# ![@0xDecember Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1607918024182616064.png) @0xDecember December

December posts on X about $byon, $kmx, $wba, $w the most. They currently have [---] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1607918024182616064/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1607918024182616064/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +813%
- [--] Month [-----] +712%
- [--] Months [------] -19%
- [--] Year [-------] -61%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1607918024182616064/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1607918024182616064/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [--] +67%
- [--] Months [--] -4%
- [--] Year [---] -67%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1607918024182616064/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1607918024182616064/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.25%
- [--] Month [---] -0.25%
- [--] Months [---] +3.10%
- [--] Year [---] +8.40%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1607918024182616064/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1607918024182616064/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [financial services](/list/financial-services)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[$byon](/topic/$byon), [$kmx](/topic/$kmx), [$wba](/topic/$wba), [$w](/topic/$w), [$cvna](/topic/$cvna) #40, [$hsy](/topic/$hsy), [lmfao](/topic/lmfao), [debt](/topic/debt), [$ostk](/topic/$ostk), [$nycb](/topic/$nycb)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@hingfdiuh](/creator/undefined) [@aarondrockwell](/creator/undefined) [@checksinc](/creator/undefined) [@fearmunger](/creator/undefined) [@bod11111](/creator/undefined) [@aririanae](/creator/undefined) [@marcuslemonis](/creator/undefined) [@assetkeen](/creator/undefined) [@cantilloncap](/creator/undefined) [@vitorselles1](/creator/undefined) [@tzero](/creator/undefined) [@prosperousguy](/creator/undefined) [@gungs001](/creator/undefined) [@pawnsauce](/creator/undefined) [@atgolfer88](/creator/undefined) [@jjohnsonnow](/creator/undefined) [@keithkeith80](/creator/undefined) [@hilsonvalli](/creator/undefined) [@sethwuzhere](/creator/undefined) [@bedbathbeyond](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[CarMax, Inc (KMX)](/topic/$kmx) [Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)](/topic/$wba) [Wormhole (W)](/topic/$w) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Hershey Co (HSY)](/topic/$hsy) [New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB)](/topic/$nycb) [Etsy Inc (ETSY)](/topic/$etsy) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTON)](/topic/$pton) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [Kohl's Corporation (KSS)](/topic/$kss) [Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY)](/topic/$bbby) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Freicoin (FRC)](/topic/$frc) [Target Corporation (TGT)](/topic/$tgt) [Radworks (RAD)](/topic/$rad) [Hostess Brands, Inc. Class A Common Stock (TWNK)](/topic/$twnk) [eBay Inc (EBAY)](/topic/$ebay) [J M Smucker Co (SJM)](/topic/$sjm) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)](/topic/$phm) [Signature Bank (SBNY)](/topic/$sbny) [Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY)](/topic/$ally) [MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ)](/topic/$mdlz) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/$cvs) [Credit Suisse Group (CS)](/topic/credit-suisse) [RH (RH)](/topic/$rh) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CWH)](/topic/$cwh) [PacWest Bancorp (PACW)](/topic/$pacw) [USDC (USDC)](/topic/usdc) [Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)](/topic/$tol) [BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.  (BTSG)](/topic/$btsg)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"CarMax ( $KMX ) valued at 30x P/E paints a picture of how street sentiments on the used-car has somewhat bounced back. Likely Carvana ( $CVNA ) would be in the same positioned with expanded growth maybe bearish is the wrong move at face-value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1627918072635072512)  2023-02-21T06:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"That's weird -- one street raised their end of year price-target for Coinbase ( $COIN ) to $84 They still want to run the staking component as a catalyst with $ETH Shanghai fork but definitely agree with halving causing the next bull-run for $BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1633346575945842688)  2023-03-08T05:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Last resort -- and quite common strategy "Corporate carve-out" of loan books. Most relevant M&A transaction to $FRC is $NYCB acquisition of $SBNY. I will try to keep it in sound-bites. https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1644567501626548224 https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1644567501626548224"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1644934481760096256)  2023-04-09T05:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Street expects Coinbase ( $COIN ) Adj EBITDA to return into the positive zone after being negative for three consecutive quarters. High interest-rates and anticipated $BTC hype around halving for next year is one to monitor over the course -- could be the turnaround needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1649555197247766529)  2023-04-21T23:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Last week JPM stress-test deposits and beta of all regional banks including First Republic Bank ( $FRC ). "Valuations have become more attractive given recent underperformance we will remain tactical with our view if issuance post earnings is at a healthy new issue premium.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1650032673098969095)  2023-04-23T07:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Deutsche slapped Citizens Financial Group Inc ( $CFG ) with $39 price-target. "Weaker net interest income due to weaker deposit trends" Let's play the guessing game -- how desperate would you think they want to acquire First Republic Bank ( $FRC ) assets to bolt-on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1652883269875294210)  2023-05-01T03:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Lmfao. "Key driver of $NYCB revenue and expense contributions from the $SBNY team will be the companys ability to retain talent and customers (and deposits)" This is why we love carve-out assets run-on accretive in-conjunction customer acquisitions. Less time in VDR for DD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1657177928902545408)  2023-05-13T00:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CVNA weighted average collateral APR for the current securitization is c. 20.92% which represents a significant increase of [---] bps from the 2022-N1 securitization's rate of 18.05%. This increase is a result of Carvana passing on the cost of higher market rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1657269898501038086)  2023-05-13T06:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In contrast bond coupon for $CVNA current securitization is c. 7.35% which is a considerable improvement of [---] bps from the 2022-N1 securitization's bond coupon rate of c. 3.86%. Annual excess spread would be c. 11.07% or [---] bps lower than [----] -N1 securitization (11.68%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1657270410382278658)  2023-05-13T06:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Because most basket loans of $CVNA and $KMX are from $ALLY you would treat both auto-companies as a consumer financing. $ALLY trades at 0.8x LTM TBV median is 0.9x. It's below both trading comps (if you run universe) and precedent transactions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1658612055816146945)  2023-05-16T23:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"It's quite seldom of us to submit an offer using EBITDA multiple (especially the one mentioned for $CVNA). Usually P/E or TBV else you would get flamed by MDs. $ALLY was valued across 50/50 weighted split"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1658614603016962048)  2023-05-16T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@10xwithakshay @Alex__Pitti Oooof comparing $CVNA and $KMX on an EBIT-basis is dangerous. Street don't even touch it. Lmfao that D&A though -- there are accounting rules to recapitalized it. Akin to EBITDA multiple EV is inflated as investors ignored leases obligations within total debt (IFRS-16)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1659704611689869312)  2023-05-19T23:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@10xwithakshay @Alex__Pitti FYI: If you want to build switchers into your model and outlay street case for $KMX:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1660101562696626176)  2023-05-21T01:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@10xwithakshay @Alex__Pitti FYI: Blue is hard-coded. Also important to factor in Other GPU rather than retail and wholesales lines. Origination is crucial especially for $KMX. JPM assumption on $CVNA:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1660103444525449217)  2023-05-21T02:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Street has CarMax ( $KMX ) price-target at $70. Prime ABS deal: "As some bears have been concerned $CVNA would be unable sell down the elevated level of loan receivables on its balance sheet this filing could be an incremental positive but the economics will be important""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661591055748448256)  2023-06-18T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX monthly securitization data continues to weaken. Compared to the previous year portfolio's delinquency rate increased by [--] bps and the cumulative net loss rate increased by [--] bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661623836931162113)  2023-05-25T06:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"On a positive note for $KMX delinquency rate are slowly pacing to normalized but still above GFC periods. I would expect the same scenario is playing due-course with $CVNA or any auto-financing companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661624445751148544)  2023-05-25T06:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Seems like $KMX CAF priced its [----] - [--] securitization last month. https://investors.carmax.com/financials/financial-information/disclaimer/default.aspx https://investors.carmax.com/financials/financial-information/disclaimer/default.aspx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661626742052884481)  2023-05-25T06:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX weighted average coupon of collateral is 9.57% increase of [--] bps compared to the 2023-1 securitization. Increase attributed to CAF passing on higher interest rates to consumers which occurred in rising interest rate rather than being result of change in credit quality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661627421039407105)  2023-05-25T06:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX bond coupon increased by [--] bps reaching 5.27% compared to the 2023-1 securitization. Collateral spread rose 4.30% representing an increase of [--] bps from the 2023-1 securitization and a significant [---] basis points higher than the low seen in the 2022-4 securitization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661628151162871809)  2023-05-25T06:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Additionally $KMX origination term slightly decreased to [-----] months compared to [-----] months in the previous period (2023-1). Average FICO scores improved to [-----] surpassing the scores of [-----] in 2023-1 and [-----] in 2022-4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661629432979935235)  2023-05-25T07:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Investors need to pan focus around these ABS fillings both $KMX and $CVNA released them -- but seems like no one pays attention to it rather than short-interest (akin to $BBBY investors) Overall seems collateral spread on ABS deal shows improvement off depressed levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661631562407112704)  2023-06-23T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@YouUsed2BCool Since I initially looked $KMX securitization you should also review $CVNA 2023-P2. Provides some great insights on its ABS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661863456105197568)  2023-06-23T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@YouUsed2BCool Lmfao. When c. 90% of streets staying on neutral with their recommendation of $CVNA to their clients. Evercore has Carvana's PT at $11 (always wanted to join this firm when I was looking to exit out of DCM division Credit Suisse). Their advisory team is up there with GS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1661947205018877952)  2023-05-26T04:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Makes me wonder if we were to divest assets (i.e. whether its loan-books or CRE) of $CVNA how much of the amount of goodwill that needs to be written down will take place. There's no post-synergies cost. $PACW sold at massive TBV discount for their books"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1662023624751194112)  2023-05-26T09:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Comparison-purposes between $CVNA & $KMX securitization: $CVNA spreads over benchmark rates for current deal were 8-185 bps higher compared 2023-P1 deal. Higher quality tranches of current deal = tighter spreads while other tranches saw wider spreads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1664757564062715906)  2023-06-02T22:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This could have a negative effect on $CVNA loan sale margins particularly due to $ALLY tightening its standards for lower quality loans. Intrinsic-value will stay at $11-15 until those ABS economics are improved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1664758196181913602)  2023-06-02T22:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$CVNA 2023-P2 deal brings that total loan sales to $1.7b prior considering sales to $ALLY with more than one month to go in the quarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1664759239544537091)  2023-06-02T22:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If you consider the assumption of US$300m in loan sales to $ALLY for the entire quarter $CVNA reduction in the backlogged loan balance is likely closer to US$600m. This pro-forma is based on comparing the US$400m in loan sales during Q1-23"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1664759520831078404)  2023-06-23T21:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Most eyes are on $CVNA -- but I would pay close attention to $KMX. Just based on its recent ABS data it's very attracted even though CAF portfolio are weakening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1664761102864097280)  2023-06-23T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@B_M_M_3 @blue_chip1 How on earth are you comparing $CVNA financials to $AMZN Not apple to apples. What you spouted is the equivalent of acquiring financing companies using EBITDA multiple instead of TBV -- totally skewed. Lmfao. Anyways all the best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1665256790244704256)  2023-06-04T07:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@blue_chip1 @B_M_M_3 Seems like Wedbush's clients made quite a hell of a profit with $AMZN. Share price of their equity research posted at $109 (it's now up 14% at current share price of $124). Quite conservative with their WACC of 8% would assume industry of 9-10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1665515345304604673)  2023-06-05T00:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@blue_chip1 @B_M_M_3 "Tell me Amazon is also overvalued relative to its net income" For future reference with $AMZN You would have to use SoTP model instead of DCF given WACC of 9% are subjective and room for margin of error. In addition to that adjust EV with IFRS-16 accounting rule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1665516301350244352)  2023-06-05T00:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@blue_chip1 @B_M_M_3 Because leases are now capitalized within the total debt of the balance sheet instead of the OPEX line within the income statement. EV = debt (remove leases) + m'cap + minority interest - cash & equivalents Example of $AMZN SoTP model from one street firm:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1665516679089258497)  2023-06-05T00:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Quite bizarre that JPM did put some emphasis on Coinbase ( $COIN ) regulation scrutiny to their clients. Not sure if that $59 [----] price-target is on the plate Someone need to cough up the case fees -- and it's not coming out of personal pockets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1666334647268278273)  2023-06-07T06:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


""We expect $COIN to turn EBITDA positive in 2023" from JPM" Similar conclusions were reached from other street firms months ago. But -- staking is now at risk so I wonder if they will revise this thesis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1666336731325673472)  2023-06-07T06:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"FYI: Couple months ago from one street firm with $COIN https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1649555197247766529 Street expects Coinbase ( $COIN ) Adj EBITDA to return into the positive zone after being negative for three consecutive quarters. High interest-rates and anticipated $BTC hype around halving for next year is one to monitor over the course -- could be the turnaround needed. https://t.co/nU5YjSqljH https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1649555197247766529 Street expects Coinbase ( $COIN ) Adj EBITDA to return into the positive zone after being negative for three consecutive quarters. High"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1666337022347452416)  2023-06-07T06:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Here's something beyond the interest revenue with $COIN haven't seen any street firms beside JPM mentioned the idea of spreads. "We think Coinbase can and would widen spreads to support revenue and EBITDA profitability should trading volumes slow further for longer.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667286224183373824)  2023-06-09T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Playing the devil-advocates here -- this treads on more regulatory waters for $COIN especially how they would positioned the tick-size. "We have some concerns about an intermediarys ability to widen trading spreads on retail investors""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667286752174964736)  2023-06-09T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If spreads are widen traders would encounter increased fees when executing . However when a trader wishes to perform an instant market order on $COIN they are likely to obtain a less advantageous price as a result of the broader dispersion. Increases Coinbase's revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667287925418229760)  2023-06-09T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In certain scenarios market makers (MMs) can gain advantages from broader spreads (delta between bids and asks). Wider spread on $COIN would just enables MMs to secure a larger profit margin by purchasing at the bid price and selling at the ask price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667288433319120897)  2023-06-09T21:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If $COIN or any other exchanges can influence how wide spreads should be displaced -- it's a major concern how much of that is conflict of interest I.e. I run my own exchange increase the spread = trading fees increases = my revenue and EBITDA margins increased exponentially"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667289201828835328)  2023-06-09T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Underlying rationale behind this idea for $COIN is what JPM mentioned above "lack of trading volume while $BTC remains limbo between $25-30k range. Lmfao. If you pondered on this quite an unusual tactic -- one that would not be spun from PE shops"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667334406816825344)  2023-06-10T00:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Besides those for $COIN venture side of the business needs to be put in limelight. One that can yield massive gains for Coinbase itself but you would need an miracle as VC firms tend to take a punt in a pot of [--] companies -- hoping one is the unicorn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1667338243170525187)  2023-06-10T01:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Hopefully Carvana get out of this hole having adjustment positive EBITDA isn't enough as bottom-line (e.g. NPAT) matters from a long-term horizon. Luckily auto-finance ( $CVNA & $KMX ) companies can just securitized the loans and toss it to $ALLY at discounted TBV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1669855637352878084)  2023-06-16T23:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"FYI: $CVNA packaged the loan in various tranche and sold it to $ALLY months ago. So it's possible. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/carvana-adopts-shareholder-rights-plan-protect-ability-reduce-future-tax-bills-2023-01-17/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/carvana-adopts-shareholder-rights-plan-protect-ability-reduce-future-tax-bills-2023-01-17/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1669856121618862081)  2023-06-16T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"ABS market for auto has slow down in terms of headwinds it's recovery with less total arrears/delinquencies -- which is a positive sound-bite for $CVNA & $KMX. Macro not much of a problem-child"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1669857265816576001)  2023-06-16T23:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Spread across subprime for $CVNA & $KMX ABS has also shown resilient. Question now is -- whether if we will see an increase with origination"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1669858125913161729)  2023-06-17T00:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tr90605549 And I do hope -- $CVNA doesn't take the dilutive route. I don't own shares but given my relationship with Apollo - hopefully the road ahead is a positive one for equity investors. Market is fragmented so it will be sad to lose one competitors to $KMX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1671743941513990144)  2023-06-22T04:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Don't forget -- CarMax ( $KMX ) securitization. Lmfao attractive compared to $CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672352839476350976)  2023-06-23T21:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX forward P/E are trading above industry ( $CVNA and other auto-loan companies) benchmark in-conjunction highest since global financial crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672353645285998592)  2023-06-23T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The fact street are forecasting $KMX with no compression or far-less than expected presents how resilient CarMax is positioned in this watery-market of subprime. Release of latest securitization bumped both $KMX & $CVNA after earnings were released -- tells you where to read"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672356405490384896)  2023-06-23T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Fundamentals can be loose for $CVNA & $KMX but the ABS markets is what keeps it up. So pay close attention to those releases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672356888477057025)  2023-06-23T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wondered where those individuals went -- when they were calling $COIN is doom'd. Lmfao its share price has reverted back to pre-SEC. Question now -- are Coinbase going to take this route"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672757607730384896)  2023-06-25T00:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$COIN will return to positive EBITDA for the first-time -- something that is getting ignored by investors so I wasn't sure how you can be so bearish besides its unregulated debacle. Streets are forecasting at extreme price-target of $70 even with what's happening around SEC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672758629748047872)  2023-06-25T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"That forecast of EBITDA for $COIN was presented early April. Yet -- it got washed out from all the noise with SEC but its fundamental narratives remains rigid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672759414472978432)  2023-06-25T00:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"You will always have winners and losers in this market -- clearly those wishing for $COIN demise didn't paid close attention to interest income & VC portfolio. In-conjunction the treasury assets and ETH staking business model within Coinbase for the cause of EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672760186967310336)  2023-06-25T00:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Re: The street firm that forecasted $COIN from the second tweet in this chain. Coinbase's price-target of $70"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1672814704920788993)  2023-06-25T03:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Oh wow -- Coinbase ( $COIN ) is now $69 delta of $1 from street price-target . [----] is the year of positive EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1673949805972979715)  2023-06-28T07:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Next catalyst for $COIN will be the herd with buying of $BTC prior to halving. I remain positive that Coinbase is such a hidden-gem even if trading revenues are down -- their diversification moats via VC & treasury assets/staking is one to watch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1673950485089521665)  2023-06-28T07:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"With the submission interest of $BTC spot ETF being revived and institutional wanting to break into the exchange route -- $COIN will always have the largest market-share of CeFi exchanges established platform for acquisition cost a-lot. And -- gaining trust is key to compete"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1673952031776837633)  2023-06-28T07:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"On top of that from an M&A perspective $COIN is what we call as a platform company you can easily add accretive-value through bolt-on acquisitions into Coinbase For example we would compressed the OPEX through vertically-integrated via acquisitions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1673955602031345672)  2023-06-28T07:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"One example of a transaction that we were mandated went dead -- but Ramsay Health would be considered as a platform company similar to $COIN We would start roll-ups of health services that the company offered so that OPEX would be all in-house"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1673957760504057856)  2023-06-28T07:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Got it For anyone curious on their $COIN report they pushed out to their clients on its venture-side of Coinbase"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1676130600997224453)  2023-07-04T07:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$COIN has been investing in series funding like any VC would do -- you throw money at [--] companies hoping one to be the unicorn. Largest impairment would be FTX but the fact they invested $400m and could've realized $32b profit if the exchange didn't flop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1676131739620737028)  2023-07-04T07:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Royal Bank of Canada has CarMax ( $KMX ) price-target at $70 at 19x Forward P/E. Seems a-bit low from a forecast of P/E maybe way too conservative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677209737686032385)  2023-07-07T06:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX Forward P/E are trading beyond mid-teens. It's even above $CVNA median"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677209921530777600)  2023-07-07T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Latest $KMX earnings has yet to change JPM thesis of a conviction. "no smoking gun on SG&A headcount" Lmfao. Everyone is trying to compressed OPEX this year just to tune the EBITDA lines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677211033000366082)  2023-07-07T07:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Wedbush has $KMX price-target of $85. "F2Q SG&A may see some modest sequential declines driven by seasonality but one-time benefits in Other Overhead may not persist""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677212241832349696)  2023-07-07T07:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Commonality between $CVNA & $KMX these past quarters are the OPEX lines -- rather than GPUs. With $KMX decrease in SG&A expenses is a result of ongoing measures to control costs and improve efficiency in staffing and marketing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677213242031243264)  2023-07-07T07:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Additionally $KMX is influenced by the favorable outcome of dealing with non-CAF uncollectible receivables. Breaking down the components the comp and benefits remained relatively stable YoY but excluding stock-based compensation it decreased by c. 4% in both periods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677213510668013568)  2023-07-07T07:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Reduction in comp and benefits can be attributed to $KMX's ongoing emphasis on optimizing stores and CECs and aligning staffing levels to achieve efficiency improvements. Which is a positive outlet differ to how JPM ain't viewing CarMax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677213798434996224)  2023-07-07T07:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX advertising expenses were lower compared to the previous year in terms of total dollars spent and per unit basis the investments made during the quarter on a per unit basis were consistent with previous quarters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677214604169220098)  2023-07-07T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Got lazy yesterday -- but it does look like JPM is resuming a price-target for CarMax ( $KMX ) since March of $60. "KMX has been executing well with the hand dealt in a prolonged tough used car environment with cost actions that should support nearterm revisions.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677494484735762432)  2023-07-08T01:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$KMX forward P/E multiples are literally not sound I would assume normalization to take place later in the quarters. It's currently trading above its peers (i.e. $CVNA and etc)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677494896188608512)  2023-07-08T01:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"They are now forecasting $KMX with a more positive EBITDA outlook for FY24. Post IFRS-16 CarMax is currently trading at 9x EBITDA let's call pro-forma (excl capitalized leases) of 8.5x EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677495895234084864)  2023-07-08T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another street firm Truist has $KMX price-target of $82. Rather than using an EBITDA model they applied EPS to derive at that target. If you run DCF model you would lean close to $85-90 for intrinsic value (base-case assumptions are WACC of 10% & LTGR of c.6-7%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677496993764061185)  2023-07-08T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lmfao. "we would not chase $KMX here as we think incremental upside is fairly limited." Now -- I wondered what $CVNA would look like with their thesis if CarMax are positioned at that kind of a conviction statement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677497663577817088)  2023-07-08T01:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 Two-stage DCF model for $KMX from 5-years forecasted out. Three-years of c.3-4% growth and last two years would use the terminal of c.6-7%. If I want to value CAF side of CarMax I would dish out SOTP model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677522461850742785)  2023-07-08T03:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 In regards to cash-burn of $KMX management looks to be adopting a cautious strategy for capital allocation prioritizing the management of net leverage -- ensuring the net debt to capital ratio remains slightly below the targeted range of 35-45%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677523149334925313)  2023-07-08T03:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 I think this approach allows $KMX to maintain flexibility in accessing capital markets for both the standalone CAF and the overall company of CarMax. Which is why they are still refraining from engaging in share repurchases with c. $2.5b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677523573509070848)  2023-07-08T03:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 Lens of CapEx: $KMX has reaffirmed its CapEx guidance for FY24 expecting to invest c. $450m vs. $423m in FY23. This investments are aimed at expanding the long-term capacity for reconditioning and auctions as well as the opening of five new locations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677524063663820800)  2023-07-08T03:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 Considering $KMX cash liquidity c. $0.3b and an additional capacity c. $2b in the revolvers -- I'm confident that CarMax is in a favorable position to navigate any headwinds. So -- they are not entirely flushing cash down the drain given their stances on capital allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677524976944177157)  2023-07-08T03:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 $KMX is looking to prioritize projects geared toward bolstering near-term operational efficiency rather than delivered on the promised c.18% share repurchase. Given the backdrop of the industry -- I would rather have our portfolio companies do something similar than buybacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677642713280430082)  2023-07-08T11:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 In regards to $KMX ABS or just CAF division in general NIM suffered a decline due to a fair market value adjustment of $9m equivalent to [--] bps resulting from changes in the hedging strategy triggered by a decrease in short-term interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677644099418222593)  2023-07-08T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 This stands in contrast to a favorable adjustment of $9m recorded in $KMX first quarter of [----]. It is important to note that these adjustments pertain to cash flow hedges associated with a small portion of receivables that are not affected by the securitization market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677644313466109952)  2023-07-08T11:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 As $KMX new securitizations are expected to have lower collateral spreads compared to the loans currently being rolled out of the portfolio -- there is a downward bias for NIM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677644846830587906)  2023-07-08T11:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 However it does seems like the collateral spreads of future ABS transactions are projected to increase gradually. This increase will be driven by higher collateral coupon rates as $KMX company passes on the higher costs of funding to its customers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677644989072015369)  2023-07-08T11:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 FYI: $KMX disclosed a weighted average contract rate of c.11.1% reflecting a sequential increase of [--] bps and a YoY increase of [---] bps. This upward trend in contract rates has the potential to counterbalance any rises in bond coupon rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1677645554615193602)  2023-07-08T11:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lmfao RBC has CarMax ( $KMX ) price-target $90. Their previous target was $70"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1678663718362845187)  2023-07-11T07:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Re: $KMX previous price-target Forward EPS went from 19x to 20x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1678663963222085634)  2023-07-11T07:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"They forecast $KMX with c. 11% YoY Increase with EPS for FY24. RBC expect compression of SG&A which bumped the operating income to 6.7% YoY growth. Seems relatively strong conviction for CarMax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1678665087857606659)  2023-07-11T07:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 Bit of a tangent here but will end it on a sound-bite since I'm busy on advisory mandate. The latest earnings of $KMX has shown the market their resilience with GPU remaining rigid and wholesales beating expectation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1681924581295263744)  2023-07-20T07:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VitorSelles1 Yes -- and if it was significant you would have street covering it. The matter of the fact is $KMX GPU remained strong due to industry pricing dynamics margin management strategies while continuing to test price elasticity and reconditioning efficiencies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1681925445493878784)  2023-07-20T07:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Those that stood on their toes when $KMX & $CVNA were facing headwinds deserve the win with their investments. I don't own any shares and have remained neutral -- but it does feel great to know other auto-financing companies that approached us for capital is doing okay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1682281880710975489)  2023-07-21T06:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Early Jan this year tons of auto-financing were facing distressed. We could've easily created NewCo and consolidated and tuck-in the bunch since market were fragmented. But -- our investment committee hated the idea of securitization as uses and sources to fund transaction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1682283202101280773)  2023-07-21T06:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"To paint some ideas around valuation we could've carve out $CVNA or $KMX assets whether its legacy or not -- at haircut of 0.6-0.7 TBV. Comps & precedent transactions median were 1-1.5x TBV. You don't even need sweeteners to fund the transaction nor synergies adjustments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1682284796368801792)  2023-07-21T07:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Too many individuals tracking sales and etc of CarMax ( $KMX ) most are ignoring the 2023-3 ABS Deal. Securitization are way more important for CarMax via CAF segment compared to $CVNA. Wondered if I should review it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684476390039777282)  2023-07-27T08:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"FYI: Ratings are released for $KMX 2023-3 ABS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684476984792084481)  2023-07-27T08:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is re: CarMax ( $KMX ) 2023-3 ABS. CAF is in the process of marketing its 2023-3 securitization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684832483878322177)  2023-07-28T07:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$KMX weighted average collateral coupon stands at 10.38% reflecting an increase of [--] bps vs. 2023-2 securitization. This rate is the highest on record since 2009"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684832763223183361)  2023-07-28T07:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$KMX collateral spreads will likely improve in a sequential manner. However CarMax still expected to exert a slight downward pressure on the overall portfolio average -- This will lead to a continued sequential decline in quarterly CAF interest margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684833992460337153)  2023-07-28T07:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In $KMX 2023-3 securitization the minimum FICO score required is [---] which is lower compared to [---] in the 2023-2 securitization and [---] in the 2023-1 securitization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684834319402225664)  2023-07-28T07:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Note that the percentage of securitized $KMX CAF loans with 67-72 month terms experienced a sequential decrease of [---] basis points bringing it down to 35.1%. This marks the lowest percentage recorded in our time series"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684834936040443905)  2023-07-28T07:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"FYI : $KMX CAF does not offer loans with terms 72+ months which has led to loss of some customers to other lenders who are willing to provide longer-term loans. These extended loan options help borrowers reduce monthly payments making them attractive to certain customers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1684835116043190273)  2023-07-28T07:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"It does seems like street notation around $CVNA & $KMX credit outlooks is still weakening which is not great. This speaks volume that fundamentals are so disconnected from both stocks -- but it doesn't mean bearish just industry keeps twisting and turning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684837242521767936)  2023-07-28T08:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"From a credit lens $KMX and $CVNA profitably boosted temporarily by selling backlogged auto loans and transitory favorable market pricing conditions. In-conjunction CarMax and Carvana are tightening loan origination terms while its credit performance continues to deteriorate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1684837859097014273)  2023-07-28T08:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheKatrinaGM @HilsonValli What about privatization Let's assume your sources and uses are haircut for $BBBYQ the fees to acquire all 99% floats outweigh the money-multiple and IRR of the deal. Let's not forget about legal/tax fees that you sent off to third-parties"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1686883389025157121)  2023-08-03T02:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheKatrinaGM @HilsonValli In addition to the above $BBBYQ sold off their IPs -- that's one valuable asset gone. Try building a conviction in your investment memo without that. Branding matters more than products -- unless it's niche. Which the company isn't I can shop at $TGT and $WMT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1686883887270821893)  2023-08-03T02:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4: CAPEX Given the asset-light model and scale of $OSTK their CAPEX are beyond optimal and not capital intensive -- but can go super aggressive if they decide to take the physical store route. Street forecast $20m CAPEX for FY23 and it stays stagnant throughout FY25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1690167815549145088)  2023-08-12T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"While it's not great to have that much cash floating on the balance sheet since you're not putting that money into work. But -- I have a deep feeling $OSTK rationale are the following four above"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1690169098670637056)  2023-08-12T01:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@fear_munger @BedBathBeyond But if $OSTK competitors ( $W ) have physical stores in their pipelines I would be of concern. You can ever do so much organic growth with light-asset models like consolidate the fragmented market and/or digitalization footprint (i.e. augmented reality and etc)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1690614863108939776)  2023-08-13T06:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Here's a different street perspective on Wayfair ( $W ) latest earnings. "We remain hesitant on the sustainability of current top-line momentum (given weakening consumer backdrop and suppliers working through excess inventory)""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1692675974117351775)  2023-08-18T23:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It wasn't an exaggeration when I said street has more conviction of Wayfair ( $W ) growth pipelines than $OSTK. Implied upside they weighted to their clients is huge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693047140313165985)  2023-08-19T23:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lmfao. High prices of cocoa are bleeding the COGS of confectionery companies like Hershey ( $HSY ). With change in weather atmosphere via El Nino I expect downward pressure to persist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693522673455042670)  2023-08-21T07:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Just basic economics of scales -- when COGS (cocoa) are increasing it's hard to rationalize with an increase in chocolate bars and etc. Tough spot right now as you can drive demand away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693523973936721991)  2023-08-21T07:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


""We believe that $HSY will be able to take advantage of competitor supply chain issues. Keep in mind Halloween is a season with high level of daily replenishment." Surely -- there are other alternatives chocolate but would be great to see revenues ten-fold to offset the COGS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693525457344581691)  2023-08-21T07:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


""(most likely) another price increase in $HSY confectionery to be announced as costs continue to rise" Are these chocolate companies like Hershey not hedging their COGS with forward contracts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693526719230312650)  2023-08-21T07:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"JPM has Implied 16x EBITDA for $HSY If I can recall industry comps are trading at 13.6x LTM and forward-looking of 13.1x. Those median excludes capitalized leases so Hershey would likely be trading around 14-15x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693528014997577907)  2023-08-21T07:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Even at those EBITDA multiples in-conjunction rising compression of gross profits I would be conformable with 10-11x EBITDA in my sources and uses. If we were to acquire for takeover $HSY is trading below VWAP too -- so the discount conviction is there in this industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1693529836525101496)  2023-08-21T07:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"That is a more sensible growth rate for $OSTK I would also forecast the same if I was back at Credit Suisse. Overstock literally had negative revenue growth YoY since Q2-22 with FY22 coming at negative -30% Previous quarter was negative -20% revenue growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694162416085663792)  2023-08-23T01:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"More from street after investor day of Wayfair ( $W ) "Based on our understanding not only has supplier advertising grown at a 40% CAGR since [----] to 1.00% of revenue in 2023E from 0.33% of revenue in [----] W's suppliers and assortment have both more than doubled since 2019""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694454534742089808)  2023-08-23T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


""$114 PT following Wayfair's first Investor Day which laid out the framework for a highly compelling long-term growth outlook that has potential to make Wayfair the strongest EBITDA CAGR name in our coverage over next [--] years" Lmfao -- now compressed $W OPEX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694458862919901536)  2023-08-23T21:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lmfao their forecast on $W revenue growth for FY23 is 0% -- but improved gross profit and EBITDA. Taking trolling to a new level with a huge price-target and strong conviction but questionable growth rates forecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694460594580283632)  2023-08-23T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AssetKeen @treesandquiet @BedBathBeyond @Readytogo1231 @G4000Sean Most are behind paywalls if you want website traffic data for $OSTK. We used eMarketer at Credit Suisse but google trends works fine -- I used that back at Goldman Sachs for $TGT coverage. Also -- your analysis could be skewed if you only want website there's app traffic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694857540285403631)  2023-08-24T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen @treesandquiet @BedBathBeyond @Readytogo1231 @G4000Sean See what available with Similarweb for $OSTK RBC used that as traffic trend for $TGT. Not sure if you have to pay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694866675664093553)  2023-08-25T00:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"JPM has $CVNA WACC of 13.5% in their DCF model more realistic discount rate vs. Piper. Also LGTR seems a-bit too optimistic of 7.5%. I'm lazy to load up terminal -- but I wondered what's P/TBV on an LTM and forward-basis rather than using an EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694960850459873760)  2023-08-25T06:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Piper had their DCF Model for $CVNA at 16% WACC From a modelling perspective that's way too much vs industry median like $KMX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1694961093524050303)  2023-08-25T06:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In terms of delinquencies the 60+ day delinquency rate for prime loans showed a sequential uptick of +1 bps reaching 0.49% in the latest reported data for June. An increase of +8 basis points when compared YoY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695591375419605010)  2023-08-27T00:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In terms of loss rates for $KMX & $CVNA the prime net loss rate saw a sequential rise of +16 bps reaching 0.48% in June. This reflected a YoY increase of +19 bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695591635818819744)  2023-08-27T00:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This sequential uptick aligns with the customary seasonal patterns observed in auto loan ABS performance where losses tend to escalate as the industry companies like $CVNA and $KMX moves beyond the tax refund season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695591814529691822)  2023-08-27T00:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"S&P highlights that the deterioration in the subprime category spans across various segments not limited to deep subprime. Performance decline is attributed to the adverse impact of inflation on individuals with lower incomes. Credit looking tight with $KMX and $CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695592322845868542)  2023-08-27T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"But I think -- the phenomenon of "credit score inflation" is as a factor contributing to the heightened losses within $KMX CAF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695592681190351246)  2023-08-27T00:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I mean just look at this -- $KMX trend of deterioration persists in the monthly securitization data for CAF. When looking at a YoY comparison the delinquency rate at the portfolio level saw a rise of +45 bps and the cumulative net loss rate increased by +9 bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695593306405896370)  2023-08-27T00:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gungs001 Yeah the forward P/E for $KMX is crazy. JPM released a deck that contains 285-pages regarding the industry with $CVNA. They had some interesting take with auto-financing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695624387310096542)  2023-08-27T02:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gungs001 Suck to own a car-loan in these times. JPM said "Auto credit is tightening amidst rising rate it is still early to get concerned on auto lending crisis with $KMX & $CVNA; while auto loan delinquencies have trended higher in past few months they still remain below [----] levels""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695625101319012476)  2023-08-27T02:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gungs001 This one is quite intriguing $CVNA & $KMX has different accounting approach around Auto ABS. Quite useful since you usually hear different accounting methods for D&A (i.e. straight-line and etc). But not securities like ABS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695626085147488396)  2023-08-27T02:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gungs001 $CVNA Auto ABS accounting method:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695626254182183161)  2023-08-27T02:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@gungs001 $KMX Auto ABS accounting method:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695626369785573661)  2023-08-27T02:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gungs001 Too bad we don't have any appetite -- but markets are so fragmented can easily consolidate $CVNA into $KMX Or any other small-bolts. Would have to use forwards of P/TBV instead of P/E if anyone wish to acquire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1695628838812999742)  2023-08-27T02:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@erswear What's more crazy is the drop in origination from $CVNA $KMX and any other used-car dealers. They are writing less car-loans but not a surprised since the fixed/float interest you need to pay back on-top of your principal -- will cost a liver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1696387081155871176)  2023-08-29T04:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Haven't share this street yet but Truist was impressed after investors and placed Wayfair ( $W ) price-target at $96. "We are currently projecting that W will achieve 10% adj. EBITDA margins in FY29 gradually improving by 1-2 ppts per year.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1696420914882338821)  2023-08-29T07:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BenRabizadeh Their $OSTK report can be found on their website: I just open up terminal and read it from there. https://www.argusresearch.com https://www.argusresearch.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1696844581776785544)  2023-08-30T11:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bonefish4 @TrumanCooper @fear_munger @AssetKeen Playing the devil advocates here with $OSTK how much of that app traffic is translated to actual sales % I used to cover $TGT back at Goldmans and I would find online traffic being abnormal vs foot traffic -- yet e-commerce sales are poorly painted vs SSS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697417355184493021)  2023-09-01T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bonefish4 @TrumanCooper @fear_munger @AssetKeen I can tell you that app traffics vs foot-traffic isn't comparable app is more skewed and present not a sound estimates. Just glance at $TGT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697417883264135345)  2023-09-01T01:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@bonefish4 @TrumanCooper @fear_munger @AssetKeen There's too many outlier with app ranking as a thesis since downloads can increase how far the app can move above the ladder. How often marketing (i.e. email discount holiday sales and etc) is done with $OSTK is a proper measure for % of sales"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697421351257284970)  2023-09-01T01:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen @TrumanCooper @fear_munger @bonefish4 We acquired Neighborly as a platform asset and scoping out homeware industries like $BBBY $OSTK $W and the list goes on -- mainly important to understand households trend and potentially -- rollup acquisition or carve-out targets for our portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697427623289463096)  2023-09-01T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AssetKeen $W are compressing both COGS & OPEX lines. During their investors day they announced breakeven of EBITDA. https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1691979617245220985 Finally had time to watch $W investor day -- it's quite impressive and explains why street stance on Wayfair are bullish. Physical store to be opened in Spring [----] but it won't be your regular homeware store like $BBBYQ. On top of the icing -- mgmt guidance of EBITDA https://t.co/2my9RWFMOW https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1691979617245220985 Finally had time to watch $W investor day -- it's quite impressive and explains why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697796897757634784)  2023-09-02T02:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen Since EBITDA multiples the only thing we look when acquiring business like $OSTK or $W street would have a higher conviction if: EBITDA Revenue. Because -- you can have amazing growth in revenue but if you can't condensed COGS or OPEX -- then revenue growth is futile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697802484176314785)  2023-09-02T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AssetKeen This is an great example: $OSTK has massive surplus of cash on balance. However 1). FCF previous quarter of Q2 came in at negative -$25m so it wiped Q1 FCF. For FY22 FCF came in a negative -$44m 2). Latest quarter of Q2 presented negative -118m NPAT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697804653466096061)  2023-09-02T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen $OSTK cont. 3). Latest quarter of Q2 has shown massive compression of EBITDA with mgmt reiterating further with $BBBYQ branding. I think you get the gist -- you can have massive amount of cash floating but if your bottom lines (EBITDA NPAT and etc) are not doing well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697805179251524003)  2023-09-02T02:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen You will eventually end up cash-burning that amount from the balance sheet which is a concern for $OSTK from street. However $W remains to be resilient with EBITDA & NPAT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697805442251141488)  2023-09-02T02:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetKeen This has happened with $W in their previous fiscal with cash-burn but seems like this year -- they took that lesson and improved it. Hence massive jump in EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697807018751652170)  2023-09-02T03:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"KKR's [----] Diversity Insights Symposium will be hosted Friday November 3rd Calling all students -- we're hosting insight into KKR and our culture at NY office. Spots are limited very end of the session -- opportunity to network with our peers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697871657506152728)  2023-09-02T07:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This will be an awesome opportunity for students wanting to make a career in private equity or learn more about other division. We're ranked #2 PE firm in the world and KKR has a diverse pipeline of mandates to foster M&A experience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697872482060157206)  2023-09-02T07:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@fear_munger @WmMcKinley25 @AssetKeen @BedBathBeyond " $W on the other hand" Lmfao EBITDA margin that was glided at investors presentation makes you pondered why street are bullish over that instead of $OSTK. Also recovered quite well this week from $65 -- $72. I would bet on EBITDA over revenue or carrying interest anyday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1697909834245689437)  2023-09-02T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Crazy how LIFO can shine in these macro-backdrop still blow my mind with Walmart ( $WMT ) massive recovery. "Walmart U.S. GPM expanded [--] bps reflecting markdown recapture and better supply chain costs""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1698101552983203974)  2023-09-02T22:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"c.9.2% international revenue Paints that $WMT only has monopolization power within U.S but still a huge improve of market-share gain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1698102865280340008)  2023-09-02T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bloat inventories are something to considered for $W massive risk from physical stores -- both $TGT & $WMT had issues around inventory management. Constant sales promotion is needed to rotate items on the sales floor to keep churn rates low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1698105768174817682)  2023-09-02T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@fear_munger @pawn_sauce @WmMcKinley25 @AssetKeen @BedBathBeyond @oxdecember If you go back to $W investors presentation they crushed the EBITDA guidance. Wayfair mgmt also expects mid-teen FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1698167600348598273)  2023-09-03T02:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@binanceriskmgmt @fear_munger @pawn_sauce @WmMcKinley25 @AssetKeen @BedBathBeyond @oxdecember Who said anything about "healthy" Lmfao. Comparing $W to those other business you listed are not apples to apples from a industry lens. As you now would need to look at SSS across all stores which Wayfair doesn't have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699123976403050608)  2023-09-05T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@binanceriskmgmt @fear_munger @pawn_sauce @WmMcKinley25 @AssetKeen @BedBathBeyond @oxdecember Also -- because beauty products are not longevity as in they have a shelves expiration date. The inventory management would be FIFO rather than LIFO as with $OSTK & $W Huge dynamics of delta between the companies COGS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699125548986015929)  2023-09-05T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@binanceriskmgmt @fear_munger @pawn_sauce @WmMcKinley25 @AssetKeen @BedBathBeyond @oxdecember $W shouldn't trade like $JWN considering its operating on a asset-light model. There's no capitalized leases. You would only comp it up once those starts appearing in the balance sheet as EV would be inflated -- on an EBITDA multiple-baiss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699126227318288592)  2023-09-05T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Great feeling that once Cocoa prices normalized street would be monitoring Hershey ( $HSY ) closely. Confectionery companies have always been an good investment PE shops have it on their radar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699318487062319127)  2023-09-06T07:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What weird is -- I expected $HSY or any other chocolate companies to have forward contracts on their COGS as a hedge. I was dealing with a buy-side mandate couple years ago they were flooded with derivatives contracts on the raw material"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699320630448169315)  2023-09-06T07:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Maybe I should just post this equity research to put some sense in those measuring $OSTK traffic since $BBBYQ acquisition -- like they are solving a DaVinci code"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699484742457123304)  2023-09-06T18:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Quite hard to call the bottom for Hershey ( $HSY ) cocoa prices are slowing down -- yet haven't start normalizing. One thing to consider is -- there's a lag between cocoa prices and what farmers are actually charging it's similar to private vs. public valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699689204224278575)  2023-09-07T07:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you can't hedge the COGS you pass on that cost through consumers. But -- it's a double-edged sword. $HSY retains its margin but demand will lessen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699690151210058144)  2023-09-07T07:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Imagine if you had to privatize $HSY you would need a lockbox mechanism as a post-merger safeguard. Attractive multiple too but not worth the cost -- unless you had the entire supply chain on a vertically-integrated model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1699690836752261389)  2023-09-07T07:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Street consensus on Overstock ( $OSTK ) revenue for the upcoming Q3 is $397m (-13% YoY). Which is a negative mid-teen. Bank of America has lowered price-target from $39 to $24 too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700301031249518877)  2023-09-09T00:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Reconciliation of my back of the envelope on $OSTK COGS. Pretty much aligns of $325m COGS for upcoming Q3 previous Q2 actual were $327m. Rationale forecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700312357824839922)  2023-09-09T00:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Such an interesting read from JPM regarding price comparison of same basket of goods without sales/members discount. $WMT has been quite pricey vs. its peers ( $ACI $KR $SFM and $TGT ). "big dog in the industry is showing little sign of getting more aggressive on pricing.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700784978731397206)  2023-09-10T08:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"During the past year $KR and $WMT experienced the most significant increases in their food prices while $TGT saw the smallest price hike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700785465039995350)  2023-09-10T08:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Perishable product prices increased for the majority of $WMT $TGT $KR $SFM $ACI and $KR while non-perishable items showed a continued decline in price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700786450449711276)  2023-09-10T08:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In regards to the pricing for non-perishable goods -- I believe this pricing trend is explained by with only a few shelf-stable packaged food companies have implemented additional pricing adjustments recently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700786972330271061)  2023-09-10T08:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Looks like shopping at $TGT is much cheaper. Anyways looking back at JPM equity research on Target. Lmfao. With student loans coming due JPM see earnings revisions headwinds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700790436074520788)  2023-09-10T08:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Seems like that's the next marco-trend. Basically compile a universe of all stocks that has a correlation with U.S. student loans repayments. There are some listed companies like $SOFI that will benefit the most from all this (you gotta finance those facility somehow)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1700791115363078477)  2023-09-10T08:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"" $OSTK is also marketing heavily to get early gains on $BBBYQ mind share online resulting in a sales & marketing expense rate of roughly 15%. As a result our Q3 EBITDA goes to -$29m from -$10m prior" Marketing has been increasing given the increased of OPEX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702431743226392955)  2023-09-14T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Woah -- $SJM acquired $TWNK for $5b you're looking at-least 100-200m clipped on the tickets for the bankers that ran the sell-side for this. There were rumors of $HSY in the auction weeks ago it would at-least c.4% EPS accretive right off the bat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702794877556375832)  2023-09-15T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There were a few big names $HSY had a potential interest in $TWNK but $MDLZ aligns best with their strategic and financial objectives. I don't think $GIS were bidding as it doesn't quite fit as seamlessly as the other two options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702796142713655562)  2023-09-15T21:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Re: Info on the $SJM acquisition of $TWNK https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/jm-smucker-nears-deal-buy-twinkies-owner-hostess-brands-wsj-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/jm-smucker-nears-deal-buy-twinkies-owner-hostess-brands-wsj-2023-09-11/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702797123924918652)  2023-09-15T21:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There's no way $SJM paid forward of 28x EBITDA for $TWNK They scoped it up super cheap given the implication of synergistic post-merger of the financials and offering of products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702798170705821806)  2023-09-15T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SJM is valued on an 7-10x EBITDA terminal basis. Even if you're looking forward it doesn't float mid-teen of 15-20x. Question now is -- how is the transaction structured for $TWNK mezzanine is my guess with a bunch of revolvers tranches"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702803389967679657)  2023-09-15T21:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Because $SJM doesn't even have the dry-powder to write a full cash-injection for $TWNK the split difference in EBITDA multiples also paints a dilutive transaction. Mezzanine to fund your sources and uses is a dangerous game in these high interest rates environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702804819294245027)  2023-09-15T22:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I can already imagine the covenants that are layered out for $SJM if they took that route to pick up $TWNK There's is no sweeteners on the debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702805412385575106)  2023-09-15T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For those that don't have access to bloomberg terminal here's one street equity research on $OSTK "balance sheet remains strong enough to fund $10-30 million of quarterly cash burn - the path back to profitability will likely be heavily reliant upon repeat behavior driven""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703866812159623603)  2023-09-18T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gill_jay99 @fear_munger @tZERO @AlderLaneEggs Don't believe it's an amateur forecast each individuals are adherent to their own views of $OSTK. One concern is the interpretation around EBITDA multiple -- we never use comps as a standalone valuation to find intrinsic value. The usage is "We acquire X at EBITDA multiple""  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703903035423142150)  2023-09-18T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gill_jay99 @fear_munger @tZERO @AlderLaneEggs I don't disagree with your points on $OSTK. Yes from a revenue perspective -- $BBBYQ IP transaction has been dilutive and could've exercised buybacks instead. But -- way too early to call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703969185045606429)  2023-09-19T03:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gill_jay99 @fear_munger @tZERO @AlderLaneEggs All I know is -- consumers are spending less it's not only $OSTK but other vertical platform like $ETSY. So -- hitting that FY23 mark you stated is going to be one massive obstacle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703973169210802269)  2023-09-19T03:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Not relevant but I pondered whether if anyone want to privatize $ETSY. Instead paying 18x forward EBITDA you pay c.20-30% premium to 90/180-days VWAP. You would also need a locked box for M&A post-completion so you paint an image ain't haircutting the valuation. Lmfao"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703979818856178028)  2023-09-19T03:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If we acquired $ETSY would need to compliment with PoS software acquisition akin to $SHOP. Synergistic-play only if you take it at 3x Revenue or ARR However both industry are super scary -- not fragmented with giants having monopolization of market-share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1703991475527467135)  2023-09-19T04:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Investor2b Leases are capitalized within the balance sheet per IFRS-16 won't appear within the OPEX side. Move $W inventory into LIFO and you have yourself a rigid management akin to $WMT. Street is all over the physical store idea"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1704571018952720798)  2023-09-20T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Wayfair ( $W ) has a price-target of $96. "$1.4B cost cuts initiated in late FY22/early FY23 have positioned W for sustainable profitability and adequate FCF generation to service its maturing debt in 2024." Conviction still holds strong for FY22 and beyond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1704959240031678957)  2023-09-21T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$W is capturing a huge market-share vs. $OSTK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1704960339346137439)  2023-09-21T20:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockridge__ But for your benefit and anyone else market-share data if you're interested. This is what we used at Goldman Sachs for homewares. $W holds 17.8% of market-share $OSTK holds 5.7% of market-share (this includes $BBBYQ portion)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705163502552551837)  2023-09-22T10:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockridge__ Key players benefiting from $BBBYQ demise. $W leads the industry while $OSTK plays an insignificant influences -- customers retention without Bed Bath catalogues doesn't increase their position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705165461305131202)  2023-09-22T10:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@John123Aj @HilsonValli Did you really just say darkpool when the entire float of $BBBYQ is 90% Lmfao. Share price has been oscillating these past months because -- it's retail vs retail. Institutional are not scrapping the bottom of the barrel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705360945508454731)  2023-09-22T23:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"To acquire $TWNK at 28x EBITDA isn't sound mid-teens of 17x seems reasonable with the body of evidence with comps and precedent transaction median. What's weird is -- doesn't look like they're funding through mezzanine -- but rather equity via $SJM. https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702798170705821806 There's no way $SJM paid forward of 28x EBITDA for $TWNK They scoped it up super cheap given the implication of synergistic post-merger of the financials and offering of products. https://t.co/FGATePncOc https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1702798170705821806 There's no way $SJM paid forward of 28x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705376651276935659)  2023-09-23T00:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Opposite of my opinion: JPM highlights that $SJM paying 17x EBITDA for $TWNK may be too high. Premium to VWAP is c.54% which made another attractive motion for management to consider the non-binding indicative offer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705377818673385543)  2023-09-23T00:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What they forget -- 17x EBITDA as based and 13.2x post-synergies for $TWNK Taking into account the swift recognition of cost synergies enhance $SJM's profit margins and earnings growth within the initial fiscal year thanks to TWNK's closely aligned channels and capabilities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/0xDecember/status/1705378648591880352)  2023-09-23T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing