@rickyho_1989 Ricky Ho

Ricky Ho posts on X about market, stocks, indonesia, liquidity the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [------] #

[--] Week [-------] +909%
[--] Month [---------] +667,409%

Mentions: [--] #

[--] Week [--] +10%
[--] Month [--] +1,300%

Followers: [-----] #

[--] Week [-----] +5.10%
[--] Month [-----] +576%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries stocks technology brands currencies exchanges cryptocurrencies financial services automotive brands travel destinations

Social topic influence market, stocks, indonesia, liquidity, in the, finance, if you, money, data, core

Top assets mentioned Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Mario Coin (COIN) Bitcoin (BTC) Goldman Sachs (GS)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@JudiSaham Sure you will definitely fail. Must be nuts expecting 80% yoy revenue growth for big cap"
X Link 2025-11-03T06:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Cheytax_1 Dude the quant is ultra competitive. Yes you dont need to know about finance deeply. Just look at the profile of those got hired. Programming is not mandatory Well if everyone applying pretty much speak the language of programming then you dont most likely you will get ding"
X Link 2025-11-11T17:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@itsTimWijaya Dude we are definitely not a developed economy. Very far from it. Majority of Indonesians are poor with little purchasing power. And you are comparing us to Japan and South Korea That is definitely off"
X Link 2025-11-19T10:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"You really believe there are incremental buyers that are willing to pay above US$200k/BTC You do realize that Bitcoin does not produce any cashflow thus have no intrinsic value right other than the trust on this asset. If life moves on linear chart like this it is so great unfortunately they are not"
X Link 2025-11-23T03:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@thebabayega_ One huge fundamental problem on this name: EPS is no longer growing declining actually. I remember during IPO marketing roadshow AVIA management promised something like 25-30% CAGR EPS growth. Fast forward to today they did not deliver basically"
X Link 2025-11-23T18:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@FiksiBerfakta Why would you buy NIO instead of BYD"
X Link 2025-11-24T12:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@eurofounder Hahaha nice try dude. I havent heard the name of Siemens for a while tho"
X Link 2025-11-25T14:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Tethers stability score dropped to the weakest level. The downgrade points to structural problems in USDTs reserve quality. The issue is simple. Too much of the reserve now sits in higher risk assets. Too little sits in safe short term US Treasury bills. Bitcoin exposure at [---] percent is the biggest red flag. Bitcoin is volatile. It is not suitable collateral for a stablecoin that promises a fixed one to one peg. When BTC falls USDTs reserve buffer weakens. This raises the probability of undercollateralization in a stress event. Disclosure gaps remain a major concern. The report shows that"
X Link 2025-11-27T02:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Cheytax_1 So companies like BREN (550x PE) DSSA (215x PE) DCII (530x PE) CUAN (1000x PE) CDIA (150x PE) PANI (220x PE) IMPC (350x PE) SRAJ (-1600x PE) BRMS (180x PE) MLPT (420x PE) DNET (115x PE) FILM (-1400x PE) MPRO (-1500x PE) CASA (1200x PE) COIN (1130x PE) PGUN (500x PE) MORA (900x PE) RISE (1500x PE). Healthy Where do you get your definition of healthy Why do you even need to compare these with value stocks Definitely not my question. My question is how do you explain these conglo stocks trading at this multiple Other than low free float and being cornered by market makers"
X Link 2025-12-09T07:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Cheytax_1 Here you go. I think this is from BCG if I recall correctly. Revenue growth + margin are basically EPS growth. Well you keep repeating cheap multiples. Like I said before I dont buy stocks just because they trade at low multiples. Never said that. But also on the other hand when stocks trade at extreme high multiples (like in the case of many Indo conglomerate stocks at the moment) it says something about the local Indo market. I dont need to brag about my return here in social media. But let say it is more than decent and outperforming MSCI ASWI by huge margin past 4Y. Yes you are"
X Link 2025-12-09T08:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Well I dont think fundamental is dead. Other than passive flows no active investors would touch these stocks. What will they do Continue to maintain liquidity History taught us the liquidity would suddenly disappear at some point. Thats why my question is always been how do they attract new buyers providing current valuation they possess. Maybe you can start looking at markets outside Indonesia. Individual investors do have choices in my opinion. Unfortunately local asset management companies dont. Thats why they have been losing tons of AUM. Their clients have been switching to fixed income"
X Link 2025-12-09T09:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I have one major question: He promises to get us at least 6% GDP growth next year. How will he deliver this Let me assign probability of this happening: 0.000000001%. Sorry guys when someone gives out target but give no logical step to achieve it it is a huge red flag. You can disagree but please bookmark this comment and come back to me next year"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Indonesia plans to spend Rp210.4tn (US$13.6bn 36% yoy) in [----] on food security. Current facts: Rice prices in Indonesia are consistently higher than in ASEAN peers yet Indonesian farmers are getting poorer not richer. We also remain a net importer of fruits vegetables and dairy. The graphs show a long-term structural problem. High consumer prices do not translate into strong farm incomes. And heavy spending has not improved competitiveness. So where did the past food security budgets go Most funds went to short term fixes instead of structural upgrades: Price stabilization operations by"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Maybe 3bn USD. Cannot be just 3bn IDR right 👽 Rp 3M https://t.co/HSnvG1Fkkk Rp 3M https://t.co/HSnvG1Fkkk"
X Link 2025-12-12T08:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Take Indonesias [----] tax target. Rp [----] trillion implies roughly 27% growth over [----] actuals. That would be a big ask in a boom. It looks even less plausible with weaker consumption and slower corporate profits. Not achieveable in my opinion"
X Link 2026-01-12T01:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The more damning number sits underneath. Primary balance swung from -Rp20.7tn in [----] to -Rp180.7tn in [----] an almost ninefold deterioration in a single year. That means the government is no longer borrowing mainly to invest or stimulate. It is borrowing simply to pay interest"
X Link 2026-01-12T01:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"A break up of NATO would be a huge geopolitical shock post Cold War era. NATO is not just a military pact. It is the backbone of deterrence predictability and risk pricing across Europe. The immediate risk is not guaranteed war. The real danger is uncertainty"
X Link 2026-01-12T09:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Danantara will set up a new SOE in textile manufacturing investing US$6bn. Good luck fighting China in this space What a not-so-smart move. Amazing indeed 👽"
X Link 2026-01-15T10:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I Just spoke with a top global macro PM. One line stood out: You can artificially distort bonds and equity markets but the FX market is the lie detector. History shows that if you try to fight it you will run out of money. What does this imply Think YTTA"
X Link 2026-01-18T13:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Foreign Equity PM: Why are Indonesias sell-side equity analysts so trashy right now Genuinely irritated. Me: Why Foreign Equity PM: Someone pitched me one of Prajogos listed companies. 50% upside and it trades at 70x PE on forward earnings. This makes US AI stocks look very cheap. The core business is valued using a 6.5% WACC. Yes 6.5% WACC for a 100% Indonesian operation. Me: Just ban the broker and the analyst. Dont waste your time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013224113763168535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013224113763168535"
X Link 2026-01-19T12:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@kevinxu Sorry man for being upfront. About the same. You are also lucky because you were buying in bull market. I bet you havent seen what the real drawdown looks like"
X Link 2026-01-20T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Dear @bank_indonesia and @KemenkeuRI Why should foreign investors buy Indonesias 10Y government bonds at 6.3% when US Treasuries yield 4.3% and JGBs 2.3% in a higher-for-longer global rate environment and without currency risk The Indonesian government targets a 21% YoY increase in tax revenue in FY2026 which appears extremely aggressive given the current growth and tax compliance backdrop. If this target is missed and spending is not adjusted the fiscal deficit will widen materially and exceed the 3% of GDP ceiling. A structurally wider deficit raises funding needs increases duration supply"
X Link 2026-01-20T02:19Z [----] followers, 64K engagements

"Japan's bond market just suffered a 6STD move in 10-year bonds over the past 2D. Yes [--] STD The easy-money era masked fiscal weakness. Now higher rates expose it. Government budgets almost everywhere will feel the squeeze: in many countries debt service is already among the largest line items. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013750681379995907 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013750681379995907"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Joeee9388290 Well to be fair: governments all around the world are all broke as they print money out of thin air. Now it bites back as you cannot hide your fiscal weakness forever. That also applies to Japan US EU China and other countries too"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"No I did not say this is only local problem. This is a global problem. Governments across the world print money out of thin air to keep things running. But you cannot hide fiscal weakness forever. If the solution is to print more money it might work in first few cycles but could not last forever. Interest payment on the debt of governments all across the world have been the largest line item already. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013763464037310904 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013763464037310904"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"IDX is not an indicator of market confidence. That is just a very very wrong statement. You can distort equity and bond markets but FX market is the lie detector. When local retailers pump thinly traded stocks to hundred times multiples is being framed as market confidence that is usually how bubbles show up. Institutional investors let it be local or foreign walk away from those environment. Next is perhaps passive foreign investors tracking MSCI. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013776493990813705 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013776493990813705"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@mambojumbo69 Chill dude. You expect me to solve BI and MoF problems They are being paid to do their jobs. And they have their teams and resources. I am pretty sure they can figure something out"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Yes the real inflation figure should be higher. On fiscal deficit I dont know whether the government will nuke the 3% of GDP limit or not. But nuking this will be a very bad move. Agree the conglo stocks have crazy multiples and are not healthy as I dont think the earnings can multiply within short term or even expand at all. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013789874273558952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013789874273558952"
X Link 2026-01-21T01:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@mambojumbo69 You still dont get it do you Why do you think I am shooting missiles"
X Link 2026-01-21T08:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I dont think 1% policy rate would be enough for Japans situation. Goldman Sachs on Japan: Monetary policy reaching crucial stage for sustainable achievement of 2% Inflation: We expect the BOJ to accelerate its pace of rate hikes from once a year to semi-annually with the policy rate reaching 1% with a 25bp hike in July [----]. The cost of delaying rate hikes is rising as underlying inflation approaches 2%. Our view on the terminal rate is 1.5% equal to the neutral rate level but if rate hikes are delayed under the Takaichi administration the BOJ may consequently need to raise the policy rate to"
X Link 2026-01-21T08:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@silaturahmiges @bank_indonesia @KemenkeuRI Abandoning the 3% deficit rule would be a serious mistake"
X Link 2026-01-22T04:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I rarely make a comment on corruption case. But Ill jump on this one: When we imagine corruption we often picture a bribe: a brown paper bag filled with cash a secret meeting in a parking garage or a clearly doctored ledger. This is dumb corruption. It is clumsy physical and easy to trace. Smart corruption however looks nothing like a crime. It looks like business as usual. It is conducted by individuals who do not break the law so much as they navigate the spaces between the laws. Catching an intelligent perpetrator is difficult because they do not leave evidence of a crime; they leave"
X Link 2026-01-23T08:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@fortisfortuna_9 But still those accusations need to be proven in the court thru a fair and objective process. Please just focus on the case dude. Dont go attack other people just because they hold a different view. He is a Pulitzer finalist a Loeb winner and is widely known for his investigative work on Malaysias 1MDB scandal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014648475124957194 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014648475124957194"
X Link 2026-01-23T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I am very curious why copper inventories have been rising even surpassing the [----] peak while the prevailing consensus insists that copper is structurally undersupplied. If the market is truly facing a long-term supply deficit inventories should be tightening not building. The disconnect between inventory data and the dominant narrative raises an important question: are we confusing long-term structural themes with short-term demand weakness misallocated supply or timing mismatches #Copper: Exchange-monitored stockpiles continue to surge exceeding the [----] peak this week to reach [---] kt with"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Borrowing from a recent write-up by @BillAckman: the US has reached a point where nearly every issue and every incident is viewed through only two opposing lenses. Each side exists inside a protected echo chamber supplied with a curated set of facts selective video footage and framing choices that reinforce its preexisting conclusions. As a result individuals are effectively tried in the public arena before investigations are complete. Headlines political commentary and social media narratives assign guilt or innocence based on alignment with a particular audience rather than on verified"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1) So basically China confirming that the US now possesses its nuclear weapons secrets 2) And why would someone in such a high-ranking position do this Given his role it is reasonable to assume that money was not the primary motivation. Very striking and revealing geopolitical situation indeed. BREAKING: Chinas government has accused their most senior general Zhang Youxia of allegedly leaking nuclear weapons secrets to the US. Zhang has reportedly leaked core technical data on Chinas nuclear weapons to the US. https://t.co/CIhGhZeI0A BREAKING: Chinas government has accused their most senior"
X Link 2026-01-26T02:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CRUDEOIL231 Retail often becomes the exit liquidity right Most will lose money as always"
X Link 2026-01-26T02:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BillAckman He simply wont Since this whole situation feeds his voter base"
X Link 2026-01-26T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Oh yes Thank you @elonmusk"
X Link 2026-01-26T04:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@jukan05 @dnystedt I follow you for quite a while. Do you think SK Hynix is able to grow earnings next year They will do well this year"
X Link 2026-01-26T07:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jukan05 @dnystedt Thanks for replying. Any rough estimate on the EPS growth figure Can it reach at least 35-40% yoy"
X Link 2026-01-26T08:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Andy__KH I personally dont think the groups owner himself scammed people tho as he never publicly put out an advertisement to buy his stocks. More like finfluencers were promoting them"
X Link 2026-01-26T09:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Andy__KH This is too much details for public discussion. You can DM me lol"
X Link 2026-01-26T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sukatul1 Maybe KJU drinks a lot of bird nest So good vertical integration target for him"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I suspect the bourses old administration has been protecting criminals. They should have seen this coming. $DCII backed by Anthony Salim is a major index gainer but trading like a meme stock. $31bn+ market cap but trading volume is only $68k a day. Up 12% today on small volume lol what a joke. Based on insider data from Stockbit brokers that handle the wash trading transaction are OK (Net Sekuritas) TP (OCBC Sekuritas) CC (Mandiri Sekuritas) YU (CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia) RF (Buana Capital Sekuritas). If the Indonesian government and Criminal Investigation Agency of the Indonesian"
X Link 2026-02-03T03:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Todays FTSE disclosure letter is not punitive but it is a diagnostic and cautionary. It places Indonesia under a form of index probation pending proof that reforms can restore verifiable ownership genuine liquidity and predictable investability. The postponement itself is the warning. Our base case is that Indonesia will be downgraded by MSCI in its May26 review. When that happens FTSE will likely follow suit. That would kill Indonesias equity market basically. Hey everyone this is my base case for Indonesian equities going forward. Personally I view this as a market to avoid entirely with"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:25Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements

"Thats why in investment you have to take a view. Nothing is certain. I take this side. If you choose to take the other side that is fine either. Like I said before time will tell which side will prevail. My return so far is very high anyway. 51% CAGR in the past [--] years with AUM size of near half billion dollar"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@graddhybpc US$300/bbl oil price will haunt everyone in this world aka apocalyptic. I do hope this will never happen"
X Link 2026-02-11T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Energy independence Not sure about that. EU has been extremely dependent on US. Russian energy purchases were at best 110bn/annum. If I recall correctly EU has signed a deal to buy 750bn worth of energy from US for 3-year meaning 250bn/annum or more than double of the Russian energy purchases. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996190944174166436 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996190944174166436"
X Link 2025-12-03T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Japan's bond market just suffered a 6STD move in 10-year bonds over the past 2D. Yes [--] STD The easy-money era masked fiscal weakness. Now higher rates expose it. Government budgets almost everywhere will feel the squeeze: in many countries debt service is already among the largest line items. And it seems liquidity is about to dry up even without a crisis. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013752261101658484 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013752261101658484"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Well when institutions (both local and foreign) walk away from the equity market that says something about the level of frothiness. Market makers can pump the stock price but it doesnt matter if you cant find buyers aka paper gain. Yes when BI bought the bonds that is what you called burden sharing. It works if it is temporary. But it becomes toxic when it becomes structural. To be honest that forex reserves look huge on stand alone basis. But remember during [----] when crisis of confidence hits if I recall correctly we have like $20bn-ish reserve (around 15% of GDP) during start of 1998; and"
X Link 2026-01-21T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I dont think 1% policy rate would be enough for Japans near crisis situation. Goldman Sachs on Japan: Link to full report: Monetary policy reaching crucial stage for sustainable achievement of 2% Inflation: We expect the BOJ to accelerate its pace of rate hikes from once a year to semi-annually with the policy rate reaching 1% with a 25bp hike in July [----]. The cost of delaying rate hikes is rising as underlying inflation approaches 2%. Our view on the terminal rate is 1.5% equal to the neutral rate level but if rate hikes are delayed under the Takaichi administration the BOJ may consequently"
X Link 2026-01-21T08:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Wonder who has been buying JGBs today and pushing yields back down Of course BOJ. The BOJ bought 850bn JPY of JGBs across tenors and on top it lent 312bn JPY to banks. The total is [----] trillion JPY in intervention (now [---] since 29/7/25). This wont end well in my view"
X Link 2026-01-21T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Seems they couldnt find enough marginal buyers to keep Prajogo stocks pumping This ends badly just watch. $BREN $TPIA $BRPT $CUAN $CDIA $PTRO Foreign Equity PM: Why are Indonesias sell-side equity analysts so trashy right now Genuinely irritated. Me: Why Foreign Equity PM: Someone pitched me one of Prajogos listed companies. 50% upside and it trades at 70x PE on forward earnings. This makes US AI stocks look Foreign Equity PM: Why are Indonesias sell-side equity analysts so trashy right now Genuinely irritated. Me: Why Foreign Equity PM: Someone pitched me one of Prajogos listed companies."
X Link 2026-01-23T02:51Z [----] followers, 40.8K engagements

"Foreign equity PM friend: Why the hell $MORA is worth $22.2bn and trades at 1200x PE Are they going to 100x their earnings in the next 2-3 years Me: No way. 0% chance. Its just paper profit with very low trading volume. Foreign equity PM friend: So the same MSCI gameplay Do they even realize about the upcoming MSCI rule Many Indo stocks are now trading like meme stocks. And these are large caps. Many will punish this kind of tainted market reputation. Your regulator also did nothing. Me: Maybe they will magically grow EPS by 1000x instead Backed by major conglo right 🥂 Foreign equity PM"
X Link 2026-01-26T03:18Z [----] followers, 18.2K engagements

"I just read a research report on $RLCO. The analyst initiated coverage with a speculative Buy and a TP of Rp80000 per share. That implies 800%+ upside. Current valuation already stretches reality. PE is in the hundreds. This is a bird nest processing and export business so no other valuation multiples will fit this co. Bloomberg shows current market cap at Rp27tn around US$1.6bn. The analysts target implies a valuation of Rp248tn roughly US$14.9bn. The core argument is potential inclusion into the MSCI large-cap index. For context his 2027F NPAT forecast is Rp77bn 🥂 (yes billion not"
X Link 2026-01-26T10:21Z [----] followers, 31.5K engagements

"The market capitalization of the top [--] U.S. stocks was 15% of the equity market at the end of [----]. By the end of [----] that figure had more than doubled to roughly 35%. Critics often blame passive indexing for this crowding/concentration. While there is some truth to that it misses the bigger picture: . Exhibit [--] of the recent report by Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) of Morgan Stanley Investment Management looks at the share of total economic profit generated by the top [--] US companies by market cap. The data reveals a stark reality: 1) In [----] for example the top [--] companies made up"
X Link 2026-01-27T09:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hold on The licenses that were recently revoked are planned to be transferred to state-owned enterprises. Will the previous license holders be compensated Most likely no. Next if licenses are transferred from A to B will that solve the environmental problems that supposedly triggered the revocation Absolutely no. So what is this Can we call this a daylight robbery or "de facto expropriation risk" in softer term Kind of 🥂 The implications are as follows: ) . Investors now price not only commodity cycles and execution risk but also sovereign discretion risk. The cost of capital rises across"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@jeremie0117 Must be $NU"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BBCA remains a defensive powerhouse but its growth trajectory is visibly decelerating. While the bank has attempted to offset NIM compression through aggressive volume expansion (loan growth) and its superior low-cost funding franchise (CASA) these levers are yielding diminishing returns. The 4Q25 results characterized a "cleanup and positioning" quarter: while the bank successfully improved asset quality and loaded up on loan volume the quality of earnings deteriorated with the bottom line protected largely by aggressive provision cuts rather than core revenue growth. Looking ahead to 2026F"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ASML reports today. Will the Street raise its 9% projected EPS growth for this year That looks a bit too low. I hope so because the valuation already looks very rich. For context ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography. This is structural dominance as it sits at the center of the AI compute buildout. The company delivers very high ROIC strong free cash flow and runs with a clean balance sheet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016286540687888568 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016286540687888568"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@atelicinvest @randysteuart 1% cut as a starter. The whole sector multiple premium is gone too. $CSU is still tanking"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If you try to game the system it will find a way to punish you a hundred times over. You have been tipped tho. And yes. Any Indonesian stocks currently queuing for MSCI inclusion are all screaming SELL. Everyone will be fighting to get out. Good luck. Foreign equity PM friend: Why the hell $MORA is worth $22.2bn and trades at 1200x PE Are they going to 100x their earnings in the next 2-3 years Me: No way. 0% chance. Its just paper profit with very low trading volume. Foreign equity PM friend: So the same MSCI gameplay Foreign equity PM friend: Why the hell $MORA is worth $22.2bn and trades at"
X Link 2026-01-28T00:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Next: we might see another foreign broker closing down in Indonesia"
X Link 2026-01-28T01:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We are staring down the barrel of a generational IPO cycle. With names like i) SpaceX ii) OpenAI and iii) Anthropic looming we are looking at the new center of gravity. If these deals proceed I expect a massive gravitational pull-on global liquidity into the US. Sovereign funds family offices institutions and retail alike will crowd the trade not because the valuations are reasonable but because assets of this caliber represent a scarcity premium. They simply do not exist elsewhere. This is why the US remains the undisputed innovation capital of the world. No other market has the depth to"
X Link 2026-01-30T05:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hitting the two-year mark of strictly no-work weekends feels like a quiet but meaningful win; especially in a world that glorifies constant grind. By strictly capping my workweek at five days I subconsciously force myself to be sharper and more efficient during those days. There is no Ill fix it over the weekend safety net and that constraint changes how you work. Enjoy your time off If you dont protect your own time and energy no one else will. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017398893156446513 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017398893156446513"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is an exceptional book and one I would personally recommend to any serious student of markets. Chaos is fundamentally a physics and mathematics book not a finance one yet it offers a more useful framework for understanding market behavior than most economics and finance textbooks. Gleick explores how complex systems behave when they move far from equilibrium drawing on examples from weather patterns biological systems and the human brain. Financial markets belong squarely in this same category. They operate within rules and constraints yet their outcomes remain deeply unpredictable once"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"4) Fractals in Market Charts Fractals are patterns that repeat across different scales. Remove the time axis from a price chart and it often becomes difficult to distinguish between intraday and multi year data. Market psychology scales cleanly. The same fear and greed drive short term traders and long horizon macro investors. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017626541732278275 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017626541732278275"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"6) Feedback Loops Dominate Markets Linear systems move cleanly from input to output. Chaotic systems are governed by feedback loops. In markets this shows up as reflexivity. Algorithms react to algorithms. Selling triggers margin calls which force more selling. During liquidity cascades flow dynamics overwhelm valuation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017626872583229462 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017626872583229462"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8) Closing Thought Where chaos begins classical science stops. If you want to understand the ghost in the machine of global capital markets read this book. It is the physics of risk. #Investing #CIO #RiskManagement #ChaosTheory #Markets #Books #JamesGleick https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017627394442739852 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017627394442739852"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The background context: Indonesias economy increasingly resembles an inverted pyramid. The distortion becomes obvious once you look past headline GDP growth and examine how value is actually distributed. A narrow group at the top consists of i) local conglomerates and ii) dominant incumbents captures a disproportionate share of economic gains and wealth creation in the country. Meanwhile the base comprised of workers and new labor market entrants remains wide compressed and structurally underpaid. Capital compounds while labor treads water. The wage data is more revealing than any political"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:54Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"Below is why Konohas decision to raise (i) the minimum free float threshold from 7.5% to 15% and (ii) the disclosure threshold for share ownership from 5% to 1% still does not work and why it does nothing to resolve MSCIs underlying concerns. The core problem is that both reforms confuse visibility with substance. Raising the free float threshold assumes that the markets weakness lies in insufficient distribution. In reality the weakness lies in the nature of that distribution. Shares classified as public are often not economically independent. They may be held across multiple names but those"
X Link 2026-02-02T09:30Z [----] followers, 26.2K engagements

"@nidan_hazima There will be no new gameplay arrival once Konoha got downgraded into frontier market. Good luck wash trading stocks when you are in this investment bracket"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Hey everyone this is my base case for Indonesian equities going forward. Personally I view this as a market to avoid entirely with zero exposure. For those who are already invested I would seriously consider planning an exit ahead of the developments I believe are increasingly likely. As always do your own work (DYOR). Based on recent disclosures and signals from Indonesia's capital market authorities I struggle to see a path where MSCI continues to tolerate the current market structure indefinitely. The probability that Indonesia is eventually downgraded from Emerging Market (EM) to Frontier"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:22Z [----] followers, 48.6K engagements

"Let's dissect how a plausible wash-trading support loop: Phase 1: Float fragmentation not distribution Shares classified as "public" are dispersed across nominee accounts related parties or friendly vehicles tied economically to the controlling group. Legal ownership changes while economic control does not. The float exists in form but not in substance. Phase 2: Broker-facilitated internal crossing Friendly brokers internalize trades between aligned accounts recycling the same shares back and forth. Basically this is how i) volume prints ii) prices are market and iii) no real risk transfer"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Additional info: (1) on nominee structures and protection against a run; (2) how brokers protect themselves in the case of danger The economic beneficiary typically does not hold exposure directly in their own name. Instead risk is dispersed across nominee accounts custodial vehicles and related-party structures that are legally distinct but economically aligned. This achieves two objectives at once. First it creates the appearance of a diversified public float. Second it allows the ultimate beneficiary to remain insulated from forced selling pressure during periods of stress. Because these"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1) Domestic absorption capacity is insufficient I do not think BPJSTK can realistically absorb the expected equity outflows. At an estimated US$3035bn this translates to roughly Rp500585tn in nominal terms. BPJSTKs total AUM as of June [----] stood at around Rp840tn. Even if we optimistically assume AUM has grown to Rp900tn and further assume the current equity allocation of roughly 10% is doubled to 20% the incremental buying capacity would only be around Rp90tn. That covers just 1518% of the expected outflows. The gap is too large to bridge with domestic institutional demand alone especially"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just look at companies like $FILM $DSSA $IMPC $PTRO $RISE. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Well basically the whole conglomerate stocks. All look great when the fake liquidity blend in with real liquidity in the market; but they are exposed during this downturn. I am calling this shit as the biggest financial scandal in the country. Thank me later. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018506662164971562 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018506662164971562"
X Link 2026-02-03T02:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"For retail you can use IBKR (Interactive Brokers). Account opening is easy tho but you should learn proper investing first (if you havent) for US market as the market is ruthless. If you want to play it safe S&P ETF provides good decent return. If you are good stock pickers the sky is the limit and provides asymmetric returns in US. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018572762466677106 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018572762466677106"
X Link 2026-02-03T06:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Dear Minister Purbaya and @KemenkeuRI It is mind-blowing for a Finance Minister of Indonesia to publicly go after a Street economist for publishing an economic forecast. Forecasts are by definition judgments made under uncertainty. They reflect a set of assumptions models and interpretations of data. Disagreeing with a number is fair but personalizing that disagreement is not. When a senior policymaker targets an individual forecaster such as Helmi Arman the issue shifts from economics to temperament. Markets do not expect unanimity of views. They expect openness intellectual discipline and"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:42Z [----] followers, 37.2K engagements

"@ClaireJiao S&P might downgrade Indonesia too in my view"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The downgrade by Moodys Investors Service should not be read as a judgment on global risk appetite because sentiment toward emerging markets has in fact improved as disinflation progresses real yields appear closer to their cyclical peak and investors selectively re-engage with higher-carry jurisdictions but rather as a judgment on Indonesias domestic adjustment capacity within this more forgiving external environment. The central question is no longer whether capital is willing to look at emerging markets but whether Indonesia can credibly convert that reopening of risk appetite into durable"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@bmartawardaya Yes there is no ways we are able to achieve 20%+ tax revenue growth this year. We are lucky with low single digit if there is growth at all"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A landslide victory by Sanae Takaichi would be interpreted as a shift in Japans funding regime raising yen volatility and destabilizing global carry trades. For Indonesia the impact would be flow-driven: with pressure on IDR higher bond yields and equity de-rating as JPY-funded risk is unwound. A landslide victory by Sanae Takaichi would be interpreted by global markets less as a routine change in Japanese political leadership and more as a structural shift in the policy mix of the worlds largest source of cheap capital with consequences that would ripple outward through foreign exchange"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is not expected. Nobody expected a rout of this magnitude because the Liberal Democratic Party (LBP) did not merely secure a two-thirds super-majority but achieved it outright on its own without relying on coalition arithmetic. When combined with its allies the ruling bloc now controls roughly [--] percent of parliament marking the strongest governing majority in post-war Japan and one that confers near total institutional dominance. This level of control translates into command over parliamentary committees the practical ability to override the Upper House and should the leadership choose"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Exactly I dont have any exposure. My employer also doesnt have any. This X account is to help people to make money and give warnings (in the case of Indonesia). But its your money anyway: you are free to do whatever you want with whats yours and so do I. Same goes with opinion. Its okay to have different point of view 😊"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@pinkbourbon8898 read this. Make a proper counter argument. Lets discuss when you do one. Otherwise I dont need to entertain you any further"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SarjanaEksu Before this they met all the time too. As long as they dont satisfy the standard expected Indonesia will be downgraded from EM to Frontier Market"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BrianTycangco I have to disagree. Size could be large but who cares if you are very competitive thus resulting in less profits to shareholders. TSMC [----] net profit is actually larger than combined profit of Tencent and Alibaba for example"
X Link 2026-02-11T06:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Of course total corporate profits of China is higher than Taiwan given its size differences. But dont forget that valuation is not only about companys EPS but also how much investors or market are willing to pay for that EPS. In this case given much lower profitability and unsustainable competition market has decided to assign higher multiple for TSMC instead of Chinese companies. This is how market works unfortunately. TSMC has near monopoly power too. Outside China/HK Tencent and Alibaba cant do much. I personally will assign much higher premium for company with monopoly power that can"
X Link 2026-02-11T07:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A finance minister not knowing the use of a countrys budget Very interesting @KemenkeuRI Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa belum mengetahui ihwal rencana pemerintah melunasi utang Kereta Cepat Jakarta-Bandung (KJCB) atau Whoosh Rp12 triliun per tahun menggunakan APBN. Purbaya menyebut baru akan https://t.co/Sl5KssbmTU #keretacepat #utang #apbn https://t.co/gipjDiDyV1 Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa belum mengetahui ihwal rencana pemerintah melunasi utang Kereta Cepat Jakarta-Bandung (KJCB) atau Whoosh Rp12 triliun per tahun menggunakan APBN. Purbaya menyebut baru"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The scale of Coinbases quarterly loss is less a mystery about reckless risk-taking than a reminder of how unforgiving its business model becomes when the crypto cycle turns because the company remains fundamentally an exchange whose revenues are overwhelmingly tied to retail trading activity that can evaporate far faster than its cost base can be reduced. When market volatility subsides and prices drift lower transaction volumes fall sharply fee income contracts almost immediately and the operating leverage that flatters earnings in bull markets reverses with equal force leaving a largely"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Looking at both charts showing the active ETF surge: Active ETFs are eating passive's lunch Based on data from JP Morgan Asset Management active ETFs pulled in US$473bn in [----] claiming 32% of all US ETF inflows. That's nearly double their 18% share in [----]. The shift marks a notable reversal in investor behavior. The [----] ETF Rule changed everything: by allowing custom in-kind baskets it let active managers protect their strategies while using the ETF structure. Active products went from 16% of launches before the rule to 56% after. Of the [----] ETFs launched post-regulation [----] (76% of"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@dgt10011 Yuan to become reserve currency No chance. China cant even figure out how to get out of deflation hole"
X Link 2026-02-17T02:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Absolute return. Forward-looking occasionally contrarian thinking at institutional standards. Free. No hidden agendas. DYOR. Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer or any affiliated entity. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. An intelligent heart acquires knowledge and the ear of the wise seeks knowledge. Proverbs 18:15"
X Link 2026-01-30T08:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The Richest Man in Babylon presents timeless financial principles through parables set in ancient Babylon and while its primarily a personal finance classic its lessons translate remarkably well to technology leadership and organizational resource management. From a CIOs vantage point the books core tenets about paying yourself first living below your means and making your money work for you become analogous to strategic technology investment principles where organizations must consistently allocate resources to technical debt reduction infrastructure modernization and capability building"
X Link 2026-02-16T10:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"BREAKING: Coinbase $COIN unexpectedly reports a large quarterly loss posting quarterly EPS of -$2.49 compared to expectations of $0.96. The company posted a net loss of -$667 million last quarter"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:18Z 1.4M followers, 712.3K engagements

"Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa belum mengetahui ihwal rencana pemerintah melunasi utang Kereta Cepat Jakarta-Bandung (KJCB) atau Whoosh Rp12 triliun per tahun menggunakan APBN. Purbaya menyebut baru akan #keretacepat #utang #apbn https://www.instagram.com/p/DUrIDJBAeVq/utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter https://www.instagram.com/p/DUrIDJBAeVq/utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:02Z 991.2K followers, [----] engagements

"The oil price rally is a central ingredient in this mix amplifying inflationary pressure tightening financial conditions and complicating the policy response far more than current consensus pricing implies. https://t.co/LjVEYD40Gk https://t.co/LjVEYD40Gk"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Fed at a Precarious Juncture: A Contrarian Macro View The next Federal Reserve Chair likely to be appointed soon by President Trump will inherit a macro environment that is far more complex than markets currently acknowledge. While the President has http://x.com/i/article/2016929335001960448 http://x.com/i/article/2016929335001960448"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"While the rest of America innovates construction gets less productive. The culprit isn't tech it is regulation. Land use restrictions have offset nearly all productivity gains from innovation since [----]. The country is literally regulating themselves into a housing crisis. GS still has one of the best economic research on the Street in my view. A good weekend read indeed. Link to the full note: https://1drv.ms/b/c/11898ad3297393ea/IQDqYhyRZFN5TYO22OCJ_KA6AYYHbLjueO8-wqjyQnglI90 https://1drv.ms/b/c/11898ad3297393ea/IQDqYhyRZFN5TYO22OCJ_KA6AYYHbLjueO8-wqjyQnglI90"
X Link 2026-02-08T10:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"However as usual brokers will flee when the chicken roosters sense danger. Below is a contract-risk review of the CGSI retail terms and conditions on account openings. You can get it here Well I am not saying CGSI is doing wash trading. I am flagging clauses that reduce accountability weaken client recourse or allow execution behavior that could be exploited in a wash-trading style ecosystem. I am sure any other brokers would use the similar as well. Logically you don't usually prepare defenses unless there is something to defend😆 1) "Execution-only" plus "CGSI can be your counterparty"."
X Link 2026-02-02T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"In Konoha liquidity could be manufactured with wash trading method routinely used to create the appearance of depth and turnover even in stocks that are included in MSCI indices where volumes may look robust and bid ask spreads may appear orderly yet the ability to transact size without moving the price remains largely illusory. Brokers sit at the center of this mechanism facilitating circular trades across related nominee accounts earning commissions on each turn and providing the operational infrastructure that keeps reported activity elevated while the economic reality is that genuine"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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