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Astronomer @astronomer_zero on x 35K followers
Created: 2025-07-20 22:11:01 UTC
$BTC.D and alt season, a zoomed out look
XX% hit, indeed the top ✅ Do not be surprised if...
Alright, we pinpointed the very top of $BTC.D i.e. the start of alt season on the lower timeframes at 65%. And I'm here to remind you that this top formation so far, and the projected drop to XX% here, is only a micro move, on the backbone of the larger drop.
We created this idea to show you how time and price (= charts), is far more important than anything else, such as macro events, and I explained in depth why for that reason, waiting for QE is not a smart move.
Not to say it does not have an effect, it does. But it does not have a tradeable effect. It's only ever use for people to refer back to it in hindsight with "told you so", without actually being able to trade on it actionably, which is key in making money.
So on the back bone of the "do not put all eggs in the QE basket" idea, we drew out one last hurray to XX% as a top, where most people would expect XX% and safe to say, that sentiment indeed has risen at the time, and the top indeed formed.
The wait for QE was a very popular opinion on twitter and almost every third comment asked me about it.
And even now, I think the wait for QE to give alt strength is still looming, and therefore, there is still doubt on alt season, and some expectation lower despite everything I explained. We see those expectations both across twitter, but also in a wide array of private groups.
You will see things in there like "alt season hasn't started", "only $ETH/$XRP is moving". "Alt X or alt Y is still not doing well", and other comments.
So like I said before, alt season drives the top 10/30/50 alts, and forms good conditions for the all the alts below that. But every cycle, alts get left behind, some alts don't move, others pull a 100x in a few weeks... In other words, there is always an altcoin where someone can say something whether they were right or wrong.
So I think specific altcoin discussions of "my alt is doing well, no, most alts are not doing well" are silly and a major red flag IMO of someone just trying to look like he or she is right with cherry picking.
The only real indicator of altcoin season is $BTC.D as is, and that includes stable coins because it gives perfect padding of the sentiment (when $BTC.D rises, it rises strongly, when $BTC.D drops and alts are stable, liquidity flows into stables first, then alts). The rest is just hindsight bias fitting.
If you expect a $BTC.D top, you simply position into alts (the ones you think are great, with less risk being in $ETH, $XRP, $BNB, ... and all the others in the top 10), and more risk the lower you go. If you expect $BTC.D to drop further, that is favorable for alts to continue to go up.
"But Astro, $BTC.D reached XX% last cycle and the cycle before that, so it should reach it now"
Last cycle, it indeed reached 73%, and the cycle before that, it came off 99%. Which means our main thesis of increasing altcoin adoption still holds, and also suggests why I believe XX% is likely the top, indeed so far so good.
We are also at month XX on the cyclical top timing, which is in perfect alignment of a top expectation in the 48-month cycle.
And you know how I preach how time is more important than price. Anyone waiting for a specific level for a long time is IMO another major red flag of someone not knowing very well what they are doing especially in cyclical timeframe terms, in my humble opinion.
We all know what happened to the waiters for 100k $BTC in 2021, 12k $BTC in 2022. and I think, similarly now, the waiters for $BTC.D to 70%.
We'll see how it plays out, but what does not go up, must come down. It's month 39, right into our projected XX% level with a fierce rejection so far.
By month 48, it must have bottomed, which is not a spectacularly long time, so it must come down fast.
Which surprise surprise, is happening so far...
So good luck to the altcoin bears, $ETH already started its move, along with the top 10, and capital will only trickle into them further, just, in my humble opinion.
To be continued...
XXXXXX engagements
