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Wall St Engine @wallstengine on x 72.7K followers
Created: 2025-07-18 16:54:40 UTC
HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY FOLLOWING $NFLX Q2 EARNINGS:
Jefferies (Buy, PT: $1,500) "Q2 results were solid with XX% y/y FX-neutral revenue growth and a full-year operating income guide raise to XX% (from 29%). Most encouraging was UCAN revenue growth accelerating to XX% y/y from 9%, suggesting minimal churn from recent price hikes. We remain long-term bullish, seeing potential for 20%+ EPS growth over 3–5 years. Raise PT to $1,500."
UBS (Buy, PT: $1,495) "Q2 supports our conviction that Netflix is a secular winner. Revenues grew XX% y/y FXN, while OI rose 45%. Growth was driven by stronger-than-expected member adds late in Q2, higher pricing, and ad revenue. Q3 guidance calls for XX% FXN revenue growth and XX% OI growth. FY guidance also improved: revenue up 16–17% FXN (vs. 14–17% prior) and margins to XX% (from 29%). The outlook for 2026 starts strong with forecasted revenue growth of 13%+."
BofA Securities (Buy, PT: $1,490) "Netflix reported a strong Q2 and raised full-year guidance for both revenue and operating margin. Revenue grew XXXX% y/y (~17% FXN), driven by member growth, price increases, and ads. EPS, operating income, and free cash flow all exceeded expectations. Every region showed double-digit FXN growth, and UCAN accelerated to XX% y/y. While shares were flat post-earnings, we believe that reflects high expectations, not weakness."
Evercore ISI (Outperform, PT: $1,375) "Beat-and-raise quarter with FX, subscriber growth, and ad ramp driving upside. Revenue growth accelerated to XX% FXN, and op margin hit a record 34%. UCAN's growth rebound to XX% is key. Engagement disclosures show +1% hours watched, with diverse content consumption—no title accounts for more than X% of total view time. Full-year XX% OM guide looks conservative. Raise PT to $1,375."
Canaccord Genuity (Buy, PT: $1,525) "Q2 revenue slightly topped consensus; profitability was modestly above expectations, both metrics ahead of guidance. FX played a role, but internal subscriber adds and advertising also helped. UCAN rev accelerated ~5 pts q/q thanks to price changes. Ad business on track to double y/y. Q3 guidance implies modest revenue acceleration. Despite the after-hours stock dip, we see room for upside as engagement stabilizes and ads scale."
Rosenblatt (Buy, PT: $1,515) "Q2 revenue up XX% FXN, in line with guidance. Small beat came from FX. Engagement remains a concern — Netflix self-reported only X% Y/Y growth in hours watched for H1. Company expects better engagement in H2 on stronger content. Raise PT by $X to $XXXXX using 45x 2026E EPS, supported by a XX% EPS CAGR."
Oppenheimer (Outperform, PT: $1,425) "Subscriber growth reaccelerated late in Q2 and is expected to continue on the back of a strong H2 slate. Ad revenue expected to double in FY25. Q2 viewership only +1% y/y, but skewed content timing explains margin cadence. Raise revenue and EBIT estimates; repurchases and debt retirements also noted. Valuation assumes 35x 2027E EPS."
MoffettNathanson (Buy, PT: $1,400) "Raise PT to $XXXXX using 36x 2027E EPS. This implies a PEG ratio of 1.45, still below the S&P XXX. Maintain Buy rating, as Netflix’s long-term earnings growth supports premium valuation."
KeyBanc (Overweight, PT: $1,390) "Q2 was solid, driven by membership growth, pricing, and FX. Engagement may become a debate point, but Netflix's hit creation ability supports price and ad upside. Maintain PT of $XXXXX (35.1x 2027E P/E)."
Wolfe Research (Outperform, PT: $1,390) "Netflix’s scale, growth levers, and cash flow reinforce its leadership in long-form video. Still targeting 20%+ EPS CAGR. Our $XXXXX PT reflects 36x 2027E EPS, discounted to a 12-month horizon."
Guggenheim (Buy, PT: $1,400) "While investor enthusiasm is high, engagement metrics haven’t kept pace. Netflix's 1H25 viewership growth was flat despite subscriber increases. Confidence remains in content strategy, but key proof points needed in H2, especially around live events and ad growth."
Goldman Sachs (Neutral, PT: $1,310) "Key drivers going forward include execution on content, margin outperformance, and scaling the ad tier. FX helped Q2 results, and H2 operating leverage may surprise to the upside. Maintain Neutral with a slightly more confident outlook."
Loop Capital (Hold, PT: $1,150) "Q2 beat expectations, with FX, subscriber gains, and ad momentum helping. FY revenue outlook raised by $1B vs. our $500M estimate. Margin guide increased to 30%. Stock pulled back ~2% after-hours due to high expectations. Maintain Hold based on valuation."
Benchmark (Hold, PT: N/A) "Q2 beat on revenue and op income, but stock reaction muted due to elevated expectations and lackluster engagement. Revenue beat largely FX-driven. Member upside supports raised guidance, but content/viewing growth remains key to sustaining momentum."
Raymond James (Market Perform, PT: N/A) "Results modestly ahead, with strength across markets. Ads suite rollout is progressing, and content investment remains high. Stock fairly valued at ~40x P/E, so we maintain Market Perform."
KGI Securities (Neutral, PT: $1,350) JPMorgan (Neutral, PT: $1,300) Wells Fargo (Overweight, PT: $1,560)
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