@zoomyzoomm Zoomer

Elon Musk's algorithm changes on X (formerly Twitter) have sparked frustration among users, with many expressing disappointment and demotivation due to decreased visibility and engagement. Some users are considering canceling their premium subscriptions, citing the algorithm's favoring of "slop posts" from unverified accounts over high-quality content from verified ones. The changes have led to a significant decline in motivation for some users to post on the platform.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks finance #27 technology brands countries cryptocurrencies social networks automotive brands celebrities #1334 travel destinations #40 currencies

Social topic influence $pdd, china #1474, $baba #174, $bidu, baba, $jd #40, stocks #3135, $nvda, $goog #178, $pltr #522

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @grok @martinshkreli @elonmusk @zoomyzoomm @remindmeofthis @nikitabier @pandawatch88 @nietschecapital @altcap @compoundingirl @blondesnmoney @lloydjamesross @dalibali2 @openai @investornick @nataninvesting @dirtygreenpaper @deepseekai @optionsly @daveyjuice

Top assets mentioned Alibaba Group (BABA) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Metadium (META) 4 (FOUR) Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) AppLovin Corporation (APP) DLocal Limited (DLO) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) GitLab Inc. (GTLB) SuperWalk (GRND) Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) ZetaChain (ZETA) Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited (KC) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Sea Limited (SE) Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) Shopify Inc (SHOP) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Spotify Technology (SPOT) NuCypher (NU) Bitcoin (BTC) Kaspi.kz Joint Stock Company (KSPI) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Dash (DASH) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) Grab Holdings Limited Class A Ordinary Shares (GRAB) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) Datadog Inc (DDOG) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) Zscaler Inc (ZS) Toast, Inc. (TOST) Figma, Inc. (FIG) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"People complaining about Palantir $PLTR trading at NTM revenue multiple of 52x clearly havent seen Pro Medicus $PME. Yeah both are best in class with Rule of 40s [--]. But buying [--] months ago is VERY diff to today Lesson 1: dont short unless hedging or sized appropriately"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Lesson 2: when they say let your winners run they mean hold a stock you know is probs overvalued. It is literally insane to see a public tech stock trading back around [----] peak snowflake multiple of 100x NTM revenue. You never know how big bubbles can get"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Lesson 3: All investing breaks down into two things: topline growth and multiple expansion (Twin Engines - or the Davis double play). Investing when a stock is at 52x forward revenue is effectively saying youre gonna drive on one engine. Why unnecessarily handicap yourself"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Lesson 4: the risk is not in buying cheaper stocks that underperform but buying a $1 bill thats fundamentally worth $60 cents. You wouldnt buy a house for $2m knowing its really worth $1.5m. Thats instant wealth destruction. So why do it for equities trading T 50x Rev"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"For the tech investors among us that follow @altcaps logic (see his talk at connections last year) Tech Non-Tech bc it just outgrows and outearns non tech Tech cos: Have better topline growth Have less COGS (better margins) Have less reinvestment (less capex) So long tech"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@altcap TLDR: we want $QQQ $SPY bc well just get 20% CAGR vs 10% CAGR (assuming multiples dont compress). But most investors find one company like $TSLA or $PLTR and ape all into the stock. This is NOT smart. Like my screener I ran 2y ago I couldnt know $PLTR would outperform"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@altcap Youre better off buying [--] high NTM rev growth high margin tech companies (10% weighting) than going all in on one. You just cant know which ones will go up to a 50x multiple (like VC). So you long them all (within reason). Play the VC game in public markets"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@altcap Going all in on $PLTR or $TSLA is fine. But if you picked wrong youre seriously underperforming. Hedge your hubris (10 tech stocks). But not too much (we still want high quality tech shitco tech boomer cyclical/industrial trash in the $SPY)"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Chloe_948 @altcap Agree I love Dalios holy grail free lunch of diversification but always vomited at holding gold bonds commodities crypto (lol) or other shit assets bc theyre literally not compounding as fast as tech stocks. Where Ive landed is just hold high growth low correlation tech"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Hot take: $TSLA at 12x NTM Revenue is more egregious than $PLTR at 52x NTM Revenue. One is a c. Mid 30s FCF margin software company growing 20%+ off a low revenue base. One sells cars and has capex. lol"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"(Tbf both are overvalued but in [--] years time Im more likely to lose more money on $TSLA than $PLTR even at these vals). Lesson in there about understanding compounding revenue growth and the law of large numbers"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Congrats to all the $APP holders this year. But don't believe anyone who said they "knew" it would 40x from the lows. A Faux Pas - this co also came up on my screener 2y ago & was dirt cheap. I thought the company was trash SaaS so didn't look deeper (to my dismay)"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Fast forward [--] years and it's now forecasted to grow revenue at 25% in the NTM with 40-45% FCF margins. The multiple expanded from 2x NTM Revenue to 20x (like $PLTR going from 5x to 50x NTM revenue). TLDR: NOBODY could have predicted what the stock did (not even ER analysts)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"I had too much ego and thought the ONE stock I picked from the screener would outperform the other screener stocks (e.g $PLTR $APP). This decision to concentrate rather than diversify into cheap tech stocks literally cost me $1m ($500k 10% weight = $50k that 10x'd = $500k x 2)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"As much as I love calculating rule of 40s rule of X NTM EV/Revenue growth adjusted valuations (cc @jaminball for his amazing work every week at @ Clouded Judgment) the big lesson is: Wall street equity research consensus #'s chronically undershoot top quintile (e.g. NVDA)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Lesson 2: I reiterate my previous thread lesson - DIVERSIFY across tech. You don't need 20+ or [---] names (although mathematically [--] is the holy grail target). But don't be like me and literally see the stocks on your screener and NOT buy (hedge your own hubris)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Gotta H/T to the OGs who are clearly smarter than me and actually sized into these names at the lows (@HaydenCapital @GHadjia etc.) - these guys are proper fundies that recognise the value of portfolio management/risk management. (Coincidenally they're both long $PDD like me)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Lesson 5: Ride your winners but don't overstay. If multiple expansion has happened the juice has been squeezed. You're fighting with one hand behind your back (you won't get more multiple expansion in $PLTR). The obvious move is to take the W and reinvest in a fresh orange"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Most people don't really understand what it means to trade at [--] [--] 50x NTM Rev. To hammer home the point: $NOW: $220b EV vs $13b NTM Rev $PLTR: $180b EV vs $3.3b NTM Rev () $APP: $120b EV vs $5.4b NTM Rev $PDD: $95b EV vs $67b NTM Rev () $CRWD $87b EV vs $4.5b NTM Rev"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"While it's easy to hand wave and say "ah yes $PLTR is at 55x NTM Rev" or " $CRWD at 19x NTM REV is fair value" when you stack rev next to EV the numbers start to look comical. To paraphrase Buffett "Price is what you pay value (or rev) is what you get.""
X Link 2024-12-29T23:41Z 12.6K followers, [---] engagements

"I'll never short a stock. But if I had to do it: Long $KWEB / Short $QQQ or Short Deeply Liquid Bubble US Tech ( $TSLA $PLTR $APP $AAPL $AVGO) into [----] is probably the pair trade of the century. (H/T @dalibali2 hope it works this year lol 5th time's the charm)"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"To all holders of $NVDA $AVGO $MRVL $ARM $ASML $TSMC $ANET $AMD $AMAT Semiconductors are cyclical. That's it. That's the tweet. H/T @benedictevans (everyone's fave tech futurist with some great charts)"
X Link 2024-12-30T00:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Daily reminder to myself to not buy non-tech companies masquerading as tech companies or trading at tech valuations $TSLA $CELH $TMDX $AXON $WING When your business generates 80%+ revenue from non-tech non-SaaS margin products it doesn't deserve a tech multiple"
X Link 2024-12-30T00:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"People fundamentally misunderstand $PDD's business model. It's not an e-commerce company. It's an online advertising company. People only run ads on google and facebook to sell products. Temu/Pinduoduo users WANT to buy something so the ROI for advertisers is much higher"
X Link 2024-12-30T00:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Using take rates of 10-15% as a proxy for their revenue isn't the right way to think about it. They intentionally don't clip the ticket on sales to keep costs low (cc. Nick Sleep's Scale Economies Shared business model). They make up the lost revenue through Google-style ads"
X Link 2024-12-30T00:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Bytedance did $73b in H1 [----] ($146b run rate [----] rev). Amazon ads did $14b in Q3 [--] ($56b run rate [----] rev). PDD did $7b in online marketing rev in Q3 [--] ($28b run rate). Hot take: Google's auction-style advertising for E-Commerce platforms becomes the next "thing""
X Link 2024-12-30T01:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Why advertise on Youtube or FB or Google when you can auction at the point of sale (kinda like paying for shelf space in a supermarket but it's digital). You extract top dollar from last marginal buyer (auction style overbidding). Higher ROI for vendors. Seems obvious"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"A lot of people say $AMZN is cheap on valuation + how it's gone up relatively less than other big tech. I think $AMZN val is justified. Thesis: their core business is under attack from Shein + Temu and there's literally no reason why customers would pay more for the same stuff"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"It quite literally is manufactured and shipped from the same place (China - wow shock). There's nothing different about the product. The $AMZN UI sucks. When times get tough price becomes the only variable and customers downshift spending. Long $PDD. Short $AMZN $WMT $TGT"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"If youre a guy in your early 20s buy China Tech. Go into debt if you have to (I literally have). If @DavidTepper5 can put $2.5 billion into $KWEB $BABA $JD $FXI $BIDU ($700m into $PDD / $Temu alone) You can put in [--] bucks lol"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Hot take: most Zoomers have [--] years to make as much equity capital from their jobs as possible before the entire game is over. If youre not wealthy by [----] AGI will make it hard to build wealth. No fucking chance UBI works with how shit governments are around the globe"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Unless your parents are rich or you win the lottery (or hit $PLTR $APP etc) you wont be able to build any semblance of financial independence. Save most of your income. Go turbo long equities. Pick the right ones. Pray you hit $1-3m before AGI kicks in"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"For the zoomers out there STOP leveraging 5-20x and buying housing/real estate. Taking out a million dollar mortgage at 6% for property that has 3% gross yields is the fastest way to destroy wealth. Past =/= future. What worked for our parents wont work for us"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Dont be a degenerate and buy crypto (aka $BTC $ETH) either. Just stick to equities. Thats the only way to move up these days"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Never understood why the concept of Lifecycle investing (created by @IanAyles @BarryNalebuff) never took off. So sound and can quite literally change peoples lives. If youre a zoomer read up on it. Its going to be the difference between retiring poor or retiring wealthy"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"While it makes sense to build out capex under the "winner takes all" AI premise like 80% of all this spend at $AMZN $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG is not going to return above cost of capital. You pick right great. You pick wrong expect -50% multiple compression"
X Link 2024-12-30T01:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Hot take: if $NVDA can 10x their revenue in a few years off selling GPUs they can experience sequential negative revenue growth in the medium term. There are only so many GPUs companies need (or have the budgets to spend). FY [--] will see some serious cost cutting"
X Link 2024-12-30T02:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Guess the Ticker: Tech Co $1T+ TAM 25% NTM Revenue Growth 30% NTM FCF Margins Rule of [--] of 55% 1.4x NTM EV/REV 9x NTM P/E 5x EV/EBITDA 4x EV/FCF"
X Link 2024-12-30T02:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Hint: It's not $PLTR $TSLA $APP or $NVDA"
X Link 2024-12-30T02:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"For posterity sake my ideal portfolio would be 10% weighting into each of these DHQs (H/T @markmahaney): Ticker + Current Stock Price: EM: $FOUR - $105 $STNE - $8 $NU - $10 $DLO - $12 $PDD - $97 $KSPI - $97 DM: $EVO - $853 $UBER - $61 $YOU - [--] $IBTA - 66"
X Link 2024-12-30T03:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Agree - SBC is an actual crime for Public SaaS Co's Makes me admire companies like $ADYEN ($ADYEY) that don't fuck w/ SBC - honestly such a GOAT company Bought in at IPO on day [--] and sold waaaay too early during 2020/21 (love the company but as always valuation traps me)"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"So many $BABA and $JD lovers on Fintwit I literally don't understand how you can underwrite these two companies when $PDD exists solely to eat their lunch. Yeah you get SOTP and cloud etc. etc. But one company is growting 44% YoY while the others are basically 0% growth"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"On basically every metric possible $PDD is cheaper than $BABA and $JD. Oh and $PDD is forecast to grow 25% in NTM. $BABA and $JD are high single digit growth if they're lucky. Oh and $PDD has 30% FCF margins. $BABA and $JD are barely mid teens FCF. Make it make sense"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"There are very few tech companies with truly global TAMs. Two notable tech co's: Bytedance (running Douyin in China and TikTok in RoW) PDD (Pinduoduo in China + Temu in RoW) Why is this important Small TAM limits ceiling on stocks. This is why I can't buy $MELI $GRAB etc"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"When you only operate in one country or region your pond just isn't large enough. Sure - you can expand. But many don't succeed. Very few are able to scale the same tech/products across markets. Why buy one stock w/ a $500b TAM When you can buy another with $2T TAM"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The larger the TAM the longer the runway. Anyone that wants truly long run returns needs companies that operate in the two largest global market - The USA AND CHINA. Limiting yourself to one is just stupid. Your equity capital demands the biggest TAM possible"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"There are four tech companies with: [----] Topline growth 25% [----] FCF margins 32% One of them is not like the others lol"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Admittedly cheap for a reason haha Then again is this $APP in [----] at 2x NTM Rev or $PLTR at 5x NTM Rev Only time will tell"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"It's even worse bc $PDD refuses to do buybacks with their $40B+ of cash on the balance sheet So the EV/FCF is even lower than MC/FCF of 6.3x More like 4.2x NTM EV/FCF which is literally insane Somehow Shitco Bumble $BMBL is trading at a higher val than $PDD"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital $APP is on there topline forecast just barely not enough (as is $PLTR) Was being a bit cheeky cutting it off at 25% (it would've shown up had i set topline growth minimum at 22%)"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Just lol'd internally - still can't believe $PLTR is at 55.2x NTM EV/Revenue lmfao Anyone holding now is basically begging to lose half their NW by holding it into 2025"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Better than holding $MSTR or $MSTX at least hahahah As much as it's trading at a comedic valuation it's a beast company (hence why you can never short it) $MSTR and crypto related stuff on the other hand is literally screaming short rn"
X Link 2024-12-30T05:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Shot vs Chaser. Just bc a company gets traction does NOT mean it's a good investment"
X Link 2024-12-30T05:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$MTCH $BMBL getting decimated post-COVID. $GRND the only one on a tear (but it's a fundamentally better company with 20% NTM Topline Growth & 40% FCF Margins)"
X Link 2024-12-30T05:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Spot the outlier Chart from @dealroomco $PDD"
X Link 2024-12-30T07:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet [---] billion people and 80% of global growth comes from it Also - its one of the places to avoid the bubble that is the US equity markets"
X Link 2024-12-30T09:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet Long China Short US for the rest of the decade is likely to drastically outperform (until India catches up & opens up their capital markets)"
X Link 2024-12-30T09:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"This is why your #1 most important goal in life pre-AGI is to amass as much equity capital as you can before the game is up Nobody is coming to save you. The rich only get richer. The rich are also smart enough to move countries and avoid 99% wealth taxes. So important. 🚨THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER AND THE POOR ARE GETTING POORER🚨 The top 1% own 50% of all stocks and mutual fund shares in the US. The bottom 50% own just 1% of equities. Meanwhile the S&P [---] has been up 85% since Jan [----] while prices by 23% with many things rising over 50% https://t.co/pmean5yxtF 🚨THE RICH ARE GETTING"
X Link 2024-12-30T09:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Somehow $PDD is trading roughly the same price as it was [--] year ago when $Temu didnt exist. $PDD was able to successfully spin up a $50b GMV run rate E-Commerce competitor to $AMZN $MELI etc with their excess FCF and grew their TAM from just China E-Comm to global E-Comm (4T)"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Anyone can spend $2b on $META ads but not many can grow to 500b downloads and #1 on App Store for [--] years running. I cant see a world where Pinduoduo isnt winning in China with poor people becoming less poor I also cant see a world where Temu doesnt grow faster than $AMZN"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Give me another company thats been able to double their TAM ($2b China alone E-comm - $4b+ global e-comm) with a few billion dollars. Theres a reason $PDD stopped publishing gmv data. They dont want to show how disgusting their monopoly is"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"E-commerce is inherently a network effect business. If you get the most volume (aka buyers) sellers will pick your platform over others. Likewise for cheapest prices and most options - buyers will flock to these platforms. What is misunderstood is mindshare"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$AMZN is not considered cheap. Clearly. People value convenience. $Temu is considered cheap. Thats the difference. Eventually customers downshift when they realise most things are commodities (ex luxury goods). Also Temu is crack for e-commerce like TikTok is"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Ironically E-commerce is one of the few areas that are unlikely to get disrupted by AI. Everyone needs to buy stuff. While AI assistants might help you buy the products still need to get made and shipped somewhere. AI cant outsource this. So incumbents like $Temu win"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Hard to say but Equity Research analysts are putting a 13x P/E multiple on next years earnings to get it to $160. My thesis is if a company grows topline 30% assuming multiple holds you just collect topline growth. How long could $PDD and $Temu keep growing"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital How longs a piece of string lol For me they do $50b revenue (half from Pinduoduo ad revenue like Google style auctions and half from Temu/grocery) Not hard to imagine $500b revenue by [----] if: USA craters and consumers downshift China fights inflation w/ helicopter $$$"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"There are very few mega caps that can grow at above average rates. $NVDA grew 100%+ for [----] and [----]. Its likely to grow 60% for [----]. The only other mega cap I can think of is $PDD that grew 80%+ in [----] and will do 60% in [----]. Equity analysts forecast 25% in 2025"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"None of these analysts are factoring (or have updated their models) for the fiscal (aka helicopter money on poor Chinese cities) and monetary stimulus (dropping fed funds rates equivalents) in [----]. If this happens c what happens to the 25% [----] growth projection Goes up"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"As many analysts were wrong forecasting $NVDA pre- @ChatGPTapp and @OpenAI many are drastically undershooting $PDDs [----] rev growth"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ChatGPTapp @OpenAI $PDD slightly missed the last two earnings reports. This gives an excuse for analysts to chop their topline forecasts. But past=/= future. Q1 will be interesting but Id guess this first round of stimulus that hit in Q4 shows up in the numbers. And thats before next year"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Yeah itll probs re rate to this next year but the real money is holding for topline to grow Such a long runway for growth but valued like its gonna experience negative growth"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Probs but trade doesnt have much longer to run imo New year new positions for many hedgies and traders Also its obvious inflation is sticky and growth is slowing so rate cuts will get moved off the table (that push down US equities)"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Price/book not relevant in todays age @LanceRoberts but agree directionally this is likely the top for US equities (CAPE ratio PE ratio etc suggests the same as P/b) Just something to bookmark to look back at some day and say "Yes.I remember that.but it didn't matter then." https://t.co/xzlKRd7Wux Just something to bookmark to look back at some day and say "Yes.I remember that.but it didn't matter then." https://t.co/xzlKRd7Wux"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Could be right - lots of IPO candidates next year (@Chime @RevolutApp @CoreWeave etc) Ironically if @SHEIN_Official IPOs and @tiktok_us gets carved out of @BytedanceTalk itll be positive for China tech too"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@nataninvesting Id double down on $PDD (less capex and far lower downside risk given valuation)"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@nataninvesting This is the Chinese equivalent of $App in early [----] Watch $PDD go up 10x in [--] years bc people fomo in once stimmy drops"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$PLTR Palantir is cheap at 50x NTM Revenue (If youre comparing it to Pro Medicus $PME which trades at 125x NTM Revenue) To put that into perspective: You pay $16 BILLION for a company You get $130 MILLION in revenue. Idiots"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Bob70812098871 @nataninvesting Just wait for [----] when China tech outperforms and fundies have to go long these names to avoid underperforming"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"How is the $DXY up when the fed is cutting rates"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"If this is what happens to $MSTR $MSTX when $BTC is $90k (and the rest of alts e.g. $Eth) Imagine what happens when $BTC ACTUALLY drops to "fAiR VaLuE" of $50k lol Clown show"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Bob70812098871 @nataninvesting Would drop BABA and JD they're competitors so cannabilise each other Also Baba and JD have lower growth lower margins and are trading at higher valuation (on NTM EBITDA and NTM FCF basis) Just my 2c tho"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Bob70812098871 @nataninvesting Yeah if I had to hold either $baba or $JD I'd pick $BABA - upside with cloud and they're actually not being delinquents with their cash on the balance sheet through buybacks Still insane to me that $PDD trades at the same EV/Rev multiple when it's literally growing 6x faster"
X Link 2024-12-30T22:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Day [--] of pounding the table on $PDD 1.4x Revenue 5x EBITDA 8x PE $92B EV (Multiples for y'day before they update) (Doing this for my own posterity) $KWEB $CWEB $ASHR $YINN $YANG"
X Link 2024-12-30T23:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@abhishe72461160 @lloydjamesross @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Multiple businesses is just a smokescreen to create a narrative to justify SOTP and weak revenue growth If the business units were all growing 30% a year topline growth then yes I'd agree but they're really not (apart from cloud which is a small % of rev base)"
X Link 2024-12-30T23:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Eyal__Weiss $PDD is disgustingly mispriced For posterity sake Im gonna guess its the #1 highest performing stock in the Nasdaq [---] for [----] Its 1.33x NTM Revenue and 4x FCF"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Eyal__Weiss If Im wrong I have to go back to work at a VC fund If Im right Im $5 million dollars richer Heads I lose Tails I win a LOT"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran But if $PDD grew 90% in [----] and will do 60% in [----] who is bleeding the share JD (some of that is Temu but most of it not)"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@abhishe72461160 @lloydjamesross @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Agree but Chinese customers are inherently value driven (Im Chinese lol) and its likely most of growth comes from poorer/lower tier cities/population meaning PDD will get the lions share of growth Some will upgrade spending but I doubt most will"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@abhishe72461160 @lloydjamesross @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Dunno where theyre diluting shareholders they issued convertible bonds in [----] at a $190 strike (which wont hit) and havent diluted since then They wont need to dilute in future given $40 billion cash on balance sheet and very profitable local Pinduoduo operation"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Classic sandbagging future guidance to avoid CCP kneecapping lol Hard revenue growth numbers speak the truth Agree market is slowing but once fiscal and monetary stimulus drops that changes everything"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross @abhishe72461160 @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Temu is literally the $AMZN killer Gives them a 2T global TAM to go after and a place to reinvest FCF (something Chuck Akre and Chris Mayer talk about for compounding returns) Show me another company that spun up an app that went from $0 to $50b GMV in [--] months"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross @abhishe72461160 @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Id avoid $AMZN for the same reason I dont hold $BABA haha When you need to pivot bc your core revenue base is under attack and you cant compete thats a red flag imo"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Ill never understand why @DOGE isnt bearish for all defence tech/SaaS like $PLTR Stop overpaying for shit just bc its govt is clearly a short for the whole defence sector"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross @abhishe72461160 @CompoundinGirl @AswathDamodaran Agree with your logic Ultimately IMO everything comes down to growth. If you continue to compound top/bottom lines ignoring any multiple expansion/contraction you'll continue to grow. $AMZN and $BABA both have large revenue bases. The days of them growing 30% YoY are done"
X Link 2024-12-31T00:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Day [--] of Zoomer pounding the table on $PDD $89B Enterprise Value $67B NTM Revenue (26% Rev Growth) 1.3x NTM EV/Revenue () 4.7x NTM EV/EBITDA () This is $PLTR in [----] at $7 This is $APP in [----] at $9 Calling the bottom $KWEB $CWEB $ASHR $YINN $YANG $FXI $MCHI $BABA $JD"
X Link 2024-12-31T01:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"For reference: $PLTR was 5x NTM EV/REV at $7 (300% higher than $PDD) $APP was 2x NTM EV/REV at $9 (50% higher than $PDD)"
X Link 2024-12-31T01:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"To paraphrase @DavidTepper : "Either the economy will do better by itself. and stocks will do well" "OR economy won't do so well and PBOC comes in with QE. then EVERYTHING will do well" Long china tech is SUCH an obvious long $KWEB $CWEB $ASHR $YINN $YANG $FXI $MCHI"
X Link 2024-12-31T01:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Two HFs I admire quietly going long $KWEB from 13F data: @coatuemgmt (@philippelaffont )- $60B AUM $250m 1% weighting @AltimeterCap (@altcap) - $11B AUM $200m 3% weighting Wouldn't surprise me if they're front running stimmy Q1 [--] $KWEB $CWEB $YINN $YANG $FXI $MCHI"
X Link 2024-12-31T01:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@alc2022 Selling $PLTR is like selling Netscape in 2000"
X Link 2024-12-31T01:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$PDD valued at 1.3x NTM Revenue. It's all time low of 1.1x NTM Revenue was in March [----] with the thread of mass China ADR delisting and @jpmorgan's Alex Yao called them "Uninvestible" (supposedly in error). Temu didn't exist back then. It's since grown 90% in [--] + 60% in 24"
X Link 2024-12-31T02:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@jpmorgan $PDD has doubled it's TAM with the (very successful) launch of Temu. In March [----] NTM Revenue was [--] billion. As of December [----] NTM Revenue is $67 billion. A delta of [--] billion over [--] years. And it basically trades at the SAME multiple as [----] (peak delisting fear)"
X Link 2024-12-31T02:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@markmahaney Honourable mentions (but wouldn't invest for capex or valuation reasons): $MBLY - $20 $AMD - $120 $PINS - $29 $GRAB - $4.80 $SE - $107 $PRGS - $65"
X Link 2024-12-31T04:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital @markmahaney Also came up on my screener last year didnt buy bc it wasnt tech / they sold physical stuff but clearly goes in the anti portfolio bucket of $PLTR $APP that I missed $hims has good growth and margins but will get kneecapped by big pharma and regs long term"
X Link 2024-12-31T05:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@LindaTangUSA Sounds like me with $PDD lol"
X Link 2024-12-31T05:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@LindaTangUSA Re: $TLT - cant imagine bond yields drop given stagflation risk (meaning fed will have to raise rates pushing bond yields higher) Would recommend go long $TIPS instead"
X Link 2024-12-31T05:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Let's check in on the "Degen Crypto" basket Oh Looks like the top is in $MSTR $TSLA $COIN $MARA $CORZ $MSTX $IREN $CLSK"
X Link 2024-12-31T05:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"From [----] - [----] $PDD raised $5 billion in insto funding. With this $ they generated $50 billion of TTM revenue (forecasted to grow to $67 billion next year). They have $40b+ cash sitting on the balance sheet Talk about a capital efficient cash cow $KWEB $BABA $JD $YINN"
X Link 2024-12-31T06:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Following the prior thread doing this for @OpenAI $12 billion raised - $4b in [----] (12 billion in 2025) So 1:1 efficiency of capital raised that flows down to revenue on the P/L Not the worst but also not great given they're the #1 AI consumer app by FAR"
X Link 2024-12-31T06:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Eyal__Weiss Doubtful on accounting problems - gets audited every year as it's Nasdaq listed If it's a fraud then it'll be a $150 billion market cap fraud with the majority of losses going to institutional investors (unlikely to happen) Most HFs won't touch it bc it's politically difficult"
X Link 2024-12-31T06:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives [----] will be the year of $Temus rise. Long $PDD short retail ($WMT $TGT $DG etc) is so obvious at this point"
X Link 2024-12-31T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Also they slightly missed the last two earnings reports (eg not growing at 110% yoy only 44% lmao) so suddenly re rates to 4x FCF rather than 8x FCF"
X Link 2024-12-31T21:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Biggest lesson from the last few years is that you may find a stock that's DHQ (Dislocated High Quality) that you like but you NEED to find a catalyst. Everyone knows China Tech is cheap but it's only in September [----] (after [--] years) that stocks move $KWEB $MCHI $BABA PDD"
X Link 2024-12-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Everyone's looking at the LATAM stocks and wants to get in ( $NU $MELI $STNE) But until they sort their inflation problems this will continue to trend downwards. The "bottom" is only on one day out of [---]. Do you think you're buying on this day Or on the [---] other days"
X Link 2024-12-31T22:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@mattparlmer Few understand this Americans are delusional to think they're ahead in tech Take a trip to China and you'll see The longer Americans gaslight themselves into thinking they're ahead the more behind they really become. $KWEB $CWEB $ASHR $YINN $YANG $FXI $MCHI $BABA $JD"
X Link 2024-12-31T22:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The top [--] companies in [----] vs [----] vs [----] The top [--] companies today will almost certainly be replaced by different companies in [----]. My guess is you won't see 100% US tech there. Half will be Chinese like Bytedance Shein PDD Tencent $KWEB $YINN $FXI $MCHI $BABA $JD"
X Link 2024-12-31T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MeritechCapital / @BessemerVP Rule of X versus NTM Revenue multiples for tech stocks (Ex-Semis) $PLTR hidden bc it skews the graph Which one would you long here There's a clear outlier. $PDD"
X Link 2024-12-31T23:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MeritechCapital @BessemerVP $APP $DUOL $ADYEN $CRWD $TTD $FNOX $NOW $DDOG $SNOW $MA all expensive $TKO $KSPI $FOUR $YOU $YMM $BZ $EVO $FLYW $TCOM all cheap Rule of X using 2.4x ratio of revenue growth : FCF margin attribution"
X Link 2024-12-31T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I literally cant underwrite any business to survive to [----] except for the most simple [----] is a reversion to the simple: [--]. People need to buy shit to live (long e-comm) [--]. People want cheap shit (hence why $Temu and Pinduoduo is crushing it in the USA and China) Long $Pdd"
X Link 2025-01-01T04:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TidefallCapital $Temu is literally the dollar store killer Long $PDD Short $DG is the trade of 2025"
X Link 2025-01-01T06:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The orange squeeze theory The higher the starting multiple the less juice you can get (and the lower the expected return.) The lower the starting multiple the more juice you can get. $TSLA at 12x Rev has no juice $PLTR at 55x Rev has no juice"
X Link 2025-01-01T21:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Apollo $APO out with their [--] slide outlook for [----] on private markets: https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/PrivateMarkets-010125.pdf https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/PrivateMarkets-010125.pdf"
X Link 2025-01-01T22:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"From Apollo $APO: Median EV/EBITDA multiples on acquisition occurs at 13-14x. $PDD is currently trading 5x EV/EBITDA. Make it make sense. $KWEB $BABA $JD $BIDU $NIO $FXI $MCHI"
X Link 2025-01-01T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"A side by side comparison of $PLTR vs $PDD Both mega caps ($100-200b EV) Both growing topline 25% in [----] Both with steady mid 30s FCF margins One trades at 55.4x NTM Revenue The other trades at 1.4x NTM Revenue One trades at 172x NTM FCF The other trades at 6.4x NTM FCF"
X Link 2025-01-01T22:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BABA is a terrible capital allocator and somehow gave away their monopoly to $PDD in literally [--] years since Pinduoduo was founded in [----]. Clown show. Alibaba to Sell Sun Art Stake for $1.6B Faces $1.8B Loss #Alibaba will sell its entire 78.7% stake in Hong Kong-listed Sun Art Retail Group to Chinese private-equity firm DCP Capital Partners for gross proceeds of up to $1.6 billion Alibaba said Wednesday. Alibaba expects to https://t.co/6OVcpchCwe Alibaba to Sell Sun Art Stake for $1.6B Faces $1.8B Loss #Alibaba will sell its entire 78.7% stake in Hong Kong-listed Sun Art Retail Group to"
X Link 2025-01-02T01:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"WHY CHINA TECH THAT ONLY TRADES IN THE USA TRADES AT SUCH LOW VALUATIONS (E.G. $PDD AND $YMM) CHINA CAN'T OWN $PDD HONG KONG CAN'T OWN $PDD US HF WON'T OWN $PDD US INSTOS WON'T OWN $PDD RETAIL FOMO WON'T OWN $PDD HENCE WHY IT'S TRADING AT 1.4X FWD REVENUE"
X Link 2025-01-02T01:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CompoundinGirl Bond yields dropping is ironically a good signal In contrast bond yields skyrocketing in the USA while the fed cuts rates indicates high inflation expected (and bond market betting they'll have to raise rates) Low bond yields = high bond prices = higher demand for Yuan"
X Link 2025-01-02T21:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$TSLA What did I say WHAT DID I SAY Chinese EV competitors will DESTROY Tesla How can you realistically think you're gonna compete against $NIO $XPEV $BYD etc. They're cheaper and better. Period"
X Link 2025-01-02T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@blondesnmoney These [--] are the most overvalued disgusting stocks of 2024"
X Link 2025-01-02T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KoyfinCharts Wtf is going on with $APO"
X Link 2025-01-02T22:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Can someone tell me why short $APO long $ARES isn't the most obvious trade in the market rn Apollo trading at 23x NTM P/S Ares trading at 8x NTM P/S Spread trade #3 from me Spread trade 1: Long $KWEB Short $QQQ Spread trade 2: Long $PDD Short $JD"
X Link 2025-01-02T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The "new (tech) kids on the block" in China tech $PDD $MPNGY $KUASF $PDD trading at half the valuation of Meituan Kuaishou trading at the same val as $PDD (but with far weaker growth and margins)"
X Link 2025-01-02T23:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Screened companies growing 24%+ this year with 24%+ FCF margins There are [--] that I know of $PLTR @ 55x Rev () $FNOX @ 19x Rev $ADYEN @ 16x Rev $DUOL @ 16x Rev $MNDY @ 9x Rev $AFRM @ 8x Rev $PDD $ 1.4x Rev () Spot the odd ones out"
X Link 2025-01-02T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Uh Oh Long @Xiaomi $XIACY Short @Tesla $TSLA Thank me later @KWEB @PDD @BABA @JD @FXI @MCHI"
X Link 2025-01-03T03:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Citrini7 Xiaomi is a beast (alongside Kingsoft Cloud $KC and Meituan $MPNGY) I'd bet $PDD becomes top pick for [----] given valuation rift and massive growth/margin superiority vs other china tech names"
X Link 2025-01-03T03:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Market clearly expects some serious QE for bond yields to drop from 2% to 1.6% Unlike bond yields in the US that call bullshit on @alifarhat79 Jerome Powell when he cuts rates (and bond yields skyrocket) WOW. China's 10-Year Note Yield is now below 1.60% for the first time in history. The yield is now down 100+ basis points in over the last year. China and the US are moving in opposite directions. https://t.co/Kk1tOMM4Qm WOW. China's 10-Year Note Yield is now below 1.60% for the first time in history. The yield is now down 100+ basis points in over the last year. China and the US are moving"
X Link 2025-01-03T03:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GrindeOptions This is how you underperform. Long $NIO Short $TSLA"
X Link 2025-01-03T04:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@AydenMMiller I wouldn't lol Long $NIO Short $TSLA Can't fight against the tide"
X Link 2025-01-03T04:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Posterity on $PDD for myself in 2035: "Imagine paying 4x FCF for Temu and PinDuoDuo in [----]. $90b EV. $70b Revenue. $20b FCF. $40b Cash on balance sheet. Global E-Commerce TAM. $KWEB $BABA $JD $NIO $FXI $MCHI $YINN Imagine paying 3x earnings for Blue Chip Stamps in [----]. $27mm market cap. $110mm of securities. Trading stamp redemption liability was only $70mm. Securities already well in excess of the carried value of super cheap float. And Blue Chip owned all of See's at this point. Imagine paying 3x earnings for Blue Chip Stamps in [----]. $27mm market cap. $110mm of securities. Trading stamp"
X Link 2025-01-03T04:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Anotha [--] These headlines just can't stop flowing China droping the motherlode of all QE via treasury bonds $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-sharply-increase-funding-treasury-bonds-spur-growth-2025-2025-01-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-sharply-increase-funding-treasury-bonds-spur-growth-2025-2025-01-03/"
X Link 2025-01-03T04:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Short $TSLA Long $NIO Long $BYD BYD is now the 2nd largest auto manufacturer in the world mostly from sales in China. meanwhile Tesla's sales fall for the first time https://t.co/QUlG67IUyS BYD is now the 2nd largest auto manufacturer in the world mostly from sales in China. meanwhile Tesla's sales fall for the first time https://t.co/QUlG67IUyS"
X Link 2025-01-03T05:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Long $PDD Temu + PinDuoDuo means PDD competes for the biggest TAM of any company in the world. Global E-Comm revenue estimated at [--] TRILLION by [----] (largest market by FAR) $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI Weve identified the next big arenas of competition that will drive economic growth in the new era. These [--] arenas could reshape the global economy generating $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by [----]. https://t.co/BZmvXKAiVz https://t.co/siJ6hyC6dP Weve identified the next big arenas of competition that will drive economic growth in the new era. These 18"
X Link 2025-01-03T07:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The 10Y Treasury is almost 5%. 2x the long term average. Yet EV/Revenue multiples are still hovering around the average. If stocks go down when bond yields go up HOW are multiples not halving when 10Y yield doubles $SPY $QQQ H/T @jaminball"
X Link 2025-01-04T00:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"MSCI China Index fwd PE of 9.8x (eg $MCHI $FXI $KWEB). MSCI USA Index fwd PE of 22.8x (eg $SPY $QQQ). Which one experiences multiple expansion in [----] That's it. That's the tweet. $YINN $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI"
X Link 2025-01-04T01:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$Temu likely to become 50% of $PDD's rev by [----] and clock $50b+ REVENUE (not GMV). This will rev from the three big players: [--]. Dollar stores $DG $DLTR $BIG $OLLI [--]. Amazon $AMZN [--]. China competitors (Shein $BABA $MELI $SE) $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $NIO $BIDU $BILI"
X Link 2025-01-04T01:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This will come* Also this report was done [--] months ago Temu are significantly outperforming their own ambitious benchmarks $Temu GMV 2022: $.3b 2023: $15b 2024: $50b est. (they did 20b in H1) (3x+ 2023) 2025: Anyone's guess but I'd imagine it doubles at the minimum"
X Link 2025-01-04T01:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$Temu GMV by year. The market attributes $0 to Temu at $PDD's current val. This is likely undershooting as Temu did $20b in H1 [----] (and will do min. $20b in H2 2024). Assume [--] will clock $40b+ Assume [--] will clock $60b+ If this was a standalone company it'd be $100b EV+"
X Link 2025-01-04T01:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"HOT TAKE: $BABA is a value trap. $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI Yep Yep"
X Link 2025-01-04T02:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@lloydjamesross Doubtful imo The money isnt in clipping the ticket off gmv The money is in the Google style auctions from China sellers that generate ad/marketing revenue Hence why AMZN ads is now a [--] billion rev business IMO: Cloud is capex heavy cyclical and commoditised"
X Link 2025-01-04T02:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@lloydjamesross Also AMZN cloud has v low rev run rate compared to their e-comm (Aka you can grow cloud 20% but it wont move the dial on rev bc it only makes up 5% of total $AMZN or $BABA rev) Numbers probs wrong but you get my point"
X Link 2025-01-04T02:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"If Supreme court blocks Tiktok ban going through Positive for $TEMU Watch $PDD rocket https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/doj-asks-supreme-court-to-reject-trump-bid-to-delay-tiktok-ban https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/doj-asks-supreme-court-to-reject-trump-bid-to-delay-tiktok-ban"
X Link 2025-01-04T03:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Tried one of these Apple Vision Pros in London Cool tech but fucking clunky Not practical at all In contrast I have the @Meta Ray Bans and they are awesome For consumer tech you NEED the customer to actually like it and find it useful Spread Trade #5 Long $META Short $AAPL Old enough to remember when the sell side had this doing a few billion of sales in a couple of years. $AAPL stock unphased. Old enough to remember when the sell side had this doing a few billion of sales in a couple of years. $AAPL stock unphased"
X Link 2025-01-04T03:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TJTheWheelDeal Love half your portfolio (pretty quality) Hate the other half (shitcos) Long $SOFI $AMZN $PYPL $HOOD Short $RIOT $TSLA $CLSK $MARA $ENPH"
X Link 2025-01-04T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@theallinpod [----] biz predictions as public long/short trades: Long $GOOG Short Mag [--] ( $META $AMZN $AAPL $NVDA $TSLA $MSFT) Short Shitcos ( $MSTR $DJT) Short OEMs ( $GM $TM $TATA $F) Short "cost plus" govt providers ( $LMT $ACN) @Jason @chamath @friedberg @GavinSBaker"
X Link 2025-01-04T04:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"- Pension/Superannuation won't exist by the time we retire - Try to get maximum gross equity exposure as you can as early as you can (a good benchmark is $1m by [--] $5m by 35-40) - Nothing else matters other than gross equity exposure (this is why boomer parents did so well)"
X Link 2025-01-04T04:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Max income Min expenses Max equity investments Max leverage (use $IBKR or $HOOD if you can) Single stocks or ETFs (don't touch options) Ignore real estate (it's all negative cap rate anyway) You can ease off the gas after you pass $1m NW"
X Link 2025-01-04T04:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Jason @Jason finally MAGA"
X Link 2025-01-04T05:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$MU Micron and SK Hynix basically 100% correlation with each other"
X Link 2025-01-04T06:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"EV/Revenue relative to 10Y long term average: - SK Hynix ( $HXSCL) a hair below 10Y average - Micron ( $MU) c. 50% above 10Y average (but 50% lower than the peak in early 2024)"
X Link 2025-01-04T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@chamath buying CDS (Credit Default Swaps) in [----] on banks Unsure what asset he's bearish on but I think the way to play his theme is probably just to short levered beta (in this case short the worst of the Mag 7) AKA: Short $TSLA Short $AAPL Short $NVDA"
X Link 2025-01-04T06:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Gavin Baker agrees: "I think both Trump and Xi want a deal I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold. If that happens "Katie Bar the door." There are really REALLY high quality companies that are mid single digit multiples.""
X Link 2025-01-04T07:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Even JCal agrees: "And it's a BIG MARKET". Friedberg: "BTW the Chinese companies serve a GLOBAL market it's not just the USA. They serve Africa South America the whole Southern Hemisphere" JCal: "Yeah Look at $BYD it's all over Europe. It's huge""
X Link 2025-01-04T07:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@theallinpod [----] trades: Long: HS Memory $MU China Tech $KWEB $BABA Autonomous Hardware $MPNGY Short: Mag [--] Rails $V $MA Banks(via CDS) Enterprise SaaS x3 $CRM $ADBE $ORCL $SAP $INTU $WDAY Govt Industrial Complex $LMT $ACN Non-AV Mobiility $UBER $LYFT @Jason Accurate"
X Link 2025-01-04T08:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The main reason why I have 65% weighting to $PDD Its so obvious $Temu and $Pinduoduo will both become the dominant e-commerce platforms by [----] Cheap fast superior apps that consumers are addicted to Growing like weeds versus peers Consistent with the network premise 10) $PDD Pinduoduo One of the largest and fastest growing e-com player in China + owner of TEMU the super fast growing e-com platform Trades at less than 6x EBIT 🤯 Though I love $BABA I think this is a huge long term opportunity My price target: $1100 (+1361%) ❗ https://t.co/mCQIytgR0l 10) $PDD Pinduoduo One of the largest and"
X Link 2025-01-04T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter More market share for $Temu to eat up No reason why you buy from any of these [--] players if theyre commoditised stuff from China anyway Long $PDD Short $AMZN $COST $WMT"
X Link 2025-01-04T20:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"What we saw in [----] with the Mag [--] Is what well see in [----] with China tech. Few. $PDD $BABA $JD $KWEB $FXI $MCHI"
X Link 2025-01-04T21:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Cant see a universe in [----] where all e-commerce players dont bleed market share to $PDD $AMZN $WMT $COST $TGT $DG $DLTR $OLLI $BABA $JD $MELI $SE WHY WOULD YOU BUY THESE COMPANIES WITH A SMALL TAM VERSUS A GLOBAL ECOMM TAM Long $PDD"
X Link 2025-01-04T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Its inevitable that [--] of the top [--] largest companies in [----] will be Chinese at a minimum. Which ones are they gonna be [--]. Bytedance [--]. $PDD [--]. Tencent $KWEB $BABA $JD $FXI $MCHI $NIO $BIDU"
X Link 2025-01-04T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Agree but Bytedance is 3x the size of PDD rn $150b rev versus $50b rev for $PDD"
X Link 2025-01-04T21:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Unclear as Bytedance isnt public But if theyre similar in cost structure to meta and google Bytedance should have 50% EBITDA margins Which is higher than $PDD"
X Link 2025-01-04T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Im sure theyre profitable Snap and pins are terrible ad platforms Bytedance is the best in class If it was public id sell everything and buy it Id mortgage my nonexistent house to go long Bytedance"
X Link 2025-01-04T22:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Agree but that's just a business model decision Doesn't mean competition doesn't exist (the competitors could simply just stop clipping the ticket) Also Amazon has an advertising division like $Temu that's doing [--] billion run rate revenue"
X Link 2025-01-04T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PDD trading at a 15% Free Cash Flow Yield. Highest in history (excl. in March [----] when everyone thought China as "uninvestible"). Would you buy the whole of $Temu for a 15% FCF Yield $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI"
X Link 2025-01-04T22:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"A significant source of overlooked alpha in Chinese equities are ADRs listed on the Nasqaq or NYSE but NOT in China or Hong Kong Think $PDD $YMM etc. Chinese consumers would probs kill for the chance to go long PinDuoDuo but they can't bc of capital controls Few"
X Link 2025-01-04T23:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"A Bytedance TikTok divestment deal is likely to be the bottom and catalyst for China Tech Looks like Trump will push for a deal given his request to the Supreme Court Art of the deal in action $KWEB $PDD $BABA"
X Link 2025-01-05T03:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PDD What many equity research analysts get wrong is that multiples dont just move 30% They go up [---] [---] 400% $TSLA $NVDA $APP $PLTR rev multiples went up 10x $PDD at 1.4x REV can run 10x easily within [--] months once multiples rerate and growth/ margins re-accelerate"
X Link 2025-01-05T04:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"New fund idea: MSD GLOBAL Just go long Tech companies trading at Mid Single Digit multiples My top [--] rn: $PDD $KSPI $STNE $KUASF"
X Link 2025-01-05T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fatfire with $5 million at age [--] Spend [--] months skiing Spend [--] months at the beach Manage PA from IBKR remotely Suggestions"
X Link 2025-01-05T04:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"People forget one thing about autocracies If they want something done itll happen instantaneously If China wants consumers to spend THEY WILL SPEND You think thats NOT going to flow down to the balance sheet of China tech companies like $PDD Few"
X Link 2025-01-05T04:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JaguarAnalytics 4.5x EV/EBITDA for a company growing mid 20s with mid 30s FCF margin"
X Link 2025-01-06T00:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JaguarAnalytics Also majority of Rev base and profits are from China customers via Pinduoduo so tariffs are immaterial Also also QE and fiscal stimmy incoming"
X Link 2025-01-06T00:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"China 10Y Bond Yield vs US 10Y Bond Yield One implies raising rates One implies QE Which equity market do you want to go long $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI $KBA $ASHR $NIO"
X Link 2025-01-06T06:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@pandawatch88 Xiaomi's had a solid run in the LTM but it's definitely not cheap here (at least relative to the rest of china tech) EV + smartphone division is always going to weigh on their margins and really shouldn't trade at a premium to software heavy competitors ( $PDD $KUASF etc)"
X Link 2025-01-06T07:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"How an equity research analyst can underwrite ANY stock at 40x revenue is beyond me Credibility instantly lost $PLTR $MS MORGAN STANLEY ASSUMES COVERAGE ON $PLTR WITH UNDERWEIGHT RATING SETS PT AT $60 Analyst comments: "The inflection in growth and our positively revised assessment of Palantir's positioning in the Generative AI cycle is well reflected in shares which were up +34% in [----] MORGAN STANLEY ASSUMES COVERAGE ON $PLTR WITH UNDERWEIGHT RATING SETS PT AT $60 Analyst comments: "The inflection in growth and our positively revised assessment of Palantir's positioning in the Generative AI"
X Link 2025-01-06T09:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PDD up 5% on news of tariff changes I assume this is bullish for $Temu as those products arent critical imports (meaning no tariffs on Temu goods) That would be pretty positive for Temu "Trumps aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover critical imports three people familiar with the matter said a key shift from his plans during the [----] presidential campaign" @JStein_WaPo reports https://t.co/J25IcexsiH "Trumps aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover critical imports three people familiar with the"
X Link 2025-01-06T11:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Odds it actually gets pared back lol"
X Link 2025-01-06T20:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Owning $AAPL is riskier than owning $PDD"
X Link 2025-01-06T21:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Youd really long $BMBL at 1.6x revenue over $PDD at 1.4x revenue $Bmbl Is a legit shitco $PDD is growing 30% revenue with 30% FCF margins"
X Link 2025-01-06T21:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If you're young (50) and can get your hands on a few million retire early and just manager your PA. Life is to be lived - and a 5-6% withdrawal rate off 100% equities is absolutely sustainable. Live the @DieWithZero lifestyle (cc. @bp22)"
X Link 2025-01-06T22:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"S&P [---] Price/Book Ratio from @apolloglobal $APO Basically at the dot com bubble peak Short $SPY Long $KWEB $KWEB $YINN $MCHI $FXI $BABA $JD $PDD $NIO $BIDU $BILI $KBA $ASHR $NIO"
X Link 2025-01-06T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital Nah If youve got one life you may as well live in the best places (Sydney London etc)"
X Link 2025-01-06T23:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Oh @danawhite got elected to FB's board of directors Spread trade #6 (I think) Long $TKO Short $META"
X Link 2025-01-07T00:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Almost everybody in the US knows about Temu now even my housekeeper is using it he added. Many people are buying things on the platform. The business model is cool and the quality is improving step by step. Billionaire Duan Yongping on $Temu"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PDD versus peers (Bytedance $GOOG $META $SNAP $AMZN etc.)"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Meituan with anemic GMV growth in the LTM Looks like competition is biting at topline and margins It's kinda confusing why this stock is up so much in the LTM @pandawatch88 thoughts"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hong Shan / HSG Holdings (Used to be Sequoia China but has now spun out and got distributed shares) has a HUGE stake in PDD You can see Q2 [----] 13F they went from $180m gross value to $2.1 billion (1.4m shares - 16.2m shares) when Sequoia split They still hold $2b"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"SC US (TTGP) is Sequoia Capital USA with a $1.6 billion stake in $PDD Again in Q3 [----] they went from 3m shares - 15m shares (likely the Sequoia US division's split of PDD shares). They still hold 12m shares with a notional valu oe $1.6 billion"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"In the "smaller" allocations: Hillhouse (China VC) holds $650m (they sold half last quarter and have been selling from 11m in [----] buying in [----] up to 12m and steadily been selling to 5m shares now.) H&H (Duan YongPing) holding 4m shares all added Q3 [----]. Coatue w/ 2.5m"
X Link 2025-01-07T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

""Full Truck Alliance continues to exhibit one of the fastest growth rates in global internet" This company raised from: Tier [--] VCs like Tencent Hillhouse SoftBank Sequoia Tier [--] PE firms like Permira and Fidelity Lost in the weeds of the ZIRP era but still a beast Long $YMM"
X Link 2025-01-07T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Bullish for $YMM LIU: CHINA TO ENHANCE CARGO TRANSPORTATION CAPABILITIES LIU: CHINA TO ENHANCE CARGO TRANSPORTATION CAPABILITIES"
X Link 2025-01-07T02:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@markmahaney $MU too but forgot to add lol"
X Link 2025-01-07T03:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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