-31T20:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@OrangeLeafWave I'd wager a good number of NDP voters who don't like the LPC are voting GPC because the NDP is too close to the LPC now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1686472298247671811)  2023-08-01T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jared7wally Using Nanos numbers I have NS at: CPC: [--] LPC: [--] NDP: [--] GPC: [--] Oth: [--] Using all polls: CPC: [--] LPC: [--] NDP: [--] GPC: [--] PPC: [--] Oth: 1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1686511221162340353)  2023-08-01T22:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I only need [--] more subscribers to get to [----] subscribers on YouTube. If you are a cool Canadian ET user who is not subscribed already you know what to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1688412419805081600)  2023-08-07T04:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The absolute last thing to do when looking at these results is assume "we should cut taxes and increase spending on everything". Politicians shouldn't listen directly to what polls say because often the poll obfuscates what people actually need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1688995057435545600)  2023-08-08T19:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Again in this case its clear to me people need a stronger economy with healthy real wage growth low core inflation and falling housing costs. That's what people want to be fixed not tax rates or spending numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1688995059289493504)  2023-08-08T19:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt To be clear minimum wage will never be enough to make life affordable in Toronto. Its just simply impossible. The only thing we can do is dramatically reduce housing costs by reducing immigration rates and building more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1689018742263439360)  2023-08-08T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@herlanderdi Liberalism is an ideology not just a political party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1689297720505151488)  2023-08-09T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 Baber was easily my #2 behind Poilievre. I bet if Poilievre didn't run he would've gotten at least 20-40% of first choice votes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1690444883465498624)  2023-08-12T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I get amused about how politicos wax on about the CPCs Quebec problem (10/78 seats) but never the LPCs prairies problem (6/62 seats)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1691513092155252739)  2023-08-15T18:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@jenniferelle_ Makes sense to me. Zoomers people have been bombarded with climate doomsaying for most of their lives AND they haven't lived long enough to join the "nothing ever happens crew""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1692270795655979140)  2023-08-17T20:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Oh look at that Stefanson is following the lead of Higgs. I'm calling it now if she acts like this and promises some more interesting conservative policies she wins reelection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1692290159515988332)  2023-08-17T21:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I find it absolutely hysterical that the Quebec political system is now "do we want a right leaning nationalist or a left leaning nationalist" I'll have to confess as well I was completely wrong about the PQ I thought they were toast but I guess Plamondon has rebuilt the party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1692553377593339931)  2023-08-18T15:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Another good one I just thought of - upgrade rail lines to all be electrified. Manitoba has oodles of clean electricity no sense in using diesel trains anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1692887760292434412)  2023-08-19T13:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@steven44552 @DouglasEdward84 @2closetocall Also frankly weeds affects are worse for society. I would rather people take a minor stimulant than a major depressant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1693305768815026543)  2023-08-20T16:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall Having policies =/= ignoring the issue. Poilievre in his communications should not talk about it. If a reporter asks he should have a response but there is no advantage in him bringing it up himself because his solutions will not satisfy the 17% who put climate as #1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1693357108589171018)  2023-08-20T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@steven44552 Agreed. I think he wants every sundays updates to show movement so he can keep driving traffic to his site. I respect it from a business decision but it absolutely sacrifices accuracy. There is a reason I only do monthly updates for Canadian Federal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1693378717949505640)  2023-08-20T21:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @ryanisback2023 @JoshWylie14 @CAToryFan When has that ever stopped Trudeau lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1694439310068461896)  2023-08-23T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoshMessmer @DenisTrailin If you want to call the defence sector a P3 I guess Though a lot of Halifax's defence sector is export oriented because Canada doesn't bother to build warships"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1694471481588126006)  2023-08-23T22:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall Its definitely housing inflation & cost of living have hurt but whats driving the average non-politicos around me is the reality that 90-95% of the population could not buy a house right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1695601924593107119)  2023-08-27T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is probably the most dramatic movement thus far for Poilievre. BC has moved from a complete toss up to complete domination of the CPC. Apparently taking a conservative stance on drugs and stumping hard on housing/cost of living played exceedingly well in BC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1695946501179015406)  2023-08-27T23:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Whenever I see anyone who use anything but homeless (unless its ironic) I immediately think less of them. Houseless unhoused etc are stupid euphemism create by people with no skills other than creating fake problems over word choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1696558824394576360)  2023-08-29T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The same holds true with basically all language policing. Its stupid doesn't do anything of value and is only done because it makes people too lazy to solve problems feel better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1696558827108225400)  2023-08-29T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall I suspect he will get ride of everything the CBC does except online news or maybe niche local news for rural areas. I don't have the budget but I'd wager 75% of its budget will be removed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1696573944139059383)  2023-08-29T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 Especially when you are well established party polling behind a brand new party that has zero seats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697000102294851665)  2023-08-30T21:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I wonder if Quebec City will live up to my lofty memories of being there for [--] hours in [----] when my Dad and I stopped at an A&W on the way to Ottawa. My 2/10 French sure showed his 1/10 french. Also cudos to the cashier lady who managed to understand my subpar french"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697085308938965425)  2023-08-31T03:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@eweezy__ Yup. They are having to cut deployment sizes to compensate for bad recruitment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697331273180524544)  2023-08-31T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ontario is not going to move meaningfully from scandal or corruption. That doesn't matter anymore ideology is too entrenched right now. Ontario main chance is if the OLP decide to elect a tonally different leader a la Poilievre vs O'Toole"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697447630622622188)  2023-09-01T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheJasonJBailey @VanIsleStuartD Its not guaranteed but hes been very politically active here and at the last Poilievre rally I was at they asked the crowd if they wanted him to run again. It was a resounding yes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697773039746789755)  2023-09-02T00:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheJasonJBailey @VanIsleStuartD Ill also add MacKay was in attendance as a guest speaker at that rally. He made no commitments but the context clues at minimum suggests he is considering it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1697774097873215950)  2023-09-02T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GRocco1997 Defence or Justice are both very likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1698389374788907350)  2023-09-03T17:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You wake up on the morning of October [--] [----] and this is the result. What happens next Who leads the NDP and LPC into [----] Who becomes the principle opposition party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1698536477678780755)  2023-09-04T03:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Example #1 on why negative campaigning doesn't work. Bernier keeps going more negative on Poilievre every time I see his feed and his poll numbers are not moving. To succeed you need to give people a vision things to vote for not just demonizing a person"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1698687431799660852)  2023-09-04T13:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Thought experiment time in [----] the CPC+10 polls continue and Trudeau retires. Which LPC member volunteers to Captain the sinking ship in [----] I cannot imagine any of the obvious front runners want the job in that environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1698691248549171448)  2023-09-04T13:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Video live here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1698745926548926901)  2023-09-04T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I doubt Houston will have a real challenge in [----]. The NDP have about a [--] seat ceiling right now and the NSLP seem to have entirely collapsed in rural Nova Scotia. If a party is not competitive in rural Nova Scotia it is irrelevant basically. Updated @338Canada Nova Scotia Model: PC: [--] (+10) NDP: [--] (+2) LIB: [--] (-12) IND: [--] (-) - September [--] [----] - (Seat changes with [----] election) Model details here: https://t.co/WPUj2IsLkh https://t.co/5exakkea62 Updated @338Canada Nova Scotia Model: PC: [--] (+10) NDP: [--] (+2) LIB: [--] (-12) IND: [--] (-) - September [--] [----] - (Seat changes with [----] election)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699047844571709803)  2023-09-05T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@realNathanWrong I cannot wait for the NDP platform that appeals to only Sydney-Glace Bay-New Waterford and the HRM. It will be hilarious to watch NDP voters moan about how Houston cleaned the floor when they don't even try to win 50% of the province"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699049858676465866)  2023-09-05T13:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Anthony__Koch This is what happens when people do not study history. Revolutions are always lead by the upper middle class. The grandfather of Revolutions the French Revolution was lead almost entirely upper middle class lawyers and Aristocrats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699093908658004025)  2023-09-05T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CanadaNoFuture @Anthony__Koch Canada thankfully is a functioning democracy and democratic revolutions just entail a total paradigm shift politically. If one does occur the CPC (or another non-LPC party) should become the new default party. Arguably that is what current polls portent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699129552134398375)  2023-09-05T18:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CanadaHawk Don't even get me started on this. Politicians will be like "oh we need a new piece of equipment hey defence company can you build this off the shelf product". THEN over the next decade keep asking ever more expensive upgrades to it and become shocked when its expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699150294351810816)  2023-09-05T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@krispykato So recency bias in election models like mine just says how much weight to put on new polls vs older polls. The most simple way you do it is: weight = square (sample size) / (election day - poll day) beta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699161152792523112)  2023-09-05T20:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@purrlitics @NorthernPolling Lmao you make me want to run my own totally and clearly bias sample poll again lol. Though I do have 50% more followers now so maybe I will actually get respectable sample size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699223805879586854)  2023-09-06T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mileslunn 20-24% of people polled are undecided on Trump vs Biden. Both have nearly 100% name ID so I doubt these voters are waiting to learn more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699836244061221018)  2023-09-07T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@2closetocall That was always silly Blanchetts BQ has always leaned closer to the CPC. Its distinctly to the left in some key areas but the BQ never needed an LPC government to do those. The things they support the CPC on *need* a CPC prime minister"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1699944611471409395)  2023-09-08T00:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall If you could convert your entire twitter following to votes you'd win Just gotta figure out how to do that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1700254997609685371)  2023-09-08T21:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Speeches like this one always cleanse me of any doubts I might have. Poilievre may not necessarily back all of my pet issues but its very clear that he cares. Not just about Canada but every Canadian. He inspires hope in me that Canada not only can but will get better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1700347690003955867)  2023-09-09T03:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CdnElectWatch From what I've read the childcare program had little impact. Though its hard to disentangle because at the same time Quebec rolled out a lot of pro-natalism policies at the same time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1700566257127305581)  2023-09-09T17:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I don't know who needs to hear this but keep in mind the group least likely to abuse a child is that childs parents. The next least likely group is their religious leaders. Teacher commit for more child sexual abuse than both previous groups combined"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701236774280769967)  2023-09-11T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Todays video is now live Today we are discussing how much the political landscape has changed since Poilievre was elected leader of the CPC last year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701306927576191351)  2023-09-11T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 Interesting whats the rational on FDP vs SVP in Switzerland"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701308831999971462)  2023-09-11T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt A lot of people who presently make 50k are currently university students. Particularly in the 25k band. Naturally there are poor non-university students but its not conclusive to just look at income because two very distinct groups occupy these brackets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701584343414542788)  2023-09-12T13:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bold prediction time if Newfoundland votes plurality CPC in [----] the CPC wins and the CPC makes oil & gas development easier then Newfoundland will be vote like Saskatchewan in 2035"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701631438318182645)  2023-09-12T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The powerful NDP strategy of propping up a government with one hand and punching it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701640899904655420)  2023-09-12T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The reason governments continue to push for immigration is out of this daft liberal idea that everyone is interchangeable national characters don't exist and international clout matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701691587162480935)  2023-09-12T20:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The only quasi benefits of immigration is a broad tax base and raw GDP growth. It does not increase the domestic persons wages and the extra tax base rarely corresponds with better services"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1701691590249513042)  2023-09-12T20:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ah yes increase immigration so GDP can be bigger Why you might ask *checks notes* so uh anonymous twitter politicos can be happy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702076940402729230)  2023-09-13T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Societies who sit at below replacement fertility and do nothing about it deserve to fail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702077718588719587)  2023-09-13T21:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JaxBunt31 Yup Im sure we will hear at the end of this year we settled a record number of new migrants which will undercut any time efforts done on housing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702385772014317859)  2023-09-14T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If Trudeau really wanted to reduce grocery prices he would abolish the carbon tax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702427669160452236)  2023-09-14T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt I wouldn't be so certain because immigration is still increasing so everything he's done so far will be meaningless. Tightening is possible polls might wax and wane but with a bad economy expensive houses and a drug crisis Trudeau's screwed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702687302487580878)  2023-09-15T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So what I like about this since we all basically know what he is announcing is if Aaron Gunn is in parliament there will be a strong voice to manage the drug portfolio and give me even more confidence in the CPC's drug treatment plan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702695256121020542)  2023-09-15T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Unpopular opinion this is good. I don't want a free trade agreement with India. This will only hurt Canada for no discernible purpose"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702715296107147494)  2023-09-15T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is a great detailed article arguing why Parliamentary supremacy is so critical. Judges do not protect rights they are merely extremely unaccountable legislators that masquerade as impartial actors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1702798582858895405)  2023-09-15T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall The last cabinet shuffle was the final nail in the coffin IMO. Andy background is in city planning and revitalizing downtowns. Being snubbed on the Minister of Housing role when the LPC is dying largely due to the housing crisis is such a slap in the face"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703273046931374181)  2023-09-17T05:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Labour is out flanking the Torys from the right. This is by far the funniest thing I have ever seen in politics. If Starmer keeps his promises this will be hilarious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1703537833791635827)  2023-09-17T22:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall Its too bad the right has this tendency to just oppose things the incidental to the lefts plans for no reason. There is nothing wrong with EVs but people's opposition to the forced ban on ICEs car turned into opposing EVs in general"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703616274524180572)  2023-09-18T03:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@2closetocall We are seeing this last point in real time. In Nova Scotia heat pumps are more efficient than any other type of heating and everyone is switching to them as soon as they can afford it more or less. Now we are poor over here so that takes some time lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703617490096431428)  2023-09-18T03:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mileslunn Who said he will acts like Fore Reagan or Thatcher Poilievre is popular because he is his own man. He is doing strong in the polls whilst being the most right wing leader in Canada for decades. If he is successful as PM he will be fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703846671254196652)  2023-09-18T19:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mileslunn Majority support doesn't make something compassionate. Also Mulroney was a neoliberal and free trade since the dawn of its existence was an idea championed by *liberals*. Its the core tenet of economic liberalism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703854572274376892)  2023-09-18T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kpthinks95 @mileslunn @DoubleAspect Is that any different to what goes on now If some terrible happens to a group supported by the left the LPC government does everything they can do mitigate it. If [--] churches are burned to the ground in deliberate arson they don't even lift a finger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703866991725981864)  2023-09-18T20:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kpthinks95 @mileslunn @DoubleAspect Historically we only see small homogeneous fairly liberal democratic places or large diverse autocratic illiberal places. Fe Austria-Hungary would never have worked as a democracy but it did work for hundreds of years as an empire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703885635990282462)  2023-09-18T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect Our GDP/capita was growing at 2.3%/year pre-1989 and then was stagnant until [----]. Then it grew again until [----] and has since been stagnant. The net affect is zero net growth since [----]. 2013+ is likely dollar collapse + immigration. 1989-2002 I'd argue is a trade shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703943968457703575)  2023-09-19T01:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect Any change in trade policy is all but guaranteed to cause a trade shock because some industries will die when the rules change. The case for a new free trade agreement cannot be "well it might not be worse". The burden of proof for benefit is substantial in my eyes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703971946206040191)  2023-09-19T03:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect I would describe myself as a trade realist. Free trade overwhelmingly favours the country with better regulations lower taxes and either a) cheaper labour or b) more productive labour. If we cut corporates taxes and made better regulations we would be profiting but we didn't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703978959480791511)  2023-09-19T03:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect So in [----] and especially [----] (Mexico was a disaster to add) the FTA and later NAFTA were terrible for us because Mulroney and Chretien ran terrible economic policies in Canada. However [--] years on we are pretty stuck with it and all the harms it caused"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703979298154033462)  2023-09-19T03:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect My position more precisely is that the FTA (NAFTA was always a bad idea Mexico's labour was too cheap) was bad because we had/have terrible economic stewardship. Free trade is great for a country if their regulatory/tax system is better because its basically neocolonialism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703981092821221804)  2023-09-19T03:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 @mileslunn @kpthinks95 @DoubleAspect I'm using neocolonialism in this sense to mean having first dips on a countries resources likely below market rate (no trade barriers). Cheap imports and a captive export market is great for a competitive economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1703981512603918425)  2023-09-19T03:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This was expected. Inflation comes in waves peaks at the end of the summer and troughs at the end of winter. Assuming our fiscal monetary and immigration policies remain constant we hopefully will see inflation return to normal next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704131340130828728)  2023-09-19T13:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I don't see how the economy will handle mass housing defaults in [----]. We already have people with negative amortization rates and the fixed rates have 2-3 more years before their impact is felt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704131350616539179)  2023-09-19T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is why I don't think Poilievres polling has hit its peak yet. I expect his numbers to cool off into the winter and then surge to an even higher high next summer. Summer [----] he could reasonably exceed 50% if the housing market collapses under the weight of bad debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704131355750387915)  2023-09-19T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Potentially unpopular opinion - we would have less sexual misconduct and an easier time prosecuting sexual assault (right now it's nearly impossible to prove in court) if it wasn't for the "sexual revolution". Turns out traditional sexual mores existed for a reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704144580097032228)  2023-09-19T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD The DeSantis campaign is the biggest political malfeasance that has ever occurred. I have no idea what his plan was - he waited too long and tried to outflank Trump from the right but was subpar about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704155456309023040)  2023-09-19T15:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gdnicholson Yes actually there was. Data in Canada sucks because statscan sucks but in places like the UK where they record data better there are more rapes per capita now than in the 1890s even accounting for the expanded modern definition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704169884601463165)  2023-09-19T16:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD It really felt like DeSantis didn't want to win or at least his team didn't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704170676356034992)  2023-09-19T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gdnicholson According to who"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704170865204548050)  2023-09-19T16:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ryanisback2023 Oil is more expensive this year than last year though. Also inflation is only a part of cost of living. The CPI number is inherently deflationary because technological improvements reduce prices. If you only did energy food shelter transit inflation is likely untouched"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704175787685838962)  2023-09-19T16:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Why would we build nuclear power plants in Romania when half our provinces still use coal This government makes no sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704463731218915408)  2023-09-20T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"After running the numbers (including the new Research Co and Angus Reid polls) the NDP is back in narrow majority territory [--] vs [--]. Interestingly the majority is coming from the NDP gaining [--] seats in rural Manitoba so I am actually skeptical of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1704637187713618421)  2023-09-20T23:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @SomeGuy67791867 Yes precisely. There is a great case study of Obama's campaign in [----] his campaign chair is on record saying the conversation about immigration was killing them so they stopped talking about it by making sold bold decisions elsewhere to change the topic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1704695910238683150)  2023-09-21T03:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"All told my thoughts of this debate: Performance: Lamont was much stronger than I expected. Stefanson did solid but she needed to stand out and she didn't. Kinew's performance was fine but it didn't do it for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705009320260223422)  2023-09-22T00:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A [--] point lead is absolutely hilarious. Even if you do the lefts favourite thing and naively add the LPC+NDP together the CPC still has a plurality. Federal Polling: CPC: 42% (+8) LPC: 22% (-11) NDP: 17% (-1) BQ: 7% (-1) GPC: 6% (+4) PPC: 4% (-1) Other: 2% EKOS / September [--] [----] / n=608 / MOE 4% / IVR (% Change With [----] Federal Election) Check out federal details on @338Canada at: https://t.co/kg1xi0UiUP https://t.co/bc8QjPqEKm Federal Polling: CPC: 42% (+8) LPC: 22% (-11) NDP: 17% (-1) BQ: 7% (-1) GPC: 6% (+4) PPC: 4% (-1) Other: 2% EKOS / September [--] [----] / n=608 / MOE 4% / IVR (%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705399907325026397)  2023-09-23T01:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The Manitoba PC's really should have taken a "divisive" issue (at least divisive for the media) and ran hard on it day zero. They needed to suffocate the media environment of their weak points but they let the NDP dominate comms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705609111000297671)  2023-09-23T15:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@princeof416 @2closetocall I find it hilarious this is even a political issue - like surely the police and a community volunteer effort was all that was needed. This shouldn't even be on the premiers desk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705737317242060881)  2023-09-24T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Even the regionals in the 41-26 Abacus poll are inline. Frankly the only reason to doubt frankly is his firms track record. We very likely might see the next Abacus poll in the same ballpark"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705786317471117482)  2023-09-24T03:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If Trump wins by 10() points next fall that will be deeply hilarious. Imagine how deranged would democrats get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1705987069678342502)  2023-09-24T16:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I've not commented much about the whole honouring a literal nazi thing because there isn't much to say. Its par for the course of Trudeau's government and nothing will happen but posturing will happen as a result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1706363308138234137)  2023-09-25T17:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I guarantee you if you poll every other Atlantic province the age numbers would be similar. The LPC does best with boomers+ CPC does best with gen X and 30's. Atlantic Canada's youth are very polarized either deeply conservative or deeply progressive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1707435385247129966)  2023-09-28T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AH23923011 @comedicanadian Uh what is the second thing I said axing the carbon tax would do If the EU wants to put tariffs on our products so be it. the EU makes up a tiny destination of exports. It will have minimal impacts. People oversell tariffs alot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1707540424569630751)  2023-09-28T23:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mileslunn Interesting. That makes sense I wonder if Poilievre will keep pushing it further right or if the issue has hit its peak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1707589190471258350)  2023-09-29T02:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"This criticism would work better if the left wing drug model in BC wasn't still performing worse than Alberta. First [--] months of [----] Alberta: 13.8/100k BC: 23.7/100k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1707936059382808679)  2023-09-30T01:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CrimCartier I wouldn't be surprised if on an economy wide scale we reduced the % of GDP spent on pharmaceuticals but the question is can we afford it budget wise. I'm not sure if we can but if someone can show me we can pay for pharmacare without deficits I'm open to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1707943799849193505)  2023-09-30T02:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Minimum number of writers is dubious but banning AI is good. AI writers like chatGPT are awful. I'd much rather have a person write than the garbled mess that comes from chatGPT or equivalents"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1708636214704705646)  2023-10-02T00:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I don't know when the UI for likes/retweets/qrts changed but the new UI sucks. It used to be pretty easy to check who liked/retweeted and now I don't know how. Dumb change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1708653995663806751)  2023-10-02T01:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 After what Azerbaijan did in Artsakh without any relevant opposition and Russia's moderate success in Ukraine I'm not surprised. I expect at this rate China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1708690694183739835)  2023-10-02T03:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kpthinks95 @TheJasonJBailey @2closetocall Im not sure why a public registry would help with that Patrick browns offence was fraudulent sign ups by paying for the membership not inventing fake people. Though perhaps I misunderstand your goals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1708933029895323819)  2023-10-02T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@purrlitics Unless you have a great job lined up don't. I love Nova Scotia but we have the #1 poverty rate for a reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1709247801811521698)  2023-10-03T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The US had the highest tariffs in decades at a time when the median real income per capita grew at the fastest in decades. What does this mean"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1709912833754837070)  2023-10-05T12:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SomeGuy67791867 Yea but thats less of a dunk on Reaganite. Its also worth noting that the real median household income growth peaked in [----] when the tariffs came in and not in [----] when the tax policy changes came in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1709947941694193943)  2023-10-05T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The FHSA is unironically only good for people like myself. People who can already afford to buy a house (albeit not within 40km of Halifax) but want a tax write off before they do so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710023859242479705)  2023-10-05T20:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt I don't have time to watch the video tonight but I don't think it can be called transitory if we needed drastic interest rate hikes to stop it. Also fundamentally we would expect the inflation to eventually slowdown because the BoC stopped doing QE in december 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710145554561347609)  2023-10-06T04:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @JeanSbastienPa4 @JaredDapena Its double target That is extremely high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710396706481700991)  2023-10-06T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @JaredDapena @JeanSbastienPa4 You are aware wage stagnation is relative to inflation so have 4% inflation and 4% wage growth is still stagnation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710399599779762586)  2023-10-06T21:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt @JeanSbastienPa4 @JaredDapena Inflation ruins peoples lives as well Why on earth do we want 20% yoy housing price increases or 9% food inflation Its better to have some short term pain then let inflation become endemic. Endemic inflation destroys people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710400973682737507)  2023-10-06T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Uh I cannot save enough for a downpayment at 20% yoy inflation. At 6.5% now I can. Besides when inflation is under control interest rates go down. Houses likely never will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710402301045686276)  2023-10-06T21:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Its not though its brought price increases from 20% to 6.5% Thats a massive improvement. Sure building more houses is good but thats a long term solution I want a house in the near future not when Im 35"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710403740530880526)  2023-10-06T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SyntheticusAlt Downpayments exist and are the main problem for most people. When housing was increasing by 20% yoy (2020-2022 average) half of my savings were going to keep up with the dow payment now only 20% of my savings are which means I am making more progress to buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710411916923871396)  2023-10-06T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FergusAristotle @SyntheticusAlt Sure immigration and construction is important but low interest rates and rapid house inflation causes speculation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710440575588089924)  2023-10-06T23:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Poll for conservatives only (liberal poll in following tweet). An election occurs and you have party A (socon fiscally left) or B (soclib fiscally right) how would you vote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710511941100113956)  2023-10-07T04:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Poll for LEFT WINGERS only (right winger poll in a different tweet). An election occurs and you have party A (socon fiscally left) or B (soclib fiscally right) how would you vote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710512197674176704)  2023-10-07T04:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@gdnicholson The governing party of Slovakia is a social democrat party thats is wildly socially conservative. So it clearly exists in the wild"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710633656350306353)  2023-10-07T12:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"For those in the back intentionally killing civilians is not "resisting occupation" its psychopathic evil. There is a reason why "we don't negotiate with terrorists" is standard policy and why a two state solution has never actually been real thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1710654933203026195)  2023-10-07T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@kpthinks95 @mileslunn Honestly in my experience they consider them Europeans (even though I'm pretty sure sephardi jews are the majority). Maybe some more sophisticated members of them have a more coherent theory but I'm not aware of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1711839895692378118)  2023-10-10T20:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@1689Winnipeger Im so confused by this - the civil war is still ongoing. Rebels control large swaths of the country still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1711846504279744981)  2023-10-10T20:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"CA with total war has different incentives. Paradox to esporterization their games wants fast mathy games that players can "make builds" and "metas" to encourage competitive gaming. CA's competitive gaming is essentially just battles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1711956273204220355)  2023-10-11T04:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thats why modern total war battles often feel great but their campaign mechanics often feel unnecessarily shallow. CA as a company sees their business and franchise as a complex battle simulator and not a strategy game. Paradox sees there's as civ on cocaine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1711956276479922493)  2023-10-11T04:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The interconnected web of families created by marriage forms the building blocks of communities and the natural extrapolation of such phenomenon is what builds nations. Nationalism is then the extension of the familial bond to strangers who are similar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712105147357081641)  2023-10-11T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There is no "society" without healthy families. A problem coincidentally being experienced simultaneously by collectivist countries like China and individualist countries like the Canada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712105149340987811)  2023-10-11T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ftr it is perfectly plausible to smooth out welfare clawbacks/marginal effective tax rates without reducing welfare payments and without having massive budget overruns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712156141138928086)  2023-10-11T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Poilievre has already identified a lot of things he would cut funding to (infrastructure bank CBC general bureaucracy waste etc). There is also just general economic growth - reducing taxes/metrs and regulation changes can spur investment and grow GDP increasing revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712156143798133100)  2023-10-11T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mileslunn Interesting. We will see in march the tax changes and a new welfare program would come in the budget if they do it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712192812366614838)  2023-10-11T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoshMessmer Additionally its likely he is gambling on tax & regulatory reform (he talks about natural resource development alot) will spur investment and thus GDP growth organically increasing budgets without cutting or raising taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712202856500015371)  2023-10-11T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting. Looks like the CPC's rapid rise has plateaued. Based on this result it now appears to be hoovering around the through value - Its likely thats 40%. The 2% CPC - PPC could just be noise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712436257647665319)  2023-10-12T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Huge surprise win today at the Supreme Court. The court had ruled that bill c-69 is mostly unconstitutional. Though the carveout for s. 81-91 doesn't make this a slam dunk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712877579319799856)  2023-10-13T17:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Since we seem to be approaching some form of global conflict its helpful to understand the current global situation. By my count there are [--] "great powers" the US France Russia China and Iran. This map covers my best estimate as their approximate influence webs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1712970512085737630)  2023-10-13T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VanIsleStuartD @realNathanWrong I'm expecting Poilievre to exit fall [----] with an even larger lead than this year once the real estate bombs starts going off. In the short term though inflation will decrease in January/February because consumer spending always plummets then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1713981340863909922)  2023-10-16T18:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kpthinks95 @SouFloCon Ironically that's exactly what Trump is. His endorsements in GOP primaries mostly guarantees that person wins the nomination and he is the nominee by default right now. That said a national GOP primary for speaker would probably solve this shenanigans we are seeing now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1714386836468924924)  2023-10-17T21:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DavidBaldwinson @HoCStaffer CPC [--] likely requires making ground in QC. Assuming CPC=22 in QC 43% nationally puts the CPC around 50% in anglo-Canada. It seems very unlikely to me we will see CPC much above 50% in anglo canada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BagelPolling/status/1714678317612183666)  2023-10-18T16:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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