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@junkbondinvest Avatar @junkbondinvest junkbondinvestor

Concerns are growing about the private credit market, with warnings that it may be showing similar red flags to the junk bond market of the past. Investors are pouring money into private credit funds, but some are questioning the safety and liquidity of these investments. Several high-profile cases, including the collapse of First Brands, have raised concerns about the sector's risk and potential for widespread defaults.

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Social category influence finance XXXXX% stocks #3677 countries XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX%

Social topic influence debt #627, money 4.55%, finance #1166, stocks 2.27%, $12b 2.27%, $whr #6, tariffs #2102, $ea #4, $300b #2, $500m XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @illiquidinsight @logoinvestor @leylakuni @acaciacap @slackwatercap @museywags @tylerhardt @breidcredit @vince_ltd @billyninelives @bigba11r @hybondlover @mike27590140 @dkarbowitz @bondhack @ericgplatt @semitgtprince @askmehowe @stevenjollyffg @st33lmouse

Top assets mentioned Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Brookfield Corporation (BN) KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR) Blackstone, Inc. (BX) BlackRock Inc (BLK) Morgan Stanley (MS) DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) PRiVCY (PRIV) FUNtoken (FUN)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"777 Partners raised hundreds of millions from "sophisticated" lenders allegedly using: - Fake financial statements ✓ - Inflated assets ✓ - Collateral pledged to multiple lenders ✓ - Assets that didn't exist ✓ Founder charged with $500M fraud CFO already cooperating Asset-backed is only as good as asset verification. Guess nobody verified"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T03:53Z 38.8K followers, 64.1K engagements

"BDO borrowed $1.3B from Apollo at X% to fund their ESOP BDO gave First Brands clean audit in March First Brands collapsed months later Apollo (BDOs lender) was shorting First Brands debt BDO now laying off staff to manage Apollo debt payments Nothing to see here just normal audit independence"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-11T18:57Z 38.8K followers, 204.3K engagements

"Private credit showing XX% historical correlation to leveraged loans. But dont worry its definitely safer because they do more diligence and know the borrowers better"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T15:31Z 38.8K followers, 48.4K engagements

"Car loans used to be the safest bet in consumer credit because people always needed a car (you cant get to work without it) XX years later delinquencies up 50%+ now riskier than credit cards The sector contagion makes sense now"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T19:39Z 38.8K followers, 28.7K engagements

"First Brands DIP budget show $134mm in restructuring fees in XX weeks. Thats $10mm+ per week in professional fees just to sort through this mess. Bankruptcy is expensive. Fraud bankruptcies are REALLY expensive"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T20:02Z 38.8K followers, 92.6K engagements

"Trigger warning: Private asset marketing material 🤭"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-21T17:18Z 38.8K followers, 80.8K engagements

"Who is trading this still Lol $BLIAQ"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2024-09-02T23:03Z 38.7K followers, 5197 engagements

"Can't exit PE portfolios Flee to private credit Can't get distributions Flee to private credit Can't justify 2+20 Flee to private credit The solution to everything is. private credit"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-06-17T19:46Z 38.7K followers, 24.3K engagements

"Traditional dividend policy: Pay from earnings and cash flow Modern dividend strategy: Borrow money to fund special payouts $TDG"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-12T13:49Z 38.6K followers, 22.7K engagements

"Secondaries marketed as "liquidity solution" while keeping everything in private markets. The liquidity is just changing which PE fund owns it"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-20T18:31Z 38.6K followers, 6959 engagements

"2020: PE firms hire banks for debt deals 2023: PE firms become banks 2025: PE firms underwrite their own deals 2027: PE firms rate their own credit The circle of fees is complete"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-25T17:52Z 38.6K followers, 49.6K engagements

"CLOs reviewing their exposure to First Brands"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-04T16:16Z 38.7K followers, 17.4K engagements

"The progression from financial reporting irregularities to $XXX billion simply vanished to we dont know if we received $XXX billion happened in under XX days. This is what robust underwriting discipline looks like"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-09T16:09Z 38.6K followers, 23.6K engagements

"Retail investors added $100B to private credit funds over the past year bringing the total to $213B. Meanwhile BCRED cut its dividend 9%. Major bankruptcies showing hidden exposures. Apollo Ares Blue Owl stocks all down. The money comes in right as the problems show up. Every single time"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-12T15:51Z 38.7K followers, 80K engagements

"2025 PE deal dynamics: Deal count: -X% y/y Deal value: +19% y/y Deals over $1B: XX% of activity The strategy: Fewer but larger transactions The middle market continues to die quietly"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T22:11Z 38.7K followers, 10.1K engagements

"PIK toggle activity: All-time highs Can't pay interest - Just owe more money instead This is what "high quality underwriting" looks like apparently"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-15T22:22Z 38.6K followers, 54.6K engagements

"Every single red flag was visible before First Brands raised $12B: ✗ String of bankruptcies in 2000s ✗ Multiple fraud allegations ✗ Professionally scrubbed internet presence ✗ Margins far exceeded competitors They lent billions anyway Must read article by @BondHack @EricGPlatt"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-15T23:35Z 38.7K followers, 25.1K engagements

"Who remembers when Vice Media was worth $XXX billion and everyone thought they'd figured out the future of journalism X years later they filed for bankruptcy and sold for $350M Here's how it all fell apart:"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T22:00Z 38.7K followers, 8726 engagements

"Whirlpool watching Asian competitors front-run tariffs with promotions: "This wasn't in the America First playbook" Cuts EPS guidance by $2-4. Stock: -XX% $WHR"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-07-28T21:10Z 38.8K followers, 25.4K engagements

"REITs in July 2025: Hotels XX% discount to NAV healthcare XX% above Avoid travel embrace aging 🤝 Source: S&P"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-05T17:13Z 38.8K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Banks actively competing to lend at 250bps over for data centers. The competition to fund the bubble"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-05T14:20Z 38.8K followers, 15K engagements

"Blue Owl's tech BDC has XX% of their portfolio in PIK where companies pay you with more IOUs instead of cash. Their defense These are "good PIKs" not "bad PIKs." Source: FT"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-19T17:01Z 38.8K followers, 43.2K engagements

"Public markets up double digits. Your PE fund flat. Youre stuck defending a 7x levered HVAC roll-up. And still have X years left on lockup"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-24T23:12Z 38.8K followers, 103.1K engagements

"Howard Marks selling his remaining Oaktree stake right as: - Alternative managers consolidating at record valuations - BlackRock paying $12B+ for competitors - Everyone racing to build credit platforms Guy who made his fortune on distressed debt timing the exit perfectly. Again"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T17:52Z 38.8K followers, 156.8K engagements

"New academic study (analyzing XXX funds) calls private credit returns "illusory" that uses "mark-to-myth" accounting: Limited alpha vs. leveraged loans (beat in X of X years) 2015 vintage funds still XX% unrealized in 2024 Valuations have "room for interpretation" (lol) Academics chose violence"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-18T20:11Z 38.8K followers, 29.1K engagements

"Carlyle CEO just said the quiet part out loud: "Late cycle credit volatility should be on a worry list" Then added: "But nothing suggests things are crumbling" Pick which sentence to believe"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-19T23:53Z 38.8K followers, 11.3K engagements

"HY market last week: - XXX% China tariff announced (then walked back) - VIX spiked to highest since April - Government shutdown continues (no economic data) - Only X deals priced ($3.9B) Despite all this: HY spreads tightened XX bps to 293bps Risk assets shrugging off literally everything"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-20T14:03Z 38.8K followers, 11.2K engagements

"Whirlpool pivoting from appliance manufacturer to tariff enforcement whistleblower is exactly the kind of innovation Ive come to expect $WHR"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-15T16:35Z 38.8K followers, 10.3K engagements

"JPMorgan paid $175M for Frank after due diligence that: - Missed X MILLION fake users - Thought BofA was bidding (nope CapOne withdrew same day) - Email blast to "millions of users" yielded XX accounts Peak institutional DD"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-30T00:52Z 38.8K followers, 131.6K engagements

"Jefferies: Exposure limited to $45M readily absorbable Same weekend: Morgan Stanley requesting redemption from Point Bonita When mgmt says limited and investors head for exits the exposure concern is contagion not direct"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T13:14Z 38.8K followers, 28.9K engagements

"PE firms this year: Can't find good software deals (AI disruption) Can't invest in healthcare (regulatory nightmare) Can't do industrials (tariffs) What's left Pizza. Always pizza. $PZZA"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T22:13Z 38.8K followers, 26.5K engagements

"Dimon: "One cockroach means more cockroaches" Lipschultz: "Maybe the cockroaches are at JPMorgan. This is syndicated market problems." Meanwhile the stock market has opinions"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-15T21:56Z 38.8K followers, 22.3K engagements

"Universities are worried about PE entering college sports and changing financial incentives. Penn State just committed $XX million to a coaching buyout. The financial incentives already changed"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-16T14:14Z 38.8K followers, 7905 engagements

"The Most Interesting Trade in the $XX Billion $EA LBO:"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T00:09Z 38.8K followers, 6512 engagements

"Tech companies need massive data centers. Dont want b/s debt. Private capital wants yield on long-dated infrastructure assets. Want the fees/recurring revenues. MS create SPVs solving both problems. The precedent means more of these deals coming"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T15:21Z 38.8K followers, 15.7K engagements

"Apollo: Default rates for HY bonds and loans have peaked and are coming down Three reasons: Trade war clarity AI boom industrial renaissance Meanwhile BDCs trading at multi-year lows"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-19T21:00Z 38.8K followers, 15.9K engagements

"Private equity exit dynamics: 2019: XX% of exits sold to other PE firms 2025: XX% PE-to-PE When your industry stops buying from itself the exit queue grows. Source: FT"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T15:19Z 38.8K followers, 41.3K engagements

"EA buyout will be largest LBO ever at $48.4B Notice that half of the top XX LBOs were done in 2007 (TXU Equity Office First Data Kinder Morgan) Sometimes the record deals happen at exactly the wrong time Source: Bloomberg"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-16T18:25Z 38.8K followers, 18.3K engagements

"While equity holders celebrate their XX% takeover premium sleepy IG bondholders who bought $EA's 2051s in the 60s are staring at 50%+ returns. More than double the equity return. With a contractual put at XXX. Yet the bonds trade at XX an 11-point discount. Why is nobody arbitraging this gap Theres a catch:"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T00:08Z 38.8K followers, 42.7K engagements

"Everyone: restaurants dying = weak consumer = recession coming That's what bears say. Casual dining traffic rolling over middle-income consumers eating out less. Except DoorDash sitting near 52-week highs. If consumer wallets were truly cracking discretionary delivery fees would collapse first. They haven't"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-20T16:23Z 38.8K followers, 42.3K engagements

"PE deal activity September 2025: $300B total value (highest since 21) Deal count also increased significantly $EA $55B take-private drove headlines but $245B came from other deals Both volume and value rising = broader recovery not just mega-deal driven"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-22T13:44Z 38.8K followers, 5856 engagements

"CLOs entering their first bankruptcy process"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-22T23:32Z 38.8K followers, 9656 engagements

"Democratize access to alternative investments Democratization = selling illiquid high-fee products to people who cant evaluate them right when institutional money is cautious. If PE is such great opportunity institutional allocators would be increasing commitments. Theyre not. So pivot to retail under democratization banner"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-04T20:21Z 38.8K followers, 18.9K engagements

"The private credit ETF experiment is going exactly as you'd expect: - $PRIV sitting at $54mm - No new flows in 6+ weeks - X% actual private credit exposure - Everyone else pivoting to interval funds Maybe retail investors aren't as desperate for illiquid assets as Wall Street thinks"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-04-17T17:03Z 38.8K followers, 6020 engagements

"Brightline secured debt now in the 40s At least the trains look nice.😅"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-06T00:34Z 38.8K followers, 31K engagements

"Reminder: First Brands was a widely held BSL and $2.3B allegedly just vanished Now think about private credit deals with 2-3 lenders quarterly (maybe) reporting and marks set by the people who made the loan If this happened in the visible market whats happening in the invisible one"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-10T18:05Z 38.8K followers, 121.1K engagements

"Apollo shorted First Brands debt before its $10B+ collapse Now Apollo (along with Sona Axebrook) shorting Adler Pelzer another auto-parts supplier XX% of bonds out on loan; bonds: XX - XX cents When Apollo keeps shorting your sector pay attention"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-17T15:37Z 38.8K followers, 193.5K engagements

"Public markets don't trust BDC valuations anymore Stocks now down to multi-year lows many below NAV Bond spreads up to April panic levels New issue concessions doubling Investors want to know: How much Tricolor How much First Brands What else"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-18T16:57Z 38.8K followers, 31.7K engagements

"Trade finance depends on invoice authenticity and single assignment. But First Brands bankruptcy suggests receivables were assigned to multiple parties. Each lender thought they had exclusive claim all discovered they were funding the same underlying assets"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-21T11:59Z 38.8K followers, 16.2K engagements

"Banks lost market share to private credit post-financial crisis regulations. Their response Lend massively to private credit funds. NDFI lending grew XXX% since 2015 fastest-growing loan category. Now banks both compete with AND finance alternative lenders simultaneously"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-21T12:42Z 38.8K followers, 18.8K engagements

"Activist hedge funds used to hire consultants and industry experts Now they hire Travis Kelce Janas thesis: Better marketing customer experience modern tech Also: Kelce is Taylor Swifts fianc with 300M+ followers $FUN"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-21T19:54Z 38.8K followers, 13.5K engagements

"PrimaLend (subprime auto lender) just filed bankruptcy Weeks after Tricolor collapsed. Months after missing debt payments. During record subprime auto delinquencies Dimon: When you see one cockroach there are probably more The auto finance cockroaches keep appearing"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-22T15:10Z 38.8K followers, 31.7K engagements

"Banks warning about private credit quality while funding its growth: Wells Fargo: $60B lent to private credit BofA: $33B PNC: $30B JPM: $22B Total: Nearly $300B Cant raise alarms about cockroaches when youre the one feeding them"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-22T23:18Z 38.8K followers, 96.8K engagements

"Audit independence and PE ownership fundamentally incompatible. You cant audit companies your investor also owns"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-23T16:10Z 38.8K followers, 7084 engagements