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@ShaleTier7 Avatar @ShaleTier7 Michael Spyker

Michael Spyker posts on X about gas, ai, if you, build a the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XXXXX% stocks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% countries XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% currencies XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% celebrities XXXX%

Social topic influence gas #961, ai 7.06%, if you 3.53%, build a 2.35%, the first 2.35%, llm #103, gpu 2.35%, stocks 2.35%, ford 2.35%, juan #155

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @defisurfer808 @gridgodajey @notjaso79646447 @nicequarterguys @citrini7 @sandbrandyn @war527 @a16z @andrewcarter @nvidia @googles @browsingatwork @xiaowang1984 @mailboxmoney6 @st77080173 @juliantrev78186 @billro1000 @termpowertrader @wmitchell618 @jnconkle

Top assets mentioned Ovintiv, Inc. (OVV) Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"The natural gas thesis is actually so simple. And Im not using whether related volatility to get ahead of myself here. The data centre guys will take every single molecule up to $5-7/MMBtu. The LNG exporters (international buyers) will take every single molecule up to $5-6/MMBtu. Both are building infrastructure like the others dont exist so there is competition for supply now there has never in the history of shale gas been competition for supply. If you think Henry Hub is going to $10-20/MMBtu youre an idiot. If you think the AI data centre thing is just a bubble youre an idiot. And if you"
X Link 2025-12-05T18:29Z 2631 followers, 180.6K engagements

"Me participating in a $48MM Western Haynesville AFE at $3.35/Mcf Henry Hub"
X Link 2025-11-21T03:08Z 2629 followers, 4832 engagements

"That's right at a high level my framework is; - US exporters will not recover all their capital in the time-frame they expected (i.e. non-fixed cargos will be sold at a netback rate that is less than they'd need to earn say a XX% IRR) - Utilization will be lower yes but exports are largely under tolling or fixed-price SPAs (35-45% each) with 10-15% of cargos being spot (increasing with time but I'd also note that tolling/SPAs export certainty. It's just an option to buy the gas but there's a sunk cost - I don't think LNG demand needs to grow at 10%/yr nor do I think it will come anywhere"
X Link 2025-12-06T01:24Z 2629 followers, 3015 engagements

"Franklin could count by twos and tie his shoes. He bought up winter gas on polar vortex news. He thought 'this time is different' levering up But soon the temps warmed and AI enthusiasm faded Then Goldman called "Franklin you're getting liquidated""
X Link 2025-12-06T20:41Z 2628 followers, 39.7K engagements

"This is like me saying -- "in every way dating Sydney Sweeney from a first principles perspective are superior to being single" I mean it's true but boy there are some fairly robust embedded assumptions in there"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:39Z 2628 followers, 5861 engagements

"@notjaso79646447 @andrew_carter Cause you have to pay over half a billion dollars to build a new factory for something that can have negative unit economics when competitors expand their own supply chains Its not that simple"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:40Z 2630 followers, XX engagements

"@notjaso79646447 @andrew_carter I dont know how much this contributes to their aircraft but if they wanted operating results why not just build X or X without building a new $0.5Bn plant. X turbines would cost $30mm a year to run 24/7 and the power would likely have positive unit economics"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:49Z 2626 followers, XX engagements

"The current data center discourse summarized"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:27Z 2631 followers, 19.8K engagements

"Meet in the middle. Wildcat for gas in the Arctic Circle and put Data Centers there instead. No cooling costs (Arctic Circle) lots of land and water (nobody lives there) extremely cheap energy (gas). Cool as fuck ✅"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:52Z 2633 followers, 7399 engagements

"@Dylan_Morri Not really imo that's 24x 9HA units in a 2x1 combined cycle configuration and XXX Bcf/d of gas. Extremely attainable and ridiculously efficient"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:57Z 2627 followers, XXX engagements

"Enverus new gas outlook says 2030 L48 production to XXXXX Bcf/d and domestic demand -XXX Bcf/d over that period. WHAT domestic demand declining I think they're legitimately probably XX Bcf/d too light on apparent demand (ex-MX) in X years time"
X Link 2025-12-04T19:49Z 2561 followers, 3923 engagements

"Of course we can express these figures in stocks (reserves/resource) or flows (Bcf/d right-sized) -- but it's all fundamentally driven by the geology and there has been a point that we've promised too much gas to too many things -- despite people saying there's unlimited gas (maybe very true) there's also a cost to drill that gas. Like the Haynesville where breakevens aren't a vibe they're easily calculable"
X Link 2025-12-07T00:34Z 2561 followers, XXX engagements

"No my price is a function of marginal cost -- but my growth outlook isn't based on a lowest-breakeven-first-to-grow outlook which I think is wrong when talking about multiple Bcf/d the bottleneck is based on at what price can relevant new assets enter the market. If you take Continental's UTL BUFFLEHEAD 2040A 01H or UTL RATTLESNAKE 2413A 01H I guarantee you in any well model the breakeven price would be $1/MMBtu Waha. But I'm sorry I just don't see Continental growing that asset $3/MMBtu plantgate which is $4/MMBtu HH assuming marketers don't give (they will). Which sour plants are they going"
X Link 2025-12-07T01:42Z 2561 followers, 2128 engagements

"And the number on that I have 8-9 Bcf/d and that's certainly not in the $3-4 range it's well above $X NYMEX. I've listed the assets below but I don't think I've missed any assets that can sustain 10-15+ years of output -- let me know if I have. San Juan (0.8 almost all between Hilcorp and Logos) Downdip Eagle Ford (1.1-1.4 mostly between Conoco BPX Lewis Repsol Crescent) Austin Chalk (2.2-2.4 mostly EOG and SM and minor Magnolia Verdun Mitsui Lewis and Crescent) net of Kimmeridge assets (that's going to Commonwealth LNG) Green River (0.3-0.5 from pretty much just Jonah and PureWest) DJ and"
X Link 2025-12-07T02:54Z 2565 followers, 2397 engagements

"No I called out the "plays that I mentioned" and that you said could get to 15-20 Bcf/d. if we go back above the San Juan Austin Chalk and Downdip Eagle Ford were already accounted for but you've not actually provided any solid estimates/growth allocations just hand wavey "it's economic at $3-4 in size". I don't think we're doing Rockies Mancos and Moorefield at $3.50-$4.00. Either way it's clear we're pretty far apart I appreciate the views even if we don't agree"
X Link 2025-12-07T17:24Z 2564 followers, 2213 engagements

"Congratulations to all the new "long term investors" in natural gas. Welcome 🥳"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:28Z 2621 followers, 13.6K engagements

"REQUEST FOR STARTUP: a company that builds earth data centers but says they're in space and pockets the $XX billion difference in launch costs"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:36Z 2632 followers, 2581 engagements

"why stop at space data centers who's working on space spirit halloweens"
X Link 2025-12-11T00:59Z 2632 followers, 2792 engagements

"$OVV BUYING $NVA SELLING ANADARKO"
X Link 2025-11-04T22:01Z 2484 followers, 7736 engagements

"My favourite thing about Venture Global is you can calculate how their operating leverage could potentially destroy them with XXX seconds a sticky note and a XX digit calculator but somehow the bulls refuse to do this math. Dont worry Ill do it for you below"
X Link 2025-12-03T02:41Z 2429 followers, 195.7K engagements

"27 MTPA Plaquemines XX MTPA CP2 XX MTPA Calcasieu Pass Disclosed cost of $28Bn for all of CP2 and currently $8Bn spent. $20Bn more capital. Current debt is $XX Bn so $50Bn debt give or take (ignores minor interim cashflow but thats paid out via dividends). XX MTPA of capacity is XX Bcf/d at XX% utilization is XXXXX Tcf a year of exports. $50Bn of debt at XXXX% is $3.875Bn a year in financing charges and all-in corporate midstream shipping and liquefaction operating costs are $0.40/Mcf and at XXXXX Tcf/yr thats $1.386Bn/yr So all in to service your debt pay your people and run your business"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:22Z 2436 followers, 1576 engagements

"And I appreciate you are saying old designs need $XXXX but if you could also point me towards the PE group or PubCo thats growing multiple Bcf/d on a $X deck and underwriting full improvement and no alpha that would be good. If the old designs need $XXXX and work at $X (which I still disagree with) then whoevers buying it today is almost certainly seeking some sort of return on taking advantage of that spread. Its like the deep Haynesville near the Nach fault zone might break even on paper at $XXXX but tell me whos spending $200mm on a pad at $XXXX. Yes I agree lots turns on at $4-ish in the"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:28Z 2434 followers, 10.9K engagements

"Ya better put. Mike Sabal will syndicate $5MM with a Southern Idaho Credit Union if it means he can add XXXXX MMTPA of capacity. That's what I mean until the taps shut off that are supplying capital to build demand projects demand projects will continue to get built like a mfer. So what's a harder bet US upstream producers growing (very hard to bet against) or US capital markets continuing to supply infinity money to dumb things that don't make sense (arguably equally as hard to bet against)"
X Link 2025-12-07T21:47Z 2396 followers, XXX engagements

"@WMitchell618 I was just thinking that $3.77T GOOG should buy $0.17T NEE"
X Link 2025-12-08T18:28Z 2400 followers, XX engagements

"@SandBrandyn I'm not really commenting on single equities just an observation generally. Hard to say the GPU decline curve is overblown given we're not sure where it lands; 3-5 years is what credit providers are underwriting so that seems fair until proven otherwise"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:10Z 2400 followers, XX engagements

"The real difference is the mechanism of decline. The cashflow for both declines rapidly and is a function of (output * market price) but for shale producers it's the output declining and market price staying reasonably constant on a long horizon. For neoclouds it's the market price declining while output is more constant. Until we're at a point where market price is constant for 5-8 years (not hard to imagine one certain hardware specs are achieved like optical C2C HBM5) and the business is then direct to enterprise -- but that's a risky gamble to take when over that same time period the"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:28Z 2409 followers, XX engagements

"It feels very obvious that the people that are going to get wrecked by AI over-investment are companies making massive capital investments at the thought of "serving AI" that logically have no place in the long-run. Thinking you have earn an above average return on data centers (IREN et al) is dumb that's a cost of capital play in the long run. Retooling your supply chain to build aeroderivative turbines is dumb it's not the lowest cost gas-fired generation in the long run"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:10Z 2491 followers, 3254 engagements

"@GridGodAjey We don't need to complement intermittent renewables we want to build massive multi-gigawatt scale data centers that run on the owners accord"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:34Z 2489 followers, XXX engagements

"The only entity that would (should) ever pay a premium for $NVA stock is $OVV. The only reason someone would buy a XX% block for a premium is if they were going to eventually pay a premium for the company. That's clearly what's going to happen. It looks really good on a map but would be a bad deal -- and also raises the question; why should Ovintiv be downspacing in the Montney -- what cost of capital advantage do they have Ovintiv's Karr acquisition last year -- phenomenal very well done. $3Bn for 70000BOE/d that's very sustainable and some of the best drilling inventory in North America."
X Link 2025-09-23T00:31Z 2525 followers, 6306 engagements

"Kevin is particularly challenged at understanding ideas that are foreign to him -- in this case the Montney so in a fairly earnest manner I'm going to lay it out for the crowd. Take North America on the whole. North America likes consuming and exporting natural gas but we don't have unlimited natural gas. At one point the United States will need to turn to Canada to seek more natural gas inventory. That's a given. The wall of demand that's coming from the US L48 is fairly large and their own plays can't answer all of it not for the duration that they want (an LNG terminal is 20-40 years of"
X Link 2025-10-29T15:12Z 2532 followers, 20.7K engagements

"I think it's reasonable to say that they'll average $1.72Bn a year in unlevered FCF for the next XX years. Capital efficiency and commodity prices will normalize over a long period. That's $21Bn and the PV11.5% of that is $13Bn. Where its EV sits at today. So you're paying very little for upside that they've proven they can deliver"
X Link 2025-12-03T18:00Z 2492 followers, XXX engagements

"1.75 Bcf/d of potentially displaced gas at 7.75hr/day and 50Bcf/GW-yr Would be bad if it was 1:1 but I bet this doesn't even displace much gas given load profile minor curtail so X Bcf/d net impact. Even less impact if the ISOs allow accelerated interconnect for flexible demand from data centers"
X Link 2025-12-03T23:31Z 2553 followers, XX engagements

"Bruh this the exact same as Exxon cutting capex"
X Link 2025-12-04T15:04Z 2573 followers, 3936 engagements

"Okay so very simply where are there 15000 locations that will do XXX Bcf/1000 And dont say Marcellus/Deep Permian as thats already answering XX Bcf/d on its own. There are no holes in my coverage I used existing plays to benchmark how far off your implied assumptions are. If you can point to even 5000 undedicated locations that arent being used to maintain existing production Ill gladly accept Im wrong. Youre exactly right you need price strength and $3-4 isnt going to cut it. Thats $XXXX as you say and probably $X in reality which is what Ive asserted. You began by saying There are very few"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:23Z 2551 followers, 1919 engagements

"@WAR527 We will make 10x the money next year as we did this year"
X Link 2025-12-07T23:05Z 2551 followers, XXX engagements

"WHO SAID THERE WAS NO RETURN ON THE $X TRILLION IN DATA CENTRE CAPEX"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:01Z 2506 followers, XXX engagements

"@DeFiSurfer808 Great question -- one you should still discuss with a registered investment advisor My timeline risk tolerance sector understanding and conviction is almost certainly different than yours"
X Link 2025-12-10T02:39Z 2533 followers, XXX engagements

"Ya I appreciate this is just business and you have to take what you can get. I just think that they are likely in the end probably going to be neutral in terms of FCF on this endeavour. Their engine is 1500-1700C temps IIRC so they could maybe get to XX% before adding a bottoming cycle but if we're talking peak Carnot this favours much bigger units which would require them to build a new supply chain new plans likely new turbines"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:02Z 2562 followers, XXX engagements

"Liquefaction is more volume right now ya way more but its been developed associated gas and now to be XX% of say "OGIP-supported max growth" (when individual plants or assets are sized to match the infra life of whatever they're feeding or 15yrs). Any growth trajectory below that geologic maximum is a price-led growth trajectory. So power coming in from the bottom pushes demand closer to that max growth frontier hence the domestic consumer advantage. Even a bump that's half of gross LNG nameplate pushes cargos to be curtailed. Don't care what happens on a month to month basis but once market"
X Link 2025-12-07T00:27Z 2551 followers, XXX engagements

"2025 was the year of getting rekt owning energy equities 2026 will be the year of getting rekt owning energy equities"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:47Z 2626 followers, 14.6K engagements

"@WMitchell618 Ya but that simplification ignores that the incremental AI demand (which XXX Bcf/d is too low) is coming at the top of the demand curve (LNG isn't) and it's coming into an already right-sized market so we'll be on the less elastic supply portion of the curve in 5-7 years"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:35Z 2564 followers, XX engagements

"Nobody wants to believe it cause it's been historically the wrong thing to believe. But work backwards from just first principles. Original gas in place/recovered gas. At XXX Bcf/d of apparent demand (assumes export curtailments) we're producing XX Tcf of natural gas every year. Think about that -- XX freaking Tcf of gas. Assume a XX% recovery factor that's XXX Tcf of OGIP that needs to be produced every single year. Think about that. XXX Tcf of OGIP every single year. That's 1325 Tcf of gas recovered over XX years and 6500 Tcf of OGIP -- these freaking terminals will chug along for 80+"
X Link 2025-12-08T02:03Z 2625 followers, 1825 engagements

"$AAV compare your well results to Sunrise you cowards"
X Link 2025-12-09T22:46Z 2626 followers, 1045 engagements

"I find that DeepSeek is the best way to get data on China as an English speaker. It's hard to browse Baidu with translate on but prompting DeepSeek (English or Chinese) then translating via Gemini et al is extremely efficient especially via API where you can have it think and output extremely long lists"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:37Z 2626 followers, 3957 engagements

"Far easier to start with DeepSeek and OSM and ask for DeepSeek to estimate coordinates and you have a really workable geospatial data set in about X minutes"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:58Z 2626 followers, 2452 engagements

"Friendly reminder that $SOC EV is still US$1.7Bn 😮💨😭"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:52Z 2632 followers, 1577 engagements

"Again I think this is super cool but such a gross misallocation of resources. GE will spend $300MM adding X GW of turbine capacity and these guys are going to spend $500MM to add X GW of capacity. Not only are their turbines; more expensive less efficient not tested for continuous operations not tested for various conditions -- but it's going to take then 4-5+ years to ramp production. Now free capitalistic markets will do their thing so good they were able to pivot -- but by the time these guys start producing their inefficient turbines we're going to be in a whole different era of AI --"
X Link 2025-12-10T03:25Z 2629 followers, 26.9K engagements

"Men used to drill $XX million wildcat wells in the Arctic Circle using a slide rule and mechanical pencil. Now men go on podcasts and talk about $100Bn pre-revenue IPOs and space data centers that will never happen"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:21Z 2632 followers, 6862 engagements

"@jnconkle Sir I own three stocks and have no intention to add anything else"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:44Z 2626 followers, XXX engagements

"This has got to be the hardest Annual Report cover ever printed"
X Link 2025-12-11T04:01Z 2632 followers, 429.9K engagements

"Why do annual reports no longer have full page spreads of the lads FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING THIS BACK"
X Link 2025-12-11T04:33Z 2632 followers, 2461 engagements