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Created: 2025-07-11 14:56:16 UTC
🔮 Oracle Insight — Powell’s July Press Conference Lexicon (snapshot XX Jul 2025 – event date XX Jul 2025)
No single bucket scores above XX % except a routine “Good afternoon” greeting and heavy “inflation” usage. All other terms land in the low-to-mid-probability range, making a “spray-and-pray” ballot sub-optimal.
Key drivers •Core PCE still above X % YoY ⇒ inflation dominates narrative. •Yield-curve inversion and softer payrolls keep employment questions alive. •Tariff language hinges on White-House trade headlines within the press-cycle. •Pandemic references fading; only resurfaces when explaining base-effects.
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Positioning tip
Mark the ballot for “Good afternoon” and “Inflation XX +” with high conviction; add “Inflation XX +” and “Downbeat tone” as smaller-size overlays. Skip the rest unless late-breaking trade or China news surfaces.
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Rationale
•Inflation XX + mentions – XX % probability. Historically, when core CPI sits above X %, Powell says “inflation” about 44–48 times across his statement and Q&A.
•Inflation XX + mentions – XX %. Reaches this level only if the Q&A runs long and reporters circle back to price stability several times.
•Inflation XX + mentions – XX %. Topped sixty only twice (March 2022 and June 2024) during peak-shock moments.
•Tariff XX + mentions – XX %. Trade questions stay sparse unless a fresh tariff headline breaks within XX h of the meeting.
•Employment / unemployment XX + mentions – XX %. Labour-market focus is moderate; the March 2025 press conference logged nineteen mentions.
•“Uncertainty” X + mentions – XX %. Powell averages XXX uses over the last eight pressers; seven requires a particularly cautious tone.
•Says “Good afternoon” – XX %. His standard opening greeting—used in ten of the past eleven conferences.
•Uses a downbeat tone – XX %. Soft leading indicators suggest he will lean on “data-dependent, downside risks” language.
•Mentions China – XX %. Usually surfaces only when reporters ask about tariffs or supply-chain pressure.
•Uses the word “obvious” – XX %. Rare phrasing—just three instances across twenty conferences.
•Says “spike” – XX %. Employed when describing energy or shelter price volatility; context dependent.
•Mentions “recession” – XX %. Powell tends to avoid the word, favouring “slowdown.”
•References the “pandemic” – XX %. Usage has faded; March 2025 contained two mentions, May 2025 none.
Prediction markets are speculative; deploy capital at own risk. Next sensor cue: Fed blackout lift + media embargo packet drop (28 Jul 20:00 ET).
XXX engagements
