@ZhouJaron Jaron Zhou

There is no mention of Jaron Zhou in the provided tweets. The tweets appear to be discussing various US elections, including mayoral, gubernatorial, and attorney general races, with a focus on results, polling, and prediction markets.

Engagements: [------] #

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[--] Year [----------] +590%

Mentions: [--] #

[--] Week [--] -12%
[--] Month [---] +36%
[--] Months [---] +3,900%
[--] Year [---] +609%

Followers: [-------] #

[--] Week [-----] +2.70%
[--] Month [-----] +11%
[--] Months [-----] +535%
[--] Year [-----] +584%

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Social Influence

Social category influence countries celebrities finance travel destinations us election technology brands stocks social networks gaming musicians

Social topic influence dems, kalshi, in the, jersey, supreme court, mamdani, gop, york city, new york city, this is

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Why is Elon musk promoting dogecoin during this campaign launch lol"
X Link 2023-05-24T23:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I wonder how much of this is people not really feeling that the rate of inflation has slowed but instead look at wow eggs used to cost X now they cost Y which is more bc thats not going down without deflation"
X Link 2023-09-08T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaxesHate If DeSantis endorsed her would that move the needle by enough"
X Link 2023-09-19T16:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I think the question is how severe are those concerns Like Im sure a lot of ppl are concerned about Bidens age but would still vote for him not sure how much of that is true for Trump"
X Link 2023-09-25T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Just the fact that these shifts cancel each other out is a great indication of how much of the state is exurban / rural [----] Senate - [----] AG swing is IMO pretty informative of recent Ohio electoral changes. In both instances the Republican candidate won by [----] points. https://t.co/tDILpGwxqL [----] Senate - [----] AG swing is IMO pretty informative of recent Ohio electoral changes. In both instances the Republican candidate won by [----] points. https://t.co/tDILpGwxqL"
X Link 2023-09-26T17:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"What is the backstory like how did they not know his history until the internet pointed it out"
X Link 2023-09-26T17:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"LMAO JUST IN: [----] presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October [--] in Pennsylvania. https://t.co/ULpcfxXAvz JUST IN: [----] presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October [--] in Pennsylvania. https://t.co/ULpcfxXAvz"
X Link 2023-09-29T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Why is RFK Jr a Democrat like what are his liberal policies"
X Link 2023-10-06T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@stclairashley Uh are people regularly crossing the northern border"
X Link 2023-10-08T02:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@rich_goldberg What is Davids sling"
X Link 2023-10-11T16:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@TaxesHate Whats unfortunate is that Biden cant exactly make grocery prices come down in terms of deflation so if the assessment of the economy is based on are prices higher than they were before then theres no way he can recover"
X Link 2023-10-25T14:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate How would lower IR from the fed result in less inflation Also how much of this would decrease inflation vs lead to deflation Actual macro questions bc I thought the only way to deflate prices was recession/depression"
X Link 2023-10-25T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I dont get his strategy of not even acknowledging hes running against Biden hes pulling a page from the DeSantis original playbook and its not gonna go well for him either"
X Link 2023-10-28T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Imagine having this around nyc"
X Link 2023-10-31T00:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This is what I suspected people want deflation rather than slowed inflation"
X Link 2023-11-07T16:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Im glad to see that despite far right efforts Ukraine is still seen favorably and Russia unfavorably"
X Link 2023-11-20T02:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Wtf is happening in California and New York"
X Link 2023-11-20T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I literally dont understand why Dems arent trying to get tougher on the border asap"
X Link 2023-12-19T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The Houthi fans want them to win so badly but its not not happening and their cope is hilarious Its hilarious that the only things they have to cope about are years old images and videos. Its hilarious that the only things they have to cope about are years old images and videos"
X Link 2024-01-13T03:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"These ppl are crazy and should also be prosecuted if they breach govt property at the same time I shudder to think what would happen if they somehow got into a shouting match with the Jan [--] rioters Brb going to turn on CNN to watch coverage of this.oh wait hahahaha they arent covering it. Brb going to turn on CNN to watch coverage of this.oh wait hahahaha they arent covering it"
X Link 2024-01-14T04:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Good on him for doing this at an Abbott event as opposed to a Bernie one tbh This guy found out the hard way that he wasnt in some deep blue enclave. This guy found out the hard way that he wasnt in some deep blue enclave"
X Link 2024-01-15T00:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I really dont like his speech giving style idk what it is but it feels super forced What does a Tim Scott endorsement do in New Hampshire lol https://t.co/bzLpaPQOWY What does a Tim Scott endorsement do in New Hampshire lol https://t.co/bzLpaPQOWY"
X Link 2024-01-20T03:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaxesHate So did the Dems in [----] lmao"
X Link 2024-01-24T01:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Haley should stay in at least as long as Dean Phillips stays in lmao She should stay in. https://t.co/suvqeDOf9X She should stay in. https://t.co/suvqeDOf9X"
X Link 2024-01-24T15:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@umichvoter Its crazy that ppl wrote in trump"
X Link 2024-01-24T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LukeDAlbert Ive always heard its more blue collar but regardless I guess they see Dean Phillips as being to the left of Biden"
X Link 2024-01-25T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@atticusgoat1 Im excited for the movie but also afraid it might inspire some ppl lol"
X Link 2024-01-25T22:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelPruser I was gonna say a drop of only 32% for a largely uncontested race would be pretty crazy actually"
X Link 2024-02-04T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaxesHate The from other countries is crazy I saw a documentary about all these Chinese ppl who are crossing via Mexico now"
X Link 2024-02-07T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Yea thats very fair I think its also interesting that in [----] like NCs senate and Supreme Court races were basically closer than all of Georgias races besides the senate. I also dk how migration to the states has varied over the past [--] years but I know NC is growing fast"
X Link 2024-02-21T15:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I cant believe these ppl r now ambivalent or even cheering a trump win simply bc they dont think Biden and Dems have done enough like wut Oh I didn't realize MSNBC did a panel in Michigan https://t.co/9mR6LNrqlo Oh I didn't realize MSNBC did a panel in Michigan https://t.co/9mR6LNrqlo"
X Link 2024-02-23T05:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I rly dont see how trump can lose over 20% of the gop primary electorate and still win a general election Wow. 59% of Nikki Haley voters in SC will NOT vote for Donald Trump if he becomes the Republican nominee according to Fox News exit poll. Republicans against Trump. https://t.co/sZ0jRakEcy Wow. 59% of Nikki Haley voters in SC will NOT vote for Donald Trump if he becomes the Republican nominee according to Fox News exit poll. Republicans against Trump. https://t.co/sZ0jRakEcy"
X Link 2024-02-25T04:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@samuelhcarter Oh ok so its a specific finance hiring complaint and not a general complaint like Harvard grads arent hard workers Also curious to know which schools or backgrounds he has had the most success with hiring"
X Link 2024-04-03T03:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"So. Her family is likely Hamas leadership Bc who else can afford that nice of a place in Gaza A Palestinian girl shares a video of her familys home before and after the Israeli ongoing onslaught on Gaza. https://t.co/V58Zh37eXw A Palestinian girl shares a video of her familys home before and after the Israeli ongoing onslaught on Gaza. https://t.co/V58Zh37eXw"
X Link 2024-04-10T03:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Ive been saying for a while Joe Biden has specific issues and dem results in special elections cant capture that In this poll Joe Biden is running [--] points behind congressional Democrats among 18-29 year olds. Trump [--] Biden [--] Kennedy [--]. It's probably noise on some level but uh. polling data is piling up pointing toward Biden having a problem with young voters. https://t.co/MKZEkxLMVy In this poll Joe Biden is running [--] points behind congressional Democrats among 18-29 year olds. Trump [--] Biden [--] Kennedy [--]. It's probably noise on some level but uh. polling data is piling up pointing"
X Link 2024-04-16T11:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ElectsWorld wtf"
X Link 2024-04-16T23:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Why did Joe Bidens approval plummet in summer [----] Bc of how Monmouth releases their polls we might get their h2h stand-in tomorrow or next week 🤪 Bc of how Monmouth releases their polls we might get their h2h stand-in tomorrow or next week 🤪"
X Link 2024-04-24T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"🤦🏻♂🤦🏻♂🤦🏻♂ unfortunately its now just hip to hate Joe Biden"
X Link 2024-05-02T01:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dougboneparth This money is absolutely not all going to the rager"
X Link 2024-05-02T12:43Z [----] followers, 40.5K engagements

"@TaxesHate wtfif you can lab grow meat thats healthier or that the US isnt even producing why not"
X Link 2024-05-02T17:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate The question is whats the pattern to where RFk helps vs hurts"
X Link 2024-05-07T20:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RepMikeCollins wtf"
X Link 2024-05-08T21:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Bruh have these people at the school never heard of like a Dead Sea mud mask lmao"
X Link 2024-05-09T16:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate @ComradeDoyIe US history really washed over how large the isolationist movement was before pearl harbor"
X Link 2024-05-10T19:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@baseballot If Phil Scott tan for senate could he win"
X Link 2024-05-11T05:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"wtf they should be campaigning like theyre [--] points behind even if they think theyre ahead "I can't possibly be losing." Almost Trumpian in its denial of reality. "I can't possibly be losing." Almost Trumpian in its denial of reality"
X Link 2024-05-14T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The funny thing is this fits with a Trump +1 national environment like the state polls are not showing Biden being especially weak in the sun belt tbh more that hes stronger in the rust belt than one might expect Trump has a 5-pt lead over Biden in AZ and a [--] pt lead in FL. https://t.co/gyQRQRZTiL https://t.co/QruBEdFKGI Trump has a 5-pt lead over Biden in AZ and a [--] pt lead in FL. https://t.co/gyQRQRZTiL https://t.co/QruBEdFKGI"
X Link 2024-05-19T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@What46HasDone Its almost like their North Star is not helping Gaza but signaling virtue and hating Joe Biden and other ppl who actually get stuff done"
X Link 2024-06-04T15:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@bluestein I saw this as Yves Saint Laurent tbh"
X Link 2024-06-12T15:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Both Wisconsin and Virginia tied lmao 📊 Wisconsin GE: @JLPartnersPolls 🟦 Biden: 44% 🟥 Trump: 44% 🟨 RFK Jr: 5% Undecided: 7% #145 (1.6/3.0) 6/5-10 [---] LV 4.3% https://t.co/hzzKOe9Ws4 https://t.co/dYx9jhTzr8 📊 Wisconsin GE: @JLPartnersPolls 🟦 Biden: 44% 🟥 Trump: 44% 🟨 RFK Jr: 5% Undecided: 7% #145 (1.6/3.0) 6/5-10 [---] LV 4.3% https://t.co/hzzKOe9Ws4 https://t.co/dYx9jhTzr8"
X Link 2024-06-14T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"In my mind Labour should definitely been at 39-40% of the vote but in the final days (and the polling trajectory shows this) they def bled votes to greens independents and lib Dems"
X Link 2024-07-05T08:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Lovely how even in a landslide victory the specter of the far left and far right looms"
X Link 2024-07-05T08:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RealPData @TaxesHate Ppl always do this but why isnt anyone combining Labour with the greens"
X Link 2024-07-06T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ethanckelly @Joka1230 I do think that 1) lots of congresspeople fear going public bc of retaliation from the White House 2) the fact that theres ANY electeds who are even being ambiguous/uncommitted about who the nominee should be is a giant warning sign and 3) the dem base is def p split on this"
X Link 2024-07-08T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I wouldnt bet against Pelosi New: Pelosi is working privately to put pressure on Biden to reconsider his spot as [----] nominee. House Dems tell @thehill Pelosi is talking w/ lawmakers & expressing concerns re: Biden to pump breaks on rubber-stamping his nomination. w/ @RealMikeLillis https://t.co/BMtFDy4TSi New: Pelosi is working privately to put pressure on Biden to reconsider his spot as [----] nominee. House Dems tell @thehill Pelosi is talking w/ lawmakers & expressing concerns re: Biden to pump breaks on rubber-stamping his nomination. w/ @RealMikeLillis https://t.co/BMtFDy4TSi"
X Link 2024-07-11T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate I think they went for Dems by [--] points in [----] Altho the exact age range may have been different"
X Link 2024-07-25T12:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Note that this includes any RNC and Post-assassination attempt fundraising bumps NEW: Trump and his joint committees raised $138.7 million last month. Obviously that's going to be less than Harris. Trump says he has $327 million COH. https://t.co/SjHKIvys25 NEW: Trump and his joint committees raised $138.7 million last month. Obviously that's going to be less than Harris. Trump says he has $327 million COH. https://t.co/SjHKIvys25"
X Link 2024-08-01T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I rly love that Dems are posting crowd size videos now too haha Heres another look at this crowd. People we spoke to saying they traveled across state lines to attend the rally for @KamalaHarris. Many expressing excitement to hear from @GovTimWalz as well. https://t.co/ShVhs75khK Heres another look at this crowd. People we spoke to saying they traveled across state lines to attend the rally for @KamalaHarris. Many expressing excitement to hear from @GovTimWalz as well. https://t.co/ShVhs75khK"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ferniesbookclub She would be much more receptive than Donald Trump and those are the only two realistic options"
X Link 2024-08-08T15:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The far right cares more about aesthetics than actual achievement The United States of America leads the world with [---] Olympic medals. Meanwhile Norway is in 48th place tied with Guatemala with two. Otherwise great point https://t.co/o3ItqKeBdI The United States of America leads the world with [---] Olympic medals. Meanwhile Norway is in 48th place tied with Guatemala with two. Otherwise great point https://t.co/o3ItqKeBdI"
X Link 2024-08-09T12:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"lol remember when trump made fun of DeSantis for the X glitches and crashes oh the irony"
X Link 2024-08-13T00:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@IAPolls2022 @CookPolitical Ok so the North Carolina sample def had some issues lol"
X Link 2024-08-15T10:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@MG_Montella Id take that"
X Link 2024-08-15T22:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@krazgreinetz I see this as proof that Harris needs to convince voters shell lower prices"
X Link 2024-08-18T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@mountainwesttax What happens when you lose those unrealized capital gains when the marker goes down Do u get all the races u paid back"
X Link 2024-08-21T16:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@StatisticUrban I feel like safety is def based on more factors than murder lol"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@cameron_easley @jnewt_maps @MorningConsult Wait so they didnt poll Montana"
X Link 2024-09-09T22:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Zprtr1 Wisconsin has had some big polling errors in presidential years"
X Link 2024-10-09T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I will say given the population and demographic trends here Harris holding steady from Biden wouldnt be that bad New Davis (D) internal poll for NC-01 (Biden +1) Davis (D) [--] Buckhourt (R) [--] Trump [--] Harris [--] Stein [--] Robinson [--] New Davis (D) internal poll for NC-01 (Biden +1) Davis (D) [--] Buckhourt (R) [--] Trump [--] Harris [--] Stein [--] Robinson 38"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"So why didnt Harris go to the Al smith dinner"
X Link 2024-10-18T13:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"So uh can we even agree on whether the rust belt or sun belt is further right this year lol BREAKING: Atlas Intel which was the most accurate national poll in [----] has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by three points. 🔴 Trump: 51% (+3) 🔵 Harris: 48% Their swing state polling is where things get interesting. PA: Trump: +3.3 MI: Trump: +2.8 GA: Trump: +1.4 AZ: https://t.co/BiFjsCzNS6 BREAKING: Atlas Intel which was the most accurate national poll in [----] has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by three points. 🔴 Trump: 51% (+3) 🔵 Harris: 48% Their swing state polling is where things get"
X Link 2024-10-19T22:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Signs of low Dem turnout are so weird bc Dems have consistently been logging high enthusiasm rates in polls but if they actually arent turning out I hope the Harris campaign sees this and is working overtime to get them to the polls"
X Link 2024-10-23T02:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I dont know if this is playing a role at all but I do believe Trump +1 is an incredibly safe number for the pollsters to put out if Trump wins by more at least they got the leader right and if Harris wins its well within the margin of error and they get less flak for that 📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: Emerson 🟥 Trump: 49% 🟦 Harris: 48% With leaners 🟥 Trump: 51% 🟦 Harris: 49% PA Senate 🟦 Casey (inc): 47% 🟥 McCormick: 46% @RealClearWorld [---] LV 10/21-22 https://t.co/F9JOSfYarE https://t.co/xQ2rVMreHH 📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: Emerson 🟥 Trump: 49% 🟦 Harris: 48% With leaners 🟥 Trump: 51% 🟦 Harris: 49%"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate @jeremybhughes I guess this explains it its a low propensity voter turnout problem for Dems"
X Link 2024-10-25T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@umichvoter It seems like Dems May have a black turnout issue nationwide"
X Link 2024-10-25T00:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@thehill Hmmm trusting a Romney advisor on reading how the presidential election will go lol"
X Link 2024-10-25T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Its either that or trump wins Nevada by like [--] points"
X Link 2024-10-29T17:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Biden should have had relative strength here with the whole Scranton Joe thing 🚨It's here The final @InsideElections/@NoblePredictive House battleground poll of [----] - in Pennsylvania's 8th District. House Cartwright (D-inc) [--] Bresnahan (R) [--] Pres Trump [--] Harris [--] Senate Casey (D-inc) [--] McCormick (R) [--] 10/23-25 [---] LVs https://t.co/XURvNZ8BJd 🚨It's here The final @InsideElections/@NoblePredictive House battleground poll of [----] - in Pennsylvania's 8th District. House Cartwright (D-inc) [--] Bresnahan (R) [--] Pres Trump [--] Harris [--] Senate Casey (D-inc) [--] McCormick (R) [--] 10/23-25 406"
X Link 2024-10-29T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@blockedfreq @SusquehannaPR Theres gonna be a lot more Eday voters tho like if trump wins them by [--] that more than counters the [--] point margin among vbm"
X Link 2024-10-30T17:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Does anyone know if cnns election night broadcast is free lol"
X Link 2024-10-31T11:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Its funny bc based just on polling Id be pretty bullish for Dems in NV given they (at least historically) tend to over perform polls NEVADA POLL with @RealClearWorld [----] Presidential Election Harris 48% Trump 47% 2% someone else 2% undecided https://t.co/xI0MwKouw3 NEVADA POLL with @RealClearWorld [----] Presidential Election Harris 48% Trump 47% 2% someone else 2% undecided https://t.co/xI0MwKouw3"
X Link 2024-11-01T12:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate I think Im a vacuum yes but I think if Haley was the GOP nominee RFK stays in and tacks to the maga base"
X Link 2024-11-01T22:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Without RFk lol with him she was down actually"
X Link 2024-11-01T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Also very high chance trump endorsed RFK if he lost the primary tbh"
X Link 2024-11-01T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I encourage all Magas to prove their is no voter fraud by not voting Mindy Robinson a top MAGA influencer who lives in Nevada says shes not voting in order to show that theres voter fraud. I'm not voting I want to see if my ballot gets counted while I didn't do anything. I want to see it magically show up as counted. Its the only https://t.co/c6y2ascqM1 Mindy Robinson a top MAGA influencer who lives in Nevada says shes not voting in order to show that theres voter fraud. I'm not voting I want to see if my ballot gets counted while I didn't do anything. I want to see it magically show up as"
X Link 2024-11-05T21:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The issue w Eday turnout reports is very rarely do we get live updates on turnout in like rural counties in states like PA and Michigan like tell me what its looking like in Alcona or Juniata county It took a lot of calling around and checking on precincts because PA is very unfriendly about ED turnout reports but as far as Philadelphia is concerned they are pretty much at [----] turnout about now. Solid chance they get to 70% overall which is bonkers. It took a lot of calling around and checking on precincts because PA is very unfriendly about ED turnout reports but as far as Philadelphia is"
X Link 2024-11-05T22:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Well theres no electoral college / popular vote separation this time most likely"
X Link 2024-11-06T08:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Also North Carolina has actually tended left significantly this time Trump doing worse there than in 2016"
X Link 2024-11-06T15:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ppavnr NYt is slow on this"
X Link 2024-11-06T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@StatisticUrban Hawaii"
X Link 2024-11-06T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Whoa what happened in Michigan It just tightened a ton for Harris (obv not enough to change anything) and Slotkin has a much more comfortable lead now"
X Link 2024-11-06T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The NYt website is going crazy in Michigan rn"
X Link 2024-11-06T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JamesSurowiecki Dems didnt abandon them but they prob did make them feel condescended to or otherwise feel bad about themselves and that mattered more"
X Link 2024-11-07T05:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Dems do need more partisan new media infrastructure but the whole point and appeal of Joe Rogan is that hes not that explicitly partisan all the time Democrats need their own Joe Rogan. We had our own Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in [----] @ryangrim & @mehdirhasan https://t.co/qsOjcuGqzl Democrats need their own Joe Rogan. We had our own Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in [----] @ryangrim & @mehdirhasan https://t.co/qsOjcuGqzl"
X Link 2024-11-07T06:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Dems need to figure out wtf is going on in these suburbs On Tuesday Democrat Suhas Subramanyam narrowly won Virginia's 10th CD by [--] points. This district was unexpectedly close. However it was only [--] points closer than when Hung Cao unsuccessfully challenged Jennifer Wexton in [----]. Biden won this seat by [--] and McAuliffe by [--]. https://t.co/sYqKRw5Dq8 On Tuesday Democrat Suhas Subramanyam narrowly won Virginia's 10th CD by [--] points. This district was unexpectedly close. However it was only [--] points closer than when Hung Cao unsuccessfully challenged Jennifer Wexton in [----]. Biden won this"
X Link 2024-11-07T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Dems netting 40-50k out of Henry county is gonna go such a long way I love rapidly diversifying suburbs The next time there is a normal environment these places are going to go absolutely nuts https://t.co/OEYQdpzxOQ I love rapidly diversifying suburbs The next time there is a normal environment these places are going to go absolutely nuts https://t.co/OEYQdpzxOQ"
X Link 2024-11-13T01:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@fat_ugly_rat Carson city is trending left"
X Link 2024-11-14T05:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fascinating did anyone do better than Stein anywhere lol [--] Dems won council of state races outside of the Governors race here in NC and with slightly different coalitions. Jackson ran best in WNC and Charlotte Green in the Triad Marshall in much of the rural East and Hunt in many places throughout the state including Lumbee areas. https://t.co/o8yeyVYZMS [--] Dems won council of state races outside of the Governors race here in NC and with slightly different coalitions. Jackson ran best in WNC and Charlotte Green in the Triad Marshall in much of the rural East and Hunt in many places throughout"
X Link 2024-11-20T01:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CA_Commissioner Mills is not that popular tho"
X Link 2024-12-03T02:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaxesHate @matt_blackwell Yeah its pretty reductive and while not the case everywhere its definitely true that smart ppl r popular a lot of places (also look at college so lol many ppl who are all three)"
X Link 2024-12-27T04:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@samuelhcarter @Saraht0n1n A good or bad score is entirely context dependent tbh like on someones goals"
X Link 2024-12-29T04:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Lyft also needs to be bought tbh"
X Link 2025-01-03T02:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate Electric trucks could be a market (esp since the cybertruck is a bit niche) but they have to compete with other automakers in that space"
X Link 2025-01-04T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TaxesHate @MassJumbo I would def say so stereotype there is the recent frat bro grad kinda vibe from my experience"
X Link 2025-01-08T05:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaxesHate That Zuckerberg has gone MAGA"
X Link 2025-01-14T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Best part about having parents keyed in on WeChat was hearing about over a month ago lol DeepSeeks first reasoning model has arrived - over 25x cheaper than OpenAIs o1 Highlights from our initial benchmarking of DeepSeek R1: ➤ Trades blows with OpenAIs o1 across our eval suite to score the second highest in Artificial Analysis Quality Index ever ➤ Priced on https://t.co/DrQJNYJHpF DeepSeeks first reasoning model has arrived - over 25x cheaper than OpenAIs o1 Highlights from our initial benchmarking of DeepSeek R1: ➤ Trades blows with OpenAIs o1 across our eval suite to score the second"
X Link 2025-01-24T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I do think its a bad sign that even with Steve king on the ballot in the 4th and a blue wave Dems only won the popular vote by [--] in Iowa Biggest headfake maybe ever https://t.co/rcMNzqlPtf Biggest headfake maybe ever https://t.co/rcMNzqlPtf"
X Link 2025-02-03T15:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Damn trumps approval fell quick there 📊 [----] Virginia Governor GE 🟦 Spanberger: 39% 🟥 Earle-Sears: 24% 🟨 Other: 4% --- Undecided: 32% Job Approval Gov. Youngkin: 53-39 (+14) Pres. Trump: 37-59 (-22) Roanoke College - #32 (2.6/3.0) 2/17-20 n=690 D35/R27 4.66% https://t.co/tEyAKztk9Y https://t.co/VjPNKbK1re 📊 [----] Virginia Governor GE 🟦 Spanberger: 39% 🟥 Earle-Sears: 24% 🟨 Other: 4% --- Undecided: 32% Job Approval Gov. Youngkin: 53-39 (+14) Pres. Trump: 37-59 (-22) Roanoke College - #32 (2.6/3.0) 2/17-20 n=690 D35/R27 4.66% https://t.co/tEyAKztk9Y https://t.co/VjPNKbK1re"
X Link 2025-02-25T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Casablanca shirt but also the Brunello pants lol aint no way we cut medicaid and housing assistance so jeff bezos could buy this shirt https://t.co/DnLAjPuSSl aint no way we cut medicaid and housing assistance so jeff bezos could buy this shirt https://t.co/DnLAjPuSSl"
X Link 2025-02-27T03:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Gutted like a halibut floating in San Francisco Bay A sharp sharp knife to Schumers gut A sharp sharp knife to Schumers gut"
X Link 2025-03-19T13:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Why are the Korean Gen X so liberal when the demographic is consistently the most conservative in the U.S. Exit poll results by age and gender: For each age group top bar is men and bottom bar is women https://t.co/pQtAiejmJr Exit poll results by age and gender: For each age group top bar is men and bottom bar is women https://t.co/pQtAiejmJr"
X Link 2025-06-04T04:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LandonExists What about San Diego lol"
X Link 2025-06-16T05:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"More popular with the gop lmaooo Some new statewide numbers on @SenFettermanPA courtesy of @SusquehannaPR. 🟢 Approve: 41% 🔴 Disapprove: 37% 🟡 Dont Know: 22% Amongst Parties: 🔵 DEM: 40% approve / 39% disapprove 🔴 GOP: 45% approve / 37% disapprove Bonus: 43/48 underwater in Philly. [---] LVs 6/17-6/21 Some new statewide numbers on @SenFettermanPA courtesy of @SusquehannaPR. 🟢 Approve: 41% 🔴 Disapprove: 37% 🟡 Dont Know: 22% Amongst Parties: 🔵 DEM: 40% approve / 39% disapprove 🔴 GOP: 45% approve / 37% disapprove Bonus: 43/48 underwater in Philly. [---] LVs 6/17-6/21"
X Link 2025-06-25T01:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Why is Mamdani doing noticeably better in Staten Island and Bronx eday vote lol"
X Link 2025-06-25T01:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@StatisticUrban Cuomo was also supposed to be up like 30+ with black voters"
X Link 2025-06-25T04:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I wish they added in an over $500000 piece bc Cuomo did win the upper east side for example Champagne socialism is the future of Dem primaries I guess lol https://t.co/3qmId8WkIW Champagne socialism is the future of Dem primaries I guess lol https://t.co/3qmId8WkIW"
X Link 2025-06-25T16:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Is this also where Versace had their show with Dua Lipa Incomprehensible levels of locked in https://t.co/GiElrvERXe Incomprehensible levels of locked in https://t.co/GiElrvERXe"
X Link 2025-07-01T15:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I like this just for that San Diego part This guy compares Major US Cities to fast food restaurants and it's insanely accurate https://t.co/P5CSNmIxqg This guy compares Major US Cities to fast food restaurants and it's insanely accurate https://t.co/P5CSNmIxqg"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Wow look Dems being willing to play hardball is already provoking some action NEW: Some swing district Republicans object to Texas redistricting plan as Democrats threaten to retaliate Reps. KILEY (CA) + LAWLER (NY) say they'll offer bills to slap federal limits on gerrymandering a rarity as Rs have thwarted such ideas for years. https://t.co/arcDeqNEbp NEW: Some swing district Republicans object to Texas redistricting plan as Democrats threaten to retaliate Reps. KILEY (CA) + LAWLER (NY) say they'll offer bills to slap federal limits on gerrymandering a rarity as Rs have thwarted such ideas"
X Link 2025-08-05T04:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"R +10 in [----] election in this district Dems will flip it tonight with another Iowa special election overperformance thats in the [--] point ballpark - potential implications for 2026"
X Link 2025-08-27T01:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ndrewpignanelli Real the elder statesman vibes"
X Link 2025-09-05T14:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresvisit/foreign-trips-by-the-potus#KXPRESVISIT-26 https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresvisit/foreign-trips-by-the-potus#KXPRESVISIT-26"
X Link 2025-09-06T22:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@StatisticUrban Dark horse states that each party has potential in and need to keep an eye on: Kansas for the Dems and Rhode Island for the GOP"
X Link 2025-09-07T05:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Today (Sept 8) is Election Day in Norway heres a quick recap of where things stand going into an election that will determine all [---] members of their parliament and their next Prime Minister: For a long time the ruling Labour Party (last elected in 2021) looked like it would get crushed polling in third behind the center right Conservatives and the populist right Progress Party. Just like in Canada and Australia though Trumps election win blunted the right wings momentum and drove a rallying effect around the left-wing government. But it was Jens Stoltenberg (the wildly popular former"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:10Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements

"Wasnt he also the one who got into the physical tussle w Elon Musk At a private dinner with Trump allies last week Treasury Secretary. Scott Bessent threatened to punch housing finance official Bill Pulte in the fing face Politico reports. Bessent had heard from several people that Pulte was badmouthing him to Trump. Why the fck are you https://t.co/tvYmjpe5Du At a private dinner with Trump allies last week Treasury Secretary. Scott Bessent threatened to punch housing finance official Bill Pulte in the fing face Politico reports. Bessent had heard from several people that Pulte was"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Any new prime minister in France would face the same fundamental issue that Barnier and Bayrou faced namely a hopelessly divided parliament between the left right and center. Macron could also call another snap parliamentary election or resign himself triggering an early presidential election. No good options for him. 🚨 BREAKING: French lawmakers have toppled PM Franois Bayrous minority government thrusting the country deeper into a political crisis that will force President Macron to name a fifth premier in less than two years. Read the full story: https://t.co/suBjuFJu7Q"
X Link 2025-09-08T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"In the end the markets were right - the Labour Party looks very likely to have won the most seats in Norway and along with its Red Bloc allies seems to have secured a narrow majority in the legislature. But the populist Progress Party finished in a strong second and outperformed polls (which had them at 21%). They are another example of rising right-wing populism across Europe joining parties like Reform UK and National Rally in France in usurping traditional conservatives as the dominant force on the right despite not being in power (yet) Norway 95% of the votes counted: National parliament"
X Link 2025-09-08T23:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"-1 Democratic house seat incoming Dems best shot of countering this is probably in Utah of all places where the state Supreme Court ordered a redraw that likely leaves one Dem-leaning seat around Salt Lake City Missouri state House advances new 7-1 congressional map in 89-63 vote. Some Republicans voted against the map the speaker was one of them. https://t.co/GgkpTifGZx Missouri state House advances new 7-1 congressional map in 89-63 vote. Some Republicans voted against the map the speaker was one of them. https://t.co/GgkpTifGZx"
X Link 2025-09-09T02:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Keep in mind that confirming lower level executive nominees is currently a 2-step process: 1: Break the filibuster to end debate and begin voting (currently needs [--] votes) 2: Vote on the actual nominee (only needs [--] votes) By using an intricate parliamentary procedure Thune will set a new rules precedent that lower level nominees only need [--] votes to be confirmed in batches. If this goes through it will erode the filibuster by creating another carve-out in what can be filibustered and chips away at the minority party's ability to slow down the Senate majority. This would be the third"
X Link 2025-09-09T19:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"2013: Democrats under Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for cabinet-level and most judicial nominees (excluding Supreme Court) 2017: Republicans under Mitch McConnell eliminated it for Supreme Court nominees Ultimately why is this important It continues the trend of eroding minority party rights in the Senate. Both parties have chipped away at the filibuster when it became inconvenient to their agenda reflecting the increasingly polarized political environment. While the main filibuster for legislation remains intact for now it looks increasingly isolated and the question may soon become"
X Link 2025-09-09T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Is Vox about to overtake PP as the main right-wing party in Spain Would follow a growing trend in Europe of the populist right beating out traditional conservatives in recent years (France UK Norway Netherlands etc.) Spain CIS poll: PSOE-S&D: 33% (+6) PP-EPP: 24% (-3) VOX-PfE: 17% (-2) Sumar-LEFTG/EFA: 8% Podemos-LEFT: 4% ERC-G/EFA: 2% SALF-ECRNI: 2% EH Bildu-LEFT: 1% Junts-NI: 1% BNG-G/EFA: 1% EAJ PNV-RE: 1% CC-RE: 0% UPN-*: 0% +/- vs. 01-07 July [----] Fieldwork: 01-06 September [----] https://t.co/CAsBjE3Nnj Spain CIS poll: PSOE-S&D: 33% (+6) PP-EPP: 24% (-3) VOX-PfE: 17% (-2) Sumar-LEFTG/EFA:"
X Link 2025-09-11T23:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@StatisticUrban Wait this implies at least one gay couple in Loving County Texas (for those that dont know least populous county in America like [--] people live there)"
X Link 2025-09-12T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Conservative Party in Norway in crisis after winning just half the seats that the populist right Progress Party won (the reverse was true in the [----] elections) #Norway: Erna Solberg have announced that she will resign as leader of the Conservative Party (H). This follows the poor result her party received in the election held on Monday. (It was the worst result for H since 2005) She served as leader of her party since [----] and as https://t.co/n7v1R73nOY #Norway: Erna Solberg have announced that she will resign as leader of the Conservative Party (H). This follows the poor result her party"
X Link 2025-09-12T22:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Contrast this with the delivery in Mallory McMorrows NFL game day ad You deserve better. Here in Michigan we understand just how important our union workers are. Thats why Im fighting for you with my UAW Job Protection Act. https://t.co/IzD9zRhj7j You deserve better. Here in Michigan we understand just how important our union workers are. Thats why Im fighting for you with my UAW Job Protection Act. https://t.co/IzD9zRhj7j"
X Link 2025-09-13T05:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"North Rhine-Westphalia the most populous German state (home to Cologne Dsseldorf and almost 25% of all Germans) just held its local and municipal elections. For comparison heres how each party did in the Federal election in NRW earlier this year. CDU/CSU: 30% SPD: 20% AfF: 17% Grne: 12% Linke: 8% FDP: 4% BSW: 4% Takeaway: the far-right AfD holds its gains in the state but does not sweep the local races. The exit poll https://t.co/Inuxm3iRId The exit poll https://t.co/Inuxm3iRId"
X Link 2025-09-14T22:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Lots of House Republicans retiring in a Trump midterm would usually be a sign of an impending blue wave but the difference is these Reps are not in competitive districts. This time it might be more reflective of how dysfunctional Congress is with lawmakers deciding its too draining / dangerous to stay in office. BREAKING: Texas Republican Rep. Michael McCaul announced on @ThisWeekABC that he will not seek reelection in [----]. It's been an honor to serve for over two decades in the Congress. Im looking now for a new challenge. Read more: https://t.co/4zQmchkZaj https://t.co/DJYCDJurjf BREAKING:"
X Link 2025-09-14T23:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This is a huge domino to fall. Governor Hochul along with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senators Schumer and Gillibrand were among the prominent NY Dems to not have endorsed Mamdani. The odds for Jeffries and Schumer to endorse have shot up as well showing traders believe they will likely follow Hochuls lead soon. Also Adams odds of dropping out have risen above 80% again as the Dem establishment falls behind Mamdani instead of the incumbent mayor. New York City deserves a mayor who will stand up to Donald Trump and make life more affordable for New Yorkers. Thats"
X Link 2025-09-15T00:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@socdemAdam I love all the creative coalition names in Germany"
X Link 2025-09-15T00:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Kathy Hochul has outperformed NVIDIA this year. If you put $100 in NVIDIA at the start of the year youd have $129 now. But if you put $100 in Kathy Hochul in the [----] NY Gov Dem nominee market youd have $200 now. Hochuls recent tone shift on everything from ICE to free school meals to redistricting to this endorsement has likely helped her lock down the Democratic nomination. NEWS New York Governor Kathy Hochul has endorsed Zohran Mamdani for New York City Mayor. Full Story: https://t.co/cCM1lFSLEh https://t.co/TwuhiFNxiY NEWS New York Governor Kathy Hochul has endorsed Zohran Mamdani for New"
X Link 2025-09-15T01:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RepThomasMassie On September [--] there will be a special election for AZ-07. According to @Kalshi Democrat Adelita Grijalva will very likely win and be the 218th vote"
X Link 2025-09-15T03:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Conor McGregor withdraws from the Irish presidential race. In Ireland to secure a place on the presidential ballot you need to be nominated either by: 1) At least [--] members of the Oireachtas (Irelands parliament) out of [---] total 2) At least [--] of Irelands [--] city or county councils 3) A sitting or former president can also nominate themselves McGregor was not on track to secure enough support from either of the first two options. But he does raise a good question: do these standards give too much power to people already in government Muintir na hireann a chairde Ghaeil I recently announced"
X Link 2025-09-15T05:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Today (Sept 16) is election day in Malawi Heres a quick recap of where things stand going into the Southern African nations presidential and legislative elections: Malawi has a fascinating recent electoral history. During its last presidential election in [----] the countrys Constitutional Court overturned the results due to evidence of irregularities and vote tampering (Tipp-Ex correctional fluid may have been involved). In the [----] re-run of the annulled election opposition leader Lazurus Chakwera defeated incumbent president Peter Mutharika by [--] points in an election hailed as a triumph of"
X Link 2025-09-16T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Today I learned that the Forward Party (started by @AndrewYang) actually has one elected official this Utah state senator. Which means it already has more Federal/state elected officials than either the Libertarian or Green parties lol #NEW: Utah state Senator Daniel Thatcher of the Forward Party has proposed a Utah congressional map. The Forward Party is not taking an official position on the map but does support Thatcher presenting boundary options for review and comment. https://t.co/79CpjaE4Ae https://t.co/m1wPmENsuT #NEW: Utah state Senator Daniel Thatcher of the Forward Party has"
X Link 2025-09-18T20:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 Wow shes rly just throwing shade at the entire [----] Dem primary field"
X Link 2025-09-18T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stephen_neukam Platner has a lot of hype but it will still be tough to beat an incumbent governor Mills odds have been surging as she signals shes likely to enter. A long and brutal primary though would only help Collins"
X Link 2025-09-20T01:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"1) Hard to disentangle enthusiasm gaps from vote patterns shifting back closer to normal post Covid. 2) Good time to remind people that Pennsylvania has a bunch of court elections this November including retention elections for [--] Democratic Supreme Court justices. Pennsylvania Early Vote Ballot Requests [--] Weeks Before Election Day [----] 🔴GOP: [------] (28.2%) 🔵Dems: [------] (71.7%) [----] 🔴GOP: [------] (25.5%) 🔵Dems: [-------] (74.4%) [----] 🔴GOP: [------] (22.2%) 🔵Dems: [------] (77.9%) [----] 🔴GOP: [------] (21.4%) 🔵Dems: [------] Pennsylvania Early Vote Ballot Requests [--] Weeks Before Election Day 2025"
X Link 2025-09-20T03:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"San Diego white voters being more liberal the the city itself is still surprising to me"
X Link 2025-09-20T06:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@bluestein Including for the [--] Public Service Commission races"
X Link 2025-09-20T06:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 This one is also likely not competitive but 1) the margin is interesting to see if Dems continue their overperformances or not and 2) if Adelita Grijalva wins she could be the 218th signature on the Epstein discharge petition"
X Link 2025-09-20T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Tom Homan coming soon to this market BREAKING In an undercover operation last year the FBI recorded Tom Homan now the White House border czar accepting $50000 in cash after indicating he could help the agents who were posing as business executives win government contracts in a second Trump administration. https://t.co/xNmsn9v3hF BREAKING In an undercover operation last year the FBI recorded Tom Homan now the White House border czar accepting $50000 in cash after indicating he could help the agents who were posing as business executives win government contracts in a second Trump"
X Link 2025-09-21T00:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Keep in mind for Pennsylvania this fall there are: [--] Supreme Court retention elections (all Democrats up for retention) [--] Superior Court judicial election (D vs R) [--] Commonwealth Court judicial election (D vs R) Lots of action this November that may be flying under the radar Seeing a lot of attention for the Supreme Court retention in Pennsylvania. IMO all justices are safe to be retained. In the last [--] years every judge up for retention has been retained by at least [--] points and most have been retained by 30+ points. Seeing a lot of attention for the Supreme Court retention in"
X Link 2025-09-21T04:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Some polls are showing a fairly close race for the most seats in the upcoming Netherlands election but our markets still have the PVV as a decent favorite so far Netherlands Peil poll: Seat projection PVV-PfE: [--] (+1) GL/PvdA-G/EFAS&D: [--] (-2) CDA-EPP: [--] (-2) VVD-RE: [--] (+1) D66-RE: [--] (+2) JA21ECR: [--] (+1) SP-LEFT: [--] FvD-ESN: [--] BBB-EPP: [--] (-2) DENK-*: [--] PvdD-LEFT: [--] SGP-ECR: [--] CU-EPP: [--] Volt-G/EFA: [--] 50PLUS-RE: [--] (+1) NSC-EPP: [--] https://t.co/8zBticVp3O Netherlands Peil poll: Seat projection PVV-PfE: [--] (+1) GL/PvdA-G/EFAS&D: [--] (-2) CDA-EPP: [--] (-2) VVD-RE: [--] (+1) D66-RE: [--] (+2) JA21ECR:"
X Link 2025-09-21T05:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Dont forget that Georgia has [--] statewide Public Service Commission races this fall and theyre both partisan (D vs R) races This is the defining issue in the Georgia statewide races happening in November: https://t.co/IJdIs53EUB (Yes Georgia has statewide races this fall Its one of just [--] states electing statewide officials tho everyone is sleeping on this.) This is the defining issue in the Georgia statewide races happening in November: https://t.co/IJdIs53EUB (Yes Georgia has statewide races this fall Its one of just [--] states electing statewide officials tho everyone is sleeping on this.)"
X Link 2025-09-21T16:11Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"This is an internal poll so take with lots of salt. But its undeniable that sentiment on how well Sherrill will do has shifted in recent weeks. Last week she was at 28% chance to win by 14% or more the likeliest margin. Now traders think theres a 54% chance she ekes out a win by [--] points or less. [----] New Jersey Governor Race Poll 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 46% (+1) 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 45% National Research (🔴) Internal 9/16-18 https://t.co/7AnnofkUlC [----] New Jersey Governor Race Poll 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 46% (+1) 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 45% National Research (🔴) Internal 9/16-18"
X Link 2025-09-21T18:07Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements

"@TheSonOfWalkley Chances that Elon creates a new party have plummeted since the summer"
X Link 2025-09-21T22:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Taniel If Adelita Grijalva wins in AZ-07 she would also likely be the 218th signature on the Epstein discharge petition"
X Link 2025-09-21T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Seeing a lot of takes on the NJ Governors race about how the debate last night was bad for Sherrill however markets have remained fairly stable so far"
X Link 2025-09-22T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@josh_metcalf @ZacharyDonnini Would be interesting to see how correlated the native Hawaiian vote is with the results in Guam Harris also only won the straw poll there by [--] points"
X Link 2025-09-23T03:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Today (Sept 23) is the special election for Arizonas 7th congressional district AZ-07 stretches across the Arizona-Mexico border from western Tucson to Yuma. Its strongly blue Harris won it by 22%. While Democrat Adelita Grijalva has a very high chance to win the race to replace her father the late Rep. Ral Grijalva there are [--] key things Im watching: 1) The margin: Democrats had been on a special election outperformance streak but that was snapped last week in Minnesota. Can Grijalva outperform Harris margin or has the national environment shifted 2) Epstein: Rep. Massies discharge petition"
X Link 2025-09-23T13:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"There are big Epstein ramifications for this election in AZ-07. Another interesting question is how much will Adelita Grijalva win by Harris won by [--] but that was an 11% underperformance vs Biden. Polls have shown Trumps approval slipping massively with Hispanics but will that actually play out in the votes in this majority-Hispanic border district Trumps trying everything to distract the public & media right now. But today theres a special election in safely blue AZ-07 where Adelita Grijalva (D) will be elected & become vote the clinching vote on the discharge petition to release the"
X Link 2025-09-23T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Traders seem confident that Adelita Grijalva will overperform Harris [--] point margin in AZ-07. The most likely outcome currently is a Dem margin of victory between [--] and 40% an overperformance of 13-18% Its Election Day Two exciting races take place in Arizona and Georgia. - Arizonas 7th Congressional District Special Election - Georgias State Senate [--] Runoff https://t.co/hbOOgYOUyU Its Election Day Two exciting races take place in Arizona and Georgia. - Arizonas 7th Congressional District Special Election - Georgias State Senate [--] Runoff https://t.co/hbOOgYOUyU"
X Link 2025-09-23T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@OpenSourceZone As expected but a substantial overperformance over Harris in this majority Hispanic district"
X Link 2025-09-24T03:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Currently Adelita Grijalva has a lead of [--] points in the AZ-07 special election. But our margin market is split on whether shell win by over or under [--] points. Why is that Its because in Arizona Election Day vote is typically counted later and it skews more Republican. So some traders are predicting that the E-day vote will be red enough to push her margin down. Well see if that happens but fascinating to see how people are thinking about expectations of future votes in real time AP has called #AZ07 for @AdelitaForAZ AP has called #AZ07 for @AdelitaForAZ"
X Link 2025-09-24T03:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Another interesting thing Im watching turnout for this race has not been significantly higher than the primaries so far. There were around [-----] votes cast in the Dem primary here. With 80% reporting Adelita Grijalva is winning a little over [-----] votes. Not sure what it looked like on the ground but sure seems like this general election still ended up attracting mainly the highest propensity voters. Decision Desk HQ projects Adelita Grijalva to win the US House special election in Arizona's 7th congressional district. #DecisionMade: 11:01 pm ET https://t.co/pMGR7YSPje Decision Desk HQ"
X Link 2025-09-24T03:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Traders are getting increasing bullish that Adelita Grijalvas 43% margin wont end up below 40%. The Election Day vote was still much more Republican than the early vote the Republican won the Election Day vote in a county that had voted for Grijalva by [--] points The catch There were barely any Eday votes. If that pattern is repeated across the district the Eday vote may not make as much of a difference as in past elections. just [---] election day votes in Cochise (4131 were mail/early). Netted just [--] GOP votes 🔴 Butierez [---] 🔵 Grijalva [---] Total votes in Cochise: 🔵 Grijalva [----] 🔴"
X Link 2025-09-24T04:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Speaking of the Epstein files Adelita Grijalva (the winner of tonights AZ-07 special election) could be vote [---] on the discharge petition to force a House vote on the release of those files. Special elections can have big ramifications Kimmel: "He might have to release the Epstein files to distract us from this now." https://t.co/tCOEBq9vSi Kimmel: "He might have to release the Epstein files to distract us from this now." https://t.co/tCOEBq9vSi"
X Link 2025-09-24T04:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@atrupar The House could soon reach [---] signatures to force a vote on the release of the Epstein files"
X Link 2025-09-24T04:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Trumps chances of release Epstein files before December [----] have actually gone up [--] points in the last hour from 44% to 49%. Kimmel: "He might have to release the Epstein files to distract us from this now." https://t.co/tCOEBq9vSi Kimmel: "He might have to release the Epstein files to distract us from this now." https://t.co/tCOEBq9vSi"
X Link 2025-09-24T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Grijalvas margin is down a point to 42%. Still waiting on Election Day votes in Maricopa and Pima county the two most populous counties in the district. Traders are still confident that based on the early vote drops in other counties Grijalvas final margin will end up at least 40%. We are receiving our first Election Day votes from #AZ07 (Yuma County): 🔵 Adelita Grijalva (D) - 70.6% (58046) 🔴 Daniel Butierez (R) - 27.6% (22709) ⚪ Other - 1.8% (1438) https://t.co/xS4hak4x1C We are receiving our first Election Day votes from #AZ07 (Yuma County): 🔵 Adelita Grijalva (D) - 70.6% (58046) 🔴"
X Link 2025-09-24T04:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This area of the state the populous suburbs / exurbs north of Atlanta are the biggest vote baskets for Georgia Republicans. In [----] Trump won [--] counties in this area Cherokee and Forsyth by a combined [------] votes. That was almost his entire margin of victory in the state. Any further slippage here would be very costly for Georgia Republicans. Georgia SD [--] Special Election: GOP win 95% Reporting per @DecisionDeskHQ 🔴 Jason Dickerson: 61.5% (19061) 🔵 Debra Shigley: 38.5% (11950) This is on track for a [--] point Democratic overperformance from [----] when Trump won the district by 34."
X Link 2025-09-24T05:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"All counties in AZ-07 are reporting at least some E-day vote now (Some have reported all) As expected Adelita Grijalvas margin shrank from those Eday votes and she currently leads by 38.7% I believe all the remaining ballots will be either late mail or from ballot dropboxes (but @Garrett_Archer correct me if Im wrong here) Question is whether those votes will be blue enough to cross the 40% margin threshold"
X Link 2025-09-24T05:55Z [---] followers, 19.1K engagements

"Wow 87% of the vote in AZ-07 is now in and Adelita Grijalva is up by 38.8% Big question for traders now is will the remaining 13% of the vote (mostly dropoffs and absentees) be enough to boost her margin by that extra 1.2% A lot of uncertainty there roughly even split of whether that happens. Keep in mind the remaining votes could take several days to count"
X Link 2025-09-24T07:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Folks this market is starting to move and its getting way more national attention now. Some polls show it tied but traders still favor Sherrill for now. Could New Jersey Gov be the closest election of [----] Trump comments on poll showing virtual tie in New Jersey governors race: https://t.co/KzgrwED62W Trump comments on poll showing virtual tie in New Jersey governors race: https://t.co/KzgrwED62W"
X Link 2025-09-25T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Traders now very confident that New Jerseys governors race will be closer than Virginias this fall. Its striking given these states voted near identically in the [----] election. BUT New Jersey trended right a lot more than Virginia that cycle. Emerson poll 9/22-9/23 LV New Jersey Governor 🟦Mikie Sherrill 43.3% 🟥Jack Ciattarelli 42.9% Someone else 3.0% Undecided 10.8% https://t.co/bdtyyHGY7t Emerson poll 9/22-9/23 LV New Jersey Governor 🟦Mikie Sherrill 43.3% 🟥Jack Ciattarelli 42.9% Someone else 3.0% Undecided 10.8% https://t.co/bdtyyHGY7t"
X Link 2025-09-25T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Its Election Day in the Seychelles Africas smallest country is an idyllic tourist haven and one of the wealthiest African nations by GDP per Capita. But not all is well in paradise and this week the Seychellois will head to the polls to decide their next president in a country wracked by a drug addiction crisis. Another key issue in the election is the governments recent decision to allow luxury hotel development on an island near a UNESCO marine reserve leading to environmental and national sovereignty concerns. The two leading candidates in this election are incumbent president Wavel"
X Link 2025-09-25T16:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"This race has not moved toward Earle-Sears at all in recent weeks. Everything going on in New Jersey seems to be localized shows you the importance of candidate quality on both sides Who said it better: Abigail Spanberger or Emperor Palpatine https://t.co/XYZBVYpQ7i Who said it better: Abigail Spanberger or Emperor Palpatine https://t.co/XYZBVYpQ7i"
X Link 2025-09-28T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@umichvoter Wine cave takes me back to the [----] primary debates"
X Link 2025-09-28T01:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"lol fun fact Pavels opponent in the [----] Czech election Andrej Babi is the favorite at the moment to be the next Czech Prime Minister The President of the Czech Republic reposted this on his Instagram account. https://t.co/mMBMGFZg6V The President of the Czech Republic reposted this on his Instagram account. https://t.co/mMBMGFZg6V"
X Link 2025-09-28T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"54% chance that the government shuts down Wednesday. Dipped a bit on the news that congressional leaders would meet with President Trump but traders arent sure if that will produce any sort of deal. High-stakes meeting Monday as congressional leaders meet with President Trump ahead of a looming shutdown. I spoke w/ the president this morning will share what I've learned on that front and others at 10:30 a.m. ET on @FaceTheNation w/ @margbrennan High-stakes meeting Monday as congressional leaders meet with President Trump ahead of a looming shutdown. I spoke w/ the president this morning will"
X Link 2025-09-28T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats most notable to me isnt the Adams number on the chart. Its that Curtis Sliwas chances to drop out also jumped from 8% to 20% reflecting traders belief that pressure will now mount on him to follow Adams lead and exit the race. BREAKING: Mayor Eric Adams is dropping out of New York Citys mayoral race amid escalating pressure to clear the crowded field in a last-ditch attempt to stop socialist Zohran Mamdanis election to City Hall. https://t.co/tn2FB9eGgk BREAKING: Mayor Eric Adams is dropping out of New York Citys mayoral race amid escalating pressure to clear the crowded field in a"
X Link 2025-09-28T17:59Z [----] followers, 62.4K engagements

"@PopCrave 82% chance that Zohran wins but 100% chance the debate will be less funny with Adams gone"
X Link 2025-09-28T22:31Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements

"Pretty clear east west divide here actually The [----] presidential election among nonwhite voters according to @VoteHubUS 🔵 Kamala Harris: [--------] 68.2% [---] EVs 🔴 Donald Trump: [--------] 31.8% [--] EVs https://t.co/Evngn5EWcp The [----] presidential election among nonwhite voters according to @VoteHubUS 🔵 Kamala Harris: [--------] 68.2% [---] EVs 🔴 Donald Trump: [--------] 31.8% [--] EVs https://t.co/Evngn5EWcp"
X Link 2025-09-28T23:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Not sure if this poll was sponsored by the GOP or a related group at all but definitely in their best interests to build the narrative / momentum that Jack is rapidly making NJ Gov a tossup race Valcour/Save Jersey poll 9/23-9/24 LV New Jersey Governor 🟦Mikie Sherrill 47% 🟥Jack Ciattarelli 45% Undecided/unsure 7% (GOP affiliated poll) https://t.co/qzzzG8ohVn Valcour/Save Jersey poll 9/23-9/24 LV New Jersey Governor 🟦Mikie Sherrill 47% 🟥Jack Ciattarelli 45% Undecided/unsure 7% (GOP affiliated poll) https://t.co/qzzzG8ohVn"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ZacharyDonnini @VoteHubUS Yeah I figured it was the Irish and Portuguese shifts I guess I didnt realize how many of them there were (relative to the Boston suburb WASPs) to cause the largest shift rightward"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The longest U.S. government shutdown in history was [--] days in 2018-2019. This time Democratic voters are much less likely to want compromise than in previous shutdowns. Traders on Kalshi believe there is a 12% chance that the shutdown exceeds [--] days setting a new record. [--] big shift between this shutdown & prior ones The public seems far more willing to accept one. Democrats in particular are far more likely to want their folks to stand on principle (47%) this go around than in [----] (18%). Dems who want a compromise Down from 76% to 52%. https://t.co/58H9B4j9tw [--] big shift between this"
X Link 2025-10-01T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Polling Wall Street weather forecasting what other industries will prediction markets be more accurate then Our traders had the closest forecast of [------] Kalshi Wall Street estimates https://t.co/HEOIMRq7Mz Our traders had the closest forecast of [------] Kalshi Wall Street estimates https://t.co/HEOIMRq7Mz"
X Link 2025-10-02T13:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ClayTravis Not just sports and politics traders can often be more accurate than even Wall Street analysts"
X Link 2025-10-02T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"By the way after a small dip Zohrans chances to win in our market are back to where they were before Adams dropped out. New York City I can see a future with you. And its one we can afford. Our new ad just aired during The Golden Bachelor. https://t.co/N8dRJpWmRb New York City I can see a future with you. And its one we can afford. Our new ad just aired during The Golden Bachelor. https://t.co/N8dRJpWmRb"
X Link 2025-10-02T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Delgado will try to run to Hochuls left in the NY Gov primary but Hochuls recent rhetoric and shifts left (including endorsing Mamdani) has helped her grow her lead in the Democratic primary market New York deserves a leader who will fight for the people not a talker who capitulates to Trump. https://t.co/riDbi4gE8c New York deserves a leader who will fight for the people not a talker who capitulates to Trump. https://t.co/riDbi4gE8c"
X Link 2025-10-03T17:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Another rough headline for Democratic Virginia AG candidate Jay Jones. Because of this and the speeding conviction incumbent AG Jason Miyares is now the Republican most likely to win statewide this November at 23% chance. By contrast traders have GOP Gov nominee Earle-Sears and LG nominee Reid at single digit probabilities to win at the moment. SCOOP: In [--] Jay JonesDems [--] AG nomsent a VA lawmaker texts joking about shooting VAGOP Speaker Todd Gilbert🧵 put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time he said in texts obtained by @NRO"
X Link 2025-10-03T18:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Likely rematch coming in the MO-01 (mostly St. Louis City) Dem primary between Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush Today my former opponent Cori Bush entered the race for Congress. Thats her right and in our democracy everyone gets a say. But heres the simple truth: Missouri voters already rendered their verdict when they voted her out of office last year and chose to move on. 🧵 Today my former opponent Cori Bush entered the race for Congress. Thats her right and in our democracy everyone gets a say. But heres the simple truth: Missouri voters already rendered their verdict when they"
X Link 2025-10-03T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DjsokeSpeaking I feel like given this recent news its almost certain that AG will be uniquely targeted and likely wont converge"
X Link 2025-10-03T20:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"BIG movement in our VA AG market Jones plummets from 80% chance of winning to just 44%. For the first time trader see incumbent GOP AG Miyares as favored to win. A joint statement from @SenLouiseLucas and @SenatorLocke https://t.co/vKsqrVEO8Z A joint statement from @SenLouiseLucas and @SenatorLocke https://t.co/vKsqrVEO8Z"
X Link 2025-10-04T02:34Z [----] followers, 62.9K engagements

"Female Japanese prime minister before GTA [--] Can't believe Japan got a female prime minister and de facto gay marriage in [--] hours Can't believe Japan got a female prime minister and de facto gay marriage in [--] hours"
X Link 2025-10-04T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Yesterday and today voters in the Czech Republic decide all [---] seats in their Chamber of Deputies and their next Prime Minister The leading candidate is a right-wing populist billionaire who previously led the government from [----] to [----] and is now looking to make a political comeback amidst a criminal fraud case. Sound familiar That man Andrej Babi leads the ANO party and is running to reclaim the prime minister spot after losing the [----] parliamentary elections in an upset to a conservative-liberal alliance led by current Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. That alliance included two"
X Link 2025-10-04T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 Tbh Ohio Dems dont have many other options to run statewide the bench is pretty decimated"
X Link 2025-10-04T23:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@nexta_tv Can someone please explain what the motorist party has against bike lanes"
X Link 2025-10-05T03:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"This used to be the reddest county in Michigan (just west of Grand Rapids) but in the Trump era its sort of followed the Waukesha County path towards Democrats (theyve been voting pretty near identically actually) What's up Ottawa County https://t.co/qSDLxoGshL What's up Ottawa County https://t.co/qSDLxoGshL"
X Link 2025-10-05T03:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@_johnnymaga Jay Jones wont drop out hed still be on the ballot anyway. This race is a tossup at the moment"
X Link 2025-10-05T03:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

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