#  @AnnaEconomist Anna Wong Anna Wong posts on X about inflation, fomc, fed, tariffs the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1524434400401924097/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +507% - [--] Month [---------] +513% - [--] Months [---------] -34% - [--] Year [----------] +151% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1524434400401924097/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] +100% - [--] Months [---] -22% - [--] Year [---] +59% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1524434400401924097/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +3.50% - [--] Month [------] +7.70% - [--] Months [------] +20% - [--] Year [------] +83% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1524434400401924097/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [us election](/list/us-election) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation) #171, [fomc](/topic/fomc), [fed](/topic/fed), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [china](/topic/china), [gdp](/topic/gdp), [ai](/topic/ai), [in the](/topic/in-the), [bloomberg](/topic/bloomberg), [powell](/topic/powell) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@theterminal](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@chrisgcollins1](/creator/undefined) [@atanzi](/creator/undefined) [@dimartinobooth](/creator/undefined) [@stevemiran](/creator/undefined) [@thestalwart](/creator/undefined) [@ouestelle](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@econberger](/creator/undefined) [@tdurie95](/creator/undefined) [@economics](/creator/undefined) [@stevehouf](/creator/undefined) [@donmiami3](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@secscottbessent](/creator/undefined) [@renmacllc](/creator/undefined) [@arationalist](/creator/undefined) [@jugulator__95](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [GrokCoin (GROKCOIN)](/topic/grok) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Found a question that #ChatGPT cannot answer: what will FOMC do on jan 31/feb [--] meeting Thanks goodness AI has not replaced me yet" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1617760211577745409) 2023-01-24T05:44Z 36.2K followers, [----] engagements "Powell kept talking about how pce core services ex housing barely showed signs of disinflation. We flagged this last week. 6m annualized steady at 4%. @economics" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1620879039669108737) 2023-02-01T20:17Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements "And no the analogous cpi measure is not a good proxy of the measure that Powell is looking at" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1620879045381750787) 2023-02-01T20:17Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements "@TheStalwart @elspethjane There goes powells rational inattention to inflation. You know this type of tweets will keep coming even if cpi falls to 0%" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1673799473615478784) 2023-06-27T21:04Z 12.6K followers, [--] engagements "@m3_melody @texasrunnerDFW @DiMartinoBooth @RudyHavenstein Even my plumber (who lives in rural America) owns multiple airbnb units and was talking about expanding his empirewhen that happens you know you got a bubble" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1681782473825427456) 2023-07-20T00:07Z 12.7K followers, 19.4K engagements "A 🧵 on weather and inflation. While were more optimistic about core inflation lately progress on headline is worrisome. One of the key risk I see: el nino. A little known fact: Arthur Burns indirectly blamed El Nio on contributing to out of control good prices. 1/4" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1682224322067275776) 2023-07-21T03:01Z 12.6K followers, 131.4K engagements "Dont fight the soft landing narrative This discussion at the Oct [----] FOMC meeting (2 months before the start of NBER dated recession) calls into question just how much confidence one can derive from recent soft landing calls. Hint: little. The only true signal then was SLOO" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1684385511689838593) 2023-07-30T03:44Z 12.7K followers, 105.2K engagements "How high might Treasury yields go Here is Bill Dudleys conservative estimate a month ago: Feds real short-term interest-rate target (1%) over the next decade + avg Inflation (2.5%) + bond risk premium (1%) =10-year ust yield of 4.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1687203690929618945) 2023-08-03T20:53Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "Credit ratings are procyclicalhistory of financials crises in US Europe emerging markets are replete with examples of how credit downgrades (in corporate bonds and sovereign alike) act as a financial accelerator that amplify a downturn. Some of that dynamics beginning now" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1688773230901805056) 2023-08-08T04:44Z 10K followers, 22.1K engagements "We've been suspecting that labor market is weaker than it looks. The decline in JOLTS recently seemed too small to be consistent with the ECI drop in Q2 (lately price data has seen less drastic revisions than quantity data). A thread on wage Phillips Curve (1/n) ZipRecruiter withdrew its annual earnings guidance due to atypical hiring patterns The number of job openings and employers willingness to pay for those job openings has been declining significantly from the peaks of prior years" said CEO Ian Siegel https://t.co/ouinNmSAhB https://t.co/sXzol4xOF9 ZipRecruiter withdrew its annual" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1689100278396534785) 2023-08-09T02:24Z 31K followers, 97.2K engagements "Two most interesting things to me from FOMC minutes: 1) More dissent than meets the eyes -- "A couple of participants indicated that they favored leaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that they could have supported such a proposal." (1/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1691884235190325613) 2023-08-16T18:46Z 12.6K followers, 24.2K engagements "Indeed we think Powell will channel Greenspan (not Volcker) at Jackson Hole this year. In his own words (2018 Jackson Hole): Under Greenspans leadership the FOMC "converged on a risk-management strategy that can be distilled into a simple request: Lets wait [--] more meeting."" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1693721781838704722) 2023-08-21T20:28Z 12.6K followers, 29K engagements "@JayaBajpai17 @lisaabramowicz1 @economics To calculate the contribution to saar qoq % chg for gdp or pce you need to either annualized the 8.5b before you decide (and elevate to [--] to compute the annualized growth rate) or divide the gdp or pce figures you cited by [--]. This is a common confusion" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1695161370617032983) 2023-08-25T19:48Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements "Effect of student loans payment moratorium on credit scores: The payment pause by curing existing defaults led to a particularly large change in (perceived) creditworthiness: an increase in credit score of [--] points" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1696383991429931336) 2023-08-29T04:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "An easily imaginable path of sahms rule being met in October: avg of 3.8% aug 3.8% sep 4.0% oct due to a month long govt shutdown boosting unemployment by 0.2ppt not including uaw strikes). The avg of 3.86% rounds up to be 0.5ppt than the low of 3.4% in the preceding 12m" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1697785031870079345) 2023-09-02T01:34Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements "My guess on news headline with CPI tomorrow: (1) inflation highest since mid-2022 or early Russia-Ukraine war; or (2) longest stretch of soft core cpi since inflation surged. Would be interesting to see which media outlets choose to amplify which message" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1701677002875375633) 2023-09-12T19:19Z 12.6K followers, 10.6K engagements "Our explanation for why soft landing confidence is misplaced: 1) the process governing unemployment (u) is nonlinear its distribution is multimodal with long right tail. Linear forecasting models on past labor values would tend not to predict sharp upswings. (1/2) @asokol_econ" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1703949117431415172) 2023-09-19T01:48Z 12.6K followers, 366K engagements "For more read our whole piece @TheTerminal" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1703952366423179376) 2023-09-19T02:01Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "FOMC minutes takeaways from NLP: Though risks are more two sided gross mentions of upside and downside risks for inflation and growth are both high. Yes they sum to almost neutral but that belies much uncertainty in the outlook. Tells u how much faith to place on dot plot" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1712282019684573656) 2023-10-12T01:40Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "On subprime delinquencies in credit card/auto -- Student loans forbearance inflated/distorted credit scores so subprime behavior is worse than the usual subprime and near-prime is more like subprime. Nothing like a bit of miscalculated credit risk to jumpstart credit tightening" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1716635044570161595) 2023-10-24T01:57Z 10K followers, 25.3K engagements "What a coincidence.Guess who also wrote about "Higher for shorter" last week on the Bloomberg Terminal @terminal (not too late to subscribe)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1716640889055895896) 2023-10-24T02:20Z 12.6K followers, 11.6K engagements "So q3 gdp growth was 4.9% and q4 was 0.6%no those numbers are not for [----] but the actual numbers for [----]. https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-11/gdp407a.pdf https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-11/gdp407a.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1724277579027280170) 2023-11-14T04:06Z 31K followers, 58.5K engagements "My one BIG [----] prediction: 6-12 months later we will still be arguing whether a recession has happened or not" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1725736279466275236) 2023-11-18T04:42Z [----] followers, 15.1K engagements "Collecting holiday retail sales data in the field in a state with one of lowest unemployment rate. Piling up here" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1727457656741224880) 2023-11-22T22:42Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "Underwhelming holiday retail sales was one of the first piece of data to alert certain Fed officials of a recession back in 2007/2008the holiday seasons not over yet but so far not looking good. Mastercard forecasts 3.7% y/y for the season so far 2.5% y/y for Black Friday" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1728623644207878367) 2023-11-26T03:56Z [--] followers, 133K engagements "@jalvxv People who want to forecast gdp spending component with good degree of accuracy ahead of official print" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1728626312586375247) 2023-11-26T04:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Spending between Thanksgiving and Christmas rose just [---] percent over last year the weakest performance in at least four years according to MasterCard Advisors. - (2007 nytimes). In [----] holiday sales also could be weakest in [--] yearsbut as they say just normalizing" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1728627843641573560) 2023-11-26T04:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RealFidla Right. But that is only 15% of total retail sales. Back in [----] it grew 22% y/y too" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1728631709363814703) 2023-11-26T04:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The borrower cohorts from [----] [----] and [----] notably sees higher delinquent rates in unsecured loans than older cohorts. that is true across credit tiers including superprime (folks with 780+ credit score) which saw yoy unsecured loans jumped 38.6% in q3" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1729384273159872680) 2023-11-28T06:18Z [----] followers, 18.2K engagements "Why I think credit score inflation plays a role. It remains to be seen what this means for credit availability in the coming months" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1729384277911978038) 2023-11-28T06:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "But the borrowing binge of the superprime really jumps out in the data. Turns out they are the ones buying cars in [----] and [--]. While suprime and near prime who bought earlier in the pandemic are the ones driving up delinquencies" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1729400704219980174) 2023-11-28T07:23Z [----] followers, 32.3K engagements "Given the cohort delinquency dynamics seen in the transunion data this picture below probably has another [--] ppt to climb on track to surpass 1994" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1729504846703702123) 2023-11-28T14:17Z 10K followers, 66.2K engagements "Our [----] outlook is out In short we expect the first Fed rate cut in March [----] with a total of [---] bps cut in [----]. For complete outlook available in @TheTerminal : https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S4YIPOT0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S4YIPOT0AFB4" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1730362144883884534) 2023-11-30T23:04Z 31K followers, 12K engagements "@BobEUnlimited We also mention the scenario when [---] bps happensthat requires core inflation (6m annual rate) to falls to 2% by March and unemployment going to [---] in q1 and [--] by end year. If economy is stronger than that (which is the consensus) one shouldnt be pricing in much cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1730588943626715500) 2023-12-01T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A new FRBNY paper finds that FOMC tends to be more dovish in internal discussions than in public speeches during easing cycles (no such bias for tightening cycles). Tells you just how much to discount Powells performance today" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1730709710553121165) 2023-12-01T22:05Z 10.1K followers, 32.1K engagements "It was my great pleasure to talk to @sobel_mark (my esteemed former boss at Treasury and a national treasure) to dive into the aftermath of the December FOMC meeting:" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1735364022105473456) 2023-12-14T18:19Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "Highligh from FOMC minutes: Several participants noted the risk that if labor demand were to weaken substantially further the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions. They believe in the mechanics behind Sahm Rule" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742631010699714666) 2024-01-03T19:36Z [--] followers, 48.5K engagements "Seasonal factors update in household survey tomorrow. A thought excercise: how robust is the current labor market narratives to SA issues Calendar days and weather matter for appropriate SA. [----] [----] will match calendar days but [----] el nino signal closer to [--]. (1/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743109120855609360) 2024-01-05T03:16Z [--] followers, 12.2K engagements "Lets adjust the unemployment rate using SA from those years then. Sahm rule would be farther away from triggering if use [----] factors but it would have triggered at 0.57ppt in Oct [----] using [----] factors. Conclusion: narrative is fragile. (2/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743109123300864410) 2024-01-05T03:16Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Here is the chart of the adjusted unemployment rate using [----] [----] [----] SA factors" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1743109573177663796) 2024-01-05T03:18Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "The ISM employment plummet was so sharp that I emailed the ISM folks to ensure they check if there is an error. This is their reply. So this really begs the question of why nonfarm payroll increased by that much" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1743360195240054795) 2024-01-05T19:53Z 12.6K followers, 158.3K engagements "ISM employment plunge vs NFP blowout which one will the Fed believe Here is an employment intentions diffusion index we constructed from regional Fed surveys: it shows a similar steep drop as ISM" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743375506731401636) 2024-01-05T20:54Z [--] followers, 86.3K engagements "We estimate that Decs core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1- 3- 6-month annualized measures all below 2%. Solid case for March rate cut based on inflation alone. (Wild card: cpi seasonal factors revisions in Feb)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1745904335639212105) 2024-01-12T20:23Z 12.6K followers, 52.5K engagements "@FedGuy12 This paper adopts a euphemism for what really is credit score inflation and misses the big picture issue (which is that thse who migratedcontinued to exhibit subprime behavior and the lower financing fueled more purchases than otherwise would have without the migration)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1745989571953717537) 2024-01-13T02:02Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "@SteveMiran Adding another dimension to this: most inflation indexing in the economy is to cpi not pce" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1747118131363934385) 2024-01-16T04:46Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "A weak data point Fed has in their pocket: bank credit contracting for 5-consecutive weeks from early Dec through early January (last seen in [----] and before that [----] before QE3). Hence Waller's point that financial conditions not easing. If credit goes so goes economy" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1747362069706342761) 2024-01-16T20:55Z 12.7K followers, 43.6K engagements "@stevehouf @fkronawitter1 Most of the [--] month ahead indicators in regional surveys show huge optimism. It is entirely possible that there was a downturn in q4 [--] but things are recovering. Maybe end of hiking cycles make firm optimistic. Hence fed rate cuts will determine that soft landing" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1747388229903401069) 2024-01-16T22:39Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements "Jobless claims are very low whatever seasonal factors one uses. Our latest on @theterminal assesses what the low level means. Spoiler: less unemployed people are applying for claims meaning that the low level doesn't mean it what it used to mean. (1/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1749637756794376516) 2024-01-23T03:38Z 12.7K followers, 173.8K engagements "One implication of this: when UI claims do rise to a high level then it is truly painful for people -- more so than the same level of UI in past recession.because this time around UI claims can no longer pay the bills and one must have exhausted other options" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749637761731015135) 2024-01-23T03:38Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Deja vu of China ala [----] Recall at the beginning of [----] markets priced in [--] hikes. By the end only one happened. Two most common reasons for rate cuts from our study of fed minutes: credit growth concerns and global growth" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1749647988295610503) 2024-01-23T04:19Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements "Just launched our NLP Fedspeak Index on @TheTerminal today. Our Fedspeak Index combines Bloomberg's timely Fed reporting+labels trained on my read of Fedspeak. It flagged for us Powell's Dec Dovish pivot. Right now its readings is similar to March 2019-4 months before rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1752105110497272029) 2024-01-29T23:03Z 13K followers, 39.5K engagements "@BenMillerise We didnt interpret March as off the table. He said it is unlikely given the data so far. There are still two more jobs and inflation reports (and potentially massive revisions) plus another beige book that is tracking to be bad. Our March rate hike call hinged on weaker data" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1752879150149386482) 2024-02-01T02:18Z 12.8K followers, [--] engagements "Powell said March rate cut is unlikely based on todays data. That frames the tension between our judgemental call (March cut) vs NLP fedspeak call (May cut) well: the former hinged on our forecasts of softer inflation and jobs while the latter on rhetoric based on current data" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1752880812251402694) 2024-02-01T02:25Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "For tomorrow nonfarm payroll I am looking for how close to [--] does payrolls and private payrolls get in October 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753080565602074972) 2024-02-01T15:39Z 12.9K followers, 12.1K engagements "Great thread from @Neely . We also noticed that many state UI trust funds are close to insolvency while looking into UI claims. The implication may be that states will have to seek funds from federal govt to fund rising ui benefits in a slowdown more pressure on federal deficit. "What the FUTA" A 🧵 about a tiny line item signaling significant strength in payroll taxes which might be telling us more about anemic state-level unemployment coffers and weak budgets than labor demand. "What the FUTA" A 🧵 about a tiny line item signaling significant strength in payroll taxes which might be telling" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753248533153517991) 2024-02-02T02:46Z 13.6K followers, 16.8K engagements "We are changing our Fed call to a cut in May on the basis of this jobs report. We have doubts about the January blowout but the revisions for [--] shows a hotter labor market (though even further boosted by birth death model). [--] charts:" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753443295030628780) 2024-02-02T15:40Z 12.9K followers, 28.6K engagements "BLS doubled down on birth death model further boosting [----] payrolls (data on true business closure and birth for Q3 will be released on late Feb so well see)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753443301007438317) 2024-02-02T15:40Z 13.2K followers, 88.5K engagements "Another grain of salt on January: extremely low response rate. Decembers first and second response rate are also extremely low by historical standards ( even worse than 2020-21) somethings up. This is even lower than ur household survey" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753443307290521872) 2024-02-02T15:40Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Todays payroll report shows just how hard it is to conduct policy in real time recalling how Arthur Burns had blamed the deceptive real-time data in missing on inflation. The payrolls data for [----] that will most approximate the truth will only come out in Feb [----]. (1/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1753446227587314113) 2024-02-02T15:52Z 13.5K followers, 13.7K engagements "Taylor Swift just dropped a big surprise -- new album in [----] Downside risks for the economy if Powell holds rates higher-for-longer just went down by much. FOMC should thank her" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1754359140376261009) 2024-02-05T04:19Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "@BobEUnlimited One could also argue that the concerns with China is in some way greater. While not as much capital outflows officials also seem more hesitant to put out stimulus. Chinas resilience has always been predicated on the governments ability to step in" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1754563598217605402) 2024-02-05T17:52Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements "It is hard to predict revisions but were going to stick our heads out on this CPI one - with an eye on PCE implications. Two things we predict: 1) more disinflation in end-2023 in OER and 2) less disinflation in used cars. (With intrepid @ou_estelle)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755415215380758666) 2024-02-08T02:16Z 13.6K followers, 36.4K engagements "Am reading the CBOs the accuracy of cbos budget projections for fiscal year [----] report right now. On their $1 trillion deficit miss lower income corporate import receipts. Doesnt read like the rosy picture that GDP gives. More similar to the GDI vibes" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755700926877147544) 2024-02-08T21:11Z 13.6K followers, 14.6K engagements "@SteveMiran Cbo has a chart that support your claim. It refers to the 9% underestimation of total outlays in [----] as the largest error in a projection of total outlays that the agency has recorded" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755710822460907984) 2024-02-08T21:50Z 13.2K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty stunning [----] outlook from CBO here. 10yr UST to average 4.8% in H2 [----] even with an unemployment rate that would imply a recession. If 10yr UST is still that high in a recession then it would probably make for a deep one. Unless they think R* is much higher" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755725197267595330) 2024-02-08T22:48Z 13.5K followers, 29.2K engagements "Can the world handle real estate trembles from not just one but two largest economies at the same time" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755816111449198845) 2024-02-09T04:49Z 28K followers, 20.4K engagements "A pervasive but misguided view is to dismiss contagion risks based on direct bank and trade exposure. As this great IMF paper shows in the case of the asia financial crisis the portfolio rebalancing channel played the key role. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04131.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04131.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755820882335764852) 2024-02-09T05:08Z 28K followers, [----] engagements "We dont think the CPI revisions are a nothingburger. Disinflation momentum stronger for core services (ie rents). Powells pce supercore and core pce will be lower in end-2023. More room for core goods disinflation. This has to give fed greater confidence" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755992067426140238) 2024-02-09T16:28Z 13.6K followers, 42.7K engagements "Guess what this mix will do to core pce" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1755992946137035100) 2024-02-09T16:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements "@98_tennis Because ppl think it is a nothingburger" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1756002725840466103) 2024-02-09T17:10Z 13.2K followers, [---] engagements "While tech layoffs got all the attention several state/local schools are laying off teachers and admin workers. Thats odd given how JOLTS and payrolls say education sector still short of workers. Turns out there are [--] reasons: more states are reporting budget issues and federal covid funds ($122 billion in ESSER III funds to expire in Sept 2024) declining student enrollment (relative to teachers). This may be an example of how even as nonfarm payroll shows below trend hiring you still can get layoffs in the sector. Pandemic policies continue to work through the economy in inconspicuous ways" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1757231654580490503) 2024-02-13T02:34Z 13.7K followers, 78.8K engagements "@BobEUnlimited Because the CPI revisions feed into core PCE readings in a weird way" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1757442386702041191) 2024-02-13T16:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements "Hot CPI surprise: residual seasonality If that's the case Feb reading is not gonna be nice either" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1757442832376209532) 2024-02-13T16:33Z 13.8K followers, 31.2K engagements "Applying the same logic in this reflection for todays context I substitute one word: One question to ask is whether the guidance issued was too "constraining"; in other words did it allow enough flexibility for the FOMC to begin EASING (sub for raising) the policy rate when it was appropriate to do so Ihrig and Waller review the sequence of actions taken by the FOMC between late [----] and mid-2023 to remove the very accommodative stance of monetary policy in place after the COVID-19 pandemic. #FEDSNote #EconTwitter (1/2) https://t.co/y2R4Ff86Wm Ihrig and Waller review the sequence of actions" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1757802584121672018) 2024-02-14T16:22Z 13.8K followers, [----] engagements "@LHSummers say there's 15% chance that Fed's next move is a rate hike. Guess who agrees Our NLP Fedspeak model. It has probability of rate hike at 13.3%. My takeaway is that there's hope for humanity yet. Theres a meaningful chance maybe its 15% that the next move is going to be upwards in rates not downwards. The @federalreserve is going to have to be very careful. Watch my interview w @DavidWestin tonight 6pm ET @BloombergTV Wall Street Week. https://t.co/QIPp9Rc68j Theres a meaningful chance maybe its 15% that the next move is going to be upwards in rates not downwards. The @federalreserve" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1758566443375808581) 2024-02-16T18:58Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements "What FOMC omits in the minutes says a ton. The [--] things that were absent but which you know they discussed: 1) cuts will happen before 12m change in pce inflation hits 2% (Powell Daly Goolsbee all mentioned this) 2) neutral rate may be higher (5 FOMC officials used almost verbatim language in speeches since the meeting so you know this was discussed) 3) minutes underplay officials existing confidence in disinflation but highlight upside inflation risks. Thats in contrast to Powells characterization at the news conference of officials as already confident but simply wanting more confirmation" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1760505354213790108) 2024-02-22T03:22Z 13.9K followers, 48.2K engagements "Our take on commercial real estate in comparison to the [----] bank failures - in [--] chart. Need a 40% drop in cre valuations to equate to same amount of total bank asset affected as in [----]. But cre is more spread out risk in time and across banks though smaller banks" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1761892511306392031) 2024-02-25T23:14Z 14K followers, 28.6K engagements "Noooooooo Flaco the escaped central park zoo great horned owl has passed. I dont live in NYC I havent even seen you before but my heart goes to this adventurous bird that enlivened my X feed. A lovely tribute from NYtimes: But Flaco never looked back after his escape from the zoo. Though the animal literature is peppered with stories of animals usually pets who suffer hardships and return home Flaco never retreated to the zoo. Perhaps freedom itself was the home hed discovered. And though we feared for him his new life thrilled us. How many of us our circumstances familiar and safe are too" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1762332133870219737) 2024-02-27T04:21Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements "@TheStalwart Short australian dollar relative to usd (proxy china trade)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1763706923738640728) 2024-03-01T23:24Z 14.8K followers, 14.9K engagements "X's GROK does a decent job explaining to me what the BLS's birth-death model is. But my favorite part of the answer is when he/she addresses me as "my dear human" and once he/she starts getting into dragons and wizards: GROK: "The CES survey is like a big friendly dragon that collects information from a sample of about [------] businesses and government agencies representing approximately [------] individual worksites. Now you may be wondering "Why do we need a model to estimate the impact of business births and deaths" Well my dear human the CES sample is large but it's not large enough to" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1764866515554226533) 2024-03-05T04:12Z 14K followers, [----] engagements "Turns out that [--] quarters of lags in nominal wage growth historically can predict the directional change of unemployment quite well. Based on that unemployment rate should be rising much more rapidly according to this simple model. Is job openings doing all the work Can the u rate continue to go sideways" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1765213678029119536) 2024-03-06T03:11Z 14.7K followers, 38.1K engagements "@EconBerger Hence why I am surprised at this result" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1765218339725438995) 2024-03-06T03:30Z 14K followers, [----] engagements "If you believe that AI will ultimately increase economic inequality then that channel by itself will reduce r*. (Not saying though this is the net effect. But all Ive seen so far is rather one sided discussion of the impact towards higher r*)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1767374131035529672) 2024-03-12T02:16Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements "Hot core CPI stole the thunder but the real signal is with NFIB today" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1767549989159346297) 2024-03-12T13:55Z 18.7K followers, 76.5K engagements "Based on CPI and PPI we are at 0.42% for headline PCE and 0.34% for core PCE inflation in Feb. Still we see 12-month change in core touching 2.5% before June" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1768320351421735018) 2024-03-14T16:56Z 14.9K followers, 17.5K engagements "Why I think dot plot next week will still show [--] (not 50) bps cuts for 2024: I dont think any of the [--] dots that saw 75bp cut will defect. My guesses of those [--] dots are: Goolsbee Cook Harker Jefferson Collins Williams Barr Kugler Daly Powell" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1768876562680578431) 2024-03-16T05:46Z 14.9K followers, 48.5K engagements "Another reason why it just isnt clear the median would shift to [--] bp cuts for 24: growth surprised on downside (based on [--] indicators) even as inflation surprised up" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1769878576801648777) 2024-03-19T00:08Z 15.7K followers, 57.5K engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA I am poor at detecting sarcasm but for the [----] there is a clear causal relationship as the unraveling of the yen carry trade tightened global financial conditions" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1770286629673959898) 2024-03-20T03:09Z 22.6K followers, 40.6K engagements "Strangely Powell mentioned several times unexpected intermeeting events or deterioration in labor market that could prompt earlier rate cuts. But given the low baseline for unemployment this year (4.0%) it is quite easily for it to meet that unexpected condition" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1770550245430112526) 2024-03-20T20:37Z 15K followers, 112K engagements "Another potential unexpected" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1770646996308660661) 2024-03-21T03:01Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements "Takeaway from Baltimore bridge collapse- one way that Port of Baltimore is small but important is its relative closeness to the Midwest directly linked through rail. Which is why autos and farm equipment disproportionately goes through that port" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1772740826017272297) 2024-03-26T21:42Z 15.1K followers, 10.6K engagements "Why the unemployment rate can go up even if jobless claims remain low in BLS own words: The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits. If you also believe that immigration drive hiring the last two years then you should also believe that those wont have long enough work history to be eligible for unemployment benefits were they be laid off" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1775347808939147609) 2024-04-03T02:21Z 18.7K followers, 35.2K engagements "Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working its way to other auto-related services categories. Looks like the order of spillovers go like this: car prices - car parts -car repair -car insurance. At 20% y/y increase car insurance alone add 0.6ppt to CPI" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1777813204346827116) 2024-04-09T21:37Z 15.7K followers, 43.8K engagements "Car insurance cpi jumped 2.6% in March. The problem with this kind of services inflation is that it will still keep on going in a recession. Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working its way to other auto-related services categories. Looks like the order of spillovers go like this: car prices - car parts https://t.co/NnuZZjqK5U Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1778080056687911020) 2024-04-10T15:18Z 15.7K followers, 23K engagements "How would the Fed view todays CPI surprise First consider how they view the Jan and Feb surprise: According to FOMC minutes Some participants didnt discount the strong inflation readings in January and February though a few said residual seasonality contributed to those hot readings. (1/3)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1778234739272405471) 2024-04-11T01:32Z 31K followers, 26K engagements "There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust Fed pivot just when that happens just when a second oil shock may strike officials possibly overestimating productivity Fed keen on achieving a soft landing" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1778820971677340026) 2024-04-12T16:22Z 15.9K followers, 37.8K engagements "So close yet so far. @AnnaEconomist Yes Anna here we go: boom https://t.co/BqXldX51yN @AnnaEconomist Yes Anna here we go: boom https://t.co/BqXldX51yN" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1778847662508236930) 2024-04-12T18:08Z 15.7K followers, [----] engagements "@DiMartinoBooth @BLS_gov This is for those of us who has been skewered for calling for a recession start last October. Cheers" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1783221043684934008) 2024-04-24T19:46Z 15.9K followers, 31.2K engagements "A weedy potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter So the PCE inflation uses moving weights so if the past couple months we see the expenditure pattern shifting toward services from goods particularly upweighting financials then you could more weight on the group that sees higher inflation and less weight on stuff such as cars which sees more disinflation" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1783534496219877633) 2024-04-25T16:32Z 16.2K followers, 39K engagements "@justfactsnotbs Not discrediting anything. Just explaining a puzzle" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1783537097233629383) 2024-04-25T16:42Z 15.9K followers, [---] engagements "My view on what Fed probably will do (but definitely needs to do) now on Bloomberg website. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-28/will-the-fed-cut-rates-what-60-000-headlines-say-about-its-next-move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-28/will-the-fed-cut-rates-what-60-000-headlines-say-about-its-next-move" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1784928008102449618) 2024-04-29T12:49Z 16.1K followers, 13.5K engagements "@SteveMiran The only thing to square this and i think this is what he really means is that he is putting all his chips in betting that favorable supply shocks and rents will finish the job painlessly. There is some major group think over there" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1785871577994645885) 2024-05-02T03:18Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements "I admire the ernestness of Powells answer at the presser on how the Fed wont be swayed by politics in its decisions. But lets face it there is no such thing as pure data dependency as so much of policymaking requires a normative view of the economy which in term is often influenced by ones political affiliation. Peppered in the forecasts are judgements. Some example of such questions are: - how fiscal policy affect supply vs demand (ie ira child tax credit tcja) -whether immigration net positive demand or supply shock -how much had remote schooling affected human capital (and therefore" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1786267245062008871) 2024-05-03T05:31Z 16.3K followers, 35.5K engagements "Since mid-1970s all national recessions involve California. Or put it another way the conditional probability of the national unemployment rate spiking given what California looks like right now is quite high" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1790137756292677826) 2024-05-13T21:51Z 16.8K followers, 157.3K engagements "The thing I am most eager to see in CPI: food away from home in limited meal service" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1790504259689013636) 2024-05-14T22:07Z 16.8K followers, 16K engagements "Our own growth surprises index (which uses [--] indicators) and inflation surprises index (33 indicators) are trying to tell us something. Typically they move in synch but so far this year they have moved in opposite directions. Inflation surprises also saw a U-turn in early [--] before resuming downward trend after March but the upward surprise U-turn in early [--] had persisted beyond March. Will see whether it goes back down like last year. The growth surprise index currently has the lowest reading in this Fed tightening cycle. Enough said. H/t @AnaGalvao24816 Tickers @TheTerminal are BCMPUSGR" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1791215592394936738) 2024-05-16T21:14Z 16.8K followers, 61.7K engagements "@VARshad_ @Brad_Setser @Barchart @dismaleconomist @EtraAlex @stevehouf We didnt produce this chart. But @ou_estelle from my team used to work on TIC data at the Fed probably may know" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1791457347270762799) 2024-05-17T13:14Z 16.8K followers, [---] engagements "@fcastofthemonth We are at [-----] for core pce deflator for April" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1793017334510026863) 2024-05-21T20:33Z 16.8K followers, [----] engagements "Those who said that the tight labor didnt add to inflation the past few years would be inconsistent to their own views if they now say that the incease in immigration has been disinflationary" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1793687254990541228) 2024-05-23T16:55Z 16.8K followers, 11.5K engagements "I dont think it is my illusion that business establishments have been closing left and right faster late last year" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1797761690668499185) 2024-06-03T22:46Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements "Another thread on nonfarm payrolls revisions -- An alternative jobs indicator says that the underlying pace of job growth is most likely 100k currently. @TheTerminal During the pandemic both the Fed and the CEA relied on high-frequency alternative indicators to track real-time developments in the labor market. One of those indicators is Homebase a software company that help businesses and employees track payrolls and work hours. It currently covers [------] businesses and around [--] million hourly employees in the US." Homebase can predict nonfarm payrolls well in the past but curiously the" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1798349714900889702) 2024-06-05T13:42Z 18.4K followers, 49.3K engagements "Regarding the QCEW implied large downward revisions to CES establishment payrolls one argument Ive heard these few days goes something like this: The revised payrolls next year will be wrong because the CES is capturing undocumented workers while the UI- universe which the QCEW draws from doesnt. So the CES payrolls will be benchmarked to something that is wrong. Establishment survey estimates is more accurate. I see several problems with this argument. But the first one simply is this: the QCEW serves as a sampling frame for CES and is the basis of the CES universe. The idea that" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1798552874911404282) 2024-06-06T03:09Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements "Here continues some evidence that push-back on the idea that the establishment survey is any more superior than QCEW or Household survey in measuring undocumented workers. From April's Beige book the mentions of immigrants in Kansas and SF districts. Here's Kansas: "The number of foreign-born workers available for hire rose in the District. However few contacts indicated that immigrant workers were a notable source of new labor supply as barriers to hiring were difficult to overcome. Non-wage benefit costs grew at a modest pace. Most employers indicated increases in healthcare benefit costs" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1798755637607698881) 2024-06-06T16:35Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements "@DiMartinoBooth Sad" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1798826025247490428) 2024-06-06T21:15Z 18K followers, [---] engagements "Measurement issues of nonfarm payroll should rise onto the top of Fed's policy work agenda. For this May's nonfarm we took a different approach to forecasting nonfarm payrolls by forecasting both the "false" number and the "true number" (the latter guided our unemployment rate). And it worked out well -- we're the only shop that forecasted this dueling narrative of rising unemployment rate and robust nonfarm payrolls.and yes that's after hard lessons from last year" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1799070374518489096) 2024-06-07T13:26Z 18.6K followers, 95.6K engagements "Among many things that can be bad this is particularly bad. Rural America will increasingly become invisible. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reducing the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints. https://t.co/llQMwmzCvh via @economics The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reducing the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints. https://t.co/llQMwmzCvh via @economics" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1799166049822150828) 2024-06-07T19:46Z 18.4K followers, 24K engagements "This years Jackson Hole topic is reassesssing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Powells speech will come [--] days before the news release version of QCEW 2024q1. Papers on the conference are in full swing and likely completed. But how many of them will conclude that monetary policy has not been powerful this cycle on the basis of using the unrevised nonfarm payroll data In my view this conference probably comes [--] years too early (should do it in [----] when they have the revised data). And if past lags of rate hikes on unemployment is true (18-24 months) this reassessment is also touching on" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1799805071619707371) 2024-06-09T14:05Z 18.6K followers, 61.4K engagements "Powell wouldnt single out housing price inflation as trigger to cut. How about mens underwear prices and sales (as Greenspan would)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1800974442522116502) 2024-06-12T19:32Z 18.7K followers, [----] engagements "And I will probably have these [--] things the next three weeks on my vacation to see family. Until the next payrolls (That is unless nexts retail sales show mens underwear sales plummeting) nailed it. @FerroTV nailed it. @FerroTV" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1801070017607237643) 2024-06-13T01:52Z 18.7K followers, [----] engagements "AndIm back. Seriously this is the last of mens underwear today. Here is Alan Greenspan on how mens underpants are a prescient economic indicator of trouble (in all senses). Note the timing. https://www.npr.org/2008/01/01/17759341/alan-greenspans-underwear-drawer https://www.npr.org/2008/01/01/17759341/alan-greenspans-underwear-drawer" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1801072963313107367) 2024-06-13T02:03Z 18.7K followers, 14.8K engagements "Great that Powell acknowledged payrolls are overstated yesterday now staff can scrutinize the issue. Philly Fed just released the q4 [--] early benchmark estimates - once again foreshadowing big revisions down. CES says payrolls grew 1.6% in q4 Philly Fed early benchmark says 0.3%. One can say that if you use wedge method on average monthly payrolls would only be revised down 60k nothing alarming. But labor market dynamics is governed by nonlinearities. Momentum matters. And here the Philly Fed data shows clearly how fast things were cooling throughout [----]. Early in the year most states had" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1801314231179948348) 2024-06-13T18:02Z 18.7K followers, 73K engagements "Was at NABE conference to listen to Kuglers speech (good one shows sensitivity to data nuances). Key take away: she said she would support earlier cuts only if unemployment rate increase is driven by layoffs. So sounds like the Fed is not feeling urgency because of the belief that unemployment increase due to labor force expansion is nothing to worry about. Problem with that is that past recessions all start with labor force expansion and usually only about two quarters into recessions do layoffs rise sharply. Below chart shows the decomposition of unemployment in past recessions. Also note" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1813322387389284853) 2024-07-16T21:18Z 19.9K followers, 70.7K engagements "Waller is so confident about soft landing that none of his three scenarios in his speech today involve ever climbing unemployment rates" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1813704400407523682) 2024-07-17T22:36Z 19.7K followers, 10.9K engagements "This chart is pretty striking. Shows the share of new [--] day delinquencies citing unemployment for reason of delinquency of FHA single family loan. H/t gopal sharath Source: http://hud.gov http://hud.gov" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1814383200321581258) 2024-07-19T19:33Z 20K followers, 199.6K engagements "Now that Sahm Rule is triggered what happens next Would unemployment rate continuously rise by another 1.9-2.0ppt as it always had @chrisgcollins1 and I wrote about this ahead of the July report here: Using CPS micro data we found that unemployment of the immigrant cohort from 2022-2024 has been rising swiftly from the past six months. As for June their unemployment rate was over 11%. The July report shows that the foreign-born (which does not differentiate between new arrivals vs earlier) unemployment rate had increased faster than the native-born rate on NSA basis from 4.2% in June to 4.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1819375093694316707) 2024-08-02T14:09Z 22.5K followers, 117.8K engagements "Next narrative in markets I think is not whether Fed is doing [--] bps cut in Sept but could.an intermeeting cut. Not that I think will happen. But market narratives matter" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1819378122627702888) 2024-08-02T14:22Z 36.3K followers, 19.1K engagements "@macrodelics Maybe a stock market crash Market narratives matter" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1819379352913506443) 2024-08-02T14:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "If the Fed has a singular inflation target mandate maybe it should not cut. But if the Fed has dual mandate it should cut" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1819416202965287080) 2024-08-02T16:53Z 22.2K followers, 10.3K engagements "There is a lot of chatters about whether last Fridays weak payrolls was because of Hurricane Beryl: my answerno. The sectors that led the declines (white collor jobs) arent the ones that typically drove declines in hurricanes affected payrolls. Food services and constructionwhere the hurricane effect should show updidnt seem affected. But we also already know from jobless claims that around 20k in Texas was indeed affected by storm and probably not paid. To square the circle one explanation (our preferred one) was that the storm affected area had lower relative response rate to the ces survey" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1820293512908198295) 2024-08-05T02:59Z 22.7K followers, 27.1K engagements "Its been tough being a bear but we have forecasted unemployment to rise to 4.3% in Q3 and 4.5% by end-2024 since early this year. But even I am surprised by how quickly everyone is abandoning the previous narrative. Our midyear note here. https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SFMU9TDWX2PS https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SFMU9TDWX2PS" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1820296793583759401) 2024-08-05T03:12Z 22.5K followers, 35.1K engagements "What would deal market a further blow is if a very active hurricane season this fall deal some more supply shocks to inflation so inflation data wont cooperate with Fed rate cuts. Think this is the last thing on peoples mind tho. Per @NWSNHC on Hurricane #Debby: "the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina with an increasing likelihood of catastrophic flooding." https://t.co/uzLPQkmcb0 Per @NWSNHC on Hurricane #Debby: "the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1820311037314285755) 2024-08-05T04:09Z 22.5K followers, 16K engagements "This is what happened to GDP q1 [----] print from first print to now. The recession began March [----]. If the point is to get at the ground truth I would downweigh things that get revised so drastically" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1820894752759541778) 2024-08-06T18:48Z 23K followers, 217.5K engagements "The reason why policymakers need to seriously consider the possibility that the economy is slowing much more than data appear is that by doing so they could increase the chance of soft landing. Complete denial or downplaying that will just do the opposite. Consider this conversation between Greenspan and other fomc member on 1/3/2001 in the unscheduled meeting where Greenspan pushed for 50-bps emergency cuts post dotcom bubble bust. (Following is a much seriously simplified paraphrase by me): Other fomc participants: Chairman greenspan We are wary of projecting too much that we made a policy" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1820922117518442501) 2024-08-06T20:37Z 22.9K followers, 58.5K engagements "Just out today June consumer credit. Here is how revolving look. Does it look like it is normalizing" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821299571353645432) 2024-08-07T21:37Z 26.8K followers, 116.3K engagements "Only 25% of the unemployed is filing for unemployment benefits in July. That has further dropped from 31% in the beginning of the year and this is while unemployment rate is rising. In comparison the recipient rate was 40% pre-1990 and [----] recessions. In this aspect this time indeed is different (maybe claims only as useful as in [----] as leading indicator)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821685521665638467) 2024-08-08T23:10Z 32K followers, 137.9K engagements "So markets just had the best day since Nov [----] and then a bunch of FOMC officials come out and say theres no urgency to cut rates. Do you think that will actually further spook markets or unreverse the unwinding of yen carry trade" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821687476781756927) 2024-08-08T23:18Z 32K followers, 13.9K engagements "@EconBerger Chat gpt just told me that even temporarily laid off workers are eligible to apply for UI. Am i missing your point" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821688904405418087) 2024-08-08T23:24Z 32.1K followers, [----] engagements "@DanielBZhao @EconBerger Good find In our deep dive piece we identified eligibility issue as the key. This thing corroborates that" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821712627321729039) 2024-08-09T00:58Z 32.1K followers, [---] engagements "Heres another forward looking thing to think about: so the CPI and PPI next week while likely to be soft also likely suggest that core PCE inflation will drift back up to 2.7-2.8% (from 2.6%). You think markets gonna like that (Genuine question)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821715950812721596) 2024-08-09T01:11Z 32.1K followers, 38.4K engagements "@MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision This is bad" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1821996983772705102) 2024-08-09T19:48Z 32.1K followers, [----] engagements "Revisiting this post from last fall on the statistical nature of the unemployment rate. The consensus peak forecast for it and the Fomcs hovers at 4.0% for most of this year. That likely reflects the mean conditional forecast that assumes linearity. I sure hope the FOMC is looking at the fan chart/quantile regressions forecasts rather than that mean forecast right now. Our explanation for why soft landing confidence is misplaced: 1) the process governing unemployment (u) is nonlinear its distribution is multimodal with long right tail. Linear forecasting models on past labor values would tend" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1822111295589777540) 2024-08-10T03:22Z 32K followers, 46.5K engagements "@NeelyTamminga Thanks This is compared to the consensus earlier in the year" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1823488523426783452) 2024-08-13T22:35Z 32.1K followers, 13K engagements "The seasonally adjusted cpi primary rents in LA does look a bit unusually high. H/t @JonathanJLevin" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1823837810660405421) 2024-08-14T21:43Z 32.1K followers, 22.1K engagements "One quirk about core PCE inflation is that it uses ppi measure for car insurance. We learned that cpi car insurance jumped in July after a string of strong readings in the past couple years. But not ppi. But do you know the cumulative auto insurance inflation in CPI is more than 2x the PCE (50% vs 22% since dec 2021)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1823856998586462709) 2024-08-14T22:59Z 32.1K followers, 15.6K engagements "@Mkt_Troglodyte @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision NSN SEJYDTDWLU68GO US INSIGHT: Unexpected Spark for Fed Cuts Hidden in Plain View" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1824850378724426004) 2024-08-17T16:46Z 32.1K followers, [---] engagements "@leadlagreport @DiMartinoBooth Would this summer camp pull forward the liquidity event you predict to August Given that all these money managers are in holed up in a Maine lake rather then providing liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1824889037938729158) 2024-08-17T19:20Z 32K followers, 11.8K engagements "@BobEUnlimited This kind of discrepancy offers a great investment opportunity and huge incentive to have the correct read of the macro situation" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1825263385581174939) 2024-08-18T20:07Z 32K followers, [----] engagements "@tomkeene @grok This is actuallyreally accurate" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1825558993064128924) 2024-08-19T15:42Z 32K followers, [----] engagements "So the BLS prelim benchmark revision is -818k (in line with our 800k forecast). But the 1Q QCEW county data implies a bigger revision of -958k. To put this in context the typical revision is 0.1% of payrollsthe past year was 0.5% 5x as large" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1826304096745521541) 2024-08-21T17:03Z 31.5K followers, 129.5K engagements "Another key quote from fomc minutes the key here is that many is actually two notches higher than severalso very low bar for [--] bps cuts: Many participants noted that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity or employment. A couple participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way. Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a resurgence in aggregate demand and a reversal of the progress on inflation. These participants" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1826332878608945291) 2024-08-21T18:57Z 32K followers, 21.6K engagements "Former BLS commissioner has spoken. The big downward preliminary revisions to non-farm employment (-818000) announced this morning by BLS probably stem from overestimating the number of firms in the economy. Slowing as well as recovering economies often post challenges for BLS's "birth/death" model which BLS The big downward preliminary revisions to non-farm employment (-818000) announced this morning by BLS probably stem from overestimating the number of firms in the economy. Slowing as well as recovering economies often post challenges for BLS's "birth/death" model which BLS" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1826346046542545341) 2024-08-21T19:50Z 31.4K followers, 118.8K engagements "To elaborate on former BLS Commissioner Beachs explanation here is what he meant in picture: Net establishment counts changes is 51% lower compared to a year ago. And yet the monthly nonfarm payrolls are using very very similar birth and death jobs forecasts as in [----] so far every month in [----]. That is why the April and July [----] payroll when all revisions are done by [----] has a very good chance of being near zero or negative" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1826458797889434111) 2024-08-22T03:18Z 31.5K followers, 83.3K engagements "To elaborate on why this is my takeaway: he didnt say anything about the need to be gradual or methodical. He didnt characterize the risks as even but rather it simply changed. Language used to describe labor market is assured ie cooling is unmistakable and cooler than in [----]. There is a notch more urgency in this framing than his July appearance" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1827013457868149062) 2024-08-23T16:02Z 32.1K followers, 16.3K engagements "@stevehouf Actually the low interest rate was one of the [--] original mandate of the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1828181910691913738) 2024-08-26T21:25Z 32K followers, [----] engagements "For gloom and doom commentary look no further than the comments section of the Dallas Fed Services Activity: "As a search and staffing firm in the business of hiring not only in North Texas but across Texas and the U.S. we have felt like we are in a recession now for months. Senior vice presidents of talent acquisition at [-----] employee businesses have told us confidentially they are not backfilling roles when existing employees leave the company. Fortune [---] clients have put hiring freezes in place. Mid-market companies are posting fake jobs to pipeline candidates for when they can hire" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1828454683708362783) 2024-08-27T15:29Z 61.4K followers, 148.8K engagements "So John Williams and Goolsbee were already pushing for a rate cut in July" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1828544564455428510) 2024-08-27T21:26Z 31.6K followers, 30.4K engagements "Yes. Not to mention that demographic group of interest te this issue is not in professional and business services. There is no actual evidence that there are half a million people that make it into payroll statistics but not the UI systempure speculation from GS 🙄 There is no actual evidence that there are half a million people that make it into payroll statistics but not the UI systempure speculation from GS 🙄" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1828793147075531057) 2024-08-28T13:53Z 31.5K followers, 30.1K engagements "We found a similar conclusion. Of the [--] bps increase in unemployment rate in July we could attribute [--] bps at most to Hurricane. That would mean Julys unemployment rate would have been 4.22%- rounded to 4.2%- in the absence of the hurricane. The rest a lot due to higher than normal temp layoffs in education (related to expiration of pandemic federal aid) manufacturing (hint on weak ISM manufacturing next Tuesday) and construction (housing sector slowing). Finally we find temp layoffs lead non temporary layoffs by [--] months in the past. I thought we settled this a while ago but I keep seeing" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1829323193494171966) 2024-08-30T01:00Z 31.5K followers, 84.2K engagements "In fact the recession from 1974-75 the worst one at the time post WWII and the one that sealed Arthur Burns notoriety can dispel the notion that an unemployment driven by labor force expansion and temp layoffs can be dismissed as benign. Even though there are obvious differences with todays context it suggests these two factors are not exceptional. Payrolls didnt turn negative until 11th month in that recession. (Because economy had significant labor shortage in the lead up) March [----] marked the beginning of the continuous rise in unemployment. At that month only 49% of unemployment are job" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1829343438556291136) 2024-08-30T02:20Z 31.5K followers, 59.1K engagements "Could it be that net foreign savings measurement issue plays athe key role in the GDP and GDI discrepancy In the 4q up to [----] q1 the international BOP discrepancy is 0.7% of GDP. This chart seems to suggest they do kind of comove. Statistical discrepancies in the US balance of payment tend to be large in times of global financial turmoil. It is somehow quite sizable in the past [--] quarters. More possible conjectures: could the international discrepancy be coming from the current account side particularly the US-China goods side as @Brad_Setser has lately written a lot of current account" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1829632278709874866) 2024-08-30T21:28Z 31.5K followers, 24.9K engagements "Lacy Hunt mentioned the long tentacles of payrolls revisions on other upstream economic indicators. Some of them I identified are: personal income (lower) which also means saving rate (lower) GDI (lower). Ultimately GDP (lower). There is this myth that GDI always get revised toward GDP. It is a myth because turns out that GDI leads GDP in turning points of the economy (per BEA and Fed research). And GDP tends to get revised toward GDI in lead up to and during recessionsthough obvious only several years later. The discrepancy is GDP and GDI also turns out to be predictive of unemployment rate" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1829737714226233808) 2024-08-31T04:27Z 32.1K followers, 229.7K engagements "How the GDI and GDP gap has predictive properties on unemployment" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1829739955976900766) 2024-08-31T04:36Z 31.6K followers, 16.3K engagements "Construction payrolls should cool possibly sharply aboutimminently. Our leading indicator leads by [--] months. It is about that time. @TheTerminal Our latest: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SJ9CI7T1UM0W https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SJ9CI7T1UM0W" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831180440985546938) 2024-09-04T04:00Z 40.7K followers, 108.2K engagements "@DonMiami3 @TheTerminal The fall in the Amber line really accelerated in April which means November should show up in payrolls clearly if we go by [--] month lags. But the amber line started to fall in September [----] so the payrolls fall could be earlier" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831189548597907875) 2024-09-04T04:36Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements "Recall the October beige book is what did it for Powell for him to pivot last December. This beige book is even worse than that one. I think Powell is going to strongly push for a [--] bps now" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831406278612283763) 2024-09-04T18:57Z 31.5K followers, 176.2K engagements "Mentions of the word decline spiked in beige book. [--] out of [--] districts reporting declining or flat activity and the other [--] just grew slightly is not consistent with a GDP growth of 2%" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831427474292625693) 2024-09-04T20:21Z 31.5K followers, 43.3K engagements "I thought markets overreacted to JOLTS today but underreacted to Beige book. In Powells words what he thinks of Beige book (and also GDP): I spent most of my life in the private sector looking at companies-individual companies individual management teams and then building out from that. And so starting with GDP data is and working into what's actually affecting people's lives is is challenging. It's very hard. So I I really like anecdotal data. In addition as you know the [--] Reserve Banks have really the best network of anyone. In all their Districts they're talking to you know not just the" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831511503943471552) 2024-09-05T01:55Z 31.4K followers, 95.9K engagements "@bryancrav Very interesting. Can you also run it through this July [----] beige book https://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080723/default.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080723/default.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831532735904571584) 2024-09-05T03:20Z 31.5K followers, [---] engagements "I agree with Julia that this Beige book is the most downbeat one in ages. For example it reads even worse than July 2008s. From July 2008: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that the pace of economic activity slowed somewhat since the last report. Five eastern Districts noted a weakening or softening in their overall economies while Chicago characterized its economy as sluggish and Kansas City noted a moderation in growth. St. Louis said activity was stable and San Francisco reported little or no growth. Cleveland and Minneapolis reported slight increases in economic" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831533272444092814) 2024-09-05T03:22Z 31.6K followers, 74.3K engagements "A short thread about a curious observation from unemployment forecasts ahead of tomorrows make or break jobs report. Of the [--] submissions to Bloomberg survey for Augusts unemployment forecast the overwhelming majority (72%) expect it to fall from Julys 4.3%. The realized unemployment values for each monthly payroll report from April-July [----] have come in above the mean Bloomberg forecasters expectation by [---] [----] [---] and [--] standard deviations in April May June and July respectively. On average and under a bell curve that is above 94% of forecasters. If you take the mean deviations in the" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831811293671764302) 2024-09-05T21:47Z 31.6K followers, 88K engagements "@3birdsinthehand No. But some interesting AI folks on twitter were using Claude to process beige book yesterday" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1831898717248745942) 2024-09-06T03:34Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements "Fastest way to stimulate the economy: have Taylor Swift add to her [--] Eras concerts in Q4. But that would probably push personal saving rate to 2%" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834058178826228190) 2024-09-12T02:35Z 31.6K followers, 18.3K engagements "Frontloading over. Biggest ever one-week drop in cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to New York. Since hitting a July peak below $6000 pr 40ft box the Drewy global #container #shipping index has seen a sharp reversal slumping 13% this past week alone to $4168 slowing the YTD advance to https://t.co/DB0IhyOvbx Biggest ever one-week drop in cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to New York. Since hitting a July peak below $6000 pr 40ft box the Drewy global #container #shipping index has seen a sharp reversal slumping 13% this past week alone to $4168 slowing the YTD advance to" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834228907429576881) 2024-09-12T13:53Z 31.5K followers, 37.5K engagements "Next stage after frontloading: cannabalizing. After that: offloading" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834356575500132728) 2024-09-12T22:21Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements "Rare to go into a FOMC meeting with this split odds. If it remains this split tomorrow chances are Fed needs to signal one way or another before the meeting probably Monday" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834415565105934543) 2024-09-13T02:15Z 31.5K followers, 56.7K engagements "@Brad_Setser I will also argue that the US current account deficit is understatedwhich would be more consistent with the direction of us private savings and public savings are traveling" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834440500381667806) 2024-09-13T03:54Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements "You know we are in this predicament right now (close to even odds on [--] vs [--] bps next week) because Powell is pushing behind the scene. The Beige book strikes again" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1834733412998934714) 2024-09-13T23:18Z 31.5K followers, 48.3K engagements "If these odds continue to swing in favor of [--] on Monday and the gap opens up even if there is no additional Fed signal I think we have an answer" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1835515235223961969) 2024-09-16T03:05Z 31.6K followers, 67.8K engagements "Key is where are the gross capital flows heading to Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23 for only the third time since [----]. The other two times were 2008-11 and [----]. https://t.co/p6lSB6juZh Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23 for only the third time since [----]. The other two times were 2008-11 and [----]. https://t.co/p6lSB6juZh" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1836125369272848777) 2024-09-17T19:29Z 31.5K followers, 25.7K engagements "Beige book strikes again. I don't follow the Fed. But I do sit near @AnnaEconomist. And earlier this week she told me the Fed would probably go with [--] bps. Anna was right. Slightly less than half of you were wrong. https://t.co/1syNC4idXX I don't follow the Fed. But I do sit near @AnnaEconomist. And earlier this week she told me the Fed would probably go with [--] bps. Anna was right. Slightly less than half of you were wrong. https://t.co/1syNC4idXX" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1836472329557143880) 2024-09-18T18:28Z 31.6K followers, 39.9K engagements "Powell mentioned he will be mentally adjusting down the payrolls number because of revisions. That adjustment should be about 91k per month we estimate" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1836484033267798178) 2024-09-18T19:14Z 31.5K followers, 72.2K engagements "The [--] stressful Ds of life: Debt Deaths Divorce Dismissals Disasters = Delinquency The last D for those delinquent on FHA loans is: Disappearance (aka no contact) H/T: @atanzi" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1838332388306276841) 2024-09-23T21:39Z 31.6K followers, 71.6K engagements "Here is one chart that shows why this port strike though massive in scale wont be a repeat of pandemic style inflation: Inventories are elevated relative to sales (in fact the highest since [----] and 2020) for the most affected imports categories. Strong demand is a prerequisite to turning adverse supply shocks into a major inflation episode. That is not there in the large affected imports categories. (Though your coffee cheese bananas will probably be more costly) Our piece today on impact of the strike: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SKOU5TT0G1KW" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1841311639133364679) 2024-10-02T02:57Z 32.1K followers, 77K engagements "Another way to reason that the supply shocks arent translating to inflation: so far businesses havent done so even though freight rate had risen to pandemic high in the past year. Firms margin are absorbing the shock. The same reasoning would apply for tariffs" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1841316650269766061) 2024-10-02T03:17Z 32.1K followers, 10.3K engagements "This is a bit scary. And hitting the October payroll weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1843444580387000724) 2024-10-08T00:13Z 30.9K followers, 59.1K engagements "FOMC minutes basically showed the Powell basically pushed the committee to do [--] bps in September. Key passage is this (with quantity words highlighted): "Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way. Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a stalling or a reversal of the progress on inflation. Some participants" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1844096001998778411) 2024-10-09T19:22Z 40.5K followers, 212K engagements "So there is a fertilizer company in Tampa whose facilities is half of US production capacity and 12% of global supply. They are in the path of Milton" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1844121112264966617) 2024-10-09T21:01Z 38.3K followers, 285.7K engagements "Thought these charts from NY Fed's survey of consumer expectations are striking: Respondents of high numeracy (positively correlated to income and education) has a dimmer unemployment outlook than those with lower numeracy. And the divergence between the two is the biggest in the history of the series. That may reflect the fact that most layoffs in the past couple years had been concentrated in white collar jobs. But even so job security of low income has also been rising" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1846217346605523293) 2024-10-15T15:51Z 31K followers, 12.2K engagements "On brighter news the NY Fed prob of losing job minus finding one has improved since April" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1846223320515002857) 2024-10-15T16:15Z 31K followers, [----] engagements "On delinquency expectations in the next [--] months the sharp increase is coming from the Sandwich generation. Inflation has come down but in macro models inflationary periods distort price levels and those relative changes are still working through the economy (and less understood)" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1846234608414687280) 2024-10-15T17:00Z 31.4K followers, 12.2K engagements "In the Fed's upcoming policy review I would like to see them clarify/address whether the FAIT is or can turn symmetric. Being late to raising rates had led to more elevated price level than otherwise esp if FAIT is going to be asymmetric" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1846235901594087439) 2024-10-15T17:05Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements "Is the drop in unemployment rate in September signaling that the worst is over for the labor market @chrisgcollins1 and I looked into it. So the 430k increase in employment in CPS survey is driven by the 785k in government jobs. CPS is volatile but this is a [---] sd move way more volatile than usual (0.1% in historical distribution). We see three potential explanations as most plausible: [--]. Election. Record donations and spending is showing up as hiring in swing states and increase in protective services jobs" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1848486895329611894) 2024-10-21T22:09Z 36.5K followers, 183.8K engagements "How may the Fed respond to tariffs In the tealbook in September [----] staff did a alt sim on what happens with a [--] ppt increase on tariff. Some points: [--]. Model found the inflation is transitory roughly [--] ppt higher. [--]. If the Fed raise rates in response recession will ensue. [--]. If the Fed look through the tariffs model found the inflation outcome is little changed from raising rates. But recession avoided. Conclusion from the exercise: The see through policy would seem an appropriate response to a tariff hike. This is straight from Fed staff simulations. The assumption for this outcome is" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1851354451820552218) 2024-10-29T20:04Z 67.1K followers, 104.9K engagements "This Fridays payroll is a tough one to forecast as so much of it depends on the hurricanes. We penciled in a hit of 150kbut it could by smaller or larger. Full piece here: One way we arrived at this is that @chrisgcollins1 from my team mapped the affected counties to the QCEW and we observed similarities to Irma from [----] to which we benchmarked. https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1851754334003843461) 2024-10-30T22:33Z 67.1K followers, 77.3K engagements "The key difference is the timing of Milton in the reference period. That could make the hurricane Milton hit smaller" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1851754340140355609) 2024-10-30T22:33Z 67.1K followers, 25.5K engagements ":) BTW. There's one shop that basically nailed today's jobs report https://t.co/LES44YiCix BTW. There's one shop that basically nailed today's jobs report https://t.co/LES44YiCix" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1852358928996213166) 2024-11-01T14:35Z 36.4K followers, 485.9K engagements "This is such amazing news A big win for the Bureau and for the Current Population Survey. Thanks for your invaluable help Sara. A big win for the Bureau and for the Current Population Survey. Thanks for your invaluable help Sara" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1852418511920083231) 2024-11-01T18:32Z 36.4K followers, 35.1K engagements "Trump trade surging at this time" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1853997459673952602) 2024-11-06T03:06Z 36.4K followers, 25.8K engagements "A recent natural experiment that inform on liklihood that firms may pass through potential tariffs to CPI: container rates from Asia increased about 100% in the past year. That is roughly about doubling the tariffs to China. And yet the goods more exposed to those cost shocks appeared to be more deflationary than others less exposed. Possible explanation: Chinas deflationary pressure dollar appreciation are playing stronger role that those cost shocks or firms are just taking the margin hit. Another piece of evidence today as @fcastofthemonth pointed out apparel inflation is the lowest in a" [X Link](https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1856740258567618564) 2024-11-13T16:45Z 36.7K followers, 69.9K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@AnnaEconomist Anna Wong
Anna Wong posts on X about inflation, fomc, fed, tariffs the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +507%
- [--] Month [---------] +513%
- [--] Months [---------] -34%
- [--] Year [----------] +151%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] +100%
- [--] Months [---] -22%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +3.50%
- [--] Month [------] +7.70%
- [--] Months [------] +20%
- [--] Year [------] +83%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries technology brands stocks cryptocurrencies travel destinations currencies social networks us election automotive brands
Social topic influence inflation #171, fomc, fed, tariffs, china, gdp, ai, in the, bloomberg, powell
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @theterminal @grok @chrisgcollins1 @atanzi @dimartinobooth @stevemiran @thestalwart @ouestelle @bradsetser @bobeunlimited @econberger @tdurie95 @economics @stevehouf @donmiami3 @kobeissiletter @secscottbessent @renmacllc @arationalist @jugulator__95
Top assets mentioned April (APRIL) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) GrokCoin (GROKCOIN) Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Found a question that #ChatGPT cannot answer: what will FOMC do on jan 31/feb [--] meeting Thanks goodness AI has not replaced me yet"
X Link 2023-01-24T05:44Z 36.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Powell kept talking about how pce core services ex housing barely showed signs of disinflation. We flagged this last week. 6m annualized steady at 4%. @economics"
X Link 2023-02-01T20:17Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements
"And no the analogous cpi measure is not a good proxy of the measure that Powell is looking at"
X Link 2023-02-01T20:17Z 36.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@TheStalwart @elspethjane There goes powells rational inattention to inflation. You know this type of tweets will keep coming even if cpi falls to 0%"
X Link 2023-06-27T21:04Z 12.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@m3_melody @texasrunnerDFW @DiMartinoBooth @RudyHavenstein Even my plumber (who lives in rural America) owns multiple airbnb units and was talking about expanding his empirewhen that happens you know you got a bubble"
X Link 2023-07-20T00:07Z 12.7K followers, 19.4K engagements
"A 🧵 on weather and inflation. While were more optimistic about core inflation lately progress on headline is worrisome. One of the key risk I see: el nino. A little known fact: Arthur Burns indirectly blamed El Nio on contributing to out of control good prices. 1/4"
X Link 2023-07-21T03:01Z 12.6K followers, 131.4K engagements
"Dont fight the soft landing narrative This discussion at the Oct [----] FOMC meeting (2 months before the start of NBER dated recession) calls into question just how much confidence one can derive from recent soft landing calls. Hint: little. The only true signal then was SLOO"
X Link 2023-07-30T03:44Z 12.7K followers, 105.2K engagements
"How high might Treasury yields go Here is Bill Dudleys conservative estimate a month ago: Feds real short-term interest-rate target (1%) over the next decade + avg Inflation (2.5%) + bond risk premium (1%) =10-year ust yield of 4.5%"
X Link 2023-08-03T20:53Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit ratings are procyclicalhistory of financials crises in US Europe emerging markets are replete with examples of how credit downgrades (in corporate bonds and sovereign alike) act as a financial accelerator that amplify a downturn. Some of that dynamics beginning now"
X Link 2023-08-08T04:44Z 10K followers, 22.1K engagements
"We've been suspecting that labor market is weaker than it looks. The decline in JOLTS recently seemed too small to be consistent with the ECI drop in Q2 (lately price data has seen less drastic revisions than quantity data). A thread on wage Phillips Curve (1/n) ZipRecruiter withdrew its annual earnings guidance due to atypical hiring patterns The number of job openings and employers willingness to pay for those job openings has been declining significantly from the peaks of prior years" said CEO Ian Siegel https://t.co/ouinNmSAhB https://t.co/sXzol4xOF9 ZipRecruiter withdrew its annual"
X Link 2023-08-09T02:24Z 31K followers, 97.2K engagements
"Two most interesting things to me from FOMC minutes: 1) More dissent than meets the eyes -- "A couple of participants indicated that they favored leaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that they could have supported such a proposal." (1/2)"
X Link 2023-08-16T18:46Z 12.6K followers, 24.2K engagements
"Indeed we think Powell will channel Greenspan (not Volcker) at Jackson Hole this year. In his own words (2018 Jackson Hole): Under Greenspans leadership the FOMC "converged on a risk-management strategy that can be distilled into a simple request: Lets wait [--] more meeting.""
X Link 2023-08-21T20:28Z 12.6K followers, 29K engagements
"@JayaBajpai17 @lisaabramowicz1 @economics To calculate the contribution to saar qoq % chg for gdp or pce you need to either annualized the 8.5b before you decide (and elevate to [--] to compute the annualized growth rate) or divide the gdp or pce figures you cited by [--]. This is a common confusion"
X Link 2023-08-25T19:48Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Effect of student loans payment moratorium on credit scores: The payment pause by curing existing defaults led to a particularly large change in (perceived) creditworthiness: an increase in credit score of [--] points"
X Link 2023-08-29T04:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"An easily imaginable path of sahms rule being met in October: avg of 3.8% aug 3.8% sep 4.0% oct due to a month long govt shutdown boosting unemployment by 0.2ppt not including uaw strikes). The avg of 3.86% rounds up to be 0.5ppt than the low of 3.4% in the preceding 12m"
X Link 2023-09-02T01:34Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements
"My guess on news headline with CPI tomorrow: (1) inflation highest since mid-2022 or early Russia-Ukraine war; or (2) longest stretch of soft core cpi since inflation surged. Would be interesting to see which media outlets choose to amplify which message"
X Link 2023-09-12T19:19Z 12.6K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Our explanation for why soft landing confidence is misplaced: 1) the process governing unemployment (u) is nonlinear its distribution is multimodal with long right tail. Linear forecasting models on past labor values would tend not to predict sharp upswings. (1/2) @asokol_econ"
X Link 2023-09-19T01:48Z 12.6K followers, 366K engagements
"For more read our whole piece @TheTerminal"
X Link 2023-09-19T02:01Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"FOMC minutes takeaways from NLP: Though risks are more two sided gross mentions of upside and downside risks for inflation and growth are both high. Yes they sum to almost neutral but that belies much uncertainty in the outlook. Tells u how much faith to place on dot plot"
X Link 2023-10-12T01:40Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"On subprime delinquencies in credit card/auto -- Student loans forbearance inflated/distorted credit scores so subprime behavior is worse than the usual subprime and near-prime is more like subprime. Nothing like a bit of miscalculated credit risk to jumpstart credit tightening"
X Link 2023-10-24T01:57Z 10K followers, 25.3K engagements
"What a coincidence.Guess who also wrote about "Higher for shorter" last week on the Bloomberg Terminal @terminal (not too late to subscribe)"
X Link 2023-10-24T02:20Z 12.6K followers, 11.6K engagements
"So q3 gdp growth was 4.9% and q4 was 0.6%no those numbers are not for [----] but the actual numbers for [----]. https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-11/gdp407a.pdf https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-11/gdp407a.pdf"
X Link 2023-11-14T04:06Z 31K followers, 58.5K engagements
"My one BIG [----] prediction: 6-12 months later we will still be arguing whether a recession has happened or not"
X Link 2023-11-18T04:42Z [----] followers, 15.1K engagements
"Collecting holiday retail sales data in the field in a state with one of lowest unemployment rate. Piling up here"
X Link 2023-11-22T22:42Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Underwhelming holiday retail sales was one of the first piece of data to alert certain Fed officials of a recession back in 2007/2008the holiday seasons not over yet but so far not looking good. Mastercard forecasts 3.7% y/y for the season so far 2.5% y/y for Black Friday"
X Link 2023-11-26T03:56Z [--] followers, 133K engagements
"@jalvxv People who want to forecast gdp spending component with good degree of accuracy ahead of official print"
X Link 2023-11-26T04:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Spending between Thanksgiving and Christmas rose just [---] percent over last year the weakest performance in at least four years according to MasterCard Advisors. - (2007 nytimes). In [----] holiday sales also could be weakest in [--] yearsbut as they say just normalizing"
X Link 2023-11-26T04:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RealFidla Right. But that is only 15% of total retail sales. Back in [----] it grew 22% y/y too"
X Link 2023-11-26T04:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The borrower cohorts from [----] [----] and [----] notably sees higher delinquent rates in unsecured loans than older cohorts. that is true across credit tiers including superprime (folks with 780+ credit score) which saw yoy unsecured loans jumped 38.6% in q3"
X Link 2023-11-28T06:18Z [----] followers, 18.2K engagements
"Why I think credit score inflation plays a role. It remains to be seen what this means for credit availability in the coming months"
X Link 2023-11-28T06:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"But the borrowing binge of the superprime really jumps out in the data. Turns out they are the ones buying cars in [----] and [--]. While suprime and near prime who bought earlier in the pandemic are the ones driving up delinquencies"
X Link 2023-11-28T07:23Z [----] followers, 32.3K engagements
"Given the cohort delinquency dynamics seen in the transunion data this picture below probably has another [--] ppt to climb on track to surpass 1994"
X Link 2023-11-28T14:17Z 10K followers, 66.2K engagements
"Our [----] outlook is out In short we expect the first Fed rate cut in March [----] with a total of [---] bps cut in [----]. For complete outlook available in @TheTerminal : https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S4YIPOT0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S4YIPOT0AFB4"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:04Z 31K followers, 12K engagements
"@BobEUnlimited We also mention the scenario when [---] bps happensthat requires core inflation (6m annual rate) to falls to 2% by March and unemployment going to [---] in q1 and [--] by end year. If economy is stronger than that (which is the consensus) one shouldnt be pricing in much cuts"
X Link 2023-12-01T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A new FRBNY paper finds that FOMC tends to be more dovish in internal discussions than in public speeches during easing cycles (no such bias for tightening cycles). Tells you just how much to discount Powells performance today"
X Link 2023-12-01T22:05Z 10.1K followers, 32.1K engagements
"It was my great pleasure to talk to @sobel_mark (my esteemed former boss at Treasury and a national treasure) to dive into the aftermath of the December FOMC meeting:"
X Link 2023-12-14T18:19Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Highligh from FOMC minutes: Several participants noted the risk that if labor demand were to weaken substantially further the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions. They believe in the mechanics behind Sahm Rule"
X Link 2024-01-03T19:36Z [--] followers, 48.5K engagements
"Seasonal factors update in household survey tomorrow. A thought excercise: how robust is the current labor market narratives to SA issues Calendar days and weather matter for appropriate SA. [----] [----] will match calendar days but [----] el nino signal closer to [--]. (1/2)"
X Link 2024-01-05T03:16Z [--] followers, 12.2K engagements
"Lets adjust the unemployment rate using SA from those years then. Sahm rule would be farther away from triggering if use [----] factors but it would have triggered at 0.57ppt in Oct [----] using [----] factors. Conclusion: narrative is fragile. (2/2)"
X Link 2024-01-05T03:16Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Here is the chart of the adjusted unemployment rate using [----] [----] [----] SA factors"
X Link 2024-01-05T03:18Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The ISM employment plummet was so sharp that I emailed the ISM folks to ensure they check if there is an error. This is their reply. So this really begs the question of why nonfarm payroll increased by that much"
X Link 2024-01-05T19:53Z 12.6K followers, 158.3K engagements
"ISM employment plunge vs NFP blowout which one will the Fed believe Here is an employment intentions diffusion index we constructed from regional Fed surveys: it shows a similar steep drop as ISM"
X Link 2024-01-05T20:54Z [--] followers, 86.3K engagements
"We estimate that Decs core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1- 3- 6-month annualized measures all below 2%. Solid case for March rate cut based on inflation alone. (Wild card: cpi seasonal factors revisions in Feb)"
X Link 2024-01-12T20:23Z 12.6K followers, 52.5K engagements
"@FedGuy12 This paper adopts a euphemism for what really is credit score inflation and misses the big picture issue (which is that thse who migratedcontinued to exhibit subprime behavior and the lower financing fueled more purchases than otherwise would have without the migration)"
X Link 2024-01-13T02:02Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@SteveMiran Adding another dimension to this: most inflation indexing in the economy is to cpi not pce"
X Link 2024-01-16T04:46Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"A weak data point Fed has in their pocket: bank credit contracting for 5-consecutive weeks from early Dec through early January (last seen in [----] and before that [----] before QE3). Hence Waller's point that financial conditions not easing. If credit goes so goes economy"
X Link 2024-01-16T20:55Z 12.7K followers, 43.6K engagements
"@stevehouf @fkronawitter1 Most of the [--] month ahead indicators in regional surveys show huge optimism. It is entirely possible that there was a downturn in q4 [--] but things are recovering. Maybe end of hiking cycles make firm optimistic. Hence fed rate cuts will determine that soft landing"
X Link 2024-01-16T22:39Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Jobless claims are very low whatever seasonal factors one uses. Our latest on @theterminal assesses what the low level means. Spoiler: less unemployed people are applying for claims meaning that the low level doesn't mean it what it used to mean. (1/4)"
X Link 2024-01-23T03:38Z 12.7K followers, 173.8K engagements
"One implication of this: when UI claims do rise to a high level then it is truly painful for people -- more so than the same level of UI in past recession.because this time around UI claims can no longer pay the bills and one must have exhausted other options"
X Link 2024-01-23T03:38Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Deja vu of China ala [----] Recall at the beginning of [----] markets priced in [--] hikes. By the end only one happened. Two most common reasons for rate cuts from our study of fed minutes: credit growth concerns and global growth"
X Link 2024-01-23T04:19Z 12.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Just launched our NLP Fedspeak Index on @TheTerminal today. Our Fedspeak Index combines Bloomberg's timely Fed reporting+labels trained on my read of Fedspeak. It flagged for us Powell's Dec Dovish pivot. Right now its readings is similar to March 2019-4 months before rate cuts"
X Link 2024-01-29T23:03Z 13K followers, 39.5K engagements
"@BenMillerise We didnt interpret March as off the table. He said it is unlikely given the data so far. There are still two more jobs and inflation reports (and potentially massive revisions) plus another beige book that is tracking to be bad. Our March rate hike call hinged on weaker data"
X Link 2024-02-01T02:18Z 12.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Powell said March rate cut is unlikely based on todays data. That frames the tension between our judgemental call (March cut) vs NLP fedspeak call (May cut) well: the former hinged on our forecasts of softer inflation and jobs while the latter on rhetoric based on current data"
X Link 2024-02-01T02:25Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"For tomorrow nonfarm payroll I am looking for how close to [--] does payrolls and private payrolls get in October 2023"
X Link 2024-02-01T15:39Z 12.9K followers, 12.1K engagements
"Great thread from @Neely . We also noticed that many state UI trust funds are close to insolvency while looking into UI claims. The implication may be that states will have to seek funds from federal govt to fund rising ui benefits in a slowdown more pressure on federal deficit. "What the FUTA" A 🧵 about a tiny line item signaling significant strength in payroll taxes which might be telling us more about anemic state-level unemployment coffers and weak budgets than labor demand. "What the FUTA" A 🧵 about a tiny line item signaling significant strength in payroll taxes which might be telling"
X Link 2024-02-02T02:46Z 13.6K followers, 16.8K engagements
"We are changing our Fed call to a cut in May on the basis of this jobs report. We have doubts about the January blowout but the revisions for [--] shows a hotter labor market (though even further boosted by birth death model). [--] charts:"
X Link 2024-02-02T15:40Z 12.9K followers, 28.6K engagements
"BLS doubled down on birth death model further boosting [----] payrolls (data on true business closure and birth for Q3 will be released on late Feb so well see)"
X Link 2024-02-02T15:40Z 13.2K followers, 88.5K engagements
"Another grain of salt on January: extremely low response rate. Decembers first and second response rate are also extremely low by historical standards ( even worse than 2020-21) somethings up. This is even lower than ur household survey"
X Link 2024-02-02T15:40Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Todays payroll report shows just how hard it is to conduct policy in real time recalling how Arthur Burns had blamed the deceptive real-time data in missing on inflation. The payrolls data for [----] that will most approximate the truth will only come out in Feb [----]. (1/2)"
X Link 2024-02-02T15:52Z 13.5K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Taylor Swift just dropped a big surprise -- new album in [----] Downside risks for the economy if Powell holds rates higher-for-longer just went down by much. FOMC should thank her"
X Link 2024-02-05T04:19Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@BobEUnlimited One could also argue that the concerns with China is in some way greater. While not as much capital outflows officials also seem more hesitant to put out stimulus. Chinas resilience has always been predicated on the governments ability to step in"
X Link 2024-02-05T17:52Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"It is hard to predict revisions but were going to stick our heads out on this CPI one - with an eye on PCE implications. Two things we predict: 1) more disinflation in end-2023 in OER and 2) less disinflation in used cars. (With intrepid @ou_estelle)"
X Link 2024-02-08T02:16Z 13.6K followers, 36.4K engagements
"Am reading the CBOs the accuracy of cbos budget projections for fiscal year [----] report right now. On their $1 trillion deficit miss lower income corporate import receipts. Doesnt read like the rosy picture that GDP gives. More similar to the GDI vibes"
X Link 2024-02-08T21:11Z 13.6K followers, 14.6K engagements
"@SteveMiran Cbo has a chart that support your claim. It refers to the 9% underestimation of total outlays in [----] as the largest error in a projection of total outlays that the agency has recorded"
X Link 2024-02-08T21:50Z 13.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty stunning [----] outlook from CBO here. 10yr UST to average 4.8% in H2 [----] even with an unemployment rate that would imply a recession. If 10yr UST is still that high in a recession then it would probably make for a deep one. Unless they think R* is much higher"
X Link 2024-02-08T22:48Z 13.5K followers, 29.2K engagements
"Can the world handle real estate trembles from not just one but two largest economies at the same time"
X Link 2024-02-09T04:49Z 28K followers, 20.4K engagements
"A pervasive but misguided view is to dismiss contagion risks based on direct bank and trade exposure. As this great IMF paper shows in the case of the asia financial crisis the portfolio rebalancing channel played the key role. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04131.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04131.pdf"
X Link 2024-02-09T05:08Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"We dont think the CPI revisions are a nothingburger. Disinflation momentum stronger for core services (ie rents). Powells pce supercore and core pce will be lower in end-2023. More room for core goods disinflation. This has to give fed greater confidence"
X Link 2024-02-09T16:28Z 13.6K followers, 42.7K engagements
"Guess what this mix will do to core pce"
X Link 2024-02-09T16:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@98_tennis Because ppl think it is a nothingburger"
X Link 2024-02-09T17:10Z 13.2K followers, [---] engagements
"While tech layoffs got all the attention several state/local schools are laying off teachers and admin workers. Thats odd given how JOLTS and payrolls say education sector still short of workers. Turns out there are [--] reasons: more states are reporting budget issues and federal covid funds ($122 billion in ESSER III funds to expire in Sept 2024) declining student enrollment (relative to teachers). This may be an example of how even as nonfarm payroll shows below trend hiring you still can get layoffs in the sector. Pandemic policies continue to work through the economy in inconspicuous ways"
X Link 2024-02-13T02:34Z 13.7K followers, 78.8K engagements
"@BobEUnlimited Because the CPI revisions feed into core PCE readings in a weird way"
X Link 2024-02-13T16:31Z 13.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Hot CPI surprise: residual seasonality If that's the case Feb reading is not gonna be nice either"
X Link 2024-02-13T16:33Z 13.8K followers, 31.2K engagements
"Applying the same logic in this reflection for todays context I substitute one word: One question to ask is whether the guidance issued was too "constraining"; in other words did it allow enough flexibility for the FOMC to begin EASING (sub for raising) the policy rate when it was appropriate to do so Ihrig and Waller review the sequence of actions taken by the FOMC between late [----] and mid-2023 to remove the very accommodative stance of monetary policy in place after the COVID-19 pandemic. #FEDSNote #EconTwitter (1/2) https://t.co/y2R4Ff86Wm Ihrig and Waller review the sequence of actions"
X Link 2024-02-14T16:22Z 13.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@LHSummers say there's 15% chance that Fed's next move is a rate hike. Guess who agrees Our NLP Fedspeak model. It has probability of rate hike at 13.3%. My takeaway is that there's hope for humanity yet. Theres a meaningful chance maybe its 15% that the next move is going to be upwards in rates not downwards. The @federalreserve is going to have to be very careful. Watch my interview w @DavidWestin tonight 6pm ET @BloombergTV Wall Street Week. https://t.co/QIPp9Rc68j Theres a meaningful chance maybe its 15% that the next move is going to be upwards in rates not downwards. The @federalreserve"
X Link 2024-02-16T18:58Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements
"What FOMC omits in the minutes says a ton. The [--] things that were absent but which you know they discussed: 1) cuts will happen before 12m change in pce inflation hits 2% (Powell Daly Goolsbee all mentioned this) 2) neutral rate may be higher (5 FOMC officials used almost verbatim language in speeches since the meeting so you know this was discussed) 3) minutes underplay officials existing confidence in disinflation but highlight upside inflation risks. Thats in contrast to Powells characterization at the news conference of officials as already confident but simply wanting more confirmation"
X Link 2024-02-22T03:22Z 13.9K followers, 48.2K engagements
"Our take on commercial real estate in comparison to the [----] bank failures - in [--] chart. Need a 40% drop in cre valuations to equate to same amount of total bank asset affected as in [----]. But cre is more spread out risk in time and across banks though smaller banks"
X Link 2024-02-25T23:14Z 14K followers, 28.6K engagements
"Noooooooo Flaco the escaped central park zoo great horned owl has passed. I dont live in NYC I havent even seen you before but my heart goes to this adventurous bird that enlivened my X feed. A lovely tribute from NYtimes: But Flaco never looked back after his escape from the zoo. Though the animal literature is peppered with stories of animals usually pets who suffer hardships and return home Flaco never retreated to the zoo. Perhaps freedom itself was the home hed discovered. And though we feared for him his new life thrilled us. How many of us our circumstances familiar and safe are too"
X Link 2024-02-27T04:21Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@TheStalwart Short australian dollar relative to usd (proxy china trade)"
X Link 2024-03-01T23:24Z 14.8K followers, 14.9K engagements
"X's GROK does a decent job explaining to me what the BLS's birth-death model is. But my favorite part of the answer is when he/she addresses me as "my dear human" and once he/she starts getting into dragons and wizards: GROK: "The CES survey is like a big friendly dragon that collects information from a sample of about [------] businesses and government agencies representing approximately [------] individual worksites. Now you may be wondering "Why do we need a model to estimate the impact of business births and deaths" Well my dear human the CES sample is large but it's not large enough to"
X Link 2024-03-05T04:12Z 14K followers, [----] engagements
"Turns out that [--] quarters of lags in nominal wage growth historically can predict the directional change of unemployment quite well. Based on that unemployment rate should be rising much more rapidly according to this simple model. Is job openings doing all the work Can the u rate continue to go sideways"
X Link 2024-03-06T03:11Z 14.7K followers, 38.1K engagements
"@EconBerger Hence why I am surprised at this result"
X Link 2024-03-06T03:30Z 14K followers, [----] engagements
"If you believe that AI will ultimately increase economic inequality then that channel by itself will reduce r*. (Not saying though this is the net effect. But all Ive seen so far is rather one sided discussion of the impact towards higher r*)"
X Link 2024-03-12T02:16Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Hot core CPI stole the thunder but the real signal is with NFIB today"
X Link 2024-03-12T13:55Z 18.7K followers, 76.5K engagements
"Based on CPI and PPI we are at 0.42% for headline PCE and 0.34% for core PCE inflation in Feb. Still we see 12-month change in core touching 2.5% before June"
X Link 2024-03-14T16:56Z 14.9K followers, 17.5K engagements
"Why I think dot plot next week will still show [--] (not 50) bps cuts for 2024: I dont think any of the [--] dots that saw 75bp cut will defect. My guesses of those [--] dots are: Goolsbee Cook Harker Jefferson Collins Williams Barr Kugler Daly Powell"
X Link 2024-03-16T05:46Z 14.9K followers, 48.5K engagements
"Another reason why it just isnt clear the median would shift to [--] bp cuts for 24: growth surprised on downside (based on [--] indicators) even as inflation surprised up"
X Link 2024-03-19T00:08Z 15.7K followers, 57.5K engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA I am poor at detecting sarcasm but for the [----] there is a clear causal relationship as the unraveling of the yen carry trade tightened global financial conditions"
X Link 2024-03-20T03:09Z 22.6K followers, 40.6K engagements
"Strangely Powell mentioned several times unexpected intermeeting events or deterioration in labor market that could prompt earlier rate cuts. But given the low baseline for unemployment this year (4.0%) it is quite easily for it to meet that unexpected condition"
X Link 2024-03-20T20:37Z 15K followers, 112K engagements
"Another potential unexpected"
X Link 2024-03-21T03:01Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Takeaway from Baltimore bridge collapse- one way that Port of Baltimore is small but important is its relative closeness to the Midwest directly linked through rail. Which is why autos and farm equipment disproportionately goes through that port"
X Link 2024-03-26T21:42Z 15.1K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Why the unemployment rate can go up even if jobless claims remain low in BLS own words: The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits. If you also believe that immigration drive hiring the last two years then you should also believe that those wont have long enough work history to be eligible for unemployment benefits were they be laid off"
X Link 2024-04-03T02:21Z 18.7K followers, 35.2K engagements
"Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working its way to other auto-related services categories. Looks like the order of spillovers go like this: car prices - car parts -car repair -car insurance. At 20% y/y increase car insurance alone add 0.6ppt to CPI"
X Link 2024-04-09T21:37Z 15.7K followers, 43.8K engagements
"Car insurance cpi jumped 2.6% in March. The problem with this kind of services inflation is that it will still keep on going in a recession. Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working its way to other auto-related services categories. Looks like the order of spillovers go like this: car prices - car parts https://t.co/NnuZZjqK5U Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working"
X Link 2024-04-10T15:18Z 15.7K followers, 23K engagements
"How would the Fed view todays CPI surprise First consider how they view the Jan and Feb surprise: According to FOMC minutes Some participants didnt discount the strong inflation readings in January and February though a few said residual seasonality contributed to those hot readings. (1/3)"
X Link 2024-04-11T01:32Z 31K followers, 26K engagements
"There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust Fed pivot just when that happens just when a second oil shock may strike officials possibly overestimating productivity Fed keen on achieving a soft landing"
X Link 2024-04-12T16:22Z 15.9K followers, 37.8K engagements
"So close yet so far. @AnnaEconomist Yes Anna here we go: boom https://t.co/BqXldX51yN @AnnaEconomist Yes Anna here we go: boom https://t.co/BqXldX51yN"
X Link 2024-04-12T18:08Z 15.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@DiMartinoBooth @BLS_gov This is for those of us who has been skewered for calling for a recession start last October. Cheers"
X Link 2024-04-24T19:46Z 15.9K followers, 31.2K engagements
"A weedy potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter So the PCE inflation uses moving weights so if the past couple months we see the expenditure pattern shifting toward services from goods particularly upweighting financials then you could more weight on the group that sees higher inflation and less weight on stuff such as cars which sees more disinflation"
X Link 2024-04-25T16:32Z 16.2K followers, 39K engagements
"@justfactsnotbs Not discrediting anything. Just explaining a puzzle"
X Link 2024-04-25T16:42Z 15.9K followers, [---] engagements
"My view on what Fed probably will do (but definitely needs to do) now on Bloomberg website. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-28/will-the-fed-cut-rates-what-60-000-headlines-say-about-its-next-move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-28/will-the-fed-cut-rates-what-60-000-headlines-say-about-its-next-move"
X Link 2024-04-29T12:49Z 16.1K followers, 13.5K engagements
"@SteveMiran The only thing to square this and i think this is what he really means is that he is putting all his chips in betting that favorable supply shocks and rents will finish the job painlessly. There is some major group think over there"
X Link 2024-05-02T03:18Z 16.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I admire the ernestness of Powells answer at the presser on how the Fed wont be swayed by politics in its decisions. But lets face it there is no such thing as pure data dependency as so much of policymaking requires a normative view of the economy which in term is often influenced by ones political affiliation. Peppered in the forecasts are judgements. Some example of such questions are: - how fiscal policy affect supply vs demand (ie ira child tax credit tcja) -whether immigration net positive demand or supply shock -how much had remote schooling affected human capital (and therefore"
X Link 2024-05-03T05:31Z 16.3K followers, 35.5K engagements
"Since mid-1970s all national recessions involve California. Or put it another way the conditional probability of the national unemployment rate spiking given what California looks like right now is quite high"
X Link 2024-05-13T21:51Z 16.8K followers, 157.3K engagements
"The thing I am most eager to see in CPI: food away from home in limited meal service"
X Link 2024-05-14T22:07Z 16.8K followers, 16K engagements
"Our own growth surprises index (which uses [--] indicators) and inflation surprises index (33 indicators) are trying to tell us something. Typically they move in synch but so far this year they have moved in opposite directions. Inflation surprises also saw a U-turn in early [--] before resuming downward trend after March but the upward surprise U-turn in early [--] had persisted beyond March. Will see whether it goes back down like last year. The growth surprise index currently has the lowest reading in this Fed tightening cycle. Enough said. H/t @AnaGalvao24816 Tickers @TheTerminal are BCMPUSGR"
X Link 2024-05-16T21:14Z 16.8K followers, 61.7K engagements
"@VARshad_ @Brad_Setser @Barchart @dismaleconomist @EtraAlex @stevehouf We didnt produce this chart. But @ou_estelle from my team used to work on TIC data at the Fed probably may know"
X Link 2024-05-17T13:14Z 16.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@fcastofthemonth We are at [-----] for core pce deflator for April"
X Link 2024-05-21T20:33Z 16.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Those who said that the tight labor didnt add to inflation the past few years would be inconsistent to their own views if they now say that the incease in immigration has been disinflationary"
X Link 2024-05-23T16:55Z 16.8K followers, 11.5K engagements
"I dont think it is my illusion that business establishments have been closing left and right faster late last year"
X Link 2024-06-03T22:46Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Another thread on nonfarm payrolls revisions -- An alternative jobs indicator says that the underlying pace of job growth is most likely 100k currently. @TheTerminal During the pandemic both the Fed and the CEA relied on high-frequency alternative indicators to track real-time developments in the labor market. One of those indicators is Homebase a software company that help businesses and employees track payrolls and work hours. It currently covers [------] businesses and around [--] million hourly employees in the US." Homebase can predict nonfarm payrolls well in the past but curiously the"
X Link 2024-06-05T13:42Z 18.4K followers, 49.3K engagements
"Regarding the QCEW implied large downward revisions to CES establishment payrolls one argument Ive heard these few days goes something like this: The revised payrolls next year will be wrong because the CES is capturing undocumented workers while the UI- universe which the QCEW draws from doesnt. So the CES payrolls will be benchmarked to something that is wrong. Establishment survey estimates is more accurate. I see several problems with this argument. But the first one simply is this: the QCEW serves as a sampling frame for CES and is the basis of the CES universe. The idea that"
X Link 2024-06-06T03:09Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Here continues some evidence that push-back on the idea that the establishment survey is any more superior than QCEW or Household survey in measuring undocumented workers. From April's Beige book the mentions of immigrants in Kansas and SF districts. Here's Kansas: "The number of foreign-born workers available for hire rose in the District. However few contacts indicated that immigrant workers were a notable source of new labor supply as barriers to hiring were difficult to overcome. Non-wage benefit costs grew at a modest pace. Most employers indicated increases in healthcare benefit costs"
X Link 2024-06-06T16:35Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@DiMartinoBooth Sad"
X Link 2024-06-06T21:15Z 18K followers, [---] engagements
"Measurement issues of nonfarm payroll should rise onto the top of Fed's policy work agenda. For this May's nonfarm we took a different approach to forecasting nonfarm payrolls by forecasting both the "false" number and the "true number" (the latter guided our unemployment rate). And it worked out well -- we're the only shop that forecasted this dueling narrative of rising unemployment rate and robust nonfarm payrolls.and yes that's after hard lessons from last year"
X Link 2024-06-07T13:26Z 18.6K followers, 95.6K engagements
"Among many things that can be bad this is particularly bad. Rural America will increasingly become invisible. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reducing the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints. https://t.co/llQMwmzCvh via @economics The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reducing the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints. https://t.co/llQMwmzCvh via @economics"
X Link 2024-06-07T19:46Z 18.4K followers, 24K engagements
"This years Jackson Hole topic is reassesssing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Powells speech will come [--] days before the news release version of QCEW 2024q1. Papers on the conference are in full swing and likely completed. But how many of them will conclude that monetary policy has not been powerful this cycle on the basis of using the unrevised nonfarm payroll data In my view this conference probably comes [--] years too early (should do it in [----] when they have the revised data). And if past lags of rate hikes on unemployment is true (18-24 months) this reassessment is also touching on"
X Link 2024-06-09T14:05Z 18.6K followers, 61.4K engagements
"Powell wouldnt single out housing price inflation as trigger to cut. How about mens underwear prices and sales (as Greenspan would)"
X Link 2024-06-12T19:32Z 18.7K followers, [----] engagements
"And I will probably have these [--] things the next three weeks on my vacation to see family. Until the next payrolls (That is unless nexts retail sales show mens underwear sales plummeting) nailed it. @FerroTV nailed it. @FerroTV"
X Link 2024-06-13T01:52Z 18.7K followers, [----] engagements
"AndIm back. Seriously this is the last of mens underwear today. Here is Alan Greenspan on how mens underpants are a prescient economic indicator of trouble (in all senses). Note the timing. https://www.npr.org/2008/01/01/17759341/alan-greenspans-underwear-drawer https://www.npr.org/2008/01/01/17759341/alan-greenspans-underwear-drawer"
X Link 2024-06-13T02:03Z 18.7K followers, 14.8K engagements
"Great that Powell acknowledged payrolls are overstated yesterday now staff can scrutinize the issue. Philly Fed just released the q4 [--] early benchmark estimates - once again foreshadowing big revisions down. CES says payrolls grew 1.6% in q4 Philly Fed early benchmark says 0.3%. One can say that if you use wedge method on average monthly payrolls would only be revised down 60k nothing alarming. But labor market dynamics is governed by nonlinearities. Momentum matters. And here the Philly Fed data shows clearly how fast things were cooling throughout [----]. Early in the year most states had"
X Link 2024-06-13T18:02Z 18.7K followers, 73K engagements
"Was at NABE conference to listen to Kuglers speech (good one shows sensitivity to data nuances). Key take away: she said she would support earlier cuts only if unemployment rate increase is driven by layoffs. So sounds like the Fed is not feeling urgency because of the belief that unemployment increase due to labor force expansion is nothing to worry about. Problem with that is that past recessions all start with labor force expansion and usually only about two quarters into recessions do layoffs rise sharply. Below chart shows the decomposition of unemployment in past recessions. Also note"
X Link 2024-07-16T21:18Z 19.9K followers, 70.7K engagements
"Waller is so confident about soft landing that none of his three scenarios in his speech today involve ever climbing unemployment rates"
X Link 2024-07-17T22:36Z 19.7K followers, 10.9K engagements
"This chart is pretty striking. Shows the share of new [--] day delinquencies citing unemployment for reason of delinquency of FHA single family loan. H/t gopal sharath Source: http://hud.gov http://hud.gov"
X Link 2024-07-19T19:33Z 20K followers, 199.6K engagements
"Now that Sahm Rule is triggered what happens next Would unemployment rate continuously rise by another 1.9-2.0ppt as it always had @chrisgcollins1 and I wrote about this ahead of the July report here: Using CPS micro data we found that unemployment of the immigrant cohort from 2022-2024 has been rising swiftly from the past six months. As for June their unemployment rate was over 11%. The July report shows that the foreign-born (which does not differentiate between new arrivals vs earlier) unemployment rate had increased faster than the native-born rate on NSA basis from 4.2% in June to 4.7%"
X Link 2024-08-02T14:09Z 22.5K followers, 117.8K engagements
"Next narrative in markets I think is not whether Fed is doing [--] bps cut in Sept but could.an intermeeting cut. Not that I think will happen. But market narratives matter"
X Link 2024-08-02T14:22Z 36.3K followers, 19.1K engagements
"@macrodelics Maybe a stock market crash Market narratives matter"
X Link 2024-08-02T14:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"If the Fed has a singular inflation target mandate maybe it should not cut. But if the Fed has dual mandate it should cut"
X Link 2024-08-02T16:53Z 22.2K followers, 10.3K engagements
"There is a lot of chatters about whether last Fridays weak payrolls was because of Hurricane Beryl: my answerno. The sectors that led the declines (white collor jobs) arent the ones that typically drove declines in hurricanes affected payrolls. Food services and constructionwhere the hurricane effect should show updidnt seem affected. But we also already know from jobless claims that around 20k in Texas was indeed affected by storm and probably not paid. To square the circle one explanation (our preferred one) was that the storm affected area had lower relative response rate to the ces survey"
X Link 2024-08-05T02:59Z 22.7K followers, 27.1K engagements
"Its been tough being a bear but we have forecasted unemployment to rise to 4.3% in Q3 and 4.5% by end-2024 since early this year. But even I am surprised by how quickly everyone is abandoning the previous narrative. Our midyear note here. https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SFMU9TDWX2PS https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SFMU9TDWX2PS"
X Link 2024-08-05T03:12Z 22.5K followers, 35.1K engagements
"What would deal market a further blow is if a very active hurricane season this fall deal some more supply shocks to inflation so inflation data wont cooperate with Fed rate cuts. Think this is the last thing on peoples mind tho. Per @NWSNHC on Hurricane #Debby: "the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina with an increasing likelihood of catastrophic flooding." https://t.co/uzLPQkmcb0 Per @NWSNHC on Hurricane #Debby: "the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and"
X Link 2024-08-05T04:09Z 22.5K followers, 16K engagements
"This is what happened to GDP q1 [----] print from first print to now. The recession began March [----]. If the point is to get at the ground truth I would downweigh things that get revised so drastically"
X Link 2024-08-06T18:48Z 23K followers, 217.5K engagements
"The reason why policymakers need to seriously consider the possibility that the economy is slowing much more than data appear is that by doing so they could increase the chance of soft landing. Complete denial or downplaying that will just do the opposite. Consider this conversation between Greenspan and other fomc member on 1/3/2001 in the unscheduled meeting where Greenspan pushed for 50-bps emergency cuts post dotcom bubble bust. (Following is a much seriously simplified paraphrase by me): Other fomc participants: Chairman greenspan We are wary of projecting too much that we made a policy"
X Link 2024-08-06T20:37Z 22.9K followers, 58.5K engagements
"Just out today June consumer credit. Here is how revolving look. Does it look like it is normalizing"
X Link 2024-08-07T21:37Z 26.8K followers, 116.3K engagements
"Only 25% of the unemployed is filing for unemployment benefits in July. That has further dropped from 31% in the beginning of the year and this is while unemployment rate is rising. In comparison the recipient rate was 40% pre-1990 and [----] recessions. In this aspect this time indeed is different (maybe claims only as useful as in [----] as leading indicator)"
X Link 2024-08-08T23:10Z 32K followers, 137.9K engagements
"So markets just had the best day since Nov [----] and then a bunch of FOMC officials come out and say theres no urgency to cut rates. Do you think that will actually further spook markets or unreverse the unwinding of yen carry trade"
X Link 2024-08-08T23:18Z 32K followers, 13.9K engagements
"@EconBerger Chat gpt just told me that even temporarily laid off workers are eligible to apply for UI. Am i missing your point"
X Link 2024-08-08T23:24Z 32.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@DanielBZhao @EconBerger Good find In our deep dive piece we identified eligibility issue as the key. This thing corroborates that"
X Link 2024-08-09T00:58Z 32.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Heres another forward looking thing to think about: so the CPI and PPI next week while likely to be soft also likely suggest that core PCE inflation will drift back up to 2.7-2.8% (from 2.6%). You think markets gonna like that (Genuine question)"
X Link 2024-08-09T01:11Z 32.1K followers, 38.4K engagements
"@MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision This is bad"
X Link 2024-08-09T19:48Z 32.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Revisiting this post from last fall on the statistical nature of the unemployment rate. The consensus peak forecast for it and the Fomcs hovers at 4.0% for most of this year. That likely reflects the mean conditional forecast that assumes linearity. I sure hope the FOMC is looking at the fan chart/quantile regressions forecasts rather than that mean forecast right now. Our explanation for why soft landing confidence is misplaced: 1) the process governing unemployment (u) is nonlinear its distribution is multimodal with long right tail. Linear forecasting models on past labor values would tend"
X Link 2024-08-10T03:22Z 32K followers, 46.5K engagements
"@NeelyTamminga Thanks This is compared to the consensus earlier in the year"
X Link 2024-08-13T22:35Z 32.1K followers, 13K engagements
"The seasonally adjusted cpi primary rents in LA does look a bit unusually high. H/t @JonathanJLevin"
X Link 2024-08-14T21:43Z 32.1K followers, 22.1K engagements
"One quirk about core PCE inflation is that it uses ppi measure for car insurance. We learned that cpi car insurance jumped in July after a string of strong readings in the past couple years. But not ppi. But do you know the cumulative auto insurance inflation in CPI is more than 2x the PCE (50% vs 22% since dec 2021)"
X Link 2024-08-14T22:59Z 32.1K followers, 15.6K engagements
"@Mkt_Troglodyte @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision NSN SEJYDTDWLU68GO US INSIGHT: Unexpected Spark for Fed Cuts Hidden in Plain View"
X Link 2024-08-17T16:46Z 32.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@leadlagreport @DiMartinoBooth Would this summer camp pull forward the liquidity event you predict to August Given that all these money managers are in holed up in a Maine lake rather then providing liquidity"
X Link 2024-08-17T19:20Z 32K followers, 11.8K engagements
"@BobEUnlimited This kind of discrepancy offers a great investment opportunity and huge incentive to have the correct read of the macro situation"
X Link 2024-08-18T20:07Z 32K followers, [----] engagements
"@tomkeene @grok This is actuallyreally accurate"
X Link 2024-08-19T15:42Z 32K followers, [----] engagements
"So the BLS prelim benchmark revision is -818k (in line with our 800k forecast). But the 1Q QCEW county data implies a bigger revision of -958k. To put this in context the typical revision is 0.1% of payrollsthe past year was 0.5% 5x as large"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:03Z 31.5K followers, 129.5K engagements
"Another key quote from fomc minutes the key here is that many is actually two notches higher than severalso very low bar for [--] bps cuts: Many participants noted that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity or employment. A couple participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way. Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a resurgence in aggregate demand and a reversal of the progress on inflation. These participants"
X Link 2024-08-21T18:57Z 32K followers, 21.6K engagements
"Former BLS commissioner has spoken. The big downward preliminary revisions to non-farm employment (-818000) announced this morning by BLS probably stem from overestimating the number of firms in the economy. Slowing as well as recovering economies often post challenges for BLS's "birth/death" model which BLS The big downward preliminary revisions to non-farm employment (-818000) announced this morning by BLS probably stem from overestimating the number of firms in the economy. Slowing as well as recovering economies often post challenges for BLS's "birth/death" model which BLS"
X Link 2024-08-21T19:50Z 31.4K followers, 118.8K engagements
"To elaborate on former BLS Commissioner Beachs explanation here is what he meant in picture: Net establishment counts changes is 51% lower compared to a year ago. And yet the monthly nonfarm payrolls are using very very similar birth and death jobs forecasts as in [----] so far every month in [----]. That is why the April and July [----] payroll when all revisions are done by [----] has a very good chance of being near zero or negative"
X Link 2024-08-22T03:18Z 31.5K followers, 83.3K engagements
"To elaborate on why this is my takeaway: he didnt say anything about the need to be gradual or methodical. He didnt characterize the risks as even but rather it simply changed. Language used to describe labor market is assured ie cooling is unmistakable and cooler than in [----]. There is a notch more urgency in this framing than his July appearance"
X Link 2024-08-23T16:02Z 32.1K followers, 16.3K engagements
"@stevehouf Actually the low interest rate was one of the [--] original mandate of the Fed"
X Link 2024-08-26T21:25Z 32K followers, [----] engagements
"For gloom and doom commentary look no further than the comments section of the Dallas Fed Services Activity: "As a search and staffing firm in the business of hiring not only in North Texas but across Texas and the U.S. we have felt like we are in a recession now for months. Senior vice presidents of talent acquisition at [-----] employee businesses have told us confidentially they are not backfilling roles when existing employees leave the company. Fortune [---] clients have put hiring freezes in place. Mid-market companies are posting fake jobs to pipeline candidates for when they can hire"
X Link 2024-08-27T15:29Z 61.4K followers, 148.8K engagements
"So John Williams and Goolsbee were already pushing for a rate cut in July"
X Link 2024-08-27T21:26Z 31.6K followers, 30.4K engagements
"Yes. Not to mention that demographic group of interest te this issue is not in professional and business services. There is no actual evidence that there are half a million people that make it into payroll statistics but not the UI systempure speculation from GS 🙄 There is no actual evidence that there are half a million people that make it into payroll statistics but not the UI systempure speculation from GS 🙄"
X Link 2024-08-28T13:53Z 31.5K followers, 30.1K engagements
"We found a similar conclusion. Of the [--] bps increase in unemployment rate in July we could attribute [--] bps at most to Hurricane. That would mean Julys unemployment rate would have been 4.22%- rounded to 4.2%- in the absence of the hurricane. The rest a lot due to higher than normal temp layoffs in education (related to expiration of pandemic federal aid) manufacturing (hint on weak ISM manufacturing next Tuesday) and construction (housing sector slowing). Finally we find temp layoffs lead non temporary layoffs by [--] months in the past. I thought we settled this a while ago but I keep seeing"
X Link 2024-08-30T01:00Z 31.5K followers, 84.2K engagements
"In fact the recession from 1974-75 the worst one at the time post WWII and the one that sealed Arthur Burns notoriety can dispel the notion that an unemployment driven by labor force expansion and temp layoffs can be dismissed as benign. Even though there are obvious differences with todays context it suggests these two factors are not exceptional. Payrolls didnt turn negative until 11th month in that recession. (Because economy had significant labor shortage in the lead up) March [----] marked the beginning of the continuous rise in unemployment. At that month only 49% of unemployment are job"
X Link 2024-08-30T02:20Z 31.5K followers, 59.1K engagements
"Could it be that net foreign savings measurement issue plays athe key role in the GDP and GDI discrepancy In the 4q up to [----] q1 the international BOP discrepancy is 0.7% of GDP. This chart seems to suggest they do kind of comove. Statistical discrepancies in the US balance of payment tend to be large in times of global financial turmoil. It is somehow quite sizable in the past [--] quarters. More possible conjectures: could the international discrepancy be coming from the current account side particularly the US-China goods side as @Brad_Setser has lately written a lot of current account"
X Link 2024-08-30T21:28Z 31.5K followers, 24.9K engagements
"Lacy Hunt mentioned the long tentacles of payrolls revisions on other upstream economic indicators. Some of them I identified are: personal income (lower) which also means saving rate (lower) GDI (lower). Ultimately GDP (lower). There is this myth that GDI always get revised toward GDP. It is a myth because turns out that GDI leads GDP in turning points of the economy (per BEA and Fed research). And GDP tends to get revised toward GDI in lead up to and during recessionsthough obvious only several years later. The discrepancy is GDP and GDI also turns out to be predictive of unemployment rate"
X Link 2024-08-31T04:27Z 32.1K followers, 229.7K engagements
"How the GDI and GDP gap has predictive properties on unemployment"
X Link 2024-08-31T04:36Z 31.6K followers, 16.3K engagements
"Construction payrolls should cool possibly sharply aboutimminently. Our leading indicator leads by [--] months. It is about that time. @TheTerminal Our latest: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SJ9CI7T1UM0W https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SJ9CI7T1UM0W"
X Link 2024-09-04T04:00Z 40.7K followers, 108.2K engagements
"@DonMiami3 @TheTerminal The fall in the Amber line really accelerated in April which means November should show up in payrolls clearly if we go by [--] month lags. But the amber line started to fall in September [----] so the payrolls fall could be earlier"
X Link 2024-09-04T04:36Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Recall the October beige book is what did it for Powell for him to pivot last December. This beige book is even worse than that one. I think Powell is going to strongly push for a [--] bps now"
X Link 2024-09-04T18:57Z 31.5K followers, 176.2K engagements
"Mentions of the word decline spiked in beige book. [--] out of [--] districts reporting declining or flat activity and the other [--] just grew slightly is not consistent with a GDP growth of 2%"
X Link 2024-09-04T20:21Z 31.5K followers, 43.3K engagements
"I thought markets overreacted to JOLTS today but underreacted to Beige book. In Powells words what he thinks of Beige book (and also GDP): I spent most of my life in the private sector looking at companies-individual companies individual management teams and then building out from that. And so starting with GDP data is and working into what's actually affecting people's lives is is challenging. It's very hard. So I I really like anecdotal data. In addition as you know the [--] Reserve Banks have really the best network of anyone. In all their Districts they're talking to you know not just the"
X Link 2024-09-05T01:55Z 31.4K followers, 95.9K engagements
"@bryancrav Very interesting. Can you also run it through this July [----] beige book https://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080723/default.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080723/default.htm"
X Link 2024-09-05T03:20Z 31.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I agree with Julia that this Beige book is the most downbeat one in ages. For example it reads even worse than July 2008s. From July 2008: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that the pace of economic activity slowed somewhat since the last report. Five eastern Districts noted a weakening or softening in their overall economies while Chicago characterized its economy as sluggish and Kansas City noted a moderation in growth. St. Louis said activity was stable and San Francisco reported little or no growth. Cleveland and Minneapolis reported slight increases in economic"
X Link 2024-09-05T03:22Z 31.6K followers, 74.3K engagements
"A short thread about a curious observation from unemployment forecasts ahead of tomorrows make or break jobs report. Of the [--] submissions to Bloomberg survey for Augusts unemployment forecast the overwhelming majority (72%) expect it to fall from Julys 4.3%. The realized unemployment values for each monthly payroll report from April-July [----] have come in above the mean Bloomberg forecasters expectation by [---] [----] [---] and [--] standard deviations in April May June and July respectively. On average and under a bell curve that is above 94% of forecasters. If you take the mean deviations in the"
X Link 2024-09-05T21:47Z 31.6K followers, 88K engagements
"@3birdsinthehand No. But some interesting AI folks on twitter were using Claude to process beige book yesterday"
X Link 2024-09-06T03:34Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Fastest way to stimulate the economy: have Taylor Swift add to her [--] Eras concerts in Q4. But that would probably push personal saving rate to 2%"
X Link 2024-09-12T02:35Z 31.6K followers, 18.3K engagements
"Frontloading over. Biggest ever one-week drop in cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to New York. Since hitting a July peak below $6000 pr 40ft box the Drewy global #container #shipping index has seen a sharp reversal slumping 13% this past week alone to $4168 slowing the YTD advance to https://t.co/DB0IhyOvbx Biggest ever one-week drop in cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to New York. Since hitting a July peak below $6000 pr 40ft box the Drewy global #container #shipping index has seen a sharp reversal slumping 13% this past week alone to $4168 slowing the YTD advance to"
X Link 2024-09-12T13:53Z 31.5K followers, 37.5K engagements
"Next stage after frontloading: cannabalizing. After that: offloading"
X Link 2024-09-12T22:21Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Rare to go into a FOMC meeting with this split odds. If it remains this split tomorrow chances are Fed needs to signal one way or another before the meeting probably Monday"
X Link 2024-09-13T02:15Z 31.5K followers, 56.7K engagements
"@Brad_Setser I will also argue that the US current account deficit is understatedwhich would be more consistent with the direction of us private savings and public savings are traveling"
X Link 2024-09-13T03:54Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"You know we are in this predicament right now (close to even odds on [--] vs [--] bps next week) because Powell is pushing behind the scene. The Beige book strikes again"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:18Z 31.5K followers, 48.3K engagements
"If these odds continue to swing in favor of [--] on Monday and the gap opens up even if there is no additional Fed signal I think we have an answer"
X Link 2024-09-16T03:05Z 31.6K followers, 67.8K engagements
"Key is where are the gross capital flows heading to Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23 for only the third time since [----]. The other two times were 2008-11 and [----]. https://t.co/p6lSB6juZh Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23 for only the third time since [----]. The other two times were 2008-11 and [----]. https://t.co/p6lSB6juZh"
X Link 2024-09-17T19:29Z 31.5K followers, 25.7K engagements
"Beige book strikes again. I don't follow the Fed. But I do sit near @AnnaEconomist. And earlier this week she told me the Fed would probably go with [--] bps. Anna was right. Slightly less than half of you were wrong. https://t.co/1syNC4idXX I don't follow the Fed. But I do sit near @AnnaEconomist. And earlier this week she told me the Fed would probably go with [--] bps. Anna was right. Slightly less than half of you were wrong. https://t.co/1syNC4idXX"
X Link 2024-09-18T18:28Z 31.6K followers, 39.9K engagements
"Powell mentioned he will be mentally adjusting down the payrolls number because of revisions. That adjustment should be about 91k per month we estimate"
X Link 2024-09-18T19:14Z 31.5K followers, 72.2K engagements
"The [--] stressful Ds of life: Debt Deaths Divorce Dismissals Disasters = Delinquency The last D for those delinquent on FHA loans is: Disappearance (aka no contact) H/T: @atanzi"
X Link 2024-09-23T21:39Z 31.6K followers, 71.6K engagements
"Here is one chart that shows why this port strike though massive in scale wont be a repeat of pandemic style inflation: Inventories are elevated relative to sales (in fact the highest since [----] and 2020) for the most affected imports categories. Strong demand is a prerequisite to turning adverse supply shocks into a major inflation episode. That is not there in the large affected imports categories. (Though your coffee cheese bananas will probably be more costly) Our piece today on impact of the strike: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SKOU5TT0G1KW"
X Link 2024-10-02T02:57Z 32.1K followers, 77K engagements
"Another way to reason that the supply shocks arent translating to inflation: so far businesses havent done so even though freight rate had risen to pandemic high in the past year. Firms margin are absorbing the shock. The same reasoning would apply for tariffs"
X Link 2024-10-02T03:17Z 32.1K followers, 10.3K engagements
"This is a bit scary. And hitting the October payroll weeks"
X Link 2024-10-08T00:13Z 30.9K followers, 59.1K engagements
"FOMC minutes basically showed the Powell basically pushed the committee to do [--] bps in September. Key passage is this (with quantity words highlighted): "Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way. Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a stalling or a reversal of the progress on inflation. Some participants"
X Link 2024-10-09T19:22Z 40.5K followers, 212K engagements
"So there is a fertilizer company in Tampa whose facilities is half of US production capacity and 12% of global supply. They are in the path of Milton"
X Link 2024-10-09T21:01Z 38.3K followers, 285.7K engagements
"Thought these charts from NY Fed's survey of consumer expectations are striking: Respondents of high numeracy (positively correlated to income and education) has a dimmer unemployment outlook than those with lower numeracy. And the divergence between the two is the biggest in the history of the series. That may reflect the fact that most layoffs in the past couple years had been concentrated in white collar jobs. But even so job security of low income has also been rising"
X Link 2024-10-15T15:51Z 31K followers, 12.2K engagements
"On brighter news the NY Fed prob of losing job minus finding one has improved since April"
X Link 2024-10-15T16:15Z 31K followers, [----] engagements
"On delinquency expectations in the next [--] months the sharp increase is coming from the Sandwich generation. Inflation has come down but in macro models inflationary periods distort price levels and those relative changes are still working through the economy (and less understood)"
X Link 2024-10-15T17:00Z 31.4K followers, 12.2K engagements
"In the Fed's upcoming policy review I would like to see them clarify/address whether the FAIT is or can turn symmetric. Being late to raising rates had led to more elevated price level than otherwise esp if FAIT is going to be asymmetric"
X Link 2024-10-15T17:05Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Is the drop in unemployment rate in September signaling that the worst is over for the labor market @chrisgcollins1 and I looked into it. So the 430k increase in employment in CPS survey is driven by the 785k in government jobs. CPS is volatile but this is a [---] sd move way more volatile than usual (0.1% in historical distribution). We see three potential explanations as most plausible: [--]. Election. Record donations and spending is showing up as hiring in swing states and increase in protective services jobs"
X Link 2024-10-21T22:09Z 36.5K followers, 183.8K engagements
"How may the Fed respond to tariffs In the tealbook in September [----] staff did a alt sim on what happens with a [--] ppt increase on tariff. Some points: [--]. Model found the inflation is transitory roughly [--] ppt higher. [--]. If the Fed raise rates in response recession will ensue. [--]. If the Fed look through the tariffs model found the inflation outcome is little changed from raising rates. But recession avoided. Conclusion from the exercise: The see through policy would seem an appropriate response to a tariff hike. This is straight from Fed staff simulations. The assumption for this outcome is"
X Link 2024-10-29T20:04Z 67.1K followers, 104.9K engagements
"This Fridays payroll is a tough one to forecast as so much of it depends on the hurricanes. We penciled in a hit of 150kbut it could by smaller or larger. Full piece here: One way we arrived at this is that @chrisgcollins1 from my team mapped the affected counties to the QCEW and we observed similarities to Irma from [----] to which we benchmarked. https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4 https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM60MST0AFB4"
X Link 2024-10-30T22:33Z 67.1K followers, 77.3K engagements
"The key difference is the timing of Milton in the reference period. That could make the hurricane Milton hit smaller"
X Link 2024-10-30T22:33Z 67.1K followers, 25.5K engagements
":) BTW. There's one shop that basically nailed today's jobs report https://t.co/LES44YiCix BTW. There's one shop that basically nailed today's jobs report https://t.co/LES44YiCix"
X Link 2024-11-01T14:35Z 36.4K followers, 485.9K engagements
"This is such amazing news A big win for the Bureau and for the Current Population Survey. Thanks for your invaluable help Sara. A big win for the Bureau and for the Current Population Survey. Thanks for your invaluable help Sara"
X Link 2024-11-01T18:32Z 36.4K followers, 35.1K engagements
"Trump trade surging at this time"
X Link 2024-11-06T03:06Z 36.4K followers, 25.8K engagements
"A recent natural experiment that inform on liklihood that firms may pass through potential tariffs to CPI: container rates from Asia increased about 100% in the past year. That is roughly about doubling the tariffs to China. And yet the goods more exposed to those cost shocks appeared to be more deflationary than others less exposed. Possible explanation: Chinas deflationary pressure dollar appreciation are playing stronger role that those cost shocks or firms are just taking the margin hit. Another piece of evidence today as @fcastofthemonth pointed out apparel inflation is the lowest in a"
X Link 2024-11-13T16:45Z 36.7K followers, 69.9K engagements
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