@fejau_inc fejau
There is a discussion about the future of Bitcoin, specifically the potential impact of decreasing mining rewards and the role of transaction fees in securing the network. Some users are also debating the significance of the four-year cycle in Bitcoin and whether it still applies. Meanwhile, market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve's actions, including the potential end of quantitative tightening (QT) and its implications for funding markets and the broader economy.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance 31.25% cryptocurrencies 8.75% technology brands 5.63% stocks #5692 countries 3.13% social networks 1.25% celebrities 1.25% currencies 0.63% exchanges 0.63% financial services 0.63%
Social topic influence in the 8.75%, ai #4748, market #3742, crypto 6.25%, money 4.38%, tariffs 4.38%, fed 3.75%, bitcoin 3.75%, the most 3.13%, balance sheet 3.13%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @qthomp @forwardguidance @andreassteno @tylerneville @aburnhard95 @fejauinc @dannydayan5 @marketspuke @bangitbot @dampedspring @grok @peetapeexpert @bickerinbrattle @benkizemchuk @chainlank @aahanprometheus @tyler_neville_ @vincentdeluard @lynaldencontact @thepumponomics
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Spotify Technology (SPOT) Cango Inc. American Depositary Shares (CANG)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Who's gonna finance it and what do they sell to do so And what happens to a market where hundreds of billions of $ of buybacks evaporate this year I think the rotation from growth to value factor underlines the market trying to digest these questions Headline indices look resilient because value is surging while growth is breaking down Under the surface AI data center CapEx is introducing credit risk and "removing buybacks at a time when everybody is long those stocks" @fejau_inc https://t.co/xKdrZUbGH4 Headline indices look resilient because value is surging while growth is breaking down"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:32Z 82.7K followers, 22.1K engagements
"In world of noisy economic data with endless revisions and seasonal adjustments I'm a huge fan of looking at tax collections via the treasury daily statement data. Hard data money in money out no adjustments. And as @VincentDeluard discusses it was up 24% yoy vs last january Tax receipts say no recession and growth is accelerating "In the next four weeks were gonna get about $200 billion in tax refund checks and when you have a windfall gain you just spend it right away. @VincentDeluard https://t.co/9OHy7jpuLi Tax receipts say no recession and growth is accelerating "In the next four weeks"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:20Z 82.7K followers, 17.9K engagements
"The normie redditor world crashing out about 4o model being deprecated is so freaky - full on black mirror ai psychosis"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:02Z 82.7K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Four year cycle doesnt exist. [----] cycle died when Powell hiked rates QT tantrum blowup December [----] [----] cycle died when Fed went on most aggressive hiking cycle ever [----] were cutting rates and easing meaningfully It was always macro and [--] year cycle idea was spurious Thank you for your attention to this matter Rate cut in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then we have a new Fed Chair in May who will make Bernanke look like Paul Volker. Enjoy missing out on the next bull market cycle theorists. Rate cut in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then we"
X Link 2025-10-23T22:22Z 82.7K followers, 359.2K engagements
"Chumba logging on and deciding whether to crash out about quantum or AI everyday @chumbawamba22"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:25Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time private payrolls surging UR down. The economy is re-accelerating"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:23Z 82.7K followers, 30.9K engagements
"New episode out with @VincentDeluard who is one of my favorite macro thinkers these days. He has an exceptional understanding of whats happening these days NEW POD: How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally We Cover: 🔸 [----] nominal growth boom 🔸 Second wave of inflation 🔸 The pessimism bubble 🔸 Warsh PMs investing out of U.S. & more @VincentDeluard @fejau_inc Links Below Apple 🎙: https://t.co/QKiOpJZ4y1 Spotify 🎙: https://t.co/PbPy3Xwo7A NEW POD: How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally We Cover: 🔸 [----] nominal growth boom 🔸 Second wave of inflation 🔸 The pessimism bubble 🔸 Warsh PMs investing out"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:51Z 82.7K followers, 12.3K engagements
"With this week's jobs revisions my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the other side of it The labor market bottomed and is now re-accelerating Januarys 130k non-farm payroll print is the first statistically meaningful job growth in a year pointing to an early-cycle re-acceleration. We had a little recession in the spring.and now were starting to lift off https://t.co/IwIVJc4QR0 The labor market bottomed and is now re-accelerating"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:28Z 82.7K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Every fundamental positive headline gets sold into. Broken market. Sad days"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:51Z 82.7K followers, 73.2K engagements
"Openclaw built me a better portfolio dashboard than any single one Ive paid for and took me one hour of casual prompting while sitting on my couch and now if I want to make any sort of tweak or add a specific feature it takes [--] mins and its done Absolutely insane"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:34Z 82.7K followers, 65.4K engagements
"It appears Digital Asset Treasury companies have two options at this juncture"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:55Z 82.6K followers, 42.6K engagements
"I disagree. If youre a foreign investor you can buy metals in your own domestic currency denomination and those metals are not anchored to a specific base currency But if you want to own MAG7 you need to own dollars before the trade and after the trade and so it matters where that currency moves But yeah for a domestic US investors you still not as relevant. But Id argue the marginal capital flow of foreign investors is what is the most important right now Appreciate your perspective"
X Link 2026-01-25T00:53Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"So AI is creating incredible tools that are 10xing productivity every week and the best crypto can do right now is celebrate when a meme coin that mirrors a new AI product has no direct benefit or association with that product so people can freely speculate on it Quite the industry we have rn I am optimistic that things improve but man its embarrassing rn Crypto is getting deservedly lapped by AI right now This Clawdbot coin is a pivotal moment for our coins. The guy behind it all came out and said he wants nothing to do with the coin and will never support it. Price went up anyways due to"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:51Z 82.6K followers, 109.3K engagements
"this is the most boring FOMC day in a long time"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:48Z 82.6K followers, 18.2K engagements
"The reason gold is ripping and btc isnt is because the debasement trade is more vibes and the real marginal mover here is china capital flight and Chinese arent interested in Bitcoin aka the American trump coin Thank you for coming to my ted talk"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:47Z 82.6K followers, 302.6K engagements
"To reduce the balance sheet any further would require a total restructuring of how the Fed employs monetary policy and controls front end rates Yes the Fed buying MBS again is much less likely and thats a good thing. But the balance sheet isnt going lower now that Im Fed Chair we should look at reducing the balance sheet no okay https://t.co/44U0FD5oMD now that Im Fed Chair we should look at reducing the balance sheet no okay https://t.co/44U0FD5oMD"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:39Z 82.6K followers, 31.7K engagements
"Posted my entire trading log history in Claude to ask for feedback and it basically roasted me for ever trying to trade bonds and told me to give up 👍"
X Link 2026-01-31T01:23Z 82.6K followers, 59K engagements
"@DuncanZahringer uhhh one month frequency with an N=1 tells you nothing about statistical significance lmao this is noise"
X Link 2026-01-31T01:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@hotpotato3141 Most of those are lagging indicators to the leading ones I posted give it time. And truflation I dont take seriously"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:11Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Seems the vibe is shifting on MAG7 in markets today. Here's the clip of my full META analysis on last week's roundup on AI Capex. What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:07Z 82.6K followers, 81.7K engagements
"Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:36Z 82.6K followers, 105.2K engagements
"Amazon Capex $200b street estimate was $146b. Stock down 10% AH. The beat of the drum continues Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. https://t.co/Lvj5tujjAx Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. https://t.co/Lvj5tujjAx"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:11Z 82.6K followers, 26.6K engagements
"Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:15Z 82.6K followers, 24.4K engagements
"basically impossible to get a recession when you're doing $600b of new marginal capex in a year btw [---] billion dollars of Capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective this is more than what we spent on the U.S. interstate highway system (630 billion) more than what we spent on the Apollo Moon Program (257 billion) more than what we spent on [---] billion dollars of Capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective this is more than what we spent on the U.S. interstate highway system (630 billion) more than what we spent on the Apollo"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:19Z 82.6K followers, 117.3K engagements
"It seems like this has become the question du jour that markets are trying to figure out. @dampedspring and I discussed it at length in early Jan check it out AI capex is funded by its own spending loop. @dampedspring The money that funds the debt comes from the spending the debt creates. Borrow build pay suppliers and those dollars re-emerge as the capital that absorbs issuance. https://t.co/AMjDTAIuBw AI capex is funded by its own spending loop. @dampedspring The money that funds the debt comes from the spending the debt creates. Borrow build pay suppliers and those dollars re-emerge as the"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:21Z 82.6K followers, 19.8K engagements
"@MattSchmenk @qthomp Space data centers yo"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:22Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@0xKNL__ Im saying positive gdp growth but labor force getting wrecked. Discussed it in roundup we recorded today: What does a world of 4% gdp growth but large layoffs look like"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:11Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @Icebergy: the vcs who funded all the dats and are now saying crypto is forever dead are some of the obnoxious people on this site"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:12Z 82.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure where any old catalyst leads to the reflexive end point of a [--] year cycle. If I torture the headlines enough I could rationalize that this selloff is also monetary hawkishness driven ( Warsh nomination imploding all debasement trades) and force it into my framework but I think that belittles that those that followed thiss framework also nailed it. Well played and bravo 🤙 Four year cycle doesnt"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:32Z 82.6K followers, 37.7K engagements
"@10delta Fascinating. Recorded a roundup yesterday and at the end was asking what does the world look like with 4% real gdp growth and layoffs Will look into this"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:01Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"banger. I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:53Z 82.6K followers, 22.5K engagements
"RT @shaundadevens: http://x.com/i/article/2019733351691702272 http://x.com/i/article/2019733351691702272"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:46Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"New roundup up One of my favorites in a while. So much to talk about. @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @ForwardGuidance https://www.youtube.com/watchv=2y0sd446dJ0 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=2y0sd446dJ0"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:55Z 82.6K followers, 15.6K engagements
"@JamesChristoph_ . @grok is this true"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:38Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@JamesChristoph_ @qthomp revenue sure but what about free cash flow"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:55Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@LynAldenContact balance sheet going any lower is highly unlikely but the bar for meaningful balance sheet expansion and outright QE is now much higher and therefore the Fed put strike price much lower"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:10Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@RetailGaslight https://x.com/fejau_inc/status/2019781373993918929 Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure where any old catalyst leads to the reflexive end point of a [--] year cycle. https://x.com/fejau_inc/status/2019781373993918929 Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:42Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Then why do capex numbers keep beat street estimates Obviously not fully baked in Weird comment dude"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:54Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Amazon capex is 50% higher than what was expected. It clearly isnt fully understood"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:58Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Tyler works at muddy waters. How is that not a professional manager I know its kinda youre thing but you can really be a pompous dick sometimes"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:06Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp And Ive also been talking about this dynamic for many months. This isnt the first time Im talking about it. Can find stuff as far back as early fall. Again weird vibe youre on today Andreas"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:09Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp It would be a reality check for these guys to chat to a few professional managers ocassionally This is a very different point that youre making actually"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:10Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp I know its a reasonable view. Im Wondering why you feel like you have to be so elitist about it"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:10Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp For example this is from November Youre implying like we just discovered this AIs CapEx surge is entering a new phase driven by credit not equity By next year nearly 80% of FCF will be funneled directly into AI CapEx forcing bond markets to fill the gap This is an important shift because credit investors generally have a fundamentally different risk https://t.co/0sd2qaPNOP AIs CapEx surge is entering a new phase driven by credit not equity By next year nearly 80% of FCF will be funneled directly into AI CapEx forcing bond markets to fill the"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:14Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Tbh my dude the criticism has moved into so many different directions Im not really sure what your issue is anymore"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:22Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp I believe by people he means the average passive fund owner that became accidentally overweight mag7 and is unaware of this shit Not talking about a niche bottom up portfolio manager that spends [--] hours a week focusing on this stuff lol"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Shift* not shit"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@chumbawamba22 Bro just discovered risk management"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:11Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Absolute banger of a post One of the funny phenomena in the macroeconomic data world is that normies seem to be unaware that there are a dozen+ data sources simultaneously attempting to measure the same various components of the US labor market -- vacancies layoffs expected job creation realized job One of the funny phenomena in the macroeconomic data world is that normies seem to be unaware that there are a dozen+ data sources simultaneously attempting to measure the same various components of the US labor market -- vacancies layoffs expected job creation realized job"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:24Z 82.6K followers, 28.3K engagements
"Big if true was sent a pretty in-depth report on what's driving the crypto unwind. the short version: more sellers than buyers was sent a pretty in-depth report on what's driving the crypto unwind. the short version: more sellers than buyers"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:13Z 82.6K followers, 22.4K engagements
"@CryptoParadyme Same with the Feds hiking cycle though You need a multi variate regression here"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:57Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"🫡🚀 Used to think @fejau_inc was the star of Forward guidance and the others were entertainment But recently @qthomp has called metals and software well and @Tyler_Neville_ is dropping insights for the next quarter(s) The diversity of the team works across different regimes Used to think @fejau_inc was the star of Forward guidance and the others were entertainment But recently @qthomp has called metals and software well and @Tyler_Neville_ is dropping insights for the next quarter(s) The diversity of the team works across different regimes"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:46Z 82.6K followers, 19.9K engagements
"@Youclidean Its a better form of polling in that regard yeah But its not gonna be the next great consumer app because enough insider trading leads to marginal exit liquidity becoming broke"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:50Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@ThePumponomics Basic statistics around expected value and how many times you can roll a bet"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:02Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah Im not saying they need to. Im saying if someone is playing something where they think they have a 51% chance of winning a bet based on available information but in reality their odds of winning are actually 49% because their counter party as information that cannot be accessed by them when you run the numbers that person just eventually runs out of money When you aggregate that dynamic the feedback loop cannot be sustained. Insider training is illegal for more than just ethical reasons it also can sorta break math"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:15Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@ThePumponomics Yes and check out what happened lol every token is down only and we havent seen meaningful retail adoption in over [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:33Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"the economy is re-accelerating There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different than what weve seen over the past decade. https://t.co/MyUbzUxXrG There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different than what weve seen over the past decade. https://t.co/MyUbzUxXrG"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:28Z 82.6K followers, 46.7K engagements
"it's fun cause no matter what you post you'll always be called an idiot by the other side of the argument regardless @fejau_inc One of the notable things I notice under a lot of you and the other forward guidance bois posts about macro is how many people seem to have anchored themselves to the "we need hikes" and the "we're going to crash" mindset. [--] years of non stop financial doomerism took a toll on em @fejau_inc One of the notable things I notice under a lot of you and the other forward guidance bois posts about macro is how many people seem to have anchored themselves to the "we need"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:47Z 82.6K followers, 13K engagements
"@Tradermayne "The first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup." what in the hell is he talking about"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:27Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@xEbumx Haha yeah sadly Im 10x busier these days"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:44Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@Beav53 @0xkyle__ Im not talking about a market crash wtf"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:58Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@WarrenPies Im convinced were early business cycle and its gonna break a lot of peoples brains"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:30Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@Evan_ss6 there are good stonks to own out there"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:54Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@DannyDayan5 the long short boiz are fighting for their lives beneath the index hahahaha"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:40Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@lazyvillager1 Lesson in there"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:57Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@PeeTapeExpert There are plenty of people with plenty of money already the issue is these things are uninvestable in their current construct"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:03Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"well at least Saylor was able to get one last kick at the top blasting can"
X Link 2025-11-17T20:19Z 82.7K followers, 22.7K engagements
"@MarketsPuke @DannyDayan5 @Savanojito @EconstratPB These accounts are so fascinating. Dont tweet out anything themselves and their entire existence is being a reply guy and upset about other peoples views. Crazy to see"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:36Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Really nothing changing for me. Bullish energy metals commodities industrials and they all keep performing. Just sitting on these trades and not doing much. Continue to believe MAG7 and tech and therefore crypto w/ that correlation continues to underperform Energy and metals could be one of the clearest trades heading into next year because they make sense in so many potential regimes @fejau_inc ➤ Physical bottlenecks across key commodities ➤ Hedge against inflation/deficits ➤ Benefit from lower real rates ➤ Benefit from AI https://t.co/w8zxJObEfJ Energy and metals could be one of the"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:30Z 82.7K followers, 28.7K engagements
"@PeeTapeExpert Why would an economic re acceleration impact alt coins lmao"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:56Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@notthreadguy Real"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:42Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Tyler_Neville_ was just thinking that its time to test the conviction of these free trades"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:06Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:41Z 82.7K followers, 184.1K engagements
"Isnt this more representative of Covid bubble hiring excess thats been normalized than any sort of AI related thing no one is talking about this https://t.co/jIaZMQp8gX no one is talking about this https://t.co/jIaZMQp8gX"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:56Z 82.7K followers, 33.5K engagements
"Few more DAT unwinds then up only Another DAT bites the dust and pivots to AI. Cango puked 55% of their BTC last week the 4th biggest DAT sell ever after seeing its share price fall over 60% since adopting a Bitcoin standard and falling over 80% from all time high. https://t.co/dn9qcHLBNX Another DAT bites the dust and pivots to AI. Cango puked 55% of their BTC last week the 4th biggest DAT sell ever after seeing its share price fall over 60% since adopting a Bitcoin standard and falling over 80% from all time high. https://t.co/dn9qcHLBNX"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:29Z 82.7K followers, 32.3K engagements
"@chainlank Im confused where I inferred any of that Im just really excited here thats all"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:42Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@howtoswingtrade @chainlank Idk what happened to the algo but the quality of my replies to tweets has gotten way worse lately"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:28Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"the level of degeneracy we're about to experience is going to make [----] look like value investing"
X Link 2024-04-27T18:53Z 82.7K followers, 128.4K engagements
"If you guys understood how irresponsible and unhinged the macro situation is about to get you wouldnt be selling the most sensitive to excess liquidity digital assets in the world because the price broke your imaginary technical analysis lines"
X Link 2024-07-06T17:17Z 82.7K followers, 153.4K engagements
"bro is just rawdogging inflation huh Democratic Vice Presidential pick Tim Walz owns zero stocks bonds and mutual funds. He also holds no other securities or private investment as well as holds zero real estate. He only holds state pensions. Democratic Vice Presidential pick Tim Walz owns zero stocks bonds and mutual funds. He also holds no other securities or private investment as well as holds zero real estate. He only holds state pensions"
X Link 2024-08-07T20:28Z 82.7K followers, 328.9K engagements
"t bills about to outperform eth LMAO ETH is up 4% ytd ETH is up 4% ytd"
X Link 2024-09-05T19:23Z 82.7K followers, 137K engagements
"Kinda sucks that economic policy was like 3% of this entire debate. Really shows where the media is at. 90% of it is rage bait dividing questions on things barely relevant"
X Link 2024-09-11T02:19Z 82.7K followers, 125.7K engagements
"real ones know"
X Link 2024-11-08T00:35Z 82.7K followers, 51.7K engagements
"Having cobie back posting is a gift"
X Link 2024-11-21T04:25Z 82.7K followers, 80.2K engagements
"Much better. Market fully cleansed now not just BTC like last time"
X Link 2024-12-09T21:35Z 82.7K followers, 68.9K engagements
"are you guys excited for the new [--] month range"
X Link 2024-12-10T16:45Z 82.7K followers, 774.5K engagements
"Glad I didn't invest in that cryptocurrency stuff I heard it's down today"
X Link 2024-12-10T17:16Z 82.7K followers, 177K engagements
"The grift in the next [--] years will make SPACs look like value investing"
X Link 2024-12-23T21:35Z 82.7K followers, 69.1K engagements
"man what kind of nonsense did i just wake up to"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:50Z 82.7K followers, 75.9K engagements
"Its in trumps best interest to cause as much uncertainty as possible to bid up bond yields and dollar as high as possible before he begins his term to both use it as a negotiation tool and provide major tailwinds for assets under his presidency"
X Link 2025-01-08T16:39Z 82.7K followers, 190.7K engagements
"Oh. Oh. My are you guys excited for the new [--] month range https://t.co/ImApGlHWYl are you guys excited for the new [--] month range https://t.co/ImApGlHWYl"
X Link 2025-01-09T03:33Z 82.7K followers, 146.8K engagements
"Just put the supplements in the bag brother The best traders I know are shorting as much Solana as they possibly can at $230 The best traders I know are shorting as much Solana as they possibly can at $230"
X Link 2025-01-19T02:23Z 82.7K followers, 66.9K engagements
"When youre stuck in doxd wallet with size in coins you cheerlead your only real move you can make is to bull post everyday forever The Bull Market hasn't even begun. Yes I am serious. The Bull Market hasn't even begun. Yes I am serious"
X Link 2025-02-06T15:45Z 82.7K followers, 87.5K engagements
"TRUMP TARIFFS WILL HAVE DELAY MAY START APRIL 1: CNBC TRUMP TARIFFS WILL HAVE DELAY MAY START APRIL 1: CNBC"
X Link 2025-02-13T15:15Z 82.7K followers, 241.6K engagements
"Never seen this style of sentiment on here before of people saying theyre done with everything except for bitcoin. Fascinating situation going on"
X Link 2025-02-15T19:27Z 82.7K followers, 244.5K engagements
"10000 hours just to get here"
X Link 2025-02-25T22:55Z 82.7K followers, 312K engagements
"Very specifically doesnt mention being an LP in crypto funds Correct. I sold all my cryptocurrency (including BTC ETH and SOL) prior to the start of the administration. Correct. I sold all my cryptocurrency (including BTC ETH and SOL) prior to the start of the administration"
X Link 2025-03-03T03:35Z 82.7K followers, 119.7K engagements
"@Matt_Hougan Its the biggest story in macro right now and only crypto people are talking about it"
X Link 2025-03-21T14:39Z 82.7K followers, 79.3K engagements
"good luck to the Fed on trying to figure out wtf to do in this situation lol"
X Link 2025-04-02T21:21Z 82.7K followers, 84.4K engagements
"Journalist: "why was canada and mexico excluded from this" Bessent: "I don't know" ok So Bessent is totally in the dark on all of this it kinda seems So Bessent is totally in the dark on all of this it kinda seems"
X Link 2025-04-02T21:37Z 82.7K followers, 160.4K engagements
"fully filled on everything its fucking time"
X Link 2025-04-04T18:05Z 82.7K followers, 152.3K engagements
"Arent they supposed to be permanent LUTNICK: TARIFFS GOING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR DAYS AND WEEKS -CBS NEWS LUTNICK: TARIFFS GOING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR DAYS AND WEEKS -CBS NEWS"
X Link 2025-04-06T14:49Z 82.7K followers, 111K engagements
"The Bill Ackman crash out is a very important sequence in bear market lore Real ones know this"
X Link 2025-04-07T03:36Z 82.7K followers, 1.1M engagements
"The other side of this mess will be glorious Lock in CHINA DISCUSSES FRONTLOADING STIMULUS TO COUNTER TARIFF HIT CHINA DISCUSSES FRONTLOADING STIMULUS TO COUNTER TARIFF HIT"
X Link 2025-04-07T05:29Z 82.7K followers, 89.7K engagements
"How many dimensions of chess are we at now"
X Link 2025-04-09T01:00Z 82.7K followers, 108K engagements
"Shit is hitting the fucken fan"
X Link 2025-04-09T03:48Z 82.7K followers, 192.1K engagements
"Kinda terrifying tbh"
X Link 2025-04-22T03:28Z 82.7K followers, 302.2K engagements
"Elon leaving DOGE fiscal deficits tracking to new highs Trump walking back firing Powell Trump walking back tariffs Nothing stops this train"
X Link 2025-04-22T21:48Z 82.7K followers, 46.5K engagements
"Its crazy how you can just overlay M2 on any chart and if it goes up you long and can outperform the smartest pod shop hedge funds filled with phd traders and the market will not frontrun that ever and let you in"
X Link 2025-04-26T23:17Z 82.7K followers, 298.9K engagements
"Yes well done Chamath Oh my god All the protests and virtue signaling worked Oh my god All the protests and virtue signaling worked"
X Link 2025-05-05T22:26Z 82.7K followers, 513.7K engagements
"Apparently the chillhouse dev was front row at the Forward Guidance roundup at Permissionless and I need think about the implications of this"
X Link 2025-06-27T02:05Z 82.6K followers, 45.3K engagements
"@QuintenFrancois nevermind just realized you're forbes [--] under [--] my mistake king"
X Link 2025-07-02T17:43Z 82.7K followers, 22.6K engagements
"Hello Mr Vance PPI doesnt include imports Hope this helps It's almost like the economics profession doesn't fully understand tariffs It's almost like the economics profession doesn't fully understand tariffs"
X Link 2025-07-16T13:36Z 82.7K followers, 251.4K engagements
"Hes gonna fire Powell to distract from Epstein isnt he"
X Link 2025-07-16T15:11Z 82.7K followers, 77.4K engagements
"These are my quants"
X Link 2025-07-24T20:12Z 82.7K followers, 151K engagements
"Out now Chatting with @MacroAlf 🎙NEW POD: Trumps Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before [----] Surge We Discuss: 🔶 Trumps growing influence over the Fed 🔶 Impact of OBBB & tariffs on fiscal impulse 🔶 Asset allocation in a hot economy 🔶 Under-allocation to European markets @MacroAlf @fejau_inc Links Below https://t.co/O0KewVFVx8 🎙NEW POD: Trumps Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before [----] Surge We Discuss: 🔶 Trumps growing influence over the Fed 🔶 Impact of OBBB & tariffs on fiscal impulse 🔶 Asset allocation in a hot economy 🔶 Under-allocation to European markets @MacroAlf @fejau_inc Links Below"
X Link 2025-08-27T14:16Z 82.7K followers, 12.7K engagements
"Reddit is quitting their job after making $92k. Were certainly not early"
X Link 2025-10-04T23:50Z 82.7K followers, 954.6K engagements
"How do you think our newly unemployed option selling redditor is doing today Reddit is quitting their job after making $92k. Were certainly not early https://t.co/kr0P8J0BOC Reddit is quitting their job after making $92k. Were certainly not early https://t.co/kr0P8J0BOC"
X Link 2025-10-10T20:57Z 82.7K followers, 375.4K engagements
"Japanese GCR has spoken Expect a K-shaped recovery for crypto moving forward https://t.co/L6pSebe6V8 Expect a K-shaped recovery for crypto moving forward https://t.co/L6pSebe6V8"
X Link 2025-11-05T17:23Z 82.7K followers, 152.7K engagements
"@Travis_Kling thanks man"
X Link 2025-11-13T20:48Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"The feds plans for QT [---] are kryptonite for risk assets. My interview with @dampedspring is live now. An incredibly in depth conversation with unique views I dont see anywhere else rn. Link in the next tweet @ForwardGuidance"
X Link 2025-02-26T14:45Z 82.7K followers, 75K engagements
"Larry Fink went on cnbc and was like Im gonna buy all the bitcoins I can and some people that have logged onto this application everyday since [----] were like Nah Im bearish"
X Link 2024-02-28T15:28Z 82.7K followers, 51.3K engagements
"someone show me a better monthly chart in the world"
X Link 2024-10-16T02:13Z 82.7K followers, 106.1K engagements
"It's important to view the dot plots not as a future forecast of a events but a psychological tool used to try and talk the market into an outcome it wants today not in the future. Fed forced itself into cutting this week so is using a hawkish [----] FFR dot plot forecast to talk down long bond yields despite cutting today. Since January was already priced for a pause and no meeting in February the Fed has bought themselves time to allow further data to come out before they actually make a move and stop long bonds from getting too unruly at the cost of the 2yr. Can almost guarantee you 2025"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:12Z 82.7K followers, 99.8K engagements
"Just a piece of advice here for people trying to buy the dip When we see liquidations of this magnitude theres a couple of things that often happen: 1) The classic v shape reversal higher only really happens in a perp driven cascade due to high funding rates in a structurally bullish trend 2) During major wipeouts like this we typically see the main move down and then settle like 40% above wherever the bottom wick was. Then a small bounce from shorts covering and then chop around for a while 3) we then typically see a retest of that bottom wick from the initial cascade in the coming days I"
X Link 2025-02-03T03:24Z 82.7K followers, 585.6K engagements
"Berachain grift flywheel: - Launch near the top of the cycle for maximum FDV - Insta launch perps so VC's can short on perps and hedge their bags (see funding rate below rn) - Allow VC's to stake their locked Bera bags and be able to sell the bera they earn before unlock just like TIA - Throw small amount of airdrop at community to feign community vibez Gross"
X Link 2025-02-06T16:51Z 82.7K followers, 322.6K engagements
"FED MINUTES: SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS SUGGEST HALTING OR SLOWING BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION PENDING DEBT CEILING RESOLUTION There it is QT coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member has to unanimously approve these minutes this is intentional"
X Link 2025-02-19T19:05Z 82.7K followers, 257.6K engagements
"Bro is talking like he runs a paid group Youre welcome my friend Hopefully I made someones life just a little bit better. Now my advice: HOLD (i.e Long Term) Youre welcome my friend Hopefully I made someones life just a little bit better. Now my advice: HOLD (i.e Long Term)"
X Link 2025-03-03T14:34Z 82.7K followers, 124.4K engagements
"What if trump wants a growth scare/recession so that long term yields crater and he can issue century bonds to countries in exchange for security guarantees thereby refinancing all the heavy Tbill supply into lower yield 100year duration bonds and recalibrating the fiscal path"
X Link 2025-03-10T21:07Z 82.7K followers, 156.5K engagements
"Stablecoins gotta be the most genius invention of all time Money market funds where you keep the entire yield and don't have to pass it onto your holder base incredible technology"
X Link 2025-04-01T21:29Z 82.7K followers, 82.7K engagements
"So Bessent is totally in the dark on all of this it kinda seems"
X Link 2025-04-02T21:34Z 82.7K followers, 151.3K engagements
"I want to write out something I've been thinking a lot about how might Bitcoin act during a major regime shift in capital flows that it has never experienced in its life before. I think it's setting http://x.com/i/article/1912523257972228096 http://x.com/i/article/1912523257972228096"
X Link 2025-04-16T18:39Z 82.7K followers, 923.5K engagements
"Personally if I saw gold up only usd down bond yields up equities down and I was in charge of things that would scare me way more than standard recession rotation price action This is arguably worse"
X Link 2025-04-21T03:34Z 82.7K followers, 114.7K engagements
"Can we make M2 overlay charts illegal M2 exploding. The "Big Print" is here. https://t.co/ymsuxrJghF M2 exploding. The "Big Print" is here. https://t.co/ymsuxrJghF"
X Link 2025-04-26T22:58Z 82.7K followers, 198.4K engagements
"Someone knows something. Anyone got any fun theories"
X Link 2025-05-02T18:17Z 82.7K followers, 316.2K engagements
"So let me get this straight You shorted bitcoin because Moodys downgraded US debt because theyre printing so much money You shorted the thing that is made to be a hedge against that sort of thing Ok doke"
X Link 2025-05-18T14:41Z 82.7K followers, 76.5K engagements
"Bros I dont think crypto is a counter culture movement anymore US Army sponsored by Coinbase https://t.co/c3KtJNFQdQ US Army sponsored by Coinbase https://t.co/c3KtJNFQdQ"
X Link 2025-06-15T01:39Z 82.7K followers, 199.5K engagements
"the denominator is worthless gn"
X Link 2025-07-10T17:57Z 82.7K followers, 129.7K engagements
"We deserve what will be coming at the end of all this MEI PHARMA LAUNCHES $100 MILLION LITECOIN TREASURY: LITECOIN BLOG MEI PHARMA LAUNCHES $100 MILLION LITECOIN TREASURY: LITECOIN BLOG"
X Link 2025-07-18T04:15Z 82.7K followers, 192.4K engagements
"Imagine bragging about underperforming T bills For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare that the market gives you these kinds of fat pitches. https://t.co/06SheKJGLk For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare that the market gives you these"
X Link 2025-07-20T23:09Z 82.7K followers, 81.2K engagements
"All in podcast listeners this morning trying to get ISDA's so they can borrow at SOFR (4.3%) to make 2% on a basis trade"
X Link 2025-07-21T14:15Z 82.7K followers, 52.1K engagements
"I go away for a few days and we get hit with the mother of all top signals UGH It aint over until Chamath launches a new SPAC 🤭 It aint over until Chamath launches a new SPAC 🤭"
X Link 2025-08-19T05:15Z 82.7K followers, 114.5K engagements
"Once again I am here to tell you the economy is re-accelerating and the risk is inflation not recession. Thank you for your attention to this matter"
X Link 2025-08-21T13:50Z 82.7K followers, 145K engagements
"bears aren't ready for what's about to hit em in Q4"
X Link 2025-10-02T21:29Z 82.7K followers, 137.3K engagements
"Every country is pivoting to running it hot. Were gonna run as wide of deficits as possible to try and outgrow the debt. Central banks are giving up on inflation and fiscal dominance is arriving. Nominal assets will do well debasement hedges will do even better. The world of 2010-2020 is no longer. Reset your priors. Lets fucken go. JAPAN'S NIKKEI AVERAGE FUTURES TRADING ON CME UP 4.5% JAPAN'S NIKKEI AVERAGE FUTURES TRADING ON CME UP 4.5%"
X Link 2025-10-06T00:04Z 82.7K followers, 318.8K engagements
"how do i get into Trump's paid group pls help White House: US to take 10% stake in Trilogy Metals. $TMQ White House: US to take 10% stake in Trilogy Metals. $TMQ"
X Link 2025-10-06T20:50Z 82.7K followers, 786.5K engagements
"Blackrock is currently updating their portfolio recommendations and indexes because we hit the [--] year cycle peak time. Few understand this"
X Link 2025-10-23T22:39Z 82.7K followers, 144K engagements
"Shutdown ending by Friday then U.S. TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCES MANDATORY FLIGHT CUTS AT MAJOR US AIRPORTS STARTING FRIDAY U.S. TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCES MANDATORY FLIGHT CUTS AT MAJOR US AIRPORTS STARTING FRIDAY"
X Link 2025-11-05T21:17Z 82.7K followers, 181.4K engagements
"I heard Trump will be banning usage of the $2k stimmy checks for buying bitcoin because its the four year cycle top and so [----] will be bearish and Trump wanted to respect this so wont let stimmy checks pump bitcoin"
X Link 2025-11-09T15:20Z 82.7K followers, 57.1K engagements
"Okay Ill do a high level [---] of the yen carry trade situation. I dont trade fx so theres stuff in here I may not get perfect fyi but should give you the gist. In the 1990s Japan saw a major economic and market boom. Eventually a mega bubble occurred that led to a major deflationary impulse on the country. Due to demographic debt and a few other capital flow dynamics Japan had multiple decades of sluggish deflationary growth This led to Bank of Japan to run unorthodox monetary policy to try and stimulate. Bank of Japan was the first CB to bring rates negative and were the originators of QE as"
X Link 2024-08-05T20:41Z 82.7K followers, 220.3K engagements
"For the QE is coming soon dreamers I hope you just heard what powell said "QE is a tool we only use when rates are already at zero". You don't want zero rates and QE. That means a LOT of pain has to happen in the interim. QE isn't coming to save your overlevered alt bags anytime soon"
X Link 2025-02-11T16:03Z 82.7K followers, 454.8K engagements
"Going broke on theta decay to own the MAGAs"
X Link 2025-03-22T17:15Z 82.7K followers, 82.5K engagements
"Economic activity is falling off a cliff and any activity that remains the prices are going up. Absolute worst scenario for policy makers here especially with no meaningful idea of how permanent tariffs will be. Were at a phase now where even if they get removed today the economy is already scarred and will have cascading impacts regardless"
X Link 2025-04-17T14:45Z 82.7K followers, 76.4K engagements
"So gotta game out the macro implications of an assumed world where we get tariffs reverting from 30% effective tariff rates to 10% ish and where such a situation nets out the economy in that context. Heres some random thoughts and ideas Im thinking through: - A shit ton of imports have flooded into the US and major companies are juiced up in inventories - Consumers have frontloaded a lot of spending and will probably chill out now that tariffs look to be off ramping - Net exports will probably whipsaw in the opposite direction next few months and be a positive tailwind for GDP contribution as"
X Link 2025-05-11T22:30Z 82.7K followers, 259K engagements
"Reason for the huge ETH shorts is basis trade. Funds can capture an annualized basis of 9.5% by shorting the CME futures and buying ETH spot with a staking yield of 3.5% (this why its mostly ETH not BTC) for a delta neutral 13%. Thank you for your attention to this matter"
X Link 2025-07-13T18:57Z 82.7K followers, 148.9K engagements
"The ATHs in the fall felt forced because of the election so this btc price action feels like the most true price discovery since basically early [----] Feels fucking good man"
X Link 2025-07-14T05:18Z 82.7K followers, 46.6K engagements
"This is so cool. Well done And trust me if its being published it means the edge is gone lol https://t.co/oEbE6SD0hw https://t.co/oEbE6SD0hw"
X Link 2025-10-20T01:12Z 82.7K followers, 142.2K engagements
"Im excited to announce that Ive been promoted into a new role at @Blockworks_ - Head of Content There is a lot of major changes at Blockworks right now and Im a believer in the vision that @JasonYanowitz and @MikeIppolito_ have. There are many lessons learned around what content should look like for us and Im excited to lead the charge on what I believe that should look like Oh and I will still be doing the @ForwardGuidance podcast and the roundup with @qthomp and @Tyler_Neville_ dont fret :) Onwards"
X Link 2025-11-03T14:52Z 82.7K followers, 160.1K engagements
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