@urtrading Avatar @urtrading ur-trading

ur-trading posts on X about ai, in the, gold, market the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 70.38% countries 17.69% stocks 16.54% technology brands 7.69% cryptocurrencies 7.31% currencies 6.15% financial services 3.85% exchanges 3.46% automotive brands 1.92% travel destinations 1.15%

Social topic influence ai 12.69%, in the 11.54%, gold 10.38%, market 10%, money 9.62%, china 8.85%, inflation 8.08%, just a 6.15%, liquidity 6.15%, stocks 6.15%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @brianarmstrong @andreassteno @deitaone @grichm77 @robinjbrooks @ryandetrick @nicktimiraos @alexfinn @kathylienfx @devonenergy @coterraenergy @freightalley @peterschiff @michaelbatnick @andresyoutubee @traderdante @katiemiller @albertrjf @valoai31561 @valueseeker

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) BP p.l.c. (BP) Century Aluminum Co (CENX) Caduceus Protocol (CAD)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"#Euro shorts racing higher as tariFF uncertainty looms. Is this hedging or conviction"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Richtech Robotics Inc. develops manufactures deploys and sells robotic solutions for automation in the service industry in the United States. The company oFFers commercial robotic products including #Matradee a line of restaurant service robots for bussing serving hosting advertising and entertaining; and ADAM and Scorpion which are dual-arm AI-powered service robots for beverage preparation and customer interaction in hospitality and retail environments. It also provides industrial robotic products such as Titan a line of heavy-duty autonomous mobile robots (AMR) delivery focused robots;"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"GOOGL's [----] capex of $92BN and the forecast"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Exactly. In [----] we were fighting for survival against a hostile #SEC and systemic collapses like #FTX. In [----] were just watching the 'Wall Street' crowd learn what volatility feels like. The #ETFs provide the plumbing but the 'yellow block paper' provides the conviction. Price is noise; the infrastructure is the signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019183682955755812"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"La matemtica de una tasa real del 34% es la "guillotina" definitiva. Tienes toda la razn: el S&P [---] no puede ignorar una tendencia bajista para siempre. Cuando se alcance esa vela del 5% de "admisin a la recesin" la brecha hasta los $66.000 ( $IBIT $40 ) se cerrar en un instante. Pero como dijiste esa es la "compra de la vida" antes de que la Fed se vea obligada a inundar de liquidez. Este es el ltimo jefe del ciclo. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189436131561522"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Look at the short interest on $OIHits nearly 49% of the float. That 7-year base isn't just a technical level; its a graveyard for everyone who bet that fossil energy was obsolete. As we push toward $360 the 'Oversold' bears are going to become the 'Panic Buyers.' This breakout has enough fuel to turn into a vertical launch. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207107715772496"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A 7-year base breakout is a 'once-in-a-career' type of signal. $OIH isn't just bouncing; it's being repriced for a decade of under-investment. While the $QQQ crowd is fighting for 24x multiples on software the Energy complex is breaking out from levels we haven't seen since the pre-pandemic world. When a base that long breaks the move isn't measured in days it's measured in quarters. The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil Services $OIH. About to break out of a 7YR base. The entire space looks like this. https://t.co/zhyBGcrO5C The entire Energy Complex is heating up. Look at Oil"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The rotation is violent because it's logical. AI has commoditized software but it has made energy services indispensable. $OIH breaking out while $IGV (Software) gets shredded is the market finally admitting that you can't run a digital revolution on a starved power grid. The 'Energy Complex' is the new growth sector of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207385802531323"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The collapse of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens is the smoking gun here. When the 'oFFicial' coins of the siTTing administration lose 95% of their value in weeks its no longer a market; its a predatory liquidity trap. Roubini is right: [----] is the year 'Digital Gold' meets the reality of 5% real rates and the GENIUS Acts regulatory haMMer. The house of cards isn't just unraveling; it's being professionally dismantled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019377593280086177"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Lacalle is spot on: the -$2 billion in ETF outflows isn't a failure of the asset; its a failure of the 'hot money' that bought THE TOP. In early [----] were seeing a rotation from levered speculation to spot aCCumulation. When the futures market is bleeding $1 billion a day the 'weak hands' are being replaced by high-conviction holders. This deleveraging is the tax the market pays to build a sustainable floor for the next leg up. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019449378725937535"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A third hike in [--] days is a 'Get Out' signal from the exchange. The #CME isn't just managing risk; they are actively breaking the back of the remaining longs. This 20% jump in silver margins will trigger a 'Margin Call Monday' that could see silver test the $65$68 support levels. When the exchange raises the cost of admission this fast the house is telling you THE GAME IS OVER-leveraged. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585296447197373"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The [--] million bpd decline isn't just a number; its a death sentence for 'cheap energy.' In [----] we are finding fewer 'easy' barrels in the Permian or Guyana to replace the ones were losing. Sawans message is clear: if you want to keep the world running at 106M bpd you have to find a new North Sea every couple of years. The 'Net Zero' narrative is colliding with the reality of 6% annual depletion and the math doesn't care about UR politics. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019598170121007366"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"What we are seeing on February [--] [----] is a massive "Geopolitical Hedge" trade that has reached a fever pitch. The record $217 million inflow into the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil ETF ($CRUD) is the markets way of saying it no longer believes the "Diplomatic Thaw" narrative. While the media was focused on the Oman talks scheduled for tomorrow (Friday Feb 6) the "Smart Money" just bet $217 million that those talks are already dead. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019600258674602307"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Youre spotting the 'Great Re-alignment' of [----]. For three years the market was just a 7-stock pony. Now with $KRE breaking $70 and Industrials hitting 14% gains the market is finally pricing in the 'Main Street' economy. Its a move from 'Virtual Growth' (AI) to 'Vertical Growth' (Infrastructure and Lending). If this rotation sticks it's the most bullish signal for a soft landing we've seen since the pandemic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019609160493465700"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"CUANDO "SALUDABLE" SIGNIFIC LIQUIDACIN Lunes: AMD -17% post-"earnings slidos" Martes: Software -11% peor desde [----] Mircoles: Google $185B capex IA accin cae Jueves: Amazon $200B capex -11% Viernes: Bitcoin $60K -40% desde octubre JPMorgan Private Bank: "Muy saludable. Ampliacin de recuperacin." Mi$ sistema$ MIENTRAS TANTO ganando. La diferencia no es informacin. Es procesamiento. Tu gestor puede mostrar track record auditado con estas mtricas"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its less of a 'pivot to a trend' and more of a 'highest and best use' of energy assets. Bitcoin miners are essentially just power-substation owners with GPUs. In a [----] bear market hashing for $0.05/kWh is charity; leasing that same power to a LLM for $2.00/kWh is just fiduciary duty. The 'Bitcoin company' was the chrysalis; the Data Center is the butterfly. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019876558778032292"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"When Bitcoin hit $60k yesterday most pure-play miners became cash-flow negative. Bitfarms/Keel just showed the market a 'Trap Door' out of the crypto winter. Expect $MARA and $CLSK to follow with even more aggressive #AI #rebrands by Q3"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The $58B tag is the headline but the 'sub-$40 breakeven' inventory is the real story. In a Feb [----] market where oil prices are under pressure from a strong USD and global surplus DVN-CTRA just built a bunker. They aren't chasing growth anymore; they are chasing the lowest cost-of-supply in the Lower [--]. ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one of the largest U.S. #shale operators and a dominant Delaware basin position. https://t.co/Nksr6ZnPTG ICYMI -- A $58-billion all-stock merger between @DevonEnergy and @CoterraEnergy will create one"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$DVN + $CTRA"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This merger confirms the 'Fewer Bigger Better' trend is the only playbook left for U.S. shale. With Devon moving HQ to Houston and swallowing Coterras Marcellus assets theyve created a multi-basin giant that can pivot between oil and gas depending on where the data center demand is highest. -Who's the next mid-cap target in the crosshairs https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020310444242563502"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The $58 billion Devon-Coterra merger (announced February [--] 2026) isn't just a big dealits a tactical retreat into "quality" as the shale era enters its maturity. By combining they are essentially creating a "Delaware Basin Fortress" designed to withstand the volatile [----] energy market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311695529275823"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"1. The "Delaware Basin" Fortress The combined entity (which will keep the Devon Energy name) becomes a top-three Permian producer trailing only ExxonMobil and Chevron. +The Scale: Pro forma production exceeds [---] million Boe/day. +The "Prize" Inventory: They now hold the industrys largest inventory of sub-$40 breakeven wells. This is the ultimate insurance policy against the current slide in oil prices. +Contiguous Acreage: The overlap in Lea County New Mexico allows for "longer laterals" (3-mile wells) which significantly lowers the cost per barrel."
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"2. The AI-Driven "Synergy" ($1 Billion) Management isn't just talking about cutting oFFice costs. Theyve specifically highlighted AI-driven optimization as a core pillar of the $1 billion in annual synergies expected by [----]. +Subsurface AI: Using combined data from both companies to predict "frac hits" and optimize well spacing in the increasingly crowded Delaware Basin. +Capital Discipline: They are targeting a reinvestment rate of 50% prioritizing a massive $5 billion+ share buyback program and a $0.315/share quarterly dividend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311699086037325"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"3. The "Gas Optionality" Hedge While Devon was oil-weighted Coterra brings the Marcellus Shale (gas) to the table. In [----] this is a strategic masterstroke: +Data Center Demand: The merger positions Devon to supply the massive "power load" growth from AI data centers and U.S. LNG export terminals. +The "Warsh" Dollar: With a strong USD making oil exports more expensive having a diversified gas portfolio provides a domestic revenue cushion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020311700885422473"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'SaaSpocalypse' is the market finally admitting that 'Enterprise Software' isn't a defensive sector anymore. If UR product is a wrapper for a process that an LLM agent now automates for free that 'generous equity cushion' is just a high-priced ticket on a sinking ship. Distressed managers are hunting for firms with an actual data moat not just a recurring billing cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020335617792422278"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The "SaaSpocalypse" Trigger The primary driver isn't just interest rates; its the AI #displacement #trade. +The Existential Threat: Lenders are realizing that many "legacy" SaaS firms (especially in customer experience ad-tech and coding services) are facing a structural decline. If an AI agent can perform the task of a $50/month software seat the borrowers revenue modeland their ability to service debtevaporates. +The Distressed Pile: The total tech distressed debt (loans trading with yields 10% over SOFR) jumped from roughly $29B in early January to $46.9B this week. +High-Profile Names:"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The "Equity Cushion" Debate When private credit managers say the equity cushion is "generous" they mean that the private equity sponsors (the owners) have put in 4050% of the capital which theoretically protects the lenders from losses. +The Counter-Argument: Junk bond investors are skeptical. If the underlying business model is being disrupted by AI a 50% equity cushion can vanish in a matter of months. +Liability Management (LMEs): We are seeing a wave of "Aggressive Liability Management" where sponsors are trying to "kick the can" by offering creditors worse terms to save their own equity"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its a brutal case of relative weakness. While the rest of the Communication Services sector is being buoyed by the AI trade $NFLX and $SPOT are acting like theyre in a diFFerent index entirely. Losing the 200-day SMA synchronously is usually the 'death knell' for the momentum crowd. Were oFFicially in 'Show Me' territory for these two. $NFLX and $SPOT both peaked and rolled over at the same time & lost the 200-sma at the same time. Both are streaming media stocks in the communication services sector. I don't spend much time on the why's just what happens on the charts. https://t.co/JT2QGnEcMG"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage model. Updating the financial system isn't just about crypto; it's about puTTing the legacy stock market on-chain. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020360147495751966"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Shipping through a bear market is Coinbase's superpower. The most bullish thing right now isn't $BTC priceits the growth of #Base as the default rail for AI agents. If [----] is the year AI starts transacting via stablecoins the 'financial system update' happens behind the scenes while the retail crowd is still looking at the charts. @brian_armstrong The pivot to the 'Everything Exchange' (Stocks + Crypto) is the real [----] story Brian. While people obsess over the Feb [--] liquidations they're missing the fact that Coinbase is built to survive the 4-year cycle by eating the traditional brokerage"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The "Everything Exchange" Strategy #Coinbase isn't just a crypto exchange anymore. Since December [----] theyve been aggressively rolling out 24/5 Stock Trading and Tokenized Equities to US users. +The Goal: To become the "Apple of Finance"the single app where you manage your 401(k) trade $TSLA and stake $SOL. +The "Eat Financial Services" Evidence: As of early [----] [--] of the world's top [--] banks (including JPMorgan and PNC) have integrated Coinbases white-label infrastructure to oFFer crypto services to their own clients. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361181798547457"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$COIN "Shipping Through Conditions" Despite the Feb [----] bear market the product pipeline is full: +Roadmap Adds: Just this week (Feb 6-7) Coinbase added Superform (UP) DeepBook (DEEP) and Walrus (WAL) to the listing roadmap. +Base Scaling: The Base chain has become the dominant Layer [--] for AI-agent transactions which @brian_armstrong sees as the next massive growth vector where "AI agents use crypto wallets to pay each other." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020361786772316645"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Mooch Bull-Meter is back in the green [---] mNAV is the line in the sand. As long as Strategy trades at a premium the infinite loop of 'debt-to-BTC' stays alive. This isn't just a bounce; its the market admitting that Bitcoin on a balance sheet is more valuable than Bitcoin in a cold wallet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020372697402798584"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Farleys NYSE background is showing here. In traditional finance if you don't have a sustainable P&L you get acquired or liquidated. Crypto has dodged this reality for years through token inflation and 'hopium' valuations. In [----] with the [---] mNAV floor on $MSTR and the $NDX 200-day breakdown the market is demanding real businesses not just 'cool tech.' 🚨CRYPTO SECTOR CONSOLIDATION INCOMING Bullish CEO Tom Farley says weaker crypto projects will be snapped up by larger firms as the industry wakes up to the fact that many companies have products not businesses. He said the consolidation"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"As the CEO of Bullish (and former President of the NYSE) Farley isn't just an observer; he is actively positioning his exchange to be the primary "consolidator" in a market that is finally moving from speculation to infrastructure. The "Product vs. Business" Trap Farleys core thesis is that [--------] created a "zombie" class of crypto companies: +The "Product" Companies: These are protocols or apps that solve a single technical problem (e.g. a new bridge or a niche DEX) but have no sustainable revenue model no regulatory moat and no path to institutional adoption. +The "Business" Companies:"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The G10 bounce looks like a 'head fake' driven by the Warsh headline but the #EM tape doesn't lie. If the Dollar can't catch a bid against the $BRL or $MXN while the Nasdaq is dropping 4% it means the 'Safe Haven' status of the Greenback is eroding. Were seeing a structural shift where the world is no longer funding the US deficit at any price. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020383727881228678"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The G10 vs. EM #Divergence (Feb [----] Context) +The G10 "Yield Trap": The bounce vs. the Euro and Yen is a reaction to Kevin Warsh's reputation as a balance-sheet hawk. Markets are betting he will shrink the Fed's portfolio which naturally props up the USD against other "low-yield" developed currencies like the Yen (which is still dealing with Japan's election uncertainty on Feb 8). +The EM Resilience: The fact that the USD remains near lows against EM currencies (like the BRL MXN and INR) suggests that the "Global Reflation" trade is still alive. EM currencies are often the "canary in the"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"That $17.4B gross short is the ultimate 'Pain Trade' for February. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the IEEPA TariFFs this month we could see a violent short squeeze as speculators are forced to buy back the USD to hedge trade-war risk. Hansens data suggests the market is leaning way too far into the 'Weak Dollar' narrative while the policy risks in DC are still peaking. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020463750776533108"
X Link 2026-02-08T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"2. Emerging Markets (#EM) as the Anchor This COT data validates @robin_j_brooks observation that the Dollar is failing against EM currencies. +Real Yield Dominance: Brazil is currently offering a 10.7% real rate (15% Selic vs 4.3% inflation) making it a vacuum for global capital. +The "Safe Dollar" Exit: As Convera noted the Dollar is losing its status as a "global shock absorber." Even when U.S. macro data beats expectations the COT report shows speculators are using every rally to aDD to their $17.4 billion short pile. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020471253463666741"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Todays landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi (February [--] 2026) is the ultimate endorsement of "Sanaenomics"a policy that has left traditional economists and the currency markets in a state of absolute vertigo. The exit polls (predicting up to [---] seats) give her the "super majority" she needs to execute a fiscal plan that is quite literally an aTTempt to fight inflation by throwing a $135 billion "money bomb" at it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020478811171668177"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Sanaenomics Paradox: "Printing to Save" Takaichis logic breaks from the traditional "hawk vs. dove" mold: +The "Mandate": She argues that the only way to "keep prices down" for the average voter is to aggressively subsidize the costs of living. +The Tools: This includes a [--] trillion stimulus package the abolition of gasoline taxes and a controversial 2-year suspension of the 10% food consumption tax (a [--] trillion hit to revenue). +The Funding: This is the "you read that right" part. In a country with debt exceeding 250% of GDP she plans to fund these tax cuts and subsidies through new"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its a baTTle between the 'Warsh Narrative' and the 'CTA Algos.' The market wants to be bullish on the Fed Chair nominEE but the systematic triggers have already bEEn pulled. The $33B in estimated selling this week means we nEEd a massive 'Buy the Dip' catalyst just to stay flat. Watch the 13F drop on Feb 14thats the first real chance for the fundamental buyers to outweigh the machines. STOCK SELL-OFF NOT OVER GOLDMAN TRADERS SAY Goldman Sachs warns that US stocks could face more selling this week driven by trend-following funds known as CTAs which have already hit sell triggers in the S&P"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its not even a conspiracy anymoreits the Lummis-Warsh playbook. The bill literally proposes selling gold to buy BTC. The Jan [--] gold crash looks like the 'Institutional Exit' before the legislation hits the floor. If the US starts rotating even 1% of its gold into Bitcoin the '$1M BTC' calls from October won't look like hyperbole; they'll look like a conservative estimate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020564980098019464"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"On Hartnetts 0-to-10 scale anything above [---] is an "Extreme Bullish" reading that historically triggers a 100% hit-rate sell signal for global equities. At [---] the market has entered what Hartnett calls "Peak Everything": peak positioning peak liquidity and peak inequality. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020629346721927263"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Morgan Stanley is hitting the nail on the head. While the S&P [---] is fighting 'Short Gamma' and CTA sell-triggers at [----] #LatAm is the only region with a 'fresh' investment cycle. The shift from consumption to FDI-led growth means this isn't just a commodity pumpits a structural re-rating. Were moving from the 'Magnificent 7' to the 'Resourceful 7' in the South. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020632196839539161"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The 'Early Innings' call makes sense when you look at the Multipolar World theme. Mexico & Brazil are effectively the 'neutral ground' for the US-China trade war. By positioning as the 'safe' supply chain alternative #latam is capturing the CAPEX that used to go to SE Asia. Its the ultimate hedge against the '9.6 Sell Signal' Hartnett is seeing in US tech. LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR LatAm's bull market is still in its early inning. From Morgan Stanley Research. https://t.co/3SRLNoaznR"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The "Early Innings" #LatAm Thesis Morgan Stanleys [----] outlook shifts Latin America from a "trade play" to a "structural investment" story. They argue that while the U.S. market is "late-cycle" (BofA's [---] signal) #LatAm is just beginning its multi-year expansion. +The FDI Supercycle: The "Multipolar World" is the top theme for [----]. LatAm is the primary beneficiary as multinationals prioritize supply chain control over low costs moving factories from Asia to Mexico & Brazil. +The Monetary Tailwind: With the Fed expected to cut 50bps by mid-2026 the Dollar softening typically triggers a"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The move from 110m to 112m isn't about cars; its about the Petrochemical tailwind. Vitol sees the 'East of Suez' demand for plastics and synthetics as a secular growth story that the West is ignoring. Even if we all drive Teslas the world is still going to be wrapped in oil-based products. This [----] update is the 'death of the bear case' for long-term oil majors. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020817403089703399"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its the most polite 'Bear Steepener' in history. The market is basically giving Kevin Warsh a 'hall pass' on the long end. By allowing the 10-year to drift to 4.23% without a TanTrum investors are signaling they prefer a higher term premium over a bloated Fed balance sheet. The danger isn't the 4.2%its if we wake up and its 4.5% because of a failed 30-year auction. Thats when the 'tootling' stops and the 'screaming' starts. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833428573139436 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833428573139436"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'liTTle aTTention' parT is whats most concerning. Yields are ignoring the soft labor data & focusing entirely on the Feb [--] TariFFs. Were seeing a regime shift where the 'Fed Put' is being replaced by 'Fiscal Fear.' If 10-year yields are rising while the economy is cooling it tells you the 'inflation protection' trade is already the dominant force for [----]. US yields tootling higher again but getting relatively little attention One suspects like so much in markets its the speed of the move not the direction of travel that worries people. US yields tootling higher again but getting"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Spot on. The MOVE Index (bond volatility) is masking a massive buildup of pressure in the 30-year. When the longest-duration asset in the world goes 'flat' for this long it usually ends in a 'convexity event.' We saw a similar 'dead' period in the summer of [----] right before the 10-year made its run to 5%. At 4.85% the market is essentially a coiled spring waiting for a reason to snap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020834650529157495"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Its a game of chicken between the #Fed & the #Treasury. The 30-year is flat because nobody wants to bet against Kevin Warshs cuts but nobody wants to buy into the Bessent deficit expansion. History shows that 'flatness' is usually just a lack of convictionand when conviction returns (likely during the March #FOMC) the move will be a 'gap up or gap down' not a slow drift. Buckling up is the only rational move. 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history. Buckle up. https://t.co/aWWkgROY8v 30yr U.S. Treasuries have never been this flat for this long in history."
X Link 2026-02-09T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The China directive is the first shoe to drop in the 'Financial Repression' era. If the Fed is forced to swallow the $300B+ in Treasuries currently held by Chinese banks to keep yields from hitting 5% weve oFFicially entered the 'Japanification' of the US. The diFFerence is Japan had a high savings rate to fund the debt; the US has a printing press. SchiFF is rightthe Fed is now the only player left in the r00m with an infinite balance sheet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020837548893818976"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The Bond Vigilantes are back but theyre wearing Chinese suits this time. This isn't just 'risk management'; it's a vote of no confidence in US fiscal discipline. If 10-year yields hit 4.5% on the back of this news the Fed will have no choice but to restart 'Emergency' QE. Schiff's 'Inflation Soaring' prediction hinges on whether the Fed prioritizes the Dollar or the Debt. History says they always choose the Debt. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020838087467622511"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A shift in the 'Safe Haven' narrative. When the world's largest industrial power advises its banks that Treasuries are a 'concentration risk' the very definition of a 'risk-free asset' is being challenged. This aligns with the 18-month gold-buying streak we've seen from the PBoC. They are effectively swapping 'Paper Promises' for 'Hard Assets' in real-time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020839264225800295"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Rising yields are doing the BoJ's dirty work for them. The market's 'Fiscal Fear' will force a 'Monetary Reality.' If Takaichi spends the BoJ must hike to defend the 2% inflation target. A higher terminal rate in Japan at the same time the Fed is trying to cut is a recipe for a $USDJPY collapse back toward [---]. Don't mistake a 'bear steepener' for a 'weak currency' signal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020863418257805407"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Warsh-Bessent 'Accordion' trade is brilliant if you're a borrower but teRRifying if you're a bondholder. @AndreasSteno is righTThis isn't 'Monetary Policy'; its 'Credit Engineering.' By draining reserves while cuTTing the Fed Funds rate they are trying to force banks to lend to the 'Real Economy' instead of parking cash at the Fed. Its the [----] playbook with an AI-productivity sticker slapped on the front. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020882265459372430"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The 'Spine of an Earthworm' comment hits hard because it captures the market's biggest fear: Credibility Loss. If Warsh pivots from 'Balance Sheet Critic' to 'Credit Bonanza Orchestrator' just to satisfy the Treasury then the 'Fed Independence' narrative is officially dead. We aren't trading a cycle anymore; we're trading a political mandate for 3% GDP growth at any cost. Investors are slowly but surely starting to acknowledge that Warsh is a "flexible man" and that his mandate is to orchestrate a 2005-2007 style credit creation bonanza in co-operation with Bessent Word-based analysis of his"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Three creditors one bridge. If Japan repatriates because of Takaichi and China exits because of the Feb [--] directive the 'Cayman Whale' is the only one left holding the $28T bag. A 56:1 leverage ratio on $1.85T of debt means a 2% move in yields wipes out the entire equity of the position. #MOVE at [--] isn't a sign of health; its the silence before a 'convexity' event. Everyone thinks Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. The Fed quietly documented four months ago that it's actually Cayman Islands hedge funds $1.85 trillion at up to 56:1 leverage the same weekend Japan's new PM"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The [--] Primary Dealers are the bottleneck. They cant intermediate $1.85T of hedge fund selling while Japan and China are also hiTTing the 'bid.' Were heading for a July [----] liquidity cliFF where the Treasury will have to decide: let yields spike to 6% or force the Fed into a 'Permanent QE' to save the plumbing. The backstop isn't just contested; its broken. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020900244087562577"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'Double Leverage' trade is finally here. For [--] months we saw the 'Strong Dollar / Strong Gold' paradox but now the plumbing is correcting. If the $CAD starts to outpace the $USD those #TSX miners are going to see a massive rerating as both the underlying metal and the local equity currency move in the same direction. The 'Short Squeeze' in the Loonie is just the signal that the 'Mining Cycle' has reached its peak intensity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020910814262149335 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020910814262149335"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The $CAD isn't just a 'Commodity Peso' anymore; it's an 'Anti-Debt' hedge. While the US is navigating the Warsh-Bessent credit expansion AND rising deficits #Canadas resource-heavy balance sheet looks relatively 'sounder' to global macro funds. If the #DXY breaks [--] the 'quiet' move in the #CAD will turn into a loud breakout. The fact that it's still heavily shorted makes the 'convexity' of this move even higher. The Canadian dollar is quietly breaking higher as the US dollar increasingly confirms the early stages of a major downtrend. Every gold bull market follows the same pattern: a mining"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Every gold bull market ends with an #EM and foreign currency rally and #Canada is the 'DM proxy' for that trade. We're seeing the exact same paTTern from the 2003-2007 era. When you combine the 45-year Silver 'Cup & Handle' breakout with a weakening $USD the $CAD becomes the most attractive high-liquidity play in the world. Buying the 'Canadian Peso' here is eFFectively buying a call option on the entire coMModity compleX. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020911689470750857"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Were Watching the Yen transition from a 'Carry Tool' to a 'Growth Proxy.' In [----] people feared higher JGB yields; in [----] they are cheering them because they signal that 'Sanaenomics' is actually working. When the Nikkei hits [-----] and the Yen strengthens its a sign of a regime shifT. Japan isn't the 'world's ATM' anymoreits the world's 'Value Play.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936044049318131"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The "Sanaenomics" Mandate Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis LandsLide victory (securing a two-thirds supermajority) has fundamentally changed how the market views Japanese debt. +The "Bullish" Deficit: Usually higher deficits weaken a currency. However @RyanDetrick is pointing ouT ThaT Takaichi's [--] trillion StimuluS and the SuSpenSion of the f00d tax are being viewed as a "growth shock." +Economic Resiliency: The market is beTTing ThaT This fiscal "baz00ka" wiLL finaLLy puLL Japan out of its multi-decade stagnation making the Yen a "growth currency" rather than just a "funding currency.""
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"2. The Yield-Strength Feedback L00p As of today the move in yields is doing the heavy lifting for the Yen: +JGB Yields Spiking: 10-year yields have jumped toward 2.3% and 40-year yields are hitting record levels above 4%. +The Repatriation: Higher domestic yields mean Japanese institutional investors (who own trillions in US Treasuries) are starting to bring their money home. This "repaTriaTion" creates maSSive demand for Yen pushing it stronger even as the government spends more"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"3. The "Carry Trade" Mirage @RyanDetrick 's "full circle" comment refers to the panic of August [----] (and several minor scares since). +The Unwind That Wasn't: The fear was that higher Japan rates would force global investors to dump US tech stocks to cover their Yen loans. +The [----] Reality: Because the NiKKei is soaring alongside the Yen it suGGests the move is driven by foreign inflows into Japanese equities rather than a forced liquidation of US assets. Investors are buying Japan because it looks like a "beacon of political stability" compared to the fiscal uncertainty in the UK AND the"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Were moving from a 'Consumer-Led' freight market to an 'Industrial-Led' one. The SONAR data on flatbed tender rejections vs. dry van tells the whole story. While the ports are quiet because of the post-tariFF import hangover the 'Industrial Heartland' is screaming for capacity to move infrastructure for the AI/Energy build. This is the first time in [--] years that the 'Inside the Box' economy is losing to the 'Outside the Box' economy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939218919321902"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This shift breaks the traditional 'Imports as a Proxy for GDP' model. In the 2010s if LA/Long Beach were soft the economy was soft. In [----] imports are soft because of nearshoring and inventory drawdown while domestic industrials are ramping due to the CAPEX explosion. If youre a carrier still waiting for the 'Retail Peak' youre going to miss the 'Industrial Pivot.' The 'Freight Alley' of the future is about moving machines not just sneakers. There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'Industrials Ramp' is the intended (and inevitable) consequence of the Feb [--] tariFF regime. ShiPPers aren't just 'waiting' for imports to get cheaper; they are ReRouting their entire supply chains to domestic nodes. @FreightAlley 's observation ThaT This is 'very diFFerenT Than The lasT DecaDe' is an undersTaTemenTiTs The ToTal dismantling of the 'Just-in-Time' import model in favor of a 'Just-in-Case' domestic industrial base. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020939794281271615"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Waller is essentially confirming the 'VaR Trap' of [----]. Mainstream firms treat crypto like a high-beta aPPendage; when the tariFF-induced volatility hit the Treasury market the risk models didn't care about the 'digital gold' narrativethey just saw a red line on a spreadsheet and hit 'SELL.' This is the growing pain of institutional adoption: crypto is now correlated to the very risk-oFF SignalS IT was suPPosed to #hedge againsT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020941393582068202"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Waller's 'Risk Positions' comment explains the $2.6 billion liquidation we saw last week. The 'Crypto Natives' were buying the dip but the 'Mainstream Firms' were being liquidated by their own risk deparTmenTs. This is the first time weve seen the Fed explicitly link institutional risk mandates to a crypto crash. Waller is basically saying: 'The banks are in the p00l now and theyre the ones splashing the water. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020942029639832021"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I LIKE this setup even more when you overlay the macro. You've got a bullish pennant forming exactly as China is being told to 'rein in' Treasury holdings and reAllocate. If that capital rotates from bonds TO coMMdities this pennant won't just breakit will gap UP. The neckline at $62.50 is the line in the sand for the buLLs"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The facT ThaT This pennanT is holding above the long-term average is key. In the previous two attempts oil failed to sustain the breakout because the dollar was too strong. Now with the 'Bessent-Warsh' credit expansion narrative taking hold the tailwind is finally there. Im watching that $68.50 level on Brent; a breakout there confirms the $70+ target is imminent. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020975759364358487"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This is the core of the 'Economic Freedom' #manifesto. Crypto shouldn't guarantee everyone gets a trophy; it should guarantee everyone gets a seat at the table. By diFFerentiating betwEEn oPPortunity and outcome @brian_armstrong is positioning #Coinbase as a tool for the 'Self-Sovereign Individual.' In a [----] world of rising fiscal dominance a neutral tokenized ledger is THE ONLY WAY to proTecT meriT-based wealTh creaTion. Crypto and tokenization will be a great equalizer giving billions a level playing field to pursue wealth creation. Equality of opportunity is worth pursuing. Equality of"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"In a fiat regime you don't run out of money; you run out of credibility. If the BoJ maintains negative real rates while Takaichi drops a 21T stimulus the JGB yield isn't a 'crisis'it's the market's way of telling the BoJ to catch up to reality. The #FX is the only real battlefield left. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020979118783737914"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"El-Erian is highlighting the 'Failure to Launch' for the doLLar buLLs. Testing [--] and failing so spectacularly suGGests that the 'Safe Haven' bid is being outweighed by structural 'Sell America' flows. Between Chinas move away from Treasuries AND the Takaichi supermajority in Japan the $DXY is losing its two biggest supports. Breaking [--] isn't just a technical move; it's a signal that the 'Warsh-Bessent' credit b00m is already being priced as a debasement trade. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020981951428166020"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Why "No One Forecasts This" The "Consensus" is currently trapped in two extremes: +The Bears: Expect a "Hard Landing" as high interest rates and the post-tariff inventory hangover crush the consumer. +The Hawks: Expect "Structural Inflation" to stay stuck at 3%+ forcing the Fed to stay higher for longer. + @AndreasSteno 's Middle Path: By identifying the "Manufacturing PMI" recovery early (which hit a 3-year high in cost growth but also a surge in factory ouTpuT last week) Steno is calling for a re-acceleration of GDP paired with a disinflationary trend. Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This is the classic 'Pre-CEO Clean Slate.' By suspending the buyback and taking the $4B impairment on renewables now the board is giving Meg O'Neill a 'de-risked' balance sheet when she starts in April. They are eSSentiaLLy admiTTing ThaT the 'Green BP' experiment was t00 expensive for a $65 oil environment. The 8-billion-barrel #Bumerangue discovery in Brazil is the new North StarBuyBacks are the sacrifice to fund that growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021168595397386483"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The 'Exorbitant Buyback' era for $BP is officially over. When UR net debt is at $22B and your peers (Shell/Exxon) are operating with much leaner ratios you don't have a choice. The market is punishing the stock (-5.6%) today but this is a long-overdue return to fiscal sanity. You can't lead the 'Energy Transition' if you're the most leveraged player in the patch. Strengthening the balance sheet is the only way to proTecT the dividend in [----]. BREAKING: British oil major BP suspends its $750 million quarterly buyback. The board says it will "fully allocate excess cash to accelerate"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The $4B write-down on solar and biogas is the real headline here. Its a total repudiation of the Looney/Auchincloss era. $BP is now pivoting to 'Value Fossil Fuels' to survive a cycle of oversupply and lower prices. Maintaining the dividend while cuTTing BuyBacks is a 'Barbell Strategy' to keep the institutional income funds haPPy while they scramble to fiX the debT. #BP is no longer an 'Energy Transition' stock; its a 'Brazilian Deepwater' stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021169224761086147"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This move puts $BP at odds with Shell and Exxon who have maintained their buybacks but aligns them with Equinor which slashed its program by 70% last week"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The "De-leveraging" Mandate $BP s decision to suspend the $750 million quarterly buyback is a direct response to rising debt AND falling profits. +The Debt Problem: Net debt stood at $22.2 billion at the end of [----]. While down from Q3 it remains far above the target range of $14$18 billion. +Profit Slump: BP reported a full-year [----] underlying profit of $7.5 billion a 16% drop from [----] largely due to the "steepest annual oil price drop since the COVID era". +The $4 Billion Write-down: The board also took a massive $4 billion impairment charge primarily on its solar (Lightsource bp) and"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"9 standard deviations is essentially a 'Black Swan' in ratio terms. We are seeing a complete decoupling of the 'Monetary Asset' (Gold) from the 'Industrial Bloodstream' (Oil). Historically these extremes don't last more than a few months. If the 'Warsh Credit Expansion' actually hits the real economy that 80x ratio will collapse toward 40x in a heartbeatmostly through Oil catching up. The 'Energy as Value' trade is officially the loneliest and likely most profitable trade of [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173029565305103"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"#Gold is pricing in Fiscal Failure (Debt/Independence) while #Oil is pricing in Physical Surplus (Shale/Soft China). The gap is the widest its been since the [----] anomaly. But remember: you can't build the 'AI Data Centers' or the 'Reshored Factories' the market is hyped about without moving physical atoms. The 'catch-up' potential isn't just a possibility; it's a physical necessity for the next leg of the cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021173728793469261"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The technicals are lining up with a fascinating fundamental shift. #Aluminum isn't just a metal anymore; it's a 'stored energy' play. As long as AI data centers keep outbidding smelters for baseload power that 'key resistance' level is going to eventually snap. $CENX at a 52-week high while the DXY is sub-97 is the perfect 'Real Assets' trade for [----]. If it breaks $3200/t the run to the [----] highs ($4000) becomes the base case. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021176550402466055 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021176550402466055"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Fundamental "Tailwind" The technical breakout isn't haPPening in a vacUUm. Two structural shifts are fueling the move: +The "Power Gatekeeper": Aluminum smelters are now directly competing with AI Data Centers for long-term electricity contracts. This is creating a "hard ceiling" on global supply as data centers can aFFord much higher power prices. Century is one of the few players with secured power through [----]. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Demand: Reshoring eFForts in the US have increased domestic aluMiNuM demand for EVs AND solar infrastructure just as imports from Canada & China"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The decoupling of the 'Virtual Barrel' from the physical glut is complete. If those Brent call spreads hit the 'Gamma Peak' near $75 dealers will be forced to buy into a ThiNNiNg markeT. Weve seen this movie before in Silver. In a world where #DXY is breaking down and every coMModity is a gaMMa-driven trade 'oversupply' is a [----] problem but a 'delta-hedging' squEEze is a right-now problem. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021201960704098509"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The 'Silver Road' analogy is chILLing for the bears. People are looking at the IEA's 4mb/d surplus forecast for [----] and shorting but theyre geTTing run over by The opTions Tape. If the gamma flip haPPens the fundamentals become iRRelevant. Are we seeing the same 'strike concentration' in the WTI-Brent spread or is this strictly a Brent-driven hunt for a geopolitical risk premium Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more sessions like this and oil could be taking "Silver Road" soon. All commodities are now gamma driven. Crazy volumes in Brent call spreads on Friday: a few more"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Marc is highlighting a critical regime shift. The fact that the US 10-year yield can't stay above 4.20% despite China's warnings about Treasury exposure suggests that 'recession fears' are now outweighing 'fiscal fears.' If we get a weak ADP print today that 4.20% level goes from a floor to a ceiling. The dollar's 'firmer bias' feels like a dead-cat bounce in a broader structural downtrend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021210795594432810"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Yen is the story of the week. Yesterdays 'outside down day' on $USDJPY was a massive technical reversal. As Marc points out JGB yields are softer even with Takaichis mandate which implies the market is pricing in 'stability' rather than 'fiscal chaos.' If the 10-year JGB settles comfortably at 2.25% while the US 10-year stays sub-4.20% the carry trade unwind is only JUST begINNING. The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Fink is confirming the [----] pivot: the era of the Fed being the only game in town is over. When interest payments consume 14% of the budget fiscal policy becomes the primary driver of the dollar's value. Swapping into 'Refinement' AND 'Nuclear' isn't just about safety; its about owning the bottleneck of the AI economy. If you cant TrusT the currency you have to oWn the atoMs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225163891548479"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The 'Monopoly Money' coMMent hits diFFerent when you realize China just started scaling back its Treasury exposure for its own banks. Fink is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' If the US can't hit that 3% growth target the 'debasement trade'moving into gold AND infrastructureisn't a choice its a survival mechanism for Kapital. BlackRock isn't just warning about it; they are literally building the rails for it through tokenization of these real-world aSSetS. "Interest on the US debt is ultimately what's predicted to destroy the US economy. That debt payments will eventually grow out of control"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Interesting that Fink mentions 'Nuclear' AND 'Refinement.' In [----] these are the new 'Hard Money.' You can't print a uranium enrichment facility or a modular nuclear reactor. As the dollar index (DXY) breaks sub-97 the market is voting for tangible energy production over fiat promises. Fink's warning is a roadmap for the 'Great Rotation' from paper wealth to physical sovereignty. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021225794329100517"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Zeberg is identifying the 'Confidence Gap.' The Fed is still looking at 'solid' GDP from Q4 but todays 0.0% retail print (and -0.1% control group) is the real-time truth. When discretionary spending in furniture and clothing drops like this the feedback loop has already reached the household level. The Fed won't 'rescue' until the credit market freezes and by then the 'Blow-OFF Top' Zeberg warned about will be a distant memory. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229523417633050"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The market is desperate for the 'Warsh Rescue' but the 10-year yield sliding to 4.16% today tells you the bond market sees the loop starting. Retail sales aren't just 'bad'; they're 'stagnant' in an environment of rising costs. The Fed is trapped between sticky 2.7% inflation and a consumer that has officially stopped buying. Zebergs 'Titanic' metaphor is looking more accurate with every data release. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021229900741382318"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Vortexa is highlighting the great [----] #diVergence: a 'Physical Balance' in mainstream grades vs. a 'Paper Surplus' in the forecasts. The re-mainstreaming of Venezuela is the real game-changer here. By allowing those barrels back into the transparent market via GL [--] the US is eFFectively 'cleaning UP' the shadow fleet. It turns out the 'surplus' was just a maTTer of labeling. Crude oil markets are facing rapid changes and surprising turns these days. [----] was supposed to be the year of the big crude oil surplus but at least at the beginning we see a largely balanced market. That is when"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Fascinating curve structure. That 'depreSSed beLLy' past [----] is the IEA surplus forecast perfectly priced in. But the 'Prompt Steepening' in Brent suggests we have an immediate inventory discoNNect. If OECD stocks are as low as Goldman and Vortexa suggest that 70c Brent #backwardation could hit $1.50 before the '2026 Surplus' even starts to show up in the data. WTI is the laggard because the US is the only place with a real buFFer. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021281158793744752"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The narrowing of the WTI backwardation while Brent steepens is a massive signal for the Brent-WTI spread ($4.90 today). If the 'Venezuela Quarantine' continues to keep US refiners stocked with domestic/local heavy barrels WTI is headed for full #contango by March. Brent is taking the 'Silver Road' on prompt tightness while WTI is already looking at the [----] glut. The trade isn't 'Long Oil' its 'Long Brent/Short WTI. The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front depressed belly into contango past"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Brent/WTI divergence is the real 'Value Trade' of the week. Brents 70c backwardation is a physical alarm bell that the [----] 'Surplus' hasn't arrived in the North Sea yet. Meanwhile WTI at 20c is telling the truth about the US #shale #glut. We are looking at a 'split-screen' market: Geopolitical panic in the Atlantic vs. Inventory reality in the Gulf. The Brent prompt-spread is the only thing keeping the 'Supercycle' HOPE alive. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282988789518373"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"We've moved past 'Island Encircling' exercises. Hu is signaling that Beijing's patience with the 'incremental' escalation of arms sales has enDeD. A $20B deal including #IBCS integration isn't just a sale; it's a structural shift in the Strait's military balance. If 'real actions' mean a perMAnent MAritime quarantine the global supply chain for semiconductors ( $TSMC ) is the first casualty. This is the 'Monopoly Money' era mEEting 'Hard Power' reality. If the Financial Times report is true and the US sells $20 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan it will certainly trigger a very serious"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Hus inclination toward 'real action' matches the internal pressure Xi is facing after the December drills failed to stop the next package. With the KMT already blocking parts of the defense budget in Taipei Beijing sees a window to fracture the US-Taiwan relationship. If the #FT report is true we should expect more than just 'Justice Mission 2026'we're looking at a fundamental change in the 'Status Quo.' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021290675568775575"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The bearish divergence on the WTI daily is the 'tell.' Were seeing a classic MoMenTuM hand-oFF. #Gold is correcting because its over-owned (9% drop from the highs) while #Oil is trying to boTTom because its under-owned (lowest net-longs since 2014). The 'Double Top' at $66.60 is a temporary ceiling but if the $DXY beaR Rally stalls at [-----] the roTaTion into 'Real Energy' will leave the paper ShortS stranDeD. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021298479557988677"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The fact that miners are green while Silver is -2% is the ultimate sign that the 'forced liquidation' phase is over. We saw the same paTTern in early 2025: miners boTTomed tWo weeks before the metal made its big move. With the 10-year yield struggling to stay above 4.20% the 'Real Yield' headWind is fading. Schiffs miners arent just holding UP; theyre froNt-ruNNiNg the Next CPI-driveN squEEze. @PeterSchiff Schiff is right about the #decoupling. At $5000 Gold even the 'high-cost' miners are seeing 60%+ net margins. The relative strength in $EPGIX today shows that investors are looking past the"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"#Miners are the 'Income Play' of the supercycle. With names like Pan African & AngloGold hiking dividends theyve become a defensive alternative to a shaky Treasury market. SchiFF is spoTTing the 'Breadth Improvement'when gold miners refuse to break their February 3rd lows the boTTom is sTaTisTicALLY #confirmed. The 'Silver Road' is still open; its just being repaved today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021304201415139548"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Fascinating that Bessent is the one defending the 'ample reserves' regime. It shows that even the most vocal critics of QE (like Warsh and Bessent) have to respect the regulatory liquidity needs of the big banks. A one-year 'sit back' period suggests that the 'New Accord' is more about long-term reform than short-term market shocks. This is a massive 'risk-ON' signal for duratiON. @NickTimiraos Bessent is performing 'verbal yield curve control.' By taking the immediate threat of aggressive QT oFF the table he's giving the 10-year yield room to seTTle beloW 4.20%. The 'Warsh Fed' is eVolVing"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"BofA is coNfirMing the 'LeVerAGE Play' of [----]. When AISC is locked at $1600 and the metal is at $5000 every $100 move in Gold is pure boTTom-line profiT. The market is still valuing these companies like #Gold is at $2500. This 8x EV/EBITDA multiple compared to Techs 22x is the widest 'Value gaP' weve seen in a DecaDe. The rerating won't be a crawl; itll be a VerTical jumP when the earningS surpriseS Start hiTTing this quarter. Bank of America: PM miners are the cheapest commodity sector - Lowest EV/EBITDA - Highest FCF yield Despite higher metal prices valuations have not rerated. At current"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'FCF Yield' is the real story here. Mining stocks have transitioned from 'speculative beTs' to 'Income Engines.' At current cash flow levels we are looking at a wave of massive special dividends AND buybacks. BofAs note suGGests that the 'Smart Money' is roTaTing inTo miners noT jusT for The gold price buT for the 10%+ yield-on-cost potential. The 'Monopoly Money' exit is leading straight into the highest-yielding hard aSSetS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021358781209166238"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Interesting that BofA expects production to drop 2% while prices are at record highs. That 'Inelastic Supply' is the ultimate insurance for this trade. If youre a 'FCF Machine' in a market where your competitors are shrinking you command a preMiuM. The 0.75x P/NAV is a historical anomaly that only exists because of the 'Warsh Shock' in January. That gap is closing fasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021359273041608928"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Lyn is rightfiscal gravity alWays Wins. The [----] 'TariFF WaLL' only succEEded in ReRouting Chinese capital into the Global South creating a $1.2T surplus that the IMF now has to manage. BeSSents plea to the G7 is a quiet admiSSion that bilateral trade wars can't stop a manufacturing superpower that has already diversified its customer base. The 'coLLapse' wasn't a reality; it was a hope masquerading as a forecasT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377118622392679"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The irony is peak [----]. After a year of 'Decoupling' rhetoric the US is now asking International Institutions to help 'rebalance' the very surplus the tariFFs WERE suPPosed to desTrOY. Chinas ability to run a $1.2T surplus while US retail sales hit 0% (todays data) shows who has the real productive capacity. The 'coLLapse' analysts are stiLL l00king at [----] spreadshEEts in a [----] world. Imagine being one of the analysts that keeps saying China will collapse soon. Then the U.S. Treasury Secretary comes out saying hopefully the IMF and G7 can help deal with Chinas $1 trillion trade surplus"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Bessent's move to the #IMF is a #pivoT from 'Hard Power' to 'Bureaucratic Pressure.' China proved its resilience by completing its 12M metric ton soybean commitment while simultaneously breaking the $1T SURPLUS barrier. As Lyn notes the G7 cant 'deal' with a SURPLUS that is driven by 5.5% export growth in sectors the West hasn't even scaled yet. The 'Tsunami' Macron described is already on the shore. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377766080250031 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021377766080250031"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The bid won't come from sovereign states; it'll come from 'Captive Private Capital.' $JPM is already spoTTing the shift: Stablecoins AND Money Market Funds are the new 'recyclers' for the dollar system. China isn't just dumping; they're swapping 'Paper IOUs' for 'Physical Hegemony' (#EVs #Chips #Gold). The 1.2T surplus is the fuel for the next superpower era not the US Treasury. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021378376687034828 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021378376687034828"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'Buyer Gap' is the $38T question. With China's banks told to pare holdings and Japan distracted by the Yen we are moving toward a 'Mandatory Fed Bid.' Schiff is right: if the Fed becomes the primary buyer of the surplus China is dumping the [----] 'Disinflation' narrative dies instantly. We're trading a Trade deficiT for a permanent inflation tax. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021378874043474348 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021378874043474348"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 0.0% retail print vs. the 1.2T surplus is the ultimate 'K-Shape' global macro signal. The US consumer is at stall speed while China's productive engine is at redline. If China stops bidding the 10-year the term premium has nowhere to go but up. Bessent can talk about 'Ample Reserves' all he wants but the plumbing is leaking. The 'Dollar System' is missing its biggest plumber. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021379198217281914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021379198217281914"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The vertical software names (Veeva Guidewire) are the real sleepers on this list. General AI can't replicate the [--] years of regulatory compliance and specialized workflows built into Tyler Tech or Guidewire. $JPM is betting that the 'Application Layer' is safer than the market thinks because the 'Switching Cost' is measured in years not days. If you're looking for #AI #resistance folloW the regulatory moaTs. 🚨 BREAKING: JP Morgan analysts just compiled a list of [--] software stocks that they believe 'are AI resistant'. What do you think of their list https://t.co/Lazgi36dc7 🚨 BREAKING: JP"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$VEEV & $GWRE"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The "Oil & Software Floor" Insight (Strategic) Fascinating timing. We're seeing a monthly 'Double Bottom' and bullish RSI divergence in Oil ( $WTIC ) at the $64 level and now $JPM is calling a floor in #Software. Its a rotation back into 'Productive Capacity.' If software earnings growth hits that projected 16.8% in [----] these 'AI-resistant' names are trading at a maSSive discount to their 5-year averages. The 'Software Shock' of January was the final capitulation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021408241591144934 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021408241591144934"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$JPM is identifying the 'Infrastructure Layer' as the wiNNer. The market is pricing software like it's [----] and the internet is about to kill every incumbent. But the incumbents this time (Microsoft ServiceNow CrowdStrike) have the daTa. An AI is only as good as the daTa iTs Trained ON and Snowflake/Datadog own the SiloS. This 8x EV/Sales valuation is a gift for long-term holders who understand that 'AI Resistance' is really just 'Structural StickineSS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021410269486792747 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021410269486792747"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Why the "AI Resistance" Narrative MaTTer$ $JPM's report explicitly calls out the "Seat-Based Pricing" fear. Critics argue that if AI makes workers 50% more eFFicient companies will buy 50% fewer "seats" (licenses). JPM's Counter-Point: High-quality software firms will pivot to "Value-Based" OR "Usage-Based" pricing. They expect software profit growth to hit 16.8% by the end of [----] outperforming the broader S&P [---]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021410904135405939 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021410904135405939"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Breaking Down the [--] "Resilient" Stocks The $JPM thesis is that companies with high switching costs proprietary data and complex workflows won't be easily replaced by a chatbot. Instead AI will become a margin-expanding tailwind for them"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Timiraos is highlighting the 'Maturity Mirage.' With 67% of the debt locked into fixed-rate coupons the Fed is steering a tanker not a speedboat. Even if Warsh cuts 300bps the Treasury is still paying [----] prices on trillions of 10-year notes. The 'Trillion Dollar Saving' isn't a [----] reality; it's a [----] hope. The real story isn't the rate it's the $10 trillion rollover coming due this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021626899647152282 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021626899647152282"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The math doesn't lie: 33% of our debt matures within [--] months. Thats the only 'active' lever the Fed has. To get to $1T in savings youd need a 10% rate cut which would imply a total economic collapse. @NickTimiraos is reminding The markeT ThaT The 'InTerest Bill' is The ultimate fiscal constraint on the Trump [---] agenda. The 'Monopoly Money' era is over; we're now paying for the 2021-2024 party. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021627350547398933 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021627350547398933"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The [----] benchmark revision is The mosT imporTanT daTa poinT of the year. Averaging only [-----] jobs per month for all of last year is a 'Hiring Recession' by any other name. Zandis focus on 'April' as the peak is the signal the Fed needs. If job growth outside of essential services has stopped the 'Warsh Rescue' (rate cuts) can't come fast enough. The January surge feels like a seasonal anomaly in a structural decline. I wouldnt exhale with todays job numbers. The job market remains fragile and highly vulnerable. Yes payroll employment increased by [------] in January but given the big downward"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Capital is exiting 'Legacy Services' and looking for 'Productive Capacity.' If Altruist can scale this the #AUM model is dead by [----]. The real winners aren't the firms but the 'Captive Private Capital' that gets to keep that 1% fee for themselves. The 'Middleman Tax' is being repealed by an algorithm. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021637402620776466 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021637402620776466"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The [----] 'Goldilocks' isn't about the consumer; it's about the Supply Side. Between the [----] Reconciliation Act and the AI productivity surge we're seeing 2.2%+ GDP growth with cooling #PCE. The Fed isn't cuTTing To 'save' The economy; They're cuTing because the 'Neutral Rate' has shifted. We're in a RaRe WiNdoW Where groWth is the driver but inflatioN is the paSSenger. Here is why the Fed may be able to cut several times despite what appears to be a comeback in the US economy Goldilocks is incoming https://t.co/aAsDiXLUf7 Here is why the Fed may be able to cut several times despite what"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'Goldilocks' trade is a necessity not just a luxury. With the US interest bill hiTTing $970B the Fed has to walk the TighTrope: keep growth high enough to generate taX revenue but rates low enough to keep the Treasury from insolvency. @AndreasSteno 's 'several cuts' thesis is the only way to manage a $1.9T deficit in a 'solid' growth environment. The Fed is becoming the Treasurys besT friend aGAIN. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021653434642952460 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021653434642952460"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Ugly is an UNDERstatement. A 1.4bps tail when the WI was at 4.163% shows that the 'Risk-Free Rate' is feeling very risky. With the $20B Taiwan arms deal looming and China paring back its Treasury bid the 'Invisible Hand' is demanding a higher premium. We are seeing the 'Monopoly Money' era transition into the 'Show Me the Yield' era. 4.177% isn't high enough for the current deficit. Ugly auction: 10Y high yield 4.177% WI 4.163% 1.4bps tail. Biggest tail since Aug [----] Ugly auction: 10Y high yield 4.177% WI 4.163% 1.4bps tail. Biggest tail since Aug 2024"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"HFI is catching the 'Paper vs. Physical' divergence perfectly. Wall Street analysts are busy writing [----] 'Oil at $55' notes based on models while the Brent 1-2 spread is screaming that theres no oil available in the North Sea today. When timespreads Hit HigHs the 'surplus' is a myth. The physical market doesn't lie; it just hasn't told the paper market the truth YET. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021673382845018537 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021673382845018537"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Watch the 1.4bps 'tail' in the 10Y auction today alongside these Brent spreads. While the bond market is struggling with U.S. debt supply the oil market is struggling with a lack of physical supply. The 1-2 backwardation is a trap for the shorts who sold the 'IEA surplus' narrative. The 'alarm' isn't a crash; the alarm is that we're under-supplied into the spring turnaround. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021675246529491221 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021675246529491221"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@michaelbatnick This reflects #liquidity #fragmentationsystematic flows ETF redemptions and margin calls hitting individual names while passive index exposure masks the damage"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"115 S&P stocks down 7%+ in [--] days. Index down 1.5%. This isn't a bugit's the anatomy of a stealth bear market"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Wild market = regime change. Three Trades for the #dispersion ERA. #Trade1: Long Dispersion/Short Index. The S&P is lying to you. Buy straddles on $XRT (retail) or $IGV (software) sell straddles on $SPY. The correlation breakdown is the AlphA. #Trade2: Long Semis/Short SaaS. The AI capex cycle (Nvidia demand "through r00f") vs. AI disruption (Autodesk -24% YTD) is a secular pair trade. Software is the new value trap. #Trade3: Long Vol in TariFF-Exposed/Short Vol in Domestic. IEEPA Supreme Court decision pending . Binary outcome = long vol in retail/import-exposed short vol in Dow industrials."
X Link 2026-02-13T02:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: $TLT strength suggests investors are betting against further yield spikes despite fiscal headwinds. Energy: Oil resilience complicates inflation expectations but bond bulls argue supply-side shocks are fading. AI & Tech: Equity volatility (semis vs. software rotations) makes bonds attractive as a stabilizer. China: Policy easing boosts commodities but global capital still seeks safety in U.S. durationreinforcing $TLT flows. $TLT is breaking out. I am long with 60% of my portfolio - [----] is the year of the Bond https://t.co/tzaxryN4fx $TLT is breaking out."
X Link 2026-02-13T02:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Trump's pressure on Powell to cut rates creates political risk premium in long bonds. If the Fed accommodates (new dovish Chair appointment) $TLT wins on rate cuts. If the Fed resists (inflation credibility) $TLT loses on bear steepening. The 60% allocation is a bet on Fed subordination to political pressure. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022141380118655274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022141380118655274"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"-Why February Structural Friction: +Earnings season fatigue: By mid-February the catalyst of Q4 earnings is priced +Valuation reset: After January's "January Effect" and Santa Claus rally February is when profit-taking meets tax-loss harvesting from prior year losers +Policy uncertainty: New administration policies (2026: Trump tariffs at 13.5% average rates) create binary event risk https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022142874180018499 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022142874180018499"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🔎 Plumbing Analysis Broadening market: More sectors participating in the rally is usually healthyit reduces concentration risk. Leadership shift: But when leadership migrates to defensive sectors (#Energy #Staples) it signals caution. Investors are hedging against inflation persistence (Energy) and consumer resilience under stress (Staples). Mechanics: Passive flows keep indices elevated but sector rotation reveals investor anxiety about growth durability. Tech Communication Services and Financials are the risk-on engineswithout them breadth looks hollow. S&P [---] A broadening market is"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🔎 Plumbing Analysis Extreme leverage phase: The chart shows investor margin debt relative to GDP at historically elevated levelssimilar to peaks in 1999/2000 2007/08 and 2021/22. Mechanics: High leverage amplifies risk-on behavior fueling equity rallies but leaving markets fragile. Any forced deleveraging (margin calls liquidity squeezes) can cascade into systemic stress. Historical rhyme: Each prior leverage peak coincided with market instabilitydotcom bust GFC post-COVID tightening. The current setup suggests vulnerability despite strong headline indices. We appear to be in the extreme"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🧵 #AI Deflation vs. Long Bonds Is $TLT the Real #AIart Trade Everyone is long #AI. But what if the real trade is long duration The thesis is simple: #AI replaces labor with compute. Compute collapses unit labor costs. Labor costs drive services inflation. If #AI scales inflation breaks. Thats the supply-side deflation argument. McKinsey estimates up to 30% of work hours could be automated by [----]. Penn Wharton projects a productivity lift peaking early next decade. If productivity structurally rises inflation structurally falls. And if inflation falls sustainably below 2% Long bonds win. Why"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Sticky yields and heavy issuance keep pressure on growth sectors making defensives relatively attractive. Energy: Oil volatility sustains inflation hedging demand reinforcing defensive leadership. AI: Techs weakness is notableAI enthusiasm props semis but broader software/comm services are sliding echoing late-cycle fragility. China: Global demand uncertainty adds stress to tech exports while staples benefit from domestic resilience. Breadth is expanding but it's expanding into the wrong sectors. 19% of Consumer Staples $XLP stocks are at new highs while"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Headline & core CPI both at 2.5% YoY. Inflation plumbing stabilizingdisinflation broadening across goods & services. CPI at 2.5% = regime shift. Inflation tail risks fading bond vigilantes losing grip. Macro narrative turning supportive. 3m annualized CPI collapsing. Headline & core at 2.5%. Disinflation momentum building beneath the surface. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022316467396501522 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022316467396501522"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Bond vigilantes lose leverage when inflation consistently undershoots forecastsduration trades gain credibility. Energy: Despite sanctions and supply risks oil hasnt reignited inflation undermining hawkish assumptions. AI: Disinflation supports capital-intensive investment cycles lowering funding costs for AI infrastructure. China: Tepid demand from China reinforces global disinflation countering fears of commodity-driven inflation resurgence Another SOFT inflation surrpise. It has become a bit of a theme and we are increasingly convinced that inflation"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Brent options shift: 40k May [--] calls = real gamma risk. Outright calls force futures hedging unlike spreads/flies. #oott Options plumbing matters: spreads were noise outright calls are signal. Gamma hedging could amplify crude volatility into April. 40k May [--] Brent calls dealer gamma exposure. Futures hedging flows likely to magnify moves near strike. #energy I've tweeted earlier about record volumes of Brent options but those were call spreads flies and rolls which had smaller impact on futures. Yest 40k of outright [--] May calls (along with a few other strikes) went through which could"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Distorted forecasts opaque leverage shadow flowsmarkets erode when truth is sidelined. Transparency is the only sustainable hedge. Cultures have many differing views of morality but all around the world and for thousands of years being truthful is arguably the most common one. A culture cannot long persist on falsities. On open lying. This cycle ends only when truth becomes principal currency again. Cultures have many differing views of morality but all around the world and for thousands of years being truthful is arguably the most common one. A culture cannot long persist on falsities. On"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DeItaone Summer demand + U.S.Iran tensions = OPEC+ confidence to hike output. Brent supported but cohesion will be tested. #macro"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"40k May Brent calls meet OPEC+ tilt: futures hedging flows + output hikes could magnify volatility into spring. #energy OPEC+ TILTS TOWARD APRIL OUTPUT HIKE OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil production increases from April sources say as summer demand picks up and prices remain supported by U.S.Iran tensions. The eight key members including Saudi Arabia and Russia meet March [--]. No final OPEC+ TILTS TOWARD APRIL OUTPUT HIKE OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil production increases from April sources say as summer demand picks up and prices remain supported by U.S.Iran tensions. The eight"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""La #IA no es magia. Es un amplificador. Si le metes instrucciones vagas te devuelve resultados vagos. As de simple. Lo que realmente marca la diferencia no es tener acceso a Kling [---] o a la ltima herramienta del momento. Es lo que t le das:" @andresyoutubee"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$BABA $BYDDY $BIDU $CICOY #HuaweiTechnologies $NIO This designation doesnt immediately ban U.S. investment but it raises compliance risk. Funds with #ESG or national security mandates may be forced to divest and future sanctions or restrictions could follow. #Implication: The move escalates financial decoupling signaling that even globally integrated firms are now viewed through a geopolitical lens. PENTAGON ADDS ALIBABA TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BAIDU TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BABA $BYDDY $BIDU $NIO"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"U.S. defense depletion shows industrial mismatch. Rebuilding capacity = smelting refining mining surge commodiTy BULL markeT Rebuilding the US military will ignite a massive commodity bull market The most important lesson of WW II was to design military applications so that the existing US industry could produce them en masse. Today the US designs them based on whats possible under ideal https://t.co/C9TAO4qGkq Rebuilding the US military will ignite a massive commodity bull market The most important lesson of WW II was to design military applications so that the existing US industry could"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Smelting refining and mining demand would surge igniting a broad commodity bull market across metals energy inputs and logistics"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DeItaone Chinas gold surge looks speculative: leverage + futures trading up jewelry demand down. Bubble risk rising. #commodities"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Gold isnt defensive in Chinaits speculative. Futures leverage + ETF flows = bubble dynamics. *Volatility aheaD #macro CHINA GOLD MARKET FLASHING BUBBLE WARNINGS Capital Economics says Chinas gold surge increasingly looks speculative not defensive. Rising leverage and heavy futures trading point to bubble-like conditions raising the risk of sharp volatility. Jewelry demand is falling but CHINA GOLD MARKET FLASHING BUBBLE WARNINGS Capital Economics says Chinas gold surge increasingly looks speculative not defensive. Rising leverage and heavy futures trading point to bubble-like conditions"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🧵 Chinas Gold Rally: Hedge or Leverage Capital Economics drops the warning: This isnt just safe-haven demand. Its leverage. Chinas recent gold surge looks less like insurance buying and more like speculative acceleration. Heres whats really driving it: Retail leverage is rising. Futures. Warrants. Margin-funded ETF exposure. Volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged. Net-long positioning Extended. Thats not quiet central-bank accumulation. Thats heat. Capital Economics flags bubble-like characteristics. Rapid ETF inflows. Crowded futures positioning. Momentum feeding momentum."
X Link 2026-02-13T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🔎 Plumbing Analysis Storage dynamics: Floating storage appears to have peaked while onshore inventories (exChina) are lower than expected. Chinas #SPR build is the exceptionacting as a swing buyer with the ability to weaponize reserves to cap price spikes. Mechanics: The healthier inventory picture challenges the 4mb/d surplus and $40 oil bearish consensus. Instead the market looks tighter with OPEC+ potentially emboldened to hike production in April. Implication: OPEC+ abandoned the paper barrel cut playbook and opted for rampups eating into spare capacity. For now this strategy is"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The restart of talks between Russia and the United States is not just political symbolism. It represents a potential recalibration of global financial architecture. Since [----] markets have adapted to fragmentation sanctions and alternative payment systems. If [----] marks the beginning of structured re-engagement the next phase will not be about isolation but about controlled reintegration. And in global markets structure matters more than headlines. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022397938148753910 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022397938148753910"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Greater transparency reduces risk premia in oil markets potentially easing inflation volatility priced into bonds. Energy: U.S. Gulf refiners benefit from heavy crude supply diversification reducing reliance on Canadian and Middle Eastern barrels. AI & Tech: Transparency in commodity benchmarks mirrors the broader push for data integritypricing clarity is critical for algorithmic trading and risk models. Geopolitics: Venezuelan crude flows to the U.S. Gulf highlight shifting sanctions dynamics and pragmatic energy diplomacy. This is an interesting oil"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: If Bitcoin stabilizes it reduces systemic risk perception easing pressure on risk premia in bonds. Energy: Mining economics improve when BTC reboundsenergy demand for hash power could rise again. AI & Tech: Crypto resilience supports broader fintech narratives especially around tokenization and decentralized infrastructure. China: Global flows matterChinese capital restrictions push speculative demand offshore amplifying ETF dynamics in the U.S Our call: the lows are in for Bitcoin. Below we see that $IBIT had a clear selling climax with a record level of"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Trader_Dante Thats a sharp psychological and structural observation. The #FESX (Euro Stoxx [--] futures) trades with lower volatility tighter ranges and more structured rhythm than #NQ (Nasdaq futures) which is notorious for erratic bursts algorithmic whipsaws and emotional traps"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Transocean + Valaris: fewer rigs higher spec. Base case $3B FCF upside $6B. Market mispricing quality shift in oFFshore drilling. One of the beautiful things about investing in equities is that from time to time markets do things that make absolutely no sense. Thats exactly why stocks remain the greatest wealth creation tool in existence. Let me explain. In [----] Transocean operated a fleet of [---] https://t.co/Zl6Aum2hNV One of the beautiful things about investing in equities is that from time to time markets do things that make absolutely no sense. Thats exactly why stocks remain the greatest"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Fixed Income: Stronger FCF improves credit metrics reducing refinancing risk for offshore drillers. Energy: Offshore rigs are back in demand as shallow reserves deplete and majors pivot to deepwater. AI & Tech: The narrative parallels tech capex cyclesquality of assets matters more than raw quantity. Geopolitics: Offshore drilling is strategically important for energy security especially as Middle East volatility persists. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022441082911363229 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022441082911363229"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"+Price can be manipulated. Volume cant. Dr. David Pauls reminder: conviction shows up in flows not headlines. +Big players can move price but not volume. Watch the footprintvolume is the truth serum of markets. +Price conviction. Volume confirms. Manipulation fades when flows dont back it up. #markets Big players Can Easily Manipulate the price but not the volume Dr David Paul. https://t.co/RaW8bG5tLh Big players Can Easily Manipulate the price but not the volume Dr David Paul. https://t.co/RaW8bG5tLh"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Bill AckMAL JUST IN: Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has failed to beat the S&P [---] over the last [--] yrs -SPY: +73% -Pershing Square: +65% All that DD and work just to underperform a passive index fund It's a reminder that it's VERY difficult to beat the S&P [---] over a long time horizon https://t.co/nDSPYCfX8h JUST IN: Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has failed to beat the S&P [---] over the last [--] yrs -SPY: +73% -Pershing Square: +65% All that DD and work just to underperform a passive index fund It's a reminder that it's VERY difficult to beat the S&P [---] over a long time horizon"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Dam is Breaking. 🌊 The CEO of Goldman Sachs just sent a signal. "Very very large IPOs." "Unprecedented in size." After a two-year drought the 'IPO window' isn't just opening. Its being blown off its hinges. But don't mistake activity for ease. The market is shifting from Stagnation to Velocity. The Great Unlocking For [--] months liquidity was a desert. Now the "unprecedented" is arriving. [--]. For the Markets:If the giants go the mid-caps follow. The "wait and see" era is over. The "do or die" era has begun. [--]. For the Talent:IPO lockups expiring = Wealth creation. Wealth creation ="
X Link 2026-02-13T23:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🔎 Plumbing Analysis FCF trajectory: Oracle Meta Google Amazon and Microsoft collectively peaked in trailing 4quarter free cash flow around Q3 [----] with another surge into late [----]. Projection: By Q4 [----] the forecast shows a sharp declinebillions in cash flow vanishing. Implication: The poof moment is the recognition that even the most dominant platforms are not immune to capex cycles margin compression and saturation. Poof and its gone. https://t.co/Edc3b5DlAV Poof and its gone. https://t.co/Edc3b5DlAV"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@KatieMiller This isnt just about capacityits about trajectory. Solars growth curve is exponential while coals is terminal"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The [--] GW figure: This represents a massive construction pipeline. For comparison the U.S. installed a record-breaking amount of solar in [----] (around [--] GW) so maintaining a pipeline of [--] GW slated for [--------] indicates sustained industrial momentum"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Surpassing Coal: While solar will soon surpass coal in terms of installed capacity (nameplate capacity) it is important to note that coal plants still typically run for more hours per day than solar farms. Therefore in terms of actual electricity generation coal will likely remain ahead for a little while longer until battery storage scales up enough to push solar power into the evening hours. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022644050713538996 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022644050713538996"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Equities: Miners with existing brownfield assets (expandable production) are better positioned than explorers. Macro: Copper is central to electrificationEVs grids renewables. Demand is sticky supply is slow. Psychology: Investors often underestimate how long shortages persisthigher prices are not just spikes they can be structural. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022930898438459414 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022930898438459414"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌱 Explorers / Greenfield Developers (High Risk Long Lead Times)"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"In a structural shortage brownfield leverage = nearterm cash flow while explorers = longdated call options on copper supercycle"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Copper Giant Resources Corp. (TSXV: CGNT) es una empresa junior de exploracin minera enfocada en el desarrollo de proyectos de cobre de alta calidad en las Amricas. Su activo principal es el proyecto Mocoa un depsito porfrico de cobre-molibdeno ubicado en el departamento de Putumayo al sur de Colombia. Respaldada por el influyente inversor minero Frank Giustra (a travs de Fiore Group con aproximadamente el 11% de las acciones) la compaa se posiciona como una apuesta de alto potencial en el contexto del superciclo del cobre impulsado por la transicin energtica y la escasez estructural de"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Ubicacin e Infraestructura El proyecto Mocoa se encuentra en la Cinturn Jursico de Cobre de los Andes una regin geolgicamente favorable comparable con depsitos gigantes en Ecuador (como #Warintza y #Mirador). Est a [--] km de la ciudad de Mocoa con acceso a infraestructura clave: carreteras nacionales lneas de alta tensin cercanas (230 kV) puerto (Tumaco a [---] km) y aeropuerto"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Mocoa es un depsito porfrico clsico con mineralizacin bulk (de gran volumen) desde superficie abierta en todas direcciones. Incluye zonas de alta ley en brechas y corredores. Esto posiciona a Mocoa como uno de los mayores depsitos no desarrollados de cobre y molibdeno con [------] millones de lb en equivalente cobre. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022942468082200646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022942468082200646"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Exploracin Reciente (2025-2026) La compaa ha completado programas agresivos de perforacin (14.000 m planeados). Resultados destacados incluyen intervalos largos como [-----] m @ 042% Cu y 005% Mo. En enero [----] anuncios confirmaron extensin hacia el sur (target La Estrella) con grados superiores al modelo de recursos y mineralizacin porfrica continua ms all del footprint actual. Esto sugiere potencial para expansin districtal y upgrade de recursos inferidos a indicados"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Metalurgia y Potencial Econmico Pruebas preliminares muestran excelentes recuperaciones (92% Cu hasta 97% Mo) con concentrados limpios y sin elementos deletreos significativos. El molibdeno como subproducto aade valor (Mocoa tiene uno de los mayores contenidos no desarrollados de Mo globalmente). No hay PEA (Estudio Econmico Preliminar) publicado an pero la compaa planea uno para mediados/finales de [----]. Comparaciones con minas recientes (#Mirador #CobrePanam #Quellaveco) sugieren potencial para una operacin a gran escala (300-400 kt/a Cu) beneficiada por topografa y mineralizacin cerca de"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@albertrjf Albert: were entering a financial acceleration cycle. Do you position in #equities #commodities or #FX first [----] 2020rate cuts preceded manufacturing rebounds. Is [----] seTTing UP the same playbook"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Liquidity leads fundamentals. #PMI usually follows with an 8month lag. Are we at the start of another liquiditydriven rally Estamos entrando en un ciclo de aceleracin financiera. Position accordingly https://t.co/pgIsq7OxhL Estamos entrando en un ciclo de aceleracin financiera. Position accordingly https://t.co/pgIsq7OxhL"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Positioning early in liquidity cycles is keyby the time PMI confirms much of the rally is already priced in"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Stimulus cycles tend to lift industrial metals (#copper #aluminum) as manufacturing demand recovers. #commodiTIES"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""Stablecoins are no longer just liquidity instruments. They are reserve managers. They are settlement rails. They are credit intermediaries. They are geopolitical variables. When evaluating yield products today youre not only comparing rate spreads. Youre evaluating: Reserve composition and duration. Audit transparency. Smart contract design. Jurisdictional exposure. Custody models. Rabobank sees a U.S. advantage. Wall Street sees programmable credit. China sees a sovereignty threat. All are reacting to the same reality: Money is becoming infrastructure. And infrastructure is becoming"
X Link 2026-02-15T09:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Brent spike yen carry unwind global tightening. Which leg of the chain do you think is most dangerous Oil doesnt need to stop flowing to break markets. A Middle East flashpoint could spike Brent trigger a yen carry unwind and tighten global liquidity fast. From Tehran to Tokyo heres the chain reaction most investors arent pricing. Read here: https://t.co/BWMZU6bk1m Oil doesnt need to stop flowing to break markets. A Middle East flashpoint could spike Brent trigger a yen carry unwind and tighten global liquidity fast. From Tehran to Tokyo heres the chain reaction most investors arent pricing."
X Link 2026-02-15T09:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Perfection in backtests is a red flag. Robustness is not. After expanding oUR systematic #gold portfolio to [----] trades and restructuring its internal correlation the results became far more important and far more believable. Profit Factor: [----] Win rate: 86.2% Max Drawdown: 4.29% CAGR: 488% Negative internal correlations across all strategies Monte Carlo simulations confirm structural stability The equity curve is no longer perfect. It is durable. This distinction matters. Institutional capital does not allocate to the highest return. It allocates to the highest probability of survival under"
X Link 2026-02-15T10:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Equities: Rising debt loads could cap valuations if investors start pricing balancesheet risk. Credit: CDS activity is a hedge against AI arms race leverage. Banks and funds are positioning early. Macro: If tech debt issuance accelerates it could crowd out other borrowers tightening liquidity. Psychology: Investors once saw Big Tech as fortress balance sheets. The shift toward leveraged AI bets challenges that narrative. AI Bubble Fears Are Creating New Derivatives Debt investors are worried that the biggest tech companies will keep borrowing until it hurts in the"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ValoAi31561 Discipline beats FOMO"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The breakout in regional banks is the market's 'thank you' note for the Warsh nomination. Were moving away from an inverted curve toward a regime where banks can actually make money on the spread again. When $KRE and $XLI lead it tells you that credit is flowing and factories are hiring. The 'Tech Rout' is just the cost of admission for a more balanced durable bull market. When industrials and regional banks are breaking out that a bullish sign of economic expectations from the market. INDUSTRIALS https://t.co/8B76S8QETO When industrials and regional banks are breaking out that a bullish sign"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""Bullish Skew" @ValueSeeker_ is highlighting a technical setup that suggests the [----] oil market might be a massive "coiled spring." By adjusting the price for the Money Supply (M2) he's removing the "inflation noise" to show that in real terms oil is as cheap as it was before the historic 2000s supercycle"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"1. The "Real Price" Floor When you look at WTI Crude (currently trading around $63.50) adjusted for the $22.4 trillion in M2 money supply you see that oil is essentially re-testing its 40-year valuation floor. +The 2000s Parallel: In the early 2000s oil traded near $20 before a decade-long run to $140. On an "inflation-adjusted" basis $60 today is arguably cheaper than $20 was then given the sheer volume of dollars printed in the last five years. +The Technical Setup: The Inverse Head-and-Shoulders mentioned is forming on the monthly chart. If oil breaks above the $78$80 neckline it signals a"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The divergence is the signal. Aluminum is down 3% this month but $CENX is up 7% in the last two weeks. That kind of 'Relative Strength' usually means the big money is positioning for the breakout before it hits the #LME tape. With the Aroon indicator flagging a strong uptrend and the 'Mount Holly' restart on the horizon $CENX is basically a levered bet on that 7-year MA holding firm. Great catch on the moving average configuration. Aluminum is now re-testing a key restitance while its [--] and 7-year moving averages are climbing towards it. In this configuration the risk-reward is promising."
X Link 2026-02-10T10:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 'Monopoly Money' era of paper-oil #shorts is meeting the reality of a physical decline. @TaviCosta 's poinT abouT The DecaDe-high short position is the key. We have a 'Double Top' on the charts but a 'Supply CliFF' in the data. If $CENX and the miners are already printing cash the oil producers are next once this 412-rig reality Hits tHe Headline price. The Resurgence is being fueled by the very people beTTing against IT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021361803238809942 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021361803238809942"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@WOLF_Financial Soros rotates: bearish energy exits China leverage loads semis & AI. $XOP/ $XLE puts $MSFT / $TSM doubled $NVDA added. Rolling bubbles in motion"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"🔎 Plumbing Analysis Bearish energy: New $580M in puts across $XOP ($415M) and $XLE ($163M). Clear bet against energy equities. Bullish AI/semis: Major increases in Microsoft (+159%) Taiwan Semi (+157%) Nvidia (+22%) plus new Broadcom stake. Exiting China leverage: Entirely sold $FXI and $KWEB calls ($234M total). Signaling retreat from leveraged China exposure. New themes: CoreWeave puts ($123M) suggest skepticism on niche AI infra plays; Ally Financial (+129%) and EA (+290%) show diversification into banks and gaming. Portfolio churn: 50+ new positions one of the most active filings in"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"🌐 Connecting the Dots Equities: Soros is rotating out of China and energy into AI/semis and selective U.S. cyclicals. Fixed Income: Bearish energy stance may reflect expectations of softer commoditylinked inflation. AI & Tech: Doubling down on semis ( $TSM $NVDA $MSFT) aligns with the AI infrastructure boom. Macro: Rolling bubbles thesis in playenergy and China deflating AI and semis inflating. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022649783152701935 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022649783152701935"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Invisible Architecture of Conflict. 🏗 Wars dont just disrupt markets. They rewire the global economys DNA. Beyond the headlines a deeper transformation is happening: The shift from Efficiency to Resilience. [--]. The Shockwave: Surface vs. Core The immediate reaction is predictable: Investors flee to gold and the USD. Oil spikes. Markets bleed. But the real "storm" is the aftermath: Massive government spending fuels Inflation. Resource wastage creates artificial Scarcity. Interventionist policies replace free-market dynamics. [--]. The Death of "Just-in-Time" For decades we chased"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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