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@junkbondinvest Avatar @junkbondinvest junkbondinvestor

Private credit and debt management are significant concerns, with many companies struggling with debt servicing and lenders upgrading default ratings. Several high-profile cases of corporate mismanagement and financial manipulation have come to light, including a company allegedly being run as a "personal piggy bank" by its founder. The private credit market is growing, with firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR expanding their operations, but this growth also raises concerns about credit quality and risk.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XXXXX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% countries XXXX% technology brands XXXX%

Social topic influence debt #1732, ai 7.02%, $1b 5.26%, warner bros 5.26%, $72b 5.26%, $nflx 5.26%, $whr 3.51%, $59b 3.51%, $113b 3.51%, future XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @roshan_gudapati @emdiggers @jon2031473173 @ajacksonhole @mrjulius007 @wolfofwalkerst @loveandmoney15 @mitchyboicrypto @illiquidinsight @tonitrades_ @eyecreate_ken @archegosintern @acapitallp @austin_lebahn @yp80000 @tylerhardt @mikefritzell @tidefallcapital @s_williams_jr

Top assets mentioned Netflix Inc (NFLX) Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) Bitcoin (BTC) GameStop, Corp. (GME) Lazard Ltd. Class A (LAZ) Landwolf (WOLF) Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. Common Stock (GEHC) Bally's Corporation (BALY) Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) Strategy (MSTR) Stride (STRD) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Fitch private credit default rates in October by borrower size: Under $25M EBITDA: XXXX% $25M-$50M EBITDA: XXX% Smaller borrowers defaulting at nearly 4x the rate of mid-sized peers The companies that needed private credit most are struggling most"
X Link 2025-11-24T14:04Z 41.1K followers, 77.4K engagements

"GameStop raised $4.2B at X% interest this year. A video game retailer in 2025. $GME's balance sheet: $8.7B cash 4710 bitcoin Converts trading at XXX Cohen can buy equities crypto companies or nothing Are the converts cheap optionality or expensive uncertainty Earnings tomorrow. My thoughts below"
X Link 2025-12-08T23:12Z 41.1K followers, 8662 engagements

"Direct lending deal count at lowest level since Q4 2023. Direct lending volume at highest since Q2 2024. Seven $1B+ deals in November. Diversification is a choice. Source: LCD"
X Link 2025-12-11T18:44Z 41.1K followers, 5309 engagements

"Whirlpool watching Asian competitors front-run tariffs with promotions: "This wasn't in the America First playbook" Cuts EPS guidance by $2-4. Stock: -XX% $WHR"
X Link 2025-07-28T21:10Z 41.1K followers, 25.5K engagements

"Public markets up double digits. Your PE fund flat. Youre stuck defending a 7x levered HVAC roll-up. And still have X years left on lockup"
X Link 2025-09-24T23:12Z 41.1K followers, 103.3K engagements

"EA buyout will be largest LBO ever at $48.4B Notice that half of the top XX LBOs were done in 2007 (TXU Equity Office First Data Kinder Morgan) Sometimes the record deals happen at exactly the wrong time Source: Bloomberg"
X Link 2025-10-16T18:25Z 41.1K followers, 18.7K engagements

"$750M valuation for AI that makes PowerPoints and financial models That's what junior banking analyst work is worth Customers already using it: Lazard Moelis Tiger Global Junior bankers: Your mentors are paying for software to replace you while you're still there"
X Link 2025-10-28T11:40Z 41.1K followers, 32K engagements

"China is spending billions to control the silicon carbide supply chain The US has exactly one scaled domestic producer $WOLF It just emerged from bankruptcy with the debt wiped clean Post-reorg equity you don't usually see"
X Link 2025-11-14T19:54Z 41.1K followers, 13.1K engagements

"Heres the setup:"
X Link 2025-11-14T19:55Z 41.1K followers, 3195 engagements

"Blue Owl's solution to rising redemptions: Step 1: Block redemptions in $1B retail fund Step 2: Force merger with fund trading XX% below NAV Step 3: Investors take XX% loss lose redemption rights permanently Step 4: CFO calls it a "no-brainer at XX cents" Redemptions climbed to X% of NAV in Q3 So they eliminated redemptions entirely Problem solved"
X Link 2025-11-16T20:50Z 41.1K followers, 369.6K engagements

"CD&R raising debt to buy Sealed Air the company that invented Bubble Wrap. We are literally leveraging the bubble 😅"
X Link 2025-11-18T17:24Z 41.1K followers, 7439 engagements

"Private credit is now XX% of BDC assets Meanwhile BDC total assets: $250B - $590B Liquid wrappers for illiquid loans"
X Link 2025-11-24T18:49Z 41.1K followers, 20.9K engagements

"Lipschultz on Q3 call: People have worked themselves into this imaginary world where theres some big credit problem Market response: Stock down XX% since July short interest surging vs. flat at Ares/Apollo The imagination is very liquid"
X Link 2025-11-24T19:01Z 41.1K followers, 12.5K engagements

"KBRA: Record XX private credit borrowers now rated CCC- XX% of debt maturing before 2026 has high leverage or negative EBITDA X straight quarters of more downgrades than upgrades Low default rates KBRA says they "don't reflect true extent of stress""
X Link 2025-11-25T18:46Z 41.1K followers, 13.1K engagements

"Private credits reported default rate: 1.3%. Actual rate including PIK conversions and maturity extensions: 4.6%. Concerns are hysterical though"
X Link 2025-12-01T15:49Z 41.1K followers, 18.5K engagements

"Responding to the private credit myths: Myth 1: $40T market only $2T is leveraged lending Redefining private credit to include all non-public debt to minimize the problem. The risky $2T is whats breaking. Myth 2: More transparent than public credit Transparent to the lender opaque to everyone else. Academics called it mark to myth. DOJ warned about fund-to-fund marks this week. Blue Owl blocked redemptions when marks met reality. BDCs trading XX% below stated NAV. Myth 3: Its tradable - $6B traded YTD $6B out of how much total If its liquid why did Blue Owl block redemptions and force a"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:57Z 41.1K followers, 60.4K engagements

"Asset-backed finance now $6T heading to $9T by 2029 Larger than syndicated loans HY bonds and direct lending combined Marketed as safer through pooled diversification First Brands just pledged the same receivables to multiple lenders Where there is a lot of money to lend there is a lot of money to lose"
X Link 2025-12-04T15:14Z 41.1K followers, 20.7K engagements

"Netflix acquiring Warner Bros. for $72B Remember when legacy media said Netflix was "just tech" and launched competing services to kill them $NFLX just bought the competition"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:12Z 41.1K followers, 89.8K engagements

"David Ellison reading the news this morning $PSKY"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:13Z 41.1K followers, 81.8K engagements

"UBS billionaire clients planning allocations: Cutting: Private equity funds (highest decrease of all categories) Increasing: Direct PE investments (highest increase) They're going direct to avoid: 2-and-20 fee structure Continuation vehicles Carry on unrealized gains Decade-long lockups Meanwhile 18000 PE funds are fundraising for $X of demand per $X of supply The LPs finally did the math"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:24Z 41.1K followers, 13.6K engagements

"Situation so bad that First Brands' DIP is trading at XX cents DIPs are super-senior bankruptcy financing First in repayment priority Supposed to be low-risk When a DIP trades below par it means even the safest loan in the capital structure is impaired The existing 1L TL XXX cents"
X Link 2025-12-05T17:18Z 41.1K followers, 37.3K engagements

"Netflix taking on $59B bridge loan to buy Warner Bros. Just got upgraded to IG in 2023 Now adding debt that'll force ratings review One of the largest bridge loans EVER $72B for a library they said they didn't need Financed with debt they just escaped $NFLX"
X Link 2025-12-05T20:54Z 41.1K followers, 23.6K engagements

"US bankruptcy filings: XXX through November 2025 Highest since 2020 Up XX% from the 2022 low of XXX The cycle is back"
X Link 2025-12-08T03:15Z 41.1K followers, 8323 engagements

"Private credit margin compression speedrun: Q1 2023: XXX bps median spread Q4 2025: Sub-500 bps This month: Deals at XXX bps Banks: XXX bps What happened: Everyone raised billions and shifted to credit just as banks came back with cheaper pricing The denominator got bigger the returns got smaller"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:38Z 41.1K followers, 15.1K engagements

"Merck and GE Healthcare raised $XXXX billion in ONE DAY for acquisitions that wont close until 2026 Deals announced just X weeks earlier Q4 2025: $113B in M&A bond sales (highest in X years) Funding deals X months early because conditions are too good to wait"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:50Z 41.1K followers, 7596 engagements

"PE dealmaking in November: XX deals over $1B Bubble wrap company: $10.3B Snack foods: $3B Golf courses: $1.4B Prediction markets (Kalshi): $1B From materials to meme stocks. everythings getting bought"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:55Z 41.1K followers, 14.2K engagements

"Bally's couldn't get bank loan after trying to swap real collateral for unbuilt casino Got $1.1B from private credit instead The bid knows no bounds $BALY"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:35Z 41.1K followers, 15.3K engagements

"DIP lenders watching their loan trade at XX cents"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:11Z 41.1K followers, 15.8K engagements

"Whirlpool pivoting from appliance manufacturer to tariff enforcement whistleblower is exactly the kind of innovation Ive come to expect $WHR"
X Link 2025-09-15T16:35Z 41.1K followers, 11.3K engagements

"AI infra securitization growing faster than AI 8x in under X years $80B market now $115B projected by end of 2026 XX% data center-backed CDOs but make it AI"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:10Z 41.1K followers, 33K engagements

"Why PE wont sell zombies: Liquidate = lock in losses Losses = tank fund performance Bad performance = no new fundraising Better to hold $1T forever at inflated marks"
X Link 2025-11-12T20:16Z 41.1K followers, 43.4K engagements

"$113B in bridge loans committed for $WBD in one week Netflix: $59B unsecured (Wells BNP HSBC) Paramount: $54B secured (BofA Citi Apollo) Banks have been waiting for M&A to return Its back"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:50Z 41.1K followers, 28.9K engagements

"Is $MSTR quietly becoming a distressed credit story $736M/year in PF preferred dividends 2029 converts at XX cents (375 bps) Stock at NAV $STRD trading at steep discount (77 cents / 13%) Sell BTC and kill the thesis or cut the preferreds and save cash Broke down the full capital structure and whether any of it is worth owning"
X Link 2025-12-01T02:02Z 41.1K followers, 50K engagements

"Googles Gemini getting ads in 2026 The AI revolution now sponsored $GOOG"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:17Z 41.1K followers, 10.3K engagements

"Why institutional investors dont sue PE firms: Future fund access professional relationships career concerns etc. Why retail investors probably will: None of those constraints exist PE successfully lobbied for retail democratization May have democratized litigation instead"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:50Z 41.1K followers, 37.8K engagements

"Howard Marks just dropped a new memo. TL;DR: AI may be a bubble. It also might not be a bubble. The future is uncertain"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:57Z 41.1K followers, 21.2K engagements

"Private credit is bringing investors directly to borrowers. Not that much different than what Amazon did to revolutionize delivery BCRED redemptions same quarter: Tripled to XXX% Amazon has returns too"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:33Z 41.1K followers, 15K engagements