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@dampedspring Andy Constan
Andy Constan posts on X about coins, money, mstr, bessent the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXXXX +85%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +30%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +54%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XXX #
- X Week XXX +42%
- X Month XXX +42%
- X Months XXXXX +5.20%
- X Year XXXXX +38%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.20%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.67%
- X Months XXXXXXX +14%
- X Year XXXXXXX +24%
CreatorRank: XXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance #3026 currencies #612 cryptocurrencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% countries XXXX% exchanges XXXX% social networks XXXX%
Social topic influence coins #140, money #1725, mstr #186, bessent #2, debt #381, spx #404, tariffs #484, potus #34, if you 1.34%, currency #153
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dannydayan5 @financelady5 @bobeunlimited @stimpyz1 @trading_chaos @santiagoaufund @jllcam12 @dw3p4c @briangobosox @pietroventani @secscottbessent @sidprabhu @ces921 @grok @danielsimonyi @bijusdamodaran @blacklioncta @derivativesdon @totemmacro @mcclartyphilip
Top assets mentioned Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin (BTC) Intel Corporation (INTC) Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) Mario Coin (COIN) Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Texas Instruments (TXN)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Holy shit these guys have lost their fucking minds. algorithmic stable coin turning MSTR into a central bank NO It's an unbacked preferred share unable to be used for any sort of payment system or collateral with a floating dividend This shit makes stable coins look great"
@dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 10:41:03 UTC 172.1K followers, 41.8K engagements
"Here's my definition. Prior to election you write papers and make speeches that appear to be deeply held beliefs about right and wrong. Specifically you attack Yellen for manipulating bond markets. Then when you are in the seat you manipulate bond markets cuz potus says so. That's a bootlicker. Also fuck off this wasn't political you maga fuck" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 11:52:04 UTC 172.2K followers, 1599 engagements
"@mikevitel I care. I'm not looking to maximize my cumulative total Return over the long term. I care about risk adjusted return over the long term and have a conservative risk target" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 18:24:51 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"@SvobodaJeff @yaacov @HyperbolicDisco Dale Horowitz for the win. The nicest guy and one of the luckiest on 9/11" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 19:53:20 UTC 171.9K followers, XXX engagements
"I have my views but what do you plumbers think about bills markets Can they be oversupplied particularly with RRP going to zero What do you think happens to money markets repo SRF reserves and USD in a substantially oversupplied bills market" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 17:35:35 UTC 172.2K followers, 19.4K engagements
"$MSTR Strategy Announces Pricing of STRC Perpetual Preferred Stock Some things to notice. Stated value is $XXX per share Initial dividend is X% of stated value or $X Offering price was $XX leading to an initial dividend yield of 10%. What is fascinating is the discretionary commitment to maintain a price of the stated value of $XXX per share by managing the dividend. If you believe this the $XX offering price should rapidly rise to $XXX or the dividend will need to be increased to $XX dollars immediately or some of each. That begs the question of WHY would MSTR offer a security at $XX and" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 12:23:22 UTC 172.2K followers, 20.3K engagements
"@financeguyjim No position. Don't trade single names. Like short MSTR long BTC though" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 11:56:23 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"@lel718 Meh. She wasn't politically biased and it showed many many times" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 12:10:13 UTC 172.2K followers, 1009 engagements
"1. Maintain stable nominal value ($100). Literally no guarantee of this X. Deliver adjustable yield mimicking central bank rate targeting. It's floored at SOFR (IF Paid at ALL which is voluntary). X. Be backed by Bitcoin reserves (via MSTR's balance sheet). Unlike Stable coins It's "Backing" is a promise not collateralized if you don't know the difference there is no helping you at all X. Allow daily liquidity and redemption. Maybe but the bid offer spread may be very high and biased to when people want to redeem or subscribe unlike stable coins or MMF's X. Operate outside fiat monetary" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 11:36:27 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"There are only three other general cases to consider and they get more complicated. X. Currency in Circulation (Paper Bills and coinage CIC) is used to buy stable coins X. Bank Deposits are used to buy stable coins X. Stable coin buyer takes out a bank loan to get the USD" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:22 UTC 172.2K followers, 4186 engagements
"He didn't mean "monetary policy review". Lol of course he did" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 22:16:24 UTC 172.1K followers, 22.4K engagements
"CIC is most compelling for AUM growth of stable coins AND it creates legitimate NET demand for Tbills. Current CIC is 2.4TN and roughly half is abroad. That's a pretty big TAM for Stable coin growth. I like to call CIC Benjamins and find them fascinating" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:24 UTC 172.2K followers, 4152 engagements
"@bbarth62 Honestly he has done nothing imho to address shit. NO doge No budgetary restraint leading to higher deficits. NO action on debt. Bootlicking on Fed attacks playing the "good cop". And now we find out if he is a hypocrite on ATI" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 12:24:16 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Daily price swings next week are expected to be XXX SPX points and for the week XXX SPX points" @dampedspring on X 2025-04-05 12:11:23 UTC 172K followers, 70.5K engagements
"@yaacov @HyperbolicDisco DART's were 1986" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 19:06:58 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"Russia Venezuela China Argentina Mexico The grey market varies but is all higher than the U.S. This premium is paid throughout the world because USD savings in any form is attractive and the gray market price sets it dependent on the jurisdiction" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:27 UTC 172.2K followers, 3140 engagements
"Decrease every federal expenditure made no matter what it is (besides interest) by X% Increase every tax or government revenue by X% regardless of who pays that will reduced debt costs by at least 12bp and reduce interest costs by X% Net 7*-.03 - 5*.03=360BN of budget deficit cut Yes Warren and Ray did this math but who wouldn't vote for this" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 14:14:35 UTC 172.2K followers, 32K engagements
"Our next Fed chair folks. And you aren't long SFRZ5" @dampedspring on X 2025-06-20 12:37:17 UTC 172.1K followers, 57.9K engagements
"$INTC still a value trap unfortunately. Maybe one day but not soon" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 21:27:53 UTC 172.2K followers, 19.3K engagements
"Do the private equity buyers of homes structure the purchases such that if capital tax gains on homes would be eliminated for them too 🧐" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 21:13:04 UTC 172K followers, 13.9K engagements
"The bank deleverages immediately and sells assets Stable coin AUM up Bessent brags. Bank asset down Asset net demand unchanged. Bessent ignores If the bank stays permanently leveraged or allows leverage to revert over time the banks ability to print money for other loan" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:30 UTC 172.2K followers, 3215 engagements
"@BlacklionCTA @DannyDayan5 @DavidBeckworth This is too big picture stuff for me for alpha trading The simply beta shift is to own more gold (BTC if your bag) less USD assets and almost no nominal bonds. I've made those shifts many many months ago" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 11:42:27 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@DerivativesDon @LukeGromen Amen. Worth understanding. 435BN of leverage cost inelastic demand and growing leaves a mark" @dampedspring on X 2025-03-28 09:06:50 UTC 172.1K followers, 3385 engagements
"There is no "Maturity Wall" XXX. Though this is a myth you may not be relieved by this thread. Have you seen the doomer charts about the maturity wall of US Debt. It is a clear signal that you should unfollow those who post it. It usually starts with 9TN of debt comes due" @dampedspring on X 2025-05-17 22:39:17 UTC 172.2K followers, 188.6K engagements
"There has only been one macro trade this year that matters. Everything else has been choppy" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 10:33:13 UTC 172K followers, 20.4K engagements
"demand is constrained reducing future demand for assets. So bank deposits moving to stable coins results in either NO immediate new demand for USD assets or a reduction in future demand. The last case is a person takes out a bank loan to buy at stable coin. Let's start by" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:31 UTC 172.2K followers, 3155 engagements
"@MonitorHive How do you know this Is there a Real proposal. Thought Trump just blurted it out" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 22:20:39 UTC 171.9K followers, XXX engagements
"I have this beta portfolio I call DS Protect. (Currently it's a XX% allocation in my beta portfolio). It's XXX% allocated in three things which reliably protect purchasing power in a debasement environment. On 7/30 we will out if the next leg of debasement happens. But fwiw this portfolio has massively priced in debasement already. (1/3 gold 1/3 spy and 1/3 TIP (for stagflation))" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 17:50:32 UTC 172.2K followers, 20.5K engagements
"Of this basic case are similar the concept is USD is raised by selling an asset of any kind and USD is spent on stable coin. Stable coin AUM up Bessent brags. MMF AUM down Asset net demand unchanged. Bessent ignores" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:21 UTC 172.2K followers, 4327 engagements
"I'm going to deal with the market share of stable coins later but right now I want to focus on what matters for the economy and Marco investing which is whether stable coins create demand for US Tbills or not. Firstly the highest level concept. Every new Minted stable coin" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:12 UTC 172.2K followers, 5678 engagements
"@Citrini7 @maths_fan_2022 Yep. Total surprise to everyone including me. Q3 issuance grew from XXX -1003 BN. Q4 was estimated to be 550Bn it came in at XXX BN. Q4 bond issuance was expected to grow by 50BN over 178BN in Q3. I was at 100BN it came in at 160BN" @dampedspring on X 2023-08-27 23:30:28 UTC 171.9K followers, 2736 engagements
"My quant. Comparing one investment vs another while penalizing one for carry and not the other" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 13:11:03 UTC 172.2K followers, 101.8K engagements
"@SmartDumbMan Secondary market activity is irrelevant to net Tbill demand. But is relevant to other things. I'm just focused on minting because only that creates demand "new" demand for bills" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 14:02:17 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Math of above USD Consumer price of imports = USD tariffs + USD importer markup + USD Exporter price If Consumer and importer don't pay tariffs Change in USD Tariffs must be paid by change in USD exporter price USD Exporter price change is local currency export price change * currency change. If USD is falling (it has) local currency export price must fall even more to "absorb the tariff". It's not falling at all" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-18 12:20:27 UTC 172K followers, 4478 engagements
"SPX is not richest of all time. Was "richer" for all of the 90's. But its pretty rich and pretty bad deal vs Nominal bonds (and i dont like nominal bonds). Its p/e is XX% of Bubble peak. What't noticible is earnings yields are very very low" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 23:31:41 UTC 172.2K followers, 44.4K engagements
"@RickOptions I'm about to get Medicare and social security and would vote for it" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 14:31:42 UTC 172K followers, 1470 engagements
"@clownoak @DanielSimonyi Are there any RTY 3000 companies with zero revenues with market caps of 5BN" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-18 17:39:14 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"My neutral allocation to equities is XX% with commodities at 10%. My max leverage for the portfolio is XXX% and my asset variance from benchmark is XX% IF i was both max levered and max overwight equities it would be 251.51.3=48.75%. US allocation has been XXX% until inauguration and i rebalance "Get Out" to 50/50 today" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 17:58:04 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"This one is probably true again fwiw. Andy on the other hand doesn't care much until QRA" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-11 18:06:37 UTC 172K followers, 28.9K engagements
"No position. Honestly it's an okay business. Collect X% NIM with no risk. I believe AUM of stable coins will grow driven by those with Benjamin's in emerging markets who don't want to store paper currency. Also I'm okay with a market share stealing payment system alternative for PayPal Venmo Zelle MMF and Bank Checking and ACH. Don't know what it's priced for cuz not my lane" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 13:28:59 UTC 172K followers, 1231 engagements
"Genius Act compliant Stable coins XXX a legitimate threat to established players in the transaction space NOT a way to grow NET demand for USD or USD assets much. People are unwilling to break down how money works and would rather kluge together lots of concepts in one 🧵 1/2" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:03 UTC 172.2K followers, 86.8K engagements
"How do you work for this nutso egotist @SecScottBessent" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-20 21:26:45 UTC 172K followers, 59.4K engagements
"Literally the only conclusion that one can draw from this whole nonsense is @chamath Paper traded this. There is no way that he had this trade and didnt take profits. SO HE DIDN'T HAVE THE TRADE" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 15:16:10 UTC 172.2K followers, 34.8K engagements
"A few retail trading platforms reporting outages" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-11 13:45:01 UTC 172.2K followers, 169.8K engagements
"@FedGuy12 SLR reform doesn't do shit. Banks have done and always will do ride the curve when it's worth riding and typically overstay their welcome. Today carry sucks and banks don't give a crap" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 13:34:14 UTC 172K followers, 4452 engagements
"Ignoring what's priced in to equities. Bullish drivers going forward are: Fiscal deficit expansion vs currently legislated NOT due to a recession Tariffs unable to be implemented legally Activist Treasury Issuance/Treasury buybacks suppressing long term risk premiums Deregulation more than expected Immigration restrictions relaxed vs today Path of interest rates steeper cuts and lower terminal than expected but also steeper and lower than necessary. Reserve balances kept abundant. SOMA balance sheet continuing to increase WAM through reinvestment policy Bank deregulation more than expected." @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 09:31:04 UTC 172.2K followers, 39.7K engagements
"Commercial paper was a huge market back in the day. It feasted on MMF's who promised to not break the buck. Betting big on a single companies CP was how these funds got in trouble. Now retail can buy CP from one company. This CP should be called PP. Ponzi Paper" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 09:55:03 UTC 172.2K followers, 14.5K engagements
"@ChrisCarey57 Personally no. But this ETF is decent" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 00:05:12 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"After tax it's only half of that also it's really only 100BN after tax" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-15 14:11:13 UTC 172K followers, 25K engagements
"Demetri please keep to a simple point. I have no interest whatsoever in non genius act compliant stables or unbanked or partially backed stables. I also have no interest whatsoever in secondary market trading of stable coins of any sort. I have interest in a single topic which I wrote about in the thread and that's minting stable coins transactions for genius act compliant fully backed stables only coins. As it relates to that point a Turkish local currency flow that results in a minting of a stable coin also MUST result in an FX transaction to provide the Turk with USD. The provider of USD" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 21:21:53 UTC 172.2K followers, 1326 engagements
"I am realistic about the political difficulties in doing anything I was highly critical of any concept of DOGE cutting 2TN of "waste fraud and abuse" because it doesn't exist. I expected 100BN of cuts doable via recission and they undershot at 9BN. I am highly supportive of raising taxes and cutting expenditures and also believe no elected official would do both" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 13:45:59 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"New demand for Tbills. IMHO CIC will exist in huge scale for a decade or more and out of the 2.4TN of which 1.2Tn is overseas as a complete guess I would expect XX% to go to stable coins over the next X years or 24BN of "New demand" for Tbills. In other words hardly any" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:28 UTC 172.2K followers, 3063 engagements
"BUT the market price exists already. Stable coins threaten the gray market premium globally but not the supply and demand. Anyway the point is if one wants to buy a stable coin and sacrifice the gray market premium the end result for the US is less CIC and more Tbills. It's legit" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:28 UTC 172.2K followers, 3977 engagements
"Nature of our payment system today which handles extraordinary volumes today just fine perhaps stable coins can be better. Of course a money market mutual fund pays X% interest and a stable coin pays zero but I guess the convenience may be worth it. So the guy redeems his MMF" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:19 UTC 172.2K followers, 4532 engagements
"@EdwardBens51817 They are good. They may get worse but may get better" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 11:32:54 UTC 172K followers, 1586 engagements
"@BobEUnlimited @SteveMiran @CEA47 @POTUS @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent Yeah you know I mostly agree but again it's a decent first step and inline with what I expected pre inauguration. Reducing US consumption is a good move imho" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 12:39:10 UTC 172.2K followers, 9298 engagements
"Bringing back an oldie. Because stocks NEED inflation. Trolls assemble" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-15 12:36:17 UTC 172K followers, 74.8K engagements
"A few charts which offset the idea of rampant speculation in equities" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-20 21:32:03 UTC 172K followers, 19.3K engagements
"@kittiecougar99 Both returns should be calculated as total return on cash invested No opportunity cost is necessary. Alternatively one can also calculate both returns as excess return over return on cash. He seems to do the first one for SPX and the second one for gold which is dopey" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 13:21:34 UTC 172K followers, 2697 engagements
"If you knew for certain that the U.S. equity market is not in a bubble and not inflating like a bubble would you be" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-18 19:38:27 UTC 172K followers, 23.6K engagements
"As a genius act compliant fully backed stable coin doesn't legally pay interest. Coinbase paying you "interest" is paid by $COIN share holders and/or $CRCL shareholders if CRCL gives Coin a kickback. It's not interest it's profit sharing" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 21:39:25 UTC 172.2K followers, 17.5K engagements
"@TotemMacro Not cut taxes cut more expenditures help the Fed control inflation Return coupon/bills issuance to a non crisis ratio You know. Make even a modest effort at achieving 3/3/3" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 13:14:17 UTC 172K followers, 1234 engagements
"Did you know that Benjamin's are worth more than digital currency In emerging markets if you pay for stuff in Benjamin's you get more for your money than converting those Benjamin's at the official rate and spending the local currency" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:25 UTC 172.2K followers, 3334 engagements
"There are a handful of you out there who really understand monetary plumbing. Can one of you please explain where the fresh USD comes from to fill this demand. Not bank deposits or money market funds obviously because that isn't fresh. As far as I can figure it's only physical currency (Benjamins). But would love to be proven wrong" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-03 18:15:17 UTC 172K followers, 427.2K engagements
"Do they mint their own genius act compliant stable coin. It appears not. Do they pay "interest" on people stable coins minted by third parties. Yes that is a common incentive to build AUM on a "brokerage or exchange platform". Is some of the margin from Minters minting zero interest stable coins and stealing the interest paid as marketing incentives to brokers like aave yes this is common. BUT the actual stable coin does not get nor is entitled to get interest" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 14:48:28 UTC 172.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@BlacklionCTA @ScottSkyrm Unchanged over the last XX months despite 770BN in SOMA runoff and 80BN of BTFP repayments. Zero chance the runoff ends is announced in next two meetings" @dampedspring on X 2024-10-04 12:00:15 UTC 172K followers, 3477 engagements
"@ThePauper1 Very reasonable take. Callable at XXX% of IPO price sort of caps that" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 18:50:13 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"HOWEVER if people are stupid and borrow money to buy stable coins then YES that will increase TBill demand as new money is created by the bank offering the loan. The purpose of this thread was to address stable coin growth as a cause of new net demand for US Tbills. I suspect the total NEW demand for the next decade is at most $250BN. However if I get around to the second half of this thread Stable coin AUM growth could be dramatically higher based exclusively on its potentially favorable attributes as a payment system. BUT the new demand for Tbills is NOT a market share thing" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:35 UTC 172.2K followers, 14.2K engagements
"@ThematicMarkets Of the 2.4TN of CIC where will that be in XX years and at what rate will it fall" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 13:55:51 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"9% cost of cash for MSTR Obviously these guys will cut the dividend of this nonsense fast to as little over SOFR as they can pay. Investors get a super junior preferred with NO exposure to BTC or MSTR upside Investors who buy this shit are even more nuts than any other part of the cap structure $MSTR" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 21:51:05 UTC 172.1K followers, 21.8K engagements
"If tariffs as currently imposed were deemed illegal AND all "trade deals" needed (and couldn't get XX votes) to approve firstly I assume Trump would demand filibuster nuclear option. But assuming not an all illegal and unapproved tariffs paid to date were repaid and no future deficit offsetting tariffs were collected what would bonds do" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 16:13:09 UTC 172.2K followers, 13.2K engagements
"Many goals for me. Beard obvi and perspective in life as well. Interesting AI take. #TikTok" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 11:44:54 UTC 172.2K followers, 11.6K engagements
"This combined portfolio of alpha and beta reflects my strong view that most of one's assets should be diversified across assets countries and currencies and mostly left alone. It's moderately heavy in cash which reflects my outlook for long term expected value in assets being somewhat unfavorable today the cash is held in both USD and some ROW currencies I have very modest short term bets reflecting high uncertainty of outlook particularly ahead of a consequential week next week. It is short equities but risks X% of my AUM This portfolio isn't sexy. It Isn't trying to win the Furu" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 17:21:44 UTC 172.2K followers, 33K engagements
"@HayekAndKeynes Every Fed chair since Volcker has had a dovish bias and been politically aligned with the party in charge during crisis because inflation was always transitory" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 11:50:23 UTC 172K followers, 2511 engagements
"The "well id like him to lower interest rates" back slap and smiles all around was funny" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 20:15:58 UTC 172.2K followers, 36.6K engagements
"@chamath at 5x leveraged and 50bp financing spread you made X% and a .25Sharpe. Crappy crappy trade. The peak was sweet at XX% return (should have bragged then dude) cuz you gave back XX% of your return" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 14:53:26 UTC 172.2K followers, 67.9K engagements
"I'm saying a 60/40 would have to be delevered (hold cash) to achieve my risk target Pick your risk target once you do the leverage of various choices falls from that More simply an unlevered Mag X portfolio is riskier than an unlevered SPX portfolio. If your risk profile is willing to be XXX% invested in SPX it cannot be long XXX% of MAG7" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 17:49:24 UTC 172K followers, XXX engagements
"requires the stable coins buyer to surrender a USD. Prior to that exchange the USD was most likely already existing USD. The USD must ask itself "How did I get here"" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:15 UTC 172.2K followers, 17.5K engagements
"Wordle 1500 5/6* 🟩🟨 🟩🟨 🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 10:53:10 UTC 172.2K followers, 10.9K engagements
"@DannyDayan5 @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox Wow. We are on completely different pages if 2025 is as easy as 2021. Easy compared April 2025 sure but nowhere near as Easy as 2020 2021 November 2022 post SVB or Halloween 2023" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-20 19:34:05 UTC 172K followers, 2133 engagements
"The premium buying power Benjamin's have for good I encourage you to look at particular grey market for Benjamin's in EM or even in the U.S. when considering how attractive using Benjamin's to buy stable coins will be. In the U.S. Benjamin's are worth 1-3% more than digital USD" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:26 UTC 172.2K followers, 3257 engagements
"Societies which artificially set short term interest rates low use YCC to set long term interest rates institute price controls on goods and services institute capital controls on investors or more broadly centrally plan the society are:" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-18 11:08:04 UTC 172K followers, 26.4K engagements
"@AahanPrometheus Prometheus is highly correlated to equities" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 12:36:40 UTC 172.1K followers, 1161 engagements
"Has the "Run it hot" narrative peaked. My vote not surprisingly is yes" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 11:48:39 UTC 172.2K followers, 32K engagements
"@gmantennis1 @SteveMiran @CEA47 @POTUS @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent Sure. Crushing spot money and future money is the consequence of all this irresponsible pumping policy" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 14:05:11 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"another day when my large gold allocation feels too small" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 14:23:48 UTC 172K followers, 28.6K engagements
"Worst take ever. None of the short list would mollify markets if Powell is forced out. To be clear if he resigns he was forced out. Mohamed and I are old colleagues but this one is a bad take. Being a martyr and resigning for the moral and ethical cause would backfire. Perhaps the X left leaning Supreme Court justices should resign or all the Trump opposition. Or all institutions threatened by this administration. Nonsense" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 11:28:01 UTC 172.2K followers, 77K engagements
"Fwiw I like the trade outcome. Honestly pretty great job. It has macro economic consequences which are not what you are being told about by @SteveMiran @CEA47 @POTUS @howardlutnick and @SecScottBessent But that's to be expected. Gaslighting is bipartisan. But the trade outcome is about what I expected in January and is a good effort to reshape global trade" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 12:04:20 UTC 172.2K followers, 31.1K engagements
"@Anarcho_Invest You didn't read the thread at all did you. I literally said it would" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 20:07:33 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Even in the U.S. people charge less (the Benjamin's are more valuable) if you pay cash money instead of other forms of money. Curious right So when someone with Benjamin's buys a stable coin they convert them from CIC to electronic money at the official rate. And sacrifice" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:26 UTC 172.2K followers, 3271 engagements
"@lord_fed Dude you are obsessed with me. It's a nice compliment but yikes" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 15:44:56 UTC 172K followers, 6701 engagements
"Fwiw roughly 24TN of the national debt held by public or XX% of total doesn't mature in the next year and won't for many years. It carries an interest rate of roughly X% so the absolute low the interest on our debt could "cost" is 720BN per year. IF bills went to zero interest that would save 6TN*.0425= 225BN. His math is utter nonsense" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 16:44:42 UTC 172K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Janet wasn't a bootlicker. Because Biden was incompetent. To be a bootlicker you have to lick boots. Biden wore slippers and barely made a single coherent economic statement. Janet was deep state" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 11:58:20 UTC 172.2K followers, 39.2K engagements
"Saying this is just stupid. Borrowing money for an asset that appreciates or pays interest is one thing. Gold BTC don't pay interest but they can appreciate. Stocks and bonds can appreciate and may pay interest and dividends but a stable coin can't appreciate nor pays interest" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:34 UTC 172.2K followers, 14.3K engagements
"@ces921 @kofinas Same way cash is destroyed anywhere. It's shipped to the U.S. in a vault and exchanged for bank reserves by the Fed" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 22:02:22 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@fejau_inc What's the tic toc on the X day recovery" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 00:56:26 UTC 171.9K followers, 3221 engagements
"In a pure Bitcoin world with no fiat. What is the interest rate one would pay in order to borrow BTC Please for the love of god don't tell me the USD rate. This question is for POST USD borrowing and lending" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-19 19:50:01 UTC 172.2K followers, 158.6K engagements
"Since 4/9 taco dinner every single "surprise" has been more taco's. I for one look at the tariffs levels and say yeah about as expected. Like literally how I wrote down my expectations in January So today what are the positive surprises left Ending tariffs Is that what's next" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 11:45:44 UTC 172.2K followers, 16.5K engagements
"2018 tariff economic consequences are all the administration is using to "prove" that ROW pays the tariffs and U.S. sees positive growth and disinflation. We make fun of M2/NDX charts but this leaning on a single n is the least rigourous economic work I've seen in my career" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 12:55:52 UTC 172.2K followers, 10.9K engagements
"And buys a stable coin. The MMF fund manager sells some of his Tbills to meet these redemption AND the Stable coin MINTER buys exactly the same quantity of Tbills. Stable coin AUM up Bessent brags. MMF AUM down TBill net demand unchanged. Bessent ignores Lots of cases" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:20 UTC 172.2K followers, 4489 engagements
"mutual fund and find it inconvenient to redeem it and write a check or transfer it to bank deposit and then write a check or send an ach or Zelle for their payments for whatever normal payments and purchase they make or for purchasing on chain assets. Despite the relatively fast" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:18 UTC 172.2K followers, 4686 engagements
"@charlesamadeus YES. For almost all non Ponzi companies they can fund in the debt /bank loan/ converts/ and equity markets and NOT pay XX% cost of issuance plus underwriting spread plus a recurring XX% dividend yield" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 13:03:18 UTC 171.9K followers, XXX engagements
"My biggest mistake over the next year will not be whether Trump and bessent manipulate markets to prevent crashes they will just like everyone before them. It will be thinking they won't pump when things are good and will Pump when things are bad. In other words why pump when things are good I don't get it" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 11:17:15 UTC 172K followers, 28.2K engagements
"@fejau_inc Who's the other dude talking He seems to not understand risk and reward and portfolio diversification AT ALL Really really detracts from you and @agnostoxxx . He says stuff and both of you to pause and change the subject Awful" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-19 17:10:51 UTC 172K followers, 9310 engagements
"@MasonFoard Except it requires selling in the market and waiting for settlement to get your cash AND it's backed by nothing at all and not FDIC guaranteed. Plus the X% can be cut for no reason at all" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 21:40:59 UTC 172K followers, 1727 engagements
"GDP Now is XXX% and falling for Q2 GDP for Q1 was -XXX% Current "average" is XXXX% What is real GDP for the whole year going to be" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-19 11:53:34 UTC 172K followers, 14.3K engagements
"@Camroth88 It's complex. Lots of issues. Perhaps the biggest is the aggressive bear steepening and USD rally (gold BTC crush) that would occur. Equities would be where the fireworks would be" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 16:35:43 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Welp at least you got your dividend yield on $TXN this year" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 21:23:22 UTC 172.1K followers, 16.9K engagements
"On @CNBCFastMoney to talk about the trial balloon today and the upcoming QRA. Will it be two cans of gasoline that could ignite markets or will Trump fiscal policy (tariffs) throw cold water on the economy and markets. Tune in --at 5:30PM (I may get bumped for an earning season announcement tho) @MelissaLeeCNBC @karenfinerman" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-16 18:18:39 UTC 172K followers, 14.6K engagements
"When you leave a cash balance in your PayPal/Stripe or Venmo account did you know you have effectively allowed them to mint a stable coin that is less backed than tether and not genius act compliant Did you know that when you buy something on a credit card and pay the balance each month the credit card company allows YOU to mint a stable coin for a month with the promise you would redeem it in a month" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 11:08:07 UTC 172.2K followers, 28.9K engagements
"Did you know that genius act compliant stable coins are a threat to a variety of ways people hold USD globally but mostly in a price and convenience and market share sense and NOT in a creation of new demand for USD assets sense" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 11:16:34 UTC 172.2K followers, 19.6K engagements
"463 up from XX in current quarter XXX BN for Q3 1284 BN total Fed purchase XXX Net gap 564BN" @dampedspring on X 2021-05-03 19:10:49 UTC 172K followers, XX engagements
"Stocks can be shorted if the market is not a bubble. Stocks can not be shorted if the market is in a bubble. Thanks for your attention to this matter" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-20 21:54:53 UTC 172.1K followers, 63.3K engagements
"I was asked just now by a client if alpha was easier XX years ago. I responded that the internet didn't exist. So yeah. Somewhat easier" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 18:12:38 UTC 172K followers, 27.9K engagements
"I don't what it is but I've never had a good conversation about markets with anyone who mentions the "Eurodollar Market" in the first tweet response or OP. Why is that" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-03 23:43:14 UTC 172K followers, 28.2K engagements
"Update on septic system. Absorption field was buried with no access as plans showed. Dug out pumped X by X cast "tank" aerated the sand at bottom raised collar new manhole at grade of slate. Loose slate cover to be installed" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-17 15:44:15 UTC 172K followers, 20.8K engagements
"Current DS Beta and DS alpha positioning. $XXX invested In beta as shown. Alpha positioning is recently acquired puts on SPX and NDX worth $X a long August Vix futures short Sept vix futures spread at a XXXX credit long SFRM6 futures risking $X for every 25bp change and 50c spent on an OTM SPX put butterfly for 9/30 expiry" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 17:09:04 UTC 172.2K followers, 50.9K engagements
"@RealJimChanos I was told MSTR was going to reinvent the fixed income markets and access Trillions of financing" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 13:07:12 UTC 172K followers, 4510 engagements
"@kofinas Because they have to buy the USD to give to the stable coin minter. The person who had the USD before the currency trade is selling a USD instrument and the stable coin is buying it" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 20:10:14 UTC 172.2K followers, 2478 engagements
"It's nonsense. Stable coins AUM growth is called minting. A person hands USD to the sponsor who hands them back a stable coin and the sponsor then takes the the USD and buys T bills. So there is demand for tea bills in that process. But what is missing is where the USD came from. It can come from four sources. One bank deposits. Two the sale of assets which to keep it simple will just say is money market funds. Three borrowing from a bank who prints the money. For physical currency in circulation paper bills and coinage. In case one a bank now has less deposits and may have to D deliver its" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 23:10:24 UTC 172.1K followers, 2037 engagements
"@charlesamadeus Huh Each new issue pays the same Discount or more" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-25 13:16:10 UTC 171.9K followers, XXX engagements
"ROW Assets and even just stocks continue to outperform US Assets and stocks in USD "Get Out" Theme still playing out. More to go" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 21:03:31 UTC 172.1K followers, 14.4K engagements
"It's nonsense. New demand for T bills if it is new comes from four sources regardless of where the buying is coming from we are talking about an increase in aum of the stable coin which is called minting and requires a deposit of US dollars that money can only come from four sources source one is a bank deposit source to is selling an asset or to keep it simple of money market mutual fund source three is borrowing from a bank who prints the money source for is currency and circulation meaning paper bills paper currency bills coinage etc. with those sources you can mint a stable coin and that" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-26 22:56:39 UTC 171.9K followers, XX engagements
"By Wednesday we learn if Scott Bessent is a guy with an understanding of global macro economic forces or a bootlicker Markets expect Bootlicking. They are probably right" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 11:34:15 UTC 172.2K followers, 215.6K engagements
"@Lojo7272 Sure they do. But they also just increased the amount of bonds they will sell by almost double from 178BN to XXX BN. The model of for understanding" @dampedspring on X 2023-08-30 22:14:43 UTC 171.9K followers, 2017 engagements
"When a U.S. commercial bank decides it has too much vault cash (paper bills and coinage) vs its needs it gets rid of it by offering it to those without adequate vault cash in exchange for bank reserves. But more simply it sends it to its local central bank who lights it on fire or melts it down if no other commercial bank wants it. CIC unfit for circulation is also burned or melted down but in that case either fresh CIC is printed or reserves are provided depending on the need of the submitter of unfit cash" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 22:15:42 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"84 Year old mom health insurance up XX% today" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-15 20:28:20 UTC 172K followers, 52.6K engagements
"Odds of an ATI Pump have fallen. Hopefully @SecScottBessent pushes back against potus" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-28 19:24:19 UTC 172.2K followers, 18.9K engagements
"Stable coins that eat the world will be XXX% or more backed with USDTbills USD reserves and repo on USD Govies They are senior secured designed to never break the buck and fully backed. Oh they are on chain too. $MSTR $STRC is junior entirely unsecured with a "trust me" rule to protect the buck with a dividend that can be deffered in perpetuity. Oh also can't be levered much and is NOT on chain" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-22 11:21:10 UTC 172K followers, 30.8K engagements
"I agree this is both possible and sensible if done the way you say with a required reserve and zero interest. It's roughly 130BN of annual interest which is mostly retained by the bank shareholders paid by the taxpayer and U.S. government debt holder. It reduces ROA currently by 50bp and probably earnings by 500bp which costs banks roughly 1/3 of their market cap. But makes sense to me" @dampedspring on X 2025-06-05 18:32:05 UTC 172K followers, 1339 engagements
"Fooling around with various bubble metrics. This chart that @DanielSimonyi from DSDATA built doesn't see much of a bubble at all. I don't like stocks but also think the bubble narrative is overblown. I don't think stocks are in a bubble and a "bubble" doesn't seem to be happening for people to chase either. If there is any bubble it would have to be in stocks of less than 5BN in market cap which tbh who cares" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-18 17:31:43 UTC 172K followers, 18.1K engagements
"Either the USD existed or a bank or central bank printed it. Let's start with what I think is the simplest example and one that is quite likely to occur as stable coin AUM grows. Let's say one wants a stable coin for whatever reason whatsoever. They may have a money market" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 12:54:16 UTC 172.2K followers, 4858 engagements
"Interest bill would rise by 50BN per year cuz of new debt but existing debt burden would fall rapidly by 120BN on bill and then at XXX% refi which happens at roughly 2.5TN per year on coupons saving 50bp would reduce by 12.5BN per year So -XXX immediately and then +37BN every year going forward" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 16:54:04 UTC 172K followers, 1428 engagements
"I've never seen things go well for folks taking enough risk on their overall portfolio to experience a X digit percentage return in a year let alone in a month week or day. If you have thats super awesome and you should seriously consider lowering your risk today. I've also rarely seen things go really bad for those who diversify and remain passive and set their risk tolerances at mid teens - twenties annual returns EVEN when a small portion of there book experiences a X digit return" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-21 15:34:30 UTC 172.2K followers, 65.7K engagements
"@sidprabhu Totally agree. Stable coins are bad for the government and the owner and good for the minter" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 22:19:21 UTC 172.2K followers, 4505 engagements
"The greatest trade I ever was involved with and didn't do a story This story includes Buffett Bridgewater Flash Crash and equity puts/vol. it's a doozy. On 5/3/2010 after decades of trading equity bond and option products I joined Bridgewater and became macro focused" @dampedspring on X 2024-05-05 16:39:04 UTC 172K followers, 321.5K engagements
"In comments in one of my posts I came across a person with no risk target for his portfolio and a view that his job is to maximize return without regard to risk. I said the job of every investor is to know what their risk tolerance is and hold a portfolio that takes roughly that risk. Here's my comment Here's what I do. You decide if it's useful. There is a level of change in my wealth that I find to be 1) absolute noise. There is a level I find 2) slightly annoying. A level I find that 3) pisses me off but doesn't upset me. A level that that cause me to 4) loose sleep. A level that causes me" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-23 22:52:41 UTC 172.2K followers, 102.1K engagements
"I will be releasing my Damped Spring Report called "Big Week" to clients on Sunday. It will preview the QRA and FOMC. I think next week will be highly consequential and impact investing for the year to come. It could be either bullish or bearish but it will be big Link for membership on bio" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 11:35:26 UTC 172.2K followers, 56K engagements
"@sidprabhu I agree. It's not new demand for USD it's new demand for bills though" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-27 22:16:52 UTC 172.2K followers, XXX engagements
"$2BN new suckers. Wonder if they bought on margin paying retail margin rates Or if not what did they sell $MSTR $STRC" @dampedspring on X 2025-07-24 18:45:46 UTC 172.2K followers, 32.3K engagements