[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@toy59496 Avatar @toy59496 Robin Dods

Robin Dods posts on X about $stoax, acquisition, currency, stocks the most. They currently have XXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

Engagements Line Chart

Mentions: XX #

Mentions Line Chart

Followers: XXX #

Followers Line Chart

CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence #

Social category influence finance currencies cryptocurrencies stocks countries exchanges

Social topic influence $stoax #1320, acquisition #846, currency #539, stocks, $toeax #1, asx, $myxax #1, $bsaax #1, hedge #7, $ahxax #1

Top assets mentioned Lennar Corporation (LEN) Lennar Corporation Class B (LEN.B) Aurora (AOA) Banksocial (BSL) Inery (INR) BlackRock Inc (BLK)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"$STO.AX I exited today having a very large position. I made a trivial profit but I do not like the slow decision making by our Middle eastern friends and there are in any event significant uncertainties with FIRB approval. It is also at the NBIO stage and having been just burnt by $ASK.AX with its NBIO. I think confirmed rather than indicative non-binding offers make more sense for large positions. I actually think our government is unlikely to prevent takeover just look at $PEK.AX which is slipping through the net. I bet most of you aren't even watching that one. Having said all of that the"
X Link @toy59496 2025-08-26T02:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$STO.AX : Bargain Hunters For those that do buy and hold the unwinding of STO today may represent an opportunity. Estimate of pre-bid price is $XXXX. Some of those arbitrageurs are going to unwind as many of them have a policy of immediately exiting on a deal break which is a very sensible policy on their part because otherwise there is a psychological bias in holding on and converting yourself from an arbitrage fund to a long fund which is not the deal under the client arrangement. That can act in a favour as a retail investor. Generally something with high liquidity might revert back to its"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-17T23:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$STO.AX : Short Interest It's surprisingly the big grown ups didn't pick up that one better"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-18T00:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@puppyeh1 I couldn't help it I bought another half a million.sometimes things just scream bargain.is the world blind"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-15T23:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"So here's a question Scotty When eventually the market turns south what's going to happen to gold and silver You would say it will go up as a safe haven but it is already so incredibly high that I am getting vertigo. Apparently the silver pop is due to a short squeeze I wouldn't have thought it was possible to do a short squeeze on something as readily available as silver"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-13T06:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$SRG.AX - Acquisition Normally acquisitions are dilutitive but this jumps $300m on a $85m acquisition. Either people are nuts or I am losing my edge.or else I've missed something. Meanwhile lamenting not jumping into rare earths like everybody else here.looking at you @Tze_C"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-14T05:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CSL.AX : Closing Auction I've been educating myself on the closing auction with thanks to some of you. Between 4:00 p.m. and 4:10 p.m. the ASX looks at what price will maximise the volume of shares traded and set that price as the closing price. Significant purchasers like to move large blocks of shares at that time because it is anonymous as the order does not come up on the lit book/trading depth. I have been told that XX% of the entire days volume for any one stock is typically executed at that time. The closing auction is particularly useful because unlike the opening auction an order"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-24T06:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX : Revised Entry A few people have contacted me as to whether there is anything still left in this arbitrage. I think it depends on the level of today's recovery. The deal has returned to slightly more risky than a conventional arbitrage and you can set your own level as to what you think the relative risks to completion are now. However I would suggest anything under $XXXX gives sufficient room for a negotiated settlement and accounts for the small risks of appeal and FIRB. I am already at my maximum allocation so in good conscience can't increase my holdings. This is not financial"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-15T20:35Z XXX followers, 8250 engagements

"$LEN & $LEN.B : Liquidity Premium Some of you will have read my posts on trying to define the liquidity premium on entering and exiting small capitalisation stocks on the ASX eg $BSA.AX. The US provides an interesting experiment because it has dual class shares unlike the ASX where one vote per share is mandatory. Take Lennar Corporation a major home builder and real estate corporation. It has two classes of shares that have identical economic entitlements eg dividends but unequal voting with the $LEN.B shares having XX times the vote of the $LEN share. Now you would expect that would give a"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-28T12:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$KLR.AX Excellent article by Tom Richardson on Livewire. The plot thickens as $KLR was not the only potentially pumped stock on that day but $AOA was as well. AND THEY HAVE THE SAME ADDRESS"
X Link @toy59496 2025-08-20T01:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Hedging Inflation: CHF I've been reflecting on methods to hedge against inflation which will invariably increase with western governments like Australia and the United states continuing to print money. It turns out it's actually relatively straightforward to see this when you consider the M2 money supply (physical currency saving deposits demand deposit etc) in each country. The M2 supply has massively increased in both the United states and Australia but Switzerland has been very circumspect about printing money. The results are very predictable it's just like if you grow more bananas the"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-09T07:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@blackswan2023 Yes that's why I avoid it. I never ask advice. Or give it. Problematic. What I meant was I gather you are able to short stocks on interactive brokers whereas my brokerage platform does not allow shorting"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-14T02:49Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@GeoffWilsonWAM Geoff- even those of us who weren't affected (yet) were terrified by the tax on unrealised gains. You let that happen in super and soon it's part of the regular tax system. What are you going to turn your attention to now Geoff"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-13T20:44Z XXX followers, 1019 engagements

"$AHX.AX : Arbitrage Break This dropped X% today in the setting of an NBIO at $XXXX less dividends. Originally they specified a process deed for due diligence but it is not a binding offer although the major shareholder is on board. I don't see any news to suggest a deal break At the current price it's a XX% yield which seems a little bit too good to be true. I have 160k shares which is my maximum allocation. Thoughts"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-06T06:56Z XXX followers, 1121 engagements

"$TOE.AX : Progress Arbitrage I mentioned this arbitrage two days ago. It's been going well since. Current Value = US$10.82 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.60. Still undervalued significantly BUT you have both market and currency risk. I have only a modest allocation for that reason and because I prefer cash offers. It's worth pointing out that the current market is unusual in the usually you go long the acquired and short the acquirer to remove systemic market risk from the arbitrage. But in the current hot market excess returns are being found by going along both acquirer"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-15T07:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$BSA.AX : Due Diligence The appointment of Mr Raihani as a director reveals his relationship in other listed companies. A quick look at the performance of those companies shows they have all done well.at least recently. This is relevant as the value of this company is best released through an acquisition and not continued cash burn by the executives. Of course it is unclear to me why $BSA thought it was reasonable to simply add a director instead of replacing an existing director. More directors means more remuneration and underserved share options for a board that simply takes money away"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-06T00:45Z XXX followers, 1511 engagements

"@Comlbr24 The question of the true investor Not a listed entity- looked like just a local pizza shop. Owner operators always ensure return on capital"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-02T02:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$STO.AX : Autopsy Interesting article from James Thompson at the AFR. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain why the Santos board did not want to obtain scheme approval prior to the Treasurer making a judgement I assume it's about the cost involved in going through the scheme process but really this seems to be the general process with most acquisitions that the FIRB approval is down the track and not upfront. Was the board being unreasonable"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-18T08:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-13T23:53Z XXX followers, 1015 engagements

"$INR are two different entities on ASX and NASDAQ aren't they Given how much many of us have lost on lithium and given its in the dirt under my feet when I go out the front door it's going to be hard to reinvest in that one. Rare earths aren't that rare just widely dispersed and difficult to extract. Look at $IGO.AX and the layered corporate on a corporate arrangement where Tianqi has only XX% equity but total control of the world's biggest lithium mine. They managed that as they have the technology. The real battle is about the technology. Meanwhile my kids are learning Mandarin"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-13T20:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Thanks Travis Yes I had a look at the shareholder list for As far as I can establish it looks like this. (Perseus) XXXX% Zijin Mining XXX% (SEHK 2899) Lund Family XXX% (Canada) Helikilon Investments XXXX% (Hedge Fund UK Federico Riggio) Blackrock XXXXX% Although hard to know how I updated these all are. We immediately eliminate Helikon and BlackRock who will not be buyers. Perseus did say they had no interest in an acquisition. That leaves Zijin and the Lund family. Interesting but nobody has made any moves at the stage. It occurs to me that the other reason there may have been disparate"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-06T10:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$STO.AX : Deal Break Called it.I thought they were "tyre kickers". All the photos in their jets convinced me they were wasting everybody's time visiting all over the place at someone else's expense. And then the delay coming to an agreement. That was a visceral feeling and I am troubled that I can't quantify that into a general rule. I actually held a very large amount of STO in the beginning shortly after the initial announcement but then sold out at a X% profit. But I would have sold out a loss as the thesis just no longer worked. There will be big losses as people will unwind tomorrow."
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-17T12:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$STO.AX : Review It might be a good time to revisit what we believe is the price of Santos in the setting of no acquisition. Prior to the NBIO announcement on XX June 2025 it was trading over $XXXX but there had been considerable prior volatility. Since then the earnings have been delivered and underwhelmed the community. The proposed NBIO acquisition price was about $XXXX. The current price is $XXXX. I estimate the downside is $XXXX. So there is $XXXX downside and $XXXX upside which suggests the market believes there is a higher probability of success than of failure. I like to think of"
X Link @toy59496 2025-09-08T06:26Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$TOE.AX : Updated Current Value = US$10.44 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.57. Current price $XXXX. The spread has now significantly narrowed. Keep in mind you have both systemic market risk and currency risk as well as the usual deal risks so this is a less well-defined arbitrage and so you want a higher margin of safety. A higher margin than is currently on offer in my view"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-15T23:18Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$AHX.AX Arbitrage This has been softening over the last few days because while an NBIO of $XXXX is on the table it is dependant on a 30-day period of due diligence which has now passed. At the prevailing price to break even on this arbitrage Kelly Criteria says I must have at least XX% confidence that it will close. Based on: Break price = $XXXX Current price = $XXXX Takeover price = $XXXX There has beenn no announcement either way. To me that is a positive sign because if they were going to bail they would have bailed. The smaller companies are sometimes a little tardier in the timeline and"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-07T09:42Z XXX followers, 1085 engagements

"$TOE.AX : Arbitrage $ISOU Scrip for Scrip acquisition by $ISOU at the ratio of XXXXX ISOU shares for each $TOE share. Current Value = US$10.57 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scripscrip= AUD$0.586 = AUD$0.59 You are entirely exposed to market risk and acquiring company doesn't generate revenue and will probably dilute if you hold. Technically you should buy $TOE and short $ISOU which also protects against market risk but increases your losses in the setting of breach. (This theory of short the acquirer has not worked with $PDI.AX which continues to go upwards for reasons I do not"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-13T04:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX : Analysis of Judgement I've just spent the last X hours reading the comprehensive judgement of XXX paragraphs. X. The Supreme Court of NSW is amazing in managing to deliver a judgement in a single day. X. The judgement is remarkably similar to the lucid analysis of both Fabreres @fabreres and Luke Cummings of Harvest Lane. I put Luke's article below for reference because so many of the points that he made are reflected in the judgement. X. The judgement is devastating for Cosette in terms of the credibility of their witnesses. While an appeal to the NSWCA may be inevitable this is"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-15T10:27Z XXX followers, 10.6K engagements

"@blackswan2023 Shorting $DRO using Interactive Brokers I'm not on that platform yet"
X Link @toy59496 2025-10-14T01:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements