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Amy @_SFTahoe on x 18.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-18 09:31:14 UTC
ELON MUSK IS RIGHT Tesla announced the FSD project in 2014, switched to Tesla Vision in 2021, and introduced end-to-end neural nets in 2023. Now, many are starting to admit Elon Musk is right:
♦️ Baidu’s founder talked to his executives about the need to ditch multiple sensors and switch to vision-only and end-to-end neural nets.
♦️ A Morgan Stanley analyst reported that a competitor said: “Annoyingly, Elon Musk was right.”
ELON MUSK IN 2021: “There's no question in my mind that with a pure vision solution, we can make a car that is dramatically safer than the average person. So -- but it is a hard problem because we are actually solving something quite fundamental about artificial intelligence, where we basically have to solve real-world vision AI. And we are. So -- and key to solving this is also having some massive data set. ” Elon Musk, TSLA Q1 2021 Earnings Call
TESLA’S SCALABLE CORE IDEA: Massive data + neural nets = generalizable AI.
♦️ Tesla’s FSD trains neural nets with massive datasets of videos to predict—and execute—driving actions; LLMs train on text to predict the next word. Both scale the same way: more compute, more data, more parameters/longer context windows, and more training runs.
♦️ Both LLMs and FSD rely on pattern recognition, end-to-end learning (no hand-coded rules), and scale with more data.
WINNER TAKES MOST As Tesla starts the process of massively scaling the Tesla RoboTaxi, competitors find themselves in a challenging place: clunky multiple sensors, sensor fusion, modular stacks, rules-based systems, and high-definition maps can’t scale like Tesla’s FSD. It won’t be as easy as just adding more video, more compute, and more training runs to achieve a generalizable worldwide solution.
In the race to capture the RoboTaxi market, Tesla can win before others even get off the starting line. A sentiment echoed by Baidu’s Robin Li:
"The key decision-making in the race against time…If we can't seize the market before Tesla's pure visual route matures, Baidu may have no chance."
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