@cannibalstocks Sandro

Sandro posts on X about $rig, $val, $cdlx, debt the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [------] #

[--] Week [-------] +468%
[--] Month [-------] +552%
[--] Months [-------] +218%
[--] Year [-------] +2,022%

Mentions: [--] #

[--] Week [--] +219%
[--] Month [--] +79%
[--] Months [---] +63%
[--] Year [---] +1,405%

Followers: [-----] #

[--] Week [---] +176%
[--] Month [---] +196%
[--] Months [---] +718%
[--] Year [---] +1,936%

CreatorRank: [-------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance 41% cryptocurrencies #933 stocks 12% technology brands 4% countries 2% financial services 1% luxury brands 1% automotive brands 1%

Social topic influence $rig #2, $val #1, $cdlx 15%, debt #575, in the 12%, $amr #2, $hcc #3, rig #23, cash flow #70, flow #1294

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jlfitnessinph @leroyiii481373 @bobertbedford @nativistconcern @bwieaktien @theshy08746434 @nishant10a @duane2020a @ronstermon @darkstarsats @zenjaycfa @petergfbarr @jjanegle @peterdacreep @duedillengence @robbie200611 @formativeetf @grok @christo92787346 @contratrades

Top assets mentioned Transocean LTD. (RIG) Validity (VAL) Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Autozone Inc (AZO) Noble Corporation (NE) AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Match Group Inc (MTCH) Metadium (META) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) The Official [--] Coin (93) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) American Tower Corp (AMT) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Vertex Protocol (VRTX) 3M Co (MMM)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$CDLX avg down to $1.76. Enough time to adapt 2026-2028 no bankruptcy risk as even the conservative scenario allows refinancing [----] debt. Most adv likely moving from Chase to AmEx with no revenue share. Other business segments monetized from [----]. Hero or (zero)"
X Link 2025-08-11T15:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Im not a macro guy but its likely well see lower interest rates and thats huge for nano-caps $cdlx"
X Link 2025-08-11T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"AutoZone reduced its share count by nearly 90%. Net income went up about 10x. EPS went up about 90x. Still think this is a boring company Full write-up in comments below. $azo"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Which industries are best for investing The best industries are hated industries. Uranium was a hated industry in the early 2000s. Stocks traded at very low valuations. Cameco $ccj traded around 13x EV EBITDA in [----] and [----]. The share price was between [--] and [--] dollars. Then the market understood reality. Uranium was scarce. We desperately needed a reliable source of electricity. Today Cameco trades around 70x EV EBITDA and the share price is roughly [--] times higher than in [----]. Returns were exceptional for those who were interested in a hated industry. Met coal is a hated industry today. I"
X Link 2026-01-31T11:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Sable Offshore update Michael Gorzynski Executive Chairman of Continental General Insurance Company and since December [----] Chairman of the Board of Alpha Metallurgical Resources has reported that Continental General Insurance Company directly holds [--------] shares of Sable Offshore Corp. The purchase may have been executed in multiple tranches. Schedule 13G only confirms that as of the reporting date they held [--------] shares. It does not disclose when the shares were purchased or at what price. This means the position could be a single transaction or an accumulation over time. The Schedule"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$mtch coming soon"
X Link 2026-02-07T05:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Boom news Transocean announced it will acquire Valaris in an all stock deal worth about [---] billion dollars This creates the largest offshore driller globally with a combined fleet of [--] rigs and unmatched scale in ultra deepwater and harsh environment More soon. $rig $val https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020855968372789517 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020855968372789517"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@nativistconcern I dont agree. The shares will trade at much higher levels than that. ☺"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"In the March [----] annual filing sent to shareholders management writes: Our priority is the efficient conversion of backlog to cash in order to address upcoming maturities and delever the balance sheet. The same document goes further and makes the key promise: Once we sufficiently reduce our leverage we intend to define and communicate our plan to return capital to shareholders. On the Q3 [----] earnings call the CFO added the missing detail: Once leverage is reduced management intends to return capital primarily through share repurchases rather than dividends."
X Link 2026-02-10T06:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Contra_Trades This could realistically happen if they sell a few jackups and use the proceeds to immediately pay down a large part of the debt. If the offshore market tightens again at the same time the setup changes fast"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fair point. But the market is not valuing $3.4B as durable. It is treating it as peak cycle with high leverage and high cyclicality so it slaps a 20% cost of capital on it. If earnings prove to be sustainable once debt comes down and utilization stays tight $12B wont be the right number. The multiple rerates fast. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021196319063232868 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021196319063232868"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Kacper_PK_CH Historically that was true. My view is that this time is different. Ultra deepwater is structurally constrained. There have been virtually no newbuild UDW rigs for more than a decade"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JLfitnessinph I think this is a terrific deal they have done. That said it may still take a few years for the full value to show up"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ronstermon I actually ran a debt stress test on $RIG and thanks to the acquisition the situation looks much better than I initially thought. https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/transocean-the-debt-stress-test https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/transocean-the-debt-stress-test"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BwieAktien Whats actually interesting is that some industry insiders are saying the last ultra-deepwater rig humanity will ever need has already been built"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"If this business just stays stable for the next five years while putting $1 billion a year into buybacks the math gets violent. $mtch https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/match-group-is-it-a-buyr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/match-group-is-it-a-buyr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The offshore drilling monster is born. And its hungry. $rig $val https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/breaking-transocean-just-swallowedr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/breaking-transocean-just-swallowedr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"No new ultra-deepwater rigs are being built. None. Zero. The $RIG and $VAL merger has created the most powerful ultra-deepwater fleet in the world. The global ultra-deepwater fleet is about [--] rigs. Transocean has [--] ultra-deepwater rigs or roughly 37% of the existing fleet globally. Read that again. https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-now https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-now"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"RT @SweetLilBabyGee: Pretty incredible"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My core thesis is that offshore will be far less cyclical than it used to be. The boom and bust era was driven by one thing supply. New supply hit the water and crushed pricing. That is how you got short cycles and violent reversals. Today that mechanism is broken. For a decade no new ultra deepwater rigs have been built. The probability is that the existing fleet will actually continue to decline as rigs age. It is also a probability that the new Transocean owning more than one third of the global ultra-deepwater fleet will see a brutal rerating in the future. $rig $val Full write-up:"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Offshore is deeply misunderstood. Most offshore projects have breakevens at $30 $40 or 50$. At todays oil price levels many of these projects are highly attractive. In fact the current price environment can support further offshore development. Shale on the other hand typically needs $5060 oil to work sustainably. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022395577204646235 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022395577204646235"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@darkstarsats @PetjaYlitalo So yes there is some regulatory risk if they define a narrow drillship market. But given the global and mobile nature of the fleet its limited in my view"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Working on something big. The Bull Case for Transocean: From Debt Monster to Cash Flow King Fleet analysis. Debt schedule. Cash flow math. Rerating potential. Full breakdown coming soon. $rig $val $ne"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"AutoNation vs AutoZone: The Buyback Deathmatch Same game. Which buyback cannibal is deadlier I am grading this matchup on: - Capital allocation - Cash flow quality - Moats - Balance sheet risk - Valuation and buyback torque - Endgame catalysts Coming soon $azo $an"
X Link 2026-01-16T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"AutoNation vs AutoZone: The Buyback Deathmatch Same game. Which buyback cannibal is deadlier $azo vs $an https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/autonation-vs-autozone-the-buybackutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/autonation-vs-autozone-the-buybackutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-01-18T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If met coal ends soon then Alpha and Warrior should be dying businesses. They are not priced that way. Why Someone is wrong. $amr $hcc Full write up in comments below"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Replacing coal with hydrogen requires an electricity system roughly the size of the entire European Union. Today we are still a rounding error on that path. About [---] percent of the required buildout. $amr $hcc https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/is-met-coal-about-to-endutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/is-met-coal-about-to-endutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-01-22T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Coming soon. $amr $hcc $val $ath.to $rig"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Here is how met coal buying and selling typically works in practice for Warrior $hcc today. PLV is about $245 per tonne FOB Australia. Warriors Mine [--] product is the closest to Australian PLV. Mine [--] and Blue Creek are premium High Vol A products. Most deals are agreed on an index formula. You lock the rule today. Final price equals the average Argus PLV during the March [----] loading window plus a negotiated differential. In a tight low-vol market that differential can be near zero. The buyer pays the ocean freight. Simple math on one Panamax cargo. Cargo size is about [-----] tonnes. Assume"
X Link 2026-02-05T08:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"In this $rig post I break down: What Transocean actually bought by rig class plus backlog and synergies The step by step math for how leverage drops to 1.5x A conservative liquidation value framework for the [--] rig fleet versus todays market cap A side by side comparison of the [----] fleet vs the [----] fleet and why fewer rigs can mean more earning power Full write up in comments below. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021514962464612823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021514962464612823"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Why 1.5x Changes Everything At [--] to 5x Net Debt/EBITDA you are a levered offshore play. At 1.5x Completely different animal. That is when the re-rating happens. Index funds include you. Institutional capital flows in. Multiples expand. $rig $val https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/what-is-transocean-worth-nowr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/what-is-transocean-worth-nowr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@nativistconcern I was referring only to the Valaris fleet. Combined the two companies could easily have a fleet value in the $3540bn range depending on assumptions"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Q4. Prices down 16%. Net income up 20x. Cash cost crushed to $93. Record volumes. Most people will look at coal prices. Few will look at the cost curve. Thats where the story is. $hcc Full write-up: https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/warrior-met-coal-fourth-quarter-2025utm_source=activity_item https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/warrior-met-coal-fourth-quarter-2025utm_source=activity_item"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@theshy08746434 Thank you for the kind words. Im not Newton. I just try to think rationally and share what Im learning"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ZenJayCfa They need to pay down the debt over the next two years. If the market tightens [----] is possible"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@PeterGFBarr They need to pay down the debt over the next two years. After that I think we could be looking at close to [---] % of free cash flow being returned to shareholders"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@exchan_ge They need to pay down the debt over the next two years. After that I think we could be looking at close to [---] % of free cash flow being returned to shareholders"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JJanegle Yes first shale then COVID destroyed offshore. Now there are signs that shale is declining fast and the breakeven is around $60. That means all of this is actually favorable for offshore because offshore breakeven is below $50"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@peterdacreep I analyzed the debt and I dont think its a big problem especially not now with a $10B backlog. https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/transocean-the-debt-stress-test https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/transocean-the-debt-stress-test"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BobertBedford @duedillengence $1M+ dayrates on 10-year contracts with 50% paid upfront during construction while the terminals are already full. Sometimes I look at this and think maybe the last UDW rig humanity will ever need has already been built. :) $rig"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"If you were holding $VAL because you believed in the offshore upcycle congratulations you just got upgraded to the best seat in the house. But what does all of this actually mean for $rig shareholders https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/breaking-transocean-just-swallowedr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/breaking-transocean-just-swallowedr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just a reminder. In [----] Transocean $rig had a very strong fleet. That year they generated more than [--] billion in net income. The stock traded above [---] dollars. With the Valaris $val acquisition they will have an even stronger fleet than in [----]. I think it is not unrealistic for the company to earn [--] or even [--] billion in net income in a year. Transoceans market cap is around [--] billion. Crazy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020934029030416405 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020934029030416405"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:53Z [----] followers, 41K engagements

"You are paying $5.8 billion not in cash but in newly printed shares. In return you get a fleet I conservatively peg around $17 billion and you step into an industry leading combined backlog of roughly $10 billion. That backlog can practically pay down the debt on its own. And suddenly you are looking at roughly $40 billion in replacement value tied to the most powerful offshore drilling fleet in the world. $rig $val https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/what-is-transocean-worth-nowutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:29Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements

"There are zero new ultra-deepwater rigs being built. Zero. The global fleet is aging. The new Transocean will control more than one third of the global ultra-deepwater fleet. Read that again. The market is pricing Transocean like its [----]. It is not [----]. Full write-up on $rig and $val: https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-nowr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-nowr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:11Z [----] followers, 38.3K engagements

"Yesterday in my Warrior post I wrote about how high vol A met coal is trading at historically low prices relative to PLV and how the market should eventually rebalance. What just happened blew me away. Greenbrier Minerals LLC a subsidiary of Coronado Global Resources is idling seven mining operations and laying off [---] workers. That means they cannot survive at these prices so higher cost supply is getting pushed out of the market. Their output is mostly high vol met coal with some other mix on the side. This likely removes roughly [--] million tons of met coal supply. That is not small. And"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If I am right and the new $RIG can generate $3B of annual free cash flow in a base case and $46B in an optimistic case a rerating is possible. There are not many companies in the world that can produce that level of free cash flow. Look at $UBER $AMT $AMD $VRTX $MMM. They trade between $90B and $300B market caps. But offshore is hated. It cannot get premium multiples. I think that is fine. On the Q3 [----] earnings call the CFO said: Once leverage is reduced management intends to return capital primarily through share repurchases rather than dividends. A lower multiple means they can buy back"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The real blow-off moment for me on the investors call was that $HCC might actually take on debt to buy back shares. If prices were to decrease quite significantly to me if we have that cash on the balance sheet that would be an opportunity a real opportunity for us to take advantage of a buyback. So I think that would be a good situation that well look to do that. Dale Boyles CFO Full write up: https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/warrior-met-coal-fourth-quarter-2025utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-14T08:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BobertBedford @duedillengence Bob I agree. Human greed never disappears. It will happen again. But after 10x who cares. You could have five years with no new orders and then another five years before any new supply actually hits the water. It could be a 20x setup also"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This was the best earnings calls Ive listened to in a long time. An analyst asked the question: "The share price is below $86 today like I think you and I both think thats cheap. Why not start going now with the buyback and getting ahead of that before the stock gets more expensive I mean I think you think also shares that youre probably going to get higher why not go early on the buyback" Full write up is now live on Substack. $hcc $amr https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/warrior-met-coal-fourth-quarter-2025utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dilution usually kills the stock. This time it might buy the moat. Transocean plus Valaris. [--] rigs and about 40% of the worlds UDW fleet. I ran the cash flow debt timeline and price targets. Full write up: $rig $val https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromr=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If Transocean were a private company would you buy the whole thing for $12 billion if it's on track to generate $36 billion per year for you with a fleet replacement value north of $40+ billion And no one can replace it because zero new rigs are being built. Zero. Full breakdown is now live on Substack. $rig $val"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:05Z [----] followers, 19.8K engagements

"@Robbie200611 The beauty of investing in equities is that from time to time the market does things that make absolutely no sense. That is exactly why equities have created the greatest wealth in human history"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"No new ultra-deepwater rigs are being built. None. Zero. The $RIG and $VAL merger has created the most powerful ultra-deepwater fleet in the world. The global ultra-deepwater fleet is about [--] rigs. Transocean has [--] ultra-deepwater rigs or roughly 37% of the global ultra-deepwater fleet. Read that again. https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-now https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/what-is-transocean-worth-now"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"One of the beautiful things about investing in equities is that from time to time markets do things that make absolutely no sense. Thats exactly why stocks remain the greatest wealth creation tool in existence. Let me explain. In [----] Transocean operated a fleet of [---] rigs. Most of the fleet consisted of jackups which earned much lower dayrates. That year they reported $4.2 billion in net income. The stock traded close to $150. Fast forward to today. Following the pending merger with Valaris the combined company will have [--] rigs. [--] of those are jackups. The rest are high spec ultra"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:38Z [----] followers, 85.3K engagements

"My Substack channel :) Just kidding. Theres a long list of great books out there but at the core its actually simple. In cyclical industries you focus on supply. Go where supply is structurally tight or constrained. Thats coal offshore uranium copper. For framework and mental models: Howard Marks The Most Important Thing Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan Expectations Investing For commodities and trading cycles: Javier Blas and Jack Farchy The World for Sale Vince Beiser The World in a Grain For industry structure and the supply side: Daniel Yergin The Prize and The Quest Peter Tertzakian A"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Can Transocean $rig hit $150 again In [----] Transocean generated $4.2B of net income and $2.2B of FCF. The stock traded around $150. With the new fleet I would argue they can earn more than in [----]. But there is a catch. In [----] they had 320M shares outstanding. After the Valaris $val merger that number rises to 2.1B. Management is basically telling us they are taking dilution now so they can buy stock back later. Fast forward to [----]. Let's say most of the debt is paid down and the market is tight. Assume a strong year with $5B of FCF. Thats not unrealistic. You can hold me to that. Let's say"
X Link 2026-02-16T11:24Z [----] followers, 19.8K engagements

"Full breakdown: https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromr=1csrzf https://cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromr=1csrzf"
X Link 2026-02-16T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@nishant10a I built a scenario for the year 2030: https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/the-bull-case-for-transocean-fromutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-02-16T11:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Yesterday a day before the $CDLX earnings call over 50% voted the stock would go up. Today just [--] hours later one bad piece of news nearly 50% think it's going bankrupt. How can one update flip the entire narrative so drastically Are investors too emotional"
X Link 2025-08-07T19:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@formativeetf Yes and at the worst possible time - just when they were finally approaching profitability and scaling. But they still have many other ways to grow and scale. I dont think Amit couldve prevented this and hes doing a solid job. He deserves a chance"
X Link 2025-08-07T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@formativeetf Theyll move all advertisers to AmEx and co. offer even better deals while CRP / Ripple / CPG / non-FI businesses continue to grow. The hit is big and itll take time again but there are still plenty of opportunities ahead"
X Link 2025-08-07T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Cliff Sosin on the risk of banks like Chase offering advertising without $CDLX: Even if they did it themselves they would have 2050% fewer ads and high costs making it a losing proposition overall"
X Link 2025-08-12T11:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"The reasons are reduced reach and therefore fewer offers from advertisers loss of economies of scale high costs of developing and maintaining the technology and lower interest from ad agencies in learning and using a single banks platform"
X Link 2025-08-12T11:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Just a reminder for panicked $CDLX holders $CVNA hit $3.55 at peak pessimism. Since then its up more than 100x. Of course only for those who bought not sold"
X Link 2025-08-12T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"What is the intrinsic value of $CDLX according to Cliff Sosin $CDLX=competitive advantage TAM. Competitive advantage: a complete monopoly in the digital world with insight into $6T in annual transactions. TAM (total addressable market): around $100B. What number do we get"
X Link 2025-08-13T08:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Cliff Sosin on how $CDLX could go from $200M revenue to $20B in [--] years: Target enterprise clients Self-service platform (CRP) Growth in MAUs Higher engagement When you multiply all that you get extraordinarily large numbers not far from $META US revenue per MAU"
X Link 2025-08-13T08:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"I just dont see advertisers not taking the free money in the long term I dont see consumers not taking the free money in the long term and I dont see banks not connecting the two like water goes downhill. Cliff Sosin on the long-term scenario for $CDLX"
X Link 2025-08-13T09:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Cardlytics used to hire who they could afford not always top of market. Everyone contributes at different stages but as resources grew they could bring in talent previously out of reach. Cliff Sosin on $CDLX management"
X Link 2025-08-13T09:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Cliff Sosin on $CDLX potential: When you multiply all factors you get extraordinarily large numbers not far from $META US revenue per MAU. META US rev/MAU = $68 CDLX 250M [--] = $17B revenue $7B net income P/E [--] = $140B mc. Thats a 2333x for those buying today"
X Link 2025-08-13T13:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"New write-up on $CDLX: If youre willing to look beyond short-term fears you might be looking at one of the most undervalued opportunities in the entire world. https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/investing-in-anomalies-the-most-underratedr=1csrzf&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/investing-in-anomalies-the-most-underratedr=1csrzf&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-08-14T17:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$cdlx named Best Digital Ad Network at the [----] MarTech Breakthrough Awards beating 4000+ global entries. CLO is finally getting mainstream recognition"
X Link 2025-08-15T07:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Maybe just maybe were about to witness one of the wildest comebacks the market has ever seen. Made a few updates to my $CDLX Substack post. https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/investing-in-anomalies-the-most-underrated https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/investing-in-anomalies-the-most-underrated"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Interesting that Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons) bought 121k shares of $CDLX in May [----] at an average price of $1.73. Even though its a small position for them its worth noting"
X Link 2025-08-19T16:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Cliff Sosins CAS Investment Partners cut its $CDLX stake to 9.8%. Below 10% means hes no longer a Section [--] insider no more Form [--] filings. In other words: the market wont see his trades in real time anymore"
X Link 2025-08-20T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Were nearing a key inflection point for offshore drillers like $VAL and $NE. Utilization is already 85% and once it breaks 90% day-rates tend to accelerate. A short soft patch may appear over the next few quarters but the tightening that follows could reshape the entire cycle"
X Link 2025-10-07T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"New analysis coming soon: AutoNation $an The market sees a dying business. I see a cannibal that could soon eat nearly all remaining shares outstanding. The full deep dive will be available to paid members soon. https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/8b3dcec4-0443-43ce-ab17-a39751676da4utm_source=drip_email https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/8b3dcec4-0443-43ce-ab17-a39751676da4utm_source=drip_email"
X Link 2025-10-12T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Buying a cyclical after several years of record earnings and when the P/E ratio has hit a low point is a proven method for losing half your money in a short period of time. - Peter Lynch $amr $val $athof https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/q3-earnings-preview-athabasca-valaris https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/q3-earnings-preview-athabasca-valaris https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/q3-earnings-preview-athabasca-valaris https://sandrostprodukcija.substack.com/p/q3-earnings-preview-athabasca-valaris"
X Link 2025-10-16T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Important $val Valaris update: DNB Carnegie just confirmed that Saudi Aramco plans to reactivate [--] to [--] suspended jackups with the first ones potentially coming back in [----]. The biggest winner here is Valaris since about 41% of its assets are tied to jackups. Thats why Valaris jumped about 7% today. Next Ill be working on a deep dive on Transocean $RIG the only driller that made it through [----] without going bankrupt and now holds the largest most modern fleet in the world. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981410711072100368 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981410711072100368"
X Link 2025-10-23T17:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Athabasca Oil reports Q3 earnings today after market close Full breakdown coming tomorrow. $ath.to $athof"
X Link 2025-10-29T14:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Also a very strong Q3 from Athabasca despite a slight delay in the release: $157M FCF 34M shares repurchased YTD. Fully on track to return 100% of FCF in [----]. $ath.to $athof"
X Link 2025-10-30T06:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"ATHABASCA OIL Q3 [----] RESULTS Strong Q3 from Athabasca Oil the boring heavy oil producer that just keeps executing. Full Post in the comment below $ath.to $athof"
X Link 2025-10-30T10:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The oil debate just got interesting $oil $athof $ath.to Full analysis in the comments"
X Link 2025-11-02T06:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"What happens to met coal prices when a Ukraine-sized buyer turns urgent and price-insensitive in an already tight market Link in the comments. $amr $hcc $metcoal"
X Link 2025-12-17T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Coal doing coal things. $amr $hcc"
X Link 2025-12-19T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Check out my new post This was his first 20x and it came from a coal company. Free link in the comments. $amr $hcc $coal"
X Link 2025-12-21T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This thesis can be extended if oil prices fall. But lower oil prices wont bring new Ultra-Deepwater rigs to market. Thats exactly why the focus should be on companies with a Ferrari offshore fleet. Link in commentary below. $rig $val $ne $offshore"
X Link 2025-12-23T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Full write up coming soon. $AN $EBAY $SYF $DDS $MDRX $JACK $MUSA $TEX $DVA $AZO $AMR $AMP $ORLY $DPZ $QCOM $HRB $LOW $CHKP $UNP $CSX $CTXS $YUM $NTAP $TDC $V $AMAT $JNPR"
X Link 2025-12-27T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Full deep dive is coming soon. If the setup holds the real fireworks start after most people think the party is over. Happy New Year. $azo"
X Link 2025-12-28T11:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Let me remind you that in [----] the market lost about 10% of available coal for Western buyers due to the war in Ukraine and floods in Australia so we saw prices of $670 per tonne in March [----]. $amr $hcc https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/the-end-of-the-war-in-ukraine-whatutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/sandrostprodukcija/p/the-end-of-the-war-in-ukraine-whatutm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-01-04T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Warrior traded above $100 in after-hours trading. $hcc"
X Link 2026-01-09T22:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Its very hard to go bankrupt if you dont have any debt. Peter Lynch Transocean has about $6 billion of debt. Its contracted backlog is roughly $6.7 billion. Cash on the balance sheet is $1 billion. The only question is time. Can the backlog turn into cash before the maturity wall hits This post is a stress test. Three variables decide the outcome. Coming soon $rig https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014188014574973046 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014188014574973046"
X Link 2026-01-22T04:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This post changed everything for me. [--] new subscribers. 3k views. My most successful piece ever. Today I'm making it free for everyone. $soc https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/a-25-billion-asset-trading-for-600r=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/cannibalstocks/p/a-25-billion-asset-trading-for-600r=1csrzf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2026-01-24T18:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Why steel is so cyclical Steel is not something people buy for fun. Steel is what you buy when you build big things. Homes roads factories ships cars. When the economy is strong lots of projects start at the same time so steel demand jumps. When companies and governments cut spending they cut those big projects first so orders can disappear fast. Inventories make it look even more extreme. In a boom buyers stock up because they fear higher prices. When prices turn down they stop buying and use what is in storage. Demand can look like it collapsed even if end use did not fall that much. Steel"
X Link 2026-01-27T08:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If you are hunting for multi baggers you look for cannibals or deeply undervalued players that can be turnarounds or leveraged businesses the market has written off because it thinks the debt is a fatal problem. I think Transocean is all of that. $rig Full writte up in comments below. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016449065504977151 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016449065504977151"
X Link 2026-01-28T09:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Multibaggers companies that go 50x 100x sometimes even 1000x can look very different on the surface. But there are also simple frameworks that help spot them early. One of the easiest frameworks is cannibals. These are companies that aggressively buy back their own shares. Typically they pay no dividends. Instead they plow back close to 100% of their cash flow and sometimes even more than 100% into buybacks. And something very unusual almost magical and genuinely nonlinear happens when you keep doing buybacks at that pace over a few decades. $amr And when the market is bleeding like today it"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Boom $amr $hcc"
X Link 2026-01-14T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Alpha Met Resources $amr investment thesis explained In its latest [--] K AMR reports roughly [---] million tons of reserves and a bit more than [---] million tons of resources. Reserves and resources are not the same. Reserves are economically proven and ready to be mined under current assumptions. Resources describe the broader geology in the ground. A large portion may never be economic or may require new permits new mines higher capex and higher coal prices. Resources can also be materially larger than what is currently reported but lets use [---] million tons as a working base case. If you take"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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