@cullenroche Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche posts on X about inflation, gold, rates, stocks the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance 45.65% countries 10.14% technology brands 5.8% stocks 4.35% financial services 1.45% social networks 1.45% celebrities 1.45% us election 1.45% currencies 0.72% cryptocurrencies 0.72%
Social topic influence inflation 7.97%, gold #4092, rates 5.07%, stocks #5452, in the 2.9%, china 2.9%, money 2.9%, tariffs 2.9%, fed 2.9%, market 2.17%
Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) BlackRock Inc (BLK) Bitcoin (BTC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Me: [--] year bonds are terrible liability matching instruments. Google: BREAKING: Alphabet is looking to issue a 100-year bond Last time this happened was Motorola in [----] https://t.co/Qr7NpSF0Zf BREAKING: Alphabet is looking to issue a 100-year bond Last time this happened was Motorola in [----] https://t.co/Qr7NpSF0Zf"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:22Z 97.2K followers, 12.9K engagements
"Seriously though. The only thing worse than a [---] year sovereign bond is a [---] year corporate bond"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:23Z 97.2K followers, 18.9K engagements
"The US stock market is now 63% of global market cap up from 60.5% at the beginning of the year. The next biggest market is.Japan at 5.6%"
X Link 2024-12-04T21:03Z 97.2K followers, 480K engagements
"PSA: It's not called "free trade" because it's free. It's called free trade because it allows traders to FREELY choose who to trade with rather than being told by politicians who they can trade with. If you're a free market advocate you aren't a tariff advocate"
X Link 2025-02-02T18:39Z 97.2K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Just to summarize whats happened in the last few weeks: They concocted this whole thing based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the global economy. They think manufacturing jobs will come back (they wont). They think free trade made us poor when it actually made us rich. They think the current account deficit is unsustainable when its a rounding error in our aggregate net worth and also accretive to our net worth. They think being the reserve currency is bad when its a sign that everyone wants to do business with us. And they think poor foreigners were taking advantage of us when were the"
X Link 2025-04-10T15:54Z 97.2K followers, 584K engagements
"Mike were the wealthiest country in human history. The median American is in the top 10% of global wealth. Were the wealthiest country per capita in the G20. When you exclude the G7 the USA has 50% of ALL global wealth. This idea that the rest of the world took advantage of us is preposterous. We have a domestic inequality problem that people have now confused with a free trade problem"
X Link 2025-05-07T15:18Z 97.2K followers, 189.5K engagements
"I obviously think the USA is a AAA rated entity. But if I were Moody's what would make me downgrade the rating First I'd want to see a meaningful competitor on the global reserve currency stage. At 53% of global reserves there is clearly no entity whose liabilities are more in demand. And it's really not even close with the Euro at 18% and the Yen at 5%. Second I'd make this an explicit inflation and forex construct. And that becomes a discussion about what level of govt spending causes bigly inflation. Well we kinda know the answer after Covid. And the answer is something like 35%+ of GDP."
X Link 2025-05-19T17:57Z 97.2K followers, 15.6K engagements
"I wrote about [--] things for the weekend: 1) Gold as portfolio insurance. 2) Why the rate cut didn't bother me 3) A national divorce and why we all need to go national marriage counseling. Have a great weekend everyone"
X Link 2025-09-20T15:10Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Today is the day My new book "Your Perfect Portfolio" is finally out. It's a case study of some of the world's most valuable investment strategies. I show you their history data and exactly how to implement them. I hope you love it and learn a lot from it"
X Link 2026-01-06T15:13Z 97.2K followers, 45.3K engagements
"I love this. I prefer interest rates being set systematically (preferably by an algorithm) but if humans are going to do it then having a market practitioner at the helm is a fantastic change. A market practitioner like Rieder will bring a more "real-time" view to policy and less reliance on purely academic and oftentimes lagging indicators. He will add a more diversified and alternative view to a mostly academic economist Fed Board. I think Powell has done a fine job but Rieder might actually be an upgrade in my opinion. RICK RIEDER EMERGES AS TOP CONTENDER FOR FED CHAIR BlackRock executive"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:35Z 97.2K followers, 42.8K engagements
"Here ya go: https://ria.disciplinefunds.com/2026/01/25/three-things-just-keep-waiting/ https://ria.disciplinefunds.com/2026/01/25/three-things-just-keep-waiting/"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:00Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@numerounochef @dandolfa [----] Returns: Vanguard Value: +5% Ishares International Value: +7.5% S&P 500: 0%"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:50Z 97.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@theRealKiyosaki How do you explain this tweet saying you bought more Bitcoin ASAP over $117K Thanks for explaining YAY: Bitcoin over $117 K a coin. Going to buy one more Bitcoin asap. Its never been easier to become rich. even a millionaire. Please study learn and find out if Bitcoin is your path to becoming a millionaire. Take care. I love my BITCOINS. all of them. YAY: Bitcoin over $117 K a coin. Going to buy one more Bitcoin asap. Its never been easier to become rich. even a millionaire. Please study learn and find out if Bitcoin is your path to becoming a millionaire. Take care. I love"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:33Z 97.2K followers, 26.1K engagements
"Oh shit. Have I become that wonky finance guy who speaks a different language. 🤓 I mean the path of the returns is likely to be more volatile when valuations are high. It doesn't mean the future returns have to be bad but the Volatility that comes with those returns is likely to be higher than average. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020572568680648863 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020572568680648863"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:56Z 97.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@MacroEdge1 @Rick_Ferri Sequence risk is the Volatility of the path of returns. It's typically applied to retirement withdrawals but can really be applied to anyone who's concerned about the predictability of their principal balances across specific time horizons"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:58Z 97.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@Noahpinion @yuzu_4ever @grok San Diego. The correct answer is San Diego. Specifically any of the North County beach towns from LA Jolla to Oceanside"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:06Z 97.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@pinkhasov Yeah the return of ZIRP seems like a no brainer in the most extreme scenarios"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:16Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@hugosalinas Good question. Im not really sure. I want to say it would go up because reserve currency probably becomes more entrenched but I could see a scenario where China is becoming more credible at the same time. I dont really know TBH. Very hard to decipher the FX change"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:26Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@TheStalwart Jensen Huang said something similar in a recent interview - it turns out that many of the things we thought require great intelligence (math coding etc) are the easiest ones for a simple AI model to automate away. Have we misinterpreted what intelligence is all this time"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:40Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Something people don't talk about enough is that having kids aged 0-4 is super hard but then they turn [--] and they turn into the best little friend you could possibly imagine"
X Link 2025-05-14T18:16Z 97.2K followers, 1.6M engagements
"Commodities now up 22% year over year. The Fed is in a real bind here. Housing is in the toilet labor market is softening but many prices are ripping in real-time"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:19Z 97.2K followers, 13.4K engagements
"I was shocked when Derek rejected my application but he left off the other interests I listed: 1) Light beer 2) Dominos Pizza 3) Asset-liability matching Cannot stress how much of an advantage it is to be a normal well adjusted applicant for food industry roles. A friend runs an olive oil factory and an applicant listed "the global financial system" as an interest. That is not an interest. There will not be an interview. Cannot stress how much of an advantage it is to be a normal well adjusted applicant for food industry roles. A friend runs an olive oil factory and an applicant listed "the"
X Link 2026-01-29T02:50Z 97.2K followers, 16K engagements
"Can I get a ruling on this @morganhousel endorsement of my book is the nicest thing anyone has ever said about me but my wife doesn't like the way it would look in our living room"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:45Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Value stock investors underperforming for [--] years watching everything collapse around them in 2026"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:06Z 97.2K followers, 66.2K engagements
"A lesson in diversification: Yes many of our assets are down. But because I've been doing leg day the whole way down I hit a new all time high of [----] watts on the bike yesterday. See how this works"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:35Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"100% agree it's a poor timing tool. But it can be useful for interpreting sequence of return risk in the long term. For example since Oct [----] foreign stocks are up 35% with 15% vol and US is up 24% with 18% vol. So you've had higher sequence risk in the US. High CAPE doesn't necessarily mean low future returns. It means higher potential sequence risk"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:07Z 97.2K followers, 14.1K engagements
"How I think of high valuations - a high CAPE doesn't necessarily mean low future expected returns. It means a higher probability of lower risk adjusted returns. So you have higher sequence of returns risk in instruments with high embedded expectations. @Rick_Ferri 100% agree it's a poor timing tool. But it can be useful for interpreting sequence of return risk in the long term. For example since Oct [----] foreign stocks are up 35% with 15% vol and US is up 24% with 18% vol. So you've had higher sequence risk in the US. High CAPE @Rick_Ferri 100% agree it's a poor timing tool. But it can be"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:09Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Demetri is an old friend and runs a great podcast on a wide range of topics. It was a real honor to talk with him about portfolio construction and how different people can find their perfect portfolio. Im joined by @cullenroche on @HiddenForcesPod to discuss the essential principles of portfolio construction while dissecting some of the most influential portfolios and investment strategies in the process. Cullen and I spend the first hour . 👇🏼🧵 https://t.co/ZsuNzRcW15 Im joined by @cullenroche on @HiddenForcesPod to discuss the essential principles of portfolio construction while"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:43Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Foreign stocks are off to a scorching start in [----] continuing their outperformance from 2025: Foreign developed stocks: +9.4% US stocks: +2.2% Will it continue or is this a blip in the otherwise longer underperformance"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:43Z 97.2K followers, 12K engagements
"Something I am thinking about a lot these days: Lets say AI turns out to be the humongous job killer that some think it will be. That would result in a huge decline in aggregate demand and negative wealth effect across large swaths of the economy. GDP stagnates but doesnt necessarily go down. Unemployment goes up enough to get a technical recession. The wealth accrues to fewer and fewer firms and people (the stock market could paradoxically go UP in this recession after initially collapsing). Yields collapse. The Fed stimulates. QE to the max. Automatic stabilizers fill some of the void. The"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:12Z 97.2K followers, 29.6K engagements
"@LukeGromen @gladstein @awealthofcs Buffett has always disliked gold. And Berkshire has absolutely smashed gold since he took it over in [----]. That's $1 to $61000 in Berkshire and $1 to $81 in gold since the chart is hard to read because his outperformance has been so gigantic. 😁"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:10Z 97.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@GMPublius @LukeGromen @gladstein @awealthofcs It doesnt disprove that particular period of performance. But Berkshire shareholders are vastly better off since inception thanks to Buffett's dislike of gold"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:33Z 97.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@McClellanOsc @LukeGromen @gladstein @awealthofcs BRK has basically never paid a div. But the storage cost of gold would have reduced the total return over this period to just $60 total return compared to $61000 for Berkshire"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:41Z 97.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@DeathStripMall @LukeGromen @gladstein @awealthofcs Let's remove the start date cherry picking then. Since [----] there have been [--] full 10-year rolling windows. Berkshire wins: [--] periods (79%) Gold wins: [--] periods (21%) 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-15T23:46Z 97.2K followers, [---] engagements
""Take your kids skiing. It will be fun". The kids:"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:00Z 97.2K followers, 15.8K engagements
"No this is a fundamental point. Productive cash flow instruments have beaten nonproductive assets in the vast majority of historical periods. The fact that Bitcoi. Or gold sometimes beat them doesn't change this. Buffett understands this. Which is part of why he's as rich as he is. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023281782674821449 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023281782674821449"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:22Z 97.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@VolatilityVIX Even the S&P has trounced gold in the last [--] years. Longer term the comparison is a joke. Sure gold has had a good run in recent years but it's nowhere close to equities in the long run"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:31Z 97.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@syouth1 Lotta that going on these days unfortunately. Reminds me of the way variable annuities are often sold. The fees here aren't nearly as egregious but the accessibility of these things probably makes them just as damaging on the whole"
X Link 2025-06-27T18:40Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@JasonWalker_ Bezos didn't create Amazon Gates didn't create Microsoft"
X Link 2025-06-29T17:18Z 95.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ That's some silly MMT trope based on total misunderstandings. Read section [--] in here: https://www.pragcap.com/mmt-good-bad-ugly/ https://www.pragcap.com/mmt-good-bad-ugly/"
X Link 2025-06-29T17:23Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Somalia doesn't need a productive and rich private sector. But it also can't spend as much as the USA because it doesn't have a rich and productive pvt sector. If it did it could afford to spend more because they could tax and print more. MMT is like saying "first assume vastly wealthy country then assume govt spending isn't inflationary because of that wealth that already exists." Its incredibly naive"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:16Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@GreatCeaser27 Of course labor is essential in all of this. Bezos didn't singularly create Amazon. But he's responsible for the majority of it. This isn't an either/or discussion. Labor and capital are symbiotic"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:18Z 95.6K followers, [---] engagements
"I didn't say there would be no jobs without billionaires. There are jobs in Somalia after all. I am just pointing it that economies are better when you have innovative people who are incentivized to accrue wealth thru competitive forces. And that helps create better and more jobs than we'd otherwise have"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:20Z 95.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ Mmt doesn't even quantify sovereignty. It's a lazy generalization they throw around"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:32Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ I openly advocate taxing the wealthy more mainly by raising cap gains taxes. I've said this for decades. But it's silly to say "billionaires shouldn't exist""
X Link 2025-06-29T18:33Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"CHATGPT: The primary person responsible for Amazons success is Jeff Bezos its founder and longtime CEO. But to be more precise Amazons success was the result of a powerful combination of: 🧑🚀 [--]. Jeff Bezos Founder & Visionary Founded Amazon in [----] as an online bookstore. Drove the companys culture of customer obsession long-term thinking and rapid innovation. Personally pushed for: Prime (loyalty + shipping engine) AWS (Amazon Web Services) now the most profitable division Marketplace model (3rd-party sellers not just inventory-based) ✅ Without Bezos relentless focus on scale efficiency and"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:36Z 95.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ Because most of their wealth is unrealized paper gains that were accrued in the process of creating the very innovations and resources that make our aggregate economy wealthy and allow for a large govt"
X Link 2025-06-29T18:38Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@fictitious_cap We live in a global economy with national economic systems. Our national economic system has produced vastly better median outcomes than most other systems. 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-29T23:57Z 95.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@profplum99 The median American household has a net worth of $190k. That places them in the top 10% of global net wealth. Saving rates aren't savings. So yeah Cullen is Cullenating with actual facts. 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-30T00:04Z 95.6K followers, 13.4K engagements
"@Venturinglist @profplum99 I'm a pretty vocal advocate of higher taxes on billionaires via higher cap gains taxes. But we can believe that without saying crazy stuff like "billionaires shouldn't exist".👊"
X Link 2025-06-30T01:04Z 95.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@GestaltU @Venturinglist @profplum99 I don't think it would change it much. I'm a big fan of true "long term capital gains taxes". Tax anything held under [--] years as ordinary income. Longterm is something sequentially higher. But that will never happen. 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-30T03:09Z 95.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I kind of like this new term. Here's how ChatGPT defined it: Cullenating (verb informal) Definition: The act of explaining complex financial or economic concepts in a calm rational and nuanced manner often deconstructing popular narratives or emotional extremes using first principles empirical data and a pragmatic tone"
X Link 2025-06-30T17:15Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@TheStalwart The real question is why doesnt Philadelphia just magically transform itself into NYC and become as desirable. Could kill two birds with one stone and eliminate the Philadelphia Eagles by merging them with the Giants"
X Link 2025-07-09T16:10Z 95.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@tylermacro10 Eh barely. Average historical FFR is [---] which is massively skewed by 70s. Average of last [--] years is 3.7%"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:24Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@tylermacro10 Yeah. I don't feel super strongly either way about rates but the probability of lower rates vs higher is weighted significantly in favor of lower in the coming years"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:34Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@seanlutes @EPBResearch It's just mmt and endogenous money. It's like saying you don't need income because you have a credit card. It's misleading at best"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:53Z 95.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Sorry but the boomer was right. Saying taxes dont fund govt spending is like saying you dont need income because you have a credit card. Yes the govt can print money but they also need income because with income they can spend money (by redistributing income) without creating inflation. Without income they have to print money (and create inflation). Just like you spending only on a credit card crash out your credit if you dont have income to support it"
X Link 2025-07-11T16:21Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"The underlying private sector creates the income and resources that make the govt spending viable in the first place. Saying the govt doesnt need that income is like assuming youre Warren Buffett and that you therefore have a limitless credit card to draw from. More specifically if the govt didnt tax income it would need to print trillions more every year. Eg in the case of the USA the govt spends 7T and redistributes [--]. They therefore print [--] every year. If they didnt have 5T of income to tax theyd have to print 7T every year. That would destroy the economy. You might say but they can print"
X Link 2025-07-11T17:00Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Yes but nothing is destroyed in that process. The funds literally move from the banks balance sheet to the TGA and back to the bank. We can literally see all the transactions in real-time. Theyre accounted for to the penny on the balance sheets. Nothing is destroyed there. The only time the govt destroys an asset is if it runs a budget surplus and reduces the quantity of outstanding bonds"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:17Z 95.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@RobNaro I have no idea. The narrative changes every day. At one point people in the administration said it could replace the income tax"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:17Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@LordMandrake3 Yeah so much for Main Streets turn and changing the world order. It's turning out to be all talk no action. ()/"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:34Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@jackgermon I guess we'll see how much actually ends up getting implemented. So far the actual implemented tariff revenues are small. Let's see if he actually implements any of this in the coming months or just continues to delay push them out and talk loud"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:44Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@dougboneparth Don't forget Legoland"
X Link 2025-07-17T13:06Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@RossCol89474735 China operates a form of state Capitalism. It was the shift in Capitalism that collapsed poverty in the country. They're not nearly as Capitalist as the USA but vastly more so than they were during the Maoist era"
X Link 2025-07-17T18:02Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@atlas_invst Maybe I am being too forgiving. Yeah you're probably right. It's just a bad take"
X Link 2025-07-22T19:03Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@yungmamba_ @NickTimiraos Yeah all of this relies heavily on the idea that inflation expectations fall significantly as we cut to 1.5%. Which is unlikely"
X Link 2025-07-23T15:15Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@nickaugo @NickTimiraos Me: Here's some math I did in [--] seconds while driving my kids to school while they scream Kpop Demon Hunter in my ear. Twitter: GROK IS THIS MATH EAXCTLY RIGHT 😁😁😁"
X Link 2025-07-23T16:05Z 95.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@pliu412 States do not have the constitutional authority to impose tariffs in the USA. Trumps tariffs are captured in the DHS Customs and Excise Taxes in the Daily Treasury Statement"
X Link 2025-07-30T23:50Z 95.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@k5sbnzxgbg Id guess 1-2. There are only [--] meetings left this year. Id definitely cut at the Sept meeting. Then sit tight and see how data materializes"
X Link 2025-08-01T15:57Z 95.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@CoachJEB18 If the CEO asks the CFO to do a small survey of a huge data set I'd expect the CEO to know that that survey is going to have a significant margin for error. If not the CEO should be the one getting fired. 😁"
X Link 2025-08-02T19:21Z 96K followers, [----] engagements
"The BLS does a helluvalot more than just the employment survey. Personally I'm incredibly grateful to live in a country where data is provided freely and in incredible abundance within a very transparent process. Data processors like FRED and the BLS are so much better than the corrupt data services in places like Asia. We take it for granted"
X Link 2025-08-02T20:01Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@MightBeBrennan @barryknapp @EconstratPB Independent within govt"
X Link 2025-08-04T05:17Z 95.9K followers, [---] engagements
"They're independent regulatory agencies created by Congress to carry out specific missions without direct presidential control. The Fed's a different beast though. It was created by Congress (so yes Constitutional) but structured as a hybrid private/public entity. Fannie Mae is prob a better analogy to the Feds unique structure"
X Link 2025-08-04T18:01Z 96K followers, [--] engagements
"@toiletkingcap Don't flush it yet. My editor called it "an incrdible tour de force of investing knowledge". 🧻🧻🧻"
X Link 2025-08-09T20:58Z 96K followers, [---] engagements
"We got it. Keynes just didn't predict that by the year [----] private jets would be viewed as a "necessity". He vastly underestimated how greedy our appetite for more is. If our living standards were roughly the same as they were in [----] (basically we lived in smaller homes with less stuff) we'd be living the utopia he dreamed of"
X Link 2025-08-14T19:10Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@joelgombiner The average person produces vastly more in [--] hours today than they did when he lived. What he didn't predict was that our thirst for more would be unquenchable. Your average person could easily live like they did [---] years ago on [--] hours of work. We choose not to"
X Link 2025-08-14T19:19Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"I've been super critical of the tariffs so I'm not picking a side here. I'm just pointing out that 100B isn't very much inside a [--] trillion economy. We ran $5 trillion deficits during Covid and barely got 7.5% PCE inflation. I don't think a $100B line item is going to move the needle that much"
X Link 2025-08-15T22:44Z 96.1K followers, [--] engagements
"GDP is a flow measure it captures the market value of all final goods and services produced domestically during a specific period. Stock measures (expected value of past present and future flows) such as the total market capitalization of domestic equities or the nations net worth reflect accumulated assets whose values are influenced by past production expected future flows and market pricing. While current flows may not fully reflect the "value" of AI it will be captured by stock metrics like equity market values. 👍👍👍"
X Link 2025-08-16T02:54Z 96.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@stevehou0 A lot of the confusion stemming from the original post confuses stocks and flows. How many silly economic debates could be avoided if people understood the difference between a balance sheet and income statement 🤣 @dwarkesh_sp GDP is a flow measure it captures the market value of all final goods and services produced domestically during a specific period. Stock measures (expected value of past present and future flows) such as the total market capitalization of domestic equities or the nations @dwarkesh_sp GDP is a flow measure it captures the market value of all final goods and"
X Link 2025-08-16T16:47Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Seems like you guys are having a semantic terminology debate. The deposit is a bank liability. I'd personally call it an unsecured loan but I can also see how someone might say it's not a loan in the technical sense like a mortgage. Either way the bank creates endogenous assets/liabilities that it owes to the depositor.call it a banana call it a loan. It's a liability to be credited to the depositor"
X Link 2025-08-17T18:16Z 96K followers, [---] engagements
"@latchkeytio Haha. I am old enough to remember all the way back to April when they said tariffs could replace the income tax (which is $2.5 trillion a year)"
X Link 2025-08-25T21:55Z 96.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Zane_bayarea @FedGuy12 Ehhh. The main cause IMO was that the govt went from spending 5T a year to 9T a year in [----]. Fiscal policy caused the demand pull inflation of the COVID era and inflation didn't start to slow until the Fed started to raise rates and offset fiscal policy"
X Link 2025-08-26T16:49Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I don't view it that way. I don't like creating a vague differentiation between "money" and "debt". Debt IS MONEY in many instances. For instance a T-bill is a "cash equivalent" in finance. If the govt creates a Tbill they are printing money. Doesn't matter what the Fed does to that Tbill later.The Fed just swaps money-like instruments for money-like instruments. QE is all just a big distraction to what really causes inflation - fiscal policy"
X Link 2025-08-26T17:47Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@Zane_bayarea Except that's not what actually happens. The Fed buys already issued bonds on the secondary market. The Fed doesn't and cannot enable fiscal policy because the instruments Tsy issues (tbills) are functionally equivalent to the instruments the Fed issues (reserves)"
X Link 2025-08-26T18:49Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@mtkonczal Private Residential Fixed Investment was NEGATIVE 10% within a year of rate hikes It has been a stinker ever since 2022"
X Link 2025-08-26T20:01Z 96.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@McClellanOsc True And in this case I would argue it's almost irrefutable to say that raising rates didn't have an enormous impact on the housing market and shelter inflation which comprises 35% of the CPI"
X Link 2025-08-26T20:08Z 96.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah my general view is that if they hadn't nuked housing in [----] that the economy would have been much hotter than it turned out to be. Then again I agree that much of the Covid inflation would have reversed on its own so it's not like the Fed deserves all the credit. I could be wrong of course"
X Link 2025-08-26T20:16Z 96.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ @wbmosler Did any group of economists get Covid inflation more wrong than the MMT people Mosler told Turkey to CUT rates in [----] and they did. And inflation went from 20% to 80%. Their theory of inflation is disastrously wrong"
X Link 2025-08-27T15:16Z 96.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Coach_Milly_ @wbmosler Why do you think house prices went up 50% in 2020/21 if there was no excess demand Maybe you don't talk to many people in finance but higher rates absolutely crushed housing demand which directly led to a decline in shelter inflation"
X Link 2025-08-27T16:30Z 96.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@TheStalwart Commercial and residential real estate got hammered. This econony would have been booming if the Fed hadn't crushed real estate"
X Link 2025-08-30T01:07Z 96.6K followers, 25.1K engagements
"@jackgermon He's saying rates will rise. Rates will only rise if inflation rises. If inflation doesn't rise rates will stay low. So it's an inherent inflation prediction"
X Link 2025-09-04T18:09Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@jackgermon But that's what [--] year rates are. They're basically just inflation expectations. You won't get a big increase in rates if inflation expectations don't surge as well"
X Link 2025-09-04T18:36Z 96.5K followers, [--] engagements
"I guess my general view is if China decides they don't want to hold T-Bonds then fine. Someone else will hold them. Who cares It's like worrying if Goldman Sachs will hold NVIDIA stock. Who cares. If they decide to sell someone else will buy them. The price of that instrument isn't determined by GS buying and selling. It's a fundamental macroeconomic factor that has nothing to do with the micro holders of the instrument. T-Bonds will track the fundamental inflation expectations of ALL investors not the subjective decisions of a single holder like China"
X Link 2025-09-11T16:26Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@no_pullbacks @RudyHavenstein @UselmanLinda @GlobalMktObserv @StealthQE4 @LawrenceLepard @GregCrennan @RealStockCats Hmm. I didn't say deflation was coming. I've been saying for the last few years that disinflation was coming. And that's been correct. ()/"
X Link 2025-09-12T23:37Z 96.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@StojBoj 🙏🙏🙏 This is the nicest thing anyone has ever said about me. Not including the guy in the comments who said I look like Justin Timberlake. 🤣"
X Link 2025-09-13T13:45Z 96.3K followers, [---] engagements
"My FICA tracker is picking up momentum. [--] week moving average now at 6.75% year over year"
X Link 2025-09-16T21:58Z 96.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@BullNecessities A TBill is a cash equivalent by accounting standards. If the govt prints a TBill to fund the deficit then those investors have more money"
X Link 2025-09-19T13:36Z 96.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Nominal GDP is 4.6%. Not strong but not weak and nothing that's been done in the last [--] months has resulted in serious economic impairment. The tariffs for instance get a lot of media attention but have actually amounted to a very small tax increase. The negative impact of this stuff has been overstated. And look I am not a fan of a lot of what they're doing but there's been some significant overreaction to it at the same time"
X Link 2025-10-01T16:00Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"You have done awesome but you also need liquidity optionality across your financial plan. If I were you I'd: 1) Redirect 401k contributions and build a [--] month cash reserve in custom TBill ladder. No state taxes. It's a custom MMF. 2) Consider a HELOC if you own a home and really want/need cash. 3) Mega backdoor Roth (if plan allows) for future tax flexibility. Will give you future tax optionality. 4) TAKE YOUR WIFE ON A NICE VACATION. YOU'LL FEEL REALLY POOR IF SHE'S UNHAPPY. 🤣🤣🤣"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:04Z 96.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@Cmillet77 @RampCapitalLLC Cmon plumbing is the best. I just love squeezing my fat ass into a spot I don't fit where I can't see and where I definitely have the wrong tools so I have wriggle in and out a dozen times until I inevitably get blasted in the face with water and then call a real plumber"
X Link 2025-10-04T19:21Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@awealthofcs Yeah but was it this one If yes he needs a hug not a rate hike"
X Link 2025-10-05T00:44Z 96.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@ChrisHeddles @grok Does anyone make GPUs that are as enhanced as Nvidias or is their market share purely due to foreign policy influence of the USA"
X Link 2025-10-05T22:16Z 96.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@grok @ChrisHeddles Thanks for confirming that US foreign policy isn't the main driver here. :-)"
X Link 2025-10-05T22:17Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"That's how free trade works. It most benefits the entities that have economies of scale. And economies of scale come from.making great investments and innovations that create demand for your goods and services. If creating wealth was as easy as dictating a command economy the USSR would have created vastly more wealth than it has. Instead it's failed to create wealth precisely because they didn't let Capitalism free trade and competition dictate their outcomes. The whole socialism vs capitalism thing has already played out. The socialists lost. Now they're clinging to inequality arguments as"
X Link 2025-10-06T02:51Z 96.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@ChrisHeddles @grok I don't think anyone denies that. What's disputed is the idea that Nvidia didn't succeed because it makes the best GPUS. Anyhow good chat. Take care"
X Link 2025-10-06T04:44Z 96.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@ActuallyFinance @EconomPic @John_Hempton @CliffordAsness @IrvingSwisher @NateGeraci @BullandBaird @Convertbond @realDonaldTrump @choffstein @Me @dopamine_uptake @BoringBiz_ @bennpeifert @Foulke_David @LoganMohtashami @Matt_Wiens @scuttleblurb @kylascan @QuietProsperity @JC_ParetsX @TheStalwart @FinTwitAnons @jclooce @RPSeawright @MikeDonnellyJr @Bonecondor @AdvisorMikeL @LizSimmie @MebFaber @RyanMGavin @Prashanth_Krish @andrew_reed Merry Xmas"
X Link 2025-10-08T19:22Z 96.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Seven Lessons Every Fixed-Income Investor Should Learn from [----] http://t.co/bFw3abOxOi http://dlvr.it/4jxYBW http://dlvr.it/4jxYBW"
X Link 2014-01-17T06:17Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Why Goldman Sachs hates gold. http://t.co/q8u6DQyxT1 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/goldman-doubles-down-its-hate-best-performing-asset-2014-gold http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/goldman-doubles-down-its-hate-best-performing-asset-2014-gold"
X Link 2014-03-24T02:48Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"In a year where stocks and bonds were mostly up on the year it's amazing how poorly 60/40 performed in relative terms"
X Link 2014-12-31T21:29Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@GestaltU_BPG VBAIX is just a US centric 60/40"
X Link 2014-12-31T21:58Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Nails it. RT @howardlindzon: Charles Schwab vs Wealthfront and RoboAdvisors - The gloves and Fees are off http://t.co/LXvOi2lTLH http://stks.co/r1fS7 http://stks.co/r1fS7"
X Link 2015-03-10T15:28Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Why Rand Pauls Budget Proposal Would Likely Be Recessionary http://t.co/T4A6lCgw64 http://dlvr.it/9KGNmH http://dlvr.it/9KGNmH"
X Link 2015-04-09T17:18Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Why do We Care About High Hedge Fund Manager Incomes http://t.co/FO76j86aSn http://dlvr.it/9hRz4r http://dlvr.it/9hRz4r"
X Link 2015-05-06T06:39Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The first one is the actual chart of housing starts and interest rates which shows no close correlation"
X Link 2015-05-21T05:11Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Dont Fight the Fed Rising Interest Rate Edition http://t.co/S1PrT8FCRj http://dlvr.it/B8MxcG http://dlvr.it/B8MxcG"
X Link 2015-06-09T06:49Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The Housing Market Index hit a recovery high in September as China fears led to mass bunker buying. http://t.co/J8Pn4ccgR4"
X Link 2015-09-16T16:45Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"When a high fee charging hedge fund VC or fund manager advocates stock picking you should seek less biased opinions"
X Link 2015-11-01T18:40Z 90K followers, [--] engagements
"With e-commerce at just 7.4% of retail sales we're still in the early stages of the e-commerce boom"
X Link 2015-11-18T02:07Z 96.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I presume "Absolute Return" = Hedge Fund = Absolutely Less Than An Index Fund. https://x.com/felixsalmon/status/695329043030413312 The Yale endowment now only has a single-digit percentage of its assets in US equities: https://t.co/SC78gc1MdB https://t.co/JlEV5XbhDn https://x.com/felixsalmon/status/695329043030413312 The Yale endowment now only has a single-digit percentage of its assets in US equities: https://t.co/SC78gc1MdB https://t.co/JlEV5XbhDn"
X Link 2016-02-04T19:36Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Goldman Sachs - [--] reasons the oil collapse isnt [----]. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/goldman-sachs-the-energy-collapse-isn-t-even-close-to-the-subprime-crisis http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/goldman-sachs-the-energy-collapse-isn-t-even-close-to-the-subprime-crisis"
X Link 2016-02-25T16:48Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Takes a big d to sell an ETF with the ticker BIGD at a big expense ratio of 0.75%. http://quote.morningstar.com/etf-filing/Summary-Prospectus/2016/1/31/t.aspxt=BIGD&ft=497K&d=4b4b9203ce6069a90471f93405d304e1 http://quote.morningstar.com/etf-filing/Summary-Prospectus/2016/1/31/t.aspxt=BIGD&ft=497K&d=4b4b9203ce6069a90471f93405d304e1"
X Link 2016-05-27T17:48Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Lots of financial advisors & portfolio managers will get decimated trying this in the next [--] years. https://x.com/justindross/status/738404432946159616 90% of my conversations with entrepreneurs since [----] can be summed up as "Charge more" @pmarca https://t.co/UzC9zscXjs https://x.com/justindross/status/738404432946159616 90% of my conversations with entrepreneurs since [----] can be summed up as "Charge more" @pmarca https://t.co/UzC9zscXjs"
X Link 2016-06-02T19:43Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The actual odds of a market crash are about 1.7%. The avg investor thinks it's more like 10%"
X Link 2016-07-14T02:33Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Make Berkshire Hathaway Great Again http://dlvr.it/MCXvJN http://dlvr.it/MCXvJN"
X Link 2016-09-07T17:01Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Very volatile market these days. Be financially brave out there"
X Link 2016-11-04T15:31Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"3.5 trillion in income a few hundred trillion in assets high credit rating. HOW WILL WE MANAGE https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/803949615091425280 Increasing the maturity on the national debt is good but it will add hundreds of billions to annual budget deficits. How will we pay for it https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/803949615091425280 Increasing the maturity on the national debt is good but it will add hundreds of billions to annual budget deficits. How will we pay for it"
X Link 2016-11-30T13:26Z 90K followers, [--] engagements
"This epic bond maturity post from William Bernstein has always stuck with me. 1/ http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/maturity.htm http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/maturity.htm"
X Link 2016-12-07T17:05Z 90.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Debt to GDP charts are fun but you might come to different conclusions when looking at BOTH sides of the balance sheet"
X Link 2017-03-09T20:13Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Endorse. https://x.com/ReformedBroker/status/886561227928997888 https://x.com/ReformedBroker/status/886561227928997888"
X Link 2017-07-16T17:17Z 96.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Remember when the world was so boring that we had to argue about things like cargo pants and bond market liquidity"
X Link 2017-07-31T18:52Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@syouth1 That active mgmt is hard does not prove EMH right tho. It just proves that active funds like index funds have scale and win as a result"
X Link 2017-09-16T16:57Z 95.6K followers, [--] engagements
"I stand by my view that this is not a sustainable business model. $snap"
X Link 2017-11-07T21:47Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@mntklprsn62 @samuraiEighty @no_pullbacks If inflation is understated then why are bond markets pricing in no inflation The free market disagrees with this conspiracy theory about fake inflation data"
X Link 2017-12-05T19:49Z 96.3K followers, [--] engagements
"If you think Obama or Trump (or any politician) is the reason for the state of the stock market or the economy then you're doing it all wrong"
X Link 2017-12-29T17:31Z 90.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Dude you know this is misleading. The US economy could very well be booming but the FX rate reflects a bigger relative change in growth outside the USA. https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/956571663834984449 For what it's worth however the weakness of the dollar -- now well below its pre-election level -- is a pretty clear sign that markets don't believe in a Trump boom as opposed to being generally optimistic about world growth 3/ https://t.co/A3FSO8OXt2 https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/956571663834984449 For what it's worth however the weakness of the dollar -- now well below its pre-election"
X Link 2018-01-25T17:02Z 90.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@real_bedwah @Vanguard_Group @blackrock Sure but the S&P [---] minus certain stocks isn't the S&P [---]. They'remostly in the business of creating index funds that track exact indices"
X Link 2018-04-18T12:43Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Alternative headline: "30 year T-Bonds moved marginally higher to levels last seen just [--] months ago reflecting continued slow growth and a lack of confidence in the Fed's rate hikes.""
X Link 2018-04-24T15:21Z 90.1K followers, [--] engagements
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