[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
David Shapiro ⏩ @DaveShapi on x 44.1K followers
Created: 2025-04-26 17:53:48 UTC
Guys I have bad news.
Extraordinarily bad news.
We have XX to XX years before we get to full Post-Labor Economics.
The bottleneck isn't intelligence, or even robotics.
It's economic scale.
We ran all the numbers, and ran them again.
The primary question: "how long does it take to build a billion humanoid robots?"
Even if we double production capacity every X years, it takes two decades.
But there are multiple constraints: rare earth metals for batteries, actuators, and sensors are the biggest one by far.
Next is economies of scale.
For comparison, it took XX years for the automobile to reach full saturation: 1900 to 1992. Now, we had a car culture by the 1950s... But that's still five decades and two industrial wars worth of innovation.
We did everything we could to speed it up: pneumatic hybrid robots are a no go. Air tanks need to be swapped every 20-30 minutes.
The ONE saving grace might be exotic actuators like electropolymer muscles. Right now, they just aren't strong enough. BUT, if we can make them stronger and cheaper, our petrochemical industrial base could accelerate the deployment of humanoid robots by a decade or two.
So what does this mean?
We'll hit AGI and ASI long before we can automate away all human labor. We might even hit the Singularity before we can scale up enough robots to replace all jobs.
Here's my current timeline:
2025 to 2030: Collapse of knowledge work. The "KVM Rule" applies: any job you can do entirely with a keyboard, video, and mouse will be fully replaced.
2030 to 2040: Droid scaling up starts to really make a dent.
2040 to 2060: We'll finally reach global labor substitution with robots.
What does this mean? There are a few jobs that are going to stick around for the foreseeable future:
X. Skilled labor. Robots will be able to do your job as a mechanic or welder very soon. However, there simply won't be enough robots to go around.
X. High Accountability Jobs: doctors, lawyers, comptrollers, financial advisors - all jobs that require license, insurance, and accountability. Also called statutory jobs (law requires a human or does not contemplate non-human labor)
X. Meaning Jobs: authenticity and sentimental premium. Celebrities, performers, influencers, athletes, priests, philosophers, and some educators, caretakers, etc
X. Complex Relationship Jobs: politicians, diplomats, negotiators, governance, account executive.
X. Capitalists. The ownership class will be fine. Always is.
So what can you do?
Upskill and reskill. Join the meaning economy or get into skilled trades. All you smart desk jockeys would make great HVAC techs, mechanics, linemen, and more. But just keep in mind you're going to have a lot of stiff competition.
There are a few silver linings to this news:
FIRST it means that we have longer to adapt to total economic upset. Yes, AI and robots will hypothetically be able to take all jobs within X years, but human bodies are still more abundant, more portable, and more energy efficient. This is a VERY deep moat.
SECOND it means that a Terminator style takeover is economically impossible. MIL-SPEC and NIST standards mean that ASI can't hack our hardware and even if we have a few AI bots, tanks and aircraft, humans win on sheer volume for many decades to come - more than long enough to solve alignment.
HOWEVER it means we'll have ordinary jobs for a lot longer than we'd like. Deployment will be uneven, so some economies will saturate with robots sooner than others.
BUT this gives PLE an avenue. Create ESOP and cooperatives that own a bunch of robots. That means we collectively buy, own, and operate robots for everything from construction to leasing to businesses, and we collect the rent. Or we tax the crap out of them.
What do you think? Can we figure out a faster way to ramp up humanoid robot production or are we doomed to skilled and unskilled blue collar work for the next generation?
XXXXXXX engagements
