#  @aryadeniz22 Arya Deniz Arya Deniz posts on X about $nvda, $amd, $axon, stocks the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1714446178631233536/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +11,813% - [--] Month [---------] +3,513% - [--] Months [---------] +348% - [--] Year [---------] +363% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1714446178631233536/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -16% - [--] Month [---] no change - [--] Months [---] +11% - [--] Year [---] +133% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1714446178631233536/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.70% - [--] Month [-----] +3.50% - [--] Months [-----] +43% - [--] Year [-----] +289% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1714446178631233536/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$nvda](/topic/$nvda), [$amd](/topic/$amd), [$axon](/topic/$axon), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [ai](/topic/ai), [investment](/topic/investment), [nvda](/topic/nvda), [$fnma](/topic/$fnma), [china](/topic/china), [$fico](/topic/$fico) **Top assets mentioned** [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)](/topic/$axon) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Vistra, Corp. (VST)](/topic/$vst) [Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)](/topic/$oscr) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Spacemesh (SMH)](/topic/$smh) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL)](/topic/$tpl) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR)](/topic/$kkr) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Teradyne, Inc. (TER)](/topic/$ter) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)](/topic/$apo) [Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)](/topic/$maa) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)](/topic/$ibkr) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "New thoughts: #Home Prices will drop as #Mortgage Rates drop in [----] This should translate to year-over-year price decline for #US #homes (new and existing) to a magnitude of [--] to 10% in 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/aryadeniz22/status/1730308947444167017) 2023-11-30T19:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Things Ill look for in the markets in 2024: 1) AI-based revenue generation 2) Capital flow in money markets 3) Proof of an exported recession ultimately helping the U.S. to avoid one 4) Fannie/Freddie becoming independent Ill update & revise this list - notes for myself" [X Link](https://x.com/aryadeniz22/status/1738621992297787890) 2023-12-23T18:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@sama 3% historically is the lowest interest rate that helps capitalism function without things getting wildly speculative - a little cost of capital but not too much" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1739364539664048397) 2023-12-25T19:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Breaking US Dollar Down What's the deal with #DXY The U.S. stands out as the best country in handling inflation. Investors question alternative currencies. The true safest investment product in the world: the U.S. Dollar" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1744138486897144061) 2024-01-07T23:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Some of my friends and I have been trying to understand what #SMCI does its a company ADFM is not invested in but track. With the help of #ChatGPT I got the following - think its helpful and wanted to share:" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1748777586220494875) 2024-01-20T18:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "#Super #Micro #Computer Inc. (SMCI) as a company thats like the architect and builder of powerful and efficient homes but instead of homes they create advanced computer systems. Here are the key points in simpler terms:" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1748777589504643582) 2024-01-20T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "AI is putting downward pressure on service inflation - everything has a reflexive relationship with inflation. When we share these thoughts we should quantify the magnitude. 2021/22 shipping shocks had +2% contribution to headline CPI and crash in prices had -1.5% $APO: ".higher transportation costs are putting upward pressure on goods inflation" https://t.co/vSkTt7bsm0 $APO: ".higher transportation costs are putting upward pressure on goods inflation" https://t.co/vSkTt7bsm0" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1749050643841429694) 2024-01-21T12:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Microsoft & Metaverse World of Warcraft (WoW) One of the few places where a very real trend (#AI) and a hype that can turn into a real trend (#Metaverse) meet in my opinion is the gaming world - specifically #WoW. @Warcraft @WarcraftDevs @Meta" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1749465146374725678) 2024-01-22T16:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Dollar (#DXY) taking off and relentlessly staying above [---] level is very concerning to me especially for companies that need financing. Yields are not budging despite rate cut talks and I am unsure how long companies ex Fortune-1000 can maintain their debt load" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1749823698935115848) 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Anyway my point is I think economy is not great at the moment. Big caps are fine. China stimulus is good news and should minimally help equities across the board in the short run" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1749823704077324457) 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "As a betting man I think Fed recognizes this and the speech in the next couple of days will address how restrictive real rates can be/are as 10-year real interest rate is above 200bps" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1749823705671254436) 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Looks like #QT is ending Fed balance sheet flatlined as of January [----] - great news. We will never know how to quantify this but I think the market will treat it like a rate cut. If the #Fed doesnt cut in March (its fine) - talking heads will emphasize this move More & more people are talking about slowdown in #QT (quantitative tightening). My take from 11/23 may be relevant - curious how thisll impact the credit markets. More & more people are talking about slowdown in #QT (quantitative tightening). My take from 11/23 may be relevant - curious how thisll impact the credit markets" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1750714485424177194) 2024-01-26T02:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1751275872877772945) 2024-01-27T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I dont really believe in mean reversion in the markets and this thought stems from lack of mean reversion in real life examples. Winners keep winning as evidenced by tonights game #lions #chiefs #SuperBowl" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1751797574904987995) 2024-01-29T02:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@nope_its_lily NPCs in games like World of Warcraft Grand Theft Auto etc. will become more & more realistic. Once enough players have interactions with NPCs that data will be uploaded to some sort of humanoid - voila" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752167095226310928) 2024-01-30T03:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "China Devaluing the Yuan - [----] (like in 2015) We all by now accepted the fact that after the most historic rate hike cycle by the Fed nothing is broken. While I agree that nothing is broken in the Western Hemisphere I believe in Asia things are quite different. The recent collapse of Chinas real estate market could potentially lead to the devaluation of its currency the Renminbi (RMB) a.k.a. Yuan (CNY) as the country grapples with financial instability and seeks to mitigate the economic impact. Chinas real estate market once a major driver of the countrys economic growth is currently facing" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752396761400803615) 2024-01-30T18:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "My takeaways from $AMD earnings: Vivek Arya asked the best question - and @LisaSu 's answer was great. Related to MI [---] - Lisa updated her revenue guidance from $2Bn to $3.5Bn (analysts ultimately expect something around $6Bn to $10Bn for the year). Historically Lisa is conservative when she talks about guidance but the following from Lisa is very valuable in my opinion: $3.5Bn already on the books by the end of January and the ability to produce SUBSTANTIALLY more" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752469358717087930) 2024-01-30T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "My takeaways from $MSFT earnings: Law of large numbers does not apply to this company they crushed it. Multiples praise etc. all are well deserved @satyanadella 💚" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752469637265047640) 2024-01-30T23:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "My takeaways from $GOOGL earnings: @sundarpichai is a legend in my opinion but he won't be there in the next [--] months. The company needs to surprise investors and the narrative is just not that great. Does this mean Google is a good short No it is not" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752470425236386173) 2024-01-30T23:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@munster_gene $AMD also - Lisa Sus increase in guidance from $2Bn to $3.5Bn was noteworthy and she said theres substantially more demand. I think in Q2 or Q3 well see the real ramp up just like weve seen at $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752525915324580132) 2024-01-31T02:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Based on $GOOGL and $MSFT data center CapEx commentary and (end of) cloud optimization - I think the following Q&A interaction between Vivek Arya & @LisaSu is very important. Big tech will want more chips and $AMD is ready to supply them along with $NVDA. Sell off post earnings is understandable but short sighted" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1752536916098965666) 2024-01-31T03:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Macro Thoughts I am [--] years old and grew up in Istanbul. I have not experienced 2000-2002 or 2008-2009 crises. However my trading experience in [----] and ongoing exposure to Turkey's hyperinflation provide a unique lens. Evaluating the U.S. challenges in isolation I acknowledge them but the global panorama covering Europe Russia China and India adds layers of complexity. The media's disproportionate focus on the U.S. negatives while sidelining global issues seems puzzling. My perspective stems from recognizing the nuanced relationships in the markets where relativity defines the landscape. I" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753054996109652217) 2024-02-01T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Positions Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: AMD is ADFMs largest position and I am hoping to keep it as the largest position for the coming decade. Dr. Lisa Su is a phenomenal manager; the team is at the heart of emerging and existing secular trends. However I wasnt in AMD because I anticipated the proliferation of generative AI this year. I was/am in this company because I read the book Titan by Ron Chernow. It is about the life of John D. Rockefeller. I wont get into all my takeaways from that book but a lot of people miss the mark about Mr. Rockefeller. Much like Mr. Rockefeller" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753055001138647288) 2024-02-01T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My takeaways from $AAPL earnings: People will look back at Apple's service revenue line and in the next [--] months as the stock rallies will say why didn't we buy Apple similar $META story. VisionPro Gen [--] [--] etc. will be owned by everyone in the Apple ecosystem" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753240297083974066) 2024-02-02T02:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810540147740785) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$MAA is a great company in a sector that is subject to many headwinds. In [----] the multifamily sector saw a record supply of new units with nearly [------] apartment units completed throughout the year. This was a 36-year high for the market. #2" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810541695406537) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The company has 102k apartment units $800M development pipeline and 3.4x net debt as of 09/30/23. #4" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810545084350820) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As you can see from the following $MAA has no issues related to occupancy as of 09/30/23. However lease trade-outs especially the new leases have been declining rapidly. New lease rents decline due to the record amount of supply I mentioned above. #5" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810547265483237) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As you can see the assets are concentrated across the sunbelt. The headline is interesting to me: "Unique Diversification and Balance" - well the entire portfolio is in multifamily so if there's a slowdown across the board it won't really matter where the asset is in. #6" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810549341593791) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I have been tracking occupancy rates across the country. In downtown #Dallas the vacancy rate for apartments built since [----] stands at 9.9%. In downtown #Fort #Worth the vacancy rate for the newest units is 17% as estimated by Partners Real Estate. #7" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810551518482942) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The new supply pipeline in #Atlanta currently includes more than [---] multifamily projects. Looking at projects currently under construction nearly [-----] units will be added to Atlanta's apartment stock in the coming years. #9 https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810555264000058) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Look at the rent growth (lack thereof) from the fourth quarter of [----]. Keep in mind the decline in rents in $MAA's key markets are happening during a period when labor markets were robust and a significant amount of supply was yet to be released. #10" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810557302342057) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "What I said above will impact every single #apartment #REIT. So why short $MAA specifically If you look at the table below you'll see that technically $MAA is weaker than its comps such as: $AVB $EQR $ESS $CPT and $UDR. #10" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810559051481134) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Looking at P/S and forward P/E alone - wouldn't you be a little suspicious as to why these companies trade at such high multiples I bet the assets owned by them are not marked to their true value. #11" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810560964030685) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "In @X format I am unsure how long these posts should be to keep you interested but at a high level what I said above are the reasons I am confident in shorting $MAA this year. As time passes I will be updating this post. This is obviously not an investment advice; I am just hoping to stress test my thoughts on this platform" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1753810562658480572) 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The emergence of #AI that proliferated in the past [--] months did indeed boost multiples on assets that are directly or tangentially correlated to the story. In public markets I am thinking $SMCI $AMD $NVDA $MSFT etc. Professional investors take is that generative AI is over-hyped. I think theres a reflexive relationship here. The negative feedback loop makes inherent sense to me. What was similar to the #AI story that captured the worlds attention lately Well it was #crypto. Now I think crypto truly has minimal use cases and is anti #USD. I am biased against it - with that said I spent years" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754220254820028437) 2024-02-04T19:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Reviewing my macro indicators My first two posts on Substack explained the macro indicators I check and they helped me time the bottom in the market in early November [----]. As you can see from the date of my tweet below these indicators are reliable (to me at least)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991478818975906) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "According to Nasdaq and DJIA Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports non-commercial buyers kicked off the rally in November. They have been buying over the past three months as commercial traders have been selling this trend is still intact. Blue line is non-commercial gray line is commercial and red line is non-reportable" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991481218089085) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio Index ($CPC) helps me in tracking the overall sentiment of options traders. Historically I would get scared when the put/call ratio hit below [------] and aggressive above [------]. However since [----] put/call ratio have stayed around [------] so this isnt a great signal for now" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991483533283568) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Nasdaq - Advance/Decline Issues Index ($NAAD) helps me assess the overall health of tech stocks. It looks healthy to me for now - nothing crazy" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991485726912805) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ptj_official and his team overlayed the [----] chart over Dow Jones during 1986-87 period and came to the realization that there was going to be a correction in the market. Applying a similar logic you can see the current SPX chart overlayed on the most recent SPX charts during presidential cycles. I didnt make this but found out about it while scraping Reddit. I find it helpful - this chart makes me concerned about the next sixty days. However reflexivity comes into play here. Based on the vibes I have been getting from investors everyone and their mothers are expecting a weak February and" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991494660772335) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "In short based on my macro indicators we are not at a euphoric or miserable spot in the U.S. equity market" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754991497013854358) 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@hmeisler I am seeing [----] according to $CPC - CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio (EOD) Index. Do you mind sharing your source and index you track" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1754996355989184830) 2024-02-06T22:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@BillAckman Congrats @BillAckman Are you hoping to get to the funds fair value with this move - European stocks almost always trade at a discount to fair value especially close end funds" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1755317558553481371) 2024-02-07T19:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Following up on this short report - $MAA had its earnings and the shares are down around 2.00%. The following from the report support my thesis: 1) Revenue up 2.1% operating expenses up 5.9% and NOI up 0.1% during Q4 [----]. 2) New LTOs declined 7.0% renewal LTOs increased 4.8% - total LTOs decreased 1.6% 3) Occupancy still at 95.5% #RealEstate #REIT #CommercialRealEstate I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1 I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1755602552815857718) 2024-02-08T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@sama 1000% - cant wait to experience version [--] [--] etc. Just like ChatGPT :)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1756072641549554145) 2024-02-09T21:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Hi All-in team I listened to this weeks pod and agree with your takes related to multifamily. You might find this short report related to one of the largest public multifamily REITs interesting - from a guy who used to be in the space @chamath @DavidSacks @Jasoncalacanis @friedberg" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1756106005237129621) 2024-02-10T00:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Are the Treasury and the Fed doing yield curve control Yes in a subtle way -------------------- Over the past couple of months we have witnessed a series of steps taken by US policymakers to alleviate the stresses observed at the long end of the US Treasury curve specifically the 10-Year UST. At the beginning of October [----] the Fed and the Treasury found themselves struggling to control yields which began to rise uncontrollably. By the end of the month several Fed speakers came out and mentioned that the bond market was essentially performing the Fed's job for them. At the time I didnt pay" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1756687942045618535) 2024-02-11T14:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Despite the subdued SPX movement today call options dominated trading comprising 60% of volume. Goldman Sachs estimates dealers hold a $7 billion long position in spot contracts set to expire by Friday potentially impacting market dynamics significantly" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757237987757175230) 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Reflexivity (in my opinion) suggests tomorrow could be the catalyst for a trend shift with funds positioning for potential market tops. The notable slowdown today in semiconductors and big tech while rally in IWM and financials were interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757237989443248635) 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Today was a position swap type of day. Covering of most shorted basket as precaution against cool CPI. Profit taking on megacaps by LO and HF. It was a heavy sell day in single names - but options tape is up 60% towards calls. Trend if kept intact is friend for now" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757237990730915885) 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "For the sake of typing stuff and not being explicit with my takes here it is If headline CPI starts with: - [--] market rockets - [--] market tanks. - [--] is noise" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757239525485506872) 2024-02-13T03:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "99% of the time I attribute things going my way to luck today is one of those 1% days where I feel like my decisions worked out thanks to good diligence (hedging in this case)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757432738687148298) 2024-02-13T15:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The following is a pretty big deal - should be picked up by news corps soon. $AMD Quietly Funded a Drop-In $CUDA Implementation Built on ROCm: It's Now Open-Source $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757770939507311084) 2024-02-14T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@OHWallStreet Its all relative legend" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757773751372939492) 2024-02-14T14:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Amidst the latest announcement ❖ DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks +12.018M Bbl In Wk; Seen +2.8M Bbl Just wanted to reshare my takes on oil #opec #Crudeoil #wti #brent Therell be a spike due to developments in the middle east. However the cude oil supply chain (especially light crude) changed so so much vs. the last time we experienced long lasting spike in oil prices. The US is shipping oil at record volume. Fringe #OPEC+ members are not Therell be a spike due to developments in the middle east. However the cude oil supply chain (especially light crude) changed so so much vs. the last time we" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757790191580745917) 2024-02-14T15:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@cantstopstupid1 I am - are you going to highlight him trimming some of his $NVDA shares" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1757927151666335806) 2024-02-15T00:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Pretty impressive and easy to envision multiple use cases thatd hit the bottom line relatively quickly. Thinking of $DIS $LIV $WYNN $MSFT (Activision Blizzard) $TTWO etc. here is sora our video generation model: https://t.co/CDr4DdCrh1 today we are starting red-teaming and offering access to a limited number of creators. @_tim_brooks @billpeeb @model_mechanic are really incredible; amazing work by them and the team. remarkable moment. here is sora our video generation model: https://t.co/CDr4DdCrh1 today we are starting red-teaming and offering access to a limited number of creators." [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1758207446781194699) 2024-02-15T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Cant wait to see people like you grave dancing on $NVDA and $AMD when theres a mild 5-10% correction. Hows cash and bonds youve been pitching to your clients trailing [--] months doing Wild that you still got a positive P&L to run your research shop Literal rage bait stuff Worth mentioning that [--] years later Cisco is still below its [----] high. Worth mentioning that [--] years later Cisco is still below its [----] high" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1758324167445754012) 2024-02-16T02:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Hell is coming - CPI and PPI came in HOT HOT HOT (off by less than [--] bps for both) Ignore top-line growth secular trends and global deflation occurring in Asia and Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1758487570466386207) 2024-02-16T13:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Based on browsing 'for you' for [--] minutes the following are my takeaways: 1) crude oil will hit $300/barrel 2) multiple wars across the globe will start tomorrow 3) U.S. [--] Year Treasury will hit 7% but might get to 20% 4) Everyone moves to Miami - NYC sucks 5) Nikki Haley" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1759674080775565543) 2024-02-19T20:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "My understanding is $AMD has figured out a way to make GPUs that have faster inference with 50% lower price than that of $NVDA. Honestly I don't think GPU prices decreasing is a net negative for the AI theme. These chips are hardware and overtime prices should decrease. $NVDA $AMD etc. will just find ways to improve their software revenues just like how Apple crushes it in their services segment. Private investments these semi companies are making would be interesting to track. I can't enter those investments at my size but you should be able to get in contact with most" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1760695261360279809) 2024-02-22T15:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Citrini7 I am walking around UES on Madison Avenue thinking why fintech has not rallied over the past [--] months - thats something that could be interesting. One of the last sub sectors that hasnt moved. I am thinking $SQ $PYPL $AFRM etc etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1760828827041722481) 2024-02-23T00:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Citrini7 I am also thinking why defense sector is not moving. Thinking $LMT $RTX etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1760831694611890229) 2024-02-23T00:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Advanced Micro Devices $AMD Deep Dive As for me I like the stock ----------------------------- In recent years the pace of technological progress has been nothing short of astounding. Gone are the days when references to futuristic films of old like Blade Runner elicited musings about flying cars. As someone straddling the line between millennial and Gen Y I find myself captivated by the futuristic films of today - one example being the nuanced portrayals of artificial intelligence such as in Spike Jonze's Her. The notion of an artificial companion a voice serving as a solitary presence" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1761058816873861419) 2024-02-23T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Money coming out of $GOOG will flow into $AAPL and itll have its technical breakout to the upside - watch" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1762189898247811164) 2024-02-26T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The number of bankruptcies in private equity assets will skyrocket if the yields on the long end stay above 4.00%. Currently LTVs are around 40-60% so the equity cushion is 5-10x higher than the days before [----]. First article on Bloomberg about a brand name institution or private equity shop with mark to market losses that need to be crystallized and we are cutting 25bps. This is getting silly China is in recession - yuan is at levels last seen in [----]. Half of Europe is in recession and latin America is in inflationary spiral. Finally Im not saying this in the hopes that cuts will translate" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1762564995840139532) 2024-02-27T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Currently the landscape for public banks appears incredibly challenging as the mark-to-market losses on their hold-to-maturity debt could potentially place them in bankruptcy. And Im not talking about $NYCB I am talking about banks like $BAC This means that if these banks were to realize these losses and adjust their balance sheets accordingly they would find themselves in a position where the total value of their debt surpasses the current market value of their assets. What are we even talking about right now Dont market participants realize what is going on" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1762568418706743352) 2024-02-27T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy Energy longs are the same but off the rails :) at least uranium is recovering a little bit. Do you review price action in US Dollar vs other currencies and 10-year UST" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1762708578308092166) 2024-02-28T05:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It is also not irresponsible at all to have 40% in a high conviction bet given you hedge going i to binary events Im sure @altcap and team did. As Mr. Druckenmiller says if you find something good bet the ranch on it and watch it carefully. Thats how you deliver xxx% returns like Altimeter did last year" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763238399039721620) 2024-02-29T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ADFM Investor Letter February [----] +18.84% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope February brought you good health joy and prosperity much like it did for me. Year to date ADFM has seen a 18.84% appreciation proving that my efforts are paying off. In comparison key market indices such as the S&P [---] Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite Nasdaq [---] Russell [----] and FTSE [---] have registered gains of 6.84% 3.47% 7.20% 7.24% 1.37% and -0.66% respectively. Even without access to allocator databases I'm confident that ADFM's YTD performance ranks among the top hedge funds globally. You" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763544668069941744) 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Macro Thoughts My bearish macro stance remains firm as long as the U.S. Dollar ($DXY) holds above $102 and persistent yields continue to pose challenges. The January CPI and PPI numbers only add to this frustration. However the ongoing economic slowdown in key countries such as Germany the UK and Japan leads me to believe that the global inflationary pressures are easing. This in turn should support the positive trend in the U.S. market. Reflecting on insights from George Soros's "The Alchemy of Finance" a strong economy coupled with a central bank's efforts to combat inflation through" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763544671714677241) 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: NVIDIA's recent earnings report showcased remarkable growth with a staggering 265% increase in revenues and a 769% surge in net income year over year. This outstanding financial performance was reflected in the market as NVIDIA's market capitalization soared adding an AMD in afterhours. AMD is the singular semiconductor company poised to challenge NVIDIA's market dominance. Lisa Su's leadership has led AMD to outperform Intel in the CPU competition marking a significant shift in the industry landscape. What sets AMD apart is it doesn't necessarily" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763544675539894299) 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Short Positions Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund $XLE: Exxon and Chevron have recently underperformed showing minimal returns since November [----] while the S&P [---] increased by 15%. Geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's influence on oil prices have unfolded differently than expected a deviation I had anticipated. With oil supply remaining robust and major economies signaling slower growth the outlook for oil companies appears less optimistic. The weakened financials at both firms align with soft energy commodity markets particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in [----]. Looking forward" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763544679079928312) 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Final Thoughts I've created ADFM's logo now featured at the top right of this and all future correspondence. It's a simple yet meaningful design where a straight 'A' and a sideways 'D' come together to form a sailboat. While hedge funds typically don't need logos I thought it would be cool to have one. With my last name Deniz translating to 'sea' in English the sailboat motif embodies this connection. This logo adds a personal touch to the company and it has received a thumbs-up from Ezmira my sister and design idol. Recently I went to Bemelmans at the Carlyle and I just love that place. I" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763544685832732978) 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bump - $NYCB The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763565523839684765) 2024-03-01T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@eladgil @AMD This is pretty big thanks for recording & sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763680881162559791) 2024-03-01T21:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RyanDetrick @YahooFinance [--] year cumulative returns exceeding 100% implies a bubble sounded great at the Compound - bet it is an adage thatll be used by investors in the coming years" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763935430007767534) 2024-03-02T14:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Is my put/call metric wrong I am seeing put/call ratio (EOD) at [----] This is $CPC - CBOE Options Total Put/Call (EOD) INDX Total Put/Call Ratio drops to [----] the lowest level since December [--] [----] 👀 Retail continues to YOLO calls. https://t.co/xohM9bGUxQ Total Put/Call Ratio drops to [----] the lowest level since December [--] [----] 👀 Retail continues to YOLO calls. https://t.co/xohM9bGUxQ" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1763969850957877274) 2024-03-02T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AravSrinivas $AMD will fix the issue - give it like [--] quarters. RocM should be fine too by then" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1764144907608891873) 2024-03-03T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The fintech sector is emerging from the doghouse. Weve observed decent performance across the board with companies like $STNE $SOFI and $SQ showing positive trends. Even some of the previously unpopular entities such as $PYPL stopped going down - so they go up" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1764415286663340088) 2024-03-03T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1764708765918470402) 2024-03-04T17:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The way $TLT is moving and 10-year dropping below 4.20% are related to $NYCB in my opinion Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1765007519649276082) 2024-03-05T13:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "For people who are curious (thought of the actually meme haha): a $10 increase in depreciation reduces net income by $10 on the income statement. On the balance sheet accumulated depreciation increases by $10 and on the cash flow statement there is a $10 increase in cash flow from operating activities because depreciation is a non-cash expense that is added back to net income when calculating operating cash flow" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1765156951682363690) 2024-03-05T23:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@altcap It is surprising to me to watch someone as sophisticated as him without acknowledging global slowdowns/recessions in China Germany Japan Russia - in isolation the US is very strong but rates/currencies should be observed in relation to one-another" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1766914495295680628) 2024-03-10T19:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@IbrahimAjami Ibrahim merhaba - does Mubadala invest with emerging l/s equity hedge funds What you said above would work best working with young managers who have high conviction . The way most SWFs consider allocating capital creates a reflexive dynamic where largest funds get larger -" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1766928014867124691) 2024-03-10T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One of my long positions discussed below Ranpak $PACK is up 50%+ after its quarterly earnings. It feels so good to be right and see the results on the scoreboard After going my own way to launch a l/s equity hedge fund I thought how I should communicate with LPs. Some investors share quarterly memos some share monthly updates with just a paragraph. For the time being I am updating LPs monthly related to my macro thoughts positions life etc. Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: NVIDIA's recent earnings report showcased remarkable growth with a staggering 265% increase in revenues and a" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1767662739055431903) 2024-03-12T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long $SQ and short $PYPL looks like the fintech pair-trade of the year" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1767738764774781061) 2024-03-13T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Since this post $CG is up 16% one of the best performers in financials I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle https://t.co/09ph2ZpsPV I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle https://t.co/09ph2ZpsPV" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1767898982196371470) 2024-03-13T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Pair Trade Idea: Long Block $SQ Short PayPal $PYPL The Fintech sector is one of the last sectors that is significantly below [----] highs. At a high level fintech (finance and technology) staying below [----] highs make sense" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1767960120166695121) 2024-03-13T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@robkhenderson John D Rockefeller Henry Flagler Saladin Ayyubi Max Fisher (businessman) Robert A. Faith George Soros" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1769137158693015760) 2024-03-16T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Looking ahead I would keep an eye on the next couple of quarters: $AMD might surprise with revenue growth (as anticipated) while $NVDA could face headwinds as sales slowdown The emerging narrative $AMD nibbling at $NVDA margins much like it did with $INTC on the CPU side Jensen Huang - $NVDA CEO threw shade at $AMD today at Jim Cramer's show. Kind of interesting isn't it The profit taking makes sense drawdowns happen but the trend is intact - [----] traumatized a lot of semi-investors so whenever there's a drawdown it is amplified is my $0.02 Jensen Huang - $NVDA CEO threw shade at $AMD today" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1770121813047054793) 2024-03-19T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Commercial Real Estate CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) Commercial real estate CLOs are going to be the next discussion point in the coming weeks to stress the distress in the property market that is directly tied to bank balance sheets #FED" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1770136494772019574) 2024-03-19T17:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Hot take: Just like how the market priced out aggressive Fed rate cuts over the past [--] months it will increase the odds of cycle rate cuts as fast over the coming months" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1773138115751731437) 2024-03-28T00:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Macro Thoughts My bearish macro stance remains persistent as long as the U.S. Dollar $DXY maintains a position above $102 coupled with persistent challenges posed by rising yields.I was expecting relatively poor January and February CPI/PPI numbers to be highlighted by the Fed chair Jerome Powell during FOMC. Mr. Powell recognized the spike but he reiterated that the deflationary trend is still intact I agree with him. However amidst this there is a silver lining as shelter costs contributed to lifting prices last month although housing inflation did slow down after a surge in January. The" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1775585962443096226) 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD Fundamentals: $NVDA's recent GTC conference made a significant impact with CEO Jensen Huang's remarks about $AMD during his CNBC interview raising eyebrows and prompting speculation about underlying concerns. He basically said $NVDA is very different than $AMD why did he have a reason to diss on AMD Time will tell. One key distinction is in peak floating-point performance where $NVDA's GPUs typically outperform $AMD's. This is crucial for heavy AI workloads. However $AMD GPUs excel in integer arithmetic operations making them suitable for simpler" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1775585966536745032) 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Short Positions RTX Corp $RTX Fundamentals: Over the past month the company received a positive outlook from analysts with a notable upgrade by Wells Fargo citing the potential for RTXs engine issues to diminish as the year progresses. This optimism is rooted in the expectation that the groundings related to the Pratt & Whitney engine issue will peak soon and the stock will respond favorably as this phase of the problem recedes. Additionally theres anticipation for improved margins in the defense business due to changing government needs leading to a better sales mix. Concerns: $RTX faces" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1775585968680013849) 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CorneliaLake I went to Duke joined Greystar out of undergrad (RE private equity) quit launched my L/S equity hedge fund. As a practitioner who is in the game right now my $0.02 would be: if you want to go your own way no one is going to tell you it is a good time to do so -" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1775715580114350580) 2024-04-04T02:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "If the U.S. bank balance sheets were fully marked to market it would reveal that most banks are underwater with their liabilities exceeding the current market value of their assets. We are running into a credit event while pontificating on 0.1% changes in employment and CPI" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1776325711378133055) 2024-04-05T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMD Sentiment: Over the past six weeks sentiment around Advanced Micro Devices has shifted. I have been trying to figure out the catalysts behind price actions and believe the following are key: 1) $MSFT MI300X Deployment Cuts: Some analysts have raised concerns about potential cuts in Microsofts deployment of AMDs MI300X processors. However I haven't seen a credible news source providing details about this concern. The broader market dynamics and AMDs diversified product portfolio should be considered. 2) Samsungs HBM3 Supply for MI300X: There has been anxiety regarding Samsungs High" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1778462963667534244) 2024-04-11T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JonahLupton $AMD" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1778926285693022322) 2024-04-12T23:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@JonahLupton @JuhiJain The company is in a phenomenal position best CPU designer with a strong GPU framework - its software is weak compared to that of $NVDA but the fact that AMD decided to go open source should over time hopefully boosts sales. I shared it due to short term price action" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1778948412697669632) 2024-04-13T00:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly letter from Arya 04/13/24 Energy Iran-Israel Dynamics Amidst the Russian-Ukrainian War: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a multifaceted issue with broad implications that extend well beyond the borders of these two nations. In the Middle East where geopolitical alliances often shift in response to global events there have been noticeable changes as well. One of the key developments has been the growing significance of the Jerusalem-Baku partnership. This partnership has gained prominence due to Azerbaijan's role as a primary energy supplier to Israel providing" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779165098088505447) 2024-04-13T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is great news - keep in mind Iran is not beloved by most Muslim nations due to the Shia-Sunni divide. Iran's Shia identity contrasts with many Sunni-majority countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia the UAE and Bahrain. These differences have fueled conflicts in countries like Syria Yemen and Iraq where sectarian dynamics play a significant role alongside broader geopolitical considerations. JUST IN According to Israeli sources several Arab countries have conveyed readiness to intercept any airborne threats directed towards Israel. Via @kann_news JUST IN According to Israeli" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779258532648366230) 2024-04-13T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CG Private equity laggard has new management cheap on a multiple basis earnings recovery $AXON Defense spend across districts will increase as citizens acknowledge the importance of security and non-intrusive surveillance $PACK Terrible balance sheet but it is 6:1 levered and didnt go bankrupt - rate cuts happen and this is an easy double $AMD MI300x sales surprise buy side expectations PC and console recovery starts ROCm software opens up to public and becomes Android of chip software chiplet adoption increases" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779577015340806231) 2024-04-14T18:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2) #CPU Game: In the CPU arena AMD isn't just a contender; they're leading the charge. Ryzen and EPYC processors have shaken up the market keeping Intel on its toes and ensuring fierce competition that benefits consumers" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779704390774862045) 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3) #GenerativeAI Game: When it comes to AI $AMD isn't playing second fiddle. Unlike scenarios dominated by tech giants AMD's diverse solutions offer options and prevent monopolies. As AI expands AMD's hardware will be in high demand across industries. While TPUs and ASICs have their strengths AMD's chip design shines with superior performance and energy efficiency" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779704392297419008) 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) #MI300 vs. #B100: AMD's MI300X outshines NVIDIA's H100 with 30% better FP8 calculations and nearly 2.5x superior performance in HPC-centric tasks. NVIDIA's sparse performance is 2.67x faster. In memory and bandwidth MI300X boasts 192GB of HBM3 memory with 5.2TBps bandwidth surpassing NVIDIA's H100. Meanwhile Blackwell [---] excels with a 2.8TB/sec faster memory bandwidth but slightly lower FP64 tensor core performance than MI300X. AMD dominates in double precision earning supercomputing awards while NVIDIA shines in lower precision tasks" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779704393979367797) 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I am not saying $AMD is better than $NVDA or $AVGO - I just find this doomerism against $AMD funny and silly" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1779704395661267218) 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Another bank goes under CPI surprise to the downside and we price in 3+ rate cuts over the summer BREAKING: Fed's Kashkari had said: The Fed could potentially wait until [----] to lower rates. BREAKING: Fed's Kashkari had said: The Fed could potentially wait until [----] to lower rates" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1781058454561477084) 2024-04-18T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@altcap Compute is the oil of 21st century - without the hardware developed by the likes of $AMD and $NVDA - without semi equipment and manufacturers like $ASML and $TSM we wouldnt talk about any of the exciting developments thatre in the public discourse - were lucky to be alive rn" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1781323869636137250) 2024-04-19T14:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Weekly letter from Arya 04/23/24 Real Estate Peak Private Credit: Private credit firms have been in a strong position lately as noted by Blackstone president Jonathan Gray last year while banks have faced challenges due to a significant rise in interest rates the sharpest in [--] years. In [----] these non-bank lenders funded a remarkable 86% of leveraged loans a significant increase from 61% in [----] according to PitchBook LCD. However following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse the leading banks are now increasing their lending in the broadly syndicated bank loan markets a" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1782848621479596322) 2024-04-23T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Weekly letter from Arya 04/23/24 Semis Semiconductor Arms Race: The Biden administration is actively encouraging US tech companies to pursue artificial intelligence deals and collaborations in the United Arab Emirates aiming to establish an alliance that would provide a competitive advantage over China in AI development. Microsoft recently announced a $1.5Bn investment in G42 an Abu Dhabi-based AI group chaired by influential Emirati royal Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed al-Nahyan marking Microsoft's latest significant investment in AI. The deal between Microsoft and G42 was finalized after a series" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1782848623895564773) 2024-04-23T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Some thoughts about potential $AMD and $AAPL partnership: Apple is actively planning its #data #center #AI infrastructure weighing various options for implementation. One potential avenue is to rent compute in the cloud although the user posits that smaller providers may have an advantage here as Apple may be hesitant to grant large competitors access to its sensitive data. This perspective is informed by one of my contact's experiences working for a smaller company that provided #Apple cloud services which ended abruptly when a larger competitor (a rival of Apple) acquired them leading to" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1786214344025329951) 2024-05-03T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Shelter is the largest component in CPI that is experiencing outright deflation not disinflation - deflation Yet the narrative shifted from several rate cuts to none and we might be in a stagflationary environment. We are not and inflationary pressures are rolling over. For the eighth consecutive month U.S. rents dropped on an annual basis in March falling by 0.3% according to a report from https://t.co/z7bwkWTkA1 . @MansionGlobal #CPI https://t.co/wyRV34VMh4 https://t.co/7KQ8lpdiwW For the eighth consecutive month U.S. rents dropped on an annual basis in March falling by 0.3% according to a" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1786365702560952505) 2024-05-03T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@boazweinstein @BlackRock @boazweinstein - you should check out press Fs in the chat meme because this diss is bigger than Drake / Kendrick thing right now" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1786943754470892021) 2024-05-05T02:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Investors looking back in less than [--] months will look incredibly silly for not entering $AMD at these levels Nvidia and AMD have reserved all of TSMCs CoWoS and SoIC advanced packaging capacity for [----] and [----] for HPC (high performance computing) related chips media report prompting TSMC to further expand capacity with CoWoS seen at [-----] to [-----] wafers per month by the end of Nvidia and AMD have reserved all of TSMCs CoWoS and SoIC advanced packaging capacity for [----] and [----] for HPC (high performance computing) related chips media report prompting TSMC to further expand capacity with" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1787460832357413202) 2024-05-06T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ADFM Investor Letter April [----] -2.95% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope April brought you good health joy and prosperity. As of May [--] [----] ADFM returns stood at -2.95% contrasting with positive gains in major indices: S&P [---] (+8.61%) Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.09%) NASDAQ Composite (+8.91%) Nasdaq [---] (+7.53%) Russell [----] (+1.66%) and FTSE [---] (+7.38%). April proved to be a challenging month as my reliance on AMD backfired despite my efforts to position ADFM for a banner year. My main mistake was allowing my fundamental bias to overshadow the technical developments (price" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1788041755067023534) 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Macro Thoughts I want to touch briefly on a significant development in China and dedicate the rest of this section to the Fed's recent FOMC meeting last week. Regarding China the drawdown in real estate values is accelerating faster than in [----]. Residential real estate volumes plummeted to approximately 75M square meters per month in late [----] down from 140M per month in [----] marking a 46% volume decline in just two years.In [----] China saw a total of 1.8Bn square meters of residential real estate sold with only 1.1Bn solda level not seen since the [----] financial crisis. Turning to the FOMC" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1788041757185163744) 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $AMD Fundamentals: For the quarter AMD reported revenue of $5.5Bn marking a 2% increase from the previous year. This figure slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's guidance range of $5.4Bn and was slightly ahead of the Street consensus. AMD's CEO Lisa Su highlighted strong growth in the data center business with revenue up 80% compared to the previous year and client revenue increasing by 85%.However the company experienced weaker demand in gaming which was down by 48% year-on-year and embedded chips which saw a 46% decline. At the beginning" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1788041761211777172) 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Short Positions Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund $XLE Fundamentals: Crude oil had its worst week since January with futures dropping 7.0%. ExxonMobil and Chevron recently experienced a downturn in their first-quarter profits potentially marking the end of their period of high earnings driven by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Both companies had benefited from increased energy prices due to the conflict resulting in substantial returns to shareholders and strategic acquisitions. However lower natural gas prices and narrower oil refinery margins negatively impacted their earnings in the first" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1788041763782873254) 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Until the late 1980s Buffett and Munger focused more on the investments segment. Since then they have shifted their focus to developing earnings from non-insurance operations. However Buffett has acknowledged that Berkshire's past record cannot be duplicated or approached due to the company's large base of assets and earnings. (11/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052750878703816) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Excluding insurance operations Berkshire's earnings per share declined by 4.4% in [----] due to the performance of BNSF (railroad) and BHE (energy). The Alleghany acquisition and additional equity investments in Occidental Petroleum and Pilot helped offset this decline. Berkshire's non-insurance businesses can be further divided into four segments: insurance BNSF BHE and manufacturing service and retail. (12/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052752720105589) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In [----] insurance underwriting had an after-tax profit of $5.4 billion corresponding to a less than zero cost of average float. Over the last [--] years Berkshire has had a lower cost of funding compared to the 10-year Treasury yield with the cost of float being below zero in [--] out of those [--] years. This means that Berkshire's insurance operations have been able to generate funds at a cost lower than alternative sources of funding often at no cost (negative cost of float). (13/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052754552930610) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "GEICO rebounded in [----] with $3.6Bn in pre-tax earnings. GEICO focused more on profitability than growth decreasing advertising spending and active policies to avoid writing unprofitable business. BH Primary had an underwriting profit of $1.4Bn while BHRG had an underwriting profit of $1.9Bn aided by low catastrophe events compared to the previous year. BHRG's underwriting profit in [----] marked the second year it turned a pre-tax profit since [----]. (14/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052756910137409) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The insurance float has been used for investments in equity and fixed-income securities generating investment income. Pre-tax investment income increased to $11.6Bn in [----] a 50% year-over-year growth primarily driven by a 261% increase in interest income due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Berkshire owned about $130Bn in T-bills at the end of [----] which at a 5% yield would generate a running yield of approximately $6.5Bn. (15/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052761712705741) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While I hope that Buffett and his investment managers will make an "elephant" acquisition with the potential to earn 15% on invested capital in the long run I am uncertain if such an opportunity will arise given the current 5% T-bill return excluding future mark-to-market potential. (16/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1790052765596549134) 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@AntoineGara @FD I just read the article loved it. There are plenty of private real estate shops that are experiencing similar issues in various funds - I reckon this trend will last for a prolonged period of time. Public REITs are in 50%+ drawdowns whereas private REITs are down 10% - comical" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1791098127732150533) 2024-05-16T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "From ChatGPT-4o. Magic - this is wild. $NVDA $AMD" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1791636837447999727) 2024-05-18T01:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Beth_Kindig Hey Beth do you have any earnings predictions for $ADI and $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1792239723613651328) 2024-05-19T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The ongoing trade tensions with major partners like the US have further dampened demand for Chinese exports. In Q1 [----] China's exports declined by 7.5% year-over-year reflecting the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1792742683167133958) 2024-05-21T02:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The real estate sector continues to struggle with oversupply and high debt levels. Several major developers have faced financial difficulties raising concerns about potential spillover effects on the broader economy" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1792742684756774993) 2024-05-21T02:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Key highlight from $NVDA earnings call - I don't think I have significant edge over individuals who cover this stock except for the following key factor: Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital Expenditures One key factor that may not have been fully priced into NVIDIA's stock was the capital expenditure plans of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) on GPU technology. SWFs are not solely focused on achieving 10%+ IRRS. Rather their priority is ensuring national technological sovereignty and survival in an increasingly AI-driven world. $NVDA $AMD $INTC $ARM $AVGO" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1793390129492451393) 2024-05-22T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy Public REITs down 70%+ and private comps are barely marking down asset prices - their trade outs are negative occupancy declining. Its so frustrating they are contributing to the problem theyre suffering the most from yet calling it how it is too much for those shops" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1793987998415237152) 2024-05-24T12:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Recent developments in private REITs + AAA bond defaults should have a bigger impact on treasuries than the movement in Fed-watch tool and Goldmans take on rate cut timing. $TLT $SPX $QQQ ❖ GOLDMAN SACHS NOW SEES FEDS FIRST RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER VS JULY ❖ GOLDMAN SACHS NOW SEES FEDS FIRST RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER VS JULY" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1793993344428671306) 2024-05-24T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly letter from Arya 05/24/24 Energy My thoughts: We have seen the top in crude oil for the rest of the year. Amidst election season coupled with weaking consumers across the globe I dont see production costs compensating for the drop in demand. Moreover technicals will come into play as they do for each commodity and WTI is about to break below the 200-DMA. Finally many OPEC members like Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq and Kuwait can produce oil at exceptionally low costs of around $25 per barrel or less. This allows them to remain profitable even if prices decline moderately. OPEC+ Production" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1794071167839457286) 2024-05-24T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly letter from Arya 05/24/24 Real Estate My thoughts: The disconnect between the steep declines in public REIT valuations and the lack of corresponding markdowns in private real estate asset valuations concerns me in the current market environment. Public REITs have seen massive selloffs with some down over 70% from their peaks. However private real estate funds and asset managers have been much slower to mark down the values of their property holdings to reflect market realities. Unlike public REITs private funds do not have to constantly mark-to-market their asset values. Appraisals can" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1794071170590937143) 2024-05-24T18:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Citrini7 Ex multiglad holy paladin checking in as soon as I learned how to play mage and got glad with RMP in BFA/SL performance in the market changed (night elf - meld is OP)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1794323760142815640) 2024-05-25T11:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ADeermount Sick callout bro - check Vornado SL Green Empire State Realty Trust etc. :)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1794572919475192238) 2024-05-26T03:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "There is liquidity in private equity but not at the prices GPs need to realize decent IRRs. This narrative is going to get more popular over the coming months Hedge funds hit by lack of private equity exits via @ft https://www.ft.com/content/62b1db7b-3e78-47ca-865e-02cc404915f0 https://www.ft.com/content/62b1db7b-3e78-47ca-865e-02cc404915f0" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1794762525185364166) 2024-05-26T16:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I admire him and theres a lot to learn from his story - especially [----] to [----] period. There are several things that differentiate Citadel vs. other shops like Soros Fund Mgmt and Duquesne (these are the two I admire and are included in my PPM). 1) Management Fees: Ken figured out the infrastructure cost to maintain a multi-strat hedge fund cannot be compensated by 2% AM fees so used pass-through method similar in real estate defined as cost-plus 2) Multi-manager: Ken initially operated like the old timers but the modern pod-shop dynamic made Citadel legendary like Point72 Millennium etc. In" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1795167404697219419) 2024-05-27T18:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Isnt Vine the original TikTok" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1795169826039636321) 2024-05-27T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@calvinfroedge Inflation narrative is over in the market just like the economy the world is tilting towards services as goods get commoditized. The US is turning into Switzerland but instead of banking tech is leading. Goodwill is scary to underwrite due to its arcane nature - not bad tho" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1795258060640002058) 2024-05-28T00:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@dagrauna @calvinfroedge Yeah thats a hard no - but keep investing with that take market needs investors like you" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1795266056132645345) 2024-05-28T01:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What is behind the Fed National Financial Conditions Index The easing of the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index suggests a loosening of financial conditions which the media is likely to highlight in the coming months. https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1795282364697858332) 2024-05-28T02:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JonahLupton $SQ is the real sleeper man I think thats a quick double when it starts to move - management is frank and truthful [--] lift from crypto exposure YTD and [--] fwd P/E with improving margins. Sad to see $AMD drop-off from your list :)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1796952150993412245) 2024-06-01T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMD #Computex started. some highlights:" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1797451493714358312) 2024-06-03T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "EPYC CPU share at 33% share. Zen [--] based EPYC CPU has [---] 3nm cores. Ill tell you this is Zen 5c even though she hasnt mentioned that yet. Will launch this year" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1797460018213917099) 2024-06-03T02:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "AMD GPU roadmap is going to be updated annually and the semiconductor alone is orders of magnitude stronger than top competitors. They just need to figure out ROCm and would absolutely evolve into a dynamic where NVDA could be Apple vs. AMD like Google (closed/open)" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1797463526224933032) 2024-06-03T03:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy Wonder if this is one of the reasons behind drop in bond yields across the globe in addition to the beginning of global rate cut cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1798530410311241910) 2024-06-06T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1799845377903849572) 2024-06-09T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AAPL soldoff after #WWDC but then it didnt The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1800677031228649748) 2024-06-11T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "and investors are selling $AMD - the most obvious semi trade heading into 2nd half TSMC has already started buying equipment for two CoWoS advanced packaging plants to be built in Chiayi Taiwan despite that construction cannot begin until an environmental assessment is finished media report citing unnamed industry sources. TSMC is also surveying land for a TSMC has already started buying equipment for two CoWoS advanced packaging plants to be built in Chiayi Taiwan despite that construction cannot begin until an environmental assessment is finished media report citing unnamed industry" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1800743045849330009) 2024-06-12T04:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Macro Thoughts In this section I will share one of my Twitter/X posts from June [--] [----] and try to analyze Jerome Powell's political conundrum. I wrote the following on Twitter/X before the release of the China and U.S. inflation reports. Since I shared these thoughts U.S. bonds across the curve are down [--] basis points. Link to the post: Volcker is revered as the best Fed chair ever for his resolute stance against inflation even at the cost of a recession. In contrast Burns is not highly regarded for allowing inflation to spiral out of control in the 1970s. Powell's primary concern at this" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1802341761152389350) 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $AMD Fundamentals: AMD should perform quite well going forward. Over the last twelve months the embedded segment shrank by $1 billion due to COVID-related oversupply issues that are just hitting now while the gaming segment contracted by $1.1 billion typical of the console cycle after the initial surge in sales following the PS5 launch. However the embedded segment has likely bottomed out with AMD guiding for a flat quarter-over-quarter performance in Q2 and growth expected for the rest of the year. The gaming segment may experience one more" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1802341765480861865) 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Short Positions You can put my silver energy sector gold miner and Ali Baba shorts into the same bucket. ADFM is currently short $SLV $XLE $GDXJ and $BABA based on the following thesis. The parabolic move in metals year-to-date has a strong fundamental backdrop. However I believe this is now turning into a proxy for a China recovery play which I don't think will happen over the next couple of quarters. Furthermore the 3%+ drop in crude oil prices after OPEC's crude oil price cuts gave me confidence that the current concern is about a global economic slowdown rather than a lack of supply in an" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1802341768379134174) 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Options $AAPL Jan [--] [--] $200 Call: Top call option idea for the rest of the year. $TLT Jan [--] [--] $97 Call: Second call option idea for the rest of the year. $AMD Jan [--] [--] $180 Call: Small snapback bet. $SQ Jan [--] [--] $80 Call: A little leverage over core long holding. $LULU Jan [--] [--] $400 Call: Earnings play. $DELL Jan [--] [--] $195 Call: Earnings play" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1802341769964646744) 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@assfacecapital Definitely the highest risk/reward play in the semi space - question is almost any other top $SMH component is overbought. If there is a drawdown can $AMD avoid the damage Hard to tell. It is a very frustrating position to hold has been in the past and still is" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1803120954018590733) 2024-06-18T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy China and the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1803634273179615569) 2024-06-20T03:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Apple is the 'Standard Oil' of AI space $AAPL" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1804918951899545978) 2024-06-23T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y Not at all youd look at forward multiples and effectively justify whether those make sense. Watch @TruthGundlach in [----] used to say equities look cheap compared to bonds Yields imply the top for multiples. In a 2% world 50x would be fine and anything below would be great" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1808281977587429801) 2024-07-02T23:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Block Inc. (Square $SQ) Forward P/E - 15.20x PEG ratio - 1.43x P/S - 1.77x Next year EPS (expected) - +28.87% Q1 was the company's best quarter ever. Yet the stock is down 10% YTD and 75%+ from its ATHs. One of those easy buys that'll look obvious in hindsight" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1809290613386539071) 2024-07-05T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 Vistra $VST Quanta $PWR and AECOM $ACM" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810490765824376881) 2024-07-09T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Citrini7 The company should have some humility when the likes of $MSFT $AAPL $META and the most visionary minds alive are heavily betting on the trend. Love Wall Street trying to put everything into 10-20 forward P/E and calling it a day saying over/under valued" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810503828195688652) 2024-07-09T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ZaStocks Had an incredible Q1 earnings too itll run and itll run hard when investors re-explore the fintech space" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810660908374409451) 2024-07-09T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CorneliaLake Not selling is the hardest part of the game - having concentration constrains is terribly bad when you have major winners As Druckenmiller says go for the jugular if you have conviction Hopefully the fund manager can convince LPs that concentration is good companies is fine" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810711580746686529) 2024-07-09T16:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Another company that is a no-brainer at these levels: Carlyle Group Inc. ( $CG ) Forward P/E - 9.02x P/FCF - 10.63x Next year EPS - +14.50% One of the four public PE companies with a new CEO - Harvey Schwartz who was gunning for $GS CEO position" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810745726235984126) 2024-07-09T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Private equity fund performance breakdown:" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810747903503454553) 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Private equity fund performance breakdown (cont'd):" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810747907303428540) 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Private credit fund performance:" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810747909916201429) 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BillAckman 88% permanent capital is incredible - goals (long term) I know it's not a priority for the team right now but some color on SPARC would be very cool - maybe one of the big LPs ask about it and you can share your take over time on X" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810781519549440125) 2024-07-09T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "From the prospectus for people who are interested in SPARC - @BillAckman designed and created it as a response to lacking qualities of SPACs a new form of acquisition company. The Manager also formed SPARC a Delaware corporation for the purpose of effecting a merger capital stock exchange asset acquisition stock purchase reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses. SPARC filed its Form S-1 Registration Statement (the SPARC Registration Statement) with the SEC on November [--] [----] and on September29 [----] the SPARC Registration Statement was declared effective by" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1810785620257599793) 2024-07-09T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The upcoming big cap tech earnings. I was going to post this on my substack but Im in the park right now and had a revelation so wanted to send it. Check the $MAGS ETF (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) - what do you see A selloff heading into prior earnings. $SPY $QQQ $IWM" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1811516548122599888) 2024-07-11T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What investors should want is for this Mag [--] selloff to continue and technicals to get digested to prepare for the next leg-up. I am expecting the drawdown to continue tomorrow and early next week as small caps/long end US treasuries keep rallying $MSFT $AAPL $NVDA $TSLA $AMZN" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1811516550358401104) 2024-07-11T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 It is an epic company one of my best finds using a screener - the biggest bear case for $LNTH is off now. Hope earnings/guidance deliver too. Pretty crazy option trade I am expecting similar stuff like this to happen in the second half - so many stocks coiled for a move" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1811612062159712680) 2024-07-12T04:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Top S&P [---] mover today is $AXON - a company ADFM owned for a couple of months" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813033636431819192) 2024-07-16T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "From my March LP letter: NEW AXON Enterprise $AXON Fundamentals: ADFM decided to sell its position in $NSSC due to concerns about leadership continuity. The founder and CEO aged [--] holds a significant stake in the company and has not provided succession plans leading to uncertainty about future management. To mitigate potential risks during a transitional period ADFM opted to sell $NSSC and replaced it with $AXON. $AXON formerly known as TASER International is renowned for its non-lethal electroshock weapons commonly referred to as Tasers. Over time Axon has expanded its portfolio to offer" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813034229682360572) 2024-07-16T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "From my May LP letter: Axon Enterprise Inc. $AXON Fundamentals: Axon reported very strong Q1 [----] results with revenue increasing 34%. However the stock is in a 10% price correction after earnings which is normal consolidation following its recent all-time highs. I want to mention Draft One a game-changer with very high return on investment for police departments. I believe it has the potential to increase Axon's total addressable market by at least 10%. Draft One is an AI product which leverages generative AI and body camera audio recordings to automate police report writing. I see the" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813035284885299212) 2024-07-16T02:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CorneliaLake And a guy with loose mandate probably adds to $NVDA and $AMD here would you consider entering the AI stocks or would that be against your mandates With that said you might find $PACK and $CG interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813253303884509639) 2024-07-16T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rubicon59 $AMD $NVDA and $VST because next 12-mo earnings expectations are wrong (too low) Also no shame in buying $MSFT" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813357225873744270) 2024-07-16T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The magnitude of $AMD and $NVDA selloffs are extremely silly. $TSM CapEx guidance was good so was $ASML guidance hyperscalers are reporting in less than [--] days - semi space now had technical reset and it is probably a great time to load up during this mini selloff. $AMD stock has shown amazing price action in recent days. I anticipate $AMD reaching $185 following the CPI and PPI reports this week. However sustaining a level above $200 will ultimately depend on the upcoming earnings report in the next few weeks. $AMD's YTD performance is $AMD stock has shown amazing price action in recent" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1813977276213838180) 2024-07-18T16:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Vistra Corp $VST - announced that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved its request to extend the operation of Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant through [----] an additional [--] years beyond its original licenses https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detaildockey=600-202407301611PR_NEWS_USPRX____DA72755-1 https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detaildockey=600-202407301611PR_NEWS_USPRX____DA72755-1" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1818383870930157857) 2024-07-30T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y My biggest position - holding $AMD is soul crushing but the stock should be at around $180-200 at the moment. Strong contender behind $NVDA and $AVGO" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1819401489812770831) 2024-08-02T15:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@1TravelGuy @Rebrand_As_Y Oh yeah Ive been in it for a whole now. However theres nothing normal about price action where the stock goes from $135 to $227 back to $135 to $190 back to $135" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1819422863629152476) 2024-08-02T17:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Genuinely think long Nasdaq and short $ARKK trade is causing everything inside Cathie Wood's ETFs to underperform. Thinking of $AMD $SQ $SHOP etc. etc. Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought [------] more shares of $AMD today Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought [------] more shares of $AMD today" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1821009164224598149) 2024-08-07T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Jerome Powell is a legendary Fed chair - the U.S. is lucky to have him at the helm of the Federal Reserve" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1827035015055855994) 2024-08-23T17:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Cant believe $MSFT is only up 10% YTD" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1827053184545702193) 2024-08-23T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AmirMoghadamnia vibes I feel it" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1828143483904991384) 2024-08-26T18:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$AMD investors seem to give the company little credit sure its revenue growth has been timid year-to-date. While this is a fact the underlying developments have been significant. When will the market begin pricing $AMD based on its [----] EPS expectations The momentum $AMD enjoyed earlier this year has faded and the stock is now trading closer to its in-place fundamentals. I anticipate a significant year ahead for the company: [--]. Embedded Segment: It bottomed out in Q1 and is now gradually recovering. The cause COVID-related oversupply which is expected to cost AMD around $2 billion in revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1828486789129965587) 2024-08-27T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This isn't exactly breaking news as many of the data points mentioned involve smaller market cap companies (under $5 billion). $NSSC is a founder-led company with a lean efficient sales team. I sold my position earlier this year but have now re-entered. 1/n How it worked: Understate Cost of Goods (COGS) + Overstate Inventory = Inflated Reported Net Income 4/x https://t.co/cS6FB2TDZI How it worked: Understate Cost of Goods (COGS) + Overstate Inventory = Inflated Reported Net Income 4/x https://t.co/cS6FB2TDZI" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1831691524217651557) 2024-09-05T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$NSSC has no debt - the company can easily do a take private which creates an inherent dampener to the drawdown in my opinion 4/n" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1831691529791959270) 2024-09-05T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NSSC Starlink product has been leading the security industry for years now. Look at the awards the $NSSC product has won over the years. 5/n" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1831695303994380300) 2024-09-05T14:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AggieCapitalist $XLP outperforming $XLK while 20% of the ETF is $NVDA is surreal to me. The sentiment towards tech is extremely negative hitting 52-week lows versus SPX. I dont get it market deems $MSFT is less of a recession hedge/duration long than $PG and $PM etc" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1831732046571458746) 2024-09-05T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It feels like the AI stock basket led by semiconductors is having its 10th bear market in a year $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MU $ASML $SMH" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1832092307858047267) 2024-09-06T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Technology stocks are displaying a H&S pattern. If you believe the bull market is over short the tech sector. However if you maintain a bullish stance on the market be prepared for an upward movement soon. The next leg up led by tech is imminent $MSFT $SMH $NVDA $SOXL" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1834271104904372495) 2024-09-12T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@stonkmetal I bought to $ASML day after reentering $NSSC - hahah what a coincidence" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1835674374348669281) 2024-09-16T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fed Rate Cuts - Explained in Simple Terms The upcoming "wall of worry" is likely to benefit both equities and bonds. I expect the Fed to implement additional rate cuts totaling [--] bps for the remainder of the year in [--] bps increments. #Powell #JPOW https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1836738449979723944) 2024-09-19T12:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMD chart looking primed for a breakout. Massive underperformer in stock price versus $NVDA and $AVGO despite being one of the top GPU/CPU designers within the AI space. $MU kicks off semi earnings next week this is a sympathy setup worth watching closely. 👀 $AMD https://t.co/TNPNh6Euie $MU kicks off semi earnings next week this is a sympathy setup worth watching closely. 👀 $AMD https://t.co/TNPNh6Euie" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1836845688078094570) 2024-09-19T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "After breaking through resistance last night and this morning with significant VIX compression still to come I'm bullish on the market. While bad data could derail this momentum the likelihood of something that severe seems low. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1836884171660120258) 2024-09-19T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ADFM Investor Letter August + Post FOMC [----] +22.17% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope August treated you well bringing health joy and prosperity. As of September [--] [----] ADFMs year-to-date returns stand at 22.17% outperforming all U.S. indices and global benchmarks. In August ADFM saw a 2.20% decline lowering returns to 8.14% by month-end. For context year-to-date the S&P [---] returned +19.79% the Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.50% NASDAQ Composite +20.00% Nasdaq [---] +18.03% Russell [----] +11.13% Hang Seng +7.10% and FTSE [---] +7.27%. I waited a little longer than usual to share the" [X Link](https://x.com/Arya__Deniz/status/1837090426760647044) 2024-09-20T11:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@aryadeniz22 Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz posts on X about $nvda, $amd, $axon, stocks the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +11,813%
- [--] Month [---------] +3,513%
- [--] Months [---------] +348%
- [--] Year [---------] +363%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -16%
- [--] Month [---] no change
- [--] Months [---] +11%
- [--] Year [---] +133%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +1.70%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +43%
- [--] Year [-----] +289%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance technology brands countries cryptocurrencies currencies exchanges social networks travel destinations automotive brands
Social topic influence $nvda, $amd, $axon, stocks, ai, investment, nvda, $fnma, china, $fico
Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) Vistra, Corp. (VST) Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Spacemesh (SMH) Metadium (META) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Intel Corporation (INTC) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) SPX6900 (SPX) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Alibaba Group (BABA) Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Vixco (VIX) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"New thoughts: #Home Prices will drop as #Mortgage Rates drop in [----] This should translate to year-over-year price decline for #US #homes (new and existing) to a magnitude of [--] to 10% in 2024"
X Link 2023-11-30T19:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Things Ill look for in the markets in 2024: 1) AI-based revenue generation 2) Capital flow in money markets 3) Proof of an exported recession ultimately helping the U.S. to avoid one 4) Fannie/Freddie becoming independent Ill update & revise this list - notes for myself"
X Link 2023-12-23T18:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@sama 3% historically is the lowest interest rate that helps capitalism function without things getting wildly speculative - a little cost of capital but not too much"
X Link 2023-12-25T19:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Breaking US Dollar Down What's the deal with #DXY The U.S. stands out as the best country in handling inflation. Investors question alternative currencies. The true safest investment product in the world: the U.S. Dollar"
X Link 2024-01-07T23:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Some of my friends and I have been trying to understand what #SMCI does its a company ADFM is not invested in but track. With the help of #ChatGPT I got the following - think its helpful and wanted to share:"
X Link 2024-01-20T18:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"#Super #Micro #Computer Inc. (SMCI) as a company thats like the architect and builder of powerful and efficient homes but instead of homes they create advanced computer systems. Here are the key points in simpler terms:"
X Link 2024-01-20T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"AI is putting downward pressure on service inflation - everything has a reflexive relationship with inflation. When we share these thoughts we should quantify the magnitude. 2021/22 shipping shocks had +2% contribution to headline CPI and crash in prices had -1.5% $APO: ".higher transportation costs are putting upward pressure on goods inflation" https://t.co/vSkTt7bsm0 $APO: ".higher transportation costs are putting upward pressure on goods inflation" https://t.co/vSkTt7bsm0"
X Link 2024-01-21T12:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Microsoft & Metaverse World of Warcraft (WoW) One of the few places where a very real trend (#AI) and a hype that can turn into a real trend (#Metaverse) meet in my opinion is the gaming world - specifically #WoW. @Warcraft @WarcraftDevs @Meta"
X Link 2024-01-22T16:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Dollar (#DXY) taking off and relentlessly staying above [---] level is very concerning to me especially for companies that need financing. Yields are not budging despite rate cut talks and I am unsure how long companies ex Fortune-1000 can maintain their debt load"
X Link 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyway my point is I think economy is not great at the moment. Big caps are fine. China stimulus is good news and should minimally help equities across the board in the short run"
X Link 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"As a betting man I think Fed recognizes this and the speech in the next couple of days will address how restrictive real rates can be/are as 10-year real interest rate is above 200bps"
X Link 2024-01-23T15:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Looks like #QT is ending Fed balance sheet flatlined as of January [----] - great news. We will never know how to quantify this but I think the market will treat it like a rate cut. If the #Fed doesnt cut in March (its fine) - talking heads will emphasize this move More & more people are talking about slowdown in #QT (quantitative tightening). My take from 11/23 may be relevant - curious how thisll impact the credit markets. More & more people are talking about slowdown in #QT (quantitative tightening). My take from 11/23 may be relevant - curious how thisll impact the credit markets"
X Link 2024-01-26T02:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle"
X Link 2024-01-27T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I dont really believe in mean reversion in the markets and this thought stems from lack of mean reversion in real life examples. Winners keep winning as evidenced by tonights game #lions #chiefs #SuperBowl"
X Link 2024-01-29T02:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@nope_its_lily NPCs in games like World of Warcraft Grand Theft Auto etc. will become more & more realistic. Once enough players have interactions with NPCs that data will be uploaded to some sort of humanoid - voila"
X Link 2024-01-30T03:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"China Devaluing the Yuan - [----] (like in 2015) We all by now accepted the fact that after the most historic rate hike cycle by the Fed nothing is broken. While I agree that nothing is broken in the Western Hemisphere I believe in Asia things are quite different. The recent collapse of Chinas real estate market could potentially lead to the devaluation of its currency the Renminbi (RMB) a.k.a. Yuan (CNY) as the country grapples with financial instability and seeks to mitigate the economic impact. Chinas real estate market once a major driver of the countrys economic growth is currently facing"
X Link 2024-01-30T18:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"My takeaways from $AMD earnings: Vivek Arya asked the best question - and @LisaSu 's answer was great. Related to MI [---] - Lisa updated her revenue guidance from $2Bn to $3.5Bn (analysts ultimately expect something around $6Bn to $10Bn for the year). Historically Lisa is conservative when she talks about guidance but the following from Lisa is very valuable in my opinion: $3.5Bn already on the books by the end of January and the ability to produce SUBSTANTIALLY more"
X Link 2024-01-30T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"My takeaways from $MSFT earnings: Law of large numbers does not apply to this company they crushed it. Multiples praise etc. all are well deserved @satyanadella 💚"
X Link 2024-01-30T23:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"My takeaways from $GOOGL earnings: @sundarpichai is a legend in my opinion but he won't be there in the next [--] months. The company needs to surprise investors and the narrative is just not that great. Does this mean Google is a good short No it is not"
X Link 2024-01-30T23:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@munster_gene $AMD also - Lisa Sus increase in guidance from $2Bn to $3.5Bn was noteworthy and she said theres substantially more demand. I think in Q2 or Q3 well see the real ramp up just like weve seen at $NVDA"
X Link 2024-01-31T02:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Based on $GOOGL and $MSFT data center CapEx commentary and (end of) cloud optimization - I think the following Q&A interaction between Vivek Arya & @LisaSu is very important. Big tech will want more chips and $AMD is ready to supply them along with $NVDA. Sell off post earnings is understandable but short sighted"
X Link 2024-01-31T03:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro Thoughts I am [--] years old and grew up in Istanbul. I have not experienced 2000-2002 or 2008-2009 crises. However my trading experience in [----] and ongoing exposure to Turkey's hyperinflation provide a unique lens. Evaluating the U.S. challenges in isolation I acknowledge them but the global panorama covering Europe Russia China and India adds layers of complexity. The media's disproportionate focus on the U.S. negatives while sidelining global issues seems puzzling. My perspective stems from recognizing the nuanced relationships in the markets where relativity defines the landscape. I"
X Link 2024-02-01T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Positions Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: AMD is ADFMs largest position and I am hoping to keep it as the largest position for the coming decade. Dr. Lisa Su is a phenomenal manager; the team is at the heart of emerging and existing secular trends. However I wasnt in AMD because I anticipated the proliferation of generative AI this year. I was/am in this company because I read the book Titan by Ron Chernow. It is about the life of John D. Rockefeller. I wont get into all my takeaways from that book but a lot of people miss the mark about Mr. Rockefeller. Much like Mr. Rockefeller"
X Link 2024-02-01T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My takeaways from $AAPL earnings: People will look back at Apple's service revenue line and in the next [--] months as the stock rallies will say why didn't we buy Apple similar $META story. VisionPro Gen [--] [--] etc. will be owned by everyone in the Apple ecosystem"
X Link 2024-02-02T02:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$MAA is a great company in a sector that is subject to many headwinds. In [----] the multifamily sector saw a record supply of new units with nearly [------] apartment units completed throughout the year. This was a 36-year high for the market. #2"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The company has 102k apartment units $800M development pipeline and 3.4x net debt as of 09/30/23. #4"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As you can see from the following $MAA has no issues related to occupancy as of 09/30/23. However lease trade-outs especially the new leases have been declining rapidly. New lease rents decline due to the record amount of supply I mentioned above. #5"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As you can see the assets are concentrated across the sunbelt. The headline is interesting to me: "Unique Diversification and Balance" - well the entire portfolio is in multifamily so if there's a slowdown across the board it won't really matter where the asset is in. #6"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I have been tracking occupancy rates across the country. In downtown #Dallas the vacancy rate for apartments built since [----] stands at 9.9%. In downtown #Fort #Worth the vacancy rate for the newest units is 17% as estimated by Partners Real Estate. #7"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The new supply pipeline in #Atlanta currently includes more than [---] multifamily projects. Looking at projects currently under construction nearly [-----] units will be added to Atlanta's apartment stock in the coming years. #9 https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/ https://www.radix.com/atlanta-multifamily-market-report-september-2023/"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Look at the rent growth (lack thereof) from the fourth quarter of [----]. Keep in mind the decline in rents in $MAA's key markets are happening during a period when labor markets were robust and a significant amount of supply was yet to be released. #10"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What I said above will impact every single #apartment #REIT. So why short $MAA specifically If you look at the table below you'll see that technically $MAA is weaker than its comps such as: $AVB $EQR $ESS $CPT and $UDR. #10"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at P/S and forward P/E alone - wouldn't you be a little suspicious as to why these companies trade at such high multiples I bet the assets owned by them are not marked to their true value. #11"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In @X format I am unsure how long these posts should be to keep you interested but at a high level what I said above are the reasons I am confident in shorting $MAA this year. As time passes I will be updating this post. This is obviously not an investment advice; I am just hoping to stress test my thoughts on this platform"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The emergence of #AI that proliferated in the past [--] months did indeed boost multiples on assets that are directly or tangentially correlated to the story. In public markets I am thinking $SMCI $AMD $NVDA $MSFT etc. Professional investors take is that generative AI is over-hyped. I think theres a reflexive relationship here. The negative feedback loop makes inherent sense to me. What was similar to the #AI story that captured the worlds attention lately Well it was #crypto. Now I think crypto truly has minimal use cases and is anti #USD. I am biased against it - with that said I spent years"
X Link 2024-02-04T19:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Reviewing my macro indicators My first two posts on Substack explained the macro indicators I check and they helped me time the bottom in the market in early November [----]. As you can see from the date of my tweet below these indicators are reliable (to me at least)"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"According to Nasdaq and DJIA Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports non-commercial buyers kicked off the rally in November. They have been buying over the past three months as commercial traders have been selling this trend is still intact. Blue line is non-commercial gray line is commercial and red line is non-reportable"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio Index ($CPC) helps me in tracking the overall sentiment of options traders. Historically I would get scared when the put/call ratio hit below [------] and aggressive above [------]. However since [----] put/call ratio have stayed around [------] so this isnt a great signal for now"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Nasdaq - Advance/Decline Issues Index ($NAAD) helps me assess the overall health of tech stocks. It looks healthy to me for now - nothing crazy"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ptj_official and his team overlayed the [----] chart over Dow Jones during 1986-87 period and came to the realization that there was going to be a correction in the market. Applying a similar logic you can see the current SPX chart overlayed on the most recent SPX charts during presidential cycles. I didnt make this but found out about it while scraping Reddit. I find it helpful - this chart makes me concerned about the next sixty days. However reflexivity comes into play here. Based on the vibes I have been getting from investors everyone and their mothers are expecting a weak February and"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"In short based on my macro indicators we are not at a euphoric or miserable spot in the U.S. equity market"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@hmeisler I am seeing [----] according to $CPC - CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio (EOD) Index. Do you mind sharing your source and index you track"
X Link 2024-02-06T22:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@BillAckman Congrats @BillAckman Are you hoping to get to the funds fair value with this move - European stocks almost always trade at a discount to fair value especially close end funds"
X Link 2024-02-07T19:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Following up on this short report - $MAA had its earnings and the shares are down around 2.00%. The following from the report support my thesis: 1) Revenue up 2.1% operating expenses up 5.9% and NOI up 0.1% during Q4 [----]. 2) New LTOs declined 7.0% renewal LTOs increased 4.8% - total LTOs decreased 1.6% 3) Occupancy still at 95.5% #RealEstate #REIT #CommercialRealEstate I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1 I am trying something new. My first short report: $MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities #1"
X Link 2024-02-08T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@sama 1000% - cant wait to experience version [--] [--] etc. Just like ChatGPT :)"
X Link 2024-02-09T21:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Hi All-in team I listened to this weeks pod and agree with your takes related to multifamily. You might find this short report related to one of the largest public multifamily REITs interesting - from a guy who used to be in the space @chamath @DavidSacks @Jasoncalacanis @friedberg"
X Link 2024-02-10T00:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Are the Treasury and the Fed doing yield curve control Yes in a subtle way -------------------- Over the past couple of months we have witnessed a series of steps taken by US policymakers to alleviate the stresses observed at the long end of the US Treasury curve specifically the 10-Year UST. At the beginning of October [----] the Fed and the Treasury found themselves struggling to control yields which began to rise uncontrollably. By the end of the month several Fed speakers came out and mentioned that the bond market was essentially performing the Fed's job for them. At the time I didnt pay"
X Link 2024-02-11T14:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the subdued SPX movement today call options dominated trading comprising 60% of volume. Goldman Sachs estimates dealers hold a $7 billion long position in spot contracts set to expire by Friday potentially impacting market dynamics significantly"
X Link 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Reflexivity (in my opinion) suggests tomorrow could be the catalyst for a trend shift with funds positioning for potential market tops. The notable slowdown today in semiconductors and big tech while rally in IWM and financials were interesting"
X Link 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Today was a position swap type of day. Covering of most shorted basket as precaution against cool CPI. Profit taking on megacaps by LO and HF. It was a heavy sell day in single names - but options tape is up 60% towards calls. Trend if kept intact is friend for now"
X Link 2024-02-13T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"For the sake of typing stuff and not being explicit with my takes here it is If headline CPI starts with: - [--] market rockets - [--] market tanks. - [--] is noise"
X Link 2024-02-13T03:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"99% of the time I attribute things going my way to luck today is one of those 1% days where I feel like my decisions worked out thanks to good diligence (hedging in this case)"
X Link 2024-02-13T15:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The following is a pretty big deal - should be picked up by news corps soon. $AMD Quietly Funded a Drop-In $CUDA Implementation Built on ROCm: It's Now Open-Source $NVDA"
X Link 2024-02-14T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@OHWallStreet Its all relative legend"
X Link 2024-02-14T14:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Amidst the latest announcement ❖ DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks +12.018M Bbl In Wk; Seen +2.8M Bbl Just wanted to reshare my takes on oil #opec #Crudeoil #wti #brent Therell be a spike due to developments in the middle east. However the cude oil supply chain (especially light crude) changed so so much vs. the last time we experienced long lasting spike in oil prices. The US is shipping oil at record volume. Fringe #OPEC+ members are not Therell be a spike due to developments in the middle east. However the cude oil supply chain (especially light crude) changed so so much vs. the last time we"
X Link 2024-02-14T15:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@cantstopstupid1 I am - are you going to highlight him trimming some of his $NVDA shares"
X Link 2024-02-15T00:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Pretty impressive and easy to envision multiple use cases thatd hit the bottom line relatively quickly. Thinking of $DIS $LIV $WYNN $MSFT (Activision Blizzard) $TTWO etc. here is sora our video generation model: https://t.co/CDr4DdCrh1 today we are starting red-teaming and offering access to a limited number of creators. @_tim_brooks @billpeeb @model_mechanic are really incredible; amazing work by them and the team. remarkable moment. here is sora our video generation model: https://t.co/CDr4DdCrh1 today we are starting red-teaming and offering access to a limited number of creators."
X Link 2024-02-15T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Cant wait to see people like you grave dancing on $NVDA and $AMD when theres a mild 5-10% correction. Hows cash and bonds youve been pitching to your clients trailing [--] months doing Wild that you still got a positive P&L to run your research shop Literal rage bait stuff Worth mentioning that [--] years later Cisco is still below its [----] high. Worth mentioning that [--] years later Cisco is still below its [----] high"
X Link 2024-02-16T02:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Hell is coming - CPI and PPI came in HOT HOT HOT (off by less than [--] bps for both) Ignore top-line growth secular trends and global deflation occurring in Asia and Europe"
X Link 2024-02-16T13:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Based on browsing 'for you' for [--] minutes the following are my takeaways: 1) crude oil will hit $300/barrel 2) multiple wars across the globe will start tomorrow 3) U.S. [--] Year Treasury will hit 7% but might get to 20% 4) Everyone moves to Miami - NYC sucks 5) Nikki Haley"
X Link 2024-02-19T20:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"My understanding is $AMD has figured out a way to make GPUs that have faster inference with 50% lower price than that of $NVDA. Honestly I don't think GPU prices decreasing is a net negative for the AI theme. These chips are hardware and overtime prices should decrease. $NVDA $AMD etc. will just find ways to improve their software revenues just like how Apple crushes it in their services segment. Private investments these semi companies are making would be interesting to track. I can't enter those investments at my size but you should be able to get in contact with most"
X Link 2024-02-22T15:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Citrini7 I am walking around UES on Madison Avenue thinking why fintech has not rallied over the past [--] months - thats something that could be interesting. One of the last sub sectors that hasnt moved. I am thinking $SQ $PYPL $AFRM etc etc"
X Link 2024-02-23T00:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Citrini7 I am also thinking why defense sector is not moving. Thinking $LMT $RTX etc"
X Link 2024-02-23T00:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Advanced Micro Devices $AMD Deep Dive As for me I like the stock ----------------------------- In recent years the pace of technological progress has been nothing short of astounding. Gone are the days when references to futuristic films of old like Blade Runner elicited musings about flying cars. As someone straddling the line between millennial and Gen Y I find myself captivated by the futuristic films of today - one example being the nuanced portrayals of artificial intelligence such as in Spike Jonze's Her. The notion of an artificial companion a voice serving as a solitary presence"
X Link 2024-02-23T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Money coming out of $GOOG will flow into $AAPL and itll have its technical breakout to the upside - watch"
X Link 2024-02-26T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The number of bankruptcies in private equity assets will skyrocket if the yields on the long end stay above 4.00%. Currently LTVs are around 40-60% so the equity cushion is 5-10x higher than the days before [----]. First article on Bloomberg about a brand name institution or private equity shop with mark to market losses that need to be crystallized and we are cutting 25bps. This is getting silly China is in recession - yuan is at levels last seen in [----]. Half of Europe is in recession and latin America is in inflationary spiral. Finally Im not saying this in the hopes that cuts will translate"
X Link 2024-02-27T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Currently the landscape for public banks appears incredibly challenging as the mark-to-market losses on their hold-to-maturity debt could potentially place them in bankruptcy. And Im not talking about $NYCB I am talking about banks like $BAC This means that if these banks were to realize these losses and adjust their balance sheets accordingly they would find themselves in a position where the total value of their debt surpasses the current market value of their assets. What are we even talking about right now Dont market participants realize what is going on"
X Link 2024-02-27T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy Energy longs are the same but off the rails :) at least uranium is recovering a little bit. Do you review price action in US Dollar vs other currencies and 10-year UST"
X Link 2024-02-28T05:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It is also not irresponsible at all to have 40% in a high conviction bet given you hedge going i to binary events Im sure @altcap and team did. As Mr. Druckenmiller says if you find something good bet the ranch on it and watch it carefully. Thats how you deliver xxx% returns like Altimeter did last year"
X Link 2024-02-29T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ADFM Investor Letter February [----] +18.84% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope February brought you good health joy and prosperity much like it did for me. Year to date ADFM has seen a 18.84% appreciation proving that my efforts are paying off. In comparison key market indices such as the S&P [---] Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite Nasdaq [---] Russell [----] and FTSE [---] have registered gains of 6.84% 3.47% 7.20% 7.24% 1.37% and -0.66% respectively. Even without access to allocator databases I'm confident that ADFM's YTD performance ranks among the top hedge funds globally. You"
X Link 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro Thoughts My bearish macro stance remains firm as long as the U.S. Dollar ($DXY) holds above $102 and persistent yields continue to pose challenges. The January CPI and PPI numbers only add to this frustration. However the ongoing economic slowdown in key countries such as Germany the UK and Japan leads me to believe that the global inflationary pressures are easing. This in turn should support the positive trend in the U.S. market. Reflecting on insights from George Soros's "The Alchemy of Finance" a strong economy coupled with a central bank's efforts to combat inflation through"
X Link 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: NVIDIA's recent earnings report showcased remarkable growth with a staggering 265% increase in revenues and a 769% surge in net income year over year. This outstanding financial performance was reflected in the market as NVIDIA's market capitalization soared adding an AMD in afterhours. AMD is the singular semiconductor company poised to challenge NVIDIA's market dominance. Lisa Su's leadership has led AMD to outperform Intel in the CPU competition marking a significant shift in the industry landscape. What sets AMD apart is it doesn't necessarily"
X Link 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Short Positions Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund $XLE: Exxon and Chevron have recently underperformed showing minimal returns since November [----] while the S&P [---] increased by 15%. Geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's influence on oil prices have unfolded differently than expected a deviation I had anticipated. With oil supply remaining robust and major economies signaling slower growth the outlook for oil companies appears less optimistic. The weakened financials at both firms align with soft energy commodity markets particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in [----]. Looking forward"
X Link 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Final Thoughts I've created ADFM's logo now featured at the top right of this and all future correspondence. It's a simple yet meaningful design where a straight 'A' and a sideways 'D' come together to form a sailboat. While hedge funds typically don't need logos I thought it would be cool to have one. With my last name Deniz translating to 'sea' in English the sailboat motif embodies this connection. This logo adds a personal touch to the company and it has received a thumbs-up from Ezmira my sister and design idol. Recently I went to Bemelmans at the Carlyle and I just love that place. I"
X Link 2024-03-01T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bump - $NYCB The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for"
X Link 2024-03-01T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@eladgil @AMD This is pretty big thanks for recording & sharing"
X Link 2024-03-01T21:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RyanDetrick @YahooFinance [--] year cumulative returns exceeding 100% implies a bubble sounded great at the Compound - bet it is an adage thatll be used by investors in the coming years"
X Link 2024-03-02T14:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Is my put/call metric wrong I am seeing put/call ratio (EOD) at [----] This is $CPC - CBOE Options Total Put/Call (EOD) INDX Total Put/Call Ratio drops to [----] the lowest level since December [--] [----] 👀 Retail continues to YOLO calls. https://t.co/xohM9bGUxQ Total Put/Call Ratio drops to [----] the lowest level since December [--] [----] 👀 Retail continues to YOLO calls. https://t.co/xohM9bGUxQ"
X Link 2024-03-02T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AravSrinivas $AMD will fix the issue - give it like [--] quarters. RocM should be fine too by then"
X Link 2024-03-03T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The fintech sector is emerging from the doghouse. Weve observed decent performance across the board with companies like $STNE $SOFI and $SQ showing positive trends. Even some of the previously unpopular entities such as $PYPL stopped going down - so they go up"
X Link 2024-03-03T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for The following is my thought process in the event $NYCB goes under. During the January Fed meeting Mr. Powell did not imply slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) - I found that decision scary. Well I think QT would stop immediately. The congress and market will push for"
X Link 2024-03-04T17:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The way $TLT is moving and 10-year dropping below 4.20% are related to $NYCB in my opinion Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB Bump - the stock just dropped to $3.00 $NYCB"
X Link 2024-03-05T13:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"For people who are curious (thought of the actually meme haha): a $10 increase in depreciation reduces net income by $10 on the income statement. On the balance sheet accumulated depreciation increases by $10 and on the cash flow statement there is a $10 increase in cash flow from operating activities because depreciation is a non-cash expense that is added back to net income when calculating operating cash flow"
X Link 2024-03-05T23:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@altcap It is surprising to me to watch someone as sophisticated as him without acknowledging global slowdowns/recessions in China Germany Japan Russia - in isolation the US is very strong but rates/currencies should be observed in relation to one-another"
X Link 2024-03-10T19:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@IbrahimAjami Ibrahim merhaba - does Mubadala invest with emerging l/s equity hedge funds What you said above would work best working with young managers who have high conviction . The way most SWFs consider allocating capital creates a reflexive dynamic where largest funds get larger -"
X Link 2024-03-10T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One of my long positions discussed below Ranpak $PACK is up 50%+ after its quarterly earnings. It feels so good to be right and see the results on the scoreboard After going my own way to launch a l/s equity hedge fund I thought how I should communicate with LPs. Some investors share quarterly memos some share monthly updates with just a paragraph. For the time being I am updating LPs monthly related to my macro thoughts positions life etc. Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: NVIDIA's recent earnings report showcased remarkable growth with a staggering 265% increase in revenues and a"
X Link 2024-03-12T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $SQ and short $PYPL looks like the fintech pair-trade of the year"
X Link 2024-03-13T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Since this post $CG is up 16% one of the best performers in financials I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle https://t.co/09ph2ZpsPV I enjoy modeling things and have been creating investment memos for my long/short ideas - curious if you will find these interesting. An idea for 2024-2025: The Carlyle Group Inc. @OneCarlyle https://t.co/09ph2ZpsPV"
X Link 2024-03-13T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Pair Trade Idea: Long Block $SQ Short PayPal $PYPL The Fintech sector is one of the last sectors that is significantly below [----] highs. At a high level fintech (finance and technology) staying below [----] highs make sense"
X Link 2024-03-13T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@robkhenderson John D Rockefeller Henry Flagler Saladin Ayyubi Max Fisher (businessman) Robert A. Faith George Soros"
X Link 2024-03-16T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking ahead I would keep an eye on the next couple of quarters: $AMD might surprise with revenue growth (as anticipated) while $NVDA could face headwinds as sales slowdown The emerging narrative $AMD nibbling at $NVDA margins much like it did with $INTC on the CPU side Jensen Huang - $NVDA CEO threw shade at $AMD today at Jim Cramer's show. Kind of interesting isn't it The profit taking makes sense drawdowns happen but the trend is intact - [----] traumatized a lot of semi-investors so whenever there's a drawdown it is amplified is my $0.02 Jensen Huang - $NVDA CEO threw shade at $AMD today"
X Link 2024-03-19T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Commercial Real Estate CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) Commercial real estate CLOs are going to be the next discussion point in the coming weeks to stress the distress in the property market that is directly tied to bank balance sheets #FED"
X Link 2024-03-19T17:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Hot take: Just like how the market priced out aggressive Fed rate cuts over the past [--] months it will increase the odds of cycle rate cuts as fast over the coming months"
X Link 2024-03-28T00:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Macro Thoughts My bearish macro stance remains persistent as long as the U.S. Dollar $DXY maintains a position above $102 coupled with persistent challenges posed by rising yields.I was expecting relatively poor January and February CPI/PPI numbers to be highlighted by the Fed chair Jerome Powell during FOMC. Mr. Powell recognized the spike but he reiterated that the deflationary trend is still intact I agree with him. However amidst this there is a silver lining as shelter costs contributed to lifting prices last month although housing inflation did slow down after a surge in January. The"
X Link 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices $AMD Fundamentals: $NVDA's recent GTC conference made a significant impact with CEO Jensen Huang's remarks about $AMD during his CNBC interview raising eyebrows and prompting speculation about underlying concerns. He basically said $NVDA is very different than $AMD why did he have a reason to diss on AMD Time will tell. One key distinction is in peak floating-point performance where $NVDA's GPUs typically outperform $AMD's. This is crucial for heavy AI workloads. However $AMD GPUs excel in integer arithmetic operations making them suitable for simpler"
X Link 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Short Positions RTX Corp $RTX Fundamentals: Over the past month the company received a positive outlook from analysts with a notable upgrade by Wells Fargo citing the potential for RTXs engine issues to diminish as the year progresses. This optimism is rooted in the expectation that the groundings related to the Pratt & Whitney engine issue will peak soon and the stock will respond favorably as this phase of the problem recedes. Additionally theres anticipation for improved margins in the defense business due to changing government needs leading to a better sales mix. Concerns: $RTX faces"
X Link 2024-04-03T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CorneliaLake I went to Duke joined Greystar out of undergrad (RE private equity) quit launched my L/S equity hedge fund. As a practitioner who is in the game right now my $0.02 would be: if you want to go your own way no one is going to tell you it is a good time to do so -"
X Link 2024-04-04T02:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"If the U.S. bank balance sheets were fully marked to market it would reveal that most banks are underwater with their liabilities exceeding the current market value of their assets. We are running into a credit event while pontificating on 0.1% changes in employment and CPI"
X Link 2024-04-05T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMD Sentiment: Over the past six weeks sentiment around Advanced Micro Devices has shifted. I have been trying to figure out the catalysts behind price actions and believe the following are key: 1) $MSFT MI300X Deployment Cuts: Some analysts have raised concerns about potential cuts in Microsofts deployment of AMDs MI300X processors. However I haven't seen a credible news source providing details about this concern. The broader market dynamics and AMDs diversified product portfolio should be considered. 2) Samsungs HBM3 Supply for MI300X: There has been anxiety regarding Samsungs High"
X Link 2024-04-11T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JonahLupton $AMD"
X Link 2024-04-12T23:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@JonahLupton @JuhiJain The company is in a phenomenal position best CPU designer with a strong GPU framework - its software is weak compared to that of $NVDA but the fact that AMD decided to go open source should over time hopefully boosts sales. I shared it due to short term price action"
X Link 2024-04-13T00:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly letter from Arya 04/13/24 Energy Iran-Israel Dynamics Amidst the Russian-Ukrainian War: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a multifaceted issue with broad implications that extend well beyond the borders of these two nations. In the Middle East where geopolitical alliances often shift in response to global events there have been noticeable changes as well. One of the key developments has been the growing significance of the Jerusalem-Baku partnership. This partnership has gained prominence due to Azerbaijan's role as a primary energy supplier to Israel providing"
X Link 2024-04-13T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is great news - keep in mind Iran is not beloved by most Muslim nations due to the Shia-Sunni divide. Iran's Shia identity contrasts with many Sunni-majority countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia the UAE and Bahrain. These differences have fueled conflicts in countries like Syria Yemen and Iraq where sectarian dynamics play a significant role alongside broader geopolitical considerations. JUST IN According to Israeli sources several Arab countries have conveyed readiness to intercept any airborne threats directed towards Israel. Via @kann_news JUST IN According to Israeli"
X Link 2024-04-13T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CG Private equity laggard has new management cheap on a multiple basis earnings recovery $AXON Defense spend across districts will increase as citizens acknowledge the importance of security and non-intrusive surveillance $PACK Terrible balance sheet but it is 6:1 levered and didnt go bankrupt - rate cuts happen and this is an easy double $AMD MI300x sales surprise buy side expectations PC and console recovery starts ROCm software opens up to public and becomes Android of chip software chiplet adoption increases"
X Link 2024-04-14T18:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2) #CPU Game: In the CPU arena AMD isn't just a contender; they're leading the charge. Ryzen and EPYC processors have shaken up the market keeping Intel on its toes and ensuring fierce competition that benefits consumers"
X Link 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3) #GenerativeAI Game: When it comes to AI $AMD isn't playing second fiddle. Unlike scenarios dominated by tech giants AMD's diverse solutions offer options and prevent monopolies. As AI expands AMD's hardware will be in high demand across industries. While TPUs and ASICs have their strengths AMD's chip design shines with superior performance and energy efficiency"
X Link 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) #MI300 vs. #B100: AMD's MI300X outshines NVIDIA's H100 with 30% better FP8 calculations and nearly 2.5x superior performance in HPC-centric tasks. NVIDIA's sparse performance is 2.67x faster. In memory and bandwidth MI300X boasts 192GB of HBM3 memory with 5.2TBps bandwidth surpassing NVIDIA's H100. Meanwhile Blackwell [---] excels with a 2.8TB/sec faster memory bandwidth but slightly lower FP64 tensor core performance than MI300X. AMD dominates in double precision earning supercomputing awards while NVIDIA shines in lower precision tasks"
X Link 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I am not saying $AMD is better than $NVDA or $AVGO - I just find this doomerism against $AMD funny and silly"
X Link 2024-04-15T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another bank goes under CPI surprise to the downside and we price in 3+ rate cuts over the summer BREAKING: Fed's Kashkari had said: The Fed could potentially wait until [----] to lower rates. BREAKING: Fed's Kashkari had said: The Fed could potentially wait until [----] to lower rates"
X Link 2024-04-18T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@altcap Compute is the oil of 21st century - without the hardware developed by the likes of $AMD and $NVDA - without semi equipment and manufacturers like $ASML and $TSM we wouldnt talk about any of the exciting developments thatre in the public discourse - were lucky to be alive rn"
X Link 2024-04-19T14:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly letter from Arya 04/23/24 Real Estate Peak Private Credit: Private credit firms have been in a strong position lately as noted by Blackstone president Jonathan Gray last year while banks have faced challenges due to a significant rise in interest rates the sharpest in [--] years. In [----] these non-bank lenders funded a remarkable 86% of leveraged loans a significant increase from 61% in [----] according to PitchBook LCD. However following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse the leading banks are now increasing their lending in the broadly syndicated bank loan markets a"
X Link 2024-04-23T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Weekly letter from Arya 04/23/24 Semis Semiconductor Arms Race: The Biden administration is actively encouraging US tech companies to pursue artificial intelligence deals and collaborations in the United Arab Emirates aiming to establish an alliance that would provide a competitive advantage over China in AI development. Microsoft recently announced a $1.5Bn investment in G42 an Abu Dhabi-based AI group chaired by influential Emirati royal Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed al-Nahyan marking Microsoft's latest significant investment in AI. The deal between Microsoft and G42 was finalized after a series"
X Link 2024-04-23T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Some thoughts about potential $AMD and $AAPL partnership: Apple is actively planning its #data #center #AI infrastructure weighing various options for implementation. One potential avenue is to rent compute in the cloud although the user posits that smaller providers may have an advantage here as Apple may be hesitant to grant large competitors access to its sensitive data. This perspective is informed by one of my contact's experiences working for a smaller company that provided #Apple cloud services which ended abruptly when a larger competitor (a rival of Apple) acquired them leading to"
X Link 2024-05-03T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Shelter is the largest component in CPI that is experiencing outright deflation not disinflation - deflation Yet the narrative shifted from several rate cuts to none and we might be in a stagflationary environment. We are not and inflationary pressures are rolling over. For the eighth consecutive month U.S. rents dropped on an annual basis in March falling by 0.3% according to a report from https://t.co/z7bwkWTkA1 . @MansionGlobal #CPI https://t.co/wyRV34VMh4 https://t.co/7KQ8lpdiwW For the eighth consecutive month U.S. rents dropped on an annual basis in March falling by 0.3% according to a"
X Link 2024-05-03T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@boazweinstein @BlackRock @boazweinstein - you should check out press Fs in the chat meme because this diss is bigger than Drake / Kendrick thing right now"
X Link 2024-05-05T02:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Investors looking back in less than [--] months will look incredibly silly for not entering $AMD at these levels Nvidia and AMD have reserved all of TSMCs CoWoS and SoIC advanced packaging capacity for [----] and [----] for HPC (high performance computing) related chips media report prompting TSMC to further expand capacity with CoWoS seen at [-----] to [-----] wafers per month by the end of Nvidia and AMD have reserved all of TSMCs CoWoS and SoIC advanced packaging capacity for [----] and [----] for HPC (high performance computing) related chips media report prompting TSMC to further expand capacity with"
X Link 2024-05-06T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ADFM Investor Letter April [----] -2.95% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope April brought you good health joy and prosperity. As of May [--] [----] ADFM returns stood at -2.95% contrasting with positive gains in major indices: S&P [---] (+8.61%) Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.09%) NASDAQ Composite (+8.91%) Nasdaq [---] (+7.53%) Russell [----] (+1.66%) and FTSE [---] (+7.38%). April proved to be a challenging month as my reliance on AMD backfired despite my efforts to position ADFM for a banner year. My main mistake was allowing my fundamental bias to overshadow the technical developments (price"
X Link 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro Thoughts I want to touch briefly on a significant development in China and dedicate the rest of this section to the Fed's recent FOMC meeting last week. Regarding China the drawdown in real estate values is accelerating faster than in [----]. Residential real estate volumes plummeted to approximately 75M square meters per month in late [----] down from 140M per month in [----] marking a 46% volume decline in just two years.In [----] China saw a total of 1.8Bn square meters of residential real estate sold with only 1.1Bn solda level not seen since the [----] financial crisis. Turning to the FOMC"
X Link 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $AMD Fundamentals: For the quarter AMD reported revenue of $5.5Bn marking a 2% increase from the previous year. This figure slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's guidance range of $5.4Bn and was slightly ahead of the Street consensus. AMD's CEO Lisa Su highlighted strong growth in the data center business with revenue up 80% compared to the previous year and client revenue increasing by 85%.However the company experienced weaker demand in gaming which was down by 48% year-on-year and embedded chips which saw a 46% decline. At the beginning"
X Link 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Short Positions Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund $XLE Fundamentals: Crude oil had its worst week since January with futures dropping 7.0%. ExxonMobil and Chevron recently experienced a downturn in their first-quarter profits potentially marking the end of their period of high earnings driven by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Both companies had benefited from increased energy prices due to the conflict resulting in substantial returns to shareholders and strategic acquisitions. However lower natural gas prices and narrower oil refinery margins negatively impacted their earnings in the first"
X Link 2024-05-08T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Until the late 1980s Buffett and Munger focused more on the investments segment. Since then they have shifted their focus to developing earnings from non-insurance operations. However Buffett has acknowledged that Berkshire's past record cannot be duplicated or approached due to the company's large base of assets and earnings. (11/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Excluding insurance operations Berkshire's earnings per share declined by 4.4% in [----] due to the performance of BNSF (railroad) and BHE (energy). The Alleghany acquisition and additional equity investments in Occidental Petroleum and Pilot helped offset this decline. Berkshire's non-insurance businesses can be further divided into four segments: insurance BNSF BHE and manufacturing service and retail. (12/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In [----] insurance underwriting had an after-tax profit of $5.4 billion corresponding to a less than zero cost of average float. Over the last [--] years Berkshire has had a lower cost of funding compared to the 10-year Treasury yield with the cost of float being below zero in [--] out of those [--] years. This means that Berkshire's insurance operations have been able to generate funds at a cost lower than alternative sources of funding often at no cost (negative cost of float). (13/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"GEICO rebounded in [----] with $3.6Bn in pre-tax earnings. GEICO focused more on profitability than growth decreasing advertising spending and active policies to avoid writing unprofitable business. BH Primary had an underwriting profit of $1.4Bn while BHRG had an underwriting profit of $1.9Bn aided by low catastrophe events compared to the previous year. BHRG's underwriting profit in [----] marked the second year it turned a pre-tax profit since [----]. (14/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The insurance float has been used for investments in equity and fixed-income securities generating investment income. Pre-tax investment income increased to $11.6Bn in [----] a 50% year-over-year growth primarily driven by a 261% increase in interest income due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Berkshire owned about $130Bn in T-bills at the end of [----] which at a 5% yield would generate a running yield of approximately $6.5Bn. (15/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While I hope that Buffett and his investment managers will make an "elephant" acquisition with the potential to earn 15% on invested capital in the long run I am uncertain if such an opportunity will arise given the current 5% T-bill return excluding future mark-to-market potential. (16/n)"
X Link 2024-05-13T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@AntoineGara @FD I just read the article loved it. There are plenty of private real estate shops that are experiencing similar issues in various funds - I reckon this trend will last for a prolonged period of time. Public REITs are in 50%+ drawdowns whereas private REITs are down 10% - comical"
X Link 2024-05-16T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"From ChatGPT-4o. Magic - this is wild. $NVDA $AMD"
X Link 2024-05-18T01:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Beth_Kindig Hey Beth do you have any earnings predictions for $ADI and $NVDA"
X Link 2024-05-19T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The ongoing trade tensions with major partners like the US have further dampened demand for Chinese exports. In Q1 [----] China's exports declined by 7.5% year-over-year reflecting the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions"
X Link 2024-05-21T02:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The real estate sector continues to struggle with oversupply and high debt levels. Several major developers have faced financial difficulties raising concerns about potential spillover effects on the broader economy"
X Link 2024-05-21T02:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Key highlight from $NVDA earnings call - I don't think I have significant edge over individuals who cover this stock except for the following key factor: Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital Expenditures One key factor that may not have been fully priced into NVIDIA's stock was the capital expenditure plans of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) on GPU technology. SWFs are not solely focused on achieving 10%+ IRRS. Rather their priority is ensuring national technological sovereignty and survival in an increasingly AI-driven world. $NVDA $AMD $INTC $ARM $AVGO"
X Link 2024-05-22T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy Public REITs down 70%+ and private comps are barely marking down asset prices - their trade outs are negative occupancy declining. Its so frustrating they are contributing to the problem theyre suffering the most from yet calling it how it is too much for those shops"
X Link 2024-05-24T12:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Recent developments in private REITs + AAA bond defaults should have a bigger impact on treasuries than the movement in Fed-watch tool and Goldmans take on rate cut timing. $TLT $SPX $QQQ ❖ GOLDMAN SACHS NOW SEES FEDS FIRST RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER VS JULY ❖ GOLDMAN SACHS NOW SEES FEDS FIRST RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER VS JULY"
X Link 2024-05-24T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly letter from Arya 05/24/24 Energy My thoughts: We have seen the top in crude oil for the rest of the year. Amidst election season coupled with weaking consumers across the globe I dont see production costs compensating for the drop in demand. Moreover technicals will come into play as they do for each commodity and WTI is about to break below the 200-DMA. Finally many OPEC members like Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq and Kuwait can produce oil at exceptionally low costs of around $25 per barrel or less. This allows them to remain profitable even if prices decline moderately. OPEC+ Production"
X Link 2024-05-24T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly letter from Arya 05/24/24 Real Estate My thoughts: The disconnect between the steep declines in public REIT valuations and the lack of corresponding markdowns in private real estate asset valuations concerns me in the current market environment. Public REITs have seen massive selloffs with some down over 70% from their peaks. However private real estate funds and asset managers have been much slower to mark down the values of their property holdings to reflect market realities. Unlike public REITs private funds do not have to constantly mark-to-market their asset values. Appraisals can"
X Link 2024-05-24T18:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Citrini7 Ex multiglad holy paladin checking in as soon as I learned how to play mage and got glad with RMP in BFA/SL performance in the market changed (night elf - meld is OP)"
X Link 2024-05-25T11:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ADeermount Sick callout bro - check Vornado SL Green Empire State Realty Trust etc. :)"
X Link 2024-05-26T03:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"There is liquidity in private equity but not at the prices GPs need to realize decent IRRs. This narrative is going to get more popular over the coming months Hedge funds hit by lack of private equity exits via @ft https://www.ft.com/content/62b1db7b-3e78-47ca-865e-02cc404915f0 https://www.ft.com/content/62b1db7b-3e78-47ca-865e-02cc404915f0"
X Link 2024-05-26T16:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I admire him and theres a lot to learn from his story - especially [----] to [----] period. There are several things that differentiate Citadel vs. other shops like Soros Fund Mgmt and Duquesne (these are the two I admire and are included in my PPM). 1) Management Fees: Ken figured out the infrastructure cost to maintain a multi-strat hedge fund cannot be compensated by 2% AM fees so used pass-through method similar in real estate defined as cost-plus 2) Multi-manager: Ken initially operated like the old timers but the modern pod-shop dynamic made Citadel legendary like Point72 Millennium etc. In"
X Link 2024-05-27T18:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Isnt Vine the original TikTok"
X Link 2024-05-27T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@calvinfroedge Inflation narrative is over in the market just like the economy the world is tilting towards services as goods get commoditized. The US is turning into Switzerland but instead of banking tech is leading. Goodwill is scary to underwrite due to its arcane nature - not bad tho"
X Link 2024-05-28T00:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@dagrauna @calvinfroedge Yeah thats a hard no - but keep investing with that take market needs investors like you"
X Link 2024-05-28T01:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What is behind the Fed National Financial Conditions Index The easing of the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index suggests a loosening of financial conditions which the media is likely to highlight in the coming months. https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/what-is-behind-the-fed-national-financial"
X Link 2024-05-28T02:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JonahLupton $SQ is the real sleeper man I think thats a quick double when it starts to move - management is frank and truthful [--] lift from crypto exposure YTD and [--] fwd P/E with improving margins. Sad to see $AMD drop-off from your list :)"
X Link 2024-06-01T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMD #Computex started. some highlights:"
X Link 2024-06-03T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"EPYC CPU share at 33% share. Zen [--] based EPYC CPU has [---] 3nm cores. Ill tell you this is Zen 5c even though she hasnt mentioned that yet. Will launch this year"
X Link 2024-06-03T02:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"AMD GPU roadmap is going to be updated annually and the semiconductor alone is orders of magnitude stronger than top competitors. They just need to figure out ROCm and would absolutely evolve into a dynamic where NVDA could be Apple vs. AMD like Google (closed/open)"
X Link 2024-06-03T03:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy Wonder if this is one of the reasons behind drop in bond yields across the globe in addition to the beginning of global rate cut cycle"
X Link 2024-06-06T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt"
X Link 2024-06-09T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AAPL soldoff after #WWDC but then it didnt The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt The entire world says $AAPL will selloff after #WWDC event - what if it doesnt"
X Link 2024-06-11T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"and investors are selling $AMD - the most obvious semi trade heading into 2nd half TSMC has already started buying equipment for two CoWoS advanced packaging plants to be built in Chiayi Taiwan despite that construction cannot begin until an environmental assessment is finished media report citing unnamed industry sources. TSMC is also surveying land for a TSMC has already started buying equipment for two CoWoS advanced packaging plants to be built in Chiayi Taiwan despite that construction cannot begin until an environmental assessment is finished media report citing unnamed industry"
X Link 2024-06-12T04:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro Thoughts In this section I will share one of my Twitter/X posts from June [--] [----] and try to analyze Jerome Powell's political conundrum. I wrote the following on Twitter/X before the release of the China and U.S. inflation reports. Since I shared these thoughts U.S. bonds across the curve are down [--] basis points. Link to the post: Volcker is revered as the best Fed chair ever for his resolute stance against inflation even at the cost of a recession. In contrast Burns is not highly regarded for allowing inflation to spiral out of control in the 1970s. Powell's primary concern at this"
X Link 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long Positions Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $AMD Fundamentals: AMD should perform quite well going forward. Over the last twelve months the embedded segment shrank by $1 billion due to COVID-related oversupply issues that are just hitting now while the gaming segment contracted by $1.1 billion typical of the console cycle after the initial surge in sales following the PS5 launch. However the embedded segment has likely bottomed out with AMD guiding for a flat quarter-over-quarter performance in Q2 and growth expected for the rest of the year. The gaming segment may experience one more"
X Link 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Short Positions You can put my silver energy sector gold miner and Ali Baba shorts into the same bucket. ADFM is currently short $SLV $XLE $GDXJ and $BABA based on the following thesis. The parabolic move in metals year-to-date has a strong fundamental backdrop. However I believe this is now turning into a proxy for a China recovery play which I don't think will happen over the next couple of quarters. Furthermore the 3%+ drop in crude oil prices after OPEC's crude oil price cuts gave me confidence that the current concern is about a global economic slowdown rather than a lack of supply in an"
X Link 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Options $AAPL Jan [--] [--] $200 Call: Top call option idea for the rest of the year. $TLT Jan [--] [--] $97 Call: Second call option idea for the rest of the year. $AMD Jan [--] [--] $180 Call: Small snapback bet. $SQ Jan [--] [--] $80 Call: A little leverage over core long holding. $LULU Jan [--] [--] $400 Call: Earnings play. $DELL Jan [--] [--] $195 Call: Earnings play"
X Link 2024-06-16T14:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@assfacecapital Definitely the highest risk/reward play in the semi space - question is almost any other top $SMH component is overbought. If there is a drawdown can $AMD avoid the damage Hard to tell. It is a very frustrating position to hold has been in the past and still is"
X Link 2024-06-18T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy China and the Fed"
X Link 2024-06-20T03:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Apple is the 'Standard Oil' of AI space $AAPL"
X Link 2024-06-23T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y Not at all youd look at forward multiples and effectively justify whether those make sense. Watch @TruthGundlach in [----] used to say equities look cheap compared to bonds Yields imply the top for multiples. In a 2% world 50x would be fine and anything below would be great"
X Link 2024-07-02T23:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Block Inc. (Square $SQ) Forward P/E - 15.20x PEG ratio - 1.43x P/S - 1.77x Next year EPS (expected) - +28.87% Q1 was the company's best quarter ever. Yet the stock is down 10% YTD and 75%+ from its ATHs. One of those easy buys that'll look obvious in hindsight"
X Link 2024-07-05T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 Vistra $VST Quanta $PWR and AECOM $ACM"
X Link 2024-07-09T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Citrini7 The company should have some humility when the likes of $MSFT $AAPL $META and the most visionary minds alive are heavily betting on the trend. Love Wall Street trying to put everything into 10-20 forward P/E and calling it a day saying over/under valued"
X Link 2024-07-09T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZaStocks Had an incredible Q1 earnings too itll run and itll run hard when investors re-explore the fintech space"
X Link 2024-07-09T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CorneliaLake Not selling is the hardest part of the game - having concentration constrains is terribly bad when you have major winners As Druckenmiller says go for the jugular if you have conviction Hopefully the fund manager can convince LPs that concentration is good companies is fine"
X Link 2024-07-09T16:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Another company that is a no-brainer at these levels: Carlyle Group Inc. ( $CG ) Forward P/E - 9.02x P/FCF - 10.63x Next year EPS - +14.50% One of the four public PE companies with a new CEO - Harvey Schwartz who was gunning for $GS CEO position"
X Link 2024-07-09T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Private equity fund performance breakdown:"
X Link 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Private equity fund performance breakdown (cont'd):"
X Link 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Private credit fund performance:"
X Link 2024-07-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BillAckman 88% permanent capital is incredible - goals (long term) I know it's not a priority for the team right now but some color on SPARC would be very cool - maybe one of the big LPs ask about it and you can share your take over time on X"
X Link 2024-07-09T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"From the prospectus for people who are interested in SPARC - @BillAckman designed and created it as a response to lacking qualities of SPACs a new form of acquisition company. The Manager also formed SPARC a Delaware corporation for the purpose of effecting a merger capital stock exchange asset acquisition stock purchase reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses. SPARC filed its Form S-1 Registration Statement (the SPARC Registration Statement) with the SEC on November [--] [----] and on September29 [----] the SPARC Registration Statement was declared effective by"
X Link 2024-07-09T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The upcoming big cap tech earnings. I was going to post this on my substack but Im in the park right now and had a revelation so wanted to send it. Check the $MAGS ETF (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) - what do you see A selloff heading into prior earnings. $SPY $QQQ $IWM"
X Link 2024-07-11T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What investors should want is for this Mag [--] selloff to continue and technicals to get digested to prepare for the next leg-up. I am expecting the drawdown to continue tomorrow and early next week as small caps/long end US treasuries keep rallying $MSFT $AAPL $NVDA $TSLA $AMZN"
X Link 2024-07-11T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 It is an epic company one of my best finds using a screener - the biggest bear case for $LNTH is off now. Hope earnings/guidance deliver too. Pretty crazy option trade I am expecting similar stuff like this to happen in the second half - so many stocks coiled for a move"
X Link 2024-07-12T04:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Top S&P [---] mover today is $AXON - a company ADFM owned for a couple of months"
X Link 2024-07-16T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"From my March LP letter: NEW AXON Enterprise $AXON Fundamentals: ADFM decided to sell its position in $NSSC due to concerns about leadership continuity. The founder and CEO aged [--] holds a significant stake in the company and has not provided succession plans leading to uncertainty about future management. To mitigate potential risks during a transitional period ADFM opted to sell $NSSC and replaced it with $AXON. $AXON formerly known as TASER International is renowned for its non-lethal electroshock weapons commonly referred to as Tasers. Over time Axon has expanded its portfolio to offer"
X Link 2024-07-16T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"From my May LP letter: Axon Enterprise Inc. $AXON Fundamentals: Axon reported very strong Q1 [----] results with revenue increasing 34%. However the stock is in a 10% price correction after earnings which is normal consolidation following its recent all-time highs. I want to mention Draft One a game-changer with very high return on investment for police departments. I believe it has the potential to increase Axon's total addressable market by at least 10%. Draft One is an AI product which leverages generative AI and body camera audio recordings to automate police report writing. I see the"
X Link 2024-07-16T02:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CorneliaLake And a guy with loose mandate probably adds to $NVDA and $AMD here would you consider entering the AI stocks or would that be against your mandates With that said you might find $PACK and $CG interesting"
X Link 2024-07-16T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rubicon59 $AMD $NVDA and $VST because next 12-mo earnings expectations are wrong (too low) Also no shame in buying $MSFT"
X Link 2024-07-16T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The magnitude of $AMD and $NVDA selloffs are extremely silly. $TSM CapEx guidance was good so was $ASML guidance hyperscalers are reporting in less than [--] days - semi space now had technical reset and it is probably a great time to load up during this mini selloff. $AMD stock has shown amazing price action in recent days. I anticipate $AMD reaching $185 following the CPI and PPI reports this week. However sustaining a level above $200 will ultimately depend on the upcoming earnings report in the next few weeks. $AMD's YTD performance is $AMD stock has shown amazing price action in recent"
X Link 2024-07-18T16:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Vistra Corp $VST - announced that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved its request to extend the operation of Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant through [----] an additional [--] years beyond its original licenses https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detaildockey=600-202407301611PR_NEWS_USPRX____DA72755-1 https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detaildockey=600-202407301611PR_NEWS_USPRX____DA72755-1"
X Link 2024-07-30T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y My biggest position - holding $AMD is soul crushing but the stock should be at around $180-200 at the moment. Strong contender behind $NVDA and $AVGO"
X Link 2024-08-02T15:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@1TravelGuy @Rebrand_As_Y Oh yeah Ive been in it for a whole now. However theres nothing normal about price action where the stock goes from $135 to $227 back to $135 to $190 back to $135"
X Link 2024-08-02T17:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Genuinely think long Nasdaq and short $ARKK trade is causing everything inside Cathie Wood's ETFs to underperform. Thinking of $AMD $SQ $SHOP etc. etc. Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought [------] more shares of $AMD today Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought [------] more shares of $AMD today"
X Link 2024-08-07T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Jerome Powell is a legendary Fed chair - the U.S. is lucky to have him at the helm of the Federal Reserve"
X Link 2024-08-23T17:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Cant believe $MSFT is only up 10% YTD"
X Link 2024-08-23T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AmirMoghadamnia vibes I feel it"
X Link 2024-08-26T18:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMD investors seem to give the company little credit sure its revenue growth has been timid year-to-date. While this is a fact the underlying developments have been significant. When will the market begin pricing $AMD based on its [----] EPS expectations The momentum $AMD enjoyed earlier this year has faded and the stock is now trading closer to its in-place fundamentals. I anticipate a significant year ahead for the company: [--]. Embedded Segment: It bottomed out in Q1 and is now gradually recovering. The cause COVID-related oversupply which is expected to cost AMD around $2 billion in revenue"
X Link 2024-08-27T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This isn't exactly breaking news as many of the data points mentioned involve smaller market cap companies (under $5 billion). $NSSC is a founder-led company with a lean efficient sales team. I sold my position earlier this year but have now re-entered. 1/n How it worked: Understate Cost of Goods (COGS) + Overstate Inventory = Inflated Reported Net Income 4/x https://t.co/cS6FB2TDZI How it worked: Understate Cost of Goods (COGS) + Overstate Inventory = Inflated Reported Net Income 4/x https://t.co/cS6FB2TDZI"
X Link 2024-09-05T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$NSSC has no debt - the company can easily do a take private which creates an inherent dampener to the drawdown in my opinion 4/n"
X Link 2024-09-05T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NSSC Starlink product has been leading the security industry for years now. Look at the awards the $NSSC product has won over the years. 5/n"
X Link 2024-09-05T14:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AggieCapitalist $XLP outperforming $XLK while 20% of the ETF is $NVDA is surreal to me. The sentiment towards tech is extremely negative hitting 52-week lows versus SPX. I dont get it market deems $MSFT is less of a recession hedge/duration long than $PG and $PM etc"
X Link 2024-09-05T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It feels like the AI stock basket led by semiconductors is having its 10th bear market in a year $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MU $ASML $SMH"
X Link 2024-09-06T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Technology stocks are displaying a H&S pattern. If you believe the bull market is over short the tech sector. However if you maintain a bullish stance on the market be prepared for an upward movement soon. The next leg up led by tech is imminent $MSFT $SMH $NVDA $SOXL"
X Link 2024-09-12T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@stonkmetal I bought to $ASML day after reentering $NSSC - hahah what a coincidence"
X Link 2024-09-16T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Rate Cuts - Explained in Simple Terms The upcoming "wall of worry" is likely to benefit both equities and bonds. I expect the Fed to implement additional rate cuts totaling [--] bps for the remainder of the year in [--] bps increments. #Powell #JPOW https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple https://aryadeniz.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-explained-in-simple"
X Link 2024-09-19T12:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMD chart looking primed for a breakout. Massive underperformer in stock price versus $NVDA and $AVGO despite being one of the top GPU/CPU designers within the AI space. $MU kicks off semi earnings next week this is a sympathy setup worth watching closely. 👀 $AMD https://t.co/TNPNh6Euie $MU kicks off semi earnings next week this is a sympathy setup worth watching closely. 👀 $AMD https://t.co/TNPNh6Euie"
X Link 2024-09-19T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"After breaking through resistance last night and this morning with significant VIX compression still to come I'm bullish on the market. While bad data could derail this momentum the likelihood of something that severe seems low. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM"
X Link 2024-09-19T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ADFM Investor Letter August + Post FOMC [----] +22.17% YTD Dear Partners/Future Partners I hope August treated you well bringing health joy and prosperity. As of September [--] [----] ADFMs year-to-date returns stand at 22.17% outperforming all U.S. indices and global benchmarks. In August ADFM saw a 2.20% decline lowering returns to 8.14% by month-end. For context year-to-date the S&P [---] returned +19.79% the Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.50% NASDAQ Composite +20.00% Nasdaq [---] +18.03% Russell [----] +11.13% Hang Seng +7.10% and FTSE [---] +7.27%. I waited a little longer than usual to share the"
X Link 2024-09-20T11:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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