#  @Goeun_6121 Ryzm Ryzm posts on X about ai, inflation, math, liquidity the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::253138059/interactions)  ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::253138059/posts_active)  ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::253138059/followers)  ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::253138059/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 60.29% [countries](/list/countries) 12.29% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 7.43% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.86% [stocks](/list/stocks) 6% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 3.71% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 2% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 2% [currencies](/list/currencies) 1.71% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 1.43% **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai) 12.29%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #1772, [math](/topic/math) 8%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #2635, [money](/topic/money) 5.71%, [gold](/topic/gold) 5.71%, [debt](/topic/debt) 5.43%, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 5.43%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 5.14%, [fed](/topic/fed) #813 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@globalmktobserv](/creator/undefined) [@mathfiles](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@investingcom](/creator/undefined) [@blue12388](/creator/undefined) [@watcherguru](/creator/undefined) [@jessecoheninv](/creator/undefined) [@coinbureau](/creator/undefined) [@business](/creator/undefined) [@philosophyofphy](/creator/undefined) [@oopsguess](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@investingcanons](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@financelancelot](/creator/undefined) [@mignoletkr](/creator/undefined) [@nachilos](/creator/undefined) [@ruzhyox](/creator/undefined) [@stevehanke](/creator/undefined) [@mary30776604](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [BlackRock Inc (BLK)](/topic/blackrock) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "We love to call ruins Roman. As if greatness only moved in one direction. But this arch belongs to a different chapter. Built in [----] under another sky by hands that understood weight and patience. Stone remembers what empires forget. One arch. Eight centuries. Still standing" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2023093341089624237) 2026-02-15T17:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "agree but "energy" is too broad. oil is oversupplied. the real bottleneck is the grid. power demand was flat for a decade now inflecting hard. big tech already knows - thats why theyre signing 20-year nuclear PPAs instead of waiting for grid upgrades. the bet isnt energy. its transmission infrastructure. and nobody wants to fund it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023560347135996002 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023560347135996002" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2023560347135996002) 2026-02-17T00:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "the $550B US-japan fund just dropped its first $36B tranche. ohio gas plant texas LNG terminal georgia critical minerals site. read them together. this is physical AI infrastructure before anyone calls it that. data center power demand heading to [----] TWh by [----] from [---] TWh today. grid cant keep up. gas is the bridge. china still controls 98% of global gallium and 60-68% of germanium - one export restriction and your fab timeline is gone. and the structure here is JBIC loans and guarantees not cash. japan gets energy security US gets industrial capex without the fiscal hit. both sides" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2023902965740995031) 2026-02-17T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "youre right that global M2 = btc gets abused. but two fact checks: M2 is broad money not liquidity. BIS defines liquidity more like financing conditions. and M2 doesnt always rise. even the US had an outright M2 decline after [----]. halving is also not a vibe. its coded: every [------] blocks roughly [--] years cutting new supply. so the clean read is: supply schedule sets the backdrop. marginal liquidity decides the timing. narratives fill the gap after price moves. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023084591121326512 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023084591121326512" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2023084591121326512) 2026-02-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KobeissiLetter 270% checks out: MSCI USA $60.3T vs US M2 $22.4T. Just keep in mind this ratio is also a denominator story M2 was flat-to-down for a long stretch post-2022" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2023216112272331224) 2026-02-16T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HistContent so the greeks just rehypothecated the narrative. classic" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2024045747327438880) 2026-02-18T08:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NightSkyNow [--] billion years and we're stressed about quarterly earnings. perspective is free" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2024224648674889886) 2026-02-18T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@elerianm 3.7% gdp and 0.7% industrial production while the fed just said disinflation is "slower than expected." economy running too hot for cuts too leveraged for hikes. no good exits on this one" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2024233804681052164) 2026-02-18T21:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Peter Steinberger who successfully exited PSPDFKit to Insight Partners is back with Clawdbot. It is a local AI assistant that runs directly on your device. While Big Tech is paralyzed by safety compliance and guardrails the open-source community has shipped what is being called the "first true personal assistant." Early adopters are already using it to automate complex workflows and scrape millions of social media posts. The documentation bluntly states that "no setup is perfectly safe" for agents with tool access despite the built-in sandboxing. I respect the honesty. Real power always comes" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2016087716317090059) 2026-01-27T09:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@heresyfinancial Deflation is great if you have cash. Deflation is hell if you have debt. Guess which one the government has more of. That's the whole tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2018052770281263305) 2026-02-01T20:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "michael burry sounds the alarm on bitcoin crash. the actual "Big Short" guy. called [----]. BTC broke support and "sickening scenarios" now in sight. 10% more downside puts companies like MicroStrategy in billions of losses capital markets freeze up. gold and silver hit ATH while BTC dumps. burry says this proves BTC is pure speculation not digital gold. interesting take is he blames BTC for the gold/silver crash. says traders liquidated precious metals to cover crypto losses. estimates up to [--] billion in forced selling. worst case is BTC at 50K triggers miner bankruptcies and tokenized metal" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2018829977417093331) 2026-02-03T23:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Anthropic dropped a legal AI plugin and legal software stocks tanked. RELX and Wolters Kluwer both down 10%+. Pearson down 3%+. plugin does contract review NDA classification compliance workflows. built for Claude Cowork and available to all paid users. Anthropic said "assisting not replacing lawyers" but market reaction says investors see it differently. talked about Microsoft Copilot 3.3% conversion rate earlier. this is the opposite case. AI directly threatening existing software markets. legal tech vendors calling it "existential threat" might be overdone but commoditized simple features" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019015445601546571) 2026-02-04T11:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "losers: software / professional services Anthropic dropped legal AI plugin and RELX Wolters Kluwer tanked 10%+. said "assisting lawyers" but market read it as "replacing." since ChatGPT launched S&P [---] software stocks are actually negative. while chips nearly tripled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020250571043165 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020250571043165" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019020250571043165) 2026-02-04T12:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@elonmusk kinda funny when the worlds richest man says this lol. tbh id like to try being unhappy with $400b too" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019221039381938569) 2026-02-05T01:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "btc broke below $71K. trading at $70533. lowest since november [----]. down 44% from $126K ATH. red candles [--] out of [--] days. ugly. not one catalyst. liquidity dried up global tech selloff hit on AI capex fears and $75K break triggered a cascade of forced liquidations. $770M wiped in [--] hours. strong dollar + rising bond yields. warsh fed chair nomination killed rate cut expectations and risk-off spread across every asset class. silver down 17% gold weak too. "safe haven" means nothing when margin calls hit. alts getting wrecked harder. ETH -7.4% ($2098) XRP -10% SOL -6%. this isnt a crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019283500793491872) 2026-02-05T05:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Morgan Stanley Quant team (QDS) report summary. today in one line: longs got wiped. MS L/S momentum pair down -7.7% in a day. 4-sigma shock. long leg did -5.7% short leg only +1.9%. this wasnt broad degrossing. it was concentrated long liquidation. the real problem is demand vacuum. retail net buying at 16th percentile on a 1yr basis. institutional spot selling at 11th percentile. futures demand only partially recovered in the afternoon. no marginal buyer left. then leveraged ETF rebalancing dumped $18B in US equity selling. top [--] day ever. concentrated in NDX/tech/semis. semiconductor" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019326643362492808) 2026-02-05T08:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "feb [--] crypto daily. nevada court denied coinbase's request to halt prediction markets. regulatory battle still ongoing. etf flows looking rough. eth spot etf: $78M outflow. btc spot etf: $545M outflow. btc number is notable. risk-off mood short term but need a few more days to tell if it's a trend or a blip. #Crypto #BTC #ETF https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019363831781507326 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019363831781507326" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019363831781507326) 2026-02-05T10:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "same pattern different target tho. deepseek was "AI is cheaper to build" chip stocks got wrecked. nvidia -18% broadcom -11%. anthropic is "AI does your job now" software and services got wrecked. goldman software basket -6% financials -7%. fear just moved down the chain in a year. chips SaaS services. nvidia recovered after deepseek btw. this smells like another overreaction tbh. panic first math later as usual lol https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019391340099039443 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019391340099039443" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019391340099039443) 2026-02-05T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestingCanons buffett has $300B cash and no leverage. thats why he can "welcome" volatility. can you" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019570732964147541) 2026-02-06T00:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "BTC touched $60K. half off from oct ATH $126K. what happened [--]. WLFI (Trump family project) sold [--] WBTC. $5M worth. pro-crypto symbol cashing out reads as a signal. [--]. ETF outflows continue. $6B+ out since oct. institutions going risk-off. [--]. thin liquidity. shallow order books mean small sells trigger liquidations trigger more sells. classic cascade. michael burry warning of "death spiral." if BTC hits $50K miners go bankrupt Strategy gets shut out of capital markets. $60K breaks analysts see $50K mid range. but support is made to be broken. nobody knows the bottom. stay cautious until" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019611549879742549) 2026-02-06T03:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "btc spot etf outflows hit $434M on feb [--]. big names led the exit: IBIT (blackrock): -$175M FBTC (fidelity): -$109M GBTC (grayscale): -$75M grayscale mini BTC: -$35M ARKB BITB: -$23M -$16M smaller etfs (BTCO EZBC BRRR HODL BTCW) flat. no inflows no outflows. so the "institutional bid" everyone talks about it sells too. etf wrapper doesnt change human behavior. panic is panic. one day of outflows isnt a trend. but watch if this continues next week. #BTC #ETF https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659006797910069 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659006797910069" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019659006797910069) 2026-02-06T06:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@WatcherGuru buying $235M when youre sitting on billions in user funds isnt conviction. its maintenance. good for optics tho" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019683619665805448) 2026-02-06T08:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "binance buying the dip with safu funds is smart treasury management. not charity. they hold user assets in btc. price drops reserve ratio drops. topping up at lower prices keeps the fund solvent and improves their cost basis. bullish signal maybe. or just an exchange doing basic risk management. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019683842315993455 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019683842315993455" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019683842315993455) 2026-02-06T08:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CoinMarketCap crypto wanted institutional adoption. this is what it looks like. you dont get etf inflows without etf outflows. welcome to being a real asset class" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019862900094226541) 2026-02-06T19:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "sevens report on where liquidity is actually coming from: the old playbook: fed balance sheet expands stocks go up. worked from 2009-2022. clean correlation. the new reality: fed has been shrinking since [----]. stocks still rallied. something else is providing the bid. tom essayes answer: derivatives and spec desks. heres the mechanic: VIX spikes short vol strategies pile in dealers hedge by going long stocks "artificial tailwind" for indices. its not fundamentals. its positioning flow. examples: [----] vol spike led to [----] short vol paradise. early [----] vol led to post-april rally. the" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2019902678688755741) 2026-02-06T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "brooks is right on the mechanics but the bigger story is the JGB market screaming. 30yr JGB hit 3.88%. all time high. bond market already pricing in Sanaenomics before she even wins. 21T stimulus plus food tax cuts with no clear funding. duration sellers paradise. curve steepening for a reason. yen weakness isnt just a BOJ story anymore. its fiscal credibility. intervention buys you a week. yield curve repricing lasts a cycle. smart money already positioning for post-election JPY leg lower. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020060438004982084" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020060438004982084) 2026-02-07T09:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "got liquidated for $250M on leverage. now moving [----] btc spot to binance. this is the part people miss about big liquidations. the leverage blow up is just round one. round two is when they sell spot to cover margin calls or just exit. $351M hitting the binance order book isnt nothing. especially in a market where the bid is already thin. watch the depth charts not the headlines. ive seen this pattern at funds. forced seller isnt done when the position closes. theyre done when the risk manager says theyre done. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020063549436104868" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020063549436104868) 2026-02-07T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MrMikeInvesting one profitable company and seven money-losing names in the same 'millionaire maker' list. ONDS has [---] employees and -402% EBITDA margin. CRWV is burning $7B a year in cash. no stops no sizing no risk plan. this aint a portfolio its a prayer" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020083691347931155) 2026-02-07T10:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Investingcom of course the shovel seller says the gold rush isnt over. $650B in hyperscaler capex says hes not wrong. but the shovels are changing shape. ASIC backlog at broadcom is $73B. nvidia owns the cycle. the question is whether it owns the whole decade" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020096881435824317) 2026-02-07T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "crude at $63. bounce or trap. WTI closed $63.55 early feb. +10% from january but still -19% from 52-week high of $78.4. one year trend is still down double digits. structural picture is ugly. IEA warns [----] supply surplus hitting 4M bpd. brazil guyana offshore + US shale keep pumping. demand side is weakening with china slowdown and EV adoption eating into oil consumption growth. EIA forecasts [----] brent average $55. world bank says $60. OPEC alone keeps calling for 1.3-1.4M bpd demand growth for [--] straight months. market isnt listening. price is truth. but heres what most people miss. oil is" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020132609746170028) 2026-02-07T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@themotleyfool true but someone in the replies already nailed it. NYT is at all time highs. the lesson isnt "newspapers died." its "the average died. the best consolidated." same thing happening in AI right now. [---] startups will die so [--] can own everything" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020296264500543529) 2026-02-08T00:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "dow at 50K and small businesses bleeding 296K jobs in [--] months. both true at the same time. thats not a healthy economy. thats a bifurcated one. headline payrolls hide this because big firms and government keep the number positive. but credit risk starts at the bottom and works its way up. always has. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020296690247545189 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020296690247545189" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020296690247545189) 2026-02-08T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TrendingBitcoin accepting btc at a lemonade stand while grown adults are still panic selling at 63K. the kids are literally alright" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020309769429610915) 2026-02-08T01:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "HIMS pulled its $49 compounded semaglutide pill [--] hours after launch. timeline tells the whole story. thursday they launch. novo nordisk immediately calls it "illegal mass compounding" and threatens to sue. friday FDA moves to restrict GLP-1 compounding ingredients and HHS refers HIMS to DOJ. saturday HIMS folds. stock was already -14% after hours friday. "constructive conversations with stakeholders" is a nice way of saying FDA + DOJ + novo all pointed guns at the same time. semaglutide patent runs until [----]. a $49 copycat was never going to survive that. but the signal here isnt HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020312384041283979) 2026-02-08T01:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the yield fight is the real fight. everything else is noise. banks sitting on $18T in deposits earning savers almost nothing while T-bill backed stablecoins could pass through 4%+ directly. of course theyre fighting it. this isnt about "financial stability" its about protecting the spread. if stablecoin issuers cant offer yield in the US theyll just do it offshore. we've seen this movie. capital doesnt wait for congress. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020331700094660655 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020331700094660655" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020331700094660655) 2026-02-08T02:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "hayes is right on the mechanics. derivs are amplifiers not drivers. $123M in longs liquidated in 24h thats just a crowded trade unwinding. nothing exotic. but "resume up only" after clearing tourists idk. etf flows flipped negative $6B in january. mvrv still sitting at 1.2-1.5 when past cycle peaks were 3-5x that. and warsh at the fed means rate cuts are off the table longer than people think. leverage got flushed sure. doesnt mean the bid comes back tomorrow. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020336201337827649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020336201337827649" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020336201337827649) 2026-02-08T03:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "ive seen this movie before. every [--] months someone posts "this is it" and oil is flat bonds barely move and the world keeps not ending. iran talks are happening through oman right now. brent dropped to $67. the feb [--] order is tariffs not missiles. market isnt pricing armageddon. market is pricing a deal. could be wrong but. the tape doesnt lie. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020342122759745767 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020342122759745767" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020342122759745767) 2026-02-08T03:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "the anthropic engineers quote is the real signal here. "they dont write code anymore. they edit what the model writes." thats not a prediction thats a status report from inside the building. but "6 to [--] months for end-to-end" is dario selling his product at davos. the gap between "AI writes most of the code" and "AI replaces the engineer" is massive. who decides what to build who debugs the edge case at 3am who owns the architecture writing code was never the hard part. understanding what to write was. that said the market already priced this in this week. paypal -24% software stocks getting" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020353177946923078) 2026-02-08T04:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ""safe unless btc goes to 8K" is a great headline. its also the wrong risk metric. the risk for strategy was never btc going to zero. the risk is what happens to their convertible note structure when refinancing comes due in a 3.5% rate environment. 687K btc at 70K is $48B in collateral against what debt load the $17.4B quarterly loss is accounting noise under FASB fair value rules. unrealized. doesnt matter until it does. what matters: when those converts mature does the bond market price strategy as investment grade or as a levered btc fund with a software business wrapper because the spread" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020393978341011898) 2026-02-08T07:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "this is the chart they should frame and hang in every trading floor. made $61M shorting against CZ's call. correct thesis. correct direction. correct timing. then gave it all back and then some. lifetime P&L negative $10.7M. the edge was never the problem. risk management was. when youre up $61M and dont size down or take chips off the table youre not trading anymore. youre gambling with house money that stopped being house money the moment you didnt lock it in. ive seen this pattern on every desk ive sat at. the best trade of someones career becomes the thing that kills them because they" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020406921308864930) 2026-02-08T07:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "jolts at 6.54M. lowest since sept [----]. the labor market isnt crashing but its freezing. companies arent firing theyre just not hiring. slow suffocation. and this at 3.5% rates. if this trend holds fed gets forced to cut whether inflation cooperates or not. yield curve already pricing it. "soft landing" people need to check if the plane actually stopped descending. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020411458564288857 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020411458564288857" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020411458564288857) 2026-02-08T08:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "next week is dense. nfp ppi cpi retail sales. all compressed into one week. shutdown delays reshuffled everything. wednesday kicks off with nfp but friday is judgment day. cpi delayed to friday due to the shutdown. if shelter prints hot yields spike into the weekend. no time to react. its a global macro gauntlet not just a US one. save this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020426023880556918 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020426023880556918" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020426023880556918) 2026-02-08T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "term explainer #001: real rates. everyone stares at the fed funds rate. but the number that actually moves gold crypto and tech is the real rate. nominal minus inflation. right now: 3.625% - 3.0% = +0.6%. positive. policy is tight. Warsh got nominated and gold dropped 18% in two days. thats not panic. thats real rate repricing. if you dont understand real rates you dont understand why your portfolio moves. save this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020432618106536001 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020432618106536001" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020432618106536001) 2026-02-08T09:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "takaichi's LDP wins outright majority. market narrative: abenomics [---] yen weakness. but [----] and [----] are different games. back then japan was fighting deflation. now its bad inflation from import costs crushing households. the "strong japan" paradox. defense buildup and energy imports require purchasing power. tanking your own currency while buying weapons and oil from abroad is math that doesnt work. JGB market is the real constraint. BoJ already holds over half of outstanding issuance. foreign buyers leaving. who absorbs more supply yield tantrum risk is real. liz truss lasted [--] days" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020680273399263309) 2026-02-09T02:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "source checked OBBBA provisions and GENIUS Act. neither has 0% crypto tax. $650B number has no basis i can find. this reads like engagement farming. if a 0% capital gains tax on crypto actually passed you wouldnt be hearing about it from a random tweet. every exchange every fund every bank would be screaming. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020718985671770487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020718985671770487" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020718985671770487) 2026-02-09T04:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5 things moving markets this week. [--]. jobs report (wed) delayed from the govt shutdown. consensus is 70K adds vs 50K prior. labor market isnt cracking but its not hot either. openings dropped to 5yr lows in dec. powell called it "stabilizing." translation: not bad enough to cut not good enough to celebrate. [--]. CPI (fri) headline expected at 2.5% (down from 2.7%). still above the 2% target. core is the one to watch. if it stays sticky june cut is off the table. if it drops risk assets rally hard. this is the number that decides the second half of [----]. [--]. tech earnings Cisco Spotify Datadog" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020822457817723265) 2026-02-09T11:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "barclays just published what ive been saying for months. AI isnt a tech story anymore. its a macro story. productivity growth determines whether the fed cuts whether US debt stays manageable whether this whole rally has legs. christian keller's team put it plainly: "productivity is now the key." heres the thing most people miss. AI capex is demand NOW. the productivity gains come LATER. that gap is inflationary. fed vice chair jefferson basically said this. AI could temporarily push inflation higher before supply-side benefits kick in. so the very thing thats supposed to save us from higher" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020826050838606316) 2026-02-09T11:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "sharpe at [---] is real and the historical pattern is real. march [----] was SVB collapse. before that it was june [----] Luna/3AC. both were actual bottoms. but both also had a specific catalyst that flushed leverage and reset positioning. this time $329M ETF outflow in one day fear index at [--] LTH still distributing 209K BTC over [--] days. hash ribbons flashed a buy signal tho. the setup looks similar but the macro is different. rates at 3.5% with warsh coming in isnt the same backdrop as [----] when the fed was still hiking. context matters more than pattern matching." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020827004652880016) 2026-02-09T11:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ""no bad news no black swan nothing happened." except $329M ETF outflow in one day LTH distributing 209K BTC over [--] days fear index at [--] warsh nomination flipping rate expectations hawkish real rates grinding higher and a macro backdrop of 3.5% fed funds with no QE on the horizon. thats not "nothing." thats a liquidity repricing event. sentiment trading is valid. but "fear is max therefore buy" skips the part where you ask WHY fear is max. if fear is driven by structural deleveraging and institutional basis trade unwinds it doesnt just snap back because retail is scared. it snaps back when" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020831288035537095) 2026-02-09T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$100K on a 40:1 payout. thats 2.5% implied probability. polymarket gets these long shot bets every week on everything from alien disclosure to presidential assassination. most of them expire worthless. the "insider trading" framing is spicy but think about it. if you actually had advance knowledge of a US strike on iran youd buy oil calls and short equities. youd make 10x more with zero public trail. putting it on polymarket is the dumbest possible way to monetize classified intel. probably just a degen with $100K to burn who wants attention. and its working. we're all talking about it." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020947616465551508) 2026-02-09T19:47Z [---] followers, 51.1K engagements "the assumption that warsh = aggressive cuts is doing a lot of work here. warsh was the guy advocating for tightening during the [----] crisis. he pushed for fed balance sheet reduction before it was popular. trump wants lower rates but warsh has a track record of being the adult in the room who says no. market pricing 2-3 cuts through year end isnt conservative. its pricing in a fed chair who talks tough on inflation. if anything the risk is fewer cuts not more. used car prices just printed +2.4% MoM and CPI lands wednesday. if core comes in hot even [--] cuts starts looking generous. id want to" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020952752822812754) 2026-02-09T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "waller just said the quiet part out loud. "risk positions caused mainstream firms to sell crypto." thats the ETF complex and corporate treasury unwind weve been watching in real time. $329M outflow days. LTH distributing 209K BTC over [--] days. this wasnt retail panic. it was institutional risk management. "crypto clarity stalled" is the other piece. the crypto clarity act was supposed to give TradFi a regulatory framework to hold and trade digital assets. its stuck in congress. without it compliance desks at banks and funds have no green light to add or hold. so they derisk. a fed governor" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020958267934142524) 2026-02-09T20:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "the chart is brutal but it misses the context. japan ran zero rates and QE for [--] years to prevent deflation not to grow GDP. china grew by urbanizing [---] million people and running 40% investment-to-GDP ratios that are now imploding into property crisis and local government debt. takaichis real challenge isnt catching china on GDP per capita. its managing the BOJ exit from decades of monetary repression without breaking the JGB market. ueda just hiked to 0.5% and the yen is already ripping. thats the story. not the GDP chart. the rate normalization." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020983216879042953) 2026-02-09T22:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@WatcherGuru 15% GDP growth. the US hasnt hit 15% nominal since [----]. even china at peak miracle economy topped out at 14%. the entire developed world averages 2-3%. this isnt economics. its a negotiating anchor. say 15% so 3% looks like a disappointment and you can blame the fed chair" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2020985927867543855) 2026-02-09T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the split tells the story. people expect less inflation but feel worse about their finances. thats what happens when real wages are positive but dont keep up with cumulative price levels from the last [--] years. the inflation rate is cooling. the price level isnt. and thats what people actually live with. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021002327629627549 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021002327629627549" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021002327629627549) 2026-02-09T23:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investingcom cut [---] distribution workers. start advertising on ChatGPT. same earnings call. the AI economy in two headlines. capex goes to the machine. headcount goes down. ad spend goes to the platform that replaces the next batch. ive seen this movie before. it just plays faster now" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021023216114991304) 2026-02-10T00:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "107K job cuts in january alone. highest since [----]. and this is ex-government. the headline unemployment rate still looks fine because aggregate numbers always do. but the distribution is the story. tech retail distribution centers getting hollowed out while AI capex hiring runs hot. bifurcated labor market in real time. aggregate numbers look fine. the distribution is ugly. weve seen this movie before with globalization. same script different decade. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021034472863670766 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021034472863670766" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021034472863670766) 2026-02-10T01:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@dividendology the average is a lie you survive long enough to earn. most people dont hold through the -30% years to collect the +26% years. thats the real injustice. not the volatility. the behavior gap" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021035159454384534) 2026-02-10T01:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the analogy is fun but silver has better fundamentals than megan foxs filmography. [---] tonnes on the shanghai exchange. thats -88% from [----] peak. industrial demand from solar and EVs isnt going away. this isnt a transformers hype cycle. its a supply squeeze with actual demand behind it. could still be a painful hold tho. fair. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063760685957491 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063760685957491" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021063760685957491) 2026-02-10T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "target just cut [---] distribution jobs and started advertising on chatgpt in the same week. the chart is catching up to the fundamentals. costco and kroger are holding because theyre not trying to be everything. target got stuck between walmart on price and amazon on convenience. when you lose that positioning game the chart does exactly this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063984972169423 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063984972169423" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021063984972169423) 2026-02-10T03:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TheBTCTherapist 15% GDP isnt happening. but if it did the inflation that comes with it would send BTC to the moon and the dollar to the floor. careful what you wish for" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021072224141349213) 2026-02-10T04:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "CPI drops wednesday. if you dont know the difference between CPI and PCE or why real rates matter more than nominal save this thread.inflation [---]. swipe through" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021104719423590681) 2026-02-10T06:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "goldman commodity research is telling clients: the hard asset rotation is real. and the math behind it is simple. commodity markets are tiny compared to equities and bonds. when portfolio allocators decide they want 0.01% more gold exposure gold moves 1.5%. thats how thin this market is. why metals over energy three reasons. market size. metals markets are much smaller. same dollar inflow = bigger price move. supply response. oil goes up shale pumps more. copper and gold supply is constrained and production cycles are measured in decades. storage. energy hits tank limits and futures carry" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021109644589187185) 2026-02-10T06:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "fair point from dalio. the capability is real. but the surveillance part isnt new - governments already track most financial activity through existing rails. what CBDCs actually add is programmability. expiry dates on money spending restrictions instant taxation. china is live with this on e-CNY right now. the US chose stablecoins over a fed CBDC. different packaging similar questions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112355372007498 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112355372007498" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021112355372007498) 2026-02-10T06:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "agree with the sentiment but exchanges wont stop because the math works. memecoin listings drive volume volume drives revenue revenue keeps the lights on. its not a respect problem its an incentive problem. the fix isnt hoping exchanges grow a conscience. its regulation that separates casino from infrastructure. EU's MiCA is starting to do this. the US is still figuring it out. until then the industry will keep eating itself for short-term fees. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112848622195115 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112848622195115" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021112848622195115) 2026-02-10T06:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "respect for owning the $80K call. the STH realized loss data is real and $1.5B is a significant flush. capitulation of that scale does tend to mark local bottoms historically. but onchain alone doesnt set the floor. the macro backdrop hasnt changed. fed funds still at 3.50-3.75% rate cut expectations down to maybe two this year ETFs saw roughly $6B in net outflows over january. hash ribbons flashed a buy signal which is worth noting but that indicator worked best in previous cycles when liquidity was expanding. right now its not. the part that makes me cautious: LTH distributed over 200K BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021150583986716860) 2026-02-10T09:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "TSMC january revenue: $12.7B. +37% YoY. above their own 30% annual growth target. lunar new year timing might have inflated this a bit but the trend is clear. the AI demand pull is real. data center and AI accelerator chips are driving the growth. TSMC is planning up to $56B in capex this year 25% more than [----]. but heres the part the headline doesnt tell you. the hyperscaler capex cycle is getting extreme. total spending went from $335B in [----] to an expected $600B+ in [----]. amazon meta microsoft google are all in an arms race. meta alone committed $600B over three years. the question" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021151441558376561) 2026-02-10T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "this is the chart nobody in DC wants to talk about. interest expense is now competing with defense for the top line in the federal budget. and unlike defense you cant negotiate it down. the math gets worse from here. $9T in treasuries need to roll over in the next [--] months. if rates stay at 3.5-3.75% every refi locks in higher coupons replacing debt that was issued at near-zero. "unsustainable" is the right word but its also the wrong framing. unsustainable things dont stop. they just get monetized. thats the whole playbook. the question isnt if this breaks. its how they choose to paper over" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021159679439847558) 2026-02-10T09:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "framing matters here. no bitcoin was "sent." an employee typed BTC instead of KRW on an internal ledger during a promo event. 620K ghost coins appeared on screen for [--] minutes. 99.7% clawed back same day. the real story isnt the fat finger. its that CEXs can credit assets they dont hold because settlement happens off-chain. bithumb had 42K btc on books. credited 620K. no system flagged it. thats the structural risk. not your keys not your coins isnt a meme. its an engineering statement. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021160309399195813 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021160309399195813" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021160309399195813) 2026-02-10T09:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ken fisher on whether a new fed chair actually changes anything. short answer: possible but rare. the chair doesnt dictate policy alone. they persuade. FOMC members vote and each one already has a view shaped by years of staff interaction. the chair walks in with ideas. the staff walks them back. volcker did it. dragged the board into a regime change. but thats the exception not the rule. most chairs get absorbed by the institution not the other way around. the warsh question then becomes: is he a volcker or is he another suit who gets staff-pilled within [--] months his track record says hawk" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021162926326022539) 2026-02-10T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ecb economists basically just admitted tariffs are doing their job for them. the logic: US tariffs hit eurozone exports demand drops prices fall. eurozone CPI already at 1.7% below the 2% target. the deflation problem is getting worse not better. but heres the interesting part. the sectors getting crushed by tariffs - machinery autos chemicals - are also the most rate-sensitive. meaning ECB rate cuts would directly stimulate the exact industries that tariffs are killing. so the policy playbook writes itself. tariffs compress demand inflation undershoots ECB cuts more cheap money flows into" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021163516754002306) 2026-02-10T10:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the G10 vs EM divergence in this chart is the signal. dollar is weakening against EM currencies faster than against G10. that tells you its not just rate differentials driving this - its capital flow rotation. twin deficits $9T in treasury rollovers ahead and a fed chair transition creating policy uncertainty. the structural case for dollar weakness was already there. tariffs just accelerated the timeline by forcing trade partners to diversify away from dollar-denominated flows. the greenland comparison is smart. that was peak "strong dollar through intimidation" and the trade-weighted index" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021200192779976945) 2026-02-10T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "blackrock has moved $10B in crypto exposure since jan [--]. but most of that is valuation change from the drawdown not active selling. actual holdings dropped [----] btc and 138K eth. big difference. also they bought $775M back the next day after their largest feb [--] dump. thats not "bad news coming." thats a fund rebalancing around vol. timing it to the market structure bill meeting is a narrative not a fact. correlation isnt causation. especially when the same fund is filing for a bitcoin premium income ETF the same week. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201366039843176" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021201366039843176) 2026-02-10T12:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@unusual_whales goldman warning about selling pressure is goldman telling you theyve already repositioned. the call is never early when its coming from the sell side" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021201855834096124) 2026-02-10T12:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "JPM calling $6300 gold while its sitting at $5100 after an 18% crash from the january highs. thats a bold call. not wrong necessarily but the path matters more than the target. central bank buying is real - record pace since [----] and that structural bid isnt going away. but the warsh nomination just killed the "dollar debasement" trade that powered the run from $4000 to $5600. so now gold has to find a new narrative. if its "fiscal dominance + debt monetization" then $6300 is conservative. if its "hawkish fed + strong dollar" then we retest $4500 first. price targets without scenarios are" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021203206399984068) 2026-02-10T12:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "229% debt-to-GDP and theyre raising rates. let that sink in. every 25bps hike at this debt level costs japans treasury roughly 2.5T in additional annual interest. boj isnt tightening because the economy is strong. theyre tightening because the yen was dying. this is what "no good options" looks like on a national balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021207896705597482) 2026-02-10T13:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "so the setup is: systematic sellers locked in on the sell side across every scenario and the only bid holding this market up is corporate buybacks. that works until it doesnt. buyback windows close around earnings. CTAs dont care about fundamentals - they sell on momentum and vol triggers. if we get a real flush day where buybacks cant absorb the flow the air pocket under this market is real. -$11.2B CTA selling vs buyback desk activity up 40%. thats not a healthy market. thats two machines fighting each other. retail just happens to be standing in the middle." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021208169054416929) 2026-02-10T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "thats exactly the point. deflation + rate hikes = theyre not tightening for the economy. theyre tightening for the currency. and yields are low because boj spent a decade doing yield curve control. now theyre unwinding that. 10Y JGB already hit 30-year highs last month. "low" is relative when the direction is up and the debt is 229% of GDP. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021209735991591356 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021209735991591356" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021209735991591356) 2026-02-10T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investingcom beat on earnings miss on revenue. translation: they sold less coke but charged you more for it. inflation hedge in a can" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021210295088316429) 2026-02-10T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "youre probably thinking of japans FX intervention - that was the ministry of finance not the fed. they spent $62B in [----] buying yen when it hit [---] to the dollar. but intervention is a band-aid. it buys time doesnt fix the problem. the only real fix for a dying currency is higher rates. and thats exactly what boj is doing now - hiking into weakness because the alternative is worse. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210656259834121 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210656259834121" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021210656259834121) 2026-02-10T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "two things here that tell you everything about where we are. trump says warsh can get 15% GDP growth. the bond market is pricing 4.2% on the 10Y and a curve thats steepening on rate cuts not growth. someone is wrong and its not the bond market. meanwhile alphabet just issued a 100-year bond in sterling and swiss francs. a tech company locking in foreign currency debt for a century. thats not confidence in the dollar. thats a hedge against it. and they raised $20B in the US right before this. smart money is telling you the dollar story and the growth story dont match. the math doesnt work for" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021212391867109511) 2026-02-10T13:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "oh youre talking about the fed rate check from a couple weeks ago. yeah thats different from direct intervention - a rate check is the fed calling dealers to ask for quotes on yen. its a signal not an action. basically the fed saying "we're watching." but my point still stands. rate checks and interventions buy time. they dont fix a structural currency problem. boj hiking is the only real fix. everything else is theater. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021212989920248147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021212989920248147" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021212989920248147) 2026-02-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "this is the most crowded short in fixed income right now. and crowded shorts have a way of unwinding violently. everyone is short duration because they think rates stay higher for longer. but if we get a real growth scare - and the labor market is already softening - the unwind on 150M shares of TLT short interest would be one of the biggest short squeezes in bond market history. [--] years of bear market in long bonds means [--] years of built-up positioning that assumes one outcome. the moment the narrative flips from "inflation forever" to "oh wait the economy is actually slowing" this trade" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021215322267881613) 2026-02-10T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Tyler_Durden77 @zerohedge exactly. monday morning is when the desks are most active. which means if CTAs are selling into that same window today is the real test of whether buybacks can absorb the flow" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021215555093434435) 2026-02-10T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "half right. AI and robotics are deflationary for goods and services. thats real. but tariffs are the opposite - theyre a tax on imports that gets passed to consumers. putting tariffs on the same list as AI is contradictory. and "print more cut rates" isnt free. core PCE is still at 3.0% real rates are positive and the fed just watched warsh get nominated specifically to keep inflation in check. the political pressure to print is there. the institutional willingness isnt. not yet. deflation in production inflation in policy. thats not a clean story. thats a tug of war." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021223448706679133) 2026-02-10T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@saoif_noob @Investingcom if its working for you then keep going. genuinely. im not here to convince anyone. just pointing out that central bank buying data is audited and public not a conspiracy. good luck out there" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021224942994378878) 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JesseCohenInv $30K motorcycle in an economy where real retail sales just went negative YoY. HOG isnt a stock problem. its a consumer problem wearing a leather jacket" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021226395624431667) 2026-02-10T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the feedback loop is already running. consumers stop spending businesses cut hours wages cool consumers spend even less. thats what this table is showing in one snapshot. and heres the trap: the fed cant cut yet because core PCE is still at 3.0% and they just got a new chair nominee whos supposed to be the inflation hawk. cutting now would destroy warsh's credibility before he even starts. so the economy is slowing into a fed thats politically frozen. rate cuts will come but not until something breaks visibly enough to give them cover. by then the feedback loop is already 2-3 quarters deep." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021227433043935387) 2026-02-10T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "50% expect stocks to go up. 50% expect unemployment to rise. both cant be right and historically its the labor market that wins. this is what late-cycle euphoria looks like. retail is bullish on the market while being bearish on their own job prospects. thats not confidence thats cognitive dissonance funded by 401k autopilot. last time sentiment was this stretched vs economic reality was late [----]. not saying its [----]. but the gap between vibes and data has a way of closing fast and closing ugly" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021298900834058734) 2026-02-10T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv 74x CAPE on growth stocks while real retail sales are going negative. the earnings these valuations are pricing in require a consumer thats already tapping out. math implies pain" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021307483311177954) 2026-02-10T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "this is why beijing cant export its way out of this. you can subsidize manufacturing all you want but when your own consumers wont spend youre just exporting deflation to the rest of the world. home sales -50% from [----]. thats not a correction thats a generational wealth shock. chinese households had 70% of their wealth in real estate. that confidence doesnt come back with a rate cut or a stimulus check. it takes years. and this is the backdrop for trumps beijing visit next month. china needs a deal more than the headlines suggest. the leverage isnt where most people think it is." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021324238280626349) 2026-02-10T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "fair point. the buyback-CTA cycle does reset and thats been the pattern for the last [--] years. no argument there. the part i watch is when the cycle breaks - buyback blackout windows a vol shock that forces CTAs to sell faster than desks can absorb or credit spreads widening enough to make buyback financing expensive. none of that is happening today. but at 150M shares short on TLT and retail sitting at peak bullishness the margin for error is thin. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021337630600986866 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021337630600986866" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021337630600986866) 2026-02-10T21:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "supply side story is solid. rig count down 30% production finally rolling over shorts at decade highs. classic setup for a squeeze. but heres what most energy bulls miss: demand is the variable now not supply. china consumer confidence at record lows US real retail sales negative global manufacturing PMIs barely above [--]. you can have a supply story and still lose if demand falls faster. the wildcard is data centers. AI power demand is the one structural demand driver that didnt exist [--] years ago. if that holds energy wins on the margin even in a slowdown. but "firmly bullish" without" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021340770977063107) 2026-02-10T21:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "yesterday's tape. US core retail sales came in at 0.0%. estimate was +0.4%. this is december peak holiday season and the consumer just. stopped. control group was -0.1% which feeds directly into GDP. atlanta fed's GDPNow slashed Q4 growth from 4.2% to 3.7% right after. market closed mixed. S&P -0.33% nasdaq -0.59% dow +0.10%. but heres the thing - about [---] names in the S&P were actually green. equal weight index closed up. mag7 dragged while money rotated into cheaper names. thats not broadening. thats musical chairs. alphabet issued $20B in US debt then went and sold 100-year bonds in" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021372418682651004) 2026-02-10T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "104 tonnes in shanghai vaults up 500% since mid-2025. and Q2 [----] it was under [--] tonnes. yeah thats not retail buying gold chains. chinese consumers just put $2.65B into gold ETFs in january alone. consumer confidence at record lows housing down 50% from [----] yuan under pressure. when your property market dies and you dont trust the currency gold is what you buy. this is structural not speculative. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021384340463382646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021384340463382646" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021384340463382646) 2026-02-11T00:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "139 leveraged tech ETFs. retail can now 3x long nvidia on their phone while waiting for coffee. this is how late-cycle excess gets packaged and sold. the ETF industry doesnt care if you make money. they care that you trade. more products = more fees more flow more volatility when it unwinds. we'll see how [---] leveraged long funds feel when tech has a real down month. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393569907605978 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393569907605978" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021393569907605978) 2026-02-11T01:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "hiring rate at 3.3%. thats [----] territory. let that sit for a second. everyone keeps saying "unemployment is low so the economy is fine" but thats backwards. hiring freezes come first. layoffs come after. by the time the unemployment rate catches up the damage is already done. ive seen this exact sequence play out before. todays jobs print is gonna be interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021394927561969770 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021394927561969770" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021394927561969770) 2026-02-11T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "feb [--] was one of those days where everything moved but nothing agreed on why. bad data dropped. small biz optimism down retail sales flat. macro surprise index tanked. bond market did what it always does - priced in cuts. 60bp of easing now baked in for the year. 10Y fell curve bull flattened. textbook stuff. but stocks didnt get the memo. rate cuts are usually bullish for equities right not when the reason is "oh the economy might actually be breaking." thats a different kind of rate cut. the kind you dont want. financials got wrecked on an altruist headline about AI tax tools. the funny" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021396603874279468) 2026-02-11T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "EM divergence is getting wider and AI is the wedge. blackrock is making the case that emerging markets arent moving as a block anymore. korea ripped another 20%+ after last years rally. india is lagging even with a US trade deal in pocket. same asset class completely different tape. the through-line is AI hardware. korea and taiwan are riding the semiconductor capex wave - hyperscalers keep announcing bigger spend and the supply chain runs through these markets. its not just chips either. copper industrial metals manufacturing infrastructure - all sitting in EM. the AI buildout needs physical" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021397663250514212) 2026-02-11T01:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "usd/jpy [------] down 0.66%. yen catching a bid as US rate cut expectations build. 60bp of easing priced in for the year now and todays jobs print could add more. meanwhile boj is still on the hiking path. the rate gap is narrowing from both sides. this trade has more room to run. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021441945990480042 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021441945990480042" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021441945990480042) 2026-02-11T04:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "china issuing 14B yuan in sovereign bonds in hong kong today. offshore yuan bond issuance has been ramping up quietly. beijing is building a parallel funding channel outside the dollar system while the consumer at home is frozen. cant fix domestic demand so theyre exporting capital infrastructure instead. same playbook different packaging. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021442445897236964 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021442445897236964" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021442445897236964) 2026-02-11T04:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@coinbureau speculative era ending = the smart money figured out how to speculate with better PR" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021519034790138297) 2026-02-11T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Mrcryptoxwhale leverage is not a strategy. its a liquidation timer" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021523111674630484) 2026-02-11T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "japan just printed 1342T in national debt. thats a new record. up 24.5T from last year. to put that in context - the increase alone is roughly a third of japans annual tax revenue (75T). theyre borrowing a third of what they collect just to keep the lights on. and heres where it gets interesting for bond people. takaichi just won a supermajority on a platform of "responsible aggressive fiscal policy." translation - more spending more JGB issuance more supply hitting a market where BOJ is the only real bid. meanwhile BOJ is hiking. current rate 0.75% BofA sees 1.00% by april. on a 1342T debt" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021525183195152386) 2026-02-11T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "gold bouncing around $5038 after that brutal $600 drop from the january highs. silver at $81.50. not dead but not healthy either. whats moving it today: US retail sales came in weak. consumer spending cooling treasury yields dropping dollar struggling to recover from mondays selloff. classic "bad data = gold bid" setup. but this isnt a clean rally. three things fighting each other right now. bullish pressure - weak retail data means the economy is slowing. slower economy means higher odds of fed cuts. lower rates = gold likes that. yields are already pulling back and dollar cant find a floor." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021526151198630347) 2026-02-11T10:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "fear and greed at extreme lows has historically been a decent contrarian signal. thats fair. but the comparison needs work. post-COVID was zero rates and unlimited QE. post-LUNA had rate cut expectations already baked in. today we're at 3.5-3.75% with a hawkish fed chair nominee and ETF outflows still running. the backdrop isnt the same. also the +900% after LUNA - BTC bottomed around $17K and peaked at $108K. thats roughly +535% not +900%. numbers matter when youre calling a bottom. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021526534717141309 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021526534717141309" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021526534717141309) 2026-02-11T10:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "most people know about yield curve inversion. few understand why the danger is when it uninverts. the 10Y-2Y spread sat inverted for [--] months - october [----] to december [----]. longest since the 1970s. now its back positive at +71bps and steepening. heres the thing most miss: the curve isnt normalizing because the economy is healthy. the 2Y is dropping faster than the 10Y because the market is pricing in fed cuts. this is bull steepening - and historically its the phase where recessions actually hit. [----] [----] [----] [----]. every time. the inversion is the warning. the uninversion is the event." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021527668471325054) 2026-02-11T10:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Mayhem4Markets @jpmorgan @TraderadeTweets dotcom SaaS crashed because of valuations. this SaaS is crashing because AI might replace the product. thats a different kind of cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021528818826309980) 2026-02-11T10:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@CryptoGirlNova this. bottoms are built not bounced. the people who got rekt at $100K-80K werent wrong about direction. they were wrong about timing. and in leveraged markets timing is everything. patience isnt sexy but its cheaper than catching knives" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021531882081722861) 2026-02-11T10:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@0xkyle__ im using these models daily for research writing analysis. the jump from GPT-4 to whats out now isnt incremental. its a different tool entirely. people still comparing it to "fancy autocomplete" havent touched the new ones" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021536813928861751) 2026-02-11T10:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JesseCohenInv theyre not trading like meme coins. meme coins dont have central banks buying 1000+ tons a year. gold is dedollarization. silver is solar panels. copper is AI data centers eating the power grid. the move has fundamentals. it just doesnt feel like it because the speed is unusual" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021540620633047482) 2026-02-11T11:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@robin_j_brooks when good data cant lift the dollar the story has changed. the market isnt pricing US strength anymore. its pricing US fiscal risk. thats a different trade entirely" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021644275256324120) 2026-02-11T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "-584K revision on [----] payrolls. 181K total for the year. thats not a strong labor market. thats barely a pulse. fed held rates up thinking jobs were fine. they werent. the data was just late. same story every cycle - bankruptcy filings at [----] levels curve uninverting ECI stuck. the cracks were already there. the revisions just made them visible. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021648944389140553 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021648944389140553" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021648944389140553) 2026-02-11T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "credit card balances at $1.28T. average APR at 21%. 18-29 year olds at 9.5% serious delinquency. do the math on that for a second. kids who started spending in the free money era are now paying 21% on debt they took out when rates were zero. this is the part of the "strong consumer" story nobody wants to talk about. aggregate numbers look fine because the top is fine. the bottom is drowning. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021668562260414771 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021668562260414771" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021668562260414771) 2026-02-11T19:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BoringBiz_ 181K for the full year. thats not a slowdown. thats a hiring freeze with good PR. and the squeeze on young grads is real - offshoring takes the low end AI takes the middle. the entry ramp is disappearing from both directions" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021671848648507525) 2026-02-11T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter $18.8T in household debt at 21% credit card APR and 7%+ mortgage rates. the "strong consumer" is borrowing to look strong. thats not spending power. thats a balance sheet getting hollowed out from the inside" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021677268192669950) 2026-02-11T20:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "long day. charts off phone down. seoul is freezing but the sky cleared up for the first time this week. sometimes thats enough" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021690823289819285) 2026-02-11T21:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TaviCosta the dollar losing its trendline NFP beating with no DXY response non-US equities best start since [----]. the rotation isnt coming. its here. most people just havent repriced it yet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021692490974482752) 2026-02-11T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@yieldsearcher everyone talks about AI capex in chips and software. nobody talks about the electricity bill. data centers are power plants that happen to compute. coal gas nuclear - whatever keeps the lights on. the energy bottleneck is the trade nobody is positioned for" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021718042779238690) 2026-02-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Brendan_Duke point [--] is the one nobody is modeling. AI buildout needs power copper data centers - all physical all capital intensive. thats inflationary at the input level while being deflationary at the output level. rates stay higher because the capex cycle demands it" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021757641534672946) 2026-02-12T01:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FinanceLancelot yen carry unwind was the story last summer at [---]. [---] isnt panic yet but the direction matters more than the level. BOJ is hiking toward 1% while the fed is stuck. that rate differential closing is what kills carry trades. not a single print" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021771405894074618) 2026-02-12T02:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "this is the playbook. weak dollar = gold and EM outperform US equities lag. weve been watching every piece of this fall into place today. DXY losing its trendline NFP beat with no dollar bid non-US at best start in [--] years. the rotation has a historical script and its running it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021797721452224882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021797721452224882" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021797721452224882) 2026-02-12T04:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv revised down [--] out of [--] months. thats not error. thats systematic overstatement. the fed made policy based on numbers that didnt exist. and todays 130K headline will probably get the same treatment in two months" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021798351050879318) 2026-02-12T04:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SJosephBurns the vote is symbolic. veto is near certain and 2/3 override isnt happening. what matters for markets is the signal - cracks in party unity on tariffs. that changes the negotiating leverage even if the policy doesnt change yet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021799605399396614) 2026-02-12T04:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@business expansive spending with BOJ hiking toward 1% on a 229% debt-to-GDP balance sheet. investors arent worried about Takaichi. theyre worried about the bond math. every 25bp costs another 2.5T in interest" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021799791429399020) 2026-02-12T04:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@business hedge funds flipping long yen even after a hot NFP print. that tells you the trade isnt about US rates anymore. its about the rate differential closing. BOJ hiking while the fed is frozen. smart money already repositioning for the carry unwind" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021800201858801977) 2026-02-12T04:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investingcom selling your treasuries while keeping the trade truce alive. thats not diplomacy. thats hedging. china is de-risking the balance sheet while keeping the trade channel open. both sides need the april meeting to go well but for very different reasons" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021829202224517345) 2026-02-12T06:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv 10Y rising while the dollar falls. thats the chart that matters. when yields go up and the currency still weakens the bond market isnt attracting capital anymore. its demanding compensation. thats not safe haven behavior" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021842327061639652) 2026-02-12T07:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "interest expense on track to be 2x the defense budget. and treasury had the chance to lock in low rates on the long end during ZIRP. they didnt. thats a duration management failure that will compound for decades. the bond math is already unforgiving and CBO projections assume no recession. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021842608268751283 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021842608268751283" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021842608268751283) 2026-02-12T07:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "january CPI preview. drops tomorrow night (feb [--] 8:30am ET). december was 2.7% headline 2.6% core. consensus has both coming down to around 2.5%. looks like cooling on the surface. under the hood its messier. january is when annual price resets hit. december tends to print the lowest of the year and this time the shutdown distortions pushed it even lower. the base effect sets up a bounce. energy isnt clean either. gasoline pulled back but the winter storm in late january spiked electricity and nat gas. the offset means energy barely helps the print. shelter still stuck near 3%. used cars" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021864354497634476) 2026-02-12T08:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investingcom loosening the leash on banks right when credit card delinquencies hit 12.7% and household debt is at $18.8T. interesting timing" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021866857985454588) 2026-02-12T08:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "hedge funds flipping long yen. were short last week on Takaichi fiscal spending fears. election over position reversed. the logic is clean. fiscal concerns fading + japan signaling FX intervention readiness + BOJ hiking toward 1%. put volume on yen 50% above calls in the options market. citi says both hedge funds and asset managers selling dollar-yen. but heres the real tell. NFP beat yesterday and the dollar still couldnt rally. when strong US data cant lift the dollar going long yen is the right direction. the market is pricing US fiscal risk not US growth. BOJ hiking while the fed is" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021875497832264010) 2026-02-12T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the market is a casino. not a metaphor. heres the math. 0DTE options - expire same day. these now account for 78% of daily Nasdaq [---] volume and 65% of S&P [---] volume. up from 55% and 50% just a year ago. people arent buying stocks. theyre betting on whether the next few hours go up or down. thats what dominates the tape now. why it matters. 0DTE has extremely high gamma. small price moves cause massive swings in option value and dealers have to delta hedge in real time. when the market tilts one way that hedging flow amplifies the move. any gap triggers a cascade. put simply - most of the" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021877035980009627) 2026-02-12T09:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "when the administration ties its credibility to stock prices the put is implicit. every wobble becomes a policy response. thats not free markets. thats a feedback loop where intervention is the floor. and tavi is right - thats structurally bullish for hard assets. if the response to every drawdown is more liquidity or fiscal support the currency pays the bill. gold at $5K isnt an accident. its pricing exactly this dynamic. nominal highs in stocks real gains in gold. the denominator is doing the work. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021880196765528448" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021880196765528448) 2026-02-12T09:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "RYZM Term Explainer #005: Carry Trade yen BOJ hikes carry unwind everywhere on the timeline. heres what the carry trade actually is why it matters and where we are right now. BOJ at 0.75% hiking toward 1%. fed frozen at 3.50%. when the spread narrows the math on [--] years of free money flips. august [----] was the trailer. #CarryTrade #BOJ #MacroEducation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021884532006494586 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021884532006494586" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021884532006494586) 2026-02-12T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bitunix_ryanlee "crisis is opportunity" is what people say after the bottom not during it. during the actual crisis most people freeze overlever or panic sell. the edge isnt mindset. its cash a plan and the discipline to size correctly when everyone else is puking" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021888975485755478) 2026-02-12T10:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "kremlin responds to US tariff threat over cuba support - "we dont want escalation but we dont have any trade turnover with the US right now." translation - you cant tariff what doesnt exist. sanctions already severed the trade link. threatening tariffs on a country you already cut off is an empty gun. the real question isnt russia's response. its where this goes next. if the US is poking at the cuba-russia line thats a signal on secondary sanctions expansion. watch who's next. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021892206903300494 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021892206903300494" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021892206903300494) 2026-02-12T10:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "the data checks out but "BREAKING" and "unprecedented" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here lol. WUI counts how often "uncertain" appears in EIU reports. its literally a word frequency index. uncertainty is high yeah no kidding. tariffs flipping daily Fed stuck two hot wars. but equities at ATH and credit spreads contained tells you markets arent pricing apocalypse. yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021898133706617081 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021898133706617081" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021898133706617081) 2026-02-12T10:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "AI didnt suck capital out of crypto. 3.5% risk-free rates did. why would anyone chase memecoin volatility when tbills exist. the attention part is fair tho. AI stole the narrative and the talent followed the narrative. but crypto infra is still getting built quietly - BUIDL at $1.8B RWA hitting $35B+ DePIN actually generating revenue. the noise left. the plumbing stayed. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021901671446577446 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021901671446577446" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021901671446577446) 2026-02-12T10:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@business @scottlincicome @opinion tariffs are a consumer tax with a flag on it. trade reroutes margins get added in transit and the end buyer pays. beijing figured this out in [----]. not sure why we're still acting surprised" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021903618610540632) 2026-02-12T11:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the ore grade decline is the part most people miss. youre not just finding less copper youre extracting less copper per ton of rock. cost curves go parabolic from here. and this is happening right as AI buildout needs copper for every data center every transformer every cable. supply math broken while demand accelerates. thats not a cycle thats structural" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021906006926929993) 2026-02-12T11:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@goldchartbook the real question is whether this flips. if rates stay here or go higher bonds keep bleeding. if something breaks and the fed has to cut hard bonds rip and gold gives back. decade isnt over yet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021907010401513751) 2026-02-12T11:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "same pattern everywhere. AI GDP goes to the companies that build the chips. not to the workers who build the economy around them. taiwan is just the clearest version of this because the concentration is so extreme - one company is basically the entire growth story. 70% earning under $1500/month while the economy posts 15-year highs. thats not a boom. thats a subsidy from the many to the few with GDP as the receipt. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021908129622139390 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021908129622139390" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021908129622139390) 2026-02-12T11:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@graddhybpc parabolic curves are fun until they arent. the setup is valid but "as long as the curve holds" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. gold just did -18% in two weeks off the warsh nomination. curves break when the macro shifts under them" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021909985253605804) 2026-02-12T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "full disclosure im a claude power user and completely biased here lol. but $20B from thiel DE shaw and dragoneer isnt dumb money chasing hype. these are the funds that do the math first. anthropic is quietly building the thing most AI companies only talk about - actual safety research that ships into product. using claude daily changed how i work and think. not saying that as an ad saying it as someone who tested every model out there. the AI race has a lot of noise. this is signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021910440201327027 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021910440201327027" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021910440201327027) 2026-02-12T11:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "cpi tomorrow is the one that matters. market is pricing [--] cuts this year while jobs keep coming in strong. if cpi prints hot again that 2-cut narrative dies fast and bonds sell off. the fed is stuck. labor market wont crack inflation wont drop. theyre running out of reasons to cut. watch real rates not the headline number - thats where the actual pain signal lives. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021912568043102538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021912568043102538" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021912568043102538) 2026-02-12T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""trump insider with 100% win rate" is doing so much heavy lifting lol. one wallet making big bets before events could be anything - market maker hedging fund rebalancing or just someone with a bloomberg terminal and conviction. $110M short before CPI is a trade not a prophecy. if he's wrong nobody will screenshot this. if he's right it becomes "proof." thats how survivorship bias works in real time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021913784886210958 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021913784886210958" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2021913784886210958) 2026-02-12T11:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$5000 broke again. [--] minutes. this is what happens when a crowded trade meets a macro regime shift. gold ran on rate cut hopes and inflation fear. both narratives are cracking - jobs strong fed stuck warsh incoming. the bid is gone when everyone is long the same thesis. classic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022001545953661302 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022001545953661302" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022001545953661302) 2026-02-12T17:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "headline cooling but core accelerating m/m is the worst combo for the fed. they cant point to progress when the sticky stuff is reheating. 0.34% monthly core annualizes to over 4%. thats not "path to 2%." and that forecast range tells the real story - [----] to [----] is massive. nobody knows how to model tariff passthrough yet. the fog is the signal. when the smartest rooms on the street cant agree within 17bps the fed sure as hell isnt cutting with confidence. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022002346822414448 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022002346822414448" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022002346822414448) 2026-02-12T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@robin_j_brooks strong data + dollar weakening is a regime break. normally hot jobs = dollar up. if that flips everything downstream changes. DXY is the tide everything else is just boats" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022010770838753588) 2026-02-12T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter apple down 5% on a CPI day. not an apple story its a duration story. when rates reprice higher the longest duration assets get hit hardest. and what has a higher duration than a $3T company priced on earnings [--] years out" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022011009712701605) 2026-02-12T18:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "what happened today in one thread: hot CPI killed the rate cut dream. core m/m accelerated to 0.34% while the market was still pricing [--] cuts. the fed isnt cutting into this. math doesnt work. then everything sold together. gold stocks crypto silver - correlations went to [--]. thats not sector rotation. thats liquidity leaving. when everyone needs cash at the same time nothing is a safe haven. S&P -1% Nasdaq -1.6% small caps -2%. apple alone dropped 5%. not an apple story - a duration story. longest duration assets get hit hardest when rates reprice. and underneath all of this the AI scare" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022034214313746438) 2026-02-12T19:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv record inflows into gold ETFs in january and then gold drops -3.5% today below $5000. thats a lot of new longs underwater right now. crowded trades dont need a reason to unwind they just need one bad CPI print" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022038200873890151) 2026-02-12T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "washed my hair made ramyeon watching something dumb on netflix. this is the real alpha" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022042035579134316) 2026-02-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "people ask me what AI tool to use. doesnt matter. the ones who learn to ask better questions will outperform the ones who chase better models. the edge isnt the tool its you" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022042807117254745) 2026-02-12T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "tariff front-running turned copper into a strategic asset overnight. US imports doubled in [----] and stockpiles up 6400% since june [----]. this isnt demand its hoarding before the gate closes. when the tariff actually hits the rest of the world faces a squeeze while the US sits on a mountain of inventory. classic trade war playbook. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022059173576654907 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022059173576654907" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022059173576654907) 2026-02-12T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "GAAP EPS -$2.49 looks shocking but dig into it - thats mostly unrealized losses on their crypto holdings hitting the books. btc dropped 50% from ATH last quarter. non-GAAP was $0.66 which still missed but isnt a disaster. revenue $1.78B down 21% YoY. the headline is designed to scare. the actual business is hurting but not dying. know the difference between accounting pain and operational pain. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022060351572127848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022060351572127848" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022060351572127848) 2026-02-12T21:28Z [---] followers, 11.3K engagements "@mignoletkr this is the part most people get wrong. real capitulation doesnt look like "buying the dip." it looks like nobody wanting to buy at all. right now people are still arguing about entries. thats not fear thats negotiation. fear is when the comment section goes quiet" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022087119783833766) 2026-02-12T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the market right now is getting squeezed from two directions and nobody is talking about both at the same time. from above: inflation wont die. CPI prints tonight and the street expects core at 0.3%+ m/m. if it comes in hot again the 2-cut narrative is done. the fed is stuck at 3.5% with no room to move. real rates stay elevated. duration gets punished. from below: AI is eating margin structures alive. started with SaaS. moved to insurance credit real estate services. yesterday it hit logistics - CHRW posted an 8-sigma move. one AI platform claims +400% freight volume without adding" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022091070566490530) 2026-02-12T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "11 weeks straight into high-grade bonds. smart money locking in 3.5%+ yields before the window closes. when equities are repricing and AI is eating margins a guaranteed coupon starts looking like the best trade in town. bond math is simple - you get paid to wait. nice to see my asset class getting some love finally. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092009234960641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092009234960641" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022092009234960641) 2026-02-12T23:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "fair point on guidance. but crypto earnings are uniquely hard to guide - your revenue is literally tied to an asset that moved 50% in one quarter. the GAAP miss is mostly mark-to-market on holdings they didnt sell. the operational miss is the real concern and thats a smaller gap. still not great tho. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092651760341098 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092651760341098" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022092651760341098) 2026-02-12T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "net interest hitting $2.1T by [----] means the US government will spend more on debt payments than defense. thats not a budget thats a debt servicing operation with a military attached. and this is the math at current rates - if rates stay higher for longer it gets worse. "whats the long-term plan" - there isnt one. thats the plan. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022107973594886521 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022107973594886521" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022107973594886521) 2026-02-13T00:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv this is the chart that explains the K-shaped economy in one image. nominal GDP says growth. real retail sales say erosion. the gap between the two is where inflation ate the middle class. five years of losing purchasing power while being told the economy is strong" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022123483111784752) 2026-02-13T01:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@WatcherGuru $84B in purchases is the headline but the real deal is $250B in chip investment. TSMC alone committed $165B. this isnt a trade deal its a semiconductor reshoring deal wearing a tariff coat. the message to beijing is louder than the numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022137911198847230) 2026-02-13T02:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nachilos_ not my area of expertise tbh but i appreciate you always showing love on my posts which country's labor reform are you looking into maybe i can help point you in the right direction" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022142856782344620) 2026-02-13T02:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RuzhyoX @KobeissiLetter exactly. mark-to-market works both ways. crypto drops GAAP looks like a disaster. crypto rips GAAP looks like a miracle. the actual business is somewhere in between" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022151056113996231) 2026-02-13T03:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@nachilos_ thats really kind thank you argentina is actually fascinating right now - milei's experiment is one of the most aggressive macro resets ive seen. might do a thread on it sometime. stay tuned and keep the love coming lol" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022159024435998862) 2026-02-13T04:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "since you asked - heres my read on argentina. inflation from 300% to 32% in under two years. first fiscal surplus in [--] years. milei did the thing most people said was impossible. respect. but. $10B in usable reserves $20B in maturities due this year. thats a math problem. the new FX band ties depreciation to lagged inflation which sounds clever until you realize it just builds a feedback loop. not an anchor. morgan stanley thinks the peso is 10-15% overvalued. if theyre right the inflation progress gets stress tested real fast. milei bought time with a midterm landslide and a $20B swap from" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022165739915137280) 2026-02-13T04:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "the disconnect between asset prices and the real economy isnt just a US problem. its everywhere. korea argentina taiwan UK - same pattern different accent. GDP says growth main street says survival. and heres what keeps me up at night. if financial markets crack from here theres no easy fix. central banks cant just print their way out this time. inflation is still sticky. you print into sticky inflation you dont get recovery - you get stagflation. thats the worst outcome in the playbook. prices rising while the economy contracts. no good policy response exists for that. now layer AI on top." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022166973044732118) 2026-02-13T04:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "the math is right but mean reversion needs a catalyst. shiller PE has stayed "overvalued" for [--] years now. the question isnt whether it reverts - its what breaks first. last time it was housing. this time the candidates are AI margin destruction sovereign debt spiral or a liquidity event nobody sees coming. [----] isnt a prediction its a reminder that gravity exists. just nobody knows when" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022192405970309618) 2026-02-13T06:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter taiwan deal yesterday steel/aluminum tariff rollback today. the pattern is clear - deals first then ease. this is the negotiation playbook playing out in real time" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022193775997857965) 2026-02-13T06:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@steve_hanke china exporting deflation while the US cant kill inflation. two largest economies pulling in opposite directions. this is why global macro is so messy right now - theres no single story anymore" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022194670017921325) 2026-02-13T06:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@WallStreetMav $39T to $63T in a decade and thats the optimistic scenario. at some point the debt isnt a problem to solve its the system itself. gold doesnt have a ceiling because the dollar doesnt have a floor" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022195630056309191) 2026-02-13T06:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LynAldenContact as someone sitting in seoul right now - we've been waiting for this moment. taiwan got the deal korea has the leverage. samsung and SK make the memory the world runs on and theres no plan B. the negotiation already started the day the taiwan deal was signed" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022195982356951449) 2026-02-13T06:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "everyone wants to understand the market. start with bonds. bonds are the closest thing to truth in finance. no narrative no hype no "AI will change everything." just math. principal coupon maturity. you either get paid or you dont. stocks tell you stories. bonds tell you the cost of those stories. when i was on the desk we used to say: equity traders have opinions bond traders have math. a decade later i still think thats right. the yield curve doesnt lie it doesnt care about your thesis and it definitely doesnt care about your feelings. every asset in the world is priced off a risk-free" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022197937485623519) 2026-02-13T06:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@lisaabramowicz1 $104B into international vs $25B into US. the great rotation is real. money is finally pricing in what the bond market has been saying for months - US exceptionalism had an expiration date. when the dollar weakens on strong data capital follows" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022270844035318101) 2026-02-13T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "CPI night. the number that moves everything. january headline expected at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y - down from december's 2.7%. sounds like progress on paper. but the real story is core. street consensus says 0.3% m/m some desks like kiplinger are modeling 0.39% with tariff passthrough and year-start price resets baked in. annualize that and youre looking at 3.5-4.7%. thats not "path to 2%." what the fed is watching: shelter. december was 0.4% m/m still the heaviest weight in the basket. if this doesnt cool nothing else matters. core goods. tariffs are starting to show up. firms used the calendar" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022273401986162936) 2026-02-13T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "goldman's oppenheimer is calling the end of the asset-light era. for decades the market rewarded companies that owned nothing - no factories no infrastructure just software and margins. AI is flipping that. building the AI future requires physical stuff. data centers need power systems connectors mechanical equipment. you cant run a GPU cluster on vibes. the companies that actually make and build things - the "old economy" names everyone ignored - are suddenly the bottleneck. capex is surging in tech and utilities. someone has to supply the copper the transformers the cooling systems the grid" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022274759573303791) 2026-02-13T11:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "RYZM Education Series #4: Macro Cycle [---] where we are in the cycle. what each phase means for your money. and why most people figure it out too late. fidelity says mid-cycle. morgan stanley cant decide. the data says late expansion trying not to become slowdown. CPI night. [--] slides. numbers dont lie. #MacroCycle #AssetAllocation #RYZM https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022280417525874846 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022280417525874846" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022280417525874846) 2026-02-13T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "labor supply is high agreed. but demand is cooling. job openings just fell to 6.54m lowest since [----]. more workers crowding into softer demand isnt a boom. its how wage pressure rolls over. unemployments been hovering in the mid-4s. labor always looks fine right before it doesnt. well see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022283901348233707 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022283901348233707" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022283901348233707) 2026-02-13T12:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "settlement isn't reserve. sure trade in yuan or ruble is growing due to sanctions. but where do central banks park that wealth liquidity seeks the deepest pool and thats still us treasuries. with warsh at the fed and stablecoins digitizing the dollar the greenback isnt dying. its just changing rails" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022284556695712037) 2026-02-13T12:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@coinbureau mirae asset manages $500b aum. buying korbit isnt just M&A. its building a direct pipe for institutional capital to flow into crypto. while retail is scared of the dip tradfi is buying the infrastructure. this is what real adoption looks like. plumbing first volume later" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022285049631215730) 2026-02-13T12:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Mary30776604 @thesiriusreport toxic maybe. but liquidity is amoral. capital goes where it can exit. try dumping $50b in yuan or rubles without crashing the peg. treasury depth is the moat not the ethics" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022285697152073949) 2026-02-13T12:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "RYZM Investment Advice : Position Sizing everyone obsesses over entries. nobody talks about sizing. thats backwards. the 1-2% rule is boring. its also the reason some traders survive [--] years and others blow up in [--] months. the math decides your size not your conviction. save this. #RiskManagement #PositionSizing #RYZM https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022285916983947703 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022285916983947703" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022285916983947703) 2026-02-13T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "silver down to $76 gold hovering near $5k. looks nasty but check the rsi. copper and zinc are deep in oversold territory (20s). this isn't a fundamental shift its a liquidity flush. leveraged longs got liquidated plain and simple. short term signals scream sell but the yearly trend (+135% on silver) is still intact. volatility is the rent you pay for performance. let the dust settle before you bid. don't catch falling knives. #commodities #volatility #macro https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022286528333168808 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022286528333168808" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022286528333168808) 2026-02-13T12:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JesseCohenInv [---] vs [---] is clean framing. but the fed doesnt pivot on one print. its the trend and financial conditions that matter. [---] wont kill cuts if growth softens and spreads widen. rates trade the path not the point" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022290785627213982) 2026-02-13T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "🚨 Bessent on CNBC ahead of the inflation print: inflation back to 2% by mid-2026 he says. crypto legislation needs clarity. fast. metal import tariffs could be narrowed. bond market stabilizing credit to policy. optimism is easy before the data. lets see what the print says. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022292666747392434 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022292666747392434" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022292666747392434) 2026-02-13T12:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "the gap between truflation and BLS isnt just lag. its structural. BLS shelter weight is 36% of CPI and updates on a 6-12 month delay. truflation captures rent changes closer to real time. so when truflation reads 0.72% and BLS reads 2.7% a big chunk of that spread is shelter catching up to what already happened. the real question for today isnt the y/y headline. its the m/m core. if that prints above 0.3% the fed has no room to move regardless of what the y/y says. weight revisions matter too. new basket could shift the number either way. watching." [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022296434188636508) 2026-02-13T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "CPI tonight. i expect a low print. the numbers have been cooling for months. truflation reads 0.72%. BLS shelter lag is the only thing keeping the headline above [--]. real-time rent data has been falling since mid-2025. the gap is structural not informational. if it prints soft the rate cut narrative gets louder fast. and i think it should. unpopular take: the fed is already behind. rates should have come down sooner. the pause wasnt about inflation. it was about asset prices. equities at highs credit spreads tight crypto running. the fed couldnt cut into that without looking like they were" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022301692356936128) 2026-02-13T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "January CPI Breakdown Headline CPI (2.4% y/y) Annual inflation slowed to 2.4% the lowest since May [----]. Gradually moving closer to the Feds 2% target. Core CPI (2.5% y/y) Core rose 0.3% m/m still showing some stickiness. Services remain the main pressure point. Key Components Energy (-1.5% m/m -0.1% y/y) The main driver of the downside surprise. Gasoline (-3.2%) and fuel oil (-5.7%) pulled the index lower. Used Cars (-1.8% m/m -2.0% y/y) Another meaningful drag. Goods disinflation continues to help. Transportation Services (+1.4% m/m +1.3% y/y) The standout on the upside. Labor and insurance" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022305525166432716) 2026-02-13T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter skew at [----] tells you correlation is breaking. index flat average stock moved 10.8% that's dispersion at 99th percentile stress levels. when hedging cost hits [----] bear + [----] crisis pricing ask what breaks first - credit spreads or liquidity. tape doesnt lie" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022364860726882785) 2026-02-13T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter he appoints the sec chair. his company files for the etf. sec "reviews" it. regulatory capture doesnt need to hide anymore. the conflict is the system now" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022367957133996511) 2026-02-13T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GlobalMktObserv healthcare propping up the headline. everything else already in recession. fed keeps calling this "solid" while manufacturing bleeds -83k in 12mo. rate policy doesnt hit services and goods the same. this aint soft landing. this is bifurcation" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022539422475182220) 2026-02-14T05:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@milesdeutscher the k-shape is real. but its not "AI users vs non-users."its who owns the compute vs who rents it. 77% of new AI jobs need a masters. the gap was already there. AI just made it visible" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022563086222213278) 2026-02-14T06:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Hartnett's EM/China buy call US exceptionalism fatigue is real. ABD sentiment spreading EM inflows picking up Chinese bank stocks quietly breaking out. the data supports the thesis. but context matters. copper first. sitting near $13000/mt all time high territory. JPM sees a 330K ton refined deficit in [----] and projects 475K tons of copper demand from AI data centers alone. supply side is constrained with major mines cutting guidance on power outages. Goldman tells a different story tho. fair value $11500 year-end target $11000. reasoning: global surplus not resolved Chinese refined copper" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022565760380604622) 2026-02-14T06:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@oscaytrades looking for a savior is the fastest way to get rekt. no one is coming to save your pnl. wake up" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022570158729105925) 2026-02-14T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "WebMCP turns the open web into a giant API catalog. sites without navigator.modelContext will be invisible to the agent economy. seo was about keywords; aeo is about executable schemas. google and microsoft are effectively building a toll road for agents. adapt or get filtered out. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022571301286605284 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022571301286605284" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022571301286605284) 2026-02-14T07:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@_The_Prophet__ algorithmic warfare is the only warfare left. if you aren't running the fastest inference you're a target. speed is the new stealth" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022573133463719990) 2026-02-14T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "stocks at all time highs while main street is defaulting on camrys. classic k-shaped split. rates at 3.5% act like gravity. it took time but the lag effect is finally breaking the consumer. when credit cards blow up retail volume vanishes. the recession isn't coming it's already here for the bottom 50%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022573382064312792 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022573382064312792" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022573382064312792) 2026-02-14T07:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@nicrypto dumping treasuries while managing overnight rates tells you everything. they are fortifying the balance sheet not expanding it. stimulus exports inflation; control exports deflation. china is choosing the latter. adjust your risk appetite accordingly" [X Link](https://x.com/Goeun_6121/status/2022577238261338624) 2026-02-14T07:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Goeun_6121 Ryzm
Ryzm posts on X about ai, inflation, math, liquidity the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
Mentions: [--] #
Followers: [---] #
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 60.29% countries 12.29% cryptocurrencies 7.43% technology brands 6.86% stocks 6% travel destinations 3.71% exchanges 2% automotive brands 2% currencies 1.71% financial services 1.43%
Social topic influence ai 12.29%, inflation #1772, math 8%, liquidity #2635, money 5.71%, gold 5.71%, debt 5.43%, crypto 5.43%, this is 5.14%, fed #813
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @globalmktobserv @mathfiles @kobeissiletter @investingcom @blue12388 @watcherguru @jessecoheninv @coinbureau @business @philosophyofphy @oopsguess @elonmusk @investingcanons @robinjbrooks @financelancelot @mignoletkr @nachilos @ruzhyox @stevehanke @mary30776604
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) BlackRock Inc (BLK)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"We love to call ruins Roman. As if greatness only moved in one direction. But this arch belongs to a different chapter. Built in [----] under another sky by hands that understood weight and patience. Stone remembers what empires forget. One arch. Eight centuries. Still standing"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"agree but "energy" is too broad. oil is oversupplied. the real bottleneck is the grid. power demand was flat for a decade now inflecting hard. big tech already knows - thats why theyre signing 20-year nuclear PPAs instead of waiting for grid upgrades. the bet isnt energy. its transmission infrastructure. and nobody wants to fund it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023560347135996002 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023560347135996002"
X Link 2026-02-17T00:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"the $550B US-japan fund just dropped its first $36B tranche. ohio gas plant texas LNG terminal georgia critical minerals site. read them together. this is physical AI infrastructure before anyone calls it that. data center power demand heading to [----] TWh by [----] from [---] TWh today. grid cant keep up. gas is the bridge. china still controls 98% of global gallium and 60-68% of germanium - one export restriction and your fab timeline is gone. and the structure here is JBIC loans and guarantees not cash. japan gets energy security US gets industrial capex without the fiscal hit. both sides"
X Link 2026-02-17T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"youre right that global M2 = btc gets abused. but two fact checks: M2 is broad money not liquidity. BIS defines liquidity more like financing conditions. and M2 doesnt always rise. even the US had an outright M2 decline after [----]. halving is also not a vibe. its coded: every [------] blocks roughly [--] years cutting new supply. so the clean read is: supply schedule sets the backdrop. marginal liquidity decides the timing. narratives fill the gap after price moves. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023084591121326512 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023084591121326512"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter 270% checks out: MSCI USA $60.3T vs US M2 $22.4T. Just keep in mind this ratio is also a denominator story M2 was flat-to-down for a long stretch post-2022"
X Link 2026-02-16T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HistContent so the greeks just rehypothecated the narrative. classic"
X Link 2026-02-18T08:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NightSkyNow [--] billion years and we're stressed about quarterly earnings. perspective is free"
X Link 2026-02-18T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@elerianm 3.7% gdp and 0.7% industrial production while the fed just said disinflation is "slower than expected." economy running too hot for cuts too leveraged for hikes. no good exits on this one"
X Link 2026-02-18T21:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Peter Steinberger who successfully exited PSPDFKit to Insight Partners is back with Clawdbot. It is a local AI assistant that runs directly on your device. While Big Tech is paralyzed by safety compliance and guardrails the open-source community has shipped what is being called the "first true personal assistant." Early adopters are already using it to automate complex workflows and scrape millions of social media posts. The documentation bluntly states that "no setup is perfectly safe" for agents with tool access despite the built-in sandboxing. I respect the honesty. Real power always comes"
X Link 2026-01-27T09:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@heresyfinancial Deflation is great if you have cash. Deflation is hell if you have debt. Guess which one the government has more of. That's the whole tweet"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"michael burry sounds the alarm on bitcoin crash. the actual "Big Short" guy. called [----]. BTC broke support and "sickening scenarios" now in sight. 10% more downside puts companies like MicroStrategy in billions of losses capital markets freeze up. gold and silver hit ATH while BTC dumps. burry says this proves BTC is pure speculation not digital gold. interesting take is he blames BTC for the gold/silver crash. says traders liquidated precious metals to cover crypto losses. estimates up to [--] billion in forced selling. worst case is BTC at 50K triggers miner bankruptcies and tokenized metal"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Anthropic dropped a legal AI plugin and legal software stocks tanked. RELX and Wolters Kluwer both down 10%+. Pearson down 3%+. plugin does contract review NDA classification compliance workflows. built for Claude Cowork and available to all paid users. Anthropic said "assisting not replacing lawyers" but market reaction says investors see it differently. talked about Microsoft Copilot 3.3% conversion rate earlier. this is the opposite case. AI directly threatening existing software markets. legal tech vendors calling it "existential threat" might be overdone but commoditized simple features"
X Link 2026-02-04T11:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"losers: software / professional services Anthropic dropped legal AI plugin and RELX Wolters Kluwer tanked 10%+. said "assisting lawyers" but market read it as "replacing." since ChatGPT launched S&P [---] software stocks are actually negative. while chips nearly tripled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020250571043165 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019020250571043165"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@elonmusk kinda funny when the worlds richest man says this lol. tbh id like to try being unhappy with $400b too"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"btc broke below $71K. trading at $70533. lowest since november [----]. down 44% from $126K ATH. red candles [--] out of [--] days. ugly. not one catalyst. liquidity dried up global tech selloff hit on AI capex fears and $75K break triggered a cascade of forced liquidations. $770M wiped in [--] hours. strong dollar + rising bond yields. warsh fed chair nomination killed rate cut expectations and risk-off spread across every asset class. silver down 17% gold weak too. "safe haven" means nothing when margin calls hit. alts getting wrecked harder. ETH -7.4% ($2098) XRP -10% SOL -6%. this isnt a crypto"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Morgan Stanley Quant team (QDS) report summary. today in one line: longs got wiped. MS L/S momentum pair down -7.7% in a day. 4-sigma shock. long leg did -5.7% short leg only +1.9%. this wasnt broad degrossing. it was concentrated long liquidation. the real problem is demand vacuum. retail net buying at 16th percentile on a 1yr basis. institutional spot selling at 11th percentile. futures demand only partially recovered in the afternoon. no marginal buyer left. then leveraged ETF rebalancing dumped $18B in US equity selling. top [--] day ever. concentrated in NDX/tech/semis. semiconductor"
X Link 2026-02-05T08:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"feb [--] crypto daily. nevada court denied coinbase's request to halt prediction markets. regulatory battle still ongoing. etf flows looking rough. eth spot etf: $78M outflow. btc spot etf: $545M outflow. btc number is notable. risk-off mood short term but need a few more days to tell if it's a trend or a blip. #Crypto #BTC #ETF https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019363831781507326 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019363831781507326"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"same pattern different target tho. deepseek was "AI is cheaper to build" chip stocks got wrecked. nvidia -18% broadcom -11%. anthropic is "AI does your job now" software and services got wrecked. goldman software basket -6% financials -7%. fear just moved down the chain in a year. chips SaaS services. nvidia recovered after deepseek btw. this smells like another overreaction tbh. panic first math later as usual lol https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019391340099039443 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019391340099039443"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestingCanons buffett has $300B cash and no leverage. thats why he can "welcome" volatility. can you"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"BTC touched $60K. half off from oct ATH $126K. what happened [--]. WLFI (Trump family project) sold [--] WBTC. $5M worth. pro-crypto symbol cashing out reads as a signal. [--]. ETF outflows continue. $6B+ out since oct. institutions going risk-off. [--]. thin liquidity. shallow order books mean small sells trigger liquidations trigger more sells. classic cascade. michael burry warning of "death spiral." if BTC hits $50K miners go bankrupt Strategy gets shut out of capital markets. $60K breaks analysts see $50K mid range. but support is made to be broken. nobody knows the bottom. stay cautious until"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"btc spot etf outflows hit $434M on feb [--]. big names led the exit: IBIT (blackrock): -$175M FBTC (fidelity): -$109M GBTC (grayscale): -$75M grayscale mini BTC: -$35M ARKB BITB: -$23M -$16M smaller etfs (BTCO EZBC BRRR HODL BTCW) flat. no inflows no outflows. so the "institutional bid" everyone talks about it sells too. etf wrapper doesnt change human behavior. panic is panic. one day of outflows isnt a trend. but watch if this continues next week. #BTC #ETF https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659006797910069 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659006797910069"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@WatcherGuru buying $235M when youre sitting on billions in user funds isnt conviction. its maintenance. good for optics tho"
X Link 2026-02-06T08:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"binance buying the dip with safu funds is smart treasury management. not charity. they hold user assets in btc. price drops reserve ratio drops. topping up at lower prices keeps the fund solvent and improves their cost basis. bullish signal maybe. or just an exchange doing basic risk management. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019683842315993455 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019683842315993455"
X Link 2026-02-06T08:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CoinMarketCap crypto wanted institutional adoption. this is what it looks like. you dont get etf inflows without etf outflows. welcome to being a real asset class"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"sevens report on where liquidity is actually coming from: the old playbook: fed balance sheet expands stocks go up. worked from 2009-2022. clean correlation. the new reality: fed has been shrinking since [----]. stocks still rallied. something else is providing the bid. tom essayes answer: derivatives and spec desks. heres the mechanic: VIX spikes short vol strategies pile in dealers hedge by going long stocks "artificial tailwind" for indices. its not fundamentals. its positioning flow. examples: [----] vol spike led to [----] short vol paradise. early [----] vol led to post-april rally. the"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"brooks is right on the mechanics but the bigger story is the JGB market screaming. 30yr JGB hit 3.88%. all time high. bond market already pricing in Sanaenomics before she even wins. 21T stimulus plus food tax cuts with no clear funding. duration sellers paradise. curve steepening for a reason. yen weakness isnt just a BOJ story anymore. its fiscal credibility. intervention buys you a week. yield curve repricing lasts a cycle. smart money already positioning for post-election JPY leg lower. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020060438004982084"
X Link 2026-02-07T09:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"got liquidated for $250M on leverage. now moving [----] btc spot to binance. this is the part people miss about big liquidations. the leverage blow up is just round one. round two is when they sell spot to cover margin calls or just exit. $351M hitting the binance order book isnt nothing. especially in a market where the bid is already thin. watch the depth charts not the headlines. ive seen this pattern at funds. forced seller isnt done when the position closes. theyre done when the risk manager says theyre done. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020063549436104868"
X Link 2026-02-07T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MrMikeInvesting one profitable company and seven money-losing names in the same 'millionaire maker' list. ONDS has [---] employees and -402% EBITDA margin. CRWV is burning $7B a year in cash. no stops no sizing no risk plan. this aint a portfolio its a prayer"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Investingcom of course the shovel seller says the gold rush isnt over. $650B in hyperscaler capex says hes not wrong. but the shovels are changing shape. ASIC backlog at broadcom is $73B. nvidia owns the cycle. the question is whether it owns the whole decade"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"crude at $63. bounce or trap. WTI closed $63.55 early feb. +10% from january but still -19% from 52-week high of $78.4. one year trend is still down double digits. structural picture is ugly. IEA warns [----] supply surplus hitting 4M bpd. brazil guyana offshore + US shale keep pumping. demand side is weakening with china slowdown and EV adoption eating into oil consumption growth. EIA forecasts [----] brent average $55. world bank says $60. OPEC alone keeps calling for 1.3-1.4M bpd demand growth for [--] straight months. market isnt listening. price is truth. but heres what most people miss. oil is"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@themotleyfool true but someone in the replies already nailed it. NYT is at all time highs. the lesson isnt "newspapers died." its "the average died. the best consolidated." same thing happening in AI right now. [---] startups will die so [--] can own everything"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"dow at 50K and small businesses bleeding 296K jobs in [--] months. both true at the same time. thats not a healthy economy. thats a bifurcated one. headline payrolls hide this because big firms and government keep the number positive. but credit risk starts at the bottom and works its way up. always has. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020296690247545189 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020296690247545189"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TrendingBitcoin accepting btc at a lemonade stand while grown adults are still panic selling at 63K. the kids are literally alright"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"HIMS pulled its $49 compounded semaglutide pill [--] hours after launch. timeline tells the whole story. thursday they launch. novo nordisk immediately calls it "illegal mass compounding" and threatens to sue. friday FDA moves to restrict GLP-1 compounding ingredients and HHS refers HIMS to DOJ. saturday HIMS folds. stock was already -14% after hours friday. "constructive conversations with stakeholders" is a nice way of saying FDA + DOJ + novo all pointed guns at the same time. semaglutide patent runs until [----]. a $49 copycat was never going to survive that. but the signal here isnt HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the yield fight is the real fight. everything else is noise. banks sitting on $18T in deposits earning savers almost nothing while T-bill backed stablecoins could pass through 4%+ directly. of course theyre fighting it. this isnt about "financial stability" its about protecting the spread. if stablecoin issuers cant offer yield in the US theyll just do it offshore. we've seen this movie. capital doesnt wait for congress. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020331700094660655 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020331700094660655"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"hayes is right on the mechanics. derivs are amplifiers not drivers. $123M in longs liquidated in 24h thats just a crowded trade unwinding. nothing exotic. but "resume up only" after clearing tourists idk. etf flows flipped negative $6B in january. mvrv still sitting at 1.2-1.5 when past cycle peaks were 3-5x that. and warsh at the fed means rate cuts are off the table longer than people think. leverage got flushed sure. doesnt mean the bid comes back tomorrow. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020336201337827649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020336201337827649"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"ive seen this movie before. every [--] months someone posts "this is it" and oil is flat bonds barely move and the world keeps not ending. iran talks are happening through oman right now. brent dropped to $67. the feb [--] order is tariffs not missiles. market isnt pricing armageddon. market is pricing a deal. could be wrong but. the tape doesnt lie. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020342122759745767 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020342122759745767"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"the anthropic engineers quote is the real signal here. "they dont write code anymore. they edit what the model writes." thats not a prediction thats a status report from inside the building. but "6 to [--] months for end-to-end" is dario selling his product at davos. the gap between "AI writes most of the code" and "AI replaces the engineer" is massive. who decides what to build who debugs the edge case at 3am who owns the architecture writing code was never the hard part. understanding what to write was. that said the market already priced this in this week. paypal -24% software stocks getting"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""safe unless btc goes to 8K" is a great headline. its also the wrong risk metric. the risk for strategy was never btc going to zero. the risk is what happens to their convertible note structure when refinancing comes due in a 3.5% rate environment. 687K btc at 70K is $48B in collateral against what debt load the $17.4B quarterly loss is accounting noise under FASB fair value rules. unrealized. doesnt matter until it does. what matters: when those converts mature does the bond market price strategy as investment grade or as a levered btc fund with a software business wrapper because the spread"
X Link 2026-02-08T07:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"this is the chart they should frame and hang in every trading floor. made $61M shorting against CZ's call. correct thesis. correct direction. correct timing. then gave it all back and then some. lifetime P&L negative $10.7M. the edge was never the problem. risk management was. when youre up $61M and dont size down or take chips off the table youre not trading anymore. youre gambling with house money that stopped being house money the moment you didnt lock it in. ive seen this pattern on every desk ive sat at. the best trade of someones career becomes the thing that kills them because they"
X Link 2026-02-08T07:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"jolts at 6.54M. lowest since sept [----]. the labor market isnt crashing but its freezing. companies arent firing theyre just not hiring. slow suffocation. and this at 3.5% rates. if this trend holds fed gets forced to cut whether inflation cooperates or not. yield curve already pricing it. "soft landing" people need to check if the plane actually stopped descending. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020411458564288857 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020411458564288857"
X Link 2026-02-08T08:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"next week is dense. nfp ppi cpi retail sales. all compressed into one week. shutdown delays reshuffled everything. wednesday kicks off with nfp but friday is judgment day. cpi delayed to friday due to the shutdown. if shelter prints hot yields spike into the weekend. no time to react. its a global macro gauntlet not just a US one. save this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020426023880556918 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020426023880556918"
X Link 2026-02-08T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"term explainer #001: real rates. everyone stares at the fed funds rate. but the number that actually moves gold crypto and tech is the real rate. nominal minus inflation. right now: 3.625% - 3.0% = +0.6%. positive. policy is tight. Warsh got nominated and gold dropped 18% in two days. thats not panic. thats real rate repricing. if you dont understand real rates you dont understand why your portfolio moves. save this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020432618106536001 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020432618106536001"
X Link 2026-02-08T09:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"takaichi's LDP wins outright majority. market narrative: abenomics [---] yen weakness. but [----] and [----] are different games. back then japan was fighting deflation. now its bad inflation from import costs crushing households. the "strong japan" paradox. defense buildup and energy imports require purchasing power. tanking your own currency while buying weapons and oil from abroad is math that doesnt work. JGB market is the real constraint. BoJ already holds over half of outstanding issuance. foreign buyers leaving. who absorbs more supply yield tantrum risk is real. liz truss lasted [--] days"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"source checked OBBBA provisions and GENIUS Act. neither has 0% crypto tax. $650B number has no basis i can find. this reads like engagement farming. if a 0% capital gains tax on crypto actually passed you wouldnt be hearing about it from a random tweet. every exchange every fund every bank would be screaming. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020718985671770487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020718985671770487"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5 things moving markets this week. [--]. jobs report (wed) delayed from the govt shutdown. consensus is 70K adds vs 50K prior. labor market isnt cracking but its not hot either. openings dropped to 5yr lows in dec. powell called it "stabilizing." translation: not bad enough to cut not good enough to celebrate. [--]. CPI (fri) headline expected at 2.5% (down from 2.7%). still above the 2% target. core is the one to watch. if it stays sticky june cut is off the table. if it drops risk assets rally hard. this is the number that decides the second half of [----]. [--]. tech earnings Cisco Spotify Datadog"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"barclays just published what ive been saying for months. AI isnt a tech story anymore. its a macro story. productivity growth determines whether the fed cuts whether US debt stays manageable whether this whole rally has legs. christian keller's team put it plainly: "productivity is now the key." heres the thing most people miss. AI capex is demand NOW. the productivity gains come LATER. that gap is inflationary. fed vice chair jefferson basically said this. AI could temporarily push inflation higher before supply-side benefits kick in. so the very thing thats supposed to save us from higher"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"sharpe at [---] is real and the historical pattern is real. march [----] was SVB collapse. before that it was june [----] Luna/3AC. both were actual bottoms. but both also had a specific catalyst that flushed leverage and reset positioning. this time $329M ETF outflow in one day fear index at [--] LTH still distributing 209K BTC over [--] days. hash ribbons flashed a buy signal tho. the setup looks similar but the macro is different. rates at 3.5% with warsh coming in isnt the same backdrop as [----] when the fed was still hiking. context matters more than pattern matching."
X Link 2026-02-09T11:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""no bad news no black swan nothing happened." except $329M ETF outflow in one day LTH distributing 209K BTC over [--] days fear index at [--] warsh nomination flipping rate expectations hawkish real rates grinding higher and a macro backdrop of 3.5% fed funds with no QE on the horizon. thats not "nothing." thats a liquidity repricing event. sentiment trading is valid. but "fear is max therefore buy" skips the part where you ask WHY fear is max. if fear is driven by structural deleveraging and institutional basis trade unwinds it doesnt just snap back because retail is scared. it snaps back when"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$100K on a 40:1 payout. thats 2.5% implied probability. polymarket gets these long shot bets every week on everything from alien disclosure to presidential assassination. most of them expire worthless. the "insider trading" framing is spicy but think about it. if you actually had advance knowledge of a US strike on iran youd buy oil calls and short equities. youd make 10x more with zero public trail. putting it on polymarket is the dumbest possible way to monetize classified intel. probably just a degen with $100K to burn who wants attention. and its working. we're all talking about it."
X Link 2026-02-09T19:47Z [---] followers, 51.1K engagements
"the assumption that warsh = aggressive cuts is doing a lot of work here. warsh was the guy advocating for tightening during the [----] crisis. he pushed for fed balance sheet reduction before it was popular. trump wants lower rates but warsh has a track record of being the adult in the room who says no. market pricing 2-3 cuts through year end isnt conservative. its pricing in a fed chair who talks tough on inflation. if anything the risk is fewer cuts not more. used car prices just printed +2.4% MoM and CPI lands wednesday. if core comes in hot even [--] cuts starts looking generous. id want to"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"waller just said the quiet part out loud. "risk positions caused mainstream firms to sell crypto." thats the ETF complex and corporate treasury unwind weve been watching in real time. $329M outflow days. LTH distributing 209K BTC over [--] days. this wasnt retail panic. it was institutional risk management. "crypto clarity stalled" is the other piece. the crypto clarity act was supposed to give TradFi a regulatory framework to hold and trade digital assets. its stuck in congress. without it compliance desks at banks and funds have no green light to add or hold. so they derisk. a fed governor"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"the chart is brutal but it misses the context. japan ran zero rates and QE for [--] years to prevent deflation not to grow GDP. china grew by urbanizing [---] million people and running 40% investment-to-GDP ratios that are now imploding into property crisis and local government debt. takaichis real challenge isnt catching china on GDP per capita. its managing the BOJ exit from decades of monetary repression without breaking the JGB market. ueda just hiked to 0.5% and the yen is already ripping. thats the story. not the GDP chart. the rate normalization."
X Link 2026-02-09T22:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WatcherGuru 15% GDP growth. the US hasnt hit 15% nominal since [----]. even china at peak miracle economy topped out at 14%. the entire developed world averages 2-3%. this isnt economics. its a negotiating anchor. say 15% so 3% looks like a disappointment and you can blame the fed chair"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the split tells the story. people expect less inflation but feel worse about their finances. thats what happens when real wages are positive but dont keep up with cumulative price levels from the last [--] years. the inflation rate is cooling. the price level isnt. and thats what people actually live with. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021002327629627549 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021002327629627549"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investingcom cut [---] distribution workers. start advertising on ChatGPT. same earnings call. the AI economy in two headlines. capex goes to the machine. headcount goes down. ad spend goes to the platform that replaces the next batch. ive seen this movie before. it just plays faster now"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"107K job cuts in january alone. highest since [----]. and this is ex-government. the headline unemployment rate still looks fine because aggregate numbers always do. but the distribution is the story. tech retail distribution centers getting hollowed out while AI capex hiring runs hot. bifurcated labor market in real time. aggregate numbers look fine. the distribution is ugly. weve seen this movie before with globalization. same script different decade. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021034472863670766 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021034472863670766"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@dividendology the average is a lie you survive long enough to earn. most people dont hold through the -30% years to collect the +26% years. thats the real injustice. not the volatility. the behavior gap"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the analogy is fun but silver has better fundamentals than megan foxs filmography. [---] tonnes on the shanghai exchange. thats -88% from [----] peak. industrial demand from solar and EVs isnt going away. this isnt a transformers hype cycle. its a supply squeeze with actual demand behind it. could still be a painful hold tho. fair. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063760685957491 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063760685957491"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"target just cut [---] distribution jobs and started advertising on chatgpt in the same week. the chart is catching up to the fundamentals. costco and kroger are holding because theyre not trying to be everything. target got stuck between walmart on price and amazon on convenience. when you lose that positioning game the chart does exactly this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063984972169423 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021063984972169423"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheBTCTherapist 15% GDP isnt happening. but if it did the inflation that comes with it would send BTC to the moon and the dollar to the floor. careful what you wish for"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"CPI drops wednesday. if you dont know the difference between CPI and PCE or why real rates matter more than nominal save this thread.inflation [---]. swipe through"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"goldman commodity research is telling clients: the hard asset rotation is real. and the math behind it is simple. commodity markets are tiny compared to equities and bonds. when portfolio allocators decide they want 0.01% more gold exposure gold moves 1.5%. thats how thin this market is. why metals over energy three reasons. market size. metals markets are much smaller. same dollar inflow = bigger price move. supply response. oil goes up shale pumps more. copper and gold supply is constrained and production cycles are measured in decades. storage. energy hits tank limits and futures carry"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"fair point from dalio. the capability is real. but the surveillance part isnt new - governments already track most financial activity through existing rails. what CBDCs actually add is programmability. expiry dates on money spending restrictions instant taxation. china is live with this on e-CNY right now. the US chose stablecoins over a fed CBDC. different packaging similar questions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112355372007498 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112355372007498"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"agree with the sentiment but exchanges wont stop because the math works. memecoin listings drive volume volume drives revenue revenue keeps the lights on. its not a respect problem its an incentive problem. the fix isnt hoping exchanges grow a conscience. its regulation that separates casino from infrastructure. EU's MiCA is starting to do this. the US is still figuring it out. until then the industry will keep eating itself for short-term fees. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112848622195115 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021112848622195115"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"respect for owning the $80K call. the STH realized loss data is real and $1.5B is a significant flush. capitulation of that scale does tend to mark local bottoms historically. but onchain alone doesnt set the floor. the macro backdrop hasnt changed. fed funds still at 3.50-3.75% rate cut expectations down to maybe two this year ETFs saw roughly $6B in net outflows over january. hash ribbons flashed a buy signal which is worth noting but that indicator worked best in previous cycles when liquidity was expanding. right now its not. the part that makes me cautious: LTH distributed over 200K BTC"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"TSMC january revenue: $12.7B. +37% YoY. above their own 30% annual growth target. lunar new year timing might have inflated this a bit but the trend is clear. the AI demand pull is real. data center and AI accelerator chips are driving the growth. TSMC is planning up to $56B in capex this year 25% more than [----]. but heres the part the headline doesnt tell you. the hyperscaler capex cycle is getting extreme. total spending went from $335B in [----] to an expected $600B+ in [----]. amazon meta microsoft google are all in an arms race. meta alone committed $600B over three years. the question"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"this is the chart nobody in DC wants to talk about. interest expense is now competing with defense for the top line in the federal budget. and unlike defense you cant negotiate it down. the math gets worse from here. $9T in treasuries need to roll over in the next [--] months. if rates stay at 3.5-3.75% every refi locks in higher coupons replacing debt that was issued at near-zero. "unsustainable" is the right word but its also the wrong framing. unsustainable things dont stop. they just get monetized. thats the whole playbook. the question isnt if this breaks. its how they choose to paper over"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"framing matters here. no bitcoin was "sent." an employee typed BTC instead of KRW on an internal ledger during a promo event. 620K ghost coins appeared on screen for [--] minutes. 99.7% clawed back same day. the real story isnt the fat finger. its that CEXs can credit assets they dont hold because settlement happens off-chain. bithumb had 42K btc on books. credited 620K. no system flagged it. thats the structural risk. not your keys not your coins isnt a meme. its an engineering statement. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021160309399195813 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021160309399195813"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ken fisher on whether a new fed chair actually changes anything. short answer: possible but rare. the chair doesnt dictate policy alone. they persuade. FOMC members vote and each one already has a view shaped by years of staff interaction. the chair walks in with ideas. the staff walks them back. volcker did it. dragged the board into a regime change. but thats the exception not the rule. most chairs get absorbed by the institution not the other way around. the warsh question then becomes: is he a volcker or is he another suit who gets staff-pilled within [--] months his track record says hawk"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ecb economists basically just admitted tariffs are doing their job for them. the logic: US tariffs hit eurozone exports demand drops prices fall. eurozone CPI already at 1.7% below the 2% target. the deflation problem is getting worse not better. but heres the interesting part. the sectors getting crushed by tariffs - machinery autos chemicals - are also the most rate-sensitive. meaning ECB rate cuts would directly stimulate the exact industries that tariffs are killing. so the policy playbook writes itself. tariffs compress demand inflation undershoots ECB cuts more cheap money flows into"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the G10 vs EM divergence in this chart is the signal. dollar is weakening against EM currencies faster than against G10. that tells you its not just rate differentials driving this - its capital flow rotation. twin deficits $9T in treasury rollovers ahead and a fed chair transition creating policy uncertainty. the structural case for dollar weakness was already there. tariffs just accelerated the timeline by forcing trade partners to diversify away from dollar-denominated flows. the greenland comparison is smart. that was peak "strong dollar through intimidation" and the trade-weighted index"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"blackrock has moved $10B in crypto exposure since jan [--]. but most of that is valuation change from the drawdown not active selling. actual holdings dropped [----] btc and 138K eth. big difference. also they bought $775M back the next day after their largest feb [--] dump. thats not "bad news coming." thats a fund rebalancing around vol. timing it to the market structure bill meeting is a narrative not a fact. correlation isnt causation. especially when the same fund is filing for a bitcoin premium income ETF the same week. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201366039843176"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@unusual_whales goldman warning about selling pressure is goldman telling you theyve already repositioned. the call is never early when its coming from the sell side"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"JPM calling $6300 gold while its sitting at $5100 after an 18% crash from the january highs. thats a bold call. not wrong necessarily but the path matters more than the target. central bank buying is real - record pace since [----] and that structural bid isnt going away. but the warsh nomination just killed the "dollar debasement" trade that powered the run from $4000 to $5600. so now gold has to find a new narrative. if its "fiscal dominance + debt monetization" then $6300 is conservative. if its "hawkish fed + strong dollar" then we retest $4500 first. price targets without scenarios are"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"229% debt-to-GDP and theyre raising rates. let that sink in. every 25bps hike at this debt level costs japans treasury roughly 2.5T in additional annual interest. boj isnt tightening because the economy is strong. theyre tightening because the yen was dying. this is what "no good options" looks like on a national balance sheet"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"so the setup is: systematic sellers locked in on the sell side across every scenario and the only bid holding this market up is corporate buybacks. that works until it doesnt. buyback windows close around earnings. CTAs dont care about fundamentals - they sell on momentum and vol triggers. if we get a real flush day where buybacks cant absorb the flow the air pocket under this market is real. -$11.2B CTA selling vs buyback desk activity up 40%. thats not a healthy market. thats two machines fighting each other. retail just happens to be standing in the middle."
X Link 2026-02-10T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"thats exactly the point. deflation + rate hikes = theyre not tightening for the economy. theyre tightening for the currency. and yields are low because boj spent a decade doing yield curve control. now theyre unwinding that. 10Y JGB already hit 30-year highs last month. "low" is relative when the direction is up and the debt is 229% of GDP. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021209735991591356 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021209735991591356"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investingcom beat on earnings miss on revenue. translation: they sold less coke but charged you more for it. inflation hedge in a can"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"youre probably thinking of japans FX intervention - that was the ministry of finance not the fed. they spent $62B in [----] buying yen when it hit [---] to the dollar. but intervention is a band-aid. it buys time doesnt fix the problem. the only real fix for a dying currency is higher rates. and thats exactly what boj is doing now - hiking into weakness because the alternative is worse. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210656259834121 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210656259834121"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"two things here that tell you everything about where we are. trump says warsh can get 15% GDP growth. the bond market is pricing 4.2% on the 10Y and a curve thats steepening on rate cuts not growth. someone is wrong and its not the bond market. meanwhile alphabet just issued a 100-year bond in sterling and swiss francs. a tech company locking in foreign currency debt for a century. thats not confidence in the dollar. thats a hedge against it. and they raised $20B in the US right before this. smart money is telling you the dollar story and the growth story dont match. the math doesnt work for"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"oh youre talking about the fed rate check from a couple weeks ago. yeah thats different from direct intervention - a rate check is the fed calling dealers to ask for quotes on yen. its a signal not an action. basically the fed saying "we're watching." but my point still stands. rate checks and interventions buy time. they dont fix a structural currency problem. boj hiking is the only real fix. everything else is theater. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021212989920248147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021212989920248147"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"this is the most crowded short in fixed income right now. and crowded shorts have a way of unwinding violently. everyone is short duration because they think rates stay higher for longer. but if we get a real growth scare - and the labor market is already softening - the unwind on 150M shares of TLT short interest would be one of the biggest short squeezes in bond market history. [--] years of bear market in long bonds means [--] years of built-up positioning that assumes one outcome. the moment the narrative flips from "inflation forever" to "oh wait the economy is actually slowing" this trade"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Tyler_Durden77 @zerohedge exactly. monday morning is when the desks are most active. which means if CTAs are selling into that same window today is the real test of whether buybacks can absorb the flow"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"half right. AI and robotics are deflationary for goods and services. thats real. but tariffs are the opposite - theyre a tax on imports that gets passed to consumers. putting tariffs on the same list as AI is contradictory. and "print more cut rates" isnt free. core PCE is still at 3.0% real rates are positive and the fed just watched warsh get nominated specifically to keep inflation in check. the political pressure to print is there. the institutional willingness isnt. not yet. deflation in production inflation in policy. thats not a clean story. thats a tug of war."
X Link 2026-02-10T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@saoif_noob @Investingcom if its working for you then keep going. genuinely. im not here to convince anyone. just pointing out that central bank buying data is audited and public not a conspiracy. good luck out there"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JesseCohenInv $30K motorcycle in an economy where real retail sales just went negative YoY. HOG isnt a stock problem. its a consumer problem wearing a leather jacket"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the feedback loop is already running. consumers stop spending businesses cut hours wages cool consumers spend even less. thats what this table is showing in one snapshot. and heres the trap: the fed cant cut yet because core PCE is still at 3.0% and they just got a new chair nominee whos supposed to be the inflation hawk. cutting now would destroy warsh's credibility before he even starts. so the economy is slowing into a fed thats politically frozen. rate cuts will come but not until something breaks visibly enough to give them cover. by then the feedback loop is already 2-3 quarters deep."
X Link 2026-02-10T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"50% expect stocks to go up. 50% expect unemployment to rise. both cant be right and historically its the labor market that wins. this is what late-cycle euphoria looks like. retail is bullish on the market while being bearish on their own job prospects. thats not confidence thats cognitive dissonance funded by 401k autopilot. last time sentiment was this stretched vs economic reality was late [----]. not saying its [----]. but the gap between vibes and data has a way of closing fast and closing ugly"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv 74x CAPE on growth stocks while real retail sales are going negative. the earnings these valuations are pricing in require a consumer thats already tapping out. math implies pain"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"this is why beijing cant export its way out of this. you can subsidize manufacturing all you want but when your own consumers wont spend youre just exporting deflation to the rest of the world. home sales -50% from [----]. thats not a correction thats a generational wealth shock. chinese households had 70% of their wealth in real estate. that confidence doesnt come back with a rate cut or a stimulus check. it takes years. and this is the backdrop for trumps beijing visit next month. china needs a deal more than the headlines suggest. the leverage isnt where most people think it is."
X Link 2026-02-10T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"fair point. the buyback-CTA cycle does reset and thats been the pattern for the last [--] years. no argument there. the part i watch is when the cycle breaks - buyback blackout windows a vol shock that forces CTAs to sell faster than desks can absorb or credit spreads widening enough to make buyback financing expensive. none of that is happening today. but at 150M shares short on TLT and retail sitting at peak bullishness the margin for error is thin. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021337630600986866 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021337630600986866"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"supply side story is solid. rig count down 30% production finally rolling over shorts at decade highs. classic setup for a squeeze. but heres what most energy bulls miss: demand is the variable now not supply. china consumer confidence at record lows US real retail sales negative global manufacturing PMIs barely above [--]. you can have a supply story and still lose if demand falls faster. the wildcard is data centers. AI power demand is the one structural demand driver that didnt exist [--] years ago. if that holds energy wins on the margin even in a slowdown. but "firmly bullish" without"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"yesterday's tape. US core retail sales came in at 0.0%. estimate was +0.4%. this is december peak holiday season and the consumer just. stopped. control group was -0.1% which feeds directly into GDP. atlanta fed's GDPNow slashed Q4 growth from 4.2% to 3.7% right after. market closed mixed. S&P -0.33% nasdaq -0.59% dow +0.10%. but heres the thing - about [---] names in the S&P were actually green. equal weight index closed up. mag7 dragged while money rotated into cheaper names. thats not broadening. thats musical chairs. alphabet issued $20B in US debt then went and sold 100-year bonds in"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"104 tonnes in shanghai vaults up 500% since mid-2025. and Q2 [----] it was under [--] tonnes. yeah thats not retail buying gold chains. chinese consumers just put $2.65B into gold ETFs in january alone. consumer confidence at record lows housing down 50% from [----] yuan under pressure. when your property market dies and you dont trust the currency gold is what you buy. this is structural not speculative. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021384340463382646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021384340463382646"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"139 leveraged tech ETFs. retail can now 3x long nvidia on their phone while waiting for coffee. this is how late-cycle excess gets packaged and sold. the ETF industry doesnt care if you make money. they care that you trade. more products = more fees more flow more volatility when it unwinds. we'll see how [---] leveraged long funds feel when tech has a real down month. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393569907605978 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393569907605978"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"hiring rate at 3.3%. thats [----] territory. let that sit for a second. everyone keeps saying "unemployment is low so the economy is fine" but thats backwards. hiring freezes come first. layoffs come after. by the time the unemployment rate catches up the damage is already done. ive seen this exact sequence play out before. todays jobs print is gonna be interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021394927561969770 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021394927561969770"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"feb [--] was one of those days where everything moved but nothing agreed on why. bad data dropped. small biz optimism down retail sales flat. macro surprise index tanked. bond market did what it always does - priced in cuts. 60bp of easing now baked in for the year. 10Y fell curve bull flattened. textbook stuff. but stocks didnt get the memo. rate cuts are usually bullish for equities right not when the reason is "oh the economy might actually be breaking." thats a different kind of rate cut. the kind you dont want. financials got wrecked on an altruist headline about AI tax tools. the funny"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"EM divergence is getting wider and AI is the wedge. blackrock is making the case that emerging markets arent moving as a block anymore. korea ripped another 20%+ after last years rally. india is lagging even with a US trade deal in pocket. same asset class completely different tape. the through-line is AI hardware. korea and taiwan are riding the semiconductor capex wave - hyperscalers keep announcing bigger spend and the supply chain runs through these markets. its not just chips either. copper industrial metals manufacturing infrastructure - all sitting in EM. the AI buildout needs physical"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"usd/jpy [------] down 0.66%. yen catching a bid as US rate cut expectations build. 60bp of easing priced in for the year now and todays jobs print could add more. meanwhile boj is still on the hiking path. the rate gap is narrowing from both sides. this trade has more room to run. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021441945990480042 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021441945990480042"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"china issuing 14B yuan in sovereign bonds in hong kong today. offshore yuan bond issuance has been ramping up quietly. beijing is building a parallel funding channel outside the dollar system while the consumer at home is frozen. cant fix domestic demand so theyre exporting capital infrastructure instead. same playbook different packaging. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021442445897236964 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021442445897236964"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@coinbureau speculative era ending = the smart money figured out how to speculate with better PR"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mrcryptoxwhale leverage is not a strategy. its a liquidation timer"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"japan just printed 1342T in national debt. thats a new record. up 24.5T from last year. to put that in context - the increase alone is roughly a third of japans annual tax revenue (75T). theyre borrowing a third of what they collect just to keep the lights on. and heres where it gets interesting for bond people. takaichi just won a supermajority on a platform of "responsible aggressive fiscal policy." translation - more spending more JGB issuance more supply hitting a market where BOJ is the only real bid. meanwhile BOJ is hiking. current rate 0.75% BofA sees 1.00% by april. on a 1342T debt"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"gold bouncing around $5038 after that brutal $600 drop from the january highs. silver at $81.50. not dead but not healthy either. whats moving it today: US retail sales came in weak. consumer spending cooling treasury yields dropping dollar struggling to recover from mondays selloff. classic "bad data = gold bid" setup. but this isnt a clean rally. three things fighting each other right now. bullish pressure - weak retail data means the economy is slowing. slower economy means higher odds of fed cuts. lower rates = gold likes that. yields are already pulling back and dollar cant find a floor."
X Link 2026-02-11T10:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"fear and greed at extreme lows has historically been a decent contrarian signal. thats fair. but the comparison needs work. post-COVID was zero rates and unlimited QE. post-LUNA had rate cut expectations already baked in. today we're at 3.5-3.75% with a hawkish fed chair nominee and ETF outflows still running. the backdrop isnt the same. also the +900% after LUNA - BTC bottomed around $17K and peaked at $108K. thats roughly +535% not +900%. numbers matter when youre calling a bottom. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021526534717141309 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021526534717141309"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"most people know about yield curve inversion. few understand why the danger is when it uninverts. the 10Y-2Y spread sat inverted for [--] months - october [----] to december [----]. longest since the 1970s. now its back positive at +71bps and steepening. heres the thing most miss: the curve isnt normalizing because the economy is healthy. the 2Y is dropping faster than the 10Y because the market is pricing in fed cuts. this is bull steepening - and historically its the phase where recessions actually hit. [----] [----] [----] [----]. every time. the inversion is the warning. the uninversion is the event."
X Link 2026-02-11T10:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mayhem4Markets @jpmorgan @TraderadeTweets dotcom SaaS crashed because of valuations. this SaaS is crashing because AI might replace the product. thats a different kind of cheap"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CryptoGirlNova this. bottoms are built not bounced. the people who got rekt at $100K-80K werent wrong about direction. they were wrong about timing. and in leveraged markets timing is everything. patience isnt sexy but its cheaper than catching knives"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xkyle__ im using these models daily for research writing analysis. the jump from GPT-4 to whats out now isnt incremental. its a different tool entirely. people still comparing it to "fancy autocomplete" havent touched the new ones"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JesseCohenInv theyre not trading like meme coins. meme coins dont have central banks buying 1000+ tons a year. gold is dedollarization. silver is solar panels. copper is AI data centers eating the power grid. the move has fundamentals. it just doesnt feel like it because the speed is unusual"
X Link 2026-02-11T11:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@robin_j_brooks when good data cant lift the dollar the story has changed. the market isnt pricing US strength anymore. its pricing US fiscal risk. thats a different trade entirely"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"-584K revision on [----] payrolls. 181K total for the year. thats not a strong labor market. thats barely a pulse. fed held rates up thinking jobs were fine. they werent. the data was just late. same story every cycle - bankruptcy filings at [----] levels curve uninverting ECI stuck. the cracks were already there. the revisions just made them visible. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021648944389140553 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021648944389140553"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"credit card balances at $1.28T. average APR at 21%. 18-29 year olds at 9.5% serious delinquency. do the math on that for a second. kids who started spending in the free money era are now paying 21% on debt they took out when rates were zero. this is the part of the "strong consumer" story nobody wants to talk about. aggregate numbers look fine because the top is fine. the bottom is drowning. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021668562260414771 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021668562260414771"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BoringBiz_ 181K for the full year. thats not a slowdown. thats a hiring freeze with good PR. and the squeeze on young grads is real - offshoring takes the low end AI takes the middle. the entry ramp is disappearing from both directions"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter $18.8T in household debt at 21% credit card APR and 7%+ mortgage rates. the "strong consumer" is borrowing to look strong. thats not spending power. thats a balance sheet getting hollowed out from the inside"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"long day. charts off phone down. seoul is freezing but the sky cleared up for the first time this week. sometimes thats enough"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TaviCosta the dollar losing its trendline NFP beating with no DXY response non-US equities best start since [----]. the rotation isnt coming. its here. most people just havent repriced it yet"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@yieldsearcher everyone talks about AI capex in chips and software. nobody talks about the electricity bill. data centers are power plants that happen to compute. coal gas nuclear - whatever keeps the lights on. the energy bottleneck is the trade nobody is positioned for"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Brendan_Duke point [--] is the one nobody is modeling. AI buildout needs power copper data centers - all physical all capital intensive. thats inflationary at the input level while being deflationary at the output level. rates stay higher because the capex cycle demands it"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FinanceLancelot yen carry unwind was the story last summer at [---]. [---] isnt panic yet but the direction matters more than the level. BOJ is hiking toward 1% while the fed is stuck. that rate differential closing is what kills carry trades. not a single print"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"this is the playbook. weak dollar = gold and EM outperform US equities lag. weve been watching every piece of this fall into place today. DXY losing its trendline NFP beat with no dollar bid non-US at best start in [--] years. the rotation has a historical script and its running it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021797721452224882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021797721452224882"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv revised down [--] out of [--] months. thats not error. thats systematic overstatement. the fed made policy based on numbers that didnt exist. and todays 130K headline will probably get the same treatment in two months"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SJosephBurns the vote is symbolic. veto is near certain and 2/3 override isnt happening. what matters for markets is the signal - cracks in party unity on tariffs. that changes the negotiating leverage even if the policy doesnt change yet"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@business expansive spending with BOJ hiking toward 1% on a 229% debt-to-GDP balance sheet. investors arent worried about Takaichi. theyre worried about the bond math. every 25bp costs another 2.5T in interest"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@business hedge funds flipping long yen even after a hot NFP print. that tells you the trade isnt about US rates anymore. its about the rate differential closing. BOJ hiking while the fed is frozen. smart money already repositioning for the carry unwind"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investingcom selling your treasuries while keeping the trade truce alive. thats not diplomacy. thats hedging. china is de-risking the balance sheet while keeping the trade channel open. both sides need the april meeting to go well but for very different reasons"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv 10Y rising while the dollar falls. thats the chart that matters. when yields go up and the currency still weakens the bond market isnt attracting capital anymore. its demanding compensation. thats not safe haven behavior"
X Link 2026-02-12T07:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"interest expense on track to be 2x the defense budget. and treasury had the chance to lock in low rates on the long end during ZIRP. they didnt. thats a duration management failure that will compound for decades. the bond math is already unforgiving and CBO projections assume no recession. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021842608268751283 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021842608268751283"
X Link 2026-02-12T07:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"january CPI preview. drops tomorrow night (feb [--] 8:30am ET). december was 2.7% headline 2.6% core. consensus has both coming down to around 2.5%. looks like cooling on the surface. under the hood its messier. january is when annual price resets hit. december tends to print the lowest of the year and this time the shutdown distortions pushed it even lower. the base effect sets up a bounce. energy isnt clean either. gasoline pulled back but the winter storm in late january spiked electricity and nat gas. the offset means energy barely helps the print. shelter still stuck near 3%. used cars"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investingcom loosening the leash on banks right when credit card delinquencies hit 12.7% and household debt is at $18.8T. interesting timing"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"hedge funds flipping long yen. were short last week on Takaichi fiscal spending fears. election over position reversed. the logic is clean. fiscal concerns fading + japan signaling FX intervention readiness + BOJ hiking toward 1%. put volume on yen 50% above calls in the options market. citi says both hedge funds and asset managers selling dollar-yen. but heres the real tell. NFP beat yesterday and the dollar still couldnt rally. when strong US data cant lift the dollar going long yen is the right direction. the market is pricing US fiscal risk not US growth. BOJ hiking while the fed is"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the market is a casino. not a metaphor. heres the math. 0DTE options - expire same day. these now account for 78% of daily Nasdaq [---] volume and 65% of S&P [---] volume. up from 55% and 50% just a year ago. people arent buying stocks. theyre betting on whether the next few hours go up or down. thats what dominates the tape now. why it matters. 0DTE has extremely high gamma. small price moves cause massive swings in option value and dealers have to delta hedge in real time. when the market tilts one way that hedging flow amplifies the move. any gap triggers a cascade. put simply - most of the"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"when the administration ties its credibility to stock prices the put is implicit. every wobble becomes a policy response. thats not free markets. thats a feedback loop where intervention is the floor. and tavi is right - thats structurally bullish for hard assets. if the response to every drawdown is more liquidity or fiscal support the currency pays the bill. gold at $5K isnt an accident. its pricing exactly this dynamic. nominal highs in stocks real gains in gold. the denominator is doing the work. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021880196765528448"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"RYZM Term Explainer #005: Carry Trade yen BOJ hikes carry unwind everywhere on the timeline. heres what the carry trade actually is why it matters and where we are right now. BOJ at 0.75% hiking toward 1%. fed frozen at 3.50%. when the spread narrows the math on [--] years of free money flips. august [----] was the trailer. #CarryTrade #BOJ #MacroEducation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021884532006494586 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021884532006494586"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bitunix_ryanlee "crisis is opportunity" is what people say after the bottom not during it. during the actual crisis most people freeze overlever or panic sell. the edge isnt mindset. its cash a plan and the discipline to size correctly when everyone else is puking"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"kremlin responds to US tariff threat over cuba support - "we dont want escalation but we dont have any trade turnover with the US right now." translation - you cant tariff what doesnt exist. sanctions already severed the trade link. threatening tariffs on a country you already cut off is an empty gun. the real question isnt russia's response. its where this goes next. if the US is poking at the cuba-russia line thats a signal on secondary sanctions expansion. watch who's next. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021892206903300494 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021892206903300494"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"the data checks out but "BREAKING" and "unprecedented" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here lol. WUI counts how often "uncertain" appears in EIU reports. its literally a word frequency index. uncertainty is high yeah no kidding. tariffs flipping daily Fed stuck two hot wars. but equities at ATH and credit spreads contained tells you markets arent pricing apocalypse. yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021898133706617081 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021898133706617081"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"AI didnt suck capital out of crypto. 3.5% risk-free rates did. why would anyone chase memecoin volatility when tbills exist. the attention part is fair tho. AI stole the narrative and the talent followed the narrative. but crypto infra is still getting built quietly - BUIDL at $1.8B RWA hitting $35B+ DePIN actually generating revenue. the noise left. the plumbing stayed. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021901671446577446 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021901671446577446"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@business @scottlincicome @opinion tariffs are a consumer tax with a flag on it. trade reroutes margins get added in transit and the end buyer pays. beijing figured this out in [----]. not sure why we're still acting surprised"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the ore grade decline is the part most people miss. youre not just finding less copper youre extracting less copper per ton of rock. cost curves go parabolic from here. and this is happening right as AI buildout needs copper for every data center every transformer every cable. supply math broken while demand accelerates. thats not a cycle thats structural"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@goldchartbook the real question is whether this flips. if rates stay here or go higher bonds keep bleeding. if something breaks and the fed has to cut hard bonds rip and gold gives back. decade isnt over yet"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"same pattern everywhere. AI GDP goes to the companies that build the chips. not to the workers who build the economy around them. taiwan is just the clearest version of this because the concentration is so extreme - one company is basically the entire growth story. 70% earning under $1500/month while the economy posts 15-year highs. thats not a boom. thats a subsidy from the many to the few with GDP as the receipt. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021908129622139390 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021908129622139390"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@graddhybpc parabolic curves are fun until they arent. the setup is valid but "as long as the curve holds" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. gold just did -18% in two weeks off the warsh nomination. curves break when the macro shifts under them"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"full disclosure im a claude power user and completely biased here lol. but $20B from thiel DE shaw and dragoneer isnt dumb money chasing hype. these are the funds that do the math first. anthropic is quietly building the thing most AI companies only talk about - actual safety research that ships into product. using claude daily changed how i work and think. not saying that as an ad saying it as someone who tested every model out there. the AI race has a lot of noise. this is signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021910440201327027 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021910440201327027"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"cpi tomorrow is the one that matters. market is pricing [--] cuts this year while jobs keep coming in strong. if cpi prints hot again that 2-cut narrative dies fast and bonds sell off. the fed is stuck. labor market wont crack inflation wont drop. theyre running out of reasons to cut. watch real rates not the headline number - thats where the actual pain signal lives. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021912568043102538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021912568043102538"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""trump insider with 100% win rate" is doing so much heavy lifting lol. one wallet making big bets before events could be anything - market maker hedging fund rebalancing or just someone with a bloomberg terminal and conviction. $110M short before CPI is a trade not a prophecy. if he's wrong nobody will screenshot this. if he's right it becomes "proof." thats how survivorship bias works in real time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021913784886210958 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021913784886210958"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$5000 broke again. [--] minutes. this is what happens when a crowded trade meets a macro regime shift. gold ran on rate cut hopes and inflation fear. both narratives are cracking - jobs strong fed stuck warsh incoming. the bid is gone when everyone is long the same thesis. classic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022001545953661302 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022001545953661302"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"headline cooling but core accelerating m/m is the worst combo for the fed. they cant point to progress when the sticky stuff is reheating. 0.34% monthly core annualizes to over 4%. thats not "path to 2%." and that forecast range tells the real story - [----] to [----] is massive. nobody knows how to model tariff passthrough yet. the fog is the signal. when the smartest rooms on the street cant agree within 17bps the fed sure as hell isnt cutting with confidence. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022002346822414448 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022002346822414448"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@robin_j_brooks strong data + dollar weakening is a regime break. normally hot jobs = dollar up. if that flips everything downstream changes. DXY is the tide everything else is just boats"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter apple down 5% on a CPI day. not an apple story its a duration story. when rates reprice higher the longest duration assets get hit hardest. and what has a higher duration than a $3T company priced on earnings [--] years out"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"what happened today in one thread: hot CPI killed the rate cut dream. core m/m accelerated to 0.34% while the market was still pricing [--] cuts. the fed isnt cutting into this. math doesnt work. then everything sold together. gold stocks crypto silver - correlations went to [--]. thats not sector rotation. thats liquidity leaving. when everyone needs cash at the same time nothing is a safe haven. S&P -1% Nasdaq -1.6% small caps -2%. apple alone dropped 5%. not an apple story - a duration story. longest duration assets get hit hardest when rates reprice. and underneath all of this the AI scare"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv record inflows into gold ETFs in january and then gold drops -3.5% today below $5000. thats a lot of new longs underwater right now. crowded trades dont need a reason to unwind they just need one bad CPI print"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"washed my hair made ramyeon watching something dumb on netflix. this is the real alpha"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"people ask me what AI tool to use. doesnt matter. the ones who learn to ask better questions will outperform the ones who chase better models. the edge isnt the tool its you"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"tariff front-running turned copper into a strategic asset overnight. US imports doubled in [----] and stockpiles up 6400% since june [----]. this isnt demand its hoarding before the gate closes. when the tariff actually hits the rest of the world faces a squeeze while the US sits on a mountain of inventory. classic trade war playbook. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022059173576654907 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022059173576654907"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"GAAP EPS -$2.49 looks shocking but dig into it - thats mostly unrealized losses on their crypto holdings hitting the books. btc dropped 50% from ATH last quarter. non-GAAP was $0.66 which still missed but isnt a disaster. revenue $1.78B down 21% YoY. the headline is designed to scare. the actual business is hurting but not dying. know the difference between accounting pain and operational pain. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022060351572127848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022060351572127848"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:28Z [---] followers, 11.3K engagements
"@mignoletkr this is the part most people get wrong. real capitulation doesnt look like "buying the dip." it looks like nobody wanting to buy at all. right now people are still arguing about entries. thats not fear thats negotiation. fear is when the comment section goes quiet"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the market right now is getting squeezed from two directions and nobody is talking about both at the same time. from above: inflation wont die. CPI prints tonight and the street expects core at 0.3%+ m/m. if it comes in hot again the 2-cut narrative is done. the fed is stuck at 3.5% with no room to move. real rates stay elevated. duration gets punished. from below: AI is eating margin structures alive. started with SaaS. moved to insurance credit real estate services. yesterday it hit logistics - CHRW posted an 8-sigma move. one AI platform claims +400% freight volume without adding"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"11 weeks straight into high-grade bonds. smart money locking in 3.5%+ yields before the window closes. when equities are repricing and AI is eating margins a guaranteed coupon starts looking like the best trade in town. bond math is simple - you get paid to wait. nice to see my asset class getting some love finally. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092009234960641 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092009234960641"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"fair point on guidance. but crypto earnings are uniquely hard to guide - your revenue is literally tied to an asset that moved 50% in one quarter. the GAAP miss is mostly mark-to-market on holdings they didnt sell. the operational miss is the real concern and thats a smaller gap. still not great tho. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092651760341098 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022092651760341098"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"net interest hitting $2.1T by [----] means the US government will spend more on debt payments than defense. thats not a budget thats a debt servicing operation with a military attached. and this is the math at current rates - if rates stay higher for longer it gets worse. "whats the long-term plan" - there isnt one. thats the plan. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022107973594886521 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022107973594886521"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv this is the chart that explains the K-shaped economy in one image. nominal GDP says growth. real retail sales say erosion. the gap between the two is where inflation ate the middle class. five years of losing purchasing power while being told the economy is strong"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WatcherGuru $84B in purchases is the headline but the real deal is $250B in chip investment. TSMC alone committed $165B. this isnt a trade deal its a semiconductor reshoring deal wearing a tariff coat. the message to beijing is louder than the numbers"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachilos_ not my area of expertise tbh but i appreciate you always showing love on my posts which country's labor reform are you looking into maybe i can help point you in the right direction"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RuzhyoX @KobeissiLetter exactly. mark-to-market works both ways. crypto drops GAAP looks like a disaster. crypto rips GAAP looks like a miracle. the actual business is somewhere in between"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@nachilos_ thats really kind thank you argentina is actually fascinating right now - milei's experiment is one of the most aggressive macro resets ive seen. might do a thread on it sometime. stay tuned and keep the love coming lol"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"since you asked - heres my read on argentina. inflation from 300% to 32% in under two years. first fiscal surplus in [--] years. milei did the thing most people said was impossible. respect. but. $10B in usable reserves $20B in maturities due this year. thats a math problem. the new FX band ties depreciation to lagged inflation which sounds clever until you realize it just builds a feedback loop. not an anchor. morgan stanley thinks the peso is 10-15% overvalued. if theyre right the inflation progress gets stress tested real fast. milei bought time with a midterm landslide and a $20B swap from"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"the disconnect between asset prices and the real economy isnt just a US problem. its everywhere. korea argentina taiwan UK - same pattern different accent. GDP says growth main street says survival. and heres what keeps me up at night. if financial markets crack from here theres no easy fix. central banks cant just print their way out this time. inflation is still sticky. you print into sticky inflation you dont get recovery - you get stagflation. thats the worst outcome in the playbook. prices rising while the economy contracts. no good policy response exists for that. now layer AI on top."
X Link 2026-02-13T04:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"the math is right but mean reversion needs a catalyst. shiller PE has stayed "overvalued" for [--] years now. the question isnt whether it reverts - its what breaks first. last time it was housing. this time the candidates are AI margin destruction sovereign debt spiral or a liquidity event nobody sees coming. [----] isnt a prediction its a reminder that gravity exists. just nobody knows when"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter taiwan deal yesterday steel/aluminum tariff rollback today. the pattern is clear - deals first then ease. this is the negotiation playbook playing out in real time"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@steve_hanke china exporting deflation while the US cant kill inflation. two largest economies pulling in opposite directions. this is why global macro is so messy right now - theres no single story anymore"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WallStreetMav $39T to $63T in a decade and thats the optimistic scenario. at some point the debt isnt a problem to solve its the system itself. gold doesnt have a ceiling because the dollar doesnt have a floor"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LynAldenContact as someone sitting in seoul right now - we've been waiting for this moment. taiwan got the deal korea has the leverage. samsung and SK make the memory the world runs on and theres no plan B. the negotiation already started the day the taiwan deal was signed"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"everyone wants to understand the market. start with bonds. bonds are the closest thing to truth in finance. no narrative no hype no "AI will change everything." just math. principal coupon maturity. you either get paid or you dont. stocks tell you stories. bonds tell you the cost of those stories. when i was on the desk we used to say: equity traders have opinions bond traders have math. a decade later i still think thats right. the yield curve doesnt lie it doesnt care about your thesis and it definitely doesnt care about your feelings. every asset in the world is priced off a risk-free"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@lisaabramowicz1 $104B into international vs $25B into US. the great rotation is real. money is finally pricing in what the bond market has been saying for months - US exceptionalism had an expiration date. when the dollar weakens on strong data capital follows"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"CPI night. the number that moves everything. january headline expected at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y - down from december's 2.7%. sounds like progress on paper. but the real story is core. street consensus says 0.3% m/m some desks like kiplinger are modeling 0.39% with tariff passthrough and year-start price resets baked in. annualize that and youre looking at 3.5-4.7%. thats not "path to 2%." what the fed is watching: shelter. december was 0.4% m/m still the heaviest weight in the basket. if this doesnt cool nothing else matters. core goods. tariffs are starting to show up. firms used the calendar"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"goldman's oppenheimer is calling the end of the asset-light era. for decades the market rewarded companies that owned nothing - no factories no infrastructure just software and margins. AI is flipping that. building the AI future requires physical stuff. data centers need power systems connectors mechanical equipment. you cant run a GPU cluster on vibes. the companies that actually make and build things - the "old economy" names everyone ignored - are suddenly the bottleneck. capex is surging in tech and utilities. someone has to supply the copper the transformers the cooling systems the grid"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"RYZM Education Series #4: Macro Cycle [---] where we are in the cycle. what each phase means for your money. and why most people figure it out too late. fidelity says mid-cycle. morgan stanley cant decide. the data says late expansion trying not to become slowdown. CPI night. [--] slides. numbers dont lie. #MacroCycle #AssetAllocation #RYZM https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022280417525874846 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022280417525874846"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"labor supply is high agreed. but demand is cooling. job openings just fell to 6.54m lowest since [----]. more workers crowding into softer demand isnt a boom. its how wage pressure rolls over. unemployments been hovering in the mid-4s. labor always looks fine right before it doesnt. well see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022283901348233707 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022283901348233707"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"settlement isn't reserve. sure trade in yuan or ruble is growing due to sanctions. but where do central banks park that wealth liquidity seeks the deepest pool and thats still us treasuries. with warsh at the fed and stablecoins digitizing the dollar the greenback isnt dying. its just changing rails"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@coinbureau mirae asset manages $500b aum. buying korbit isnt just M&A. its building a direct pipe for institutional capital to flow into crypto. while retail is scared of the dip tradfi is buying the infrastructure. this is what real adoption looks like. plumbing first volume later"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mary30776604 @thesiriusreport toxic maybe. but liquidity is amoral. capital goes where it can exit. try dumping $50b in yuan or rubles without crashing the peg. treasury depth is the moat not the ethics"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"RYZM Investment Advice : Position Sizing everyone obsesses over entries. nobody talks about sizing. thats backwards. the 1-2% rule is boring. its also the reason some traders survive [--] years and others blow up in [--] months. the math decides your size not your conviction. save this. #RiskManagement #PositionSizing #RYZM https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022285916983947703 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022285916983947703"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"silver down to $76 gold hovering near $5k. looks nasty but check the rsi. copper and zinc are deep in oversold territory (20s). this isn't a fundamental shift its a liquidity flush. leveraged longs got liquidated plain and simple. short term signals scream sell but the yearly trend (+135% on silver) is still intact. volatility is the rent you pay for performance. let the dust settle before you bid. don't catch falling knives. #commodities #volatility #macro https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022286528333168808 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022286528333168808"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JesseCohenInv [---] vs [---] is clean framing. but the fed doesnt pivot on one print. its the trend and financial conditions that matter. [---] wont kill cuts if growth softens and spreads widen. rates trade the path not the point"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"🚨 Bessent on CNBC ahead of the inflation print: inflation back to 2% by mid-2026 he says. crypto legislation needs clarity. fast. metal import tariffs could be narrowed. bond market stabilizing credit to policy. optimism is easy before the data. lets see what the print says. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022292666747392434 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022292666747392434"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"the gap between truflation and BLS isnt just lag. its structural. BLS shelter weight is 36% of CPI and updates on a 6-12 month delay. truflation captures rent changes closer to real time. so when truflation reads 0.72% and BLS reads 2.7% a big chunk of that spread is shelter catching up to what already happened. the real question for today isnt the y/y headline. its the m/m core. if that prints above 0.3% the fed has no room to move regardless of what the y/y says. weight revisions matter too. new basket could shift the number either way. watching."
X Link 2026-02-13T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"CPI tonight. i expect a low print. the numbers have been cooling for months. truflation reads 0.72%. BLS shelter lag is the only thing keeping the headline above [--]. real-time rent data has been falling since mid-2025. the gap is structural not informational. if it prints soft the rate cut narrative gets louder fast. and i think it should. unpopular take: the fed is already behind. rates should have come down sooner. the pause wasnt about inflation. it was about asset prices. equities at highs credit spreads tight crypto running. the fed couldnt cut into that without looking like they were"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"January CPI Breakdown Headline CPI (2.4% y/y) Annual inflation slowed to 2.4% the lowest since May [----]. Gradually moving closer to the Feds 2% target. Core CPI (2.5% y/y) Core rose 0.3% m/m still showing some stickiness. Services remain the main pressure point. Key Components Energy (-1.5% m/m -0.1% y/y) The main driver of the downside surprise. Gasoline (-3.2%) and fuel oil (-5.7%) pulled the index lower. Used Cars (-1.8% m/m -2.0% y/y) Another meaningful drag. Goods disinflation continues to help. Transportation Services (+1.4% m/m +1.3% y/y) The standout on the upside. Labor and insurance"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter skew at [----] tells you correlation is breaking. index flat average stock moved 10.8% that's dispersion at 99th percentile stress levels. when hedging cost hits [----] bear + [----] crisis pricing ask what breaks first - credit spreads or liquidity. tape doesnt lie"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter he appoints the sec chair. his company files for the etf. sec "reviews" it. regulatory capture doesnt need to hide anymore. the conflict is the system now"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GlobalMktObserv healthcare propping up the headline. everything else already in recession. fed keeps calling this "solid" while manufacturing bleeds -83k in 12mo. rate policy doesnt hit services and goods the same. this aint soft landing. this is bifurcation"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@milesdeutscher the k-shape is real. but its not "AI users vs non-users."its who owns the compute vs who rents it. 77% of new AI jobs need a masters. the gap was already there. AI just made it visible"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hartnett's EM/China buy call US exceptionalism fatigue is real. ABD sentiment spreading EM inflows picking up Chinese bank stocks quietly breaking out. the data supports the thesis. but context matters. copper first. sitting near $13000/mt all time high territory. JPM sees a 330K ton refined deficit in [----] and projects 475K tons of copper demand from AI data centers alone. supply side is constrained with major mines cutting guidance on power outages. Goldman tells a different story tho. fair value $11500 year-end target $11000. reasoning: global surplus not resolved Chinese refined copper"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@oscaytrades looking for a savior is the fastest way to get rekt. no one is coming to save your pnl. wake up"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"WebMCP turns the open web into a giant API catalog. sites without navigator.modelContext will be invisible to the agent economy. seo was about keywords; aeo is about executable schemas. google and microsoft are effectively building a toll road for agents. adapt or get filtered out. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022571301286605284 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022571301286605284"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@The_Prophet_ algorithmic warfare is the only warfare left. if you aren't running the fastest inference you're a target. speed is the new stealth"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"stocks at all time highs while main street is defaulting on camrys. classic k-shaped split. rates at 3.5% act like gravity. it took time but the lag effect is finally breaking the consumer. when credit cards blow up retail volume vanishes. the recession isn't coming it's already here for the bottom 50%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022573382064312792 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022573382064312792"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@nicrypto dumping treasuries while managing overnight rates tells you everything. they are fortifying the balance sheet not expanding it. stimulus exports inflation; control exports deflation. china is choosing the latter. adjust your risk appetite accordingly"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
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