# ![@Armin_Hartl Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1884223861350133760.png) @Armin_Hartl Armin Hartl

Armin Hartl's recent activity seems to be focused on analyzing and sharing insights about various stocks. There is no clear indication of a specific event or development directly related to Armin Hartl. However, he appears to be researching and commenting on companies such as $ROOT, $HCC, and $VAL.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1884223861350133760/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1884223861350133760/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +3,787%
- [--] Month [-------] +1,159%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1884223861350133760/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1884223861350133760/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [---] +44%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1884223861350133760/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1884223861350133760/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +8%
- [--] Month [---] +29%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1884223861350133760/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1884223861350133760/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  39% [stocks](/list/stocks)  26% [finance](/list/finance)  19% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  12% [currencies](/list/currencies)  6% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  3% [countries](/list/countries)  3%

**Social topic influence**
[$rig](/topic/$rig) #34, [$val](/topic/$val) #17, [$ne](/topic/$ne) #491, [$sdrl](/topic/$sdrl) #7, [$hcc](/topic/$hcc) #2, [$amr](/topic/$amr) #1, [$borr](/topic/$borr) #11, [rig](/topic/rig) #179, [$prxas](/topic/$prxas) #7, [tencent](/topic/tencent) 11%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jsmith8286](/creator/undefined) [@refinedman2](/creator/undefined) [@prosusgroup](/creator/undefined) [@noalgos](/creator/undefined) [@aseoane123](/creator/undefined) [@michaelalderyan](/creator/undefined) [@pwc](/creator/undefined) [@mohnishpabrai](/creator/undefined) [@mfwarder](/creator/undefined) [@jimmyinvest](/creator/undefined) [@exploitationcap](/creator/undefined) [@icebird573](/creator/undefined) [@kpmg](/creator/undefined) [@deloitte](/creator/undefined) [@eynews](/creator/undefined) [@mckinsey](/creator/undefined) [@bcg](/creator/undefined) [@bullreturns](/creator/undefined) [@earningsb4hugs](/creator/undefined) [@maximus12314971](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)](/topic/$hcc) [Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)](/topic/$amr) [Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)](/topic/$borr) [Ramaco Resources, Inc. Common Stock (METC)](/topic/$metc) [Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)](/topic/$btu) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Arm Holdings plc (ARM)](/topic/$arm) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG)](/topic/$nfg)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Another case study of "don't overpay for quality". $SHOP didn't produce any returns over the last five years amid the recent 40% sell-off. SHOP's future is probably bright - that's why I keep the shares I bought in late [----] - but the price you still pay today is insane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020823188838465878)  2026-02-09T11:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$TAVHY has yet again a strong quarter with 13% growth and 22% NI margin (Q3 standalone). The stock is up by 5% reflecting great operating performance. TAV generates EUR 250m FCF [----] RR trading at P/FCF of 7.8x. Not bad for a growing moat business with mid-20s NI margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1981750053774495831)  2025-10-24T15:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TCEHY announced 15% revenue growth margin expansion and share repurchases amounting to HKD21.1bn (0.4% of mkt cap). $PRX.AS the dutch internet holding owning 20% of Tencent - making up the vast matority of its NAV - is up 3% on the news"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1988894375825309761)  2025-11-13T08:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Struggling to find good tech investment ideas $PRX.AS stake in Tencent is worth EUR [--] vs. current price of [--]. On top you get an basket of EM AI-enabled cashflowing commerce businesses and the largest share buyback of any tech firm. Tencent itself is not even expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1996205858217509305)  2025-12-03T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Prosus $PRX.AS trades at 8.5x P/E and 35% discount to NAV despite having Tencent embedded. Investors get: - Tencent at 18.5% discount 14.6x P/E - 1.1bn in EBITDA for free on top (FY26E) - Ecosystem growth of 20% - Buybacks Tencent has a huge moat growth and ROCE of 47%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1999089920800071725)  2025-12-11T12:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The inversion of the met coal miners. $HCC $AMR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2001296633028305223)  2025-12-17T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Mohnish Pabrai's reasoning to prefer $RIG: Leverage is an important piece of the equation but so is whitespace (idle ships). RIG had almost no whitespace while $VAL & $NE "bleed" FCF due to idle cost. The lack of white space hints to quality of ships crew and business acumen. A replay of the Pabrai Wagons Fund December [--] [----] Shareholder Call hosted by Portfolio Manager @MohnishPabrai has been posted here: https://t.co/o55XRTGIya. The transcript is also available here: https://t.co/tX3QxrnCrU. Retail share class ticker: WAGNX. Institutional share A replay of the Pabrai Wagons Fund December 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2001593280317075714)  2025-12-18T10:00Z [---] followers, 19.4K engagements


"Interesting offshore driller summary by DNB. But where are the newbuilds coming from Presumably its post [----] rigs but the numbers don't add up with rig types (10 vs. 11). $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL $OIH $RIG $NE $BORR Offshore stats via DNB - marketed utilization for modern JUs and 7G drillships remains good 🤷♂ https://t.co/CvA3CLULIv $OIH $RIG $NE $BORR Offshore stats via DNB - marketed utilization for modern JUs and 7G drillships remains good 🤷♂ https://t.co/CvA3CLULIv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2002377256094536061)  2025-12-20T13:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Despite having closed [----] almost 40% ahead of the S&P [---] I see plenty of upside with my portfolio. My high conviction bets: - Offshore drillers: $VAL $RIG $NE - Met coal miners: $HCC $AMR - Prosus $PRX.AS - [--] other assets All covered in my new substack post (link in bio)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2007419960600211789)  2026-01-03T11:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Global rig fleet since [----] as per Westwood data. There are still some few idled rigs in shipyards from the last order boom one decade ago. The number of drillships is quite stable but semis have been decimated. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2009229849194312044)  2026-01-08T11:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting driver of met coal prices. Nutshell: Indian steel prices did not allow for positive margins leading to less HCC demand as producers substitute inputs. The trend is now shifting. It's not a 100% correlation tho (July). Thanks @mfwarder $HCC $AMR This chart tells a simple but important story. What youre seeing is the Indian steel cost stack versus HRC steel prices. For much of the period finished steel prices were at or below total production costs . meaning steel mills were operating with negative or severely https://t.co/JRUtBdRcTX This chart tells a simple but important story."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2009587537933963710)  2026-01-09T11:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Global offshore attrition accelerates to the highest level since [----]. [--] drillships have been (announced to be) retired. $RIG and $NE announced [--] retirements; all 6th Gen ships cold-stacked for years. $VAL $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL Source: Westwood RigLogix"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2009641563639459978)  2026-01-09T15:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"IEA forecasted a decline in met coal consumption in [----]. Seaborn met coal demand however is expected to rise while supply is shrinking. $ARM and $HCC are predominantly focused on seaborn thus benefitting from supply shortage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2009944558654894568)  2026-01-10T11:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"How she looks at you when you tell her that you bought $AMR and $HCC end of June 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2009996417864216819)  2026-01-10T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I aggregated Westwood data articles and SEC filings to form a view on the current offshore supply. Punchline: There's plenty of supply sidelined despite rapidly rising attrition which increasingly concerns "young" rigs. It's free (link in comments) $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2011415500404989953)  2026-01-14T12:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Retired rigs are becoming younger. Attrition is picking up and does not even stop for 7th Gen assets. Nobles Pacific Meltem was cold-stacked for [--] years and will be retired without having drilled a single well. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $ADES https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/offshore-supply-unpackedr=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/offshore-supply-unpackedr=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2011758690257551604)  2026-01-15T11:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Lets keep these tenders coming 🛢 $val $rig $ne $sdrl https://t.co/BmJAeSBoSx https://t.co/BmJAeSBoSx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2012111329436533242)  2026-01-16T10:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The offshore rig fleet has [---] stacked units (21% of total) and [---] that are considered old ( avg. retirement age of the last [--] years). Thus the fleet could shrink meaningfully if demand is not picking up. Link to the free write-up in the comments 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 $val $rig $ne $sdrl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2012865054069395583)  2026-01-18T12:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$HCC had a run since the summer. Quick reminder: Blue Creek came online earlier than anticipated w/ full ramp-up in early [----]. It will add 600m in incremental FCF at prevailing HCC prices. HCC's FCF is expected to be 850m at an EV of 5.1bn for a 16.7% yield. Net cash on BS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2013944918063128781)  2026-01-21T12:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$SDRL announced three contract awards: - West Capella (6th Gen) - reactivated: 356k/d for 440d + mobilisation - West Elara (HE Jack-up): 162k/d assuming 480d - West Carina (7th Gen): Contract extended at same rate. Can be as low as 245k/d $RIG $VAL $NE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2014022764538040777)  2026-01-21T17:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$AMR still the cheapest miner on EV / NTM EBIT multiples. This chart looks wild but NTM is obviously heavily influenced by met coal price expectations. $HCC $SMR.AX http://WHC.AX http://WHC.AX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2015394344858255796)  2026-01-25T12:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Met coal had a brutal day yesterday but over the last 6M we are just fine. Coke prices are holding steady at [---] due to the Australian floods affecting mines and infrastructure which forced four producers into force majeure as per Coal Hub. $HCC $AMR $BTU $METC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016100118769107305)  2026-01-27T10:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Offshore rig utilisation has been broadly stable except for semis which sa a decrease to 79% as per RigLogix Committed drillships remained at [--] units leaving [--] marketed rigs available and eight cold-stacked. Marketed utilisation was 90%. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016462506630291753)  2026-01-28T10:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"It strikes me as crazy that is still trading at a 35% discount to NAV despite most of the NAV being listed large-caps and the company agressively buying back stock. Today Tencent was up 2% and Prosus is flatish.🥶 http://PRX.AS http://PRX.AS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016522904335520119)  2026-01-28T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This comes to mind when met coal minders experience a rapid 15% pullback despite HCC prices remaining attractive. $AMR $HCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016589846131667122)  2026-01-28T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"realized prices of 150/t (+10% q-o-q). Hence $AMR might become profitable again. The price increase translates into additional coal margin of 10/t i.e. 40m vs. Q3 loss of 5m. If that's not enough (obv. simplified analysis) HCC gained 15% YTD. $HCC http://WHC.AX http://WHC.AX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016824894302953584)  2026-01-29T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Yet again Tencent up and $PRX.AS down. The market doesn't fancy Prosus atm. Discount to NAV stands at 37%. A "normal" range is 15-25% which is often with either low quality or low liquidity (P/E w/ self assigned NAV) companies. Prosus holds high quality mostly listed assets. It strikes me as crazy that https://t.co/ns86GqnTgR is still trading at a 35% discount to NAV despite most of the NAV being listed large-caps and the company agressively buying back stock. Today Tencent was up 2% and Prosus is flatish.🥶 It strikes me as crazy that https://t.co/ns86GqnTgR is still trading at a 35%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016946816537788799)  2026-01-29T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In his latest investor call Pabrai said: " $HCC has much better mines than $AMR but Warrior has less efficiency on the capital allocation side because of this legacy" That triggered my deep dive into NOLs [---] Transfer Restrictions and buyback implications. Link in comments👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017204215987273921)  2026-01-30T11:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$AMR announced Q4 loss but resumed (a small) buyback. Were improving. AMR spent approximately $20 million for the repurchase of roughly [------] shares. $HCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017226473090785409)  2026-01-30T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SDRL yet again announced a contract extension. Folks things are picking up West Saturn (7th Gen) has received a one year extension adding USD 114m to the backlog. The implied dayrate is 312k. $RIG $VAL $NE $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017240131129000080)  2026-01-30T14:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Contrary to $AMR $HCC won't buyback shares anytime soon: 1bn in NOLs might become worthless if an ownership change occurs. This could be triggered by someone becoming a 4.99% owner or increasing its stake beyond this level. More detailed background https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/hcc-warrior-met-coals-buyback-dilemmautm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/hcc-warrior-met-coals-buyback-dilemmautm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017564769369067828)  2026-01-31T11:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$HCC wont repurchase shares anytime soon. It could cost them close to 1bn in NOLs. Its nevertheless irrational and HCC should resume buybacks. The reason why is rooted in the Alabama tax code and their historical NOL usage. https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/hcc-warrior-met-coals-buyback-dilemmar=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/hcc-warrior-met-coals-buyback-dilemmar=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018044007205548465)  2026-02-01T19:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Refinedman2 I think it might be because HCC sits lower on the cost curve and is thus more resilient in downturns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018179039576334839)  2026-02-02T04:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Rystad estimates that 83% of O&G volumes added stem from offshore. Moreover the vast majority of high impact wells in [----] are from ultra-deep water. $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $BORR https://offshore-mag.com/drilling-completion/news/55354388/rystad-energy-africa-set-to-dominate-offshore-frontier-drilling-in-2026 https://offshore-mag.com/drilling-completion/news/55354388/rystad-energy-africa-set-to-dominate-offshore-frontier-drilling-in-2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018273737401880944)  2026-02-02T10:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Noalgos Discount to NAV is close to ATH. One can now get Tencent for 22% off plus upside optionality in the e-commerce portfolio. Thats mind boggling to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2019351572472610909)  2026-02-05T10:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"discount to NAV is increasing drastically to 39%. The share trades at a 22.5% discount to Tencent - historically only surpassed in Mar-25 with 24%. Other NAV is a basket of high growth profitable ecommerce businesses with upside optionality. http://PRX.AS http://PRX.AS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2019361609865654354)  2026-02-05T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jimmyinvest Probably both. Microsoft too cheap and IBM too expensive. But hey Im not an expert in all things trading 20x P/E"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020861236263416072)  2026-02-09T14:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JSmith8286 I mostly use it for research. I ask all the Due Diligence questions and AI scraps the internet for reputable sources which makes verification of facts/thesis faster. However I noticed that you have to check every single fact AI often makes up data/conclusions w/o good reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020935197622206932)  2026-02-09T18:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In mid-2023 Westwood estimated the min. dayrate for new orders at 650k-700k assuming costs of 1bn. There will be a prolonged time of rates 500k where $VAL will print FCF in excess of 1.2bn. VAL trades at 4bn (30% implied yield). This year Next year Who cares. $RIG $NE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2008863686262415811)  2026-01-07T11:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Mohnish Pabrai increased his $VAL exposure to one similar in size as his $RIG exposure as per Q4 mutual fund disclosures. During Q4 VAL shares traded between $50 and $60 similar to today's levels of [-----]. $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2010671850930737562)  2026-01-12T11:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$NE $RIG and $VAL had a cold-stacked fleet of [--] units in early [----]. Today [--] have been retired only the bottom six remain. Interestingly NE retired Pacific Meltem a 7th Gen drillship stacked for [--] years w/o having drilled a single well. The market is still oversupplied"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2011077079010304273)  2026-01-13T14:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Wood Mackenzie says GoA rig rates are too expensive relative to Brent pricing in $89bbl. Currently WM sees 380k-400k/d as optimal rig rates. The analysis is based on a hist. avg. Rig Rate/Brent ratio thus neglecting changing supply-demand dynamics. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2013582530029724059)  2026-01-20T12:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$VAL cmon $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $TDW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2014287452878311823)  2026-01-22T10:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Drill baby drill $ADES $BORR $VAL Jackups will explode in [----] Key word: "fast track" Everyone trying to jump ahead of $ARAMCO this time around Some will be left with no units $ADES $BORR $VAL https://t.co/i5koKfNInC Jackups will explode in [----] Key word: "fast track" Everyone trying to jump ahead of $ARAMCO this time around Some will be left with no units $ADES $BORR $VAL https://t.co/i5koKfNInC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2014383329143906766)  2026-01-22T17:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$VAL is still sitting at the highest FCF yield among drillers. $RIG $NE $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2014719193665409176)  2026-01-23T15:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2015760213932990927)  2026-01-26T12:14Z [---] followers, 12.5K engagements


"Someone's catching up. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $TDW $VAL cmon $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $TDW https://t.co/drpFLSKGtz $VAL cmon $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $TDW https://t.co/drpFLSKGtz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2015860510160278003)  2026-01-26T18:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"We made it HCC crossed 250/t. And met coal stocks are back to what they are supposed to do. Rising. $AMR $HCC $METC $PTU Happy $250 Met #Coal Day to those who celebrate. 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳 #CoalTwitter https://t.co/1IOO2Nt6Va Happy $250 Met #Coal Day to those who celebrate. 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳 #CoalTwitter https://t.co/1IOO2Nt6Va"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016183653999456541)  2026-01-27T16:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"What a round course 15% pullback for met coal miners over the last two weeks. $AMR issued a report with a slight loss highlighting that the surge in met coal pricing will mostly benefit Q1 results. No surprise but the market punished AMR with -5% on the day. $HCC $METC $BTU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017633780341596483)  2026-01-31T16:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Drillers are divided: $RIG $VAL and $NE reaching positive FCF while $SDRL $BORR and $NOL.OL are still negative. However performance is best for negative FCF yielding stocks with the exception of RIG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018327293911785926)  2026-02-02T14:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Met coal is at 250/t. Demand still exceeds supply pushing prices to their highest levels in the last [---] years. However some end-users are beginning to adopt a wait-and-see attitude considering the current price level to be high - The Coal Hub $AMR $HCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018636092917092380)  2026-02-03T10:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Prosusgroup at this discount to NAV a 5bn RR BB doesn't cut it Prosus IS Tencent the remainder bears a negative value. Sell the entire public portfolio and use the 8.5bn for repurchases. Then use some of your 20bn in cash to buy more. At least triple your ambition. $PRX.AS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2019669937196003766)  2026-02-06T07:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@aseoane123 @exploitationcap @Prosusgroup The compensation report states a doubling of the share price as per July [----] (if I recall correctly). Back then PRX was at 35/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021306699588464829)  2026-02-10T19:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Michaelalderyan I hope you didn't initiate a short yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021572217113305352)  2026-02-11T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019414561582145619)  2026-02-05T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Big picture facts for owners of drillers: Onshore and shallow water crude production is declining with deepwater somewhat increasing. Offshore projects are gaining share of approvals; the acceleration in ultra-deepwater is especially pronounced. Source: IEA $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019785653664317577)  2026-02-06T14:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"What a wild ride for drillers last week has been. Most are up double digits for the week and 30% for the year despite the lack of clearly improved dayrates. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $BORR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020102072587223538)  2026-02-07T11:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"How I see Canadian micro-cap special situations trading at 1/3 peer multiple and selling off an additional 20% due to the expiry of a lock-up period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020478367494008856)  2026-02-08T12:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Every analyst knows the way to truly great insight is proper formatting. Im not worried as long as the LLM still has gridlines activated Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by answering [--] questions. A lot of tasks are becoming pure commodities if you dont keep up youre done. https://t.co/1okH8jSqhF Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by answering [--] questions. A lot of tasks are becoming pure commodities if you dont keep up youre done. https://t.co/1okH8jSqhF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020591046422310998)  2026-02-08T20:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Holy Guacamoly $RIG to acquire $VAL didn't see that coming. All share deal with RIG owning 53% of the combined company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2020847336524550362)  2026-02-09T13:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


""Zacks Research Downgrades $HCC to Strong Sell" Was hit by a Valentine's Portfolio ad when clicking on the headline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021226397306585550)  2026-02-10T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Crazy how one thing can go incredibly well ( $RIG $VAL) only for something else to sink like a rock Coking coal god have mercy I only want to enjoy my cocktails in Thailand while looking at a green portfolio $AMR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021302160886018341)  2026-02-10T19:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BAMI.TO thesis in a nutshell: - overly complicated situation (RTO merger asset sales) hides economics - Expiry of lock-up and share deal brought motivated sellers: Daily volume 20x and SP -30% - Fairfax underwrote 3x current multiple - founder-operator w/ proven track-record"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021538559719530706)  2026-02-11T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/bamito-blue-ant-media-hidden-economicsr=4tg054&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/bamito-blue-ant-media-hidden-economicsr=4tg054&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021538657677812167)  2026-02-11T10:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$SHOP is so back Up 11% in pre-market after Q4 results: ✅Revenue +31% ✅FCF margin 19% ✅US e-commerce mkt share 14% Not sure whether repurchases at 1-2% FCF yield make sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021572015711265096)  2026-02-11T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nevermind $SHOP is crazy bipolar for a 31% growth announcement. $SHOP is so back Up 11% in pre-market after Q4 results: ✅Revenue +31% ✅FCF margin 19% ✅US e-commerce mkt share 14% Not sure whether repurchases at 1-2% FCF yield make sense. https://t.co/icEO3Q5DpK $SHOP is so back Up 11% in pre-market after Q4 results: ✅Revenue +31% ✅FCF margin 19% ✅US e-commerce mkt share 14% Not sure whether repurchases at 1-2% FCF yield make sense. https://t.co/icEO3Q5DpK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021622058459762733)  2026-02-11T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NE reported sequential decrease in revenue and EBITDA but remains optimistic re inflection in 27: While [----] is anticipated to be a transitional year from an earnings perspective the foundation for a meaningful inflection is becoming increasingly tangible $RIG $VAL $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021890742986097009)  2026-02-12T10:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"What a week for met coal miners Down mid single-digits for the week and the year amid retracting coking coal prices. $HCC $AMR $BTU $METC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2022623100697768153)  2026-02-14T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Quite the day for $BORR and $RIG yesterday. The uptick in project visibility is materializing in share prices with drillers up 12-29% YTD. $VAL $NE $SDRL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2018999221349712077)  2026-02-04T10:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"FCF yield for met coal miners inching up with BTU at almost 9%. $AMR $HCC $METC $BTU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019730012279390393)  2026-02-06T11:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Needless to say that $VAL had a stellar YTD so far. $VAL & $RIG are trading at 25x EV/FCF (LTM) significantly ahead of the peers. Controlling the largest and highest spec UDWs and the entire cold-stacked fleet will give substantial negotiation power though. $NE $SDRL $BORR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021174807350608193)  2026-02-10T10:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$PRX.AS discount to NAV is at 39% only 1ppts away from the largest it has ever been. No one cares I can tell by the impressions I get on Prosus related posts. Maybe that's enough reason for you to dig if you're interested in $TCEHY at a discount 👇👇 https://arminhartl.substack.com/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054 https://arminhartl.substack.com/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2021951173679624429)  2026-02-12T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Why am I stumping for $PRX.AS Not for Prosus' sake but for Tencent. After the discount from PRX and adj. for Tencent's equity portfolio its valued at 9.0x EBIT and 13.7x FCF. That's for a deep moat business that grows 15% and has a ROCE of 40%. Dec deep dive in comments👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019414457575960866)  2026-02-05T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BAMI.TO trades at 3.1x EBITDA vs. $FFH.TO private valuation range of 6x - 9x. Its owner-founder led by MacMillan who's responsible for the CSI hitshow and previously sold his company for 2bn to GS. A roll-up in a niche industry with 50% discount 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/bamito-blue-ant-media-hidden-economicsr=4tg054&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/arminhartl/p/bamito-blue-ant-media-hidden-economicsr=4tg054&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2022691048204439824)  2026-02-14T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@icebird573 I also don't think that they'd risk NOLs. It seems to me that they want legal certainty about buybacks not affecting NOLs but why is beyond me. HCC effectly doesn't use any NOLs due to the alabama bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2017629817630244976)  2026-01-31T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PwC analysed the European airport transactions showing increasing multiples from [----] to [----]. Does anyone have an updated version/alternative source up until [----] The more granular the better. $TAVHY $FGWLF $FHZN.SW $ADP.PA @KPMG @Deloitte @EYnews @McKinsey @BCG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1968221373266006050)  2025-09-17T07:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PwC analysed the European airport transactions showing increasing multiples until [----]. Does anyone have an updated version/alternative source up until [----] The more granular the better. $TAVHY $FGWLF $FHZN.SW $ADP.PA https://www.pwc.co.uk/transport-logistics/assets/airport-valuations-february-2019.pdf https://www.pwc.co.uk/transport-logistics/assets/airport-valuations-february-2019.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1968222101590229295)  2025-09-17T07:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Billionaire investor Mario Gabelli sees $NFG as second order winner of the AI boom. Allegedly there is value in their natural resources share buybacks potentially increasing dividend and financial engineering. P/E (TTM): 33.3x and P/OCF (TTM): 7.6x https://cnb.cx/4n0Lm9b https://cnb.cx/4n0Lm9b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1978335900460347658)  2025-10-15T05:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Uzum considers London listing. Valued at USD 1.5bn in August Uzum is the first unicorn start-up from Uzbekistan. As super-app it provides a marketplace delivery banking and BNPL services with 40% penetration in Uzbekistan. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tencent-backed-uzbek-start-up-uzum-considers-london-listing-2025-10-16/ http://0700.HK https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tencent-backed-uzbek-start-up-uzum-considers-london-listing-2025-10-16/ http://0700.HK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1979065840650629486)  2025-10-17T06:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"With all the AI discussions going on I'm quite happy to have a somewhat boring portfolio containing names like Prosus $PRX.AS. Shares are up more than 50% YTD and the value is growing double digits while the P/E (LTM) sits at 13x. I prefer this all the way to AI speculations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1991485334644043924)  2025-11-20T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$VAL $RIG and $NE were on a tear yesterday. Quick reminder about their relative valuations. Dayrates are still in the 400s and need to at least double before new ships can be orders. That's pure incremental profit. These assets are vital for global economy as we know it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1996580499293122656)  2025-12-04T14:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$PRX.AS quaterly NAV plus yesterday. The discount is widening again. You can buy $TCEHY at a 20% discount and get 500m in RR EBIT from fast growing e-com businesses on top. Tencent itself doesn't even trade expensive. @Prosusgroup pls ramp up buybacks w/o selling Tencent🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1996936943389532372)  2025-12-05T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Global offshore rig utilisation and contracted rig years decreased in November. Nothing to worry about yet but curious when the reflection upwards will materialize in utilisation. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1997742909207237017)  2025-12-07T19:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Drillers are in a weird situation. I've heard no valid argument why the fundamental thesis on $VAL $RIG $NE etc. were to be false yet most drillers trade at a massive discount. We can argue about timing and which stock is best positioned but hard to refute the general thesis. $OIH $RIG $ODL.OL $NOL.OL $VAL $NE $SDRL I believe @BULLReturns is correct - and actually obviously so. It always seems this way at / after heavy cyclical lows. The question to ask yourself is what stock prices / market caps will these companies be trading at in an environment $OIH $RIG $ODL.OL $NOL.OL $VAL $NE $SDRL I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1997989168559882615)  2025-12-08T11:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The first round of O&G drilling rights in the GoM concluded. The auction ended with 279m in high bids generating 100m less than last lease sale in [----] but more per acre. $BP $WDS.AX and $CVX have dominated bidding. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-holds-first-gulf-mexico-oil-gas-auction-since-2023-2025-12-10/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-holds-first-gulf-mexico-oil-gas-auction-since-2023-2025-12-10/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1998987428095504771)  2025-12-11T05:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ppl interested in met coal should look at iron ore. While BF is the dominant steel production route DRI is gaining share. Iron ore is one of the most abundant materials but high grade FE content 66% is better for DRI. Only 3% of supply is 66% leading to DRI premia. $AMR $HCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2000209312099021201)  2025-12-14T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I put my thinking on $PRX.As in writing. Still crazy to me that one can buy Tencent at a 17% discount and a low teens multiple despite being one of the best franchises in the world. https://arminhartl.substack.com/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054 https://arminhartl.substack.com/p/prosus-the-best-large-cap-tech-investmentr=4tg054"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2000560390888194311)  2025-12-15T13:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The hole offshore drilling sector is down today by 5-6%. Quick reminder for everyone worried these companies are expensive after the H2 rally. $VAL $RIG $NE ( $SDRL omitted due to negative FCF)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2000956636836646944)  2025-12-16T15:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Met coal futures are on a run $HCC $AMR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2001971386970152987)  2025-12-19T11:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"After the recent volatility it is worth reiterating that rig utilisation and thus cash flows is not very sensitive to oil prices. Yet stocks prices vary widely despite prevailing prices allow for 80% of reserves to be profitable. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2003154132375601464)  2025-12-22T17:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"December utilisation for drillships remained broadly stable while semis and jackups experienced declines. Contract backlogs are continuing their decline as well. This year drillships' backlog decreased by 8% semis by 30% and jackups by 15%. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR $NOL.OL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2005960807939445201)  2025-12-30T11:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Drillers are flatish for [----] and 10-25% below [----] levels. At the beginning of [----] brent was priced at [--] (vs. [--] today) drillship utilisation was 95% (vs. 90%) and leading edge rates were in the low 400s (similar to today). $VAL $RIG $NE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2006040081363063202)  2025-12-30T16:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Met coal prices over the last [--] years. With prices recently rallying we're approaching a territory where prices are neither cheap nor expensive. $AMR $HCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2011021705477558601)  2026-01-13T10:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Global offshore drillship fleet consists of [---] units. Considering the age of the assets [--] are older than the average retirement age over the last [--] years. Thus over the medium-term the fleet could shrink to a size smaller than the current active rigs. $val $rig $ne $sdrl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2012176051007307971)  2026-01-16T14:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@EarningsB4Hugs To be fair Pabrai charged fees for his mutual fund previously and the 0.9% is a reduction vs the previous rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2016099542819643502)  2026-01-27T10:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RIG announced contract extension for two of its rigs adding $168m in backlog. 6th Gen Deepwater Mykonos contracts [---] days at a rate of 400k while harsh semi Transocean Enabler contracted for [---] days at a rate of 457k. Both contracts are roughly in line with previous rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2008179636543623245)  2026-01-05T14:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The UK government committed 39bn to social and affordable housing over [--] years up from the 11.5bn programme in an attempt to increase their share of building to historical levels. Builders like $VTY.L might be huge beneficiaries from increased spending. $TW.L $BTRW.L $PSN.L"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1966149756046160305)  2025-09-11T14:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$SPMI.MI scored a one year contract extension for its 6th Gen harsh-environment semi Scarabeo [--] with $AKRBP.OL The contract extends now until [----] adding USD 157m (430k/day) to Saipems backlog. https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/saipem-wins-third-extension-for-drilling-rig-offshore-norway/2-1-1919342utm_source=upstreamonline.com&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=copied_link https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/saipem-wins-third-extension-for-drilling-rig-offshore-norway/2-1-1919342utm_source=upstreamonline.com&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=copied_link"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2001924138609611001)  2025-12-19T07:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HRB looks fairly cheap in a segment that got hammered last year. I figure ppl will continue to file taxes for the foreseeable future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/2012143628517515526)  2026-01-16T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Rhino confirms discovery at Volans-1X offshore Namibia hinting towards excellent reservoir quality. This can bring momentum into the Orange basin potentially accelerating finalisation of the political framework. $SEI.V would benefit via PEL83. $GLPEF https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/10/1/rhino-confirms-high-liquid-gas-condensate-discovery-at-volans-1x-offshore-namibia/ https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/10/1/rhino-confirms-high-liquid-gas-condensate-discovery-at-volans-1x-offshore-namibia/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Armin_Hartl/status/1973704315710914983)  2025-10-02T10:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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