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@systematicls Avatar @systematicls sysls

sysls posts on X about if you, prediction, i am, reduce the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXXX #

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% technology brands XXXX% social networks XXXX% stocks XXXX%

Social topic influence if you #4042, prediction #1402, i am #1060, reduce #759, pms #3, ngmi 2.78%, ai 2.78%, transaction #188, money 2.78%, finance #3844

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @0xfdf @maruushae @trader_xo @soma_as_moon7 @zeonlygui @gerardsoreaux @macrocephalopod @richardcraib @capjsparrrow @quantonisland @scottph77711570 @paperswbacktest @turbofish_pk @humphilomath @lurkamat @friendscallmeap @trad62866 @movietimedev @paleologos @base

Top assets mentioned XBANKING (XB) Shopify Inc (SHOP)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Non Random Facts About Random Forests When you are ready to move up from linear models the random forest has many nice properties that make it robust in low signal-to-noise environments. It's a simple model in the world of very large and very complex models that REALLY get the job done. --- Youve got a messy dataset and you want a prediction that isnt fragile as hell. A random forest gives you that by training many noisy decision trees and then averaging what they say. Two key tricks: i) bootstrapping the data and ii) randomizing the features at each split. -- You have XX data points: X X ."
X Link 2025-12-07T09:01Z 20.2K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Anybody who retweets and contributes to getting me above the 20K line will get +20% sharpe in 2026. No exceptions"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:13Z 20.2K followers, 14.8K engagements

"One thing people absolutely do not understand until they are in positions of power is how difficult it is to get anything from X - 1; even IF you have the RIGHT people. Projects in the real world are hard to complete and every X - X is you enforcing your will on reality and saying: "There is nothing here but I will apply myself until reality is warped and something is transmuted from nothing but my will." --- This is absolutely true if you are solving a novel problem. If you throw in the variable of shitty teammates you are destined for failure because you cannot collectively apply your will"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:52Z 20.2K followers, 6140 engagements

"I have a story for you guys. This is a TRUE story with some minor touch ups to anonymize our characters. I once employed a man who had all kinds of degrees and accolades to his name. Let's call our man. Valerie. --- Valerie was quite literally in possession of multiple masters all from top universities in very technical and challenging topics (e.g. physics computer science etc). AND he had a PhD Of course he also had the CFA AND the FRM. Very impressive right You'd ask Valerie why he would bring himself to spend XX years studying to get all of these certificates and he would tell you"
X Link 2025-11-29T15:09Z 20.1K followers, 94K engagements

"I agree with kens conclusions. My indicators are telling me the same things. If you cant see it youre NGMI"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:49Z 20.1K followers, 8061 engagements

"People complaining that "Startup X shouldn't be worth $XB because it's just a wrapper around GPT" fundamentally misunderstand how value is created. Everything is a wrapper. Some of these are trillion dollar wrappers: AWS: Wraps data centers into an API. $500B. Stripe: Wraps banks and payment networks into X lines of code. $70B. Shopify: Wraps web hosting and payments into "start a store". $100B. Salesforce: Wraps databases into "track your customers". $250B. Google: Wraps the internet into a search box. $2T. Nobody uses raw compute raw infrastructure or raw APIs. They use wrappers that"
X Link 2025-11-18T14:50Z 20.2K followers, 3936 engagements

"Alpha drop: Numerai forums. Numerai obfuscates all features before giving you data. feature_1. feature_1050 zero semantic meaning. Can't lean on fundamentals or papers forced to discover pure statistical relationships. The forum is people trying to crack why things work without being able to anchor to conventional wisdom. Forced creativity at scale. Some threads: why recent 1yr models beat long history why neutralization backfires handling regime shifts when you can't see what actually changed. Good hunting ground if you want to see statistical thinking divorced from "but Fama-French says"
X Link 2025-11-18T16:24Z 20.1K followers, 15.1K engagements

"Want to understand how the best models in Numerai crush the competition every era 🧵 Cue: Feature Exposure Feature Exposure is a diagnostic metric measuring how much your model depends on specific features. High exposure creates regime-dependent performance and should generally be reduced. Feature Neutralization is the technique for reducing exposure by removing linear feature relationships from predictions. It: 1) Uses pseudoinverse projection to residualize predictions 2) Preserves higher-order interactions while removing direct effects 3) Can be tuned via proportion parameter and feature"
X Link 2025-11-20T13:26Z 20.2K followers, 40.7K engagements

"I really enjoyed reading this if you're an agentic nerd like I am. Here's a neat summary Everyone's building AI agents now. The problem most will face is that AI agents tend to still fail on anything longer than a single context window. Here's what Anthropic learned building harnesses for long-running agents: The core insight: State doesn't belong in the prompt. It belongs in files. Your agent harness needs three things: X. Structured task tracking (JSON not Markdown) X. Unstructured progress notes (plain text) X. Git for checkpoints Why JSON over Markdown Structured data survives context"
X Link 2025-11-27T04:15Z 20.2K followers, 17.4K engagements

"I hope you'll allow yourself some space to be "silly" and "non-serious" even if you are a very important person at work and wear the big boy pants. Life can be so dreary if there's no time to really breath and let loose"
X Link 2025-11-30T05:35Z 20.1K followers, 13.5K engagements

"It's great to be competent you should always strive to be competent. And by all means be "serious people". But don't let competency get in the way of live love laugh"
X Link 2025-11-30T05:36Z 20.1K followers, 2402 engagements

"A quants take on productivity proxies in managing global teams. Lets say you manage a large team that spans geographies. You can no longer use the good ol come to office and let me see how often you are on your phone browsing tiktok. The time where you evaluate who gets shitcanned has cometh. How do you evaluate who is a useful team member and who should get the boot Lets say you suffer from the same brand of autism and neuroticism as me. --- a) You have Slack messages an entire year's worth of archives. b) All transcripts of all meetings. c) Direct PnL attribution of researchers and Jira"
X Link 2025-12-01T14:56Z 20.1K followers, 12K engagements

"Everyone's waiting for certainty before they make the jump. Newsflash: Certainty doesn't exist in any system complex enough to be worth your time. Kelly figured this out in 1956. You don't need to know the outcome. You need: 1) Positive expected value 2) Position sizing that survives being wrong 3) Enough iterations to let compounding do its thing In the short term we regret our failures. In the long term we regret what we never tried. Bezos put it simply: "100% chance of regret if I didn't try. X% chance if I tried and failed." My take on life: - You will never have perfect information -"
X Link 2025-12-02T12:36Z 20.1K followers, 17.2K engagements

"You get some raw SysLS (and not ChatGPT SLOP) thoughts and analysis for free and I get a retweet like and a follow FAIR"
X Link 2025-12-06T10:10Z 20.1K followers, 1881 engagements

"@richardcraib I think the answer to this can be solved by invoking occam's razor. They are institutional-grade full-timers dedicated to Numerai and are a notch above the rest of the hobbyists"
X Link 2025-12-06T17:57Z 20.1K followers, XXX engagements

"@richardcraib You might find a handful of them per 1000 active users but it's probably not at a concentration that Numerai strives for to scale Signals"
X Link 2025-12-06T17:58Z 20.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@CapJSparrrow sending you an mri of my brain"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:46Z 20.1K followers, XXX engagements

"I was a very early Numerai user back in 2016-ish when I was already a working quant. Was only active for a short stint but was so tickled by the idea that a firm was trying to crowdsource signals. Numerai had a certain appeal that Quantopian never quite had for me. I really appreciated that you needed to stake NMR to get allocation and that payback was proportional to your stake. This was elegant - if you don't enforce users to have skin in the game you get adversely selected. Incentives and punishment drives behaviour. Over the years I've been involved in a few crowdsourcing programs across"
X Link 2025-11-20T05:31Z 20.2K followers, 19.5K engagements

"@quantonisland Very few roles will let you work on different sides of things. Normally you hone your skills in alpha generation and learn portfolio opt via osmosis or as a sub-pm"
X Link 2025-11-20T14:19Z 20.2K followers, 1466 engagements

"@ScottPh77711570 @MartinShkreli I am an impartial juror only assessing alpha generation abilities"
X Link 2025-11-26T09:15Z 20.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Common misconception: "My LR model predicts LARGE (e.g. +8%) returns. It must be confident." No. Prediction magnitude tells you almost nothing about confidence. Often the opposite. --- Here's why: X. What determines Your prediction is = X. Large predictions mean: a. Extreme features (far from training mean) b. Large coefficients c. Both None of these imply confidence. --- X. What actually determines confidence Prediction variance: Var() = x'(X'X)x That x'(X'X)x term is called leverage. It measures how far your feature vector sits from the center of your training data. Extreme features - high"
X Link 2025-11-29T04:21Z 20.2K followers, 88.6K engagements

"If you are a researcher and are relegated to the alpha mines in a fairly modern team most of your research assumes no transaction costs. You live in this fairytale world where trading is free and daily (vwap-close/(close+epsilon)) is a X sharpe alpha in US equities. Everyday you churn out banger after banger "2 sharpe" "3 sharpe" and you ignore the turnover number on your sim. You are after all paid roughly as a function of live OS sharpe before costs. The turnover number is just a distraction right --- Meanwhile the PM tasked with trading your signals berates you everyday. "Dave you freaking"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:54Z 20.2K followers, 14.2K engagements

"I wish I was better at naming articles maybe some provocative like: "There are lessons in here every quant should want to know""
X Link 2025-12-06T16:59Z 20.2K followers, 16.2K engagements

"High frequency bozos will tell you HFT is the only way to make money because predictions decay exponentially with time. Mid frequency clowns will tell you that MFT is the ONLY way to make money because trading too fast will erode all transaction costs. Low frequency jesters will tell you that LFT is SUPREMELY better because it allows you to manage BILLIONS rather than millions. --- The point is for every way of making money there is a subset of people that are diametrically opposed to your beliefs. Fuck them and do your thing. Sincerely Guy who has seen strategies across broad spectrums all"
X Link 2025-11-28T05:25Z 20.2K followers, 114K engagements

"Mixed-effects models are what you use once you admit your data is lying about the i.i.d. assumption. Quick thread on what they are when to use them and how they differ from linear regression: 1) The usual toy: y = X + Every row is independent same variance no structure. It's less useful once you have repeated measures panel data or anything hierarchical. 2) Mixed-effects model: y = X + Zb + = fixed effects (population-level coefficients) b = random effects (group-level deviations) Z = design matrix that ties observations to groups Now observations that share the same b are correlated by"
X Link 2025-12-03T07:00Z 20.2K followers, 28.7K engagements

"Me dealing with humans: kind gracious patient witty Me dealing with llms:"
X Link 2025-12-07T09:57Z 20.2K followers, 3944 engagements

"Had a few people PM me about this parsimony post. And I think some of you have interpreted what I am trying to say the wrong way. I think @therobotjames absolutely knows what he is talking about. I've read his blog and there are many entries that are chef's kiss. If you are starting out I think he has one of the best collection of simple down to earth and meaningful writings. --- All I am trying to say is that you have to be honest about figuring out where you want to sit everyone starts out as an egg. And then you emerge from the egg and learn how to swim and breathe and eat. Then you have"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:40Z 20.2K followers, 12.5K engagements

"Imo go the other way and forget LLMs. Try some project that display an ability to galvanize humans / be resourceful. E.g. there was a guy who waited for huge spikes in gold and went to a local boutique shops who were more price insensitive and bought gold from them and sold them to shops that were more price sensitive and could reflect large gold prices same day-as-of. And had a few nice receipts to prove his adventures. I really liked that kind of resourcefulness"
X Link 2025-12-11T15:57Z 20.2K followers, 1056 engagements

"Looking at all these subpar DeFi funds with lame promises and mechanisms makes me want to create the ultimate gambling vehicle for the people: X. Create token A X. Sell X token for Y value X. Take Y value run alpha-generation strategies anywhere earn Z dollars X. Take some x portion of Z dollars and buy x*Z dollars worth of token A at some fixed interval You get: a. No promises a token with some derivative value on the returns of alpha-generation strategies (maybe positive maybe negative who knows) b. No lies on performance no guarantees no bullshit about eternal spring I get: a. A blank"
X Link 2025-11-07T13:40Z 20.2K followers, 3499 engagements

"Everyone knows funding rate carry works in crypto. It's the easy sell to get you to "try systematic strategies". Here's what most people miss about WHY it works: The funding rate is a signal. It tells you there's an imbalance between longs and shorts in the perpetual market. When funding is positive it means there's excess demand for longs - the market is crowded on one side. Traditional futures solve this with expiration. Price converges to spot as the contract matures. No argument. Perpetuals don't expire. So how do you anchor the perp price to spot Answer: You pay someone to take the other"
X Link 2025-11-22T03:26Z 20.2K followers, 100.3K engagements

"The 2025 quant workflow: 1) Ask ChatGPT for a "profitable trading strategy" 2) It suggests DOUBLE moving average crossover (groundbreaking) 3) Download SPY data from Yahoo Finance 4) Backtest on X years of survivors 5) Sees XXX Sharpe 6) Copy paste backtest results and "THIS DID NOT WORK" 7) Repeat XX times until ChatGPT tweaks enough to have a X sharpe signal 8) Paper trade for XX hours 9) Deposit life savings When it blows up post on X that ChatGPT "doesn't work for trading." Man I gotta tell you ChatGPT worked perfectly"
X Link 2025-11-27T13:00Z 20.2K followers, 55.1K engagements

"You can pick a fight with a man. He can be muscled scarred and tattooed. You might go for it even if he has buddies around. But for the love of god if you see THIS stay away. It is the mark of a demon and you are walking into his lair"
X Link 2025-11-30T18:02Z 20.2K followers, 151.3K engagements

"You cannot use classifiers as a replacement for returns prediction if you care about magnitude. If you regress returns on features youre estimating: ER X If you run logistic on sign(R) youre estimating: P(R X X) Even if you output probabilities and both models spit out a continuous score they are not solving the same problem and are not representing the same information. --- Key differences: 1) Target a) Linear: sees every bp of the move. b) Logistic-on-sign: only sees green vs red. +1 bp and +5% are identical. Same for X bp and 5%. 2) Estimand a) Linear OLS: best L2 estimate of the"
X Link 2025-12-02T06:21Z 20.2K followers, 45.6K engagements

"According to @macrocephalopod if I dont get people to retweet to follow me I am going to get cooked on my bet that I will get to 30K followers by year end. I made this bet X weeks ago and my plan was to post frequently for X weeks and then beg for my highbie followers to lend a brother a hand to teach my counterparty not to make bets where reflexivity is involved and I have a chance to shape the outcome"
X Link 2025-12-03T10:51Z 20.2K followers, 159.8K engagements

"Lets say you are a quant researcher and you want to make the leap to being a systematic PM. Let me tell you that the name of the game is to reduce the interviewers perception of how many unknowns they have to deal with. --- If you were an experienced PM the expectation is that you understand every stage in the investment process and have a track record. But for first-time PMs the bar is different. And you should absolutely take advantage of that. Chances are for first-time PMs you will join a team as a sub-PM which means you are essentially at an experience level where the main PM thinks you"
X Link 2025-12-05T04:32Z 20.2K followers, 56.6K engagements

"The quant industry has spent decades learning that if you set benchmarks and say this is the ground truth for goodness - you will see extremely high and absurd scores in historical and never have it generalise to live. I feel the AI community is about to spend the next decade learning this. Soon we will have entire textbooks about generalisation errors from benchmarks to real-world usage"
X Link 2025-12-07T07:53Z 20.2K followers, 55.5K engagements

"I read papers (almost) for a living and come across a large selection of many ideas. Some terrible some decent some truly great. I'd like to post more about papers I've read and especially want to post and curate papers that I've read and really liked on QUANT FINANCE but I feel there is so much selection alpha here just because its implicitly saying: Among these sea of useless information I've found THESE to be useful. Seems like pay walling it behind subscribers only makes sense for this purpose"
X Link 2025-12-08T18:57Z 20.2K followers, 36.4K engagements

"This is a good train of thought to prevent going down nerd holes that dont work. It is essentially parsimony taken to an extreme. This kind of thinking ex-ante will greatly reduce the probability in which you find something entirely spurious or extremely overfitted. When you are a single player or in a very small lean team; or have decided that you are ONLY interested in farming risk factors you can and SHOULD take this line of thought. IF capacity is NOT important to you and IF you are willing to only play in illiquid or otherwise new markets then you SHOULD follow this line of thought."
X Link 2025-12-09T09:13Z 20.2K followers, 31.8K engagements

"Everyday I leak alpha from clout capture tweets and if you can't tell you're NGMI"
X Link 2025-12-10T07:55Z 20.2K followers, 12.9K engagements

"I am now reaching a stage where I am realising that the limits of the LLMs intelligence prompt can be higher than the limits of some peoples intelligence prompt. There are going to be some mass firings coming ahead"
X Link 2025-12-10T09:58Z 20.2K followers, 8573 engagements

"The reason young people are cooked is because in the past managers (including PMs) used to have to hire junior developers and prompt them for code. This was the OG vibe coding. I hire a junior dev I prompt him to code out super secretive alpha I view his work with suspicion and I berate him for being slow and silly. The main difference now is that I turn on claude I prompt him to code out super secretive alpha I view his work with suspicion and I berate him for being slow and silly. --- It's so over junior devs :'("
X Link 2025-12-10T13:46Z 20.2K followers, 44.5K engagements

"As a junior if you want to stand out you should play the game and absolutely use this LLMs to build a super mega duper awesome project that is so mindblowing to a PM he has no choice but to hire you. I'm going to be honest - most PMs are dinosaurs and are not as "fast moving"; many have not yet caught on to this "new world". You can take advantage of this by using every tool at your disposal to build something stupendous and to showcase it. --- Having something to show and tell IS the ultimate resume"
X Link 2025-12-11T15:18Z 20.2K followers, 32.4K engagements

"My thinking on the matter is that cost is irrelevant as long as thinking continues to improve. One junior developer costs USD250k a year. On a code density basis these models already destroy the unit economics of hiring developers. As they get smarter it is becoming easier to centralize more and more agent work to a "head developer" managing an agent swarm as human context for managing and checking for agents drop - X. I'd take 2x the intelligence for 4x the cost anyday"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:58Z 20.2K followers, 4019 engagements

"@0xfdf no of course not but which model are you assuming this to be though gemini but they haven't been able to prove that more thinking = better performance for gemini. and anecdotally my experience with gemini has been atrocious for coding"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:03Z 20.2K followers, XXX engagements