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Kacper Piotr Kaminski @Kacper_PK_CH on x 3125 followers
Created: 2025-07-27 10:08:55 UTC
Weekly Markets Update – July 28, 2025 – Part X
Forex $USD, $EUR, $CAD, $GBP, $NZD, $AUD, $CHF, $JPY, $BTC
Active Trades
• Short $JPY vs $USD • Short $GBP vs $USD
Potential Trades
• Long $AUD vs $GBP or $EUR
The only real question in the forex market right now is the dollar. Has it found a bottom? Still unclear. If we get a weekly close above XX on the DXY, it could start trending higher. But if we close the week below 97.6, we may very well have XX as the next stop. It is important, as the dollar move has a broad impact, especially on commodities and risk assets.
What we can see right now is a pause in the dollar decline and sideways price action. The only major currency still in a short-term uptrend is the Swiss franc. One has already flipped to a downtrend, and that is the Japanese yen. The British pound is not far behind. I am currently short both.
For the dollar to really regain strength, it must be allowed to. Now there is outright verbal abuse of the Fed chair, strong political pressure, and possibly legal angles being used. That might lead to rate cuts that are more aggressive than expected. One thing in favor of dollar strength is the Treasury refilling the TGA account, which pulls liquidity out of the system. But it won’t matter if they issue all debt at the short end and start rebating tariffs revenue.
I am also watching the Australian dollar closely. Along with the Swiss franc, it is one of the only remaining currencies with positive trader positioning. If we are moving into a longer commodity bull market, AUD strength would make sense. Australia is in a strong geopolitical position, with both the United States and China having clear incentives to maintain stable relations. A long trade versus the euro or the pound looks attractive from that perspective.
And then there is Bitcoin. It has now broken above its previous all-time high. Unless we see weakness across broader markets, momentum traders will likely continue to chase it as far as their capital can take it.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics japanese yen australian dollar new zealand dollar british pound sterling euro united states dollar money currency pairs